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000
FXUS64 KAMA 202023
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
323 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A VORT LOBE FROM THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL KEEP
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

TUESDAY DAYTIME SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND WARM. BY TUESDAY EVENING WE
COULD SEE PRECIP SNEAK ONCE AGAIN INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. MODELS VARY A LITTLE ON IF THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT A
GREATER PART OF THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT THERE IS
CONTINUED AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP SHOULD BE WELL UNDERWAY BY THE NOON
HOUR. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A LIMITED AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR TO WORK WITH DURING THE DAY SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES TO 30KT
SO A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL
BRING THESE STORMS CHANCES WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING TO BRING AN END TO THE PRECIP.

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FROM THE
70S ON THURSDAY TO THE MID 80S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                52  74  52  70  51 /  10  10  10  40  40
BEAVER OK                  51  79  54  77  51 /   0   0   5  40  50
BOISE CITY OK              47  74  49  70  47 /  10  10  10  40  20
BORGER TX                  53  77  55  74  54 /  10   5  10  40  40
BOYS RANCH TX              50  75  51  72  50 /  10  10  10  40  30
CANYON TX                  51  74  51  69  50 /  20  10  10  40  40
CLARENDON TX               54  78  52  74  51 /  10  10  10  40  40
DALHART TX                 47  75  50  71  47 /  10  10  10  40  30
GUYMON OK                  50  78  52  75  50 /   5   5   5  40  50
HEREFORD TX                50  73  50  70  49 /  20  10  20  40  30
LIPSCOMB TX                52  79  55  75  53 /   0   0   5  40  50
PAMPA TX                   52  77  52  71  51 /  10   5   5  40  40
SHAMROCK TX                53  79  54  75  52 /  10  10  10  30  40
WELLINGTON TX              55  80  56  76  54 /  10  10  10  30  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/14






000
FXUS64 KAMA 202023
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
323 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A VORT LOBE FROM THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL KEEP
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

TUESDAY DAYTIME SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND WARM. BY TUESDAY EVENING WE
COULD SEE PRECIP SNEAK ONCE AGAIN INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. MODELS VARY A LITTLE ON IF THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT A
GREATER PART OF THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT THERE IS
CONTINUED AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP SHOULD BE WELL UNDERWAY BY THE NOON
HOUR. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A LIMITED AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR TO WORK WITH DURING THE DAY SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES TO 30KT
SO A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL
BRING THESE STORMS CHANCES WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING TO BRING AN END TO THE PRECIP.

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FROM THE
70S ON THURSDAY TO THE MID 80S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                52  74  52  70  51 /  10  10  10  40  40
BEAVER OK                  51  79  54  77  51 /   0   0   5  40  50
BOISE CITY OK              47  74  49  70  47 /  10  10  10  40  20
BORGER TX                  53  77  55  74  54 /  10   5  10  40  40
BOYS RANCH TX              50  75  51  72  50 /  10  10  10  40  30
CANYON TX                  51  74  51  69  50 /  20  10  10  40  40
CLARENDON TX               54  78  52  74  51 /  10  10  10  40  40
DALHART TX                 47  75  50  71  47 /  10  10  10  40  30
GUYMON OK                  50  78  52  75  50 /   5   5   5  40  50
HEREFORD TX                50  73  50  70  49 /  20  10  20  40  30
LIPSCOMB TX                52  79  55  75  53 /   0   0   5  40  50
PAMPA TX                   52  77  52  71  51 /  10   5   5  40  40
SHAMROCK TX                53  79  54  75  52 /  10  10  10  30  40
WELLINGTON TX              55  80  56  76  54 /  10  10  10  30  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/14







000
FXUS64 KAMA 201638 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1138 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THIS FORECAST AND
THEY WILL VEER FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST TO SOUTH. SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. HOWEVER...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT SOME LOW CLOUDS OR
FOG AT THE AMA TAF SITE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE NOT INSERTED THIS
POSSIBILITY IN THE TAF JUST YET AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION.../12Z TAFS/
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BRIEF LIGHT FOG WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES COULD DEVELOP THROUGH 14Z AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING...
ESPECIALLY AT KAMA AND KDHT...BUT NOT CONFIDENT TO INCLUDE AT THIS
TIME.

KNS

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

FOR TODAY...INSERTED PATCHY FOG ACROSS SWRN AND SCNTRL TX PNHDL TIL
MID MORNING BASED ON CURERNT OBSERVATIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
NRN MEXICO MAY SEND A MINOR VORT LOBE CLOSE ENUF TO THE SW AND SCNTRL
PART OF THE TX PNHDL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO CAUSE AT
LEAST A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. SLGT CHC POPS FOR THIS
AREA DURG THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ARE PLAUSIBLE.

TUESDAY AND MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN DRY ACROSS
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A STRONGER WRN US UPPER LEVEL TROF...WHICH
IS NOW PROGGED BY ALL SHORT RANGE MODELS TO BE FASTER MOVING ACROSS THE
CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. CONSIDERING GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE WED AND EARLY WED
EVENING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WED NIGHT.
HAVE DONE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS FOR WED AND WED NIGHT TO
BETTER ACCOUNT FOR LATEST MODEL TRENDS. RETAINED SLGT CHC POPS FOR SW
TX PNHDL FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. BENIGN WEATHER SEEN FOR THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR STRONGER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT APPROACHES BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK EXIST. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

ANDRADE/BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/14







000
FXUS64 KAMA 201638 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1138 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THIS FORECAST AND
THEY WILL VEER FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST TO SOUTH. SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. HOWEVER...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT SOME LOW CLOUDS OR
FOG AT THE AMA TAF SITE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE NOT INSERTED THIS
POSSIBILITY IN THE TAF JUST YET AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION.../12Z TAFS/
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BRIEF LIGHT FOG WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES COULD DEVELOP THROUGH 14Z AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING...
ESPECIALLY AT KAMA AND KDHT...BUT NOT CONFIDENT TO INCLUDE AT THIS
TIME.

KNS

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

FOR TODAY...INSERTED PATCHY FOG ACROSS SWRN AND SCNTRL TX PNHDL TIL
MID MORNING BASED ON CURERNT OBSERVATIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
NRN MEXICO MAY SEND A MINOR VORT LOBE CLOSE ENUF TO THE SW AND SCNTRL
PART OF THE TX PNHDL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO CAUSE AT
LEAST A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. SLGT CHC POPS FOR THIS
AREA DURG THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ARE PLAUSIBLE.

TUESDAY AND MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN DRY ACROSS
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A STRONGER WRN US UPPER LEVEL TROF...WHICH
IS NOW PROGGED BY ALL SHORT RANGE MODELS TO BE FASTER MOVING ACROSS THE
CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. CONSIDERING GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE WED AND EARLY WED
EVENING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WED NIGHT.
HAVE DONE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS FOR WED AND WED NIGHT TO
BETTER ACCOUNT FOR LATEST MODEL TRENDS. RETAINED SLGT CHC POPS FOR SW
TX PNHDL FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. BENIGN WEATHER SEEN FOR THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR STRONGER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT APPROACHES BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK EXIST. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

ANDRADE/BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/14






000
FXUS64 KAMA 201158 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
658 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z TAFS/
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BRIEF LIGHT FOG WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES COULD DEVELOP THROUGH 14Z AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING...
ESPECIALLY AT KAMA AND KDHT...BUT NOT CONFIDENT TO INCLUDE AT THIS
TIME.

KNS

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

FOR TODAY...INSERTED PATCHY FOG ACROSS SWRN AND SCNTRL TX PNHDL TIL
MID MORNING BASED ON CURERNT OBSERVATIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
NRN MEXICO MAY SEND A MINOR VORT LOBE CLOSE ENUF TO THE SW AND SCNTRL
PART OF THE TX PNHDL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO CAUSE AT
LEAST A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. SLGT CHC POPS FOR THIS
AREA DURG THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ARE PLAUSIBLE.

TUESDAY AND MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN DRY ACROSS
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A STRONGER WRN US UPPER LEVEL TROF...WHICH
IS NOW PROGGED BY ALL SHORT RANGE MODELS TO BE FASTER MOVING ACROSS THE
CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. CONSIDERING GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE WED AND EARLY WED
EVENING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WED NIGHT.
HAVE DONE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS FOR WED AND WED NIGHT TO
BETTER ACCOUNT FOR LATEST MODEL TRENDS. RETAINED SLGT CHC POPS FOR SW
TX PNHDL FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. BENIGN WEATHER SEEN FOR THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR STRONGER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT APPROACHES BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK EXIST. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

ANDRADE/BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KAMA 201158 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
658 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z TAFS/
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BRIEF LIGHT FOG WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES COULD DEVELOP THROUGH 14Z AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING...
ESPECIALLY AT KAMA AND KDHT...BUT NOT CONFIDENT TO INCLUDE AT THIS
TIME.

KNS

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

FOR TODAY...INSERTED PATCHY FOG ACROSS SWRN AND SCNTRL TX PNHDL TIL
MID MORNING BASED ON CURERNT OBSERVATIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
NRN MEXICO MAY SEND A MINOR VORT LOBE CLOSE ENUF TO THE SW AND SCNTRL
PART OF THE TX PNHDL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO CAUSE AT
LEAST A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. SLGT CHC POPS FOR THIS
AREA DURG THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ARE PLAUSIBLE.

TUESDAY AND MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN DRY ACROSS
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A STRONGER WRN US UPPER LEVEL TROF...WHICH
IS NOW PROGGED BY ALL SHORT RANGE MODELS TO BE FASTER MOVING ACROSS THE
CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. CONSIDERING GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE WED AND EARLY WED
EVENING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WED NIGHT.
HAVE DONE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS FOR WED AND WED NIGHT TO
BETTER ACCOUNT FOR LATEST MODEL TRENDS. RETAINED SLGT CHC POPS FOR SW
TX PNHDL FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. BENIGN WEATHER SEEN FOR THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR STRONGER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT APPROACHES BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK EXIST. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

ANDRADE/BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KAMA 200909
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
409 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY...INSERTED PATCHY FOG ACROSS SWRN AND SCNTRL TX PNHDL TIL
MID MORNING BASED ON CURERNT OBSERVATIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
NRN MEXICO MAY SEND A MINOR VORT LOBE CLOSE ENUF TO THE SW AND SCNTRL
PART OF THE TX PNHDL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO CAUSE AT
LEAST A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. SLGT CHC POPS FOR THIS
AREA DURG THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ARE PLAUSIBLE.

