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000
FXUS64 KAMA 201748 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1248 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN NM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST...ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS IT DOES SO...DAYTIME
HEATING COMBINED WITH LIFT PROVIDED BY THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY EVENING. ADEQUATE INSTABILITY
CAN SUPPORT A FEW STRONG STORMS BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE WX IS STILL NOT
ANTICIPATED. MEANWHILE WHILE THE POP ORIENTATION HAS BEEN PRETTY
MUCH UNCHANGED...HAVE GONE AND ADJUSTED SKY COVER AS STRATOCU DECK
HAS BEEN SLOW TO FILL IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE OK PANHANDLE AND THE
NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE. THIS HAS ALSO RESULTED IN TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THIS AREA...CLOSE TO THE PROJECTED HIGH
TEMPS FOR TODAY. HAVE GONE AND INCREASED TEMPS IN THIS AREA A COUPLE
OF DEGREES. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED.

CLK

&&

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/ SCT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN TX/OK
PANHANDLES AND WITH AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY SITTING OVER EASTERN
NM IN TANDEM WITH DAYTIME HEATING...STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE AND INSERTED VCTS AT ALL THREE
TERMINALS AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND IF ANY STORMS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PIN DOWN AS A PREVAILING GROUP.
TAFS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE UPDATED THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY PASSING STORM BUT EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR FOR THE MOST PART. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH BKN STRATOCU DECK
/VFR CIGS/ REMAINING OVERHEAD. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT CAUSING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO EVENTUALLY VEER TO THE NORTH
MONDAY MORNING.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 713 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

AVIATION...12Z TAFS

SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY TO AROUND 15 KTS THIS MORNING WHICH
SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG FORMATION. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT VCSH IN THE TAF AS THIS SEEMED
LIKE A GOOD REFLECTION OF OUR CONFIDENCE IN A SHOWER OR STORM. WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE NW LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

SIMPSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WELL IT APPEARS MOST OF THE PANHANDLES MISSED OUT ON SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL YESTERDAY AS LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE AREA BENEFITED THE MOST.
TODAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE FORECAST AREA TO SEE
BENEFICIAL RAINS BUT NOT UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

COMPLEX OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY WEST OF WICHITA FALLS CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THINK THIS COMPLEX HAS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. BUT AS A
REINFORCING SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING
THE PEAK DAYTIME HEATING HOURS BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING EAST OUT OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTY WINDS AND MAYBE SOME SMALL HAIL COULD DEVELOP
WITHIN A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER DEVELOPMENT REALLY LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF THE AREA.

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW MODELS
DEVELOP SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS BUT NOT TOO IMPRESSED TO KEEP
MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES FOR NOW. SKIES WILL CLEAR SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. UPPER RIDGE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY ALLOWING DRY CONDITIONS
AND HIGHS TO REACH NEAR 80 DEGREES.

THE FIRST REAL POTENTIAL OF A DRYLINE/THUNDERSTORM SET UP LOOKS
FAIRLY GOOD FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WEST OF THE DRYLINE...VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE EXPECTED. EAST OF
THE DRYLINE...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
FIRING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. THE ECMWF APPEARS
TO BE SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST THAN THE GFS...BUT DEFINITELY THINK THERE
WOULD BE ENOUGH TIME FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER TO DEVELOP BEFORE
THE STORMS MARCH OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AND INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
AT THIS POINT...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD BUT MOSTLY DAMAGING
WINDS. IT IS AT LEAST SOMETHING TO WATCH WITH US FIRMLY BEING IN
SEVERE WEATHER SEASON.

BY THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DRYLINE MOVE WELL EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
THE STORY. FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING OVER THE AREA WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 80S ONCE AGAIN.

FOR NEXT WEEKEND...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO SET UP AS A
VERY IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AT THIS POINT...QUITE A FEW MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH THE ECMWF
AND GFS SOLUTIONS...BUT IT STILL DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS FOR THE PANHANDLES AT THIS TIME OTHER THAN VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT AS THE CASE
HAS BEEN ALL TOO FREQUENTLY FOR THE PANHANDLES...MOST OF THE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO REMAIN EAST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. BUT AT LEAST THE PATTERN IS GETTING MORE ACTIVE AS WE HEAD INTO
MAY WITH HOPES FOR SOME DROUGHT RELIEF.

KNS

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.  CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES.

KNS

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

05/03







000
FXUS64 KAMA 201748 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1248 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN NM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST...ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS IT DOES SO...DAYTIME
HEATING COMBINED WITH LIFT PROVIDED BY THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY EVENING. ADEQUATE INSTABILITY
CAN SUPPORT A FEW STRONG STORMS BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE WX IS STILL NOT
ANTICIPATED. MEANWHILE WHILE THE POP ORIENTATION HAS BEEN PRETTY
MUCH UNCHANGED...HAVE GONE AND ADJUSTED SKY COVER AS STRATOCU DECK
HAS BEEN SLOW TO FILL IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE OK PANHANDLE AND THE
NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE. THIS HAS ALSO RESULTED IN TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THIS AREA...CLOSE TO THE PROJECTED HIGH
TEMPS FOR TODAY. HAVE GONE AND INCREASED TEMPS IN THIS AREA A COUPLE
OF DEGREES. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED.

CLK

&&

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/ SCT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN TX/OK
PANHANDLES AND WITH AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY SITTING OVER EASTERN
NM IN TANDEM WITH DAYTIME HEATING...STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE AND INSERTED VCTS AT ALL THREE
TERMINALS AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND IF ANY STORMS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PIN DOWN AS A PREVAILING GROUP.
TAFS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE UPDATED THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY PASSING STORM BUT EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR FOR THE MOST PART. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH BKN STRATOCU DECK
/VFR CIGS/ REMAINING OVERHEAD. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT CAUSING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO EVENTUALLY VEER TO THE NORTH
MONDAY MORNING.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 713 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

AVIATION...12Z TAFS

SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY TO AROUND 15 KTS THIS MORNING WHICH
SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG FORMATION. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT VCSH IN THE TAF AS THIS SEEMED
LIKE A GOOD REFLECTION OF OUR CONFIDENCE IN A SHOWER OR STORM. WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE NW LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

SIMPSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WELL IT APPEARS MOST OF THE PANHANDLES MISSED OUT ON SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL YESTERDAY AS LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE AREA BENEFITED THE MOST.
TODAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE FORECAST AREA TO SEE
BENEFICIAL RAINS BUT NOT UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

COMPLEX OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY WEST OF WICHITA FALLS CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THINK THIS COMPLEX HAS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. BUT AS A
REINFORCING SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING
THE PEAK DAYTIME HEATING HOURS BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING EAST OUT OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTY WINDS AND MAYBE SOME SMALL HAIL COULD DEVELOP
WITHIN A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER DEVELOPMENT REALLY LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF THE AREA.

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW MODELS
DEVELOP SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS BUT NOT TOO IMPRESSED TO KEEP
MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES FOR NOW. SKIES WILL CLEAR SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. UPPER RIDGE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY ALLOWING DRY CONDITIONS
AND HIGHS TO REACH NEAR 80 DEGREES.

THE FIRST REAL POTENTIAL OF A DRYLINE/THUNDERSTORM SET UP LOOKS
FAIRLY GOOD FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WEST OF THE DRYLINE...VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE EXPECTED. EAST OF
THE DRYLINE...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
FIRING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. THE ECMWF APPEARS
TO BE SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST THAN THE GFS...BUT DEFINITELY THINK THERE
WOULD BE ENOUGH TIME FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER TO DEVELOP BEFORE
THE STORMS MARCH OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AND INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
AT THIS POINT...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD BUT MOSTLY DAMAGING
WINDS. IT IS AT LEAST SOMETHING TO WATCH WITH US FIRMLY BEING IN
SEVERE WEATHER SEASON.

BY THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DRYLINE MOVE WELL EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
THE STORY. FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING OVER THE AREA WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 80S ONCE AGAIN.

FOR NEXT WEEKEND...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO SET UP AS A
VERY IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AT THIS POINT...QUITE A FEW MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH THE ECMWF
AND GFS SOLUTIONS...BUT IT STILL DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS FOR THE PANHANDLES AT THIS TIME OTHER THAN VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT AS THE CASE
HAS BEEN ALL TOO FREQUENTLY FOR THE PANHANDLES...MOST OF THE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO REMAIN EAST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. BUT AT LEAST THE PATTERN IS GETTING MORE ACTIVE AS WE HEAD INTO
MAY WITH HOPES FOR SOME DROUGHT RELIEF.

KNS

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.  CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES.

KNS

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

05/03






000
FXUS64 KAMA 201213
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
713 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS

SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY TO AROUND 15 KTS THIS MORNING WHICH
SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG FORMATION. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT VCSH IN THE TAF AS THIS SEEMED
LIKE A GOOD REFLECTION OF OUR CONFIDENCE IN A SHOWER OR STORM. WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE NW LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

SIMPSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WELL IT APPEARS MOST OF THE PANHANDLES MISSED OUT ON SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL YESTERDAY AS LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE AREA BENEFITED THE MOST.
TODAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE FORECAST AREA TO SEE
BENEFICIAL RAINS BUT NOT UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

COMPLEX OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY WEST OF WICHITA FALLS CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THINK THIS COMPLEX HAS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. BUT AS A
REINFORCING SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING
THE PEAK DAYTIME HEATING HOURS BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING EAST OUT OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTY WINDS AND MAYBE SOME SMALL HAIL COULD DEVELOP
WITHIN A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER DEVELOPMENT REALLY LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF THE AREA.

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW MODELS
DEVELOP SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS BUT NOT TOO IMPRESSED TO KEEP
MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES FOR NOW. SKIES WILL CLEAR SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. UPPER RIDGE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY ALLOWING DRY CONDITIONS
AND HIGHS TO REACH NEAR 80 DEGREES.

THE FIRST REAL POTENTIAL OF A DRYLINE/THUNDERSTORM SET UP LOOKS
FAIRLY GOOD FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WEST OF THE DRYLINE...VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE EXPECTED. EAST OF
THE DRYLINE...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
FIRING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. THE ECMWF APPEARS
TO BE SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST THAN THE GFS...BUT DEFINITELY THINK THERE
WOULD BE ENOUGH TIME FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER TO DEVELOP BEFORE
THE STORMS MARCH OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AND INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
AT THIS POINT...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD BUT MOSTLY DAMAGING
WINDS. IT IS AT LEAST SOMETHING TO WATCH WITH US FIRMLY BEING IN
SEVERE WEATHER SEASON.

BY THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DRYLINE MOVE WELL EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
THE STORY. FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING OVER THE AREA WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 80S ONCE AGAIN.

FOR NEXT WEEKEND...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO SET UP AS A
VERY IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AT THIS POINT...QUITE A FEW MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH THE ECMWF
AND GFS SOLUTIONS...BUT IT STILL DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS FOR THE PANHANDLES AT THIS TIME OTHER THAN VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT AS THE CASE
HAS BEEN ALL TOO FREQUENTLY FOR THE PANHANDLES...MOST OF THE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO REMAIN EAST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. BUT AT LEAST THE PATTERN IS GETTING MORE ACTIVE AS WE HEAD INTO
MAY WITH HOPES FOR SOME DROUGHT RELIEF.

KNS

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.  CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES.

