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000
FXUS64 KAMA 200343 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1043 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...ISOLD TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATE WED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE OK AND TX PNHDLS. DUE TO THE EXPECTED
SPARSE COVERAGE SHOULD ANY STORMS FORM...HAVE OMITTED THIS ELEMENT
FROM ANY TAF SITE FOR THIS FCST CYCLE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

UPDATE...
REMOVED POPS AND ADJUSTED SKY COVER GRIDS REST OF TONIGHT. REMAINING
FCST ELEMENTS ARE PLAUSIBLE FOR TONIGHT. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
SENT.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS NEARLY OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON WHICH HAS
HELPED TO KEEP THE CONVECTION POTENTIAL DOWN AND MUCH FURTHER WEST OF
THE AREA. THIS IS EVIDENT ON THE MOSAIC RADAR WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTH CENTRAL NM. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CO CAN PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STORMS WHILE AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES NEAR THE CENTRAL PART OF TX CAN ALSO HELP TO
GENERATE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE.
OVERALL FEEL THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL OVERCOME
THESE FEATURES BUT HAVE KEPT IN A MENTION OF A STRAY STORM IN THESE
LOCATIONS THIS EVENING. ANY CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER SOUTHERN CA. SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL
SHIFT THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE AREA...PROVIDING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 90S WITH SOME LOCATIONS TOPPING THE CENTURY MARK.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE UPPER FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA AND ALONG WITH
THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS NEARBY...A THREAT FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. PRECIP CHANCES WILL EXPAND A BIT FURTHER EASTWARD TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

A SECOND AND STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
BY THE WEEKEND WHERE IT WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY AROUND
MONDAY ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THIS FRONT. HAVE
NOT MADE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES ALTHOUGH MODEL TRENDS ARE SUGGESTING A
POTENTIALLY WETTER AND COOLER WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEK.

CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 20
PERCENT. IN ADDITION FUELS REMAIN UNSUPPORTIVE OF ANY ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 200343 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1043 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...ISOLD TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATE WED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE OK AND TX PNHDLS. DUE TO THE EXPECTED
SPARSE COVERAGE SHOULD ANY STORMS FORM...HAVE OMITTED THIS ELEMENT
FROM ANY TAF SITE FOR THIS FCST CYCLE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

UPDATE...
REMOVED POPS AND ADJUSTED SKY COVER GRIDS REST OF TONIGHT. REMAINING
FCST ELEMENTS ARE PLAUSIBLE FOR TONIGHT. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
SENT.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS NEARLY OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON WHICH HAS
HELPED TO KEEP THE CONVECTION POTENTIAL DOWN AND MUCH FURTHER WEST OF
THE AREA. THIS IS EVIDENT ON THE MOSAIC RADAR WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTH CENTRAL NM. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CO CAN PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STORMS WHILE AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES NEAR THE CENTRAL PART OF TX CAN ALSO HELP TO
GENERATE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE.
OVERALL FEEL THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL OVERCOME
THESE FEATURES BUT HAVE KEPT IN A MENTION OF A STRAY STORM IN THESE
LOCATIONS THIS EVENING. ANY CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER SOUTHERN CA. SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL
SHIFT THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE AREA...PROVIDING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 90S WITH SOME LOCATIONS TOPPING THE CENTURY MARK.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE UPPER FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA AND ALONG WITH
THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS NEARBY...A THREAT FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. PRECIP CHANCES WILL EXPAND A BIT FURTHER EASTWARD TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

A SECOND AND STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
BY THE WEEKEND WHERE IT WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY AROUND
MONDAY ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THIS FRONT. HAVE
NOT MADE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES ALTHOUGH MODEL TRENDS ARE SUGGESTING A
POTENTIALLY WETTER AND COOLER WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEK.

CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 20
PERCENT. IN ADDITION FUELS REMAIN UNSUPPORTIVE OF ANY ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 200249 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
949 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
REMOVED POPS AND ADJUSTED SKY COVER GRIDS REST OF TONIGHT. REMAINING
FCST ELEMENTS ARE PLAUSIBLE FOR TONIGHT. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
SENT.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS NEARLY OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON WHICH HAS
HELPED TO KEEP THE CONVECTION POTENTIAL DOWN AND MUCH FURTHER WEST OF
THE AREA. THIS IS EVIDENT ON THE MOSAIC RADAR WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTH CENTRAL NM. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CO CAN PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STORMS WHILE AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES NEAR THE CENTRAL PART OF TX CAN ALSO HELP TO
GENERATE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE.
OVERALL FEEL THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL OVERCOME
THESE FEATURES BUT HAVE KEPT IN A MENTION OF A STRAY STORM IN THESE
LOCATIONS THIS EVENING. ANY CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER SOUTHERN CA. SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL
SHIFT THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE AREA...PROVIDING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 90S WITH SOME LOCATIONS TOPPING THE CENTURY MARK.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE UPPER FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA AND ALONG WITH
THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS NEARBY...A THREAT FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. PRECIP CHANCES WILL EXPAND A BIT FURTHER EASTWARD TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

A SECOND AND STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
BY THE WEEKEND WHERE IT WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY AROUND
MONDAY ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THIS FRONT. HAVE
NOT MADE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES ALTHOUGH MODEL TRENDS ARE SUGGESTING A
POTENTIALLY WETTER AND COOLER WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEK.

CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 20
PERCENT. IN ADDITION FUELS REMAIN UNSUPPORTIVE OF ANY ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 200249 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
949 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
REMOVED POPS AND ADJUSTED SKY COVER GRIDS REST OF TONIGHT. REMAINING
FCST ELEMENTS ARE PLAUSIBLE FOR TONIGHT. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
SENT.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS NEARLY OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON WHICH HAS
HELPED TO KEEP THE CONVECTION POTENTIAL DOWN AND MUCH FURTHER WEST OF
THE AREA. THIS IS EVIDENT ON THE MOSAIC RADAR WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTH CENTRAL NM. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CO CAN PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STORMS WHILE AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES NEAR THE CENTRAL PART OF TX CAN ALSO HELP TO
GENERATE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE.
OVERALL FEEL THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL OVERCOME
THESE FEATURES BUT HAVE KEPT IN A MENTION OF A STRAY STORM IN THESE
LOCATIONS THIS EVENING. ANY CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER SOUTHERN CA. SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL
SHIFT THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE AREA...PROVIDING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 90S WITH SOME LOCATIONS TOPPING THE CENTURY MARK.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE UPPER FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA AND ALONG WITH
THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS NEARBY...A THREAT FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. PRECIP CHANCES WILL EXPAND A BIT FURTHER EASTWARD TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

A SECOND AND STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
BY THE WEEKEND WHERE IT WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY AROUND
MONDAY ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THIS FRONT. HAVE
NOT MADE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES ALTHOUGH MODEL TRENDS ARE SUGGESTING A
POTENTIALLY WETTER AND COOLER WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEK.

CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 20
PERCENT. IN ADDITION FUELS REMAIN UNSUPPORTIVE OF ANY ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 192354 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
654 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS NEARLY OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON WHICH HAS
HELPED TO KEEP THE CONVECTION POTENTIAL DOWN AND MUCH FURTHER WEST OF
THE AREA. THIS IS EVIDENT ON THE MOSAIC RADAR WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTH CENTRAL NM. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CO CAN PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STORMS WHILE AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES NEAR THE CENTRAL PART OF TX CAN ALSO HELP TO
GENERATE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE.
OVERALL FEEL THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL OVERCOME
THESE FEATURES BUT HAVE KEPT IN A MENTION OF A STRAY STORM IN THESE
LOCATIONS THIS EVENING. ANY CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER SOUTHERN CA. SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL
SHIFT THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE AREA...PROVIDING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 90S WITH SOME LOCATIONS TOPPING THE CENTURY MARK.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE UPPER FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA AND ALONG WITH
THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS NEARBY...A THREAT FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. PRECIP CHANCES WILL EXPAND A BIT FURTHER EASTWARD TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

A SECOND AND STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
BY THE WEEKEND WHERE IT WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY AROUND
MONDAY ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THIS FRONT. HAVE
NOT MADE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES ALTHOUGH MODEL TRENDS ARE SUGGESTING A
POTENTIALLY WETTER AND COOLER WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEK.

CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 20
PERCENT. IN ADDITION FUELS REMAIN UNSUPPORTIVE OF ANY ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 192354 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
654 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS NEARLY OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON WHICH HAS
HELPED TO KEEP THE CONVECTION POTENTIAL DOWN AND MUCH FURTHER WEST OF
THE AREA. THIS IS EVIDENT ON THE MOSAIC RADAR WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTH CENTRAL NM. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CO CAN PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STORMS WHILE AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES NEAR THE CENTRAL PART OF TX CAN ALSO HELP TO
GENERATE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE.
OVERALL FEEL THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL OVERCOME
THESE FEATURES BUT HAVE KEPT IN A MENTION OF A STRAY STORM IN THESE
LOCATIONS THIS EVENING. ANY CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER SOUTHERN CA. SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL
SHIFT THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE AREA...PROVIDING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 90S WITH SOME LOCATIONS TOPPING THE CENTURY MARK.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE UPPER FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA AND ALONG WITH
THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS NEARBY...A THREAT FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. PRECIP CHANCES WILL EXPAND A BIT FURTHER EASTWARD TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

A SECOND AND STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
BY THE WEEKEND WHERE IT WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY AROUND
MONDAY ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THIS FRONT. HAVE
NOT MADE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES ALTHOUGH MODEL TRENDS ARE SUGGESTING A
POTENTIALLY WETTER AND COOLER WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEK.

CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 20
PERCENT. IN ADDITION FUELS REMAIN UNSUPPORTIVE OF ANY ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 192105
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
405 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS NEARLY OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON WHICH HAS
HELPED TO KEEP THE CONVECTION POTENTIAL DOWN AND MUCH FURTHER WEST OF
THE AREA. THIS IS EVIDENT ON THE MOSAIC RADAR WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTH CENTRAL NM. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CO CAN PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STORMS WHILE AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES NEAR THE CENTRAL PART OF TX CAN ALSO HELP TO
GENERATE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE.
OVERALL FEEL THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL OVERCOME
THESE FEATURES BUT HAVE KEPT IN A MENTION OF A STRAY STORM IN THESE
LOCATIONS THIS EVENING. ANY CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER SOUTHERN CA. SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL
SHIFT THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE AREA...PROVIDING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 90S WITH SOME LOCATIONS TOPPING THE CENTURY MARK.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE UPPER FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA AND ALONG WITH
THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS NEARBY...A THREAT FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. PRECIP CHANCES WILL EXPAND A BIT FURTHER EASTWARD TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

A SECOND AND STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
BY THE WEEKEND WHERE IT WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY AROUND
MONDAY ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THIS FRONT. HAVE
NOT MADE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES ALTHOUGH MODEL TRENDS ARE SUGGESTING A
POTENTIALLY WETTER AND COOLER WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEK.

CLK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 20
PERCENT. IN ADDITION FUELS REMAIN UNSUPPORTIVE OF ANY ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

CLK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                67  93  68  93  66 /   5  10  10  20  20
BEAVER OK                  67  99  72 102  70 /   0   5  10  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              65  95  65  96  63 /   5  20  20  20  20
BORGER TX                  72  96  72  97  71 /   5   5  10  20  20
BOYS RANCH TX              68  96  68  97  67 /   5  20  20  20  20
CANYON TX                  66  93  67  93  65 /   5  10  10  20  20
CLARENDON TX               68  94  69  95  68 /  10   5  10  10  10
DALHART TX                 64  95  65  95  64 /   5  20  20  20  20
GUYMON OK                  66 100  68  97  67 /   5  10  20  20  20
HEREFORD TX                64  93  65  92  64 /   5  20  20  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                70  97  72  97  72 /   5   0   5  10  10
PAMPA TX                   67  93  70  94  68 /   5   5  10  10  10
SHAMROCK TX                69  95  70  96  70 /  10   0   5  10  10
WELLINGTON TX              69  97  70  97  70 /  10   5   5  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/05






000
FXUS64 KAMA 192105
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
405 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS NEARLY OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON WHICH HAS
HELPED TO KEEP THE CONVECTION POTENTIAL DOWN AND MUCH FURTHER WEST OF
THE AREA. THIS IS EVIDENT ON THE MOSAIC RADAR WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTH CENTRAL NM. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CO CAN PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STORMS WHILE AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES NEAR THE CENTRAL PART OF TX CAN ALSO HELP TO
GENERATE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE.
OVERALL FEEL THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL OVERCOME
THESE FEATURES BUT HAVE KEPT IN A MENTION OF A STRAY STORM IN THESE
LOCATIONS THIS EVENING. ANY CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER SOUTHERN CA. SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL
SHIFT THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE AREA...PROVIDING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 90S WITH SOME LOCATIONS TOPPING THE CENTURY MARK.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE UPPER FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA AND ALONG WITH
THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS NEARBY...A THREAT FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. PRECIP CHANCES WILL EXPAND A BIT FURTHER EASTWARD TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

A SECOND AND STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
BY THE WEEKEND WHERE IT WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY AROUND
MONDAY ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THIS FRONT. HAVE
NOT MADE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES ALTHOUGH MODEL TRENDS ARE SUGGESTING A
POTENTIALLY WETTER AND COOLER WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEK.

CLK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 20
PERCENT. IN ADDITION FUELS REMAIN UNSUPPORTIVE OF ANY ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

CLK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                67  93  68  93  66 /   5  10  10  20  20
BEAVER OK                  67  99  72 102  70 /   0   5  10  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              65  95  65  96  63 /   5  20  20  20  20
BORGER TX                  72  96  72  97  71 /   5   5  10  20  20
BOYS RANCH TX              68  96  68  97  67 /   5  20  20  20  20
CANYON TX                  66  93  67  93  65 /   5  10  10  20  20
CLARENDON TX               68  94  69  95  68 /  10   5  10  10  10
DALHART TX                 64  95  65  95  64 /   5  20  20  20  20
GUYMON OK                  66 100  68  97  67 /   5  10  20  20  20
HEREFORD TX                64  93  65  92  64 /   5  20  20  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                70  97  72  97  72 /   5   0   5  10  10
PAMPA TX                   67  93  70  94  68 /   5   5  10  10  10
SHAMROCK TX                69  95  70  96  70 /  10   0   5  10  10
WELLINGTON TX              69  97  70  97  70 /  10   5   5  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/05







000
FXUS64 KAMA 191715
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1215 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY KEEPING VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP
AFTER 20Z TODAY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION AS ANY
CONVECTION MAY BE EAST OF THE THREE TAF SITES. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 20Z TODAY WITH SOME POSSIBLE GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AFTER 14Z
WEDNESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTH OF AMA OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTH PLAINS. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT BELIEVE THAT THE CLOUDS OR
FOG WILL FORM OVER AMA...BUT THERE COULD BE IFR CONDITIONS NOT TOO
FAR AWAY. DHT AND GUY SHOULD REMAIN VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GET
GUSTY BY AFTERNOON AND THEN THEY WILL DECREASE WITH SUNSET TO 10
KNOTS OR LESS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY GET CLOSE TO THE AMA TAF SITE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT BELIEVE THAT THE COVERAGE WILL BE PRETTY SPARSE...SO
WILL NOT MENTION THEM IN THE TAF.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF AUGUST.

A FEW SHOWERS WERE LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN OK PANHANDLE AND
NORTHEAST TX PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH AID FROM A WEAK MID-
LEVEL RIPPLE RIDING THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG WITH THE
PRESENCE OF A WEAK LLJ. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO WANE BY AROUND
SUNRISE THIS MORNING...WITH MOST OF THE AREA THEN LIKELY REMAINING
DRY TODAY AND TODAY. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS
HOWEVER...NAMELY THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE...AS
WELL AS THE FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES NEAR THE NM STATE LINE. A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NEAR ABILENE MAY WOBBLE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND BRING WITH IT SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE...TO GENERATE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE. OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK VERY
LIMITED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A STRAY
SHOWER OR STORM NEAR THE NM STATE LINE CAN/T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM TODAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER
RIDGING...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER 90S TO NEAR 100.
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE LEE TROUGH STARTS TO DEEPEN.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...GIVING WAY TO A WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS FLOW
ORIENTATION WILL HELP PULL SOME MONSOON MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE PANHANDLES. THIS
RETURN OF MONSOON MOISTURE...ALONG WITH A LEE TROUGH DRAPED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WESTERN PANHANDLES...WILL BRING A LITTLE BETTER
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
COMBINED PANHANDLES. THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT BETWEEN THE
WESTERN TROUGH AND UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR EAST...AND A LEE
SURFACE TROUGH SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES...IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. THUS AT LEAST
LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF
OF THE AREA...WITH CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME. WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL PRECLUDE THE THREAT FOR ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER...BUT A FEW
PULSE STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OWING TO THE INSTABILITY IN
PLACE...WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THIS TIME.

A COLD FRONT IS EVENTUALLY EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA AROUND THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME AS THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH FINALLY ADVANCES
EASTWARD...HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON ITS TIMING AND
STRENGTH. FOR NOW WILL SPREAD LOW POPS SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND TRIM TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THE FRONT MAY LINGER IN THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK BENEATH MORE PRONOUNCE UPPER TROUGHING...WHEREAS THE
GFS QUICKLY LIFTS THE FRONT BACK NORTHWARD AND ADVERTISES MORE
RIDGING ALOFT. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION...PRECIP
CHANCES WILL EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

KB

FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN OK PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN TX
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER FUELS
REMAIN UNSUPPORTIVE OF ANY ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 20
PERCENT WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH ALONG WITH THE
CURRENT STATE OF FUELS WILL MINIMIZE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
HOWEVER...SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SPEEDS REACHING THE 15 TO 25 MPH
RANGE.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/05







000
FXUS64 KAMA 191715
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1215 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY KEEPING VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP
AFTER 20Z TODAY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION AS ANY
CONVECTION MAY BE EAST OF THE THREE TAF SITES. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 20Z TODAY WITH SOME POSSIBLE GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AFTER 14Z
WEDNESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTH OF AMA OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTH PLAINS. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT BELIEVE THAT THE CLOUDS OR
FOG WILL FORM OVER AMA...BUT THERE COULD BE IFR CONDITIONS NOT TOO
FAR AWAY. DHT AND GUY SHOULD REMAIN VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GET
GUSTY BY AFTERNOON AND THEN THEY WILL DECREASE WITH SUNSET TO 10
KNOTS OR LESS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY GET CLOSE TO THE AMA TAF SITE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT BELIEVE THAT THE COVERAGE WILL BE PRETTY SPARSE...SO
WILL NOT MENTION THEM IN THE TAF.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF AUGUST.

A FEW SHOWERS WERE LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN OK PANHANDLE AND
NORTHEAST TX PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH AID FROM A WEAK MID-
LEVEL RIPPLE RIDING THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG WITH THE
PRESENCE OF A WEAK LLJ. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO WANE BY AROUND
SUNRISE THIS MORNING...WITH MOST OF THE AREA THEN LIKELY REMAINING
DRY TODAY AND TODAY. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS
HOWEVER...NAMELY THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE...AS
WELL AS THE FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES NEAR THE NM STATE LINE. A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NEAR ABILENE MAY WOBBLE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND BRING WITH IT SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE...TO GENERATE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE. OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK VERY
LIMITED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A STRAY
SHOWER OR STORM NEAR THE NM STATE LINE CAN/T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM TODAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER
RIDGING...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER 90S TO NEAR 100.
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE LEE TROUGH STARTS TO DEEPEN.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...GIVING WAY TO A WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS FLOW
ORIENTATION WILL HELP PULL SOME MONSOON MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE PANHANDLES. THIS
RETURN OF MONSOON MOISTURE...ALONG WITH A LEE TROUGH DRAPED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WESTERN PANHANDLES...WILL BRING A LITTLE BETTER
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
COMBINED PANHANDLES. THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT BETWEEN THE
WESTERN TROUGH AND UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR EAST...AND A LEE
SURFACE TROUGH SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES...IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. THUS AT LEAST
LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF
OF THE AREA...WITH CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME. WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL PRECLUDE THE THREAT FOR ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER...BUT A FEW
PULSE STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OWING TO THE INSTABILITY IN
PLACE...WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THIS TIME.

