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000
FXUS64 KAMA 282356 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
556 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...SFC COLD FRONT MOVG ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE A
DRY ONE WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. PERIODS OF MAINLY MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FORESEEN THIS CYCLE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON...HELPING TO FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE THAT BROUGHT THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER TO THE AREA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. A
SURFACE TROUGH ALSO SLIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS RESULTED IN A
WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH. DESPITE THE LOWER MID AND UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND THE
MILD AIR MASS REMAINING IN PLACE...TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ONCE
AGAIN SOARED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. IN ADDITION WINDS
WERE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON FROM A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
COLDER AIR UPSTREAM WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA THURSDAY...KNOCKING
HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER EXPECT
LARGE SCALE LIFT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY.

CLK

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
HEIGHTS BEGIN FALLING ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. DEEPENS. MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON THE INFLUENCE OF
A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET OVER THE PANHANDLES.
UPSLOPE FLOW STARTS TO BRING IN CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY
MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...MORE LIKE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FURTHER NORTH. MORNING AND AFTERNOON
MODEL RUNS TRENDED A BIT DRIER THAN PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...SO THAT MAY ALSO CHANGE HOW THIS FORECAST EVOLVES. THE
TRICKIEST PART WILL BE PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH THIS EVENT.
FRIDAY STARTS OUT COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER MOST
OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES...ALL RAIN TO THE EAST
AS TEMPERATURES THERE WILL LIKELY REACH THE LOW 40S. OVERNIGHT MOST
AREAS SHOULD RETURN TO THE MID 30S OR LOWER AND ALLOW FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
TO THE EAST AND MORE LIKELY SNOW OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. THE
GREATEST LIFT AND INFLUENCE FROM THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVE ON SATURDAY
WHEN PRECIP CHANCES BECOME MORE LIKELY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURE BECOMES
THE KEY PLAYER HERE AND CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN LOW IN WHAT
THE MAIN PRECIP TYPE WILL BE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED QUITE A BIT WARMER
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON FOR SATURDAY/S HIGH TEMPS. AT THIS TIME
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLES BUT
IF THE WARMING/DRYING TREND OF TODAY/S RUNS CONTINUE...RAIN MAY
BECOME A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO FOR ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THE 12Z ECMWF DOES LINGER PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY
BUT FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO END THINGS SUNDAY MORNING. TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE EVENT RANGE BETWEEN A HALF TO 1 INCH IN THE
EASTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES AND 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER TEMPERATURE MAY BE THE BIGGEST FACTOR FOR THOSE SNOWFALL
TOTALS AS THE SYSTEM NEARS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH SHOULD BRING NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORKWEEK.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 282356 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
556 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...SFC COLD FRONT MOVG ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE A
DRY ONE WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. PERIODS OF MAINLY MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FORESEEN THIS CYCLE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON...HELPING TO FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE THAT BROUGHT THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER TO THE AREA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. A
SURFACE TROUGH ALSO SLIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS RESULTED IN A
WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH. DESPITE THE LOWER MID AND UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND THE
MILD AIR MASS REMAINING IN PLACE...TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ONCE
AGAIN SOARED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. IN ADDITION WINDS
WERE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON FROM A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
COLDER AIR UPSTREAM WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA THURSDAY...KNOCKING
HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER EXPECT
LARGE SCALE LIFT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY.

CLK

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
HEIGHTS BEGIN FALLING ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. DEEPENS. MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON THE INFLUENCE OF
A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET OVER THE PANHANDLES.
UPSLOPE FLOW STARTS TO BRING IN CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY
MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...MORE LIKE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FURTHER NORTH. MORNING AND AFTERNOON
MODEL RUNS TRENDED A BIT DRIER THAN PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...SO THAT MAY ALSO CHANGE HOW THIS FORECAST EVOLVES. THE
TRICKIEST PART WILL BE PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH THIS EVENT.
FRIDAY STARTS OUT COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER MOST
OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES...ALL RAIN TO THE EAST
AS TEMPERATURES THERE WILL LIKELY REACH THE LOW 40S. OVERNIGHT MOST
AREAS SHOULD RETURN TO THE MID 30S OR LOWER AND ALLOW FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
TO THE EAST AND MORE LIKELY SNOW OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. THE
GREATEST LIFT AND INFLUENCE FROM THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVE ON SATURDAY
WHEN PRECIP CHANCES BECOME MORE LIKELY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURE BECOMES
THE KEY PLAYER HERE AND CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN LOW IN WHAT
THE MAIN PRECIP TYPE WILL BE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED QUITE A BIT WARMER
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON FOR SATURDAY/S HIGH TEMPS. AT THIS TIME
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLES BUT
IF THE WARMING/DRYING TREND OF TODAY/S RUNS CONTINUE...RAIN MAY
BECOME A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO FOR ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THE 12Z ECMWF DOES LINGER PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY
BUT FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO END THINGS SUNDAY MORNING. TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE EVENT RANGE BETWEEN A HALF TO 1 INCH IN THE
EASTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES AND 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER TEMPERATURE MAY BE THE BIGGEST FACTOR FOR THOSE SNOWFALL
TOTALS AS THE SYSTEM NEARS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH SHOULD BRING NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORKWEEK.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 282304
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
504 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON...HELPING TO FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE THAT BROUGHT THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER TO THE AREA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. A
SURFACE TROUGH ALSO SLIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS RESULTED IN A
WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH. DESPITE THE LOWER MID AND UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND THE
MILD AIR MASS REMAINING IN PLACE...TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ONCE
AGAIN SOARED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. IN ADDITION WINDS
WERE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON FROM A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
COLDER AIR UPSTREAM WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA THURSDAY...KNOCKING
HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER EXPECT
LARGE SCALE LIFT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY.

CLK

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
HEIGHTS BEGIN FALLING ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. DEEPENS. MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON THE INFLUENCE OF
A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET OVER THE PANHANDLES.
UPSLOPE FLOW STARTS TO BRING IN CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY
MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...MORE LIKE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FURTHER NORTH. MORNING AND AFTERNOON
MODEL RUNS TRENDED A BIT DRIER THAN PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...SO THAT MAY ALSO CHANGE HOW THIS FORECAST EVOLVES. THE
TRICKIEST PART WILL BE PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH THIS EVENT.
FRIDAY STARTS OUT COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER MOST
OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES...ALL RAIN TO THE EAST
AS TEMPERATURES THERE WILL LIKELY REACH THE LOW 40S. OVERNIGHT MOST
AREAS SHOULD RETURN TO THE MID 30S OR LOWER AND ALLOW FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
TO THE EAST AND MORE LIKELY SNOW OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. THE
GREATEST LIFT AND INFLUENCE FROM THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVE ON SATURDAY
WHEN PRECIP CHANCES BECOME MORE LIKELY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURE BECOMES
THE KEY PLAYER HERE AND CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN LOW IN WHAT
THE MAIN PRECIP TYPE WILL BE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED QUITE A BIT WARMER
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON FOR SATURDAY/S HIGH TEMPS. AT THIS TIME
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLES BUT
IF THE WARMING/DRYING TREND OF TODAY/S RUNS CONTINUE...RAIN MAY
BECOME A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO FOR ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THE 12Z ECMWF DOES LINGER PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY
BUT FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO END THINGS SUNDAY MORNING. TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE EVENT RANGE BETWEEN A HALF TO 1 INCH IN THE
EASTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES AND 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER TEMPERATURE MAY BE THE BIGGEST FACTOR FOR THOSE SNOWFALL
TOTALS AS THE SYSTEM NEARS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH SHOULD BRING NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORKWEEK.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

ELSENHEIMER


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                38  50  29  37  29 /   0   0  10  60  60
BEAVER OK                  36  51  27  44  32 /   0   0   0  30  50
BOISE CITY OK              34  46  29  40  31 /   0   0   0  50  50
BORGER TX                  39  54  28  40  32 /   0   0   5  50  60
BOYS RANCH TX              37  53  29  38  30 /   0   0   5  60  60
CANYON TX                  38  50  29  37  29 /   0   0  10  60  60
CLARENDON TX               40  52  29  39  30 /   0   0   5  40  60
DALHART TX                 36  50  31  38  31 /   0   0   5  60  60
GUYMON OK                  37  49  31  44  32 /   0   0   0  40  50
HEREFORD TX                38  51  28  35  29 /   0   0  10  60  60
LIPSCOMB TX                42  50  30  43  34 /   0   0   0  30  50
PAMPA TX                   37  47  25  39  30 /   0   0   5  40  60
SHAMROCK TX                41  52  29  42  33 /   0   0   5  30  60
WELLINGTON TX              45  56  33  44  35 /   0   0   5  30  60

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

05/18






000
FXUS64 KAMA 282304
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
504 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON...HELPING TO FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE THAT BROUGHT THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER TO THE AREA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. A
SURFACE TROUGH ALSO SLIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS RESULTED IN A
WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH. DESPITE THE LOWER MID AND UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND THE
MILD AIR MASS REMAINING IN PLACE...TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ONCE
AGAIN SOARED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. IN ADDITION WINDS
WERE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON FROM A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
COLDER AIR UPSTREAM WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA THURSDAY...KNOCKING
HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER EXPECT
LARGE SCALE LIFT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY.