KNS

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

09/99






000
FXUS64 KAMA 201213
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
713 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS

SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY TO AROUND 15 KTS THIS MORNING WHICH
SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG FORMATION. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT VCSH IN THE TAF AS THIS SEEMED
LIKE A GOOD REFLECTION OF OUR CONFIDENCE IN A SHOWER OR STORM. WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE NW LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

SIMPSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WELL IT APPEARS MOST OF THE PANHANDLES MISSED OUT ON SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL YESTERDAY AS LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE AREA BENEFITED THE MOST.
TODAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE FORECAST AREA TO SEE
BENEFICIAL RAINS BUT NOT UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

COMPLEX OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY WEST OF WICHITA FALLS CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THINK THIS COMPLEX HAS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. BUT AS A
REINFORCING SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING
THE PEAK DAYTIME HEATING HOURS BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING EAST OUT OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTY WINDS AND MAYBE SOME SMALL HAIL COULD DEVELOP
WITHIN A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER DEVELOPMENT REALLY LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF THE AREA.

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW MODELS
DEVELOP SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS BUT NOT TOO IMPRESSED TO KEEP
MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES FOR NOW. SKIES WILL CLEAR SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. UPPER RIDGE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY ALLOWING DRY CONDITIONS
AND HIGHS TO REACH NEAR 80 DEGREES.

THE FIRST REAL POTENTIAL OF A DRYLINE/THUNDERSTORM SET UP LOOKS
FAIRLY GOOD FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WEST OF THE DRYLINE...VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE EXPECTED. EAST OF
THE DRYLINE...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
FIRING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. THE ECMWF APPEARS
TO BE SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST THAN THE GFS...BUT DEFINITELY THINK THERE
WOULD BE ENOUGH TIME FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER TO DEVELOP BEFORE
THE STORMS MARCH OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AND INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
AT THIS POINT...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD BUT MOSTLY DAMAGING
WINDS. IT IS AT LEAST SOMETHING TO WATCH WITH US FIRMLY BEING IN
SEVERE WEATHER SEASON.

BY THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DRYLINE MOVE WELL EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
THE STORY. FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING OVER THE AREA WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 80S ONCE AGAIN.

FOR NEXT WEEKEND...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO SET UP AS A
VERY IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AT THIS POINT...QUITE A FEW MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH THE ECMWF
AND GFS SOLUTIONS...BUT IT STILL DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS FOR THE PANHANDLES AT THIS TIME OTHER THAN VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT AS THE CASE
HAS BEEN ALL TOO FREQUENTLY FOR THE PANHANDLES...MOST OF THE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO REMAIN EAST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. BUT AT LEAST THE PATTERN IS GETTING MORE ACTIVE AS WE HEAD INTO
MAY WITH HOPES FOR SOME DROUGHT RELIEF.

KNS

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.  CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES.

KNS

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

09/99







000
FXUS64 KAMA 200907
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
407 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WELL IT APPEARS MOST OF THE PANHANDLES MISSED OUT ON SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL YESTERDAY AS LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE AREA BENEFITED THE MOST.
TODAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE FORECAST AREA TO SEE
BENEFICIAL RAINS BUT NOT UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

COMPLEX OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY WEST OF WICHITA FALLS CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THINK THIS COMPLEX HAS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. BUT AS A
REINFORCING SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING
THE PEAK DAYTIME HEATING HOURS BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING EAST OUT OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTY WINDS AND MAYBE SOME SMALL HAIL COULD DEVELOP
WITHIN A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER DEVELOPMENT REALLY LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF THE AREA.

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW MODELS
DEVELOP SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS BUT NOT TOO IMPRESSED TO KEEP
MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES FOR NOW. SKIES WILL CLEAR SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. UPPER RIDGE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY ALLOWING DRY CONDITIONS
AND HIGHS TO REACH NEAR 80 DEGREES.

THE FIRST REAL POTENTIAL OF A DRYLINE/THUNDERSTORM SET UP LOOKS
FAIRLY GOOD FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WEST OF THE DRYLINE...VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE EXPECTED. EAST OF
THE DRYLINE...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
FIRING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. THE ECMWF APPEARS
TO BE SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST THAN THE GFS...BUT DEFINITELY THINK THERE
WOULD BE ENOUGH TIME FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER TO DEVELOP BEFORE
THE STORMS MARCH OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AND INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
AT THIS POINT...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD BUT MOSTLY DAMAGING
WINDS. IT IS AT LEAST SOMETHING TO WATCH WITH US FIRMLY BEING IN
SEVERE WEATHER SEASON.

BY THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DRYLINE MOVE WELL EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
THE STORY. FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING OVER THE AREA WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 80S ONCE AGAIN.

FOR NEXT WEEKEND...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO SET UP AS A
VERY IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AT THIS POINT...QUITE A FEW MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH THE ECMWF
AND GFS SOLUTIONS...BUT IT STILL DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS FOR THE PANHANDLES AT THIS TIME OTHER THAN VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT AS THE CASE
HAS BEEN ALL TOO FREQUENTLY FOR THE PANHANDLES...MOST OF THE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO REMAIN EAST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. BUT AT LEAST THE PATTERN IS GETTING MORE ACTIVE AS WE HEAD INTO
MAY WITH HOPES FOR SOME DROUGHT RELIEF.

KNS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.  CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES.

KNS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                74  52  78  52  80 /  40  20   5   0   0
BEAVER OK                  76  54  79  49  82 /  50  40   5   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              73  50  74  50  82 /  40  20   5   0   5
BORGER TX                  76  55  79  56  81 /  40  30   5   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              76  52  80  53  84 /  40  20   5   0   0
CANYON TX                  76  50  79  50  81 /  30  20   5   0   0
CLARENDON TX               76  57  78  54  79 /  40  30   5   0   0
DALHART TX                 74  48  75  48  81 /  40  20   5   0   5
GUYMON OK                  76  52  77  51  81 /  50  40   5   0   5
HEREFORD TX                73  51  78  50  80 /  30  20   5   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                75  56  78  50  80 /  50  40   5   0   0
PAMPA TX                   73  54  77  51  78 /  40  30   5   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                75  56  79  52  81 /  40  30   5   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              77  56  80  54  81 /  40  30   5   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KAMA 200907
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
407 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WELL IT APPEARS MOST OF THE PANHANDLES MISSED OUT ON SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL YESTERDAY AS LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE AREA BENEFITED THE MOST.
TODAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE FORECAST AREA TO SEE
BENEFICIAL RAINS BUT NOT UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

COMPLEX OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY WEST OF WICHITA FALLS CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THINK THIS COMPLEX HAS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. BUT AS A
REINFORCING SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING
THE PEAK DAYTIME HEATING HOURS BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING EAST OUT OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTY WINDS AND MAYBE SOME SMALL HAIL COULD DEVELOP
WITHIN A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER DEVELOPMENT REALLY LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF THE AREA.

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW MODELS
DEVELOP SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS BUT NOT TOO IMPRESSED TO KEEP
MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES FOR NOW. SKIES WILL CLEAR SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. UPPER RIDGE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY ALLOWING DRY CONDITIONS
AND HIGHS TO REACH NEAR 80 DEGREES.

THE FIRST REAL POTENTIAL OF A DRYLINE/THUNDERSTORM SET UP LOOKS
FAIRLY GOOD FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WEST OF THE DRYLINE...VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE EXPECTED. EAST OF
THE DRYLINE...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
FIRING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. THE ECMWF APPEARS
TO BE SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST THAN THE GFS...BUT DEFINITELY THINK THERE
WOULD BE ENOUGH TIME FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER TO DEVELOP BEFORE
THE STORMS MARCH OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AND INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
AT THIS POINT...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD BUT MOSTLY DAMAGING
WINDS. IT IS AT LEAST SOMETHING TO WATCH WITH US FIRMLY BEING IN
SEVERE WEATHER SEASON.

BY THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DRYLINE MOVE WELL EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
THE STORY. FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING OVER THE AREA WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 80S ONCE AGAIN.

FOR NEXT WEEKEND...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO SET UP AS A
VERY IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AT THIS POINT...QUITE A FEW MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH THE ECMWF
AND GFS SOLUTIONS...BUT IT STILL DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS FOR THE PANHANDLES AT THIS TIME OTHER THAN VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT AS THE CASE
HAS BEEN ALL TOO FREQUENTLY FOR THE PANHANDLES...MOST OF THE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO REMAIN EAST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. BUT AT LEAST THE PATTERN IS GETTING MORE ACTIVE AS WE HEAD INTO
MAY WITH HOPES FOR SOME DROUGHT RELIEF.

KNS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.  CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES.

KNS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                74  52  78  52  80 /  40  20   5   0   0
BEAVER OK                  76  54  79  49  82 /  50  40   5   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              73  50  74  50  82 /  40  20   5   0   5
BORGER TX                  76  55  79  56  81 /  40  30   5   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              76  52  80  53  84 /  40  20   5   0   0
CANYON TX                  76  50  79  50  81 /  30  20   5   0   0
CLARENDON TX               76  57  78  54  79 /  40  30   5   0   0
DALHART TX                 74  48  75  48  81 /  40  20   5   0   5
GUYMON OK                  76  52  77  51  81 /  50  40   5   0   5
HEREFORD TX                73  51  78  50  80 /  30  20   5   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                75  56  78  50  80 /  50  40   5   0   0
PAMPA TX                   73  54  77  51  78 /  40  30   5   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                75  56  79  52  81 /  40  30   5   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              77  56  80  54  81 /  40  30   5   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KAMA 200352
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1052 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER BELIEVE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THIS WILL BE EAST
OF THE TERMINALS SO WILL OMIT ANY MENTION FROM THE TAFS. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
DAYTIME HEATING COMBINES WITH A PASSING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO
DESTABILIZE THINGS. THESE HIGHER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS SUNDAY. OUTSIDE OF ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BEFORE A
WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS THROUGH KDHT AND KGUY SUNDAY EVENING...TURNING
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEEN ON RADAR AT THIS TIME
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING.  HAVE INCREASED POPS ALONG A
CORRIDOR FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS IN
REGION WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

SUNDAY MORNING POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT...BUT HAVE TRIMMED SAME IN CENTRAL
SECTIONS...WHERE UPPER- AND LOWER-LEVEL FORCING ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WEAK.  CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN RETAINED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SHARP MID-
LEVEL TROF SHOULD GENERATE ASCENT.

HAVE REALIGNED SUNDAY EVENING POPS...NOW WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF EXPECTED VORTICITY MAXIMUM
IN REGION OF RICHER MOISTURE.  HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT IN EASTERN SECTIONS...WHERE EXPECTED FINAL
VORTICITY MAXIMUM ENCOUNTERS 850 MB COLD FRONT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING HAVE BEEN KEPT DRY.  INHERITED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON POPS IN FAR EASTERN PART OF FORECAST AREA HAVE
BEEN EXPANDED WESTWARD...WHERE MOISTURE AHEAD OF DRYLINE EXPECTED TO
BE POSITIONED.   HAVE LIKEWISE INTRODUCED POPS IN EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  REMAINING PERIODS HAVE BEEN LEFT DRY.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.  CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES...AND ON
THURSDAY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/11






000
FXUS64 KAMA 192340
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
640 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH A PASSING SHOWER...HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS APPEAR MORE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE EVEN IN THE SHOWERS AND HAVE REFLECTED THIS IN THE
TAFS. EXPECT MUCH OF THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR LINGERING CONVECTION
REMAINING EAST OF THE TERMINALS IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONGER FORCING
FROM A LEAD UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THUS WILL OMIT ANY PRECIP
MENTION FROM THE TAFS OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER CERTAINLY CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH THE BROADER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING COMBINES WITH THE PASSING UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH TO DESTABILIZE THINGS. OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR
STORMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. A COLD FRONT WILL
BE NEARING KDHT AND KGUY TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...BRINGING
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEEN ON RADAR AT THIS TIME
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING.  HAVE INCREASED POPS ALONG A
CORRIDOR FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS IN
REGION WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

SUNDAY MORNING POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT...BUT HAVE TRIMMED SAME IN CENTRAL
SECTIONS...WHERE UPPER- AND LOWER-LEVEL FORCING ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WEAK.  CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN RETAINED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SHARP MID-
LEVEL TROF SHOULD GENERATE ASCENT.

