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000
FXUS64 KAMA 021149 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
649 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE SRN TX PNHDL WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT NWD TODAY. LOW CLOUDS AND SOME BR EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES THIS MORNING. KAMA SHOULD BE THE FIRST TAF SITE TO IMPROVE...
EVENTUALLY FOLLOWED BY KDHT AND KGUY. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SE TO S LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU
TONIGHT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP SHOULD BE ISOLD
AND REMAIN E AND S OF THE TERMINAL SITES.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHEAST CWA WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE WILL
COMBINE WITH THE BEST LIFT. LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME FOG WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS MORNING.

AFTER TODAY...WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
UPPER HEIGHTS INCREASE WHEN THE NOSE OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES
THIS WAY FROM THE EAST.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN AND
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL GO UP. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE
BROUGHT OVER THE PANHANDLES IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND LIFT
WILL INCREASE AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WE COULD SEE A DRYING TREND BY MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO
MOVE BACK OVER THE REGION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TODAY AS IT WILL BE HARD TO FORECAST
JUST WHEN THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE
"COOLEST" TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BREAK THE LATEST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE TRICKY TO FORECAST ONCE THE RAIN
SETS IN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IF SOME AREAS REMAIN IN THE
CLOUDS WITH RAIN ON ONE OF THOSE DAYS...THEN HIGHS MAY NOT GET OUT
OF THE 70S...BUT IF SUNSHINE CAN BREAK THROUGH LONG ENOUGH...IT
WILL NOT BE TOUGH FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 80S.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEK. WINDS WILL GET STRONGER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT
LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 20
PERCENT FOR THE MOST PART. FUELS WILL REMAIN OUT OF CRITICAL
RANGES AS WELL.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 020728
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
228 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHEAST CWA WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE WILL
COMBINE WITH THE BEST LIFT. LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME FOG WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS MORNING.

AFTER TODAY...WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
UPPER HEIGHTS INCREASE WHEN THE NOSE OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES
THIS WAY FROM THE EAST.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN AND
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL GO UP. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE
BROUGHT OVER THE PANHANDLES IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND LIFT
WILL INCREASE AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WE COULD SEE A DRYING TREND BY MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO
MOVE BACK OVER THE REGION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TODAY AS IT WILL BE HARD TO FORECAST
JUST WHEN THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE
"COOLEST" TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BREAK THE LATEST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE TRICKY TO FORECAST ONCE THE RAIN
SETS IN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IF SOME AREAS REMAIN IN THE
CLOUDS WITH RAIN ON ONE OF THOSE DAYS...THEN HIGHS MAY NOT GET OUT
OF THE 70S...BUT IF SUNSHINE CAN BREAK THROUGH LONG ENOUGH...IT
WILL NOT BE TOUGH FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 80S.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEK. WINDS WILL GET STRONGER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT
LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 20
PERCENT FOR THE MOST PART. FUELS WILL REMAIN OUT OF CRITICAL
RANGES AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                94  69  94  67  92 /   5  10   5   5   5
BEAVER OK                  90  71  98  72  95 /  20  10  10   5   5
BOISE CITY OK              88  65  94  65  91 /   5   5  10   5  10
BORGER TX                  95  72  97  71  96 /   5  10   5   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              93  69  95  69  93 /   5   5   5   5   5
CANYON TX                  93  67  93  66  91 /   5   5   5   5   5
CLARENDON TX               96  68  94  68  93 /   5  10   5   5   5
DALHART TX                 91  65  96  64  93 /   5   5   5   5   5
GUYMON OK                  90  68  99  69  95 /   5  10  10   5   5
HEREFORD TX                94  66  93  64  91 /   5   5   5   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                92  72  95  71  93 /  20  10  10   5   5
PAMPA TX                   93  68  94  67  92 /  10  10   5   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                94  71  94  70  93 /  10  10   5   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              96  73  95  73  94 /  10  10   5   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

02/15






000
FXUS64 KAMA 020421 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1121 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT NORTHERN TERMINALS BEFORE
SUNRISE...AND TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEAST.

AT KAMA...LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO EDGE IN FROM THE NORTH...BUT TO NOT
BE OF SUFFICIENT COVERAGE TO CONSTITUTE A CEILING.  THIS WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY OVERNIGHT.  SURFACE WINDS WILL TREND TO SOUTHEAST
IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS
RUNNING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST NEAR KAMA...BUT EXPECT THAT MOST
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE EAST OF KAMA.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

UPDATE...
A POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE AIR MASS WILL ADVECT RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE HIGHWAY 60
CORRIDOR. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FOG IN THESE
SAME AREAS AFTER 4 AM, BUT VISIBILITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP TO
1/4 MILE OR LESS. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 10 AM TUESDAY, BUT THE
LOW CLOUDS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE STUBBORN TO BREAK UP ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PANHANDLES UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WE`LL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MAINLY THE EASTERN PANHANDLES FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE
A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES TO SEE RAIN:
1) WITH BACKBUILDING STORMS ALONG THE FRONT. IF THESE SOMEHOW
BACKBUILD INTO OUR AREA, LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF A WHEELER TO
CLARENDON LINE WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT OF BEING IMPACTED.
2) WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO LATE
TONIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS, BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH AND EAST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA, CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ANOMALY.

HOWEVER, CHANCES OF SEEING RAIN IN OUR AREA OVERNIGHT ARE NOT VERY
HIGH.

JACKSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
HAVE MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT
KAMA.

AT KDHT AND KGUY, HAVE MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IFR CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP 10Z-17Z AND 07Z-16Z, RESPECTIVELY. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT
LIFR CONDITIONS COULD EVEN BRIEFLY DEVELOP.

A FEW SHRA/TSRA COULD CLIP THE FAR NORTHEAST PANHANDLES LATE TONIGHT,
BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF KGUY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED TSRA TO ALSO DEVELOP JUST EAST OF KAMA AFTER 20Z, BUT
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

JACKSON

UPDATE...
CUMULUS ARE TRYING TO BUILD ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE,
BUT THESE TOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE LAST 30 MINUTES. 0000 UTC
KAMA RAOB DATA SHOW A WEAKER CAP THAN YESTERDAY, BUT IT`S STILL QUITE
APPARENT. APART FROM SOME WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE/CONFLUENCE,
CHANCES OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEAR VERY SLIM WITH NO BACKGROUND
FORCING FOR ASCENT PRESENT. IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP, IT SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF A WHEELER TO CLARENDON LINE.

WE`LL LIKELY HAVE TO DO A FORECAST UPDATE ONCE THE NEWEST MODEL AND
UPPER AIR DATA ROLL IN AS IT APPEARS THAT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE CANADIAN RIVER
VALLEY.

JACKSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

DID NOT CHANGE A LOT IN THE FORECAST AS GOING PACKAGE SEEMS TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE. THE OVERALL IDEA OF A WARM DRY WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COOLER
WETTER WEEKEND STILL REMAINS VALID THOUGH SOME OF THE DETAILS REMAIN
A BIT FUZZY DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT.

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
WARM AND PREDOMINATELY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO OVERNIGHT IN THE ERN PANHANDLES
TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIMITED. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW BEFORE
PICKING UP WED AND THU OUT OF THE SW.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE AREA SOMETIME AROUND THE THU NIGHT/FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME. MED RANGE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF
THIS FRONT...BUT HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GEM/ECMWF SOLUTION OF
BRINGING THE FRONT IN THU NIGHT AND KEEPING THE FRONT AROUND THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THIS PREFERENCE...HAVE TRIMMED
HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND AND LEFT IN THE PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/13






000
FXUS64 KAMA 020421 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1121 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT NORTHERN TERMINALS BEFORE
SUNRISE...AND TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEAST.

AT KAMA...LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO EDGE IN FROM THE NORTH...BUT TO NOT
BE OF SUFFICIENT COVERAGE TO CONSTITUTE A CEILING.  THIS WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY OVERNIGHT.  SURFACE WINDS WILL TREND TO SOUTHEAST
IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS
RUNNING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST NEAR KAMA...BUT EXPECT THAT MOST
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE EAST OF KAMA.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

UPDATE...
A POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE AIR MASS WILL ADVECT RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE HIGHWAY 60
CORRIDOR. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FOG IN THESE
SAME AREAS AFTER 4 AM, BUT VISIBILITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP TO
1/4 MILE OR LESS. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 10 AM TUESDAY, BUT THE
LOW CLOUDS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE STUBBORN TO BREAK UP ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PANHANDLES UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WE`LL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MAINLY THE EASTERN PANHANDLES FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE
A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES TO SEE RAIN:
1) WITH BACKBUILDING STORMS ALONG THE FRONT. IF THESE SOMEHOW
BACKBUILD INTO OUR AREA, LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF A WHEELER TO
CLARENDON LINE WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT OF BEING IMPACTED.
2) WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO LATE
TONIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS, BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH AND EAST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA, CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ANOMALY.

HOWEVER, CHANCES OF SEEING RAIN IN OUR AREA OVERNIGHT ARE NOT VERY
HIGH.

JACKSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
HAVE MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT
KAMA.

AT KDHT AND KGUY, HAVE MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IFR CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP 10Z-17Z AND 07Z-16Z, RESPECTIVELY. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT
LIFR CONDITIONS COULD EVEN BRIEFLY DEVELOP.

A FEW SHRA/TSRA COULD CLIP THE FAR NORTHEAST PANHANDLES LATE TONIGHT,
BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF KGUY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED TSRA TO ALSO DEVELOP JUST EAST OF KAMA AFTER 20Z, BUT
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

JACKSON

UPDATE...
CUMULUS ARE TRYING TO BUILD ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE,
BUT THESE TOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE LAST 30 MINUTES. 0000 UTC
KAMA RAOB DATA SHOW A WEAKER CAP THAN YESTERDAY, BUT IT`S STILL QUITE
APPARENT. APART FROM SOME WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE/CONFLUENCE,
CHANCES OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEAR VERY SLIM WITH NO BACKGROUND
FORCING FOR ASCENT PRESENT. IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP, IT SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF A WHEELER TO CLARENDON LINE.

WE`LL LIKELY HAVE TO DO A FORECAST UPDATE ONCE THE NEWEST MODEL AND
UPPER AIR DATA ROLL IN AS IT APPEARS THAT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE CANADIAN RIVER
VALLEY.

JACKSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

DID NOT CHANGE A LOT IN THE FORECAST AS GOING PACKAGE SEEMS TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE. THE OVERALL IDEA OF A WARM DRY WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COOLER
WETTER WEEKEND STILL REMAINS VALID THOUGH SOME OF THE DETAILS REMAIN
A BIT FUZZY DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT.

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
WARM AND PREDOMINATELY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO OVERNIGHT IN THE ERN PANHANDLES
TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIMITED. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW BEFORE
PICKING UP WED AND THU OUT OF THE SW.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE AREA SOMETIME AROUND THE THU NIGHT/FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME. MED RANGE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF
THIS FRONT...BUT HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GEM/ECMWF SOLUTION OF
BRINGING THE FRONT IN THU NIGHT AND KEEPING THE FRONT AROUND THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THIS PREFERENCE...HAVE TRIMMED
HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND AND LEFT IN THE PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/13







000
FXUS64 KAMA 020243 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
943 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
A POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE AIR MASS WILL ADVECT RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE HIGHWAY 60
CORRIDOR. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FOG IN THESE
SAME AREAS AFTER 4 AM, BUT VISIBILITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP TO
1/4 MILE OR LESS. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 10 AM TUESDAY, BUT THE
LOW CLOUDS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE STUBBORN TO BREAK UP ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PANHANDLES UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WE`LL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MAINLY THE EASTERN PANHANDLES FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE
A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES TO SEE RAIN:
1) WITH BACKBUILDING STORMS ALONG THE FRONT. IF THESE SOMEHOW
BACKBUILD INTO OUR AREA, LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF A WHEELER TO
CLARENDON LINE WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT OF BEING IMPACTED.
2) WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO LATE
TONIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS, BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH AND EAST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA, CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ANOMALY.