A COLD FRONT IS EVENTUALLY EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA AROUND THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME AS THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH FINALLY ADVANCES
EASTWARD...HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON ITS TIMING AND
STRENGTH. FOR NOW WILL SPREAD LOW POPS SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND TRIM TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THE FRONT MAY LINGER IN THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK BENEATH MORE PRONOUNCE UPPER TROUGHING...WHEREAS THE
GFS QUICKLY LIFTS THE FRONT BACK NORTHWARD AND ADVERTISES MORE
RIDGING ALOFT. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION...PRECIP
CHANCES WILL EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

KB

FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN OK PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN TX
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER FUELS
REMAIN UNSUPPORTIVE OF ANY ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 20
PERCENT WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH ALONG WITH THE
CURRENT STATE OF FUELS WILL MINIMIZE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
HOWEVER...SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SPEEDS REACHING THE 15 TO 25 MPH
RANGE.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/05






000
FXUS64 KAMA 191046 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
546 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTH OF AMA OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTH PLAINS. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT BELIEVE THAT THE CLOUDS OR
FOG WILL FORM OVER AMA...BUT THERE COULD BE IFR CONDITIONS NOT TOO
FAR AWAY. DHT AND GUY SHOULD REMAIN VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GET
GUSTY BY AFTERNOON AND THEN THEY WILL DECREASE WITH SUNSET TO 10
KNOTS OR LESS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY GET CLOSE TO THE AMA TAF SITE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT BELIEVE THAT THE COVERAGE WILL BE PRETTY SPARSE...SO
WILL NOT MENTION THEM IN THE TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF AUGUST.

A FEW SHOWERS WERE LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN OK PANHANDLE AND
NORTHEAST TX PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH AID FROM A WEAK MID-
LEVEL RIPPLE RIDING THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG WITH THE
PRESENCE OF A WEAK LLJ. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO WANE BY AROUND
SUNRISE THIS MORNING...WITH MOST OF THE AREA THEN LIKELY REMAINING
DRY TODAY AND TODAY. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS
HOWEVER...NAMELY THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE...AS
WELL AS THE FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES NEAR THE NM STATE LINE. A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NEAR ABILENE MAY WOBBLE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND BRING WITH IT SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE...TO GENERATE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE. OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK VERY
LIMITED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A STRAY
SHOWER OR STORM NEAR THE NM STATE LINE CAN/T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM TODAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER
RIDGING...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER 90S TO NEAR 100.
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE LEE TROUGH STARTS TO DEEPEN.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...GIVING WAY TO A WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS FLOW
ORIENTATION WILL HELP PULL SOME MONSOON MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE PANHANDLES. THIS
RETURN OF MONSOON MOISTURE...ALONG WITH A LEE TROUGH DRAPED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WESTERN PANHANDLES...WILL BRING A LITTLE BETTER
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
COMBINED PANHANDLES. THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT BETWEEN THE
WESTERN TROUGH AND UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR EAST...AND A LEE
SURFACE TROUGH SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES...IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. THUS AT LEAST
LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF
OF THE AREA...WITH CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME. WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL PRECLUDE THE THREAT FOR ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER...BUT A FEW
PULSE STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OWING TO THE INSTABILITY IN
PLACE...WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THIS TIME.

A COLD FRONT IS EVENTUALLY EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA AROUND THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME AS THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH FINALLY ADVANCES
EASTWARD...HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON ITS TIMING AND
STRENGTH. FOR NOW WILL SPREAD LOW POPS SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND TRIM TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THE FRONT MAY LINGER IN THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK BENEATH MORE PRONOUNCE UPPER TROUGHING...WHEREAS THE
GFS QUICKLY LIFTS THE FRONT BACK NORTHWARD AND ADVERTISES MORE
RIDGING ALOFT. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION...PRECIP
CHANCES WILL EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

KB

FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN OK PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN TX
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER FUELS
REMAIN UNSUPPORTIVE OF ANY ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 20
PERCENT WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH ALONG WITH THE
CURRENT STATE OF FUELS WILL MINIMIZE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
HOWEVER...SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SPEEDS REACHING THE 15 TO 25 MPH
RANGE.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/08






000
FXUS64 KAMA 191046 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
546 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTH OF AMA OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTH PLAINS. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT BELIEVE THAT THE CLOUDS OR
FOG WILL FORM OVER AMA...BUT THERE COULD BE IFR CONDITIONS NOT TOO
FAR AWAY. DHT AND GUY SHOULD REMAIN VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GET
GUSTY BY AFTERNOON AND THEN THEY WILL DECREASE WITH SUNSET TO 10
KNOTS OR LESS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY GET CLOSE TO THE AMA TAF SITE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT BELIEVE THAT THE COVERAGE WILL BE PRETTY SPARSE...SO
WILL NOT MENTION THEM IN THE TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF AUGUST.

A FEW SHOWERS WERE LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN OK PANHANDLE AND
NORTHEAST TX PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH AID FROM A WEAK MID-
LEVEL RIPPLE RIDING THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG WITH THE
PRESENCE OF A WEAK LLJ. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO WANE BY AROUND
SUNRISE THIS MORNING...WITH MOST OF THE AREA THEN LIKELY REMAINING
DRY TODAY AND TODAY. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS
HOWEVER...NAMELY THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE...AS
WELL AS THE FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES NEAR THE NM STATE LINE. A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NEAR ABILENE MAY WOBBLE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND BRING WITH IT SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE...TO GENERATE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE. OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK VERY
LIMITED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A STRAY
SHOWER OR STORM NEAR THE NM STATE LINE CAN/T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM TODAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER
RIDGING...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER 90S TO NEAR 100.
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE LEE TROUGH STARTS TO DEEPEN.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...GIVING WAY TO A WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS FLOW
ORIENTATION WILL HELP PULL SOME MONSOON MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE PANHANDLES. THIS
RETURN OF MONSOON MOISTURE...ALONG WITH A LEE TROUGH DRAPED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WESTERN PANHANDLES...WILL BRING A LITTLE BETTER
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
COMBINED PANHANDLES. THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT BETWEEN THE
WESTERN TROUGH AND UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR EAST...AND A LEE
SURFACE TROUGH SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES...IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. THUS AT LEAST
LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF
OF THE AREA...WITH CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME. WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL PRECLUDE THE THREAT FOR ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER...BUT A FEW
PULSE STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OWING TO THE INSTABILITY IN
PLACE...WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THIS TIME.

A COLD FRONT IS EVENTUALLY EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA AROUND THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME AS THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH FINALLY ADVANCES
EASTWARD...HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON ITS TIMING AND
STRENGTH. FOR NOW WILL SPREAD LOW POPS SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND TRIM TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THE FRONT MAY LINGER IN THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK BENEATH MORE PRONOUNCE UPPER TROUGHING...WHEREAS THE
GFS QUICKLY LIFTS THE FRONT BACK NORTHWARD AND ADVERTISES MORE
RIDGING ALOFT. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION...PRECIP
CHANCES WILL EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

KB

FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN OK PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN TX
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER FUELS
REMAIN UNSUPPORTIVE OF ANY ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 20
PERCENT WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH ALONG WITH THE
CURRENT STATE OF FUELS WILL MINIMIZE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
HOWEVER...SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SPEEDS REACHING THE 15 TO 25 MPH
RANGE.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/08







000
FXUS64 KAMA 190934
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
434 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF AUGUST.

A FEW SHOWERS WERE LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN OK PANHANDLE AND
NORTHEAST TX PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH AID FROM A WEAK MID-
LEVEL RIPPLE RIDING THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG WITH THE
PRESENCE OF A WEAK LLJ. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO WANE BY AROUND
SUNRISE THIS MORNING...WITH MOST OF THE AREA THEN LIKELY REMAINING
DRY TODAY AND TODAY. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS
HOWEVER...NAMELY THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE...AS
WELL AS THE FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES NEAR THE NM STATE LINE. A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NEAR ABILENE MAY WOBBLE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND BRING WITH IT SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE...TO GENERATE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE. OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK VERY
LIMITED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A STRAY
SHOWER OR STORM NEAR THE NM STATE LINE CAN/T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM TODAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER
RIDGING...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER 90S TO NEAR 100.
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE LEE TROUGH STARTS TO DEEPEN.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...GIVING WAY TO A WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS FLOW
ORIENTATION WILL HELP PULL SOME MONSOON MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE PANHANDLES. THIS
RETURN OF MONSOON MOISTURE...ALONG WITH A LEE TROUGH DRAPED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WESTERN PANHANDLES...WILL BRING A LITTLE BETTER
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
COMBINED PANHANDLES. THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT BETWEEN THE
WESTERN TROUGH AND UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR EAST...AND A LEE
SURFACE TROUGH SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES...IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. THUS AT LEAST
LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF
OF THE AREA...WITH CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME. WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL PRECLUDE THE THREAT FOR ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER...BUT A FEW
PULSE STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OWING TO THE INSTABILITY IN
PLACE...WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THIS TIME.

A COLD FRONT IS EVENTUALLY EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA AROUND THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME AS THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH FINALLY ADVANCES
EASTWARD...HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON ITS TIMING AND
STRENGTH. FOR NOW WILL SPREAD LOW POPS SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND TRIM TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THE FRONT MAY LINGER IN THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK BENEATH MORE PRONOUNCE UPPER TROUGHING...WHEREAS THE
GFS QUICKLY LIFTS THE FRONT BACK NORTHWARD AND ADVERTISES MORE
RIDGING ALOFT. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION...PRECIP
CHANCES WILL EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

KB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN OK PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN TX
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER FUELS
REMAIN UNSUPPORTIVE OF ANY ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 20
PERCENT WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH ALONG WITH THE
CURRENT STATE OF FUELS WILL MINIMIZE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
HOWEVER...SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SPEEDS REACHING THE 15 TO 25 MPH
RANGE.

