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000
FXUS64 KAMA 011146 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
646 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...A SFC TROF OR WEAK DRYLINE FEATURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING SW AND GUSTY DURG THE
COURSE OF THE DAY. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET THIS
EVENING...THEN BECOME NNW TO N LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
SLIDES SWD. ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE TERMINAL SITES.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 516 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY ARE THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS /DETAILS IN FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW/ AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE
FORM OF STRENGTHENING WESTERLY FLOW AND FALLING HEIGHTS...AND A LEESIDE
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES. THE
POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE A MAJOR FACTOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP /AS IT IS FOR THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS/. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO
WEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH THE SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR
EAST..BUT HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES AS METEOROLOGICAL REASONING REMAINS SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY...THOUGH DEW POINTS MAY BE A BIT LOWER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM WELL INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S AND REDUCE CONCERNS FOR
A CAP...AND ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL
BE COOLER BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
TO THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING...THOUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND BEST FORCING WILL
REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S ON FRIDAY...AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE FOR EARLY APRIL. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

ELSENHEIMER

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO 8 TO 15 PERCENT...AND TEMPERATURES OF 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE 20FT WINDS...STILL COULD BE MARGINAL WITH THE POSITION AND
STRENGTH OF A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES. AT
ANY RATE...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS AND EXPECT SEVERAL LOCATIONS WILL
MEET THE CRITERIA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE EASTERN PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IF THIS AREA DOES
NOT REACH THE FORECASTED HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...THIS AREA
COULD ALSO SEE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ON
THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY...AND ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN BY
AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE AS THIS LOOKS TO BE THE AREA WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR MEETING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY...BRINGING A BRIEF REPRIEVE OF FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS RETURNS ON SATURDAY AND REMAINS ENTRENCHED THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...
     DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...
     MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...
     DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 011146 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
646 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...A SFC TROF OR WEAK DRYLINE FEATURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING SW AND GUSTY DURG THE
COURSE OF THE DAY. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET THIS
EVENING...THEN BECOME NNW TO N LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
SLIDES SWD. ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE TERMINAL SITES.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 516 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY ARE THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS /DETAILS IN FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW/ AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE
FORM OF STRENGTHENING WESTERLY FLOW AND FALLING HEIGHTS...AND A LEESIDE
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES. THE
POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE A MAJOR FACTOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP /AS IT IS FOR THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS/. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO
WEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH THE SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR
EAST..BUT HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES AS METEOROLOGICAL REASONING REMAINS SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY...THOUGH DEW POINTS MAY BE A BIT LOWER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM WELL INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S AND REDUCE CONCERNS FOR
A CAP...AND ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL
BE COOLER BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
TO THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING...THOUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND BEST FORCING WILL
REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S ON FRIDAY...AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE FOR EARLY APRIL. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

ELSENHEIMER

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO 8 TO 15 PERCENT...AND TEMPERATURES OF 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE 20FT WINDS...STILL COULD BE MARGINAL WITH THE POSITION AND
STRENGTH OF A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES. AT
ANY RATE...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS AND EXPECT SEVERAL LOCATIONS WILL
MEET THE CRITERIA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE EASTERN PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IF THIS AREA DOES
NOT REACH THE FORECASTED HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...THIS AREA
COULD ALSO SEE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ON
THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY...AND ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN BY
AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE AS THIS LOOKS TO BE THE AREA WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR MEETING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY...BRINGING A BRIEF REPRIEVE OF FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS RETURNS ON SATURDAY AND REMAINS ENTRENCHED THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...
     DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...
     MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...
     DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 011146 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
646 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...A SFC TROF OR WEAK DRYLINE FEATURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING SW AND GUSTY DURG THE
COURSE OF THE DAY. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET THIS
EVENING...THEN BECOME NNW TO N LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
SLIDES SWD. ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE TERMINAL SITES.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 516 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY ARE THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS /DETAILS IN FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW/ AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE
FORM OF STRENGTHENING WESTERLY FLOW AND FALLING HEIGHTS...AND A LEESIDE
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES. THE
POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE A MAJOR FACTOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP /AS IT IS FOR THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS/. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO
WEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH THE SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR
EAST..BUT HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES AS METEOROLOGICAL REASONING REMAINS SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY...THOUGH DEW POINTS MAY BE A BIT LOWER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM WELL INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S AND REDUCE CONCERNS FOR
A CAP...AND ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL
BE COOLER BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
TO THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING...THOUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND BEST FORCING WILL
REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S ON FRIDAY...AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE FOR EARLY APRIL. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

ELSENHEIMER

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO 8 TO 15 PERCENT...AND TEMPERATURES OF 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE 20FT WINDS...STILL COULD BE MARGINAL WITH THE POSITION AND
STRENGTH OF A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES. AT
ANY RATE...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS AND EXPECT SEVERAL LOCATIONS WILL
MEET THE CRITERIA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE EASTERN PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IF THIS AREA DOES
NOT REACH THE FORECASTED HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...THIS AREA
COULD ALSO SEE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ON
THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY...AND ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN BY
AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE AS THIS LOOKS TO BE THE AREA WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR MEETING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY...BRINGING A BRIEF REPRIEVE OF FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS RETURNS ON SATURDAY AND REMAINS ENTRENCHED THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...
     DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...
     MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...
     DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 011016
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
516 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY ARE THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS /DETAILS IN FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW/ AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE
FORM OF STRENGTHENING WESTERLY FLOW AND FALLING HEIGHTS...AND A LEESIDE
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES. THE
POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE A MAJOR FACTOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP /AS IT IS FOR THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS/. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO
WEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH THE SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR
EAST..BUT HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES AS METEOROLOGICAL REASONING REMAINS SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY...THOUGH DEW POINTS MAY BE A BIT LOWER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM WELL INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S AND REDUCE CONCERNS FOR
A CAP...AND ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL
BE COOLER BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
TO THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING...THOUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND BEST FORCING WILL
REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S ON FRIDAY...AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE FOR EARLY APRIL. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO 8 TO 15 PERCENT...AND TEMPERATURES OF 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE 20FT WINDS...STILL COULD BE MARGINAL WITH THE POSITION AND
STRENGTH OF A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES. AT
ANY RATE...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS AND EXPECT SEVERAL LOCATIONS WILL
MEET THE CRITERIA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE EASTERN PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IF THIS AREA DOES
NOT REACH THE FORECASTED HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...THIS AREA
COULD ALSO SEE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ON
THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY...AND ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN BY
AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE AS THIS LOOKS TO BE THE AREA WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR MEETING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY...BRINGING A BRIEF REPRIEVE OF FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS RETURNS ON SATURDAY AND REMAINS ENTRENCHED THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                90  49  81  42  59 /  10  10   5   5   5
BEAVER OK                  90  48  70  41  59 /  20  20   5  20  10
BOISE CITY OK              88  43  71  35  54 /   5   5   5  20  10
BORGER TX                  91  52  79  43  60 /  10  10   5  10   5
BOYS RANCH TX              93  47  80  41  60 /   5   5   5   5   5
CANYON TX                  90  49  82  42  60 /   5   5   5   5   5
CLARENDON TX               90  51  86  46  62 /  20  20   5   5   5
DALHART TX                 89  44  77  38  57 /   5   5   5  10   5
GUYMON OK                  88  46  72  39  58 /  10  10   5  20  10
HEREFORD TX                89  46  83  40  60 /   5   5   0   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                89  52  76  44  60 /  20  20   5  10   5
PAMPA TX                   90  49  79  42  58 /  10  10   5  10   5
SHAMROCK TX                90  53  87  48  62 /  20  20   5  10   5
WELLINGTON TX              91  57  89  52  65 /  20  20   5  10   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...
     DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...
     MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...
     DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

02/18






000
FXUS64 KAMA 011016
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
516 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY ARE THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS /DETAILS IN FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW/ AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE
FORM OF STRENGTHENING WESTERLY FLOW AND FALLING HEIGHTS...AND A LEESIDE
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES. THE
POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE A MAJOR FACTOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP /AS IT IS FOR THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS/. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO
WEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH THE SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR
EAST..BUT HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES AS METEOROLOGICAL REASONING REMAINS SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY...THOUGH DEW POINTS MAY BE A BIT LOWER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM WELL INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S AND REDUCE CONCERNS FOR
A CAP...AND ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL
BE COOLER BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
TO THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING...THOUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND BEST FORCING WILL
REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S ON FRIDAY...AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE FOR EARLY APRIL. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO 8 TO 15 PERCENT...AND TEMPERATURES OF 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE 20FT WINDS...STILL COULD BE MARGINAL WITH THE POSITION AND
STRENGTH OF A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES. AT
ANY RATE...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS AND EXPECT SEVERAL LOCATIONS WILL
MEET THE CRITERIA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE EASTERN PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IF THIS AREA DOES
NOT REACH THE FORECASTED HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...THIS AREA
COULD ALSO SEE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ON
THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY...AND ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN BY
AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE AS THIS LOOKS TO BE THE AREA WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR MEETING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY...BRINGING A BRIEF REPRIEVE OF FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS RETURNS ON SATURDAY AND REMAINS ENTRENCHED THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                90  49  81  42  59 /  10  10   5   5   5
BEAVER OK                  90  48  70  41  59 /  20  20   5  20  10
BOISE CITY OK              88  43  71  35  54 /   5   5   5  20  10
BORGER TX                  91  52  79  43  60 /  10  10   5  10   5
BOYS RANCH TX              93  47  80  41  60 /   5   5   5   5   5
CANYON TX                  90  49  82  42  60 /   5   5   5   5   5
CLARENDON TX               90  51  86  46  62 /  20  20   5   5   5
DALHART TX                 89  44  77  38  57 /   5   5   5  10   5
GUYMON OK                  88  46  72  39  58 /  10  10   5  20  10
HEREFORD TX                89  46  83  40  60 /   5   5   0   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                89  52  76  44  60 /  20  20   5  10   5
PAMPA TX                   90  49  79  42  58 /  10  10   5  10   5
SHAMROCK TX                90  53  87  48  62 /  20  20   5  10   5
WELLINGTON TX              91  57  89  52  65 /  20  20   5  10   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...
     DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...
     MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...
     DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

02/18







000
FXUS64 KAMA 011016
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
516 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY ARE THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS /DETAILS IN FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW/ AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE
FORM OF STRENGTHENING WESTERLY FLOW AND FALLING HEIGHTS...AND A LEESIDE
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES. THE
POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE A MAJOR FACTOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP /AS IT IS FOR THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS/. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO
WEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH THE SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR
EAST..BUT HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES AS METEOROLOGICAL REASONING REMAINS SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY...THOUGH DEW POINTS MAY BE A BIT LOWER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM WELL INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S AND REDUCE CONCERNS FOR
A CAP...AND ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL
BE COOLER BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
TO THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING...THOUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND BEST FORCING WILL
REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S ON FRIDAY...AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE FOR EARLY APRIL. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO 8 TO 15 PERCENT...AND TEMPERATURES OF 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE 20FT WINDS...STILL COULD BE MARGINAL WITH THE POSITION AND
STRENGTH OF A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES. AT
ANY RATE...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS AND EXPECT SEVERAL LOCATIONS WILL
MEET THE CRITERIA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE EASTERN PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IF THIS AREA DOES
NOT REACH THE FORECASTED HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...THIS AREA
COULD ALSO SEE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ON
THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY...AND ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN BY
AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE AS THIS LOOKS TO BE THE AREA WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR MEETING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY...BRINGING A BRIEF REPRIEVE OF FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS RETURNS ON SATURDAY AND REMAINS ENTRENCHED THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                90  49  81  42  59 /  10  10   5   5   5
BEAVER OK                  90  48  70  41  59 /  20  20   5  20  10
BOISE CITY OK              88  43  71  35  54 /   5   5   5  20  10
BORGER TX                  91  52  79  43  60 /  10  10   5  10   5
BOYS RANCH TX              93  47  80  41  60 /   5   5   5   5   5
CANYON TX                  90  49  82  42  60 /   5   5   5   5   5
CLARENDON TX               90  51  86  46  62 /  20  20   5   5   5
DALHART TX                 89  44  77  38  57 /   5   5   5  10   5
GUYMON OK                  88  46  72  39  58 /  10  10   5  20  10
HEREFORD TX                89  46  83  40  60 /   5   5   0   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                89  52  76  44  60 /  20  20   5  10   5
PAMPA TX                   90  49  79  42  58 /  10  10   5  10   5
SHAMROCK TX                90  53  87  48  62 /  20  20   5  10   5
WELLINGTON TX              91  57  89  52  65 /  20  20   5  10   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...
     DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...
     MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...
     DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

02/18







000
FXUS64 KAMA 011016
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
516 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY ARE THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS /DETAILS IN FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW/ AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE
FORM OF STRENGTHENING WESTERLY FLOW AND FALLING HEIGHTS...AND A LEESIDE
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES. THE
POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE A MAJOR FACTOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP /AS IT IS FOR THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS/. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO
WEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH THE SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR
EAST..BUT HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES AS METEOROLOGICAL REASONING REMAINS SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY...THOUGH DEW POINTS MAY BE A BIT LOWER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM WELL INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S AND REDUCE CONCERNS FOR
A CAP...AND ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL
BE COOLER BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
TO THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING...THOUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND BEST FORCING WILL
REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S ON FRIDAY...AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE FOR EARLY APRIL. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO 8 TO 15 PERCENT...AND TEMPERATURES OF 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE 20FT WINDS...STILL COULD BE MARGINAL WITH THE POSITION AND
STRENGTH OF A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES. AT
ANY RATE...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS AND EXPECT SEVERAL LOCATIONS WILL
MEET THE CRITERIA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE EASTERN PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IF THIS AREA DOES
NOT REACH THE FORECASTED HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...THIS AREA
COULD ALSO SEE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ON
THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY...AND ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN BY
AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE AS THIS LOOKS TO BE THE AREA WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR MEETING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY...BRINGING A BRIEF REPRIEVE OF FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS RETURNS ON SATURDAY AND REMAINS ENTRENCHED THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                90  49  81  42  59 /  10  10   5   5   5
BEAVER OK                  90  48  70  41  59 /  20  20   5  20  10
BOISE CITY OK              88  43  71  35  54 /   5   5   5  20  10
BORGER TX                  91  52  79  43  60 /  10  10   5  10   5
BOYS RANCH TX              93  47  80  41  60 /   5   5   5   5   5
CANYON TX                  90  49  82  42  60 /   5   5   5   5   5
CLARENDON TX               90  51  86  46  62 /  20  20   5   5   5
DALHART TX                 89  44  77  38  57 /   5   5   5  10   5
GUYMON OK                  88  46  72  39  58 /  10  10   5  20  10
HEREFORD TX                89  46  83  40  60 /   5   5   0   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                89  52  76  44  60 /  20  20   5  10   5
PAMPA TX                   90  49  79  42  58 /  10  10   5  10   5
SHAMROCK TX                90  53  87  48  62 /  20  20   5  10   5
WELLINGTON TX              91  57  89  52  65 /  20  20   5  10   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...
     DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...
     MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...
     DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

02/18






000
FXUS64 KAMA 010414
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1114 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TERMINAL.
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY
TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KT. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER 00Z THURSDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH KGUY
TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE TO SHIFT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE ON
OCCURRENCE AT THE TERMINALS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN PREVAILING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 925 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRAPHICAL FORECASTS...CANCELLING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH EARLY IN EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND LOWERING EVENING
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO ISOLATED IN EASTERN SECTIONS.  COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DIMINISHED NOTABLY WITH LOSS OF
INSOLATION.  UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS BEING ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

AVIATION...

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION TO THE EAST MAY REACH KAMA
BY AROUND 01Z CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 12 KNOTS OR LESS. AT KGUY AND KDHT WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY OR
SOUTHEASTERLY AS WELL AT GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY VEER AROUND AND BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BY MORNING AND
INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE AFTER
ABOUT 17Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE EAST OF ALL THREE TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

BRB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALONG WITH
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

CONVECTION IS TRYING TO GET GOING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TX PANHANDLE. DECENT INSTABILITY IS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE WHERE STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND
50F HAVE YIELDED 0-1 KM MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH 30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STORM
ORGANIZATION...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION IS THE DEGREE OF
FORCING...WHICH REMAINS RATHER WEAK. DIURNAL HEATING HAS ERODED MUCH
OF THE CAP THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH MESOANALYSIS DATA SHOWS SOME
WEAK CIN REMAINING IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES WHERE THE BETTER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY EXISTS. WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND/OR WEAK
SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE
AREA MAY BE ENOUGH TO AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HOWEVER. FARTHER
WEST...DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED INTO THE 20S AND 30S...LIMITING ANY
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. COULD HOWEVER SEE A VIRGA SHOWER DRIFT INTO THE
FAR NORTHWEST PANHANDLES OFF THE RATON MESA THIS EVENING. EXPECT ANY
STORMS TO DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST.

ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND PLAINS...WITH A TRAILING TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. A
RESULTANT INCREASE IN MID/UPPER FLOW WILL PROMOTE LEE CYCLOGENESIS
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTH
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES. THE DRYLINE WILL MIX EASTWARD THROUGH THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES DURING THE AFTERNOON...AIDED BY DRY DOWNSLOPE
SOUTHWEST WINDS. STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE DRYLINE WILL MIX
ALL THE WAY INTO WESTERN OK BEFORE ANY STORMS INITIATE OR HANG UP IN
THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...HAVE INSERTED SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. VERY STRONG HEATING WILL LIKELY ERODE MUCH IF NOT ALL OF
THE CAP...BUT FORCING AGAIN APPEARS WEAK AND NOT WELL-FOCUSED. THE
DRYLINE LOOKS FAIRLY DIFFUSE...ALTHOUGH SOME WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED...BUT THE STRONGER UPPER DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN
TO OUR NORTH. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO FORM IN THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES...EXPECTED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE CONVECTION. WEST OF THE DRYLINE...FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL BE THE STORY /DETAILS BELOW/. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY APPROACH RECORDS AS THEY SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY. A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S
AND LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY AS A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT. COULD SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS DYNAMICS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH SCRAPE THE AREA. LOWS
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A
FROST OR FREEZE POSSIBLE FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
QUASI-ZONAL UPPER FLOW/LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING EVENTUALLY GIVES WAY TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF A WESTERN UPPER TROUGH. IT LOOKS LIKE
ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THIS TIME WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE
PANHANDLES.

KB

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SOME 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE /AND NEAR RECORD
VALUES/ WITH A PRONOUNCED THERMAL RIDGE IN PLACE...LEADING TO RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES OF 8 TO 15 PERCENT WEST OF THE DRYLINE. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAY BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO A SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THIS WILL BE OFFSET SOME BY THE VERY
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS...THUS A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH BUT ALLEVIATING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A RETURN TO WARM...DRY...BREEZY CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A RETURN OF
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...
     DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...
     MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

14/03






000
FXUS64 KAMA 010414
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1114 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TERMINAL.
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY
TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KT. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER 00Z THURSDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH KGUY
TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE TO SHIFT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE ON
OCCURRENCE AT THE TERMINALS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN PREVAILING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 925 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRAPHICAL FORECASTS...CANCELLING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH EARLY IN EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND LOWERING EVENING
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO ISOLATED IN EASTERN SECTIONS.  COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DIMINISHED NOTABLY WITH LOSS OF
INSOLATION.  UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS BEING ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

AVIATION...

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION TO THE EAST MAY REACH KAMA
BY AROUND 01Z CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 12 KNOTS OR LESS. AT KGUY AND KDHT WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY OR
SOUTHEASTERLY AS WELL AT GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY VEER AROUND AND BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BY MORNING AND
INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE AFTER
ABOUT 17Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE EAST OF ALL THREE TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

BRB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALONG WITH
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

CONVECTION IS TRYING TO GET GOING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TX PANHANDLE. DECENT INSTABILITY IS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE WHERE STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND
50F HAVE YIELDED 0-1 KM MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH 30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STORM
ORGANIZATION...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION IS THE DEGREE OF
FORCING...WHICH REMAINS RATHER WEAK. DIURNAL HEATING HAS ERODED MUCH
OF THE CAP THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH MESOANALYSIS DATA SHOWS SOME
WEAK CIN REMAINING IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES WHERE THE BETTER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY EXISTS. WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND/OR WEAK
SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE
AREA MAY BE ENOUGH TO AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HOWEVER. FARTHER
WEST...DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED INTO THE 20S AND 30S...LIMITING ANY
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. COULD HOWEVER SEE A VIRGA SHOWER DRIFT INTO THE
FAR NORTHWEST PANHANDLES OFF THE RATON MESA THIS EVENING. EXPECT ANY
STORMS TO DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST.

ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND PLAINS...WITH A TRAILING TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. A
RESULTANT INCREASE IN MID/UPPER FLOW WILL PROMOTE LEE CYCLOGENESIS
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTH
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES. THE DRYLINE WILL MIX EASTWARD THROUGH THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES DURING THE AFTERNOON...AIDED BY DRY DOWNSLOPE
SOUTHWEST WINDS. STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE DRYLINE WILL MIX
ALL THE WAY INTO WESTERN OK BEFORE ANY STORMS INITIATE OR HANG UP IN
THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...HAVE INSERTED SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. VERY STRONG HEATING WILL LIKELY ERODE MUCH IF NOT ALL OF
THE CAP...BUT FORCING AGAIN APPEARS WEAK AND NOT WELL-FOCUSED. THE
DRYLINE LOOKS FAIRLY DIFFUSE...ALTHOUGH SOME WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED...BUT THE STRONGER UPPER DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN
TO OUR NORTH. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO FORM IN THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES...EXPECTED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE CONVECTION. WEST OF THE DRYLINE...FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL BE THE STORY /DETAILS BELOW/. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY APPROACH RECORDS AS THEY SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY. A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S
AND LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY AS A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT. COULD SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS DYNAMICS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH SCRAPE THE AREA. LOWS
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A
FROST OR FREEZE POSSIBLE FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
QUASI-ZONAL UPPER FLOW/LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING EVENTUALLY GIVES WAY TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF A WESTERN UPPER TROUGH. IT LOOKS LIKE
ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THIS TIME WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE
PANHANDLES.

KB

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SOME 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE /AND NEAR RECORD
VALUES/ WITH A PRONOUNCED THERMAL RIDGE IN PLACE...LEADING TO RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES OF 8 TO 15 PERCENT WEST OF THE DRYLINE. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAY BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO A SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THIS WILL BE OFFSET SOME BY THE VERY
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS...THUS A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH BUT ALLEVIATING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A RETURN TO WARM...DRY...BREEZY CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A RETURN OF
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...
     DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...
     MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

14/03







000
FXUS64 KAMA 010225 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
925 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRAPHICAL FORECASTS...CANCELLING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH EARLY IN EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND LOWERING EVENING
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO ISOLATED IN EASTERN SECTIONS.  COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DIMINISHED NOTABLY WITH LOSS OF
INSOLATION.  UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS BEING ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

AVIATION...

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION TO THE EAST MAY REACH KAMA
BY AROUND 01Z CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 12 KNOTS OR LESS. AT KGUY AND KDHT WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY OR
SOUTHEASTERLY AS WELL AT GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY VEER AROUND AND BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BY MORNING AND
INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE AFTER
ABOUT 17Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE EAST OF ALL THREE TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

BRB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALONG WITH
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

CONVECTION IS TRYING TO GET GOING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TX PANHANDLE. DECENT INSTABILITY IS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE WHERE STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND
50F HAVE YIELDED 0-1 KM MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH 30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STORM
ORGANIZATION...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION IS THE DEGREE OF
FORCING...WHICH REMAINS RATHER WEAK. DIURNAL HEATING HAS ERODED MUCH
OF THE CAP THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH MESOANALYSIS DATA SHOWS SOME
WEAK CIN REMAINING IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES WHERE THE BETTER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY EXISTS. WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND/OR WEAK
SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE
AREA MAY BE ENOUGH TO AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HOWEVER. FARTHER
WEST...DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED INTO THE 20S AND 30S...LIMITING ANY
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. COULD HOWEVER SEE A VIRGA SHOWER DRIFT INTO THE
FAR NORTHWEST PANHANDLES OFF THE RATON MESA THIS EVENING. EXPECT ANY
STORMS TO DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST.

ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND PLAINS...WITH A TRAILING TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. A
RESULTANT INCREASE IN MID/UPPER FLOW WILL PROMOTE LEE CYCLOGENESIS
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTH
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES. THE DRYLINE WILL MIX EASTWARD THROUGH THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES DURING THE AFTERNOON...AIDED BY DRY DOWNSLOPE
SOUTHWEST WINDS. STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE DRYLINE WILL MIX
ALL THE WAY INTO WESTERN OK BEFORE ANY STORMS INITIATE OR HANG UP IN
THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...HAVE INSERTED SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. VERY STRONG HEATING WILL LIKELY ERODE MUCH IF NOT ALL OF
THE CAP...BUT FORCING AGAIN APPEARS WEAK AND NOT WELL-FOCUSED. THE
DRYLINE LOOKS FAIRLY DIFFUSE...ALTHOUGH SOME WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED...BUT THE STRONGER UPPER DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN
TO OUR NORTH. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO FORM IN THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES...EXPECTED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE CONVECTION. WEST OF THE DRYLINE...FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL BE THE STORY /DETAILS BELOW/. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY APPROACH RECORDS AS THEY SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY. A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S
AND LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY AS A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT. COULD SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS DYNAMICS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH SCRAPE THE AREA. LOWS
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A
FROST OR FREEZE POSSIBLE FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
QUASI-ZONAL UPPER FLOW/LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING EVENTUALLY GIVES WAY TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF A WESTERN UPPER TROUGH. IT LOOKS LIKE
ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THIS TIME WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE
PANHANDLES.

KB

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SOME 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE /AND NEAR RECORD
VALUES/ WITH A PRONOUNCED THERMAL RIDGE IN PLACE...LEADING TO RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES OF 8 TO 15 PERCENT WEST OF THE DRYLINE. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAY BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO A SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THIS WILL BE OFFSET SOME BY THE VERY
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS...THUS A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH BUT ALLEVIATING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A RETURN TO WARM...DRY...BREEZY CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A RETURN OF
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...
     DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...
     MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

14/03






000
FXUS64 KAMA 010225 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
925 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRAPHICAL FORECASTS...CANCELLING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH EARLY IN EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND LOWERING EVENING
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO ISOLATED IN EASTERN SECTIONS.  COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DIMINISHED NOTABLY WITH LOSS OF
INSOLATION.  UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS BEING ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

AVIATION...

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION TO THE EAST MAY REACH KAMA
BY AROUND 01Z CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 12 KNOTS OR LESS. AT KGUY AND KDHT WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY OR
SOUTHEASTERLY AS WELL AT GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY VEER AROUND AND BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BY MORNING AND
INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE AFTER
ABOUT 17Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE EAST OF ALL THREE TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

BRB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALONG WITH
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

CONVECTION IS TRYING TO GET GOING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TX PANHANDLE. DECENT INSTABILITY IS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE WHERE STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND
50F HAVE YIELDED 0-1 KM MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH 30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STORM
ORGANIZATION...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION IS THE DEGREE OF
FORCING...WHICH REMAINS RATHER WEAK. DIURNAL HEATING HAS ERODED MUCH
OF THE CAP THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH MESOANALYSIS DATA SHOWS SOME
WEAK CIN REMAINING IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES WHERE THE BETTER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY EXISTS. WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND/OR WEAK
SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE
AREA MAY BE ENOUGH TO AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HOWEVER. FARTHER
WEST...DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED INTO THE 20S AND 30S...LIMITING ANY
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. COULD HOWEVER SEE A VIRGA SHOWER DRIFT INTO THE
FAR NORTHWEST PANHANDLES OFF THE RATON MESA THIS EVENING. EXPECT ANY
STORMS TO DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST.

ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND PLAINS...WITH A TRAILING TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. A
RESULTANT INCREASE IN MID/UPPER FLOW WILL PROMOTE LEE CYCLOGENESIS
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTH
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES. THE DRYLINE WILL MIX EASTWARD THROUGH THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES DURING THE AFTERNOON...AIDED BY DRY DOWNSLOPE
SOUTHWEST WINDS. STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE DRYLINE WILL MIX
ALL THE WAY INTO WESTERN OK BEFORE ANY STORMS INITIATE OR HANG UP IN
THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...HAVE INSERTED SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. VERY STRONG HEATING WILL LIKELY ERODE MUCH IF NOT ALL OF
THE CAP...BUT FORCING AGAIN APPEARS WEAK AND NOT WELL-FOCUSED. THE
DRYLINE LOOKS FAIRLY DIFFUSE...ALTHOUGH SOME WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED...BUT THE STRONGER UPPER DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN
TO OUR NORTH. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO FORM IN THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES...EXPECTED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE CONVECTION. WEST OF THE DRYLINE...FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL BE THE STORY /DETAILS BELOW/. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY APPROACH RECORDS AS THEY SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY. A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S
AND LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY AS A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT. COULD SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS DYNAMICS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH SCRAPE THE AREA. LOWS
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A
FROST OR FREEZE POSSIBLE FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
QUASI-ZONAL UPPER FLOW/LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING EVENTUALLY GIVES WAY TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF A WESTERN UPPER TROUGH. IT LOOKS LIKE
ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THIS TIME WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE
PANHANDLES.

KB

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SOME 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE /AND NEAR RECORD
VALUES/ WITH A PRONOUNCED THERMAL RIDGE IN PLACE...LEADING TO RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES OF 8 TO 15 PERCENT WEST OF THE DRYLINE. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAY BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO A SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THIS WILL BE OFFSET SOME BY THE VERY
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS...THUS A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH BUT ALLEVIATING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A RETURN TO WARM...DRY...BREEZY CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A RETURN OF
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...
     DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...
     MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

14/03







000
FXUS64 KAMA 312336
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
636 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.AVIATION...

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION TO THE EAST MAY REACH KAMA
BY AROUND 01Z CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 12 KNOTS OR LESS. AT KGUY AND KDHT WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY OR
SOUTHEASTERLY AS WELL AT GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY VEER AROUND AND BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BY MORNING AND
INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE AFTER
ABOUT 17Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE EAST OF ALL THREE TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALONG WITH
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

CONVECTION IS TRYING TO GET GOING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TX PANHANDLE. DECENT INSTABILITY IS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE WHERE STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND
50F HAVE YIELDED 0-1 KM MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH 30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STORM
ORGANIZATION...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION IS THE DEGREE OF
FORCING...WHICH REMAINS RATHER WEAK. DIURNAL HEATING HAS ERODED MUCH
OF THE CAP THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH MESOANALYSIS DATA SHOWS SOME
WEAK CIN REMAINING IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES WHERE THE BETTER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY EXISTS. WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND/OR WEAK
SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE
AREA MAY BE ENOUGH TO AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HOWEVER. FARTHER
WEST...DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED INTO THE 20S AND 30S...LIMITING ANY
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. COULD HOWEVER SEE A VIRGA SHOWER DRIFT INTO THE
FAR NORTHWEST PANHANDLES OFF THE RATON MESA THIS EVENING. EXPECT ANY
STORMS TO DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST.

ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND PLAINS...WITH A TRAILING TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. A
RESULTANT INCREASE IN MID/UPPER FLOW WILL PROMOTE LEE CYCLOGENESIS
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTH
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES. THE DRYLINE WILL MIX EASTWARD THROUGH THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES DURING THE AFTERNOON...AIDED BY DRY DOWNSLOPE
SOUTHWEST WINDS. STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE DRYLINE WILL MIX
ALL THE WAY INTO WESTERN OK BEFORE ANY STORMS INITIATE OR HANG UP IN
THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...HAVE INSERTED SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. VERY STRONG HEATING WILL LIKELY ERODE MUCH IF NOT ALL OF
THE CAP...BUT FORCING AGAIN APPEARS WEAK AND NOT WELL-FOCUSED. THE
DRYLINE LOOKS FAIRLY DIFFUSE...ALTHOUGH SOME WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED...BUT THE STRONGER UPPER DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN
TO OUR NORTH. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO FORM IN THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES...EXPECTED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE CONVECTION. WEST OF THE DRYLINE...FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL BE THE STORY /DETAILS BELOW/. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY APPROACH RECORDS AS THEY SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY. A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S
AND LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY AS A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT. COULD SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS DYNAMICS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH SCRAPE THE AREA. LOWS
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A
FROST OR FREEZE POSSIBLE FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
QUASI-ZONAL UPPER FLOW/LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING EVENTUALLY GIVES WAY TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF A WESTERN UPPER TROUGH. IT LOOKS LIKE
ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THIS TIME WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE
PANHANDLES.

KB

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SOME 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE /AND NEAR RECORD
VALUES/ WITH A PRONOUNCED THERMAL RIDGE IN PLACE...LEADING TO RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES OF 8 TO 15 PERCENT WEST OF THE DRYLINE. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAY BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO A SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THIS WILL BE OFFSET SOME BY THE VERY
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS...THUS A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH BUT ALLEVIATING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A RETURN TO WARM...DRY...BREEZY CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A RETURN OF
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...
     DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...
     MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

17/14






000
FXUS64 KAMA 312336
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
636 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.AVIATION...

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION TO THE EAST MAY REACH KAMA
BY AROUND 01Z CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 12 KNOTS OR LESS. AT KGUY AND KDHT WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY OR
SOUTHEASTERLY AS WELL AT GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY VEER AROUND AND BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BY MORNING AND
INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE AFTER
ABOUT 17Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE EAST OF ALL THREE TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALONG WITH
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

CONVECTION IS TRYING TO GET GOING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TX PANHANDLE. DECENT INSTABILITY IS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE WHERE STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND
50F HAVE YIELDED 0-1 KM MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH 30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STORM
ORGANIZATION...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION IS THE DEGREE OF
FORCING...WHICH REMAINS RATHER WEAK. DIURNAL HEATING HAS ERODED MUCH
OF THE CAP THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH MESOANALYSIS DATA SHOWS SOME
WEAK CIN REMAINING IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES WHERE THE BETTER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY EXISTS. WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND/OR WEAK
SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE
AREA MAY BE ENOUGH TO AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HOWEVER. FARTHER
WEST...DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED INTO THE 20S AND 30S...LIMITING ANY
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. COULD HOWEVER SEE A VIRGA SHOWER DRIFT INTO THE
FAR NORTHWEST PANHANDLES OFF THE RATON MESA THIS EVENING. EXPECT ANY
STORMS TO DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST.

ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND PLAINS...WITH A TRAILING TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. A
RESULTANT INCREASE IN MID/UPPER FLOW WILL PROMOTE LEE CYCLOGENESIS
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTH
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES. THE DRYLINE WILL MIX EASTWARD THROUGH THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES DURING THE AFTERNOON...AIDED BY DRY DOWNSLOPE
SOUTHWEST WINDS. STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE DRYLINE WILL MIX
ALL THE WAY INTO WESTERN OK BEFORE ANY STORMS INITIATE OR HANG UP IN
THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...HAVE INSERTED SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. VERY STRONG HEATING WILL LIKELY ERODE MUCH IF NOT ALL OF
THE CAP...BUT FORCING AGAIN APPEARS WEAK AND NOT WELL-FOCUSED. THE
DRYLINE LOOKS FAIRLY DIFFUSE...ALTHOUGH SOME WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED...BUT THE STRONGER UPPER DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN
TO OUR NORTH. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO FORM IN THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES...EXPECTED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE CONVECTION. WEST OF THE DRYLINE...FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL BE THE STORY /DETAILS BELOW/. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY APPROACH RECORDS AS THEY SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY. A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S
AND LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY AS A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT. COULD SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS DYNAMICS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH SCRAPE THE AREA. LOWS
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A
FROST OR FREEZE POSSIBLE FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
QUASI-ZONAL UPPER FLOW/LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING EVENTUALLY GIVES WAY TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF A WESTERN UPPER TROUGH. IT LOOKS LIKE
ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THIS TIME WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE
PANHANDLES.

KB

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SOME 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE /AND NEAR RECORD
VALUES/ WITH A PRONOUNCED THERMAL RIDGE IN PLACE...LEADING TO RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES OF 8 TO 15 PERCENT WEST OF THE DRYLINE. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAY BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO A SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THIS WILL BE OFFSET SOME BY THE VERY
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS...THUS A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH BUT ALLEVIATING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A RETURN TO WARM...DRY...BREEZY CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A RETURN OF
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...
     DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...
     MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

17/14







000
FXUS64 KAMA 312141
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
441 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALONG WITH
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

CONVECTION IS TRYING TO GET GOING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TX PANHANDLE. DECENT INSTABILITY IS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE WHERE STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND
50F HAVE YIELDED 0-1 KM MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH 30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STORM
ORGANIZATION...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION IS THE DEGREE OF
FORCING...WHICH REMAINS RATHER WEAK. DIURNAL HEATING HAS ERODED MUCH
OF THE CAP THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH MESOANALYSIS DATA SHOWS SOME
WEAK CIN REMAINING IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES WHERE THE BETTER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY EXISTS. WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND/OR WEAK
SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE
AREA MAY BE ENOUGH TO AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HOWEVER. FARTHER
WEST...DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED INTO THE 20S AND 30S...LIMITING ANY
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. COULD HOWEVER SEE A VIRGA SHOWER DRIFT INTO THE
FAR NORTHWEST PANHANDLES OFF THE RATON MESA THIS EVENING. EXPECT ANY
STORMS TO DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST.

ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND PLAINS...WITH A TRAILING TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. A
RESULTANT INCREASE IN MID/UPPER FLOW WILL PROMOTE LEE CYCLOGENESIS
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTH
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES. THE DRYLINE WILL MIX EASTWARD THROUGH THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES DURING THE AFTERNOON...AIDED BY DRY DOWNSLOPE
SOUTHWEST WINDS. STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE DRYLINE WILL MIX
ALL THE WAY INTO WESTERN OK BEFORE ANY STORMS INITIATE OR HANG UP IN
THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...HAVE INSERTED SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. VERY STRONG HEATING WILL LIKELY ERODE MUCH IF NOT ALL OF
THE CAP...BUT FORCING AGAIN APPEARS WEAK AND NOT WELL-FOCUSED. THE
DRYLINE LOOKS FAIRLY DIFFUSE...ALTHOUGH SOME WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED...BUT THE STRONGER UPPER DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN
TO OUR NORTH. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO FORM IN THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES...EXPECTED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE CONVECTION. WEST OF THE DRYLINE...FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL BE THE STORY /DETAILS BELOW/. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY APPROACH RECORDS AS THEY SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY. A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S
AND LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY AS A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT. COULD SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS DYNAMICS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH SCRAPE THE AREA. LOWS
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A
FROST OR FREEZE POSSIBLE FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
QUASI-ZONAL UPPER FLOW/LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING EVENTUALLY GIVES WAY TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF A WESTERN UPPER TROUGH. IT LOOKS LIKE
ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THIS TIME WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE
PANHANDLES.

KB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SOME 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE /AND NEAR RECORD
VALUES/ WITH A PRONOUNCED THERMAL RIDGE IN PLACE...LEADING TO RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES OF 8 TO 15 PERCENT WEST OF THE DRYLINE. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAY BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO A SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THIS WILL BE OFFSET SOME BY THE VERY
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS...THUS A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH BUT ALLEVIATING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A RETURN TO WARM...DRY...BREEZY CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A RETURN OF
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

KB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                52  89  50  81  41 /   5  10  10   5   5
BEAVER OK                  50  89  47  73  38 /   5  20  20   5  20
BOISE CITY OK              47  88  43  71  34 /   5   5   5   5  20
BORGER TX                  55  90  52  80  42 /   5  10  10   5  10
BOYS RANCH TX              49  92  48  81  39 /   0   5   5   5   5
CANYON TX                  51  89  50  82  40 /   5   5   5   5   5
CLARENDON TX               54  89  55  85  44 /  10  20  20   5   5
DALHART TX                 45  88  44  77  37 /   5   5   5   5  10
GUYMON OK                  49  90  46  71  38 /   0  10  10   5  20
HEREFORD TX                49  88  49  82  39 /   5   5   5   0   5
LIPSCOMB TX                55  88  51  76  42 /   5  20  20   5  10
PAMPA TX                   53  89  50  78  40 /   5  10  10   5  10
SHAMROCK TX                54  89  54  84  46 /  20  20  20   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              57  90  57  87  49 /  20  20  20   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...
     DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...
     MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

15/08






000
FXUS64 KAMA 312141
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
441 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALONG WITH
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

CONVECTION IS TRYING TO GET GOING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TX PANHANDLE. DECENT INSTABILITY IS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE WHERE STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND
50F HAVE YIELDED 0-1 KM MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH 30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STORM
ORGANIZATION...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION IS THE DEGREE OF
FORCING...WHICH REMAINS RATHER WEAK. DIURNAL HEATING HAS ERODED MUCH
OF THE CAP THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH MESOANALYSIS DATA SHOWS SOME
WEAK CIN REMAINING IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES WHERE THE BETTER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY EXISTS. WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND/OR WEAK
SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE
AREA MAY BE ENOUGH TO AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HOWEVER. FARTHER
WEST...DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED INTO THE 20S AND 30S...LIMITING ANY
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. COULD HOWEVER SEE A VIRGA SHOWER DRIFT INTO THE
FAR NORTHWEST PANHANDLES OFF THE RATON MESA THIS EVENING. EXPECT ANY
STORMS TO DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST.

ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND PLAINS...WITH A TRAILING TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. A
RESULTANT INCREASE IN MID/UPPER FLOW WILL PROMOTE LEE CYCLOGENESIS
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTH
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES. THE DRYLINE WILL MIX EASTWARD THROUGH THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES DURING THE AFTERNOON...AIDED BY DRY DOWNSLOPE
SOUTHWEST WINDS. STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE DRYLINE WILL MIX
ALL THE WAY INTO WESTERN OK BEFORE ANY STORMS INITIATE OR HANG UP IN
THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...HAVE INSERTED SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. VERY STRONG HEATING WILL LIKELY ERODE MUCH IF NOT ALL OF
THE CAP...BUT FORCING AGAIN APPEARS WEAK AND NOT WELL-FOCUSED. THE
DRYLINE LOOKS FAIRLY DIFFUSE...ALTHOUGH SOME WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED...BUT THE STRONGER UPPER DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN
TO OUR NORTH. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO FORM IN THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES...EXPECTED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE CONVECTION. WEST OF THE DRYLINE...FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL BE THE STORY /DETAILS BELOW/. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY APPROACH RECORDS AS THEY SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY. A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S
AND LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY AS A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT. COULD SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS DYNAMICS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH SCRAPE THE AREA. LOWS
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A
FROST OR FREEZE POSSIBLE FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
QUASI-ZONAL UPPER FLOW/LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING EVENTUALLY GIVES WAY TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF A WESTERN UPPER TROUGH. IT LOOKS LIKE
ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THIS TIME WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE
PANHANDLES.

KB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SOME 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE /AND NEAR RECORD
VALUES/ WITH A PRONOUNCED THERMAL RIDGE IN PLACE...LEADING TO RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES OF 8 TO 15 PERCENT WEST OF THE DRYLINE. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAY BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO A SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THIS WILL BE OFFSET SOME BY THE VERY
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS...THUS A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH BUT ALLEVIATING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A RETURN TO WARM...DRY...BREEZY CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A RETURN OF
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

KB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                52  89  50  81  41 /   5  10  10   5   5
BEAVER OK                  50  89  47  73  38 /   5  20  20   5  20
BOISE CITY OK              47  88  43  71  34 /   5   5   5   5  20
BORGER TX                  55  90  52  80  42 /   5  10  10   5  10
BOYS RANCH TX              49  92  48  81  39 /   0   5   5   5   5
CANYON TX                  51  89  50  82  40 /   5   5   5   5   5
CLARENDON TX               54  89  55  85  44 /  10  20  20   5   5
DALHART TX                 45  88  44  77  37 /   5   5   5   5  10
GUYMON OK                  49  90  46  71  38 /   0  10  10   5  20
HEREFORD TX                49  88  49  82  39 /   5   5   5   0   5
LIPSCOMB TX                55  88  51  76  42 /   5  20  20   5  10
PAMPA TX                   53  89  50  78  40 /   5  10  10   5  10
SHAMROCK TX                54  89  54  84  46 /  20  20  20   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              57  90  57  87  49 /  20  20  20   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...
     DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...
     MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

15/08







000
FXUS64 KAMA 311707 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1207 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY AT 10 KNOTS OR BELOW AS THEY VEER FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS FORECAST. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...A SFC TROF WILL MEANDER AROUND THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND WILL CAUSE WINDS TO GO AROUND THE DIAL DURG THIS FCST
CYCLE. ISOLD HIGH BASED SHOWERS OR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST
EAST OF THE TERMINAL SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THIS WEATHER ELEMENT OUT OF THE KAMA
AND KGUY TAFS AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PANHANDLES TODAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...LOW TO MID 80S...SO WITH DAYTIME HEATING
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
DRIER...AND ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE NOW LAGGING BEHIND PEAK HEATING
SO HAVE LOWERED POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE. LOCATION WILL VARY AS
THE TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND MEANDERS SOUTH. THE MOST FAVORABLE
LOCATIONS WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

ON WEDNESDAY...SOME DISCUSSION ON HOW FAR EAST THE SURFACE TROUGH
SHIFTS AND ANY RESULTANT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FOR
NOW...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP POPS OUT AS WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE WHICH COULD SHIFT THE POTENTIAL EAST OF OUR
AREA. ATTENTION SHIFTS TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ACROSS THE AREA. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR RAIN ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. FRIDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A GOOD 20 DEGREES
BELOW THURSDAY HIGHS BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
REBOUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE 70S AND LOW 80S WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW. MODELS HINTING AT POSSIBLE DRYLINE SETUP EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
HAVE LEFT POPS OUT FOR NOW AS PLACEMENT AND TIMING CONTINUE TO VARY.

ELSENHEIMER

FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOW...AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT 20FT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15
MPH AND PRECLUDE ANY ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
ALSO...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. ON WEDNESDAY THINGS CHANGE AS 20FT
WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY...AND CONDITIONS COULD APPROACH CRITICAL OVER
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES. FOR NOW WINDS LOOK MARGINAL TO
REACH CRITICAL OUTSIDE OF A FEW HOURS...BUT WILL PASS ALONG TO THE
DAY SHIFT TO MONITOR. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/08






000
FXUS64 KAMA 311707 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1207 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY AT 10 KNOTS OR BELOW AS THEY VEER FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS FORECAST. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...A SFC TROF WILL MEANDER AROUND THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND WILL CAUSE WINDS TO GO AROUND THE DIAL DURG THIS FCST
CYCLE. ISOLD HIGH BASED SHOWERS OR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST
EAST OF THE TERMINAL SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THIS WEATHER ELEMENT OUT OF THE KAMA
AND KGUY TAFS AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PANHANDLES TODAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...LOW TO MID 80S...SO WITH DAYTIME HEATING
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
DRIER...AND ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE NOW LAGGING BEHIND PEAK HEATING
SO HAVE LOWERED POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE. LOCATION WILL VARY AS
THE TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND MEANDERS SOUTH. THE MOST FAVORABLE
LOCATIONS WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

ON WEDNESDAY...SOME DISCUSSION ON HOW FAR EAST THE SURFACE TROUGH
SHIFTS AND ANY RESULTANT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FOR
NOW...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP POPS OUT AS WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE WHICH COULD SHIFT THE POTENTIAL EAST OF OUR
AREA. ATTENTION SHIFTS TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ACROSS THE AREA. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR RAIN ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. FRIDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A GOOD 20 DEGREES
BELOW THURSDAY HIGHS BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
REBOUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE 70S AND LOW 80S WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW. MODELS HINTING AT POSSIBLE DRYLINE SETUP EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
HAVE LEFT POPS OUT FOR NOW AS PLACEMENT AND TIMING CONTINUE TO VARY.

ELSENHEIMER

FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOW...AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT 20FT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15
MPH AND PRECLUDE ANY ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
ALSO...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. ON WEDNESDAY THINGS CHANGE AS 20FT
WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY...AND CONDITIONS COULD APPROACH CRITICAL OVER
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES. FOR NOW WINDS LOOK MARGINAL TO
REACH CRITICAL OUTSIDE OF A FEW HOURS...BUT WILL PASS ALONG TO THE
DAY SHIFT TO MONITOR. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/08







000
FXUS64 KAMA 311134 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
634 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...A SFC TROF WILL MEANDER AROUND THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND WILL CAUSE WINDS TO GO AROUND THE DIAL DURG THIS FCST
CYCLE. ISOLD HIGH BASED SHOWERS OR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST
EAST OF THE TERMINAL SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THIS WEATHER ELEMENT OUT OF THE KAMA
AND KGUY TAFS AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PANHANDLES TODAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...LOW TO MID 80S...SO WITH DAYTIME HEATING
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
DRIER...AND ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE NOW LAGGING BEHIND PEAK HEATING
SO HAVE LOWERED POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE. LOCATION WILL VARY AS
THE TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND MEANDERS SOUTH. THE MOST FAVORABLE
LOCATIONS WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

ON WEDNESDAY...SOME DISCUSSION ON HOW FAR EAST THE SURFACE TROUGH
SHIFTS AND ANY RESULTANT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FOR
NOW...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP POPS OUT AS WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE WHICH COULD SHIFT THE POTENTIAL EAST OF OUR
AREA. ATTENTION SHIFTS TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ACROSS THE AREA. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR RAIN ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. FRIDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A GOOD 20 DEGREES
BELOW THURSDAY HIGHS BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
REBOUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE 70S AND LOW 80S WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW. MODELS HINTING AT POSSIBLE DRYLINE SETUP EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
HAVE LEFT POPS OUT FOR NOW AS PLACEMENT AND TIMING CONTINUE TO VARY.

ELSENHEIMER

FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOW...AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT 20FT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15
MPH AND PRECLUDE ANY ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
ALSO...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. ON WEDNESDAY THINGS CHANGE AS 20FT
WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY...AND CONDITIONS COULD APPROACH CRITICAL OVER
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES. FOR NOW WINDS LOOK MARGINAL TO
REACH CRITICAL OUTSIDE OF A FEW HOURS...BUT WILL PASS ALONG TO THE
DAY SHIFT TO MONITOR. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 311134 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
634 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...A SFC TROF WILL MEANDER AROUND THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND WILL CAUSE WINDS TO GO AROUND THE DIAL DURG THIS FCST
CYCLE. ISOLD HIGH BASED SHOWERS OR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST
EAST OF THE TERMINAL SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THIS WEATHER ELEMENT OUT OF THE KAMA
AND KGUY TAFS AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PANHANDLES TODAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...LOW TO MID 80S...SO WITH DAYTIME HEATING
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
DRIER...AND ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE NOW LAGGING BEHIND PEAK HEATING
SO HAVE LOWERED POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE. LOCATION WILL VARY AS
THE TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND MEANDERS SOUTH. THE MOST FAVORABLE
LOCATIONS WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

ON WEDNESDAY...SOME DISCUSSION ON HOW FAR EAST THE SURFACE TROUGH
SHIFTS AND ANY RESULTANT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FOR
NOW...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP POPS OUT AS WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE WHICH COULD SHIFT THE POTENTIAL EAST OF OUR
AREA. ATTENTION SHIFTS TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ACROSS THE AREA. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR RAIN ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. FRIDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A GOOD 20 DEGREES
BELOW THURSDAY HIGHS BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
REBOUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE 70S AND LOW 80S WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW. MODELS HINTING AT POSSIBLE DRYLINE SETUP EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
HAVE LEFT POPS OUT FOR NOW AS PLACEMENT AND TIMING CONTINUE TO VARY.