CLK

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
HEIGHTS BEGIN FALLING ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. DEEPENS. MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON THE INFLUENCE OF
A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET OVER THE PANHANDLES.
UPSLOPE FLOW STARTS TO BRING IN CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY
MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...MORE LIKE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FURTHER NORTH. MORNING AND AFTERNOON
MODEL RUNS TRENDED A BIT DRIER THAN PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...SO THAT MAY ALSO CHANGE HOW THIS FORECAST EVOLVES. THE
TRICKIEST PART WILL BE PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH THIS EVENT.
FRIDAY STARTS OUT COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER MOST
OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES...ALL RAIN TO THE EAST
AS TEMPERATURES THERE WILL LIKELY REACH THE LOW 40S. OVERNIGHT MOST
AREAS SHOULD RETURN TO THE MID 30S OR LOWER AND ALLOW FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
TO THE EAST AND MORE LIKELY SNOW OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. THE
GREATEST LIFT AND INFLUENCE FROM THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVE ON SATURDAY
WHEN PRECIP CHANCES BECOME MORE LIKELY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURE BECOMES
THE KEY PLAYER HERE AND CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN LOW IN WHAT
THE MAIN PRECIP TYPE WILL BE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED QUITE A BIT WARMER
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON FOR SATURDAY/S HIGH TEMPS. AT THIS TIME
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLES BUT
IF THE WARMING/DRYING TREND OF TODAY/S RUNS CONTINUE...RAIN MAY
BECOME A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO FOR ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THE 12Z ECMWF DOES LINGER PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY
BUT FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO END THINGS SUNDAY MORNING. TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE EVENT RANGE BETWEEN A HALF TO 1 INCH IN THE
EASTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES AND 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER TEMPERATURE MAY BE THE BIGGEST FACTOR FOR THOSE SNOWFALL
TOTALS AS THE SYSTEM NEARS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH SHOULD BRING NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORKWEEK.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

ELSENHEIMER


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                38  50  29  37  29 /   0   0  10  60  60
BEAVER OK                  36  51  27  44  32 /   0   0   0  30  50
BOISE CITY OK              34  46  29  40  31 /   0   0   0  50  50
BORGER TX                  39  54  28  40  32 /   0   0   5  50  60
BOYS RANCH TX              37  53  29  38  30 /   0   0   5  60  60
CANYON TX                  38  50  29  37  29 /   0   0  10  60  60
CLARENDON TX               40  52  29  39  30 /   0   0   5  40  60
DALHART TX                 36  50  31  38  31 /   0   0   5  60  60
GUYMON OK                  37  49  31  44  32 /   0   0   0  40  50
HEREFORD TX                38  51  28  35  29 /   0   0  10  60  60
LIPSCOMB TX                42  50  30  43  34 /   0   0   0  30  50
PAMPA TX                   37  47  25  39  30 /   0   0   5  40  60
SHAMROCK TX                41  52  29  42  33 /   0   0   5  30  60
WELLINGTON TX              45  56  33  44  35 /   0   0   5  30  60

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

05/18







000
FXUS64 KAMA 281744 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1144 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO OCCASIONALLY GUST TO AROUND 25 KT
THIS AFTERNOON...AND TO THEN DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LOWER THROUGH THE
EVENING AND MOST OF THE NIGHT.  SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME
NORTH BEFORE SUNRISE...AND TO COMMENCE GUSTING INTO THE 25 TO 30 KT
RANGE AFTER SUNRISE.  ONLY HIGH- AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY
AND TONIGHT.  NO OVERNIGHT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.  VFR
STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS FORECAST FOR KDHT AFTER 14Z THURSDAY AS COOL
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHWARD.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24
HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS TAF ISSUANCE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING AND SHIFT WINDS
FROM A WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR MAY BE AN ISSUE AT KGUY EARLY ON IN THIS TAF ISSUANCE BUT
SHOULD CLEAR PRIOR TO 18Z. WINDS REMAIN FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GET PUSHED DOWN A
LITTLE AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SOAR ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 60S AND 70S
AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND SUNSHINE COMPENSATE FOR THE FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL HELP TO SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
BRIEFLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
CHILLY SIDE AS UPSLOPE WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER TAKE OVER.
SOME PRECIPITATION WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY
AS A BROAD AREA OF LIFT ALONG WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST U.S.
THE LIFT IN THE DIFFLUENT REGION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL ACT TO
SHEAR OUT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SHUNT IT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A TOUGH CALL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY THE FURTHER WEST YOU GO IN THE
PANHANDLES...THE BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING FROZEN PRECIPITATION...
WHILE THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO...YOU WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT
SEEING LIQUID PRECIPITATION.

ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TURN OVER TO SNOW SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LOW LAYERS COOL DOWN BEHIND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

THE PRECIPITATION TYPE MAY BE CLOSELY TIED TO ELEVATION WITH THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST GETTING THE MOST SNOWFALL WITH THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST GETTING THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL.
WE HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A TAD AS THE MODELS ARE
COMING IN A LITTLE WARMER NEAR THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY EVENING. AT ANY RATE...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS MAY RANGE
FROM NEAR ONE INCH IN THE EAST TO ALMOST 4 INCHES NEAR THE NEW
MEXICO STATE LINE BY THE TIME IT IS ALL SAID AND DONE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN GO DRY FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AND TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM EACH DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/18






000
FXUS64 KAMA 281744 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1144 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO OCCASIONALLY GUST TO AROUND 25 KT
THIS AFTERNOON...AND TO THEN DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LOWER THROUGH THE
EVENING AND MOST OF THE NIGHT.  SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME
NORTH BEFORE SUNRISE...AND TO COMMENCE GUSTING INTO THE 25 TO 30 KT
RANGE AFTER SUNRISE.  ONLY HIGH- AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY
AND TONIGHT.  NO OVERNIGHT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.  VFR
STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS FORECAST FOR KDHT AFTER 14Z THURSDAY AS COOL
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHWARD.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24
HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS TAF ISSUANCE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING AND SHIFT WINDS
FROM A WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR MAY BE AN ISSUE AT KGUY EARLY ON IN THIS TAF ISSUANCE BUT
SHOULD CLEAR PRIOR TO 18Z. WINDS REMAIN FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GET PUSHED DOWN A
LITTLE AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SOAR ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 60S AND 70S
AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND SUNSHINE COMPENSATE FOR THE FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL HELP TO SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
BRIEFLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
CHILLY SIDE AS UPSLOPE WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER TAKE OVER.
SOME PRECIPITATION WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY
AS A BROAD AREA OF LIFT ALONG WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST U.S.
THE LIFT IN THE DIFFLUENT REGION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL ACT TO
SHEAR OUT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SHUNT IT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A TOUGH CALL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY THE FURTHER WEST YOU GO IN THE
PANHANDLES...THE BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING FROZEN PRECIPITATION...
WHILE THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO...YOU WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT
SEEING LIQUID PRECIPITATION.

ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TURN OVER TO SNOW SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LOW LAYERS COOL DOWN BEHIND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

THE PRECIPITATION TYPE MAY BE CLOSELY TIED TO ELEVATION WITH THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST GETTING THE MOST SNOWFALL WITH THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST GETTING THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL.
WE HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A TAD AS THE MODELS ARE
COMING IN A LITTLE WARMER NEAR THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY EVENING. AT ANY RATE...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS MAY RANGE
FROM NEAR ONE INCH IN THE EAST TO ALMOST 4 INCHES NEAR THE NEW
MEXICO STATE LINE BY THE TIME IT IS ALL SAID AND DONE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN GO DRY FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AND TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM EACH DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/18







000
FXUS64 KAMA 281130
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
530 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS TAF ISSUANCE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING AND SHIFT WINDS
FROM A WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR MAY BE AN ISSUE AT KGUY EARLY ON IN THIS TAF ISSUANCE BUT
SHOULD CLEAR PRIOR TO 18Z. WINDS REMAIN FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GET PUSHED DOWN A
LITTLE AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SOAR ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 60S AND 70S
AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND SUNSHINE COMPENSATE FOR THE FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL HELP TO SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
BRIEFLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
CHILLY SIDE AS UPSLOPE WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER TAKE OVER.
SOME PRECIPITATION WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY
AS A BROAD AREA OF LIFT ALONG WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST U.S.
THE LIFT IN THE DIFFLUENT REGION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL ACT TO
SHEAR OUT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SHUNT IT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A TOUGH CALL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY THE FURTHER WEST YOU GO IN THE
PANHANDLES...THE BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING FROZEN PRECIPITATION...
WHILE THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO...YOU WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT
SEEING LIQUID PRECIPITATION.

ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TURN OVER TO SNOW SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LOW LAYERS COOL DOWN BEHIND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

THE PRECIPITATION TYPE MAY BE CLOSELY TIED TO ELEVATION WITH THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST GETTING THE MOST SNOWFALL WITH THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST GETTING THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL.
WE HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A TAD AS THE MODELS ARE
COMING IN A LITTLE WARMER NEAR THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY EVENING. AT ANY RATE...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS MAY RANGE
FROM NEAR ONE INCH IN THE EAST TO ALMOST 4 INCHES NEAR THE NEW
MEXICO STATE LINE BY THE TIME IT IS ALL SAID AND DONE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN GO DRY FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AND TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM EACH DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/15






000
FXUS64 KAMA 281130
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
530 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS TAF ISSUANCE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING AND SHIFT WINDS
FROM A WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR MAY BE AN ISSUE AT KGUY EARLY ON IN THIS TAF ISSUANCE BUT
SHOULD CLEAR PRIOR TO 18Z. WINDS REMAIN FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GET PUSHED DOWN A
LITTLE AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SOAR ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 60S AND 70S
AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND SUNSHINE COMPENSATE FOR THE FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL HELP TO SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
BRIEFLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
CHILLY SIDE AS UPSLOPE WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER TAKE OVER.
SOME PRECIPITATION WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY
AS A BROAD AREA OF LIFT ALONG WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST U.S.
THE LIFT IN THE DIFFLUENT REGION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL ACT TO
SHEAR OUT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SHUNT IT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A TOUGH CALL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY THE FURTHER WEST YOU GO IN THE
PANHANDLES...THE BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING FROZEN PRECIPITATION...
WHILE THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO...YOU WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT
SEEING LIQUID PRECIPITATION.

ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TURN OVER TO SNOW SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LOW LAYERS COOL DOWN BEHIND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

THE PRECIPITATION TYPE MAY BE CLOSELY TIED TO ELEVATION WITH THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST GETTING THE MOST SNOWFALL WITH THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST GETTING THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL.
WE HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A TAD AS THE MODELS ARE
COMING IN A LITTLE WARMER NEAR THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY EVENING. AT ANY RATE...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS MAY RANGE
FROM NEAR ONE INCH IN THE EAST TO ALMOST 4 INCHES NEAR THE NEW
MEXICO STATE LINE BY THE TIME IT IS ALL SAID AND DONE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN GO DRY FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AND TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM EACH DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/15







000
FXUS64 KAMA 280852
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
252 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GET PUSHED DOWN A
LITTLE AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SOAR ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 60S AND 70S
AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND SUNSHINE COMPENSATE FOR THE FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL HELP TO SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
BRIEFLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
CHILLY SIDE AS UPSLOPE WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER TAKE OVER.
SOME PRECIPITATION WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY
AS A BROAD AREA OF LIFT ALONG WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST U.S.
THE LIFT IN THE DIFFLUENT REGION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL ACT TO
SHEAR OUT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SHUNT IT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A TOUGH CALL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY THE FURTHER WEST YOU GO IN THE
PANHANDLES...THE BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING FROZEN PRECIPITATION...
WHILE THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO...YOU WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT
SEEING LIQUID PRECIPITATION.

ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TURN OVER TO SNOW SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LOW LAYERS COOL DOWN BEHIND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

THE PRECIPITATION TYPE MAY BE CLOSELY TIED TO ELEVATION WITH THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST GETTING THE MOST SNOWFALL WITH THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST GETTING THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL.
WE HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A TAD AS THE MODELS ARE
COMING IN A LITTLE WARMER NEAR THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY EVENING. AT ANY RATE...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS MAY RANGE
FROM NEAR ONE INCH IN THE EAST TO ALMOST 4 INCHES NEAR THE NEW
MEXICO STATE LINE BY THE TIME IT IS ALL SAID AND DONE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN GO DRY FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AND TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM EACH DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                71  37  53  32  38 /   0   0   0   5  50
BEAVER OK                  77  37  55  29  42 /   0   0   0   0  20
BOISE CITY OK              68  35  50  31  37 /   0   0   0   0  50
BORGER TX                  74  42  56  34  37 /   0   0   0   5  40
BOYS RANCH TX              72  36  54  32  37 /   0   0   0   5  50
CANYON TX                  71  36  53  32  39 /   0   0   0  10  50
CLARENDON TX               75  41  57  34  45 /   0   0   0   0  40
DALHART TX                 70  37  53  33  36 /   0   0   0   5  60
GUYMON OK                  73  37  54  32  41 /   0   0   0   0  40
HEREFORD TX                72  36  54  31  38 /   0   0   0  10  60
LIPSCOMB TX                76  43  55  34  44 /   0   0   0   0  20
PAMPA TX                   72  39  54  31  41 /   0   0   0   0  40
SHAMROCK TX                76  43  58  34  44 /   0   0   0   0  30
WELLINGTON TX              79  47  61  38  47 /   0   0   0   0  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/15





000
FXUS64 KAMA 280852
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
252 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GET PUSHED DOWN A
LITTLE AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SOAR ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 60S AND 70S
AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND SUNSHINE COMPENSATE FOR THE FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL HELP TO SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
BRIEFLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
CHILLY SIDE AS UPSLOPE WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER TAKE OVER.
SOME PRECIPITATION WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY
AS A BROAD AREA OF LIFT ALONG WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST U.S.
THE LIFT IN THE DIFFLUENT REGION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL ACT TO
SHEAR OUT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SHUNT IT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A TOUGH CALL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY THE FURTHER WEST YOU GO IN THE
PANHANDLES...THE BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING FROZEN PRECIPITATION...
WHILE THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO...YOU WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT
SEEING LIQUID PRECIPITATION.

ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TURN OVER TO SNOW SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LOW LAYERS COOL DOWN BEHIND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

THE PRECIPITATION TYPE MAY BE CLOSELY TIED TO ELEVATION WITH THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST GETTING THE MOST SNOWFALL WITH THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST GETTING THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL.
WE HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A TAD AS THE MODELS ARE
COMING IN A LITTLE WARMER NEAR THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY EVENING. AT ANY RATE...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS MAY RANGE
FROM NEAR ONE INCH IN THE EAST TO ALMOST 4 INCHES NEAR THE NEW
MEXICO STATE LINE BY THE TIME IT IS ALL SAID AND DONE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN GO DRY FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AND TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM EACH DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                71  37  53  32  38 /   0   0   0   5  50
BEAVER OK                  77  37  55  29  42 /   0   0   0   0  20
BOISE CITY OK              68  35  50  31  37 /   0   0   0   0  50
BORGER TX                  74  42  56  34  37 /   0   0   0   5  40
BOYS RANCH TX              72  36  54  32  37 /   0   0   0   5  50
CANYON TX                  71  36  53  32  39 /   0   0   0  10  50
CLARENDON TX               75  41  57  34  45 /   0   0   0   0  40
DALHART TX                 70  37  53  33  36 /   0   0   0   5  60
GUYMON OK                  73  37  54  32  41 /   0   0   0   0  40
HEREFORD TX                72  36  54  31  38 /   0   0   0  10  60
LIPSCOMB TX                76  43  55  34  44 /   0   0   0   0  20
PAMPA TX                   72  39  54  31  41 /   0   0   0   0  40
SHAMROCK TX                76  43  58  34  44 /   0   0   0   0  30
WELLINGTON TX              79  47  61  38  47 /   0   0   0   0  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/15






000
FXUS64 KAMA 280548 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1148 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS AVIATION AFD REASONING.
SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL SITES LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALSO
ANTICIPATED. NO PRECIPITATION DURG THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OVERALL...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL SITES
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED. NO PRECIPITATION DURG THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  ONE MORE WARM DAY
ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE EFFECTS OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COLD FRONT BRING
MAXIMA BACK TO VALUES NEAR CLIMO ON THURSDAY.  NOTABLY COOLER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH DAILY MAXIMA MOSTLY
IN THE 30S.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...WITH CLOUDS AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING THEREAFTER THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...DEEP MOISTURE IS SET IN AN UPWARD MOTION AS SOUTHWEST
MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE DIVERGENT AND ENERGIZED.  HAVE
CONTINUED WITH HEFTY POPS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH LOW POPS
SATURDAY NIGHT.  PASSAGE OF MID-LEVEL TROF KEEPS LATER PERIODS DRY.

HAVE MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST.
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS STILL LOOK TO REMAIN ALL LIQUID THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT HAVE ADDED POSSIBILITY OF SNOW FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS STILL LOOK TO BE ALL SNOW BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE BROUGHT ALL SNOW INTO SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.  STILL REMAINS DIFFICULT TO
PIN DOWN LARGE SWATH ENCOMPASSING REMAINING SECTIONS...BUT HAVE
BROUGHT TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW THROUGH WESTERN HALF OF FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.  CURRENT SNOWFALL TOTALS OF ONE TO FOUR INCHES
ARE FORECAST NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM HEREFORD TO BORGER TO BEAVER.
FURTHER REFINEMENTS WILL BE MADE AS SYSTEM BECOMES BETTER SAMPLED
BY UPPER AIR NETWORK.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 280548 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1148 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS AVIATION AFD REASONING.
SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL SITES LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALSO
ANTICIPATED. NO PRECIPITATION DURG THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OVERALL...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL SITES
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED. NO PRECIPITATION DURG THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  ONE MORE WARM DAY
ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE EFFECTS OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COLD FRONT BRING
MAXIMA BACK TO VALUES NEAR CLIMO ON THURSDAY.  NOTABLY COOLER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH DAILY MAXIMA MOSTLY
IN THE 30S.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...WITH CLOUDS AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING THEREAFTER THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...DEEP MOISTURE IS SET IN AN UPWARD MOTION AS SOUTHWEST
MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE DIVERGENT AND ENERGIZED.  HAVE
CONTINUED WITH HEFTY POPS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH LOW POPS
SATURDAY NIGHT.  PASSAGE OF MID-LEVEL TROF KEEPS LATER PERIODS DRY.

HAVE MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST.
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS STILL LOOK TO REMAIN ALL LIQUID THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT HAVE ADDED POSSIBILITY OF SNOW FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS STILL LOOK TO BE ALL SNOW BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE BROUGHT ALL SNOW INTO SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.  STILL REMAINS DIFFICULT TO
PIN DOWN LARGE SWATH ENCOMPASSING REMAINING SECTIONS...BUT HAVE
BROUGHT TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW THROUGH WESTERN HALF OF FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.  CURRENT SNOWFALL TOTALS OF ONE TO FOUR INCHES
ARE FORECAST NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM HEREFORD TO BORGER TO BEAVER.
FURTHER REFINEMENTS WILL BE MADE AS SYSTEM BECOMES BETTER SAMPLED
BY UPPER AIR NETWORK.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 272333 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
533 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL SITES
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED. NO PRECIPITATION DURG THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  ONE MORE WARM DAY
ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE EFFECTS OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COLD FRONT BRING
MAXIMA BACK TO VALUES NEAR CLIMO ON THURSDAY.  NOTABLY COOLER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH DAILY MAXIMA MOSTLY
IN THE 30S.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...WITH CLOUDS AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING THEREAFTER THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...DEEP MOISTURE IS SET IN AN UPWARD MOTION AS SOUTHWEST
MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE DIVERGENT AND ENERGIZED.  HAVE
CONTINUED WITH HEFTY POPS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH LOW POPS
SATURDAY NIGHT.  PASSAGE OF MID-LEVEL TROF KEEPS LATER PERIODS DRY.

HAVE MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST.
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS STILL LOOK TO REMAIN ALL LIQUID THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT HAVE ADDED POSSIBILITY OF SNOW FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS STILL LOOK TO BE ALL SNOW BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE BROUGHT ALL SNOW INTO SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.  STILL REMAINS DIFFICULT TO
PIN DOWN LARGE SWATH ENCOMPASSING REMAINING SECTIONS...BUT HAVE
BROUGHT TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW THROUGH WESTERN HALF OF FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.  CURRENT SNOWFALL TOTALS OF ONE TO FOUR INCHES
ARE FORECAST NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM HEREFORD TO BORGER TO BEAVER.
FURTHER REFINEMENTS WILL BE MADE AS SYSTEM BECOMES BETTER SAMPLED
BY UPPER AIR NETWORK.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 272333 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
533 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL SITES
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED. NO PRECIPITATION DURG THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  ONE MORE WARM DAY
ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE EFFECTS OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COLD FRONT BRING
MAXIMA BACK TO VALUES NEAR CLIMO ON THURSDAY.  NOTABLY COOLER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH DAILY MAXIMA MOSTLY
IN THE 30S.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...WITH CLOUDS AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING THEREAFTER THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...DEEP MOISTURE IS SET IN AN UPWARD MOTION AS SOUTHWEST
MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE DIVERGENT AND ENERGIZED.  HAVE
CONTINUED WITH HEFTY POPS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH LOW POPS
SATURDAY NIGHT.  PASSAGE OF MID-LEVEL TROF KEEPS LATER PERIODS DRY.

HAVE MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST.
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS STILL LOOK TO REMAIN ALL LIQUID THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT HAVE ADDED POSSIBILITY OF SNOW FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS STILL LOOK TO BE ALL SNOW BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE BROUGHT ALL SNOW INTO SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.  STILL REMAINS DIFFICULT TO
PIN DOWN LARGE SWATH ENCOMPASSING REMAINING SECTIONS...BUT HAVE
BROUGHT TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW THROUGH WESTERN HALF OF FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.  CURRENT SNOWFALL TOTALS OF ONE TO FOUR INCHES
ARE FORECAST NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM HEREFORD TO BORGER TO BEAVER.
FURTHER REFINEMENTS WILL BE MADE AS SYSTEM BECOMES BETTER SAMPLED
BY UPPER AIR NETWORK.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 272146
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
330 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  ONE MORE WARM DAY
ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE EFFECTS OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COLD FRONT BRING
MAXIMA BACK TO VALUES NEAR CLIMO ON THURSDAY.  NOTABLY COOLER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH DAILY MAXIMA MOSTLY
IN THE 30S.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...WITH CLOUDS AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING THEREAFTER THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...DEEP MOISTURE IS SET IN AN UPWARD MOTION AS SOUTHWEST
MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE DIVERGENT AND ENERGIZED.  HAVE
CONTINUED WITH HEFTY POPS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH LOW POPS
SATURDAY NIGHT.  PASSAGE OF MID-LEVEL TROF KEEPS LATER PERIODS DRY.

