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000
FXUS64 KAMA 042336
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
636 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLES WILL PREVAIL MAINTAINING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. BOTH THE RUC AND HRRR SHOWING
CONVECTION SHOULD ALREADY BE IMPACTING THE EASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES BY 00Z SUNDAY...HAVE DISCOUNTED THESE
MODELS FOR THE TAF FORECAST PACKAGE. INSTEAD...THE NAM APPEARS TO BE
MORE IN LINE AND KEPT ANY CONVECTION OUT OF THE THREE TAF SITES. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN CASE THE CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP AND
BEGINS IMPACTING MOST OF THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS
OF AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS OR SO AFTER 01Z TO 02Z SUNDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 14Z TO 15Z SUNDAY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTH
SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF AREAS THAT COULD HELP TO PRODUCE AN ENHANCED AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEEM TO BE IN THE NORTHEAST NEAR
A OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND IN THE NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION THAT COULD MOVE THIS WAY IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA GIVEN THESE FEATURES.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY DRY DAY AS THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE PANHANDLES. HOWEVER...MORE MOUNTAIN
CONVECTION MAY MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS THE FAR WESTERN
PANHANDLES BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A
BOOST ON SUNDAY FROM GUSTY SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD BE CLOSE
TO 100 AGAIN.

THE UPPER HIGH BREAKS DOWN AND IT ALLOWS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH
TO DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS STILL SLATED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES ON MONDAY WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN. SOME OF THE STORMS
MAY STRONG TO SEVERE AND WILL LIKELY CARRY SOME PRETTY HEAVY
RAIN WITH THEM. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH ABOUT
THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UNSTABLE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME AIR MASS
REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/06






000
FXUS64 KAMA 042336
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
636 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLES WILL PREVAIL MAINTAINING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. BOTH THE RUC AND HRRR SHOWING
CONVECTION SHOULD ALREADY BE IMPACTING THE EASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES BY 00Z SUNDAY...HAVE DISCOUNTED THESE
MODELS FOR THE TAF FORECAST PACKAGE. INSTEAD...THE NAM APPEARS TO BE
MORE IN LINE AND KEPT ANY CONVECTION OUT OF THE THREE TAF SITES. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN CASE THE CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP AND
BEGINS IMPACTING MOST OF THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS
OF AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS OR SO AFTER 01Z TO 02Z SUNDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 14Z TO 15Z SUNDAY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTH
SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF AREAS THAT COULD HELP TO PRODUCE AN ENHANCED AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEEM TO BE IN THE NORTHEAST NEAR
A OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND IN THE NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION THAT COULD MOVE THIS WAY IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA GIVEN THESE FEATURES.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY DRY DAY AS THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE PANHANDLES. HOWEVER...MORE MOUNTAIN
CONVECTION MAY MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS THE FAR WESTERN
PANHANDLES BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A
BOOST ON SUNDAY FROM GUSTY SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD BE CLOSE
TO 100 AGAIN.

THE UPPER HIGH BREAKS DOWN AND IT ALLOWS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH
TO DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS STILL SLATED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES ON MONDAY WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN. SOME OF THE STORMS
MAY STRONG TO SEVERE AND WILL LIKELY CARRY SOME PRETTY HEAVY
RAIN WITH THEM. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH ABOUT
THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UNSTABLE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME AIR MASS
REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/06







000
FXUS64 KAMA 041959
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
259 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF AREAS THAT COULD HELP TO PRODUCE AN ENHANCED AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEEM TO BE IN THE NORTHEAST NEAR
A OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND IN THE NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION THAT COULD MOVE THIS WAY IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA GIVEN THESE FEATURES.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY DRY DAY AS THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE PANHANDLES. HOWEVER...MORE MOUNTAIN
CONVECTION MAY MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS THE FAR WESTERN
PANHANDLES BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A
BOOST ON SUNDAY FROM GUSTY SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD BE CLOSE
TO 100 AGAIN.

THE UPPER HIGH BREAKS DOWN AND IT ALLOWS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH
TO DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS STILL SLATED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES ON MONDAY WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN. SOME OF THE STORMS
MAY STRONG TO SEVERE AND WILL LIKELY CARRY SOME PRETTY HEAVY
RAIN WITH THEM. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH ABOUT
THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UNSTABLE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME AIR MASS
REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                68  94  70  87  63 /  20  10  20  50  60
BEAVER OK                  69  99  72  93  64 /  30  10  20  60  50
BOISE CITY OK              68  98  66  79  58 /  40  20  30  40  30
BORGER TX                  70  98  72  93  63 /  20  10  20  50  50
BOYS RANCH TX              70  99  71  88  63 /  20  10  20  40  40
CANYON TX                  67  95  70  88  64 /  20  10  20  50  60
CLARENDON TX               69  94  69  89  65 /  20  10  20  50  60
DALHART TX                 69  99  69  84  61 /  30  20  20  40  40
GUYMON OK                  70  98  71  86  62 /  30  10  30  50  30
HEREFORD TX                66  93  70  90  64 /  20  10  20  40  50
LIPSCOMB TX                70  96  72  94  64 /  30  10  20  60  60
PAMPA TX                   69  94  71  87  63 /  20  10  20  50  60
SHAMROCK TX                70  94  70  91  65 /  20  10  20  50  60
WELLINGTON TX              71  96  71  92  67 /  20  10  20  50  60

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

88/15







000
FXUS64 KAMA 041823 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
123 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED LATE AFTN AND EVENING STORMS WILL BE MAIN AVN CONCERN FOR
TODAY WITH STORM INITIATING ALONG THE CO AND NM MOUNTAIN AND MOVING.
GUY AND DHT WILL HAVE GREATEST CHANCE OF BEING IMPACTED BY THIS
ACTIVITY BETWEEN 22 AND 02Z...BUT COVERAGE IS TOO ISOLD TO MENTION IN
TAFS. OTHERWISE...OUTSIDE STORMS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

MJG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
TODAY OUTSIDE OF SOME BRIEF AND LOCALIZED MVFR FOG THIS MORNING AND ANY
ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE LEFT THUNDER OUT
OF TAFS FOR NOW...GIVEN THE EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE. VARIABLE WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AT 10 TO
15 KTS...GUSTING TO 20 TO 25KTS BEFORE SUBSIDING SOME...BUT SUSTAINED
WINDS MAY REMAIN AT 10 TO 15KTS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
SUNDAY.

ELSENHEIMER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING...EVEN THOUGH THE COVERAGE OF TSTMS SHOULD
BE FAR LESS THAN PAST FEW DAYS AND NIGHTS...DO EXPECT THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLD TSTMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH A STORM OR TWO PSBLY
BECOMING MARGINALLY SEVERE AGAIN. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL UP TO
QUARTER SIZE WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING. HAVE GONE
WITH THE 10 POP RULE FOR TODAY AREAWIDE...INCREASING TO 15 PERCENT
FOR THE EVENING HOURS.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY...THE EXCEPTION
BEING THE FAR WRN COUNTIES WHERE SLGT CHC POPS WERE RETAINED CLOSE
TO THE NM STATE LINE IN THE EVENT A FEW STORMS DRIFT IN FROM ERN NM
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN IS
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TX AND OK PNHDLS MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN ANOTHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING POPS FOR TUE AND TUE NIGHT. SHORT AND
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND
WERE ACCEPTED.

NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS NOW SUGGEST THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
REMAIN SUPPRESSED FOR WED AND THURS...THEN EXPAND INTO THE SRN PLAINS
NEXT FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED
FOR WED THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND WARMER
TEMPS SEEM LIKELY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

88/88







000
FXUS64 KAMA 041823 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
123 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED LATE AFTN AND EVENING STORMS WILL BE MAIN AVN CONCERN FOR
TODAY WITH STORM INITIATING ALONG THE CO AND NM MOUNTAIN AND MOVING.
GUY AND DHT WILL HAVE GREATEST CHANCE OF BEING IMPACTED BY THIS
ACTIVITY BETWEEN 22 AND 02Z...BUT COVERAGE IS TOO ISOLD TO MENTION IN
TAFS. OTHERWISE...OUTSIDE STORMS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

MJG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
TODAY OUTSIDE OF SOME BRIEF AND LOCALIZED MVFR FOG THIS MORNING AND ANY
ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE LEFT THUNDER OUT
OF TAFS FOR NOW...GIVEN THE EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE. VARIABLE WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AT 10 TO
15 KTS...GUSTING TO 20 TO 25KTS BEFORE SUBSIDING SOME...BUT SUSTAINED
WINDS MAY REMAIN AT 10 TO 15KTS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
SUNDAY.

ELSENHEIMER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING...EVEN THOUGH THE COVERAGE OF TSTMS SHOULD
BE FAR LESS THAN PAST FEW DAYS AND NIGHTS...DO EXPECT THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLD TSTMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH A STORM OR TWO PSBLY
BECOMING MARGINALLY SEVERE AGAIN. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL UP TO
QUARTER SIZE WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING. HAVE GONE
WITH THE 10 POP RULE FOR TODAY AREAWIDE...INCREASING TO 15 PERCENT
FOR THE EVENING HOURS.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY...THE EXCEPTION
BEING THE FAR WRN COUNTIES WHERE SLGT CHC POPS WERE RETAINED CLOSE
TO THE NM STATE LINE IN THE EVENT A FEW STORMS DRIFT IN FROM ERN NM
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN IS
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TX AND OK PNHDLS MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN ANOTHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING POPS FOR TUE AND TUE NIGHT. SHORT AND
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND
WERE ACCEPTED.

NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS NOW SUGGEST THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
REMAIN SUPPRESSED FOR WED AND THURS...THEN EXPAND INTO THE SRN PLAINS
NEXT FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED
FOR WED THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND WARMER
TEMPS SEEM LIKELY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

88/88






000
FXUS64 KAMA 041127
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
627 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
TODAY OUTSIDE OF SOME BRIEF AND LOCALIZED MVFR FOG THIS MORNING AND ANY
ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE LEFT THUNDER OUT
OF TAFS FOR NOW...GIVEN THE EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE. VARIABLE WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AT 10 TO
15 KTS...GUSTING TO 20 TO 25KTS BEFORE SUBSIDING SOME...BUT SUSTAINED
WINDS MAY REMAIN AT 10 TO 15KTS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
SUNDAY.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING...EVEN THOUGH THE COVERAGE OF TSTMS SHOULD
BE FAR LESS THAN PAST FEW DAYS AND NIGHTS...DO EXPECT THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLD TSTMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH A STORM OR TWO PSBLY
BECOMING MARGINALLY SEVERE AGAIN. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL UP TO
QUARTER SIZE WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING. HAVE GONE
WITH THE 10 POP RULE FOR TODAY AREAWIDE...INCREASING TO 15 PERCENT
FOR THE EVENING HOURS.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY...THE EXCEPTION
BEING THE FAR WRN COUNTIES WHERE SLGT CHC POPS WERE RETAINED CLOSE
TO THE NM STATE LINE IN THE EVENT A FEW STORMS DRIFT IN FROM ERN NM
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN IS
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TX AND OK PNHDLS MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN ANOTHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING POPS FOR TUE AND TUE NIGHT. SHORT AND
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND
WERE ACCEPTED.

NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS NOW SUGGEST THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
REMAIN SUPPRESSED FOR WED AND THURS...THEN EXPAND INTO THE SRN PLAINS
NEXT FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED
FOR WED THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND WARMER
TEMPS SEEM LIKELY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

18/02







000
FXUS64 KAMA 041127
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
627 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
TODAY OUTSIDE OF SOME BRIEF AND LOCALIZED MVFR FOG THIS MORNING AND ANY
ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE LEFT THUNDER OUT
OF TAFS FOR NOW...GIVEN THE EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE. VARIABLE WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AT 10 TO
15 KTS...GUSTING TO 20 TO 25KTS BEFORE SUBSIDING SOME...BUT SUSTAINED
WINDS MAY REMAIN AT 10 TO 15KTS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
SUNDAY.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING...EVEN THOUGH THE COVERAGE OF TSTMS SHOULD
BE FAR LESS THAN PAST FEW DAYS AND NIGHTS...DO EXPECT THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLD TSTMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH A STORM OR TWO PSBLY
BECOMING MARGINALLY SEVERE AGAIN. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL UP TO
QUARTER SIZE WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING. HAVE GONE
WITH THE 10 POP RULE FOR TODAY AREAWIDE...INCREASING TO 15 PERCENT
FOR THE EVENING HOURS.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY...THE EXCEPTION
BEING THE FAR WRN COUNTIES WHERE SLGT CHC POPS WERE RETAINED CLOSE
TO THE NM STATE LINE IN THE EVENT A FEW STORMS DRIFT IN FROM ERN NM
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN IS
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TX AND OK PNHDLS MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN ANOTHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING POPS FOR TUE AND TUE NIGHT. SHORT AND
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND
WERE ACCEPTED.

NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS NOW SUGGEST THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
REMAIN SUPPRESSED FOR WED AND THURS...THEN EXPAND INTO THE SRN PLAINS
NEXT FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED
FOR WED THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND WARMER
TEMPS SEEM LIKELY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

18/02






000
FXUS64 KAMA 041127
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
627 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
TODAY OUTSIDE OF SOME BRIEF AND LOCALIZED MVFR FOG THIS MORNING AND ANY
ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE LEFT THUNDER OUT
OF TAFS FOR NOW...GIVEN THE EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE. VARIABLE WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AT 10 TO
15 KTS...GUSTING TO 20 TO 25KTS BEFORE SUBSIDING SOME...BUT SUSTAINED
WINDS MAY REMAIN AT 10 TO 15KTS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
SUNDAY.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING...EVEN THOUGH THE COVERAGE OF TSTMS SHOULD
BE FAR LESS THAN PAST FEW DAYS AND NIGHTS...DO EXPECT THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLD TSTMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH A STORM OR TWO PSBLY
BECOMING MARGINALLY SEVERE AGAIN. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL UP TO
QUARTER SIZE WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING. HAVE GONE
WITH THE 10 POP RULE FOR TODAY AREAWIDE...INCREASING TO 15 PERCENT
FOR THE EVENING HOURS.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY...THE EXCEPTION
BEING THE FAR WRN COUNTIES WHERE SLGT CHC POPS WERE RETAINED CLOSE
TO THE NM STATE LINE IN THE EVENT A FEW STORMS DRIFT IN FROM ERN NM
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN IS
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TX AND OK PNHDLS MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN ANOTHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING POPS FOR TUE AND TUE NIGHT. SHORT AND
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND
WERE ACCEPTED.

NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS NOW SUGGEST THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
REMAIN SUPPRESSED FOR WED AND THURS...THEN EXPAND INTO THE SRN PLAINS
NEXT FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED
FOR WED THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND WARMER
TEMPS SEEM LIKELY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

18/02







000
FXUS64 KAMA 040944
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
444 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING...EVEN THOUGH THE COVERAGE OF TSTMS SHOULD
BE FAR LESS THAN PAST FEW DAYS AND NIGHTS...DO EXPECT THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLD TSTMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH A STORM OR TWO PSBLY
BECOMING MARGINALLY SEVERE AGAIN. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL UP TO
QUARTER SIZE WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING. HAVE GONE
WITH THE 10 POP RULE FOR TODAY AREAWIDE...INCREASING TO 15 PERCENT
FOR THE EVENING HOURS.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY...THE EXCEPTION
BEING THE FAR WRN COUNTIES WHERE SLGT CHC POPS WERE RETAINED CLOSE
TO THE NM STATE LINE IN THE EVENT A FEW STORMS DRIFT IN FROM ERN NM
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN IS
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TX AND OK PNHDLS MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN ANOTHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING POPS FOR TUE AND TUE NIGHT. SHORT AND
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND
WERE ACCEPTED.

NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS NOW SUGGEST THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
REMAIN SUPPRESSED FOR WED AND THURS...THEN EXPAND INTO THE SRN PLAINS
NEXT FRIDAY THRUOGH THE WEEKEND. SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED
FOR WED THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND WARMER
TEMPS SEEM LIKELY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.

ANDRADE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                91  69  92  69  84 /  10  20  10  20  50
BEAVER OK                  95  71  97  71  83 /  10  20  10  30  60
BOISE CITY OK              92  67  94  65  80 /  10  20  20  30  40
BORGER TX                  94  73  96  72  85 /  10  20  10  30  50
BOYS RANCH TX              93  68  94  67  83 /  10  20  10  20  40
CANYON TX                  91  68  92  68  84 /  10  20  10  20  50
CLARENDON TX               92  71  94  71  88 /  10  20  10  20  50
DALHART TX                 95  68  96  66  81 /  10  20  20  30  40
GUYMON OK                  96  70  98  69  82 /  10  20  10  30  50
HEREFORD TX                90  67  91  67  85 /  10  20  10  20  40
LIPSCOMB TX                92  71  94  72  85 /  10  20  10  20  60
PAMPA TX                   92  70  93  70  85 /  10  20  10  20  50
SHAMROCK TX                92  71  94  72  89 /  10  20  10  20  50
WELLINGTON TX              93  72  95  73  91 /  10  20  10  20  50

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 040944
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
444 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING...EVEN THOUGH THE COVERAGE OF TSTMS SHOULD
BE FAR LESS THAN PAST FEW DAYS AND NIGHTS...DO EXPECT THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLD TSTMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH A STORM OR TWO PSBLY
BECOMING MARGINALLY SEVERE AGAIN. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL UP TO
QUARTER SIZE WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING. HAVE GONE
WITH THE 10 POP RULE FOR TODAY AREAWIDE...INCREASING TO 15 PERCENT
FOR THE EVENING HOURS.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY...THE EXCEPTION
BEING THE FAR WRN COUNTIES WHERE SLGT CHC POPS WERE RETAINED CLOSE
TO THE NM STATE LINE IN THE EVENT A FEW STORMS DRIFT IN FROM ERN NM
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN IS
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TX AND OK PNHDLS MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN ANOTHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING POPS FOR TUE AND TUE NIGHT. SHORT AND
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND
WERE ACCEPTED.

NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS NOW SUGGEST THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
REMAIN SUPPRESSED FOR WED AND THURS...THEN EXPAND INTO THE SRN PLAINS
NEXT FRIDAY THRUOGH THE WEEKEND. SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED
FOR WED THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND WARMER
TEMPS SEEM LIKELY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.

ANDRADE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                91  69  92  69  84 /  10  20  10  20  50
BEAVER OK                  95  71  97  71  83 /  10  20  10  30  60
BOISE CITY OK              92  67  94  65  80 /  10  20  20  30  40
BORGER TX                  94  73  96  72  85 /  10  20  10  30  50
BOYS RANCH TX              93  68  94  67  83 /  10  20  10  20  40
CANYON TX                  91  68  92  68  84 /  10  20  10  20  50
CLARENDON TX               92  71  94  71  88 /  10  20  10  20  50
DALHART TX                 95  68  96  66  81 /  10  20  20  30  40
GUYMON OK                  96  70  98  69  82 /  10  20  10  30  50
HEREFORD TX                90  67  91  67  85 /  10  20  10  20  40
LIPSCOMB TX                92  71  94  72  85 /  10  20  10  20  60
PAMPA TX                   92  70  93  70  85 /  10  20  10  20  50
SHAMROCK TX                92  71  94  72  89 /  10  20  10  20  50
WELLINGTON TX              93  72  95  73  91 /  10  20  10  20  50

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 040809
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
309 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. WILL BE QUICK TO DEVELOP AND SPOTTY IN NATURE SO HAVE LEFT
MENTION OUT OF TAFS. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.  VARIABLE
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15KTS WITH 20KT GUSTS
BY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF THE AMARILLO TAF SITE BY 07Z TO 08Z
SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ALL THREE TAF SITE THROUGH
06Z SUNDAY. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE AFTER 14Z
SATURDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE DALHART AND AMARILLO TAF SITES
THROUGH ABOUT 04Z TO 06Z SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...EXCEPT IN AND NEAR THE CONVECTION WHERE MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH STRONG AND
ERRATIC WINDS. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH 5
TO 15 KNOTS OUTSIDE THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND
THEN VEERING AROUND MORE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AFTER 14Z
SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER ABOUT 18Z TO 20Z
SATURDAY TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED ABOUT THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS WILL HEAD THIS DIRECTION FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. ONE
OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE OVER CENTRAL COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT. BOTH OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD KEEP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL BREAK DOWN SOME AND BROADEN.
THE PANHANDLES WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD GO DOWN SOME...BUT NOT TO ZERO...ON THESE DAYS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND MOVE BACK FURTHER WEST BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A MUCH STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO
DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS MONDAY. THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL HELP TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PANHANDLES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL AGAIN HELP TO SPARK
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE POST UPSLOPE
ENVIRONMENT ON TUESDAY IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED.

A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PANHANDLES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE A
LEE-SIDE TROUGH TO DEVELOP EACH DAY...SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY FORM ALONG THIS FEATURE EACH DAY.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

18/02






000
FXUS64 KAMA 040809
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
309 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. WILL BE QUICK TO DEVELOP AND SPOTTY IN NATURE SO HAVE LEFT
MENTION OUT OF TAFS. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.  VARIABLE
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15KTS WITH 20KT GUSTS
BY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF THE AMARILLO TAF SITE BY 07Z TO 08Z
SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ALL THREE TAF SITE THROUGH
06Z SUNDAY. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE AFTER 14Z
SATURDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE DALHART AND AMARILLO TAF SITES
THROUGH ABOUT 04Z TO 06Z SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...EXCEPT IN AND NEAR THE CONVECTION WHERE MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH STRONG AND
ERRATIC WINDS. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH 5
TO 15 KNOTS OUTSIDE THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND
THEN VEERING AROUND MORE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AFTER 14Z
SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER ABOUT 18Z TO 20Z
SATURDAY TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED ABOUT THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS WILL HEAD THIS DIRECTION FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. ONE
OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE OVER CENTRAL COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT. BOTH OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD KEEP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL BREAK DOWN SOME AND BROADEN.
THE PANHANDLES WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD GO DOWN SOME...BUT NOT TO ZERO...ON THESE DAYS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND MOVE BACK FURTHER WEST BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A MUCH STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO
DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS MONDAY. THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL HELP TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PANHANDLES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL AGAIN HELP TO SPARK
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE POST UPSLOPE
ENVIRONMENT ON TUESDAY IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED.

A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PANHANDLES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE A
LEE-SIDE TROUGH TO DEVELOP EACH DAY...SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY FORM ALONG THIS FEATURE EACH DAY.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

18/02







000
FXUS64 KAMA 040352
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1052 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF THE AMARILLO TAF SITE BY 07Z TO 08Z
SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ALL THREE TAF SITE THROUGH
06Z SUNDAY. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE AFTER 14Z
SATURDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE DALHART AND AMARILLO TAF SITES
THROUGH ABOUT 04Z TO 06Z SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...EXCEPT IN AND NEAR THE CONVECTION WHERE MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH STRONG AND
ERRATIC WINDS. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH 5
TO 15 KNOTS OUTSIDE THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND
THEN VEERING AROUND MORE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AFTER 14Z
SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER ABOUT 18Z TO 20Z
SATURDAY TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED ABOUT THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS WILL HEAD THIS DIRECTION FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. ONE
OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE OVER CENTRAL COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT. BOTH OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD KEEP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL BREAK DOWN SOME AND BROADEN.
THE PANHANDLES WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD GO DOWN SOME...BUT NOT TO ZERO...ON THESE DAYS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND MOVE BACK FURTHER WEST BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A MUCH STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO
DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS MONDAY. THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL HELP TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PANHANDLES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL AGAIN HELP TO SPARK
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE POST UPSLOPE
ENVIRONMENT ON TUESDAY IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED.

A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PANHANDLES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE A
LEE-SIDE TROUGH TO DEVELOP EACH DAY...SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY FORM ALONG THIS FEATURE EACH DAY.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/88






000
FXUS64 KAMA 040352
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1052 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF THE AMARILLO TAF SITE BY 07Z TO 08Z
SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ALL THREE TAF SITE THROUGH
06Z SUNDAY. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE AFTER 14Z
SATURDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE DALHART AND AMARILLO TAF SITES
THROUGH ABOUT 04Z TO 06Z SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...EXCEPT IN AND NEAR THE CONVECTION WHERE MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH STRONG AND
ERRATIC WINDS. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH 5
TO 15 KNOTS OUTSIDE THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND
THEN VEERING AROUND MORE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AFTER 14Z
SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER ABOUT 18Z TO 20Z
SATURDAY TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED ABOUT THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS WILL HEAD THIS DIRECTION FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. ONE
OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE OVER CENTRAL COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT. BOTH OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD KEEP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL BREAK DOWN SOME AND BROADEN.
THE PANHANDLES WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD GO DOWN SOME...BUT NOT TO ZERO...ON THESE DAYS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND MOVE BACK FURTHER WEST BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A MUCH STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO
DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS MONDAY. THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL HELP TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PANHANDLES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL AGAIN HELP TO SPARK
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE POST UPSLOPE
ENVIRONMENT ON TUESDAY IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED.

A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PANHANDLES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE A
LEE-SIDE TROUGH TO DEVELOP EACH DAY...SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY FORM ALONG THIS FEATURE EACH DAY.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/88







000
FXUS64 KAMA 032352
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
652 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE DALHART AND AMARILLO TAF SITES
THROUGH ABOUT 04Z TO 06Z SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...EXCEPT IN AND NEAR THE CONVECTION WHERE MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH STRONG AND
ERRATIC WINDS. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH 5
TO 15 KNOTS OUTSIDE THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND
THEN VEERING AROUND MORE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AFTER 14Z
SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER ABOUT 18Z TO 20Z
SATURDAY TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED ABOUT THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS WILL HEAD THIS DIRECTION FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. ONE
OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE OVER CENTRAL COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT. BOTH OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD KEEP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL BREAK DOWN SOME AND BROADEN.
THE PANHANDLES WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD GO DOWN SOME...BUT NOT TO ZERO...ON THESE DAYS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND MOVE BACK FURTHER WEST BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A MUCH STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO
DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS MONDAY. THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL HELP TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PANHANDLES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL AGAIN HELP TO SPARK
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE POST UPSLOPE
ENVIRONMENT ON TUESDAY IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED.

A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PANHANDLES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE A
LEE-SIDE TROUGH TO DEVELOP EACH DAY...SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY FORM ALONG THIS FEATURE EACH DAY.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/88







000
FXUS64 KAMA 032352
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
652 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE DALHART AND AMARILLO TAF SITES
THROUGH ABOUT 04Z TO 06Z SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...EXCEPT IN AND NEAR THE CONVECTION WHERE MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH STRONG AND
ERRATIC WINDS. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH 5
TO 15 KNOTS OUTSIDE THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND
THEN VEERING AROUND MORE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AFTER 14Z
SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER ABOUT 18Z TO 20Z
SATURDAY TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED ABOUT THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS WILL HEAD THIS DIRECTION FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. ONE
OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE OVER CENTRAL COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT. BOTH OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD KEEP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL BREAK DOWN SOME AND BROADEN.
THE PANHANDLES WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD GO DOWN SOME...BUT NOT TO ZERO...ON THESE DAYS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND MOVE BACK FURTHER WEST BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A MUCH STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO
DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS MONDAY. THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL HELP TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PANHANDLES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL AGAIN HELP TO SPARK
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE POST UPSLOPE
ENVIRONMENT ON TUESDAY IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED.