ELSENHEIMER

FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOW...AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT 20FT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15
MPH AND PRECLUDE ANY ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
ALSO...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. ON WEDNESDAY THINGS CHANGE AS 20FT
WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY...AND CONDITIONS COULD APPROACH CRITICAL OVER
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES. FOR NOW WINDS LOOK MARGINAL TO
REACH CRITICAL OUTSIDE OF A FEW HOURS...BUT WILL PASS ALONG TO THE
DAY SHIFT TO MONITOR. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 311134 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
634 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...A SFC TROF WILL MEANDER AROUND THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND WILL CAUSE WINDS TO GO AROUND THE DIAL DURG THIS FCST
CYCLE. ISOLD HIGH BASED SHOWERS OR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST
EAST OF THE TERMINAL SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THIS WEATHER ELEMENT OUT OF THE KAMA
AND KGUY TAFS AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PANHANDLES TODAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...LOW TO MID 80S...SO WITH DAYTIME HEATING
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
DRIER...AND ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE NOW LAGGING BEHIND PEAK HEATING
SO HAVE LOWERED POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE. LOCATION WILL VARY AS
THE TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND MEANDERS SOUTH. THE MOST FAVORABLE
LOCATIONS WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

ON WEDNESDAY...SOME DISCUSSION ON HOW FAR EAST THE SURFACE TROUGH
SHIFTS AND ANY RESULTANT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FOR
NOW...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP POPS OUT AS WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE WHICH COULD SHIFT THE POTENTIAL EAST OF OUR
AREA. ATTENTION SHIFTS TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ACROSS THE AREA. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR RAIN ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. FRIDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A GOOD 20 DEGREES
BELOW THURSDAY HIGHS BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
REBOUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE 70S AND LOW 80S WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW. MODELS HINTING AT POSSIBLE DRYLINE SETUP EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
HAVE LEFT POPS OUT FOR NOW AS PLACEMENT AND TIMING CONTINUE TO VARY.

ELSENHEIMER

FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOW...AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT 20FT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15
MPH AND PRECLUDE ANY ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
ALSO...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. ON WEDNESDAY THINGS CHANGE AS 20FT
WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY...AND CONDITIONS COULD APPROACH CRITICAL OVER
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES. FOR NOW WINDS LOOK MARGINAL TO
REACH CRITICAL OUTSIDE OF A FEW HOURS...BUT WILL PASS ALONG TO THE
DAY SHIFT TO MONITOR. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 310951
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
451 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PANHANDLES TODAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...LOW TO MID 80S...SO WITH DAYTIME HEATING
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
DRIER...AND ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE NOW LAGGING BEHIND PEAK HEATING
SO HAVE LOWERED POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE. LOCATION WILL VARY AS
THE TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND MEANDERS SOUTH. THE MOST FAVORABLE
LOCATIONS WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

ON WEDNESDAY...SOME DISCUSSION ON HOW FAR EAST THE SURFACE TROUGH
SHIFTS AND ANY RESULTANT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FOR
NOW...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP POPS OUT AS WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE WHICH COULD SHIFT THE POTENTIAL EAST OF OUR
AREA. ATTENTION SHIFTS TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ACROSS THE AREA. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR RAIN ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. FRIDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A GOOD 20 DEGREES
BELOW THURSDAY HIGHS BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
REBOUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE 70S AND LOW 80S WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW. MODELS HINTING AT POSSIBLE DRYLINE SETUP EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
HAVE LEFT POPS OUT FOR NOW AS PLACEMENT AND TIMING CONTINUE TO VARY.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOW...AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT 20FT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15
MPH AND PRECLUDE ANY ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
ALSO...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. ON WEDNESDAY THINGS CHANGE AS 20FT
WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY...AND CONDITIONS COULD APPROACH CRITICAL OVER
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES. FOR NOW WINDS LOOK MARGINAL TO
REACH CRITICAL OUTSIDE OF A FEW HOURS...BUT WILL PASS ALONG TO THE
DAY SHIFT TO MONITOR. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                85  54  88  50  83 /  20   5  10  10   5
BEAVER OK                  84  51  88  49  76 /  20  10  10  10   5
BOISE CITY OK              81  48  86  44  74 /   5   5   5  10   5
BORGER TX                  86  58  90  52  83 /  20   5  10  10   5
BOYS RANCH TX              86  51  91  48  84 /  10   5   5  10   5
CANYON TX                  85  51  88  51  84 /  20   5   5  10   0
CLARENDON TX               87  53  90  53  87 /  20  10  10  10   0
DALHART TX                 84  47  88  45  80 /   5   0   5  10   5
GUYMON OK                  83  50  88  46  75 /  10   0  10  10   5
HEREFORD TX                85  48  88  50  85 /  10   5   5  10   0
LIPSCOMB TX                84  56  89  53  78 /  20  10  10  10   5
PAMPA TX                   85  54  90  50  81 /  20  10  10  10   5
SHAMROCK TX                86  54  90  53  85 /  20  10  10  10   0
WELLINGTON TX              88  59  91  58  89 /  20  20  10  10   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

02/18







000
FXUS64 KAMA 310951
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
451 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PANHANDLES TODAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...LOW TO MID 80S...SO WITH DAYTIME HEATING
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
DRIER...AND ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE NOW LAGGING BEHIND PEAK HEATING
SO HAVE LOWERED POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE. LOCATION WILL VARY AS
THE TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND MEANDERS SOUTH. THE MOST FAVORABLE
LOCATIONS WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

ON WEDNESDAY...SOME DISCUSSION ON HOW FAR EAST THE SURFACE TROUGH
SHIFTS AND ANY RESULTANT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FOR
NOW...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP POPS OUT AS WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE WHICH COULD SHIFT THE POTENTIAL EAST OF OUR
AREA. ATTENTION SHIFTS TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ACROSS THE AREA. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR RAIN ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. FRIDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A GOOD 20 DEGREES
BELOW THURSDAY HIGHS BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
REBOUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE 70S AND LOW 80S WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW. MODELS HINTING AT POSSIBLE DRYLINE SETUP EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
HAVE LEFT POPS OUT FOR NOW AS PLACEMENT AND TIMING CONTINUE TO VARY.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOW...AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT 20FT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15
MPH AND PRECLUDE ANY ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
ALSO...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. ON WEDNESDAY THINGS CHANGE AS 20FT
WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY...AND CONDITIONS COULD APPROACH CRITICAL OVER
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES. FOR NOW WINDS LOOK MARGINAL TO
REACH CRITICAL OUTSIDE OF A FEW HOURS...BUT WILL PASS ALONG TO THE
DAY SHIFT TO MONITOR. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                85  54  88  50  83 /  20   5  10  10   5
BEAVER OK                  84  51  88  49  76 /  20  10  10  10   5
BOISE CITY OK              81  48  86  44  74 /   5   5   5  10   5
BORGER TX                  86  58  90  52  83 /  20   5  10  10   5
BOYS RANCH TX              86  51  91  48  84 /  10   5   5  10   5
CANYON TX                  85  51  88  51  84 /  20   5   5  10   0
CLARENDON TX               87  53  90  53  87 /  20  10  10  10   0
DALHART TX                 84  47  88  45  80 /   5   0   5  10   5
GUYMON OK                  83  50  88  46  75 /  10   0  10  10   5
HEREFORD TX                85  48  88  50  85 /  10   5   5  10   0
LIPSCOMB TX                84  56  89  53  78 /  20  10  10  10   5
PAMPA TX                   85  54  90  50  81 /  20  10  10  10   5
SHAMROCK TX                86  54  90  53  85 /  20  10  10  10   0
WELLINGTON TX              88  59  91  58  89 /  20  20  10  10   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

02/18






000
FXUS64 KAMA 310415
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1115 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF ISSUANCE. A SURFACE TROUGH
HAS ALREADY SHIFTED WINDS AT KGUY OUT OF THE NORTH WITH KDHT SOON TO
FOLLOW. THIS SHIFT WILL BE DELAYED AT KAMA UNTIL 11Z. BEHIND THE
TROUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AOB 10KT AND WILL SLOWLY VEER AROUND
THE DIAL OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...BUT SHOULD THIS CONVECTION
DEVELOP IT WILL STAY WELL EAST OF THE TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DIMINISH AT THE TERMINALS WITH KGUY ALREADY
REPORTING BELOW 10KTS. THIS DOWNWARD TREND ON WINDS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH KDHT AND KAMA DROPPING SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE COMBINED PANHANDLES THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS TO SHIFT WINDS OUT OF A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AOB 10KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. BY MIDDAY TUESDAY WINDS WILL START TO VEER
AROUND THE DIAL AND BE OUT OF THE EASTERLY DIRECTION BY THE END OF
THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA. A SURFACE TROUGH
OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS LEAD TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING AS THIS TROUGH SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S TO THE LOW
50S.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY BUT WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS. ALTHOUGH UPPER FORCING WILL BE
WEAK...STRONG DIURNAL HEATING CAN LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND EAST OF A DRYLINE THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO FLOW BACK INTO WEST TEXAS TUESDAY BENEATH COOLER MID-
LEVEL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT IS LOW
GIVEN THE NWP MODEL GUIDANCE AND TTU WRF DISPLAY ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AMA CWA WHERE THE BEST LIFT
AND MOISTURE WILL BE. DESPITE THE MODEL GUIDANCE OUTPUT...STILL
MAINTAINED POPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE ANY STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE MAIN THREATS. MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION SUGGESTING STORMS WILL BE WIDELY
SCATTERED...IF THEY DEVELOP AT ALL.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER FLOW BACKS FURTHER OUT OF THE WEST. BREEZY DOWNSLOPING WINDS
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS TAGGING
THE 90 DEGREE MARK WEDNESDAY. SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...A DRYLINE WILL MIX
EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. NWP MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFER ON THE PLACEMENT OF
THE DRYLINE WHERE THE GFS MIXES IT INTO OKLAHOMA WHILE THE
ECMWF...NAM...AND SREF HANG IT ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES. MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS LEADING TO A SURFACE
TROUGH TO DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS CAN ENCOURAGE
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES...RAISING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. HAVE GONE AND INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES THINKING THE DRYLINE WILL HANG UP IN THIS LOCATION
AND STRONG DIURNAL HEATING TRIGGERING A FEW STORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING.

COOLER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
BACK INTO THE 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH A SURGE OF COOLER
AIR WILL KNOCK HIGHS BACK EVEN FURTHER ON GOOD FRIDAY. RISING HEIGHTS
UNDER UPPER RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INDICATE TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S IN TIME FOR EASTER SUNDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL TO AROUND 15 TO
20 PERCENT OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.
HOWEVER NEITHER ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED AS 20 FOOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR UNDER 10 MPH.
IN ADDITION SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELEVATED TO
POSSIBLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF HIGH
FIRE DANGER...ERC VALUES ABOVE 50...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT. A DRYLINE
WILL MIX INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/03






000
FXUS64 KAMA 310415
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1115 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF ISSUANCE. A SURFACE TROUGH
HAS ALREADY SHIFTED WINDS AT KGUY OUT OF THE NORTH WITH KDHT SOON TO
FOLLOW. THIS SHIFT WILL BE DELAYED AT KAMA UNTIL 11Z. BEHIND THE
TROUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AOB 10KT AND WILL SLOWLY VEER AROUND
THE DIAL OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...BUT SHOULD THIS CONVECTION
DEVELOP IT WILL STAY WELL EAST OF THE TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DIMINISH AT THE TERMINALS WITH KGUY ALREADY
REPORTING BELOW 10KTS. THIS DOWNWARD TREND ON WINDS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH KDHT AND KAMA DROPPING SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE COMBINED PANHANDLES THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS TO SHIFT WINDS OUT OF A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AOB 10KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. BY MIDDAY TUESDAY WINDS WILL START TO VEER
AROUND THE DIAL AND BE OUT OF THE EASTERLY DIRECTION BY THE END OF
THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA. A SURFACE TROUGH
OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS LEAD TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING AS THIS TROUGH SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S TO THE LOW
50S.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY BUT WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS. ALTHOUGH UPPER FORCING WILL BE
WEAK...STRONG DIURNAL HEATING CAN LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND EAST OF A DRYLINE THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO FLOW BACK INTO WEST TEXAS TUESDAY BENEATH COOLER MID-
LEVEL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT IS LOW
GIVEN THE NWP MODEL GUIDANCE AND TTU WRF DISPLAY ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AMA CWA WHERE THE BEST LIFT
AND MOISTURE WILL BE. DESPITE THE MODEL GUIDANCE OUTPUT...STILL
MAINTAINED POPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE ANY STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE MAIN THREATS. MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION SUGGESTING STORMS WILL BE WIDELY
SCATTERED...IF THEY DEVELOP AT ALL.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER FLOW BACKS FURTHER OUT OF THE WEST. BREEZY DOWNSLOPING WINDS
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS TAGGING
THE 90 DEGREE MARK WEDNESDAY. SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...A DRYLINE WILL MIX
EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. NWP MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFER ON THE PLACEMENT OF
THE DRYLINE WHERE THE GFS MIXES IT INTO OKLAHOMA WHILE THE
ECMWF...NAM...AND SREF HANG IT ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES. MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS LEADING TO A SURFACE
TROUGH TO DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS CAN ENCOURAGE
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES...RAISING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. HAVE GONE AND INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES THINKING THE DRYLINE WILL HANG UP IN THIS LOCATION
AND STRONG DIURNAL HEATING TRIGGERING A FEW STORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING.

COOLER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
BACK INTO THE 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH A SURGE OF COOLER
AIR WILL KNOCK HIGHS BACK EVEN FURTHER ON GOOD FRIDAY. RISING HEIGHTS
UNDER UPPER RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INDICATE TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S IN TIME FOR EASTER SUNDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL TO AROUND 15 TO
20 PERCENT OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.
HOWEVER NEITHER ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED AS 20 FOOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR UNDER 10 MPH.
IN ADDITION SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELEVATED TO
POSSIBLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF HIGH
FIRE DANGER...ERC VALUES ABOVE 50...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT. A DRYLINE
WILL MIX INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/03







000
FXUS64 KAMA 310415
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1115 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF ISSUANCE. A SURFACE TROUGH
HAS ALREADY SHIFTED WINDS AT KGUY OUT OF THE NORTH WITH KDHT SOON TO
FOLLOW. THIS SHIFT WILL BE DELAYED AT KAMA UNTIL 11Z. BEHIND THE
TROUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AOB 10KT AND WILL SLOWLY VEER AROUND
THE DIAL OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...BUT SHOULD THIS CONVECTION
DEVELOP IT WILL STAY WELL EAST OF THE TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DIMINISH AT THE TERMINALS WITH KGUY ALREADY
REPORTING BELOW 10KTS. THIS DOWNWARD TREND ON WINDS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH KDHT AND KAMA DROPPING SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE COMBINED PANHANDLES THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS TO SHIFT WINDS OUT OF A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AOB 10KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. BY MIDDAY TUESDAY WINDS WILL START TO VEER
AROUND THE DIAL AND BE OUT OF THE EASTERLY DIRECTION BY THE END OF
THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA. A SURFACE TROUGH
OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS LEAD TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING AS THIS TROUGH SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S TO THE LOW
50S.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY BUT WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS. ALTHOUGH UPPER FORCING WILL BE
WEAK...STRONG DIURNAL HEATING CAN LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND EAST OF A DRYLINE THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO FLOW BACK INTO WEST TEXAS TUESDAY BENEATH COOLER MID-
LEVEL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT IS LOW
GIVEN THE NWP MODEL GUIDANCE AND TTU WRF DISPLAY ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AMA CWA WHERE THE BEST LIFT
AND MOISTURE WILL BE. DESPITE THE MODEL GUIDANCE OUTPUT...STILL
MAINTAINED POPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE ANY STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE MAIN THREATS. MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION SUGGESTING STORMS WILL BE WIDELY
SCATTERED...IF THEY DEVELOP AT ALL.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER FLOW BACKS FURTHER OUT OF THE WEST. BREEZY DOWNSLOPING WINDS
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS TAGGING
THE 90 DEGREE MARK WEDNESDAY. SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...A DRYLINE WILL MIX
EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. NWP MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFER ON THE PLACEMENT OF
THE DRYLINE WHERE THE GFS MIXES IT INTO OKLAHOMA WHILE THE
ECMWF...NAM...AND SREF HANG IT ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES. MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS LEADING TO A SURFACE
TROUGH TO DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS CAN ENCOURAGE
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES...RAISING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. HAVE GONE AND INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES THINKING THE DRYLINE WILL HANG UP IN THIS LOCATION
AND STRONG DIURNAL HEATING TRIGGERING A FEW STORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING.

COOLER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
BACK INTO THE 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH A SURGE OF COOLER
AIR WILL KNOCK HIGHS BACK EVEN FURTHER ON GOOD FRIDAY. RISING HEIGHTS
UNDER UPPER RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INDICATE TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S IN TIME FOR EASTER SUNDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL TO AROUND 15 TO
20 PERCENT OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.
HOWEVER NEITHER ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED AS 20 FOOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR UNDER 10 MPH.
IN ADDITION SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELEVATED TO
POSSIBLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF HIGH
FIRE DANGER...ERC VALUES ABOVE 50...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT. A DRYLINE
WILL MIX INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/03






000
FXUS64 KAMA 310415
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1115 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF ISSUANCE. A SURFACE TROUGH
HAS ALREADY SHIFTED WINDS AT KGUY OUT OF THE NORTH WITH KDHT SOON TO
FOLLOW. THIS SHIFT WILL BE DELAYED AT KAMA UNTIL 11Z. BEHIND THE
TROUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AOB 10KT AND WILL SLOWLY VEER AROUND
THE DIAL OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...BUT SHOULD THIS CONVECTION
DEVELOP IT WILL STAY WELL EAST OF THE TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DIMINISH AT THE TERMINALS WITH KGUY ALREADY
REPORTING BELOW 10KTS. THIS DOWNWARD TREND ON WINDS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH KDHT AND KAMA DROPPING SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE COMBINED PANHANDLES THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS TO SHIFT WINDS OUT OF A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AOB 10KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. BY MIDDAY TUESDAY WINDS WILL START TO VEER
AROUND THE DIAL AND BE OUT OF THE EASTERLY DIRECTION BY THE END OF
THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA. A SURFACE TROUGH
OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS LEAD TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING AS THIS TROUGH SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S TO THE LOW
50S.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY BUT WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS. ALTHOUGH UPPER FORCING WILL BE
WEAK...STRONG DIURNAL HEATING CAN LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND EAST OF A DRYLINE THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO FLOW BACK INTO WEST TEXAS TUESDAY BENEATH COOLER MID-
LEVEL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT IS LOW
GIVEN THE NWP MODEL GUIDANCE AND TTU WRF DISPLAY ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AMA CWA WHERE THE BEST LIFT
AND MOISTURE WILL BE. DESPITE THE MODEL GUIDANCE OUTPUT...STILL
MAINTAINED POPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE ANY STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE MAIN THREATS. MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION SUGGESTING STORMS WILL BE WIDELY
SCATTERED...IF THEY DEVELOP AT ALL.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER FLOW BACKS FURTHER OUT OF THE WEST. BREEZY DOWNSLOPING WINDS
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS TAGGING
THE 90 DEGREE MARK WEDNESDAY. SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...A DRYLINE WILL MIX
EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. NWP MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFER ON THE PLACEMENT OF
THE DRYLINE WHERE THE GFS MIXES IT INTO OKLAHOMA WHILE THE
ECMWF...NAM...AND SREF HANG IT ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES. MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS LEADING TO A SURFACE
TROUGH TO DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS CAN ENCOURAGE
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES...RAISING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. HAVE GONE AND INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES THINKING THE DRYLINE WILL HANG UP IN THIS LOCATION
AND STRONG DIURNAL HEATING TRIGGERING A FEW STORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING.