HOWEVER, CHANCES OF SEEING RAIN IN OUR AREA OVERNIGHT ARE NOT VERY
HIGH.

JACKSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
HAVE MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT
KAMA.

AT KDHT AND KGUY, HAVE MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IFR CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP 10Z-17Z AND 07Z-16Z, RESPECTIVELY. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT
LIFR CONDITIONS COULD EVEN BRIEFLY DEVELOP.

A FEW SHRA/TSRA COULD CLIP THE FAR NORTHEAST PANHANDLES LATE TONIGHT,
BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF KGUY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED TSRA TO ALSO DEVELOP JUST EAST OF KAMA AFTER 20Z, BUT
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

JACKSON

UPDATE...
CUMULUS ARE TRYING TO BUILD ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE,
BUT THESE TOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE LAST 30 MINUTES. 0000 UTC
KAMA RAOB DATA SHOW A WEAKER CAP THAN YESTERDAY, BUT IT`S STILL QUITE
APPARENT. APART FROM SOME WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE/CONFLUENCE,
CHANCES OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEAR VERY SLIM WITH NO BACKGROUND
FORCING FOR ASCENT PRESENT. IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP, IT SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF A WHEELER TO CLARENDON LINE.

WE`LL LIKELY HAVE TO DO A FORECAST UPDATE ONCE THE NEWEST MODEL AND
UPPER AIR DATA ROLL IN AS IT APPEARS THAT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE CANADIAN RIVER
VALLEY.

JACKSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

DID NOT CHANGE A LOT IN THE FORECAST AS GOING PACKAGE SEEMS TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE. THE OVERALL IDEA OF A WARM DRY WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COOLER
WETTER WEEKEND STILL REMAINS VALID THOUGH SOME OF THE DETAILS REMAIN
A BIT FUZZY DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT.

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
WARM AND PREDOMINATELY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO OVERNIGHT IN THE ERN PANHANDLES
TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIMITED. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW BEFORE
PICKING UP WED AND THU OUT OF THE SW.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE AREA SOMETIME AROUND THE THU NIGHT/FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME. MED RANGE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF
THIS FRONT...BUT HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GEM/ECMWF SOLUTION OF
BRINGING THE FRONT IN THU NIGHT AND KEEPING THE FRONT AROUND THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THIS PREFERENCE...HAVE TRIMMED
HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND AND LEFT IN THE PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

JC/JJ






000
FXUS64 KAMA 020243 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
943 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
A POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE AIR MASS WILL ADVECT RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE HIGHWAY 60
CORRIDOR. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FOG IN THESE
SAME AREAS AFTER 4 AM, BUT VISIBILITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP TO
1/4 MILE OR LESS. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 10 AM TUESDAY, BUT THE
LOW CLOUDS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE STUBBORN TO BREAK UP ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PANHANDLES UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WE`LL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MAINLY THE EASTERN PANHANDLES FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE
A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES TO SEE RAIN:
1) WITH BACKBUILDING STORMS ALONG THE FRONT. IF THESE SOMEHOW
BACKBUILD INTO OUR AREA, LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF A WHEELER TO
CLARENDON LINE WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT OF BEING IMPACTED.
2) WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO LATE
TONIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS, BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH AND EAST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA, CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ANOMALY.

HOWEVER, CHANCES OF SEEING RAIN IN OUR AREA OVERNIGHT ARE NOT VERY
HIGH.

JACKSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
HAVE MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT
KAMA.

AT KDHT AND KGUY, HAVE MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IFR CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP 10Z-17Z AND 07Z-16Z, RESPECTIVELY. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT
LIFR CONDITIONS COULD EVEN BRIEFLY DEVELOP.

A FEW SHRA/TSRA COULD CLIP THE FAR NORTHEAST PANHANDLES LATE TONIGHT,
BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF KGUY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED TSRA TO ALSO DEVELOP JUST EAST OF KAMA AFTER 20Z, BUT
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

JACKSON

UPDATE...
CUMULUS ARE TRYING TO BUILD ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE,
BUT THESE TOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE LAST 30 MINUTES. 0000 UTC
KAMA RAOB DATA SHOW A WEAKER CAP THAN YESTERDAY, BUT IT`S STILL QUITE
APPARENT. APART FROM SOME WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE/CONFLUENCE,
CHANCES OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEAR VERY SLIM WITH NO BACKGROUND
FORCING FOR ASCENT PRESENT. IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP, IT SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF A WHEELER TO CLARENDON LINE.

WE`LL LIKELY HAVE TO DO A FORECAST UPDATE ONCE THE NEWEST MODEL AND
UPPER AIR DATA ROLL IN AS IT APPEARS THAT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE CANADIAN RIVER
VALLEY.

JACKSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

DID NOT CHANGE A LOT IN THE FORECAST AS GOING PACKAGE SEEMS TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE. THE OVERALL IDEA OF A WARM DRY WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COOLER
WETTER WEEKEND STILL REMAINS VALID THOUGH SOME OF THE DETAILS REMAIN
A BIT FUZZY DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT.

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
WARM AND PREDOMINATELY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO OVERNIGHT IN THE ERN PANHANDLES
TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIMITED. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW BEFORE
PICKING UP WED AND THU OUT OF THE SW.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE AREA SOMETIME AROUND THE THU NIGHT/FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME. MED RANGE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF
THIS FRONT...BUT HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GEM/ECMWF SOLUTION OF
BRINGING THE FRONT IN THU NIGHT AND KEEPING THE FRONT AROUND THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THIS PREFERENCE...HAVE TRIMMED
HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND AND LEFT IN THE PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

JC/JJ







000
FXUS64 KAMA 012347 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
647 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
HAVE MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT
KAMA.

AT KDHT AND KGUY, HAVE MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IFR CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP 10Z-17Z AND 07Z-16Z, RESPECTIVELY. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT
LIFR CONDITIONS COULD EVEN BRIEFLY DEVELOP.

A FEW SHRA/TSRA COULD CLIP THE FAR NORTHEAST PANHANDLES LATE TONIGHT,
BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF KGUY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED TSRA TO ALSO DEVELOP JUST EAST OF KAMA AFTER 20Z, BUT
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

JACKSON

&&

.UPDATE...
CUMULUS ARE TRYING TO BUILD ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE,
BUT THESE TOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE LAST 30 MINUTES. 0000 UTC
KAMA RAOB DATA SHOW A WEAKER CAP THAN YESTERDAY, BUT IT`S STILL QUITE
APPARENT. APART FROM SOME WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE/CONFLUENCE,
CHANCES OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEAR VERY SLIM WITH NO BACKGROUND
FORCING FOR ASCENT PRESENT. IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP, IT SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF A WHEELER TO CLARENDON LINE.

WE`LL LIKELY HAVE TO DO A FORECAST UPDATE ONCE THE NEWEST MODEL AND
UPPER AIR DATA ROLL IN AS IT APPEARS THAT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE CANADIAN RIVER
VALLEY.

JACKSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

DID NOT CHANGE A LOT IN THE FORECAST AS GOING PACKAGE SEEMS TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE. THE OVERALL IDEA OF A WARM DRY WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COOLER
WETTER WEEKEND STILL REMAINS VALID THOUGH SOME OF THE DETAILS REMAIN
A BIT FUZZY DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT.

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
WARM AND PREDOMINATELY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO OVERNIGHT IN THE ERN PANHANDLES
TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIMITED. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW BEFORE
PICKING UP WED AND THU OUT OF THE SW.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE AREA SOMETIME AROUND THE THU NIGHT/FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME. MED RANGE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF
THIS FRONT...BUT HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GEM/ECMWF SOLUTION OF
BRINGING THE FRONT IN THU NIGHT AND KEEPING THE FRONT AROUND THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THIS PREFERENCE...HAVE TRIMMED
HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND AND LEFT IN THE PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

JC/JJ






000
FXUS64 KAMA 012116
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
416 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

DID NOT CHANGE A LOT IN THE FORECAST AS GOING PACKAGE SEEMS TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE. THE OVERALL IDEA OF A WARM DRY WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COOLER
WETTER WEEKEND STILL REMAINS VALID THOUGH SOME OF THE DETAILS REMAIN
A BIT FUZZY DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT.

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
WARM AND PREDOMINATELY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO OVERNIGHT IN THE ERN PANHANDLES
TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIMITED. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW BEFORE
PICKING UP WED AND THU OUT OF THE SW.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE AREA SOMETIME AROUND THE THU NIGHT/FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME. MED RANGE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF
THIS FRONT...BUT HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GEM/ECMWF SOLUTION OF
BRINGING THE FRONT IN THU NIGHT AND KEEPING THE FRONT AROUND THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THIS PREFERENCE...HAVE TRIMMED
HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND AND LEFT IN THE PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                66  92  69  93  67 /  10   5  10   5   5
BEAVER OK                  66  92  72  99  72 /  20  20  10  10   5
BOISE CITY OK              62  87  66  96  66 /  10   5   5  10   5
BORGER TX                  69  94  72  97  71 /  10   5  10   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              65  92  69  96  69 /  10   5   5   5   5
CANYON TX                  66  93  68  93  67 /  10   5   5   5   5
CLARENDON TX               70  95  70  94  69 /  20   5  10   5   5
DALHART TX                 63  89  65  96  65 /  10   5   5   5   5
GUYMON OK                  64  90  69  98  70 /  10   5  10  10   5
HEREFORD TX                64  92  66  93  65 /  10   5   5   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                67  93  72  95  72 /  20  20  10  10   5
PAMPA TX                   67  92  69  94  69 /  20  10  10   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                71  95  71  94  71 /  20  10  10   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              74  97  73  96  73 /  20  10  10   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

20/09








000
FXUS64 KAMA 012116
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
416 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

DID NOT CHANGE A LOT IN THE FORECAST AS GOING PACKAGE SEEMS TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE. THE OVERALL IDEA OF A WARM DRY WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COOLER
WETTER WEEKEND STILL REMAINS VALID THOUGH SOME OF THE DETAILS REMAIN
A BIT FUZZY DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT.