HAVE REALIGNED SUNDAY EVENING POPS...NOW WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF EXPECTED VORTICITY MAXIMUM
IN REGION OF RICHER MOISTURE.  HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT IN EASTERN SECTIONS...WHERE EXPECTED FINAL
VORTICITY MAXIMUM ENCOUNTERS 850 MB COLD FRONT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING HAVE BEEN KEPT DRY.  INHERITED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON POPS IN FAR EASTERN PART OF FORECAST AREA HAVE
BEEN EXPANDED WESTWARD...WHERE MOISTURE AHEAD OF DRYLINE EXPECTED TO
BE POSITIONED.   HAVE LIKEWISE INTRODUCED POPS IN EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  REMAINING PERIODS HAVE BEEN LEFT DRY.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.  CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES...AND ON
THURSDAY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/11







000
FXUS64 KAMA 192340
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
640 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH A PASSING SHOWER...HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS APPEAR MORE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE EVEN IN THE SHOWERS AND HAVE REFLECTED THIS IN THE
TAFS. EXPECT MUCH OF THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR LINGERING CONVECTION
REMAINING EAST OF THE TERMINALS IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONGER FORCING
FROM A LEAD UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THUS WILL OMIT ANY PRECIP
MENTION FROM THE TAFS OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER CERTAINLY CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH THE BROADER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING COMBINES WITH THE PASSING UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH TO DESTABILIZE THINGS. OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR
STORMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. A COLD FRONT WILL
BE NEARING KDHT AND KGUY TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...BRINGING
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEEN ON RADAR AT THIS TIME
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING.  HAVE INCREASED POPS ALONG A
CORRIDOR FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS IN
REGION WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

SUNDAY MORNING POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT...BUT HAVE TRIMMED SAME IN CENTRAL
SECTIONS...WHERE UPPER- AND LOWER-LEVEL FORCING ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WEAK.  CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN RETAINED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SHARP MID-
LEVEL TROF SHOULD GENERATE ASCENT.

HAVE REALIGNED SUNDAY EVENING POPS...NOW WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF EXPECTED VORTICITY MAXIMUM
IN REGION OF RICHER MOISTURE.  HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT IN EASTERN SECTIONS...WHERE EXPECTED FINAL
VORTICITY MAXIMUM ENCOUNTERS 850 MB COLD FRONT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING HAVE BEEN KEPT DRY.  INHERITED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON POPS IN FAR EASTERN PART OF FORECAST AREA HAVE
BEEN EXPANDED WESTWARD...WHERE MOISTURE AHEAD OF DRYLINE EXPECTED TO
BE POSITIONED.   HAVE LIKEWISE INTRODUCED POPS IN EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  REMAINING PERIODS HAVE BEEN LEFT DRY.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.  CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES...AND ON
THURSDAY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/11






000
FXUS64 KAMA 192039
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
335 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEEN ON RADAR AT THIS TIME
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING.  HAVE INCREASED POPS ALONG A
CORRIDOR FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS IN
REGION WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

SUNDAY MORNING POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT...BUT HAVE TRIMMED SAME IN CENTRAL
SECTIONS...WHERE UPPER- AND LOWER-LEVEL FORCING ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WEAK.  CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN RETAINED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SHARP MID-
LEVEL TROF SHOULD GENERATE ASCENT.

HAVE REALIGNED SUNDAY EVENING POPS...NOW WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF EXPECTED VORTICITY MAXIMUM
IN REGION OF RICHER MOISTURE.  HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT IN EASTERN SECTIONS...WHERE EXPECTED FINAL
VORTICITY MAXIMUM ENCOUNTERS 850 MB COLD FRONT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING HAVE BEEN KEPT DRY.  INHERITED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON POPS IN FAR EASTERN PART OF FORECAST AREA HAVE
BEEN EXPANDED WESTWARD...WHERE MOISTURE AHEAD OF DRYLINE EXPECTED TO
BE POSITIONED.   HAVE LIKEWISE INTRODUCED POPS IN EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  REMAINING PERIODS HAVE BEEN LEFT DRY.  03

COCKRELL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.  CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES...AND ON
THURSDAY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES.  03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                52  74  53  76  49 /  40  40  40   5   0
BEAVER OK                  55  77  53  79  47 /  40  50  40   5   0
BOISE CITY OK              50  71  50  72  48 /  30  50  10   5   0
BORGER TX                  58  75  56  80  53 /  40  40  40   5   0
BOYS RANCH TX              52  78  52  79  50 /  40  40  10   5   0
CANYON TX                  50  75  52  77  48 /  40  40  20   5   0
CLARENDON TX               54  75  56  78  52 /  30  40  50   5   0
DALHART TX                 49  73  46  74  47 /  30  40  10   5   0
GUYMON OK                  53  75  52  77  48 /  30  50  10   5   0
HEREFORD TX                49  75  50  76  47 /  40  40  10   5   0
LIPSCOMB TX                55  78  55  78  48 /  40  50  50   5   0
PAMPA TX                   54  75  53  76  51 /  40  50  50   5   0
SHAMROCK TX                55  78  58  80  51 /  30  50  50   5   0
WELLINGTON TX              57  79  58  81  53 /  30  50  50   5   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

10/03






000
FXUS64 KAMA 192039
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
335 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEEN ON RADAR AT THIS TIME
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING.  HAVE INCREASED POPS ALONG A
CORRIDOR FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS IN
REGION WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

SUNDAY MORNING POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT...BUT HAVE TRIMMED SAME IN CENTRAL
SECTIONS...WHERE UPPER- AND LOWER-LEVEL FORCING ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WEAK.  CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN RETAINED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SHARP MID-
LEVEL TROF SHOULD GENERATE ASCENT.

HAVE REALIGNED SUNDAY EVENING POPS...NOW WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF EXPECTED VORTICITY MAXIMUM
IN REGION OF RICHER MOISTURE.  HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT IN EASTERN SECTIONS...WHERE EXPECTED FINAL
VORTICITY MAXIMUM ENCOUNTERS 850 MB COLD FRONT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING HAVE BEEN KEPT DRY.  INHERITED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON POPS IN FAR EASTERN PART OF FORECAST AREA HAVE
BEEN EXPANDED WESTWARD...WHERE MOISTURE AHEAD OF DRYLINE EXPECTED TO
BE POSITIONED.   HAVE LIKEWISE INTRODUCED POPS IN EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  REMAINING PERIODS HAVE BEEN LEFT DRY.  03

COCKRELL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.  CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES...AND ON
THURSDAY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES.  03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                52  74  53  76  49 /  40  40  40   5   0
BEAVER OK                  55  77  53  79  47 /  40  50  40   5   0
BOISE CITY OK              50  71  50  72  48 /  30  50  10   5   0
BORGER TX                  58  75  56  80  53 /  40  40  40   5   0
BOYS RANCH TX              52  78  52  79  50 /  40  40  10   5   0
CANYON TX                  50  75  52  77  48 /  40  40  20   5   0
CLARENDON TX               54  75  56  78  52 /  30  40  50   5   0
DALHART TX                 49  73  46  74  47 /  30  40  10   5   0
GUYMON OK                  53  75  52  77  48 /  30  50  10   5   0
HEREFORD TX                49  75  50  76  47 /  40  40  10   5   0
LIPSCOMB TX                55  78  55  78  48 /  40  50  50   5   0
PAMPA TX                   54  75  53  76  51 /  40  50  50   5   0
SHAMROCK TX                55  78  58  80  51 /  30  50  50   5   0
WELLINGTON TX              57  79  58  81  53 /  30  50  50   5   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

10/03





000
FXUS64 KAMA 191753
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1253 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL AT KDHT...KGUY...AND
KAMA. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE LOW PROBABILITIES FOR VIS/CIG
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
DURING THE 21-04 TIMEFRAME...ESPECIALLY NEAR KAMA. HAVE INTRODUCED
THUNDERSTORMS IN VICINITY OF KAMA...BUT HAVE NOT YET INDICATED A
REDUCTION TO MVFR. OTHERWISE...EXPECTED INTERMITTENT CLOUDS AOA 8-10
KFT AND BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1053 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE 18-00Z POP/WX GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS THAT
SUGGEST SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON.

CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ORGANIZING SHIELD OF
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO. THIS APPEARS WELL HANDLED BY THE TTU-WRF...AND IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A PRONOUNCED LOBE OF FORCING DEPICTED IN VAPOR IMAGERY. HIGH RES
MODELS...INCLUDING THE TTU-WRF...ADVECT THIS ACTIVITY NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN...WESTERN...AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE
DURING THE 20-23Z TIMEFRAME. THUS...HAVE INCREASED GRIDDED POPS
TOWARD 50 PERCENT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE AND CHANCED WORDING
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.

LINDLEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A NICE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT FOLKS AROUND HERE WOULD NOT MIND FINDING SOME
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION INSTEAD OF EASTER EGGS THIS WEEKEND.

BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BRINGING IN MOISTURE IS DEFINITELY EVIDENT
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EARLY MORNING. WITH MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE...HALF THE BATTLE IN GETTING PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP IS
ALREADY WON. UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY. THE BEST FORCING WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL SUNDAY...BUT IN THE MEANTIME...SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE LATER TODAY. DO THINK PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT IN ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL AND WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE
SW AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY...THINK PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS STILL LINGERING AROUND.

FOR SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DEFINITELY INCREASE ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. AT THIS POINT...THINK ANY SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. STILL NOT CONFIDENT THAT EVERYONE WILL SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES LOOK BETTER WITH
EACH MODEL RUN.

LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES WELL EAST. FOR MONDAY...SKIES WILL
BEGIN CLEARING AS AN UPPER RIDGE FIRMLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION. WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. EVEN THOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS WELL OFF TO THE NORTH...MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE DEVELOPING SOME STORMS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT TOO CONFIDENT THAT
THIS WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR SINCE THE BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN SO FAR NORTH
BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH. BY THURSDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL UPPER FORCING TO THE AREA BUT THINK IT WILL BE TOO FAR
EAST SO ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SO HAVE LEFT THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW. A WARM
AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

KNS

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DECREASE BY THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.

KNS

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

10







000
FXUS64 KAMA 191753
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1253 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL AT KDHT...KGUY...AND
KAMA. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE LOW PROBABILITIES FOR VIS/CIG
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
DURING THE 21-04 TIMEFRAME...ESPECIALLY NEAR KAMA. HAVE INTRODUCED
THUNDERSTORMS IN VICINITY OF KAMA...BUT HAVE NOT YET INDICATED A
REDUCTION TO MVFR. OTHERWISE...EXPECTED INTERMITTENT CLOUDS AOA 8-10
KFT AND BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1053 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE 18-00Z POP/WX GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS THAT
SUGGEST SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON.

CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ORGANIZING SHIELD OF
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO. THIS APPEARS WELL HANDLED BY THE TTU-WRF...AND IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A PRONOUNCED LOBE OF FORCING DEPICTED IN VAPOR IMAGERY. HIGH RES
MODELS...INCLUDING THE TTU-WRF...ADVECT THIS ACTIVITY NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN...WESTERN...AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE
DURING THE 20-23Z TIMEFRAME. THUS...HAVE INCREASED GRIDDED POPS
TOWARD 50 PERCENT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE AND CHANCED WORDING
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.

LINDLEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A NICE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT FOLKS AROUND HERE WOULD NOT MIND FINDING SOME
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION INSTEAD OF EASTER EGGS THIS WEEKEND.

BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BRINGING IN MOISTURE IS DEFINITELY EVIDENT
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EARLY MORNING. WITH MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE...HALF THE BATTLE IN GETTING PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP IS
ALREADY WON. UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY. THE BEST FORCING WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL SUNDAY...BUT IN THE MEANTIME...SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE LATER TODAY. DO THINK PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT IN ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL AND WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE
SW AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY...THINK PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS STILL LINGERING AROUND.

