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000
FXUS64 KAMA 310339
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1039 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
NORTHEASTERLY TO NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND A COLD
FRONT TODAY WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE THREE TAF SITES. MVFR TO
IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 14Z TO 16Z
THURSDAY...AND THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z THURSDAY.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z
THURSDAY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME PLUS
THE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS SHOULD HELP TO MITIGATE FOG
DEVELOPMENT. ALSO CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES OR
DRIZZLE THROUGH 14Z THURSDAY BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION.
NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS SHOULD DIMINISH TO 5 TO 15
KNOTS BY 08Z TO 10Z THURSDAY AND THEN VEERING AROUND TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST BY 20Z THURSDAY TO 00Z FRIDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...EXTENDED PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW CLOUDS HAVE INVADED THE PANHANDLES THIS
AFTERNOON AND LOOK TO STICK AROUND. COULD RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE THEY DIP BACK INTO MVFR OR LOWER OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO IMPACT KDHT
BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WILL HAVE TO WATCH AND
AMEND AS NEEDED OVERNIGHT. THINK THERE WILL MOSTLY BE LOW CLOUDS, BUT
BR IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. SHOULD COME BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

MOULTON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
IT LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY QUIET NEXT 7 DAYS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER TODAY HAS
BROUGHT CONSIDERABLE NORTH WINDS...LOW CLOUDS AND NOTABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA
SEEING TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AT 4 PM ON A JULY AFTERNOON. THE
AIRMASS APPEARS TO BE TOO STABLE TO SEE ANY FURTHER CONVECTION WORK
ITS WAY INTO THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING...SO HAVE ONLY CARRIED VERY
SLIGHT POPS WHERE INSTABILITY GREATEST THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR MOUNTAIN CONVECTION TO MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE
PANHANDLES EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY. THEN THE RIDGE
FLATTENS OUT AND SPREADS EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE TAIL END OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...FORECAST MODELS HINT AT A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT
AT RAIN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS.

NF

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11







000
FXUS64 KAMA 310339
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1039 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
NORTHEASTERLY TO NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND A COLD
FRONT TODAY WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE THREE TAF SITES. MVFR TO
IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 14Z TO 16Z
THURSDAY...AND THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z THURSDAY.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z
THURSDAY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME PLUS
THE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS SHOULD HELP TO MITIGATE FOG
DEVELOPMENT. ALSO CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES OR
DRIZZLE THROUGH 14Z THURSDAY BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION.
NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS SHOULD DIMINISH TO 5 TO 15
KNOTS BY 08Z TO 10Z THURSDAY AND THEN VEERING AROUND TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST BY 20Z THURSDAY TO 00Z FRIDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...EXTENDED PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW CLOUDS HAVE INVADED THE PANHANDLES THIS
AFTERNOON AND LOOK TO STICK AROUND. COULD RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE THEY DIP BACK INTO MVFR OR LOWER OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO IMPACT KDHT
BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WILL HAVE TO WATCH AND
AMEND AS NEEDED OVERNIGHT. THINK THERE WILL MOSTLY BE LOW CLOUDS, BUT
BR IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. SHOULD COME BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

MOULTON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
IT LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY QUIET NEXT 7 DAYS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER TODAY HAS
BROUGHT CONSIDERABLE NORTH WINDS...LOW CLOUDS AND NOTABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA
SEEING TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AT 4 PM ON A JULY AFTERNOON. THE
AIRMASS APPEARS TO BE TOO STABLE TO SEE ANY FURTHER CONVECTION WORK
ITS WAY INTO THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING...SO HAVE ONLY CARRIED VERY
SLIGHT POPS WHERE INSTABILITY GREATEST THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR MOUNTAIN CONVECTION TO MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE
PANHANDLES EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY. THEN THE RIDGE
FLATTENS OUT AND SPREADS EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE TAIL END OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...FORECAST MODELS HINT AT A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT
AT RAIN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS.

NF

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11






000
FXUS64 KAMA 302317 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
617 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...EXTENDED PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW CLOUDS HAVE INVADED THE PANHANDLES THIS
AFTERNOON AND LOOK TO STICK AROUND. COULD RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE THEY DIP BACK INTO MVFR OR LOWER OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO IMPACT KDHT
BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WILL HAVE TO WATCH AND
AMEND AS NEEDED OVERNIGHT. THINK THERE WILL MOSTLY BE LOW CLOUDS, BUT
BR IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. SHOULD COME BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

MOULTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
IT LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY QUIET NEXT 7 DAYS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER TODAY HAS
BROUGHT CONSIDERABLE NORTH WINDS...LOW CLOUDS AND NOTABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA
SEEING TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AT 4 PM ON A JULY AFTERNOON. THE
AIRMASS APPEARS TO BE TOO STABLE TO SEE ANY FURTHER CONVECTION WORK
ITS WAY INTO THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING...SO HAVE ONLY CARRIED VERY
SLIGHT POPS WHERE INSTABILITY GREATEST THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR MOUNTAIN CONVECTION TO MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE
PANHANDLES EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY. THEN THE RIDGE
FLATTENS OUT AND SPREADS EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE TAIL END OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...FORECAST MODELS HINT AT A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT
AT RAIN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS.

NF

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

19/11







000
FXUS64 KAMA 302317 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
617 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...EXTENDED PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW CLOUDS HAVE INVADED THE PANHANDLES THIS
AFTERNOON AND LOOK TO STICK AROUND. COULD RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE THEY DIP BACK INTO MVFR OR LOWER OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO IMPACT KDHT
BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WILL HAVE TO WATCH AND
AMEND AS NEEDED OVERNIGHT. THINK THERE WILL MOSTLY BE LOW CLOUDS, BUT
BR IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. SHOULD COME BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

MOULTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
IT LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY QUIET NEXT 7 DAYS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER TODAY HAS
BROUGHT CONSIDERABLE NORTH WINDS...LOW CLOUDS AND NOTABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA
SEEING TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AT 4 PM ON A JULY AFTERNOON. THE
AIRMASS APPEARS TO BE TOO STABLE TO SEE ANY FURTHER CONVECTION WORK
ITS WAY INTO THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING...SO HAVE ONLY CARRIED VERY
SLIGHT POPS WHERE INSTABILITY GREATEST THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR MOUNTAIN CONVECTION TO MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE
PANHANDLES EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY. THEN THE RIDGE
FLATTENS OUT AND SPREADS EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE TAIL END OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...FORECAST MODELS HINT AT A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT
AT RAIN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS.

NF

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

19/11






000
FXUS64 KAMA 302107
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
407 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
IT LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY QUIET NEXT 7 DAYS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER TODAY HAS
BROUGHT CONSIDERABLE NORTH WINDS...LOW CLOUDS AND NOTABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA
SEEING TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AT 4 PM ON A JULY AFTERNOON. THE
AIRMASS APPEARS TO BE TOO STABLE TO SEE ANY FURTHER CONVECTION WORK
ITS WAY INTO THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING...SO HAVE ONLY CARRIED VERY
SLIGHT POPS WHERE INSTABILITY GREATEST THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR MOUNTAIN CONVECTION TO MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE
PANHANDLES EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY. THEN THE RIDGE
FLATTENS OUT AND SPREADS EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE TAIL END OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...FORECAST MODELS HINT AT A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT
AT RAIN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS.

NF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                59  80  60  82  62 /  10   0  10  10  20
BEAVER OK                  60  83  61  86  62 /  10   5   5   5  10
BOISE CITY OK              58  79  60  81  60 /  20  10  20  20  20
BORGER TX                  62  83  63  85  65 /  10   0  10  10  10
BOYS RANCH TX              61  83  61  83  62 /  10   5  20  10  20
CANYON TX                  60  80  60  82  62 /  10   5  10  10  20
CLARENDON TX               61  81  62  85  64 /  20   0  10  10  10
DALHART TX                 59  80  59  81  61 /  10  10  20  20  20
GUYMON OK                  60  82  62  86  62 /  10   5  10  10  10
HEREFORD TX                60  79  60  81  61 /  10   5  20  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                60  82  61  86  63 /  20   5   5   5  10
PAMPA TX                   59  81  61  84  63 /  10   0  10   5  10
SHAMROCK TX                62  82  62  86  64 /  20   0   5   5  10
WELLINGTON TX              63  83  63  87  65 /  20   0   5   5  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

09/06






000
FXUS64 KAMA 302107
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
407 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
IT LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY QUIET NEXT 7 DAYS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER TODAY HAS
BROUGHT CONSIDERABLE NORTH WINDS...LOW CLOUDS AND NOTABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA
SEEING TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AT 4 PM ON A JULY AFTERNOON. THE
AIRMASS APPEARS TO BE TOO STABLE TO SEE ANY FURTHER CONVECTION WORK
ITS WAY INTO THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING...SO HAVE ONLY CARRIED VERY
SLIGHT POPS WHERE INSTABILITY GREATEST THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR MOUNTAIN CONVECTION TO MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE
PANHANDLES EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY. THEN THE RIDGE
FLATTENS OUT AND SPREADS EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE TAIL END OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...FORECAST MODELS HINT AT A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT
AT RAIN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS.

NF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                59  80  60  82  62 /  10   0  10  10  20
BEAVER OK                  60  83  61  86  62 /  10   5   5   5  10
BOISE CITY OK              58  79  60  81  60 /  20  10  20  20  20
BORGER TX                  62  83  63  85  65 /  10   0  10  10  10
BOYS RANCH TX              61  83  61  83  62 /  10   5  20  10  20
CANYON TX                  60  80  60  82  62 /  10   5  10  10  20
CLARENDON TX               61  81  62  85  64 /  20   0  10  10  10
DALHART TX                 59  80  59  81  61 /  10  10  20  20  20
GUYMON OK                  60  82  62  86  62 /  10   5  10  10  10
HEREFORD TX                60  79  60  81  61 /  10   5  20  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                60  82  61  86  63 /  20   5   5   5  10
PAMPA TX                   59  81  61  84  63 /  10   0  10   5  10
SHAMROCK TX                62  82  62  86  64 /  20   0   5   5  10
WELLINGTON TX              63  83  63  87  65 /  20   0   5   5  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

09/06







000
FXUS64 KAMA 301818
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
118 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS

LOW CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN PROBLEM THIS TAF CYCLE. TEMPO VFR/MVFR
CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND WE MAY SEE A BRIEF VFR
PERIOD BEFORE A RETURN TO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
COULD DEFINITELY SEE IFR TO POSSIBLY LIFR CIGS TOMORROW MORNING AND
SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

SIMPSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

UPDATE...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A NOTABLE SHORTWAVE THROUGH HAS PROGRESSED OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS
THIS MORNING. RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST MOST OF THE FORCING/ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS SHIFTING EAST OF THE PANHANDLES...AND
INCREASING SIGNALS FOR MID LEVEL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE ARE INDICATED.

ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
OVERALL TRENDS SUPPORT DECREASING POPS/QPF AND A REDUCED RISK OF
HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING.

A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR INITIATION OF ISOLATED STRONGER CONVECTION
MAY PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...
WHERE 1300 J/KG SBCAPE MAY LINGER. HOWEVER MOST INDICATIONS TREND
TOWARD A REDUCED THREAT.

LINDLEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

AVIATION...
MOST CONVECTIVE ECHOES HAVE CLEARED ALL OF THE TERMINALS AT THIS
TIME.  RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH
IFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS.  COLD FRONT WILL PASS
NORTHERN TERMINALS AROUND 13Z...REACHING KAMA AROUND 15Z.  SURFACE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHEAST FOLLOWING FRONTAL
PASSAGE.  COULD SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT.  STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...WITH IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED...PRIMARILY AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS LIES WITH ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...AND THE
ATTENDANT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING.

AN MCS CONTINUES TO ROLL EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
BEST ORGANIZATION EXTENDS FROM THE OK PANHANDLE/FAR NORTHERN TX
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEAST CO AND WESTERN KS...WITH MORE SCATTERED
ACTIVITY FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TX PANHANDLE.
FORCING AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN THIS
CONVECTION...WITH LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT
ATTENDANT TO A SOUTHERLY LLJ WHICH HAS STRENGTHENED TO 30-40KT AHEAD
OF THE SHORTWAVE PROVIDING FURTHER SUPPORT. A SURFACE FRONT WAS
DRAPED FROM SOUTHEAST CO ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KS INTO NORTHWEST
OK...WITH A TIGHTENING LOW TO MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE RESULTING IN
PRETTY GOOD LOW TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THIS FORCING IS ACTING ON AMPLE MOISTURE...WITH A COMBINATION
OF MOIST LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE ALOFT HAVING
BUMPED PWATS INTO THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE.

THE MAIN THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING WILL BE THIS
MORNING...WITH THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLES EXPECTED TO SEE THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS /1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE/. THIS ONGOING CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST INTO THE BODY OF OK BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE DECENT FORWARD
PROPAGATION WILL LIKELY KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT PRETTY ISOLATED
FOR OUR AREA DESPITE SOME GOOD RAIN RATES WITH THE MORE INTENSE
CONVECTION. DEBATED SHAVING OFF SOME COUNTIES FROM THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT WITH A CONVECTIVE LINE CURRENTLY
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS DALLAM COUNTY...WILL LEAVE IT AS IS FOR NOW.
HOWEVER...AT LEAST SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
ABLE TO BE CANCELLED EARLY. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THIS INITIAL WAVE /ALTHOUGH MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE/
GIVEN CONTINUED MID-LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL
FORCING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.
HOWEVER...RAINFALL RATES/AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS MLCAPES MAY INCREASE TO
JUST OVER 1000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASES TO 30-35 KTS. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN TX PANHANDLE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE DECLINE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHEARS OUT. CONVECTION THAT FORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CO/NM LATER TODAY IN POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO PROPAGATE INTO MOST OF THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT GIVEN THE
MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE /DESPITE A CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT/. HOWEVER WILL HANG ONTO SOME LOW POPS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

ASIDE FROM PERHAPS A LINGERING LIGHT SHOWER IN THE FAR SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN CWA THURSDAY MORNING...IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY. A FEW SHOWERS
OR STORMS MAY SNEAK INTO THE FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES THURSDAY NIGHT
ABOARD A CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

THIS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THUS WILL
MAINTAIN SOME PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES THROUGH
THIS TIME. HOWEVER BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...THE FLOW TURNS
MORE NORTHERLY AS THE UPPER RIDGE EDGES EASTWARD...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
ANY CONVECTION TO OUR WEST. PRECIP CHANCES MAY RETURN TOWARD
MID NEXT WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...IT WILL REMAIN COOL THE NEXT FEW DAYS
GIVEN THE CLOUDS...RAIN...AND REINFORCING FRONTAL SURGE. WE/LL START
TO SEE A SLOW WARM-UP LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

09/06






000
FXUS64 KAMA 301818
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
118 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS

LOW CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN PROBLEM THIS TAF CYCLE. TEMPO VFR/MVFR
CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND WE MAY SEE A BRIEF VFR
PERIOD BEFORE A RETURN TO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
COULD DEFINITELY SEE IFR TO POSSIBLY LIFR CIGS TOMORROW MORNING AND
SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

SIMPSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

UPDATE...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A NOTABLE SHORTWAVE THROUGH HAS PROGRESSED OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS
THIS MORNING. RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST MOST OF THE FORCING/ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS SHIFTING EAST OF THE PANHANDLES...AND
INCREASING SIGNALS FOR MID LEVEL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE ARE INDICATED.

ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
OVERALL TRENDS SUPPORT DECREASING POPS/QPF AND A REDUCED RISK OF
HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING.

A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR INITIATION OF ISOLATED STRONGER CONVECTION
MAY PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...
WHERE 1300 J/KG SBCAPE MAY LINGER. HOWEVER MOST INDICATIONS TREND
TOWARD A REDUCED THREAT.

LINDLEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

AVIATION...
MOST CONVECTIVE ECHOES HAVE CLEARED ALL OF THE TERMINALS AT THIS
TIME.  RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH
IFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS.  COLD FRONT WILL PASS
NORTHERN TERMINALS AROUND 13Z...REACHING KAMA AROUND 15Z.  SURFACE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHEAST FOLLOWING FRONTAL
PASSAGE.  COULD SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT.  STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...WITH IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED...PRIMARILY AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS LIES WITH ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...AND THE
ATTENDANT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING.

AN MCS CONTINUES TO ROLL EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
BEST ORGANIZATION EXTENDS FROM THE OK PANHANDLE/FAR NORTHERN TX
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEAST CO AND WESTERN KS...WITH MORE SCATTERED
ACTIVITY FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TX PANHANDLE.
FORCING AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN THIS
CONVECTION...WITH LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT
ATTENDANT TO A SOUTHERLY LLJ WHICH HAS STRENGTHENED TO 30-40KT AHEAD
OF THE SHORTWAVE PROVIDING FURTHER SUPPORT. A SURFACE FRONT WAS
DRAPED FROM SOUTHEAST CO ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KS INTO NORTHWEST
OK...WITH A TIGHTENING LOW TO MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE RESULTING IN
PRETTY GOOD LOW TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THIS FORCING IS ACTING ON AMPLE MOISTURE...WITH A COMBINATION
OF MOIST LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE ALOFT HAVING
BUMPED PWATS INTO THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE.

THE MAIN THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING WILL BE THIS
MORNING...WITH THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLES EXPECTED TO SEE THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS /1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE/. THIS ONGOING CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST INTO THE BODY OF OK BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE DECENT FORWARD
PROPAGATION WILL LIKELY KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT PRETTY ISOLATED
FOR OUR AREA DESPITE SOME GOOD RAIN RATES WITH THE MORE INTENSE
CONVECTION. DEBATED SHAVING OFF SOME COUNTIES FROM THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT WITH A CONVECTIVE LINE CURRENTLY
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS DALLAM COUNTY...WILL LEAVE IT AS IS FOR NOW.
HOWEVER...AT LEAST SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
ABLE TO BE CANCELLED EARLY. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THIS INITIAL WAVE /ALTHOUGH MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE/
GIVEN CONTINUED MID-LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL
FORCING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.
HOWEVER...RAINFALL RATES/AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS MLCAPES MAY INCREASE TO
JUST OVER 1000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASES TO 30-35 KTS. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN TX PANHANDLE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE DECLINE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHEARS OUT. CONVECTION THAT FORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CO/NM LATER TODAY IN POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO PROPAGATE INTO MOST OF THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT GIVEN THE
MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE /DESPITE A CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT/. HOWEVER WILL HANG ONTO SOME LOW POPS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

ASIDE FROM PERHAPS A LINGERING LIGHT SHOWER IN THE FAR SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN CWA THURSDAY MORNING...IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY. A FEW SHOWERS
OR STORMS MAY SNEAK INTO THE FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES THURSDAY NIGHT
ABOARD A CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

THIS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THUS WILL
MAINTAIN SOME PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES THROUGH
THIS TIME. HOWEVER BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...THE FLOW TURNS
MORE NORTHERLY AS THE UPPER RIDGE EDGES EASTWARD...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
ANY CONVECTION TO OUR WEST. PRECIP CHANCES MAY RETURN TOWARD
MID NEXT WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...IT WILL REMAIN COOL THE NEXT FEW DAYS
GIVEN THE CLOUDS...RAIN...AND REINFORCING FRONTAL SURGE. WE/LL START
TO SEE A SLOW WARM-UP LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

09/06







000
FXUS64 KAMA 301630
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1130 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A NOTABLE SHORTWAVE THROUGH HAS PROGRESSED OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS
THIS MORNING. RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST MOST OF THE FORCING/ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS SHIFTING EAST OF THE PANHANDLES...AND
INCREASING SIGNALS FOR MID LEVEL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE ARE INDICATED.

ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
OVERALL TRENDS SUPPORT DECREASING POPS/QPF AND A REDUCED RISK OF
HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING.

A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR INITIATION OF ISOLATED STRONGER CONVECTION
MAY PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...
WHERE 1300 J/KG SBCAPE MAY LINGER. HOWEVER MOST INDICATIONS TREND
TOWARD A REDUCED THREAT.

LINDLEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

AVIATION...
MOST CONVECTIVE ECHOES HAVE CLEARED ALL OF THE TERMINALS AT THIS
TIME.  RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH
IFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS.  COLD FRONT WILL PASS
NORTHERN TERMINALS AROUND 13Z...REACHING KAMA AROUND 15Z.  SURFACE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHEAST FOLLOWING FRONTAL
PASSAGE.  COULD SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT.  STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...WITH IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED...PRIMARILY AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS LIES WITH ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...AND THE
ATTENDANT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING.

AN MCS CONTINUES TO ROLL EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
BEST ORGANIZATION EXTENDS FROM THE OK PANHANDLE/FAR NORTHERN TX
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEAST CO AND WESTERN KS...WITH MORE SCATTERED
ACTIVITY FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TX PANHANDLE.
FORCING AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN THIS
CONVECTION...WITH LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT
ATTENDANT TO A SOUTHERLY LLJ WHICH HAS STRENGTHENED TO 30-40KT AHEAD
OF THE SHORTWAVE PROVIDING FURTHER SUPPORT. A SURFACE FRONT WAS
DRAPED FROM SOUTHEAST CO ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KS INTO NORTHWEST
OK...WITH A TIGHTENING LOW TO MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE RESULTING IN
PRETTY GOOD LOW TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THIS FORCING IS ACTING ON AMPLE MOISTURE...WITH A COMBINATION
OF MOIST LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE ALOFT HAVING
BUMPED PWATS INTO THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE.

THE MAIN THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING WILL BE THIS
MORNING...WITH THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLES EXPECTED TO SEE THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS /1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE/. THIS ONGOING CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST INTO THE BODY OF OK BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE DECENT FORWARD
PROPAGATION WILL LIKELY KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT PRETTY ISOLATED
FOR OUR AREA DESPITE SOME GOOD RAIN RATES WITH THE MORE INTENSE
CONVECTION. DEBATED SHAVING OFF SOME COUNTIES FROM THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT WITH A CONVECTIVE LINE CURRENTLY
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS DALLAM COUNTY...WILL LEAVE IT AS IS FOR NOW.
HOWEVER...AT LEAST SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
ABLE TO BE CANCELLED EARLY. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THIS INITIAL WAVE /ALTHOUGH MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE/
GIVEN CONTINUED MID-LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL
FORCING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.
HOWEVER...RAINFALL RATES/AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS MLCAPES MAY INCREASE TO
JUST OVER 1000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASES TO 30-35 KTS. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN TX PANHANDLE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE DECLINE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHEARS OUT. CONVECTION THAT FORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CO/NM LATER TODAY IN POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO PROPAGATE INTO MOST OF THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT GIVEN THE
MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE /DESPITE A CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT/. HOWEVER WILL HANG ONTO SOME LOW POPS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

ASIDE FROM PERHAPS A LINGERING LIGHT SHOWER IN THE FAR SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN CWA THURSDAY MORNING...IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY. A FEW SHOWERS
OR STORMS MAY SNEAK INTO THE FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES THURSDAY NIGHT
ABOARD A CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

THIS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THUS WILL
MAINTAIN SOME PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES THROUGH
THIS TIME. HOWEVER BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...THE FLOW TURNS
MORE NORTHERLY AS THE UPPER RIDGE EDGES EASTWARD...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
ANY CONVECTION TO OUR WEST. PRECIP CHANCES MAY RETURN TOWARD
MID NEXT WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...IT WILL REMAIN COOL THE NEXT FEW DAYS
GIVEN THE CLOUDS...RAIN...AND REINFORCING FRONTAL SURGE. WE/LL START
TO SEE A SLOW WARM-UP LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

10







000
FXUS64 KAMA 301630
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1130 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A NOTABLE SHORTWAVE THROUGH HAS PROGRESSED OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS
THIS MORNING. RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST MOST OF THE FORCING/ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS SHIFTING EAST OF THE PANHANDLES...AND
INCREASING SIGNALS FOR MID LEVEL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE ARE INDICATED.

ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
OVERALL TRENDS SUPPORT DECREASING POPS/QPF AND A REDUCED RISK OF
HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING.

A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR INITIATION OF ISOLATED STRONGER CONVECTION
MAY PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...
WHERE 1300 J/KG SBCAPE MAY LINGER. HOWEVER MOST INDICATIONS TREND
TOWARD A REDUCED THREAT.

LINDLEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

AVIATION...
MOST CONVECTIVE ECHOES HAVE CLEARED ALL OF THE TERMINALS AT THIS
TIME.  RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH
IFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS.  COLD FRONT WILL PASS
NORTHERN TERMINALS AROUND 13Z...REACHING KAMA AROUND 15Z.  SURFACE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHEAST FOLLOWING FRONTAL
PASSAGE.  COULD SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT.  STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...WITH IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED...PRIMARILY AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS LIES WITH ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...AND THE
ATTENDANT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING.

AN MCS CONTINUES TO ROLL EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
BEST ORGANIZATION EXTENDS FROM THE OK PANHANDLE/FAR NORTHERN TX
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEAST CO AND WESTERN KS...WITH MORE SCATTERED
ACTIVITY FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TX PANHANDLE.
FORCING AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN THIS
CONVECTION...WITH LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT
ATTENDANT TO A SOUTHERLY LLJ WHICH HAS STRENGTHENED TO 30-40KT AHEAD
OF THE SHORTWAVE PROVIDING FURTHER SUPPORT. A SURFACE FRONT WAS
DRAPED FROM SOUTHEAST CO ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KS INTO NORTHWEST
OK...WITH A TIGHTENING LOW TO MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE RESULTING IN
PRETTY GOOD LOW TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THIS FORCING IS ACTING ON AMPLE MOISTURE...WITH A COMBINATION
OF MOIST LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE ALOFT HAVING
BUMPED PWATS INTO THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE.

THE MAIN THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING WILL BE THIS
MORNING...WITH THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLES EXPECTED TO SEE THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS /1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE/. THIS ONGOING CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST INTO THE BODY OF OK BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE DECENT FORWARD
PROPAGATION WILL LIKELY KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT PRETTY ISOLATED
FOR OUR AREA DESPITE SOME GOOD RAIN RATES WITH THE MORE INTENSE
CONVECTION. DEBATED SHAVING OFF SOME COUNTIES FROM THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT WITH A CONVECTIVE LINE CURRENTLY
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS DALLAM COUNTY...WILL LEAVE IT AS IS FOR NOW.
HOWEVER...AT LEAST SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
ABLE TO BE CANCELLED EARLY. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THIS INITIAL WAVE /ALTHOUGH MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE/
GIVEN CONTINUED MID-LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL
FORCING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.
HOWEVER...RAINFALL RATES/AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS MLCAPES MAY INCREASE TO
JUST OVER 1000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASES TO 30-35 KTS. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN TX PANHANDLE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE DECLINE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHEARS OUT. CONVECTION THAT FORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CO/NM LATER TODAY IN POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO PROPAGATE INTO MOST OF THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT GIVEN THE
MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE /DESPITE A CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT/. HOWEVER WILL HANG ONTO SOME LOW POPS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

ASIDE FROM PERHAPS A LINGERING LIGHT SHOWER IN THE FAR SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN CWA THURSDAY MORNING...IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY. A FEW SHOWERS
OR STORMS MAY SNEAK INTO THE FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES THURSDAY NIGHT
ABOARD A CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

THIS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THUS WILL
MAINTAIN SOME PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES THROUGH
THIS TIME. HOWEVER BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...THE FLOW TURNS
MORE NORTHERLY AS THE UPPER RIDGE EDGES EASTWARD...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
ANY CONVECTION TO OUR WEST. PRECIP CHANCES MAY RETURN TOWARD
MID NEXT WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...IT WILL REMAIN COOL THE NEXT FEW DAYS
GIVEN THE CLOUDS...RAIN...AND REINFORCING FRONTAL SURGE. WE/LL START
TO SEE A SLOW WARM-UP LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

10






000
FXUS64 KAMA 301140 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
640 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
MOST CONVECTIVE ECHOES HAVE CLEARED ALL OF THE TERMINALS AT THIS
TIME.  RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH
IFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS.  COLD FRONT WILL PASS
NORTHERN TERMINALS AROUND 13Z...REACHING KAMA AROUND 15Z.  SURFACE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHEAST FOLLOWING FRONTAL
PASSAGE.  COULD SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT.  STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...WITH IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED...PRIMARILY AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS LIES WITH ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...AND THE
ATTENDANT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING.