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
WARM AND PREDOMINATELY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO OVERNIGHT IN THE ERN PANHANDLES
TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIMITED. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW BEFORE
PICKING UP WED AND THU OUT OF THE SW.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE AREA SOMETIME AROUND THE THU NIGHT/FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME. MED RANGE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF
THIS FRONT...BUT HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GEM/ECMWF SOLUTION OF
BRINGING THE FRONT IN THU NIGHT AND KEEPING THE FRONT AROUND THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THIS PREFERENCE...HAVE TRIMMED
HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND AND LEFT IN THE PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                66  92  69  93  67 /  10   5  10   5   5
BEAVER OK                  66  92  72  99  72 /  20  20  10  10   5
BOISE CITY OK              62  87  66  96  66 /  10   5   5  10   5
BORGER TX                  69  94  72  97  71 /  10   5  10   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              65  92  69  96  69 /  10   5   5   5   5
CANYON TX                  66  93  68  93  67 /  10   5   5   5   5
CLARENDON TX               70  95  70  94  69 /  20   5  10   5   5
DALHART TX                 63  89  65  96  65 /  10   5   5   5   5
GUYMON OK                  64  90  69  98  70 /  10   5  10  10   5
HEREFORD TX                64  92  66  93  65 /  10   5   5   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                67  93  72  95  72 /  20  20  10  10   5
PAMPA TX                   67  92  69  94  69 /  20  10  10   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                71  95  71  94  71 /  20  10  10   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              74  97  73  96  73 /  20  10  10   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

20/09







000
FXUS64 KAMA 011717 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1217 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS VARYING FROM NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

KNS


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH OUT OF THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND THEN BECOME STATIONARY BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST THIS EVENING BEFORE A REINFORCING
SURGE PUSHES THE FRONT BACK SOUTH AGAIN BY 12Z TUESDAY. AS A
RESULT...WINDS WILL BE FLUCTUATING FROM THE NORTH AND EAST 5 TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS OR SO...AND THEN SOUTH AT THE AMARILLO TAF
SITE...BEFORE BECOMING NORTH AND NORTHEAST AGAIN BY 06Z TO 12Z
TUESDAY AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
12Z TUESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTH AT A FAIRLY GOOD CLIP THIS MORNING. FRONT
NOW LIES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE EASTERN
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY RIGHT WITH THE
FRONT...BUT THEN THEY WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS. HAVE
GENERALLY USED THE FASTEST GFS MODEL FOR WINDS TODAY...BUT EVEN HAD
TO SPEED UP THE FRONT A LITTLE OVER THE GFS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES AS RETURN FLOW OVER THE FRONT HELPS TO BRING
INSTABILITY BACK TO THE AREA. THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE
NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY HAVE THE BETTER SHOT OF RAIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE INSTABILITY COMBINES WITH BETTER DYNAMICS.

HAVE INSERTED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA FOR
TUESDAY AS MODELS INDICATE THAT THE OLD FRONT MAY STILL BE LINGERING
IN THIS AREA...ALSO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY POOL IN THIS AREA. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO PASS OVER THIS AREA ON TUESDAY.

WILL LEAVE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DRY AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE WHEN THE
NOSE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA WHICH
COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
NORTH.

ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WE HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO OUR EAST
AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS SHOULD BRING SUB
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BACK ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEK. THE LOWEST AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY GET DOWN
BELOW 20 PERCENT AND WINDS MAY GET GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE FAR NORTHWEST TEXAS
PANHANDLE. BUT FUELS WILL REMAIN OUT OF CRITICAL RANGES.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KAMA 011717 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1217 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS VARYING FROM NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

KNS


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH OUT OF THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND THEN BECOME STATIONARY BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST THIS EVENING BEFORE A REINFORCING
SURGE PUSHES THE FRONT BACK SOUTH AGAIN BY 12Z TUESDAY. AS A
RESULT...WINDS WILL BE FLUCTUATING FROM THE NORTH AND EAST 5 TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS OR SO...AND THEN SOUTH AT THE AMARILLO TAF
SITE...BEFORE BECOMING NORTH AND NORTHEAST AGAIN BY 06Z TO 12Z
TUESDAY AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
12Z TUESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTH AT A FAIRLY GOOD CLIP THIS MORNING. FRONT
NOW LIES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE EASTERN
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY RIGHT WITH THE
FRONT...BUT THEN THEY WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS. HAVE
GENERALLY USED THE FASTEST GFS MODEL FOR WINDS TODAY...BUT EVEN HAD
TO SPEED UP THE FRONT A LITTLE OVER THE GFS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES AS RETURN FLOW OVER THE FRONT HELPS TO BRING
INSTABILITY BACK TO THE AREA. THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE
NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY HAVE THE BETTER SHOT OF RAIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE INSTABILITY COMBINES WITH BETTER DYNAMICS.

HAVE INSERTED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA FOR
TUESDAY AS MODELS INDICATE THAT THE OLD FRONT MAY STILL BE LINGERING
IN THIS AREA...ALSO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY POOL IN THIS AREA. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO PASS OVER THIS AREA ON TUESDAY.

WILL LEAVE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DRY AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE WHEN THE
NOSE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA WHICH
COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
NORTH.

ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WE HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO OUR EAST
AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS SHOULD BRING SUB
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BACK ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEK. THE LOWEST AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY GET DOWN
BELOW 20 PERCENT AND WINDS MAY GET GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE FAR NORTHWEST TEXAS
PANHANDLE. BUT FUELS WILL REMAIN OUT OF CRITICAL RANGES.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KAMA 011113
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
613 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH OUT OF THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND THEN BECOME STATIONARY BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST THIS EVENING BEFORE A REINFORCING
SURGE PUSHES THE FRONT BACK SOUTH AGAIN BY 12Z TUESDAY. AS A
RESULT...WINDS WILL BE FLUCTUATING FROM THE NORTH AND EAST 5 TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS OR SO...AND THEN SOUTH AT THE AMARILLO TAF
SITE...BEFORE BECOMING NORTH AND NORTHEAST AGAIN BY 06Z TO 12Z
TUESDAY AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
12Z TUESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTH AT A FAIRLY GOOD CLIP THIS MORNING. FRONT
NOW LIES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE EASTERN
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY RIGHT WITH THE
FRONT...BUT THEN THEY WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS. HAVE
GENERALLY USED THE FASTEST GFS MODEL FOR WINDS TODAY...BUT EVEN HAD
TO SPEED UP THE FRONT A LITTLE OVER THE GFS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES AS RETURN FLOW OVER THE FRONT HELPS TO BRING
INSTABILITY BACK TO THE AREA. THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE
NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY HAVE THE BETTER SHOT OF RAIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE INSTABILITY COMBINES WITH BETTER DYNAMICS.

HAVE INSERTED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA FOR
TUESDAY AS MODELS INDICATE THAT THE OLD FRONT MAY STILL BE LINGERING
IN THIS AREA...ALSO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY POOL IN THIS AREA. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO PASS OVER THIS AREA ON TUESDAY.

WILL LEAVE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DRY AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE WHEN THE
NOSE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA WHICH
COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
NORTH.

ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WE HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO OUR EAST
AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS SHOULD BRING SUB
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BACK ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEK. THE LOWEST AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY GET DOWN
BELOW 20 PERCENT AND WINDS MAY GET GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE FAR NORTHWEST TEXAS
PANHANDLE. BUT FUELS WILL REMAIN OUT OF CRITICAL RANGES.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/15






000
FXUS64 KAMA 010725
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
225 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTH AT A FAIRLY GOOD CLIP THIS MORNING. FRONT
NOW LIES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE EASTERN
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY RIGHT WITH THE
FRONT...BUT THEN THEY WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS. HAVE
GENERALLY USED THE FASTEST GFS MODEL FOR WINDS TODAY...BUT EVEN HAD
TO SPEED UP THE FRONT A LITTLE OVER THE GFS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES AS RETURN FLOW OVER THE FRONT HELPS TO BRING
INSTABILITY BACK TO THE AREA. THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE
NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY HAVE THE BETTER SHOT OF RAIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE INSTABILITY COMBINES WITH BETTER DYNAMICS.

HAVE INSERTED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA FOR
TUESDAY AS MODELS INDICATE THAT THE OLD FRONT MAY STILL BE LINGERING
IN THIS AREA...ALSO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY POOL IN THIS AREA. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO PASS OVER THIS AREA ON TUESDAY.

WILL LEAVE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DRY AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE WHEN THE
NOSE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA WHICH
COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
NORTH.

ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WE HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO OUR EAST
AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS SHOULD BRING SUB
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BACK ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEK. THE LOWEST AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY GET DOWN
BELOW 20 PERCENT AND WINDS MAY GET GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE FAR NORTHWEST TEXAS
PANHANDLE. BUT FUELS WILL REMAIN OUT OF CRITICAL RANGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                95  66  93  68  93 /  10  10   5  10   5
BEAVER OK                  89  64  92  71  99 /  10  20  20  10   5
BOISE CITY OK              88  60  88  65  95 /   5  10   5   5   5
BORGER TX                  95  68  95  72  97 /   5  10   5  10   5
BOYS RANCH TX              95  65  93  69  95 /   5  10   5   5   5
CANYON TX                  96  66  93  67  93 /  10  10   5   5   5
CLARENDON TX               99  68  95  68  94 /  10  20   5  10   5
DALHART TX                 93  62  91  64  96 /   5  10   5   5   5
GUYMON OK                  90  62  91  68  98 /   5  20   5  10   5
HEREFORD TX                97  64  93  65  93 /   5  10   5   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                91  66  93  71  95 /  10  20  20  10   5
PAMPA TX                   93  65  93  67  94 /  10  20  10  10   5
SHAMROCK TX                97  70  94  69  94 /  10  20  10  10   5
WELLINGTON TX              99  73  96  72  95 /  10  20  10  10   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/15






000
FXUS64 KAMA 010725
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
225 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTH AT A FAIRLY GOOD CLIP THIS MORNING. FRONT
NOW LIES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE EASTERN
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY RIGHT WITH THE
FRONT...BUT THEN THEY WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS. HAVE
GENERALLY USED THE FASTEST GFS MODEL FOR WINDS TODAY...BUT EVEN HAD
TO SPEED UP THE FRONT A LITTLE OVER THE GFS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES AS RETURN FLOW OVER THE FRONT HELPS TO BRING
INSTABILITY BACK TO THE AREA. THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE
NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY HAVE THE BETTER SHOT OF RAIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE INSTABILITY COMBINES WITH BETTER DYNAMICS.

HAVE INSERTED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA FOR
TUESDAY AS MODELS INDICATE THAT THE OLD FRONT MAY STILL BE LINGERING
IN THIS AREA...ALSO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY POOL IN THIS AREA. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO PASS OVER THIS AREA ON TUESDAY.

WILL LEAVE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DRY AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE WHEN THE
NOSE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA WHICH
COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
NORTH.

ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WE HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO OUR EAST
AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS SHOULD BRING SUB
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BACK ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEK. THE LOWEST AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY GET DOWN
BELOW 20 PERCENT AND WINDS MAY GET GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE FAR NORTHWEST TEXAS
PANHANDLE. BUT FUELS WILL REMAIN OUT OF CRITICAL RANGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                95  66  93  68  93 /  10  10   5  10   5
BEAVER OK                  89  64  92  71  99 /  10  20  20  10   5
BOISE CITY OK              88  60  88  65  95 /   5  10   5   5   5
BORGER TX                  95  68  95  72  97 /   5  10   5  10   5
BOYS RANCH TX              95  65  93  69  95 /   5  10   5   5   5
CANYON TX                  96  66  93  67  93 /  10  10   5   5   5
CLARENDON TX               99  68  95  68  94 /  10  20   5  10   5
DALHART TX                 93  62  91  64  96 /   5  10   5   5   5
GUYMON OK                  90  62  91  68  98 /   5  20   5  10   5
HEREFORD TX                97  64  93  65  93 /   5  10   5   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                91  66  93  71  95 /  10  20  20  10   5
PAMPA TX                   93  65  93  67  94 /  10  20  10  10   5
SHAMROCK TX                97  70  94  69  94 /  10  20  10  10   5
WELLINGTON TX              99  73  96  72  95 /  10  20  10  10   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/15





000
FXUS64 KAMA 010443 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1143 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT IS EVIDENT ON LOCAL RADARS...AND IS ALMOST UPON KDHT.  WILL
CALL FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE AT KAMA AT 11Z MONDAY...WITH SURFACE WINDS
SHIFTING TO NORTH.  EXPECT COLD FRONT TO SLOW DOWN AFTER SUNRISE AND
STALL A BIT SOUTH OF KAMA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON MONDAY.  ISOLATED
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF
ALL THE TERMINALS...PRIMARILY ALONG AND NEAR THE DRYLINE AND COLD
FRONT NEAR THEIR POINT OF INTERSECTION.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT
24 HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

UPDATE...
STRIPPED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS EVENING BASED ON
PREVIOUS AFD REASONING. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTHWARD. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS COULD BRIEFLY GUST UP TO 25 KT
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE WHERE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE THE TIGHEST.
HOWEVER, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AFTER 12 AM, SO THESE BRIEF
NORTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL BE MOSTLY RESTRICTED TO LOCATIONS NORTH
OF A CLAYTON TO LIPSCOMB LINE. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

JACKSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
JUST ONE LOOK AT THE FLAT TOP CUMULUS OUTSIDE OUR OFFICE BACKS UP
WHAT OUR 0000 UTC RAOB DATA SHOW WITH A SUBSTANTIAL CAP CENTERED
AROUND 540 MB. DUE TO THIS CAP, IT`S HIGHLY UNLIKELY ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE GOING TO FORM AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE, ESPECIALLY
SINCE WE ARE BEYOND PEAK HEATING. ADDITIONALLY, SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION VALUES HAVE INCREASED BY
125 J/KG OVER THE LAST THREE HOURS, FURTHER LIMITING THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WHERE THERE IS A LITTLE MORE UPPER
SUPPORT TO THE NORTH, A FEW TOWERS TRIED TO DEVELOP IN BEAVER COUNTY
ABOUT AN HOUR AGO, BUT EVEN THESE QUICKLY COLLAPSED. THERE ARE A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, BUT THESE ARE BEING
GENERATED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT. IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, ODDS ARE THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

JACKSON

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AS A FRONT APPROACHES
AND PASSES EACH TAF SITE FROM THE NORTH, WINDS WILL SUBSTANTIALLY
DIMINISH. HAVE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF THE FRONT.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR VCTS AT KGUY 02Z-05Z, BUT CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION.

JACKSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A HOT AND DRY WORK WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO A MUCH MORE POTENTIALLY WET
PATTERN BY THE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THIS AFTERNOON...
RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES ARE BEING NOTED IN MANY AREAS WITH
AMARILLO ALREADY HITTING 103F. A DRYLINE FEATURE HAS SET UP FROM
ROUGHLY PERRYTON TO PAMPA. EAST OF THIS LINE...A FEW STORMS MAY FIRE
IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. GIVEN 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE AND 30-35 KTS BULK
SHEAR...ANY ISOLATED STORMS WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE AT BECOMING
SEVERE WITH SOME HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND A DOWNBURST OR
2.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THESE DAYS WILL BE HOT AND MAINLY DRY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH ANY WEAK WAVE THAT PASSES THROUGH. THE
TROPICS WILL NEED AN EYE KEPT ON THEM AS ANY SYSTEMS IN THE GULF OR
ERN PACIFIC COULD ADD EVEN MORE MOISTURE TO OUR PATTERN.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/13







000
FXUS64 KAMA 010443 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1143 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT IS EVIDENT ON LOCAL RADARS...AND IS ALMOST UPON KDHT.  WILL
CALL FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE AT KAMA AT 11Z MONDAY...WITH SURFACE WINDS
SHIFTING TO NORTH.  EXPECT COLD FRONT TO SLOW DOWN AFTER SUNRISE AND
STALL A BIT SOUTH OF KAMA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON MONDAY.  ISOLATED
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF
ALL THE TERMINALS...PRIMARILY ALONG AND NEAR THE DRYLINE AND COLD
FRONT NEAR THEIR POINT OF INTERSECTION.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT
24 HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

UPDATE...
STRIPPED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS EVENING BASED ON
PREVIOUS AFD REASONING. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTHWARD. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS COULD BRIEFLY GUST UP TO 25 KT
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE WHERE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE THE TIGHEST.
HOWEVER, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AFTER 12 AM, SO THESE BRIEF
NORTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL BE MOSTLY RESTRICTED TO LOCATIONS NORTH
OF A CLAYTON TO LIPSCOMB LINE. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

JACKSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
JUST ONE LOOK AT THE FLAT TOP CUMULUS OUTSIDE OUR OFFICE BACKS UP
WHAT OUR 0000 UTC RAOB DATA SHOW WITH A SUBSTANTIAL CAP CENTERED
AROUND 540 MB. DUE TO THIS CAP, IT`S HIGHLY UNLIKELY ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE GOING TO FORM AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE, ESPECIALLY
SINCE WE ARE BEYOND PEAK HEATING. ADDITIONALLY, SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION VALUES HAVE INCREASED BY
125 J/KG OVER THE LAST THREE HOURS, FURTHER LIMITING THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WHERE THERE IS A LITTLE MORE UPPER
SUPPORT TO THE NORTH, A FEW TOWERS TRIED TO DEVELOP IN BEAVER COUNTY
ABOUT AN HOUR AGO, BUT EVEN THESE QUICKLY COLLAPSED. THERE ARE A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, BUT THESE ARE BEING
GENERATED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT. IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, ODDS ARE THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

JACKSON

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AS A FRONT APPROACHES
AND PASSES EACH TAF SITE FROM THE NORTH, WINDS WILL SUBSTANTIALLY
DIMINISH. HAVE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF THE FRONT.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR VCTS AT KGUY 02Z-05Z, BUT CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION.

JACKSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A HOT AND DRY WORK WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO A MUCH MORE POTENTIALLY WET
PATTERN BY THE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THIS AFTERNOON...
RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES ARE BEING NOTED IN MANY AREAS WITH
AMARILLO ALREADY HITTING 103F. A DRYLINE FEATURE HAS SET UP FROM
ROUGHLY PERRYTON TO PAMPA. EAST OF THIS LINE...A FEW STORMS MAY FIRE
IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. GIVEN 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE AND 30-35 KTS BULK
SHEAR...ANY ISOLATED STORMS WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE AT BECOMING
SEVERE WITH SOME HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND A DOWNBURST OR
2.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THESE DAYS WILL BE HOT AND MAINLY DRY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH ANY WEAK WAVE THAT PASSES THROUGH. THE
TROPICS WILL NEED AN EYE KEPT ON THEM AS ANY SYSTEMS IN THE GULF OR
ERN PACIFIC COULD ADD EVEN MORE MOISTURE TO OUR PATTERN.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/13






000
FXUS64 KAMA 010155 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
855 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
STRIPPED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS EVENING BASED ON
PREVIOUS AFD REASONING. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTHWARD. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS COULD BRIEFLY GUST UP TO 25 KT
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE WHERE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE THE TIGHEST.
HOWEVER, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AFTER 12 AM, SO THESE BRIEF
NORTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL BE MOSTLY RESTRICTED TO LOCATIONS NORTH
OF A CLAYTON TO LIPSCOMB LINE. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

JACKSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
JUST ONE LOOK AT THE FLAT TOP CUMULUS OUTSIDE OUR OFFICE BACKS UP
WHAT OUR 0000 UTC RAOB DATA SHOW WITH A SUBSTANTIAL CAP CENTERED
AROUND 540 MB. DUE TO THIS CAP, IT`S HIGHLY UNLIKELY ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE GOING TO FORM AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE, ESPECIALLY
SINCE WE ARE BEYOND PEAK HEATING. ADDITIONALLY, SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION VALUES HAVE INCREASED BY
125 J/KG OVER THE LAST THREE HOURS, FURTHER LIMITING THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WHERE THERE IS A LITTLE MORE UPPER
SUPPORT TO THE NORTH, A FEW TOWERS TRIED TO DEVELOP IN BEAVER COUNTY
ABOUT AN HOUR AGO, BUT EVEN THESE QUICKLY COLLAPSED. THERE ARE A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, BUT THESE ARE BEING
GENERATED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT. IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, ODDS ARE THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

JACKSON

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AS A FRONT APPROACHES
AND PASSES EACH TAF SITE FROM THE NORTH, WINDS WILL SUBSTANTIALLY
DIMINISH. HAVE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF THE FRONT.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR VCTS AT KGUY 02Z-05Z, BUT CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION.

JACKSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A HOT AND DRY WORK WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO A MUCH MORE POTENTIALLY WET
PATTERN BY THE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THIS AFTERNOON...
RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES ARE BEING NOTED IN MANY AREAS WITH
AMARILLO ALREADY HITTING 103F. A DRYLINE FEATURE HAS SET UP FROM
ROUGHLY PERRYTON TO PAMPA. EAST OF THIS LINE...A FEW STORMS MAY FIRE
IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. GIVEN 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE AND 30-35 KTS BULK
SHEAR...ANY ISOLATED STORMS WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE AT BECOMING
SEVERE WITH SOME HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND A DOWNBURST OR
2.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THESE DAYS WILL BE HOT AND MAINLY DRY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH ANY WEAK WAVE THAT PASSES THROUGH. THE
TROPICS WILL NEED AN EYE KEPT ON THEM AS ANY SYSTEMS IN THE GULF OR
ERN PACIFIC COULD ADD EVEN MORE MOISTURE TO OUR PATTERN.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

JC/JJ






000
FXUS64 KAMA 010155 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
855 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
STRIPPED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS EVENING BASED ON
PREVIOUS AFD REASONING. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTHWARD. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS COULD BRIEFLY GUST UP TO 25 KT
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE WHERE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE THE TIGHEST.
HOWEVER, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AFTER 12 AM, SO THESE BRIEF
NORTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL BE MOSTLY RESTRICTED TO LOCATIONS NORTH
OF A CLAYTON TO LIPSCOMB LINE. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

JACKSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
JUST ONE LOOK AT THE FLAT TOP CUMULUS OUTSIDE OUR OFFICE BACKS UP
WHAT OUR 0000 UTC RAOB DATA SHOW WITH A SUBSTANTIAL CAP CENTERED
AROUND 540 MB. DUE TO THIS CAP, IT`S HIGHLY UNLIKELY ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE GOING TO FORM AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE, ESPECIALLY
SINCE WE ARE BEYOND PEAK HEATING. ADDITIONALLY, SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION VALUES HAVE INCREASED BY
125 J/KG OVER THE LAST THREE HOURS, FURTHER LIMITING THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WHERE THERE IS A LITTLE MORE UPPER
SUPPORT TO THE NORTH, A FEW TOWERS TRIED TO DEVELOP IN BEAVER COUNTY
ABOUT AN HOUR AGO, BUT EVEN THESE QUICKLY COLLAPSED. THERE ARE A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, BUT THESE ARE BEING
GENERATED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT. IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, ODDS ARE THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

JACKSON

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AS A FRONT APPROACHES
AND PASSES EACH TAF SITE FROM THE NORTH, WINDS WILL SUBSTANTIALLY
DIMINISH. HAVE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF THE FRONT.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR VCTS AT KGUY 02Z-05Z, BUT CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION.

JACKSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A HOT AND DRY WORK WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO A MUCH MORE POTENTIALLY WET
PATTERN BY THE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THIS AFTERNOON...
RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES ARE BEING NOTED IN MANY AREAS WITH
AMARILLO ALREADY HITTING 103F. A DRYLINE FEATURE HAS SET UP FROM
ROUGHLY PERRYTON TO PAMPA. EAST OF THIS LINE...A FEW STORMS MAY FIRE
IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. GIVEN 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE AND 30-35 KTS BULK
SHEAR...ANY ISOLATED STORMS WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE AT BECOMING
SEVERE WITH SOME HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND A DOWNBURST OR
2.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THESE DAYS WILL BE HOT AND MAINLY DRY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH ANY WEAK WAVE THAT PASSES THROUGH. THE
TROPICS WILL NEED AN EYE KEPT ON THEM AS ANY SYSTEMS IN THE GULF OR
ERN PACIFIC COULD ADD EVEN MORE MOISTURE TO OUR PATTERN.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

JC/JJ





000
FXUS64 KAMA 010155 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
855 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
STRIPPED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS EVENING BASED ON
PREVIOUS AFD REASONING. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTHWARD. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS COULD BRIEFLY GUST UP TO 25 KT
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE WHERE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE THE TIGHEST.
HOWEVER, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AFTER 12 AM, SO THESE BRIEF
NORTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL BE MOSTLY RESTRICTED TO LOCATIONS NORTH
OF A CLAYTON TO LIPSCOMB LINE. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

JACKSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
JUST ONE LOOK AT THE FLAT TOP CUMULUS OUTSIDE OUR OFFICE BACKS UP
WHAT OUR 0000 UTC RAOB DATA SHOW WITH A SUBSTANTIAL CAP CENTERED
AROUND 540 MB. DUE TO THIS CAP, IT`S HIGHLY UNLIKELY ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE GOING TO FORM AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE, ESPECIALLY
SINCE WE ARE BEYOND PEAK HEATING. ADDITIONALLY, SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION VALUES HAVE INCREASED BY
125 J/KG OVER THE LAST THREE HOURS, FURTHER LIMITING THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WHERE THERE IS A LITTLE MORE UPPER
SUPPORT TO THE NORTH, A FEW TOWERS TRIED TO DEVELOP IN BEAVER COUNTY
ABOUT AN HOUR AGO, BUT EVEN THESE QUICKLY COLLAPSED. THERE ARE A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, BUT THESE ARE BEING
GENERATED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT. IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, ODDS ARE THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

JACKSON

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AS A FRONT APPROACHES
AND PASSES EACH TAF SITE FROM THE NORTH, WINDS WILL SUBSTANTIALLY
DIMINISH. HAVE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF THE FRONT.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR VCTS AT KGUY 02Z-05Z, BUT CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION.

JACKSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A HOT AND DRY WORK WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO A MUCH MORE POTENTIALLY WET
PATTERN BY THE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THIS AFTERNOON...
RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES ARE BEING NOTED IN MANY AREAS WITH
AMARILLO ALREADY HITTING 103F. A DRYLINE FEATURE HAS SET UP FROM
ROUGHLY PERRYTON TO PAMPA. EAST OF THIS LINE...A FEW STORMS MAY FIRE
IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. GIVEN 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE AND 30-35 KTS BULK
SHEAR...ANY ISOLATED STORMS WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE AT BECOMING
SEVERE WITH SOME HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND A DOWNBURST OR
2.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THESE DAYS WILL BE HOT AND MAINLY DRY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH ANY WEAK WAVE THAT PASSES THROUGH. THE
TROPICS WILL NEED AN EYE KEPT ON THEM AS ANY SYSTEMS IN THE GULF OR
ERN PACIFIC COULD ADD EVEN MORE MOISTURE TO OUR PATTERN.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

JC/JJ





000
FXUS64 KAMA 010155 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
855 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
STRIPPED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS EVENING BASED ON
PREVIOUS AFD REASONING. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTHWARD. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS COULD BRIEFLY GUST UP TO 25 KT
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE WHERE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE THE TIGHEST.
HOWEVER, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AFTER 12 AM, SO THESE BRIEF
NORTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL BE MOSTLY RESTRICTED TO LOCATIONS NORTH
OF A CLAYTON TO LIPSCOMB LINE. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

JACKSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
JUST ONE LOOK AT THE FLAT TOP CUMULUS OUTSIDE OUR OFFICE BACKS UP
WHAT OUR 0000 UTC RAOB DATA SHOW WITH A SUBSTANTIAL CAP CENTERED
AROUND 540 MB. DUE TO THIS CAP, IT`S HIGHLY UNLIKELY ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE GOING TO FORM AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE, ESPECIALLY
SINCE WE ARE BEYOND PEAK HEATING. ADDITIONALLY, SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION VALUES HAVE INCREASED BY
125 J/KG OVER THE LAST THREE HOURS, FURTHER LIMITING THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WHERE THERE IS A LITTLE MORE UPPER
SUPPORT TO THE NORTH, A FEW TOWERS TRIED TO DEVELOP IN BEAVER COUNTY
ABOUT AN HOUR AGO, BUT EVEN THESE QUICKLY COLLAPSED. THERE ARE A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, BUT THESE ARE BEING
GENERATED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT. IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, ODDS ARE THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

JACKSON

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AS A FRONT APPROACHES
AND PASSES EACH TAF SITE FROM THE NORTH, WINDS WILL SUBSTANTIALLY
DIMINISH. HAVE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF THE FRONT.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR VCTS AT KGUY 02Z-05Z, BUT CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION.

JACKSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A HOT AND DRY WORK WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO A MUCH MORE POTENTIALLY WET
PATTERN BY THE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THIS AFTERNOON...
RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES ARE BEING NOTED IN MANY AREAS WITH
AMARILLO ALREADY HITTING 103F. A DRYLINE FEATURE HAS SET UP FROM
ROUGHLY PERRYTON TO PAMPA. EAST OF THIS LINE...A FEW STORMS MAY FIRE
IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. GIVEN 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE AND 30-35 KTS BULK
SHEAR...ANY ISOLATED STORMS WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE AT BECOMING
SEVERE WITH SOME HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND A DOWNBURST OR
2.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THESE DAYS WILL BE HOT AND MAINLY DRY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH ANY WEAK WAVE THAT PASSES THROUGH. THE
TROPICS WILL NEED AN EYE KEPT ON THEM AS ANY SYSTEMS IN THE GULF OR
ERN PACIFIC COULD ADD EVEN MORE MOISTURE TO OUR PATTERN.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

JC/JJ






000
FXUS64 KAMA 312348 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
648 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
JUST ONE LOOK AT THE FLAT TOP CUMULUS OUTSIDE OUR OFFICE BACKS UP
WHAT OUR 0000 UTC RAOB DATA SHOW WITH A SUBSTANTIAL CAP CENTERED
AROUND 540 MB. DUE TO THIS CAP, IT`S HIGHLY UNLIKELY ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE GOING TO FORM AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE, ESPECIALLY
SINCE WE ARE BEYOND PEAK HEATING. ADDITIONALLY, SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION VALUES HAVE INCREASED BY
125 J/KG OVER THE LAST THREE HOURS, FURTHER LIMITING THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WHERE THERE IS A LITTLE MORE UPPER
SUPPORT TO THE NORTH, A FEW TOWERS TRIED TO DEVELOP IN BEAVER COUNTY
ABOUT AN HOUR AGO, BUT EVEN THESE QUICKLY COLLAPSED. THERE ARE A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, BUT THESE ARE BEING
GENERATED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT. IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, ODDS ARE THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

JACKSON

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AS A FRONT APPROACHES
AND PASSES EACH TAF SITE FROM THE NORTH, WINDS WILL SUBSTANTIALLY
DIMINISH. HAVE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF THE FRONT.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR VCTS AT KGUY 02Z-05Z, BUT CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION.

JACKSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A HOT AND DRY WORK WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO A MUCH MORE POTENTIALLY WET
PATTERN BY THE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THIS AFTERNOON...
RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES ARE BEING NOTED IN MANY AREAS WITH
AMARILLO ALREADY HITTING 103F. A DRYLINE FEATURE HAS SET UP FROM
ROUGHLY PERRYTON TO PAMPA. EAST OF THIS LINE...A FEW STORMS MAY FIRE
IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. GIVEN 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE AND 30-35 KTS BULK
SHEAR...ANY ISOLATED STORMS WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE AT BECOMING
SEVERE WITH SOME HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND A DOWNBURST OR
2.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THESE DAYS WILL BE HOT AND MAINLY DRY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH ANY WEAK WAVE THAT PASSES THROUGH. THE
TROPICS WILL NEED AN EYE KEPT ON THEM AS ANY SYSTEMS IN THE GULF OR
ERN PACIFIC COULD ADD EVEN MORE MOISTURE TO OUR PATTERN.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

JC/JJ







000
FXUS64 KAMA 312348 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
648 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
JUST ONE LOOK AT THE FLAT TOP CUMULUS OUTSIDE OUR OFFICE BACKS UP
WHAT OUR 0000 UTC RAOB DATA SHOW WITH A SUBSTANTIAL CAP CENTERED
AROUND 540 MB. DUE TO THIS CAP, IT`S HIGHLY UNLIKELY ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE GOING TO FORM AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE, ESPECIALLY
SINCE WE ARE BEYOND PEAK HEATING. ADDITIONALLY, SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION VALUES HAVE INCREASED BY
125 J/KG OVER THE LAST THREE HOURS, FURTHER LIMITING THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WHERE THERE IS A LITTLE MORE UPPER
SUPPORT TO THE NORTH, A FEW TOWERS TRIED TO DEVELOP IN BEAVER COUNTY
ABOUT AN HOUR AGO, BUT EVEN THESE QUICKLY COLLAPSED. THERE ARE A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, BUT THESE ARE BEING
GENERATED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT. IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, ODDS ARE THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

JACKSON

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AS A FRONT APPROACHES
AND PASSES EACH TAF SITE FROM THE NORTH, WINDS WILL SUBSTANTIALLY
DIMINISH. HAVE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF THE FRONT.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR VCTS AT KGUY 02Z-05Z, BUT CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION.

JACKSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A HOT AND DRY WORK WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO A MUCH MORE POTENTIALLY WET
PATTERN BY THE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THIS AFTERNOON...
RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES ARE BEING NOTED IN MANY AREAS WITH
AMARILLO ALREADY HITTING 103F. A DRYLINE FEATURE HAS SET UP FROM
ROUGHLY PERRYTON TO PAMPA. EAST OF THIS LINE...A FEW STORMS MAY FIRE
IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. GIVEN 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE AND 30-35 KTS BULK
SHEAR...ANY ISOLATED STORMS WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE AT BECOMING
SEVERE WITH SOME HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND A DOWNBURST OR
2.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THESE DAYS WILL BE HOT AND MAINLY DRY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH ANY WEAK WAVE THAT PASSES THROUGH. THE
TROPICS WILL NEED AN EYE KEPT ON THEM AS ANY SYSTEMS IN THE GULF OR
ERN PACIFIC COULD ADD EVEN MORE MOISTURE TO OUR PATTERN.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

JC/JJ








000
FXUS64 KAMA 312006
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
306 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A HOT AND DRY WORK WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO A MUCH MORE POTENTIALLY WET
PATTERN BY THE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THIS AFTERNOON...
RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES ARE BEING NOTED IN MANY AREAS WITH
AMARILLO ALREADY HITTING 103F. A DRYLINE FEATURE HAS SET UP FROM
ROUGHLY PERRYTON TO PAMPA. EAST OF THIS LINE...A FEW STORMS MAY FIRE
IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. GIVEN 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE AND 30-35 KTS BULK
SHEAR...ANY ISOLATED STORMS WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE AT BECOMING
SEVERE WITH SOME HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND A DOWNBURST OR
2.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THESE DAYS WILL BE HOT AND MAINLY DRY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH ANY WEAK WAVE THAT PASSES THROUGH. THE
TROPICS WILL NEED AN EYE KEPT ON THEM AS ANY SYSTEMS IN THE GULF OR
ERN PACIFIC COULD ADD EVEN MORE MOISTURE TO OUR PATTERN.