TUESDAY AND MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN DRY ACROSS
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A STRONGER WRN US UPPER LEVEL TROF...WHICH
IS NOW PROGGED BY ALL SHORT RANGE MODELS TO BE FASTER MOVING ACROSS THE
CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. CONSIDERING GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE WED AND EARLY WED
EVENING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WED NIGHT.
HAVE DONE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS FOR WED AND WED NIGHT TO
BETTER ACCOUNT FOR LATEST MODEL TRENDS. RETAINED SLGT CHC POPS FOR SW
TX PNHDL FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. BENIGN WEATHER SEEN FOR THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR STRONGER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT APPROACHES BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK EXIST. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

ANDRADE/BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                75  52  74  51  70 /  10  10   5  10  40
BEAVER OK                  77  52  78  53  74 /   5   0   0   5  40
BOISE CITY OK              73  48  75  49  70 /  10  10   5  10  40
BORGER TX                  77  55  77  55  72 /   5   5   5  10  40
BOYS RANCH TX              76  50  75  50  70 /  10  10  10  10  40
CANYON TX                  75  51  74  50  70 /  20  20  10  10  40
CLARENDON TX               79  53  77  53  72 /  10  10   5  10  40
DALHART TX                 75  47  75  48  71 /  10  10   5  10  40
GUYMON OK                  76  51  78  51  73 /   5   5   0   5  40
HEREFORD TX                74  50  73  50  70 /  20  20  10  20  40
LIPSCOMB TX                78  52  79  53  74 /   5   0   0   5  40
PAMPA TX                   77  52  77  53  72 /   5   5   5   5  40
SHAMROCK TX                81  53  78  54  74 /  10  10   5  10  30
WELLINGTON TX              82  55  80  55  74 /  10  10   5  10  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 200909
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
409 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY...INSERTED PATCHY FOG ACROSS SWRN AND SCNTRL TX PNHDL TIL
MID MORNING BASED ON CURERNT OBSERVATIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
NRN MEXICO MAY SEND A MINOR VORT LOBE CLOSE ENUF TO THE SW AND SCNTRL
PART OF THE TX PNHDL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO CAUSE AT
LEAST A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. SLGT CHC POPS FOR THIS
AREA DURG THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ARE PLAUSIBLE.

TUESDAY AND MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN DRY ACROSS
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A STRONGER WRN US UPPER LEVEL TROF...WHICH
IS NOW PROGGED BY ALL SHORT RANGE MODELS TO BE FASTER MOVING ACROSS THE
CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. CONSIDERING GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE WED AND EARLY WED
EVENING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WED NIGHT.
HAVE DONE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS FOR WED AND WED NIGHT TO
BETTER ACCOUNT FOR LATEST MODEL TRENDS. RETAINED SLGT CHC POPS FOR SW
TX PNHDL FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. BENIGN WEATHER SEEN FOR THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR STRONGER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT APPROACHES BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK EXIST. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

ANDRADE/BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                75  52  74  51  70 /  10  10   5  10  40
BEAVER OK                  77  52  78  53  74 /   5   0   0   5  40
BOISE CITY OK              73  48  75  49  70 /  10  10   5  10  40
BORGER TX                  77  55  77  55  72 /   5   5   5  10  40
BOYS RANCH TX              76  50  75  50  70 /  10  10  10  10  40
CANYON TX                  75  51  74  50  70 /  20  20  10  10  40
CLARENDON TX               79  53  77  53  72 /  10  10   5  10  40
DALHART TX                 75  47  75  48  71 /  10  10   5  10  40
GUYMON OK                  76  51  78  51  73 /   5   5   0   5  40
HEREFORD TX                74  50  73  50  70 /  20  20  10  20  40
LIPSCOMB TX                78  52  79  53  74 /   5   0   0   5  40
PAMPA TX                   77  52  77  53  72 /   5   5   5   5  40
SHAMROCK TX                81  53  78  54  74 /  10  10   5  10  30
WELLINGTON TX              82  55  80  55  74 /  10  10   5  10  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 200524
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1224 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE NEEDED. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY VEER THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND SPEEDS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE SOUTHWEST OF ALL TAF SITES.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN MEXICO HAS KEPT THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE UNDER CLOUDY SKIES WHILE THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE HAS BEEN
MOSTLY CLEAR. VORT LOBES SENT OFF FROM THIS CLOSED LOW WILL KEEP THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE ALIVE
THROUGH TUESDAY. ONE SUCH LOBE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ANY STORM WHICH FORMS WILL STAY BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING REMAIN THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS
WEEK TO SEE PRECIP AREA WIDE. A PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO WEDNESDAY MORNING A PROVIDE LARGE
SCALE FORCING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A 35KT-40KT LOW LEVEL JET
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BRING IN AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE PANHANDLES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CONVECTION TO
INITIATE THROUGHOUT THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
WITH FORECAST INSTABILITY OF 500-1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AROUND 25KT COULD ALLOW US TO SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS...HOWEVER WE DO
NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. FORECAST PWATS ARE
APPROACHING THE CLIMATOLOGICAL +2SD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR SO WE COULD
SEE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET.

THERE WAS A DRASTIC SWING WITH THE 12 GFS WHICH PLACES IT IS STARK
CONTRAST TO OTHER MODELS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. DUE TO THIS, THE FORECAST
STICKS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS MEANS THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM
WILL BECOME A CLOSED LOW AND DIVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN US AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BE THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING SO HAVE CUT OFF PRECIP
CHANCES BY THIS POINT. LOW TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
THE GFS WHICH DOESN`T BRING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL FROM THURSDAY ONWARD AND HIGH TEMPERATES WILL
WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 200524
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1224 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE NEEDED. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY VEER THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND SPEEDS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE SOUTHWEST OF ALL TAF SITES.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN MEXICO HAS KEPT THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE UNDER CLOUDY SKIES WHILE THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE HAS BEEN
MOSTLY CLEAR. VORT LOBES SENT OFF FROM THIS CLOSED LOW WILL KEEP THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE ALIVE
THROUGH TUESDAY. ONE SUCH LOBE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ANY STORM WHICH FORMS WILL STAY BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING REMAIN THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS
WEEK TO SEE PRECIP AREA WIDE. A PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO WEDNESDAY MORNING A PROVIDE LARGE
SCALE FORCING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A 35KT-40KT LOW LEVEL JET
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BRING IN AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE PANHANDLES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CONVECTION TO
INITIATE THROUGHOUT THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
WITH FORECAST INSTABILITY OF 500-1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AROUND 25KT COULD ALLOW US TO SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS...HOWEVER WE DO
NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. FORECAST PWATS ARE
APPROACHING THE CLIMATOLOGICAL +2SD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR SO WE COULD
SEE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET.

THERE WAS A DRASTIC SWING WITH THE 12 GFS WHICH PLACES IT IS STARK
CONTRAST TO OTHER MODELS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. DUE TO THIS, THE FORECAST
STICKS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS MEANS THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM
WILL BECOME A CLOSED LOW AND DIVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN US AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BE THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING SO HAVE CUT OFF PRECIP
CHANCES BY THIS POINT. LOW TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
THE GFS WHICH DOESN`T BRING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL FROM THURSDAY ONWARD AND HIGH TEMPERATES WILL
WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 192306 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
606 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIE DOWN WITH THE SETTING SUN ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. VERY SLIM CHANCE THAT STORMS IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO COULD
STAY TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO IMPACT KDHT, BUT WILL NOT MENTION THIS
IN THE TAFS AS THE CHANCE LOOKS VERY LOW. SURFACE TROUGH WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO VEER OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH CONTINUING HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA.

MOULTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN MEXICO HAS KEPT THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE UNDER CLOUDY SKIES WHILE THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE HAS BEEN
MOSTLY CLEAR. VORT LOBES SENT OFF FROM THIS CLOSED LOW WILL KEEP THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE ALIVE
THROUGH TUESDAY. ONE SUCH LOBE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ANY STORM WHICH FORMS WILL STAY BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING REMAIN THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS
WEEK TO SEE PRECIP AREA WIDE. A PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO WEDNESDAY MORNING A PROVIDE LARGE
SCALE FORCING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A 35KT-40KT LOW LEVEL JET
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BRING IN AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE PANHANDLES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CONVECTION TO
INITIATE THROUGHOUT THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
WITH FORECAST INSTABILITY OF 500-1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AROUND 25KT COULD ALLOW US TO SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS...HOWEVER WE DO
NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. FORECAST PWATS ARE
APPROACHING THE CLIMATOLOGICAL +2SD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR SO WE COULD
SEE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET.

THERE WAS A DRASTIC SWING WITH THE 12 GFS WHICH PLACES IT IS STARK
CONTRAST TO OTHER MODELS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. DUE TO THIS, THE FORECAST
STICKS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS MEANS THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM
WILL BECOME A CLOSED LOW AND DIVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN US AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BE THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING SO HAVE CUT OFF PRECIP
CHANCES BY THIS POINT. LOW TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
THE GFS WHICH DOESN`T BRING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL FROM THURSDAY ONWARD AND HIGH TEMPERATES WILL
WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

19/03






000
FXUS64 KAMA 192306 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
606 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIE DOWN WITH THE SETTING SUN ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. VERY SLIM CHANCE THAT STORMS IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO COULD
STAY TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO IMPACT KDHT, BUT WILL NOT MENTION THIS
IN THE TAFS AS THE CHANCE LOOKS VERY LOW. SURFACE TROUGH WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO VEER OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH CONTINUING HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA.

MOULTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN MEXICO HAS KEPT THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE UNDER CLOUDY SKIES WHILE THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE HAS BEEN
MOSTLY CLEAR. VORT LOBES SENT OFF FROM THIS CLOSED LOW WILL KEEP THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE ALIVE
THROUGH TUESDAY. ONE SUCH LOBE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ANY STORM WHICH FORMS WILL STAY BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING REMAIN THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS
WEEK TO SEE PRECIP AREA WIDE. A PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO WEDNESDAY MORNING A PROVIDE LARGE
SCALE FORCING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A 35KT-40KT LOW LEVEL JET
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BRING IN AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE PANHANDLES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CONVECTION TO
INITIATE THROUGHOUT THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
WITH FORECAST INSTABILITY OF 500-1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AROUND 25KT COULD ALLOW US TO SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS...HOWEVER WE DO
NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. FORECAST PWATS ARE
APPROACHING THE CLIMATOLOGICAL +2SD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR SO WE COULD
SEE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET.

THERE WAS A DRASTIC SWING WITH THE 12 GFS WHICH PLACES IT IS STARK
CONTRAST TO OTHER MODELS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. DUE TO THIS, THE FORECAST
STICKS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS MEANS THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM
WILL BECOME A CLOSED LOW AND DIVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN US AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BE THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING SO HAVE CUT OFF PRECIP
CHANCES BY THIS POINT. LOW TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
THE GFS WHICH DOESN`T BRING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL FROM THURSDAY ONWARD AND HIGH TEMPERATES WILL
WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

19/03







000
FXUS64 KAMA 192306 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
606 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIE DOWN WITH THE SETTING SUN ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. VERY SLIM CHANCE THAT STORMS IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO COULD
STAY TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO IMPACT KDHT, BUT WILL NOT MENTION THIS
IN THE TAFS AS THE CHANCE LOOKS VERY LOW. SURFACE TROUGH WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO VEER OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH CONTINUING HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA.

MOULTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN MEXICO HAS KEPT THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE UNDER CLOUDY SKIES WHILE THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE HAS BEEN
MOSTLY CLEAR. VORT LOBES SENT OFF FROM THIS CLOSED LOW WILL KEEP THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE ALIVE
THROUGH TUESDAY. ONE SUCH LOBE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ANY STORM WHICH FORMS WILL STAY BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING REMAIN THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS
WEEK TO SEE PRECIP AREA WIDE. A PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO WEDNESDAY MORNING A PROVIDE LARGE
SCALE FORCING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A 35KT-40KT LOW LEVEL JET
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BRING IN AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE PANHANDLES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CONVECTION TO
INITIATE THROUGHOUT THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
WITH FORECAST INSTABILITY OF 500-1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AROUND 25KT COULD ALLOW US TO SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS...HOWEVER WE DO
NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. FORECAST PWATS ARE
APPROACHING THE CLIMATOLOGICAL +2SD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR SO WE COULD
SEE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET.

THERE WAS A DRASTIC SWING WITH THE 12 GFS WHICH PLACES IT IS STARK
CONTRAST TO OTHER MODELS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. DUE TO THIS, THE FORECAST
STICKS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS MEANS THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM
WILL BECOME A CLOSED LOW AND DIVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN US AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BE THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING SO HAVE CUT OFF PRECIP
CHANCES BY THIS POINT. LOW TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
THE GFS WHICH DOESN`T BRING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL FROM THURSDAY ONWARD AND HIGH TEMPERATES WILL
WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

19/03






000
FXUS64 KAMA 192306 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
606 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIE DOWN WITH THE SETTING SUN ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. VERY SLIM CHANCE THAT STORMS IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO COULD
STAY TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO IMPACT KDHT, BUT WILL NOT MENTION THIS
IN THE TAFS AS THE CHANCE LOOKS VERY LOW. SURFACE TROUGH WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO VEER OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH CONTINUING HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA.

MOULTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN MEXICO HAS KEPT THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE UNDER CLOUDY SKIES WHILE THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE HAS BEEN
MOSTLY CLEAR. VORT LOBES SENT OFF FROM THIS CLOSED LOW WILL KEEP THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE ALIVE
THROUGH TUESDAY. ONE SUCH LOBE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ANY STORM WHICH FORMS WILL STAY BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING REMAIN THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS
WEEK TO SEE PRECIP AREA WIDE. A PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO WEDNESDAY MORNING A PROVIDE LARGE
SCALE FORCING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A 35KT-40KT LOW LEVEL JET
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BRING IN AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE PANHANDLES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CONVECTION TO
INITIATE THROUGHOUT THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
WITH FORECAST INSTABILITY OF 500-1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AROUND 25KT COULD ALLOW US TO SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS...HOWEVER WE DO
NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. FORECAST PWATS ARE
APPROACHING THE CLIMATOLOGICAL +2SD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR SO WE COULD
SEE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET.

THERE WAS A DRASTIC SWING WITH THE 12 GFS WHICH PLACES IT IS STARK
CONTRAST TO OTHER MODELS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. DUE TO THIS, THE FORECAST
STICKS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS MEANS THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM
WILL BECOME A CLOSED LOW AND DIVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN US AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BE THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING SO HAVE CUT OFF PRECIP
CHANCES BY THIS POINT. LOW TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
THE GFS WHICH DOESN`T BRING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL FROM THURSDAY ONWARD AND HIGH TEMPERATES WILL
WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

19/03







000
FXUS64 KAMA 192038
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
338 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN MEXICO HAS KEPT THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE UNDER CLOUDY SKIES WHILE THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE HAS BEEN
MOSTLY CLEAR. VORT LOBES SENT OFF FROM THIS CLOSED LOW WILL KEEP THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE ALIVE
THROUGH TUESDAY. ONE SUCH LOBE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ANY STORM WHICH FORMS WILL STAY BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING REMAIN THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS
WEEK TO SEE PRECIP AREA WIDE. A PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO WEDNESDAY MORNING A PROVIDE LARGE
SCALE FORCING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A 35KT-40KT LOW LEVEL JET
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BRING IN AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE PANHANDLES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CONVECTION TO
INITIATE THROUGHOUT THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
WITH FORECAST INSTABILITY OF 500-1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AROUND 25KT COULD ALLOW US TO SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS...HOWEVER WE DO
NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. FORECAST PWATS ARE
APPROACHING THE CLIMATOLOGICAL +2SD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR SO WE COULD
SEE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET.

THERE WAS A DRASTIC SWING WITH THE 12 GFS WHICH PLACES IT IS STARK
CONTRAST TO OTHER MODELS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. DUE TO THIS, THE FORECAST
STICKS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS MEANS THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM
WILL BECOME A CLOSED LOW AND DIVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN US AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BE THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING SO HAVE CUT OFF PRECIP
CHANCES BY THIS POINT. LOW TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
THE GFS WHICH DOESN`T BRING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL FROM THURSDAY ONWARD AND HIGH TEMPERATES WILL
WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                53  77  53  75  54 /  10  20  20   5  10
BEAVER OK                  52  80  51  81  53 /  10   0   0   0   5
BOISE CITY OK              50  74  49  75  52 /  10  10  10   5   5
BORGER TX                  56  80  55  79  57 /  10  10  10   5  10
BOYS RANCH TX              51  78  51  76  53 /  10  20  20  10  10
CANYON TX                  53  77  51  75  52 /  10  20  20  10  10
CLARENDON TX               53  82  54  79  54 /  10  20  20   5  10
DALHART TX                 50  77  50  75  53 /  10  20  20   5  10
GUYMON OK                  52  79  51  79  54 /  10   5   5   0   5
HEREFORD TX                51  77  50  74  52 /  10  20  20  10  20
LIPSCOMB TX                55  81  54  81  55 /  10   5   5   0   5
PAMPA TX                   53  78  53  77  53 /  10  10  10   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                54  82  55  80  54 /  10  10  10   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              57  83  58  81  58 /  10  10  10   5  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/14







000
FXUS64 KAMA 192038
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
338 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN MEXICO HAS KEPT THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE UNDER CLOUDY SKIES WHILE THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE HAS BEEN
MOSTLY CLEAR. VORT LOBES SENT OFF FROM THIS CLOSED LOW WILL KEEP THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE ALIVE
THROUGH TUESDAY. ONE SUCH LOBE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ANY STORM WHICH FORMS WILL STAY BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING REMAIN THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS
WEEK TO SEE PRECIP AREA WIDE. A PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO WEDNESDAY MORNING A PROVIDE LARGE
SCALE FORCING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A 35KT-40KT LOW LEVEL JET
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BRING IN AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE PANHANDLES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CONVECTION TO
INITIATE THROUGHOUT THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
WITH FORECAST INSTABILITY OF 500-1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AROUND 25KT COULD ALLOW US TO SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS...HOWEVER WE DO
NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. FORECAST PWATS ARE
APPROACHING THE CLIMATOLOGICAL +2SD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR SO WE COULD
SEE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET.

THERE WAS A DRASTIC SWING WITH THE 12 GFS WHICH PLACES IT IS STARK
CONTRAST TO OTHER MODELS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. DUE TO THIS, THE FORECAST
STICKS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS MEANS THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM
WILL BECOME A CLOSED LOW AND DIVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN US AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BE THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING SO HAVE CUT OFF PRECIP
CHANCES BY THIS POINT. LOW TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
THE GFS WHICH DOESN`T BRING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL FROM THURSDAY ONWARD AND HIGH TEMPERATES WILL
WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                53  77  53  75  54 /  10  20  20   5  10
BEAVER OK                  52  80  51  81  53 /  10   0   0   0   5
BOISE CITY OK              50  74  49  75  52 /  10  10  10   5   5
BORGER TX                  56  80  55  79  57 /  10  10  10   5  10
BOYS RANCH TX              51  78  51  76  53 /  10  20  20  10  10
CANYON TX                  53  77  51  75  52 /  10  20  20  10  10
CLARENDON TX               53  82  54  79  54 /  10  20  20   5  10
DALHART TX                 50  77  50  75  53 /  10  20  20   5  10
GUYMON OK                  52  79  51  79  54 /  10   5   5   0   5
HEREFORD TX                51  77  50  74  52 /  10  20  20  10  20
LIPSCOMB TX                55  81  54  81  55 /  10   5   5   0   5
PAMPA TX                   53  78  53  77  53 /  10  10  10   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                54  82  55  80  54 /  10  10  10   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              57  83  58  81  58 /  10  10  10   5  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/14






000
FXUS64 KAMA 191749 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1249 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...BEFORE DECREASING AGAIN BY MONDAY
MORNING. SOME SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS HAVE MADE THEIR WAY TO THE AMA
TAF SITE...BUT BELIEVE THAT THESE WILL NOT MAKE A CIG THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL THEN
VEER TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...S TO SW WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT BY LATE THIS
MORNING AND PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE
DIMINISHING BY 00Z MONDAY. PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS EXPECTED DURG THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A QUIET NIGHT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EARLY MORNING WITH
A FEW LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. TODAY WILL
BE WARMER AND WINDIER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EXITS THE AREA.
WITH THE LOW CLOUDS BURNING OFF QUICKLY...HIGHS IN THE 70S SEEM
REASONABLE. FOR TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOK TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NEW MEXICO AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PUSH EAST INTO THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. NOT EXPECTING HEAVY RAINFALL BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF DEAF SMITH COUNTY SEES A FEW RAIN DROPS
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER...IN THE LOW TO MID
50S...IN RESPONSE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS.

FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
HAVE VERY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...MAINLY AT NIGHT WHILE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS HIGH AND DRY. AS A RESULT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...WITH LOCATIONS
NEARING THE 80 DEGREE MARK...WHILE A FEW MORE CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS
IN THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE IN THE MID 70S BOTH DAYS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE TIME FRAME IN THE
FORECAST AS A COLD FRONT AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS DEFINITELY INCREASING THAT THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE ABOUT 6-12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE
GFS BUT BOTH SOLUTIONS NOW AGREE ALL PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH OUT OF
THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...HIGHS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S EXPECTED ON BOTH DAYS.