A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PANHANDLES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE A
LEE-SIDE TROUGH TO DEVELOP EACH DAY...SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY FORM ALONG THIS FEATURE EACH DAY.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/88






000
FXUS64 KAMA 032000
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
300 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED ABOUT THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS WILL HEAD THIS DIRECTION FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. ONE
OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE OVER CENTRAL COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT. BOTH OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD KEEP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL BREAK DOWN SOME AND BROADEN.
THE PANHANDLES WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD GO DOWN SOME...BUT NOT TO ZERO...ON THESE DAYS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND MOVE BACK FURTHER WEST BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A MUCH STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO
DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS MONDAY. THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL HELP TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PANHANDLES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL AGAIN HELP TO SPARK
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE POST UPSLOPE
ENVIRONMENT ON TUESDAY IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED.

A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PANHANDLES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE A
LEE-SIDE TROUGH TO DEVELOP EACH DAY...SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY FORM ALONG THIS FEATURE EACH DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                66  88  69  89  70 /  40  20  20  10  20
BEAVER OK                  67  90  71  95  73 /  40  30  30  10  30
BOISE CITY OK              64  89  67  92  66 /  40  30  30  20  30
BORGER TX                  68  92  72  94  72 /  40  20  20   5  30
BOYS RANCH TX              66  92  69  95  70 /  40  20  20  20  20
CANYON TX                  67  89  68  91  69 /  40  20  20  10  20
CLARENDON TX               68  89  71  91  71 /  40  20  20   5  20
DALHART TX                 65  92  68  95  68 /  40  20  20  20  30
GUYMON OK                  66  91  70  95  71 /  40  30  30   5  30
HEREFORD TX                66  90  67  92  69 /  40  20  20  10  20
LIPSCOMB TX                67  90  71  94  73 /  40  30  30  10  20
PAMPA TX                   66  88  70  90  69 /  40  20  20   5  20
SHAMROCK TX                69  90  71  92  71 /  40  20  20  10  20
WELLINGTON TX              70  91  73  93  72 /  40  20  20  10  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/15







000
FXUS64 KAMA 032000
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
300 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED ABOUT THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS WILL HEAD THIS DIRECTION FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. ONE
OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE OVER CENTRAL COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT. BOTH OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD KEEP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL BREAK DOWN SOME AND BROADEN.
THE PANHANDLES WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD GO DOWN SOME...BUT NOT TO ZERO...ON THESE DAYS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND MOVE BACK FURTHER WEST BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A MUCH STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO
DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS MONDAY. THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL HELP TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PANHANDLES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL AGAIN HELP TO SPARK
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE POST UPSLOPE
ENVIRONMENT ON TUESDAY IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED.

A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PANHANDLES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE A
LEE-SIDE TROUGH TO DEVELOP EACH DAY...SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY FORM ALONG THIS FEATURE EACH DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                66  88  69  89  70 /  40  20  20  10  20
BEAVER OK                  67  90  71  95  73 /  40  30  30  10  30
BOISE CITY OK              64  89  67  92  66 /  40  30  30  20  30
BORGER TX                  68  92  72  94  72 /  40  20  20   5  30
BOYS RANCH TX              66  92  69  95  70 /  40  20  20  20  20
CANYON TX                  67  89  68  91  69 /  40  20  20  10  20
CLARENDON TX               68  89  71  91  71 /  40  20  20   5  20
DALHART TX                 65  92  68  95  68 /  40  20  20  20  30
GUYMON OK                  66  91  70  95  71 /  40  30  30   5  30
HEREFORD TX                66  90  67  92  69 /  40  20  20  10  20
LIPSCOMB TX                67  90  71  94  73 /  40  30  30  10  20
PAMPA TX                   66  88  70  90  69 /  40  20  20   5  20
SHAMROCK TX                69  90  71  92  71 /  40  20  20  10  20
WELLINGTON TX              70  91  73  93  72 /  40  20  20  10  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/15






000
FXUS64 KAMA 031802 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
102 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHEST FOR
KGUY...SO HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF VCTS THERE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS...COULD SEE GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEFLY LOWER FLIGHT
CATEGORIES DEVELOP. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO START THE TAF PERIOD WILL
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AT ALL SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE TAPERED OFF FOR ALL BUT
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF ANY
CONVECTION. BRIEF...LOCALIZED IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL ONCE AGAIN PREVAIL LATE MORNING AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 8 TO
15KTS AND MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN SPOTTY ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO LEAVE OUT OF TAFS.

ELSENHEIMER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...SOME SEMBLANCE OF NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE. THIS PATTERN...COUPLED WITH LEFTOVER SFC BOUNDARIES FROM
LAST NIGHTS AND THIS MORNINGS TSTMS...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...DAYTIME
HEATING AND ASSOCIATED ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLD
TO SCT TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN CO AND
NERN NM...WHICH WILL LIKELY TRACK INTO OUR FCST AREA. ALSO...THERE
COULD BE SOME TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THE OK AND TX PNHDLS AS WELL LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS WERE UTILIZED FOR
THE FIRST TWO PERIODS OF THIS FCST PKG.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING ISOLD TSTMS SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...
IT APPEARS MOST OF INDEPENDENCE DAY AND NIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY DRY
ACROSS THE FCST AREA. DITTO FOR SUNDAY AS WELL.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN IS
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TX AND OK PNHDLS MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN ANOTHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING POPS FOR TUE AND TUE NIGHT. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND WERE
ACCEPTED.

NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND
EWD TO ENCOMPASS MORE OF THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT THE FCST DRY FROM NEXT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/15






000
FXUS64 KAMA 031802 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
102 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHEST FOR
KGUY...SO HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF VCTS THERE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS...COULD SEE GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEFLY LOWER FLIGHT
CATEGORIES DEVELOP. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO START THE TAF PERIOD WILL
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AT ALL SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE TAPERED OFF FOR ALL BUT
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF ANY
CONVECTION. BRIEF...LOCALIZED IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL ONCE AGAIN PREVAIL LATE MORNING AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 8 TO
15KTS AND MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN SPOTTY ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO LEAVE OUT OF TAFS.

ELSENHEIMER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...SOME SEMBLANCE OF NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE. THIS PATTERN...COUPLED WITH LEFTOVER SFC BOUNDARIES FROM
LAST NIGHTS AND THIS MORNINGS TSTMS...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...DAYTIME
HEATING AND ASSOCIATED ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLD
TO SCT TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN CO AND
NERN NM...WHICH WILL LIKELY TRACK INTO OUR FCST AREA. ALSO...THERE
COULD BE SOME TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THE OK AND TX PNHDLS AS WELL LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS WERE UTILIZED FOR
THE FIRST TWO PERIODS OF THIS FCST PKG.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING ISOLD TSTMS SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...
IT APPEARS MOST OF INDEPENDENCE DAY AND NIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY DRY
ACROSS THE FCST AREA. DITTO FOR SUNDAY AS WELL.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN IS
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TX AND OK PNHDLS MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN ANOTHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING POPS FOR TUE AND TUE NIGHT. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND WERE
ACCEPTED.

NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND
EWD TO ENCOMPASS MORE OF THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT THE FCST DRY FROM NEXT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/15







000
FXUS64 KAMA 031133
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
633 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE TAPERED OFF FOR ALL BUT
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF ANY
CONVECTION. BRIEF...LOCALIZED IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL ONCE AGAIN PREVAIL LATE MORNING AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 8 TO
15KTS AND MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN SPOTTY ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO LEAVE OUT OF TAFS.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...SOME SEMBLANCE OF NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE. THIS PATTERN...COUPLED WITH LEFTOVER SFC BOUNDARIES FROM
LAST NIGHTS AND THIS MORNINGS TSTMS...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...DAYTIME
HEATING AND ASSOCIATED ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLD
TO SCT TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN CO AND
NERN NM...WHICH WILL LIKELY TRACK INTO OUR FCST AREA. ALSO...THERE
COULD BE SOME TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THE OK AND TX PNHDLS AS WELL LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS WERE UTILIZED FOR
THE FIRST TWO PERIODS OF THIS FCST PCKG.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING ISOLD TSTMS SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...
IT APPEARS MOST OF INDEPENDENCE DAY AND NIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY DRY
ACROSS THE FCST AREA. DITTO FOR SUNDAY AS WELL.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN IS
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TX AND OK PNHDLS MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN ANOTHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING POPS FOR TUE AND TUE NIGHT. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND WERE
ACCEPTED.

NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND
EWD TO ENCOMPASS MORE OF THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT THE FCST DRY FROM NEXT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

18/02







000
FXUS64 KAMA 031133
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
633 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE TAPERED OFF FOR ALL BUT
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF ANY
CONVECTION. BRIEF...LOCALIZED IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL ONCE AGAIN PREVAIL LATE MORNING AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 8 TO
15KTS AND MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN SPOTTY ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO LEAVE OUT OF TAFS.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...SOME SEMBLANCE OF NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE. THIS PATTERN...COUPLED WITH LEFTOVER SFC BOUNDARIES FROM
LAST NIGHTS AND THIS MORNINGS TSTMS...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...DAYTIME
HEATING AND ASSOCIATED ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLD
TO SCT TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN CO AND
NERN NM...WHICH WILL LIKELY TRACK INTO OUR FCST AREA. ALSO...THERE
COULD BE SOME TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THE OK AND TX PNHDLS AS WELL LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS WERE UTILIZED FOR
THE FIRST TWO PERIODS OF THIS FCST PCKG.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING ISOLD TSTMS SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...
IT APPEARS MOST OF INDEPENDENCE DAY AND NIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY DRY
ACROSS THE FCST AREA. DITTO FOR SUNDAY AS WELL.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN IS
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TX AND OK PNHDLS MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN ANOTHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING POPS FOR TUE AND TUE NIGHT. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND WERE
ACCEPTED.

NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND
EWD TO ENCOMPASS MORE OF THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT THE FCST DRY FROM NEXT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

18/02






000
FXUS64 KAMA 031133
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
633 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE TAPERED OFF FOR ALL BUT
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF ANY
CONVECTION. BRIEF...LOCALIZED IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL ONCE AGAIN PREVAIL LATE MORNING AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 8 TO
15KTS AND MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN SPOTTY ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO LEAVE OUT OF TAFS.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...SOME SEMBLANCE OF NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE. THIS PATTERN...COUPLED WITH LEFTOVER SFC BOUNDARIES FROM
LAST NIGHTS AND THIS MORNINGS TSTMS...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...DAYTIME
HEATING AND ASSOCIATED ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLD
TO SCT TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN CO AND
NERN NM...WHICH WILL LIKELY TRACK INTO OUR FCST AREA. ALSO...THERE
COULD BE SOME TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THE OK AND TX PNHDLS AS WELL LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS WERE UTILIZED FOR
THE FIRST TWO PERIODS OF THIS FCST PCKG.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING ISOLD TSTMS SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...
IT APPEARS MOST OF INDEPENDENCE DAY AND NIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY DRY
ACROSS THE FCST AREA. DITTO FOR SUNDAY AS WELL.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN IS
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TX AND OK PNHDLS MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN ANOTHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING POPS FOR TUE AND TUE NIGHT. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND WERE
ACCEPTED.

NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND
EWD TO ENCOMPASS MORE OF THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT THE FCST DRY FROM NEXT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

18/02






000
FXUS64 KAMA 031133
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
633 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE TAPERED OFF FOR ALL BUT
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF ANY
CONVECTION. BRIEF...LOCALIZED IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL ONCE AGAIN PREVAIL LATE MORNING AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 8 TO
15KTS AND MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN SPOTTY ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO LEAVE OUT OF TAFS.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...SOME SEMBLANCE OF NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE. THIS PATTERN...COUPLED WITH LEFTOVER SFC BOUNDARIES FROM
LAST NIGHTS AND THIS MORNINGS TSTMS...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...DAYTIME
HEATING AND ASSOCIATED ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLD
TO SCT TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN CO AND
NERN NM...WHICH WILL LIKELY TRACK INTO OUR FCST AREA. ALSO...THERE
COULD BE SOME TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THE OK AND TX PNHDLS AS WELL LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS WERE UTILIZED FOR
THE FIRST TWO PERIODS OF THIS FCST PCKG.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING ISOLD TSTMS SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...
IT APPEARS MOST OF INDEPENDENCE DAY AND NIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY DRY
ACROSS THE FCST AREA. DITTO FOR SUNDAY AS WELL.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN IS
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TX AND OK PNHDLS MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN ANOTHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING POPS FOR TUE AND TUE NIGHT. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND WERE
ACCEPTED.

NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND
EWD TO ENCOMPASS MORE OF THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT THE FCST DRY FROM NEXT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

18/02







000
FXUS64 KAMA 030931
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
431 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...SOME SEMBLANCE OF NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE. THIS PATTERN...COUPLED WITH LEFTOVER SFC BOUNDARIES FROM
LAST NIGHTS AND THIS MORNINGS TSTMS...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...DAYTIME
HEATING AND ASSOCIATED ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLD
TO SCT TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN CO AND
NERN NM...WHICH WILL LIKELY TRACK INTO OUR FCST AREA. ALSO...THERE
COULD BE SOME TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THE OK AND TX PNHDLS AS WELL LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS WERE UTILIZED FOR
THE FIRST TWO PERIODS OF THIS FCST PCKG.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING ISOLD TSTMS SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...
IT APPEARS MOST OF INDEPENDENCE DAY AND NIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY DRY
ACROSS THE FCST AREA. DITTO FOR SUNDAY AS WELL.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN IS
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TX AND OK PNHDLS MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN ANOTHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING POPS FOR TUE AND TUE NIGHT. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND WERE
ACCEPTED.

NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND
EWD TO ENCOMPASS MORE OF THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT THE FCST DRY FROM NEXT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                88  66  92  68  92 /  30  30  20  10   5
BEAVER OK                  90  66  94  70  95 /  30  20  20  20   5
BOISE CITY OK              87  64  91  65  93 /  30  40  20  20   5
BORGER TX                  92  68  94  71  94 /  30  30  20  20   5
BOYS RANCH TX              90  65  93  67  93 /  30  40  20  10   5
CANYON TX                  88  66  92  67  91 /  30  30  20  10   5
CLARENDON TX               90  68  93  70  93 /  30  30  20  10   5
DALHART TX                 89  65  93  66  93 /  30  40  20  20   5
GUYMON OK                  90  66  94  69  96 /  30  30  20  20   5
HEREFORD TX                88  65  92  66  91 /  30  40  20  10   5
LIPSCOMB TX                90  66  93  70  94 /  30  20  20  20   5
PAMPA TX                   89  66  92  69  92 /  30  30  20  20   5
SHAMROCK TX                91  68  93  71  93 /  30  30  20  20   5
WELLINGTON TX              92  70  94  72  94 /  30  30  20  20   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 030931
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
431 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...SOME SEMBLANCE OF NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE. THIS PATTERN...COUPLED WITH LEFTOVER SFC BOUNDARIES FROM
LAST NIGHTS AND THIS MORNINGS TSTMS...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...DAYTIME
HEATING AND ASSOCIATED ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLD
TO SCT TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN CO AND
NERN NM...WHICH WILL LIKELY TRACK INTO OUR FCST AREA. ALSO...THERE
COULD BE SOME TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THE OK AND TX PNHDLS AS WELL LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS WERE UTILIZED FOR
THE FIRST TWO PERIODS OF THIS FCST PCKG.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING ISOLD TSTMS SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...
IT APPEARS MOST OF INDEPENDENCE DAY AND NIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY DRY
ACROSS THE FCST AREA. DITTO FOR SUNDAY AS WELL.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN IS
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TX AND OK PNHDLS MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN ANOTHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING POPS FOR TUE AND TUE NIGHT. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND WERE
ACCEPTED.

NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND
EWD TO ENCOMPASS MORE OF THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT THE FCST DRY FROM NEXT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                88  66  92  68  92 /  30  30  20  10   5
BEAVER OK                  90  66  94  70  95 /  30  20  20  20   5
BOISE CITY OK              87  64  91  65  93 /  30  40  20  20   5
BORGER TX                  92  68  94  71  94 /  30  30  20  20   5
BOYS RANCH TX              90  65  93  67  93 /  30  40  20  10   5
CANYON TX                  88  66  92  67  91 /  30  30  20  10   5
CLARENDON TX               90  68  93  70  93 /  30  30  20  10   5
DALHART TX                 89  65  93  66  93 /  30  40  20  20   5
GUYMON OK                  90  66  94  69  96 /  30  30  20  20   5
HEREFORD TX                88  65  92  66  91 /  30  40  20  10   5
LIPSCOMB TX                90  66  93  70  94 /  30  20  20  20   5
PAMPA TX                   89  66  92  69  92 /  30  30  20  20   5
SHAMROCK TX                91  68  93  71  93 /  30  30  20  20   5
WELLINGTON TX              92  70  94  72  94 /  30  30  20  20   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 030552
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1252 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT...INCLUDING KAMA. WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF ANY
CONVECTION. BRIEF...LOCALIZED MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE FROM
NOW THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY
CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS WILL ONCE
AGAIN PREVAIL LATE MORNING AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 8 TO 15KTS OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPOTTY
ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO LEAVE OUT OF TAFS.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...EVEN ONCE THE CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WEAKENS
WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BELIEVE THERE IS ENOUGH OF A COLD
POOL/OUTFLOW THAT THE STORMS WILL LIKELY TRACK SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ERN PANHANDLE COUNTIES WHERE HIGHER SB CAPE VALUES EXIST (AOA 3000
J/KG WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN AT 6 PM). GIVEN THIS...RADAR TRENDS...AND
HRRR OUTPUT SUPPORTING THE THEORY...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
RANGE IN ERN TWO COLUMNS OF TX PANHANDLE COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENING
WITH LOW/SCT POPS FURTHER WEST. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT UPDATES ATTM.

MJG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

AVIATION...CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. A FEW STORMS MAY BE CLOSE TO GUY
IN NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO
REMAIN EAST OF TAF SITES AND FOR NOW HAVE NOT INCLUDED TSTMS IN SITES
OTHER THAN GUY. SCT TSTM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR AGAIN MAINLY LATE FRI
AFTN. DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM GIVEN POPS ONLY AROUND 30 RANGE
ATTM. VFR WILL PREVAIL OTHER THAN IN AREAS IMPACTED BY STORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING AND AGAIN FOR THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER-AIR
PATTERN WILL FEATURE A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY FOR
THE WEEK AHEAD AS COMPARED WITH THE LAST WEEK. A WEAKENING AND
FLATTENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL
ONLY RE-INTENSIFY LATE NEXT WEEK. THE WEAKNESS OF THIS RIDGE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR PASSING SHORTWAVES TO DICTATE MUCH OF THE WEATHER OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY ARE DIMINISHING AS MOST OF THE
PANHANDLE REMAINS BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE LINGERING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
A FEW ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN EAST-
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. ANY FURTHER PRECIPITATION IN THE TX/OK PANHANDLES
TODAY WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER ANYTHING CAN DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH IN
THE NM/CO MOUNTAINS AND DRIFT OUR WAY.

ON AND OFF RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT REMAINS STRETCHED FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. THIS TROUGH SHOULD BE PUSHED SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY SOMETIME ON SATURDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...HELPING TO FLATTEN THE
SOUTHWEST RIDGE EVEN FURTHER AND BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONT AND FOR ITS POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AS
IT PASSES THROUGH. HAVE INCREASED POPS DURING THE MONDAY/TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

THE LOWER- AND MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY THIS TIME...BRINGING SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
UNDER AND AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL CERTAINLY HELP
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO OUR WEST...AND MAY
REQUIRE INCREASING POPS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THIS
PATTERN TAKES SHAPE. SINCE THIS ACTIVITY WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO OUR WEST AND
THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES AROUND IT...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED MENTION OF
POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NF/HL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

18/02






000
FXUS64 KAMA 030552
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1252 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT...INCLUDING KAMA. WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF ANY
CONVECTION. BRIEF...LOCALIZED MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE FROM
NOW THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY
CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS WILL ONCE
AGAIN PREVAIL LATE MORNING AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 8 TO 15KTS OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPOTTY
ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO LEAVE OUT OF TAFS.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...EVEN ONCE THE CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WEAKENS
WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BELIEVE THERE IS ENOUGH OF A COLD
POOL/OUTFLOW THAT THE STORMS WILL LIKELY TRACK SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ERN PANHANDLE COUNTIES WHERE HIGHER SB CAPE VALUES EXIST (AOA 3000
J/KG WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN AT 6 PM). GIVEN THIS...RADAR TRENDS...AND
HRRR OUTPUT SUPPORTING THE THEORY...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
RANGE IN ERN TWO COLUMNS OF TX PANHANDLE COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENING
WITH LOW/SCT POPS FURTHER WEST. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT UPDATES ATTM.

MJG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

AVIATION...CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. A FEW STORMS MAY BE CLOSE TO GUY
IN NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO
REMAIN EAST OF TAF SITES AND FOR NOW HAVE NOT INCLUDED TSTMS IN SITES
OTHER THAN GUY. SCT TSTM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR AGAIN MAINLY LATE FRI
AFTN. DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM GIVEN POPS ONLY AROUND 30 RANGE
ATTM. VFR WILL PREVAIL OTHER THAN IN AREAS IMPACTED BY STORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING AND AGAIN FOR THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER-AIR
PATTERN WILL FEATURE A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY FOR
THE WEEK AHEAD AS COMPARED WITH THE LAST WEEK. A WEAKENING AND
FLATTENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL
ONLY RE-INTENSIFY LATE NEXT WEEK. THE WEAKNESS OF THIS RIDGE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR PASSING SHORTWAVES TO DICTATE MUCH OF THE WEATHER OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY ARE DIMINISHING AS MOST OF THE
PANHANDLE REMAINS BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE LINGERING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
A FEW ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN EAST-
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. ANY FURTHER PRECIPITATION IN THE TX/OK PANHANDLES
TODAY WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER ANYTHING CAN DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH IN
THE NM/CO MOUNTAINS AND DRIFT OUR WAY.

ON AND OFF RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT REMAINS STRETCHED FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. THIS TROUGH SHOULD BE PUSHED SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY SOMETIME ON SATURDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...HELPING TO FLATTEN THE
SOUTHWEST RIDGE EVEN FURTHER AND BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONT AND FOR ITS POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AS
IT PASSES THROUGH. HAVE INCREASED POPS DURING THE MONDAY/TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

THE LOWER- AND MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY THIS TIME...BRINGING SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
UNDER AND AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL CERTAINLY HELP
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO OUR WEST...AND MAY
REQUIRE INCREASING POPS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THIS
PATTERN TAKES SHAPE. SINCE THIS ACTIVITY WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO OUR WEST AND
THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES AROUND IT...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED MENTION OF
POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NF/HL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

18/02






000
FXUS64 KAMA 030038 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
738 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...EVEN ONCE THE CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WEAKENS
WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BELIEVE THERE IS ENOUGH OF A COLD
POOL/OUTFLOW THAT THE STORMS WILL LIKELY TRACK SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ERN PANHANDLE COUNTIES WHERE HIGHER SB CAPE VALUES EXIST (AOA 3000
J/KG WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN AT 6 PM). GIVEN THIS...RADAR TRENDS...AND
HRRR OUTPUT SUPPORTING THE THEORY...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
RANGE IN ERN TWO COLUMNS OF TX PANHANDLE COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENING
WITH LOW/SCT POPS FURTHER WEST. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT UPDATES ATTM.

MJG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

AVIATION...CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. A FEW STORMS MAY BE CLOSE TO GUY
IN NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO
REMAIN EAST OF TAF SITES AND FOR NOW HAVE NOT INCLUDED TSTMS IN SITES
OTHER THAN GUY. SCT TSTM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR AGAIN MAINLY LATE FRI
AFTN. DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM GIVEN POPS ONLY AROUND 30 RANGE
ATTM. VFR WILL PREVAIL OTHER THAN IN AREAS IMPACTED BY STORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING AND AGAIN FOR THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER-AIR
PATTERN WILL FEATURE A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY FOR
THE WEEK AHEAD AS COMPARED WITH THE LAST WEEK. A WEAKENING AND
FLATTENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL
ONLY RE-INTENSIFY LATE NEXT WEEK. THE WEAKNESS OF THIS RIDGE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR PASSING SHORTWAVES TO DICTATE MUCH OF THE WEATHER OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY ARE DIMINISHING AS MOST OF THE
PANHANDLE REMAINS BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE LINGERING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
A FEW ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN EAST-
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. ANY FURTHER PRECIPITATION IN THE TX/OK PANHANDLES
TODAY WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER ANYTHING CAN DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH IN
THE NM/CO MOUNTAINS AND DRIFT OUR WAY.

ON AND OFF RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT REMAINS STRETCHED FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. THIS TROUGH SHOULD BE PUSHED SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY SOMETIME ON SATURDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...HELPING TO FLATTEN THE
SOUTHWEST RIDGE EVEN FURTHER AND BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONT AND FOR ITS POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AS
IT PASSES THROUGH. HAVE INCREASED POPS DURING THE MONDAY/TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

THE LOWER- AND MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY THIS TIME...BRINGING SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
UNDER AND AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL CERTAINLY HELP
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO OUR WEST...AND MAY
REQUIRE INCREASING POPS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THIS
PATTERN TAKES SHAPE. SINCE THIS ACTIVITY WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO OUR WEST AND
THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES AROUND IT...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED MENTION OF
POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NF/HL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                67  86  65  90  68 /  30  30  40  20  10
BEAVER OK                  67  89  67  93  70 /  70  30  30  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              64  86  62  90  66 /  30  30  40  10  20
BORGER TX                  69  90  68  92  71 /  50  30  30  20  10
BOYS RANCH TX              67  90  66  92  69 /  40  30  40  10  10
CANYON TX                  67  87  65  91  67 /  30  30  40  20  10
CLARENDON TX               69  89  67  91  69 /  50  30  30  20  10
DALHART TX                 65  88  64  92  66 /  30  30  40  10  10
GUYMON OK                  67  88  66  93  69 /  30  30  30  10  20
HEREFORD TX                66  87  65  90  67 /  40  30  40  10  10
LIPSCOMB TX                67  89  67  91  71 /  70  30  30  20  20
PAMPA TX                   67  87  65  89  68 /  70  30  30  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                69  90  67  91  70 /  70  30  30  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              71  91  69  93  72 /  50  30  30  20  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

MJG








000
FXUS64 KAMA 030038 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
738 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...EVEN ONCE THE CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WEAKENS
WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BELIEVE THERE IS ENOUGH OF A COLD
POOL/OUTFLOW THAT THE STORMS WILL LIKELY TRACK SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ERN PANHANDLE COUNTIES WHERE HIGHER SB CAPE VALUES EXIST (AOA 3000
J/KG WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN AT 6 PM). GIVEN THIS...RADAR TRENDS...AND
HRRR OUTPUT SUPPORTING THE THEORY...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
RANGE IN ERN TWO COLUMNS OF TX PANHANDLE COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENING
WITH LOW/SCT POPS FURTHER WEST. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT UPDATES ATTM.