AN MCS CONTINUES TO ROLL EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
BEST ORGANIZATION EXTENDS FROM THE OK PANHANDLE/FAR NORTHERN TX
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEAST CO AND WESTERN KS...WITH MORE SCATTERED
ACTIVITY FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TX PANHANDLE.
FORCING AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN THIS
CONVECTION...WITH LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT
ATTENDANT TO A SOUTHERLY LLJ WHICH HAS STRENGTHENED TO 30-40KT AHEAD
OF THE SHORTWAVE PROVIDING FURTHER SUPPORT. A SURFACE FRONT WAS
DRAPED FROM SOUTHEAST CO ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KS INTO NORTHWEST
OK...WITH A TIGHTENING LOW TO MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE RESULTING IN
PRETTY GOOD LOW TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THIS FORCING IS ACTING ON AMPLE MOISTURE...WITH A COMBINATION
OF MOIST LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE ALOFT HAVING
BUMPED PWATS INTO THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE.

THE MAIN THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING WILL BE THIS
MORNING...WITH THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLES EXPECTED TO SEE THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS /1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE/. THIS ONGOING CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST INTO THE BODY OF OK BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE DECENT FORWARD
PROPAGATION WILL LIKELY KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT PRETTY ISOLATED
FOR OUR AREA DESPITE SOME GOOD RAIN RATES WITH THE MORE INTENSE
CONVECTION. DEBATED SHAVING OFF SOME COUNTIES FROM THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT WITH A CONVECTIVE LINE CURRENTLY
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS DALLAM COUNTY...WILL LEAVE IT AS IS FOR NOW.
HOWEVER...AT LEAST SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
ABLE TO BE CANCELLED EARLY. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THIS INITIAL WAVE /ALTHOUGH MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE/
GIVEN CONTINUED MID-LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL
FORCING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.
HOWEVER...RAINFALL RATES/AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS MLCAPES MAY INCREASE TO
JUST OVER 1000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASES TO 30-35 KTS. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN TX PANHANDLE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE DECLINE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHEARS OUT. CONVECTION THAT FORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CO/NM LATER TODAY IN POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO PROPAGATE INTO MOST OF THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT GIVEN THE
MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE /DESPITE A CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT/. HOWEVER WILL HANG ONTO SOME LOW POPS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

ASIDE FROM PERHAPS A LINGERING LIGHT SHOWER IN THE FAR SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN CWA THURSDAY MORNING...IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY. A FEW SHOWERS
OR STORMS MAY SNEAK INTO THE FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES THURSDAY NIGHT
ABOARD A CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

THIS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THUS WILL
MAINTAIN SOME PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES THROUGH
THIS TIME. HOWEVER BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...THE FLOW TURNS
MORE NORTHERLY AS THE UPPER RIDGE EDGES EASTWARD...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
ANY CONVECTION TO OUR WEST. PRECIP CHANCES MAY RETURN TOWARD
MID NEXT WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...IT WILL REMAIN COOL THE NEXT FEW DAYS
GIVEN THE CLOUDS...RAIN...AND REINFORCING FRONTAL SURGE. WE/LL START
TO SEE A SLOW WARM-UP LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

KB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                80  59  78  60  81 /  40  30  10  10  10
BEAVER OK                  70  61  82  62  85 / 100  30  10  10   5
BOISE CITY OK              72  58  79  60  82 /  50  30  10  20  20
BORGER TX                  79  63  82  64  85 /  50  30  10  10  10
BOYS RANCH TX              82  61  82  63  83 /  30  30  10  10  10
CANYON TX                  83  61  79  60  81 /  40  30  20  10  10
CLARENDON TX               84  62  79  62  83 /  50  40  20   5  10
DALHART TX                 77  58  79  61  82 /  40  30  10  20  20
GUYMON OK                  72  61  82  62  86 /  80  30  10  10  10
HEREFORD TX                86  60  78  60  81 /  30  30  20  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                75  61  81  61  84 /  90  40  10   5   5
PAMPA TX                   76  59  79  60  83 /  60  30  10   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                80  62  81  60  85 /  70  50  10  10   5
WELLINGTON TX              84  64  83  61  86 /  60  50  20  10   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     DALLAM...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...
     LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...SHERMAN.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

08/03







000
FXUS64 KAMA 301140 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
640 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
MOST CONVECTIVE ECHOES HAVE CLEARED ALL OF THE TERMINALS AT THIS
TIME.  RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH
IFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS.  COLD FRONT WILL PASS
NORTHERN TERMINALS AROUND 13Z...REACHING KAMA AROUND 15Z.  SURFACE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHEAST FOLLOWING FRONTAL
PASSAGE.  COULD SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT.  STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...WITH IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED...PRIMARILY AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS LIES WITH ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...AND THE
ATTENDANT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING.

AN MCS CONTINUES TO ROLL EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
BEST ORGANIZATION EXTENDS FROM THE OK PANHANDLE/FAR NORTHERN TX
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEAST CO AND WESTERN KS...WITH MORE SCATTERED
ACTIVITY FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TX PANHANDLE.
FORCING AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN THIS
CONVECTION...WITH LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT
ATTENDANT TO A SOUTHERLY LLJ WHICH HAS STRENGTHENED TO 30-40KT AHEAD
OF THE SHORTWAVE PROVIDING FURTHER SUPPORT. A SURFACE FRONT WAS
DRAPED FROM SOUTHEAST CO ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KS INTO NORTHWEST
OK...WITH A TIGHTENING LOW TO MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE RESULTING IN
PRETTY GOOD LOW TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THIS FORCING IS ACTING ON AMPLE MOISTURE...WITH A COMBINATION
OF MOIST LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE ALOFT HAVING
BUMPED PWATS INTO THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE.

THE MAIN THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING WILL BE THIS
MORNING...WITH THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLES EXPECTED TO SEE THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS /1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE/. THIS ONGOING CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST INTO THE BODY OF OK BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE DECENT FORWARD
PROPAGATION WILL LIKELY KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT PRETTY ISOLATED
FOR OUR AREA DESPITE SOME GOOD RAIN RATES WITH THE MORE INTENSE
CONVECTION. DEBATED SHAVING OFF SOME COUNTIES FROM THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT WITH A CONVECTIVE LINE CURRENTLY
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS DALLAM COUNTY...WILL LEAVE IT AS IS FOR NOW.
HOWEVER...AT LEAST SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
ABLE TO BE CANCELLED EARLY. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THIS INITIAL WAVE /ALTHOUGH MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE/
GIVEN CONTINUED MID-LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL
FORCING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.
HOWEVER...RAINFALL RATES/AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS MLCAPES MAY INCREASE TO
JUST OVER 1000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASES TO 30-35 KTS. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN TX PANHANDLE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE DECLINE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHEARS OUT. CONVECTION THAT FORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CO/NM LATER TODAY IN POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO PROPAGATE INTO MOST OF THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT GIVEN THE
MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE /DESPITE A CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT/. HOWEVER WILL HANG ONTO SOME LOW POPS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

ASIDE FROM PERHAPS A LINGERING LIGHT SHOWER IN THE FAR SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN CWA THURSDAY MORNING...IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY. A FEW SHOWERS
OR STORMS MAY SNEAK INTO THE FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES THURSDAY NIGHT
ABOARD A CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

THIS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THUS WILL
MAINTAIN SOME PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES THROUGH
THIS TIME. HOWEVER BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...THE FLOW TURNS
MORE NORTHERLY AS THE UPPER RIDGE EDGES EASTWARD...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
ANY CONVECTION TO OUR WEST. PRECIP CHANCES MAY RETURN TOWARD
MID NEXT WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...IT WILL REMAIN COOL THE NEXT FEW DAYS
GIVEN THE CLOUDS...RAIN...AND REINFORCING FRONTAL SURGE. WE/LL START
TO SEE A SLOW WARM-UP LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

KB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                80  59  78  60  81 /  40  30  10  10  10
BEAVER OK                  70  61  82  62  85 / 100  30  10  10   5
BOISE CITY OK              72  58  79  60  82 /  50  30  10  20  20
BORGER TX                  79  63  82  64  85 /  50  30  10  10  10
BOYS RANCH TX              82  61  82  63  83 /  30  30  10  10  10
CANYON TX                  83  61  79  60  81 /  40  30  20  10  10
CLARENDON TX               84  62  79  62  83 /  50  40  20   5  10
DALHART TX                 77  58  79  61  82 /  40  30  10  20  20
GUYMON OK                  72  61  82  62  86 /  80  30  10  10  10
HEREFORD TX                86  60  78  60  81 /  30  30  20  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                75  61  81  61  84 /  90  40  10   5   5
PAMPA TX                   76  59  79  60  83 /  60  30  10   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                80  62  81  60  85 /  70  50  10  10   5
WELLINGTON TX              84  64  83  61  86 /  60  50  20  10   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     DALLAM...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...
     LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...SHERMAN.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

08/03






000
FXUS64 KAMA 300948
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
448 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS LIES WITH ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...AND THE
ATTENDANT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING.

AN MCS CONTINUES TO ROLL EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
BEST ORGANIZATION EXTENDS FROM THE OK PANHANDLE/FAR NORTHERN TX
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEAST CO AND WESTERN KS...WITH MORE SCATTERED
ACTIVITY FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TX PANHANDLE.
FORCING AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN THIS
CONVECTION...WITH LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT
ATTENDANT TO A SOUTHERLY LLJ WHICH HAS STRENGTHENED TO 30-40KT AHEAD
OF THE SHORTWAVE PROVIDING FURTHER SUPPORT. A SURFACE FRONT WAS
DRAPED FROM SOUTHEAST CO ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KS INTO NORTHWEST
OK...WITH A TIGHTENING LOW TO MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE RESULTING IN
PRETTY GOOD LOW TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THIS FORCING IS ACTING ON AMPLE MOISTURE...WITH A COMBINATION
OF MOIST LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE ALOFT HAVING
BUMPED PWATS INTO THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE.

THE MAIN THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING WILL BE THIS
MORNING...WITH THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLES EXPECTED TO SEE THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS /1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE/. THIS ONGOING CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST INTO THE BODY OF OK BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE DECENT FORWARD
PROPAGATION WILL LIKELY KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT PRETTY ISOLATED
FOR OUR AREA DESPITE SOME GOOD RAIN RATES WITH THE MORE INTENSE
CONVECTION. DEBATED SHAVING OFF SOME COUNTIES FROM THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT WITH A CONVECTIVE LINE CURRENTLY
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS DALLAM COUNTY...WILL LEAVE IT AS IS FOR NOW.
HOWEVER...AT LEAST SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
ABLE TO BE CANCELLED EARLY. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THIS INITIAL WAVE /ALTHOUGH MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE/
GIVEN CONTINUED MID-LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL
FORCING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.
HOWEVER...RAINFALL RATES/AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS MLCAPES MAY INCREASE TO
JUST OVER 1000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASES TO 30-35 KTS. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN TX PANHANDLE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE DECLINE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHEARS OUT. CONVECTION THAT FORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CO/NM LATER TODAY IN POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO PROPAGATE INTO MOST OF THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT GIVEN THE
MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE /DESPITE A CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT/. HOWEVER WILL HANG ONTO SOME LOW POPS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

ASIDE FROM PERHAPS A LINGERING LIGHT SHOWER IN THE FAR SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN CWA THURSDAY MORNING...IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY. A FEW SHOWERS
OR STORMS MAY SNEAK INTO THE FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES THURSDAY NIGHT
ABOARD A CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

THIS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THUS WILL
MAINTAIN SOME PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES THROUGH
THIS TIME. HOWEVER BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...THE FLOW TURNS
MORE NORTHERLY AS THE UPPER RIDGE EDGES EASTWARD...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
ANY CONVECTION TO OUR WEST. PRECIP CHANCES MAY RETURN TOWARD
MID NEXT WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...IT WILL REMAIN COOL THE NEXT FEW DAYS
GIVEN THE CLOUDS...RAIN...AND REINFORCING FRONTAL SURGE. WE/LL START
TO SEE A SLOW WARM-UP LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

KB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                80  59  78  60  81 /  40  30  10  10  10
BEAVER OK                  70  61  82  62  85 / 100  30  10  10   5
BOISE CITY OK              72  58  79  60  82 /  50  30  10  20  20
BORGER TX                  79  63  82  64  85 /  50  30  10  10  10
BOYS RANCH TX              82  61  82  63  83 /  30  30  10  10  10
CANYON TX                  83  61  79  60  81 /  40  30  20  10  10
CLARENDON TX               84  62  79  62  83 /  50  40  20   5  10
DALHART TX                 77  58  79  61  82 /  40  30  10  20  20
GUYMON OK                  72  61  82  62  86 /  80  30  10  10  10
HEREFORD TX                86  60  78  60  81 /  30  30  20  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                75  61  81  61  84 /  90  40  10   5   5
PAMPA TX                   76  59  79  60  83 /  60  30  10   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                80  62  81  60  85 /  70  50  10  10   5
WELLINGTON TX              84  64  83  61  86 /  60  50  20  10   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     DALLAM...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...
     LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...SHERMAN.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

03/08






000
FXUS64 KAMA 300948
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
448 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS LIES WITH ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...AND THE
ATTENDANT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING.

AN MCS CONTINUES TO ROLL EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
BEST ORGANIZATION EXTENDS FROM THE OK PANHANDLE/FAR NORTHERN TX
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEAST CO AND WESTERN KS...WITH MORE SCATTERED
ACTIVITY FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TX PANHANDLE.
FORCING AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN THIS
CONVECTION...WITH LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT
ATTENDANT TO A SOUTHERLY LLJ WHICH HAS STRENGTHENED TO 30-40KT AHEAD
OF THE SHORTWAVE PROVIDING FURTHER SUPPORT. A SURFACE FRONT WAS
DRAPED FROM SOUTHEAST CO ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KS INTO NORTHWEST
OK...WITH A TIGHTENING LOW TO MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE RESULTING IN
PRETTY GOOD LOW TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THIS FORCING IS ACTING ON AMPLE MOISTURE...WITH A COMBINATION
OF MOIST LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE ALOFT HAVING
BUMPED PWATS INTO THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE.