FOR SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DEFINITELY INCREASE ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. AT THIS POINT...THINK ANY SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. STILL NOT CONFIDENT THAT EVERYONE WILL SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES LOOK BETTER WITH
EACH MODEL RUN.

LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES WELL EAST. FOR MONDAY...SKIES WILL
BEGIN CLEARING AS AN UPPER RIDGE FIRMLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION. WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. EVEN THOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS WELL OFF TO THE NORTH...MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE DEVELOPING SOME STORMS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT TOO CONFIDENT THAT
THIS WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR SINCE THE BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN SO FAR NORTH
BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH. BY THURSDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL UPPER FORCING TO THE AREA BUT THINK IT WILL BE TOO FAR
EAST SO ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SO HAVE LEFT THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW. A WARM
AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

KNS

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DECREASE BY THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.

KNS

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

10






000
FXUS64 KAMA 191553 CCA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1053 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE 18-00Z POP/WX GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS THAT
SUGGEST SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON.

CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ORGANIZING SHIELD OF
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO. THIS APPEARS WELL HANDLED BY THE TTU-WRF...AND IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A PRONOUNCED LOBE OF FORCING DEPICTED IN VAPOR IMAGERY. HIGH RES
MODELS...INCLUDING THE TTU-WRF...ADVECT THIS ACTIVITY NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN...WESTERN...AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE
DURING THE 20-23Z TIMEFRAME. THUS...HAVE INCREASED GRIDDED POPS
TOWARD 50 PERCENT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE AND CHANCED WORDING
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.

LINDLEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

AVIATION...12Z TAFS

WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SSW DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY. A
FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL THREE SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE BEST CHANCES ARE PROBABLY AT KAMA OR KDHT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCSH BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO
PREVAILING -SHRA OR -TSRA THOUGH CERTAINLY COULD SEE THAT BEING ADDED
IN LATER ISSUANCES.

SIMPSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A NICE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT FOLKS AROUND HERE WOULD NOT MIND FINDING SOME
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION INSTEAD OF EASTER EGGS THIS WEEKEND.

BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BRINGING IN MOISTURE IS DEFINITELY EVIDENT
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EARLY MORNING. WITH MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE...HALF THE BATTLE IN GETTING PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP IS
ALREADY WON. UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY. THE BEST FORCING WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL SUNDAY...BUT IN THE MEANTIME...SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE LATER TODAY. DO THINK PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT IN ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL AND WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE
SW AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY...THINK PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS STILL LINGERING AROUND.

FOR SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DEFINITELY INCREASE ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. AT THIS POINT...THINK ANY SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. STILL NOT CONFIDENT THAT EVERYONE WILL SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES LOOK BETTER WITH
EACH MODEL RUN.

LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES WELL EAST. FOR MONDAY...SKIES WILL
BEGIN CLEARING AS AN UPPER RIDGE FIRMLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION. WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. EVEN THOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS WELL OFF TO THE NORTH...MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE DEVELOPING SOME STORMS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT TOO CONFIDENT THAT
THIS WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR SINCE THE BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN SO FAR NORTH
BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH. BY THURSDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL UPPER FORCING TO THE AREA BUT THINK IT WILL BE TOO FAR
EAST SO ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SO HAVE LEFT THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW. A WARM
AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

KNS

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DECREASE BY THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.

KNS

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

10








000
FXUS64 KAMA 191553 CCA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1053 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE 18-00Z POP/WX GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS THAT
SUGGEST SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON.

CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ORGANIZING SHIELD OF
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO. THIS APPEARS WELL HANDLED BY THE TTU-WRF...AND IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A PRONOUNCED LOBE OF FORCING DEPICTED IN VAPOR IMAGERY. HIGH RES
MODELS...INCLUDING THE TTU-WRF...ADVECT THIS ACTIVITY NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN...WESTERN...AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE
DURING THE 20-23Z TIMEFRAME. THUS...HAVE INCREASED GRIDDED POPS
TOWARD 50 PERCENT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE AND CHANCED WORDING
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.

LINDLEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

AVIATION...12Z TAFS

WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SSW DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY. A
FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL THREE SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE BEST CHANCES ARE PROBABLY AT KAMA OR KDHT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCSH BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO
PREVAILING -SHRA OR -TSRA THOUGH CERTAINLY COULD SEE THAT BEING ADDED
IN LATER ISSUANCES.

SIMPSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A NICE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT FOLKS AROUND HERE WOULD NOT MIND FINDING SOME
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION INSTEAD OF EASTER EGGS THIS WEEKEND.

BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BRINGING IN MOISTURE IS DEFINITELY EVIDENT
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EARLY MORNING. WITH MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE...HALF THE BATTLE IN GETTING PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP IS
ALREADY WON. UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY. THE BEST FORCING WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL SUNDAY...BUT IN THE MEANTIME...SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE LATER TODAY. DO THINK PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT IN ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL AND WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE
SW AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY...THINK PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS STILL LINGERING AROUND.

FOR SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DEFINITELY INCREASE ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. AT THIS POINT...THINK ANY SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. STILL NOT CONFIDENT THAT EVERYONE WILL SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES LOOK BETTER WITH
EACH MODEL RUN.

LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES WELL EAST. FOR MONDAY...SKIES WILL
BEGIN CLEARING AS AN UPPER RIDGE FIRMLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION. WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. EVEN THOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS WELL OFF TO THE NORTH...MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE DEVELOPING SOME STORMS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT TOO CONFIDENT THAT
THIS WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR SINCE THE BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN SO FAR NORTH
BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH. BY THURSDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL UPPER FORCING TO THE AREA BUT THINK IT WILL BE TOO FAR
EAST SO ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SO HAVE LEFT THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW. A WARM
AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

KNS

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DECREASE BY THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.

KNS

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

10









000
FXUS64 KAMA 191550
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1050 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE 18-00Z POP/WX GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS THAT
SUGGEST SLIGHLY HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON.

CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ORGANIZING SHEILD OF
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO. THIS APPEARS WELL HANDLED BY THE TTU-WRF...AND IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A PRONOUNCED LOBE OF FORCING DEPICTED IN VAPOR IMAGERY. HIGH RES
MODELS...INCLUDING THE TTU-WRF...ADVECT THIS ACTIVITY NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN...WESTERN...AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE
DURING THE 20-23Z TIMEFRAME. THUS...HAVE INCREASED GRIDDED POPS
TOWARD 50 PERCENT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE AND CHANCED WORDING
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.

LINDLEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

AVIATION...12Z TAFS

WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SSW DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY. A
FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL THREE SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE BEST CHANCES ARE PROBABLY AT KAMA OR KDHT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCSH BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO
PREVAILING -SHRA OR -TSRA THOUGH CERTAINLY COULD SEE THAT BEING ADDED
IN LATER ISSUANCES.

SIMPSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A NICE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT FOLKS AROUND HERE WOULD NOT MIND FINDING SOME
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION INSTEAD OF EASTER EGGS THIS WEEKEND.

BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BRINGING IN MOISTURE IS DEFINITELY EVIDENT
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EARLY MORNING. WITH MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE...HALF THE BATTLE IN GETTING PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP IS
ALREADY WON. UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY. THE BEST FORCING WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL SUNDAY...BUT IN THE MEANTIME...SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE LATER TODAY. DO THINK PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT IN ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL AND WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE
SW AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY...THINK PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS STILL LINGERING AROUND.

FOR SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DEFINITELY INCREASE ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. AT THIS POINT...THINK ANY SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. STILL NOT CONFIDENT THAT EVERYONE WILL SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES LOOK BETTER WITH
EACH MODEL RUN.

LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES WELL EAST. FOR MONDAY...SKIES WILL
BEGIN CLEARING AS AN UPPER RIDGE FIRMLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION. WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. EVEN THOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS WELL OFF TO THE NORTH...MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE DEVELOPING SOME STORMS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT TOO CONFIDENT THAT
THIS WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR SINCE THE BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN SO FAR NORTH
BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH. BY THURSDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL UPPER FORCING TO THE AREA BUT THINK IT WILL BE TOO FAR
EAST SO ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SO HAVE LEFT THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW. A WARM
AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

KNS

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DECREASE BY THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.

KNS

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

10






000
FXUS64 KAMA 191550
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1050 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE 18-00Z POP/WX GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS THAT
SUGGEST SLIGHLY HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON.

CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ORGANIZING SHEILD OF
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO. THIS APPEARS WELL HANDLED BY THE TTU-WRF...AND IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A PRONOUNCED LOBE OF FORCING DEPICTED IN VAPOR IMAGERY. HIGH RES
MODELS...INCLUDING THE TTU-WRF...ADVECT THIS ACTIVITY NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN...WESTERN...AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE
DURING THE 20-23Z TIMEFRAME. THUS...HAVE INCREASED GRIDDED POPS
TOWARD 50 PERCENT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE AND CHANCED WORDING
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.

LINDLEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

AVIATION...12Z TAFS

WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SSW DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY. A
FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL THREE SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE BEST CHANCES ARE PROBABLY AT KAMA OR KDHT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCSH BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO
PREVAILING -SHRA OR -TSRA THOUGH CERTAINLY COULD SEE THAT BEING ADDED
IN LATER ISSUANCES.

SIMPSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A NICE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT FOLKS AROUND HERE WOULD NOT MIND FINDING SOME
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION INSTEAD OF EASTER EGGS THIS WEEKEND.

BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BRINGING IN MOISTURE IS DEFINITELY EVIDENT
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EARLY MORNING. WITH MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE...HALF THE BATTLE IN GETTING PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP IS
ALREADY WON. UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY. THE BEST FORCING WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL SUNDAY...BUT IN THE MEANTIME...SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE LATER TODAY. DO THINK PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT IN ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL AND WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE
SW AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY...THINK PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS STILL LINGERING AROUND.

FOR SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DEFINITELY INCREASE ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. AT THIS POINT...THINK ANY SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. STILL NOT CONFIDENT THAT EVERYONE WILL SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES LOOK BETTER WITH
EACH MODEL RUN.

LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES WELL EAST. FOR MONDAY...SKIES WILL
BEGIN CLEARING AS AN UPPER RIDGE FIRMLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION. WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. EVEN THOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS WELL OFF TO THE NORTH...MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE DEVELOPING SOME STORMS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT TOO CONFIDENT THAT
THIS WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR SINCE THE BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN SO FAR NORTH
BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH. BY THURSDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL UPPER FORCING TO THE AREA BUT THINK IT WILL BE TOO FAR
EAST SO ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SO HAVE LEFT THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW. A WARM
AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

KNS

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DECREASE BY THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.

KNS

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

10







000
FXUS64 KAMA 191149
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
649 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS

WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SSW DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY. A
FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL THREE SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE BEST CHANCES ARE PROBABLY AT KAMA OR KDHT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCSH BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO
PREVAILING -SHRA OR -TSRA THOUGH CERTAINLY COULD SEE THAT BEING ADDED
IN LATER ISSUANCES.

SIMPSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A NICE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT FOLKS AROUND HERE WOULD NOT MIND FINDING SOME
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION INSTEAD OF EASTER EGGS THIS WEEKEND.

BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BRINGING IN MOISTURE IS DEFINITELY EVIDENT
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EARLY MORNING. WITH MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE...HALF THE BATTLE IN GETTING PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP IS
ALREADY WON. UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY. THE BEST FORCING WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL SUNDAY...BUT IN THE MEANTIME...SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE LATER TODAY. DO THINK PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT IN ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL AND WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE
SW AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY...THINK PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS STILL LINGERING AROUND.