HAVE MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST.
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS STILL LOOK TO REMAIN ALL LIQUID THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT HAVE ADDED POSSIBILITY OF SNOW FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS STILL LOOK TO BE ALL SNOW BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE BROUGHT ALL SNOW INTO SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.  STILL REMAINS DIFFICULT TO
PIN DOWN LARGE SWATH ENCOMPASSING REMAINING SECTIONS...BUT HAVE
BROUGHT TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW THROUGH WESTERN HALF OF FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.  CURRENT SNOWFALL TOTALS OF ONE TO FOUR INCHES
ARE FORECAST NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM HEREFORD TO BORGER TO BEAVER.
FURTHER REFINEMENTS WILL BE MADE AS SYSTEM BECOMES BETTER SAMPLED
BY UPPER AIR NETWORK.

COCKRELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                42  71  36  52  29 /   0   0   0   0  10
BEAVER OK                  37  74  35  53  28 /   0   0   0   0   5
BOISE CITY OK              39  67  33  49  29 /   0   0   0   0   5
BORGER TX                  45  73  39  54  31 /   0   0   0   0   5
BOYS RANCH TX              41  71  33  52  30 /   0   0   0   0  10
CANYON TX                  41  71  36  52  30 /   0   0   0   0  10
CLARENDON TX               44  74  39  56  31 /   0   0   0   0   5
DALHART TX                 34  69  32  51  30 /   0   0   0   0  10
GUYMON OK                  37  72  35  52  30 /   0   0   0   0   5
HEREFORD TX                42  71  35  53  30 /   0   0   0   0  10
LIPSCOMB TX                41  73  38  54  30 /   0   0   0   0   5
PAMPA TX                   40  70  35  52  29 /   0   0   0   0   5
SHAMROCK TX                41  75  39  56  32 /   0   0   0   0   5
WELLINGTON TX              42  78  40  59  34 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

18/03





000
FXUS64 KAMA 272146
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
330 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  ONE MORE WARM DAY
ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE EFFECTS OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COLD FRONT BRING
MAXIMA BACK TO VALUES NEAR CLIMO ON THURSDAY.  NOTABLY COOLER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH DAILY MAXIMA MOSTLY
IN THE 30S.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...WITH CLOUDS AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING THEREAFTER THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...DEEP MOISTURE IS SET IN AN UPWARD MOTION AS SOUTHWEST
MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE DIVERGENT AND ENERGIZED.  HAVE
CONTINUED WITH HEFTY POPS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH LOW POPS
SATURDAY NIGHT.  PASSAGE OF MID-LEVEL TROF KEEPS LATER PERIODS DRY.

HAVE MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST.
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS STILL LOOK TO REMAIN ALL LIQUID THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT HAVE ADDED POSSIBILITY OF SNOW FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS STILL LOOK TO BE ALL SNOW BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE BROUGHT ALL SNOW INTO SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.  STILL REMAINS DIFFICULT TO
PIN DOWN LARGE SWATH ENCOMPASSING REMAINING SECTIONS...BUT HAVE
BROUGHT TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW THROUGH WESTERN HALF OF FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.  CURRENT SNOWFALL TOTALS OF ONE TO FOUR INCHES
ARE FORECAST NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM HEREFORD TO BORGER TO BEAVER.
FURTHER REFINEMENTS WILL BE MADE AS SYSTEM BECOMES BETTER SAMPLED
BY UPPER AIR NETWORK.

COCKRELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                42  71  36  52  29 /   0   0   0   0  10
BEAVER OK                  37  74  35  53  28 /   0   0   0   0   5
BOISE CITY OK              39  67  33  49  29 /   0   0   0   0   5
BORGER TX                  45  73  39  54  31 /   0   0   0   0   5
BOYS RANCH TX              41  71  33  52  30 /   0   0   0   0  10
CANYON TX                  41  71  36  52  30 /   0   0   0   0  10
CLARENDON TX               44  74  39  56  31 /   0   0   0   0   5
DALHART TX                 34  69  32  51  30 /   0   0   0   0  10
GUYMON OK                  37  72  35  52  30 /   0   0   0   0   5
HEREFORD TX                42  71  35  53  30 /   0   0   0   0  10
LIPSCOMB TX                41  73  38  54  30 /   0   0   0   0   5
PAMPA TX                   40  70  35  52  29 /   0   0   0   0   5
SHAMROCK TX                41  75  39  56  32 /   0   0   0   0   5
WELLINGTON TX              42  78  40  59  34 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

18/03






000
FXUS64 KAMA 271736
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1136 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES...WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR GUSTS NEAR 20KTS OVER THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND FAR NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON.
ANY GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH NEAR SUNSET.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE FOCUS REMAINS ON THE FRI-SAT SYSTEM AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TRY TO
CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION. ENJOY THE NICE WEATHER TODAY AND TOMORROW
THOUGH BEFORE A COLD FRONT WED NIGHT BRINGS US BACK DOWN TO EARTH.

TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...
H85 MIX DOWN TECHNIQUES YIELD READINGS IN THE 70S FOR MOST TODAY,
WITH ERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES POSSIBLY PUSHING INTO THE UPR
70S. WED MAY BE JUST A TOUCH COOLER...BUT A WEAK SLOW MOVING FRONT
IN THE AREA WILL LIKELY ALLOW WINDS TO BE QUITE CALM BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR THU MORNING. HIGHS THU WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND
60 SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
CONTINUED TRENDS OF UPPING PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM. GOOD
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ASCENT ALONG THE 300K THETA SFC SHOULD RESULT
IN A SHIELD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM
THE SW BEGINNING FRI MORNING AND LASTING INTO THE DAY ON SAT. PTYPE
REMAINS A CONCERN AND MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN
THE LOW LVLS FOR FRI BUT ARE ACTUALLY WARMER NOW ON SATURDAY AS A
SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND PULLS UP SOME WARMER
AIR.

IT APPEARS THE SE TX PANHANDLE WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY RAIN AND NW
SECTIONS OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES WILL SEE MAINLY SNOW, BUT THE
PROBLEM WILL BE WITH FORECASTING THE EXACT SW TO NE LINE THAT
SEPARATES SNOW FROM RAIN. IF WE HAD TO GUESS RIGHT NOW, IT SEEMS AS
THOUGH THAT LINE WILL RUN FROM ROUGHLY VEGA TO DUMAS TO GUYMON.
AREAS TO THE SE OF WHEREVER THIS MAGIC LINE SETS UP MAY SEE SOME
SNOW, BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL PROBABLY BE HARD TO COME BY. AREAS TO
THE NW WILL SEE SNOW, BUT PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE
LESS THAT DIRECTION THAN THOSE FURTHER SE.

THE REASON RAIN IS MORE LIKELY IN THE SE HALF OF THE PANHANDLES IS A
NEAR SFC WARM LAYER THAT COULD MELT FLAKES JUST BEFORE THEY REACH
THE SFC. LOW LVL WARM AIR WILL BE INHERENTLY SHALLOWER IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WRN PANHANDLES WHICH IS WHY WE THINK THESE AREAS WILL
BE PREDOMINATELY SNOW. RIGHT NOW AMARILLO IS RIGHT ON THE CUTOFF
LINE. IF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE IS FURTHER NW, JUST RAIN FOR AMARILLO.
HOWEVER...IF IT SETS UP FURTHER SE, WE`LL HAVE TO LOOK OUT BECAUSE
IT APPEARS A GOOD 0.5" TO 1" OF LIQUID IS POSSIBLE. IF YOU`RE STILL
READING THIS DEEP IN THE DISCUSSION YOU PROBABLY KNOW HOW AN INCH OF
LIQUID CONVERTS TO SNOWFALL AT 10:1. RIGHT NOW WE`RE BETTING AGAINST
THAT SCENARIO, BUT WE`LL KEEP OUR EYE ON IT FOR SURE AS THE EVENT
NEARS. ANY PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE PEELING OUT TO THE EAST
BY SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
COOL TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

18/03







000
FXUS64 KAMA 271112
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
512 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT FROM A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. KGUY MAY SEE SOME
GUSTS UP TO 20KT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENING ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS. THESE GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE FOCUS REMAINS ON THE FRI-SAT SYSTEM AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TRY TO
CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION. ENJOY THE NICE WEATHER TODAY AND TOMORROW
THOUGH BEFORE A COLD FRONT WED NIGHT BRINGS US BACK DOWN TO EARTH.

TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...
H85 MIX DOWN TECHNIQUES YIELD READINGS IN THE 70S FOR MOST TODAY,
WITH ERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES POSSIBLY PUSHING INTO THE UPR
70S. WED MAY BE JUST A TOUCH COOLER...BUT A WEAK SLOW MOVING FRONT
IN THE AREA WILL LIKELY ALLOW WINDS TO BE QUITE CALM BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR THU MORNING. HIGHS THU WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND
60 SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
CONTINUED TRENDS OF UPPING PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM. GOOD
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ASCENT ALONG THE 300K THETA SFC SHOULD RESULT
IN A SHIELD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM
THE SW BEGINNING FRI MORNING AND LASTING INTO THE DAY ON SAT. PTYPE
REMAINS A CONCERN AND MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN
THE LOW LVLS FOR FRI BUT ARE ACTUALLY WARMER NOW ON SATURDAY AS A
SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND PULLS UP SOME WARMER
AIR.

IT APPEARS THE SE TX PANHANDLE WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY RAIN AND NW
SECTIONS OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES WILL SEE MAINLY SNOW, BUT THE
PROBLEM WILL BE WITH FORECASTING THE EXACT SW TO NE LINE THAT
SEPARATES SNOW FROM RAIN. IF WE HAD TO GUESS RIGHT NOW, IT SEEMS AS
THOUGH THAT LINE WILL RUN FROM ROUGHLY VEGA TO DUMAS TO GUYMON.
AREAS TO THE SE OF WHEREVER THIS MAGIC LINE SETS UP MAY SEE SOME
SNOW, BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL PROBABLY BE HARD TO COME BY. AREAS TO
THE NW WILL SEE SNOW, BUT PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE
LESS THAT DIRECTION THAN THOSE FURTHER SE.

