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000
FXUS64 KAMA 272046
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
346 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHERN TEXAS TONIGHT. THE
PANHANDLES WILL REMAIN IN A WRAP AROUND BAND OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THIS
RAIN EVENT WILL BE COMING TO AN END.

POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN IT WILL SET UP SHOP
OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY AND THEN IT WILL GET
SUPPRESSED BY SUNDAY WHICH WOULD ALLOW A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS TO MOVE OVER. THESE WAVES COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                37  62  41  71  44 /  60  10   5   0   0
BEAVER OK                  38  68  42  73  43 /  90   5   5   5   0
BOISE CITY OK              35  62  39  71  43 /  20   5   5   0   0
BORGER TX                  40  65  40  73  46 /  70  10   5   5   0
BOYS RANCH TX              37  64  41  73  44 /  40  10   5   0   0
CANYON TX                  38  61  37  71  43 /  50  10   5   0   0
CLARENDON TX               41  64  45  71  45 /  60  20   5   5   5
DALHART TX                 34  63  38  72  42 /  20   5   5   0   0
GUYMON OK                  36  67  40  73  43 /  40   5   5   0   0
HEREFORD TX                37  64  38  73  43 /  40  10   5   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                42  64  42  70  44 /  90  10   5   5   0
PAMPA TX                   38  62  40  69  44 /  70  10   5   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                43  63  45  70  45 /  70  20   5   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              44  66  47  72  47 /  50  30   5   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/15







000
FXUS64 KAMA 272046
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
346 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHERN TEXAS TONIGHT. THE
PANHANDLES WILL REMAIN IN A WRAP AROUND BAND OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THIS
RAIN EVENT WILL BE COMING TO AN END.

POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN IT WILL SET UP SHOP
OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY AND THEN IT WILL GET
SUPPRESSED BY SUNDAY WHICH WOULD ALLOW A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS TO MOVE OVER. THESE WAVES COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                37  62  41  71  44 /  60  10   5   0   0
BEAVER OK                  38  68  42  73  43 /  90   5   5   5   0
BOISE CITY OK              35  62  39  71  43 /  20   5   5   0   0
BORGER TX                  40  65  40  73  46 /  70  10   5   5   0
BOYS RANCH TX              37  64  41  73  44 /  40  10   5   0   0
CANYON TX                  38  61  37  71  43 /  50  10   5   0   0
CLARENDON TX               41  64  45  71  45 /  60  20   5   5   5
DALHART TX                 34  63  38  72  42 /  20   5   5   0   0
GUYMON OK                  36  67  40  73  43 /  40   5   5   0   0
HEREFORD TX                37  64  38  73  43 /  40  10   5   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                42  64  42  70  44 /  90  10   5   5   0
PAMPA TX                   38  62  40  69  44 /  70  10   5   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                43  63  45  70  45 /  70  20   5   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              44  66  47  72  47 /  50  30   5   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/15






000
FXUS64 KAMA 272046
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
346 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHERN TEXAS TONIGHT. THE
PANHANDLES WILL REMAIN IN A WRAP AROUND BAND OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THIS
RAIN EVENT WILL BE COMING TO AN END.

POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN IT WILL SET UP SHOP
OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY AND THEN IT WILL GET
SUPPRESSED BY SUNDAY WHICH WOULD ALLOW A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS TO MOVE OVER. THESE WAVES COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                37  62  41  71  44 /  60  10   5   0   0
BEAVER OK                  38  68  42  73  43 /  90   5   5   5   0
BOISE CITY OK              35  62  39  71  43 /  20   5   5   0   0
BORGER TX                  40  65  40  73  46 /  70  10   5   5   0
BOYS RANCH TX              37  64  41  73  44 /  40  10   5   0   0
CANYON TX                  38  61  37  71  43 /  50  10   5   0   0
CLARENDON TX               41  64  45  71  45 /  60  20   5   5   5
DALHART TX                 34  63  38  72  42 /  20   5   5   0   0
GUYMON OK                  36  67  40  73  43 /  40   5   5   0   0
HEREFORD TX                37  64  38  73  43 /  40  10   5   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                42  64  42  70  44 /  90  10   5   5   0
PAMPA TX                   38  62  40  69  44 /  70  10   5   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                43  63  45  70  45 /  70  20   5   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              44  66  47  72  47 /  50  30   5   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/15







000
FXUS64 KAMA 272046
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
346 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHERN TEXAS TONIGHT. THE
PANHANDLES WILL REMAIN IN A WRAP AROUND BAND OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THIS
RAIN EVENT WILL BE COMING TO AN END.

POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN IT WILL SET UP SHOP
OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY AND THEN IT WILL GET
SUPPRESSED BY SUNDAY WHICH WOULD ALLOW A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS TO MOVE OVER. THESE WAVES COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                37  62  41  71  44 /  60  10   5   0   0
BEAVER OK                  38  68  42  73  43 /  90   5   5   5   0
BOISE CITY OK              35  62  39  71  43 /  20   5   5   0   0
BORGER TX                  40  65  40  73  46 /  70  10   5   5   0
BOYS RANCH TX              37  64  41  73  44 /  40  10   5   0   0
CANYON TX                  38  61  37  71  43 /  50  10   5   0   0
CLARENDON TX               41  64  45  71  45 /  60  20   5   5   5
DALHART TX                 34  63  38  72  42 /  20   5   5   0   0
GUYMON OK                  36  67  40  73  43 /  40   5   5   0   0
HEREFORD TX                37  64  38  73  43 /  40  10   5   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                42  64  42  70  44 /  90  10   5   5   0
PAMPA TX                   38  62  40  69  44 /  70  10   5   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                43  63  45  70  45 /  70  20   5   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              44  66  47  72  47 /  50  30   5   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/15






000
FXUS64 KAMA 271808 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
108 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE
RAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES. RAIN WILL MOST LIKELY QUIT AT KDHT AND KGUY
BEFORE IT STOPS AT KAMA...WITH BEST GUESS AT ENDING TIMES INCLUDED IN
THE TAFS. GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT
01Z AT ALL SITES. LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY LIFT OR
SCATTER...THOUGH THINK THAT IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE AT KAMA
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE AT KDHT AND
KGUY THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING. SOME AREAS OF BR COULD RE-DEVELOP
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH BEST CHANCE AT KAMA.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/ COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST DUE TO ONGOING RAIN AND
CORRESPONDING LOW CIGS AND VSBYS.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MOVING OVER MUCH OF
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT THE KAMA TERMINAL. SHOULD SEE
RAIN TAPER OFF EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AT KGUY/KDHT. POSSIBLE FOR A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BUT EXPECT MAINLY RAIN THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.
LOW CIGS IN THE MVFR AND IFR CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. VISBYS CAN FALL INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY FROM HEAVIER RAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AMENDMENTS TO THE
FORECAST WILL BE NEEDED DURING THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

CLK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE FIRST 48 HOURS. THE UPPER
CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
INTO NORTHWESTERN TEXAS THIS MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...SATELLITE BLENDED
PWAT IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE TOWARDS THE PANHANDLES
WITH VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 0.9 AND 1.2 INCHES. FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...THESE VALUES FALL BETWEEN THE 75TH PERCENTILE AND +2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS. THE STRONG DYNAMICS PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LOW AND THE
CONTINUAL SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
DOWNPOURS IN THE FORECAST TODAY. WHILE RAINFALL RATES WILL LIKELY NOT
BE AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY (MUCH LESS INSTABILITY TODAY) THE DURATION OF
PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION YESTERDAY. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY (UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S) UNDER OVERCAST SKIES.

THE LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS NORTHWESTERN TEXAS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND BE OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS/SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA BY THIS EVENING. THE POSITION OF THE LOW AT THIS POINT WILL
PLACE THE PANHANDLES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND CAUSE HIGHER
PWAT VALUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS WILL LIMIT THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL AND REDUCE THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT. WILL KEEP THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AS IS FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE AND ALLOW IT TO EXPIRE
AT 7 PM THIS EVENING. LIGHTER SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THESE LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LOW MOVES INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PANHANDLES WILL REMAIN IN
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO AVERAGE AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. OVER THE WEEKEND WE COULD
SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF
     SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...TEXAS.


&&

$$

06/15






000
FXUS64 KAMA 271808 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
108 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE
RAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES. RAIN WILL MOST LIKELY QUIT AT KDHT AND KGUY
BEFORE IT STOPS AT KAMA...WITH BEST GUESS AT ENDING TIMES INCLUDED IN
THE TAFS. GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT
01Z AT ALL SITES. LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY LIFT OR
SCATTER...THOUGH THINK THAT IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE AT KAMA
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE AT KDHT AND
KGUY THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING. SOME AREAS OF BR COULD RE-DEVELOP
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH BEST CHANCE AT KAMA.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/ COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST DUE TO ONGOING RAIN AND
CORRESPONDING LOW CIGS AND VSBYS.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MOVING OVER MUCH OF
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT THE KAMA TERMINAL. SHOULD SEE
RAIN TAPER OFF EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AT KGUY/KDHT. POSSIBLE FOR A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BUT EXPECT MAINLY RAIN THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.
LOW CIGS IN THE MVFR AND IFR CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. VISBYS CAN FALL INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY FROM HEAVIER RAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AMENDMENTS TO THE
FORECAST WILL BE NEEDED DURING THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

CLK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE FIRST 48 HOURS. THE UPPER
CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
INTO NORTHWESTERN TEXAS THIS MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...SATELLITE BLENDED
PWAT IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE TOWARDS THE PANHANDLES
WITH VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 0.9 AND 1.2 INCHES. FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...THESE VALUES FALL BETWEEN THE 75TH PERCENTILE AND +2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS. THE STRONG DYNAMICS PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LOW AND THE
CONTINUAL SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
DOWNPOURS IN THE FORECAST TODAY. WHILE RAINFALL RATES WILL LIKELY NOT
BE AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY (MUCH LESS INSTABILITY TODAY) THE DURATION OF
PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION YESTERDAY. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY (UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S) UNDER OVERCAST SKIES.

THE LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS NORTHWESTERN TEXAS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND BE OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS/SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA BY THIS EVENING. THE POSITION OF THE LOW AT THIS POINT WILL
PLACE THE PANHANDLES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND CAUSE HIGHER
PWAT VALUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS WILL LIMIT THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL AND REDUCE THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT. WILL KEEP THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AS IS FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE AND ALLOW IT TO EXPIRE
AT 7 PM THIS EVENING. LIGHTER SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THESE LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LOW MOVES INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PANHANDLES WILL REMAIN IN
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO AVERAGE AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. OVER THE WEEKEND WE COULD
SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF
     SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...TEXAS.