THE MAIN THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING WILL BE THIS
MORNING...WITH THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLES EXPECTED TO SEE THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS /1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE/. THIS ONGOING CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST INTO THE BODY OF OK BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE DECENT FORWARD
PROPAGATION WILL LIKELY KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT PRETTY ISOLATED
FOR OUR AREA DESPITE SOME GOOD RAIN RATES WITH THE MORE INTENSE
CONVECTION. DEBATED SHAVING OFF SOME COUNTIES FROM THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT WITH A CONVECTIVE LINE CURRENTLY
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS DALLAM COUNTY...WILL LEAVE IT AS IS FOR NOW.
HOWEVER...AT LEAST SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
ABLE TO BE CANCELLED EARLY. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THIS INITIAL WAVE /ALTHOUGH MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE/
GIVEN CONTINUED MID-LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL
FORCING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.
HOWEVER...RAINFALL RATES/AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS MLCAPES MAY INCREASE TO
JUST OVER 1000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASES TO 30-35 KTS. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN TX PANHANDLE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE DECLINE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHEARS OUT. CONVECTION THAT FORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CO/NM LATER TODAY IN POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO PROPAGATE INTO MOST OF THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT GIVEN THE
MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE /DESPITE A CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT/. HOWEVER WILL HANG ONTO SOME LOW POPS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

ASIDE FROM PERHAPS A LINGERING LIGHT SHOWER IN THE FAR SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN CWA THURSDAY MORNING...IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY. A FEW SHOWERS
OR STORMS MAY SNEAK INTO THE FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES THURSDAY NIGHT
ABOARD A CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

THIS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THUS WILL
MAINTAIN SOME PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES THROUGH
THIS TIME. HOWEVER BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...THE FLOW TURNS
MORE NORTHERLY AS THE UPPER RIDGE EDGES EASTWARD...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
ANY CONVECTION TO OUR WEST. PRECIP CHANCES MAY RETURN TOWARD
MID NEXT WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...IT WILL REMAIN COOL THE NEXT FEW DAYS
GIVEN THE CLOUDS...RAIN...AND REINFORCING FRONTAL SURGE. WE/LL START
TO SEE A SLOW WARM-UP LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

KB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                80  59  78  60  81 /  40  30  10  10  10
BEAVER OK                  70  61  82  62  85 / 100  30  10  10   5
BOISE CITY OK              72  58  79  60  82 /  50  30  10  20  20
BORGER TX                  79  63  82  64  85 /  50  30  10  10  10
BOYS RANCH TX              82  61  82  63  83 /  30  30  10  10  10
CANYON TX                  83  61  79  60  81 /  40  30  20  10  10
CLARENDON TX               84  62  79  62  83 /  50  40  20   5  10
DALHART TX                 77  58  79  61  82 /  40  30  10  20  20
GUYMON OK                  72  61  82  62  86 /  80  30  10  10  10
HEREFORD TX                86  60  78  60  81 /  30  30  20  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                75  61  81  61  84 /  90  40  10   5   5
PAMPA TX                   76  59  79  60  83 /  60  30  10   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                80  62  81  60  85 /  70  50  10  10   5
WELLINGTON TX              84  64  83  61  86 /  60  50  20  10   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     DALLAM...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...
     LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...SHERMAN.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

03/08







000
FXUS64 KAMA 300457
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1157 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE INCREASER ACROSS ALL THREE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 06Z AND 20Z WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP PREVAILING TSRA OR TEMPO
GROUP FOR TSRA AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. THE DALHART TAF SITE MAY SEE
THE CONVECTION END EARLIER THAN THE AMARILLO AND GUYMON TAF
SITES...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL AND MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
ARE EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 20Z
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH WINDS 5 TO
15 KNOTS AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH 10 TO 25 KNOTS WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 10Z TO 14Z WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 01Z THURSDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE THREE TAF SITES AROUND
14Z TO 18Z WEDNESDAY SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING
TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS. UNTIL
THEN...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TAF SITES 5
TO 15 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL CONVECTION BEGINS TO
INCREASE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES AFTER 02Z TO 05Z WEDNESDAY AND THEN
MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES PREVAIL UNTIL AROUND
14Z TO 16Z WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AFTER 15Z
WEDNESDAY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...HOWEVER SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD STILL LINGER PAST 18Z WEDNESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
DESPITE THE CURRENT LULL IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES STAND TO SEE A GOOD CHANCE
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. CURRENT WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THIS WAVE HAS GENERATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NEW MEXICO AND AS THIS UPPER
WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
INCREASE IN COVERAGE. HIGH RES MODELS AND THE WRF AND NMM SOLUTIONS
INDICATE A PRECIPITATION MAXIMA OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE IN ASSOCIATION TO THE NOSE OF A 30 KT
LOW LEVEL JET. UPGLIDE OVER A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS EVENING WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ESPECIALLY OVER THIS AREA. THESE SIGNALS POINT
TO A MCS MOVING OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND
INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL...CONTINUED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR THIS AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE MCS WILL LIKELY BE OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY MORNING
ALTHOUGH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THOUGH AND WITH THE UPPER FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AND ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE...EXPECT ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING. ONCE AGAIN THE MAJORITY
OF CONCERNS WITH THIS CONVECTION WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S TO THE MID 80S.

LONG TERM...
CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BEFORE A SURFACE RIDGE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA. SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA WHICH CAN LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALTHOUGH MONSOONAL
MOISTURE ALOFT AND NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW CAN STEER CONVECTION INTO
THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE LATER IN THE DAY. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...SO HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EASTWARD OVER THE
WEEKEND...CAUSING THE UPPER FLOW TO VEER OUT OF THE NORHT. THIS WILL
KEEP ANY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AMA CWA. MODEL
SIGNALS INDICATE A POSSIBLE UPTICK ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
RIDGE. HAVE KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST /BEYOND
SATURDAY/ DRY FOR NOW. DESPITE THE RIDGE SHIFTING FURTHER TO THE
EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...
     SHERMAN.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

11






000
FXUS64 KAMA 300457
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1157 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE INCREASER ACROSS ALL THREE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 06Z AND 20Z WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP PREVAILING TSRA OR TEMPO
GROUP FOR TSRA AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. THE DALHART TAF SITE MAY SEE
THE CONVECTION END EARLIER THAN THE AMARILLO AND GUYMON TAF
SITES...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL AND MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
ARE EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 20Z
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH WINDS 5 TO
15 KNOTS AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH 10 TO 25 KNOTS WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 10Z TO 14Z WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 01Z THURSDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE THREE TAF SITES AROUND
14Z TO 18Z WEDNESDAY SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING
TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS. UNTIL
THEN...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TAF SITES 5
TO 15 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL CONVECTION BEGINS TO
INCREASE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES AFTER 02Z TO 05Z WEDNESDAY AND THEN
MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES PREVAIL UNTIL AROUND
14Z TO 16Z WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AFTER 15Z
WEDNESDAY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...HOWEVER SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD STILL LINGER PAST 18Z WEDNESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
DESPITE THE CURRENT LULL IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES STAND TO SEE A GOOD CHANCE
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. CURRENT WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THIS WAVE HAS GENERATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NEW MEXICO AND AS THIS UPPER
WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
INCREASE IN COVERAGE. HIGH RES MODELS AND THE WRF AND NMM SOLUTIONS
INDICATE A PRECIPITATION MAXIMA OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE IN ASSOCIATION TO THE NOSE OF A 30 KT
LOW LEVEL JET. UPGLIDE OVER A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS EVENING WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ESPECIALLY OVER THIS AREA. THESE SIGNALS POINT
TO A MCS MOVING OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND
INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL...CONTINUED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR THIS AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE MCS WILL LIKELY BE OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY MORNING
ALTHOUGH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THOUGH AND WITH THE UPPER FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AND ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE...EXPECT ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING. ONCE AGAIN THE MAJORITY
OF CONCERNS WITH THIS CONVECTION WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S TO THE MID 80S.

LONG TERM...
CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BEFORE A SURFACE RIDGE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA. SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA WHICH CAN LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALTHOUGH MONSOONAL
MOISTURE ALOFT AND NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW CAN STEER CONVECTION INTO
THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE LATER IN THE DAY. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...SO HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EASTWARD OVER THE
WEEKEND...CAUSING THE UPPER FLOW TO VEER OUT OF THE NORHT. THIS WILL
KEEP ANY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AMA CWA. MODEL
SIGNALS INDICATE A POSSIBLE UPTICK ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
RIDGE. HAVE KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST /BEYOND
SATURDAY/ DRY FOR NOW. DESPITE THE RIDGE SHIFTING FURTHER TO THE
EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...
     SHERMAN.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

11







000
FXUS64 KAMA 292255
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
555 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE THREE TAF SITES AROUND
14Z TO 18Z WEDNESDAY SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING
TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS. UNTIL
THEN...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TAF SITES 5
TO 15 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL CONVECTION BEGINS TO
INCREASE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES AFTER 02Z TO 05Z WEDNESDAY AND THEN
MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES PREVAIL UNTIL AROUND
14Z TO 16Z WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AFTER 15Z
WEDNESDAY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...HOWEVER SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD STILL LINGER PAST 18Z WEDNESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
DESPITE THE CURRENT LULL IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES STAND TO SEE A GOOD CHANCE
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. CURRENT WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THIS WAVE HAS GENERATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NEW MEXICO AND AS THIS UPPER
WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
INCREASE IN COVERAGE. HIGH RES MODELS AND THE WRF AND NMM SOLUTIONS
INDICATE A PRECIPITATION MAXIMA OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE IN ASSOCIATION TO THE NOSE OF A 30 KT
LOW LEVEL JET. UPGLIDE OVER A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS EVENING WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ESPECIALLY OVER THIS AREA. THESE SIGNALS POINT
TO A MCS MOVING OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND
INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL...CONTINUED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR THIS AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE MCS WILL LIKELY BE OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY MORNING
ALTHOUGH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THOUGH AND WITH THE UPPER FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AND ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE...EXPECT ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING. ONCE AGAIN THE MAJORITY
OF CONCERNS WITH THIS CONVECTION WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S TO THE MID 80S.

LONG TERM...
CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BEFORE A SURFACE RIDGE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA. SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA WHICH CAN LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALTHOUGH MONSOONAL
MOISTURE ALOFT AND NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW CAN STEER CONVECTION INTO
THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE LATER IN THE DAY. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...SO HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EASTWARD OVER THE
WEEKEND...CAUSING THE UPPER FLOW TO VEER OUT OF THE NORHT. THIS WILL
KEEP ANY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AMA CWA. MODEL
SIGNALS INDICATE A POSSIBLE UPTICK ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
RIDGE. HAVE KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST /BEYOND
SATURDAY/ DRY FOR NOW. DESPITE THE RIDGE SHIFTING FURTHER TO THE
EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...
     SHERMAN.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

11/19







000
FXUS64 KAMA 292255
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
555 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE THREE TAF SITES AROUND
14Z TO 18Z WEDNESDAY SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING
TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS. UNTIL
THEN...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TAF SITES 5
TO 15 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL CONVECTION BEGINS TO
INCREASE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES AFTER 02Z TO 05Z WEDNESDAY AND THEN
MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES PREVAIL UNTIL AROUND
14Z TO 16Z WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AFTER 15Z
WEDNESDAY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...HOWEVER SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD STILL LINGER PAST 18Z WEDNESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
DESPITE THE CURRENT LULL IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES STAND TO SEE A GOOD CHANCE
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. CURRENT WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THIS WAVE HAS GENERATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NEW MEXICO AND AS THIS UPPER
WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
INCREASE IN COVERAGE. HIGH RES MODELS AND THE WRF AND NMM SOLUTIONS
INDICATE A PRECIPITATION MAXIMA OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE IN ASSOCIATION TO THE NOSE OF A 30 KT
LOW LEVEL JET. UPGLIDE OVER A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS EVENING WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ESPECIALLY OVER THIS AREA. THESE SIGNALS POINT
TO A MCS MOVING OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND
INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL...CONTINUED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR THIS AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE MCS WILL LIKELY BE OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY MORNING
ALTHOUGH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THOUGH AND WITH THE UPPER FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AND ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE...EXPECT ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING. ONCE AGAIN THE MAJORITY
OF CONCERNS WITH THIS CONVECTION WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S TO THE MID 80S.

LONG TERM...
CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BEFORE A SURFACE RIDGE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA. SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA WHICH CAN LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALTHOUGH MONSOONAL
MOISTURE ALOFT AND NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW CAN STEER CONVECTION INTO
THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE LATER IN THE DAY. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...SO HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EASTWARD OVER THE
WEEKEND...CAUSING THE UPPER FLOW TO VEER OUT OF THE NORHT. THIS WILL
KEEP ANY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AMA CWA. MODEL
SIGNALS INDICATE A POSSIBLE UPTICK ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
RIDGE. HAVE KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST /BEYOND
SATURDAY/ DRY FOR NOW. DESPITE THE RIDGE SHIFTING FURTHER TO THE
EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...
     SHERMAN.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

11/19






000
FXUS64 KAMA 292055
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
355 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...
DESPITE THE CURRENT LULL IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES STAND TO SEE A GOOD CHANCE
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. CURRENT WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THIS WAVE HAS GENERATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NEW MEXICO AND AS THIS UPPER
WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
INCREASE IN COVERAGE. HIGH RES MODELS AND THE WRF AND NMM SOLUTIONS
INDICATE A PRECIPITATION MAXIMA OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE IN ASSOCIATION TO THE NOSE OF A 30 KT
LOW LEVEL JET. UPGLIDE OVER A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS EVENING WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ESPECIALLY OVER THIS AREA. THESE SIGNALS POINT
TO A MCS MOVING OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND
INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL...CONTINUED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR THIS AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE MCS WILL LIKELY BE OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY MORNING
ALTHOUGH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THOUGH AND WITH THE UPPER FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AND ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE...EXPECT ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING. ONCE AGAIN THE MAJORITY
OF CONCERNS WITH THIS CONVECTION WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S TO THE MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...
CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BEFORE A SURFACE RIDGE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA. SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA WHICH CAN LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALTHOUGH MONSOONAL
MOISTURE ALOFT AND NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW CAN STEER CONVECTION INTO
THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE LATER IN THE DAY. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...SO HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EASTWARD OVER THE
WEEKEND...CAUSING THE UPPER FLOW TO VEER OUT OF THE NORHT. THIS WILL
KEEP ANY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AMA CWA. MODEL
SIGNALS INDICATE A POSSIBLE UPTICK ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
RIDGE. HAVE KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST /BEYOND
SATURDAY/ DRY FOR NOW. DESPITE THE RIDGE SHIFTING FURTHER TO THE
EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CLK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                63  79  58  78  60 /  80  30  50  20  10
BEAVER OK                  63  74  61  83  59 /  90  80  40  20  10
BOISE CITY OK              62  72  55  79  60 /  80  60  50  30  20
BORGER TX                  64  79  60  81  63 /  90  40  50  20  10
BOYS RANCH TX              65  80  61  82  63 /  80  30  50  20  20
CANYON TX                  63  83  59  79  60 /  70  30  50  20  20
CLARENDON TX               65  82  60  79  61 /  80  40  50  30  10
DALHART TX                 62  78  57  79  60 /  80  40  50  30  20
GUYMON OK                  63  75  58  83  60 /  90  70  40  20  10
HEREFORD TX                63  82  58  78  61 /  60  30  50  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                64  75  60  81  59 /  90  80  50  20  10
PAMPA TX                   63  75  59  78  59 /  90  40  50  20  10
SHAMROCK TX                64  81  63  80  59 /  80  50  60  30  10
WELLINGTON TX              64  87  64  81  60 /  80  40  60  30  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...
     HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...
     OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...SHERMAN.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