FRIDAY AND BEYOND LOOKS TO BE DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM OVER THE
PANHANDLES AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO ONCE AGAIN REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WITH SOME 80S EVEN EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE FOR THE END OF OCTOBER...AS MANY LOCATIONS ARE NEARING OR
EVEN SURPASSING THEIR AVERAGE FIRST FREEZE DATES...WITH NO FREEZING
TEMPERATURES OBSERVED YET THIS FALL AS WELL AS NO FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS. FOR
ONCE...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PANHANDLES WILL ACTUALLY GET TO HOLD ON TO
FALL ALL THE WAY THROUGH OCTOBER...WHILE KEEPING OLD MAN WINTER AT
BAY...FOR NOW.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/14






000
FXUS64 KAMA 191749 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1249 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...BEFORE DECREASING AGAIN BY MONDAY
MORNING. SOME SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS HAVE MADE THEIR WAY TO THE AMA
TAF SITE...BUT BELIEVE THAT THESE WILL NOT MAKE A CIG THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL THEN
VEER TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...S TO SW WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT BY LATE THIS
MORNING AND PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE
DIMINISHING BY 00Z MONDAY. PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS EXPECTED DURG THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A QUIET NIGHT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EARLY MORNING WITH
A FEW LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. TODAY WILL
BE WARMER AND WINDIER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EXITS THE AREA.
WITH THE LOW CLOUDS BURNING OFF QUICKLY...HIGHS IN THE 70S SEEM
REASONABLE. FOR TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOK TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NEW MEXICO AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PUSH EAST INTO THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. NOT EXPECTING HEAVY RAINFALL BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF DEAF SMITH COUNTY SEES A FEW RAIN DROPS
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER...IN THE LOW TO MID
50S...IN RESPONSE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS.

FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
HAVE VERY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...MAINLY AT NIGHT WHILE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS HIGH AND DRY. AS A RESULT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...WITH LOCATIONS
NEARING THE 80 DEGREE MARK...WHILE A FEW MORE CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS
IN THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE IN THE MID 70S BOTH DAYS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE TIME FRAME IN THE
FORECAST AS A COLD FRONT AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS DEFINITELY INCREASING THAT THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE ABOUT 6-12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE
GFS BUT BOTH SOLUTIONS NOW AGREE ALL PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH OUT OF
THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...HIGHS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S EXPECTED ON BOTH DAYS.

FRIDAY AND BEYOND LOOKS TO BE DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM OVER THE
PANHANDLES AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO ONCE AGAIN REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WITH SOME 80S EVEN EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE FOR THE END OF OCTOBER...AS MANY LOCATIONS ARE NEARING OR
EVEN SURPASSING THEIR AVERAGE FIRST FREEZE DATES...WITH NO FREEZING
TEMPERATURES OBSERVED YET THIS FALL AS WELL AS NO FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS. FOR
ONCE...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PANHANDLES WILL ACTUALLY GET TO HOLD ON TO
FALL ALL THE WAY THROUGH OCTOBER...WHILE KEEPING OLD MAN WINTER AT
BAY...FOR NOW.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/14







000
FXUS64 KAMA 191136 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
636 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...S TO SW WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT BY LATE THIS
MORNING AND PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE
DIMINISHING BY 00Z MONDAY. PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS EXPECTED DURG THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A QUIET NIGHT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EARLY MORNING WITH
A FEW LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. TODAY WILL
BE WARMER AND WINDIER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EXITS THE AREA.
WITH THE LOW CLOUDS BURNING OFF QUICKLY...HIGHS IN THE 70S SEEM
REASONABLE. FOR TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOK TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NEW MEXICO AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PUSH EAST INTO THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. NOT EXPECTING HEAVY RAINFALL BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF DEAF SMITH COUNTY SEES A FEW RAIN DROPS
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER...IN THE LOW TO MID
50S...IN RESPONSE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS.

FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
HAVE VERY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...MAINLY AT NIGHT WHILE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS HIGH AND DRY. AS A RESULT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...WITH LOCATIONS
NEARING THE 80 DEGREE MARK...WHILE A FEW MORE CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS
IN THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE IN THE MID 70S BOTH DAYS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE TIME FRAME IN THE
FORECAST AS A COLD FRONT AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS DEFINITELY INCREASING THAT THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE ABOUT 6-12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE
GFS BUT BOTH SOLUTIONS NOW AGREE ALL PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH OUT OF
THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...HIGHS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S EXPECTED ON BOTH DAYS.

FRIDAY AND BEYOND LOOKS TO BE DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM OVER THE
PANHANDLES AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO ONCE AGAIN REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WITH SOME 80S EVEN EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE FOR THE END OF OCTOBER...AS MANY LOCATIONS ARE NEARING OR
EVEN SURPASSING THEIR AVERAGE FIRST FREEZE DATES...WITH NO FREEZING
TEMPERATURES OBSERVED YET THIS FALL AS WELL AS NO FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS. FOR
ONCE...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PANHANDLES WILL ACTUALLY GET TO HOLD ON TO
FALL ALL THE WAY THROUGH OCTOBER...WHILE KEEPING OLD MAN WINTER AT
BAY...FOR NOW.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 191136 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
636 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...S TO SW WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT BY LATE THIS
MORNING AND PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE
DIMINISHING BY 00Z MONDAY. PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS EXPECTED DURG THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A QUIET NIGHT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EARLY MORNING WITH
A FEW LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. TODAY WILL
BE WARMER AND WINDIER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EXITS THE AREA.
WITH THE LOW CLOUDS BURNING OFF QUICKLY...HIGHS IN THE 70S SEEM
REASONABLE. FOR TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOK TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NEW MEXICO AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PUSH EAST INTO THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. NOT EXPECTING HEAVY RAINFALL BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF DEAF SMITH COUNTY SEES A FEW RAIN DROPS
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER...IN THE LOW TO MID
50S...IN RESPONSE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS.

FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
HAVE VERY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...MAINLY AT NIGHT WHILE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS HIGH AND DRY. AS A RESULT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...WITH LOCATIONS
NEARING THE 80 DEGREE MARK...WHILE A FEW MORE CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS
IN THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE IN THE MID 70S BOTH DAYS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE TIME FRAME IN THE
FORECAST AS A COLD FRONT AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS DEFINITELY INCREASING THAT THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE ABOUT 6-12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE
GFS BUT BOTH SOLUTIONS NOW AGREE ALL PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH OUT OF
THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...HIGHS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S EXPECTED ON BOTH DAYS.

FRIDAY AND BEYOND LOOKS TO BE DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM OVER THE
PANHANDLES AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO ONCE AGAIN REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WITH SOME 80S EVEN EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE FOR THE END OF OCTOBER...AS MANY LOCATIONS ARE NEARING OR
EVEN SURPASSING THEIR AVERAGE FIRST FREEZE DATES...WITH NO FREEZING
TEMPERATURES OBSERVED YET THIS FALL AS WELL AS NO FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS. FOR
ONCE...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PANHANDLES WILL ACTUALLY GET TO HOLD ON TO
FALL ALL THE WAY THROUGH OCTOBER...WHILE KEEPING OLD MAN WINTER AT
BAY...FOR NOW.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 190754
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
254 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A QUIET NIGHT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EARLY MORNING WITH
A FEW LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. TODAY WILL
BE WARMER AND WINDIER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EXITS THE AREA.
WITH THE LOW CLOUDS BURNING OFF QUICKLY...HIGHS IN THE 70S SEEM
REASONABLE. FOR TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOK TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NEW MEXICO AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PUSH EAST INTO THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. NOT EXPECTING HEAVY RAINFALL BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF DEAF SMITH COUNTY SEES A FEW RAIN DROPS
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER...IN THE LOW TO MID
50S...IN RESPONSE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS.

FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
HAVE VERY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...MAINLY AT NIGHT WHILE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS HIGH AND DRY. AS A RESULT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...WITH LOCATIONS
NEARING THE 80 DEGREE MARK...WHILE A FEW MORE CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS
IN THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE IN THE MID 70S BOTH DAYS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE TIME FRAME IN THE
FORECAST AS A COLD FRONT AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS DEFINITELY INCREASING THAT THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE ABOUT 6-12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE
GFS BUT BOTH SOLUTIONS NOW AGREE ALL PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH OUT OF
THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...HIGHS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S EXPECTED ON BOTH DAYS.

FRIDAY AND BEYOND LOOKS TO BE DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM OVER THE
PANHANDLES AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO ONCE AGAIN REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WITH SOME 80S EVEN EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE FOR THE END OF OCTOBER...AS MANY LOCATIONS ARE NEARING OR
EVEN SURPASSING THEIR AVERAGE FIRST FREEZE DATES...WITH NO FREEZING
TEMPERATURES OBSERVED YET THIS FALL AS WELL AS NO FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS. FOR
ONCE...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PANHANDLES WILL ACTUALLY GET TO HOLD ON TO
FALL ALL THE WAY THROUGH OCTOBER...WHILE KEEPING OLD MAN WINTER AT
BAY...FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                73  53  77  53  75 /   5  10  10  10   5
BEAVER OK                  79  52  80  51  81 /   0  10   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              75  50  74  49  75 /   5  10   5   5   5
BORGER TX                  77  56  80  55  79 /   5  10   5   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              75  51  78  51  76 /   5  10  10  10  10
CANYON TX                  73  53  77  51  75 /   5  10  20  10  10
CLARENDON TX               76  53  82  54  79 /   5  10  10  10   5
DALHART TX                 75  50  77  50  75 /   5  10  10  10   5
GUYMON OK                  78  52  79  51  79 /   0  10   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                73  51  77  50  74 /  10  10  20  20  10
LIPSCOMB TX                77  55  81  54  81 /   0  10   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   74  53  78  53  77 /   5  10  10  10   5
SHAMROCK TX                75  54  82  55  80 /   5  10  10  10   5
WELLINGTON TX              76  57  83  58  81 /   5  10  10  10   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

KNS






000
FXUS64 KAMA 190754
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
254 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A QUIET NIGHT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EARLY MORNING WITH
A FEW LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. TODAY WILL
BE WARMER AND WINDIER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EXITS THE AREA.
WITH THE LOW CLOUDS BURNING OFF QUICKLY...HIGHS IN THE 70S SEEM
REASONABLE. FOR TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOK TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NEW MEXICO AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PUSH EAST INTO THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. NOT EXPECTING HEAVY RAINFALL BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF DEAF SMITH COUNTY SEES A FEW RAIN DROPS
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER...IN THE LOW TO MID
50S...IN RESPONSE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS.

FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
HAVE VERY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...MAINLY AT NIGHT WHILE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS HIGH AND DRY. AS A RESULT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...WITH LOCATIONS
NEARING THE 80 DEGREE MARK...WHILE A FEW MORE CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS
IN THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE IN THE MID 70S BOTH DAYS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE TIME FRAME IN THE
FORECAST AS A COLD FRONT AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS DEFINITELY INCREASING THAT THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE ABOUT 6-12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE
GFS BUT BOTH SOLUTIONS NOW AGREE ALL PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH OUT OF
THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...HIGHS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S EXPECTED ON BOTH DAYS.