COOLER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
BACK INTO THE 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH A SURGE OF COOLER
AIR WILL KNOCK HIGHS BACK EVEN FURTHER ON GOOD FRIDAY. RISING HEIGHTS
UNDER UPPER RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INDICATE TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S IN TIME FOR EASTER SUNDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL TO AROUND 15 TO
20 PERCENT OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.
HOWEVER NEITHER ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED AS 20 FOOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR UNDER 10 MPH.
IN ADDITION SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELEVATED TO
POSSIBLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF HIGH
FIRE DANGER...ERC VALUES ABOVE 50...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT. A DRYLINE
WILL MIX INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/03







000
FXUS64 KAMA 302313
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
613 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DIMINISH AT THE TERMINALS WITH KGUY ALREADY
REPORTING BELOW 10KTS. THIS DOWNWARD TREND ON WINDS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH KDHT AND KAMA DROPPING SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE COMBINED PANHANDLES THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS TO SHIFT WINDS OUT OF A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AOB 10KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. BY MIDDAY TUESDAY WINDS WILL START TO VEER
AROUND THE DIAL AND BE OUT OF THE EASTERLY DIRECTION BY THE END OF
THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA. A SURFACE TROUGH
OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS LEAD TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING AS THIS TROUGH SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S TO THE LOW
50S.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY BUT WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS. ALTHOUGH UPPER FORCING WILL BE
WEAK...STRONG DIURNAL HEATING CAN LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND EAST OF A DRYLINE THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO FLOW BACK INTO WEST TEXAS TUESDAY BENEATH COOLER MID-
LEVEL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT IS LOW
GIVEN THE NWP MODEL GUIDANCE AND TTU WRF DISPLAY ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AMA CWA WHERE THE BEST LIFT
AND MOISTURE WILL BE. DESPITE THE MODEL GUIDANCE OUTPUT...STILL
MAINTAINED POPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE ANY STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE MAIN THREATS. MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION SUGGESTING STORMS WILL BE WIDELY
SCATTERED...IF THEY DEVELOP AT ALL.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER FLOW BACKS FURTHER OUT OF THE WEST. BREEZY DOWNSLOPING WINDS
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS TAGGING
THE 90 DEGREE MARK WEDNESDAY. SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...A DRYLINE WILL MIX
EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. NWP MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFER ON THE PLACEMENT OF
THE DRYLINE WHERE THE GFS MIXES IT INTO OKLAHOMA WHILE THE
ECMWF...NAM...AND SREF HANG IT ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES. MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS LEADING TO A SURFACE
TROUGH TO DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS CAN ENCOURAGE
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES...RAISING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. HAVE GONE AND INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES THINKING THE DRYLINE WILL HANG UP IN THIS LOCATION
AND STRONG DIURNAL HEATING TRIGGERING A FEW STORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING.

COOLER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
BACK INTO THE 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH A SURGE OF COOLER
AIR WILL KNOCK HIGHS BACK EVEN FURTHER ON GOOD FRIDAY. RISING HEIGHTS
UNDER UPPER RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INDICATE TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S IN TIME FOR EASTER SUNDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL TO AROUND 15 TO
20 PERCENT OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.
HOWEVER NEITHER ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED AS 20 FOOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR UNDER 10 MPH.
IN ADDITION SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELEVATED TO
POSSIBLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF HIGH
FIRE DANGER...ERC VALUES ABOVE 50...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT. A DRYLINE
WILL MIX INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/03






000
FXUS64 KAMA 302313
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
613 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DIMINISH AT THE TERMINALS WITH KGUY ALREADY
REPORTING BELOW 10KTS. THIS DOWNWARD TREND ON WINDS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH KDHT AND KAMA DROPPING SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE COMBINED PANHANDLES THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS TO SHIFT WINDS OUT OF A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AOB 10KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. BY MIDDAY TUESDAY WINDS WILL START TO VEER
AROUND THE DIAL AND BE OUT OF THE EASTERLY DIRECTION BY THE END OF
THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA. A SURFACE TROUGH
OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS LEAD TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING AS THIS TROUGH SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S TO THE LOW
50S.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY BUT WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS. ALTHOUGH UPPER FORCING WILL BE
WEAK...STRONG DIURNAL HEATING CAN LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND EAST OF A DRYLINE THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO FLOW BACK INTO WEST TEXAS TUESDAY BENEATH COOLER MID-
LEVEL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT IS LOW
GIVEN THE NWP MODEL GUIDANCE AND TTU WRF DISPLAY ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AMA CWA WHERE THE BEST LIFT
AND MOISTURE WILL BE. DESPITE THE MODEL GUIDANCE OUTPUT...STILL
MAINTAINED POPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE ANY STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE MAIN THREATS. MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION SUGGESTING STORMS WILL BE WIDELY
SCATTERED...IF THEY DEVELOP AT ALL.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER FLOW BACKS FURTHER OUT OF THE WEST. BREEZY DOWNSLOPING WINDS
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS TAGGING
THE 90 DEGREE MARK WEDNESDAY. SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...A DRYLINE WILL MIX
EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. NWP MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFER ON THE PLACEMENT OF
THE DRYLINE WHERE THE GFS MIXES IT INTO OKLAHOMA WHILE THE
ECMWF...NAM...AND SREF HANG IT ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES. MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS LEADING TO A SURFACE
TROUGH TO DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS CAN ENCOURAGE
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES...RAISING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. HAVE GONE AND INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES THINKING THE DRYLINE WILL HANG UP IN THIS LOCATION
AND STRONG DIURNAL HEATING TRIGGERING A FEW STORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING.

COOLER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
BACK INTO THE 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH A SURGE OF COOLER
AIR WILL KNOCK HIGHS BACK EVEN FURTHER ON GOOD FRIDAY. RISING HEIGHTS
UNDER UPPER RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INDICATE TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S IN TIME FOR EASTER SUNDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL TO AROUND 15 TO
20 PERCENT OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.
HOWEVER NEITHER ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED AS 20 FOOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR UNDER 10 MPH.
IN ADDITION SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELEVATED TO
POSSIBLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF HIGH
FIRE DANGER...ERC VALUES ABOVE 50...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT. A DRYLINE
WILL MIX INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/03







000
FXUS64 KAMA 302313
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
613 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DIMINISH AT THE TERMINALS WITH KGUY ALREADY
REPORTING BELOW 10KTS. THIS DOWNWARD TREND ON WINDS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH KDHT AND KAMA DROPPING SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE COMBINED PANHANDLES THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS TO SHIFT WINDS OUT OF A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AOB 10KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. BY MIDDAY TUESDAY WINDS WILL START TO VEER
AROUND THE DIAL AND BE OUT OF THE EASTERLY DIRECTION BY THE END OF
THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA. A SURFACE TROUGH
OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS LEAD TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING AS THIS TROUGH SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S TO THE LOW
50S.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY BUT WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS. ALTHOUGH UPPER FORCING WILL BE
WEAK...STRONG DIURNAL HEATING CAN LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND EAST OF A DRYLINE THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO FLOW BACK INTO WEST TEXAS TUESDAY BENEATH COOLER MID-
LEVEL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT IS LOW
GIVEN THE NWP MODEL GUIDANCE AND TTU WRF DISPLAY ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AMA CWA WHERE THE BEST LIFT
AND MOISTURE WILL BE. DESPITE THE MODEL GUIDANCE OUTPUT...STILL
MAINTAINED POPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE ANY STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE MAIN THREATS. MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION SUGGESTING STORMS WILL BE WIDELY
SCATTERED...IF THEY DEVELOP AT ALL.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER FLOW BACKS FURTHER OUT OF THE WEST. BREEZY DOWNSLOPING WINDS
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS TAGGING
THE 90 DEGREE MARK WEDNESDAY. SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...A DRYLINE WILL MIX
EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. NWP MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFER ON THE PLACEMENT OF
THE DRYLINE WHERE THE GFS MIXES IT INTO OKLAHOMA WHILE THE
ECMWF...NAM...AND SREF HANG IT ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES. MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS LEADING TO A SURFACE
TROUGH TO DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS CAN ENCOURAGE
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES...RAISING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. HAVE GONE AND INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES THINKING THE DRYLINE WILL HANG UP IN THIS LOCATION
AND STRONG DIURNAL HEATING TRIGGERING A FEW STORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING.

COOLER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
BACK INTO THE 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH A SURGE OF COOLER
AIR WILL KNOCK HIGHS BACK EVEN FURTHER ON GOOD FRIDAY. RISING HEIGHTS
UNDER UPPER RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INDICATE TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S IN TIME FOR EASTER SUNDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL TO AROUND 15 TO
20 PERCENT OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.
HOWEVER NEITHER ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED AS 20 FOOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR UNDER 10 MPH.
IN ADDITION SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELEVATED TO
POSSIBLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF HIGH
FIRE DANGER...ERC VALUES ABOVE 50...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT. A DRYLINE
WILL MIX INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/03






000
FXUS64 KAMA 302110
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
410 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA. A SURFACE TROUGH
OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS LEAD TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING AS THIS TROUGH SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S TO THE LOW
50S.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY BUT WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS. ALTHOUGH UPPER FORCING WILL BE
WEAK...STRONG DIURNAL HEATING CAN LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND EAST OF A DRYLINE THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO FLOW BACK INTO WEST TEXAS TUESDAY BENEATH COOLER MID-
LEVEL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT IS LOW
GIVEN THE NWP MODEL GUIDANCE AND TTU WRF DISPLAY ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AMA CWA WHERE THE BEST LIFT
AND MOISTURE WILL BE. DESPITE THE MODEL GUIDANCE OUTPUT...STILL
MAINTAINED POPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE ANY STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE MAIN THREATS. MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION SUGGESTING STORMS WILL BE WIDELY
SCATTERED...IF THEY DEVELOP AT ALL.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER FLOW BACKS FURTHER OUT OF THE WEST. BREEZY DOWNSLOPING WINDS
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS TAGGING
THE 90 DEGREE MARK WEDNESDAY. SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...A DRYLINE WILL MIX
EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. NWP MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFER ON THE PLACEMENT OF
THE DRYLINE WHERE THE GFS MIXES IT INTO OKLAHOMA WHILE THE
ECMWF...NAM...AND SREF HANG IT ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES. MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS LEADING TO A SURFACE
TROUGH TO DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS CAN ENCOURAGE
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES...RAISING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. HAVE GONE AND INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES THINKING THE DRYLINE WILL HANG UP IN THIS LOCATION
AND STRONG DIURNAL HEATING TRIGGERING A FEW STORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING.

COOLER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
BACK INTO THE 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH A SURGE OF COOLER
AIR WILL KNOCK HIGHS BACK EVEN FURTHER ON GOOD FRIDAY. RISING HEIGHTS
UNDER UPPER RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INDICATE TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S IN TIME FOR EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL TO AROUND 15 TO
20 PERCENT OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.
HOWEVER NEITHER ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED AS 20 FOOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR UNDER 10 MPH.
IN ADDITION SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELEVATED TO
POSSIBLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF HIGH
FIRE DANGER...ERC VALUES ABOVE 50...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT. A DRYLINE
WILL MIX INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING.

CLK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                48  87  51  88  49 /   5  10  10   5  10
BEAVER OK                  43  83  49  86  46 /   5   5   5   5  20
BOISE CITY OK              44  82  47  84  43 /   0   5   5   5  10
BORGER TX                  51  86  54  89  50 /   0  10   5   5  10
BOYS RANCH TX              45  85  48  89  47 /   5   5   5   5   5
CANYON TX                  47  87  49  88  49 /   5  10  10   5  10
CLARENDON TX               51  87  53  90  52 /   5  20  20   5  10
DALHART TX                 42  84  44  86  44 /   5   5   5   0   5
GUYMON OK                  43  85  49  85  44 /   5   5   5   5  10
HEREFORD TX                47  86  48  87  49 /   5  10  10   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                47  84  51  89  49 /   5  20  20   5  20
PAMPA TX                   49  85  51  89  48 /   5  20  10   5  10
SHAMROCK TX                50  87  53  90  51 /   5  30  20   5  20
WELLINGTON TX              52  88  55  91  54 /   5  30  20  10  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/05







000
FXUS64 KAMA 302110
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
410 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA. A SURFACE TROUGH
OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS LEAD TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING AS THIS TROUGH SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S TO THE LOW
50S.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY BUT WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS. ALTHOUGH UPPER FORCING WILL BE
WEAK...STRONG DIURNAL HEATING CAN LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND EAST OF A DRYLINE THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO FLOW BACK INTO WEST TEXAS TUESDAY BENEATH COOLER MID-
LEVEL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT IS LOW
GIVEN THE NWP MODEL GUIDANCE AND TTU WRF DISPLAY ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AMA CWA WHERE THE BEST LIFT
AND MOISTURE WILL BE. DESPITE THE MODEL GUIDANCE OUTPUT...STILL
MAINTAINED POPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE ANY STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE MAIN THREATS. MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION SUGGESTING STORMS WILL BE WIDELY
SCATTERED...IF THEY DEVELOP AT ALL.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER FLOW BACKS FURTHER OUT OF THE WEST. BREEZY DOWNSLOPING WINDS
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS TAGGING
THE 90 DEGREE MARK WEDNESDAY. SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...A DRYLINE WILL MIX
EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. NWP MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFER ON THE PLACEMENT OF
THE DRYLINE WHERE THE GFS MIXES IT INTO OKLAHOMA WHILE THE
ECMWF...NAM...AND SREF HANG IT ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES. MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS LEADING TO A SURFACE
TROUGH TO DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS CAN ENCOURAGE
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES...RAISING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. HAVE GONE AND INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES THINKING THE DRYLINE WILL HANG UP IN THIS LOCATION
AND STRONG DIURNAL HEATING TRIGGERING A FEW STORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING.

COOLER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
BACK INTO THE 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH A SURGE OF COOLER
AIR WILL KNOCK HIGHS BACK EVEN FURTHER ON GOOD FRIDAY. RISING HEIGHTS
UNDER UPPER RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INDICATE TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S IN TIME FOR EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL TO AROUND 15 TO
20 PERCENT OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.
HOWEVER NEITHER ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED AS 20 FOOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR UNDER 10 MPH.
IN ADDITION SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELEVATED TO
POSSIBLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF HIGH
FIRE DANGER...ERC VALUES ABOVE 50...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT. A DRYLINE
WILL MIX INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING.

CLK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                48  87  51  88  49 /   5  10  10   5  10
BEAVER OK                  43  83  49  86  46 /   5   5   5   5  20
BOISE CITY OK              44  82  47  84  43 /   0   5   5   5  10
BORGER TX                  51  86  54  89  50 /   0  10   5   5  10
BOYS RANCH TX              45  85  48  89  47 /   5   5   5   5   5
CANYON TX                  47  87  49  88  49 /   5  10  10   5  10
CLARENDON TX               51  87  53  90  52 /   5  20  20   5  10
DALHART TX                 42  84  44  86  44 /   5   5   5   0   5
GUYMON OK                  43  85  49  85  44 /   5   5   5   5  10
HEREFORD TX                47  86  48  87  49 /   5  10  10   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                47  84  51  89  49 /   5  20  20   5  20
PAMPA TX                   49  85  51  89  48 /   5  20  10   5  10
SHAMROCK TX                50  87  53  90  51 /   5  30  20   5  20
WELLINGTON TX              52  88  55  91  54 /   5  30  20  10  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/05






000
FXUS64 KAMA 302110
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
410 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA. A SURFACE TROUGH
OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS LEAD TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING AS THIS TROUGH SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S TO THE LOW
50S.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY BUT WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS. ALTHOUGH UPPER FORCING WILL BE
WEAK...STRONG DIURNAL HEATING CAN LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND EAST OF A DRYLINE THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO FLOW BACK INTO WEST TEXAS TUESDAY BENEATH COOLER MID-
LEVEL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT IS LOW
GIVEN THE NWP MODEL GUIDANCE AND TTU WRF DISPLAY ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AMA CWA WHERE THE BEST LIFT
AND MOISTURE WILL BE. DESPITE THE MODEL GUIDANCE OUTPUT...STILL
MAINTAINED POPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE ANY STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE MAIN THREATS. MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION SUGGESTING STORMS WILL BE WIDELY
SCATTERED...IF THEY DEVELOP AT ALL.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER FLOW BACKS FURTHER OUT OF THE WEST. BREEZY DOWNSLOPING WINDS
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS TAGGING
THE 90 DEGREE MARK WEDNESDAY. SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...A DRYLINE WILL MIX
EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. NWP MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFER ON THE PLACEMENT OF
THE DRYLINE WHERE THE GFS MIXES IT INTO OKLAHOMA WHILE THE
ECMWF...NAM...AND SREF HANG IT ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES. MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS LEADING TO A SURFACE
TROUGH TO DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS CAN ENCOURAGE
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES...RAISING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. HAVE GONE AND INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES THINKING THE DRYLINE WILL HANG UP IN THIS LOCATION
AND STRONG DIURNAL HEATING TRIGGERING A FEW STORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING.