MJG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

AVIATION...CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. A FEW STORMS MAY BE CLOSE TO GUY
IN NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO
REMAIN EAST OF TAF SITES AND FOR NOW HAVE NOT INCLUDED TSTMS IN SITES
OTHER THAN GUY. SCT TSTM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR AGAIN MAINLY LATE FRI
AFTN. DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM GIVEN POPS ONLY AROUND 30 RANGE
ATTM. VFR WILL PREVAIL OTHER THAN IN AREAS IMPACTED BY STORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING AND AGAIN FOR THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER-AIR
PATTERN WILL FEATURE A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY FOR
THE WEEK AHEAD AS COMPARED WITH THE LAST WEEK. A WEAKENING AND
FLATTENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL
ONLY RE-INTENSIFY LATE NEXT WEEK. THE WEAKNESS OF THIS RIDGE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR PASSING SHORTWAVES TO DICTATE MUCH OF THE WEATHER OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY ARE DIMINISHING AS MOST OF THE
PANHANDLE REMAINS BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE LINGERING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
A FEW ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN EAST-
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. ANY FURTHER PRECIPITATION IN THE TX/OK PANHANDLES
TODAY WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER ANYTHING CAN DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH IN
THE NM/CO MOUNTAINS AND DRIFT OUR WAY.

ON AND OFF RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT REMAINS STRETCHED FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. THIS TROUGH SHOULD BE PUSHED SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY SOMETIME ON SATURDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...HELPING TO FLATTEN THE
SOUTHWEST RIDGE EVEN FURTHER AND BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONT AND FOR ITS POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AS
IT PASSES THROUGH. HAVE INCREASED POPS DURING THE MONDAY/TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

THE LOWER- AND MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY THIS TIME...BRINGING SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
UNDER AND AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL CERTAINLY HELP
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO OUR WEST...AND MAY
REQUIRE INCREASING POPS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THIS
PATTERN TAKES SHAPE. SINCE THIS ACTIVITY WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO OUR WEST AND
THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES AROUND IT...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED MENTION OF
POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NF/HL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                67  86  65  90  68 /  30  30  40  20  10
BEAVER OK                  67  89  67  93  70 /  70  30  30  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              64  86  62  90  66 /  30  30  40  10  20
BORGER TX                  69  90  68  92  71 /  50  30  30  20  10
BOYS RANCH TX              67  90  66  92  69 /  40  30  40  10  10
CANYON TX                  67  87  65  91  67 /  30  30  40  20  10
CLARENDON TX               69  89  67  91  69 /  50  30  30  20  10
DALHART TX                 65  88  64  92  66 /  30  30  40  10  10
GUYMON OK                  67  88  66  93  69 /  30  30  30  10  20
HEREFORD TX                66  87  65  90  67 /  40  30  40  10  10
LIPSCOMB TX                67  89  67  91  71 /  70  30  30  20  20
PAMPA TX                   67  87  65  89  68 /  70  30  30  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                69  90  67  91  70 /  70  30  30  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              71  91  69  93  72 /  50  30  30  20  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

MJG







000
FXUS64 KAMA 030038 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
738 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...EVEN ONCE THE CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WEAKENS
WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BELIEVE THERE IS ENOUGH OF A COLD
POOL/OUTFLOW THAT THE STORMS WILL LIKELY TRACK SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ERN PANHANDLE COUNTIES WHERE HIGHER SB CAPE VALUES EXIST (AOA 3000
J/KG WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN AT 6 PM). GIVEN THIS...RADAR TRENDS...AND
HRRR OUTPUT SUPPORTING THE THEORY...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
RANGE IN ERN TWO COLUMNS OF TX PANHANDLE COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENING
WITH LOW/SCT POPS FURTHER WEST. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT UPDATES ATTM.

MJG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

AVIATION...CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. A FEW STORMS MAY BE CLOSE TO GUY
IN NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO
REMAIN EAST OF TAF SITES AND FOR NOW HAVE NOT INCLUDED TSTMS IN SITES
OTHER THAN GUY. SCT TSTM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR AGAIN MAINLY LATE FRI
AFTN. DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM GIVEN POPS ONLY AROUND 30 RANGE
ATTM. VFR WILL PREVAIL OTHER THAN IN AREAS IMPACTED BY STORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING AND AGAIN FOR THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER-AIR
PATTERN WILL FEATURE A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY FOR
THE WEEK AHEAD AS COMPARED WITH THE LAST WEEK. A WEAKENING AND
FLATTENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL
ONLY RE-INTENSIFY LATE NEXT WEEK. THE WEAKNESS OF THIS RIDGE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR PASSING SHORTWAVES TO DICTATE MUCH OF THE WEATHER OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY ARE DIMINISHING AS MOST OF THE
PANHANDLE REMAINS BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE LINGERING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
A FEW ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN EAST-
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. ANY FURTHER PRECIPITATION IN THE TX/OK PANHANDLES
TODAY WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER ANYTHING CAN DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH IN
THE NM/CO MOUNTAINS AND DRIFT OUR WAY.

ON AND OFF RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT REMAINS STRETCHED FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. THIS TROUGH SHOULD BE PUSHED SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY SOMETIME ON SATURDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...HELPING TO FLATTEN THE
SOUTHWEST RIDGE EVEN FURTHER AND BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONT AND FOR ITS POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AS
IT PASSES THROUGH. HAVE INCREASED POPS DURING THE MONDAY/TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

THE LOWER- AND MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY THIS TIME...BRINGING SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
UNDER AND AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL CERTAINLY HELP
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO OUR WEST...AND MAY
REQUIRE INCREASING POPS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THIS
PATTERN TAKES SHAPE. SINCE THIS ACTIVITY WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO OUR WEST AND
THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES AROUND IT...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED MENTION OF
POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NF/HL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                67  86  65  90  68 /  30  30  40  20  10
BEAVER OK                  67  89  67  93  70 /  70  30  30  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              64  86  62  90  66 /  30  30  40  10  20
BORGER TX                  69  90  68  92  71 /  50  30  30  20  10
BOYS RANCH TX              67  90  66  92  69 /  40  30  40  10  10
CANYON TX                  67  87  65  91  67 /  30  30  40  20  10
CLARENDON TX               69  89  67  91  69 /  50  30  30  20  10
DALHART TX                 65  88  64  92  66 /  30  30  40  10  10
GUYMON OK                  67  88  66  93  69 /  30  30  30  10  20
HEREFORD TX                66  87  65  90  67 /  40  30  40  10  10
LIPSCOMB TX                67  89  67  91  71 /  70  30  30  20  20
PAMPA TX                   67  87  65  89  68 /  70  30  30  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                69  90  67  91  70 /  70  30  30  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              71  91  69  93  72 /  50  30  30  20  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

MJG








000
FXUS64 KAMA 022342 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
642 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. A FEW STORMS MAY BE CLOSE TO GUY
IN NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO
REMAIN EAST OF TAF SITES AND FOR NOW HAVE NOT INCLUDED TSTMS IN SITES
OTHER THAN GUY. SCT TSTM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR AGAIN MAINLY LATE FRI
AFTN. DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM GIVEN POPS ONLY AROUND 30 RANGE
ATTM. VFR WILL PREVAIL OTHER THAN IN AREAS IMPACTED BY STORMS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING AND AGAIN FOR THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER-AIR
PATTERN WILL FEATURE A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY FOR
THE WEEK AHEAD AS COMPARED WITH THE LAST WEEK. A WEAKENING AND
FLATTENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL
ONLY RE-INTENSIFY LATE NEXT WEEK. THE WEAKNESS OF THIS RIDGE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR PASSING SHORTWAVES TO DICTATE MUCH OF THE WEATHER OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY ARE DIMINISHING AS MOST OF THE
PANHANDLE REMAINS BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE LINGERING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
A FEW ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN EAST-
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. ANY FURTHER PRECIPITATION IN THE TX/OK PANHANDLES
TODAY WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER ANYTHING CAN DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH IN
THE NM/CO MOUNTAINS AND DRIFT OUR WAY.

ON AND OFF RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT REMAINS STRETCHED FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. THIS TROUGH SHOULD BE PUSHED SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY SOMETIME ON SATURDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...HELPING TO FLATTEN THE
SOUTHWEST RIDGE EVEN FURTHER AND BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONT AND FOR ITS POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AS
IT PASSES THROUGH. HAVE INCREASED POPS DURING THE MONDAY/TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

THE LOWER- AND MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY THIS TIME...BRINGING SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
UNDER AND AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL CERTAINLY HELP
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO OUR WEST...AND MAY
REQUIRE INCREASING POPS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THIS
PATTERN TAKES SHAPE. SINCE THIS ACTIVITY WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO OUR WEST AND
THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES AROUND IT...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED MENTION OF
POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NF/HL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

88/88








000
FXUS64 KAMA 022342 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
642 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. A FEW STORMS MAY BE CLOSE TO GUY
IN NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO
REMAIN EAST OF TAF SITES AND FOR NOW HAVE NOT INCLUDED TSTMS IN SITES
OTHER THAN GUY. SCT TSTM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR AGAIN MAINLY LATE FRI
AFTN. DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM GIVEN POPS ONLY AROUND 30 RANGE
ATTM. VFR WILL PREVAIL OTHER THAN IN AREAS IMPACTED BY STORMS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING AND AGAIN FOR THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER-AIR
PATTERN WILL FEATURE A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY FOR
THE WEEK AHEAD AS COMPARED WITH THE LAST WEEK. A WEAKENING AND
FLATTENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL
ONLY RE-INTENSIFY LATE NEXT WEEK. THE WEAKNESS OF THIS RIDGE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR PASSING SHORTWAVES TO DICTATE MUCH OF THE WEATHER OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY ARE DIMINISHING AS MOST OF THE
PANHANDLE REMAINS BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE LINGERING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
A FEW ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN EAST-
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. ANY FURTHER PRECIPITATION IN THE TX/OK PANHANDLES
TODAY WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER ANYTHING CAN DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH IN
THE NM/CO MOUNTAINS AND DRIFT OUR WAY.

ON AND OFF RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT REMAINS STRETCHED FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. THIS TROUGH SHOULD BE PUSHED SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY SOMETIME ON SATURDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...HELPING TO FLATTEN THE
SOUTHWEST RIDGE EVEN FURTHER AND BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONT AND FOR ITS POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AS
IT PASSES THROUGH. HAVE INCREASED POPS DURING THE MONDAY/TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

THE LOWER- AND MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY THIS TIME...BRINGING SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
UNDER AND AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL CERTAINLY HELP
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO OUR WEST...AND MAY
REQUIRE INCREASING POPS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THIS
PATTERN TAKES SHAPE. SINCE THIS ACTIVITY WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO OUR WEST AND
THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES AROUND IT...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED MENTION OF
POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NF/HL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

88/88







000
FXUS64 KAMA 022048
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
348 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING AND AGAIN FOR THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER-AIR
PATTERN WILL FEATURE A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY FOR
THE WEEK AHEAD AS COMPARED WITH THE LAST WEEK. A WEAKENING AND
FLATTENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL
ONLY RE-INTENSIFY LATE NEXT WEEK. THE WEAKNESS OF THIS RIDGE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR PASSING SHORTWAVES TO DICTATE MUCH OF THE WEATHER OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY ARE DIMINISHING AS MOST OF THE
PANHANDLE REMAINS BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE LINGERING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
A FEW ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN EAST-
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. ANY FURTHER PRECIPITATION IN THE TX/OK PANHANDLES
TODAY WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER ANYTHING CAN DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH IN
THE NM/CO MOUNTAINS AND DRIFT OUR WAY.

ON AND OFF RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT REMAINS STRETCHED FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. THIS TROUGH SHOULD BE PUSHED SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY SOMETIME ON SATURDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...HELPING TO FLATTEN THE
SOUTHWEST RIDGE EVEN FURTHER AND BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONT AND FOR ITS POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AS
IT PASSES THROUGH. HAVE INCREASED POPS DURING THE MONDAY/TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

THE LOWER- AND MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY THIS TIME...BRINGING SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
UNDER AND AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL CERTAINLY HELP
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO OUR WEST...AND MAY
REQUIRE INCREASING POPS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THIS
PATTERN TAKES SHAPE. SINCE THIS ACTIVITY WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO OUR WEST AND
THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES AROUND IT...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED MENTION OF
POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NF/HL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                67  86  65  90  68 /  30  30  40  20  10
BEAVER OK                  67  89  67  93  70 /  20  30  30  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              64  86  62  90  66 /  30  30  40  10  20
BORGER TX                  69  90  68  92  71 /  30  30  30  20  10
BOYS RANCH TX              67  90  66  92  69 /  30  30  40  10  10
CANYON TX                  67  87  65  91  67 /  30  30  40  20  10
CLARENDON TX               69  89  67  91  69 /  30  30  30  20  10
DALHART TX                 65  88  64  92  66 /  30  30  40  10  10
GUYMON OK                  67  88  66  93  69 /  30  30  30  10  20
HEREFORD TX                66  87  65  90  67 /  30  30  40  10  10
LIPSCOMB TX                67  89  67  91  71 /  20  30  30  20  20
PAMPA TX                   67  87  65  89  68 /  30  30  30  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                69  90  67  91  70 /  30  30  30  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              71  91  69  93  72 /  30  30  30  20  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/06






000
FXUS64 KAMA 022048
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
348 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING AND AGAIN FOR THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER-AIR
PATTERN WILL FEATURE A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY FOR
THE WEEK AHEAD AS COMPARED WITH THE LAST WEEK. A WEAKENING AND
FLATTENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL
ONLY RE-INTENSIFY LATE NEXT WEEK. THE WEAKNESS OF THIS RIDGE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR PASSING SHORTWAVES TO DICTATE MUCH OF THE WEATHER OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY ARE DIMINISHING AS MOST OF THE
PANHANDLE REMAINS BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE LINGERING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
A FEW ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN EAST-
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. ANY FURTHER PRECIPITATION IN THE TX/OK PANHANDLES
TODAY WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER ANYTHING CAN DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH IN
THE NM/CO MOUNTAINS AND DRIFT OUR WAY.