FRIDAY AND BEYOND LOOKS TO BE DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM OVER THE
PANHANDLES AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO ONCE AGAIN REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WITH SOME 80S EVEN EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE FOR THE END OF OCTOBER...AS MANY LOCATIONS ARE NEARING OR
EVEN SURPASSING THEIR AVERAGE FIRST FREEZE DATES...WITH NO FREEZING
TEMPERATURES OBSERVED YET THIS FALL AS WELL AS NO FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS. FOR
ONCE...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PANHANDLES WILL ACTUALLY GET TO HOLD ON TO
FALL ALL THE WAY THROUGH OCTOBER...WHILE KEEPING OLD MAN WINTER AT
BAY...FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                73  53  77  53  75 /   5  10  10  10   5
BEAVER OK                  79  52  80  51  81 /   0  10   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              75  50  74  49  75 /   5  10   5   5   5
BORGER TX                  77  56  80  55  79 /   5  10   5   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              75  51  78  51  76 /   5  10  10  10  10
CANYON TX                  73  53  77  51  75 /   5  10  20  10  10
CLARENDON TX               76  53  82  54  79 /   5  10  10  10   5
DALHART TX                 75  50  77  50  75 /   5  10  10  10   5
GUYMON OK                  78  52  79  51  79 /   0  10   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                73  51  77  50  74 /  10  10  20  20  10
LIPSCOMB TX                77  55  81  54  81 /   0  10   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   74  53  78  53  77 /   5  10  10  10   5
SHAMROCK TX                75  54  82  55  80 /   5  10  10  10   5
WELLINGTON TX              76  57  83  58  81 /   5  10  10  10   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

KNS





000
FXUS64 KAMA 190438 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1138 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
NO CHANGES OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE TO FORECAST MADE SIX HOURS AGO.  LIGHT
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL TREND TO SOUTHWEST BY DAYBREAK UNDER A
GENERALLY CLEAR SKY.  NO EARLY MORNING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED.  SOUTH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST INTO THE 25
TO 30 KT RANGE FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY.  BASES OF SCATTERED
CUMULUS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL.  SURFACE
WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 00Z MONDAY.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES
NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 812 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRAPHICAL FORECASTS...ELIMINATING LOW POPS FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED SPRINKLES IN
EASTERN SECTIONS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING...BASED ON WEAK ECHOES
INDICATED BY RECENT RADAR TRENDS.  NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AVIATION...
VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN PART OF FORECAST AREA EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE VERY SOON...NOT HAVING ANY AVIATION IMPACT TO ANY OF THE
TERMINALS.  ONLY MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT.  NO EARLY MORNING BR OR
FOG IS EXPECTED.  SOME BRIEF EARLY MORNING STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED
AROUND KAMA.  OTHERWISE ONLY CLOUDS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WILL BE
CUMULUS.  SOUTH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS BEGIN TO GUST INTO THE 25 TO
30 KT RANGE AROUND 15Z SUNDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WHICH HAS PROVIDED THE WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL CONTINUE TO
TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE SHORTWAVE HAS
ALREADY TRAVELED FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THIS WILL
ALLOW THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TO SEE SOME PRECIP THIS
EVENING. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

SUNDAY DAYTIME SHOULD REMAIN DRY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE BRINGS
PRECIP CHANCES TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. INSTABILITY
REMAIN LIMITED AND SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
LOW END PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BEFORE A STRONGER TROUGH IMPACTS THE PANHANDLES AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. INSTABILITY REMAINS ON THE LOW END SO SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO MAKE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH WITH THE GFS COMING CLOSER
TO THE ECMWF ON THE CUT OFF OF PRECIP CHANCES THURSDAY AFTERNOON DUE
TO A FURTHER EAST POSITIONING OF THE CLOSED LOW. EXPECT TO SEE
ADJUSTMENTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS WE GO FORWARD IN
TIME. BY FRIDAY NEXT WEEK WE WILL BE LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/19






000
FXUS64 KAMA 190438 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1138 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
NO CHANGES OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE TO FORECAST MADE SIX HOURS AGO.  LIGHT
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL TREND TO SOUTHWEST BY DAYBREAK UNDER A
GENERALLY CLEAR SKY.  NO EARLY MORNING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED.  SOUTH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST INTO THE 25
TO 30 KT RANGE FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY.  BASES OF SCATTERED
CUMULUS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL.  SURFACE
WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 00Z MONDAY.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES
NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 812 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRAPHICAL FORECASTS...ELIMINATING LOW POPS FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED SPRINKLES IN
EASTERN SECTIONS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING...BASED ON WEAK ECHOES
INDICATED BY RECENT RADAR TRENDS.  NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AVIATION...
VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN PART OF FORECAST AREA EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE VERY SOON...NOT HAVING ANY AVIATION IMPACT TO ANY OF THE
TERMINALS.  ONLY MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT.  NO EARLY MORNING BR OR
FOG IS EXPECTED.  SOME BRIEF EARLY MORNING STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED
AROUND KAMA.  OTHERWISE ONLY CLOUDS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WILL BE
CUMULUS.  SOUTH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS BEGIN TO GUST INTO THE 25 TO
30 KT RANGE AROUND 15Z SUNDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WHICH HAS PROVIDED THE WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL CONTINUE TO
TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE SHORTWAVE HAS
ALREADY TRAVELED FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THIS WILL
ALLOW THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TO SEE SOME PRECIP THIS
EVENING. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

SUNDAY DAYTIME SHOULD REMAIN DRY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE BRINGS
PRECIP CHANCES TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. INSTABILITY
REMAIN LIMITED AND SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
LOW END PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BEFORE A STRONGER TROUGH IMPACTS THE PANHANDLES AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. INSTABILITY REMAINS ON THE LOW END SO SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO MAKE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH WITH THE GFS COMING CLOSER
TO THE ECMWF ON THE CUT OFF OF PRECIP CHANCES THURSDAY AFTERNOON DUE
TO A FURTHER EAST POSITIONING OF THE CLOSED LOW. EXPECT TO SEE
ADJUSTMENTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS WE GO FORWARD IN
TIME. BY FRIDAY NEXT WEEK WE WILL BE LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/19







000
FXUS64 KAMA 190112 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
812 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRAPHICAL FORECASTS...ELIMINATING LOW POPS FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED SPRINKLES IN
EASTERN SECTIONS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING...BASED ON WEAK ECHOES
INDICATED BY RECENT RADAR TRENDS.  NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AVIATION...
VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN PART OF FORECAST AREA EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE VERY SOON...NOT HAVING ANY AVIATION IMPACT TO ANY OF THE
TERMINALS.  ONLY MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT.  NO EARLY MORNING BR OR
FOG IS EXPECTED.  SOME BRIEF EARLY MORNING STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED
AROUND KAMA.  OTHERWISE ONLY CLOUDS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WILL BE
CUMULUS.  SOUTH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS BEGIN TO GUST INTO THE 25 TO
30 KT RANGE AROUND 15Z SUNDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WHICH HAS PROVIDED THE WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL CONTINUE TO
TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE SHORTWAVE HAS
ALREADY TRAVELED FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THIS WILL
ALLOW THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TO SEE SOME PRECIP THIS
EVENING. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

SUNDAY DAYTIME SHOULD REMAIN DRY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE BRINGS
PRECIP CHANCES TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. INSTABILITY
REMAIN LIMITED AND SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
LOW END PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BEFORE A STRONGER TROUGH IMPACTS THE PANHANDLES AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. INSTABILITY REMAINS ON THE LOW END SO SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO MAKE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH WITH THE GFS COMING CLOSER
TO THE ECMWF ON THE CUT OFF OF PRECIP CHANCES THURSDAY AFTERNOON DUE
TO A FURTHER EAST POSITIONING OF THE CLOSED LOW. EXPECT TO SEE
ADJUSTMENTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS WE GO FORWARD IN
TIME. BY FRIDAY NEXT WEEK WE WILL BE LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/19






000
FXUS64 KAMA 190112 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
812 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRAPHICAL FORECASTS...ELIMINATING LOW POPS FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED SPRINKLES IN
EASTERN SECTIONS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING...BASED ON WEAK ECHOES
INDICATED BY RECENT RADAR TRENDS.  NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AVIATION...
VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN PART OF FORECAST AREA EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE VERY SOON...NOT HAVING ANY AVIATION IMPACT TO ANY OF THE
TERMINALS.  ONLY MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT.  NO EARLY MORNING BR OR
FOG IS EXPECTED.  SOME BRIEF EARLY MORNING STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED
AROUND KAMA.  OTHERWISE ONLY CLOUDS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WILL BE
CUMULUS.  SOUTH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS BEGIN TO GUST INTO THE 25 TO
30 KT RANGE AROUND 15Z SUNDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WHICH HAS PROVIDED THE WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL CONTINUE TO
TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE SHORTWAVE HAS
ALREADY TRAVELED FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THIS WILL
ALLOW THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TO SEE SOME PRECIP THIS
EVENING. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

SUNDAY DAYTIME SHOULD REMAIN DRY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE BRINGS
PRECIP CHANCES TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. INSTABILITY
REMAIN LIMITED AND SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
LOW END PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BEFORE A STRONGER TROUGH IMPACTS THE PANHANDLES AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. INSTABILITY REMAINS ON THE LOW END SO SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO MAKE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH WITH THE GFS COMING CLOSER
TO THE ECMWF ON THE CUT OFF OF PRECIP CHANCES THURSDAY AFTERNOON DUE
TO A FURTHER EAST POSITIONING OF THE CLOSED LOW. EXPECT TO SEE
ADJUSTMENTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS WE GO FORWARD IN
TIME. BY FRIDAY NEXT WEEK WE WILL BE LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/19







000
FXUS64 KAMA 182349 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
649 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN PART OF FORECAST AREA EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE VERY SOON...NOT HAVING ANY AVIATION IMPACT TO ANY OF THE
TERMINALS.  ONLY MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT.  NO EARLY MORNING BR OR
FOG IS EXPECTED.  SOME BRIEF EARLY MORNING STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED
AROUND KAMA.  OTHERWISE ONLY CLOUDS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WILL BE
CUMULUS.  SOUTH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS BEGIN TO GUST INTO THE 25 TO
30 KT RANGE AROUND 15Z SUNDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WHICH HAS PROVIDED THE WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL CONTINUE TO
TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE SHORTWAVE HAS
ALREADY TRAVELED FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THIS WILL
ALLOW THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TO SEE SOME PRECIP THIS
EVENING. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

