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000
FXUS64 KAMA 041055
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
555 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT WINDS
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OUT OF THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN AOB
12KT THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE THE THEME OF THE FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 8
DEGREES WARMER TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS NEARS THE AREA. WARMING CONTINUES ON
THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING INTO THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE
WHICH COUPLED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ON FRIDAY THE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. WE SHOULD STILL BE ABLE
TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AREA WIDE HOWEVER THIS FURTHER
EAST POSITION OF THE RIDGE AXIS COULD ALLOW EASTERN NEW MEXICO
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION SNEAK INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THERE IS SOME QUESTION IF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER SO HAVE
WITHHELD MENTION IN THE WEATHER GRIDS.

THE WEEKEND REMAINS OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
BETTER PART OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY MIDDAY SATURDAY
BEFORE SLOWLY EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY/TUESDAY. AS
THE LOW APPROACHES ON SATURDAY, AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
ANTICIPATED TO ROUND THE LOW AND PROVIDE SYNOPTIC LIFT FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AS
TO THE TIMING OF THIS TROUGH AND THUS INITIATE CONVECTION AT
DIFFERENT TIMES. THE GFS AND NAM PRESENT THE FASTER TIMING OF THE
TROUGH TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY
TIMEFRAME WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS CONVECTION TO START AROUND MIDDAY AND
THE CMC HOLDING OFF ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION UNTIL THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THE FASTER INITIATION TIMES DID SEEM TO
LACK SOME OF THE HIGHER VALUES OF INSTABILITY WHILE THE LATER
INITIATION TIMES HAD A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH THEY
GENERALLY FELL IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR STARTS
OUT AROUND 30-40KT BEFORE INCREASING TO THE 50-60KT RANGE AS WE MOVE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. DURING THE EARLY ONSET OF CONVECTION THE MAIN
THREATS LOOK TO BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. AS WE MOVE INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WE COULD BE LOOKING AT LESS OF A WIND
THREAT WHILE HANGING ONTO THE CHANCE FOR HAIL. THIS ROUND OF
CONVECTION LOOKS TO COME TO AN END DURING THE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY DUE TO
DIFFERENT DRYLINE PLACEMENTS. THE FURTHER WEST PLACEMENT OF THE
DRYLINE IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING A ROUND OF PRECIP HAS WORKED WELL IN
THE PAST AS SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE DIFFICULTY CAPTURING  THE
RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE. AS A RESULT THE FURTHER WEST
PLACEMENT OF THE DRYLINE OPENS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES UP TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW MUCH BETTER
INSTABILITY CLOSER TO THE DRYLINE THAN SATURDAY BUT ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP ON THE DRYLINE SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

THE DRYSLOT OF THE SYSTEM SETS UP RESIDENCE OVER THE PANHANDLES FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO KEEP THE AREA RELATIVELY PRECIPITATION FREE.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA TO KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES FOR
TUESDAY. THE CLOSED LOW MOVES TOWARDS IOWA BY WEDNESDAY TO PLACE THE
PANHANDLES UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                77  48  85  52  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  80  47  86  54  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              75  44  84  49  83 /   0   0   0   0  10
BORGER TX                  79  51  86  55  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              79  47  87  54  87 /   0   0   0   0  10
CANYON TX                  78  46  85  51  85 /   0   0   0   0   5
CLARENDON TX               79  50  83  52  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 76  45  84  49  85 /   0   0   0   0  10
GUYMON OK                  78  48  86  52  87 /   0   0   0   0   5
HEREFORD TX                78  47  86  52  86 /   0   0   0   0   5
LIPSCOMB TX                80  49  85  54  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   77  49  84  53  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                80  50  82  53  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              81  50  83  53  86 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14





000
FXUS64 KAMA 040932
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
432 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE THE THEME OF THE FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 8
DEGREES WARMER TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS NEARS THE AREA. WARMING CONTINUES ON
THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING INTO THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE
WHICH COUPLED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ON FRIDAY THE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. WE SHOULD STILL BE ABLE
TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AREA WIDE HOWEVER THIS FURTHER
EAST POSITION OF THE RIDGE AXIS COULD ALLOW EASTERN NEW MEXICO
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION SNEAK INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THERE IS SOME QUESTION IF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER SO HAVE
WITHHELD MENTION IN THE WEATHER GRIDS.

THE WEEKEND REMAINS OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
BETTER PART OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY MIDDAY SATURDAY
BEFORE SLOWLY EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY/TUESDAY. AS
THE LOW APPROACHES ON SATURDAY, AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
ANTICIPATED TO ROUND THE LOW AND PROVIDE SYNOPTIC LIFT FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AS
TO THE TIMING OF THIS TROUGH AND THUS INITIATE CONVECTION AT
DIFFERENT TIMES. THE GFS AND NAM PRESENT THE FASTER TIMING OF THE
TROUGH TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY
TIMEFRAME WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS CONVECTION TO START AROUND MIDDAY AND
THE CMC HOLDING OFF ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION UNTIL THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THE FASTER INITIATION TIMES DID SEEM TO
LACK SOME OF THE HIGHER VALUES OF INSTABILITY WHILE THE LATER
INITIATION TIMES HAD A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH THEY
GENERALLY FELL IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR STARTS
OUT AROUND 30-40KT BEFORE INCREASING TO THE 50-60KT RANGE AS WE MOVE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. DURING THE EARLY ONSET OF CONVECTION THE MAIN
THREATS LOOK TO BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. AS WE MOVE INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WE COULD BE LOOKING AT LESS OF A WIND
THREAT WHILE HANGING ONTO THE CHANCE FOR HAIL. THIS ROUND OF
CONVECTION LOOKS TO COME TO AN END DURING THE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY DUE TO
DIFFERENT DRYLINE PLACEMENTS. THE FURTHER WEST PLACEMENT OF THE
DRYLINE IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING A ROUND OF PRECIP HAS WORKED WELL IN
THE PAST AS SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE DIFFICULTY CAPTURING  THE
RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE. AS A RESULT THE FURTHER WEST
PLACEMENT OF THE DRYLINE OPENS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES UP TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW MUCH BETTER
INSTABILITY CLOSER TO THE DRYLINE THAN SATURDAY BUT ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP ON THE DRYLINE SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

THE DRYSLOT OF THE SYSTEM SETS UP RESIDENCE OVER THE PANHANDLES FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO KEEP THE AREA RELATIVELY PRECIPITATION FREE.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA TO KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES FOR
TUESDAY. THE CLOSED LOW MOVES TOWARDS IOWA BY WEDNESDAY TO PLACE THE
PANHANDLES UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                77  48  85  52  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  80  47  86  54  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              75  44  84  49  83 /   0   0   0   0  10
BORGER TX                  79  51  86  55  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              79  47  87  54  87 /   0   0   0   0  10
CANYON TX                  78  46  85  51  85 /   0   0   0   0   5
CLARENDON TX               79  50  83  52  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 76  45  84  49  85 /   0   0   0   0  10
GUYMON OK                  78  48  86  52  87 /   0   0   0   0   5
HEREFORD TX                78  47  86  52  86 /   0   0   0   0   5
LIPSCOMB TX                80  49  85  54  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   77  49  84  53  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                80  50  82  53  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              81  50  83  53  86 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

18/14





000
FXUS64 KAMA 040317
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1017 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE PANHANDLES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...MOSTLY WEST TO NORTH WINDS VEERING AND BECOMING NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHEAST BY 00Z THURSDAY...5 TO 15 KNOTS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN TO THE PANHANDLES FROM THE WEST THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. NORTH
AND NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A PASSING UPPER-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A QUICK WARMUP IS THEN STILL EXPECTED FOR
TOMORROW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH ATTENTION TURNING TO THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE WEEKEND. DETAILS CAN BE FOUND BELOW.

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. HAVE GONE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT/S LOWS AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.

GOEHRING

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE FROM TODAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY TRANSLATING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE
PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY...MEANING THAT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL LIKELY
BE THE WARMEST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WIDESPREAD MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S
ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL ALSO MEAN A BREAK
FROM PRECIP UNTIL IT MOVES EAST OF THE PANHANDLES OVER THE WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE LOW OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND A SURFACE HIGH MOVING TOWARD THE GULF COAST WILL SLOWLY
DRAW MOISTURE BACK INTO THIS REGION. ALL CURRENT FORECAST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND EAST OF A DRYLINE ON SATURDAY...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE
DRYLINE WILL BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLES BY SATURDAY EVENING. MID-50S DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE EASTERN HALF BY THAT TIME...WHILE A 100KT JET STREAK EDGES IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A MODEST CAP MAY BE FOUND EAST OF THE DRYLINE
SATURDAY...THOUGH DECENT HEATING AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SEE STORMS DEVELOP. MLCAPE OF NEAR 1000-1500
J/KG SHOULD BE AVAILABLE EAST OF THE DRYLINE...WITH 40-60 KTS OF
0-6KM SHEAR EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES BY SUNDAY 00Z. THEREFORE
AS IT STANDS NOW...SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY EVENING. THE DRYLINE IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RETREAT
WESTWARD OVERNIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR AREA ON
SUNDAY...GIVEN THE POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF SATURDAY WEATHER ON THE
ATMOSPHERE. ALSO A MORE SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN DRYLINE SHOULD PUSH INTO
THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY COULD QUICKLY PUSH EAST OF THE PANHANDLES THAT DAY. HAVE
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES ON
SUNDAY. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT SHOULD BE REACHING THE PANHANDLES FROM
THE WEST ON SUNDAY...WITH THE POLAR FRONT PUSHING THROUGH FOLLOWING A
SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

NF

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                44  76  48  84  53 /   5   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  44  79  47  85  54 /   5   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              42  75  45  84  50 /   0   0   0   0   5
BORGER TX                  46  79  51  85  55 /   5   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              43  78  47  86  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  42  78  47  84  53 /   5   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               46  78  51  82  53 /   5   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 41  76  45  83  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  44  77  48  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                41  77  47  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                44  78  49  84  54 /   5   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   45  76  49  83  53 /   5   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                47  79  50  82  54 /   5   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              49  81  51  83  54 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/10





000
FXUS64 KAMA 032334
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
634 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN TO THE PANHANDLES FROM THE WEST THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. NORTH
AND NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A PASSING UPPER-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A QUICK WARMUP IS THEN STILL EXPECTED FOR
TOMORROW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH ATTENTION TURNING TO THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE WEEKEND. DETAILS CAN BE FOUND BELOW.

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. HAVE GONE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT/S LOWS AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.

GOEHRING

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE FROM TODAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY TRANSLATING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE
PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY...MEANING THAT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL LIKELY
BE THE WARMEST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WIDESPREAD MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S
ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL ALSO MEAN A BREAK
FROM PRECIP UNTIL IT MOVES EAST OF THE PANHANDLES OVER THE WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE LOW OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND A SURFACE HIGH MOVING TOWARD THE GULF COAST WILL SLOWLY
DRAW MOISTURE BACK INTO THIS REGION. ALL CURRENT FORECAST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND EAST OF A DRYLINE ON SATURDAY...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE
DRYLINE WILL BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLES BY SATURDAY EVENING. MID-50S DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE EASTERN HALF BY THAT TIME...WHILE A 100KT JET STREAK EDGES IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A MODEST CAP MAY BE FOUND EAST OF THE DRYLINE
SATURDAY...THOUGH DECENT HEATING AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SEE STORMS DEVELOP. MLCAPE OF NEAR 1000-1500
J/KG SHOULD BE AVAILABLE EAST OF THE DRYLINE...WITH 40-60 KTS OF
0-6KM SHEAR EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES BY SUNDAY 00Z. THEREFORE
AS IT STANDS NOW...SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY EVENING. THE DRYLINE IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RETREAT
WESTWARD OVERNIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR AREA ON
SUNDAY...GIVEN THE POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF SATURDAY WEATHER ON THE
ATMOSPHERE. ALSO A MORE SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN DRYLINE SHOULD PUSH INTO
THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY COULD QUICKLY PUSH EAST OF THE PANHANDLES THAT DAY. HAVE
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES ON
SUNDAY. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT SHOULD BE REACHING THE PANHANDLES FROM
THE WEST ON SUNDAY...WITH THE POLAR FRONT PUSHING THROUGH FOLLOWING A
SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

NF

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                44  76  48  84  53 /   5   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  44  79  47  85  54 /   5   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              42  75  45  84  50 /   0   0   0   0   5
BORGER TX                  46  79  51  85  55 /   5   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              43  78  47  86  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  42  78  47  84  53 /   5   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               46  78  51  82  53 /   5   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 41  76  45  83  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  44  77  48  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                41  77  47  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                44  78  49  84  54 /   5   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   45  76  49  83  53 /   5   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                47  79  50  82  54 /   5   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              49  81  51  83  54 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/10





000
FXUS64 KAMA 032334
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
634 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN TO THE PANHANDLES FROM THE WEST THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. NORTH
AND NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A PASSING UPPER-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A QUICK WARMUP IS THEN STILL EXPECTED FOR
TOMORROW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH ATTENTION TURNING TO THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE WEEKEND. DETAILS CAN BE FOUND BELOW.