FOR SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DEFINITELY INCREASE ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. AT THIS POINT...THINK ANY SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. STILL NOT CONFIDENT THAT EVERYONE WILL SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES LOOK BETTER WITH
EACH MODEL RUN.

LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES WELL EAST. FOR MONDAY...SKIES WILL
BEGIN CLEARING AS AN UPPER RIDGE FIRMLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION. WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. EVEN THOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS WELL OFF TO THE NORTH...MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE DEVELOPING SOME STORMS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT TOO CONFIDENT THAT
THIS WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR SINCE THE BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN SO FAR NORTH
BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH. BY THURSDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL UPPER FORCING TO THE AREA BUT THINK IT WILL BE TOO FAR
EAST SO ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SO HAVE LEFT THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW. A WARM
AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

KNS

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DECREASE BY THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.

KNS

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

09/99







000
FXUS64 KAMA 191149
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
649 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS

WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SSW DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY. A
FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL THREE SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE BEST CHANCES ARE PROBABLY AT KAMA OR KDHT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCSH BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO
PREVAILING -SHRA OR -TSRA THOUGH CERTAINLY COULD SEE THAT BEING ADDED
IN LATER ISSUANCES.

SIMPSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A NICE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT FOLKS AROUND HERE WOULD NOT MIND FINDING SOME
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION INSTEAD OF EASTER EGGS THIS WEEKEND.

BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BRINGING IN MOISTURE IS DEFINITELY EVIDENT
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EARLY MORNING. WITH MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE...HALF THE BATTLE IN GETTING PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP IS
ALREADY WON. UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY. THE BEST FORCING WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL SUNDAY...BUT IN THE MEANTIME...SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE LATER TODAY. DO THINK PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT IN ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL AND WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE
SW AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY...THINK PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS STILL LINGERING AROUND.

FOR SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DEFINITELY INCREASE ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. AT THIS POINT...THINK ANY SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. STILL NOT CONFIDENT THAT EVERYONE WILL SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES LOOK BETTER WITH
EACH MODEL RUN.

LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES WELL EAST. FOR MONDAY...SKIES WILL
BEGIN CLEARING AS AN UPPER RIDGE FIRMLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION. WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. EVEN THOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS WELL OFF TO THE NORTH...MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE DEVELOPING SOME STORMS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT TOO CONFIDENT THAT
THIS WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR SINCE THE BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN SO FAR NORTH
BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH. BY THURSDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL UPPER FORCING TO THE AREA BUT THINK IT WILL BE TOO FAR
EAST SO ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SO HAVE LEFT THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW. A WARM
AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

KNS

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DECREASE BY THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.

KNS

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

09/99






000
FXUS64 KAMA 190821
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
321 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A NICE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT FOLKS AROUND HERE WOULD NOT MIND FINDING SOME
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION INSTEAD OF EASTER EGGS THIS WEEKEND.

BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BRINGING IN MOISTURE IS DEFINITELY EVIDENT
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EARLY MORNING. WITH MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE...HALF THE BATTLE IN GETTING PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP IS
ALREADY WON. UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY. THE BEST FORCING WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL SUNDAY...BUT IN THE MEANTIME...SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE LATER TODAY. DO THINK PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT IN ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL AND WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE
SW AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY...THINK PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS STILL LINGERING AROUND.

FOR SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DEFINITELY INCREASE ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. AT THIS POINT...THINK ANY SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. STILL NOT CONFIDENT THAT EVERYONE WILL SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES LOOK BETTER WITH
EACH MODEL RUN.

LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES WELL EAST. FOR MONDAY...SKIES WILL
BEGIN CLEARING AS AN UPPER RIDGE FIRMLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION. WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. EVEN THOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS WELL OFF TO THE NORTH...MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE DEVELOPING SOME STORMS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT TOO CONFIDENT THAT
THIS WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR SINCE THE BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN SO FAR NORTH
BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH. BY THURSDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL UPPER FORCING TO THE AREA BUT THINK IT WILL BE TOO FAR
EAST SO ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SO HAVE LEFT THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW. A WARM
AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

KNS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DECREASE BY THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.

KNS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                75  54  74  51  77 /  30  30  30  20   0
BEAVER OK                  81  57  77  53  79 /  20  30  50  50   0
BOISE CITY OK              78  51  71  50  74 /  20  20  50  20   0
BORGER TX                  79  59  76  57  80 /  30  30  40  20   0
BOYS RANCH TX              78  54  78  51  80 /  30  30  30  20   0
CANYON TX                  74  54  75  51  79 /  30  30  30  20   0
CLARENDON TX               75  57  75  55  80 /  20  30  40  20   0
DALHART TX                 76  50  73  49  77 /  20  30  40  20   0
GUYMON OK                  80  54  75  51  77 /  20  30  50  20   0
HEREFORD TX                74  53  75  49  77 /  30  30  30  10   0
LIPSCOMB TX                77  57  78  56  78 /  20  30  50  40   0
PAMPA TX                   76  56  75  53  77 /  20  30  50  20   0
SHAMROCK TX                77  57  78  56  79 /  20  30  50  40   0
WELLINGTON TX              79  58  79  56  81 /  20  20  50  30   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KAMA 190821
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
321 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A NICE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT FOLKS AROUND HERE WOULD NOT MIND FINDING SOME
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION INSTEAD OF EASTER EGGS THIS WEEKEND.

BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BRINGING IN MOISTURE IS DEFINITELY EVIDENT
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EARLY MORNING. WITH MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE...HALF THE BATTLE IN GETTING PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP IS
ALREADY WON. UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY. THE BEST FORCING WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL SUNDAY...BUT IN THE MEANTIME...SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE LATER TODAY. DO THINK PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT IN ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL AND WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE
SW AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY...THINK PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS STILL LINGERING AROUND.

FOR SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DEFINITELY INCREASE ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. AT THIS POINT...THINK ANY SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. STILL NOT CONFIDENT THAT EVERYONE WILL SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES LOOK BETTER WITH
EACH MODEL RUN.

LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES WELL EAST. FOR MONDAY...SKIES WILL
BEGIN CLEARING AS AN UPPER RIDGE FIRMLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION. WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. EVEN THOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS WELL OFF TO THE NORTH...MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE DEVELOPING SOME STORMS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT TOO CONFIDENT THAT
THIS WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR SINCE THE BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN SO FAR NORTH
BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH. BY THURSDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL UPPER FORCING TO THE AREA BUT THINK IT WILL BE TOO FAR
EAST SO ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SO HAVE LEFT THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW. A WARM
AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

KNS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DECREASE BY THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.

KNS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                75  54  74  51  77 /  30  30  30  20   0
BEAVER OK                  81  57  77  53  79 /  20  30  50  50   0
BOISE CITY OK              78  51  71  50  74 /  20  20  50  20   0
BORGER TX                  79  59  76  57  80 /  30  30  40  20   0
BOYS RANCH TX              78  54  78  51  80 /  30  30  30  20   0
CANYON TX                  74  54  75  51  79 /  30  30  30  20   0
CLARENDON TX               75  57  75  55  80 /  20  30  40  20   0
DALHART TX                 76  50  73  49  77 /  20  30  40  20   0
GUYMON OK                  80  54  75  51  77 /  20  30  50  20   0
HEREFORD TX                74  53  75  49  77 /  30  30  30  10   0
LIPSCOMB TX                77  57  78  56  78 /  20  30  50  40   0
PAMPA TX                   76  56  75  53  77 /  20  30  50  20   0
SHAMROCK TX                77  57  78  56  79 /  20  30  50  40   0
WELLINGTON TX              79  58  79  56  81 /  20  20  50  30   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KAMA 190401 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1101 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN TO ALL
SITES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35
KTS. CONFIDENCE STILL REMAINS LOW IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SO HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT
OF TAFS FOR NOW. BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE AT KDHT AFTER 21Z. AT THE
TAIL END OF THE PERIOD RA OR TS MAY IMPACT KAMA AND KGUY.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL EASE A LITTLE AFTER
SUNSET...THOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS
OVERNIGHT FOR ALL SITES. GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS WILL DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN TOMORROW. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO MENTION RAIN OR
THUNDERSTORMS AT ANY SITE...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT TAF SITES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NF

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOW JUST MOVING ON SHORE IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THIS FEATURE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ON THE SATELLITE AND IS PUMPING
A LOT OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE ONCE THIS SYSTEM GETS INTO THE UPPER AIR
GRID ON WHAT THAT DATA WILL DO TO THE MODELS. THE MODELS SEEM A
LITTLE DRY OVER OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
GIVEN THE VIGOROUS SYSTEM. AT ANY RATE...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND THEN IT WILL OPEN
UP AS IT MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY. A
COUPLE OF MINOR SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY MOVE OUT AHEAD OF THE LARGER
UPPER TROUGH WHICH COULD HELP TO SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. A SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT.

THE WEATHER LOOKS DRY BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANY NEW SYSTEMS MISS US
TO THE NORTH. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN STORE
ALONG WITH INCREASING WINDS.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EASTER WEEKEND GIVEN THE CHANCES OF RAIN. WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DECREASE BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/11







000
FXUS64 KAMA 190401 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1101 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN TO ALL
SITES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35
KTS. CONFIDENCE STILL REMAINS LOW IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SO HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT
OF TAFS FOR NOW. BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE AT KDHT AFTER 21Z. AT THE
TAIL END OF THE PERIOD RA OR TS MAY IMPACT KAMA AND KGUY.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL EASE A LITTLE AFTER
SUNSET...THOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS
OVERNIGHT FOR ALL SITES. GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS WILL DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN TOMORROW. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO MENTION RAIN OR
THUNDERSTORMS AT ANY SITE...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT TAF SITES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NF

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOW JUST MOVING ON SHORE IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THIS FEATURE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ON THE SATELLITE AND IS PUMPING
A LOT OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE ONCE THIS SYSTEM GETS INTO THE UPPER AIR
GRID ON WHAT THAT DATA WILL DO TO THE MODELS. THE MODELS SEEM A
LITTLE DRY OVER OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
GIVEN THE VIGOROUS SYSTEM. AT ANY RATE...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND THEN IT WILL OPEN
UP AS IT MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY. A
COUPLE OF MINOR SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY MOVE OUT AHEAD OF THE LARGER
UPPER TROUGH WHICH COULD HELP TO SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. A SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT.

THE WEATHER LOOKS DRY BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANY NEW SYSTEMS MISS US
TO THE NORTH. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN STORE
ALONG WITH INCREASING WINDS.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EASTER WEEKEND GIVEN THE CHANCES OF RAIN. WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DECREASE BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/11






000
FXUS64 KAMA 182331 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
631 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL EASE A LITTLE AFTER
SUNSET...THOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS
OVERNIGHT FOR ALL SITES. GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS WILL DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN TOMORROW. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO MENTION RAIN OR
THUNDERSTORMS AT ANY SITE...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT TAF SITES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOW JUST MOVING ON SHORE IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THIS FEATURE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ON THE SATELLITE AND IS PUMPING
A LOT OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE ONCE THIS SYSTEM GETS INTO THE UPPER AIR
GRID ON WHAT THAT DATA WILL DO TO THE MODELS. THE MODELS SEEM A
LITTLE DRY OVER OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
GIVEN THE VIGOROUS SYSTEM. AT ANY RATE...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND THEN IT WILL OPEN
UP AS IT MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY. A
COUPLE OF MINOR SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY MOVE OUT AHEAD OF THE LARGER
UPPER TROUGH WHICH COULD HELP TO SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. A SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT.