&&

$$

06/15







000
FXUS64 KAMA 271808 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
108 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE
RAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES. RAIN WILL MOST LIKELY QUIT AT KDHT AND KGUY
BEFORE IT STOPS AT KAMA...WITH BEST GUESS AT ENDING TIMES INCLUDED IN
THE TAFS. GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT
01Z AT ALL SITES. LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY LIFT OR
SCATTER...THOUGH THINK THAT IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE AT KAMA
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE AT KDHT AND
KGUY THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING. SOME AREAS OF BR COULD RE-DEVELOP
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH BEST CHANCE AT KAMA.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/ COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST DUE TO ONGOING RAIN AND
CORRESPONDING LOW CIGS AND VSBYS.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MOVING OVER MUCH OF
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT THE KAMA TERMINAL. SHOULD SEE
RAIN TAPER OFF EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AT KGUY/KDHT. POSSIBLE FOR A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BUT EXPECT MAINLY RAIN THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.
LOW CIGS IN THE MVFR AND IFR CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. VISBYS CAN FALL INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY FROM HEAVIER RAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AMENDMENTS TO THE
FORECAST WILL BE NEEDED DURING THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

CLK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE FIRST 48 HOURS. THE UPPER
CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
INTO NORTHWESTERN TEXAS THIS MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...SATELLITE BLENDED
PWAT IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE TOWARDS THE PANHANDLES
WITH VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 0.9 AND 1.2 INCHES. FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...THESE VALUES FALL BETWEEN THE 75TH PERCENTILE AND +2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS. THE STRONG DYNAMICS PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LOW AND THE
CONTINUAL SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
DOWNPOURS IN THE FORECAST TODAY. WHILE RAINFALL RATES WILL LIKELY NOT
BE AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY (MUCH LESS INSTABILITY TODAY) THE DURATION OF
PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION YESTERDAY. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY (UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S) UNDER OVERCAST SKIES.

THE LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS NORTHWESTERN TEXAS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND BE OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS/SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA BY THIS EVENING. THE POSITION OF THE LOW AT THIS POINT WILL
PLACE THE PANHANDLES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND CAUSE HIGHER
PWAT VALUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS WILL LIMIT THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL AND REDUCE THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT. WILL KEEP THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AS IS FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE AND ALLOW IT TO EXPIRE
AT 7 PM THIS EVENING. LIGHTER SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THESE LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LOW MOVES INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PANHANDLES WILL REMAIN IN
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO AVERAGE AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. OVER THE WEEKEND WE COULD
SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF
     SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...TEXAS.


&&

$$

06/15






000
FXUS64 KAMA 271152
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
652 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/ COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST DUE TO ONGOING RAIN AND
CORRESPONDING LOW CIGS AND VSBYS.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MOVING OVER MUCH OF
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT THE KAMA TERMINAL. SHOULD SEE
RAIN TAPER OFF EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AT KGUY/KDHT. POSSIBLE FOR A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BUT EXPECT MAINLY RAIN THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.
LOW CIGS IN THE MVFR AND IFR CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. VISBYS CAN FALL INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY FROM HEAVIER RAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AMENDMENTS TO THE
FORECAST WILL BE NEEDED DURING THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE FIRST 48 HOURS. THE UPPER
CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
INTO NORTHWESTERN TEXAS THIS MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...SATELLITE BLENDED
PWAT IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE TOWARDS THE PANHANDLES
WITH VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 0.9 AND 1.2 INCHES. FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...THESE VALUES FALL BETWEEN THE 75TH PERCENTILE AND +2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS. THE STRONG DYNAMICS PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LOW AND THE
CONTINUAL SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
DOWNPOURS IN THE FORECAST TODAY. WHILE RAINFALL RATES WILL LIKELY NOT
BE AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY (MUCH LESS INSTABILITY TODAY) THE DURATION OF
PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION YESTERDAY. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY (UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S) UNDER OVERCAST SKIES.

THE LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS NORTHWESTERN TEXAS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND BE OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS/SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA BY THIS EVENING. THE POSITION OF THE LOW AT THIS POINT WILL
PLACE THE PANHANDLES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND CAUSE HIGHER
PWAT VALUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS WILL LIMIT THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL AND REDUCE THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT. WILL KEEP THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AS IS FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE AND ALLOW IT TO EXPIRE
AT 7 PM THIS EVENING. LIGHTER SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THESE LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LOW MOVES INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PANHANDLES WILL REMAIN IN
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO AVERAGE AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. OVER THE WEEKEND WE COULD
SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...
     HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...
     ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BEAVER...TEXAS.


&&

$$

05/14







000
FXUS64 KAMA 271152
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
652 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/ COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST DUE TO ONGOING RAIN AND
CORRESPONDING LOW CIGS AND VSBYS.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MOVING OVER MUCH OF
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT THE KAMA TERMINAL. SHOULD SEE
RAIN TAPER OFF EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AT KGUY/KDHT. POSSIBLE FOR A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BUT EXPECT MAINLY RAIN THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.
LOW CIGS IN THE MVFR AND IFR CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. VISBYS CAN FALL INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY FROM HEAVIER RAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AMENDMENTS TO THE
FORECAST WILL BE NEEDED DURING THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE FIRST 48 HOURS. THE UPPER
CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
INTO NORTHWESTERN TEXAS THIS MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...SATELLITE BLENDED
PWAT IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE TOWARDS THE PANHANDLES
WITH VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 0.9 AND 1.2 INCHES. FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...THESE VALUES FALL BETWEEN THE 75TH PERCENTILE AND +2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS. THE STRONG DYNAMICS PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LOW AND THE
CONTINUAL SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
DOWNPOURS IN THE FORECAST TODAY. WHILE RAINFALL RATES WILL LIKELY NOT
BE AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY (MUCH LESS INSTABILITY TODAY) THE DURATION OF
PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION YESTERDAY. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY (UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S) UNDER OVERCAST SKIES.

THE LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS NORTHWESTERN TEXAS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND BE OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS/SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA BY THIS EVENING. THE POSITION OF THE LOW AT THIS POINT WILL
PLACE THE PANHANDLES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND CAUSE HIGHER
PWAT VALUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS WILL LIMIT THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL AND REDUCE THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT. WILL KEEP THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AS IS FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE AND ALLOW IT TO EXPIRE
AT 7 PM THIS EVENING. LIGHTER SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THESE LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LOW MOVES INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PANHANDLES WILL REMAIN IN
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO AVERAGE AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. OVER THE WEEKEND WE COULD
SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...
     HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...
     ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BEAVER...TEXAS.


&&

$$

05/14






000
FXUS64 KAMA 270935
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
435 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE FIRST 48 HOURS. THE UPPER
CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
INTO NORTHWESTERN TEXAS THIS MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...SATELLITE BLENDED
PWAT IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE TOWARDS THE PANHANDLES
WITH VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 0.9 AND 1.2 INCHES. FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...THESE VALUES FALL BETWEEN THE 75TH PERCENTILE AND +2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS. THE STRONG DYNAMICS PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LOW AND THE
CONTINUAL SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
DOWNPOURS IN THE FORECAST TODAY. WHILE RAINFALL RATES WILL LIKELY NOT
BE AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY (MUCH LESS INSTABILITY TODAY) THE DURATION OF
PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION YESTERDAY. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY (UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S) UNDER OVERCAST SKIES.

THE LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS NORTHWESTERN TEXAS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND BE OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS/SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA BY THIS EVENING. THE POSITION OF THE LOW AT THIS POINT WILL
PLACE THE PANHANDLES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND CAUSE HIGHER
PWAT VALUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS WILL LIMIT THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL AND REDUCE THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT. WILL KEEP THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AS IS FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE AND ALLOW IT TO EXPIRE
AT 7 PM THIS EVENING. LIGHTER SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THESE LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LOW MOVES INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PANHANDLES WILL REMAIN IN
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO AVERAGE AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. OVER THE WEEKEND WE COULD
SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                49  37  61  39  71 /  80  30  20   5   0
BEAVER OK                  50  39  66  40  73 /  80  40   5   5   5
BOISE CITY OK              50  35  63  38  71 /  80  10   5   5   0
BORGER TX                  48  40  65  41  73 /  80  30  20   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              49  37  64  38  74 /  80  30  10   5   0
CANYON TX                  49  38  61  38  71 /  70  30  20   5   0
CLARENDON TX               53  42  62  43  72 /  80  50  20   5   5
DALHART TX                 47  36  63  38  72 /  80  20   5   5   0
GUYMON OK                  49  38  65  39  73 /  90  30   5   5   0
HEREFORD TX                49  38  62  38  72 /  70  30  10   5   0
LIPSCOMB TX                49  41  64  41  72 /  90  50  20   5   5
PAMPA TX                   48  39  61  41  71 /  80  40  20   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                53  43  63  42  72 /  80  60  20   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              56  45  64  43  74 /  80  60  20   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...
     HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...
     ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BEAVER...TEXAS.


&&

$$

05/14







000
FXUS64 KAMA 270935
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
435 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE FIRST 48 HOURS. THE UPPER
CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
INTO NORTHWESTERN TEXAS THIS MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...SATELLITE BLENDED
PWAT IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE TOWARDS THE PANHANDLES
WITH VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 0.9 AND 1.2 INCHES. FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...THESE VALUES FALL BETWEEN THE 75TH PERCENTILE AND +2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS. THE STRONG DYNAMICS PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LOW AND THE
CONTINUAL SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
DOWNPOURS IN THE FORECAST TODAY. WHILE RAINFALL RATES WILL LIKELY NOT
BE AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY (MUCH LESS INSTABILITY TODAY) THE DURATION OF
PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION YESTERDAY. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY (UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S) UNDER OVERCAST SKIES.

THE LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS NORTHWESTERN TEXAS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND BE OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS/SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA BY THIS EVENING. THE POSITION OF THE LOW AT THIS POINT WILL
PLACE THE PANHANDLES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND CAUSE HIGHER
PWAT VALUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS WILL LIMIT THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL AND REDUCE THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT. WILL KEEP THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AS IS FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE AND ALLOW IT TO EXPIRE
AT 7 PM THIS EVENING. LIGHTER SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THESE LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LOW MOVES INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PANHANDLES WILL REMAIN IN
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO AVERAGE AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. OVER THE WEEKEND WE COULD
SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                49  37  61  39  71 /  80  30  20   5   0
BEAVER OK                  50  39  66  40  73 /  80  40   5   5   5
BOISE CITY OK              50  35  63  38  71 /  80  10   5   5   0
BORGER TX                  48  40  65  41  73 /  80  30  20   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              49  37  64  38  74 /  80  30  10   5   0
CANYON TX                  49  38  61  38  71 /  70  30  20   5   0
CLARENDON TX               53  42  62  43  72 /  80  50  20   5   5
DALHART TX                 47  36  63  38  72 /  80  20   5   5   0
GUYMON OK                  49  38  65  39  73 /  90  30   5   5   0
HEREFORD TX                49  38  62  38  72 /  70  30  10   5   0
LIPSCOMB TX                49  41  64  41  72 /  90  50  20   5   5
PAMPA TX                   48  39  61  41  71 /  80  40  20   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                53  43  63  42  72 /  80  60  20   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              56  45  64  43  74 /  80  60  20   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...
     HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...
     ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BEAVER...TEXAS.


&&

$$

05/14






000
FXUS64 KAMA 270935
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
435 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE FIRST 48 HOURS. THE UPPER
CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
INTO NORTHWESTERN TEXAS THIS MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...SATELLITE BLENDED
PWAT IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE TOWARDS THE PANHANDLES
WITH VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 0.9 AND 1.2 INCHES. FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...THESE VALUES FALL BETWEEN THE 75TH PERCENTILE AND +2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS. THE STRONG DYNAMICS PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LOW AND THE
CONTINUAL SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
DOWNPOURS IN THE FORECAST TODAY. WHILE RAINFALL RATES WILL LIKELY NOT
BE AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY (MUCH LESS INSTABILITY TODAY) THE DURATION OF
PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION YESTERDAY. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY (UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S) UNDER OVERCAST SKIES.