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. HAVE GONE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT/S LOWS AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.

GOEHRING

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE FROM TODAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY TRANSLATING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE
PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY...MEANING THAT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL LIKELY
BE THE WARMEST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WIDESPREAD MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S
ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL ALSO MEAN A BREAK
FROM PRECIP UNTIL IT MOVES EAST OF THE PANHANDLES OVER THE WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE LOW OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND A SURFACE HIGH MOVING TOWARD THE GULF COAST WILL SLOWLY
DRAW MOISTURE BACK INTO THIS REGION. ALL CURRENT FORECAST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND EAST OF A DRYLINE ON SATURDAY...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE
DRYLINE WILL BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLES BY SATURDAY EVENING. MID-50S DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE EASTERN HALF BY THAT TIME...WHILE A 100KT JET STREAK EDGES IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A MODEST CAP MAY BE FOUND EAST OF THE DRYLINE
SATURDAY...THOUGH DECENT HEATING AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SEE STORMS DEVELOP. MLCAPE OF NEAR 1000-1500
J/KG SHOULD BE AVAILABLE EAST OF THE DRYLINE...WITH 40-60 KTS OF
0-6KM SHEAR EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES BY SUNDAY 00Z. THEREFORE
AS IT STANDS NOW...SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY EVENING. THE DRYLINE IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RETREAT
WESTWARD OVERNIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR AREA ON
SUNDAY...GIVEN THE POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF SATURDAY WEATHER ON THE
ATMOSPHERE. ALSO A MORE SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN DRYLINE SHOULD PUSH INTO
THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY COULD QUICKLY PUSH EAST OF THE PANHANDLES THAT DAY. HAVE
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES ON
SUNDAY. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT SHOULD BE REACHING THE PANHANDLES FROM
THE WEST ON SUNDAY...WITH THE POLAR FRONT PUSHING THROUGH FOLLOWING A
SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

NF

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                44  76  48  84  53 /   5   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  44  79  47  85  54 /   5   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              42  75  45  84  50 /   0   0   0   0   5
BORGER TX                  46  79  51  85  55 /   5   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              43  78  47  86  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  42  78  47  84  53 /   5   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               46  78  51  82  53 /   5   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 41  76  45  83  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  44  77  48  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                41  77  47  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                44  78  49  84  54 /   5   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   45  76  49  83  53 /   5   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                47  79  50  82  54 /   5   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              49  81  51  83  54 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/10





000
FXUS64 KAMA 032159
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
459 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A PASSING UPPER-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A QUICK WARMUP IS THEN STILL EXPECTED FOR
TOMORROW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH ATTENTION TURNING TO THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE WEEKEND. DETAILS CAN BE FOUND BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. HAVE GONE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT/S LOWS AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.

GOEHRING

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE FROM TODAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY TRANSLATING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE
PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY...MEANING THAT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL LIKELY
BE THE WARMEST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WIDESPREAD MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S
ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL ALSO MEAN A BREAK
FROM PRECIP UNTIL IT MOVES EAST OF THE PANHANDLES OVER THE WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE LOW OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND A SURFACE HIGH MOVING TOWARD THE GULF COAST WILL SLOWLY
DRAW MOISTURE BACK INTO THIS REGION. ALL CURRENT FORECAST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND EAST OF A DRYLINE ON SATURDAY...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE
DRYLINE WILL BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLES BY SATURDAY EVENING. MID-50S DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE EASTERN HALF BY THAT TIME...WHILE A 100KT JET STREAK EDGES IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A MODEST CAP MAY BE FOUND EAST OF THE DRYLINE
SATURDAY...THOUGH DECENT HEATING AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SEE STORMS DEVELOP. MLCAPE OF NEAR 1000-1500
J/KG SHOULD BE AVAILABLE EAST OF THE DRYLINE...WITH 40-60 KTS OF
0-6KM SHEAR EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES BY SUNDAY 00Z. THEREFORE
AS IT STANDS NOW...SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY EVENING. THE DRYLINE IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RETREAT
WESTWARD OVERNIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR AREA ON
SUNDAY...GIVEN THE POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF SATURDAY WEATHER ON THE
ATMOSPHERE. ALSO A MORE SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN DRYLINE SHOULD PUSH INTO
THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY COULD QUICKLY PUSH EAST OF THE PANHANDLES THAT DAY. HAVE
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES ON
SUNDAY. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT SHOULD BE REACHING THE PANHANDLES FROM
THE WEST ON SUNDAY...WITH THE POLAR FRONT PUSHING THROUGH FOLLOWING A
SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

NF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                44  76  48  84  53 /   5   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  44  79  47  85  54 /   5   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              42  75  45  84  50 /   0   0   0   0   5
BORGER TX                  46  79  51  85  55 /   5   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              43  78  47  86  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  42  78  47  84  53 /   5   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               46  78  51  82  53 /   5   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 41  76  45  83  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  44  77  48  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                41  77  47  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                44  78  49  84  54 /   5   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   45  76  49  83  53 /   5   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                47  79  50  82  54 /   5   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              49  81  51  83  54 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/6





000
FXUS64 KAMA 031702 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1202 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE NEAR THE AMA TAF SITE...BUT HAVE LEFT THE
MENTION OF THEM OUT FOR NOW SINCE THEY SHOULD NOT CREATE CONDITIONS
BELOW VFR. THE DHT AND GUY TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE TO BELOW 10 KNOTS WITH
SUNSET. WINDS WILL PICK UP INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AFTER SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY AGAIN. SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...MAINLY
JUST INCREASING LOW-END VFR CLOUDS AND BRINGING SOME GUSTS NEAR 25KTS
OUT OF THE NORTH. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE KAMA COULD SEE A VERY
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE KEPT
VCTS MENTION FOR NOW. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AND
REMAIN MOSTLY OUT OF THE NORTH WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

ELSENHEIMER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL QUICKLY SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS TROUGH WILL FORCE A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE PANHANDLES TODAY.
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
CLOSE TO NOON.  THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW BEFORE HEIGHTS RISE WHERE
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OR SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. OVERALL 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES NEAR 30KTS AND A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE COULD BE REALIZED DURING PEAK HEATING IF CLOUD
COVER DOESN`T GET THERE FIRST.  HOWEVER...MOST INSTABILITY WOULD
LIKELY BE MORE ELEVATED IN NATURE AND OUTSIDE OF MAYBE A STRONG
STORM OR TWO THINK SEVERE THREAT IS MINIMAL.

HEIGHTS CONTINUE RISING MIDWEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS TO OUR
WEST AND GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD.  TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN CLOSER
TO NORMAL OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL (UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S). SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE PLAINS UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN LEESIDE
TROUGHING STARTS TO DEVELOP.  ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES THURSDAY. GUIDANCE VARIED
QUITE A BIT ON DEWPOINTS AS TO HOW FAR AND HOW MUCH DRIER AIR COULD
FILTER IN...SO IT WOULDN`T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BECOME MORE LIKELY AS WE GET CLOSER.

LONG TERM...
FRIDAY CONTINUES THE WARM AND TRY TREND FOR THE PANHANDLES. WITH THAT
BEING SAID, AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST OF THE PANHANDLES. THIS COULD OPEN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CORNERS
UP TO A COUPLE OF STORMS COMING OFF THE NEW MEXICO MOUNTAINS. HAVE
HELD OFF ON INSERTING THESE CHANCES DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

THE WEEKEND REMAINS THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR THE AREA TO SEE PRECIP
CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. A CUT OFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL HAVE A
LITTLE DIFFICULTY ON TIMING EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
CLOSED LOW. THESE DIFFERENCES WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT  IMPACTS ON THE
DURATION, TIMING, AND STRENGTH OF OUR STORMS. THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS
HAS A FASTER TIMING ON THE SHORTWAVES WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR TWO ROUND
OF PRECIP, ONE ON SATURDAY DAYTIME AND ANOTHER OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THE LESS AGGRESSIVE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE SHORTWAVE
WHICH RESULTS IN SLOWER INITIATION OF STORMS (SATURDAY EVENING) WITH
CHANCES LINGERING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES,
BOTH SHOW THAT THE FIRST ROUND/SATURDAY STORMS PRESENT THE GREATEST
RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 TO 50KTS
AND CAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THE SEVERITY OF THE SECOND ROUND OF
CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE LOW.

BY MONDAY THE PANHANDLES ENDS UP IN THE DRYSLOT OF THE UPPER LOW TO
BRING RAIN CHANCES TO AN END. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE
THE PANHANDLES ON TUESDAY TO BRING SOME COOLER WEATHER FOR THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                69  43  77  47  84 /  20   5   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  70  43  79  46  88 /  10   5   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              66  40  75  42  84 /  10   0   0   0   5
BORGER TX                  71  47  80  50  86 /  20   5   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              70  42  79  45  87 /  10   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  70  41  79  44  85 /  30   5   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               71  45  77  50  83 /  30   5   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 69  40  76  43  83 /  10   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  70  44  78  46  87 /  10   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                71  42  78  45  86 /  20   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                71  45  78  48  87 /  20   5   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   70  45  76  49  86 /  20   5   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                72  46  79  49  83 /  30   5   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              73  46  80  49  83 /  30   5   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/6





000
FXUS64 KAMA 031702 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1202 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE NEAR THE AMA TAF SITE...BUT HAVE LEFT THE
MENTION OF THEM OUT FOR NOW SINCE THEY SHOULD NOT CREATE CONDITIONS
BELOW VFR. THE DHT AND GUY TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE TO BELOW 10 KNOTS WITH
SUNSET. WINDS WILL PICK UP INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AFTER SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY AGAIN. SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...MAINLY
JUST INCREASING LOW-END VFR CLOUDS AND BRINGING SOME GUSTS NEAR 25KTS
OUT OF THE NORTH. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE KAMA COULD SEE A VERY
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE KEPT
VCTS MENTION FOR NOW. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AND
REMAIN MOSTLY OUT OF THE NORTH WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

ELSENHEIMER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL QUICKLY SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS TROUGH WILL FORCE A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE PANHANDLES TODAY.
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
CLOSE TO NOON.  THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW BEFORE HEIGHTS RISE WHERE
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OR SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. OVERALL 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES NEAR 30KTS AND A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE COULD BE REALIZED DURING PEAK HEATING IF CLOUD
COVER DOESN`T GET THERE FIRST.  HOWEVER...MOST INSTABILITY WOULD
LIKELY BE MORE ELEVATED IN NATURE AND OUTSIDE OF MAYBE A STRONG
STORM OR TWO THINK SEVERE THREAT IS MINIMAL.

HEIGHTS CONTINUE RISING MIDWEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS TO OUR
WEST AND GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD.  TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN CLOSER
TO NORMAL OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL (UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S). SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE PLAINS UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN LEESIDE
TROUGHING STARTS TO DEVELOP.  ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES THURSDAY. GUIDANCE VARIED
QUITE A BIT ON DEWPOINTS AS TO HOW FAR AND HOW MUCH DRIER AIR COULD
FILTER IN...SO IT WOULDN`T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BECOME MORE LIKELY AS WE GET CLOSER.

LONG TERM...
FRIDAY CONTINUES THE WARM AND TRY TREND FOR THE PANHANDLES. WITH THAT
BEING SAID, AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST OF THE PANHANDLES. THIS COULD OPEN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CORNERS
UP TO A COUPLE OF STORMS COMING OFF THE NEW MEXICO MOUNTAINS. HAVE
HELD OFF ON INSERTING THESE CHANCES DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

THE WEEKEND REMAINS THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR THE AREA TO SEE PRECIP
CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. A CUT OFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL HAVE A
LITTLE DIFFICULTY ON TIMING EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
CLOSED LOW. THESE DIFFERENCES WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT  IMPACTS ON THE
DURATION, TIMING, AND STRENGTH OF OUR STORMS. THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS
HAS A FASTER TIMING ON THE SHORTWAVES WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR TWO ROUND
OF PRECIP, ONE ON SATURDAY DAYTIME AND ANOTHER OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THE LESS AGGRESSIVE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE SHORTWAVE
WHICH RESULTS IN SLOWER INITIATION OF STORMS (SATURDAY EVENING) WITH
CHANCES LINGERING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES,
BOTH SHOW THAT THE FIRST ROUND/SATURDAY STORMS PRESENT THE GREATEST
RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 TO 50KTS
AND CAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THE SEVERITY OF THE SECOND ROUND OF
CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE LOW.