THE WEATHER LOOKS DRY BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANY NEW SYSTEMS MISS US
TO THE NORTH. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN STORE
ALONG WITH INCREASING WINDS.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EASTER WEEKEND GIVEN THE CHANCES OF RAIN. WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DECREASE BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/11






000
FXUS64 KAMA 182331 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
631 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL EASE A LITTLE AFTER
SUNSET...THOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS
OVERNIGHT FOR ALL SITES. GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS WILL DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN TOMORROW. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO MENTION RAIN OR
THUNDERSTORMS AT ANY SITE...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT TAF SITES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOW JUST MOVING ON SHORE IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THIS FEATURE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ON THE SATELLITE AND IS PUMPING
A LOT OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE ONCE THIS SYSTEM GETS INTO THE UPPER AIR
GRID ON WHAT THAT DATA WILL DO TO THE MODELS. THE MODELS SEEM A
LITTLE DRY OVER OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
GIVEN THE VIGOROUS SYSTEM. AT ANY RATE...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND THEN IT WILL OPEN
UP AS IT MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY. A
COUPLE OF MINOR SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY MOVE OUT AHEAD OF THE LARGER
UPPER TROUGH WHICH COULD HELP TO SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. A SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT.

THE WEATHER LOOKS DRY BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANY NEW SYSTEMS MISS US
TO THE NORTH. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN STORE
ALONG WITH INCREASING WINDS.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EASTER WEEKEND GIVEN THE CHANCES OF RAIN. WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DECREASE BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/11







000
FXUS64 KAMA 182021
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
321 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOW JUST MOVING ON SHORE IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THIS FEATURE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ON THE SATELLITE AND IS PUMPING
A LOT OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE ONCE THIS SYSTEM GETS INTO THE UPPER AIR
GRID ON WHAT THAT DATA WILL DO TO THE MODELS. THE MODELS SEEM A
LITTLE DRY OVER OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
GIVEN THE VIGOROUS SYSTEM. AT ANY RATE...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND THEN IT WILL OPEN
UP AS IT MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY. A
COUPLE OF MINOR SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY MOVE OUT AHEAD OF THE LARGER
UPPER TROUGH WHICH COULD HELP TO SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. A SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT.

THE WEATHER LOOKS DRY BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANY NEW SYSTEMS MISS US
TO THE NORTH. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN STORE
ALONG WITH INCREASING WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EASTER WEEKEND GIVEN THE CHANCES OF RAIN. WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DECREASE BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                51  73  53  74  50 /   0  20  30  20  20
BEAVER OK                  50  79  54  79  51 /   0  20  30  30  20
BOISE CITY OK              49  77  49  74  49 /   0  20  30  30  20
BORGER TX                  52  78  56  76  53 /   0  20  30  30  20
BOYS RANCH TX              51  76  52  79  51 /   0  20  30  20  20
CANYON TX                  50  73  52  75  49 /   0  20  30  20  20
CLARENDON TX               51  75  55  76  55 /   0  20  30  30  20
DALHART TX                 47  74  47  76  47 /   0  20  30  20  20
GUYMON OK                  49  80  50  77  51 /   0  20  30  30  20
HEREFORD TX                49  70  50  76  48 /   0  20  30  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                51  76  55  76  55 /   0  20  30  30  20
PAMPA TX                   49  73  53  73  52 /   0  20  30  30  20
SHAMROCK TX                50  76  56  75  55 /   0  20  30  40  20
WELLINGTON TX              50  77  56  76  56 /   0  20  30  40  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/15





000
FXUS64 KAMA 182021
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
321 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOW JUST MOVING ON SHORE IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THIS FEATURE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ON THE SATELLITE AND IS PUMPING
A LOT OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE ONCE THIS SYSTEM GETS INTO THE UPPER AIR
GRID ON WHAT THAT DATA WILL DO TO THE MODELS. THE MODELS SEEM A
LITTLE DRY OVER OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
GIVEN THE VIGOROUS SYSTEM. AT ANY RATE...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND THEN IT WILL OPEN
UP AS IT MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY. A
COUPLE OF MINOR SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY MOVE OUT AHEAD OF THE LARGER
UPPER TROUGH WHICH COULD HELP TO SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. A SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT.

THE WEATHER LOOKS DRY BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANY NEW SYSTEMS MISS US
TO THE NORTH. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN STORE
ALONG WITH INCREASING WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EASTER WEEKEND GIVEN THE CHANCES OF RAIN. WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DECREASE BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                51  73  53  74  50 /   0  20  30  20  20
BEAVER OK                  50  79  54  79  51 /   0  20  30  30  20
BOISE CITY OK              49  77  49  74  49 /   0  20  30  30  20
BORGER TX                  52  78  56  76  53 /   0  20  30  30  20
BOYS RANCH TX              51  76  52  79  51 /   0  20  30  20  20
CANYON TX                  50  73  52  75  49 /   0  20  30  20  20
CLARENDON TX               51  75  55  76  55 /   0  20  30  30  20
DALHART TX                 47  74  47  76  47 /   0  20  30  20  20
GUYMON OK                  49  80  50  77  51 /   0  20  30  30  20
HEREFORD TX                49  70  50  76  48 /   0  20  30  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                51  76  55  76  55 /   0  20  30  30  20
PAMPA TX                   49  73  53  73  52 /   0  20  30  30  20
SHAMROCK TX                50  76  56  75  55 /   0  20  30  40  20
WELLINGTON TX              50  77  56  76  56 /   0  20  30  40  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/15






000
FXUS64 KAMA 181747
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1247 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONFIDENCE FOR CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19/18Z IS HIGH AT
KDHT AND KGUY. PESKILY PERSISTENT STRATUS CONTINUES NEAR KAMA.
RENEWED CLOUDINESS SPREADING EASTWARD WILL THREATEN LOW VFR /NEAR
MVFR/ CEILINGS THROUGH 18/19Z...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER
IN THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AND GENERALLY FROM
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OTHER THAN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...RATHER QUIET SENSIBLE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE FCST AREA. WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE OFFING FOR TODAY.

A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF WILL IMPACT THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND. ALL MODELS HAVE SLOWED THIS SYSTEM DOWN SUCH THAT ITS
INFLUENCE WILL LIKELY LAST INTO SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING. HAVE GONE
WITH THE MODEL MAJORITY AND FOLLOWED SUIT WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
SOLUTION COMPARED TO EARLIER MODEL RUNS. DECIDED TO PULL POPS FOR
TONIGHT FOR WRN TX PNHDL AND THEN REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FOR
SATURDAY DUE TO THE EXPECTED SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THIS NEXT STORM
SYSTEM AND IN ACCORDANCE WITH LATEST NAM/GFS/ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE.

LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORWTAVE TROF WILL
AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND HAVE RETAINED SLGT
CHC TO CHC POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND REORIENTED THEM SUNDAY TO
ENCOMPASS ALL OF THE FCST AREA WITH SLGT CHC VALUES WRN AND
CNTRL SECTIONS...AND CHC POPS ERN ZONES. PRECIP TYPE THIS WEEKEND
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. NAM/ECMWF/GFS/CMC MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS SOME PRECIP INTO SUNDAY EVENING...AND HAVE INSERTED
SLGT CHC POPS FOR ALL OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL 06Z...THEN DRY REMAINDER
OF SUNDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE CNTRL STATES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. MODELS DISAGREE IN HANDLING THIS PARTICULAR
STORM SYSTEM IN ALL ASPECTS RANGING FROM TROF ORIENTATION TO PROGGED
SPEED OF MOVEMENT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION AREAS. THE 00Z ECMWF
IS THE FASTEST AND 00Z GFS THE SLOWEST. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE
PRONOUNCED SW LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS STORM SYSTEM WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS SEEN FOR WEDNESDAY. THESE SW WINDS WILL LIKELY SEND THE
DRYLINE FAIRLY QUICKLY EWD INTO EITHER THE ERN ZONES OR PERHAPS WRN
OK BY LATE WED AFTERNOON. FCSTG WHERE THIS DRYLINE BOUNDARY SITUATES
ITSELF DURG THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IS AN EXERCISE IN FUTILITY THIS
FAR OUT IN TIME AND IS BEST HANDLED AS TIME GETS CLOSER AND MODELS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. THEREFORE...FOR REASONS MENTIONED ABOVE...HAVE DECIDED TO
RETAIN A DRY FCST FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH TUESDAY. IF SUFFICIENT PRECIPITATION DOES NOT OCCUR THIS WEEKEND
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM...THEN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

10






000
FXUS64 KAMA 181747
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1247 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONFIDENCE FOR CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19/18Z IS HIGH AT
KDHT AND KGUY. PESKILY PERSISTENT STRATUS CONTINUES NEAR KAMA.
RENEWED CLOUDINESS SPREADING EASTWARD WILL THREATEN LOW VFR /NEAR
MVFR/ CEILINGS THROUGH 18/19Z...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER
IN THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AND GENERALLY FROM
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OTHER THAN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...RATHER QUIET SENSIBLE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE FCST AREA. WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE OFFING FOR TODAY.

A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF WILL IMPACT THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND. ALL MODELS HAVE SLOWED THIS SYSTEM DOWN SUCH THAT ITS
INFLUENCE WILL LIKELY LAST INTO SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING. HAVE GONE
WITH THE MODEL MAJORITY AND FOLLOWED SUIT WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
SOLUTION COMPARED TO EARLIER MODEL RUNS. DECIDED TO PULL POPS FOR
TONIGHT FOR WRN TX PNHDL AND THEN REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FOR
SATURDAY DUE TO THE EXPECTED SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THIS NEXT STORM
SYSTEM AND IN ACCORDANCE WITH LATEST NAM/GFS/ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE.

LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORWTAVE TROF WILL
AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND HAVE RETAINED SLGT
CHC TO CHC POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND REORIENTED THEM SUNDAY TO
ENCOMPASS ALL OF THE FCST AREA WITH SLGT CHC VALUES WRN AND
CNTRL SECTIONS...AND CHC POPS ERN ZONES. PRECIP TYPE THIS WEEKEND
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. NAM/ECMWF/GFS/CMC MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS SOME PRECIP INTO SUNDAY EVENING...AND HAVE INSERTED
SLGT CHC POPS FOR ALL OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL 06Z...THEN DRY REMAINDER
OF SUNDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE CNTRL STATES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. MODELS DISAGREE IN HANDLING THIS PARTICULAR
STORM SYSTEM IN ALL ASPECTS RANGING FROM TROF ORIENTATION TO PROGGED
SPEED OF MOVEMENT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION AREAS. THE 00Z ECMWF
IS THE FASTEST AND 00Z GFS THE SLOWEST. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE
PRONOUNCED SW LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS STORM SYSTEM WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS SEEN FOR WEDNESDAY. THESE SW WINDS WILL LIKELY SEND THE
DRYLINE FAIRLY QUICKLY EWD INTO EITHER THE ERN ZONES OR PERHAPS WRN
OK BY LATE WED AFTERNOON. FCSTG WHERE THIS DRYLINE BOUNDARY SITUATES
ITSELF DURG THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IS AN EXERCISE IN FUTILITY THIS
FAR OUT IN TIME AND IS BEST HANDLED AS TIME GETS CLOSER AND MODELS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. THEREFORE...FOR REASONS MENTIONED ABOVE...HAVE DECIDED TO
RETAIN A DRY FCST FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH TUESDAY. IF SUFFICIENT PRECIPITATION DOES NOT OCCUR THIS WEEKEND
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM...THEN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

10







000
FXUS64 KAMA 181145 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
645 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/ LIGHT GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN AREAS OF
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...WITH CIGS AND VISBYS IN THE MVFR RANGE. CLOUDS
AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR LATER THIS MORNING WHILE SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH
AT AROUND 15 KTS THIS EVENING WHILE HIGH CLOUDS START TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OTHER THAN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...RATHER QUIET SENSIBLE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE FCST AREA. WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE OFFING FOR TODAY.