09/05






000
FXUS64 KAMA 292055
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
355 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...
DESPITE THE CURRENT LULL IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES STAND TO SEE A GOOD CHANCE
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. CURRENT WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THIS WAVE HAS GENERATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NEW MEXICO AND AS THIS UPPER
WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
INCREASE IN COVERAGE. HIGH RES MODELS AND THE WRF AND NMM SOLUTIONS
INDICATE A PRECIPITATION MAXIMA OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE IN ASSOCIATION TO THE NOSE OF A 30 KT
LOW LEVEL JET. UPGLIDE OVER A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS EVENING WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ESPECIALLY OVER THIS AREA. THESE SIGNALS POINT
TO A MCS MOVING OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND
INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL...CONTINUED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR THIS AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE MCS WILL LIKELY BE OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY MORNING
ALTHOUGH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THOUGH AND WITH THE UPPER FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AND ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE...EXPECT ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING. ONCE AGAIN THE MAJORITY
OF CONCERNS WITH THIS CONVECTION WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S TO THE MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...
CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BEFORE A SURFACE RIDGE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA. SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA WHICH CAN LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALTHOUGH MONSOONAL
MOISTURE ALOFT AND NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW CAN STEER CONVECTION INTO
THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE LATER IN THE DAY. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...SO HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EASTWARD OVER THE
WEEKEND...CAUSING THE UPPER FLOW TO VEER OUT OF THE NORHT. THIS WILL
KEEP ANY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AMA CWA. MODEL
SIGNALS INDICATE A POSSIBLE UPTICK ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
RIDGE. HAVE KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST /BEYOND
SATURDAY/ DRY FOR NOW. DESPITE THE RIDGE SHIFTING FURTHER TO THE
EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CLK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                63  79  58  78  60 /  80  30  50  20  10
BEAVER OK                  63  74  61  83  59 /  90  80  40  20  10
BOISE CITY OK              62  72  55  79  60 /  80  60  50  30  20
BORGER TX                  64  79  60  81  63 /  90  40  50  20  10
BOYS RANCH TX              65  80  61  82  63 /  80  30  50  20  20
CANYON TX                  63  83  59  79  60 /  70  30  50  20  20
CLARENDON TX               65  82  60  79  61 /  80  40  50  30  10
DALHART TX                 62  78  57  79  60 /  80  40  50  30  20
GUYMON OK                  63  75  58  83  60 /  90  70  40  20  10
HEREFORD TX                63  82  58  78  61 /  60  30  50  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                64  75  60  81  59 /  90  80  50  20  10
PAMPA TX                   63  75  59  78  59 /  90  40  50  20  10
SHAMROCK TX                64  81  63  80  59 /  80  50  60  30  10
WELLINGTON TX              64  87  64  81  60 /  80  40  60  30  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...
     HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...
     OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...SHERMAN.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

09/05







000
FXUS64 KAMA 291802
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
102 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED TO UTILIZE VCTS FOR NOW GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY...BUT AMENDMENTS WILL CERTAINLY BECOME NECESSARY ONCE
TIMING CAN BE PINNED DOWN BETTER. MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE IN THE PERIOD
AND TURN WINDS TO NORTHERLY. BEFORE THAT...PREDOMINATELY SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

SIMPSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

UPDATE...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST PRECIP CHANCES TO CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
THE AMARILLO AREA IS LOOKING LIKE IT MIGHT MISS OUT ON A MAJORITY OF
RAIN FROM THE SHOWERS OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST...THOUGH REDEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHRTWV MOVES THROUGH.
THE N AND E PANHANDLES CONTINUE TO SEE RAIN THIS MORNING AND LATE
AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR HERE AS WELL, THOUGH IT IS A BIT
LESS LIKELY. BETTER CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE FROM THIS EVENING ON
STARTING IN THE NW PANHANDLES AND SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST. UPDATED
GRIDS ARE OUT...ZONES COMING SOON.

SIMPSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST ROUND WILL COME THIS
MORNING...WITH ONGOING PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY AT KGUY AND ANOTHER
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SLOWLY APPROACHING KAMA AND KDHT. MVFR
AND PERHAPS IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE PRECIPITATION. IN
ADDITION...SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL BRING IFR CIGS TO DHT THIS MORNING
EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION. EXPECT A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
THEN LIKELY THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF THIS
LATER ROUND IS LOW...BUT WILL RETAIN A VCTS MENTION LATER THIS
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT /DEPENDING ON THE SITE/.

KB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
IN SPITE OF VERY WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES ANALYZED AT 06Z...LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING
EARLY THIS MORNING...AS EVIDENCED BY KAMA VAD WIND PROFILE.
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND MODEST LIFT
FROM INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROF WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY...
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW...ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING LEAD US TO EXPECT MORE
THUNDERSTORMS.  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
DURING THIS TIME.  KAMA RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTALS INDICATE
THAT THIS AREA HAS ALREADY RECEIVED ONE INCH OR MORE.  THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SHARP 700 MB
TROF PASSES...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER...LESS UNSTABLE AIR ARRIVING AS
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS.

HAVE LOWERED POPS ON THURSDAY...DUE TO THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIR.  POPS ON FRIDAY HAVE BEEN TRIMMED IN AREA TO
INCLUDE ONLY WESTERN SECTIONS.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS...AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD BRING IN THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
COOLER CONDITIONS AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WELL ABOVE 20 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH INTERMITTENT
RAIN CHANCES. THUS NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...
     HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...
     OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...SHERMAN.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

09/05







000
FXUS64 KAMA 291802
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
102 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED TO UTILIZE VCTS FOR NOW GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY...BUT AMENDMENTS WILL CERTAINLY BECOME NECESSARY ONCE
TIMING CAN BE PINNED DOWN BETTER. MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE IN THE PERIOD
AND TURN WINDS TO NORTHERLY. BEFORE THAT...PREDOMINATELY SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

SIMPSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

UPDATE...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST PRECIP CHANCES TO CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
THE AMARILLO AREA IS LOOKING LIKE IT MIGHT MISS OUT ON A MAJORITY OF
RAIN FROM THE SHOWERS OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST...THOUGH REDEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHRTWV MOVES THROUGH.
THE N AND E PANHANDLES CONTINUE TO SEE RAIN THIS MORNING AND LATE
AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR HERE AS WELL, THOUGH IT IS A BIT
LESS LIKELY. BETTER CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE FROM THIS EVENING ON
STARTING IN THE NW PANHANDLES AND SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST. UPDATED
GRIDS ARE OUT...ZONES COMING SOON.

SIMPSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST ROUND WILL COME THIS
MORNING...WITH ONGOING PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY AT KGUY AND ANOTHER
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SLOWLY APPROACHING KAMA AND KDHT. MVFR
AND PERHAPS IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE PRECIPITATION. IN
ADDITION...SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL BRING IFR CIGS TO DHT THIS MORNING
EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION. EXPECT A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
THEN LIKELY THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF THIS
LATER ROUND IS LOW...BUT WILL RETAIN A VCTS MENTION LATER THIS
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT /DEPENDING ON THE SITE/.

KB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
IN SPITE OF VERY WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES ANALYZED AT 06Z...LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING
EARLY THIS MORNING...AS EVIDENCED BY KAMA VAD WIND PROFILE.
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND MODEST LIFT
FROM INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROF WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY...
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW...ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING LEAD US TO EXPECT MORE
THUNDERSTORMS.  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
DURING THIS TIME.  KAMA RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTALS INDICATE
THAT THIS AREA HAS ALREADY RECEIVED ONE INCH OR MORE.  THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SHARP 700 MB
TROF PASSES...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER...LESS UNSTABLE AIR ARRIVING AS
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS.

HAVE LOWERED POPS ON THURSDAY...DUE TO THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIR.  POPS ON FRIDAY HAVE BEEN TRIMMED IN AREA TO
INCLUDE ONLY WESTERN SECTIONS.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS...AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD BRING IN THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
COOLER CONDITIONS AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WELL ABOVE 20 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH INTERMITTENT
RAIN CHANCES. THUS NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...
     HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...
     OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...SHERMAN.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

09/05








000
FXUS64 KAMA 291656 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1156 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST PRECIP CHANCES TO CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
THE AMARILLO AREA IS LOOKING LIKE IT MIGHT MISS OUT ON A MAJORITY OF
RAIN FROM THE SHOWERS OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST...THOUGH REDEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHRTWV MOVES THROUGH.
THE N AND E PANHANDLES CONTINUE TO SEE RAIN THIS MORNING AND LATE
AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR HERE AS WELL, THOUGH IT IS A BIT
LESS LIKELY. BETTER CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE FROM THIS EVENING ON
STARTING IN THE NW PANHANDLES AND SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST. UPDATED
GRIDS ARE OUT...ZONES COMING SOON.

SIMPSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST ROUND WILL COME THIS
MORNING...WITH ONGOING PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY AT KGUY AND ANOTHER
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SLOWLY APPROACHING KAMA AND KDHT. MVFR
AND PERHAPS IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE PRECIPITATION. IN
ADDITION...SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL BRING IFR CIGS TO DHT THIS MORNING
EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION. EXPECT A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
THEN LIKELY THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF THIS
LATER ROUND IS LOW...BUT WILL RETAIN A VCTS MENTION LATER THIS
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT /DEPENDING ON THE SITE/.

KB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
IN SPITE OF VERY WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES ANALYZED AT 06Z...LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING
EARLY THIS MORNING...AS EVIDENCED BY KAMA VAD WIND PROFILE.
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND MODEST LIFT
FROM INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROF WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY...
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW...ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING LEAD US TO EXPECT MORE
THUNDERSTORMS.  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
DURING THIS TIME.  KAMA RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTALS INDICATE
THAT THIS AREA HAS ALREADY RECEIVED ONE INCH OR MORE.  THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SHARP 700 MB
TROF PASSES...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER...LESS UNSTABLE AIR ARRIVING AS
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS.

HAVE LOWERED POPS ON THURSDAY...DUE TO THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIR.  POPS ON FRIDAY HAVE BEEN TRIMMED IN AREA TO
INCLUDE ONLY WESTERN SECTIONS.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS...AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD BRING IN THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
COOLER CONDITIONS AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WELL ABOVE 20 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH INTERMITTENT
RAIN CHANCES. THUS NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...
     HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...
     OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...SHERMAN.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

09/05







000
FXUS64 KAMA 291656 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1156 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST PRECIP CHANCES TO CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
THE AMARILLO AREA IS LOOKING LIKE IT MIGHT MISS OUT ON A MAJORITY OF
RAIN FROM THE SHOWERS OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST...THOUGH REDEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHRTWV MOVES THROUGH.
THE N AND E PANHANDLES CONTINUE TO SEE RAIN THIS MORNING AND LATE
AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR HERE AS WELL, THOUGH IT IS A BIT
LESS LIKELY. BETTER CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE FROM THIS EVENING ON
STARTING IN THE NW PANHANDLES AND SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST. UPDATED
GRIDS ARE OUT...ZONES COMING SOON.

SIMPSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST ROUND WILL COME THIS
MORNING...WITH ONGOING PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY AT KGUY AND ANOTHER
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SLOWLY APPROACHING KAMA AND KDHT. MVFR
AND PERHAPS IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE PRECIPITATION. IN
ADDITION...SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL BRING IFR CIGS TO DHT THIS MORNING
EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION. EXPECT A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
THEN LIKELY THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF THIS
LATER ROUND IS LOW...BUT WILL RETAIN A VCTS MENTION LATER THIS
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT /DEPENDING ON THE SITE/.

KB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
IN SPITE OF VERY WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES ANALYZED AT 06Z...LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING
EARLY THIS MORNING...AS EVIDENCED BY KAMA VAD WIND PROFILE.
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND MODEST LIFT
FROM INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROF WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY...
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW...ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING LEAD US TO EXPECT MORE
THUNDERSTORMS.  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
DURING THIS TIME.  KAMA RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTALS INDICATE
THAT THIS AREA HAS ALREADY RECEIVED ONE INCH OR MORE.  THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SHARP 700 MB
TROF PASSES...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER...LESS UNSTABLE AIR ARRIVING AS
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS.

HAVE LOWERED POPS ON THURSDAY...DUE TO THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIR.  POPS ON FRIDAY HAVE BEEN TRIMMED IN AREA TO
INCLUDE ONLY WESTERN SECTIONS.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS...AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD BRING IN THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
COOLER CONDITIONS AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WELL ABOVE 20 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH INTERMITTENT
RAIN CHANCES. THUS NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...
     HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...
     OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...SHERMAN.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

09/05








000
FXUS64 KAMA 291134
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
634 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST ROUND WILL COME THIS
MORNING...WITH ONGOING PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY AT KGUY AND ANOTHER
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SLOWLY APPROACHING KAMA AND KDHT. MVFR
AND PERHAPS IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE PRECIPITATION. IN
ADDITION...SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL BRING IFR CIGS TO DHT THIS MORNING
EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION. EXPECT A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
THEN LIKELY THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF THIS
LATER ROUND IS LOW...BUT WILL RETAIN A VCTS MENTION LATER THIS
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT /DEPENDING ON THE SITE/.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
IN SPITE OF VERY WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES ANALYZED AT 06Z...LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING
EARLY THIS MORNING...AS EVIDENCED BY KAMA VAD WIND PROFILE.
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND MODEST LIFT
FROM INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROF WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY...
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW...ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING LEAD US TO EXPECT MORE
THUNDERSTORMS.  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
DURING THIS TIME.  KAMA RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTALS INDICATE
THAT THIS AREA HAS ALREADY RECEIVED ONE INCH OR MORE.  THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SHARP 700 MB
TROF PASSES...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER...LESS UNSTABLE AIR ARRIVING AS
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS.