BY MONDAY THE PANHANDLES ENDS UP IN THE DRYSLOT OF THE UPPER LOW TO
BRING RAIN CHANCES TO AN END. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE
THE PANHANDLES ON TUESDAY TO BRING SOME COOLER WEATHER FOR THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                69  43  77  47  84 /  20   5   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  70  43  79  46  88 /  10   5   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              66  40  75  42  84 /  10   0   0   0   5
BORGER TX                  71  47  80  50  86 /  20   5   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              70  42  79  45  87 /  10   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  70  41  79  44  85 /  30   5   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               71  45  77  50  83 /  30   5   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 69  40  76  43  83 /  10   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  70  44  78  46  87 /  10   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                71  42  78  45  86 /  20   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                71  45  78  48  87 /  20   5   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   70  45  76  49  86 /  20   5   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                72  46  79  49  83 /  30   5   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              73  46  80  49  83 /  30   5   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/6





000
FXUS64 KAMA 031129
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
629 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...MAINLY
JUST INCREASING LOW-END VFR CLOUDS AND BRINGING SOME GUSTS NEAR 25KTS
OUT OF THE NORTH. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE KAMA COULD SEE A VERY
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE KEPT
VCTS MENTION FOR NOW. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AND
REMAIN MOSTLY OUT OF THE NORTH WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL QUICKLY SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS TROUGH WILL FORCE A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE PANHANDLES TODAY.
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
CLOSE TO NOON.  THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW BEFORE HEIGHTS RISE WHERE
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OR SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. OVERALL 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES NEAR 30KTS AND A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE COULD BE REALIZED DURING PEAK HEATING IF CLOUD
COVER DOESN`T GET THERE FIRST.  HOWEVER...MOST INSTABILITY WOULD
LIKELY BE MORE ELEVATED IN NATURE AND OUTSIDE OF MAYBE A STRONG
STORM OR TWO THINK SEVERE THREAT IS MINIMAL.

HEIGHTS CONTINUE RISING MIDWEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS TO OUR
WEST AND GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD.  TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN CLOSER
TO NORMAL OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL (UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S). SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE PLAINS UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN LEESIDE
TROUGHING STARTS TO DEVELOP.  ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES THURSDAY. GUIDANCE VARIED
QUITE A BIT ON DEWPOINTS AS TO HOW FAR AND HOW MUCH DRIER AIR COULD
FILTER IN...SO IT WOULDN`T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BECOME MORE LIKELY AS WE GET CLOSER.

LONG TERM...
FRIDAY CONTINUES THE WARM AND TRY TREND FOR THE PANHANDLES. WITH THAT
BEING SAID, AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST OF THE PANHANDLES. THIS COULD OPEN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CORNERS
UP TO A COUPLE OF STORMS COMING OFF THE NEW MEXICO MOUNTAINS. HAVE
HELD OFF ON INSERTING THESE CHANCES DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

THE WEEKEND REMAINS THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR THE AREA TO SEE PRECIP
CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. A CUT OFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL HAVE A
LITTLE DIFFICULTY ON TIMING EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
CLOSED LOW. THESE DIFFERENCES WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT  IMPACTS ON THE
DURATION, TIMING, AND STRENGTH OF OUR STORMS. THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS
HAS A FASTER TIMING ON THE SHORTWAVES WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR TWO ROUND
OF PRECIP, ONE ON SATURDAY DAYTIME AND ANOTHER OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THE LESS AGGRESSIVE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE SHORTWAVE
WHICH RESULTS IN SLOWER INITIATION OF STORMS (SATURDAY EVENING) WITH
CHANCES LINGERING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES,
BOTH SHOW THAT THE FIRST ROUND/SATURDAY STORMS PRESENT THE GREATEST
RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 TO 50KTS
AND CAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THE SEVERITY OF THE SECOND ROUND OF
CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE LOW.

BY MONDAY THE PANHANDLES ENDS UP IN THE DRYSLOT OF THE UPPER LOW TO
BRING RAIN CHANCES TO AN END. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE
THE PANHANDLES ON TUESDAY TO BRING SOME COOLER WEATHER FOR THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                69  43  77  47  84 /  20   5   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  70  43  79  46  88 /  10   5   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              66  40  75  42  84 /  10   0   0   0   5
BORGER TX                  71  47  80  50  86 /  20   5   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              70  42  79  45  87 /  10   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  70  41  79  44  85 /  30   5   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               71  45  77  50  83 /  30   5   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 69  40  76  43  83 /  10   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  70  44  78  46  87 /  10   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                71  42  78  45  86 /  20   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                71  45  78  48  87 /  20   5   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   70  45  76  49  86 /  20   5   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                72  46  79  49  83 /  30   5   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              73  46  80  49  83 /  30   5   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

18/14





000
FXUS64 KAMA 031129
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
629 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...MAINLY
JUST INCREASING LOW-END VFR CLOUDS AND BRINGING SOME GUSTS NEAR 25KTS
OUT OF THE NORTH. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE KAMA COULD SEE A VERY
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE KEPT
VCTS MENTION FOR NOW. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AND
REMAIN MOSTLY OUT OF THE NORTH WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL QUICKLY SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS TROUGH WILL FORCE A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE PANHANDLES TODAY.
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
CLOSE TO NOON.  THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW BEFORE HEIGHTS RISE WHERE
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OR SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. OVERALL 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES NEAR 30KTS AND A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE COULD BE REALIZED DURING PEAK HEATING IF CLOUD
COVER DOESN`T GET THERE FIRST.  HOWEVER...MOST INSTABILITY WOULD
LIKELY BE MORE ELEVATED IN NATURE AND OUTSIDE OF MAYBE A STRONG
STORM OR TWO THINK SEVERE THREAT IS MINIMAL.

HEIGHTS CONTINUE RISING MIDWEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS TO OUR
WEST AND GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD.  TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN CLOSER
TO NORMAL OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL (UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S). SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE PLAINS UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN LEESIDE
TROUGHING STARTS TO DEVELOP.  ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES THURSDAY. GUIDANCE VARIED
QUITE A BIT ON DEWPOINTS AS TO HOW FAR AND HOW MUCH DRIER AIR COULD
FILTER IN...SO IT WOULDN`T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BECOME MORE LIKELY AS WE GET CLOSER.

LONG TERM...
FRIDAY CONTINUES THE WARM AND TRY TREND FOR THE PANHANDLES. WITH THAT
BEING SAID, AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST OF THE PANHANDLES. THIS COULD OPEN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CORNERS
UP TO A COUPLE OF STORMS COMING OFF THE NEW MEXICO MOUNTAINS. HAVE
HELD OFF ON INSERTING THESE CHANCES DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

THE WEEKEND REMAINS THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR THE AREA TO SEE PRECIP
CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. A CUT OFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL HAVE A
LITTLE DIFFICULTY ON TIMING EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
CLOSED LOW. THESE DIFFERENCES WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT  IMPACTS ON THE
DURATION, TIMING, AND STRENGTH OF OUR STORMS. THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS
HAS A FASTER TIMING ON THE SHORTWAVES WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR TWO ROUND
OF PRECIP, ONE ON SATURDAY DAYTIME AND ANOTHER OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THE LESS AGGRESSIVE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE SHORTWAVE
WHICH RESULTS IN SLOWER INITIATION OF STORMS (SATURDAY EVENING) WITH
CHANCES LINGERING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES,
BOTH SHOW THAT THE FIRST ROUND/SATURDAY STORMS PRESENT THE GREATEST
RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 TO 50KTS
AND CAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THE SEVERITY OF THE SECOND ROUND OF
CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE LOW.

BY MONDAY THE PANHANDLES ENDS UP IN THE DRYSLOT OF THE UPPER LOW TO
BRING RAIN CHANCES TO AN END. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE
THE PANHANDLES ON TUESDAY TO BRING SOME COOLER WEATHER FOR THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                69  43  77  47  84 /  20   5   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  70  43  79  46  88 /  10   5   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              66  40  75  42  84 /  10   0   0   0   5
BORGER TX                  71  47  80  50  86 /  20   5   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              70  42  79  45  87 /  10   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  70  41  79  44  85 /  30   5   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               71  45  77  50  83 /  30   5   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 69  40  76  43  83 /  10   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  70  44  78  46  87 /  10   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                71  42  78  45  86 /  20   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                71  45  78  48  87 /  20   5   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   70  45  76  49  86 /  20   5   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                72  46  79  49  83 /  30   5   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              73  46  80  49  83 /  30   5   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

18/14





000
FXUS64 KAMA 030953
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
453 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL QUICKLY SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS TROUGH WILL FORCE A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE PANHANDLES TODAY.
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
CLOSE TO NOON.  THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW BEFORE HEIGHTS RISE WHERE
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OR SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. OVERALL 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES NEAR 30KTS AND A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE COULD BE REALIZED DURING PEAK HEATING IF CLOUD
COVER DOESN`T GET THERE FIRST.  HOWEVER...MOST INSTABILITY WOULD
LIKELY BE MORE ELEVATED IN NATURE AND OUTSIDE OF MAYBE A STRONG
STORM OR TWO THINK SEVERE THREAT IS MINIMAL.

HEIGHTS CONTINUE RISING MIDWEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS TO OUR
WEST AND GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD.  TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN CLOSER
TO NORMAL OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL (UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S). SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE PLAINS UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN LEESIDE
TROUGHING STARTS TO DEVELOP.  ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES THURSDAY. GUIDANCE VARIED
QUITE A BIT ON DEWPOINTS AS TO HOW FAR AND HOW MUCH DRIER AIR COULD
FILTER IN...SO IT WOULDN`T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BECOME MORE LIKELY AS WE GET CLOSER.


&&

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY CONTINUES THE WARM AND TRY TREND FOR THE PANHANDLES. WITH THAT
BEING SAID, AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST OF THE PANHANDLES. THIS COULD OPEN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CORNERS
UP TO A COUPLE OF STORMS COMING OFF THE NEW MEXICO MOUNTAINS. HAVE
HELD OFF ON INSERTING THESE CHANCES DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

THE WEEKEND REMAINS THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR THE AREA TO SEE PRECIP
CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. A CUT OFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL HAVE A
LITTLE DIFFICULTY ON TIMING EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
CLOSED LOW. THESE DIFFERENCES WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT  IMPACTS ON THE
DURATION, TIMING, AND STRENGTH OF OUR STORMS. THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS
HAS A FASTER TIMING ON THE SHORTWAVES WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR TWO ROUND
OF PRECIP, ONE ON SATURDAY DAYTIME AND ANOTHER OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THE LESS AGGRESSIVE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE SHORTWAVE
WHICH RESULTS IN SLOWER INITIATION OF STORMS (SATUDAY EVENING) WITH
CHANCES LINGERING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES,
BOTH SHOW THAT THE FIRST ROUND/SATURDAY STORMS PRESENT THE GREATEST
RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 TO 50KTS
AND CAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THE SEVERITY OF THE SECOND ROUND OF
CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE LOW.

BY MONDAY THE PANHANDLES ENDS UP IN THE DRYSLOT OF THE UPPER LOW TO
BRING RAIN CHANCES TO AN END. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE
THE PANHANDLES ON TUESDAY TO BRING SOME COOLER WEATHER FOR THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                69  43  77  47  84 /  20   5   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  70  43  79  46  88 /  10   5   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              66  40  75  42  84 /  10   0   0   0   5
BORGER TX                  71  47  80  50  86 /  20   5   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              70  42  79  45  87 /  10   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  70  41  79  44  85 /  30   5   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               71  45  77  50  83 /  30   5   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 69  40  76  43  83 /  10   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  70  44  78  46  87 /  10   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                71  42  78  45  86 /  20   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                71  45  78  48  87 /  20   5   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   70  45  76  49  86 /  20   5   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                72  46  79  49  83 /  30   5   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              73  46  80  49  83 /  30   5   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

18/14





000
FXUS64 KAMA 030357
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1057 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...
NO REAL CHANGES TO EARLIER FORECAST.  STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL
DROP SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...SHORTLY BEHIND
COLD FRONT.  VERY LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ISOLATED...PRIMARILY IN SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...WHERE STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE.  OTHER THAN
ANY REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...VFR FORECAST
CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

AVIATION...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH DIRECTION
TRENDING TO WEST BY DAYBREAK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DEPARTS TO
THE EAST.  GENERALLY CLEAR SKY EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH NO VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS FORESEEN.

COLD FRONT PASSES NORTHERN TERMINALS BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z
TUESDAY...SHIFTING SURFACE WINDS TO NORTHWEST.  SURFACE WIND SPEEDS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT.
GENERALLY CLEAR SKY PREVAILS DURING THE DAY AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.

COLD FRONT REACHES KAMA AROUND 17Z TUESDAY.  POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KAMA AFTER 19Z AS VORTICITY MAXIMUM
ARRIVES DURING THE WARMER PART OF THE DAY.  WILL CARRY VCTS AND
SCATTERED HIGH-BASED CB LAYER AFTER 19Z AT KAMA.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
GENERAL FORECAST REASONING REMAINS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
THE REMNANTS OF THE LAST UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARE
CURRENTLY BECOMING ABSORBED INTO A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE
ROCKIES. A STEEP NORTH TO SOUTH FLOW ALOFT WILL GUIDE A QUICK-MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...WITH THE TIMING HAVING
IMPLICATIONS FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO DIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND DRAG A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PANHANDLES BY 7 PM. CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY STORMS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE FRONT DURING
THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS...SO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE IS BEST
FAVORED FOR SCATTERED STORMS. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ONLY ABOUT 500
J/KG OF CAPE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR STORMS TO TAP INTO...SO NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER ONES.

AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR ONLY A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF THE UPPER-AIR FEATURES ACROSS THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN A LITTLE SLOWER THAN IN
RECENT DAYS...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NOT PASSING THE PANHANDLES UNTIL
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST UNTIL SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...APART FROM ANY LOCALIZED EFFECTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE IS ONLY A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR HIGH BASED CONVECTION TO EDGE
INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE POPS FOR THAT PERIOD AT THIS TIME.