COOLER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
BACK INTO THE 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH A SURGE OF COOLER
AIR WILL KNOCK HIGHS BACK EVEN FURTHER ON GOOD FRIDAY. RISING HEIGHTS
UNDER UPPER RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INDICATE TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S IN TIME FOR EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL TO AROUND 15 TO
20 PERCENT OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.
HOWEVER NEITHER ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED AS 20 FOOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR UNDER 10 MPH.
IN ADDITION SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELEVATED TO
POSSIBLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF HIGH
FIRE DANGER...ERC VALUES ABOVE 50...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT. A DRYLINE
WILL MIX INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING.

CLK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                48  87  51  88  49 /   5  10  10   5  10
BEAVER OK                  43  83  49  86  46 /   5   5   5   5  20
BOISE CITY OK              44  82  47  84  43 /   0   5   5   5  10
BORGER TX                  51  86  54  89  50 /   0  10   5   5  10
BOYS RANCH TX              45  85  48  89  47 /   5   5   5   5   5
CANYON TX                  47  87  49  88  49 /   5  10  10   5  10
CLARENDON TX               51  87  53  90  52 /   5  20  20   5  10
DALHART TX                 42  84  44  86  44 /   5   5   5   0   5
GUYMON OK                  43  85  49  85  44 /   5   5   5   5  10
HEREFORD TX                47  86  48  87  49 /   5  10  10   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                47  84  51  89  49 /   5  20  20   5  20
PAMPA TX                   49  85  51  89  48 /   5  20  10   5  10
SHAMROCK TX                50  87  53  90  51 /   5  30  20   5  20
WELLINGTON TX              52  88  55  91  54 /   5  30  20  10  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/05






000
FXUS64 KAMA 301719
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1219 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS/WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NM THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT
THESE TO DISSIPATE BEFORE EVER NEARING KDHT OR KAMA. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST OVER 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE WEAKENING TO AOB 10 KTS
EARLY THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY TURNING TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AS A
SURFACE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING HAVE REMAINED A BIT WARMER THAN
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL
TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S...THOUGH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING TOO HIGH WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE FORECAST GETS A BIT MORE INTERESTING ON
TUESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE DE-AMPLIFIES THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SOME. MODELS
ARE DISAGREEING ON THE PLACEMENT AND PROGRESSION OF A SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. RESULTANT VARIANCES IN LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS...SOUTHEAST VS. SOUTHWEST...CREATING ISSUES ON WHERE TO DRAW
THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 00Z
ECMWF CAME IN A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE NAM...SHOWING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...BUT LAGS A BIT BEHIND THE
NAM. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES PUSHING THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES...HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
SOUTHEASTERN TO EASTERN ZONES AND AS SUCH HAVE LEFT CHANCE POPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE. WIND THREAT SEEMS TO BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN
FROM ANY STRONG STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP...THOUGH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. ON WEDNESDAY...DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE HIGH 80S WITH EVEN A FEW 90S EXPECTED.
THIS WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES ON
THURSDAY...LOOKING ONLY AT THIS TIME TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND
REDUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THOSE AREAS.

FRIDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE PANHANDLES. BROUGHT POPS UP A
LITTLE OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS WHILE STILL REMAINING BELOW SLIGHT
CHANCE...BUT MAY BE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
MAINLY JUST OVER FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL CLOSER
TO NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF APRIL AND REBOUND AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

ELSENHEIMER

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS ALL OF THE
PANHANDLES...BUT 20 FOOT WINDS GREATER THAN 15 MPH ARE ONLY EXPECTED
ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...AND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. ON TUESDAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
REMAIN LOW...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 MPH. ALSO
FOR TUESDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO THE PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...AND 20 FOOT WESTERLY WINDS
GREATER THAN 15 MPH.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/05






000
FXUS64 KAMA 301719
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1219 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS/WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NM THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT
THESE TO DISSIPATE BEFORE EVER NEARING KDHT OR KAMA. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST OVER 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE WEAKENING TO AOB 10 KTS
EARLY THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY TURNING TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AS A
SURFACE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING HAVE REMAINED A BIT WARMER THAN
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL
TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S...THOUGH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING TOO HIGH WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE FORECAST GETS A BIT MORE INTERESTING ON
TUESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE DE-AMPLIFIES THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SOME. MODELS
ARE DISAGREEING ON THE PLACEMENT AND PROGRESSION OF A SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. RESULTANT VARIANCES IN LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS...SOUTHEAST VS. SOUTHWEST...CREATING ISSUES ON WHERE TO DRAW
THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 00Z
ECMWF CAME IN A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE NAM...SHOWING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...BUT LAGS A BIT BEHIND THE
NAM. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES PUSHING THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES...HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
SOUTHEASTERN TO EASTERN ZONES AND AS SUCH HAVE LEFT CHANCE POPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE. WIND THREAT SEEMS TO BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN
FROM ANY STRONG STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP...THOUGH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. ON WEDNESDAY...DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE HIGH 80S WITH EVEN A FEW 90S EXPECTED.
THIS WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES ON
THURSDAY...LOOKING ONLY AT THIS TIME TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND
REDUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THOSE AREAS.

FRIDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE PANHANDLES. BROUGHT POPS UP A
LITTLE OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS WHILE STILL REMAINING BELOW SLIGHT
CHANCE...BUT MAY BE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
MAINLY JUST OVER FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL CLOSER
TO NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF APRIL AND REBOUND AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

ELSENHEIMER

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS ALL OF THE
PANHANDLES...BUT 20 FOOT WINDS GREATER THAN 15 MPH ARE ONLY EXPECTED
ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...AND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. ON TUESDAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
REMAIN LOW...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 MPH. ALSO
FOR TUESDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO THE PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...AND 20 FOOT WESTERLY WINDS
GREATER THAN 15 MPH.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/05







000
FXUS64 KAMA 301719
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1219 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS/WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NM THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT
THESE TO DISSIPATE BEFORE EVER NEARING KDHT OR KAMA. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST OVER 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE WEAKENING TO AOB 10 KTS
EARLY THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY TURNING TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AS A
SURFACE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING HAVE REMAINED A BIT WARMER THAN
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL
TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S...THOUGH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING TOO HIGH WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE FORECAST GETS A BIT MORE INTERESTING ON
TUESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE DE-AMPLIFIES THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SOME. MODELS
ARE DISAGREEING ON THE PLACEMENT AND PROGRESSION OF A SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. RESULTANT VARIANCES IN LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS...SOUTHEAST VS. SOUTHWEST...CREATING ISSUES ON WHERE TO DRAW
THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 00Z
ECMWF CAME IN A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE NAM...SHOWING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...BUT LAGS A BIT BEHIND THE
NAM. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES PUSHING THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES...HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
SOUTHEASTERN TO EASTERN ZONES AND AS SUCH HAVE LEFT CHANCE POPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE. WIND THREAT SEEMS TO BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN
FROM ANY STRONG STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP...THOUGH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. ON WEDNESDAY...DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE HIGH 80S WITH EVEN A FEW 90S EXPECTED.
THIS WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES ON
THURSDAY...LOOKING ONLY AT THIS TIME TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND
REDUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THOSE AREAS.

FRIDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE PANHANDLES. BROUGHT POPS UP A
LITTLE OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS WHILE STILL REMAINING BELOW SLIGHT
CHANCE...BUT MAY BE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
MAINLY JUST OVER FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL CLOSER
TO NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF APRIL AND REBOUND AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

ELSENHEIMER

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS ALL OF THE
PANHANDLES...BUT 20 FOOT WINDS GREATER THAN 15 MPH ARE ONLY EXPECTED
ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...AND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. ON TUESDAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
REMAIN LOW...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 MPH. ALSO
FOR TUESDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO THE PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...AND 20 FOOT WESTERLY WINDS
GREATER THAN 15 MPH.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/05






000
FXUS64 KAMA 301719
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1219 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS/WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NM THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT
THESE TO DISSIPATE BEFORE EVER NEARING KDHT OR KAMA. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST OVER 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE WEAKENING TO AOB 10 KTS
EARLY THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY TURNING TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AS A
SURFACE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING HAVE REMAINED A BIT WARMER THAN
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL
TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S...THOUGH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING TOO HIGH WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE FORECAST GETS A BIT MORE INTERESTING ON
TUESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE DE-AMPLIFIES THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SOME. MODELS
ARE DISAGREEING ON THE PLACEMENT AND PROGRESSION OF A SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. RESULTANT VARIANCES IN LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS...SOUTHEAST VS. SOUTHWEST...CREATING ISSUES ON WHERE TO DRAW
THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 00Z
ECMWF CAME IN A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE NAM...SHOWING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...BUT LAGS A BIT BEHIND THE
NAM. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES PUSHING THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES...HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
SOUTHEASTERN TO EASTERN ZONES AND AS SUCH HAVE LEFT CHANCE POPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE. WIND THREAT SEEMS TO BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN
FROM ANY STRONG STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP...THOUGH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. ON WEDNESDAY...DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE HIGH 80S WITH EVEN A FEW 90S EXPECTED.
THIS WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES ON
THURSDAY...LOOKING ONLY AT THIS TIME TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND
REDUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THOSE AREAS.

FRIDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE PANHANDLES. BROUGHT POPS UP A
LITTLE OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS WHILE STILL REMAINING BELOW SLIGHT
CHANCE...BUT MAY BE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
MAINLY JUST OVER FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL CLOSER
TO NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF APRIL AND REBOUND AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

ELSENHEIMER

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS ALL OF THE
PANHANDLES...BUT 20 FOOT WINDS GREATER THAN 15 MPH ARE ONLY EXPECTED
ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...AND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. ON TUESDAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
REMAIN LOW...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 MPH. ALSO
FOR TUESDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO THE PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...AND 20 FOOT WESTERLY WINDS
GREATER THAN 15 MPH.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/05







000
FXUS64 KAMA 301131 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
631 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
DURG THIS FCST CYCLE. SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE AROUND MID MORNING AS A
SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.
WINDS WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EWD ACROSS NRN TAF
SITES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING HAVE REMAINED A BIT WARMER THAN
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL
TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S...THOUGH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING TOO HIGH WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE FORECAST GETS A BIT MORE INTERESTING ON
TUESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE DE-AMPLIFIES THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SOME. MODELS
ARE DISAGREEING ON THE PLACEMENT AND PROGRESSION OF A SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. RESULTANT VARIANCES IN LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS...SOUTHEAST VS. SOUTHWEST...CREATING ISSUES ON WHERE TO DRAW
THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 00Z
ECMWF CAME IN A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE NAM...SHOWING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...BUT LAGS A BIT BEHIND THE
NAM. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES PUSHING THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES...HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
SOUTHEASTERN TO EASTERN ZONES AND AS SUCH HAVE LEFT CHANCE POPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE. WIND THREAT SEEMS TO BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN
FROM ANY STRONG STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP...THOUGH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. ON WEDNESDAY...DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE HIGH 80S WITH EVEN A FEW 90S EXPECTED.
THIS WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES ON
THURSDAY...LOOKING ONLY AT THIS TIME TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND
REDUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THOSE AREAS.

FRIDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE PANHANDLES. BROUGHT POPS UP A
LITTLE OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS WHILE STILL REMAINING BELOW SLIGHT
CHANCE...BUT MAY BE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
MAINLY JUST OVER FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL CLOSER
TO NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF APRIL AND REBOUND AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

ELSENHEIMER

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS ALL OF THE
PANHANDLES...BUT 20 FOOT WINDS GREATER THAN 15 MPH ARE ONLY EXPECTED
ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...AND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. ON TUESDAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
REMAIN LOW...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 MPH. ALSO
FOR TUESDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO THE PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...AND 20 FOOT WESTERLY WINDS
GREATER THAN 15 MPH.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 301131 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
631 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
DURG THIS FCST CYCLE. SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE AROUND MID MORNING AS A
SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.
WINDS WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EWD ACROSS NRN TAF
SITES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING HAVE REMAINED A BIT WARMER THAN
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL
TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S...THOUGH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING TOO HIGH WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE FORECAST GETS A BIT MORE INTERESTING ON
TUESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE DE-AMPLIFIES THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SOME. MODELS
ARE DISAGREEING ON THE PLACEMENT AND PROGRESSION OF A SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. RESULTANT VARIANCES IN LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS...SOUTHEAST VS. SOUTHWEST...CREATING ISSUES ON WHERE TO DRAW
THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 00Z
ECMWF CAME IN A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE NAM...SHOWING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...BUT LAGS A BIT BEHIND THE
NAM. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES PUSHING THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES...HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
SOUTHEASTERN TO EASTERN ZONES AND AS SUCH HAVE LEFT CHANCE POPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE. WIND THREAT SEEMS TO BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN
FROM ANY STRONG STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP...THOUGH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. ON WEDNESDAY...DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE HIGH 80S WITH EVEN A FEW 90S EXPECTED.
THIS WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES ON
THURSDAY...LOOKING ONLY AT THIS TIME TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND
REDUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THOSE AREAS.

FRIDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE PANHANDLES. BROUGHT POPS UP A
LITTLE OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS WHILE STILL REMAINING BELOW SLIGHT
CHANCE...BUT MAY BE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
MAINLY JUST OVER FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL CLOSER
TO NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF APRIL AND REBOUND AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

ELSENHEIMER

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS ALL OF THE
PANHANDLES...BUT 20 FOOT WINDS GREATER THAN 15 MPH ARE ONLY EXPECTED
ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...AND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. ON TUESDAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
REMAIN LOW...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 MPH. ALSO
FOR TUESDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO THE PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...AND 20 FOOT WESTERLY WINDS
GREATER THAN 15 MPH.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 301026
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
526 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING HAVE REMAINED A BIT WARMER THAN
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL
TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S...THOUGH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING TOO HIGH WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE FORECAST GETS A BIT MORE INTERESTING ON
TUESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE DE-AMPLIFIES THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SOME. MODELS
ARE DISAGREEING ON THE PLACEMENT AND PROGRESSION OF A SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. RESULTANT VARIANCES IN LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS...SOUTHEAST VS. SOUTHWEST...CREATING ISSUES ON WHERE TO DRAW
THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 00Z
ECMWF CAME IN A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE NAM...SHOWING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...BUT LAGS A BIT BEHIND THE
NAM. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES PUSHING THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES...HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
SOUTHEASTERN TO EASTERN ZONES AND AS SUCH HAVE LEFT CHANCE POPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE. WIND THREAT SEEMS TO BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN
FROM ANY STRONG STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP...THOUGH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. ON WEDNESDAY...DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE HIGH 80S WITH EVEN A FEW 90S EXPECTED.
THIS WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES ON
THURSDAY...LOOKING ONLY AT THIS TIME TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND
REDUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THOSE AREAS.

FRIDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE PANHANDLES. BROUGHT POPS UP A
LITTLE OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS WHILE STILL REMAINING BELOW SLIGHT
CHANCE...BUT MAY BE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
MAINLY JUST OVER FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL CLOSER
TO NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF APRIL AND REBOUND AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS ALL OF THE
PANHANDLES...BUT 20 FOOT WINDS GREATER THAN 15 MPH ARE ONLY EXPECTED
ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...AND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. ON TUESDAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
REMAIN LOW...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 MPH. ALSO
FOR TUESDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO THE PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...AND 20 FOOT WESTERLY WINDS
GREATER THAN 15 MPH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                78  49  86  51  88 /   5   5  10  10   5
BEAVER OK                  80  46  83  50  87 /   0   5  10   5  10
BOISE CITY OK              78  46  82  47  84 /   5  10   5   5   5
BORGER TX                  82  52  85  54  89 /   5   5  10   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              81  47  84  48  88 /   0   5   5   5   5
CANYON TX                  77  49  86  49  88 /   5   5  20  10   5
CLARENDON TX               78  52  86  53  89 /   0   5  30  20   5
DALHART TX                 80  44  83  44  86 /   0  10   5   5   5
GUYMON OK                  81  45  84  49  87 /   5   5   5   5   5
HEREFORD TX                78  48  85  48  87 /   5   5  10  10   5
LIPSCOMB TX                80  49  85  52  88 /   0   5  20  20   5
PAMPA TX                   78  51  85  52  90 /   5   5  20  10   5
SHAMROCK TX                78  52  86  53  88 /   0   5  30  20  10
WELLINGTON TX              79  53  86  54  90 /   0   5  30  20   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

02/18






000
FXUS64 KAMA 301026
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
526 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING HAVE REMAINED A BIT WARMER THAN
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL
TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S...THOUGH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING TOO HIGH WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE FORECAST GETS A BIT MORE INTERESTING ON
TUESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE DE-AMPLIFIES THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SOME. MODELS
ARE DISAGREEING ON THE PLACEMENT AND PROGRESSION OF A SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. RESULTANT VARIANCES IN LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS...SOUTHEAST VS. SOUTHWEST...CREATING ISSUES ON WHERE TO DRAW
THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 00Z
ECMWF CAME IN A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE NAM...SHOWING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...BUT LAGS A BIT BEHIND THE
NAM. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES PUSHING THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES...HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
SOUTHEASTERN TO EASTERN ZONES AND AS SUCH HAVE LEFT CHANCE POPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE. WIND THREAT SEEMS TO BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN
FROM ANY STRONG STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP...THOUGH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. ON WEDNESDAY...DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE HIGH 80S WITH EVEN A FEW 90S EXPECTED.
THIS WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES ON
THURSDAY...LOOKING ONLY AT THIS TIME TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND
REDUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THOSE AREAS.

FRIDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE PANHANDLES. BROUGHT POPS UP A
LITTLE OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS WHILE STILL REMAINING BELOW SLIGHT
CHANCE...BUT MAY BE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
MAINLY JUST OVER FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL CLOSER
TO NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF APRIL AND REBOUND AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS ALL OF THE
PANHANDLES...BUT 20 FOOT WINDS GREATER THAN 15 MPH ARE ONLY EXPECTED
ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...AND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. ON TUESDAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
REMAIN LOW...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 MPH. ALSO
FOR TUESDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO THE PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...AND 20 FOOT WESTERLY WINDS
GREATER THAN 15 MPH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                78  49  86  51  88 /   5   5  10  10   5
BEAVER OK                  80  46  83  50  87 /   0   5  10   5  10
BOISE CITY OK              78  46  82  47  84 /   5  10   5   5   5
BORGER TX                  82  52  85  54  89 /   5   5  10   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              81  47  84  48  88 /   0   5   5   5   5
CANYON TX                  77  49  86  49  88 /   5   5  20  10   5
CLARENDON TX               78  52  86  53  89 /   0   5  30  20   5
DALHART TX                 80  44  83  44  86 /   0  10   5   5   5
GUYMON OK                  81  45  84  49  87 /   5   5   5   5   5
HEREFORD TX                78  48  85  48  87 /   5   5  10  10   5
LIPSCOMB TX                80  49  85  52  88 /   0   5  20  20   5
PAMPA TX                   78  51  85  52  90 /   5   5  20  10   5
SHAMROCK TX                78  52  86  53  88 /   0   5  30  20  10
WELLINGTON TX              79  53  86  54  90 /   0   5  30  20   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

02/18






000
FXUS64 KAMA 300333 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1033 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
NO REAL CHANGES TO FORECAST OF SIX HOURS AGO.  LIGHT SURFACE WINDS
OVERNIGHT BECOME SOUTHWEST NEAR 20 KT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
INCREASING HIGH- AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24
HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

AVIATION...
SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST FOR ABOUT ANOTHER HOUR...AND THEN DROP
NOTABLY TO BELOW 10 KT.  DIRECTION OF SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
TREND TOWARD EAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...AND TO LIGHT SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST BY SUNRISE.  NO LOW CLOUDS OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED...OTHER THAN BRIEF REDUCTION IN BLOWING DUST NEAR
KDHT...WHERE VISIBLE SATELLITE REVEALS DUST PLUME ORIGINATING FROM
SOUTHEAST COLORADO.  AS SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...
OPPORTUNITY FOR ADDITIONAL MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO WANE.  ON
MONDAY...SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 KT
RANGE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z.  SOME INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT HAS SURGED WELL SOUTH OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
THIS MORNING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THIS FRONT AND 30+ KTS
AT 850 MB LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TODAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
COOLER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO A COOLER
NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SCOOT OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY WHILE AN UPPER
RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY...LEADING TO PLEASANT EARLY SPRING
WEATHER WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. WINDS CAN BECOME A BIT
BREEZY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS CAN LEAD TO A PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS THEY WERE
TODAY.

LONG TERM...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO FLOW BACK INTO WEST TEXAS TUESDAY
BENEATH COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE
MODEST...THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP IN THIS UNSTABLE AIR MASS
ALTHOUGH THE POSITION OF THE DRYLINE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL DETERMINE
HOW FAR EAST THESE STORMS WILL BE. ALSO AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
EJECT OUT OF OLD MEXICO AND ACROSS TEXAS DURING THE DAY. NWP MODEL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE BULK OF ANY PRECIP SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AMA CWA
AS THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED THERE. HOWEVER CANNOT
RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AND
HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS THERE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE DRY AND WARM WITH WESTERLY
UPPER FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE AN UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
BACK INTO THE 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH A SURGE OF COOLER
AIR WILL KNOCK HIGHS BACK EVEN FURTHER ON GOOD FRIDAY. RISING HEIGHTS
UNDER UPPER RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INDICATE TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR EASTER SUNDAY.

CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE NORTHERLY 20 FOOT WINDS DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 MPH
WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RECOVER TO ABOVE 20 PERCENT. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES MONDAY AS SOUTHWEST 20 FOOT WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND
15 TO 20 MPH WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT.
ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL TO 15 TO 20
PERCENT OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
TUESDAY...20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF THE DAY PRECLUDING ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. NEITHER
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/14






000
FXUS64 KAMA 300333 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1033 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
NO REAL CHANGES TO FORECAST OF SIX HOURS AGO.  LIGHT SURFACE WINDS
OVERNIGHT BECOME SOUTHWEST NEAR 20 KT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
INCREASING HIGH- AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24
HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

AVIATION...
SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST FOR ABOUT ANOTHER HOUR...AND THEN DROP
NOTABLY TO BELOW 10 KT.  DIRECTION OF SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
TREND TOWARD EAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...AND TO LIGHT SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST BY SUNRISE.  NO LOW CLOUDS OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED...OTHER THAN BRIEF REDUCTION IN BLOWING DUST NEAR
KDHT...WHERE VISIBLE SATELLITE REVEALS DUST PLUME ORIGINATING FROM
SOUTHEAST COLORADO.  AS SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...
OPPORTUNITY FOR ADDITIONAL MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO WANE.  ON
MONDAY...SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 KT
RANGE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z.  SOME INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT HAS SURGED WELL SOUTH OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
THIS MORNING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THIS FRONT AND 30+ KTS
AT 850 MB LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TODAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
COOLER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO A COOLER
NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SCOOT OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY WHILE AN UPPER
RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY...LEADING TO PLEASANT EARLY SPRING
WEATHER WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. WINDS CAN BECOME A BIT
BREEZY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS CAN LEAD TO A PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS THEY WERE
TODAY.

LONG TERM...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO FLOW BACK INTO WEST TEXAS TUESDAY
BENEATH COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE
MODEST...THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP IN THIS UNSTABLE AIR MASS
ALTHOUGH THE POSITION OF THE DRYLINE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL DETERMINE
HOW FAR EAST THESE STORMS WILL BE. ALSO AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
EJECT OUT OF OLD MEXICO AND ACROSS TEXAS DURING THE DAY. NWP MODEL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE BULK OF ANY PRECIP SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AMA CWA
AS THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED THERE. HOWEVER CANNOT
RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AND
HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS THERE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE DRY AND WARM WITH WESTERLY
UPPER FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE AN UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
BACK INTO THE 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH A SURGE OF COOLER
AIR WILL KNOCK HIGHS BACK EVEN FURTHER ON GOOD FRIDAY. RISING HEIGHTS
UNDER UPPER RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INDICATE TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR EASTER SUNDAY.

CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE NORTHERLY 20 FOOT WINDS DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 MPH
WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RECOVER TO ABOVE 20 PERCENT. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES MONDAY AS SOUTHWEST 20 FOOT WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND
15 TO 20 MPH WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT.
ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL TO 15 TO 20
PERCENT OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
TUESDAY...20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF THE DAY PRECLUDING ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. NEITHER
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/14







000
FXUS64 KAMA 300333 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1033 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
NO REAL CHANGES TO FORECAST OF SIX HOURS AGO.  LIGHT SURFACE WINDS
OVERNIGHT BECOME SOUTHWEST NEAR 20 KT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
INCREASING HIGH- AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24
HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

AVIATION...
SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST FOR ABOUT ANOTHER HOUR...AND THEN DROP
NOTABLY TO BELOW 10 KT.  DIRECTION OF SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
TREND TOWARD EAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...AND TO LIGHT SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST BY SUNRISE.  NO LOW CLOUDS OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED...OTHER THAN BRIEF REDUCTION IN BLOWING DUST NEAR
KDHT...WHERE VISIBLE SATELLITE REVEALS DUST PLUME ORIGINATING FROM
SOUTHEAST COLORADO.  AS SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...
OPPORTUNITY FOR ADDITIONAL MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO WANE.  ON
MONDAY...SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 KT
RANGE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z.  SOME INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT HAS SURGED WELL SOUTH OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
THIS MORNING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THIS FRONT AND 30+ KTS
AT 850 MB LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TODAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
COOLER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO A COOLER
NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SCOOT OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY WHILE AN UPPER
RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY...LEADING TO PLEASANT EARLY SPRING
WEATHER WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. WINDS CAN BECOME A BIT
BREEZY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS CAN LEAD TO A PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS THEY WERE
TODAY.

LONG TERM...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO FLOW BACK INTO WEST TEXAS TUESDAY
BENEATH COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE
MODEST...THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP IN THIS UNSTABLE AIR MASS
ALTHOUGH THE POSITION OF THE DRYLINE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL DETERMINE
HOW FAR EAST THESE STORMS WILL BE. ALSO AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
EJECT OUT OF OLD MEXICO AND ACROSS TEXAS DURING THE DAY. NWP MODEL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE BULK OF ANY PRECIP SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AMA CWA
AS THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED THERE. HOWEVER CANNOT
RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AND
HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS THERE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE DRY AND WARM WITH WESTERLY
UPPER FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE AN UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
BACK INTO THE 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH A SURGE OF COOLER
AIR WILL KNOCK HIGHS BACK EVEN FURTHER ON GOOD FRIDAY. RISING HEIGHTS
UNDER UPPER RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INDICATE TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR EASTER SUNDAY.

CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE NORTHERLY 20 FOOT WINDS DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 MPH
WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RECOVER TO ABOVE 20 PERCENT. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES MONDAY AS SOUTHWEST 20 FOOT WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND
15 TO 20 MPH WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT.
ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL TO 15 TO 20
PERCENT OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
TUESDAY...20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF THE DAY PRECLUDING ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. NEITHER
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/14






000
FXUS64 KAMA 292329 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
629 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST FOR ABOUT ANOTHER HOUR...AND THEN DROP
NOTABLY TO BELOW 10 KT.  DIRECTION OF SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
TREND TOWARD EAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...AND TO LIGHT SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST BY SUNRISE.  NO LOW CLOUDS OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED...OTHER THAN BRIEF REDUCTION IN BLOWING DUST NEAR
KDHT...WHERE VISIBLE SATELLITE REVEALS DUST PLUME ORIGINATING FROM
SOUTHEAST COLORADO.  AS SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...
OPPORTUNITY FOR ADDITIONAL MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO WANE.  ON
MONDAY...SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 KT
RANGE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z.  SOME INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT HAS SURGED WELL SOUTH OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
THIS MORNING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THIS FRONT AND 30+ KTS
AT 850 MB LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TODAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
COOLER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO A COOLER
NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SCOOT OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY WHILE AN UPPER
RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY...LEADING TO PLEASANT EARLY SPRING
WEATHER WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. WINDS CAN BECOME A BIT
BREEZY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS CAN LEAD TO A PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS THEY WERE
TODAY.

LONG TERM...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO FLOW BACK INTO WEST TEXAS TUESDAY
BENEATH COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE
MODEST...THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP IN THIS UNSTABLE AIR MASS
ALTHOUGH THE POSITION OF THE DRYLINE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL DETERMINE
HOW FAR EAST THESE STORMS WILL BE. ALSO AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
EJECT OUT OF OLD MEXICO AND ACROSS TEXAS DURING THE DAY. NWP MODEL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE BULK OF ANY PRECIP SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AMA CWA
AS THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED THERE. HOWEVER CANNOT
RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AND
HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS THERE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE DRY AND WARM WITH WESTERLY
UPPER FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE AN UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
BACK INTO THE 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH A SURGE OF COOLER
AIR WILL KNOCK HIGHS BACK EVEN FURTHER ON GOOD FRIDAY. RISING HEIGHTS
UNDER UPPER RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INDICATE TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR EASTER SUNDAY.

CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE NORTHERLY 20 FOOT WINDS DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 MPH
WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RECOVER TO ABOVE 20 PERCENT. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES MONDAY AS SOUTHWEST 20 FOOT WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND
15 TO 20 MPH WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT.
ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL TO 15 TO 20
PERCENT OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
TUESDAY...20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF THE DAY PRECLUDING ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. NEITHER
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                40  76  48  85  51 /   0   5   5  20  10
BEAVER OK                  37  79  44  84  49 /   0   5   5  10  10
BOISE CITY OK              40  77  45  83  48 /   0   5  10   5   5
BORGER TX                  43  77  52  86  55 /   0   5   5  10  10
BOYS RANCH TX              39  79  46  86  47 /   0   5   5   5   5
CANYON TX                  40  76  48  84  49 /   0   5   5  20  10
CLARENDON TX               41  75  50  87  52 /   0   0   5  30  20
DALHART TX                 39  78  43  84  45 /   0   5  10   5   5
GUYMON OK                  39  79  44  85  49 /   0   5   5   5   5
HEREFORD TX                40  75  47  84  47 /   0   5   5  10  10
LIPSCOMB TX                37  77  48  86  51 /   0   0   5  20  20
PAMPA TX                   41  75  49  84  51 /   0   5   5  20  10
SHAMROCK TX                41  76  50  87  52 /   0   0   5  30  20
WELLINGTON TX              42  76  51  88  55 /   0   0   5  40  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/14







000
FXUS64 KAMA 292329 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
629 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST FOR ABOUT ANOTHER HOUR...AND THEN DROP
NOTABLY TO BELOW 10 KT.  DIRECTION OF SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
TREND TOWARD EAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...AND TO LIGHT SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST BY SUNRISE.  NO LOW CLOUDS OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED...OTHER THAN BRIEF REDUCTION IN BLOWING DUST NEAR
KDHT...WHERE VISIBLE SATELLITE REVEALS DUST PLUME ORIGINATING FROM
SOUTHEAST COLORADO.  AS SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...
OPPORTUNITY FOR ADDITIONAL MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO WANE.  ON
MONDAY...SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 KT
RANGE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z.  SOME INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT HAS SURGED WELL SOUTH OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
THIS MORNING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THIS FRONT AND 30+ KTS
AT 850 MB LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TODAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
COOLER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO A COOLER
NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SCOOT OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY WHILE AN UPPER
RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY...LEADING TO PLEASANT EARLY SPRING
WEATHER WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. WINDS CAN BECOME A BIT
BREEZY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS CAN LEAD TO A PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS THEY WERE
TODAY.

LONG TERM...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO FLOW BACK INTO WEST TEXAS TUESDAY
BENEATH COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE
MODEST...THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP IN THIS UNSTABLE AIR MASS
ALTHOUGH THE POSITION OF THE DRYLINE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL DETERMINE
HOW FAR EAST THESE STORMS WILL BE. ALSO AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
EJECT OUT OF OLD MEXICO AND ACROSS TEXAS DURING THE DAY. NWP MODEL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE BULK OF ANY PRECIP SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AMA CWA
AS THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED THERE. HOWEVER CANNOT
RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AND
HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS THERE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE DRY AND WARM WITH WESTERLY
UPPER FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE AN UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
BACK INTO THE 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH A SURGE OF COOLER
AIR WILL KNOCK HIGHS BACK EVEN FURTHER ON GOOD FRIDAY. RISING HEIGHTS
UNDER UPPER RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INDICATE TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR EASTER SUNDAY.

CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE NORTHERLY 20 FOOT WINDS DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 MPH
WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RECOVER TO ABOVE 20 PERCENT. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES MONDAY AS SOUTHWEST 20 FOOT WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND
15 TO 20 MPH WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT.
ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL TO 15 TO 20
PERCENT OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
TUESDAY...20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF THE DAY PRECLUDING ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. NEITHER
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                40  76  48  85  51 /   0   5   5  20  10
BEAVER OK                  37  79  44  84  49 /   0   5   5  10  10
BOISE CITY OK              40  77  45  83  48 /   0   5  10   5   5
BORGER TX                  43  77  52  86  55 /   0   5   5  10  10
BOYS RANCH TX              39  79  46  86  47 /   0   5   5   5   5
CANYON TX                  40  76  48  84  49 /   0   5   5  20  10
CLARENDON TX               41  75  50  87  52 /   0   0   5  30  20
DALHART TX                 39  78  43  84  45 /   0   5  10   5   5
GUYMON OK                  39  79  44  85  49 /   0   5   5   5   5
HEREFORD TX                40  75  47  84  47 /   0   5   5  10  10
LIPSCOMB TX                37  77  48  86  51 /   0   0   5  20  20
PAMPA TX                   41  75  49  84  51 /   0   5   5  20  10
SHAMROCK TX                41  76  50  87  52 /   0   0   5  30  20
WELLINGTON TX              42  76  51  88  55 /   0   0   5  40  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/14






000
FXUS64 KAMA 292048
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
348 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT HAS SURGED WELL SOUTH OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
THIS MORNING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THIS FRONT AND 30+ KTS
AT 850 MB LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TODAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
COOLER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO A COOLER
NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SCOOT OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY WHILE AN UPPER
RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY...LEADING TO PLEASANT EARLY SPRING
WEATHER WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. WINDS CAN BECOME A BIT
BREEZY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS CAN LEAD TO A PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS THEY WERE
TODAY.