SUNDAY DAYTIME SHOULD REMAIN DRY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE BRINGS
PRECIP CHANCES TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. INSTABILITY
REMAIN LIMITED AND SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
LOW END PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BEFORE A STRONGER TROUGH IMPACTS THE PANHANDLES AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. INSTABILITY REMAINS ON THE LOW END SO SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO MAKE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH WITH THE GFS COMING CLOSER
TO THE ECMWF ON THE CUT OFF OF PRECIP CHANCES THURSDAY AFTERNOON DUE
TO A FURTHER EAST POSITIONING OF THE CLOSED LOW. EXPECT TO SEE
ADJUSTMENTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS WE GO FORWARD IN
TIME. BY FRIDAY NEXT WEEK WE WILL BE LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                47  72  52  76  51 /  30   5  10  10  10
BEAVER OK                  47  79  52  80  49 /  10   0  10   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              47  75  49  74  47 /  30   5  10   5   5
BORGER TX                  50  76  55  79  53 /  20   5  10   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              46  74  51  77  50 /  20   5  10  10  10
CANYON TX                  46  72  52  76  50 /  30  10  20  20  10
CLARENDON TX               47  75  53  80  53 /  20   5  10  20  10
DALHART TX                 47  74  50  76  49 /  20   5  10  10  10
GUYMON OK                  48  77  51  78  49 /  20   0  10   0   0
HEREFORD TX                45  71  51  75  49 /  30  10  20  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                50  76  54  80  53 /  10   0  10   0   0
PAMPA TX                   47  74  53  77  52 /  20   5  10  10  10
SHAMROCK TX                48  74  53  81  54 /  20   5  10  10  10
WELLINGTON TX              51  76  56  82  57 /  20   5  10  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/19







000
FXUS64 KAMA 182017
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
317 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WHICH HAS PROVIDED THE WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL CONTINUE TO
TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE SHORTWAVE HAS
ALREADY TRAVELED FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THIS WILL
ALLOW THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TO SEE SOME PRECIP THIS
EVENING. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

SUNDAY DAYTIME SHOULD REMAIN DRY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE BRINGS
PRECIP CHANCES TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. INSTABILITY
REMAIN LIMITED AND SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
LOW END PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BEFORE A STRONGER TROUGH IMPACTS THE PANHANDLES AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. INSTABILITY REMAINS ON THE LOW END SO SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO MAKE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH WITH THE GFS COMING CLOSER
TO THE ECMWF ON THE CUT OFF OF PRECIP CHANCES THURSDAY AFTERNOON DUE
TO A FURTHER EAST POSITIONING OF THE CLOSED LOW. EXPECT TO SEE
ADJUSTMENTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS WE GO FORWARD IN
TIME. BY FRIDAY NEXT WEEK WE WILL BE LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                47  72  52  76  51 /  30   5  10  10  10
BEAVER OK                  47  79  52  80  49 /  10   0  10   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              47  75  49  74  47 /  30   5  10   5   5
BORGER TX                  50  76  55  79  53 /  20   5  10   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              46  74  51  77  50 /  20   5  10  10  10
CANYON TX                  46  72  52  76  50 /  30  10  20  20  10
CLARENDON TX               47  75  53  80  53 /  20   5  10  20  10
DALHART TX                 47  74  50  76  49 /  20   5  10  10  10
GUYMON OK                  48  77  51  78  49 /  20   0  10   0   0
HEREFORD TX                45  71  51  75  49 /  30  10  20  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                50  76  54  80  53 /  10   0  10   0   0
PAMPA TX                   47  74  53  77  52 /  20   5  10  10  10
SHAMROCK TX                48  74  53  81  54 /  20   5  10  10  10
WELLINGTON TX              51  76  56  82  57 /  20   5  10  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/14






000
FXUS64 KAMA 182017
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
317 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WHICH HAS PROVIDED THE WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL CONTINUE TO
TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE SHORTWAVE HAS
ALREADY TRAVELED FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THIS WILL
ALLOW THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TO SEE SOME PRECIP THIS
EVENING. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

SUNDAY DAYTIME SHOULD REMAIN DRY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE BRINGS
PRECIP CHANCES TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. INSTABILITY
REMAIN LIMITED AND SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
LOW END PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BEFORE A STRONGER TROUGH IMPACTS THE PANHANDLES AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. INSTABILITY REMAINS ON THE LOW END SO SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO MAKE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH WITH THE GFS COMING CLOSER
TO THE ECMWF ON THE CUT OFF OF PRECIP CHANCES THURSDAY AFTERNOON DUE
TO A FURTHER EAST POSITIONING OF THE CLOSED LOW. EXPECT TO SEE
ADJUSTMENTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS WE GO FORWARD IN
TIME. BY FRIDAY NEXT WEEK WE WILL BE LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                47  72  52  76  51 /  30   5  10  10  10
BEAVER OK                  47  79  52  80  49 /  10   0  10   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              47  75  49  74  47 /  30   5  10   5   5
BORGER TX                  50  76  55  79  53 /  20   5  10   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              46  74  51  77  50 /  20   5  10  10  10
CANYON TX                  46  72  52  76  50 /  30  10  20  20  10
CLARENDON TX               47  75  53  80  53 /  20   5  10  20  10
DALHART TX                 47  74  50  76  49 /  20   5  10  10  10
GUYMON OK                  48  77  51  78  49 /  20   0  10   0   0
HEREFORD TX                45  71  51  75  49 /  30  10  20  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                50  76  54  80  53 /  10   0  10   0   0
PAMPA TX                   47  74  53  77  52 /  20   5  10  10  10
SHAMROCK TX                48  74  53  81  54 /  20   5  10  10  10
WELLINGTON TX              51  76  56  82  57 /  20   5  10  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/14







000
FXUS64 KAMA 181739 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1239 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS WERE APPROACHING THE DHT TAF SITE AT THIS WRITING AND SHOWERS
MAY MOVE INTO THE AMA AND GUY TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
ADDED A TEMPO MVFR GROUP TO ALL TAF SITES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
VISIBILITY MAY DROP BELOW 6 MILES UNDER A HEAVIER SHOWER. BELIEVE
THAT THE CIGS SHOULD STAY ABOVE 4000 FEET. THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT ALL SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...A FAST MOVING AND RATHER COMPACT UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ITS NEWD JOURNEY OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS
THE TX AND OK PNHDLS TODAY. SOME THREAT OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLD TSTM EXISTS...ESPECIALLY AT KDHT AND KAMA LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DID NOT INCLUDE THIS WEATHER ELEMENT FOR
THIS FCST CYCLE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN PINNING DOWN THE TIMING AND
LOCATION. PRECIP THREAT DIMINISHES BY SUNSET THIS EVENING.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS CLOUD COVER
IS SLOWLY BUT SURELY INCREASING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THIS IS ALL
IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL IMPACT
THE AREA TODAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH IT. THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITHOUT MUCH INSTABILITY AVAILABLE AND A
HEALTHY CAP PRESENT...THINK THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE HARD TO COME BY SO
KEPT ONLY SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE
RAINFALL TODAY...IN FACT...EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE RATHER
LIGHT. WITH THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AROUND...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE 60S AREA WIDE TODAY. FOR
TONIGHT...ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET
LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LOWS IN THE 40S EXPECTED. FOR
SUNDAY...THE SUN WILL RETURN IN FULL FORCE AS DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S CAN BE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME IS DEFINITELY NOT CLEAR
CUT AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN SOMEWHAT DISAGREEMENT. PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS HAVE KEPT ALL CONVECTION WEST OF THE PANHANDLES IN NEW MEXICO.
HOWEVER THE 00Z MODELS ESPECIALLY THE GFS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AS A FEW UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT...INCLUDED CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON
JUST HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE AROUND...SO HIGHS
IN THE 70S SEEM REASONABLE.

BY WEDNESDAY...A MUCH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SPARKING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS 7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT
6-12 HOURS EARLIER WITH PRECIPITATION TIMING...WHILE THE GFS REALLY
FOCUSES THE BULK OF THE RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
REGARDLESS...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING AS FAR AS RAIN CHANCES...BUT
THERE STILL IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW LONG THE MOISTURE WILL HANG
AROUND LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...LEFT FRIDAY DRY FOR
NOW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

KNS

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/14






000
FXUS64 KAMA 181739 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1239 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS WERE APPROACHING THE DHT TAF SITE AT THIS WRITING AND SHOWERS
MAY MOVE INTO THE AMA AND GUY TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
ADDED A TEMPO MVFR GROUP TO ALL TAF SITES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
VISIBILITY MAY DROP BELOW 6 MILES UNDER A HEAVIER SHOWER. BELIEVE
THAT THE CIGS SHOULD STAY ABOVE 4000 FEET. THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT ALL SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...A FAST MOVING AND RATHER COMPACT UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ITS NEWD JOURNEY OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS
THE TX AND OK PNHDLS TODAY. SOME THREAT OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLD TSTM EXISTS...ESPECIALLY AT KDHT AND KAMA LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DID NOT INCLUDE THIS WEATHER ELEMENT FOR
THIS FCST CYCLE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN PINNING DOWN THE TIMING AND
LOCATION. PRECIP THREAT DIMINISHES BY SUNSET THIS EVENING.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS CLOUD COVER
IS SLOWLY BUT SURELY INCREASING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THIS IS ALL
IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL IMPACT
THE AREA TODAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH IT. THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITHOUT MUCH INSTABILITY AVAILABLE AND A
HEALTHY CAP PRESENT...THINK THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE HARD TO COME BY SO
KEPT ONLY SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE
RAINFALL TODAY...IN FACT...EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE RATHER
LIGHT. WITH THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AROUND...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE 60S AREA WIDE TODAY. FOR
TONIGHT...ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET
LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LOWS IN THE 40S EXPECTED. FOR
SUNDAY...THE SUN WILL RETURN IN FULL FORCE AS DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S CAN BE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME IS DEFINITELY NOT CLEAR
CUT AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN SOMEWHAT DISAGREEMENT. PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS HAVE KEPT ALL CONVECTION WEST OF THE PANHANDLES IN NEW MEXICO.
HOWEVER THE 00Z MODELS ESPECIALLY THE GFS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AS A FEW UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT...INCLUDED CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON
JUST HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE AROUND...SO HIGHS
IN THE 70S SEEM REASONABLE.