ON AND OFF RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT REMAINS STRETCHED FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. THIS TROUGH SHOULD BE PUSHED SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY SOMETIME ON SATURDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...HELPING TO FLATTEN THE
SOUTHWEST RIDGE EVEN FURTHER AND BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONT AND FOR ITS POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AS
IT PASSES THROUGH. HAVE INCREASED POPS DURING THE MONDAY/TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

THE LOWER- AND MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY THIS TIME...BRINGING SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
UNDER AND AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL CERTAINLY HELP
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO OUR WEST...AND MAY
REQUIRE INCREASING POPS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THIS
PATTERN TAKES SHAPE. SINCE THIS ACTIVITY WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO OUR WEST AND
THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES AROUND IT...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED MENTION OF
POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NF/HL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                67  86  65  90  68 /  30  30  40  20  10
BEAVER OK                  67  89  67  93  70 /  20  30  30  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              64  86  62  90  66 /  30  30  40  10  20
BORGER TX                  69  90  68  92  71 /  30  30  30  20  10
BOYS RANCH TX              67  90  66  92  69 /  30  30  40  10  10
CANYON TX                  67  87  65  91  67 /  30  30  40  20  10
CLARENDON TX               69  89  67  91  69 /  30  30  30  20  10
DALHART TX                 65  88  64  92  66 /  30  30  40  10  10
GUYMON OK                  67  88  66  93  69 /  30  30  30  10  20
HEREFORD TX                66  87  65  90  67 /  30  30  40  10  10
LIPSCOMB TX                67  89  67  91  71 /  20  30  30  20  20
PAMPA TX                   67  87  65  89  68 /  30  30  30  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                69  90  67  91  70 /  30  30  30  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              71  91  69  93  72 /  30  30  30  20  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/06







000
FXUS64 KAMA 022048
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
348 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING AND AGAIN FOR THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER-AIR
PATTERN WILL FEATURE A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY FOR
THE WEEK AHEAD AS COMPARED WITH THE LAST WEEK. A WEAKENING AND
FLATTENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL
ONLY RE-INTENSIFY LATE NEXT WEEK. THE WEAKNESS OF THIS RIDGE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR PASSING SHORTWAVES TO DICTATE MUCH OF THE WEATHER OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY ARE DIMINISHING AS MOST OF THE
PANHANDLE REMAINS BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE LINGERING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
A FEW ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN EAST-
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. ANY FURTHER PRECIPITATION IN THE TX/OK PANHANDLES
TODAY WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER ANYTHING CAN DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH IN
THE NM/CO MOUNTAINS AND DRIFT OUR WAY.

ON AND OFF RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT REMAINS STRETCHED FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. THIS TROUGH SHOULD BE PUSHED SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY SOMETIME ON SATURDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...HELPING TO FLATTEN THE
SOUTHWEST RIDGE EVEN FURTHER AND BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONT AND FOR ITS POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AS
IT PASSES THROUGH. HAVE INCREASED POPS DURING THE MONDAY/TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

THE LOWER- AND MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY THIS TIME...BRINGING SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
UNDER AND AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL CERTAINLY HELP
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO OUR WEST...AND MAY
REQUIRE INCREASING POPS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THIS
PATTERN TAKES SHAPE. SINCE THIS ACTIVITY WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO OUR WEST AND
THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES AROUND IT...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED MENTION OF
POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NF/HL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                67  86  65  90  68 /  30  30  40  20  10
BEAVER OK                  67  89  67  93  70 /  20  30  30  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              64  86  62  90  66 /  30  30  40  10  20
BORGER TX                  69  90  68  92  71 /  30  30  30  20  10
BOYS RANCH TX              67  90  66  92  69 /  30  30  40  10  10
CANYON TX                  67  87  65  91  67 /  30  30  40  20  10
CLARENDON TX               69  89  67  91  69 /  30  30  30  20  10
DALHART TX                 65  88  64  92  66 /  30  30  40  10  10
GUYMON OK                  67  88  66  93  69 /  30  30  30  10  20
HEREFORD TX                66  87  65  90  67 /  30  30  40  10  10
LIPSCOMB TX                67  89  67  91  71 /  20  30  30  20  20
PAMPA TX                   67  87  65  89  68 /  30  30  30  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                69  90  67  91  70 /  30  30  30  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              71  91  69  93  72 /  30  30  30  20  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/06






000
FXUS64 KAMA 022048
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
348 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING AND AGAIN FOR THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER-AIR
PATTERN WILL FEATURE A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY FOR
THE WEEK AHEAD AS COMPARED WITH THE LAST WEEK. A WEAKENING AND
FLATTENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL
ONLY RE-INTENSIFY LATE NEXT WEEK. THE WEAKNESS OF THIS RIDGE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR PASSING SHORTWAVES TO DICTATE MUCH OF THE WEATHER OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY ARE DIMINISHING AS MOST OF THE
PANHANDLE REMAINS BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE LINGERING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
A FEW ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN EAST-
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. ANY FURTHER PRECIPITATION IN THE TX/OK PANHANDLES
TODAY WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER ANYTHING CAN DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH IN
THE NM/CO MOUNTAINS AND DRIFT OUR WAY.

ON AND OFF RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT REMAINS STRETCHED FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. THIS TROUGH SHOULD BE PUSHED SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY SOMETIME ON SATURDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...HELPING TO FLATTEN THE
SOUTHWEST RIDGE EVEN FURTHER AND BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONT AND FOR ITS POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AS
IT PASSES THROUGH. HAVE INCREASED POPS DURING THE MONDAY/TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

THE LOWER- AND MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY THIS TIME...BRINGING SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
UNDER AND AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL CERTAINLY HELP
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO OUR WEST...AND MAY
REQUIRE INCREASING POPS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THIS
PATTERN TAKES SHAPE. SINCE THIS ACTIVITY WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO OUR WEST AND
THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES AROUND IT...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED MENTION OF
POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NF/HL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                67  86  65  90  68 /  30  30  40  20  10
BEAVER OK                  67  89  67  93  70 /  20  30  30  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              64  86  62  90  66 /  30  30  40  10  20
BORGER TX                  69  90  68  92  71 /  30  30  30  20  10
BOYS RANCH TX              67  90  66  92  69 /  30  30  40  10  10
CANYON TX                  67  87  65  91  67 /  30  30  40  20  10
CLARENDON TX               69  89  67  91  69 /  30  30  30  20  10
DALHART TX                 65  88  64  92  66 /  30  30  40  10  10
GUYMON OK                  67  88  66  93  69 /  30  30  30  10  20
HEREFORD TX                66  87  65  90  67 /  30  30  40  10  10
LIPSCOMB TX                67  89  67  91  71 /  20  30  30  20  20
PAMPA TX                   67  87  65  89  68 /  30  30  30  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                69  90  67  91  70 /  30  30  30  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              71  91  69  93  72 /  30  30  30  20  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/06







000
FXUS64 KAMA 021747
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1247 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...A DIFFUSE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS
LIGHT...GENERALLY AOB 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST DEPENDING ON THE SITE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WILL CARRY A VCTS MENTION
AT KDHT AND KGUY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHERE CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE HIGHER. WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF KAMA FOR
NOW...AS TIMING LOOKS TO BE LATER /AFTER 00Z/ AND CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE NEAR THE TERMINAL IS CURRENTLY A BIT TOO LOW FOR A
MENTION. OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

UPDATE...
ADJUSTED PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING TO MATCH UP WITH
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. PRIMARY MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NE...WITH A WEAKER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHWEST
PANHANDLES. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. BETTER COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING WEAKER SHORTWAVE...WHILE THE
STRONGER FORCING FROM THE PRIMARY WAVE CURRENTLY OVER NE FOCUSES
MAINLY EAST OF THE PANHANDLES. A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY DRAPED
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA...BUT HOW MUCH DEVELOPMENT WE SEE ALONG
IT THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN GIVEN ITS RATHER
DIFFUSE NATURE. BASED ON THE STRONGER FORCING ALOFT WITH THE PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE FOCUSING JUST EAST OF THE CWA AND CURRENT CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...THINK THE MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER RISK WILL LIKELY MATERIALIZE JUST EAST OF THE PANHANDLES
ACROSS THE BODY OF OK WHERE LIMITED CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO
ALREADY REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S /VERSUS CURRENT UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S ACROSS THE PANHANDLES/. HOWEVER...WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LOCALLY TO SUPPORT SOME RISK OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN
RECENT DAYS /ON THE ORDER OF 30 KTS/...WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SOME MULTICELLULAR STORM ORGANIZATION. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH ANY STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION. PWATS
AROUND 1.5 INCHES MAY PRODUCE SOME ADDED WATER LOADING...ENHANCING
DOWNDRAFT STRENGTH. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME SEVERE HAIL...BUT SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES/LIMITED CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE AND FAIRLY WARM TEMPS
ALOFT WILL LIMIT THIS THREAT.

ALSO KNOCKED DOWN FORECAST HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BY A FEW DEGREES
DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.

KB/HL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN
TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. RETREATS
WESTWARD SOME TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER TODAY AS THE RIDGE RETREATS AND CLOUDS ENCOMPASS THE AREA. FALLING
HEIGHTS AND WEAK DISTURBANCES COMING OFF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL
PROVIDE SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...AND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WILL PROVIDE SOME SURFACE SUPPORT FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW HELPING TO SPREAD HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE PANHANDLES. THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS THERE AS BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE TO 30 TO NEAR 40KTS...MAINLY THE DIRECTIONAL VARIETY
BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TO BEGIN WITH. MOISTENING AND GENERALLY
WARM PROFILES IN THE -10 TO -20 RANGE INDICATE THAT LARGER HAIL IS
POSSIBLE...BUT APPEARS THAT DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE THE BIGGER HAZARD.
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH SLOWER MOVING STORMS AND
QUITE AN INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY.

THE PANHANDLES REMAIN IN AN AREA OF GENERALLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS
THE RIDGE REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AND A DEEPENING SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. THIS WILL
KEEP A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS DISTURBANCES
ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE AND HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME FOR FRIDAY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AND DECREASE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ON MONDAY...A FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES AND INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TO START THE WEEK.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/06






000
FXUS64 KAMA 021747
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1247 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...A DIFFUSE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS
LIGHT...GENERALLY AOB 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST DEPENDING ON THE SITE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WILL CARRY A VCTS MENTION
AT KDHT AND KGUY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHERE CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE HIGHER. WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF KAMA FOR
NOW...AS TIMING LOOKS TO BE LATER /AFTER 00Z/ AND CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE NEAR THE TERMINAL IS CURRENTLY A BIT TOO LOW FOR A
MENTION. OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

UPDATE...
ADJUSTED PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING TO MATCH UP WITH
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. PRIMARY MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NE...WITH A WEAKER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHWEST
PANHANDLES. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. BETTER COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING WEAKER SHORTWAVE...WHILE THE
STRONGER FORCING FROM THE PRIMARY WAVE CURRENTLY OVER NE FOCUSES
MAINLY EAST OF THE PANHANDLES. A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY DRAPED
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA...BUT HOW MUCH DEVELOPMENT WE SEE ALONG
IT THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN GIVEN ITS RATHER
DIFFUSE NATURE. BASED ON THE STRONGER FORCING ALOFT WITH THE PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE FOCUSING JUST EAST OF THE CWA AND CURRENT CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...THINK THE MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER RISK WILL LIKELY MATERIALIZE JUST EAST OF THE PANHANDLES
ACROSS THE BODY OF OK WHERE LIMITED CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO
ALREADY REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S /VERSUS CURRENT UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S ACROSS THE PANHANDLES/. HOWEVER...WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LOCALLY TO SUPPORT SOME RISK OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN
RECENT DAYS /ON THE ORDER OF 30 KTS/...WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SOME MULTICELLULAR STORM ORGANIZATION. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH ANY STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION. PWATS
AROUND 1.5 INCHES MAY PRODUCE SOME ADDED WATER LOADING...ENHANCING
DOWNDRAFT STRENGTH. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME SEVERE HAIL...BUT SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES/LIMITED CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE AND FAIRLY WARM TEMPS
ALOFT WILL LIMIT THIS THREAT.

ALSO KNOCKED DOWN FORECAST HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BY A FEW DEGREES
DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.

KB/HL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN
TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. RETREATS
WESTWARD SOME TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER TODAY AS THE RIDGE RETREATS AND CLOUDS ENCOMPASS THE AREA. FALLING
HEIGHTS AND WEAK DISTURBANCES COMING OFF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL
PROVIDE SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...AND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WILL PROVIDE SOME SURFACE SUPPORT FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW HELPING TO SPREAD HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE PANHANDLES. THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS THERE AS BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE TO 30 TO NEAR 40KTS...MAINLY THE DIRECTIONAL VARIETY
BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TO BEGIN WITH. MOISTENING AND GENERALLY
WARM PROFILES IN THE -10 TO -20 RANGE INDICATE THAT LARGER HAIL IS
POSSIBLE...BUT APPEARS THAT DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE THE BIGGER HAZARD.
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH SLOWER MOVING STORMS AND
QUITE AN INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY.