SOME QUESTION REMAINS AS TO MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY BUT GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL
INDICATE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS ON THE PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE
HIGH WILL STILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT LOW- TO MID-50S DEWPOINTS INTO THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES BY SATURDAY EVENING. A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
OVER SOUTHERN CO/KS WILL HELP TO TIGHTEN THE DRYLINE OVER THE
PANHANDLES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS.
RECENT EVENTS HAVE SHOWN THE DRYLINE TO HOLD BACK A LITTLE FARTHER
WEST...AND SEE NO DIFFERENT INDICATIONS FOR THIS CASE. AS THE DRYLINE
RETREATS WESTWARD EACH EVENING...WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLES COULD SEE BETTER CHANCES OVERNIGHT. MODELS INDICATE
1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE WILL BE AVAILABLE AND JUST EAST OF THE
DRYLINE. AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL AID IN PROVIDING LIFT AND
SHEAR FOR STORMS...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-60 KTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME ON
MONDAY.

NF

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                39  69  43  77  48 /   0  30   5   0   0
BEAVER OK                  38  71  43  79  46 /   0  10   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              36  66  40  76  44 /   5  10   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  42  71  46  80  51 /   5  20   5   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              39  71  42  79  46 /   5  20   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  38  70  42  79  46 /   0  30   5   0   0
CLARENDON TX               41  71  45  79  49 /   0  30   5   0   0
DALHART TX                 37  68  40  77  44 /   5  10   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  39  69  42  78  47 /   5  10   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                38  70  42  78  46 /   0  30   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                40  71  44  79  48 /   0  20   5   0   0
PAMPA TX                   40  69  44  77  48 /   0  20   5   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                42  71  46  79  50 /   0  30   5   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              43  72  47  81  50 /   0  30   5   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/11





000
FXUS64 KAMA 022341
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
641 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH DIRECTION
TRENDING TO WEST BY DAYBREAK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DEPARTS TO
THE EAST.  GENERALLY CLEAR SKY EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH NO VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS FORESEEN.

COLD FRONT PASSES NORTHERN TERMINALS BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z
TUESDAY...SHIFTING SURFACE WINDS TO NORTHWEST.  SURFACE WIND SPEEDS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT.
GENERALLY CLEAR SKY PREVAILS DURING THE DAY AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.

COLD FRONT REACHES KAMA AROUND 17Z TUESDAY.  POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KAMA AFTER 19Z AS VORTICITY MAXIMUM
ARRIVES DURING THE WARMER PART OF THE DAY.  WILL CARRY VCTS AND
SCATTERED HIGH-BASED CB LAYER AFTER 19Z AT KAMA.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
GENERAL FORECAST REASONING REMAINS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
THE REMNANTS OF THE LAST UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARE
CURRENTLY BECOMING ABSORBED INTO A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE
ROCKIES. A STEEP NORTH TO SOUTH FLOW ALOFT WILL GUIDE A QUICK-MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...WITH THE TIMING HAVING
IMPLICATIONS FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO DIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND DRAG A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PANHANDLES BY 7 PM. CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY STORMS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE FRONT DURING
THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS...SO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE IS BEST
FAVORED FOR SCATTERED STORMS. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ONLY ABOUT 500
J/KG OF CAPE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR STORMS TO TAP INTO...SO NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER ONES.

AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR ONLY A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF THE UPPER-AIR FEATURES ACROSS THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN A LITTLE SLOWER THAN IN
RECENT DAYS...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NOT PASSING THE PANHANDLES UNTIL
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST UNTIL SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...APART FROM ANY LOCALIZED EFFECTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE IS ONLY A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR HIGH BASED CONVECTION TO EDGE
INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE POPS FOR THAT PERIOD AT THIS TIME.

SOME QUESTION REMAINS AS TO MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY BUT GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL
INDICATE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS ON THE PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE
HIGH WILL STILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT LOW- TO MID-50S DEWPOINTS INTO THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES BY SATURDAY EVENING. A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
OVER SOUTHERN CO/KS WILL HELP TO TIGHTEN THE DRYLINE OVER THE
PANHANDLES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS.
RECENT EVENTS HAVE SHOWN THE DRYLINE TO HOLD BACK A LITTLE FARTHER
WEST...AND SEE NO DIFFERENT INDICATIONS FOR THIS CASE. AS THE DRYLINE
RETREATS WESTWARD EACH EVENING...WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLES COULD SEE BETTER CHANCES OVERNIGHT. MODELS INDICATE
1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE WILL BE AVAILABLE AND JUST EAST OF THE
DRYLINE. AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL AID IN PROVIDING LIFT AND
SHEAR FOR STORMS...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-60 KTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME ON
MONDAY.

NF

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                39  69  43  77  48 /   0  30   5   0   0
BEAVER OK                  38  71  43  79  46 /   0  10   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              36  66  40  76  44 /   5  10   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  42  71  46  80  51 /   5  20   5   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              39  71  42  79  46 /   5  20   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  38  70  42  79  46 /   0  30   5   0   0
CLARENDON TX               41  71  45  79  49 /   0  30   5   0   0
DALHART TX                 37  68  40  77  44 /   5  10   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  39  69  42  78  47 /   5  10   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                38  70  42  78  46 /   0  30   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                40  71  44  79  48 /   0  20   5   0   0
PAMPA TX                   40  69  44  77  48 /   0  20   5   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                42  71  46  79  50 /   0  30   5   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              43  72  47  81  50 /   0  30   5   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/11





000
FXUS64 KAMA 022128
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
428 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
GENERAL FORECAST REASONING REMAINS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
THE REMNANTS OF THE LAST UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARE
CURRENTLY BECOMING ABSORBED INTO A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE
ROCKIES. A STEEP NORTH TO SOUTH FLOW ALOFT WILL GUIDE A QUICK-MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...WITH THE TIMING HAVING
IMPLICATIONS FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO DIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND DRAG A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PANHANDLES BY 7 PM. CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY STORMS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE FRONT DURING
THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS...SO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE IS BEST
FAVORED FOR SCATTERED STORMS. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ONLY ABOUT 500
J/KG OF CAPE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR STORMS TO TAP INTO...SO NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER ONES.

AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR ONLY A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF THE UPPER-AIR FEATURES ACROSS THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN A LITTLE SLOWER THAN IN
RECENT DAYS...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NOT PASSING THE PANHANDLES UNTIL
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST UNTIL SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...APART FROM ANY LOCALIZED EFFECTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE IS ONLY A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR HIGH BASED CONVECTION TO EDGE
INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE POPS FOR THAT PERIOD AT THIS TIME.

SOME QUESTION REMAINS AS TO MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY BUT GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL
INDICATE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS ON THE PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE
HIGH WILL STILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT LOW- TO MID-50S DEWPOINTS INTO THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES BY SATURDAY EVENING. A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
OVER SOUTHERN CO/KS WILL HELP TO TIGHTEN THE DRYLINE OVER THE
PANHANDLES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS.
RECENT EVENTS HAVE SHOWN THE DRYLINE TO HOLD BACK A LITTLE FARTHER
WEST...AND SEE NO DIFFERENT INDICATIONS FOR THIS CASE. AS THE DRYLINE
RETREATS WESTWARD EACH EVENING...WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLES COULD SEE BETTER CHANCES OVERNIGHT. MODELS INDICATE
1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE WILL BE AVAILABLE AND JUST EAST OF THE
DRYLINE. AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL AID IN PROVIDING LIFT AND
SHEAR FOR STORMS...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-60 KTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME ON
MONDAY.

NF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                39  69  43  77  48 /   0  30   5   0   0
BEAVER OK                  38  71  43  79  46 /   0  10   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              36  66  40  76  44 /   5  10   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  42  71  46  80  51 /   5  20   5   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              39  71  42  79  46 /   5  20   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  38  70  42  79  46 /   0  30   5   0   0
CLARENDON TX               41  71  45  79  49 /   0  30   5   0   0
DALHART TX                 37  68  40  77  44 /   5  10   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  39  69  42  78  47 /   5  10   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                38  70  42  78  46 /   0  30   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                40  71  44  79  48 /   0  20   5   0   0
PAMPA TX                   40  69  44  77  48 /   0  20   5   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                42  71  46  79  50 /   0  30   5   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              43  72  47  81  50 /   0  30   5   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/6





000
FXUS64 KAMA 021654 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1154 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN PICK UP
BEHIND A COLD FRONT AT DHT AND GUY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL LIKELY
GET GUSTY AT GUY. THE FRONT WILL NOT QUITE MAKE IT TO AMA BEFORE THE
END OF THIS FORECAST. SOME SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION THEM IN THIS FORECAST. SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...OUTSIDE OF SOME VERY PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE
THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE NORTH AT 10KTS OR LESS...AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. LATE TONIGHT...LOW END VFR CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AND
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHERLY BY TOMORROW MORNING.

ELSENHEIMER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID 30S IN THE
FROST ADVISRY REGION...SO WILL ALLOW THAT HEADLINE TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DURATION...EXPIRING AT 8 AM.

OTHERWISE...CLOUDS ARE DECREASING WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
ANTICIPATED TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER MAX TEMPS COMPARED TO
SUNDAYS VALUES. THEN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT AS THE NEXT FAST MOVG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE SRN HIGH PLAINS FROM THE NORTH.

ON TUESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED MINOR UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF WILL
SWEEP SWD ACROSS THE OK AND TX PNHDLS AND WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
LIFT TO ASSIST IN PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. HOWEVER...LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL EXIST FOR THIS FEATURE TO WORK WITH SO HAVE KEPT POPS
IN THE SLGT CHC CATEGORY AREAWIDE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THIS
PARTICULAR STORM SYSTEM IS FAST MOVG AND SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY SUNSET TUE EVENING. THEREFORE...NO POPS TUE NIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WHICH IS FCST TO DIG DOWN THE CA
COAST AND SETTLE INTO A POSITION NEAR THE SWRN STATES BY 12Z FRIDAY.
DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPS ARE IN THE OFFING FOR WED THRU FRIDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE HANDLING THE NEXT STRONG
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PRESSURE STORM SYSTEM FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THE 00Z ECMWF...CANADIAN...AND TO SOME EXTENT THE UKMET AND 06Z DGEX
MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER COMPARED TO THE 00Z GFS. HAVE DECIDED TO LEAN
A BIT MORE WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER MEDIUM RANGE MAJORITY SOLUTIONS
WITH RESPECT TO POPS FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME
STORMS THIS WEEKEND TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. HOWEVER...WILL COMMENT THAT THE QUALITY OF
MOISTURE RETURN FOR THIS WEEKEND IS SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT THIS FAR OUT
IN TIME...WHICH WILL DICTATE HOW MUCH SEVERE WEATHER OCCURS IN OUR
AREA. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL HAVE MOVED
OFF THE TEXAS COAST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH COULD RETARD
DEEP MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR AREA THAT MAY HAVE NORMALLY OCCURRED IF
THE GULF OF MEXICO WAS UNIMPEDED. NEVERTHELESS...THERE SHOULD BE AT
LEAST ENUF MOISTURE RETURN TO WARRANT POPS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS
VALUES. SHOULD BETTER AND DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN BECOME MORE
PROMINENT LATE THIS WEEK...THEN IT WOULD APPEAR POPS MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED AND THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE AS WELL. THIS
WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH AS THE WEEK UNFOLDS.

ANDRADE

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                63  40  69  43  78 /   0   5  20   5   0
BEAVER OK                  63  38  70  42  78 /   0   5  20   5   0
BOISE CITY OK              60  38  67  39  77 /   0  10  20   5   0
BORGER TX                  66  44  69  46  80 /   0   5  20   5   0
BOYS RANCH TX              63  38  69  41  78 /   0   5  20   5   0
CANYON TX                  63  40  69  43  78 /   0   5  20   5   0
CLARENDON TX               65  42  70  45  80 /   0   0  20   5   0
DALHART TX                 62  38  68  40  78 /   0  10  20   5   0
GUYMON OK                  63  40  69  43  79 /   0  10  20   5   0
HEREFORD TX                63  39  69  42  78 /   0   5  20   5   0
LIPSCOMB TX                64  39  70  43  79 /   0   5  20   5   0
PAMPA TX                   64  40  69  44  78 /   0   5  20   5   0
SHAMROCK TX                65  42  70  45  80 /   0   0  20   5   0
WELLINGTON TX              67  43  72  47  81 /   0   0  20   5   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/6





000
FXUS64 KAMA 021654 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1154 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN PICK UP
BEHIND A COLD FRONT AT DHT AND GUY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL LIKELY
GET GUSTY AT GUY. THE FRONT WILL NOT QUITE MAKE IT TO AMA BEFORE THE
END OF THIS FORECAST. SOME SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION THEM IN THIS FORECAST. SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...OUTSIDE OF SOME VERY PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE
THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE NORTH AT 10KTS OR LESS...AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. LATE TONIGHT...LOW END VFR CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AND
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHERLY BY TOMORROW MORNING.