BY WEDNESDAY...A MUCH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SPARKING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS 7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT
6-12 HOURS EARLIER WITH PRECIPITATION TIMING...WHILE THE GFS REALLY
FOCUSES THE BULK OF THE RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
REGARDLESS...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING AS FAR AS RAIN CHANCES...BUT
THERE STILL IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW LONG THE MOISTURE WILL HANG
AROUND LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...LEFT FRIDAY DRY FOR
NOW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

KNS

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/14







000
FXUS64 KAMA 181142 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
642 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...A FAST MOVING AND RATHER COMPACT UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ITS NEWD JOURNEY OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS
THE TX AND OK PNHDLS TODAY. SOME THREAT OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLD TSTM EXISTS...ESPECIALLY AT KDHT AND KAMA LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DID NOT INCLUDE THIS WEATHER ELEMENT FOR
THIS FCST CYCLE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN PINNING DOWN THE TIMING AND
LOCATION. PRECIP THREAT DIMINISHES BY SUNSET THIS EVENING.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS CLOUD COVER
IS SLOWLY BUT SURELY INCREASING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THIS IS ALL
IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL IMPACT
THE AREA TODAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH IT. THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITHOUT MUCH INSTABILITY AVAILABLE AND A
HEALTHY CAP PRESENT...THINK THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE HARD TO COME BY SO
KEPT ONLY SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE
RAINFALL TODAY...IN FACT...EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE RATHER
LIGHT. WITH THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AROUND...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE 60S AREA WIDE TODAY. FOR
TONIGHT...ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET
LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LOWS IN THE 40S EXPECTED. FOR
SUNDAY...THE SUN WILL RETURN IN FULL FORCE AS DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S CAN BE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME IS DEFINITELY NOT CLEAR
CUT AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN SOMEWHAT DISAGREEMENT. PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS HAVE KEPT ALL CONVECTION WEST OF THE PANHANDLES IN NEW MEXICO.
HOWEVER THE 00Z MODELS ESPECIALLY THE GFS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AS A FEW UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT...INCLUDED CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON
JUST HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE AROUND...SO HIGHS
IN THE 70S SEEM REASONABLE.

BY WEDNESDAY...A MUCH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SPARKING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS 7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT
6-12 HOURS EARLIER WITH PRECIPITATION TIMING...WHILE THE GFS REALLY
FOCUSES THE BULK OF THE RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
REGARDLESS...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING AS FAR AS RAIN CHANCES...BUT
THERE STILL IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW LONG THE MOISTURE WILL HANG
AROUND LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...LEFT FRIDAY DRY FOR
NOW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

KNS

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 181142 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
642 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...A FAST MOVING AND RATHER COMPACT UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ITS NEWD JOURNEY OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS
THE TX AND OK PNHDLS TODAY. SOME THREAT OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLD TSTM EXISTS...ESPECIALLY AT KDHT AND KAMA LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DID NOT INCLUDE THIS WEATHER ELEMENT FOR
THIS FCST CYCLE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN PINNING DOWN THE TIMING AND
LOCATION. PRECIP THREAT DIMINISHES BY SUNSET THIS EVENING.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS CLOUD COVER
IS SLOWLY BUT SURELY INCREASING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THIS IS ALL
IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL IMPACT
THE AREA TODAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH IT. THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITHOUT MUCH INSTABILITY AVAILABLE AND A
HEALTHY CAP PRESENT...THINK THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE HARD TO COME BY SO
KEPT ONLY SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE
RAINFALL TODAY...IN FACT...EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE RATHER
LIGHT. WITH THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AROUND...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE 60S AREA WIDE TODAY. FOR
TONIGHT...ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET
LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LOWS IN THE 40S EXPECTED. FOR
SUNDAY...THE SUN WILL RETURN IN FULL FORCE AS DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S CAN BE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME IS DEFINITELY NOT CLEAR
CUT AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN SOMEWHAT DISAGREEMENT. PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS HAVE KEPT ALL CONVECTION WEST OF THE PANHANDLES IN NEW MEXICO.
HOWEVER THE 00Z MODELS ESPECIALLY THE GFS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AS A FEW UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT...INCLUDED CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON
JUST HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE AROUND...SO HIGHS
IN THE 70S SEEM REASONABLE.

BY WEDNESDAY...A MUCH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SPARKING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS 7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT
6-12 HOURS EARLIER WITH PRECIPITATION TIMING...WHILE THE GFS REALLY
FOCUSES THE BULK OF THE RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
REGARDLESS...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING AS FAR AS RAIN CHANCES...BUT
THERE STILL IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW LONG THE MOISTURE WILL HANG
AROUND LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...LEFT FRIDAY DRY FOR
NOW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

KNS

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 181142 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
642 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...A FAST MOVING AND RATHER COMPACT UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ITS NEWD JOURNEY OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS
THE TX AND OK PNHDLS TODAY. SOME THREAT OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLD TSTM EXISTS...ESPECIALLY AT KDHT AND KAMA LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DID NOT INCLUDE THIS WEATHER ELEMENT FOR
THIS FCST CYCLE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN PINNING DOWN THE TIMING AND
LOCATION. PRECIP THREAT DIMINISHES BY SUNSET THIS EVENING.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS CLOUD COVER
IS SLOWLY BUT SURELY INCREASING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THIS IS ALL
IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL IMPACT
THE AREA TODAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH IT. THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITHOUT MUCH INSTABILITY AVAILABLE AND A
HEALTHY CAP PRESENT...THINK THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE HARD TO COME BY SO
KEPT ONLY SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE
RAINFALL TODAY...IN FACT...EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE RATHER
LIGHT. WITH THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AROUND...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE 60S AREA WIDE TODAY. FOR
TONIGHT...ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET
LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LOWS IN THE 40S EXPECTED. FOR
SUNDAY...THE SUN WILL RETURN IN FULL FORCE AS DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S CAN BE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME IS DEFINITELY NOT CLEAR
CUT AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN SOMEWHAT DISAGREEMENT. PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS HAVE KEPT ALL CONVECTION WEST OF THE PANHANDLES IN NEW MEXICO.
HOWEVER THE 00Z MODELS ESPECIALLY THE GFS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AS A FEW UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT...INCLUDED CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON
JUST HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE AROUND...SO HIGHS
IN THE 70S SEEM REASONABLE.

BY WEDNESDAY...A MUCH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SPARKING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS 7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT
6-12 HOURS EARLIER WITH PRECIPITATION TIMING...WHILE THE GFS REALLY
FOCUSES THE BULK OF THE RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
REGARDLESS...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING AS FAR AS RAIN CHANCES...BUT
THERE STILL IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW LONG THE MOISTURE WILL HANG
AROUND LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...LEFT FRIDAY DRY FOR
NOW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

KNS

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 181142 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
642 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...A FAST MOVING AND RATHER COMPACT UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ITS NEWD JOURNEY OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS
THE TX AND OK PNHDLS TODAY. SOME THREAT OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLD TSTM EXISTS...ESPECIALLY AT KDHT AND KAMA LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DID NOT INCLUDE THIS WEATHER ELEMENT FOR
THIS FCST CYCLE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN PINNING DOWN THE TIMING AND
LOCATION. PRECIP THREAT DIMINISHES BY SUNSET THIS EVENING.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS CLOUD COVER
IS SLOWLY BUT SURELY INCREASING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THIS IS ALL
IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL IMPACT
THE AREA TODAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH IT. THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITHOUT MUCH INSTABILITY AVAILABLE AND A
HEALTHY CAP PRESENT...THINK THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE HARD TO COME BY SO
KEPT ONLY SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE
RAINFALL TODAY...IN FACT...EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE RATHER
LIGHT. WITH THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AROUND...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE 60S AREA WIDE TODAY. FOR
TONIGHT...ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET
LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LOWS IN THE 40S EXPECTED. FOR
SUNDAY...THE SUN WILL RETURN IN FULL FORCE AS DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S CAN BE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME IS DEFINITELY NOT CLEAR
CUT AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN SOMEWHAT DISAGREEMENT. PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS HAVE KEPT ALL CONVECTION WEST OF THE PANHANDLES IN NEW MEXICO.
HOWEVER THE 00Z MODELS ESPECIALLY THE GFS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AS A FEW UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT...INCLUDED CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON
JUST HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE AROUND...SO HIGHS
IN THE 70S SEEM REASONABLE.

BY WEDNESDAY...A MUCH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SPARKING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS 7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT
6-12 HOURS EARLIER WITH PRECIPITATION TIMING...WHILE THE GFS REALLY
FOCUSES THE BULK OF THE RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
REGARDLESS...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING AS FAR AS RAIN CHANCES...BUT
THERE STILL IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW LONG THE MOISTURE WILL HANG
AROUND LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...LEFT FRIDAY DRY FOR
NOW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

KNS

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 180817
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
317 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS CLOUD COVER
IS SLOWLY BUT SURELY INCREASING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THIS IS ALL
IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL IMPACT
THE AREA TODAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH IT. THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITHOUT MUCH INSTABILITY AVAILABLE AND A
HEALTHY CAP PRESENT...THINK THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE HARD TO COME BY SO
KEPT ONLY SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE
RAINFALL TODAY...IN FACT...EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE RATHER
LIGHT. WITH THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AROUND...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE 60S AREA WIDE TODAY. FOR
TONIGHT...ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET
LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LOWS IN THE 40S EXPECTED. FOR
SUNDAY...THE SUN WILL RETURN IN FULL FORCE AS DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S CAN BE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME IS DEFINITELY NOT CLEAR
CUT AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN SOMEWHAT DISAGREEMENT. PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS HAVE KEPT ALL CONVECTION WEST OF THE PANHANDLES IN NEW MEXICO.
HOWEVER THE 00Z MODELS ESPECIALLY THE GFS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AS A FEW UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT...INCLUDED CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON
JUST HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE AROUND...SO HIGHS
IN THE 70S SEEM REASONABLE.

BY WEDNESDAY...A MUCH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SPARKING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS 7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT
6-12 HOURS EARLIER WITH PRECIPITATION TIMING...WHILE THE GFS REALLY
FOCUSES THE BULK OF THE RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
REGARDLESS...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING AS FAR AS RAIN CHANCES...BUT
THERE STILL IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW LONG THE MOISTURE WILL HANG
AROUND LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...LEFT FRIDAY DRY FOR
NOW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

KNS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                65  47  73  52  76 /  20  10   5  10  10
BEAVER OK                  68  47  80  51  81 /   0   0   0  10   0
BOISE CITY OK              64  47  75  49  73 /   5   5   5  10   5
BORGER TX                  68  50  77  55  79 /  10   5   5  10   5
BOYS RANCH TX              65  46  74  51  77 /  20  10   5  10  10
CANYON TX                  66  46  73  51  76 /  20  10  10  20  10
CLARENDON TX               68  47  76  53  81 /  20  10   5  10  10
DALHART TX                 65  47  75  50  76 /  20   5   5  10  10
GUYMON OK                  67  48  78  51  79 /   5   5   0  10   0
HEREFORD TX                66  45  71  50  76 /  20  10  10  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                68  50  77  54  80 /   0   0   0  10   0
PAMPA TX                   65  47  75  52  77 /  10   5   5  10  10
SHAMROCK TX                69  48  75  53  82 /  10   5   5  10  10
WELLINGTON TX              71  51  76  56  82 /  10  10   5  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KAMA 180434 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1134 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.AVIATION...
FORECAST FROM SIX HOURS AGO REMAINS VALID.  HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT SHOULD INHIBIT BR OR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN SPITE OF LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS.  INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS DURING LATE MORNING ON
SATURDAY EXPECTED TO RESULT IN OVERCAST LAYER AROUND 8000 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.  SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT EXPECTED DURING MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS.  LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY SHORTWAVE TROF AS IT
TRAVERSES FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES
NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