THE PANHANDLES REMAIN IN AN AREA OF GENERALLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS
THE RIDGE REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AND A DEEPENING SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. THIS WILL
KEEP A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS DISTURBANCES
ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE AND HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME FOR FRIDAY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AND DECREASE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ON MONDAY...A FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES AND INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TO START THE WEEK.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/06







000
FXUS64 KAMA 021747
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1247 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...A DIFFUSE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS
LIGHT...GENERALLY AOB 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST DEPENDING ON THE SITE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WILL CARRY A VCTS MENTION
AT KDHT AND KGUY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHERE CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE HIGHER. WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF KAMA FOR
NOW...AS TIMING LOOKS TO BE LATER /AFTER 00Z/ AND CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE NEAR THE TERMINAL IS CURRENTLY A BIT TOO LOW FOR A
MENTION. OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

UPDATE...
ADJUSTED PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING TO MATCH UP WITH
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. PRIMARY MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NE...WITH A WEAKER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHWEST
PANHANDLES. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. BETTER COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING WEAKER SHORTWAVE...WHILE THE
STRONGER FORCING FROM THE PRIMARY WAVE CURRENTLY OVER NE FOCUSES
MAINLY EAST OF THE PANHANDLES. A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY DRAPED
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA...BUT HOW MUCH DEVELOPMENT WE SEE ALONG
IT THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN GIVEN ITS RATHER
DIFFUSE NATURE. BASED ON THE STRONGER FORCING ALOFT WITH THE PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE FOCUSING JUST EAST OF THE CWA AND CURRENT CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...THINK THE MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER RISK WILL LIKELY MATERIALIZE JUST EAST OF THE PANHANDLES
ACROSS THE BODY OF OK WHERE LIMITED CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO
ALREADY REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S /VERSUS CURRENT UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S ACROSS THE PANHANDLES/. HOWEVER...WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LOCALLY TO SUPPORT SOME RISK OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN
RECENT DAYS /ON THE ORDER OF 30 KTS/...WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SOME MULTICELLULAR STORM ORGANIZATION. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH ANY STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION. PWATS
AROUND 1.5 INCHES MAY PRODUCE SOME ADDED WATER LOADING...ENHANCING
DOWNDRAFT STRENGTH. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME SEVERE HAIL...BUT SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES/LIMITED CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE AND FAIRLY WARM TEMPS
ALOFT WILL LIMIT THIS THREAT.

ALSO KNOCKED DOWN FORECAST HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BY A FEW DEGREES
DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.

KB/HL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN
TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. RETREATS
WESTWARD SOME TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER TODAY AS THE RIDGE RETREATS AND CLOUDS ENCOMPASS THE AREA. FALLING
HEIGHTS AND WEAK DISTURBANCES COMING OFF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL
PROVIDE SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...AND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WILL PROVIDE SOME SURFACE SUPPORT FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW HELPING TO SPREAD HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE PANHANDLES. THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS THERE AS BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE TO 30 TO NEAR 40KTS...MAINLY THE DIRECTIONAL VARIETY
BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TO BEGIN WITH. MOISTENING AND GENERALLY
WARM PROFILES IN THE -10 TO -20 RANGE INDICATE THAT LARGER HAIL IS
POSSIBLE...BUT APPEARS THAT DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE THE BIGGER HAZARD.
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH SLOWER MOVING STORMS AND
QUITE AN INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY.

THE PANHANDLES REMAIN IN AN AREA OF GENERALLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS
THE RIDGE REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AND A DEEPENING SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. THIS WILL
KEEP A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS DISTURBANCES
ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE AND HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME FOR FRIDAY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AND DECREASE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ON MONDAY...A FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES AND INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TO START THE WEEK.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/06






000
FXUS64 KAMA 021747
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1247 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...A DIFFUSE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS
LIGHT...GENERALLY AOB 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST DEPENDING ON THE SITE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WILL CARRY A VCTS MENTION
AT KDHT AND KGUY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHERE CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE HIGHER. WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF KAMA FOR
NOW...AS TIMING LOOKS TO BE LATER /AFTER 00Z/ AND CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE NEAR THE TERMINAL IS CURRENTLY A BIT TOO LOW FOR A
MENTION. OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

UPDATE...
ADJUSTED PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING TO MATCH UP WITH
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. PRIMARY MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NE...WITH A WEAKER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHWEST
PANHANDLES. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. BETTER COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING WEAKER SHORTWAVE...WHILE THE
STRONGER FORCING FROM THE PRIMARY WAVE CURRENTLY OVER NE FOCUSES
MAINLY EAST OF THE PANHANDLES. A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY DRAPED
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA...BUT HOW MUCH DEVELOPMENT WE SEE ALONG
IT THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN GIVEN ITS RATHER
DIFFUSE NATURE. BASED ON THE STRONGER FORCING ALOFT WITH THE PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE FOCUSING JUST EAST OF THE CWA AND CURRENT CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...THINK THE MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER RISK WILL LIKELY MATERIALIZE JUST EAST OF THE PANHANDLES
ACROSS THE BODY OF OK WHERE LIMITED CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO
ALREADY REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S /VERSUS CURRENT UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S ACROSS THE PANHANDLES/. HOWEVER...WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LOCALLY TO SUPPORT SOME RISK OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN
RECENT DAYS /ON THE ORDER OF 30 KTS/...WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SOME MULTICELLULAR STORM ORGANIZATION. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH ANY STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION. PWATS
AROUND 1.5 INCHES MAY PRODUCE SOME ADDED WATER LOADING...ENHANCING
DOWNDRAFT STRENGTH. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME SEVERE HAIL...BUT SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES/LIMITED CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE AND FAIRLY WARM TEMPS
ALOFT WILL LIMIT THIS THREAT.

ALSO KNOCKED DOWN FORECAST HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BY A FEW DEGREES
DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.

KB/HL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN
TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. RETREATS
WESTWARD SOME TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER TODAY AS THE RIDGE RETREATS AND CLOUDS ENCOMPASS THE AREA. FALLING
HEIGHTS AND WEAK DISTURBANCES COMING OFF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL
PROVIDE SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...AND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WILL PROVIDE SOME SURFACE SUPPORT FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW HELPING TO SPREAD HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE PANHANDLES. THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS THERE AS BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE TO 30 TO NEAR 40KTS...MAINLY THE DIRECTIONAL VARIETY
BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TO BEGIN WITH. MOISTENING AND GENERALLY
WARM PROFILES IN THE -10 TO -20 RANGE INDICATE THAT LARGER HAIL IS
POSSIBLE...BUT APPEARS THAT DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE THE BIGGER HAZARD.
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH SLOWER MOVING STORMS AND
QUITE AN INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY.

THE PANHANDLES REMAIN IN AN AREA OF GENERALLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS
THE RIDGE REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AND A DEEPENING SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. THIS WILL
KEEP A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS DISTURBANCES
ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE AND HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME FOR FRIDAY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AND DECREASE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ON MONDAY...A FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES AND INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TO START THE WEEK.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/06







000
FXUS64 KAMA 021624 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1124 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING TO MATCH UP WITH
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. PRIMARY MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NE...WITH A WEAKER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHWEST
PANHANDLES. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. BETTER COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING WEAKER SHORTWAVE...WHILE THE
STRONGER FORCING FROM THE PRIMARY WAVE CURRENTLY OVER NE FOCUSES
MAINLY EAST OF THE PANHANDLES. A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY DRAPED
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA...BUT HOW MUCH DEVELOPMENT WE SEE ALONG
IT THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN GIVEN ITS RATHER
DIFFUSE NATURE. BASED ON THE STRONGER FORCING ALOFT WITH THE PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE FOCUSING JUST EAST OF THE CWA AND CURRENT CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...THINK THE MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER RISK WILL LIKELY MATERIALIZE JUST EAST OF THE PANHANDLES
ACROSS THE BODY OF OK WHERE LIMITED CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO
ALREADY REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S /VERSUS CURRENT UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S ACROSS THE PANHANDLES/. HOWEVER...WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LOCALLY TO SUPPORT SOME RISK OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN
RECENT DAYS /ON THE ORDER OF 30 KTS/...WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SOME MULTICELLULAR STORM ORGANIZATION. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH ANY STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION. PWATS
AROUND 1.5 INCHES MAY PRODUCE SOME ADDED WATER LOADING...ENHANCING
DOWNDRAFT STRENGTH. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME SEVERE HAIL...BUT SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES/LIMITED CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE AND FAIRLY WARM TEMPS
ALOFT WILL LIMIT THIS THREAT.

ALSO KNOCKED DOWN FORECAST HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BY A FEW DEGREES
DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.

KB/HL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...ISOLD MORNING TSTMS AROUND KAMA SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE AROUND 14Z. SCT TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OK AND
TX PNHDLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT ALL
TERMINAL SITES BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY
LOSE ITS CHARACTERISTICS LATE IN THIS FCST CYCLE.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN
TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. RETREATS
WESTWARD SOME TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER TODAY AS THE RIDGE RETREATS AND CLOUDS ENCOMPASS THE AREA. FALLING
HEIGHTS AND WEAK DISTURBANCES COMING OFF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL
PROVIDE SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...AND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WILL PROVIDE SOME SURFACE SUPPORT FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW HELPING TO SPREAD HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE PANHANDLES. THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS THERE AS BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE TO 30 TO NEAR 40KTS...MAINLY THE DIRECTIONAL VARIETY
BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TO BEGIN WITH. MOISTENING AND GENERALLY
WARM PROFILES IN THE -10 TO -20 RANGE INDICATE THAT LARGER HAIL IS
POSSIBLE...BUT APPEARS THAT DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE THE BIGGER HAZARD.
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH SLOWER MOVING STORMS AND
QUITE AN INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY.

THE PANHANDLES REMAIN IN AN AREA OF GENERALLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS
THE RIDGE REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AND A DEEPENING SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. THIS WILL
KEEP A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS DISTURBANCES
ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE AND HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME FOR FRIDAY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AND DECREASE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ON MONDAY...A FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES AND INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TO START THE WEEK.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

10/08






000
FXUS64 KAMA 021144 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
644 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...ISOLD MORNING TSTMS AROUND KAMA SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE AROUND 14Z. SCT TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OK AND
TX PNHDLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT ALL
TERMINAL SITES BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY
LOSE ITS CHARACTERISTICS LATE IN THIS FCST CYCLE.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN
TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. RETREATS
WESTWARD SOME TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER TODAY AS THE RIDGE RETREATS AND CLOUDS ENCOMPASS THE AREA. FALLING
HEIGHTS AND WEAK DISTURBANCES COMING OFF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL
PROVIDE SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...AND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WILL PROVIDE SOME SURFACE SUPPORT FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW HELPING TO SPREAD HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE PANHANDLES. THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS THERE AS BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE TO 30 TO NEAR 40KTS...MAINLY THE DIRECTIONAL VARIETY
BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TO BEGIN WITH. MOISTENING AND GENERALLY
WARM PROFILES IN THE -10 TO -20 RANGE INDICATE THAT LARGER HAIL IS
POSSIBLE...BUT APPEARS THAT DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE THE BIGGER HAZARD.
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH SLOWER MOVING STORMS AND
QUITE AN INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY.

THE PANHANDLES REMAIN IN AN AREA OF GENERALLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS
THE RIDGE REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AND A DEEPENING SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. THIS WILL
KEEP A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS DISTURBANCES
ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE AND HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME FOR FRIDAY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AND DECREASE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ON MONDAY...A FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES AND INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TO START THE WEEK.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 021144 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
644 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...ISOLD MORNING TSTMS AROUND KAMA SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE AROUND 14Z. SCT TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OK AND
TX PNHDLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT ALL
TERMINAL SITES BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY
LOSE ITS CHARACTERISTICS LATE IN THIS FCST CYCLE.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN
TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. RETREATS
WESTWARD SOME TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER TODAY AS THE RIDGE RETREATS AND CLOUDS ENCOMPASS THE AREA. FALLING
HEIGHTS AND WEAK DISTURBANCES COMING OFF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL
PROVIDE SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...AND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WILL PROVIDE SOME SURFACE SUPPORT FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW HELPING TO SPREAD HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE PANHANDLES. THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS THERE AS BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE TO 30 TO NEAR 40KTS...MAINLY THE DIRECTIONAL VARIETY
BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TO BEGIN WITH. MOISTENING AND GENERALLY
WARM PROFILES IN THE -10 TO -20 RANGE INDICATE THAT LARGER HAIL IS
POSSIBLE...BUT APPEARS THAT DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE THE BIGGER HAZARD.
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH SLOWER MOVING STORMS AND
QUITE AN INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY.

THE PANHANDLES REMAIN IN AN AREA OF GENERALLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS
THE RIDGE REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AND A DEEPENING SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. THIS WILL
KEEP A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS DISTURBANCES
ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE AND HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME FOR FRIDAY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AND DECREASE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ON MONDAY...A FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES AND INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TO START THE WEEK.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 021144 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
644 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...ISOLD MORNING TSTMS AROUND KAMA SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE AROUND 14Z. SCT TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OK AND
TX PNHDLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT ALL
TERMINAL SITES BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY
LOSE ITS CHARACTERISTICS LATE IN THIS FCST CYCLE.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN
TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. RETREATS
WESTWARD SOME TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER TODAY AS THE RIDGE RETREATS AND CLOUDS ENCOMPASS THE AREA. FALLING
HEIGHTS AND WEAK DISTURBANCES COMING OFF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL
PROVIDE SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...AND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WILL PROVIDE SOME SURFACE SUPPORT FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW HELPING TO SPREAD HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE PANHANDLES. THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS THERE AS BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE TO 30 TO NEAR 40KTS...MAINLY THE DIRECTIONAL VARIETY
BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TO BEGIN WITH. MOISTENING AND GENERALLY
WARM PROFILES IN THE -10 TO -20 RANGE INDICATE THAT LARGER HAIL IS
POSSIBLE...BUT APPEARS THAT DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE THE BIGGER HAZARD.
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH SLOWER MOVING STORMS AND
QUITE AN INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY.

THE PANHANDLES REMAIN IN AN AREA OF GENERALLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS
THE RIDGE REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AND A DEEPENING SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. THIS WILL
KEEP A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS DISTURBANCES
ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE AND HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME FOR FRIDAY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AND DECREASE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ON MONDAY...A FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES AND INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TO START THE WEEK.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 020945
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
445 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN
TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. RETREATS
WESTWARD SOME TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER TODAY AS THE RIDGE RETREATS AND CLOUDS ENCOMPASS THE AREA. FALLING
HEIGHTS AND WEAK DISTURBANCES COMING OFF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL
PROVIDE SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...AND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WILL PROVIDE SOME SURFACE SUPPORT FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW HELPING TO SPREAD HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE PANHANDLES. THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS THERE AS BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE TO 30 TO NEAR 40KTS...MAINLY THE DIRECTIONAL VARIETY
BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TO BEGIN WITH. MOISTENING AND GENERALLY
WARM PROFILES IN THE -10 TO -20 RANGE INDICATE THAT LARGER HAIL IS
POSSIBLE...BUT APPEARS THAT DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE THE BIGGER HAZARD.
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH SLOWER MOVING STORMS AND
QUITE AN INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY.