ELSENHEIMER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID 30S IN THE
FROST ADVISRY REGION...SO WILL ALLOW THAT HEADLINE TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DURATION...EXPIRING AT 8 AM.

OTHERWISE...CLOUDS ARE DECREASING WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
ANTICIPATED TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER MAX TEMPS COMPARED TO
SUNDAYS VALUES. THEN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT AS THE NEXT FAST MOVG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE SRN HIGH PLAINS FROM THE NORTH.

ON TUESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED MINOR UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF WILL
SWEEP SWD ACROSS THE OK AND TX PNHDLS AND WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
LIFT TO ASSIST IN PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. HOWEVER...LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL EXIST FOR THIS FEATURE TO WORK WITH SO HAVE KEPT POPS
IN THE SLGT CHC CATEGORY AREAWIDE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THIS
PARTICULAR STORM SYSTEM IS FAST MOVG AND SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY SUNSET TUE EVENING. THEREFORE...NO POPS TUE NIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WHICH IS FCST TO DIG DOWN THE CA
COAST AND SETTLE INTO A POSITION NEAR THE SWRN STATES BY 12Z FRIDAY.
DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPS ARE IN THE OFFING FOR WED THRU FRIDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE HANDLING THE NEXT STRONG
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PRESSURE STORM SYSTEM FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THE 00Z ECMWF...CANADIAN...AND TO SOME EXTENT THE UKMET AND 06Z DGEX
MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER COMPARED TO THE 00Z GFS. HAVE DECIDED TO LEAN
A BIT MORE WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER MEDIUM RANGE MAJORITY SOLUTIONS
WITH RESPECT TO POPS FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME
STORMS THIS WEEKEND TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. HOWEVER...WILL COMMENT THAT THE QUALITY OF
MOISTURE RETURN FOR THIS WEEKEND IS SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT THIS FAR OUT
IN TIME...WHICH WILL DICTATE HOW MUCH SEVERE WEATHER OCCURS IN OUR
AREA. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL HAVE MOVED
OFF THE TEXAS COAST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH COULD RETARD
DEEP MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR AREA THAT MAY HAVE NORMALLY OCCURRED IF
THE GULF OF MEXICO WAS UNIMPEDED. NEVERTHELESS...THERE SHOULD BE AT
LEAST ENUF MOISTURE RETURN TO WARRANT POPS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS
VALUES. SHOULD BETTER AND DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN BECOME MORE
PROMINENT LATE THIS WEEK...THEN IT WOULD APPEAR POPS MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED AND THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE AS WELL. THIS
WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH AS THE WEEK UNFOLDS.

ANDRADE

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                63  40  69  43  78 /   0   5  20   5   0
BEAVER OK                  63  38  70  42  78 /   0   5  20   5   0
BOISE CITY OK              60  38  67  39  77 /   0  10  20   5   0
BORGER TX                  66  44  69  46  80 /   0   5  20   5   0
BOYS RANCH TX              63  38  69  41  78 /   0   5  20   5   0
CANYON TX                  63  40  69  43  78 /   0   5  20   5   0
CLARENDON TX               65  42  70  45  80 /   0   0  20   5   0
DALHART TX                 62  38  68  40  78 /   0  10  20   5   0
GUYMON OK                  63  40  69  43  79 /   0  10  20   5   0
HEREFORD TX                63  39  69  42  78 /   0   5  20   5   0
LIPSCOMB TX                64  39  70  43  79 /   0   5  20   5   0
PAMPA TX                   64  40  69  44  78 /   0   5  20   5   0
SHAMROCK TX                65  42  70  45  80 /   0   0  20   5   0
WELLINGTON TX              67  43  72  47  81 /   0   0  20   5   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/6





000
FXUS64 KAMA 021131
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
631 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...OUTSIDE OF SOME VERY PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE
THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE NORTH AT 10KTS OR LESS...AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. LATE TONIGHT...LOW END VFR CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AND
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHERLY BY TOMORROW MORNING.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID 30S IN THE
FROST ADVISRY REGION...SO WILL ALLOW THAT HEADLINE TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DURATION...EXPIRING AT 8 AM.

OTHERWISE...CLOUDS ARE DECREASING WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
ANTICIPATED TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER MAX TEMPS COMPARED TO
SUNDAYS VALUES. THEN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT AS THE NEXT FAST MOVG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE SRN HIGH PLAINS FROM THE NORTH.

ON TUESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED MINOR UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF WILL
SWEEP SWD ACROSS THE OK AND TX PNHDLS AND WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
LIFT TO ASSIST IN PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. HOWEVER...LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL EXIST FOR THIS FEATURE TO WORK WITH SO HAVE KEPT POPS
IN THE SLGT CHC CATEGORY AREAWIDE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THIS
PARTICULAR STORM SYSTEM IS FAST MOVG AND SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY SUNSET TUE EVENING. THEREFORE...NO POPS TUE NIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WHICH IS FCST TO DIG DOWN THE CA
COAST AND SETTLE INTO A POSITION NEAR THE SWRN STATES BY 12Z FRIDAY.
DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPS ARE IN THE OFFING FOR WED THRU FRIDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE HANDLING THE NEXT STRONG
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PRESSURE STORM SYSTEM FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THE 00Z ECMWF...CANADIAN...AND TO SOME EXTENT THE UKMET AND 06Z DGEX
MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER COMPARED TO THE 00Z GFS. HAVE DECIDED TO LEAN
A BIT MORE WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER MEDIUM RANGE MAJORITY SOLUTIONS
WITH RESPECT TO POPS FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME
STORMS THIS WEEKEND TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. HOWEVER...WILL COMMENT THAT THE QUALITY OF
MOISTURE RETURN FOR THIS WEEKEND IS SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT THIS FAR OUT
IN TIME...WHICH WILL DICTATE HOW MUCH SEVERE WEATHER OCCURS IN OUR
AREA. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL HAVE MOVED
OFF THE TEXAS COAST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH COULD RETARD
DEEP MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR AREA THAT MAY HAVE NORMALLY OCCURRED IF
THE GULF OF MEXICO WAS UNIMPEDED. NEVERTHELESS...THERE SHOULD BE AT
LEAST ENUF MOISTURE RETURN TO WARRANT POPS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS
VALUES. SHOULD BETTER AND DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN BECOME MORE
PROMINENT LATE THIS WEEK...THEN IT WOULD APPEAR POPS MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED AND THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE AS WELL. THIS
WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH AS THE WEEK UNFOLDS.

ANDRADE

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                63  40  69  43  78 /   0   5  20   5   0
BEAVER OK                  63  38  70  42  78 /   0   5  20   5   0
BOISE CITY OK              60  38  67  39  77 /   0  10  20   5   0
BORGER TX                  66  44  69  46  80 /   0   5  20   5   0
BOYS RANCH TX              63  38  69  41  78 /   0   5  20   5   0
CANYON TX                  63  40  69  43  78 /   0   5  20   5   0
CLARENDON TX               65  42  70  45  80 /   0   0  20   5   0
DALHART TX                 62  38  68  40  78 /   0  10  20   5   0
GUYMON OK                  63  40  69  43  79 /   0  10  20   5   0
HEREFORD TX                63  39  69  42  78 /   0   5  20   5   0
LIPSCOMB TX                64  39  70  43  79 /   0   5  20   5   0
PAMPA TX                   64  40  69  44  78 /   0   5  20   5   0
SHAMROCK TX                65  42  70  45  80 /   0   0  20   5   0
WELLINGTON TX              67  43  72  47  81 /   0   0  20   5   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

18/2





000
FXUS64 KAMA 021131
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
631 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...OUTSIDE OF SOME VERY PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE
THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE NORTH AT 10KTS OR LESS...AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. LATE TONIGHT...LOW END VFR CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AND
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHERLY BY TOMORROW MORNING.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID 30S IN THE
FROST ADVISRY REGION...SO WILL ALLOW THAT HEADLINE TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DURATION...EXPIRING AT 8 AM.

OTHERWISE...CLOUDS ARE DECREASING WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
ANTICIPATED TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER MAX TEMPS COMPARED TO
SUNDAYS VALUES. THEN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT AS THE NEXT FAST MOVG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE SRN HIGH PLAINS FROM THE NORTH.

ON TUESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED MINOR UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF WILL
SWEEP SWD ACROSS THE OK AND TX PNHDLS AND WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
LIFT TO ASSIST IN PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. HOWEVER...LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL EXIST FOR THIS FEATURE TO WORK WITH SO HAVE KEPT POPS
IN THE SLGT CHC CATEGORY AREAWIDE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THIS
PARTICULAR STORM SYSTEM IS FAST MOVG AND SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY SUNSET TUE EVENING. THEREFORE...NO POPS TUE NIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WHICH IS FCST TO DIG DOWN THE CA
COAST AND SETTLE INTO A POSITION NEAR THE SWRN STATES BY 12Z FRIDAY.
DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPS ARE IN THE OFFING FOR WED THRU FRIDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE HANDLING THE NEXT STRONG
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PRESSURE STORM SYSTEM FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THE 00Z ECMWF...CANADIAN...AND TO SOME EXTENT THE UKMET AND 06Z DGEX
MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER COMPARED TO THE 00Z GFS. HAVE DECIDED TO LEAN
A BIT MORE WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER MEDIUM RANGE MAJORITY SOLUTIONS
WITH RESPECT TO POPS FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME
STORMS THIS WEEKEND TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. HOWEVER...WILL COMMENT THAT THE QUALITY OF
MOISTURE RETURN FOR THIS WEEKEND IS SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT THIS FAR OUT
IN TIME...WHICH WILL DICTATE HOW MUCH SEVERE WEATHER OCCURS IN OUR
AREA. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL HAVE MOVED
OFF THE TEXAS COAST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH COULD RETARD
DEEP MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR AREA THAT MAY HAVE NORMALLY OCCURRED IF
THE GULF OF MEXICO WAS UNIMPEDED. NEVERTHELESS...THERE SHOULD BE AT
LEAST ENUF MOISTURE RETURN TO WARRANT POPS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS
VALUES. SHOULD BETTER AND DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN BECOME MORE
PROMINENT LATE THIS WEEK...THEN IT WOULD APPEAR POPS MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED AND THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE AS WELL. THIS
WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH AS THE WEEK UNFOLDS.

ANDRADE

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                63  40  69  43  78 /   0   5  20   5   0
BEAVER OK                  63  38  70  42  78 /   0   5  20   5   0
BOISE CITY OK              60  38  67  39  77 /   0  10  20   5   0
BORGER TX                  66  44  69  46  80 /   0   5  20   5   0
BOYS RANCH TX              63  38  69  41  78 /   0   5  20   5   0
CANYON TX                  63  40  69  43  78 /   0   5  20   5   0
CLARENDON TX               65  42  70  45  80 /   0   0  20   5   0
DALHART TX                 62  38  68  40  78 /   0  10  20   5   0
GUYMON OK                  63  40  69  43  79 /   0  10  20   5   0
HEREFORD TX                63  39  69  42  78 /   0   5  20   5   0
LIPSCOMB TX                64  39  70  43  79 /   0   5  20   5   0
PAMPA TX                   64  40  69  44  78 /   0   5  20   5   0
SHAMROCK TX                65  42  70  45  80 /   0   0  20   5   0
WELLINGTON TX              67  43  72  47  81 /   0   0  20   5   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

18/2





000
FXUS64 KAMA 020956
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
456 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID 30S IN THE
FROST ADVISRY REGION...SO WILL ALLOW THAT HEADLINE TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DURATION...EXPIRING AT 8 AM.

OTHERWISE...CLOUDS ARE DECREASING WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
ANTICIPATED TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER MAX TEMPS COMPARED TO
SUNDAYS VALUES. THEN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT AS THE NEXT FAST MOVG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE SRN HIGH PLAINS FROM THE NORTH.

ON TUESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED MINOR UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF WILL
SWEEP SWD ACROSS THE OK AND TX PNHDLS AND WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
LIFT TO ASSIST IN PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. HOWEVER...LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL EXIST FOR THIS FEATURE TO WORK WITH SO HAVE KEPT POPS
IN THE SLGT CHC CATEGORY AREAWIDE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THIS
PARTICULAR STORM SYSTEM IS FAST MOVG AND SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY SUNSET TUE EVENING. THEREFORE...NO POPS TUE NIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WHICH IS FCST TO DIG DOWN THE CA
COAST AND SETTLE INTO A POSTIION NEAR THE SWRN STATES BY 12Z FRIDAY.
DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPS ARE IN THE OFFING FOR WED THRU FRIDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE HANDLING THE NEXT STRONG
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PRESSURE STORM SYSTEM FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THE 00Z ECMWF...CANADIAN...AND TO SOME EXTENT THE UKMET AND 06Z DGEX
MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER COMPARED TO THE 00Z GFS. HAVE DECIDED TO LEAN
A BIT MORE WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER MEDIUM RANGE MAJORITY SOLUTIONS
WITH RESPECT TO POPS FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME
STORMS THIS WEEKEND TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. HOWEVER...WILL COMMENT THAT THE QUALITY OF
MOISTURE RETURN FOR THIS WEEKEND IS SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT THIS FAR OUT
IN TIME...WHICH WILL DICTATE HOW MUCH SEVERE WEATHER OCCURS IN OUR
AREA. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL HAVE MOVED
OFF THE TEXAS COAST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH COULD RETARD
DEEP MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR AREA THAT MAY HAVE NORMALLY OCCURRED IF
THE GULF OF MEXICO WAS UNIMPEDED. NEVERTHELESS...THERE SHOULD BE AT
LEAST ENUF MOISTURE RETURN TO WARRANT POPS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS
VALUES. SHOULD BETTER AND DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN BECOME MORE
PROMINENT LATE THIS WEEK...THEN IT WOULD APPEAR POPS MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED AND THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE AS WELL. THIS
WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH AS THE WEEK UNFOLDS.