A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF WILL IMPACT THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND. ALL MODELS HAVE SLOWED THIS SYSTEM DOWN SUCH THAT ITS
INFLUENCE WILL LIKELY LAST INTO SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING. HAVE GONE
WITH THE MODEL MAJORITY AND FOLLOWED SUIT WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
SOLUTION COMPARED TO EARLIER MODEL RUNS. DECIDED TO PULL POPS FOR
TONIGHT FOR WRN TX PNHDL AND THEN REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FOR
SATURDAY DUE TO THE EXPECTED SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THIS NEXT STORM
SYSTEM AND IN ACCORDANCE WITH LATEST NAM/GFS/ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE.

LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORWTAVE TROF WILL
AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND HAVE RETAINED SLGT
CHC TO CHC POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND REORIENTED THEM SUNDAY TO
ENCOMPASS ALL OF THE FCST AREA WITH SLGT CHC VALUES WRN AND
CNTRL SECTIONS...AND CHC POPS ERN ZONES. PRECIP TYPE THIS WEEKEND
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. NAM/ECMWF/GFS/CMC MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS SOME PRECIP INTO SUNDAY EVENING...AND HAVE INSERTED
SLGT CHC POPS FOR ALL OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL 06Z...THEN DRY REMAINDER
OF SUNDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE CNTRL STATES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. MODELS DISAGREE IN HANDLING THIS PARTICULAR
STORM SYSTEM IN ALL ASPECTS RANGING FROM TROF ORIENTATION TO PROGGED
SPEED OF MOVEMENT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION AREAS. THE 00Z ECMWF
IS THE FASTEST AND 00Z GFS THE SLOWEST. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE
PRONOUNCED SW LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS STORM SYSTEM WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS SEEN FOR WEDNESDAY. THESE SW WINDS WILL LIKELY SEND THE
DRYLINE FAIRLY QUICKLY EWD INTO EITHER THE ERN ZONES OR PERHAPS WRN
OK BY LATE WED AFTERNOON. FCSTG WHERE THIS DRYLINE BOUNDARY SITUATES
ITSELF DURG THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IS AN EXERCISE IN FUTILITY THIS
FAR OUT IN TIME AND IS BEST HANDLED AS TIME GETS CLOSER AND MODELS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. THEREFORE...FOR REASONS MENTIONED ABOVE...HAVE DECIDED TO
RETAIN A DRY FCST FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH TUESDAY. IF SUFFICIENT PRECIPITATION DOES NOT OCCUR THIS WEEKEND
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM...THEN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 181145 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
645 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/ LIGHT GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN AREAS OF
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...WITH CIGS AND VISBYS IN THE MVFR RANGE. CLOUDS
AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR LATER THIS MORNING WHILE SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH
AT AROUND 15 KTS THIS EVENING WHILE HIGH CLOUDS START TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OTHER THAN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...RATHER QUIET SENSIBLE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE FCST AREA. WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE OFFING FOR TODAY.

A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF WILL IMPACT THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND. ALL MODELS HAVE SLOWED THIS SYSTEM DOWN SUCH THAT ITS
INFLUENCE WILL LIKELY LAST INTO SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING. HAVE GONE
WITH THE MODEL MAJORITY AND FOLLOWED SUIT WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
SOLUTION COMPARED TO EARLIER MODEL RUNS. DECIDED TO PULL POPS FOR
TONIGHT FOR WRN TX PNHDL AND THEN REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FOR
SATURDAY DUE TO THE EXPECTED SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THIS NEXT STORM
SYSTEM AND IN ACCORDANCE WITH LATEST NAM/GFS/ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE.

LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORWTAVE TROF WILL
AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND HAVE RETAINED SLGT
CHC TO CHC POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND REORIENTED THEM SUNDAY TO
ENCOMPASS ALL OF THE FCST AREA WITH SLGT CHC VALUES WRN AND
CNTRL SECTIONS...AND CHC POPS ERN ZONES. PRECIP TYPE THIS WEEKEND
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. NAM/ECMWF/GFS/CMC MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS SOME PRECIP INTO SUNDAY EVENING...AND HAVE INSERTED
SLGT CHC POPS FOR ALL OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL 06Z...THEN DRY REMAINDER
OF SUNDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE CNTRL STATES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. MODELS DISAGREE IN HANDLING THIS PARTICULAR
STORM SYSTEM IN ALL ASPECTS RANGING FROM TROF ORIENTATION TO PROGGED
SPEED OF MOVEMENT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION AREAS. THE 00Z ECMWF
IS THE FASTEST AND 00Z GFS THE SLOWEST. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE
PRONOUNCED SW LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS STORM SYSTEM WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS SEEN FOR WEDNESDAY. THESE SW WINDS WILL LIKELY SEND THE
DRYLINE FAIRLY QUICKLY EWD INTO EITHER THE ERN ZONES OR PERHAPS WRN
OK BY LATE WED AFTERNOON. FCSTG WHERE THIS DRYLINE BOUNDARY SITUATES
ITSELF DURG THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IS AN EXERCISE IN FUTILITY THIS
FAR OUT IN TIME AND IS BEST HANDLED AS TIME GETS CLOSER AND MODELS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. THEREFORE...FOR REASONS MENTIONED ABOVE...HAVE DECIDED TO
RETAIN A DRY FCST FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH TUESDAY. IF SUFFICIENT PRECIPITATION DOES NOT OCCUR THIS WEEKEND
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM...THEN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 181104
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
604 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
OTHER THAN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...RATHER QUIET SENSIBLE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE FCST AREA. WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE OFFING FOR TODAY.

A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF WILL IMPACT THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND. ALL MODELS HAVE SLOWED THIS SYSTEM DOWN SUCH THAT ITS
INFLUENCE WILL LIKELY LAST INTO SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING. HAVE GONE
WITH THE MODEL MAJORITY AND FOLLOWED SUIT WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
SOLUTION COMPARED TO EARLIER MODEL RUNS. DECIDED TO PULL POPS FOR
TONIGHT FOR WRN TX PNHDL AND THEN REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FOR
SATURDAY DUE TO THE EXPECTED SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THIS NEXT STORM
SYSTEM AND IN ACCORDANCE WITH LATEST NAM/GFS/ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE.

LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORWTAVE TROF WILL
AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND HAVE RETAINED SLGT
CHC TO CHC POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND REORIENTED THEM SUNDAY TO
ENCOMPASS ALL OF THE FCST AREA WITH SLGT CHC VALUES WRN AND
CNTRL SECTIONS...AND CHC POPS ERN ZONES. PRECIP TYPE THIS WEEKEND
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. NAM/ECMWF/GFS/CMC MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS SOME PRECIP INTO SUNDAY EVENING...AND HAVE INSERTED
SLGT CHC POPS FOR ALL OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL 06Z...THEN DRY REMAINDER
OF SUNDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE CNTRL STATES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. MODELS DISAGREE IN HANDLING THIS PARTICULAR
STORM SYSTEM IN ALL ASPECTS RANGING FROM TROF ORIENTATION TO PROGGED
SPEED OF MOVEMENT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION AREAS. THE 00Z ECMWF
IS THE FASTEST AND 00Z GFS THE SLOWEST. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE
PRONOUNCED SW LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS STORM SYSTEM WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS SEEN FOR WEDNESDAY. THESE SW WINDS WILL LIKELY SEND THE
DRYLINE FAIRLY QUICKLY EWD INTO EITHER THE ERN ZONES OR PERHAPS WRN
OK BY LATE WED AFTERNOON. FCSTG WHERE THIS DRYLINE BOUNDARY SITUATES
ITSELF DURG THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IS AN EXERCISE IN FUTILITY THIS
FAR OUT IN TIME AND IS BEST HANDLED AS TIME GETS CLOSER AND MODELS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. THEREFORE...FOR REASONS MENTIONED ABOVE...HAVE DECIDED TO
RETAIN A DRY FCST FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH TUESDAY. IF SUFFICIENT PRECIPITATION DOES NOT OCCUR THIS WEEKEND
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM...THEN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES.

ANDRADE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                72  50  75  52  75 /   0   0  20  30  20
BEAVER OK                  74  50  79  53  77 /   0   0  20  30  30
BOISE CITY OK              74  49  76  48  72 /   0   0  20  30  20
BORGER TX                  74  53  80  56  76 /   0   0  20  30  20
BOYS RANCH TX              74  49  76  50  76 /   0   0  20  30  20
CANYON TX                  72  50  75  51  75 /   0   0  20  30  20
CLARENDON TX               71  51  76  54  77 /   0   0  20  30  30
DALHART TX                 75  47  77  48  74 /   0   0  20  30  20
GUYMON OK                  75  50  78  52  77 /   0   0  20  30  20
HEREFORD TX                72  49  75  50  75 /   0   0  20  30  20
LIPSCOMB TX                71  51  77  54  77 /   0   0  20  30  30
PAMPA TX                   72  50  77  53  75 /   0   0  20  30  30
SHAMROCK TX                71  51  77  55  78 /   0   0  20  30  30
WELLINGTON TX              71  52  77  56  79 /   0   0  20  30  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 181104
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
604 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
OTHER THAN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...RATHER QUIET SENSIBLE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE FCST AREA. WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE OFFING FOR TODAY.

A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF WILL IMPACT THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND. ALL MODELS HAVE SLOWED THIS SYSTEM DOWN SUCH THAT ITS
INFLUENCE WILL LIKELY LAST INTO SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING. HAVE GONE
WITH THE MODEL MAJORITY AND FOLLOWED SUIT WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
SOLUTION COMPARED TO EARLIER MODEL RUNS. DECIDED TO PULL POPS FOR
TONIGHT FOR WRN TX PNHDL AND THEN REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FOR
SATURDAY DUE TO THE EXPECTED SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THIS NEXT STORM
SYSTEM AND IN ACCORDANCE WITH LATEST NAM/GFS/ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE.

LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORWTAVE TROF WILL
AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND HAVE RETAINED SLGT
CHC TO CHC POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND REORIENTED THEM SUNDAY TO
ENCOMPASS ALL OF THE FCST AREA WITH SLGT CHC VALUES WRN AND
CNTRL SECTIONS...AND CHC POPS ERN ZONES. PRECIP TYPE THIS WEEKEND
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. NAM/ECMWF/GFS/CMC MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS SOME PRECIP INTO SUNDAY EVENING...AND HAVE INSERTED
SLGT CHC POPS FOR ALL OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL 06Z...THEN DRY REMAINDER
OF SUNDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE CNTRL STATES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. MODELS DISAGREE IN HANDLING THIS PARTICULAR
STORM SYSTEM IN ALL ASPECTS RANGING FROM TROF ORIENTATION TO PROGGED
SPEED OF MOVEMENT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION AREAS. THE 00Z ECMWF
IS THE FASTEST AND 00Z GFS THE SLOWEST. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE
PRONOUNCED SW LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS STORM SYSTEM WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS SEEN FOR WEDNESDAY. THESE SW WINDS WILL LIKELY SEND THE
DRYLINE FAIRLY QUICKLY EWD INTO EITHER THE ERN ZONES OR PERHAPS WRN
OK BY LATE WED AFTERNOON. FCSTG WHERE THIS DRYLINE BOUNDARY SITUATES
ITSELF DURG THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IS AN EXERCISE IN FUTILITY THIS
FAR OUT IN TIME AND IS BEST HANDLED AS TIME GETS CLOSER AND MODELS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. THEREFORE...FOR REASONS MENTIONED ABOVE...HAVE DECIDED TO
RETAIN A DRY FCST FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH TUESDAY. IF SUFFICIENT PRECIPITATION DOES NOT OCCUR THIS WEEKEND
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM...THEN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES.