SIMPSON
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                65  95  63  91  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
BEAVER OK                  66  92  67  91  69 /  20  10  20  10  10
BOISE CITY OK              62  90  60  88  64 /   5   5  10   5   5
BORGER TX                  69  97  68  93  74 /  10  10  10  10  10
BOYS RANCH TX              64  96  62  91  70 /   5   5  10  10   5
CANYON TX                  65  95  64  91  67 /   5  10  10  10   5
CLARENDON TX               69  96  69  93  70 /  20  20  20  10  10
DALHART TX                 60  94  61  90  64 /   5   5  10   5   5
GUYMON OK                  63  92  63  92  66 /  10   5  20  10  10
HEREFORD TX                65  96  63  92  65 /   5   5  10  10   5
LIPSCOMB TX                70  93  67  91  71 /  20  20  20  10  10
PAMPA TX                   69  94  65  91  71 /  20  10  20  10  10
SHAMROCK TX                71  96  68  94  71 /  20  20  20  10  10
WELLINGTON TX              72  97  71  97  72 /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

20/09






000
FXUS64 KAMA 312006
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
306 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A HOT AND DRY WORK WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO A MUCH MORE POTENTIALLY WET
PATTERN BY THE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THIS AFTERNOON...
RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES ARE BEING NOTED IN MANY AREAS WITH
AMARILLO ALREADY HITTING 103F. A DRYLINE FEATURE HAS SET UP FROM
ROUGHLY PERRYTON TO PAMPA. EAST OF THIS LINE...A FEW STORMS MAY FIRE
IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. GIVEN 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE AND 30-35 KTS BULK
SHEAR...ANY ISOLATED STORMS WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE AT BECOMING
SEVERE WITH SOME HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND A DOWNBURST OR
2.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THESE DAYS WILL BE HOT AND MAINLY DRY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH ANY WEAK WAVE THAT PASSES THROUGH. THE
TROPICS WILL NEED AN EYE KEPT ON THEM AS ANY SYSTEMS IN THE GULF OR
ERN PACIFIC COULD ADD EVEN MORE MOISTURE TO OUR PATTERN.

SIMPSON
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                65  95  63  91  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
BEAVER OK                  66  92  67  91  69 /  20  10  20  10  10
BOISE CITY OK              62  90  60  88  64 /   5   5  10   5   5
BORGER TX                  69  97  68  93  74 /  10  10  10  10  10
BOYS RANCH TX              64  96  62  91  70 /   5   5  10  10   5
CANYON TX                  65  95  64  91  67 /   5  10  10  10   5
CLARENDON TX               69  96  69  93  70 /  20  20  20  10  10
DALHART TX                 60  94  61  90  64 /   5   5  10   5   5
GUYMON OK                  63  92  63  92  66 /  10   5  20  10  10
HEREFORD TX                65  96  63  92  65 /   5   5  10  10   5
LIPSCOMB TX                70  93  67  91  71 /  20  20  20  10  10
PAMPA TX                   69  94  65  91  71 /  20  10  20  10  10
SHAMROCK TX                71  96  68  94  71 /  20  20  20  10  10
WELLINGTON TX              72  97  71  97  72 /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

20/09







000
FXUS64 KAMA 311724 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1224 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THEY DECREASE
THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA CAUSING WINDS TO
SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH AT KDHT/KGUY OVERNIGHT.

MOULTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING INTO THE 20 TO 25
KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME THIS EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE DHT AND GUY TAF SITES LATE IN THIS
FORECAST...SO HAVE TURNED THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AT THESE
SITES AFTER 09Z. SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST INTO
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND THE WESTERN PANHANDLES BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE TROUGH MAY SHARPEN UP INTO A DRYLINE BY THIS EVENING AND
MIX EAST TO THE CAPROCK BY 00Z TO 03Z MONDAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 21Z TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THE CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING AND MAY LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT OURS TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT PUSH SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND EXTREME NORTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE...NEAR THE
CANADIAN RIVER VALLEY OR SO...BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON LABOR DAY.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS LABOR DAY DUE TO THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES. DESPITE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY...ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS STILL EXPECTED EARLY THIS WEEK.

AN UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD IN OVER WEST TEXAS AND THE PANHANDLES BY MID
WEEK BRINGING DRIER AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS TO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOULD SPREAD EAST INTO PORTIONS OF THE
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES BY LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. CONVECTION COULD PROPAGATE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST QUARTER OR THIRD OF THE PANHANDLES BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
LATE NEXT WEEKEND. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

19/09






000
FXUS64 KAMA 311724 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1224 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THEY DECREASE
THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA CAUSING WINDS TO
SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH AT KDHT/KGUY OVERNIGHT.

MOULTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING INTO THE 20 TO 25
KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME THIS EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE DHT AND GUY TAF SITES LATE IN THIS
FORECAST...SO HAVE TURNED THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AT THESE
SITES AFTER 09Z. SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST INTO
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND THE WESTERN PANHANDLES BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE TROUGH MAY SHARPEN UP INTO A DRYLINE BY THIS EVENING AND
MIX EAST TO THE CAPROCK BY 00Z TO 03Z MONDAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 21Z TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THE CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING AND MAY LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT OURS TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT PUSH SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND EXTREME NORTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE...NEAR THE
CANADIAN RIVER VALLEY OR SO...BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON LABOR DAY.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS LABOR DAY DUE TO THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES. DESPITE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY...ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS STILL EXPECTED EARLY THIS WEEK.

AN UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD IN OVER WEST TEXAS AND THE PANHANDLES BY MID
WEEK BRINGING DRIER AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS TO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOULD SPREAD EAST INTO PORTIONS OF THE
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES BY LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. CONVECTION COULD PROPAGATE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST QUARTER OR THIRD OF THE PANHANDLES BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
LATE NEXT WEEKEND. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

19/09







000
FXUS64 KAMA 311046 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
546 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING INTO THE 20 TO 25
KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME THIS EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE DHT AND GUY TAF SITES LATE IN THIS
FORECAST...SO HAVE TURNED THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AT THESE
SITES AFTER 09Z. SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST INTO
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND THE WESTERN PANHANDLES BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE TROUGH MAY SHARPEN UP INTO A DRYLINE BY THIS EVENING AND
MIX EAST TO THE CAPROCK BY 00Z TO 03Z MONDAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 21Z TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THE CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING AND MAY LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT OURS TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT PUSH SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND EXTREME NORTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE...NEAR THE
CANADIAN RIVER VALLEY OR SO...BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON LABOR DAY.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS LABOR DAY DUE TO THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES. DESPITE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY...ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS STILL EXPECTED EARLY THIS WEEK.

AN UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD IN OVER WEST TEXAS AND THE PANHANDLES BY MID
WEEK BRINGING DRIER AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS TO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR WENDESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOULD SPREAD EAST INTO PORTIONS OF THE
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES BY LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. CONVECTION COULD PROPAGATE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST QUARTER OR THIRD OF THE PANHANDLES BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
LATE NEXT WEEKEND. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/11







000
FXUS64 KAMA 310857
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
357 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST INTO
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND THE WESTERN PANHANDLES BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE TROUGH MAY SHARPEN UP INTO A DRYLINE BY THIS EVENING AND
MIX EAST TO THE CAPROCK BY 00Z TO 03Z MONDAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 21Z TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THE CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING AND MAY LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT OURS TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT PUSH SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND EXTREME NORTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE...NEAR THE
CANADIAN RIVER VALLEY OR SO...BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON LABOR DAY.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS LABOR DAY DUE TO THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES. DESPITE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY...ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS STILL EXPECTED EARLY THIS WEEK.

AN UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD IN OVER WEST TEXAS AND THE PANHANDLES BY MID
WEEK BRINGING DRIER AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS TO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR WENDESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOULD SPREAD EAST INTO PORTIONS OF THE
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES BY LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. CONVECTION COULD PROPAGATE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST QUARTER OR THIRD OF THE PANHANDLES BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
LATE NEXT WEEKEND. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                97  65  95  63  91 /  10  10  10  10  10
BEAVER OK                 101  66  92  67  91 /  20  20  10  20  10
BOISE CITY OK              98  62  90  60  88 /   5   5   5  10   5
BORGER TX                 100  69  97  68  93 /  10  10  10  10  10
BOYS RANCH TX             100  64  96  62  91 /   5   5   5  10  10
CANYON TX                  97  65  95  64  91 /   5   5  10  10  10
CLARENDON TX               98  69  96  69  93 /  20  20  20  20  10
DALHART TX                100  60  94  61  90 /   5   5   5  10   5
GUYMON OK                 101  63  92  63  92 /  10  10   5  20  10
HEREFORD TX                97  65  96  63  92 /   5   5   5  10  10
LIPSCOMB TX                97  70  93  67  91 /  20  20  20  20  10
PAMPA TX                   96  69  94  65  91 /  20  20  10  20  10
SHAMROCK TX                98  71  96  68  94 /  20  20  20  20  10
WELLINGTON TX              99  72  97  71  97 /  20  20  20  20  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/11






000
FXUS64 KAMA 310857
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
357 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST INTO
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND THE WESTERN PANHANDLES BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE TROUGH MAY SHARPEN UP INTO A DRYLINE BY THIS EVENING AND
MIX EAST TO THE CAPROCK BY 00Z TO 03Z MONDAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 21Z TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THE CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING AND MAY LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT OURS TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT PUSH SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND EXTREME NORTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE...NEAR THE
CANADIAN RIVER VALLEY OR SO...BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON LABOR DAY.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS LABOR DAY DUE TO THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES. DESPITE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY...ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS STILL EXPECTED EARLY THIS WEEK.

AN UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD IN OVER WEST TEXAS AND THE PANHANDLES BY MID
WEEK BRINGING DRIER AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS TO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR WENDESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOULD SPREAD EAST INTO PORTIONS OF THE
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES BY LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. CONVECTION COULD PROPAGATE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST QUARTER OR THIRD OF THE PANHANDLES BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
LATE NEXT WEEKEND. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                97  65  95  63  91 /  10  10  10  10  10
BEAVER OK                 101  66  92  67  91 /  20  20  10  20  10
BOISE CITY OK              98  62  90  60  88 /   5   5   5  10   5
BORGER TX                 100  69  97  68  93 /  10  10  10  10  10
BOYS RANCH TX             100  64  96  62  91 /   5   5   5  10  10
CANYON TX                  97  65  95  64  91 /   5   5  10  10  10
CLARENDON TX               98  69  96  69  93 /  20  20  20  20  10
DALHART TX                100  60  94  61  90 /   5   5   5  10   5
GUYMON OK                 101  63  92  63  92 /  10  10   5  20  10
HEREFORD TX                97  65  96  63  92 /   5   5   5  10  10
LIPSCOMB TX                97  70  93  67  91 /  20  20  20  20  10
PAMPA TX                   96  69  94  65  91 /  20  20  10  20  10
SHAMROCK TX                98  71  96  68  94 /  20  20  20  20  10
WELLINGTON TX              99  72  97  71  97 /  20  20  20  20  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/11







000
FXUS64 KAMA 310424 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1124 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 15 KT OVERNIGHT WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS.  ON SUNDAY...DEEPENING SURFACE TROF WILL CAUSE
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS TO GUST TO AROUND 30 KT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

EXPECT THAT DRYLINE WILL TAKE SHAPE DURING THE DAY...AND WILL SHARPEN
ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY.  EXPECT THAT
DRYLINE WILL LIE EAST OF ALL TERMINALS BY 21Z SUNDAY...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG IT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ONCE FORMED...THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST...AWAY FROM TERMINALS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

A 45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, AND COULD LEAD TO LLWS
AND KDHT. HOWEVER, DID NOT MENTION AS THE CORE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET
MAY REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE TERMINAL. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH AT KAMA AND KGUY TO PRECLUDE THIS THREAT.

GUSTY SSW WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 15Z.

ANY ISOLATED TSRA THAT MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL STAY WELL
EAST OF THE TERMINALS.

JACKSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HOT TEMPERATURES AND LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE AREA
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AS TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S. EXPECT THIS
ISOLATED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...DRIVEN BY DIURNAL
HEATING ALONG WITH SOME WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
WESTERN TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING UPPER JET AND SOME WEAK LEAD MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY. COULD SEE A FEW PULSE STRONG STORMS THROUGH
THE EVENING GIVEN 0-1KM MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG OVER PARTS OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR /25 KTS OR LESS/ WILL PRECLUDE
ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE BRIEF WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 50 MPH DUE TO THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS MIXED OUT...BUT SOME SMALL HAIL CAN/T BE RULED OUT. THINK MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE WEAK DIVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH/JET AND SOME H85 THETA-E ADVECTION
ALONG THE LLJ AXIS. SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL STAY UP
OVERNIGHT...HELPING KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER SOUTHEAST CO/SOUTHWEST KS ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH EJECTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE DRYLINE TO
SHARPEN OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...AND IT MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
A COUPLE OF ISOLATED STORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BETTER
DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...SO IT/S STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER
STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AND PERHAPS SOME WEAK GLANCING UPPER FORCING
TO THE NORTH WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE ANY STORMS. IF STORMS ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP...STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILES PROMOTING DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS IN COMBINATION WITH MLCAPES UP TO AROUND 2000
J/KG WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO HEAT UP ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
WEST OF THE DRYLINE WHERE H85 TEMPS ECLIPSING 30C WILL SUPPORT
SOME TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS...IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT NOW LOOKS TO LINGER IN THE AREA ON MONDAY...AND MAY BISECT
A DIFFUSE DRYLINE ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. THUS A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SIMILAR TO TOMORROW...IF A STORM IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT. SLIGHTLY
BETTER THUNDERSTORM PROSPECTS MAY DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE
NORTHEAST PANHANDLES AS THE LLJ IMPINGES ON THE FRONTAL ZONE.

THE FRONT RETREATS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY...AND THE UPPER
RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD BACK NORTH AND WEST. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK. THE RESULTANT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MAY PULL IN ENOUGH
MONSOON MOISTURE TO BRING A RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES TO THE NORTHWEST
PANHANDLES LATE NEXT WEEK. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT A COLD FRONT MAY
APPROACH THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES LATE IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER SUMMER
HEAT LOOKS TO HOLD ON THROUGH AT LEAST LATE NEXT WEEK DESPITE THE
CALENDAR ROLLING OVER TO SEPTEMBER.

KB

FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY...IN THE PRESENCE OF BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS /15-25 MPH AT THE 20-FOOT LEVEL/. WHILE THESE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...FUELS
STILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNSUPPORTIVE.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/13







000
FXUS64 KAMA 310424 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1124 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 15 KT OVERNIGHT WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS.  ON SUNDAY...DEEPENING SURFACE TROF WILL CAUSE
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS TO GUST TO AROUND 30 KT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

EXPECT THAT DRYLINE WILL TAKE SHAPE DURING THE DAY...AND WILL SHARPEN
ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY.  EXPECT THAT
DRYLINE WILL LIE EAST OF ALL TERMINALS BY 21Z SUNDAY...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG IT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ONCE FORMED...THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST...AWAY FROM TERMINALS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

A 45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, AND COULD LEAD TO LLWS
AND KDHT. HOWEVER, DID NOT MENTION AS THE CORE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET
MAY REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE TERMINAL. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH AT KAMA AND KGUY TO PRECLUDE THIS THREAT.

GUSTY SSW WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 15Z.

ANY ISOLATED TSRA THAT MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL STAY WELL
EAST OF THE TERMINALS.

JACKSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HOT TEMPERATURES AND LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE AREA
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AS TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S. EXPECT THIS
ISOLATED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...DRIVEN BY DIURNAL
HEATING ALONG WITH SOME WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
WESTERN TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING UPPER JET AND SOME WEAK LEAD MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY. COULD SEE A FEW PULSE STRONG STORMS THROUGH
THE EVENING GIVEN 0-1KM MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG OVER PARTS OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR /25 KTS OR LESS/ WILL PRECLUDE
ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE BRIEF WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 50 MPH DUE TO THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS MIXED OUT...BUT SOME SMALL HAIL CAN/T BE RULED OUT. THINK MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE WEAK DIVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH/JET AND SOME H85 THETA-E ADVECTION
ALONG THE LLJ AXIS. SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL STAY UP
OVERNIGHT...HELPING KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER SOUTHEAST CO/SOUTHWEST KS ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH EJECTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE DRYLINE TO
SHARPEN OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...AND IT MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
A COUPLE OF ISOLATED STORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BETTER
DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...SO IT/S STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER
STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AND PERHAPS SOME WEAK GLANCING UPPER FORCING
TO THE NORTH WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE ANY STORMS. IF STORMS ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP...STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILES PROMOTING DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS IN COMBINATION WITH MLCAPES UP TO AROUND 2000
J/KG WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO HEAT UP ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
WEST OF THE DRYLINE WHERE H85 TEMPS ECLIPSING 30C WILL SUPPORT
SOME TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS...IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT NOW LOOKS TO LINGER IN THE AREA ON MONDAY...AND MAY BISECT
A DIFFUSE DRYLINE ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. THUS A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SIMILAR TO TOMORROW...IF A STORM IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT. SLIGHTLY
BETTER THUNDERSTORM PROSPECTS MAY DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE
NORTHEAST PANHANDLES AS THE LLJ IMPINGES ON THE FRONTAL ZONE.

THE FRONT RETREATS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY...AND THE UPPER
RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD BACK NORTH AND WEST. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK. THE RESULTANT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MAY PULL IN ENOUGH
MONSOON MOISTURE TO BRING A RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES TO THE NORTHWEST
PANHANDLES LATE NEXT WEEK. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT A COLD FRONT MAY
APPROACH THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES LATE IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER SUMMER
HEAT LOOKS TO HOLD ON THROUGH AT LEAST LATE NEXT WEEK DESPITE THE
CALENDAR ROLLING OVER TO SEPTEMBER.

KB

FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY...IN THE PRESENCE OF BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS /15-25 MPH AT THE 20-FOOT LEVEL/. WHILE THESE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...FUELS
STILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNSUPPORTIVE.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/13






000
FXUS64 KAMA 302335 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
635 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

A 45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, AND COULD LEAD TO LLWS
AND KDHT. HOWEVER, DID NOT MENTION AS THE CORE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET
MAY REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE TERMINAL. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH AT KAMA AND KGUY TO PRECLUDE THIS THREAT.

GUSTY SSW WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 15Z.

ANY ISOLATED TSRA THAT MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL STAY WELL
EAST OF THE TERMINALS.

JACKSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HOT TEMPERATURES AND LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE AREA
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AS TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S. EXPECT THIS
ISOLATED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...DRIVEN BY DIURNAL
HEATING ALONG WITH SOME WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
WESTERN TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING UPPER JET AND SOME WEAK LEAD MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY. COULD SEE A FEW PULSE STRONG STORMS THROUGH
THE EVENING GIVEN 0-1KM MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG OVER PARTS OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR /25 KTS OR LESS/ WILL PRECLUDE
ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE BRIEF WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 50 MPH DUE TO THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS MIXED OUT...BUT SOME SMALL HAIL CAN/T BE RULED OUT. THINK MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE WEAK DIVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH/JET AND SOME H85 THETA-E ADVECTION
ALONG THE LLJ AXIS. SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL STAY UP
OVERNIGHT...HELPING KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER SOUTHEAST CO/SOUTHWEST KS ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH EJECTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE DRYLINE TO
SHARPEN OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...AND IT MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
A COUPLE OF ISOLATED STORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BETTER
DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...SO IT/S STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER
STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AND PERHAPS SOME WEAK GLANCING UPPER FORCING
TO THE NORTH WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE ANY STORMS. IF STORMS ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP...STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILES PROMOTING DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS IN COMBINATION WITH MLCAPES UP TO AROUND 2000
J/KG WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO HEAT UP ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
WEST OF THE DRYLINE WHERE H85 TEMPS ECLIPSING 30C WILL SUPPORT
SOME TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS...IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT NOW LOOKS TO LINGER IN THE AREA ON MONDAY...AND MAY BISECT
A DIFFUSE DRYLINE ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. THUS A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SIMILAR TO TOMORROW...IF A STORM IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT. SLIGHTLY
BETTER THUNDERSTORM PROSPECTS MAY DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE
NORTHEAST PANHANDLES AS THE LLJ IMPINGES ON THE FRONTAL ZONE.

THE FRONT RETREATS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY...AND THE UPPER
RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD BACK NORTH AND WEST. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK. THE RESULTANT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MAY PULL IN ENOUGH
MONSOON MOISTURE TO BRING A RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES TO THE NORTHWEST
PANHANDLES LATE NEXT WEEK. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT A COLD FRONT MAY
APPROACH THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES LATE IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER SUMMER
HEAT LOOKS TO HOLD ON THROUGH AT LEAST LATE NEXT WEEK DESPITE THE
CALENDAR ROLLING OVER TO SEPTEMBER.

KB

FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY...IN THE PRESENCE OF BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS /15-25 MPH AT THE 20-FOOT LEVEL/. WHILE THESE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...FUELS
STILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNSUPPORTIVE.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

JC/JJ







000
FXUS64 KAMA 302335 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
635 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

A 45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, AND COULD LEAD TO LLWS
AND KDHT. HOWEVER, DID NOT MENTION AS THE CORE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET
MAY REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE TERMINAL. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH AT KAMA AND KGUY TO PRECLUDE THIS THREAT.

GUSTY SSW WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 15Z.

ANY ISOLATED TSRA THAT MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL STAY WELL
EAST OF THE TERMINALS.

JACKSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HOT TEMPERATURES AND LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE AREA
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AS TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S. EXPECT THIS
ISOLATED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...DRIVEN BY DIURNAL
HEATING ALONG WITH SOME WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
WESTERN TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING UPPER JET AND SOME WEAK LEAD MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY. COULD SEE A FEW PULSE STRONG STORMS THROUGH
THE EVENING GIVEN 0-1KM MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG OVER PARTS OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR /25 KTS OR LESS/ WILL PRECLUDE
ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE BRIEF WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 50 MPH DUE TO THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS MIXED OUT...BUT SOME SMALL HAIL CAN/T BE RULED OUT. THINK MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE WEAK DIVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH/JET AND SOME H85 THETA-E ADVECTION
ALONG THE LLJ AXIS. SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL STAY UP
OVERNIGHT...HELPING KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER SOUTHEAST CO/SOUTHWEST KS ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH EJECTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE DRYLINE TO
SHARPEN OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...AND IT MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
A COUPLE OF ISOLATED STORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BETTER
DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...SO IT/S STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER
STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AND PERHAPS SOME WEAK GLANCING UPPER FORCING
TO THE NORTH WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE ANY STORMS. IF STORMS ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP...STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILES PROMOTING DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS IN COMBINATION WITH MLCAPES UP TO AROUND 2000
J/KG WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO HEAT UP ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
WEST OF THE DRYLINE WHERE H85 TEMPS ECLIPSING 30C WILL SUPPORT
SOME TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS...IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT NOW LOOKS TO LINGER IN THE AREA ON MONDAY...AND MAY BISECT
A DIFFUSE DRYLINE ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. THUS A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SIMILAR TO TOMORROW...IF A STORM IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT. SLIGHTLY
BETTER THUNDERSTORM PROSPECTS MAY DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE
NORTHEAST PANHANDLES AS THE LLJ IMPINGES ON THE FRONTAL ZONE.