ANDRADE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                63  40  69  43  78 /   0   5  20   5   0
BEAVER OK                  63  38  70  42  78 /   0   5  20   5   0
BOISE CITY OK              60  38  67  39  77 /   0  10  20   5   0
BORGER TX                  66  44  69  46  80 /   0   5  20   5   0
BOYS RANCH TX              63  38  69  41  78 /   0   5  20   5   0
CANYON TX                  63  40  69  43  78 /   0   5  20   5   0
CLARENDON TX               65  42  70  45  80 /   0   0  20   5   0
DALHART TX                 62  38  68  40  78 /   0  10  20   5   0
GUYMON OK                  63  40  69  43  79 /   0  10  20   5   0
HEREFORD TX                63  39  69  42  78 /   0   5  20   5   0
LIPSCOMB TX                64  39  70  43  79 /   0   5  20   5   0
PAMPA TX                   64  40  69  44  78 /   0   5  20   5   0
SHAMROCK TX                65  42  70  45  80 /   0   0  20   5   0
WELLINGTON TX              67  43  72  47  81 /   0   0  20   5   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KAMA 020956
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
456 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID 30S IN THE
FROST ADVISRY REGION...SO WILL ALLOW THAT HEADLINE TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DURATION...EXPIRING AT 8 AM.

OTHERWISE...CLOUDS ARE DECREASING WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
ANTICIPATED TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER MAX TEMPS COMPARED TO
SUNDAYS VALUES. THEN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT AS THE NEXT FAST MOVG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE SRN HIGH PLAINS FROM THE NORTH.

ON TUESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED MINOR UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF WILL
SWEEP SWD ACROSS THE OK AND TX PNHDLS AND WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
LIFT TO ASSIST IN PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. HOWEVER...LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL EXIST FOR THIS FEATURE TO WORK WITH SO HAVE KEPT POPS
IN THE SLGT CHC CATEGORY AREAWIDE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THIS
PARTICULAR STORM SYSTEM IS FAST MOVG AND SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY SUNSET TUE EVENING. THEREFORE...NO POPS TUE NIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WHICH IS FCST TO DIG DOWN THE CA
COAST AND SETTLE INTO A POSTIION NEAR THE SWRN STATES BY 12Z FRIDAY.
DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPS ARE IN THE OFFING FOR WED THRU FRIDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE HANDLING THE NEXT STRONG
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PRESSURE STORM SYSTEM FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THE 00Z ECMWF...CANADIAN...AND TO SOME EXTENT THE UKMET AND 06Z DGEX
MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER COMPARED TO THE 00Z GFS. HAVE DECIDED TO LEAN
A BIT MORE WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER MEDIUM RANGE MAJORITY SOLUTIONS
WITH RESPECT TO POPS FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME
STORMS THIS WEEKEND TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. HOWEVER...WILL COMMENT THAT THE QUALITY OF
MOISTURE RETURN FOR THIS WEEKEND IS SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT THIS FAR OUT
IN TIME...WHICH WILL DICTATE HOW MUCH SEVERE WEATHER OCCURS IN OUR
AREA. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL HAVE MOVED
OFF THE TEXAS COAST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH COULD RETARD
DEEP MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR AREA THAT MAY HAVE NORMALLY OCCURRED IF
THE GULF OF MEXICO WAS UNIMPEDED. NEVERTHELESS...THERE SHOULD BE AT
LEAST ENUF MOISTURE RETURN TO WARRANT POPS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS
VALUES. SHOULD BETTER AND DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN BECOME MORE
PROMINENT LATE THIS WEEK...THEN IT WOULD APPEAR POPS MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED AND THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE AS WELL. THIS
WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH AS THE WEEK UNFOLDS.

ANDRADE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                63  40  69  43  78 /   0   5  20   5   0
BEAVER OK                  63  38  70  42  78 /   0   5  20   5   0
BOISE CITY OK              60  38  67  39  77 /   0  10  20   5   0
BORGER TX                  66  44  69  46  80 /   0   5  20   5   0
BOYS RANCH TX              63  38  69  41  78 /   0   5  20   5   0
CANYON TX                  63  40  69  43  78 /   0   5  20   5   0
CLARENDON TX               65  42  70  45  80 /   0   0  20   5   0
DALHART TX                 62  38  68  40  78 /   0  10  20   5   0
GUYMON OK                  63  40  69  43  79 /   0  10  20   5   0
HEREFORD TX                63  39  69  42  78 /   0   5  20   5   0
LIPSCOMB TX                64  39  70  43  79 /   0   5  20   5   0
PAMPA TX                   64  40  69  44  78 /   0   5  20   5   0
SHAMROCK TX                65  42  70  45  80 /   0   0  20   5   0
WELLINGTON TX              67  43  72  47  81 /   0   0  20   5   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KAMA 020323 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1023 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
NO REAL CHANGES FROM FORECAST OF SIX HOURS AGO.  OCCASIONAL LIFTING
OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE NOTED AT NORTHERN TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH TRUE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED AROUND 09Z.  AT
KAMA...MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LINGER UNTIL AROUND 15Z...WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKY THEREAFTER.  LIGHT NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 954 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRAPHICAL FORECASTS AND TEXT PRODUCTS...ELIMINATING RAIN
SHOWERS AND SNOW FROM MOST SECTIONS...LEAVING SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS
IN FAR NORTHERN ZONES AND DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE TONIGHT.  LACK OF
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE EXPECTED TO PREVENT ANY FURTHER MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION OVER TEXAS PANHANDLE.  NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO IMPROVE.  ISENTROPIC LIFT ON
290 TO 300K SURFACES HAS DIMINISHED...BUT DEEP CLOUD LAYER EXPECTED
TO PERSIST.  DEEP SATURATED LAYER EXPECTED TO ERODE PRIMARILY FROM
DRIER AIR ALOFT...WITH ONLY GRADUAL RISING OF CEILINGS THROUGH THE
NIGHT.  FOR NOW...WILL FORECAST IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TO OCCUR BETWEEN
09Z AND 15Z MONDAY.  WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY IF SIGNS FOR QUICKER
IMPROVEMENT EMERGE.  NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
COOL AND DAMP WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LIGHT SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THEN A
RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE
PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE. A FEW CHANCES AT RAIN THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE PANHANDLES HOLDING
OFF UNTIL SATURDAY.

NF

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE OCCASIONAL SLEET OR EVEN SNOW
MIXING IN...WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TX AND OK
PANHANDLES THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL CEASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY
TOMORROW MORNING...WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THAT TIME. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE HEARD AT TIMES. AS
NORTH WINDS BECOME LIGHTER OVERNIGHT...TEMPS COULD DROP LOW ENOUGH TO
SEE SOME FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
PANHANDLES. HUMIDITY WILL BE HIGH WHICH WOULD AID FROST
DEVELOPMENT...BUT CLOUD COVER MAY HOLD ON WHICH WOULD LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT. A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM ROUGHLY MIDNIGHT TO 8
AM CDT MONDAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE TRANSITIONING EARLY
THIS WEEK FROM THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TO A
BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THE
BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL DISPLACE THE ACTIVE WEATHER TO OUR EAST...WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP ON TUESDAY AS ONE LAST SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. RECENT GUIDANCE HAS SPED UP
THE TIMING FOR THIS SHORTWAVE AND IT MAY END UP PASSING TOO EARLY IN
THE DAY TUESDAY FOR US TO SEE STORMS DEVELOP IN OUR CWA.

THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHILE ANOTHER
DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS
FROM THE PACIFIC. THE ECMWF NOW LAGS SLIGHTLY IN ITS TIMING COMPARED
WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS...BUT THERE IS GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE SLOWER
EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE RIDGE...IT NOW LOOKS LIKE ANY CONVECTION ON
THURSDAY MAY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS OF NM. CURRENTLY HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OUR WEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT IN CASE ANY STORMS
DO MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST. CHANCES SHIFT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...A LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS...AND BETTER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE PANHANDLES. STILL
THINKING THAT SATURDAY EVENING HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP...SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME SEVERE. DEPENDING ON THE
SYSTEM STRENGTH AND TIMING...THE DRYLINE LOOKS TO SETUP ACROSS THE
WESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY EVENING AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLES ON SATURDAY. MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 50 TO 70 KTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DRYLINE SATURDAY
NIGHT. STORMS ALSO POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE FAR EAST ON SUNDAY.

NF

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                37  62  40  68  43 /  20   5   5  20   5
BEAVER OK                  36  65  38  71  43 /  60   5  10  10   5
BOISE CITY OK              33  59  36  67  39 /  60   5  10  20   5
BORGER TX                  39  64  41  69  46 /  30   5   5  20   5
BOYS RANCH TX              35  63  38  70  42 /  30   5   5  20   5
CANYON TX                  35  62  38  69  42 /  20   5   5  30   5
CLARENDON TX               40  64  41  70  45 /  20   5   5  20   5
DALHART TX                 34  61  36  69  40 /  40   5  10  20   5
GUYMON OK                  37  63  39  69  43 /  60   5  10  20   5
HEREFORD TX                35  63  38  70  42 /  20   5   5  30   5
LIPSCOMB TX                40  63  39  70  44 /  50   5   5  20   5
PAMPA TX                   38  61  40  68  44 /  30   5   5  20   5
SHAMROCK TX                42  65  40  71  46 /  30   5   5  20   5
WELLINGTON TX              43  66  41  72  47 /  20   5   5  20   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...
     RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CIMARRON...TEXAS.

&&

$$

03/12





000
FXUS64 KAMA 020254 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
954 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRAPHICAL FORECASTS AND TEXT PRODUCTS...ELIMINATING RAIN
SHOWERS AND SNOW FROM MOST SECTIONS...LEAVING SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS
IN FAR NORTHERN ZONES AND DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE TONIGHT.  LACK OF
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE EXPECTED TO PREVENT ANY FURTHER MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION OVER TEXAS PANHANDLE.  NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO IMPROVE.  ISENTROPIC LIFT ON
290 TO 300K SURFACES HAS DIMINISHED...BUT DEEP CLOUD LAYER EXPECTED
TO PERSIST.  DEEP SATURATED LAYER EXPECTED TO ERODE PRIMARILY FROM
DRIER AIR ALOFT...WITH ONLY GRADUAL RISING OF CEILINGS THROUGH THE
NIGHT.  FOR NOW...WILL FORECAST IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TO OCCUR BETWEEN
09Z AND 15Z MONDAY.  WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY IF SIGNS FOR QUICKER
IMPROVEMENT EMERGE.  NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
COOL AND DAMP WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LIGHT SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THEN A
RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE
PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE. A FEW CHANCES AT RAIN THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE PANHANDLES HOLDING
OFF UNTIL SATURDAY.

NF

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE OCCASIONAL SLEET OR EVEN SNOW
MIXING IN...WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TX AND OK
PANHANDLES THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL CEASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY
TOMORROW MORNING...WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THAT TIME. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE HEARD AT TIMES. AS
NORTH WINDS BECOME LIGHTER OVERNIGHT...TEMPS COULD DROP LOW ENOUGH TO
SEE SOME FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
PANHANDLES. HUMIDITY WILL BE HIGH WHICH WOULD AID FROST
DEVELOPMENT...BUT CLOUD COVER MAY HOLD ON WHICH WOULD LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT. A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM ROUGHLY MIDNIGHT TO 8
AM CDT MONDAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE TRANSITIONING EARLY
THIS WEEK FROM THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TO A
BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THE
BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL DISPLACE THE ACTIVE WEATHER TO OUR EAST...WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP ON TUESDAY AS ONE LAST SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. RECENT GUIDANCE HAS SPED UP
THE TIMING FOR THIS SHORTWAVE AND IT MAY END UP PASSING TOO EARLY IN
THE DAY TUESDAY FOR US TO SEE STORMS DEVELOP IN OUR CWA.

THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHILE ANOTHER
DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS
FROM THE PACIFIC. THE ECMWF NOW LAGS SLIGHTLY IN ITS TIMING COMPARED
WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS...BUT THERE IS GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE SLOWER
EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE RIDGE...IT NOW LOOKS LIKE ANY CONVECTION ON
THURSDAY MAY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS OF NM. CURRENTLY HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OUR WEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT IN CASE ANY STORMS
DO MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST. CHANCES SHIFT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...A LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS...AND BETTER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE PANHANDLES. STILL
THINKING THAT SATURDAY EVENING HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP...SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME SEVERE. DEPENDING ON THE
SYSTEM STRENGTH AND TIMING...THE DRYLINE LOOKS TO SETUP ACROSS THE
WESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY EVENING AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLES ON SATURDAY. MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 50 TO 70 KTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DRYLINE SATURDAY
NIGHT. STORMS ALSO POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE FAR EAST ON SUNDAY.