KB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                92  68  93  67  92 /   5   5  10  20  20
BEAVER OK                  99  69 100  72 101 /   5   0   5  10  20
BOISE CITY OK              96  66  95  65  94 /   5   5  20  20  20
BORGER TX                  97  73  96  71  97 /   5   5   5  20  20
BOYS RANCH TX              97  70  96  68  95 /   5   5  20  20  20
CANYON TX                  92  67  93  66  92 /   5   5  10  20  20
CLARENDON TX               92  70  94  69  94 /  20  10   5  10  10
DALHART TX                 94  65  94  64  92 /   5   5  20  20  20
GUYMON OK                  98  68  99  70  96 /   5   5  10  20  20
HEREFORD TX                92  66  92  64  91 /   5   5  20  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                97  73  97  73  97 /  10   5   5  10  10
PAMPA TX                   93  69  94  70  93 /   5   5   5  10  10
SHAMROCK TX                93  71  95  71  95 /  20  10   0  10  10
WELLINGTON TX              94  71  97  71  97 /  20  10   0  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/08






000
FXUS64 KAMA 190934
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
434 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF AUGUST.

A FEW SHOWERS WERE LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN OK PANHANDLE AND
NORTHEAST TX PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH AID FROM A WEAK MID-
LEVEL RIPPLE RIDING THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG WITH THE
PRESENCE OF A WEAK LLJ. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO WANE BY AROUND
SUNRISE THIS MORNING...WITH MOST OF THE AREA THEN LIKELY REMAINING
DRY TODAY AND TODAY. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS
HOWEVER...NAMELY THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE...AS
WELL AS THE FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES NEAR THE NM STATE LINE. A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NEAR ABILENE MAY WOBBLE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND BRING WITH IT SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE...TO GENERATE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE. OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK VERY
LIMITED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A STRAY
SHOWER OR STORM NEAR THE NM STATE LINE CAN/T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM TODAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER
RIDGING...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER 90S TO NEAR 100.
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE LEE TROUGH STARTS TO DEEPEN.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...GIVING WAY TO A WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS FLOW
ORIENTATION WILL HELP PULL SOME MONSOON MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE PANHANDLES. THIS
RETURN OF MONSOON MOISTURE...ALONG WITH A LEE TROUGH DRAPED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WESTERN PANHANDLES...WILL BRING A LITTLE BETTER
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
COMBINED PANHANDLES. THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT BETWEEN THE
WESTERN TROUGH AND UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR EAST...AND A LEE
SURFACE TROUGH SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES...IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. THUS AT LEAST
LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF
OF THE AREA...WITH CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME. WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL PRECLUDE THE THREAT FOR ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER...BUT A FEW
PULSE STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OWING TO THE INSTABILITY IN
PLACE...WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THIS TIME.

A COLD FRONT IS EVENTUALLY EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA AROUND THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME AS THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH FINALLY ADVANCES
EASTWARD...HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON ITS TIMING AND
STRENGTH. FOR NOW WILL SPREAD LOW POPS SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND TRIM TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THE FRONT MAY LINGER IN THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK BENEATH MORE PRONOUNCE UPPER TROUGHING...WHEREAS THE
GFS QUICKLY LIFTS THE FRONT BACK NORTHWARD AND ADVERTISES MORE
RIDGING ALOFT. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION...PRECIP
CHANCES WILL EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

KB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN OK PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN TX
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER FUELS
REMAIN UNSUPPORTIVE OF ANY ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 20
PERCENT WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH ALONG WITH THE
CURRENT STATE OF FUELS WILL MINIMIZE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
HOWEVER...SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SPEEDS REACHING THE 15 TO 25 MPH
RANGE.

KB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                92  68  93  67  92 /   5   5  10  20  20
BEAVER OK                  99  69 100  72 101 /   5   0   5  10  20
BOISE CITY OK              96  66  95  65  94 /   5   5  20  20  20
BORGER TX                  97  73  96  71  97 /   5   5   5  20  20
BOYS RANCH TX              97  70  96  68  95 /   5   5  20  20  20
CANYON TX                  92  67  93  66  92 /   5   5  10  20  20
CLARENDON TX               92  70  94  69  94 /  20  10   5  10  10
DALHART TX                 94  65  94  64  92 /   5   5  20  20  20
GUYMON OK                  98  68  99  70  96 /   5   5  10  20  20
HEREFORD TX                92  66  92  64  91 /   5   5  20  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                97  73  97  73  97 /  10   5   5  10  10
PAMPA TX                   93  69  94  70  93 /   5   5   5  10  10
SHAMROCK TX                93  71  95  71  95 /  20  10   0  10  10
WELLINGTON TX              94  71  97  71  97 /  20  10   0  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/08







000
FXUS64 KAMA 190357 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1057 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...ISOLD TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS NW SECTIONS OF THE TX AND OK PNHDLS. DUE TO THE
EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE...HAVE OMITTED THIS ELEMENT FROM KDHT.
OHTERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH 06Z TUE.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY PASS NEAR KGUY
DURG FIRST FEW HOURS OF THIS FCST...AND HAVE INCORPORATED A VCTS
ELEMENT AT THAT SITE TIL 03Z. OUTSIDE OF THAT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 00Z WED.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY FIRING IN NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND SOUTH OF LUBBOCK, CLOSE TO MIDLAND. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
AND SEE IF STORMS UP NORTH ARE ABLE TO FILL IN AND INVADE THE
PANHANDLES. REGARDLESS IF THEY`RE ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO BE VERY LOW AS LIMITED CAPE AND SHEAR WILL LEND
TOWARDS CONVECTION STRUGGLING TO ORGANIZE. THINK MAIN THREAT TODAY
(AND THE REST OF THE WEEK) WOULD BE COLLAPSING STORMS PRODUCING
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH.

ON TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE STORMS WILL TRY AND FORM SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
ATTEMPT TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE, BUT AT THIS TIME
BELIEVE LOCATIONS CLOSER TO LUBBOCK HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO STORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN NEW MEXICO AND MAKE A RUN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST
PANHANDLES. AS MOST OF THESE STORMS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THINK
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME CONTAIN THE BEST CHANCES TO SEE
STORMS. ALMOST A COPY AND PASTE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SOMEWHERE IN THE PANHANDLES EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. STORMS WILL FORM
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A FEW STRAY ONES MIGHT MAKE IT INTO THE
PANHANDLES, BUT AT THIS TIME EXPECT MOST PEOPLE IN THE AREA TO
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WORKWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. AGAIN CAN`T RULE
OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO DURING THE WEEK, BUT THINK MOST PEOPLE
THAT GET UNDER A STORM WILL EXPERIENCE JUST RAIN AND LIGHTNING.

BROAD RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE A TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODELS
CURRENTLY ARE NOT AGREEING ON THE STRENGTH OF EITHER OF THESE TWO
FEATURES AND HOW IT WILL IMPACT THE PANHANDLES SITTING BETWEEN THEM.
CURRENTLY HAVE THE FORECAST IN THESE PERIODS MOSTLY DRY BUT WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR IT IF/WHEN MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY AND TOMORROW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 20
PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. AT THE
SAME TIME WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 10 TO 20 MPH, WITH
TUESDAY BEING SLIGHTLY WINDIER THAN TODAY. CURRENTLY NOT AS
CONCERNED WITH FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO UNSUPPORTIVE FUELS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WINDS LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 10 TO
20 MPH, BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 20 PERCENT
DURING THIS PERIOD, SO NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

02/99






000
FXUS64 KAMA 190357 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1057 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...ISOLD TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS NW SECTIONS OF THE TX AND OK PNHDLS. DUE TO THE
EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE...HAVE OMITTED THIS ELEMENT FROM KDHT.
OHTERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH 06Z TUE.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY PASS NEAR KGUY
DURG FIRST FEW HOURS OF THIS FCST...AND HAVE INCORPORATED A VCTS
ELEMENT AT THAT SITE TIL 03Z. OUTSIDE OF THAT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 00Z WED.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY FIRING IN NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND SOUTH OF LUBBOCK, CLOSE TO MIDLAND. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
AND SEE IF STORMS UP NORTH ARE ABLE TO FILL IN AND INVADE THE
PANHANDLES. REGARDLESS IF THEY`RE ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO BE VERY LOW AS LIMITED CAPE AND SHEAR WILL LEND
TOWARDS CONVECTION STRUGGLING TO ORGANIZE. THINK MAIN THREAT TODAY
(AND THE REST OF THE WEEK) WOULD BE COLLAPSING STORMS PRODUCING
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH.

ON TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE STORMS WILL TRY AND FORM SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
ATTEMPT TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE, BUT AT THIS TIME
BELIEVE LOCATIONS CLOSER TO LUBBOCK HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO STORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN NEW MEXICO AND MAKE A RUN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST
PANHANDLES. AS MOST OF THESE STORMS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THINK
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME CONTAIN THE BEST CHANCES TO SEE
STORMS. ALMOST A COPY AND PASTE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SOMEWHERE IN THE PANHANDLES EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. STORMS WILL FORM
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A FEW STRAY ONES MIGHT MAKE IT INTO THE
PANHANDLES, BUT AT THIS TIME EXPECT MOST PEOPLE IN THE AREA TO
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WORKWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. AGAIN CAN`T RULE
OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO DURING THE WEEK, BUT THINK MOST PEOPLE
THAT GET UNDER A STORM WILL EXPERIENCE JUST RAIN AND LIGHTNING.