THE LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS NORTHWESTERN TEXAS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND BE OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS/SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA BY THIS EVENING. THE POSITION OF THE LOW AT THIS POINT WILL
PLACE THE PANHANDLES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND CAUSE HIGHER
PWAT VALUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS WILL LIMIT THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL AND REDUCE THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT. WILL KEEP THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AS IS FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE AND ALLOW IT TO EXPIRE
AT 7 PM THIS EVENING. LIGHTER SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THESE LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LOW MOVES INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PANHANDLES WILL REMAIN IN
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO AVERAGE AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. OVER THE WEEKEND WE COULD
SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                49  37  61  39  71 /  80  30  20   5   0
BEAVER OK                  50  39  66  40  73 /  80  40   5   5   5
BOISE CITY OK              50  35  63  38  71 /  80  10   5   5   0
BORGER TX                  48  40  65  41  73 /  80  30  20   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              49  37  64  38  74 /  80  30  10   5   0
CANYON TX                  49  38  61  38  71 /  70  30  20   5   0
CLARENDON TX               53  42  62  43  72 /  80  50  20   5   5
DALHART TX                 47  36  63  38  72 /  80  20   5   5   0
GUYMON OK                  49  38  65  39  73 /  90  30   5   5   0
HEREFORD TX                49  38  62  38  72 /  70  30  10   5   0
LIPSCOMB TX                49  41  64  41  72 /  90  50  20   5   5
PAMPA TX                   48  39  61  41  71 /  80  40  20   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                53  43  63  42  72 /  80  60  20   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              56  45  64  43  74 /  80  60  20   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...
     HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...
     ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BEAVER...TEXAS.


&&

$$

05/14






000
FXUS64 KAMA 270353
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1053 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...

AN UPTICK IN RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AND THE TAFS TRY
TO REFLECT TIMING BUT AMENDMENTS WILL NEED TO BE MADE THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT TO THE WEATHER GROUP. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH CEILINGS AND
RESULTING CATEGORY. HAVE STARTED OFF OPTIMISTIC AT KDHT FOLLOWING
RECENT OB TRENDS BUT IFR CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY RETURN OVERNIGHT. AT
KAMA AND KGUY IFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MUCH
OF THE DAY WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AT KGUY BEFORE THEY DO AT KAMA

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY TUESDAY
MORNING. SEVERAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE
SHOULD HELP DEVELOP CONVECTION. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL MINOR VORT MAXES
WILL ALSO ROTATE NORTHEAST FROM THE UPPER LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL ALSO BE PRESENT OVER THE
PANHANDLES. WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...BELIEVE THAT THE PANHANDLES
MAY SEE SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ALSO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A
THREAT. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER
ABOUT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES VALID FROM NOW THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS AREA STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN-
PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS. THE RAIN WILL SLOWLY DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE
PANHANDLES.

THE PANHANDLES WILL DRY OUT AND WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
TRIES TO IMPINGE ON THE UPPER RIDGE.

HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL MAY EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME FLOODING ISSUES. WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...
     HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...
     ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...TEXAS.


&&

$$

17/11






000
FXUS64 KAMA 270353
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1053 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...

AN UPTICK IN RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AND THE TAFS TRY
TO REFLECT TIMING BUT AMENDMENTS WILL NEED TO BE MADE THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT TO THE WEATHER GROUP. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH CEILINGS AND
RESULTING CATEGORY. HAVE STARTED OFF OPTIMISTIC AT KDHT FOLLOWING
RECENT OB TRENDS BUT IFR CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY RETURN OVERNIGHT. AT
KAMA AND KGUY IFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MUCH
OF THE DAY WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AT KGUY BEFORE THEY DO AT KAMA

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY TUESDAY
MORNING. SEVERAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE
SHOULD HELP DEVELOP CONVECTION. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL MINOR VORT MAXES
WILL ALSO ROTATE NORTHEAST FROM THE UPPER LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL ALSO BE PRESENT OVER THE
PANHANDLES. WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...BELIEVE THAT THE PANHANDLES
MAY SEE SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ALSO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A
THREAT. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER
ABOUT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES VALID FROM NOW THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS AREA STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN-
PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS. THE RAIN WILL SLOWLY DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE
PANHANDLES.

THE PANHANDLES WILL DRY OUT AND WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
TRIES TO IMPINGE ON THE UPPER RIDGE.

HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL MAY EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME FLOODING ISSUES. WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...
     HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...
     ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...TEXAS.


&&

$$

17/11







000
FXUS64 KAMA 262321 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
621 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR FLYING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PANHANDLES WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY
TO A STEADY RAIN. AT ANY RATE...MVFR AND IFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
SOUTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. AMA
WILL HAVE THE BEST CONDITIONS AS FAR AS LOW CLOUDS AND VISIBILITIES AT
FIRST...BUT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY. DURING THE DAY
MONDAY ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE IN THE IFR RANGE WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AROUND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY TUESDAY
MORNING. SEVERAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE
SHOULD HELP DEVELOP CONVECTION. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL MINOR VORT MAXES
WILL ALSO ROTATE NORTHEAST FROM THE UPPER LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL ALSO BE PRESENT OVER THE
PANHANDLES. WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...BELIEVE THAT THE PANHANDLES
MAY SEE SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ALSO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A
THREAT. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER
ABOUT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES VALID FROM NOW THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS AREA STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN-
PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS. THE RAIN WILL SLOWLY DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE
PANHANDLES.

THE PANHANDLES WILL DRY OUT AND WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
TRIES TO IMPINGE ON THE UPPER RIDGE.

HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL MAY EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME FLOODING ISSUES. WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...
     HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...
     ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...TEXAS.


&&

$$

15/06







000
FXUS64 KAMA 262321 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
621 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR FLYING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PANHANDLES WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY
TO A STEADY RAIN. AT ANY RATE...MVFR AND IFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
SOUTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. AMA
WILL HAVE THE BEST CONDITIONS AS FAR AS LOW CLOUDS AND VISIBILITIES AT
FIRST...BUT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY. DURING THE DAY
MONDAY ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE IN THE IFR RANGE WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AROUND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY TUESDAY
MORNING. SEVERAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE
SHOULD HELP DEVELOP CONVECTION. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL MINOR VORT MAXES
WILL ALSO ROTATE NORTHEAST FROM THE UPPER LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL ALSO BE PRESENT OVER THE
PANHANDLES. WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...BELIEVE THAT THE PANHANDLES
MAY SEE SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ALSO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A
THREAT. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER
ABOUT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES VALID FROM NOW THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS AREA STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN-
PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS. THE RAIN WILL SLOWLY DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE
PANHANDLES.

THE PANHANDLES WILL DRY OUT AND WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
TRIES TO IMPINGE ON THE UPPER RIDGE.

HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL MAY EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME FLOODING ISSUES. WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...
     HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...
     ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...TEXAS.


&&

$$

15/06






000
FXUS64 KAMA 262321 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
621 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR FLYING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PANHANDLES WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY
TO A STEADY RAIN. AT ANY RATE...MVFR AND IFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
SOUTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. AMA
WILL HAVE THE BEST CONDITIONS AS FAR AS LOW CLOUDS AND VISIBILITIES AT
FIRST...BUT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY. DURING THE DAY
MONDAY ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE IN THE IFR RANGE WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AROUND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY TUESDAY
MORNING. SEVERAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE
SHOULD HELP DEVELOP CONVECTION. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL MINOR VORT MAXES
WILL ALSO ROTATE NORTHEAST FROM THE UPPER LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL ALSO BE PRESENT OVER THE
PANHANDLES. WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...BELIEVE THAT THE PANHANDLES
MAY SEE SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ALSO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A
THREAT. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER
ABOUT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES VALID FROM NOW THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS AREA STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN-
PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS. THE RAIN WILL SLOWLY DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE
PANHANDLES.

THE PANHANDLES WILL DRY OUT AND WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
TRIES TO IMPINGE ON THE UPPER RIDGE.

HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL MAY EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME FLOODING ISSUES. WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...
     HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...
     ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...TEXAS.


&&

$$

15/06







000
FXUS64 KAMA 262321 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
621 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR FLYING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PANHANDLES WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY
TO A STEADY RAIN. AT ANY RATE...MVFR AND IFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
SOUTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. AMA
WILL HAVE THE BEST CONDITIONS AS FAR AS LOW CLOUDS AND VISIBILITIES AT
FIRST...BUT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY. DURING THE DAY
MONDAY ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE IN THE IFR RANGE WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AROUND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY TUESDAY
MORNING. SEVERAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE
SHOULD HELP DEVELOP CONVECTION. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL MINOR VORT MAXES
WILL ALSO ROTATE NORTHEAST FROM THE UPPER LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL ALSO BE PRESENT OVER THE
PANHANDLES. WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...BELIEVE THAT THE PANHANDLES
MAY SEE SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ALSO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A
THREAT. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER
ABOUT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES VALID FROM NOW THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS AREA STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN-
PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS. THE RAIN WILL SLOWLY DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE
PANHANDLES.

THE PANHANDLES WILL DRY OUT AND WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
TRIES TO IMPINGE ON THE UPPER RIDGE.

HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL MAY EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME FLOODING ISSUES. WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...
     HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...
     ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...TEXAS.


&&

$$

15/06






000
FXUS64 KAMA 261959
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
259 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY TUESDAY
MORNING. SEVERAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE
SHOULD HELP DEVELOP CONVECTION. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL MINOR VORT MAXES
WILL ALSO ROTATE NORTHEAST FROM THE UPPER LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL ALSO BE PRESENT OVER THE
PANHANDLES. WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...BELIEVE THAT THE PANHANDLES
MAY SEE SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ALSO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A
THREAT. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER
ABOUT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES VALID FROM NOW THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS AREA STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN-
PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS. THE RAIN WILL SLOWLY DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE
PANHANDLES.

THE PANHANDLES WILL DRY OUT AND WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
TRIES TO IMPINGE ON THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL MAY EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME FLOODING ISSUES. WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                47  49  37  61  40 /  90  80  30  10  10
BEAVER OK                  46  49  39  65  41 / 100  90  40   5  10
BOISE CITY OK              42  50  35  62  39 / 100  80  10   5   5
BORGER TX                  47  48  40  64  42 /  90  90  30  10  10
BOYS RANCH TX              47  49  37  63  39 /  90  80  20  10   5
CANYON TX                  48  50  38  61  39 /  80  70  30  20  10
CLARENDON TX               51  54  42  62  44 /  80  80  40  20  10
DALHART TX                 44  46  36  62  39 / 100  80  20   5  10
GUYMON OK                  45  48  38  64  40 / 100  90  20   0  10
HEREFORD TX                47  49  38  61  39 /  80  70  20  10   5
LIPSCOMB TX                48  49  41  64  42 / 100  90  50  10  10
PAMPA TX                   47  48  39  61  42 /  90  90  40  10  10
SHAMROCK TX                52  54  43  63  43 /  90  80  50  20  10
WELLINGTON TX              54  56  45  64  44 /  80  80  50  20  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...
     HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...
     ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...TEXAS.


&&

$$

06/15







000
FXUS64 KAMA 261959
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
259 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY TUESDAY
MORNING. SEVERAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE
SHOULD HELP DEVELOP CONVECTION. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL MINOR VORT MAXES
WILL ALSO ROTATE NORTHEAST FROM THE UPPER LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL ALSO BE PRESENT OVER THE
PANHANDLES. WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...BELIEVE THAT THE PANHANDLES
MAY SEE SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ALSO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A
THREAT. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER
ABOUT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES VALID FROM NOW THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS AREA STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN-
PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS. THE RAIN WILL SLOWLY DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE
PANHANDLES.