THE PANHANDLES REMAIN IN AN AREA OF GENERALLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS
THE RIDGE REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AND A DEEPENING SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. THIS WILL
KEEP A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS DISTURBANCES
ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE AND HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME FOR FRIDAY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AND DECREASE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ON MONDAY...A FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES AND INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TO START THE WEEK.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                88  66  85  65  90 /  40  50  40  30  20
BEAVER OK                  90  67  88  66  93 /  40  40  30  20  10
BOISE CITY OK              87  62  85  62  92 /  40  50  40  30  10
BORGER TX                  90  69  88  68  93 /  40  50  30  30  20
BOYS RANCH TX              90  68  88  67  93 /  40  50  40  30  10
CANYON TX                  90  66  86  64  90 /  40  40  40  30  10
CLARENDON TX               91  67  86  67  91 /  30  40  30  30  20
DALHART TX                 89  64  88  63  92 /  40  50  40  30  10
GUYMON OK                  89  65  88  66  93 /  40  50  30  30  10
HEREFORD TX                89  67  86  65  91 /  40  40  50  30  10
LIPSCOMB TX                91  66  89  66  91 /  40  40  30  30  20
PAMPA TX                   87  66  85  64  89 /  40  40  30  30  20
SHAMROCK TX                91  67  88  67  92 /  30  40  30  40  20
WELLINGTON TX              92  70  89  69  93 /  30  40  30  30  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

02/18






000
FXUS64 KAMA 020945
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
445 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN
TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. RETREATS
WESTWARD SOME TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER TODAY AS THE RIDGE RETREATS AND CLOUDS ENCOMPASS THE AREA. FALLING
HEIGHTS AND WEAK DISTURBANCES COMING OFF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL
PROVIDE SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...AND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WILL PROVIDE SOME SURFACE SUPPORT FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW HELPING TO SPREAD HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE PANHANDLES. THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS THERE AS BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE TO 30 TO NEAR 40KTS...MAINLY THE DIRECTIONAL VARIETY
BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TO BEGIN WITH. MOISTENING AND GENERALLY
WARM PROFILES IN THE -10 TO -20 RANGE INDICATE THAT LARGER HAIL IS
POSSIBLE...BUT APPEARS THAT DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE THE BIGGER HAZARD.
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH SLOWER MOVING STORMS AND
QUITE AN INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY.

THE PANHANDLES REMAIN IN AN AREA OF GENERALLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS
THE RIDGE REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AND A DEEPENING SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. THIS WILL
KEEP A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS DISTURBANCES
ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE AND HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME FOR FRIDAY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AND DECREASE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ON MONDAY...A FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES AND INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TO START THE WEEK.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                88  66  85  65  90 /  40  50  40  30  20
BEAVER OK                  90  67  88  66  93 /  40  40  30  20  10
BOISE CITY OK              87  62  85  62  92 /  40  50  40  30  10
BORGER TX                  90  69  88  68  93 /  40  50  30  30  20
BOYS RANCH TX              90  68  88  67  93 /  40  50  40  30  10
CANYON TX                  90  66  86  64  90 /  40  40  40  30  10
CLARENDON TX               91  67  86  67  91 /  30  40  30  30  20
DALHART TX                 89  64  88  63  92 /  40  50  40  30  10
GUYMON OK                  89  65  88  66  93 /  40  50  30  30  10
HEREFORD TX                89  67  86  65  91 /  40  40  50  30  10
LIPSCOMB TX                91  66  89  66  91 /  40  40  30  30  20
PAMPA TX                   87  66  85  64  89 /  40  40  30  30  20
SHAMROCK TX                91  67  88  67  92 /  30  40  30  40  20
WELLINGTON TX              92  70  89  69  93 /  30  40  30  30  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

02/18






000
FXUS64 KAMA 020945
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
445 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN
TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. RETREATS
WESTWARD SOME TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER TODAY AS THE RIDGE RETREATS AND CLOUDS ENCOMPASS THE AREA. FALLING
HEIGHTS AND WEAK DISTURBANCES COMING OFF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL
PROVIDE SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...AND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WILL PROVIDE SOME SURFACE SUPPORT FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW HELPING TO SPREAD HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE PANHANDLES. THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS THERE AS BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE TO 30 TO NEAR 40KTS...MAINLY THE DIRECTIONAL VARIETY
BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TO BEGIN WITH. MOISTENING AND GENERALLY
WARM PROFILES IN THE -10 TO -20 RANGE INDICATE THAT LARGER HAIL IS
POSSIBLE...BUT APPEARS THAT DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE THE BIGGER HAZARD.
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH SLOWER MOVING STORMS AND
QUITE AN INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY.

THE PANHANDLES REMAIN IN AN AREA OF GENERALLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS
THE RIDGE REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AND A DEEPENING SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. THIS WILL
KEEP A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS DISTURBANCES
ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE AND HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME FOR FRIDAY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AND DECREASE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ON MONDAY...A FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES AND INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TO START THE WEEK.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                88  66  85  65  90 /  40  50  40  30  20
BEAVER OK                  90  67  88  66  93 /  40  40  30  20  10
BOISE CITY OK              87  62  85  62  92 /  40  50  40  30  10
BORGER TX                  90  69  88  68  93 /  40  50  30  30  20
BOYS RANCH TX              90  68  88  67  93 /  40  50  40  30  10
CANYON TX                  90  66  86  64  90 /  40  40  40  30  10
CLARENDON TX               91  67  86  67  91 /  30  40  30  30  20
DALHART TX                 89  64  88  63  92 /  40  50  40  30  10
GUYMON OK                  89  65  88  66  93 /  40  50  30  30  10
HEREFORD TX                89  67  86  65  91 /  40  40  50  30  10
LIPSCOMB TX                91  66  89  66  91 /  40  40  30  30  20
PAMPA TX                   87  66  85  64  89 /  40  40  30  30  20
SHAMROCK TX                91  67  88  67  92 /  30  40  30  40  20
WELLINGTON TX              92  70  89  69  93 /  30  40  30  30  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

02/18







000
FXUS64 KAMA 020334
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1034 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE FIRST ROUND WILL BE WITH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE
PANHANDLES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS LINE WILL REACH KGUY AND KDHT
AROUND THE SAME TIME...06Z.. WITH KAMA LAGGING UNTIL 07Z TO 08Z. AS
THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH A BRIEF WIND GUST UP TO 35 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. BRIEF MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH...BUT
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OTHERWISE. BEHIND THE LINE SURFACE
WINDS WILL DROP BACK TO 10KT OR LESS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TOMORROW WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH WHILE REMAINING
LIGHT WITH A FEW GUSTS POSSIBLE AT KDHT. DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
THE TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CONVECTION FREE...BUT AS 00Z
APPROACHES THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE RISE AGAIN. HAVE
INSERTED VICINITY SHOWERS IN PREVAILING CONDITIONS...BUT EXPECT
FUTURE TAF CYCLES TO NARROW DOWN THE WINDOW FOR CHANCES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

AVIATION...

00Z ISSUANCE...CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AT ALL SITES BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR THE PERIOD. HAVE TIMED OUT THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
TO START AROUND 14Z...18Z AND 19Z GOING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LATER
ISSUANCES WILL NEED TO FINE TUNE THE TIMING THOUGH FOR ON STATION.
WINDS AT KAMA VEER FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY. KDHT HAS EASTERLY
WINDS RIGHT NOW BUT THEY WILL BACK OVER THE EVENING THEN VEER TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY 18Z AND BACK AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. WINDS AT KGUY ARE
NORTHERLY AND WILL BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY 14Z THEN SWING TO
SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER THE RAIN ENDS BY 18Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LITE EXCEPT FOR AT KDHT WHERE SOME GUSTS UP TO 20KTS MAY OCCUR AFTER 18Z.

BEAT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
WEAK S/WV...STRONG HEATING AND A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE
MINIMAL CHCS FOR CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING MAINLY ACROSS
NW ZONES WHERE ACTIVITY OFF NM MOUNTAINS HAS A LOW POTENTIAL TO ENTER
AREA. OVERALL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT
THIS POTENTIAL WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN MID-UPR RIDGING STILL IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION AND GENERALLY HAVE KEPT POPS RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. THE HIGH CENTER AND RIDGE AXIS WILL RETREAT WEST-
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS NM. MEANWHILE A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY
WILL POOL AND DEEPEN MOISTURE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THIS WILL
PROVIDE INCREASING CHCS FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY. WHILE WIND
SPEEDS THROUGH THE COLUMN ARE WEAK...THERE IS SOME GOOD VEERING IN
THE PROFILE AND MODELS SHOW DEEP LAYER SHEER OF 30-40 ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH SB CAPE VALUES REACHING 2000-3000 J/KG
(PER NAM12) SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE AREA AND
SPC HAS MOST OF THE CWA INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA. WEAKER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE SUGGESTS WIND AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS ALTHOUGH
SOME HAIL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THURSDAY DUE TO
RETREATING RIDGE AND ABUNDANT CIRRUS DECK FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA.

GITTINGER

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
AND FOCUSING SURFACE BOUNDARIES. THE PANHANDLES REMAIN IN THAT
IN BETWEEN AREA WITH AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND A
TROUGH TO OUR EAST. THE BEST WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
TIME FRAME. IN BOTH CASES A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE
DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AND THE PANHANDLES ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST FLOW AND SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGHINESS TO FOCUS
CONVECTION DURING THOSE TIME FRAMES. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED FOR THE
SEASON...THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WOULD
BE THE MAJOR THREAT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER PLEASANT AND NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS AS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER HELP TO KEEP
SUMMER TIME TEMPERATURES AT BAY. SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK TO BE THE
DRIEST AND WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD ON THAT DAY.

GARCIA

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

16/14






000
FXUS64 KAMA 020334
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1034 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE FIRST ROUND WILL BE WITH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE
PANHANDLES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS LINE WILL REACH KGUY AND KDHT
AROUND THE SAME TIME...06Z.. WITH KAMA LAGGING UNTIL 07Z TO 08Z. AS
THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH A BRIEF WIND GUST UP TO 35 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. BRIEF MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH...BUT
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OTHERWISE. BEHIND THE LINE SURFACE
WINDS WILL DROP BACK TO 10KT OR LESS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TOMORROW WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH WHILE REMAINING
LIGHT WITH A FEW GUSTS POSSIBLE AT KDHT. DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
THE TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CONVECTION FREE...BUT AS 00Z
APPROACHES THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE RISE AGAIN. HAVE
INSERTED VICINITY SHOWERS IN PREVAILING CONDITIONS...BUT EXPECT
FUTURE TAF CYCLES TO NARROW DOWN THE WINDOW FOR CHANCES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

AVIATION...

00Z ISSUANCE...CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AT ALL SITES BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR THE PERIOD. HAVE TIMED OUT THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
TO START AROUND 14Z...18Z AND 19Z GOING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LATER
ISSUANCES WILL NEED TO FINE TUNE THE TIMING THOUGH FOR ON STATION.
WINDS AT KAMA VEER FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY. KDHT HAS EASTERLY
WINDS RIGHT NOW BUT THEY WILL BACK OVER THE EVENING THEN VEER TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY 18Z AND BACK AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. WINDS AT KGUY ARE
NORTHERLY AND WILL BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY 14Z THEN SWING TO
SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER THE RAIN ENDS BY 18Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LITE EXCEPT FOR AT KDHT WHERE SOME GUSTS UP TO 20KTS MAY OCCUR AFTER 18Z.

BEAT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
WEAK S/WV...STRONG HEATING AND A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE
MINIMAL CHCS FOR CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING MAINLY ACROSS
NW ZONES WHERE ACTIVITY OFF NM MOUNTAINS HAS A LOW POTENTIAL TO ENTER
AREA. OVERALL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT
THIS POTENTIAL WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN MID-UPR RIDGING STILL IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION AND GENERALLY HAVE KEPT POPS RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. THE HIGH CENTER AND RIDGE AXIS WILL RETREAT WEST-
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS NM. MEANWHILE A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY
WILL POOL AND DEEPEN MOISTURE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THIS WILL
PROVIDE INCREASING CHCS FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY. WHILE WIND
SPEEDS THROUGH THE COLUMN ARE WEAK...THERE IS SOME GOOD VEERING IN
THE PROFILE AND MODELS SHOW DEEP LAYER SHEER OF 30-40 ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH SB CAPE VALUES REACHING 2000-3000 J/KG
(PER NAM12) SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE AREA AND
SPC HAS MOST OF THE CWA INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA. WEAKER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE SUGGESTS WIND AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS ALTHOUGH
SOME HAIL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THURSDAY DUE TO
RETREATING RIDGE AND ABUNDANT CIRRUS DECK FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA.

GITTINGER

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
AND FOCUSING SURFACE BOUNDARIES. THE PANHANDLES REMAIN IN THAT
IN BETWEEN AREA WITH AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND A
TROUGH TO OUR EAST. THE BEST WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
TIME FRAME. IN BOTH CASES A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE
DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AND THE PANHANDLES ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST FLOW AND SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGHINESS TO FOCUS
CONVECTION DURING THOSE TIME FRAMES. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED FOR THE
SEASON...THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WOULD
BE THE MAJOR THREAT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER PLEASANT AND NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS AS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER HELP TO KEEP
SUMMER TIME TEMPERATURES AT BAY. SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK TO BE THE
DRIEST AND WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD ON THAT DAY.

GARCIA

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

16/14







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