HAVE LOWERED POPS ON THURSDAY...DUE TO THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIR.  POPS ON FRIDAY HAVE BEEN TRIMMED IN AREA TO
INCLUDE ONLY WESTERN SECTIONS.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS...AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD BRING IN THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
COOLER CONDITIONS AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WELL ABOVE 20 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH INTERMITTENT
RAIN CHANCES. THUS NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...
     HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...
     ROBERTS...SHERMAN.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

08/03







000
FXUS64 KAMA 291134
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
634 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST ROUND WILL COME THIS
MORNING...WITH ONGOING PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY AT KGUY AND ANOTHER
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SLOWLY APPROACHING KAMA AND KDHT. MVFR
AND PERHAPS IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE PRECIPITATION. IN
ADDITION...SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL BRING IFR CIGS TO DHT THIS MORNING
EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION. EXPECT A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
THEN LIKELY THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF THIS
LATER ROUND IS LOW...BUT WILL RETAIN A VCTS MENTION LATER THIS
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT /DEPENDING ON THE SITE/.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
IN SPITE OF VERY WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES ANALYZED AT 06Z...LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING
EARLY THIS MORNING...AS EVIDENCED BY KAMA VAD WIND PROFILE.
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND MODEST LIFT
FROM INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROF WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY...
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW...ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING LEAD US TO EXPECT MORE
THUNDERSTORMS.  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
DURING THIS TIME.  KAMA RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTALS INDICATE
THAT THIS AREA HAS ALREADY RECEIVED ONE INCH OR MORE.  THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SHARP 700 MB
TROF PASSES...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER...LESS UNSTABLE AIR ARRIVING AS
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS.

HAVE LOWERED POPS ON THURSDAY...DUE TO THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIR.  POPS ON FRIDAY HAVE BEEN TRIMMED IN AREA TO
INCLUDE ONLY WESTERN SECTIONS.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS...AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD BRING IN THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
COOLER CONDITIONS AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WELL ABOVE 20 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH INTERMITTENT
RAIN CHANCES. THUS NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...
     HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...
     ROBERTS...SHERMAN.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

08/03






000
FXUS64 KAMA 291007
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
430 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
IN SPITE OF VERY WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES ANALYZED AT 06Z...LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING
EARLY THIS MORNING...AS EVIDENCED BY KAMA VAD WIND PROFILE.
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND MODEST LIFT
FROM INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROF WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY...
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW...ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING LEAD US TO EXPECT MORE
THUNDERSTORMS.  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
DURING THIS TIME.  KAMA RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTALS INDICATE
THAT THIS AREA HAS ALREADY RECEIVED ONE INCH OR MORE.  THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SHARP 700 MB
TROF PASSES...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER...LESS UNSTABLE AIR ARRIVING AS
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS.

HAVE LOWERED POPS ON THURSDAY...DUE TO THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIR.  POPS ON FRIDAY HAVE BEEN TRIMMED IN AREA TO
INCLUDE ONLY WESTERN SECTIONS.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS...AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD BRING IN THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN.  03

COCKRELL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOLER CONDITIONS AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WELL ABOVE 20 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH INTERMITTENT
RAIN CHANCES. THUS NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.  03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                78  65  77  61  76 /  60  50  40  40  20
BEAVER OK                  79  64  73  61  81 /  50  90  80  40  20
BOISE CITY OK              79  62  72  56  77 /  60  80  60  40  20
BORGER TX                  83  67  76  65  80 /  50  60  50  40  20
BOYS RANCH TX              83  67  79  63  80 /  60  50  40  40  20
CANYON TX                  79  65  81  61  77 /  60  50  40  40  20
CLARENDON TX               82  67  79  61  79 /  60  50  40  50  20
DALHART TX                 80  62  76  60  78 /  60  60  50  40  20
GUYMON OK                  80  65  75  61  81 /  50  90  70  40  20
HEREFORD TX                80  65  80  59  77 /  70  40  40  40  20
LIPSCOMB TX                80  66  74  62  79 /  40  80  80  40  20
PAMPA TX                   79  65  73  61  78 /  50  60  50  40  20
SHAMROCK TX                80  66  78  64  80 /  50  60  50  50  20
WELLINGTON TX              83  66  83  65  82 /  50  50  40  50  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...
     HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...
     ROBERTS...SHERMAN.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

08/03





000
FXUS64 KAMA 291007
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
430 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
IN SPITE OF VERY WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES ANALYZED AT 06Z...LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING
EARLY THIS MORNING...AS EVIDENCED BY KAMA VAD WIND PROFILE.
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND MODEST LIFT
FROM INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROF WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY...
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW...ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING LEAD US TO EXPECT MORE
THUNDERSTORMS.  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
DURING THIS TIME.  KAMA RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTALS INDICATE
THAT THIS AREA HAS ALREADY RECEIVED ONE INCH OR MORE.  THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SHARP 700 MB
TROF PASSES...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER...LESS UNSTABLE AIR ARRIVING AS
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS.

HAVE LOWERED POPS ON THURSDAY...DUE TO THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIR.  POPS ON FRIDAY HAVE BEEN TRIMMED IN AREA TO
INCLUDE ONLY WESTERN SECTIONS.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS...AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD BRING IN THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN.  03

COCKRELL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOLER CONDITIONS AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WELL ABOVE 20 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH INTERMITTENT
RAIN CHANCES. THUS NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.  03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                78  65  77  61  76 /  60  50  40  40  20
BEAVER OK                  79  64  73  61  81 /  50  90  80  40  20
BOISE CITY OK              79  62  72  56  77 /  60  80  60  40  20
BORGER TX                  83  67  76  65  80 /  50  60  50  40  20
BOYS RANCH TX              83  67  79  63  80 /  60  50  40  40  20
CANYON TX                  79  65  81  61  77 /  60  50  40  40  20
CLARENDON TX               82  67  79  61  79 /  60  50  40  50  20
DALHART TX                 80  62  76  60  78 /  60  60  50  40  20
GUYMON OK                  80  65  75  61  81 /  50  90  70  40  20
HEREFORD TX                80  65  80  59  77 /  70  40  40  40  20
LIPSCOMB TX                80  66  74  62  79 /  40  80  80  40  20
PAMPA TX                   79  65  73  61  78 /  50  60  50  40  20
SHAMROCK TX                80  66  78  64  80 /  50  60  50  50  20
WELLINGTON TX              83  66  83  65  82 /  50  50  40  50  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...
     HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...
     ROBERTS...SHERMAN.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

08/03






000
FXUS64 KAMA 290458 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1158 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...IT REMAINS PROBLEMATIC AS TO THE EXTENT...TIMING
...AND LOCATION OF ADDITIONAL TSTMS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
MOST MODELS SUGGEST NRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE THE PRIMARY
TARGET. DECIDED TO INSERT VCTS FROM 09Z TO 15Z AT KGUY AND KDHT...AND
OMITTED THIS ELEMENT FROM KAMA. EXPECT A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION
LATE TUE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MOST MODELS SUGGEST NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA AROUND 00Z WED...AND
HAVE INSERTED VCTS AT ALL TERMINAL SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SOME
CONCERN FOR MVFR CIGS DURG THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT DID RETAIN A SCT MVFR DECK AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXTENT...TIMING...
AND LOCATION OF ADDITIONAL TSTMS FOR LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. NRN ZONES APPEAR TO BE THE MOST LIKELY TARGET COMPARED TO
SRN TX PNHDL. HOWEVER...WHETHER OR NOT ANY TERMINAL SITE WILL BE
IMPACTED BY THIS EXPECTED NEXT ROUND OF TSTMS REMAINS TO BE SEEN.
RATHER THAN SMATTER THE TAFS WITH LONG HOURS OF TSTMS...HAVE DECIDED
TO OMIT THIS WEATHER ELEMENT FROM THIS TAF FCST CYCLE. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS THIS EVENING...WITH AMENDMENTS PSBL IF
WARRANTED.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE CHANGE TO WETTER AND COOLER WEATHER IS WELL UNDERWAY TODAY.
STRONGER CONVECTION THAT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING HAS
PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE AREA...LEAVING THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE AREA
WORKED OVER. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED TEMPS FROM CLIMBING
MUCH OUT OF THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THESE PARAMETERS...CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION HAS INCREASED OVER THE AREA AND THUS EXPECT A GENERAL
DOWNTREND IN CONVECTION DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...OUTSIDE OF THE LIGHT SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. NWP MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. MOIST UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND
MONSOONAL MOISTURE ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BRING THE RISK FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE CONVECTION
THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER TODAY PRODUCED SPOTTY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
0.50-1.50 INCHES WHILE THERE WAS A GOOD PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER LEADING
UP TO TODAYS RAINFALL.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TUESDAY MORNING AND MUCH
LIKE TODAY...WITH A LULL IN COVERAGE BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER SINCE A
CONTINUED FETCH OF ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA...WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE AREA.
SHOULD SEE IN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD LATE
TUESDAY EVENING AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE AN MCS WITH
THIS UPPER WAVE WHERE IT WILL SLIDE OVER THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BEFORE HEADING INTO
OKLAHOMA EARLY WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL IS VERY LIKELY WITH THIS
COMPLEX OF STORMS AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH VERY WELL MAY BE NEEDED.
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND ANTICIPATED PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD HIGH
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.

LONG TERM...
THE UPPER WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH MOIST UPSLOPE POST FRONTAL SURFACE FLOW WILL
HELP TO GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MAY BE LOWERED AS RAIN COOLED AIR AND THICK
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT HIGHS IN THE 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. CONFIDENCE
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOWERS TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK AS WHILE THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
LATE IN THE WEEK...SURFACE RIDGING SUGGESTS A DRYING TREND ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND LIGHT NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW
WILL ALLOW THESE STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER FLOW WILL VEER OUT OF THE
NORTH BY SUNDAY...KEEPING ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO OUR WEST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES /WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE 80S/ WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE
WESTWARD PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 290458 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1158 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...IT REMAINS PROBLEMATIC AS TO THE EXTENT...TIMING
...AND LOCATION OF ADDITIONAL TSTMS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
MOST MODELS SUGGEST NRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE THE PRIMARY
TARGET. DECIDED TO INSERT VCTS FROM 09Z TO 15Z AT KGUY AND KDHT...AND
OMITTED THIS ELEMENT FROM KAMA. EXPECT A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION
LATE TUE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MOST MODELS SUGGEST NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA AROUND 00Z WED...AND
HAVE INSERTED VCTS AT ALL TERMINAL SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SOME
CONCERN FOR MVFR CIGS DURG THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT DID RETAIN A SCT MVFR DECK AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXTENT...TIMING...
AND LOCATION OF ADDITIONAL TSTMS FOR LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. NRN ZONES APPEAR TO BE THE MOST LIKELY TARGET COMPARED TO
SRN TX PNHDL. HOWEVER...WHETHER OR NOT ANY TERMINAL SITE WILL BE
IMPACTED BY THIS EXPECTED NEXT ROUND OF TSTMS REMAINS TO BE SEEN.
RATHER THAN SMATTER THE TAFS WITH LONG HOURS OF TSTMS...HAVE DECIDED
TO OMIT THIS WEATHER ELEMENT FROM THIS TAF FCST CYCLE. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS THIS EVENING...WITH AMENDMENTS PSBL IF
WARRANTED.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE CHANGE TO WETTER AND COOLER WEATHER IS WELL UNDERWAY TODAY.
STRONGER CONVECTION THAT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING HAS
PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE AREA...LEAVING THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE AREA
WORKED OVER. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED TEMPS FROM CLIMBING
MUCH OUT OF THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THESE PARAMETERS...CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION HAS INCREASED OVER THE AREA AND THUS EXPECT A GENERAL
DOWNTREND IN CONVECTION DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...OUTSIDE OF THE LIGHT SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. NWP MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. MOIST UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND
MONSOONAL MOISTURE ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BRING THE RISK FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE CONVECTION
THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER TODAY PRODUCED SPOTTY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
0.50-1.50 INCHES WHILE THERE WAS A GOOD PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER LEADING
UP TO TODAYS RAINFALL.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TUESDAY MORNING AND MUCH
LIKE TODAY...WITH A LULL IN COVERAGE BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER SINCE A
CONTINUED FETCH OF ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA...WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE AREA.
SHOULD SEE IN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD LATE
TUESDAY EVENING AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE AN MCS WITH
THIS UPPER WAVE WHERE IT WILL SLIDE OVER THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BEFORE HEADING INTO
OKLAHOMA EARLY WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL IS VERY LIKELY WITH THIS
COMPLEX OF STORMS AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH VERY WELL MAY BE NEEDED.
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND ANTICIPATED PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD HIGH
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.