AVIATION...
LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
ONLY HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.  NO OVERNIGHT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS FORESEEN.  INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SATURDAY WITH
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 KT.  SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST COULD CAUSE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...BUT AIRMASS WILL
LIKELY BE TOO CAPPED FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  VFR
FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSHOWERS TO AT LEAST THE SOUTHWEST
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS IS A TRICKY FORECAST TIME FRAME...AS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD SPREAD A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST ON SATURDAY EVENING. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN REBUILD ACROSS THE
REGION AS AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA STAYS WELL
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PANHANDLES. THEREFORE...EXPECT DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND
MODELS ARE IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR MUCH OF
THE PANHANDLES TO SEE SOME RAINFALL. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE DRY AS ZONAL UPPER FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/19







000
FXUS64 KAMA 180434 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1134 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.AVIATION...
FORECAST FROM SIX HOURS AGO REMAINS VALID.  HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT SHOULD INHIBIT BR OR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN SPITE OF LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS.  INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS DURING LATE MORNING ON
SATURDAY EXPECTED TO RESULT IN OVERCAST LAYER AROUND 8000 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.  SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT EXPECTED DURING MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS.  LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY SHORTWAVE TROF AS IT
TRAVERSES FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES
NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

AVIATION...
LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
ONLY HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.  NO OVERNIGHT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS FORESEEN.  INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SATURDAY WITH
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 KT.  SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST COULD CAUSE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...BUT AIRMASS WILL
LIKELY BE TOO CAPPED FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  VFR
FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSHOWERS TO AT LEAST THE SOUTHWEST
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS IS A TRICKY FORECAST TIME FRAME...AS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD SPREAD A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST ON SATURDAY EVENING. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN REBUILD ACROSS THE
REGION AS AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA STAYS WELL
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PANHANDLES. THEREFORE...EXPECT DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND
MODELS ARE IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR MUCH OF
THE PANHANDLES TO SEE SOME RAINFALL. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE DRY AS ZONAL UPPER FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/19






000
FXUS64 KAMA 180434 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1134 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.AVIATION...
FORECAST FROM SIX HOURS AGO REMAINS VALID.  HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT SHOULD INHIBIT BR OR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN SPITE OF LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS.  INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS DURING LATE MORNING ON
SATURDAY EXPECTED TO RESULT IN OVERCAST LAYER AROUND 8000 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.  SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT EXPECTED DURING MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS.  LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY SHORTWAVE TROF AS IT
TRAVERSES FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES
NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

AVIATION...
LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
ONLY HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.  NO OVERNIGHT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS FORESEEN.  INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SATURDAY WITH
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 KT.  SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST COULD CAUSE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...BUT AIRMASS WILL
LIKELY BE TOO CAPPED FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  VFR
FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSHOWERS TO AT LEAST THE SOUTHWEST
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS IS A TRICKY FORECAST TIME FRAME...AS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD SPREAD A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST ON SATURDAY EVENING. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN REBUILD ACROSS THE
REGION AS AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA STAYS WELL
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PANHANDLES. THEREFORE...EXPECT DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND
MODELS ARE IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR MUCH OF
THE PANHANDLES TO SEE SOME RAINFALL. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE DRY AS ZONAL UPPER FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/19







000
FXUS64 KAMA 172333 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
633 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.AVIATION...
LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
ONLY HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.  NO OVERNIGHT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS FORESEEN.  INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SATURDAY WITH
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 KT.  SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST COULD CAUSE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...BUT AIRMASS WILL
LIKELY BE TOO CAPPED FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  VFR
FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSHOWERS TO AT LEAST THE SOUTHWEST
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS IS A TRICKY FORECAST TIME FRAME...AS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD SPREAD A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST ON SATURDAY EVENING. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN REBUILD ACROSS THE
REGION AS AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA STAYS WELL
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PANHANDLES. THEREFORE...EXPECT DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND
MODELS ARE IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR MUCH OF
THE PANHANDLES TO SEE SOME RAINFALL. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE DRY AS ZONAL UPPER FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                44  66  47  73  51 /   0  10   5   5  10
BEAVER OK                  45  69  47  82  52 /   0   5   5   5  10
BOISE CITY OK              42  67  45  77  48 /   0   5   5   5  10
BORGER TX                  48  68  51  80  55 /   0  10   5   5  10
BOYS RANCH TX              45  68  48  76  50 /   0  10   5  10  10
CANYON TX                  43  69  47  74  50 /   0  20   5  10  10
CLARENDON TX               47  67  49  73  53 /   0  10   5   5  10
DALHART TX                 42  68  43  74  46 /   0  10   5  10  10
GUYMON OK                  43  67  45  80  49 /   0   5   5   5  10
HEREFORD TX                43  68  45  73  50 /   0  20  10  10  10
LIPSCOMB TX                44  68  46  78  53 /   0   0   5   5  10
PAMPA TX                   44  64  48  74  52 /   0   5   5   5  10
SHAMROCK TX                45  69  46  74  53 /   0   0   5   5  10
WELLINGTON TX              47  71  48  76  54 /   0   5   5   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/19







000
FXUS64 KAMA 172333 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
633 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.AVIATION...
LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
ONLY HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.  NO OVERNIGHT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS FORESEEN.  INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SATURDAY WITH
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 KT.  SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST COULD CAUSE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...BUT AIRMASS WILL
LIKELY BE TOO CAPPED FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  VFR
FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSHOWERS TO AT LEAST THE SOUTHWEST
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS IS A TRICKY FORECAST TIME FRAME...AS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD SPREAD A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST ON SATURDAY EVENING. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN REBUILD ACROSS THE
REGION AS AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA STAYS WELL
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PANHANDLES. THEREFORE...EXPECT DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND
MODELS ARE IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR MUCH OF
THE PANHANDLES TO SEE SOME RAINFALL. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE DRY AS ZONAL UPPER FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                44  66  47  73  51 /   0  10   5   5  10
BEAVER OK                  45  69  47  82  52 /   0   5   5   5  10
BOISE CITY OK              42  67  45  77  48 /   0   5   5   5  10
BORGER TX                  48  68  51  80  55 /   0  10   5   5  10
BOYS RANCH TX              45  68  48  76  50 /   0  10   5  10  10
CANYON TX                  43  69  47  74  50 /   0  20   5  10  10
CLARENDON TX               47  67  49  73  53 /   0  10   5   5  10
DALHART TX                 42  68  43  74  46 /   0  10   5  10  10
GUYMON OK                  43  67  45  80  49 /   0   5   5   5  10
HEREFORD TX                43  68  45  73  50 /   0  20  10  10  10
LIPSCOMB TX                44  68  46  78  53 /   0   0   5   5  10
PAMPA TX                   44  64  48  74  52 /   0   5   5   5  10
SHAMROCK TX                45  69  46  74  53 /   0   0   5   5  10
WELLINGTON TX              47  71  48  76  54 /   0   5   5   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/19






000
FXUS64 KAMA 172333 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
633 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.AVIATION...
LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
ONLY HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.  NO OVERNIGHT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS FORESEEN.  INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SATURDAY WITH
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 KT.  SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST COULD CAUSE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...BUT AIRMASS WILL
LIKELY BE TOO CAPPED FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  VFR
FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSHOWERS TO AT LEAST THE SOUTHWEST
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS IS A TRICKY FORECAST TIME FRAME...AS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD SPREAD A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST ON SATURDAY EVENING. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN REBUILD ACROSS THE
REGION AS AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA STAYS WELL
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PANHANDLES. THEREFORE...EXPECT DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND
MODELS ARE IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR MUCH OF
THE PANHANDLES TO SEE SOME RAINFALL. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE DRY AS ZONAL UPPER FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                44  66  47  73  51 /   0  10   5   5  10
BEAVER OK                  45  69  47  82  52 /   0   5   5   5  10
BOISE CITY OK              42  67  45  77  48 /   0   5   5   5  10
BORGER TX                  48  68  51  80  55 /   0  10   5   5  10
BOYS RANCH TX              45  68  48  76  50 /   0  10   5  10  10
CANYON TX                  43  69  47  74  50 /   0  20   5  10  10
CLARENDON TX               47  67  49  73  53 /   0  10   5   5  10
DALHART TX                 42  68  43  74  46 /   0  10   5  10  10
GUYMON OK                  43  67  45  80  49 /   0   5   5   5  10
HEREFORD TX                43  68  45  73  50 /   0  20  10  10  10
LIPSCOMB TX                44  68  46  78  53 /   0   0   5   5  10
PAMPA TX                   44  64  48  74  52 /   0   5   5   5  10
SHAMROCK TX                45  69  46  74  53 /   0   0   5   5  10
WELLINGTON TX              47  71  48  76  54 /   0   5   5   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/19







000
FXUS64 KAMA 172333 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
633 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.AVIATION...
LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
ONLY HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.  NO OVERNIGHT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS FORESEEN.  INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SATURDAY WITH
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 KT.  SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST COULD CAUSE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...BUT AIRMASS WILL
LIKELY BE TOO CAPPED FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  VFR
FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSHOWERS TO AT LEAST THE SOUTHWEST
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS IS A TRICKY FORECAST TIME FRAME...AS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD SPREAD A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST ON SATURDAY EVENING. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN REBUILD ACROSS THE
REGION AS AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA STAYS WELL
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PANHANDLES. THEREFORE...EXPECT DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND
MODELS ARE IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR MUCH OF
THE PANHANDLES TO SEE SOME RAINFALL. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE DRY AS ZONAL UPPER FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                44  66  47  73  51 /   0  10   5   5  10
BEAVER OK                  45  69  47  82  52 /   0   5   5   5  10
BOISE CITY OK              42  67  45  77  48 /   0   5   5   5  10
BORGER TX                  48  68  51  80  55 /   0  10   5   5  10
BOYS RANCH TX              45  68  48  76  50 /   0  10   5  10  10
CANYON TX                  43  69  47  74  50 /   0  20   5  10  10
CLARENDON TX               47  67  49  73  53 /   0  10   5   5  10
DALHART TX                 42  68  43  74  46 /   0  10   5  10  10
GUYMON OK                  43  67  45  80  49 /   0   5   5   5  10
HEREFORD TX                43  68  45  73  50 /   0  20  10  10  10
LIPSCOMB TX                44  68  46  78  53 /   0   0   5   5  10
PAMPA TX                   44  64  48  74  52 /   0   5   5   5  10
SHAMROCK TX                45  69  46  74  53 /   0   0   5   5  10
WELLINGTON TX              47  71  48  76  54 /   0   5   5   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/19






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