THE PANHANDLES WILL DRY OUT AND WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
TRIES TO IMPINGE ON THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL MAY EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME FLOODING ISSUES. WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                47  49  37  61  40 /  90  80  30  10  10
BEAVER OK                  46  49  39  65  41 / 100  90  40   5  10
BOISE CITY OK              42  50  35  62  39 / 100  80  10   5   5
BORGER TX                  47  48  40  64  42 /  90  90  30  10  10
BOYS RANCH TX              47  49  37  63  39 /  90  80  20  10   5
CANYON TX                  48  50  38  61  39 /  80  70  30  20  10
CLARENDON TX               51  54  42  62  44 /  80  80  40  20  10
DALHART TX                 44  46  36  62  39 / 100  80  20   5  10
GUYMON OK                  45  48  38  64  40 / 100  90  20   0  10
HEREFORD TX                47  49  38  61  39 /  80  70  20  10   5
LIPSCOMB TX                48  49  41  64  42 / 100  90  50  10  10
PAMPA TX                   47  48  39  61  42 /  90  90  40  10  10
SHAMROCK TX                52  54  43  63  43 /  90  80  50  20  10
WELLINGTON TX              54  56  45  64  44 /  80  80  50  20  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...
     HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...
     ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...TEXAS.


&&

$$

06/15






000
FXUS64 KAMA 261806 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
106 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS TO START THE PERIOD...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AT KAMA AND KDHT...AND IFR CEILINGS AT KGUY. AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE BY AROUND
20Z TO 21Z WILL BRING TSRA TO NEAR KAMA AND KDHT THROUGH THE EVENING.
THEN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF +SHRA LIKELY AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER ABOUT
02Z WELL INTO MONDAY MORNING. IFR CEILINGS AND SOME RESTRICTION TO
VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY WITH THE ONSET OF HEAVY RAIN. UNCERTAINTY ON
PRECIPITATION START AND END TIMES IS HIGH...SO TAF AMENDMENTS AND
UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED THROUGHOUT TONIGHT.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO SHAVE SOME POPS IN THE NORTHEAST AND TO
BUMP UP POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST. COLD FRONT IS MOVING WESTWARD AND IT
IS NOW MOVING INTO OLDHAM AND DEAF SMITH COUNTIES. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE WEST THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. SO
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS ALSO SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTHWESTWARD. WE
ARE LOOKING TOWARD THE WEST AND KEEPING OUR EYE ON ANY VORT MAXES
THAT ARE ROTATING THIS WAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO UPPER LOW.
THE LATEST GFS MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE NEXT 6
HOURS. SO HAVE MOVED THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY STILL BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT BELIEVE THAT THE
BEST CHANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW ROLLING PLAINS. MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES TO OUR SOUTH AND THE PANHANDLES ARE
IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE TO THE NORTH OF IT. HAVE CONSIDERED ISSUING A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...BUT WANTED TO WAIT TO
SEE HOW THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WAS GOING TO EVOLVE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINAL SITES DURG THIS FCST CYCLE AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AT ALL TAF
SITES DURG THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON TIMING OF
THE VARIOUS WEATHER ELEMENTS. AS A RESULT...AMENDMENTS OR SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TAFS WILL BE PSBL AS THIS EVENT UNFOLDS TODAY.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 512 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A WET ENDING TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. A FRONT CURRENTLY
DRAPED OVER THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE IS BRINGING IN LOW CLOUDS
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S WITH NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN AREA AND
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER THIS MORNING.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW...SO HAVE DROPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE TODAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUDINESS. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE PANHANDLES AND THE RESULTANT AREA OF
INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NAM THE FASTEST WITH THE FRONT...DROPPING IT WELL INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY 00Z MONDAY AND ALSO SHOWING THE
STRONGEST GRADIENT OF DEWPOINTS ALONG THE DRYLINE. AREAS TO THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE PANHANDLES WILL HAVE THE GREATEST RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT FEEL THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE
SHEAR VALUES ARE HIGHER. IN ADDITION THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS...THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DEVELOPING CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AS IT SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA. THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE APPEAR TO RECEIVE THE MOST
RAIN THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EAST OF THE
REGION AND CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MID-WEEK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST AND ALLOWS THE AREA TO DRY OUT. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
BEGINS DE-AMPLIFYING BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY RETURN TO THE AREA.

HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. LOCALIZED AREAS OF
HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE...DEPENDENT FIRST UPON COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY...AND ALSO OVER THE
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE FROM THE TRACK OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. SOME OF THE RIVERS...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
MAY HAVE SIGNIFICANT RISES DUE TO THE HEAVY RAIN. ALSO...IF HEAVY
RAIN DEVELOPS OVER WHEELER... ROBERTS...GRAY AND HEMPHILL
COUNTIES...THEN WE COULD SEE SOME FLOODING ISSUES GIVEN THAT THESE
AREAS HAD HEAVY RAIN JUST A WEEK AND A HALF AGO.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/15






000
FXUS64 KAMA 261806 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
106 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS TO START THE PERIOD...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AT KAMA AND KDHT...AND IFR CEILINGS AT KGUY. AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE BY AROUND
20Z TO 21Z WILL BRING TSRA TO NEAR KAMA AND KDHT THROUGH THE EVENING.
THEN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF +SHRA LIKELY AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER ABOUT
02Z WELL INTO MONDAY MORNING. IFR CEILINGS AND SOME RESTRICTION TO
VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY WITH THE ONSET OF HEAVY RAIN. UNCERTAINTY ON
PRECIPITATION START AND END TIMES IS HIGH...SO TAF AMENDMENTS AND
UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED THROUGHOUT TONIGHT.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO SHAVE SOME POPS IN THE NORTHEAST AND TO
BUMP UP POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST. COLD FRONT IS MOVING WESTWARD AND IT
IS NOW MOVING INTO OLDHAM AND DEAF SMITH COUNTIES. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE WEST THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. SO
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS ALSO SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTHWESTWARD. WE
ARE LOOKING TOWARD THE WEST AND KEEPING OUR EYE ON ANY VORT MAXES
THAT ARE ROTATING THIS WAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO UPPER LOW.
THE LATEST GFS MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE NEXT 6
HOURS. SO HAVE MOVED THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY STILL BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT BELIEVE THAT THE
BEST CHANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW ROLLING PLAINS. MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES TO OUR SOUTH AND THE PANHANDLES ARE
IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE TO THE NORTH OF IT. HAVE CONSIDERED ISSUING A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...BUT WANTED TO WAIT TO
SEE HOW THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WAS GOING TO EVOLVE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINAL SITES DURG THIS FCST CYCLE AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AT ALL TAF
SITES DURG THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON TIMING OF
THE VARIOUS WEATHER ELEMENTS. AS A RESULT...AMENDMENTS OR SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TAFS WILL BE PSBL AS THIS EVENT UNFOLDS TODAY.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 512 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A WET ENDING TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. A FRONT CURRENTLY
DRAPED OVER THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE IS BRINGING IN LOW CLOUDS
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S WITH NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN AREA AND
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER THIS MORNING.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW...SO HAVE DROPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE TODAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUDINESS. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE PANHANDLES AND THE RESULTANT AREA OF
INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NAM THE FASTEST WITH THE FRONT...DROPPING IT WELL INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY 00Z MONDAY AND ALSO SHOWING THE
STRONGEST GRADIENT OF DEWPOINTS ALONG THE DRYLINE. AREAS TO THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE PANHANDLES WILL HAVE THE GREATEST RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT FEEL THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE
SHEAR VALUES ARE HIGHER. IN ADDITION THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS...THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DEVELOPING CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AS IT SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA. THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE APPEAR TO RECEIVE THE MOST
RAIN THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EAST OF THE
REGION AND CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MID-WEEK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST AND ALLOWS THE AREA TO DRY OUT. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
BEGINS DE-AMPLIFYING BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY RETURN TO THE AREA.

HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. LOCALIZED AREAS OF
HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE...DEPENDENT FIRST UPON COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY...AND ALSO OVER THE
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE FROM THE TRACK OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. SOME OF THE RIVERS...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
MAY HAVE SIGNIFICANT RISES DUE TO THE HEAVY RAIN. ALSO...IF HEAVY
RAIN DEVELOPS OVER WHEELER... ROBERTS...GRAY AND HEMPHILL
COUNTIES...THEN WE COULD SEE SOME FLOODING ISSUES GIVEN THAT THESE
AREAS HAD HEAVY RAIN JUST A WEEK AND A HALF AGO.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/15







000
FXUS64 KAMA 261748 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1248 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO SHAVE SOME POPS IN THE NORTHEAST AND TO
BUMP UP POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST. COLD FRONT IS MOVING WESTWARD AND IT
IS NOW MOVING INTO OLDHAM AND DEAF SMITH COUNTIES. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE WEST THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. SO
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS ALSO SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTHWESTWARD. WE
ARE LOOKING TOWARD THE WEST AND KEEPING OUR EYE ON ANY VORT MAXES
THAT ARE ROTATING THIS WAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO UPPER LOW.
THE LATEST GFS MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE NEXT 6
HOURS. SO HAVE MOVED THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY STILL BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT BELIEVE THAT THE
BEST CHANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW ROLLING PLAINS. MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES TO OUR SOUTH AND THE PANHANDLES ARE
IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE TO THE NORTH OF IT. HAVE CONSIDERED ISSUING A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...BUT WANTED TO WAIT TO
SEE HOW THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WAS GOING TO EVOLVE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINAL SITES DURG THIS FCST CYCLE AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AT ALL TAF
SITES DURG THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON TIMING OF
THE VARIOUS WEATHER ELEMENTS. AS A RESULT...AMENDMENTS OR SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TAFS WILL BE PSBL AS THIS EVENT UNFOLDS TODAY.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 512 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A WET ENDING TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. A FRONT CURRENTLY
DRAPED OVER THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE IS BRINGING IN LOW CLOUDS
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S WITH NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN AREA AND
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER THIS MORNING.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW...SO HAVE DROPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE TODAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUDINESS. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE PANHANDLES AND THE RESULTANT AREA OF
INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NAM THE FASTEST WITH THE FRONT...DROPPING IT WELL INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY 00Z MONDAY AND ALSO SHOWING THE
STRONGEST GRADIENT OF DEWPOINTS ALONG THE DRYLINE. AREAS TO THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE PANHANDLES WILL HAVE THE GREATEST RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT FEEL THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE
SHEAR VALUES ARE HIGHER. IN ADDITION THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS...THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DEVELOPING CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AS IT SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA. THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE APPEAR TO RECEIVE THE MOST
RAIN THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EAST OF THE
REGION AND CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MID-WEEK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST AND ALLOWS THE AREA TO DRY OUT. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
BEGINS DE-AMPLIFYING BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY RETURN TO THE AREA.

HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. LOCALIZED AREAS OF
HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE...DEPENDENT FIRST UPON COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY...AND ALSO OVER THE
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE FROM THE TRACK OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. SOME OF THE RIVERS...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
MAY HAVE SIGNIFICANT RISES DUE TO THE HEAVY RAIN. ALSO...IF HEAVY
RAIN DEVELOPS OVER WHEELER... ROBERTS...GRAY AND HEMPHILL
COUNTIES...THEN WE COULD SEE SOME FLOODING ISSUES GIVEN THAT THESE
AREAS HAD HEAVY RAIN JUST A WEEK AND A HALF AGO.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/15







000
FXUS64 KAMA 261748 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1248 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO SHAVE SOME POPS IN THE NORTHEAST AND TO
BUMP UP POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST. COLD FRONT IS MOVING WESTWARD AND IT
IS NOW MOVING INTO OLDHAM AND DEAF SMITH COUNTIES. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE WEST THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. SO
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS ALSO SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTHWESTWARD. WE
ARE LOOKING TOWARD THE WEST AND KEEPING OUR EYE ON ANY VORT MAXES
THAT ARE ROTATING THIS WAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO UPPER LOW.
THE LATEST GFS MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE NEXT 6
HOURS. SO HAVE MOVED THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY STILL BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT BELIEVE THAT THE
BEST CHANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW ROLLING PLAINS. MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES TO OUR SOUTH AND THE PANHANDLES ARE
IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE TO THE NORTH OF IT. HAVE CONSIDERED ISSUING A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...BUT WANTED TO WAIT TO
SEE HOW THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WAS GOING TO EVOLVE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINAL SITES DURG THIS FCST CYCLE AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AT ALL TAF
SITES DURG THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON TIMING OF
THE VARIOUS WEATHER ELEMENTS. AS A RESULT...AMENDMENTS OR SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TAFS WILL BE PSBL AS THIS EVENT UNFOLDS TODAY.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 512 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A WET ENDING TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. A FRONT CURRENTLY
DRAPED OVER THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE IS BRINGING IN LOW CLOUDS
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S WITH NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN AREA AND
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER THIS MORNING.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW...SO HAVE DROPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE TODAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUDINESS. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE PANHANDLES AND THE RESULTANT AREA OF
INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NAM THE FASTEST WITH THE FRONT...DROPPING IT WELL INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY 00Z MONDAY AND ALSO SHOWING THE
STRONGEST GRADIENT OF DEWPOINTS ALONG THE DRYLINE. AREAS TO THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE PANHANDLES WILL HAVE THE GREATEST RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT FEEL THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE
SHEAR VALUES ARE HIGHER. IN ADDITION THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS...THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DEVELOPING CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AS IT SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA. THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE APPEAR TO RECEIVE THE MOST
RAIN THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EAST OF THE
REGION AND CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MID-WEEK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST AND ALLOWS THE AREA TO DRY OUT. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
BEGINS DE-AMPLIFYING BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY RETURN TO THE AREA.

HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. LOCALIZED AREAS OF
HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE...DEPENDENT FIRST UPON COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY...AND ALSO OVER THE
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE FROM THE TRACK OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. SOME OF THE RIVERS...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
MAY HAVE SIGNIFICANT RISES DUE TO THE HEAVY RAIN. ALSO...IF HEAVY
RAIN DEVELOPS OVER WHEELER... ROBERTS...GRAY AND HEMPHILL
COUNTIES...THEN WE COULD SEE SOME FLOODING ISSUES GIVEN THAT THESE
AREAS HAD HEAVY RAIN JUST A WEEK AND A HALF AGO.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/15






000
FXUS64 KAMA 261748 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1248 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO SHAVE SOME POPS IN THE NORTHEAST AND TO
BUMP UP POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST. COLD FRONT IS MOVING WESTWARD AND IT
IS NOW MOVING INTO OLDHAM AND DEAF SMITH COUNTIES. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE WEST THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. SO
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS ALSO SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTHWESTWARD. WE
ARE LOOKING TOWARD THE WEST AND KEEPING OUR EYE ON ANY VORT MAXES
THAT ARE ROTATING THIS WAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO UPPER LOW.
THE LATEST GFS MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE NEXT 6
HOURS. SO HAVE MOVED THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY STILL BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT BELIEVE THAT THE
BEST CHANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW ROLLING PLAINS. MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES TO OUR SOUTH AND THE PANHANDLES ARE
IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE TO THE NORTH OF IT. HAVE CONSIDERED ISSUING A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...BUT WANTED TO WAIT TO
SEE HOW THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WAS GOING TO EVOLVE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINAL SITES DURG THIS FCST CYCLE AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AT ALL TAF
SITES DURG THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON TIMING OF
THE VARIOUS WEATHER ELEMENTS. AS A RESULT...AMENDMENTS OR SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TAFS WILL BE PSBL AS THIS EVENT UNFOLDS TODAY.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 512 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A WET ENDING TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. A FRONT CURRENTLY
DRAPED OVER THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE IS BRINGING IN LOW CLOUDS
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S WITH NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN AREA AND
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER THIS MORNING.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW...SO HAVE DROPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE TODAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUDINESS. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE PANHANDLES AND THE RESULTANT AREA OF
INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NAM THE FASTEST WITH THE FRONT...DROPPING IT WELL INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY 00Z MONDAY AND ALSO SHOWING THE
STRONGEST GRADIENT OF DEWPOINTS ALONG THE DRYLINE. AREAS TO THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE PANHANDLES WILL HAVE THE GREATEST RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT FEEL THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE
SHEAR VALUES ARE HIGHER. IN ADDITION THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS...THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DEVELOPING CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AS IT SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA. THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE APPEAR TO RECEIVE THE MOST
RAIN THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EAST OF THE
REGION AND CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MID-WEEK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST AND ALLOWS THE AREA TO DRY OUT. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
BEGINS DE-AMPLIFYING BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY RETURN TO THE AREA.

HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. LOCALIZED AREAS OF
HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE...DEPENDENT FIRST UPON COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY...AND ALSO OVER THE
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE FROM THE TRACK OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. SOME OF THE RIVERS...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
MAY HAVE SIGNIFICANT RISES DUE TO THE HEAVY RAIN. ALSO...IF HEAVY
RAIN DEVELOPS OVER WHEELER... ROBERTS...GRAY AND HEMPHILL
COUNTIES...THEN WE COULD SEE SOME FLOODING ISSUES GIVEN THAT THESE
AREAS HAD HEAVY RAIN JUST A WEEK AND A HALF AGO.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/15







000
FXUS64 KAMA 261748 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1248 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO SHAVE SOME POPS IN THE NORTHEAST AND TO
BUMP UP POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST. COLD FRONT IS MOVING WESTWARD AND IT
IS NOW MOVING INTO OLDHAM AND DEAF SMITH COUNTIES. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE WEST THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. SO
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS ALSO SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTHWESTWARD. WE
ARE LOOKING TOWARD THE WEST AND KEEPING OUR EYE ON ANY VORT MAXES
THAT ARE ROTATING THIS WAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO UPPER LOW.
THE LATEST GFS MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE NEXT 6
HOURS. SO HAVE MOVED THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY STILL BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT BELIEVE THAT THE
BEST CHANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW ROLLING PLAINS. MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES TO OUR SOUTH AND THE PANHANDLES ARE
IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE TO THE NORTH OF IT. HAVE CONSIDERED ISSUING A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...BUT WANTED TO WAIT TO
SEE HOW THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WAS GOING TO EVOLVE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINAL SITES DURG THIS FCST CYCLE AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AT ALL TAF
SITES DURG THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON TIMING OF
THE VARIOUS WEATHER ELEMENTS. AS A RESULT...AMENDMENTS OR SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TAFS WILL BE PSBL AS THIS EVENT UNFOLDS TODAY.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 512 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A WET ENDING TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. A FRONT CURRENTLY
DRAPED OVER THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE IS BRINGING IN LOW CLOUDS
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S WITH NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN AREA AND
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER THIS MORNING.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW...SO HAVE DROPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE TODAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUDINESS. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE PANHANDLES AND THE RESULTANT AREA OF
INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NAM THE FASTEST WITH THE FRONT...DROPPING IT WELL INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY 00Z MONDAY AND ALSO SHOWING THE
STRONGEST GRADIENT OF DEWPOINTS ALONG THE DRYLINE. AREAS TO THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE PANHANDLES WILL HAVE THE GREATEST RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT FEEL THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE
SHEAR VALUES ARE HIGHER. IN ADDITION THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS...THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DEVELOPING CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AS IT SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA. THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE APPEAR TO RECEIVE THE MOST
RAIN THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EAST OF THE
REGION AND CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MID-WEEK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST AND ALLOWS THE AREA TO DRY OUT. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
BEGINS DE-AMPLIFYING BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY RETURN TO THE AREA.

HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. LOCALIZED AREAS OF
HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE...DEPENDENT FIRST UPON COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY...AND ALSO OVER THE
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE FROM THE TRACK OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. SOME OF THE RIVERS...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
MAY HAVE SIGNIFICANT RISES DUE TO THE HEAVY RAIN. ALSO...IF HEAVY
RAIN DEVELOPS OVER WHEELER... ROBERTS...GRAY AND HEMPHILL
COUNTIES...THEN WE COULD SEE SOME FLOODING ISSUES GIVEN THAT THESE
AREAS HAD HEAVY RAIN JUST A WEEK AND A HALF AGO.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/15






000
FXUS64 KAMA 261200 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
700 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINAL SITES DURG THIS FCST CYCLE AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AT ALL TAF
SITES DURG THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON TIMING OF
THE VARIOUS WEATHER ELEMENTS. AS A RESULT...AMENDMENTS OR SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TAFS WILL BE PSBL AS THIS EVENT UNFOLDS TODAY.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 512 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A WET ENDING TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. A FRONT CURRENTLY
DRAPED OVER THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE IS BRINGING IN LOW CLOUDS
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S WITH NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN AREA AND
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER THIS MORNING.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW...SO HAVE DROPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE TODAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUDINESS. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE PANHANDLES AND THE RESULTANT AREA OF
INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NAM THE FASTEST WITH THE FRONT...DROPPING IT WELL INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY 00Z MONDAY AND ALSO SHOWING THE
STRONGEST GRADIENT OF DEWPOINTS ALONG THE DRYLINE. AREAS TO THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE PANHANDLES WILL HAVE THE GREATEST RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT FEEL THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE
SHEAR VALUES ARE HIGHER. IN ADDITION THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS...THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DEVELOPING CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AS IT SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA. THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE APPEAR TO RECEIVE THE MOST
RAIN THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EAST OF THE
REGION AND CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MID-WEEK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST AND ALLOWS THE AREA TO DRY OUT. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
BEGINS DE-AMPLIFYING BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY RETURN TO THE AREA.

HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. LOCALIZED AREAS OF
HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE...DEPENDENT FIRST UPON COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY...AND ALSO OVER THE
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE FROM THE TRACK OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. SOME OF THE RIVERS...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
MAY HAVE SIGNIFICANT RISES DUE TO THE HEAVY RAIN. ALSO...IF HEAVY
RAIN DEVELOPS OVER WHEELER... ROBERTS...GRAY AND HEMPHILL
COUNTIES...THEN WE COULD SEE SOME FLOODING ISSUES GIVEN THAT THESE
AREAS HAD HEAVY RAIN JUST A WEEK AND A HALF AGO.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 261200 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
700 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINAL SITES DURG THIS FCST CYCLE AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AT ALL TAF
SITES DURG THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON TIMING OF
THE VARIOUS WEATHER ELEMENTS. AS A RESULT...AMENDMENTS OR SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TAFS WILL BE PSBL AS THIS EVENT UNFOLDS TODAY.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 512 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A WET ENDING TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. A FRONT CURRENTLY
DRAPED OVER THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE IS BRINGING IN LOW CLOUDS
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S WITH NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN AREA AND
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER THIS MORNING.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW...SO HAVE DROPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE TODAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUDINESS. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE PANHANDLES AND THE RESULTANT AREA OF
INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NAM THE FASTEST WITH THE FRONT...DROPPING IT WELL INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY 00Z MONDAY AND ALSO SHOWING THE
STRONGEST GRADIENT OF DEWPOINTS ALONG THE DRYLINE. AREAS TO THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE PANHANDLES WILL HAVE THE GREATEST RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT FEEL THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE
SHEAR VALUES ARE HIGHER. IN ADDITION THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS...THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DEVELOPING CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AS IT SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA. THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE APPEAR TO RECEIVE THE MOST
RAIN THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EAST OF THE
REGION AND CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MID-WEEK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST AND ALLOWS THE AREA TO DRY OUT. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
BEGINS DE-AMPLIFYING BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY RETURN TO THE AREA.

HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. LOCALIZED AREAS OF
HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE...DEPENDENT FIRST UPON COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY...AND ALSO OVER THE
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE FROM THE TRACK OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. SOME OF THE RIVERS...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
MAY HAVE SIGNIFICANT RISES DUE TO THE HEAVY RAIN. ALSO...IF HEAVY
RAIN DEVELOPS OVER WHEELER... ROBERTS...GRAY AND HEMPHILL
COUNTIES...THEN WE COULD SEE SOME FLOODING ISSUES GIVEN THAT THESE
AREAS HAD HEAVY RAIN JUST A WEEK AND A HALF AGO.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 261200 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
700 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINAL SITES DURG THIS FCST CYCLE AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AT ALL TAF
SITES DURG THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON TIMING OF
THE VARIOUS WEATHER ELEMENTS. AS A RESULT...AMENDMENTS OR SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TAFS WILL BE PSBL AS THIS EVENT UNFOLDS TODAY.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 512 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A WET ENDING TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. A FRONT CURRENTLY
DRAPED OVER THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE IS BRINGING IN LOW CLOUDS
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S WITH NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN AREA AND
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER THIS MORNING.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW...SO HAVE DROPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE TODAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUDINESS. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE PANHANDLES AND THE RESULTANT AREA OF
INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NAM THE FASTEST WITH THE FRONT...DROPPING IT WELL INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY 00Z MONDAY AND ALSO SHOWING THE
STRONGEST GRADIENT OF DEWPOINTS ALONG THE DRYLINE. AREAS TO THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE PANHANDLES WILL HAVE THE GREATEST RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT FEEL THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE
SHEAR VALUES ARE HIGHER. IN ADDITION THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS...THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DEVELOPING CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AS IT SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA. THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE APPEAR TO RECEIVE THE MOST
RAIN THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EAST OF THE
REGION AND CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MID-WEEK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST AND ALLOWS THE AREA TO DRY OUT. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
BEGINS DE-AMPLIFYING BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY RETURN TO THE AREA.

HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. LOCALIZED AREAS OF
HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE...DEPENDENT FIRST UPON COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY...AND ALSO OVER THE
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE FROM THE TRACK OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. SOME OF THE RIVERS...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
MAY HAVE SIGNIFICANT RISES DUE TO THE HEAVY RAIN. ALSO...IF HEAVY
RAIN DEVELOPS OVER WHEELER... ROBERTS...GRAY AND HEMPHILL
COUNTIES...THEN WE COULD SEE SOME FLOODING ISSUES GIVEN THAT THESE
AREAS HAD HEAVY RAIN JUST A WEEK AND A HALF AGO.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 261200 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
700 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINAL SITES DURG THIS FCST CYCLE AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AT ALL TAF
SITES DURG THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON TIMING OF
THE VARIOUS WEATHER ELEMENTS. AS A RESULT...AMENDMENTS OR SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TAFS WILL BE PSBL AS THIS EVENT UNFOLDS TODAY.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 512 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A WET ENDING TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. A FRONT CURRENTLY
DRAPED OVER THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE IS BRINGING IN LOW CLOUDS
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S WITH NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN AREA AND
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER THIS MORNING.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW...SO HAVE DROPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE TODAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUDINESS. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE PANHANDLES AND THE RESULTANT AREA OF
INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NAM THE FASTEST WITH THE FRONT...DROPPING IT WELL INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY 00Z MONDAY AND ALSO SHOWING THE
STRONGEST GRADIENT OF DEWPOINTS ALONG THE DRYLINE. AREAS TO THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE PANHANDLES WILL HAVE THE GREATEST RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT FEEL THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE
SHEAR VALUES ARE HIGHER. IN ADDITION THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS...THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DEVELOPING CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AS IT SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA. THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE APPEAR TO RECEIVE THE MOST
RAIN THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EAST OF THE
REGION AND CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MID-WEEK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST AND ALLOWS THE AREA TO DRY OUT. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
BEGINS DE-AMPLIFYING BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY RETURN TO THE AREA.

HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. LOCALIZED AREAS OF
HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE...DEPENDENT FIRST UPON COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY...AND ALSO OVER THE
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE FROM THE TRACK OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. SOME OF THE RIVERS...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
MAY HAVE SIGNIFICANT RISES DUE TO THE HEAVY RAIN. ALSO...IF HEAVY
RAIN DEVELOPS OVER WHEELER... ROBERTS...GRAY AND HEMPHILL
COUNTIES...THEN WE COULD SEE SOME FLOODING ISSUES GIVEN THAT THESE
AREAS HAD HEAVY RAIN JUST A WEEK AND A HALF AGO.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 261012
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
512 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A WET ENDING TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. A FRONT CURRENTLY
DRAPED OVER THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE IS BRINGING IN LOW CLOUDS
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S WITH NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN AREA AND
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER THIS MORNING.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW...SO HAVE DROPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE TODAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUDINESS. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE PANHANDLES AND THE RESULTANT AREA OF
INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NAM THE FASTEST WITH THE FRONT...DROPPING IT WELL INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY 00Z MONDAY AND ALSO SHOWING THE
STRONGEST GRADIENT OF DEWPOINTS ALONG THE DRYLINE. AREAS TO THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE PANHANDLES WILL HAVE THE GREATEST RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT FEEL THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE
SHEAR VALUES ARE HIGHER. IN ADDITION THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS...THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DEVELOPING CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AS IT SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA. THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE APPEAR TO RECEIVE THE MOST
RAIN THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EAST OF THE
REGION AND CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MID-WEEK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST AND ALLOWS THE AREA TO DRY OUT. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
BEGINS DE-AMPLIFYING BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY RETURN TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. LOCALIZED AREAS OF
HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE...DEPENDENT FIRST UPON COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY...AND ALSO OVER THE
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE FROM THE TRACK OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. SOME OF THE RIVERS...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
MAY HAVE SIGNIFICANT RISES DUE TO THE HEAVY RAIN. ALSO...IF HEAVY
RAIN DEVELOPS OVER WHEELER... ROBERTS...GRAY AND HEMPHILL
COUNTIES...THEN WE COULD SEE SOME FLOODING ISSUES GIVEN THAT THESE
AREAS HAD HEAVY RAIN JUST A WEEK AND A HALF AGO.

&&

ELSENHEIMER

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                77  47  53  38  61 /  40  60  70  40  20
BEAVER OK                  66  45  51  40  64 /  60  80  80  40  10
BOISE CITY OK              62  42  47  36  61 /  70  80  80  30  10
BORGER TX                  75  48  51  42  64 /  50  70  80  50  20
BOYS RANCH TX              78  47  52  39  63 /  40  70  70  40  20
CANYON TX                  77  47  54  38  61 /  30  60  60  40  20
CLARENDON TX               77  50  57  41  62 /  40  50  70  50  20
DALHART TX                 72  44  49  36  62 /  50  80  70  30  10
GUYMON OK                  64  45  50  39  64 /  60  80  80  40  10
HEREFORD TX                78  46  54  37  61 /  30  50  60  40  20
LIPSCOMB TX                68  48  50  42  63 /  60  80  90  50  20
PAMPA TX                   72  47  51  39  60 /  50  70  80  50  20
SHAMROCK TX                75  52  57  44  63 /  40  70  80  50  30
WELLINGTON TX              79  54  60  46  64 /  40  60  70  50  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

02/18







000
FXUS64 KAMA 261012
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
512 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A WET ENDING TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. A FRONT CURRENTLY
DRAPED OVER THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE IS BRINGING IN LOW CLOUDS
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S WITH NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN AREA AND
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER THIS MORNING.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW...SO HAVE DROPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE TODAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUDINESS. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE PANHANDLES AND THE RESULTANT AREA OF
INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NAM THE FASTEST WITH THE FRONT...DROPPING IT WELL INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY 00Z MONDAY AND ALSO SHOWING THE
STRONGEST GRADIENT OF DEWPOINTS ALONG THE DRYLINE. AREAS TO THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE PANHANDLES WILL HAVE THE GREATEST RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT FEEL THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE
SHEAR VALUES ARE HIGHER. IN ADDITION THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS...THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DEVELOPING CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AS IT SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA. THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE APPEAR TO RECEIVE THE MOST
RAIN THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EAST OF THE
REGION AND CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MID-WEEK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST AND ALLOWS THE AREA TO DRY OUT. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
BEGINS DE-AMPLIFYING BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY RETURN TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. LOCALIZED AREAS OF
HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE...DEPENDENT FIRST UPON COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY...AND ALSO OVER THE
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE FROM THE TRACK OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. SOME OF THE RIVERS...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
MAY HAVE SIGNIFICANT RISES DUE TO THE HEAVY RAIN. ALSO...IF HEAVY
RAIN DEVELOPS OVER WHEELER... ROBERTS...GRAY AND HEMPHILL
COUNTIES...THEN WE COULD SEE SOME FLOODING ISSUES GIVEN THAT THESE
AREAS HAD HEAVY RAIN JUST A WEEK AND A HALF AGO.

&&

ELSENHEIMER

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                77  47  53  38  61 /  40  60  70  40  20
BEAVER OK                  66  45  51  40  64 /  60  80  80  40  10
BOISE CITY OK              62  42  47  36  61 /  70  80  80  30  10
BORGER TX                  75  48  51  42  64 /  50  70  80  50  20
BOYS RANCH TX              78  47  52  39  63 /  40  70  70  40  20
CANYON TX                  77  47  54  38  61 /  30  60  60  40  20
CLARENDON TX               77  50  57  41  62 /  40  50  70  50  20
DALHART TX                 72  44  49  36  62 /  50  80  70  30  10
GUYMON OK                  64  45  50  39  64 /  60  80  80  40  10
HEREFORD TX                78  46  54  37  61 /  30  50  60  40  20
LIPSCOMB TX                68  48  50  42  63 /  60  80  90  50  20
PAMPA TX                   72  47  51  39  60 /  50  70  80  50  20
SHAMROCK TX                75  52  57  44  63 /  40  70  80  50  30
WELLINGTON TX              79  54  60  46  64 /  40  60  70  50  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

02/18






000
FXUS64 KAMA 260341
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1041 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GUYMON TAF SITE AROUND 08Z TO 12Z
SUNDAY...AND THEN ACROSS THE DALHART TAF SITE BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z
SUNDAY...AND THEN AT THE AMARILLO TAF SITE BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z
SUNDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL BECOME EAST TO
NORTHEAST FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR TO IFR AND POSSIBLY
EVEN LIFR SHORTLY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. KEPT THE AMARILLO
TAF SITE VFR UNTIL AROUND 00Z OR SO MONDAY DUE TO LOWER
CONFIDENCE...HOWEVER THESE LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES COULD
IMPACT THE AMARILLO TAF SITE AS WELL AFTER 14Z TO 18Z SUNDAY OR
SOONER DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 19Z TO 21Z SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD AT THE GUYMON AND
DALHART TAF SITES...WITH THE CONVECTION AFFECTING THE AMARILLO TAF
SITE AFTER 23Z SUNDAY TO 01Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
AN UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE THREE TAF SITES FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE
GUYMON TAF SITE AROUND 01Z TO 05Z SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE AMARILLO AND
DALHART TAF SITES BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT
THE GUYMON TAF SITE AFTER 10Z TO 12Z SUNDAY. WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS...THEN SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT INCREASING TO AROUND 15 TO 25
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONVECTION POSSIBLE MAINLY AT THE GUYMON
AND DALHART TAF SITES AFTER 18Z TO 20Z SUNDAY...WILL MENTION VCTS
REMARK FOR NOW SINCE THIS IS DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SWING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND IT WILL GET CUTOFF FROM THE PARENT TROUGH
AS IT MOVES INTO NEW MEXICO BY MID DAY SUNDAY. THIS UPPER LOW
IS EXPECTED TO THEN SLOWLY MOVE EAST ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR AND THEN INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT.