THE REASON RAIN IS MORE LIKELY IN THE SE HALF OF THE PANHANDLES IS A
NEAR SFC WARM LAYER THAT COULD MELT FLAKES JUST BEFORE THEY REACH
THE SFC. LOW LVL WARM AIR WILL BE INHERENTLY SHALLOWER IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WRN PANHANDLES WHICH IS WHY WE THINK THESE AREAS WILL
BE PREDOMINATELY SNOW. RIGHT NOW AMARILLO IS RIGHT ON THE CUTOFF
LINE. IF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE IS FURTHER NW, JUST RAIN FOR AMARILLO.
HOWEVER...IF IT SETS UP FURTHER SE, WE`LL HAVE TO LOOK OUT BECAUSE
IT APPEARS A GOOD 0.5" TO 1" OF LIQUID IS POSSIBLE. IF YOU`RE STILL
READING THIS DEEP IN THE DISCUSSION YOU PROBABLY KNOW HOW AN INCH OF
LIQUID CONVERTS TO SNOWFALL AT 10:1. RIGHT NOW WE`RE BETTING AGAINST
THAT SCENARIO, BUT WE`LL KEEP OUR EYE ON IT FOR SURE AS THE EVENT
NEARS. ANY PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE PEELING OUT TO THE EAST
BY SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
COOL TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/09






000
FXUS64 KAMA 271112
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
512 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT FROM A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. KGUY MAY SEE SOME
GUSTS UP TO 20KT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENING ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS. THESE GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE FOCUS REMAINS ON THE FRI-SAT SYSTEM AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TRY TO
CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION. ENJOY THE NICE WEATHER TODAY AND TOMORROW
THOUGH BEFORE A COLD FRONT WED NIGHT BRINGS US BACK DOWN TO EARTH.

TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...
H85 MIX DOWN TECHNIQUES YIELD READINGS IN THE 70S FOR MOST TODAY,
WITH ERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES POSSIBLY PUSHING INTO THE UPR
70S. WED MAY BE JUST A TOUCH COOLER...BUT A WEAK SLOW MOVING FRONT
IN THE AREA WILL LIKELY ALLOW WINDS TO BE QUITE CALM BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR THU MORNING. HIGHS THU WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND
60 SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
CONTINUED TRENDS OF UPPING PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM. GOOD
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ASCENT ALONG THE 300K THETA SFC SHOULD RESULT
IN A SHIELD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM
THE SW BEGINNING FRI MORNING AND LASTING INTO THE DAY ON SAT. PTYPE
REMAINS A CONCERN AND MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN
THE LOW LVLS FOR FRI BUT ARE ACTUALLY WARMER NOW ON SATURDAY AS A
SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND PULLS UP SOME WARMER
AIR.

IT APPEARS THE SE TX PANHANDLE WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY RAIN AND NW
SECTIONS OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES WILL SEE MAINLY SNOW, BUT THE
PROBLEM WILL BE WITH FORECASTING THE EXACT SW TO NE LINE THAT
SEPARATES SNOW FROM RAIN. IF WE HAD TO GUESS RIGHT NOW, IT SEEMS AS
THOUGH THAT LINE WILL RUN FROM ROUGHLY VEGA TO DUMAS TO GUYMON.
AREAS TO THE SE OF WHEREVER THIS MAGIC LINE SETS UP MAY SEE SOME
SNOW, BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL PROBABLY BE HARD TO COME BY. AREAS TO
THE NW WILL SEE SNOW, BUT PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE
LESS THAT DIRECTION THAN THOSE FURTHER SE.

THE REASON RAIN IS MORE LIKELY IN THE SE HALF OF THE PANHANDLES IS A
NEAR SFC WARM LAYER THAT COULD MELT FLAKES JUST BEFORE THEY REACH
THE SFC. LOW LVL WARM AIR WILL BE INHERENTLY SHALLOWER IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WRN PANHANDLES WHICH IS WHY WE THINK THESE AREAS WILL
BE PREDOMINATELY SNOW. RIGHT NOW AMARILLO IS RIGHT ON THE CUTOFF
LINE. IF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE IS FURTHER NW, JUST RAIN FOR AMARILLO.
HOWEVER...IF IT SETS UP FURTHER SE, WE`LL HAVE TO LOOK OUT BECAUSE
IT APPEARS A GOOD 0.5" TO 1" OF LIQUID IS POSSIBLE. IF YOU`RE STILL
READING THIS DEEP IN THE DISCUSSION YOU PROBABLY KNOW HOW AN INCH OF
LIQUID CONVERTS TO SNOWFALL AT 10:1. RIGHT NOW WE`RE BETTING AGAINST
THAT SCENARIO, BUT WE`LL KEEP OUR EYE ON IT FOR SURE AS THE EVENT
NEARS. ANY PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE PEELING OUT TO THE EAST
BY SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
COOL TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/09







000
FXUS64 KAMA 271000
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
400 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE FOCUS REMAINS ON THE FRI-SAT SYSTEM AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TRY TO
CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION. ENJOY THE NICE WEATHER TODAY AND TOMORROW
THOUGH BEFORE A COLD FRONT WED NIGHT BRINGS US BACK DOWN TO EARTH.

TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...
H85 MIX DOWN TECHNIQUES YIELD READINGS IN THE 70S FOR MOST TODAY,
WITH ERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES POSSIBLY PUSHING INTO THE UPR
70S. WED MAY BE JUST A TOUCH COOLER...BUT A WEAK SLOW MOVING FRONT
IN THE AREA WILL LIKELY ALLOW WINDS TO BE QUITE CALM BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR THU MORNING. HIGHS THU WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND
60 SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
CONTINUED TRENDS OF UPPING PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM. GOOD
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ASCENT ALONG THE 300K THETA SFC SHOULD RESULT
IN A SHIELD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM
THE SW BEGINNING FRI MORNING AND LASTING INTO THE DAY ON SAT. PTYPE
REMAINS A CONCERN AND MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN
THE LOW LVLS FOR FRI BUT ARE ACTUALLY WARMER NOW ON SATURDAY AS A
SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND PULLS UP SOME WARMER
AIR.

IT APPEARS THE SE TX PANHANDLE WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY RAIN AND NW
SECTIONS OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES WILL SEE MAINLY SNOW, BUT THE
PROBLEM WILL BE WITH FORECASTING THE EXACT SW TO NE LINE THAT
SEPARATES SNOW FROM RAIN. IF WE HAD TO GUESS RIGHT NOW, IT SEEMS AS
THOUGH THAT LINE WILL RUN FROM ROUGHLY VEGA TO DUMAS TO GUYMON.
AREAS TO THE SE OF WHEREVER THIS MAGIC LINE SETS UP MAY SEE SOME
SNOW, BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL PROBABLY BE HARD TO COME BY. AREAS TO
THE NW WILL SEE SNOW, BUT PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE
LESS THAT DIRECTION THAN THOSE FURTHER SE.

THE REASON RAIN IS MORE LIKELY IN THE SE HALF OF THE PANHANDLES IS A
NEAR SFC WARM LAYER THAT COULD MELT FLAKES JUST BEFORE THEY REACH
THE SFC. LOW LVL WARM AIR WILL BE INHERENTLY SHALLOWER IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WRN PANHANDLES WHICH IS WHY WE THINK THESE AREAS WILL
BE PREDOMINATELY SNOW. RIGHT NOW AMARILLO IS RIGHT ON THE CUTOFF
LINE. IF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE IS FURTHER NW, JUST RAIN FOR AMARILLO.
HOWEVER...IF IT SETS UP FURTHER SE, WE`LL HAVE TO LOOK OUT BECAUSE
IT APPEARS A GOOD 0.5" TO 1" OF LIQUID IS POSSIBLE. IF YOU`RE STILL
READING THIS DEEP IN THE DISCUSSION YOU PROBABLY KNOW HOW AN INCH OF
LIQUID CONVERTS TO SNOWFALL AT 10:1. RIGHT NOW WE`RE BETTING AGAINST
THAT SCENARIO, BUT WE`LL KEEP OUR EYE ON IT FOR SURE AS THE EVENT
NEARS. ANY PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE PEELING OUT TO THE EAST
BY SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
COOL TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED.

SIMPSON
&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

09




000
FXUS64 KAMA 271000
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
400 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE FOCUS REMAINS ON THE FRI-SAT SYSTEM AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TRY TO
CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION. ENJOY THE NICE WEATHER TODAY AND TOMORROW
THOUGH BEFORE A COLD FRONT WED NIGHT BRINGS US BACK DOWN TO EARTH.

TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...
H85 MIX DOWN TECHNIQUES YIELD READINGS IN THE 70S FOR MOST TODAY,
WITH ERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES POSSIBLY PUSHING INTO THE UPR
70S. WED MAY BE JUST A TOUCH COOLER...BUT A WEAK SLOW MOVING FRONT
IN THE AREA WILL LIKELY ALLOW WINDS TO BE QUITE CALM BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR THU MORNING. HIGHS THU WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND
60 SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
CONTINUED TRENDS OF UPPING PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM. GOOD
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ASCENT ALONG THE 300K THETA SFC SHOULD RESULT
IN A SHIELD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM
THE SW BEGINNING FRI MORNING AND LASTING INTO THE DAY ON SAT. PTYPE
REMAINS A CONCERN AND MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN
THE LOW LVLS FOR FRI BUT ARE ACTUALLY WARMER NOW ON SATURDAY AS A
SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND PULLS UP SOME WARMER
AIR.

IT APPEARS THE SE TX PANHANDLE WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY RAIN AND NW
SECTIONS OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES WILL SEE MAINLY SNOW, BUT THE
PROBLEM WILL BE WITH FORECASTING THE EXACT SW TO NE LINE THAT
SEPARATES SNOW FROM RAIN. IF WE HAD TO GUESS RIGHT NOW, IT SEEMS AS
THOUGH THAT LINE WILL RUN FROM ROUGHLY VEGA TO DUMAS TO GUYMON.
AREAS TO THE SE OF WHEREVER THIS MAGIC LINE SETS UP MAY SEE SOME
SNOW, BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL PROBABLY BE HARD TO COME BY. AREAS TO
THE NW WILL SEE SNOW, BUT PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE
LESS THAT DIRECTION THAN THOSE FURTHER SE.

THE REASON RAIN IS MORE LIKELY IN THE SE HALF OF THE PANHANDLES IS A
NEAR SFC WARM LAYER THAT COULD MELT FLAKES JUST BEFORE THEY REACH
THE SFC. LOW LVL WARM AIR WILL BE INHERENTLY SHALLOWER IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WRN PANHANDLES WHICH IS WHY WE THINK THESE AREAS WILL
BE PREDOMINATELY SNOW. RIGHT NOW AMARILLO IS RIGHT ON THE CUTOFF
LINE. IF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE IS FURTHER NW, JUST RAIN FOR AMARILLO.
HOWEVER...IF IT SETS UP FURTHER SE, WE`LL HAVE TO LOOK OUT BECAUSE
IT APPEARS A GOOD 0.5" TO 1" OF LIQUID IS POSSIBLE. IF YOU`RE STILL
READING THIS DEEP IN THE DISCUSSION YOU PROBABLY KNOW HOW AN INCH OF
LIQUID CONVERTS TO SNOWFALL AT 10:1. RIGHT NOW WE`RE BETTING AGAINST
THAT SCENARIO, BUT WE`LL KEEP OUR EYE ON IT FOR SURE AS THE EVENT
NEARS. ANY PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE PEELING OUT TO THE EAST
BY SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
COOL TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED.