.LONG TERM...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO FLOW BACK INTO WEST TEXAS TUESDAY
BENEATH COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE
MODEST...THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP IN THIS UNSTABLE AIR MASS
ALTHOUGH THE POSITION OF THE DRYLINE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL DETERMINE
HOW FAR EAST THESE STORMS WILL BE. ALSO AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
EJECT OUT OF OLD MEXICO AND ACROSS TEXAS DURING THE DAY. NWP MODEL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE BULK OF ANY PRECIP SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AMA CWA
AS THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED THERE. HOWEVER CANNOT
RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AND
HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS THERE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE DRY AND WARM WITH WESTERLY
UPPER FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE AN UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
BACK INTO THE 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH A SURGE OF COOLER
AIR WILL KNOCK HIGHS BACK EVEN FURTHER ON GOOD FRIDAY. RISING HEIGHTS
UNDER UPPER RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INDICATE TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR EASTER SUNDAY.

CLK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE NORTHERLY 20 FOOT WINDS DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 MPH
WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RECOVER TO ABOVE 20 PERCENT. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES MONDAY AS SOUTHWEST 20 FOOT WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND
15 TO 20 MPH WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT.
ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL TO 15 TO 20
PERCENT OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
TUESDAY...20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF THE DAY PRECLUDING ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. NEITHER
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                40  76  48  85  51 /   0   5   5  20  10
BEAVER OK                  37  79  44  84  49 /   0   5   5  10  10
BOISE CITY OK              40  77  45  83  48 /   0   5  10   5   5
BORGER TX                  43  77  52  86  55 /   0   5   5  10  10
BOYS RANCH TX              39  79  46  86  47 /   0   5   5   5   5
CANYON TX                  40  76  48  84  49 /   0   5   5  20  10
CLARENDON TX               41  75  50  87  52 /   0   0   5  30  20
DALHART TX                 39  78  43  84  45 /   0   5  10   5   5
GUYMON OK                  39  79  44  85  49 /   0   5   5   5   5
HEREFORD TX                40  75  47  84  47 /   0   5   5  10  10
LIPSCOMB TX                37  77  48  86  51 /   0   0   5  20  20
PAMPA TX                   41  75  49  84  51 /   0   5   5  20  10
SHAMROCK TX                41  76  50  87  52 /   0   0   5  30  20
WELLINGTON TX              42  76  51  88  55 /   0   0   5  40  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/05







000
FXUS64 KAMA 292048
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
348 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT HAS SURGED WELL SOUTH OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
THIS MORNING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THIS FRONT AND 30+ KTS
AT 850 MB LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TODAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
COOLER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO A COOLER
NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SCOOT OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY WHILE AN UPPER
RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY...LEADING TO PLEASANT EARLY SPRING
WEATHER WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. WINDS CAN BECOME A BIT
BREEZY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS CAN LEAD TO A PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS THEY WERE
TODAY.

.LONG TERM...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO FLOW BACK INTO WEST TEXAS TUESDAY
BENEATH COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE
MODEST...THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP IN THIS UNSTABLE AIR MASS
ALTHOUGH THE POSITION OF THE DRYLINE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL DETERMINE
HOW FAR EAST THESE STORMS WILL BE. ALSO AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
EJECT OUT OF OLD MEXICO AND ACROSS TEXAS DURING THE DAY. NWP MODEL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE BULK OF ANY PRECIP SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AMA CWA
AS THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED THERE. HOWEVER CANNOT
RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AND
HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS THERE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE DRY AND WARM WITH WESTERLY
UPPER FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE AN UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
BACK INTO THE 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH A SURGE OF COOLER
AIR WILL KNOCK HIGHS BACK EVEN FURTHER ON GOOD FRIDAY. RISING HEIGHTS
UNDER UPPER RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INDICATE TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR EASTER SUNDAY.

CLK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE NORTHERLY 20 FOOT WINDS DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 MPH
WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RECOVER TO ABOVE 20 PERCENT. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES MONDAY AS SOUTHWEST 20 FOOT WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND
15 TO 20 MPH WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT.
ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL TO 15 TO 20
PERCENT OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
TUESDAY...20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF THE DAY PRECLUDING ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. NEITHER
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                40  76  48  85  51 /   0   5   5  20  10
BEAVER OK                  37  79  44  84  49 /   0   5   5  10  10
BOISE CITY OK              40  77  45  83  48 /   0   5  10   5   5
BORGER TX                  43  77  52  86  55 /   0   5   5  10  10
BOYS RANCH TX              39  79  46  86  47 /   0   5   5   5   5
CANYON TX                  40  76  48  84  49 /   0   5   5  20  10
CLARENDON TX               41  75  50  87  52 /   0   0   5  30  20
DALHART TX                 39  78  43  84  45 /   0   5  10   5   5
GUYMON OK                  39  79  44  85  49 /   0   5   5   5   5
HEREFORD TX                40  75  47  84  47 /   0   5   5  10  10
LIPSCOMB TX                37  77  48  86  51 /   0   0   5  20  20
PAMPA TX                   41  75  49  84  51 /   0   5   5  20  10
SHAMROCK TX                41  76  50  87  52 /   0   0   5  30  20
WELLINGTON TX              42  76  51  88  55 /   0   0   5  40  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/05






000
FXUS64 KAMA 292048
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
348 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT HAS SURGED WELL SOUTH OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
THIS MORNING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THIS FRONT AND 30+ KTS
AT 850 MB LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TODAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
COOLER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO A COOLER
NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SCOOT OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY WHILE AN UPPER
RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY...LEADING TO PLEASANT EARLY SPRING
WEATHER WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. WINDS CAN BECOME A BIT
BREEZY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS CAN LEAD TO A PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS THEY WERE
TODAY.

.LONG TERM...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO FLOW BACK INTO WEST TEXAS TUESDAY
BENEATH COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE
MODEST...THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP IN THIS UNSTABLE AIR MASS
ALTHOUGH THE POSITION OF THE DRYLINE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL DETERMINE
HOW FAR EAST THESE STORMS WILL BE. ALSO AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
EJECT OUT OF OLD MEXICO AND ACROSS TEXAS DURING THE DAY. NWP MODEL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE BULK OF ANY PRECIP SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AMA CWA
AS THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED THERE. HOWEVER CANNOT
RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AND
HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS THERE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE DRY AND WARM WITH WESTERLY
UPPER FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE AN UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
BACK INTO THE 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH A SURGE OF COOLER
AIR WILL KNOCK HIGHS BACK EVEN FURTHER ON GOOD FRIDAY. RISING HEIGHTS
UNDER UPPER RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INDICATE TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR EASTER SUNDAY.

CLK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE NORTHERLY 20 FOOT WINDS DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 MPH
WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RECOVER TO ABOVE 20 PERCENT. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES MONDAY AS SOUTHWEST 20 FOOT WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND
15 TO 20 MPH WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT.
ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL TO 15 TO 20
PERCENT OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
TUESDAY...20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF THE DAY PRECLUDING ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. NEITHER
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                40  76  48  85  51 /   0   5   5  20  10
BEAVER OK                  37  79  44  84  49 /   0   5   5  10  10
BOISE CITY OK              40  77  45  83  48 /   0   5  10   5   5
BORGER TX                  43  77  52  86  55 /   0   5   5  10  10
BOYS RANCH TX              39  79  46  86  47 /   0   5   5   5   5
CANYON TX                  40  76  48  84  49 /   0   5   5  20  10
CLARENDON TX               41  75  50  87  52 /   0   0   5  30  20
DALHART TX                 39  78  43  84  45 /   0   5  10   5   5
GUYMON OK                  39  79  44  85  49 /   0   5   5   5   5
HEREFORD TX                40  75  47  84  47 /   0   5   5  10  10
LIPSCOMB TX                37  77  48  86  51 /   0   0   5  20  20
PAMPA TX                   41  75  49  84  51 /   0   5   5  20  10
SHAMROCK TX                41  76  50  87  52 /   0   0   5  30  20
WELLINGTON TX              42  76  51  88  55 /   0   0   5  40  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/05






000
FXUS64 KAMA 292048
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
348 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT HAS SURGED WELL SOUTH OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
THIS MORNING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THIS FRONT AND 30+ KTS
AT 850 MB LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TODAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
COOLER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO A COOLER
NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SCOOT OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY WHILE AN UPPER
RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY...LEADING TO PLEASANT EARLY SPRING
WEATHER WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. WINDS CAN BECOME A BIT
BREEZY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS CAN LEAD TO A PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS THEY WERE
TODAY.

.LONG TERM...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO FLOW BACK INTO WEST TEXAS TUESDAY
BENEATH COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE
MODEST...THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP IN THIS UNSTABLE AIR MASS
ALTHOUGH THE POSITION OF THE DRYLINE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL DETERMINE
HOW FAR EAST THESE STORMS WILL BE. ALSO AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
EJECT OUT OF OLD MEXICO AND ACROSS TEXAS DURING THE DAY. NWP MODEL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE BULK OF ANY PRECIP SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AMA CWA
AS THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED THERE. HOWEVER CANNOT
RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AND
HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS THERE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE DRY AND WARM WITH WESTERLY
UPPER FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE AN UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
BACK INTO THE 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH A SURGE OF COOLER
AIR WILL KNOCK HIGHS BACK EVEN FURTHER ON GOOD FRIDAY. RISING HEIGHTS
UNDER UPPER RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INDICATE TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR EASTER SUNDAY.

CLK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE NORTHERLY 20 FOOT WINDS DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 MPH
WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RECOVER TO ABOVE 20 PERCENT. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES MONDAY AS SOUTHWEST 20 FOOT WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND
15 TO 20 MPH WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT.
ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL TO 15 TO 20
PERCENT OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
TUESDAY...20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF THE DAY PRECLUDING ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. NEITHER
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                40  76  48  85  51 /   0   5   5  20  10
BEAVER OK                  37  79  44  84  49 /   0   5   5  10  10
BOISE CITY OK              40  77  45  83  48 /   0   5  10   5   5
BORGER TX                  43  77  52  86  55 /   0   5   5  10  10
BOYS RANCH TX              39  79  46  86  47 /   0   5   5   5   5
CANYON TX                  40  76  48  84  49 /   0   5   5  20  10
CLARENDON TX               41  75  50  87  52 /   0   0   5  30  20
DALHART TX                 39  78  43  84  45 /   0   5  10   5   5
GUYMON OK                  39  79  44  85  49 /   0   5   5   5   5
HEREFORD TX                40  75  47  84  47 /   0   5   5  10  10
LIPSCOMB TX                37  77  48  86  51 /   0   0   5  20  20
PAMPA TX                   41  75  49  84  51 /   0   5   5  20  10
SHAMROCK TX                41  76  50  87  52 /   0   0   5  30  20
WELLINGTON TX              42  76  51  88  55 /   0   0   5  40  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/05







000
FXUS64 KAMA 291709
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1209 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...STRONG NORTH WINDS IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO GUST OVER 30 KTS THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE BEGINNING
TO DISSIPATE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO
THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL STEADILY VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS MID TO
LATE MONDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SOME MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS.

KB/MB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN NOW
AND ROUGHLY 15Z TODAY SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH.
AFTER A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES TODAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE PANHANDLES
MONDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY.
SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY WHICH WILL PULL
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH AND EAST AS A WARM FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IN EASTERN COLORADO AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL MIX EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLES.

CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE EASTERN AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...A FEW OR SOME STORMS MAY POSSIBLY BECOME STRONG BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON TUESDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO RETREAT BACK TO THE
WEST BY WEDNESDAY AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES BY LATE WEDNESDAY...AND THEN USHERING IN A COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A
REINFORCING SURGE OF MUCH COOLER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE
PANHANDLES BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS FOR THE EARLY HALF OF THIS WEEK WITH MAINLY SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY AND THURSDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF EACH
COLD FRONT. MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS WEEK AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AFTER THE REINFORCING SURGE OF MUCH COOLER
AIR THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING BY
15Z TODAY SHIFTING THE 20 FOOT WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE
WITH LOWER DEW POINTS SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CERTAINLY CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT...EVEN THOUGH THE DRIER AIR TRACKS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...THE 20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY LATE TODAY AND DO NOT EXPECT THE 3-HOUR
TEMPORAL CRITERIA TO BE MET BEFORE THE 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS FALL BELOW
20 MPH AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BEGIN TO GRADUALLY INCREASING
AGAIN.

THE 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
MONDAY WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE OR SO. MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MONDAY OF AROUND 18 TO 26 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
JUST TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME BUT SHOULD CONTINUED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/05







000
FXUS64 KAMA 291709
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1209 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...STRONG NORTH WINDS IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO GUST OVER 30 KTS THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE BEGINNING
TO DISSIPATE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO
THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL STEADILY VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS MID TO
LATE MONDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SOME MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS.

KB/MB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN NOW
AND ROUGHLY 15Z TODAY SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH.
AFTER A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES TODAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE PANHANDLES
MONDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY.
SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY WHICH WILL PULL
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH AND EAST AS A WARM FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IN EASTERN COLORADO AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL MIX EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLES.

CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE EASTERN AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...A FEW OR SOME STORMS MAY POSSIBLY BECOME STRONG BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON TUESDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO RETREAT BACK TO THE
WEST BY WEDNESDAY AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES BY LATE WEDNESDAY...AND THEN USHERING IN A COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A
REINFORCING SURGE OF MUCH COOLER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE
PANHANDLES BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS FOR THE EARLY HALF OF THIS WEEK WITH MAINLY SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY AND THURSDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF EACH
COLD FRONT. MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS WEEK AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AFTER THE REINFORCING SURGE OF MUCH COOLER
AIR THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING BY
15Z TODAY SHIFTING THE 20 FOOT WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE
WITH LOWER DEW POINTS SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CERTAINLY CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT...EVEN THOUGH THE DRIER AIR TRACKS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...THE 20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY LATE TODAY AND DO NOT EXPECT THE 3-HOUR
TEMPORAL CRITERIA TO BE MET BEFORE THE 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS FALL BELOW
20 MPH AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BEGIN TO GRADUALLY INCREASING
AGAIN.

THE 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
MONDAY WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE OR SO. MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MONDAY OF AROUND 18 TO 26 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
JUST TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME BUT SHOULD CONTINUED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/05







000
FXUS64 KAMA 291709
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1209 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...STRONG NORTH WINDS IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO GUST OVER 30 KTS THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE BEGINNING
TO DISSIPATE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO
THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL STEADILY VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS MID TO
LATE MONDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SOME MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS.

KB/MB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN NOW
AND ROUGHLY 15Z TODAY SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH.
AFTER A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES TODAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE PANHANDLES
MONDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY.
SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY WHICH WILL PULL
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH AND EAST AS A WARM FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IN EASTERN COLORADO AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL MIX EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLES.

CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE EASTERN AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...A FEW OR SOME STORMS MAY POSSIBLY BECOME STRONG BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON TUESDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO RETREAT BACK TO THE
WEST BY WEDNESDAY AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES BY LATE WEDNESDAY...AND THEN USHERING IN A COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A
REINFORCING SURGE OF MUCH COOLER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE
PANHANDLES BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS FOR THE EARLY HALF OF THIS WEEK WITH MAINLY SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY AND THURSDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF EACH
COLD FRONT. MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS WEEK AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AFTER THE REINFORCING SURGE OF MUCH COOLER
AIR THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING BY
15Z TODAY SHIFTING THE 20 FOOT WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE
WITH LOWER DEW POINTS SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CERTAINLY CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT...EVEN THOUGH THE DRIER AIR TRACKS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...THE 20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY LATE TODAY AND DO NOT EXPECT THE 3-HOUR
TEMPORAL CRITERIA TO BE MET BEFORE THE 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS FALL BELOW
20 MPH AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BEGIN TO GRADUALLY INCREASING
AGAIN.

THE 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
MONDAY WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE OR SO. MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MONDAY OF AROUND 18 TO 26 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
JUST TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME BUT SHOULD CONTINUED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/05






000
FXUS64 KAMA 291709
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1209 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...STRONG NORTH WINDS IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO GUST OVER 30 KTS THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE BEGINNING
TO DISSIPATE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO
THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL STEADILY VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS MID TO
LATE MONDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SOME MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS.

KB/MB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN NOW
AND ROUGHLY 15Z TODAY SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH.
AFTER A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES TODAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE PANHANDLES
MONDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY.
SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY WHICH WILL PULL
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH AND EAST AS A WARM FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IN EASTERN COLORADO AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL MIX EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLES.

CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE EASTERN AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...A FEW OR SOME STORMS MAY POSSIBLY BECOME STRONG BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON TUESDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO RETREAT BACK TO THE
WEST BY WEDNESDAY AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES BY LATE WEDNESDAY...AND THEN USHERING IN A COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A
REINFORCING SURGE OF MUCH COOLER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE
PANHANDLES BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS FOR THE EARLY HALF OF THIS WEEK WITH MAINLY SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY AND THURSDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF EACH
COLD FRONT. MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS WEEK AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AFTER THE REINFORCING SURGE OF MUCH COOLER
AIR THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING BY
15Z TODAY SHIFTING THE 20 FOOT WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE
WITH LOWER DEW POINTS SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CERTAINLY CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT...EVEN THOUGH THE DRIER AIR TRACKS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...THE 20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY LATE TODAY AND DO NOT EXPECT THE 3-HOUR
TEMPORAL CRITERIA TO BE MET BEFORE THE 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS FALL BELOW
20 MPH AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BEGIN TO GRADUALLY INCREASING
AGAIN.

THE 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
MONDAY WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE OR SO. MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MONDAY OF AROUND 18 TO 26 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
JUST TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME BUT SHOULD CONTINUED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/05






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