THE PANHANDLES STAND TO RECEIVE A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN FROM THIS
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE STRETCHED
FROM THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TO THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE. AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND INSTABILITY MOVE
ACROSS THIS FRONT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL ALSO HELP
TO PROVIDE INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THESE DEVELOPING STORMS.
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THEY TRAVEL
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH THIS
UPPER STORM SYSTEM AS IT MOVES ACROSS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
WILL INCREASE AND WE WILL SEE THICKNESSES DIVERGE ACROSS US...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.

THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES SHOULD BE TO THE LEFT OF THE UPPER LOW
TRACK WHICH WILL PUT THIS AREA IN THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
MONDAY. THE RAIN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT LINGERING SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST ON
TUESDAY.

THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF 3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE. SOME OF THE RIVERS...
MAINLY IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY HAVE SIGNIFICANT RISES DUE
TO THE HEAVY RAIN. ALSO...IF HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS OVER WHEELER...
ROBERTS...GRAY AND HEMPHILL COUNTIES...THEN WE COULD SEE SOME
FLOODING ISSUES GIVEN THAT THESE AREAS HAD HEAVY RAIN JUST A WEEK
AND A HALF AGO.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/17







000
FXUS64 KAMA 252342
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
642 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
AN UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE THREE TAF SITES FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE
GUYMON TAF SITE AROUND 01Z TO 05Z SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE AMARILLO AND
DALHART TAF SITES BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT
THE GUYMON TAF SITE AFTER 10Z TO 12Z SUNDAY. WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS...THEN SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT INCREASING TO AROUND 15 TO 25
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONVECTION POSSIBLE MAINLY AT THE GUYMON
AND DALHART TAF SITES AFTER 18Z TO 20Z SUNDAY...WILL MENTION VCTS
REMARK FOR NOW SINCE THIS IS DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SWING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND IT WILL GET CUTOFF FROM THE PARENT TROUGH
AS IT MOVES INTO NEW MEXICO BY MID DAY SUNDAY. THIS UPPER LOW
IS EXPECTED TO THEN SLOWLY MOVE EAST ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR AND THEN INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT.

THE PANHANDLES STAND TO RECEIVE A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN FROM THIS
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE STRETCHED
FROM THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TO THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE. AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND INSTABILITY MOVE
ACROSS THIS FRONT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL ALSO HELP
TO PROVIDE INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THESE DEVELOPING STORMS.
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THEY TRAVEL
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH THIS
UPPER STORM SYSTEM AS IT MOVES ACROSS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
WILL INCREASE AND WE WILL SEE THICKNESSES DIVERGE ACROSS US...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.

THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES SHOULD BE TO THE LEFT OF THE UPPER LOW
TRACK WHICH WILL PUT THIS AREA IN THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
MONDAY. THE RAIN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT LINGERING SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST ON
TUESDAY.

THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF 3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE. SOME OF THE RIVERS...
MAINLY IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY HAVE SIGNIFICANT RISES DUE
TO THE HEAVY RAIN. ALSO...IF HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS OVER WHEELER...
ROBERTS...GRAY AND HEMPHILL COUNTIES...THEN WE COULD SEE SOME
FLOODING ISSUES GIVEN THAT THESE AREAS HAD HEAVY RAIN JUST A WEEK
AND A HALF AGO.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/17







000
FXUS64 KAMA 252005
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
305 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SWING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND IT WILL GET CUTOFF FROM THE PARENT TROUGH
AS IT MOVES INTO NEW MEXICO BY MID DAY SUNDAY. THIS UPPER LOW
IS EXPECTED TO THEN SLOWLY MOVE EAST ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR AND THEN INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT.

THE PANHANDLES STAND TO RECEIVE A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN FROM THIS
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE STRETCHED
FROM THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TO THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE. AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND INSTABILITY MOVE
ACROSS THIS FRONT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL ALSO HELP
TO PROVIDE INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THESE DEVELOPING STORMS.
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THEY TRAVEL
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH THIS
UPPER STORM SYSTEM AS IT MOVES ACROSS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
WILL INCREASE AND WE WILL SEE THICKNESSES DIVERGE ACROSS US...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.

THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES SHOULD BE TO THE LEFT OF THE UPPER LOW
TRACK WHICH WILL PUT THIS AREA IN THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
MONDAY. THE RAIN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT LINGERING SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST ON
TUESDAY.

THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF 3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE. SOME OF THE RIVERS...
MAINLY IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY HAVE SIGNIFICANT RISES DUE
TO THE HEAVY RAIN. ALSO...IF HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS OVER WHEELER...
ROBERTS...GRAY AND HEMPHILL COUNTIES...THEN WE COULD SEE SOME
FLOODING ISSUES GIVEN THAT THESE AREAS HAD HEAVY RAIN JUST A WEEK
AND A HALF AGO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                50  77  48  55  40 /   5  30  50  50  40
BEAVER OK                  52  64  47  49  41 /  20  70  70  80  50
BOISE CITY OK              46  65  44  44  37 /  20  70  80  80  40
BORGER TX                  51  77  49  53  42 /   5  50  70  60  40
BOYS RANCH TX              49  78  48  54  41 /   5  30  60  60  40
CANYON TX                  50  78  47  57  40 /   5  30  50  50  40
CLARENDON TX               53  81  52  59  43 /   5  30  50  60  50
DALHART TX                 47  73  46  48  39 /  20  40  70  70  30
GUYMON OK                  50  64  47  47  40 /  20  70  80  80  40
HEREFORD TX                49  76  45  56  40 /   5  30  40  40  40
LIPSCOMB TX                52  68  49  49  43 /  20  70  70  80  50
PAMPA TX                   50  74  49  53  41 /   5  40  70  60  40
SHAMROCK TX                51  79  53  59  45 /   5  30  50  70  50
WELLINGTON TX              52  83  55  62  46 /   5  30  50  70  50

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/15







000
FXUS64 KAMA 252005
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
305 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SWING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND IT WILL GET CUTOFF FROM THE PARENT TROUGH
AS IT MOVES INTO NEW MEXICO BY MID DAY SUNDAY. THIS UPPER LOW
IS EXPECTED TO THEN SLOWLY MOVE EAST ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR AND THEN INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT.

THE PANHANDLES STAND TO RECEIVE A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN FROM THIS
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE STRETCHED
FROM THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TO THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE. AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND INSTABILITY MOVE
ACROSS THIS FRONT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL ALSO HELP
TO PROVIDE INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THESE DEVELOPING STORMS.
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THEY TRAVEL
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH THIS
UPPER STORM SYSTEM AS IT MOVES ACROSS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
WILL INCREASE AND WE WILL SEE THICKNESSES DIVERGE ACROSS US...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.

THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES SHOULD BE TO THE LEFT OF THE UPPER LOW
TRACK WHICH WILL PUT THIS AREA IN THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
MONDAY. THE RAIN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT LINGERING SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST ON
TUESDAY.

THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF 3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE. SOME OF THE RIVERS...
MAINLY IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY HAVE SIGNIFICANT RISES DUE
TO THE HEAVY RAIN. ALSO...IF HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS OVER WHEELER...
ROBERTS...GRAY AND HEMPHILL COUNTIES...THEN WE COULD SEE SOME
FLOODING ISSUES GIVEN THAT THESE AREAS HAD HEAVY RAIN JUST A WEEK
AND A HALF AGO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                50  77  48  55  40 /   5  30  50  50  40
BEAVER OK                  52  64  47  49  41 /  20  70  70  80  50
BOISE CITY OK              46  65  44  44  37 /  20  70  80  80  40
BORGER TX                  51  77  49  53  42 /   5  50  70  60  40
BOYS RANCH TX              49  78  48  54  41 /   5  30  60  60  40
CANYON TX                  50  78  47  57  40 /   5  30  50  50  40
CLARENDON TX               53  81  52  59  43 /   5  30  50  60  50
DALHART TX                 47  73  46  48  39 /  20  40  70  70  30
GUYMON OK                  50  64  47  47  40 /  20  70  80  80  40
HEREFORD TX                49  76  45  56  40 /   5  30  40  40  40
LIPSCOMB TX                52  68  49  49  43 /  20  70  70  80  50
PAMPA TX                   50  74  49  53  41 /   5  40  70  60  40
SHAMROCK TX                51  79  53  59  45 /   5  30  50  70  50
WELLINGTON TX              52  83  55  62  46 /   5  30  50  70  50

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/15






000
FXUS64 KAMA 251751 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1251 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES...WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
KGUY AFTER 12Z ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL EDGE INTO THE AREA BY
SUNDAY MORNING...TURNING THE WINDS AT KGUY TO EASTERLY AFTER 12Z.
RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE AT THE VERY END OF THIS TAF PERIOD.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
PANHANDLES. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND WINDS
ONLY IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS...SATURDAY SHOULD BE
RATHER PLEASANT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS DIGGING OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AREA TODAY...AND BY SUNDAY A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEGINS A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY TRACKS EASTWARD RIGHT
OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY MONDAY NIGHT. ALL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK DURING THIS TIME...SO
CONFIDENCE IN A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA CONTINUES
TO INCREASE. HAVE THUNDER CHANCES EARLY IN THE EVENT...SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...BUT AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ON MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
MORNING COULD BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR
WESTERN ZONES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND DRIES
THINGS OUT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. HAVE ISSUED A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR THOSE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...AND SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS MANY LOCATIONS HAVE HAD RECENT
WETTING RAINS AND GREEN-UP OF FUELS.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/15







000
FXUS64 KAMA 251751 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1251 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES...WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
KGUY AFTER 12Z ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL EDGE INTO THE AREA BY
SUNDAY MORNING...TURNING THE WINDS AT KGUY TO EASTERLY AFTER 12Z.
RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE AT THE VERY END OF THIS TAF PERIOD.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
PANHANDLES. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND WINDS
ONLY IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS...SATURDAY SHOULD BE
RATHER PLEASANT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS DIGGING OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AREA TODAY...AND BY SUNDAY A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEGINS A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY TRACKS EASTWARD RIGHT
OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY MONDAY NIGHT. ALL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK DURING THIS TIME...SO
CONFIDENCE IN A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA CONTINUES
TO INCREASE. HAVE THUNDER CHANCES EARLY IN THE EVENT...SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...BUT AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ON MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
MORNING COULD BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR
WESTERN ZONES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND DRIES
THINGS OUT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. HAVE ISSUED A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR THOSE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...AND SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS MANY LOCATIONS HAVE HAD RECENT
WETTING RAINS AND GREEN-UP OF FUELS.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/15