NF

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                37  62  40  68  43 /  20   5   5  20   5
BEAVER OK                  36  65  38  71  43 /  60   5  10  10   5
BOISE CITY OK              33  59  36  67  39 /  60   5  10  20   5
BORGER TX                  39  64  41  69  46 /  30   5   5  20   5
BOYS RANCH TX              35  63  38  70  42 /  30   5   5  20   5
CANYON TX                  35  62  38  69  42 /  20   5   5  30   5
CLARENDON TX               40  64  41  70  45 /  20   5   5  20   5
DALHART TX                 34  61  36  69  40 /  40   5  10  20   5
GUYMON OK                  37  63  39  69  43 /  60   5  10  20   5
HEREFORD TX                35  63  38  70  42 /  20   5   5  30   5
LIPSCOMB TX                40  63  39  70  44 /  50   5   5  20   5
PAMPA TX                   38  61  40  68  44 /  30   5   5  20   5
SHAMROCK TX                42  65  40  71  46 /  30   5   5  20   5
WELLINGTON TX              43  66  41  72  47 /  20   5   5  20   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

03/12





000
FXUS64 KAMA 020254 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
954 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRAPHICAL FORECASTS AND TEXT PRODUCTS...ELIMINATING RAIN
SHOWERS AND SNOW FROM MOST SECTIONS...LEAVING SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS
IN FAR NORTHERN ZONES AND DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE TONIGHT.  LACK OF
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE EXPECTED TO PREVENT ANY FURTHER MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION OVER TEXAS PANHANDLE.  NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO IMPROVE.  ISENTROPIC LIFT ON
290 TO 300K SURFACES HAS DIMINISHED...BUT DEEP CLOUD LAYER EXPECTED
TO PERSIST.  DEEP SATURATED LAYER EXPECTED TO ERODE PRIMARILY FROM
DRIER AIR ALOFT...WITH ONLY GRADUAL RISING OF CEILINGS THROUGH THE
NIGHT.  FOR NOW...WILL FORECAST IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TO OCCUR BETWEEN
09Z AND 15Z MONDAY.  WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY IF SIGNS FOR QUICKER
IMPROVEMENT EMERGE.  NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
COOL AND DAMP WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LIGHT SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THEN A
RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE
PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE. A FEW CHANCES AT RAIN THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE PANHANDLES HOLDING
OFF UNTIL SATURDAY.

NF

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE OCCASIONAL SLEET OR EVEN SNOW
MIXING IN...WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TX AND OK
PANHANDLES THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL CEASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY
TOMORROW MORNING...WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THAT TIME. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE HEARD AT TIMES. AS
NORTH WINDS BECOME LIGHTER OVERNIGHT...TEMPS COULD DROP LOW ENOUGH TO
SEE SOME FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
PANHANDLES. HUMIDITY WILL BE HIGH WHICH WOULD AID FROST
DEVELOPMENT...BUT CLOUD COVER MAY HOLD ON WHICH WOULD LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT. A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM ROUGHLY MIDNIGHT TO 8
AM CDT MONDAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE TRANSITIONING EARLY
THIS WEEK FROM THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TO A
BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THE
BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL DISPLACE THE ACTIVE WEATHER TO OUR EAST...WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP ON TUESDAY AS ONE LAST SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. RECENT GUIDANCE HAS SPED UP
THE TIMING FOR THIS SHORTWAVE AND IT MAY END UP PASSING TOO EARLY IN
THE DAY TUESDAY FOR US TO SEE STORMS DEVELOP IN OUR CWA.

THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHILE ANOTHER
DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS
FROM THE PACIFIC. THE ECMWF NOW LAGS SLIGHTLY IN ITS TIMING COMPARED
WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS...BUT THERE IS GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE SLOWER
EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE RIDGE...IT NOW LOOKS LIKE ANY CONVECTION ON
THURSDAY MAY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS OF NM. CURRENTLY HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OUR WEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT IN CASE ANY STORMS
DO MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST. CHANCES SHIFT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...A LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS...AND BETTER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE PANHANDLES. STILL
THINKING THAT SATURDAY EVENING HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP...SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME SEVERE. DEPENDING ON THE
SYSTEM STRENGTH AND TIMING...THE DRYLINE LOOKS TO SETUP ACROSS THE
WESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY EVENING AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLES ON SATURDAY. MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 50 TO 70 KTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DRYLINE SATURDAY
NIGHT. STORMS ALSO POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE FAR EAST ON SUNDAY.

NF

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                37  62  40  68  43 /  20   5   5  20   5
BEAVER OK                  36  65  38  71  43 /  60   5  10  10   5
BOISE CITY OK              33  59  36  67  39 /  60   5  10  20   5
BORGER TX                  39  64  41  69  46 /  30   5   5  20   5
BOYS RANCH TX              35  63  38  70  42 /  30   5   5  20   5
CANYON TX                  35  62  38  69  42 /  20   5   5  30   5
CLARENDON TX               40  64  41  70  45 /  20   5   5  20   5
DALHART TX                 34  61  36  69  40 /  40   5  10  20   5
GUYMON OK                  37  63  39  69  43 /  60   5  10  20   5
HEREFORD TX                35  63  38  70  42 /  20   5   5  30   5
LIPSCOMB TX                40  63  39  70  44 /  50   5   5  20   5
PAMPA TX                   38  61  40  68  44 /  30   5   5  20   5
SHAMROCK TX                42  65  40  71  46 /  30   5   5  20   5
WELLINGTON TX              43  66  41  72  47 /  20   5   5  20   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

03/12





000
FXUS64 KAMA 012325
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
625 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO IMPROVE.  ISENTROPIC LIFT ON
290 TO 300K SURFACES HAS DIMINISHED...BUT DEEP CLOUD LAYER EXPECTED
TO PERSIST.  DEEP SATURATED LAYER EXPECTED TO ERODE PRIMARILY FROM
DRIER AIR ALOFT...WITH ONLY GRADUAL RISING OF CEILINGS THROUGH THE
NIGHT.  FOR NOW...WILL FORECAST IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TO OCCUR BETWEEN
09Z AND 15Z MONDAY.  WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY IF SIGNS FOR QUICKER
IMPROVEMENT EMERGE.  NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
COOL AND DAMP WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LIGHT SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THEN A
RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE
PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE. A FEW CHANCES AT RAIN THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE PANHANDLES HOLDING
OFF UNTIL SATURDAY.

NF

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE OCCASIONAL SLEET OR EVEN SNOW
MIXING IN...WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TX AND OK
PANHANDLES THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL CEASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY
TOMORROW MORNING...WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THAT TIME. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE HEARD AT TIMES. AS
NORTH WINDS BECOME LIGHTER OVERNIGHT...TEMPS COULD DROP LOW ENOUGH TO
SEE SOME FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
PANHANDLES. HUMIDITY WILL BE HIGH WHICH WOULD AID FROST
DEVELOPMENT...BUT CLOUD COVER MAY HOLD ON WHICH WOULD LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT. A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM ROUGHLY MIDNIGHT TO 8
AM CDT MONDAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE TRANSITIONING EARLY
THIS WEEK FROM THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TO A
BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THE
BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL DISPLACE THE ACTIVE WEATHER TO OUR EAST...WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP ON TUESDAY AS ONE LAST SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. RECENT GUIDANCE HAS SPED UP
THE TIMING FOR THIS SHORTWAVE AND IT MAY END UP PASSING TOO EARLY IN
THE DAY TUESDAY FOR US TO SEE STORMS DEVELOP IN OUR CWA.

THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHILE ANOTHER
DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS
FROM THE PACIFIC. THE ECMWF NOW LAGS SLIGHTLY IN ITS TIMING COMPARED
WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS...BUT THERE IS GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE SLOWER
EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE RIDGE...IT NOW LOOKS LIKE ANY CONVECTION ON
THURSDAY MAY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS OF NM. CURRENTLY HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OUR WEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT IN CASE ANY STORMS
DO MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST. CHANCES SHIFT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...A LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS...AND BETTER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE PANHANDLES. STILL
THINKING THAT SATURDAY EVENING HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP...SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME SEVERE. DEPENDING ON THE
SYSTEM STRENGTH AND TIMING...THE DRYLINE LOOKS TO SETUP ACROSS THE
WESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY EVENING AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLES ON SATURDAY. MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 50 TO 70 KTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DRYLINE SATURDAY
NIGHT. STORMS ALSO POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE FAR EAST ON SUNDAY.

NF

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                37  62  40  68  43 /  20   5   5  20   5
BEAVER OK                  36  65  38  71  43 /  60   5  10  10   5
BOISE CITY OK              33  59  36  67  39 /  60   5  10  20   5
BORGER TX                  39  64  41  69  46 /  30   5   5  20   5
BOYS RANCH TX              35  63  38  70  42 /  30   5   5  20   5
CANYON TX                  35  62  38  69  42 /  20   5   5  30   5
CLARENDON TX               40  64  41  70  45 /  20   5   5  20   5
DALHART TX                 34  61  36  69  40 /  40   5  10  20   5
GUYMON OK                  37  63  39  69  43 /  60   5  10  20   5
HEREFORD TX                35  63  38  70  42 /  20   5   5  30   5
LIPSCOMB TX                40  63  39  70  44 /  50   5   5  20   5
PAMPA TX                   38  61  40  68  44 /  30   5   5  20   5
SHAMROCK TX                42  65  40  71  46 /  30   5   5  20   5
WELLINGTON TX              43  66  41  72  47 /  20   5   5  20   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.

&&

$$

03/12





000
FXUS64 KAMA 012119
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
419 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
COOL AND DAMP WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LIGHT SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THEN A
RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE
PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE. A FEW CHANCES AT RAIN THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE PANHANDLES HOLDING
OFF UNTIL SATURDAY.

NF

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE OCCASIONAL SLEET OR EVEN SNOW
MIXING IN...WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TX AND OK
PANHANDLES THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL CEASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY
TOMORROW MORNING...WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THAT TIME. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE HEARD AT TIMES. AS
NORTH WINDS BECOME LIGHTER OVERNIGHT...TEMPS COULD DROP LOW ENOUGH TO
SEE SOME FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
PANHANDLES. HUMIDITY WILL BE HIGH WHICH WOULD AID FROST
DEVELOPMENT...BUT CLOUD COVER MAY HOLD ON WHICH WOULD LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT. A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM ROUGHLY MIDNIGHT TO 8
AM CDT MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE TRANSITIONING EARLY
THIS WEEK FROM THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TO A
BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THE
BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL DISPLACE THE ACTIVE WEATHER TO OUR EAST...WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP ON TUESDAY AS ONE LAST SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. RECENT GUIDANCE HAS SPED UP
THE TIMING FOR THIS SHORTWAVE AND IT MAY END UP PASSING TOO EARLY IN
THE DAY TUESDAY FOR US TO SEE STORMS DEVELOP IN OUR CWA.

THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHILE ANOTHER
DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS
FROM THE PACIFIC. THE ECMWF NOW LAGS SLIGHTLY IN ITS TIMING COMPARED
WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS...BUT THERE IS GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE SLOWER
EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE RIDGE...IT NOW LOOKS LIKE ANY CONVECTION ON
THURSDAY MAY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS OF NM. CURRENTLY HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OUR WEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT IN CASE ANY STORMS
DO MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST. CHANCES SHIFT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...A LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS...AND BETTER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE PANHANDLES. STILL
THINKING THAT SATURDAY EVENING HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP...SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME SEVERE. DEPENDING ON THE
SYSTEM STRENGTH AND TIMING...THE DRYLINE LOOKS TO SETUP ACROSS THE
WESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY EVENING AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLES ON SATURDAY. MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 50 TO 70 KTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DRYLINE SATURDAY
NIGHT. STORMS ALSO POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE FAR EAST ON SUNDAY.