BROAD RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE A TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODELS
CURRENTLY ARE NOT AGREEING ON THE STRENGTH OF EITHER OF THESE TWO
FEATURES AND HOW IT WILL IMPACT THE PANHANDLES SITTING BETWEEN THEM.
CURRENTLY HAVE THE FORECAST IN THESE PERIODS MOSTLY DRY BUT WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR IT IF/WHEN MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY AND TOMORROW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 20
PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. AT THE
SAME TIME WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 10 TO 20 MPH, WITH
TUESDAY BEING SLIGHTLY WINDIER THAN TODAY. CURRENTLY NOT AS
CONCERNED WITH FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO UNSUPPORTIVE FUELS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WINDS LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 10 TO
20 MPH, BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 20 PERCENT
DURING THIS PERIOD, SO NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

02/99







000
FXUS64 KAMA 182327 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
627 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY PASS NEAR KGUY
DURG FIRST FEW HOURS OF THIS FCST...AND HAVE INCORPORATED A VCTS
ELEMENT AT THAT SITE TIL 03Z. OUTSIDE OF THAT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 00Z WED.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY FIRING IN NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND SOUTH OF LUBBOCK, CLOSE TO MIDLAND. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
AND SEE IF STORMS UP NORTH ARE ABLE TO FILL IN AND INVADE THE
PANHANDLES. REGARDLESS IF THEY`RE ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO BE VERY LOW AS LIMITED CAPE AND SHEAR WILL LEND
TOWARDS CONVECTION STRUGGLING TO ORGANIZE. THINK MAIN THREAT TODAY
(AND THE REST OF THE WEEK) WOULD BE COLLAPSING STORMS PRODUCING
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH.

ON TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE STORMS WILL TRY AND FORM SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
ATTEMPT TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE, BUT AT THIS TIME
BELIEVE LOCATIONS CLOSER TO LUBBOCK HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO STORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN NEW MEXICO AND MAKE A RUN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST
PANHANDLES. AS MOST OF THESE STORMS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THINK
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME CONTAIN THE BEST CHANCES TO SEE
STORMS. ALMOST A COPY AND PASTE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SOMEWHERE IN THE PANHANDLES EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. STORMS WILL FORM
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A FEW STRAY ONES MIGHT MAKE IT INTO THE
PANHANDLES, BUT AT THIS TIME EXPECT MOST PEOPLE IN THE AREA TO
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WORKWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. AGAIN CAN`T RULE
OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO DURING THE WEEK, BUT THINK MOST PEOPLE
THAT GET UNDER A STORM WILL EXPERIENCE JUST RAIN AND LIGHTNING.

BROAD RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE A TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODELS
CURRENTLY ARE NOT AGREEING ON THE STRENGTH OF EITHER OF THESE TWO
FEATURES AND HOW IT WILL IMPACT THE PANHANDLES SITTING BETWEEN THEM.
CURRENTLY HAVE THE FORECAST IN THESE PERIODS MOSTLY DRY BUT WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR IT IF/WHEN MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY AND TOMORROW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 20
PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. AT THE
SAME TIME WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 10 TO 20 MPH, WITH
TUESDAY BEING SLIGHTLY WINDIER THAN TODAY. CURRENTLY NOT AS
CONCERNED WITH FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO UNSUPPORTIVE FUELS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WINDS LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 10 TO
20 MPH, BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 20 PERCENT
DURING THIS PERIOD, SO NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 182327 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
627 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY PASS NEAR KGUY
DURG FIRST FEW HOURS OF THIS FCST...AND HAVE INCORPORATED A VCTS
ELEMENT AT THAT SITE TIL 03Z. OUTSIDE OF THAT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 00Z WED.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY FIRING IN NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND SOUTH OF LUBBOCK, CLOSE TO MIDLAND. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
AND SEE IF STORMS UP NORTH ARE ABLE TO FILL IN AND INVADE THE
PANHANDLES. REGARDLESS IF THEY`RE ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO BE VERY LOW AS LIMITED CAPE AND SHEAR WILL LEND
TOWARDS CONVECTION STRUGGLING TO ORGANIZE. THINK MAIN THREAT TODAY
(AND THE REST OF THE WEEK) WOULD BE COLLAPSING STORMS PRODUCING
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH.

ON TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE STORMS WILL TRY AND FORM SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
ATTEMPT TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE, BUT AT THIS TIME
BELIEVE LOCATIONS CLOSER TO LUBBOCK HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO STORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN NEW MEXICO AND MAKE A RUN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST
PANHANDLES. AS MOST OF THESE STORMS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THINK
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME CONTAIN THE BEST CHANCES TO SEE
STORMS. ALMOST A COPY AND PASTE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SOMEWHERE IN THE PANHANDLES EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. STORMS WILL FORM
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A FEW STRAY ONES MIGHT MAKE IT INTO THE
PANHANDLES, BUT AT THIS TIME EXPECT MOST PEOPLE IN THE AREA TO
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WORKWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. AGAIN CAN`T RULE
OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO DURING THE WEEK, BUT THINK MOST PEOPLE
THAT GET UNDER A STORM WILL EXPERIENCE JUST RAIN AND LIGHTNING.

BROAD RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE A TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODELS
CURRENTLY ARE NOT AGREEING ON THE STRENGTH OF EITHER OF THESE TWO
FEATURES AND HOW IT WILL IMPACT THE PANHANDLES SITTING BETWEEN THEM.
CURRENTLY HAVE THE FORECAST IN THESE PERIODS MOSTLY DRY BUT WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR IT IF/WHEN MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY AND TOMORROW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 20
PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. AT THE
SAME TIME WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 10 TO 20 MPH, WITH
TUESDAY BEING SLIGHTLY WINDIER THAN TODAY. CURRENTLY NOT AS
CONCERNED WITH FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO UNSUPPORTIVE FUELS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WINDS LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 10 TO
20 MPH, BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 20 PERCENT
DURING THIS PERIOD, SO NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 181953
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
253 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY FIRING IN NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND SOUTH OF LUBBOCK, CLOSE TO MIDLAND. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
AND SEE IF STORMS UP NORTH ARE ABLE TO FILL IN AND INVADE THE
PANHANDLES. REGARDLESS IF THEY`RE ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO BE VERY LOW AS LIMITED CAPE AND SHEAR WILL LEND
TOWARDS CONVECTION STRUGGLING TO ORGANIZE. THINK MAIN THREAT TODAY
(AND THE REST OF THE WEEK) WOULD BE COLLAPSING STORMS PRODUCING
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH.

ON TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE STORMS WILL TRY AND FORM SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
ATTEMPT TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE, BUT AT THIS TIME
BELIEVE LOCATIONS CLOSER TO LUBBOCK HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO STORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN NEW MEXICO AND MAKE A RUN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST
PANHANDLES. AS MOST OF THESE STORMS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THINK
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME CONTAIN THE BEST CHANCES TO SEE
STORMS. ALMOST A COPY AND PASTE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SOMEWHERE IN THE PANHANDLES EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. STORMS WILL FORM
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A FEW STRAY ONES MIGHT MAKE IT INTO THE
PANHANDLES, BUT AT THIS TIME EXPECT MOST PEOPLE IN THE AREA TO
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WORKWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. AGAIN CAN`T RULE
OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO DURING THE WEEK, BUT THINK MOST PEOPLE
THAT GET UNDER A STORM WILL EXPERIENCE JUST RAIN AND LIGHTNING.

BROAD RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE A TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODELS
CURRENTLY ARE NOT AGREEING ON THE STRENGTH OF EITHER OF THESE TWO
FEATURES AND HOW IT WILL IMPACT THE PANHANDLES SITTING BETWEEN THEM.
CURRENTLY HAVE THE FORECAST IN THESE PERIODS MOSTLY DRY BUT WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR IT IF/WHEN MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY AND TOMORROW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 20
PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. AT THE
SAME TIME WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 10 TO 20 MPH, WITH
TUESDAY BEING SLIGHTLY WINDIER THAN TODAY. CURRENTLY NOT AS
CONCERNED WITH FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO UNSUPPORTIVE FUELS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WINDS LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 10 TO
20 MPH, BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 20 PERCENT
DURING THIS PERIOD, SO NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                66  92  67  92  67 /  10   0   0   0   5
BEAVER OK                  68  98  70 100  71 /  20   5   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              64  96  65  94  65 /  20  20  20  20  20
BORGER TX                  69  95  71  95  71 /  10   0   0   0   5
BOYS RANCH TX              65  95  68  95  68 /  10   5   5  10  20
CANYON TX                  65  91  66  92  66 /  10   0   0   0   5
CLARENDON TX               67  93  69  94  68 /  10   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 62  94  64  93  64 /  10  10  10  20  20
GUYMON OK                  66  97  68  97  68 /  10   5   5  10  20
HEREFORD TX                62  90  65  91  64 /  10   0   0   5  10
LIPSCOMB TX                67  96  71  96  71 /  10   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   66  93  69  93  68 /  10   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                68  94  71  94  70 /  10   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              68  95  71  96  71 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

05/19







000
FXUS64 KAMA 181953
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
253 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY FIRING IN NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND SOUTH OF LUBBOCK, CLOSE TO MIDLAND. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
AND SEE IF STORMS UP NORTH ARE ABLE TO FILL IN AND INVADE THE
PANHANDLES. REGARDLESS IF THEY`RE ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO BE VERY LOW AS LIMITED CAPE AND SHEAR WILL LEND
TOWARDS CONVECTION STRUGGLING TO ORGANIZE. THINK MAIN THREAT TODAY
(AND THE REST OF THE WEEK) WOULD BE COLLAPSING STORMS PRODUCING
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH.

ON TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE STORMS WILL TRY AND FORM SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
ATTEMPT TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE, BUT AT THIS TIME
BELIEVE LOCATIONS CLOSER TO LUBBOCK HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO STORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN NEW MEXICO AND MAKE A RUN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST
PANHANDLES. AS MOST OF THESE STORMS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THINK
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME CONTAIN THE BEST CHANCES TO SEE
STORMS. ALMOST A COPY AND PASTE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SOMEWHERE IN THE PANHANDLES EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. STORMS WILL FORM
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A FEW STRAY ONES MIGHT MAKE IT INTO THE
PANHANDLES, BUT AT THIS TIME EXPECT MOST PEOPLE IN THE AREA TO
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WORKWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. AGAIN CAN`T RULE
OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO DURING THE WEEK, BUT THINK MOST PEOPLE
THAT GET UNDER A STORM WILL EXPERIENCE JUST RAIN AND LIGHTNING.