000
FXUS64 KAMA 251139 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
639 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
PANHANDLES. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND WINDS
ONLY IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS...SATURDAY SHOULD BE
RATHER PLEASANT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS DIGGING OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AREA TODAY...AND BY SUNDAY A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEGINS A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY TRACKS EASTWARD RIGHT
OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY MONDAY NIGHT. ALL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK DURING THIS TIME...SO
CONFIDENCE IN A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA CONTINUES
TO INCREASE. HAVE THUNDER CHANCES EARLY IN THE EVENT...SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...BUT AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ON MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
MORNING COULD BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR
WESTERN ZONES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND DRIES
THINGS OUT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. HAVE ISSUED A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR THOSE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...AND SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS MANY LOCATIONS HAVE HAD RECENT
WETTING RAINS AND GREEN-UP OF FUELS.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 251139 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
639 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
PANHANDLES. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND WINDS
ONLY IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS...SATURDAY SHOULD BE
RATHER PLEASANT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS DIGGING OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AREA TODAY...AND BY SUNDAY A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEGINS A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY TRACKS EASTWARD RIGHT
OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY MONDAY NIGHT. ALL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK DURING THIS TIME...SO
CONFIDENCE IN A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA CONTINUES
TO INCREASE. HAVE THUNDER CHANCES EARLY IN THE EVENT...SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...BUT AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ON MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
MORNING COULD BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR
WESTERN ZONES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND DRIES
THINGS OUT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. HAVE ISSUED A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR THOSE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...AND SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS MANY LOCATIONS HAVE HAD RECENT
WETTING RAINS AND GREEN-UP OF FUELS.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 251139 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
639 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
PANHANDLES. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND WINDS
ONLY IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS...SATURDAY SHOULD BE
RATHER PLEASANT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS DIGGING OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AREA TODAY...AND BY SUNDAY A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEGINS A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY TRACKS EASTWARD RIGHT
OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY MONDAY NIGHT. ALL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK DURING THIS TIME...SO
CONFIDENCE IN A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA CONTINUES
TO INCREASE. HAVE THUNDER CHANCES EARLY IN THE EVENT...SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...BUT AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ON MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
MORNING COULD BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR
WESTERN ZONES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND DRIES
THINGS OUT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. HAVE ISSUED A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR THOSE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...AND SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS MANY LOCATIONS HAVE HAD RECENT
WETTING RAINS AND GREEN-UP OF FUELS.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 251000
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
500 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
PANHANDLES. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND WINDS
ONLY IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS...SATURDAY SHOULD BE
RATHER PLEASANT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS DIGGING OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AREA TODAY...AND BY SUNDAY A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEGINS A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY TRACKS EASTWARD RIGHT
OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY MONDAY NIGHT. ALL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK DURING THIS TIME...SO
CONFIDENCE IN A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA CONTINUES
TO INCREASE. HAVE THUNDER CHANCES EARLY IN THE EVENT...SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...BUT AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ON MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
MORNING COULD BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR
WESTERN ZONES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND DRIES
THINGS OUT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. HAVE ISSUED A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR THOSE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...AND SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS MANY LOCATIONS HAVE HAD RECENT
WETTING RAINS AND GREEN-UP OF FUELS.

&&

ELSENHEIMER

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                82  51  76  47  53 /   0   5  20  50  70
BEAVER OK                  83  54  64  46  54 /   5  10  20  60  70
BOISE CITY OK              78  47  65  42  48 /   5   5  40  70  70
BORGER TX                  84  51  76  48  53 /   0   5  30  70  80
BOYS RANCH TX              83  50  77  47  53 /   0   5  20  60  70
CANYON TX                  82  51  76  47  54 /   0   5  20  50  60
CLARENDON TX               84  54  79  51  58 /   0   5  20  50  70
DALHART TX                 81  47  72  45  51 /   0   5  30  70  70
GUYMON OK                  82  50  65  45  52 /   5   5  30  70  70
HEREFORD TX                81  49  76  45  56 /   0   5  20  40  60
LIPSCOMB TX                84  53  67  49  53 /   5   5  20  70  70
PAMPA TX                   81  52  73  48  52 /   0   5  30  60  80
SHAMROCK TX                85  53  78  53  57 /   0   5  20  60  70
WELLINGTON TX              87  54  82  54  60 /   0   5  20  50  70

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

02/18







000
FXUS64 KAMA 251000
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
500 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
PANHANDLES. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND WINDS
ONLY IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS...SATURDAY SHOULD BE
RATHER PLEASANT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS DIGGING OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AREA TODAY...AND BY SUNDAY A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEGINS A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY TRACKS EASTWARD RIGHT
OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY MONDAY NIGHT. ALL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK DURING THIS TIME...SO
CONFIDENCE IN A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA CONTINUES
TO INCREASE. HAVE THUNDER CHANCES EARLY IN THE EVENT...SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...BUT AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ON MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
MORNING COULD BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR
WESTERN ZONES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND DRIES
THINGS OUT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. HAVE ISSUED A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR THOSE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...AND SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS MANY LOCATIONS HAVE HAD RECENT
WETTING RAINS AND GREEN-UP OF FUELS.

&&

ELSENHEIMER

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                82  51  76  47  53 /   0   5  20  50  70
BEAVER OK                  83  54  64  46  54 /   5  10  20  60  70
BOISE CITY OK              78  47  65  42  48 /   5   5  40  70  70
BORGER TX                  84  51  76  48  53 /   0   5  30  70  80
BOYS RANCH TX              83  50  77  47  53 /   0   5  20  60  70
CANYON TX                  82  51  76  47  54 /   0   5  20  50  60
CLARENDON TX               84  54  79  51  58 /   0   5  20  50  70
DALHART TX                 81  47  72  45  51 /   0   5  30  70  70
GUYMON OK                  82  50  65  45  52 /   5   5  30  70  70
HEREFORD TX                81  49  76  45  56 /   0   5  20  40  60
LIPSCOMB TX                84  53  67  49  53 /   5   5  20  70  70
PAMPA TX                   81  52  73  48  52 /   0   5  30  60  80
SHAMROCK TX                85  53  78  53  57 /   0   5  20  60  70
WELLINGTON TX              87  54  82  54  60 /   0   5  20  50  70

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

02/18






000
FXUS64 KAMA 250356
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1056 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION... /FOR THE 06Z TAFS/

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN DIRECTION. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL TOMORROW
WITHOUT A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN SPEED. COINCIDENT WITH PEAK MIXING
DURING THE AFTERNOON THERE COULD BE GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY
AT KDHT AND KAMA. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WEST MOVES CLOSER
AND SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS RESPOND TOMORROW EVENING WINDS WILL
PROBABLY BACK TO A MORE OF A SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION THAN WHAT
CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES (TYPICAL BIAS). VFR CONDITION WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CWA AND
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT. WILL LEAVE SOME POPS IN FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA
TONIGHT GIVEN THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
LOW.

AS THE CURRENT UPPER LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY
EARLY ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME WITH THIS
UPPER TROUGH AS IT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THEN
INTO OKLAHOMA BY TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES LOOK FAIRLY GOOD FOR THE
PANHANDLES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT...THE
NORTHERN CWA MAY SEE THE HEAVIEST RAIN AS THEY WILL BE IN
THE AREA OF BEST LIFT THE LONGEST. BUT...THE LOCATION OF THE
HEAVIEST RAIN MAY SHIFT GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW.

THE PANHANDLES THEN DRY OUT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. ANY RAIN THAT FALLS ACROSS THE WEST WILL BE
LIGHT. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN THE SOUTHWEST
TEXAS PANHANDLE SATURDAY AS THE WINDS PICK UP IN THESE AREAS. RAIN
IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
BE AT A MINIMUM.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/03






000
FXUS64 KAMA 250356
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1056 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION... /FOR THE 06Z TAFS/

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN DIRECTION. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL TOMORROW
WITHOUT A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN SPEED. COINCIDENT WITH PEAK MIXING
DURING THE AFTERNOON THERE COULD BE GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY
AT KDHT AND KAMA. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WEST MOVES CLOSER
AND SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS RESPOND TOMORROW EVENING WINDS WILL
PROBABLY BACK TO A MORE OF A SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION THAN WHAT
CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES (TYPICAL BIAS). VFR CONDITION WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CWA AND
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT. WILL LEAVE SOME POPS IN FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA
TONIGHT GIVEN THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
LOW.

AS THE CURRENT UPPER LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY
EARLY ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME WITH THIS
UPPER TROUGH AS IT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THEN
INTO OKLAHOMA BY TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES LOOK FAIRLY GOOD FOR THE
PANHANDLES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT...THE
NORTHERN CWA MAY SEE THE HEAVIEST RAIN AS THEY WILL BE IN
THE AREA OF BEST LIFT THE LONGEST. BUT...THE LOCATION OF THE
HEAVIEST RAIN MAY SHIFT GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW.

THE PANHANDLES THEN DRY OUT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. ANY RAIN THAT FALLS ACROSS THE WEST WILL BE
LIGHT. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN THE SOUTHWEST
TEXAS PANHANDLE SATURDAY AS THE WINDS PICK UP IN THESE AREAS. RAIN
IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
BE AT A MINIMUM.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/03







000
FXUS64 KAMA 242300
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
600 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...

STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
WIND SPEEDS WILL STEADILY DECREASE MID EVENING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CWA AND
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT. WILL LEAVE SOME POPS IN FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA
TONIGHT GIVEN THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
LOW.

AS THE CURRENT UPPER LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY
EARLY ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME WITH THIS
UPPER TROUGH AS IT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THEN
INTO OKLAHOMA BY TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES LOOK FAIRLY GOOD FOR THE
PANHANDLES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT...THE
NORTHERN CWA MAY SEE THE HEAVIEST RAIN AS THEY WILL BE IN
THE AREA OF BEST LIFT THE LONGEST. BUT...THE LOCATION OF THE
HEAVIEST RAIN MAY SHIFT GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW.

THE PANHANDLES THEN DRY OUT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. ANY RAIN THAT FALLS ACROSS THE WEST WILL BE
LIGHT. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN THE SOUTHWEST
TEXAS PANHANDLE SATURDAY AS THE WINDS PICK UP IN THESE AREAS. RAIN
IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
BE AT A MINIMUM.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF
     SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...
     RANDALL...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/03







000
FXUS64 KAMA 242300
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
600 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...

STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
WIND SPEEDS WILL STEADILY DECREASE MID EVENING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CWA AND
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT. WILL LEAVE SOME POPS IN FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA
TONIGHT GIVEN THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
LOW.

AS THE CURRENT UPPER LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY
EARLY ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME WITH THIS
UPPER TROUGH AS IT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THEN
INTO OKLAHOMA BY TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES LOOK FAIRLY GOOD FOR THE
PANHANDLES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT...THE
NORTHERN CWA MAY SEE THE HEAVIEST RAIN AS THEY WILL BE IN
THE AREA OF BEST LIFT THE LONGEST. BUT...THE LOCATION OF THE
HEAVIEST RAIN MAY SHIFT GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW.

THE PANHANDLES THEN DRY OUT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. ANY RAIN THAT FALLS ACROSS THE WEST WILL BE
LIGHT. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN THE SOUTHWEST
TEXAS PANHANDLE SATURDAY AS THE WINDS PICK UP IN THESE AREAS. RAIN
IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
BE AT A MINIMUM.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF
     SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...
     RANDALL...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/03







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