NF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                37  62  40  68  43 /  20   5   5  20   5
BEAVER OK                  36  65  38  71  43 /  60   5  10  10   5
BOISE CITY OK              33  59  36  67  39 /  60   5  10  20   5
BORGER TX                  39  64  41  69  46 /  30   5   5  20   5
BOYS RANCH TX              35  63  38  70  42 /  30   5   5  20   5
CANYON TX                  35  62  38  69  42 /  20   5   5  30   5
CLARENDON TX               40  64  41  70  45 /  20   5   5  20   5
DALHART TX                 34  61  36  69  40 /  40   5  10  20   5
GUYMON OK                  37  63  39  69  43 /  60   5  10  20   5
HEREFORD TX                35  63  38  70  42 /  20   5   5  30   5
LIPSCOMB TX                40  63  39  70  44 /  50   5   5  20   5
PAMPA TX                   38  61  40  68  44 /  30   5   5  20   5
SHAMROCK TX                42  65  40  71  46 /  30   5   5  20   5
WELLINGTON TX              43  66  41  72  47 /  20   5   5  20   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

15/6





000
FXUS64 KAMA 011718 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1218 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE COMMON AT THE DHT AND GUY TAF
SITES FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WITH RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH.
AMA WILL MOVE IN AND OUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL
NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD THERE. CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
INTO THE VFR RANGE AT AMA BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT
AT DHT AND GUY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DECREASE TOWARD SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO CIGS
AND WHICH TAF SITES MAY BE IMPACTED BY ANY LIGHT RAIN THAT DEVELOPS
TODAY. BASED ON PROJECTED PATH OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM...IT
APPEARS KDHT AND KGUY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND
ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END NEAR SUNSET THIS
EVENING.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST IS SPINNING OVER NORTHERN KANSAS
WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER ARIZONA.
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT QUITE FALLEN AS LOW AS EXPECTED JUST YET OVER
CIMARRON COUNTY WHERE THE FREEZE WARNING IS IN PLACE...BUT STILL
POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNRISE. AN AREA OF SHOWERS REMAINS ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES. COOL AIR MASS REMAINS AT
THE SURFACE - IN FACT, A RECORD LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORD OF
52 DEGREES COULD BE BROKEN AT AMARILLO TODAY. THIS SHALLOW LAYER OF
COLDER AIR COMBINED WITH THE ASCENT FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
LOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO FORM ACROSS THE AREA
AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL FORCING WILL
WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LOW DISSOLVES OVER NEW MEXICO AND HAVE ENDED MOST
POPS LATE TONIGHT AND A SHIFT TO PERHAPS SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE
EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOWEST LAYERS STILL LOOK FAIRLY
SATURATED. GUIDANCE AGAIN SUGGESTS NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES COULD
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST...BUT HAVE HELD OFF ON THE
FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS FOR NOW GIVEN THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS
MORNING`S EVENT.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE WEST, SETTING UP A
NORTHWEST FLOW SCENARIO FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. HAVE LIMITED PRECIP CHANCES TO MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THOUGH THIS COULD VARY WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TO THE EAST OR ANY MOUNTAIN
CONVECTION DEVELOPING UPSTREAM AND SLIPPING DOWN INTO THE
PANHANDLES. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES SOME AND THE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EASTWARD BY THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE YET...BUT DRYLINE FORMATION LOOKS LIKELY ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
WEATHER FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE AS FAVORABLE MOISTURE RETURN SETS UP
AND INSTABILITY/SHEAR INCREASES DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.

ELSENHEIMER

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                48  38  60  41  69 /  60  20   5   5  20
BEAVER OK                  50  37  61  37  70 /  60  40  10   5  10
BOISE CITY OK              42  33  58  36  66 /  70  30  10  10  20
BORGER TX                  49  41  62  43  71 /  60  20   5   5  20
BOYS RANCH TX              48  36  62  38  70 /  60  20   5   5  20
CANYON TX                  49  35  61  38  70 /  60  20   5   5  20
CLARENDON TX               55  40  62  42  71 /  50  20   5   5  10
DALHART TX                 46  35  60  37  67 /  70  30   5  10  20
GUYMON OK                  46  38  61  40  69 /  70  40  10  10  10
HEREFORD TX                50  35  61  38  69 /  70  20   5   5  20
LIPSCOMB TX                52  40  61  41  71 /  50  40  10   5  10
PAMPA TX                   50  39  60  41  69 /  50  20   5   5  10
SHAMROCK TX                57  42  63  43  72 /  40  30   5   5  10
WELLINGTON TX              59  43  64  42  73 /  30  30   5   5  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/6





000
FXUS64 KAMA 011718 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1218 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE COMMON AT THE DHT AND GUY TAF
SITES FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WITH RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH.
AMA WILL MOVE IN AND OUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL
NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD THERE. CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
INTO THE VFR RANGE AT AMA BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT
AT DHT AND GUY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DECREASE TOWARD SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO CIGS
AND WHICH TAF SITES MAY BE IMPACTED BY ANY LIGHT RAIN THAT DEVELOPS
TODAY. BASED ON PROJECTED PATH OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM...IT
APPEARS KDHT AND KGUY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND
ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END NEAR SUNSET THIS
EVENING.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST IS SPINNING OVER NORTHERN KANSAS
WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER ARIZONA.
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT QUITE FALLEN AS LOW AS EXPECTED JUST YET OVER
CIMARRON COUNTY WHERE THE FREEZE WARNING IS IN PLACE...BUT STILL
POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNRISE. AN AREA OF SHOWERS REMAINS ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES. COOL AIR MASS REMAINS AT
THE SURFACE - IN FACT, A RECORD LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORD OF
52 DEGREES COULD BE BROKEN AT AMARILLO TODAY. THIS SHALLOW LAYER OF
COLDER AIR COMBINED WITH THE ASCENT FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
LOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO FORM ACROSS THE AREA
AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL FORCING WILL
WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LOW DISSOLVES OVER NEW MEXICO AND HAVE ENDED MOST
POPS LATE TONIGHT AND A SHIFT TO PERHAPS SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE
EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOWEST LAYERS STILL LOOK FAIRLY
SATURATED. GUIDANCE AGAIN SUGGESTS NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES COULD
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST...BUT HAVE HELD OFF ON THE
FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS FOR NOW GIVEN THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS
MORNING`S EVENT.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE WEST, SETTING UP A
NORTHWEST FLOW SCENARIO FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. HAVE LIMITED PRECIP CHANCES TO MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THOUGH THIS COULD VARY WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TO THE EAST OR ANY MOUNTAIN
CONVECTION DEVELOPING UPSTREAM AND SLIPPING DOWN INTO THE
PANHANDLES. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES SOME AND THE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EASTWARD BY THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE YET...BUT DRYLINE FORMATION LOOKS LIKELY ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
WEATHER FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE AS FAVORABLE MOISTURE RETURN SETS UP
AND INSTABILITY/SHEAR INCREASES DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.

ELSENHEIMER

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                48  38  60  41  69 /  60  20   5   5  20
BEAVER OK                  50  37  61  37  70 /  60  40  10   5  10
BOISE CITY OK              42  33  58  36  66 /  70  30  10  10  20
BORGER TX                  49  41  62  43  71 /  60  20   5   5  20
BOYS RANCH TX              48  36  62  38  70 /  60  20   5   5  20
CANYON TX                  49  35  61  38  70 /  60  20   5   5  20
CLARENDON TX               55  40  62  42  71 /  50  20   5   5  10
DALHART TX                 46  35  60  37  67 /  70  30   5  10  20
GUYMON OK                  46  38  61  40  69 /  70  40  10  10  10
HEREFORD TX                50  35  61  38  69 /  70  20   5   5  20
LIPSCOMB TX                52  40  61  41  71 /  50  40  10   5  10
PAMPA TX                   50  39  60  41  69 /  50  20   5   5  10
SHAMROCK TX                57  42  63  43  72 /  40  30   5   5  10
WELLINGTON TX              59  43  64  42  73 /  30  30   5   5  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/6





000
FXUS64 KAMA 011156 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
656 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO CIGS
AND WHICH TAF SITES MAY BE IMPACTED BY ANY LIGHT RAIN THAT DEVELOPS
TODAY. BASED ON PROJECTED PATH OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM...IT
APPEARS KDHT AND KGUY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND
ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END NEAR SUNSET THIS
EVENING.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST IS SPINNING OVER NORTHERN KANSAS
WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER ARIZONA.
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT QUITE FALLEN AS LOW AS EXPECTED JUST YET OVER
CIMARRON COUNTY WHERE THE FREEZE WARNING IS IN PLACE...BUT STILL
POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNRISE. AN AREA OF SHOWERS REMAINS ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES. COOL AIR MASS REMAINS AT
THE SURFACE - IN FACT, A RECORD LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORD OF
52 DEGREES COULD BE BROKEN AT AMARILLO TODAY. THIS SHALLOW LAYER OF
COLDER AIR COMBINED WITH THE ASCENT FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
LOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO FORM ACROSS THE AREA
AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL FORCING WILL
WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LOW DISSOLVES OVER NEW MEXICO AND HAVE ENDED MOST
POPS LATE TONIGHT AND A SHIFT TO PERHAPS SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE
EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOWEST LAYERS STILL LOOK FAIRLY
SATURATED. GUIDANCE AGAIN SUGGESTS NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES COULD
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST...BUT HAVE HELD OFF ON THE
FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS FOR NOW GIVEN THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS
MORNING`S EVENT.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE WEST, SETTING UP A
NORTHWEST FLOW SCENARIO FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. HAVE LIMITED PRECIP CHANCES TO MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THOUGH THIS COULD VARY WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TO THE EAST OR ANY MOUNTAIN
CONVECTION DEVELOPING UPSTREAM AND SLIPPING DOWN INTO THE
PANHANDLES. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES SOME AND THE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EASTWARD BY THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE YET...BUT DRYLINE FORMATION LOOKS LIKELY ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
WEATHER FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE AS FAVORABLE MOISTURE RETURN SETS UP
AND INSTABILITY/SHEAR INCREASES DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.

ELSENHEIMER

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                48  38  60  41  69 /  60  20   5   5  20
BEAVER OK                  50  37  61  37  70 /  60  40  10   5  10
BOISE CITY OK              42  33  58  36  66 /  70  30  10  10  20
BORGER TX                  49  41  62  43  71 /  60  20   5   5  20
BOYS RANCH TX              48  36  62  38  70 /  60  20   5   5  20
CANYON TX                  49  35  61  38  70 /  60  20   5   5  20
CLARENDON TX               55  40  62  42  71 /  50  20   5   5  10
DALHART TX                 46  35  60  37  67 /  70  30   5  10  20
GUYMON OK                  46  38  61  40  69 /  70  40  10  10  10
HEREFORD TX                50  35  61  38  69 /  70  20   5   5  20
LIPSCOMB TX                52  40  61  41  71 /  50  40  10   5  10
PAMPA TX                   50  39  60  41  69 /  50  20   5   5  10
SHAMROCK TX                57  42  63  43  72 /  40  30   5   5  10
WELLINGTON TX              59  43  64  42  73 /  30  30   5   5  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KAMA 011156 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
656 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO CIGS
AND WHICH TAF SITES MAY BE IMPACTED BY ANY LIGHT RAIN THAT DEVELOPS
TODAY. BASED ON PROJECTED PATH OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM...IT
APPEARS KDHT AND KGUY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND
ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END NEAR SUNSET THIS
EVENING.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST IS SPINNING OVER NORTHERN KANSAS
WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER ARIZONA.
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT QUITE FALLEN AS LOW AS EXPECTED JUST YET OVER
CIMARRON COUNTY WHERE THE FREEZE WARNING IS IN PLACE...BUT STILL
POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNRISE. AN AREA OF SHOWERS REMAINS ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES. COOL AIR MASS REMAINS AT
THE SURFACE - IN FACT, A RECORD LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORD OF
52 DEGREES COULD BE BROKEN AT AMARILLO TODAY. THIS SHALLOW LAYER OF
COLDER AIR COMBINED WITH THE ASCENT FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
LOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO FORM ACROSS THE AREA
AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL FORCING WILL
WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LOW DISSOLVES OVER NEW MEXICO AND HAVE ENDED MOST
POPS LATE TONIGHT AND A SHIFT TO PERHAPS SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE
EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOWEST LAYERS STILL LOOK FAIRLY
SATURATED. GUIDANCE AGAIN SUGGESTS NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES COULD
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST...BUT HAVE HELD OFF ON THE
FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS FOR NOW GIVEN THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS
MORNING`S EVENT.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE WEST, SETTING UP A
NORTHWEST FLOW SCENARIO FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. HAVE LIMITED PRECIP CHANCES TO MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THOUGH THIS COULD VARY WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TO THE EAST OR ANY MOUNTAIN
CONVECTION DEVELOPING UPSTREAM AND SLIPPING DOWN INTO THE
PANHANDLES. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES SOME AND THE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EASTWARD BY THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE YET...BUT DRYLINE FORMATION LOOKS LIKELY ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
WEATHER FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE AS FAVORABLE MOISTURE RETURN SETS UP
AND INSTABILITY/SHEAR INCREASES DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.

ELSENHEIMER

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                48  38  60  41  69 /  60  20   5   5  20
BEAVER OK                  50  37  61  37  70 /  60  40  10   5  10
BOISE CITY OK              42  33  58  36  66 /  70  30  10  10  20
BORGER TX                  49  41  62  43  71 /  60  20   5   5  20
BOYS RANCH TX              48  36  62  38  70 /  60  20   5   5  20
CANYON TX                  49  35  61  38  70 /  60  20   5   5  20
CLARENDON TX               55  40  62  42  71 /  50  20   5   5  10
DALHART TX                 46  35  60  37  67 /  70  30   5  10  20
GUYMON OK                  46  38  61  40  69 /  70  40  10  10  10
HEREFORD TX                50  35  61  38  69 /  70  20   5   5  20
LIPSCOMB TX                52  40  61  41  71 /  50  40  10   5  10
PAMPA TX                   50  39  60  41  69 /  50  20   5   5  10
SHAMROCK TX                57  42  63  43  72 /  40  30   5   5  10
WELLINGTON TX              59  43  64  42  73 /  30  30   5   5  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$





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