LONG TERM...
THE UPPER WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH MOIST UPSLOPE POST FRONTAL SURFACE FLOW WILL
HELP TO GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MAY BE LOWERED AS RAIN COOLED AIR AND THICK
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT HIGHS IN THE 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. CONFIDENCE
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOWERS TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK AS WHILE THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
LATE IN THE WEEK...SURFACE RIDGING SUGGESTS A DRYING TREND ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND LIGHT NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW
WILL ALLOW THESE STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER FLOW WILL VEER OUT OF THE
NORTH BY SUNDAY...KEEPING ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO OUR WEST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES /WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE 80S/ WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE
WESTWARD PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KAMA 282340 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
640 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXTENT...TIMING...
AND LOCATION OF ADDITIONAL TSTMS FOR LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. NRN ZONES APPEAR TO BE THE MOST LIKELY TARGET COMPARED TO
SRN TX PNHDL. HOWEVER...WHETHER OR NOT ANY TERMINAL SITE WILL BE
IMPACTED BY THIS EXPECTED NEXT ROUND OF TSTMS REMAINS TO BE SEEN.
RATHER THAN SMATTER THE TAFS WITH LONG HOURS OF TSTMS...HAVE DECIDED
TO OMIT THIS WEATHER ELEMENT FROM THIS TAF FCST CYCLE. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS THIS EVENING...WITH AMENDMENTS PSBL IF
WARRANTED.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE CHANGE TO WETTER AND COOLER WEATHER IS WELL UNDERWAY TODAY.
STRONGER CONVECTION THAT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING HAS
PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE AREA...LEAVING THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE AREA
WORKED OVER. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED TEMPS FROM CLIMBING
MUCH OUT OF THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THESE PARAMETERS...CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION HAS INCREASED OVER THE AREA AND THUS EXPECT A GENERAL
DOWNTREND IN CONVECTION DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...OUTSIDE OF THE LIGHT SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. NWP MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. MOIST UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND
MONSOONAL MOISTURE ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BRING THE RISK FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE CONVECTION
THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER TODAY PRODUCED SPOTTY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
0.50-1.50 INCHES WHILE THERE WAS A GOOD PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER LEADING
UP TO TODAYS RAINFALL.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TUESDAY MORNING AND MUCH
LIKE TODAY...WITH A LULL IN COVERAGE BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER SINCE A
CONTINUED FETCH OF ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA...WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE AREA.
SHOULD SEE IN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD LATE
TUESDAY EVENING AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE AN MCS WITH
THIS UPPER WAVE WHERE IT WILL SLIDE OVER THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BEFORE HEADING INTO
OKLAHOMA EARLY WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL IS VERY LIKELY WITH THIS
COMPLEX OF STORMS AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH VERY WELL MAY BE NEEDED.
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND ANTICIPATED PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD HIGH
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.

LONG TERM...
THE UPPER WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH MOIST UPSLOPE POST FRONTAL SURFACE FLOW WILL
HELP TO GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MAY BE LOWERED AS RAIN COOLED AIR AND THICK
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT HIGHS IN THE 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. CONFIDENCE
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOWERS TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK AS WHILE THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
LATE IN THE WEEK...SURFACE RIDGING SUGGESTS A DRYING TREND ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND LIGHT NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW
WILL ALLOW THESE STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER FLOW WILL VEER OUT OF THE
NORTH BY SUNDAY...KEEPING ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO OUR WEST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES /WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE 80S/ WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE
WESTWARD PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 282110
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
410 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE CHANGE TO WETTER AND COOLER WEATHER IS WELL UNDERWAY TODAY.
STRONGER CONVECTION THAT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING HAS
PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE AREA...LEAVING THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE AREA
WORKED OVER. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED TEMPS FROM CLIMBING
MUCH OUT OF THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THESE PARAMETERS...CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION HAS INCREASED OVER THE AREA AND THUS EXPECT A GENERAL
DOWNTREND IN CONVECTION DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...OUTSIDE OF THE LIGHT SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. NWP MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. MOIST UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND
MONSOONAL MOISTURE ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BRING THE RISK FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE CONVECTION
THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER TODAY PRODUCED SPOTTY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
0.50-1.50 INCHES WHILE THERE WAS A GOOD PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER LEADING
UP TO TODAYS RAINFALL.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TUESDAY MORNING AND MUCH
LIKE TODAY...WITH A LULL IN COVERAGE BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER SINCE A
CONTINUED FETCH OF ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA...WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE AREA.
SHOULD SEE IN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD LATE
TUESDAY EVENING AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE AN MCS WITH
THIS UPPER WAVE WHERE IT WILL SLIDE OVER THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BEFORE HEADING INTO
OKLAHOMA EARLY WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL IS VERY LIKELY WITH THIS
COMPLEX OF STORMS AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH VERY WELL MAY BE NEEDED.
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND ANTICIPATED PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD HIGH
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...
THE UPPER WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH MOIST UPSLOPE POST FRONTAL SURFACE FLOW WILL
HELP TO GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MAY BE LOWERED AS RAIN COOLED AIR AND THICK
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT HIGHS IN THE 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. CONFIDENCE
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOWERS TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK AS WHILE THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
LATE IN THE WEEK...SURFACE RIDGING SUGGESTS A DRYING TREND ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND LIGHT NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW
WILL ALLOW THESE STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER FLOW WILL VEER OUT OF THE
NORTH BY SUNDAY...KEEPING ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO OUR WEST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES /WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE 80S/ WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE
WESTWARD PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

CLK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                61  82  66  81  59 /  50  50  50  40  40
BEAVER OK                  63  82  64  75  59 /  50  40  80  80  50
BOISE CITY OK              62  84  60  75  57 /  50  60  70  60  50
BORGER TX                  65  83  69  79  62 /  50  50  60  50  50
BOYS RANCH TX              65  84  69  81  62 /  50  50  50  40  40
CANYON TX                  61  83  66  84  61 /  50  40  50  40  40
CLARENDON TX               64  82  65  83  60 /  50  40  50  40  40
DALHART TX                 62  83  64  76  58 /  50  50  60  50  40
GUYMON OK                  63  80  62  75  59 /  50  50  80  70  50
HEREFORD TX                62  82  65  82  60 /  50  40  40  40  30
LIPSCOMB TX                64  81  62  78  60 /  40  40  70  80  50
PAMPA TX                   62  79  66  78  59 /  50  50  60  50  40
SHAMROCK TX                64  80  63  81  62 /  40  40  60  50  40
WELLINGTON TX              64  84  65  85  63 /  40  40  50  40  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/05







000
FXUS64 KAMA 282110
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
410 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE CHANGE TO WETTER AND COOLER WEATHER IS WELL UNDERWAY TODAY.
STRONGER CONVECTION THAT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING HAS
PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE AREA...LEAVING THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE AREA
WORKED OVER. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED TEMPS FROM CLIMBING
MUCH OUT OF THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THESE PARAMETERS...CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION HAS INCREASED OVER THE AREA AND THUS EXPECT A GENERAL
DOWNTREND IN CONVECTION DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...OUTSIDE OF THE LIGHT SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. NWP MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. MOIST UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND
MONSOONAL MOISTURE ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BRING THE RISK FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE CONVECTION
THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER TODAY PRODUCED SPOTTY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
0.50-1.50 INCHES WHILE THERE WAS A GOOD PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER LEADING
UP TO TODAYS RAINFALL.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TUESDAY MORNING AND MUCH
LIKE TODAY...WITH A LULL IN COVERAGE BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER SINCE A
CONTINUED FETCH OF ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA...WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE AREA.
SHOULD SEE IN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD LATE
TUESDAY EVENING AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE AN MCS WITH
THIS UPPER WAVE WHERE IT WILL SLIDE OVER THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BEFORE HEADING INTO
OKLAHOMA EARLY WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL IS VERY LIKELY WITH THIS
COMPLEX OF STORMS AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH VERY WELL MAY BE NEEDED.
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND ANTICIPATED PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD HIGH
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...
THE UPPER WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH MOIST UPSLOPE POST FRONTAL SURFACE FLOW WILL
HELP TO GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MAY BE LOWERED AS RAIN COOLED AIR AND THICK
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT HIGHS IN THE 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. CONFIDENCE
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOWERS TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK AS WHILE THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
LATE IN THE WEEK...SURFACE RIDGING SUGGESTS A DRYING TREND ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND LIGHT NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW
WILL ALLOW THESE STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER FLOW WILL VEER OUT OF THE
NORTH BY SUNDAY...KEEPING ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO OUR WEST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES /WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE 80S/ WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE
WESTWARD PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

CLK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                61  82  66  81  59 /  50  50  50  40  40
BEAVER OK                  63  82  64  75  59 /  50  40  80  80  50
BOISE CITY OK              62  84  60  75  57 /  50  60  70  60  50
BORGER TX                  65  83  69  79  62 /  50  50  60  50  50
BOYS RANCH TX              65  84  69  81  62 /  50  50  50  40  40
CANYON TX                  61  83  66  84  61 /  50  40  50  40  40
CLARENDON TX               64  82  65  83  60 /  50  40  50  40  40
DALHART TX                 62  83  64  76  58 /  50  50  60  50  40
GUYMON OK                  63  80  62  75  59 /  50  50  80  70  50
HEREFORD TX                62  82  65  82  60 /  50  40  40  40  30
LIPSCOMB TX                64  81  62  78  60 /  40  40  70  80  50
PAMPA TX                   62  79  66  78  59 /  50  50  60  50  40
SHAMROCK TX                64  80  63  81  62 /  40  40  60  50  40
WELLINGTON TX              64  84  65  85  63 /  40  40  50  40  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/05






000
FXUS64 KAMA 281130 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
630 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
MCS CONTINUES TO ROLL ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. THE MOST
INTENSE CONVECTION IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF IT NEAR AMA AND EASTWARD.
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND MENTIONED A TSRA AT THE AMA TAF SITE FOR THE
FIRST 4 HOURS. DID NOT MENTION ANY SHRA AT GUY OR DHT AS THE RAIN
THERE SHOULD BE ON A DECREASING TREND. THE OTHER TRICKY PART OF THIS
FORECAST ARE THE LOW CLOUDS. RIGHT NOW...BELIEVE THAT THE LOW CLOUDS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TSRA AT AMA. DID NOT MENTION LOW CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE FOR NOW...BUT THEY COULD GET CLOSE TO GUY AND DHT WITH THE
NEARLY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE WITH THE TSRA THIS MORNING...BUT THEY SHOULD
PICK A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AT ALL SITES BY MID DAY.

MORE TSRA MAY ROLL THIS WAY FROM THE MOUNTAINS LATE
TONIGHT...PROBABLY AFTER 04Z. BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN THE FORECAST NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CENTER OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH BACK TO THE WEST AND
IT WILL SET UP SHOP OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION BY LATE TONIGHT. AND
THERE IS WHERE IT WILL SIT THROUGH THE REST OF THIS FORECAST.
AGAIN...BELIEVE THAT THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE EAST OF THIS
HIGH WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA
AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH AND INTERACT WITH
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS.

TODAY THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE WITH THE CURRENT MCS WHICH IS OVER OUR NORTHWEST CWA. THE MODELS
DISAGREE ON JUST HOW FAR EAST THIS MCS MAKES IT BEFORE IT FALLS
APART. THE NAM MODEL IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN KEEPING THIS MCS TOGETHER
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST DURING THE DAY. SOME OTHER HIGH RES MODELS
ALSO SUPPORT THE NAM SOLUTION. THE GFS WEAKENS THIS MCS MUCH QUICKER
AND IT DOES NOT BRING IT AS FAR EAST. IF ONE IS TO BELIEVE THE NAM
SOLUTION...THEN THERE COULD BE A LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. IF YOU BELIEVE THE
GFS SOLUTION...THEN CONVECTION REGENERATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER MCS HEADS THIS WAY THIS EVENING. WE ARE
LEANING TOWARD THE NAM SOLUTION AT THIS TIME AS IT MAY TAKE SOME
TIME FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO RECOVER
BEFORE NEW CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP.  AND EVEN IF IT DOES DEVELOP...
IT MAY START OVER THE HIGHEST MOUNTAINS AND WITH THE WEAK FLOW
ALOFT...IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL IT REACHES OUR
NORTHWEST CWA. ALSO AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ON HOW INTENSE THE
CONVECTION WILL BE IF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
ARE STABILIZED DUE TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL
NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME FOR LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST CWA...SO THIS MAY BE ANOTHER PERIOD WHERE
HEAVIER RAIN CAN BE BETTER FORECAST.

THE FLOW ALOFT MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY BY THIS WEEKEND...
WHICH COULD POSSIBLY KEEP ANY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION TO OUR WEST. NOT
SURE RIGHT NOW IF THIS WILL BE THE CASE...BUT WILL KEEP THE CURRENT
FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW NONETHELESS.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/08







000
FXUS64 KAMA 281130 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
630 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
MCS CONTINUES TO ROLL ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. THE MOST
INTENSE CONVECTION IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF IT NEAR AMA AND EASTWARD.
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND MENTIONED A TSRA AT THE AMA TAF SITE FOR THE
FIRST 4 HOURS. DID NOT MENTION ANY SHRA AT GUY OR DHT AS THE RAIN
THERE SHOULD BE ON A DECREASING TREND. THE OTHER TRICKY PART OF THIS
FORECAST ARE THE LOW CLOUDS. RIGHT NOW...BELIEVE THAT THE LOW CLOUDS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TSRA AT AMA. DID NOT MENTION LOW CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE FOR NOW...BUT THEY COULD GET CLOSE TO GUY AND DHT WITH THE
NEARLY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE WITH THE TSRA THIS MORNING...BUT THEY SHOULD
PICK A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AT ALL SITES BY MID DAY.

MORE TSRA MAY ROLL THIS WAY FROM THE MOUNTAINS LATE
TONIGHT...PROBABLY AFTER 04Z. BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN THE FORECAST NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CENTER OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH BACK TO THE WEST AND
IT WILL SET UP SHOP OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION BY LATE TONIGHT. AND
THERE IS WHERE IT WILL SIT THROUGH THE REST OF THIS FORECAST.
AGAIN...BELIEVE THAT THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE EAST OF THIS
HIGH WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA
AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH AND INTERACT WITH
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS.

TODAY THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE WITH THE CURRENT MCS WHICH IS OVER OUR NORTHWEST CWA. THE MODELS
DISAGREE ON JUST HOW FAR EAST THIS MCS MAKES IT BEFORE IT FALLS
APART. THE NAM MODEL IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN KEEPING THIS MCS TOGETHER
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST DURING THE DAY. SOME OTHER HIGH RES MODELS
ALSO SUPPORT THE NAM SOLUTION. THE GFS WEAKENS THIS MCS MUCH QUICKER
AND IT DOES NOT BRING IT AS FAR EAST. IF ONE IS TO BELIEVE THE NAM
SOLUTION...THEN THERE COULD BE A LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. IF YOU BELIEVE THE
GFS SOLUTION...THEN CONVECTION REGENERATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER MCS HEADS THIS WAY THIS EVENING. WE ARE
LEANING TOWARD THE NAM SOLUTION AT THIS TIME AS IT MAY TAKE SOME
TIME FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO RECOVER
BEFORE NEW CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP.  AND EVEN IF IT DOES DEVELOP...
IT MAY START OVER THE HIGHEST MOUNTAINS AND WITH THE WEAK FLOW
ALOFT...IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL IT REACHES OUR
NORTHWEST CWA. ALSO AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ON HOW INTENSE THE
CONVECTION WILL BE IF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
ARE STABILIZED DUE TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL
NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME FOR LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST CWA...SO THIS MAY BE ANOTHER PERIOD WHERE
HEAVIER RAIN CAN BE BETTER FORECAST.