THE FRONT RETREATS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY...AND THE UPPER
RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD BACK NORTH AND WEST. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK. THE RESULTANT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MAY PULL IN ENOUGH
MONSOON MOISTURE TO BRING A RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES TO THE NORTHWEST
PANHANDLES LATE NEXT WEEK. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT A COLD FRONT MAY
APPROACH THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES LATE IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER SUMMER
HEAT LOOKS TO HOLD ON THROUGH AT LEAST LATE NEXT WEEK DESPITE THE
CALENDAR ROLLING OVER TO SEPTEMBER.

KB

FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY...IN THE PRESENCE OF BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS /15-25 MPH AT THE 20-FOOT LEVEL/. WHILE THESE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...FUELS
STILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNSUPPORTIVE.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

JC/JJ






000
FXUS64 KAMA 302102
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
402 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HOT TEMPERATURES AND LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE AREA
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AS TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S. EXPECT THIS
ISOLATED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...DRIVEN BY DIURNAL
HEATING ALONG WITH SOME WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
WESTERN TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING UPPER JET AND SOME WEAK LEAD MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY. COULD SEE A FEW PULSE STRONG STORMS THROUGH
THE EVENING GIVEN 0-1KM MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG OVER PARTS OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR /25 KTS OR LESS/ WILL PRECLUDE
ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE BRIEF WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 50 MPH DUE TO THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS MIXED OUT...BUT SOME SMALL HAIL CAN/T BE RULED OUT. THINK MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE WEAK DIVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH/JET AND SOME H85 THETA-E ADVECTION
ALONG THE LLJ AXIS. SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL STAY UP
OVERNIGHT...HELPING KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER SOUTHEAST CO/SOUTHWEST KS ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH EJECTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE DRYLINE TO
SHARPEN OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...AND IT MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
A COUPLE OF ISOLATED STORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BETTER
DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...SO IT/S STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER
STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AND PERHAPS SOME WEAK GLANCING UPPER FORCING
TO THE NORTH WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE ANY STORMS. IF STORMS ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP...STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILES PROMOTING DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS IN COMBINATION WITH MLCAPES UP TO AROUND 2000
J/KG WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO HEAT UP ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
WEST OF THE DRYLINE WHERE H85 TEMPS ECLIPSING 30C WILL SUPPORT
SOME TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS...IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT NOW LOOKS TO LINGER IN THE AREA ON MONDAY...AND MAY BISECT
A DIFFUSE DRYLINE ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. THUS A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SIMILAR TO TOMORROW...IF A STORM IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT. SLIGHTLY
BETTER THUNDERSTORM PROSPECTS MAY DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE
NORTHEAST PANHANDLES AS THE LLJ IMPINGES ON THE FRONTAL ZONE.

THE FRONT RETREATS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY...AND THE UPPER
RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD BACK NORTH AND WEST. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK. THE RESULTANT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MAY PULL IN ENOUGH
MONSOON MOISTURE TO BRING A RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES TO THE NORTHWEST
PANHANDLES LATE NEXT WEEK. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT A COLD FRONT MAY
APPROACH THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES LATE IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER SUMMER
HEAT LOOKS TO HOLD ON THROUGH AT LEAST LATE NEXT WEEK DESPITE THE
CALENDAR ROLLING OVER TO SEPTEMBER.

KB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY...IN THE PRESENCE OF BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS /15-25 MPH AT THE 20-FOOT LEVEL/. WHILE THESE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...FUELS
STILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNSUPPORTIVE.

KB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                68  97  66  96  66 /  20  10  10  10  10
BEAVER OK                  68 101  67  92  68 /  20  20  20  10  20
BOISE CITY OK              63  98  60  92  61 /  20   5   5   5  10
BORGER TX                  70 100  70  97  70 /  20  10  10  10  10
BOYS RANCH TX              68 100  65  96  64 /  20   5   5   5  10
CANYON TX                  66  97  65  96  67 /  20   5   5  10  10
CLARENDON TX               67  97  69  96  71 /  20  20  20  20  20
DALHART TX                 63  98  59  93  62 /  20   5   5   5  10
GUYMON OK                  65 101  63  94  63 /  20  10  10   5  20
HEREFORD TX                66  97  64  96  65 /  20   5   5   5  10
LIPSCOMB TX                71  98  68  92  68 /  20  20  20  10  20
PAMPA TX                   67  96  66  94  67 /  20  20  20  10  20
SHAMROCK TX                69  96  69  96  69 /  20  20  20  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              71  98  70  97  73 /  20  20  20  10  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 302102
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
402 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HOT TEMPERATURES AND LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE AREA
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AS TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S. EXPECT THIS
ISOLATED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...DRIVEN BY DIURNAL
HEATING ALONG WITH SOME WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
WESTERN TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING UPPER JET AND SOME WEAK LEAD MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY. COULD SEE A FEW PULSE STRONG STORMS THROUGH
THE EVENING GIVEN 0-1KM MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG OVER PARTS OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR /25 KTS OR LESS/ WILL PRECLUDE
ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE BRIEF WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 50 MPH DUE TO THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS MIXED OUT...BUT SOME SMALL HAIL CAN/T BE RULED OUT. THINK MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE WEAK DIVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH/JET AND SOME H85 THETA-E ADVECTION
ALONG THE LLJ AXIS. SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL STAY UP
OVERNIGHT...HELPING KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER SOUTHEAST CO/SOUTHWEST KS ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH EJECTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE DRYLINE TO
SHARPEN OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...AND IT MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
A COUPLE OF ISOLATED STORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BETTER
DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...SO IT/S STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER
STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AND PERHAPS SOME WEAK GLANCING UPPER FORCING
TO THE NORTH WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE ANY STORMS. IF STORMS ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP...STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILES PROMOTING DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS IN COMBINATION WITH MLCAPES UP TO AROUND 2000
J/KG WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO HEAT UP ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
WEST OF THE DRYLINE WHERE H85 TEMPS ECLIPSING 30C WILL SUPPORT
SOME TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS...IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT NOW LOOKS TO LINGER IN THE AREA ON MONDAY...AND MAY BISECT
A DIFFUSE DRYLINE ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. THUS A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SIMILAR TO TOMORROW...IF A STORM IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT. SLIGHTLY
BETTER THUNDERSTORM PROSPECTS MAY DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE
NORTHEAST PANHANDLES AS THE LLJ IMPINGES ON THE FRONTAL ZONE.

THE FRONT RETREATS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY...AND THE UPPER
RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD BACK NORTH AND WEST. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK. THE RESULTANT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MAY PULL IN ENOUGH
MONSOON MOISTURE TO BRING A RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES TO THE NORTHWEST
PANHANDLES LATE NEXT WEEK. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT A COLD FRONT MAY
APPROACH THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES LATE IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER SUMMER
HEAT LOOKS TO HOLD ON THROUGH AT LEAST LATE NEXT WEEK DESPITE THE
CALENDAR ROLLING OVER TO SEPTEMBER.

KB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY...IN THE PRESENCE OF BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS /15-25 MPH AT THE 20-FOOT LEVEL/. WHILE THESE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...FUELS
STILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNSUPPORTIVE.

KB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                68  97  66  96  66 /  20  10  10  10  10
BEAVER OK                  68 101  67  92  68 /  20  20  20  10  20
BOISE CITY OK              63  98  60  92  61 /  20   5   5   5  10
BORGER TX                  70 100  70  97  70 /  20  10  10  10  10
BOYS RANCH TX              68 100  65  96  64 /  20   5   5   5  10
CANYON TX                  66  97  65  96  67 /  20   5   5  10  10
CLARENDON TX               67  97  69  96  71 /  20  20  20  20  20
DALHART TX                 63  98  59  93  62 /  20   5   5   5  10
GUYMON OK                  65 101  63  94  63 /  20  10  10   5  20
HEREFORD TX                66  97  64  96  65 /  20   5   5   5  10
LIPSCOMB TX                71  98  68  92  68 /  20  20  20  10  20
PAMPA TX                   67  96  66  94  67 /  20  20  20  10  20
SHAMROCK TX                69  96  69  96  69 /  20  20  20  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              71  98  70  97  73 /  20  20  20  10  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 301714 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1214 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE S/SW ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY INTO
TOMORROW. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE AT KGUY/KDHT BUT HAVE LEFT
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS, IF STORMS DO FIRE THEY WOULD BE VERY
ISOLATED.

MOULTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

AVIATION...
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVES TO
ABOUT THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO DEVELOP AS A NEW LEE-SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL. THINK ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE TOO
ISOLATED TO MENTION IN THIS FORECAST. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO ZONAL
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES WILL SHARPEN INTO A DRYLINE THIS WEEKEND AND MIX INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY. THE DRYLINE SHOULD WORK ITS WAY TO THE
CAPROCK BY LATE SUNDAY AND BECOME A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE LOW ON CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DECIDED TO
LEAVE THE LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING THE ROCKIES AND MOVING
TOWARDS AND ACROSS THE PANHANDLES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND EASTERN COLORADO
COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO ALLOW ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
PROVIDING THE SHALLOW SURFACE MOISTURE DOES NOT MIX OUT WITH DIURNAL
HEATING. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
LATER TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES AS THE
DRYLINE MIXES EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL ALSO LEAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ALONE FOR NOW. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND
WITH SUNDAY MAX TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING THE UPPER 90S TO ABOVE THE
CENTURY MARK FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLES.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY BEFORE STALLING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW ON THE STATIONARY
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO EJECT NORTHEAST AND WILL LIFT THE
FRONT NORTH AND EAST TUESDAY MORNING. CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE LOW AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPANDED THE POPS MONDAY
NIGHT FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN PANHANDLES AND
ALSO A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
CONVECTION COULD BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND
FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER DECIDED TO LEAVE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. AN
UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD WEST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES BY THE
MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. A DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM PATTERN IN
STORE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE AND END
OF NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

19/08







000
FXUS64 KAMA 301714 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1214 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE S/SW ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY INTO
TOMORROW. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE AT KGUY/KDHT BUT HAVE LEFT
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS, IF STORMS DO FIRE THEY WOULD BE VERY
ISOLATED.

MOULTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

AVIATION...
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVES TO
ABOUT THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO DEVELOP AS A NEW LEE-SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL. THINK ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE TOO
ISOLATED TO MENTION IN THIS FORECAST. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO ZONAL
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES WILL SHARPEN INTO A DRYLINE THIS WEEKEND AND MIX INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY. THE DRYLINE SHOULD WORK ITS WAY TO THE
CAPROCK BY LATE SUNDAY AND BECOME A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE LOW ON CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DECIDED TO
LEAVE THE LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING THE ROCKIES AND MOVING
TOWARDS AND ACROSS THE PANHANDLES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND EASTERN COLORADO
COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO ALLOW ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
PROVIDING THE SHALLOW SURFACE MOISTURE DOES NOT MIX OUT WITH DIURNAL
HEATING. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
LATER TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES AS THE
DRYLINE MIXES EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL ALSO LEAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ALONE FOR NOW. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND
WITH SUNDAY MAX TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING THE UPPER 90S TO ABOVE THE
CENTURY MARK FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLES.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY BEFORE STALLING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW ON THE STATIONARY
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO EJECT NORTHEAST AND WILL LIFT THE
FRONT NORTH AND EAST TUESDAY MORNING. CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE LOW AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPANDED THE POPS MONDAY
NIGHT FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN PANHANDLES AND
ALSO A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
CONVECTION COULD BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND
FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER DECIDED TO LEAVE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. AN
UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD WEST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES BY THE
MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. A DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM PATTERN IN
STORE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE AND END
OF NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

19/08








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