BROAD RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE A TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODELS
CURRENTLY ARE NOT AGREEING ON THE STRENGTH OF EITHER OF THESE TWO
FEATURES AND HOW IT WILL IMPACT THE PANHANDLES SITTING BETWEEN THEM.
CURRENTLY HAVE THE FORECAST IN THESE PERIODS MOSTLY DRY BUT WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR IT IF/WHEN MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY AND TOMORROW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 20
PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. AT THE
SAME TIME WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 10 TO 20 MPH, WITH
TUESDAY BEING SLIGHTLY WINDIER THAN TODAY. CURRENTLY NOT AS
CONCERNED WITH FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO UNSUPPORTIVE FUELS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WINDS LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 10 TO
20 MPH, BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 20 PERCENT
DURING THIS PERIOD, SO NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                66  92  67  92  67 /  10   0   0   0   5
BEAVER OK                  68  98  70 100  71 /  20   5   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              64  96  65  94  65 /  20  20  20  20  20
BORGER TX                  69  95  71  95  71 /  10   0   0   0   5
BOYS RANCH TX              65  95  68  95  68 /  10   5   5  10  20
CANYON TX                  65  91  66  92  66 /  10   0   0   0   5
CLARENDON TX               67  93  69  94  68 /  10   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 62  94  64  93  64 /  10  10  10  20  20
GUYMON OK                  66  97  68  97  68 /  10   5   5  10  20
HEREFORD TX                62  90  65  91  64 /  10   0   0   5  10
LIPSCOMB TX                67  96  71  96  71 /  10   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   66  93  69  93  68 /  10   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                68  94  71  94  70 /  10   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              68  95  71  96  71 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

05/19






000
FXUS64 KAMA 181740 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1240 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TERMINALS THROUGH
18Z TUESDAY. POSSIBLE FOR AN ISOLD STORM TO MOVE NEAR THE KDHT OR KGUY
TERMINALS HOWEVER THE POSSIBILITY OF THIS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO AROUND 15 KTS BY AROUND 16Z TUESDAY.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

AVIATION...
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. DO NOT
THINK THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT TO DHT...SO SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THERE TODAY. EAST WINDS AT GUY WILL VEER AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY BY MID DAY. AMA WILL HAVE SOUTHERLY
WINDS WHICH WILL GET GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHERLY TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SKIES WILL
REMAIN VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT: A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTHWEST AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT TRIGGERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS EARLIER THIS MORNING. OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
CONVECTION HAS CAUSED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS AND EVEN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AND/OR PUSH INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY SUNRISE.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON, 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 1 TO 1.5 C
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, SO HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE ABOUT 1 TO 3
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS SHOULD PUT MOST PLACES IN THE MID
90S TO LOWER 100S. A FEW HIGH-BASED CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON, AND A FEW OF THESE COULD DEVELOP INTO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 3 PM AND 10 PM. THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF ANY
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE NORTH OF A DALHART TO LIPSCOMB LINE WITH THE
MOST LIKELY AREA TO BE NORTHWEST OF A DALHART TO ELKHART LINE. NO
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED AS MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES WILL ONLY
INCREASE UP TO 1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK.
NONETHELESS, IT WON`T TAKE MUCH OF A CORE TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS UP
TO 50 MPH AS THE STORMS COLLAPSE DUE TO THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S TO NEAR 70.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: IT`S HARD TO GET EXCITED ABOUT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND
WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. DESPITE THIS, WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS STRAY INTO THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS NOT VERY
HIGH AS THE STEERING FLOW WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT. WE MAY ALSO HAVE
TO WATCH THE FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM MOVING INTO THAT AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING A WEAKNESS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE,
LIKELY SOME SEMBLANCE OF A SHEAR AXIS. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL
STAY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST, BUT IT`S SOMETHING TO WATCH. HIGHS WILL
TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 90S TO NEAR 100 AS UPPER HEIGHTS FALL AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY. ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS LIKE THE WIND ALWAYS
BLOWS AROUND HERE, IT WILL BE NOTICEABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE A DEEPENING LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH.
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET, BUT THEY WILL STILL
REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT, WHICH WILL KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT: THESE DAYS WILL BE A RINSE AND NEAR REPEAT
OF TUESDAY`S WEATHER EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES.
SOME LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS COULD MOVE INTO THE FAR
WESTERN PANHANDLES EACH DAY, MAINLY WEST OF A LIBERAL TO HEREFORD
LINE, BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN HIGH AND DRY. A
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM (THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE WIND) OR TWO
CAN`T BE RULED OUT DURING THIS PERIOD, BUT BUOYANCY AND SHEAR WILL
REMAIN WEAK AND UNSUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: THERE ARE STILL SOME DETAILS TO BE IRONED OUT,
BUT MODELS GENERALLY SHOW A BROAD UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
PANHANDLES WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. ANOTHER FEATURE
THAT MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO HANDLE IS A CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT IS
FORECAST TO BECOME CUT-OFF ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE GFS
REMAINS FASTER WITH ITS EJECTION THAN THE ECMWF, BUT GIVEN THAT IT
WILL BE DISPLACED WELL AWAY FROM THE WESTERLIES, THE SLOWER ECMWF
SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE. THEREFORE, WE KEPT POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY. MORE UNCERTAINTY LURKS FOR SUNDAY AS THE ECMWF SHOWS A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. IF THIS OCCURS, WE`LL BE LOOKING AT
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO REMAIN LOW.

JACKSON

FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES TODAY AND TUESDAY. 20-FOOT SOUTHERLY WINDS
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS, PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER, NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DUE TO UNSUPPORTIVE FUELS. SOUTHERLY 20-FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 MPH WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT DURING THIS
PERIOD. THEREFORE, NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

05/19






000
FXUS64 KAMA 181740 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1240 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TERMINALS THROUGH
18Z TUESDAY. POSSIBLE FOR AN ISOLD STORM TO MOVE NEAR THE KDHT OR KGUY
TERMINALS HOWEVER THE POSSIBILITY OF THIS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO AROUND 15 KTS BY AROUND 16Z TUESDAY.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

AVIATION...
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. DO NOT
THINK THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT TO DHT...SO SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THERE TODAY. EAST WINDS AT GUY WILL VEER AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY BY MID DAY. AMA WILL HAVE SOUTHERLY
WINDS WHICH WILL GET GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHERLY TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SKIES WILL
REMAIN VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT: A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTHWEST AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT TRIGGERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS EARLIER THIS MORNING. OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
CONVECTION HAS CAUSED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS AND EVEN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AND/OR PUSH INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY SUNRISE.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON, 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 1 TO 1.5 C
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, SO HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE ABOUT 1 TO 3
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS SHOULD PUT MOST PLACES IN THE MID
90S TO LOWER 100S. A FEW HIGH-BASED CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON, AND A FEW OF THESE COULD DEVELOP INTO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 3 PM AND 10 PM. THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF ANY
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE NORTH OF A DALHART TO LIPSCOMB LINE WITH THE
MOST LIKELY AREA TO BE NORTHWEST OF A DALHART TO ELKHART LINE. NO
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED AS MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES WILL ONLY
INCREASE UP TO 1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK.
NONETHELESS, IT WON`T TAKE MUCH OF A CORE TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS UP
TO 50 MPH AS THE STORMS COLLAPSE DUE TO THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S TO NEAR 70.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: IT`S HARD TO GET EXCITED ABOUT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND
WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. DESPITE THIS, WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS STRAY INTO THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS NOT VERY
HIGH AS THE STEERING FLOW WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT. WE MAY ALSO HAVE
TO WATCH THE FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM MOVING INTO THAT AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING A WEAKNESS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE,
LIKELY SOME SEMBLANCE OF A SHEAR AXIS. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL
STAY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST, BUT IT`S SOMETHING TO WATCH. HIGHS WILL
TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 90S TO NEAR 100 AS UPPER HEIGHTS FALL AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY. ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS LIKE THE WIND ALWAYS
BLOWS AROUND HERE, IT WILL BE NOTICEABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE A DEEPENING LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH.
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET, BUT THEY WILL STILL
REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT, WHICH WILL KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT: THESE DAYS WILL BE A RINSE AND NEAR REPEAT
OF TUESDAY`S WEATHER EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES.
SOME LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS COULD MOVE INTO THE FAR
WESTERN PANHANDLES EACH DAY, MAINLY WEST OF A LIBERAL TO HEREFORD
LINE, BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN HIGH AND DRY. A
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM (THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE WIND) OR TWO
CAN`T BE RULED OUT DURING THIS PERIOD, BUT BUOYANCY AND SHEAR WILL
REMAIN WEAK AND UNSUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: THERE ARE STILL SOME DETAILS TO BE IRONED OUT,
BUT MODELS GENERALLY SHOW A BROAD UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
PANHANDLES WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. ANOTHER FEATURE
THAT MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO HANDLE IS A CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT IS
FORECAST TO BECOME CUT-OFF ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE GFS
REMAINS FASTER WITH ITS EJECTION THAN THE ECMWF, BUT GIVEN THAT IT
WILL BE DISPLACED WELL AWAY FROM THE WESTERLIES, THE SLOWER ECMWF
SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE. THEREFORE, WE KEPT POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY. MORE UNCERTAINTY LURKS FOR SUNDAY AS THE ECMWF SHOWS A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. IF THIS OCCURS, WE`LL BE LOOKING AT
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO REMAIN LOW.