THE FLOW ALOFT MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY BY THIS WEEKEND...
WHICH COULD POSSIBLY KEEP ANY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION TO OUR WEST. NOT
SURE RIGHT NOW IF THIS WILL BE THE CASE...BUT WILL KEEP THE CURRENT
FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW NONETHELESS.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/08






000
FXUS64 KAMA 280819
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
319 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CENTER OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH BACK TO THE WEST AND
IT WILL SET UP SHOP OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION BY LATE TONIGHT. AND
THERE IS WHERE IT WILL SIT THROUGH THE REST OF THIS FORECAST.
AGAIN...BELIEVE THAT THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE EAST OF THIS
HIGH WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA
AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH AND INTERACT WITH
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS.

TODAY THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE WITH THE CURRENT MCS WHICH IS OVER OUR NORTHWEST CWA. THE MODELS
DISAGREE ON JUST HOW FAR EAST THIS MCS MAKES IT BEFORE IT FALLS
APART. THE NAM MODEL IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN KEEPING THIS MCS TOGETHER
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST DURING THE DAY. SOME OTHER HIGH RES MODELS
ALSO SUPPORT THE NAM SOLUTION. THE GFS WEAKENS THIS MCS MUCH QUICKER
AND IT DOES NOT BRING IT AS FAR EAST. IF ONE IS TO BELIEVE THE NAM
SOLUTION...THEN THERE COULD BE A LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. IF YOU BELIEVE THE
GFS SOLUTION...THEN CONVECTION REGENERATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER MCS HEADS THIS WAY THIS EVENING. WE ARE
LEANING TOWARD THE NAM SOLUTION AT THIS TIME AS IT MAY TAKE SOME
TIME FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO RECOVER
BEFORE NEW CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP.  AND EVEN IF IT DOES DEVELOP...
IT MAY START OVER THE HIGHEST MOUNTAINS AND WITH THE WEAK FLOW
ALOFT...IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL IT REACHES OUR
NORTHWEST CWA. ALSO AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ON HOW INTENSE THE
CONVECTION WILL BE IF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
ARE STABILIZED DUE TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL
NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME FOR LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST CWA...SO THIS MAY BE ANOTHER PERIOD WHERE
HEAVIER RAIN CAN BE BETTER FORECAST.

THE FLOW ALOFT MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY BY THIS WEEKEND...
WHICH COULD POSSIBLY KEEP ANY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION TO OUR WEST. NOT
SURE RIGHT NOW IF THIS WILL BE THE CASE...BUT WILL KEEP THE CURRENT
FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW NONETHELESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                82  64  83  64  83 /  30  50  40  50  40
BEAVER OK                  87  65  84  66  71 /  40  50  40  70  70
BOISE CITY OK              81  63  85  60  77 /  50  50  50  60  50
BORGER TX                  87  69  83  65  80 /  40  50  40  50  40
BOYS RANCH TX              84  67  89  68  84 /  40  50  40  50  40
CANYON TX                  82  64  86  65  86 /  30  50  40  40  30
CLARENDON TX               83  66  81  63  86 /  50  50  40  40  40
DALHART TX                 82  62  87  64  78 /  40  50  50  50  40
GUYMON OK                  82  66  83  62  74 /  60  50  50  70  60
HEREFORD TX                84  64  87  65  83 /  30  50  40  30  30
LIPSCOMB TX                86  65  82  65  73 /  40  40  40  70  70
PAMPA TX                   82  64  80  62  80 /  50  50  40  60  40
SHAMROCK TX                87  65  80  63  81 /  50  40  30  50  50
WELLINGTON TX              88  66  83  63  87 /  50  40  30  50  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/15





000
FXUS64 KAMA 280819
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
319 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CENTER OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH BACK TO THE WEST AND
IT WILL SET UP SHOP OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION BY LATE TONIGHT. AND
THERE IS WHERE IT WILL SIT THROUGH THE REST OF THIS FORECAST.
AGAIN...BELIEVE THAT THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE EAST OF THIS
HIGH WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA
AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH AND INTERACT WITH
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS.

TODAY THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE WITH THE CURRENT MCS WHICH IS OVER OUR NORTHWEST CWA. THE MODELS
DISAGREE ON JUST HOW FAR EAST THIS MCS MAKES IT BEFORE IT FALLS
APART. THE NAM MODEL IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN KEEPING THIS MCS TOGETHER
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST DURING THE DAY. SOME OTHER HIGH RES MODELS
ALSO SUPPORT THE NAM SOLUTION. THE GFS WEAKENS THIS MCS MUCH QUICKER
AND IT DOES NOT BRING IT AS FAR EAST. IF ONE IS TO BELIEVE THE NAM
SOLUTION...THEN THERE COULD BE A LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. IF YOU BELIEVE THE
GFS SOLUTION...THEN CONVECTION REGENERATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER MCS HEADS THIS WAY THIS EVENING. WE ARE
LEANING TOWARD THE NAM SOLUTION AT THIS TIME AS IT MAY TAKE SOME
TIME FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO RECOVER
BEFORE NEW CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP.  AND EVEN IF IT DOES DEVELOP...
IT MAY START OVER THE HIGHEST MOUNTAINS AND WITH THE WEAK FLOW
ALOFT...IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL IT REACHES OUR
NORTHWEST CWA. ALSO AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ON HOW INTENSE THE
CONVECTION WILL BE IF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
ARE STABILIZED DUE TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL
NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME FOR LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST CWA...SO THIS MAY BE ANOTHER PERIOD WHERE
HEAVIER RAIN CAN BE BETTER FORECAST.

THE FLOW ALOFT MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY BY THIS WEEKEND...
WHICH COULD POSSIBLY KEEP ANY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION TO OUR WEST. NOT
SURE RIGHT NOW IF THIS WILL BE THE CASE...BUT WILL KEEP THE CURRENT
FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW NONETHELESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                82  64  83  64  83 /  30  50  40  50  40
BEAVER OK                  87  65  84  66  71 /  40  50  40  70  70
BOISE CITY OK              81  63  85  60  77 /  50  50  50  60  50
BORGER TX                  87  69  83  65  80 /  40  50  40  50  40
BOYS RANCH TX              84  67  89  68  84 /  40  50  40  50  40
CANYON TX                  82  64  86  65  86 /  30  50  40  40  30
CLARENDON TX               83  66  81  63  86 /  50  50  40  40  40
DALHART TX                 82  62  87  64  78 /  40  50  50  50  40
GUYMON OK                  82  66  83  62  74 /  60  50  50  70  60
HEREFORD TX                84  64  87  65  83 /  30  50  40  30  30
LIPSCOMB TX                86  65  82  65  73 /  40  40  40  70  70
PAMPA TX                   82  64  80  62  80 /  50  50  40  60  40
SHAMROCK TX                87  65  80  63  81 /  50  40  30  50  50
WELLINGTON TX              88  66  83  63  87 /  50  40  30  50  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/15






000
FXUS64 KAMA 280550 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1250 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...INSERTED A VCTS ELEMENT AT KDHT FOR THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THIS FCST BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
THEREAFTER AS TO WHETHER OR NOT ANY ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL IMPACT A
PARTICULAR TERMINAL SITE SO HAVE DECIDED TO OMIT THAT ELEMENT FOR THIS
FCST CYCLE. RETAINED A SCT MVFR CLOUD DECK AT ALL TAF SITES FOR LATER
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...EXPECT SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO CONTINUE
DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. IT REMAINS
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHETHER OR NOT ANY SPECIFIC TERMINAL SITE WILL
BE IMPACTED AND WHEN...SO HAVE OPTED TO RETAIN VCTS AT KDHT FOR THE
FIRST FEW HOURS AND OMIT MENTION OF TSTMS AT KGUY AND KAMA AT THIS
TIME BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. AFTER A LULL IN PRECIPITATION
MONDAY MORNING...EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO BEGIN FORMING LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER OR NOT ANY TAF
SITES WILL BE IMPACTED BY TSTMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AMENDMENTS
TO THE CURERNT FCST MAY BECOME NECESSARY AS THE NIGHT UNFOLDS.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE LONG ANTICIPATED PATTERN CHANGE HAS STARTED TO TAKE SHAPE TODAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL BE FURTHER
AMPLIFIED AS A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST CONTINUES TO
DIG TO THE SOUTHEAST...FURTHER DEEPENING THIS TROUGH. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WHILE THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE NORTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THIS EVENING. HIGH-
RES MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE STORMS INITIATING ALONG THE FRONT LATE
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONVECTION PROPAGATING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OUT WEST AND MERGING WITH THE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. TODAYS 12Z
KAMA SOUNDING IS ALREADY INDICATING THE INCREASE OF ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND THE MOIST POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PROVIDE AN
ADDITIONAL SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...FURTHER PRIMING THE
ENVIRONMENT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN
THIS...HAVE GONE AND INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHWEST TEXAS
PANHANDLE. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AROUND 20 KTS HOWEVER MODERATE INSTABILITY CAN SUPPORT A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AS THE FRONT SLIDES
FURTHER SOUTH...TOWARD THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. THIS MAY SHIFT THE
AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE CONTINUED FETCH OF
MONSOONAL AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PROGGED INSTABILITY OF AROUND
1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
25-30 KT LOW LEVEL JET MONDAY NIGHT WILL HELP SUSTAIN AND INCREASE
CONVECTION LATE MONDAY NIGHT WHILE STORMS MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
IN NEW MEXICO. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL LEAD TO A MUCH COOLER DAY WHERE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ARE
EXPECTED AREA WIDE.

LONG TERM...
HAVE NOT MADE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY ON AS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS REMAINS IN BETWEEN THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THUS EXPECT INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE PROJECTED PATH OF THIS UPPER WAVE WILL FOCUS
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AMA CWA AS
A COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL FORM IN THIS AREA BEFORE MOVING INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS UPPER WAVE WILL ALSO PUSH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA...ALSO SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...FLOODING WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

MAY SEE A LULL IN STORMS BY FRIDAY EVENING ALTHOUGH WITH THE AREA
REMAINING UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES DURING THE DAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
INDICATE THE UPPER FLOW WILL VEER TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY
SUNDAY WHICH WOULD LEAD TO DIMINISHING PRECIP CHANCES. HOWEVER THE
GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF INDICATES STORMS MOVING INTO
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY BEYOND FRIDAY
FOR NOW BUT THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS THIS PERIOD
GETS CLOSER IN TIME.

HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WITH READINGS IN THE 80S.
EVEN COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY WILL KNOCK HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 280550 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1250 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...INSERTED A VCTS ELEMENT AT KDHT FOR THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THIS FCST BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
THEREAFTER AS TO WHETHER OR NOT ANY ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL IMPACT A
PARTICULAR TERMINAL SITE SO HAVE DECIDED TO OMIT THAT ELEMENT FOR THIS
FCST CYCLE. RETAINED A SCT MVFR CLOUD DECK AT ALL TAF SITES FOR LATER
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...EXPECT SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO CONTINUE
DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. IT REMAINS
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHETHER OR NOT ANY SPECIFIC TERMINAL SITE WILL
BE IMPACTED AND WHEN...SO HAVE OPTED TO RETAIN VCTS AT KDHT FOR THE
FIRST FEW HOURS AND OMIT MENTION OF TSTMS AT KGUY AND KAMA AT THIS
TIME BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. AFTER A LULL IN PRECIPITATION
MONDAY MORNING...EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO BEGIN FORMING LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER OR NOT ANY TAF
SITES WILL BE IMPACTED BY TSTMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AMENDMENTS
TO THE CURERNT FCST MAY BECOME NECESSARY AS THE NIGHT UNFOLDS.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE LONG ANTICIPATED PATTERN CHANGE HAS STARTED TO TAKE SHAPE TODAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL BE FURTHER
AMPLIFIED AS A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST CONTINUES TO
DIG TO THE SOUTHEAST...FURTHER DEEPENING THIS TROUGH. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WHILE THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE NORTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THIS EVENING. HIGH-
RES MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE STORMS INITIATING ALONG THE FRONT LATE
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONVECTION PROPAGATING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OUT WEST AND MERGING WITH THE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. TODAYS 12Z
KAMA SOUNDING IS ALREADY INDICATING THE INCREASE OF ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND THE MOIST POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PROVIDE AN
ADDITIONAL SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...FURTHER PRIMING THE
ENVIRONMENT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN
THIS...HAVE GONE AND INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHWEST TEXAS
PANHANDLE. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AROUND 20 KTS HOWEVER MODERATE INSTABILITY CAN SUPPORT A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AS THE FRONT SLIDES
FURTHER SOUTH...TOWARD THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. THIS MAY SHIFT THE
AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE CONTINUED FETCH OF
MONSOONAL AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PROGGED INSTABILITY OF AROUND
1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
25-30 KT LOW LEVEL JET MONDAY NIGHT WILL HELP SUSTAIN AND INCREASE
CONVECTION LATE MONDAY NIGHT WHILE STORMS MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
IN NEW MEXICO. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL LEAD TO A MUCH COOLER DAY WHERE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ARE
EXPECTED AREA WIDE.

LONG TERM...
HAVE NOT MADE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY ON AS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS REMAINS IN BETWEEN THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THUS EXPECT INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE PROJECTED PATH OF THIS UPPER WAVE WILL FOCUS
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AMA CWA AS
A COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL FORM IN THIS AREA BEFORE MOVING INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS UPPER WAVE WILL ALSO PUSH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA...ALSO SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...FLOODING WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

MAY SEE A LULL IN STORMS BY FRIDAY EVENING ALTHOUGH WITH THE AREA
REMAINING UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES DURING THE DAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
INDICATE THE UPPER FLOW WILL VEER TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY
SUNDAY WHICH WOULD LEAD TO DIMINISHING PRECIP CHANCES. HOWEVER THE
GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF INDICATES STORMS MOVING INTO
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY BEYOND FRIDAY
FOR NOW BUT THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS THIS PERIOD
GETS CLOSER IN TIME.

HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WITH READINGS IN THE 80S.
EVEN COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY WILL KNOCK HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$









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