ANDRADE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                72  50  75  52  75 /   0   0  20  30  20
BEAVER OK                  74  50  79  53  77 /   0   0  20  30  30
BOISE CITY OK              74  49  76  48  72 /   0   0  20  30  20
BORGER TX                  74  53  80  56  76 /   0   0  20  30  20
BOYS RANCH TX              74  49  76  50  76 /   0   0  20  30  20
CANYON TX                  72  50  75  51  75 /   0   0  20  30  20
CLARENDON TX               71  51  76  54  77 /   0   0  20  30  30
DALHART TX                 75  47  77  48  74 /   0   0  20  30  20
GUYMON OK                  75  50  78  52  77 /   0   0  20  30  20
HEREFORD TX                72  49  75  50  75 /   0   0  20  30  20
LIPSCOMB TX                71  51  77  54  77 /   0   0  20  30  30
PAMPA TX                   72  50  77  53  75 /   0   0  20  30  30
SHAMROCK TX                71  51  77  55  78 /   0   0  20  30  30
WELLINGTON TX              71  52  77  56  79 /   0   0  20  30  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KAMA 180426
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1126 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES MAY POSSIBLY BECOME MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS
RETURNING FROM THE EAST AND FOG DEVELOPING BETWEEN 08Z TO 10Z
FRIDAY...AND 14Z TO 16Z FRIDAY MAINLY AT THE GUYMON AND AMARILLO TAF
SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY 16Z TO 18Z FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTHERLY 15 TO 25
KNOTS AFTER 15Z TO 16Z FRIDAY...AND THEN DIMINISHING AGAIN BY 02Z
SATURDAY TO AROUND 15 KNOTS.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
DRIER NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WHILE
A LIGHT MOIST UPSLOPE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WIND AROUND 5 TO
10 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
WITH THE DRIER AIR ALOFT AND LACK OF HIGHER CLOUDS AND THE MOIST
SURFACE WIND AND LOW CLOUDS...SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MAINLY THE
GUYMON AND AMARILLO TAF SITES AFTER 08Z TO 10Z FRIDAY AND THEN
LIFTING BY 15Z TO 16Z FRIDAY. CURRENT MVFR CEILINGS AT AMARILLO WILL
BECOME VFR BY 02Z FRIDAY BUT THEN MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING DUE
TO SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 1 TO 3
MILES MAINLY AT THE GUYMON AND AMARILLO TAF SITES BETWEEN 08Z TO 10Z
FRIDAY...AND 15Z TO 16Z FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BY 18Z
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS AFTER 16Z FRIDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN KANSAS AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL CAUSE THE NORTHEAST
WINDS TO SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT INTO THE PANHANDLES ON
THESE UPSLOPE WINDS. THE CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL HELP WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO WE ARE EXPECTING SOME FOG TO DEVELOP.

THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING FRIDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND IT SHOULD START TO BRING SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY
EVENING AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES.

THE MODELS DO HINT AT SOME POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN CONVECTION MOVING THIS
WAY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. HAVE NOT INSERTED ANY PRECIP CHANCES AT
THIS TIME AS THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN QUESTION.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EASTER WEEKEND. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE 20 PERCENT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE STRONGER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY AGAIN TICK UP AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/06






000
FXUS64 KAMA 180426
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1126 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES MAY POSSIBLY BECOME MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS
RETURNING FROM THE EAST AND FOG DEVELOPING BETWEEN 08Z TO 10Z
FRIDAY...AND 14Z TO 16Z FRIDAY MAINLY AT THE GUYMON AND AMARILLO TAF
SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY 16Z TO 18Z FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTHERLY 15 TO 25
KNOTS AFTER 15Z TO 16Z FRIDAY...AND THEN DIMINISHING AGAIN BY 02Z
SATURDAY TO AROUND 15 KNOTS.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
DRIER NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WHILE
A LIGHT MOIST UPSLOPE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WIND AROUND 5 TO
10 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
WITH THE DRIER AIR ALOFT AND LACK OF HIGHER CLOUDS AND THE MOIST
SURFACE WIND AND LOW CLOUDS...SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MAINLY THE
GUYMON AND AMARILLO TAF SITES AFTER 08Z TO 10Z FRIDAY AND THEN
LIFTING BY 15Z TO 16Z FRIDAY. CURRENT MVFR CEILINGS AT AMARILLO WILL
BECOME VFR BY 02Z FRIDAY BUT THEN MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING DUE
TO SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 1 TO 3
MILES MAINLY AT THE GUYMON AND AMARILLO TAF SITES BETWEEN 08Z TO 10Z
FRIDAY...AND 15Z TO 16Z FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BY 18Z
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS AFTER 16Z FRIDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN KANSAS AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL CAUSE THE NORTHEAST
WINDS TO SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT INTO THE PANHANDLES ON
THESE UPSLOPE WINDS. THE CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL HELP WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO WE ARE EXPECTING SOME FOG TO DEVELOP.

THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING FRIDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND IT SHOULD START TO BRING SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY
EVENING AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES.

THE MODELS DO HINT AT SOME POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN CONVECTION MOVING THIS
WAY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. HAVE NOT INSERTED ANY PRECIP CHANCES AT
THIS TIME AS THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN QUESTION.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EASTER WEEKEND. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE 20 PERCENT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE STRONGER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY AGAIN TICK UP AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/06







000
FXUS64 KAMA 172337
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
637 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
DRIER NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WHILE
A LIGHT MOIST UPSLOPE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WIND AROUND 5 TO
10 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
WITH THE DRIER AIR ALOFT AND LACK OF HIGHER CLOUDS AND THE MOIST
SURFACE WIND AND LOW CLOUDS...SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MAINLY THE
GUYMON AND AMARILLO TAF SITES AFTER 08Z TO 10Z FRIDAY AND THEN
LIFTING BY 15Z TO 16Z FRIDAY. CURRENT MVFR CEILINGS AT AMARILLO WILL
BECOME VFR BY 02Z FRIDAY BUT THEN MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING DUE
TO SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 1 TO 3
MILES MAINLY AT THE GUYMON AND AMARILLO TAF SITES BETWEEN 08Z TO 10Z
FRIDAY...AND 15Z TO 16Z FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BY 18Z
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS AFTER 16Z FRIDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN KANSAS AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL CAUSE THE NORTHEAST
WINDS TO SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT INTO THE PANHANDLES ON
THESE UPSLOPE WINDS. THE CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL HELP WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO WE ARE EXPECTING SOME FOG TO DEVELOP.

THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING FRIDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND IT SHOULD START TO BRING SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY
EVENING AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES.

THE MODELS DO HINT AT SOME POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN CONVECTION MOVING THIS
WAY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. HAVE NOT INSERTED ANY PRECIP CHANCES AT
THIS TIME AS THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN QUESTION.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EASTER WEEKEND. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE 20 PERCENT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE STRONGER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY AGAIN TICK UP AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/06







000
FXUS64 KAMA 172337
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
637 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
DRIER NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WHILE
A LIGHT MOIST UPSLOPE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WIND AROUND 5 TO
10 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
WITH THE DRIER AIR ALOFT AND LACK OF HIGHER CLOUDS AND THE MOIST
SURFACE WIND AND LOW CLOUDS...SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MAINLY THE
GUYMON AND AMARILLO TAF SITES AFTER 08Z TO 10Z FRIDAY AND THEN
LIFTING BY 15Z TO 16Z FRIDAY. CURRENT MVFR CEILINGS AT AMARILLO WILL
BECOME VFR BY 02Z FRIDAY BUT THEN MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING DUE
TO SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 1 TO 3
MILES MAINLY AT THE GUYMON AND AMARILLO TAF SITES BETWEEN 08Z TO 10Z
FRIDAY...AND 15Z TO 16Z FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BY 18Z
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS AFTER 16Z FRIDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN KANSAS AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL CAUSE THE NORTHEAST
WINDS TO SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT INTO THE PANHANDLES ON
THESE UPSLOPE WINDS. THE CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL HELP WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO WE ARE EXPECTING SOME FOG TO DEVELOP.

THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING FRIDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND IT SHOULD START TO BRING SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY
EVENING AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES.

THE MODELS DO HINT AT SOME POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN CONVECTION MOVING THIS
WAY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. HAVE NOT INSERTED ANY PRECIP CHANCES AT
THIS TIME AS THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN QUESTION.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EASTER WEEKEND. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE 20 PERCENT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE STRONGER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY AGAIN TICK UP AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/06






000
FXUS64 KAMA 172000
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
300 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN KANSAS AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL CAUSE THE NORTHEAST
WINDS TO SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT INTO THE PANHANDLES ON
THESE UPSLOPE WINDS. THE CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL HELP WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO WE ARE EXPECTING SOME FOG TO DEVELOP.

THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING FRIDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND IT SHOULD START TO BRING SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY
EVENING AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES.

THE MODELS DO HINT AT SOME POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN CONVECTION MOVING THIS
WAY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. HAVE NOT INSERTED ANY PRECIP CHANCES AT
THIS TIME AS THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN QUESTION.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EASTER WEEKEND. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE 20 PERCENT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE STRONGER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY AGAIN TICK UP AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                39  72  50  75  51 /   0   0  10  20  30
BEAVER OK                  41  74  50  82  55 /   0   0   5  30  30
BOISE CITY OK              38  77  50  76  48 /   0   0  10  20  30
BORGER TX                  45  74  54  79  55 /   0   0  10  20  30
BOYS RANCH TX              40  76  51  79  50 /   0   0  20  20  30
CANYON TX                  38  73  49  75  49 /   0   0  10  20  30
CLARENDON TX               43  71  50  74  55 /   0   0  10  30  30
DALHART TX                 36  75  47  76  47 /   0   0  20  20  30
GUYMON OK                  39  76  49  79  50 /   0   0  10  20  30
HEREFORD TX                38  73  50  75  48 /   0   0  20  20  30
LIPSCOMB TX                42  73  51  78  56 /   0   0   5  30  40
PAMPA TX                   42  71  49  74  54 /   0   0  10  30  30
SHAMROCK TX                44  69  50  76  55 /   0   0  10  30  40
WELLINGTON TX              46  70  51  76  56 /   0   0  10  30  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/15






000
FXUS64 KAMA 172000
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
300 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN KANSAS AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL CAUSE THE NORTHEAST
WINDS TO SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT INTO THE PANHANDLES ON
THESE UPSLOPE WINDS. THE CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL HELP WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO WE ARE EXPECTING SOME FOG TO DEVELOP.

THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING FRIDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND IT SHOULD START TO BRING SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY
EVENING AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES.

THE MODELS DO HINT AT SOME POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN CONVECTION MOVING THIS
WAY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. HAVE NOT INSERTED ANY PRECIP CHANCES AT
THIS TIME AS THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN QUESTION.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EASTER WEEKEND. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE 20 PERCENT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE STRONGER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY AGAIN TICK UP AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                39  72  50  75  51 /   0   0  10  20  30
BEAVER OK                  41  74  50  82  55 /   0   0   5  30  30
BOISE CITY OK              38  77  50  76  48 /   0   0  10  20  30
BORGER TX                  45  74  54  79  55 /   0   0  10  20  30
BOYS RANCH TX              40  76  51  79  50 /   0   0  20  20  30
CANYON TX                  38  73  49  75  49 /   0   0  10  20  30
CLARENDON TX               43  71  50  74  55 /   0   0  10  30  30
DALHART TX                 36  75  47  76  47 /   0   0  20  20  30
GUYMON OK                  39  76  49  79  50 /   0   0  10  20  30
HEREFORD TX                38  73  50  75  48 /   0   0  20  20  30
LIPSCOMB TX                42  73  51  78  56 /   0   0   5  30  40
PAMPA TX                   42  71  49  74  54 /   0   0  10  30  30
SHAMROCK TX                44  69  50  76  55 /   0   0  10  30  40
WELLINGTON TX              46  70  51  76  56 /   0   0  10  30  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/15





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