SIMPSON
&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KAMA 271000
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
400 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE FOCUS REMAINS ON THE FRI-SAT SYSTEM AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TRY TO
CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION. ENJOY THE NICE WEATHER TODAY AND TOMORROW
THOUGH BEFORE A COLD FRONT WED NIGHT BRINGS US BACK DOWN TO EARTH.

TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...
H85 MIX DOWN TECHNIQUES YIELD READINGS IN THE 70S FOR MOST TODAY,
WITH ERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES POSSIBLY PUSHING INTO THE UPR
70S. WED MAY BE JUST A TOUCH COOLER...BUT A WEAK SLOW MOVING FRONT
IN THE AREA WILL LIKELY ALLOW WINDS TO BE QUITE CALM BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR THU MORNING. HIGHS THU WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND
60 SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
CONTINUED TRENDS OF UPPING PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM. GOOD
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ASCENT ALONG THE 300K THETA SFC SHOULD RESULT
IN A SHIELD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM
THE SW BEGINNING FRI MORNING AND LASTING INTO THE DAY ON SAT. PTYPE
REMAINS A CONCERN AND MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN
THE LOW LVLS FOR FRI BUT ARE ACTUALLY WARMER NOW ON SATURDAY AS A
SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND PULLS UP SOME WARMER
AIR.

IT APPEARS THE SE TX PANHANDLE WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY RAIN AND NW
SECTIONS OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES WILL SEE MAINLY SNOW, BUT THE
PROBLEM WILL BE WITH FORECASTING THE EXACT SW TO NE LINE THAT
SEPARATES SNOW FROM RAIN. IF WE HAD TO GUESS RIGHT NOW, IT SEEMS AS
THOUGH THAT LINE WILL RUN FROM ROUGHLY VEGA TO DUMAS TO GUYMON.
AREAS TO THE SE OF WHEREVER THIS MAGIC LINE SETS UP MAY SEE SOME
SNOW, BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL PROBABLY BE HARD TO COME BY. AREAS TO
THE NW WILL SEE SNOW, BUT PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE
LESS THAT DIRECTION THAN THOSE FURTHER SE.

THE REASON RAIN IS MORE LIKELY IN THE SE HALF OF THE PANHANDLES IS A
NEAR SFC WARM LAYER THAT COULD MELT FLAKES JUST BEFORE THEY REACH
THE SFC. LOW LVL WARM AIR WILL BE INHERENTLY SHALLOWER IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WRN PANHANDLES WHICH IS WHY WE THINK THESE AREAS WILL
BE PREDOMINATELY SNOW. RIGHT NOW AMARILLO IS RIGHT ON THE CUTOFF
LINE. IF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE IS FURTHER NW, JUST RAIN FOR AMARILLO.
HOWEVER...IF IT SETS UP FURTHER SE, WE`LL HAVE TO LOOK OUT BECAUSE
IT APPEARS A GOOD 0.5" TO 1" OF LIQUID IS POSSIBLE. IF YOU`RE STILL
READING THIS DEEP IN THE DISCUSSION YOU PROBABLY KNOW HOW AN INCH OF
LIQUID CONVERTS TO SNOWFALL AT 10:1. RIGHT NOW WE`RE BETTING AGAINST
THAT SCENARIO, BUT WE`LL KEEP OUR EYE ON IT FOR SURE AS THE EVENT
NEARS. ANY PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE PEELING OUT TO THE EAST
BY SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
COOL TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED.

SIMPSON
&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

09




000
FXUS64 KAMA 271000
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
400 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE FOCUS REMAINS ON THE FRI-SAT SYSTEM AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TRY TO
CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION. ENJOY THE NICE WEATHER TODAY AND TOMORROW
THOUGH BEFORE A COLD FRONT WED NIGHT BRINGS US BACK DOWN TO EARTH.

TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...
H85 MIX DOWN TECHNIQUES YIELD READINGS IN THE 70S FOR MOST TODAY,
WITH ERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES POSSIBLY PUSHING INTO THE UPR
70S. WED MAY BE JUST A TOUCH COOLER...BUT A WEAK SLOW MOVING FRONT
IN THE AREA WILL LIKELY ALLOW WINDS TO BE QUITE CALM BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR THU MORNING. HIGHS THU WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND
60 SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
CONTINUED TRENDS OF UPPING PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM. GOOD
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ASCENT ALONG THE 300K THETA SFC SHOULD RESULT
IN A SHIELD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM
THE SW BEGINNING FRI MORNING AND LASTING INTO THE DAY ON SAT. PTYPE
REMAINS A CONCERN AND MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN
THE LOW LVLS FOR FRI BUT ARE ACTUALLY WARMER NOW ON SATURDAY AS A
SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND PULLS UP SOME WARMER
AIR.

IT APPEARS THE SE TX PANHANDLE WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY RAIN AND NW
SECTIONS OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES WILL SEE MAINLY SNOW, BUT THE
PROBLEM WILL BE WITH FORECASTING THE EXACT SW TO NE LINE THAT
SEPARATES SNOW FROM RAIN. IF WE HAD TO GUESS RIGHT NOW, IT SEEMS AS
THOUGH THAT LINE WILL RUN FROM ROUGHLY VEGA TO DUMAS TO GUYMON.
AREAS TO THE SE OF WHEREVER THIS MAGIC LINE SETS UP MAY SEE SOME
SNOW, BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL PROBABLY BE HARD TO COME BY. AREAS TO
THE NW WILL SEE SNOW, BUT PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE
LESS THAT DIRECTION THAN THOSE FURTHER SE.

THE REASON RAIN IS MORE LIKELY IN THE SE HALF OF THE PANHANDLES IS A
NEAR SFC WARM LAYER THAT COULD MELT FLAKES JUST BEFORE THEY REACH
THE SFC. LOW LVL WARM AIR WILL BE INHERENTLY SHALLOWER IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WRN PANHANDLES WHICH IS WHY WE THINK THESE AREAS WILL
BE PREDOMINATELY SNOW. RIGHT NOW AMARILLO IS RIGHT ON THE CUTOFF
LINE. IF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE IS FURTHER NW, JUST RAIN FOR AMARILLO.
HOWEVER...IF IT SETS UP FURTHER SE, WE`LL HAVE TO LOOK OUT BECAUSE
IT APPEARS A GOOD 0.5" TO 1" OF LIQUID IS POSSIBLE. IF YOU`RE STILL
READING THIS DEEP IN THE DISCUSSION YOU PROBABLY KNOW HOW AN INCH OF
LIQUID CONVERTS TO SNOWFALL AT 10:1. RIGHT NOW WE`RE BETTING AGAINST
THAT SCENARIO, BUT WE`LL KEEP OUR EYE ON IT FOR SURE AS THE EVENT
NEARS. ANY PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE PEELING OUT TO THE EAST
BY SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
COOL TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED.

SIMPSON
&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KAMA 270446 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1046 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL TAF
SITES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION FROM WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY 18Z. WINDS AT KGUY COULD BE GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BECOME WESTERLY TONIGHT AND SOUTHWESTERLY BY AROUND 18Z FOR ALL
SITES...WITH KGUY POSSIBLY SEEING SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 20KTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY.

NF

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES ACROSS THE REGION. WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THRU WEDNESDAY AND NO PRECIPITATION. A COLD FRONT
IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
COOLER TEMPS ONCE AGAIN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WHICH IS FCST TO ORGANIZE OVER THE
SWRN US IN THE SRN STREAM FLOW IS ADVERTISED BY MOST MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS TO AFFECT THE TX AND OK PNHDLS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE
DROPPING TOO FAR SOUTH INTO MEXICO BY SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE
CONTINUES TO BE QUITE PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT AS MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH THE AMOUNT AND DEPTH OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED THIS
FEATURE. IT APPEARS PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START OUT AS LIGHT RAIN
ON FRIDAY..THEN EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW FRI NIGHT AND
SATURDAY BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT...ENDING BY
EARLY SUNDAY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...IF ANY...APPEAR TO BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE AT THIS TIME. IMPROVING WEATHER IS SLATED FOR LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/11






000
FXUS64 KAMA 270446 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1046 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL TAF
SITES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION FROM WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY 18Z. WINDS AT KGUY COULD BE GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BECOME WESTERLY TONIGHT AND SOUTHWESTERLY BY AROUND 18Z FOR ALL
SITES...WITH KGUY POSSIBLY SEEING SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 20KTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY.

NF

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES ACROSS THE REGION. WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THRU WEDNESDAY AND NO PRECIPITATION. A COLD FRONT
IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
COOLER TEMPS ONCE AGAIN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WHICH IS FCST TO ORGANIZE OVER THE
SWRN US IN THE SRN STREAM FLOW IS ADVERTISED BY MOST MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS TO AFFECT THE TX AND OK PNHDLS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE
DROPPING TOO FAR SOUTH INTO MEXICO BY SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE
CONTINUES TO BE QUITE PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT AS MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH THE AMOUNT AND DEPTH OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED THIS
FEATURE. IT APPEARS PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START OUT AS LIGHT RAIN
ON FRIDAY..THEN EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW FRI NIGHT AND
SATURDAY BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT...ENDING BY
EARLY SUNDAY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...IF ANY...APPEAR TO BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE AT THIS TIME. IMPROVING WEATHER IS SLATED FOR LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/11







000
FXUS64 KAMA 262327 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
527 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BECOME WESTERLY TONIGHT AND SOUTHWESTERLY BY AROUND 18Z FOR ALL
SITES...WITH KGUY POSSIBLY SEEING SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 20KTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES ACROSS THE REGION. WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THRU WEDNESDAY AND NO PRECIPITATION. A COLD FRONT
IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
COOLER TEMPS ONCE AGAIN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WHICH IS FCST TO ORGANIZE OVER THE
SWRN US IN THE SRN STREAM FLOW IS ADVERTISED BY MOST MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS TO AFFECT THE TX AND OK PNHDLS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE
DROPPING TOO FAR SOUTH INTO MEXICO BY SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE
CONTINUES TO BE QUITE PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT AS MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH THE AMOUNT AND DEPTH OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED THIS
FEATURE. IT APPEARS PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START OUT AS LIGHT RAIN
ON FRIDAY..THEN EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW FRI NIGHT AND
SATURDAY BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT...ENDING BY
EARLY SUNDAY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...IF ANY...APPEAR TO BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE AT THIS TIME. IMPROVING WEATHER IS SLATED FOR LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/11