JACKSON

FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES TODAY AND TUESDAY. 20-FOOT SOUTHERLY WINDS
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS, PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER, NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DUE TO UNSUPPORTIVE FUELS. SOUTHERLY 20-FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 MPH WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT DURING THIS
PERIOD. THEREFORE, NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

05/19







000
FXUS64 KAMA 181039 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
539 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.AVIATION...
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. DO NOT
THINK THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT TO DHT...SO SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THERE TODAY. EAST WINDS AT GUY WILL VEER AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY BY MID DAY. AMA WILL HAVE SOUTHERLY
WINDS WHICH WILL GET GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHERLY TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SKIES WILL
REMAIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT: A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTHWEST AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT TRIGGERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS EARLIER THIS MORNING. OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
CONVECTION HAS CAUSED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS AND EVEN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AND/OR PUSH INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY SUNRISE.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON, 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 1 TO 1.5 C
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, SO HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE ABOUT 1 TO 3
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS SHOULD PUT MOST PLACES IN THE MID
90S TO LOWER 100S. A FEW HIGH-BASED CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON, AND A FEW OF THESE COULD DEVELOP INTO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 3 PM AND 10 PM. THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF ANY
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE NORTH OF A DALHART TO LIPSCOMB LINE WITH THE
MOST LIKELY AREA TO BE NORTHWEST OF A DALHART TO ELKHART LINE. NO
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED AS MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES WILL ONLY
INCREASE UP TO 1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK.
NONETHELESS, IT WON`T TAKE MUCH OF A CORE TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS UP
TO 50 MPH AS THE STORMS COLLAPSE DUE TO THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S TO NEAR 70.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: IT`S HARD TO GET EXCITED ABOUT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND
WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. DESPITE THIS, WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS STRAY INTO THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS NOT VERY
HIGH AS THE STEERING FLOW WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT. WE MAY ALSO HAVE
TO WATCH THE FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM MOVING INTO THAT AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING A WEAKNESS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE,
LIKELY SOME SEMBLANCE OF A SHEAR AXIS. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL
STAY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST, BUT IT`S SOMETHING TO WATCH. HIGHS WILL
TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 90S TO NEAR 100 AS UPPER HEIGHTS FALL AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY. ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS LIKE THE WIND ALWAYS
BLOWS AROUND HERE, IT WILL BE NOTICEABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE A DEEPENING LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH.
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET, BUT THEY WILL STILL
REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT, WHICH WILL KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT: THESE DAYS WILL BE A RINSE AND NEAR REPEAT
OF TUESDAY`S WEATHER EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES.
SOME LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS COULD MOVE INTO THE FAR
WESTERN PANHANDLES EACH DAY, MAINLY WEST OF A LIBERAL TO HEREFORD
LINE, BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN HIGH AND DRY. A
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM (THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE WIND) OR TWO
CAN`T BE RULED OUT DURING THIS PERIOD, BUT BUOYANCY AND SHEAR WILL
REMAIN WEAK AND UNSUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: THERE ARE STILL SOME DETAILS TO BE IRONED OUT,
BUT MODELS GENERALLY SHOW A BROAD UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
PANHANDLES WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. ANOTHER FEATURE
THAT MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO HANDLE IS A CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT IS
FORECAST TO BECOME CUT-OFF ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE GFS
REMAINS FASTER WITH ITS EJECTION THAN THE ECMWF, BUT GIVEN THAT IT
WILL BE DISPLACED WELL AWAY FROM THE WESTERLIES, THE SLOWER ECMWF
SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE. THEREFORE, WE KEPT POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY. MORE UNCERTAINTY LURKS FOR SUNDAY AS THE ECMWF SHOWS A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. IF THIS OCCURS, WE`LL BE LOOKING AT
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO REMAIN LOW.

JACKSON

FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES TODAY AND TUESDAY. 20-FOOT SOUTHERLY WINDS
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS, PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER, NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DUE TO UNSUPPORTIVE FUELS. SOUTHERLY 20-FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 MPH WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT DURING THIS
PERIOD. THEREFORE, NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/13






000
FXUS64 KAMA 181039 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
539 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.AVIATION...
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. DO NOT
THINK THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT TO DHT...SO SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THERE TODAY. EAST WINDS AT GUY WILL VEER AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY BY MID DAY. AMA WILL HAVE SOUTHERLY
WINDS WHICH WILL GET GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHERLY TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SKIES WILL
REMAIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT: A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTHWEST AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT TRIGGERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS EARLIER THIS MORNING. OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
CONVECTION HAS CAUSED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS AND EVEN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AND/OR PUSH INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY SUNRISE.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON, 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 1 TO 1.5 C
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, SO HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE ABOUT 1 TO 3
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS SHOULD PUT MOST PLACES IN THE MID
90S TO LOWER 100S. A FEW HIGH-BASED CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON, AND A FEW OF THESE COULD DEVELOP INTO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 3 PM AND 10 PM. THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF ANY
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE NORTH OF A DALHART TO LIPSCOMB LINE WITH THE
MOST LIKELY AREA TO BE NORTHWEST OF A DALHART TO ELKHART LINE. NO
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED AS MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES WILL ONLY
INCREASE UP TO 1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK.
NONETHELESS, IT WON`T TAKE MUCH OF A CORE TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS UP
TO 50 MPH AS THE STORMS COLLAPSE DUE TO THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S TO NEAR 70.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: IT`S HARD TO GET EXCITED ABOUT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND
WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. DESPITE THIS, WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS STRAY INTO THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS NOT VERY
HIGH AS THE STEERING FLOW WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT. WE MAY ALSO HAVE
TO WATCH THE FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM MOVING INTO THAT AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING A WEAKNESS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE,
LIKELY SOME SEMBLANCE OF A SHEAR AXIS. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL
STAY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST, BUT IT`S SOMETHING TO WATCH. HIGHS WILL
TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 90S TO NEAR 100 AS UPPER HEIGHTS FALL AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY. ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS LIKE THE WIND ALWAYS
BLOWS AROUND HERE, IT WILL BE NOTICEABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE A DEEPENING LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH.
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET, BUT THEY WILL STILL
REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT, WHICH WILL KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT: THESE DAYS WILL BE A RINSE AND NEAR REPEAT
OF TUESDAY`S WEATHER EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES.
SOME LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS COULD MOVE INTO THE FAR
WESTERN PANHANDLES EACH DAY, MAINLY WEST OF A LIBERAL TO HEREFORD
LINE, BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN HIGH AND DRY. A
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM (THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE WIND) OR TWO
CAN`T BE RULED OUT DURING THIS PERIOD, BUT BUOYANCY AND SHEAR WILL
REMAIN WEAK AND UNSUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: THERE ARE STILL SOME DETAILS TO BE IRONED OUT,
BUT MODELS GENERALLY SHOW A BROAD UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
PANHANDLES WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. ANOTHER FEATURE
THAT MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO HANDLE IS A CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT IS
FORECAST TO BECOME CUT-OFF ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE GFS
REMAINS FASTER WITH ITS EJECTION THAN THE ECMWF, BUT GIVEN THAT IT
WILL BE DISPLACED WELL AWAY FROM THE WESTERLIES, THE SLOWER ECMWF
SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE. THEREFORE, WE KEPT POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY. MORE UNCERTAINTY LURKS FOR SUNDAY AS THE ECMWF SHOWS A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. IF THIS OCCURS, WE`LL BE LOOKING AT
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO REMAIN LOW.

JACKSON

FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES TODAY AND TUESDAY. 20-FOOT SOUTHERLY WINDS
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS, PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER, NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DUE TO UNSUPPORTIVE FUELS. SOUTHERLY 20-FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 MPH WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT DURING THIS
PERIOD. THEREFORE, NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/13







000
FXUS64 KAMA 180936
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
436 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT: A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTHWEST AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT TRIGGERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS EARLIER THIS MORNING. OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
CONVECTION HAS CAUSED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS AND EVEN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AND/OR PUSH INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY SUNRISE.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON, 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 1 TO 1.5 C
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, SO HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE ABOUT 1 TO 3
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS SHOULD PUT MOST PLACES IN THE MID
90S TO LOWER 100S. A FEW HIGH-BASED CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON, AND A FEW OF THESE COULD DEVELOP INTO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 3 PM AND 10 PM. THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF ANY
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE NORTH OF A DALHART TO LIPSCOMB LINE WITH THE
MOST LIKELY AREA TO BE NORTHWEST OF A DALHART TO ELKHART LINE. NO
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED AS MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES WILL ONLY
INCREASE UP TO 1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK.
NONETHELESS, IT WON`T TAKE MUCH OF A CORE TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS UP
TO 50 MPH AS THE STORMS COLLAPSE DUE TO THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S TO NEAR 70.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: IT`S HARD TO GET EXCITED ABOUT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND
WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. DESPITE THIS, WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS STRAY INTO THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS NOT VERY
HIGH AS THE STEERING FLOW WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT. WE MAY ALSO HAVE
TO WATCH THE FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM MOVING INTO THAT AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING A WEAKNESS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE,
LIKELY SOME SEMBLANCE OF A SHEAR AXIS. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL
STAY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST, BUT IT`S SOMETHING TO WATCH. HIGHS WILL
TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 90S TO NEAR 100 AS UPPER HEIGHTS FALL AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY. ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS LIKE THE WIND ALWAYS
BLOWS AROUND HERE, IT WILL BE NOTICEABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE A DEEPENING LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH.
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET, BUT THEY WILL STILL
REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT, WHICH WILL KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT: THESE DAYS WILL BE A RINSE AND NEAR REPEAT
OF TUESDAY`S WEATHER EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES.
SOME LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS COULD MOVE INTO THE FAR
WESTERN PANHANDLES EACH DAY, MAINLY WEST OF A LIBERAL TO HEREFORD
LINE, BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN HIGH AND DRY. A
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM (THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE WIND) OR TWO
CAN`T BE RULED OUT DURING THIS PERIOD, BUT BUOYANCY AND SHEAR WILL
REMAIN WEAK AND UNSUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: THERE ARE STILL SOME DETAILS TO BE IRONED OUT,
BUT MODELS GENERALLY SHOW A BROAD UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
PANHANDLES WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. ANOTHER FEATURE
THAT MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO HANDLE IS A CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT IS
FORECAST TO BECOME CUT-OFF ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE GFS
REMAINS FASTER WITH ITS EJECTION THAN THE ECMWF, BUT GIVEN THAT IT
WILL BE DISPLACED WELL AWAY FROM THE WESTERLIES, THE SLOWER ECMWF
SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE. THEREFORE, WE KEPT POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY. MORE UNCERTAINTY LURKS FOR SUNDAY AS THE ECMWF SHOWS A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. IF THIS OCCURS, WE`LL BE LOOKING AT
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO REMAIN LOW.

JACKSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES TODAY AND TUESDAY. 20-FOOT SOUTHERLY WINDS
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS, PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER, NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DUE TO UNSUPPORTIVE FUELS. SOUTHERLY 20-FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 MPH WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT DURING THIS
PERIOD. THEREFORE, NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                95  67  93  67  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                 102  68 100  70 100 /  20  20   5   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              96  64  96  65  95 /  20  20  20  20  20
BORGER TX                 100  70  97  72  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX             100  66  98  68  98 /   0   0   5   5  10
CANYON TX                  95  64  93  66  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               97  68  95  69  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 98  62  95  64  94 /   5   5  10  10  20
GUYMON OK                 101  66  98  68  98 /  20  10   5   5  10
HEREFORD TX                95  63  93  65  92 /   0   0   0   0   5
LIPSCOMB TX               100  69  99  72  97 /  10   5   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   97  67  93  69  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX               100  69  96  72  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX             101  69  97  72  96 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

LG/JJ






000
FXUS64 KAMA 180505 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1205 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 716 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CUMULUS FIELD IS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING...BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE QUITE SPARSE.  HAVE LOWERED POPS
TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...NO REAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.  LOW THUNDERSTORM POPS
CONTINUE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH
SUNDAY.  SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...NO
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO NON-
SUPPORTIVE FUELS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS.  RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL...WITH NO ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 180505 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1205 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 716 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CUMULUS FIELD IS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING...BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE QUITE SPARSE.  HAVE LOWERED POPS
TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...NO REAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.  LOW THUNDERSTORM POPS
CONTINUE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH
SUNDAY.  SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...NO
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO NON-
SUPPORTIVE FUELS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS.  RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL...WITH NO ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 180016 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
716 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CUMULUS FIELD IS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING...BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE QUITE SPARSE.  HAVE LOWERED POPS
TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...NO REAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.  LOW THUNDERSTORM POPS
CONTINUE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH
SUNDAY.  SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...NO
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO NON-
SUPPORTIVE FUELS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS.  RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL...WITH NO ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 180016 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
716 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CUMULUS FIELD IS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING...BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE QUITE SPARSE.  HAVE LOWERED POPS
TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...NO REAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.  LOW THUNDERSTORM POPS
CONTINUE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH
SUNDAY.  SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...NO
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO NON-
SUPPORTIVE FUELS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS.  RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL...WITH NO ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 172045
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
340 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CUMULUS FIELD IS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING...BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE QUITE SPARSE.  HAVE LOWERED POPS
TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...NO REAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.  LOW THUNDERSTORM POPS
CONTINUE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH
SUNDAY.  SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE.  03

COCKRELL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...NO
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO NON-
SUPPORTIVE FUELS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS.  RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL...WITH NO ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                66  96  66  94  67 /  10   5   5  10  20
BEAVER OK                  67 104  68 102  70 /  10  20  20  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              64  96  65  96  65 /  10  20  20  20  20
BORGER TX                  71 100  72  98  73 /  10   5  10  10  20
BOYS RANCH TX              65 100  66  98  69 /  10  10  10  10  20
CANYON TX                  64  97  63  94  66 /  10   5   5  10  20
CLARENDON TX               69  97  69  95  70 /  10   0   5  10  10
DALHART TX                 60  97  61  95  64 /  10  10  20  20  20
GUYMON OK                  66 101  66  99  68 /  10  20  20  20  20
HEREFORD TX                62  96  62  94  65 /  10   5   5  10  20
LIPSCOMB TX                67 100  68  99  73 /  10  10  10  20  20
PAMPA TX                   67  97  67  95  69 /  10   5   5  10  10
SHAMROCK TX                67 100  68  96  72 /  10   0   5  10  10
WELLINGTON TX              68 101  69  97  72 /  10   0   5  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

05/03






000
FXUS64 KAMA 172045
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
340 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CUMULUS FIELD IS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING...BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE QUITE SPARSE.  HAVE LOWERED POPS
TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...NO REAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.  LOW THUNDERSTORM POPS
CONTINUE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH
SUNDAY.  SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE.  03

COCKRELL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...NO
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO NON-
SUPPORTIVE FUELS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS.  RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL...WITH NO ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                66  96  66  94  67 /  10   5   5  10  20
BEAVER OK                  67 104  68 102  70 /  10  20  20  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              64  96  65  96  65 /  10  20  20  20  20
BORGER TX                  71 100  72  98  73 /  10   5  10  10  20
BOYS RANCH TX              65 100  66  98  69 /  10  10  10  10  20
CANYON TX                  64  97  63  94  66 /  10   5   5  10  20
CLARENDON TX               69  97  69  95  70 /  10   0   5  10  10
DALHART TX                 60  97  61  95  64 /  10  10  20  20  20
GUYMON OK                  66 101  66  99  68 /  10  20  20  20  20
HEREFORD TX                62  96  62  94  65 /  10   5   5  10  20
LIPSCOMB TX                67 100  68  99  73 /  10  10  10  20  20
PAMPA TX                   67  97  67  95  69 /  10   5   5  10  10
SHAMROCK TX                67 100  68  96  72 /  10   0   5  10  10
WELLINGTON TX              68 101  69  97  72 /  10   0   5  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

05/03





000
FXUS64 KAMA 171724 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1224 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
VALID TAF FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP AND IMPACT THE
TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING HOWEVER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
BE MUCH LESS THAN YESTERDAY SO CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION THUNDER
IN THE TAFS. BUT LIKE YESTERDAY IF STORMS DO MOVE OVER A
TERMINAL...HEAVY RAINFALL CAN CAUSE VISBYS TO LOWER TO MVFR OR EVEN
IFR BRIEFLY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT /AT OR UNDER 10 KTS/ THROUGH 18Z
MONDAY.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KTS
EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH
THE CHANCES FOR ANY TAF SITE TO BE IMPACTED ARE VERY SLIM. BRIEFLY
GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY COULD ACCOMPANY ANY PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN. A LOW LEVEL JET SUNDAY NIGHT COULD BRING PERIODS OF GUSTY
WINDS TO KGUY.

NF

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY BE A LITTLE LOWER ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES TODAY AND AGAIN MONDAY COMPARED TO THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WEAK AND THE SUBTROPICAL
PLUME WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOME AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER.

TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL SEE DAILY CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AS THE
SUBTROPICAL PLUME IS BROUGHT NORTHWARD OVER THIS AREA. THIS PLUME OF
MOISTURE SHOULD BE BROUGHT NORTHWARD BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO
OUR EAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS
FORECAST.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS FORECAST.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

05/03







000
FXUS64 KAMA 171724 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1224 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
VALID TAF FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP AND IMPACT THE
TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING HOWEVER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
BE MUCH LESS THAN YESTERDAY SO CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION THUNDER
IN THE TAFS. BUT LIKE YESTERDAY IF STORMS DO MOVE OVER A
TERMINAL...HEAVY RAINFALL CAN CAUSE VISBYS TO LOWER TO MVFR OR EVEN
IFR BRIEFLY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT /AT OR UNDER 10 KTS/ THROUGH 18Z
MONDAY.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KTS
EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH
THE CHANCES FOR ANY TAF SITE TO BE IMPACTED ARE VERY SLIM. BRIEFLY
GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY COULD ACCOMPANY ANY PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN. A LOW LEVEL JET SUNDAY NIGHT COULD BRING PERIODS OF GUSTY
WINDS TO KGUY.

NF

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY BE A LITTLE LOWER ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES TODAY AND AGAIN MONDAY COMPARED TO THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WEAK AND THE SUBTROPICAL
PLUME WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOME AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER.

TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL SEE DAILY CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AS THE
SUBTROPICAL PLUME IS BROUGHT NORTHWARD OVER THIS AREA. THIS PLUME OF
MOISTURE SHOULD BE BROUGHT NORTHWARD BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO
OUR EAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS
FORECAST.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS FORECAST.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

05/03






000
FXUS64 KAMA 171147 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
647 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KTS
EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH
THE CHANCES FOR ANY TAF SITE TO BE IMPACTED ARE VERY SLIM. BRIEFLY
GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY COULD ACCOMPANY ANY PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN. A LOW LEVEL JET SUNDAY NIGHT COULD BRING PERIODS OF GUSTY
WINDS TO KGUY.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY BE A LITTLE LOWER ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES TODAY AND AGAIN MONDAY COMPARED TO THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WEAK AND THE SUBTROPICAL
PLUME WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOME AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER.

TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL SEE DAILY CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AS THE
SUBTROPICAL PLUME IS BROUGHT NORTHWARD OVER THIS AREA. THIS PLUME OF
MOISTURE SHOULD BE BROUGHT NORTHWARD BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO
OUR EAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS
FORECAST.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS FORECAST.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/15







000
FXUS64 KAMA 171147 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
647 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KTS
EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH
THE CHANCES FOR ANY TAF SITE TO BE IMPACTED ARE VERY SLIM. BRIEFLY
GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY COULD ACCOMPANY ANY PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN. A LOW LEVEL JET SUNDAY NIGHT COULD BRING PERIODS OF GUSTY
WINDS TO KGUY.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY BE A LITTLE LOWER ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES TODAY AND AGAIN MONDAY COMPARED TO THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WEAK AND THE SUBTROPICAL
PLUME WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOME AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER.

TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL SEE DAILY CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AS THE
SUBTROPICAL PLUME IS BROUGHT NORTHWARD OVER THIS AREA. THIS PLUME OF
MOISTURE SHOULD BE BROUGHT NORTHWARD BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO
OUR EAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS
FORECAST.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS FORECAST.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/15






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