000
FXUS64 KAMA 262327 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
527 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BECOME WESTERLY TONIGHT AND SOUTHWESTERLY BY AROUND 18Z FOR ALL
SITES...WITH KGUY POSSIBLY SEEING SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 20KTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES ACROSS THE REGION. WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THRU WEDNESDAY AND NO PRECIPITATION. A COLD FRONT
IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
COOLER TEMPS ONCE AGAIN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WHICH IS FCST TO ORGANIZE OVER THE
SWRN US IN THE SRN STREAM FLOW IS ADVERTISED BY MOST MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS TO AFFECT THE TX AND OK PNHDLS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE
DROPPING TOO FAR SOUTH INTO MEXICO BY SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE
CONTINUES TO BE QUITE PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT AS MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH THE AMOUNT AND DEPTH OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED THIS
FEATURE. IT APPEARS PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START OUT AS LIGHT RAIN
ON FRIDAY..THEN EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW FRI NIGHT AND
SATURDAY BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT...ENDING BY
EARLY SUNDAY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...IF ANY...APPEAR TO BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE AT THIS TIME. IMPROVING WEATHER IS SLATED FOR LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/11






000
FXUS64 KAMA 262157
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
357 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES ACROSS THE REGION. WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THRU WEDNESDAY AND NO PRECIPITATION. A COLD FRONT
IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
COOLER TEMPS ONCE AGAIN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WHICH IS FCST TO ORGANIZE OVER THE
SWRN US IN THE SRN STREAM FLOW IS ADVERTISED BY MOST MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS TO AFFECT THE TX AND OK PNHDLS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE
DROPPING TOO FAR SOUTH INTO MEXICO BY SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE
CONTINUES TO BE QUITE PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT AS MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH THE AMOUNT AND DEPTH OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED THIS
FEATURE. IT APPEARS PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START OUT AS LIGHT RAIN
ON FRIDAY..THEN EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW FRI NIGHT AND
SATURDAY BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT...ENDING BY
EARLY SUNDAY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...IF ANY...APPEAR TO BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE AT THIS TIME. IMPROVING WEATHER IS SLATED FOR LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

ANDRADE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                35  71  41  68  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  34  74  40  70  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              35  72  37  66  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  38  75  44  71  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              34  70  40  68  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  35  71  41  68  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               37  73  43  71  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 30  71  35  67  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  34  75  39  69  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                34  69  40  67  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                35  74  40  70  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   35  74  43  71  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                37  74  44  72  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              39  75  45  74  41 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 262157
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
357 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES ACROSS THE REGION. WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THRU WEDNESDAY AND NO PRECIPITATION. A COLD FRONT
IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
COOLER TEMPS ONCE AGAIN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WHICH IS FCST TO ORGANIZE OVER THE
SWRN US IN THE SRN STREAM FLOW IS ADVERTISED BY MOST MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS TO AFFECT THE TX AND OK PNHDLS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE
DROPPING TOO FAR SOUTH INTO MEXICO BY SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE
CONTINUES TO BE QUITE PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT AS MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH THE AMOUNT AND DEPTH OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED THIS
FEATURE. IT APPEARS PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START OUT AS LIGHT RAIN
ON FRIDAY..THEN EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW FRI NIGHT AND
SATURDAY BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT...ENDING BY
EARLY SUNDAY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...IF ANY...APPEAR TO BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE AT THIS TIME. IMPROVING WEATHER IS SLATED FOR LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

ANDRADE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                35  71  41  68  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  34  74  40  70  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              35  72  37  66  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  38  75  44  71  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              34  70  40  68  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  35  71  41  68  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               37  73  43  71  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 30  71  35  67  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  34  75  39  69  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                34  69  40  67  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                35  74  40  70  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   35  74  43  71  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                37  74  44  72  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              39  75  45  74  41 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 261732 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1132 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY CLEAR SKY EXPECTED.  NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND TO
BECOME LIGHT WESTERLY BETWEEN 22Z TODAY AND 00Z TUESDAY.  LIGHT
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...AND TO THEN
TREND TO SOUTHWEST BY LATE MORNING ON TUESDAY.  NO OVERNIGHT
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24
HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE A SHIFT IN WINDS FROM THE WEST TO MORE
NORTHERLY BETWEEN 14-16Z TODAY. WINDS WILL RANGE IN THE 10-15KT RANGE
THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD. BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WINDS WILL
SHIFT BACK TO A WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 144 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY WEEK WARMTH IS EXPECTED...THOUGH IT WILL BE TEMPERED A BIT BY
SFC MOISTURE OVER AREAS THAT EITHER CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME SNOWPACK
OR ARE JUST FINALLY FINISHING MELTING IT. TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS (10-15G20 MPH DURING AFTERNOONS) ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE BREEZIEST PERIOD LIKELY BEING TUE NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WED.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WED NIGHT PUTTING AN END TO THE WARMTH.

THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER BUT LIKELY DRY. BEGINNING THU NIGHT...A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF WEAK MID/UPR DIFFLUENCE AND PERIODIC LOW LVL
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL COUPLE WITH A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME TO
PROVIDE OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE PRECIP.
MED RANGE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO CARRY BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE DUE TO
DIFFERENCES REGARDING EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING OF A QUASI-CUT OFF SW
CONUS UPR LOW AND STRENGTH/TIMING OF SFC COLD AIR INTRUSIONS. HAVE
KEPT GOING FORECAST IDEA OF INITIALLY RAIN FRI FOLLOWED BY A RAIN OR
SNOW PERIOD FRI NIGHT-SAT...FOLLOWED BY PREDOMINATELY SNOW CHANCES
SAT NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY IS QUITE HIGH WRT TO PTYPE FRI AFTERNOON - SAT
AFTERNOON AS THE COLDER LOW LVL SOLUTION THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY
THE GFS/GEM COULD MEAN ACCUMULATING SNOWS. THE ECMWF HAD BEEN SHOWING
A WARMER LOW LVL SOLUTION WHICH WOULD MEAN MOSTLY RAIN UNTIL SAT
AFTERNOON, BUT THE 00Z RUN HAS TRENDED COLDER, SO THE LATE FRI
AFTERNOON-SAT AFTERNOON BEARS CLOSE WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN THE TX PANHANDLE...THOUGH ALL
AREAS STAND A CHANCE AT SEEING SOMETHING BETWEEN FRI AND SAT NIGHT.

DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, BUT AGAIN
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD REMAINS FAIRLY LOW.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/02







000
FXUS64 KAMA 261732 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1132 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY CLEAR SKY EXPECTED.  NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND TO
BECOME LIGHT WESTERLY BETWEEN 22Z TODAY AND 00Z TUESDAY.  LIGHT
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...AND TO THEN
TREND TO SOUTHWEST BY LATE MORNING ON TUESDAY.  NO OVERNIGHT
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24
HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE A SHIFT IN WINDS FROM THE WEST TO MORE
NORTHERLY BETWEEN 14-16Z TODAY. WINDS WILL RANGE IN THE 10-15KT RANGE
THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD. BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WINDS WILL
SHIFT BACK TO A WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 144 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY WEEK WARMTH IS EXPECTED...THOUGH IT WILL BE TEMPERED A BIT BY
SFC MOISTURE OVER AREAS THAT EITHER CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME SNOWPACK
OR ARE JUST FINALLY FINISHING MELTING IT. TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS (10-15G20 MPH DURING AFTERNOONS) ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE BREEZIEST PERIOD LIKELY BEING TUE NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WED.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WED NIGHT PUTTING AN END TO THE WARMTH.

THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER BUT LIKELY DRY. BEGINNING THU NIGHT...A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF WEAK MID/UPR DIFFLUENCE AND PERIODIC LOW LVL
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL COUPLE WITH A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME TO
PROVIDE OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE PRECIP.
MED RANGE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO CARRY BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE DUE TO
DIFFERENCES REGARDING EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING OF A QUASI-CUT OFF SW
CONUS UPR LOW AND STRENGTH/TIMING OF SFC COLD AIR INTRUSIONS. HAVE
KEPT GOING FORECAST IDEA OF INITIALLY RAIN FRI FOLLOWED BY A RAIN OR
SNOW PERIOD FRI NIGHT-SAT...FOLLOWED BY PREDOMINATELY SNOW CHANCES
SAT NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY IS QUITE HIGH WRT TO PTYPE FRI AFTERNOON - SAT
AFTERNOON AS THE COLDER LOW LVL SOLUTION THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY
THE GFS/GEM COULD MEAN ACCUMULATING SNOWS. THE ECMWF HAD BEEN SHOWING
A WARMER LOW LVL SOLUTION WHICH WOULD MEAN MOSTLY RAIN UNTIL SAT
AFTERNOON, BUT THE 00Z RUN HAS TRENDED COLDER, SO THE LATE FRI
AFTERNOON-SAT AFTERNOON BEARS CLOSE WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN THE TX PANHANDLE...THOUGH ALL
AREAS STAND A CHANCE AT SEEING SOMETHING BETWEEN FRI AND SAT NIGHT.

DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, BUT AGAIN
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD REMAINS FAIRLY LOW.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/02






000
FXUS64 KAMA 261110
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
510 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE A SHIFT IN WINDS FROM THE WEST TO MORE
NORTHERLY BETWEEN 14-16Z TODAY. WINDS WILL RANGE IN THE 10-15KT RANGE
THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD. BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WINDS WILL
SHIFT BACK TO A WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 144 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY WEEK WARMTH IS EXPECTED...THOUGH IT WILL BE TEMPERED A BIT BY
SFC MOISTURE OVER AREAS THAT EITHER CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME SNOWPACK
OR ARE JUST FINALLY FINISHING MELTING IT. TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS (10-15G20 MPH DURING AFTERNOONS) ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE BREEZIEST PERIOD LIKELY BEING TUE NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WED.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WED NIGHT PUTTING AN END TO THE WARMTH.

THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER BUT LIKELY DRY. BEGINNING THU NIGHT...A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF WEAK MID/UPR DIFFLUENCE AND PERIODIC LOW LVL
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL COUPLE WITH A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME TO
PROVIDE OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE PRECIP.
MED RANGE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO CARRY BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE DUE TO
DIFFERENCES REGARDING EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING OF A QUASI-CUT OFF SW
CONUS UPR LOW AND STRENGTH/TIMING OF SFC COLD AIR INTRUSIONS. HAVE
KEPT GOING FORECAST IDEA OF INITIALLY RAIN FRI FOLLOWED BY A RAIN OR
SNOW PERIOD FRI NIGHT-SAT...FOLLOWED BY PREDOMINATELY SNOW CHANCES
SAT NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY IS QUITE HIGH WRT TO PTYPE FRI AFTERNOON - SAT
AFTERNOON AS THE COLDER LOW LVL SOLUTION THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY
THE GFS/GEM COULD MEAN ACCUMULATING SNOWS. THE ECMWF HAD BEEN SHOWING
A WARMER LOW LVL SOLUTION WHICH WOULD MEAN MOSTLY RAIN UNTIL SAT
AFTERNOON, BUT THE 00Z RUN HAS TRENDED COLDER, SO THE LATE FRI
AFTERNOON-SAT AFTERNOON BEARS CLOSE WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN THE TX PANHANDLE...THOUGH ALL
AREAS STAND A CHANCE AT SEEING SOMETHING BETWEEN FRI AND SAT NIGHT.

DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, BUT AGAIN
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD REMAINS FAIRLY LOW.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/09






000
FXUS64 KAMA 261110
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
510 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE A SHIFT IN WINDS FROM THE WEST TO MORE
NORTHERLY BETWEEN 14-16Z TODAY. WINDS WILL RANGE IN THE 10-15KT RANGE
THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD. BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WINDS WILL
SHIFT BACK TO A WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 144 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY WEEK WARMTH IS EXPECTED...THOUGH IT WILL BE TEMPERED A BIT BY
SFC MOISTURE OVER AREAS THAT EITHER CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME SNOWPACK
OR ARE JUST FINALLY FINISHING MELTING IT. TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS (10-15G20 MPH DURING AFTERNOONS) ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE BREEZIEST PERIOD LIKELY BEING TUE NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WED.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WED NIGHT PUTTING AN END TO THE WARMTH.

THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER BUT LIKELY DRY. BEGINNING THU NIGHT...A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF WEAK MID/UPR DIFFLUENCE AND PERIODIC LOW LVL
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL COUPLE WITH A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME TO
PROVIDE OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE PRECIP.
MED RANGE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO CARRY BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE DUE TO
DIFFERENCES REGARDING EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING OF A QUASI-CUT OFF SW
CONUS UPR LOW AND STRENGTH/TIMING OF SFC COLD AIR INTRUSIONS. HAVE
KEPT GOING FORECAST IDEA OF INITIALLY RAIN FRI FOLLOWED BY A RAIN OR
SNOW PERIOD FRI NIGHT-SAT...FOLLOWED BY PREDOMINATELY SNOW CHANCES
SAT NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY IS QUITE HIGH WRT TO PTYPE FRI AFTERNOON - SAT
AFTERNOON AS THE COLDER LOW LVL SOLUTION THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY
THE GFS/GEM COULD MEAN ACCUMULATING SNOWS. THE ECMWF HAD BEEN SHOWING
A WARMER LOW LVL SOLUTION WHICH WOULD MEAN MOSTLY RAIN UNTIL SAT
AFTERNOON, BUT THE 00Z RUN HAS TRENDED COLDER, SO THE LATE FRI
AFTERNOON-SAT AFTERNOON BEARS CLOSE WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN THE TX PANHANDLE...THOUGH ALL
AREAS STAND A CHANCE AT SEEING SOMETHING BETWEEN FRI AND SAT NIGHT.

DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, BUT AGAIN
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD REMAINS FAIRLY LOW.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/09







000
FXUS64 KAMA 260744
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
144 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY WEEK WARMTH IS EXPECTED...THOUGH IT WILL BE TEMPERED A BIT BY
SFC MOISTURE OVER AREAS THAT EITHER CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME SNOWPACK
OR ARE JUST FINALLY FINISHING MELTING IT. TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS (10-15G20 MPH DURING AFTERNOONS) ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE BREEZIEST PERIOD LIKELY BEING TUE NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WED.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WED NIGHT PUTTING AN END TO THE WARMTH.

THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER BUT LIKELY DRY. BEGINNING THU NIGHT...A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF WEAK MID/UPR DIFFLUENCE AND PERIODIC LOW LVL
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL COUPLE WITH A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME TO
PROVIDE OFF AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE PRECIP. MED
RANGE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO CARRY BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE DUE TO
DIFFERENCES REGARDING EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING OF A QUASI-CUT OFF
SW CONUS UPR LOW AND STRENGTH/TIMING OF SFC COLD AIR INTRUSIONS.
HAVE KEPT GOING FORECAST IDEA OF INITIALLY RAIN FRI FOLLOWED BY A
RAIN OR SNOW PERIOD FRI NIGHT-SAT...FOLLOWED BY PREDOMINATELY SNOW
CHANCES SAT NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY IS QUITE HIGH WRT TO PTYPE FRI
AFTERNOON - SAT AFTERNOON AS THE COLDER LOW LVL SOLUTION THAT HAS
BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/GEM COULD MEAN ACCUMULATING SNOWS. THE
ECMWF HAD BEEN SHOWING A WARMER LOW LVL SOLUTION WHICH WOULD MEAN
MOSTLY RAIN UNTIL SAT AFTERNOON, BUT THE 00Z RUN HAS TRENDED COLDER,
SO THE LATE FRI AFTERNOON-SAT AFTERNOON BEARS CLOSE WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN THE TX
PANHANDLE...THOUGH ALL AREAS STAND A CHANCE AT SEEING SOMETHING
BETWEEN FRI AND SAT NIGHT.

DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, BUT AGAIN
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD REMAINS FAIRLY LOW.

SIMPSON
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                62  35  70  44  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  70  35  75  41  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              68  35  73  39  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  66  37  72  43  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              62  33  68  41  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  62  34  67  43  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               68  39  73  46  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 62  29  69  36  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  69  33  74  40  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                61  33  68  42  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                70  35  75  44  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   66  37  72  44  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                69  37  74  46  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              70  39  75  46  76 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/09






000
FXUS64 KAMA 260744
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
144 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY WEEK WARMTH IS EXPECTED...THOUGH IT WILL BE TEMPERED A BIT BY
SFC MOISTURE OVER AREAS THAT EITHER CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME SNOWPACK
OR ARE JUST FINALLY FINISHING MELTING IT. TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS (10-15G20 MPH DURING AFTERNOONS) ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE BREEZIEST PERIOD LIKELY BEING TUE NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WED.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WED NIGHT PUTTING AN END TO THE WARMTH.

THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER BUT LIKELY DRY. BEGINNING THU NIGHT...A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF WEAK MID/UPR DIFFLUENCE AND PERIODIC LOW LVL
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL COUPLE WITH A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME TO
PROVIDE OFF AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE PRECIP. MED
RANGE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO CARRY BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE DUE TO
DIFFERENCES REGARDING EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING OF A QUASI-CUT OFF
SW CONUS UPR LOW AND STRENGTH/TIMING OF SFC COLD AIR INTRUSIONS.
HAVE KEPT GOING FORECAST IDEA OF INITIALLY RAIN FRI FOLLOWED BY A
RAIN OR SNOW PERIOD FRI NIGHT-SAT...FOLLOWED BY PREDOMINATELY SNOW
CHANCES SAT NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY IS QUITE HIGH WRT TO PTYPE FRI
AFTERNOON - SAT AFTERNOON AS THE COLDER LOW LVL SOLUTION THAT HAS
BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/GEM COULD MEAN ACCUMULATING SNOWS. THE
ECMWF HAD BEEN SHOWING A WARMER LOW LVL SOLUTION WHICH WOULD MEAN
MOSTLY RAIN UNTIL SAT AFTERNOON, BUT THE 00Z RUN HAS TRENDED COLDER,
SO THE LATE FRI AFTERNOON-SAT AFTERNOON BEARS CLOSE WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN THE TX
PANHANDLE...THOUGH ALL AREAS STAND A CHANCE AT SEEING SOMETHING
BETWEEN FRI AND SAT NIGHT.

DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, BUT AGAIN
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD REMAINS FAIRLY LOW.

SIMPSON
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                62  35  70  44  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  70  35  75  41  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              68  35  73  39  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  66  37  72  43  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              62  33  68  41  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  62  34  67  43  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               68  39  73  46  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 62  29  69  36  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  69  33  74  40  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                61  33  68  42  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                70  35  75  44  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   66  37  72  44  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                69  37  74  46  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              70  39  75  46  76 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/09







000
FXUS64 KAMA 260500
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1100 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE THREE TAF SITES BETWEEN 14Z AND
17Z MONDAY WHICH WILL SHIFT THE WINDS FROM THE WEST 5 TO 15 KNOTS
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME
WEST TO NORTHWEST AFTER 22Z MONDAY 5 TO 15 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO
NORTH 5 TO 15 KNOTS BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE THREE TAF SITES BETWEEN 14Z AND 17Z MONDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE WARMING TREND HAS STARTED FOR THE PANHANDLES AND PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE CONTINUES TO MELT THE SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. LOCATIONS THAT
STILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER INCLUDING AMARILLO...HAVE STRUGGLED
TO REACH MUCH ABOVE THE 50 DEGREE MARK. MEANWHILE..THE OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLES HAVE NEARED OR SURPASSED 60 DEGREES. FOR
TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES FALL
INTO THE 30S AREA WIDE.

FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED WITH A WARMING TREND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS A DRY
PATTERN REMAINS. HIGHS WILL BE A GOOD 10 TO EVEN 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL DURING THIS 3 DAY PERIOD ESPECIALLY ONCE ALL THE SNOW
MELTS...IF NOT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...DEFINITELY BY TUESDAY. WITH THAT
SAID...HAVE STRUCTURED HIGH TEMPERATURES TO EXHIBIT COOLER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SNOW PACK...BUT THINK BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...70S WILL BE FAIR GAME FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CONTINUING.

NEXT BIG PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. MODEL AGREEMENT IS SOMEWHAT MESSY RIGHT NOW...BUT GENERALLY
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE GETS CAUGHT UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE. WHEN THIS
HAPPENS...CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF WHEN THIS UPPER LOW EJECTS
EAST IS OFTEN LOW...BUT DO THINK THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE
PRECIPITATION...LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND.

WITH THIS CURRENT ADVERTISED SET UP...IT ACTUALLY LOOKS LIKE MORE OF
AN OVER-RUNNING SITUATION WHERE WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING WITH MOSTLY RAIN DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND A CHANGEOVER
TO RAIN/SNOW OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPES ON SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON TEMPERATURES BUT A
RAIN/SNOW CHANGING OVER TO MOSTLY SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED FOR NOW.
THERE IS STILL CONCERN THAT THIS LOW TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH KEEPING THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH TOO. SOMETHING TO DEFINITELY KEEP AN
EYE ON OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THESE TYPES OF DISTURBANCES/LOWS
CAUGHT UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE ARE QUITE DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE FOR THE
MODELS.

KH

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/17







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