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000
FXUS64 KAMA 310352 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1052 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
THEN TREND TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST AFTER SUNRISE.  NO OVERNIGHT
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.  BY EARLY AFTERNOON...SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD VEER TO SOUTHEAST...AND INCREASE INTO THE 12 TO 15 KT RANGE.
NO CLOUDS EXPECTED UNTIL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...WHEN THICKENING CIRRUS
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER FROM A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AT
THE TIME OF TAF ISSUANCE TO EASTERLY BY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHEASTERLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
UNDER 10 KNOTS...BUT ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS HIGH THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR 12-15 KNOT WINDS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KDHT AND KGUY. OTHERWISE...HIGH THIN CIRRUS
WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE TOMORROW AHEAD OF AN
EASTWARD MOVING TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST.

BRB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

JUST A FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. FOUND IT ODD THAT
THE MODEL GUIDANCE THINKS OUR COLDEST MORNING OF THE FALL WILL BE
SATURDAY MORNING WHILE WINDS ARE BLOWING AT 10-25 MPH FROM THE
SOUTH. ON THAT ISSUE...REMAINED SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS. OTHERWISE...THE THORN IN OUR SIDE CONTINUES TO REMAIN THE
UPR AIR PATTERN NEXT WEEK AS MODELS ARE CONFUSED WITH WHAT TO DO
WITH A DIGGING WRN TROUGH AND A DYING EPAC TROPICAL SYSTEM. THE
ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS/GEM IDEA OF A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO REFLECT THAT
THINKING. DID INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES FOR MAINLY THE SE HALF OF THE
PANHANDLES MON/MON NIGHT AS CONSENSUS GROWS FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN THIS PERIOD.

TEMPS-WISE...HIGHS WILL FLUCTUATE FROM THE UPR 50S TO LOW 70S WITH
CURRENT INDICATIONS THAT TOMORROW AND TUE WILL BE THE COOLEST DAYS.
LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THOUGH A FEW PLACES WILL
LIKELY TAP 32 BRIEFLY AT SOME POINT OVER THE NEXT WEEK (TONIGHT, FRI
NIGHT, AND TUE NIGHT LOOK TO BE THE COOLEST NIGHTS).

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/17







000
FXUS64 KAMA 310352 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1052 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
THEN TREND TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST AFTER SUNRISE.  NO OVERNIGHT
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.  BY EARLY AFTERNOON...SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD VEER TO SOUTHEAST...AND INCREASE INTO THE 12 TO 15 KT RANGE.
NO CLOUDS EXPECTED UNTIL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...WHEN THICKENING CIRRUS
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER FROM A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AT
THE TIME OF TAF ISSUANCE TO EASTERLY BY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHEASTERLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
UNDER 10 KNOTS...BUT ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS HIGH THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR 12-15 KNOT WINDS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KDHT AND KGUY. OTHERWISE...HIGH THIN CIRRUS
WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE TOMORROW AHEAD OF AN
EASTWARD MOVING TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST.

BRB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

JUST A FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. FOUND IT ODD THAT
THE MODEL GUIDANCE THINKS OUR COLDEST MORNING OF THE FALL WILL BE
SATURDAY MORNING WHILE WINDS ARE BLOWING AT 10-25 MPH FROM THE
SOUTH. ON THAT ISSUE...REMAINED SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS. OTHERWISE...THE THORN IN OUR SIDE CONTINUES TO REMAIN THE
UPR AIR PATTERN NEXT WEEK AS MODELS ARE CONFUSED WITH WHAT TO DO
WITH A DIGGING WRN TROUGH AND A DYING EPAC TROPICAL SYSTEM. THE
ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS/GEM IDEA OF A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO REFLECT THAT
THINKING. DID INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES FOR MAINLY THE SE HALF OF THE
PANHANDLES MON/MON NIGHT AS CONSENSUS GROWS FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN THIS PERIOD.

TEMPS-WISE...HIGHS WILL FLUCTUATE FROM THE UPR 50S TO LOW 70S WITH
CURRENT INDICATIONS THAT TOMORROW AND TUE WILL BE THE COOLEST DAYS.
LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THOUGH A FEW PLACES WILL
LIKELY TAP 32 BRIEFLY AT SOME POINT OVER THE NEXT WEEK (TONIGHT, FRI
NIGHT, AND TUE NIGHT LOOK TO BE THE COOLEST NIGHTS).

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/17







000
FXUS64 KAMA 302313
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
613 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER FROM A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AT
THE TIME OF TAF ISSUANCE TO EASTERLY BY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHEASTERLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
UNDER 10 KNOTS...BUT ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS HIGH THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR 12-15 KNOT WINDS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KDHT AND KGUY. OTHERWISE...HIGH THIN CIRRUS
WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE TOMORROW AHEAD OF AN
EASTWARD MOVING TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

JUST A FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. FOUND IT ODD THAT
THE MODEL GUIDANCE THINKS OUR COLDEST MORNING OF THE FALL WILL BE
SATURDAY MORNING WHILE WINDS ARE BLOWING AT 10-25 MPH FROM THE
SOUTH. ON THAT ISSUE...REMAINED SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS. OTHERWISE...THE THORN IN OUR SIDE CONTINUES TO REMAIN THE
UPR AIR PATTERN NEXT WEEK AS MODELS ARE CONFUSED WITH WHAT TO DO
WITH A DIGGING WRN TROUGH AND A DYING EPAC TROPICAL SYSTEM. THE
ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS/GEM IDEA OF A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO REFLECT THAT
THINKING. DID INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES FOR MAINLY THE SE HALF OF THE
PANHANDLES MON/MON NIGHT AS CONSENSUS GROWS FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN THIS PERIOD.

TEMPS-WISE...HIGHS WILL FLUCTUATE FROM THE UPR 50S TO LOW 70S WITH
CURRENT INDICATIONS THAT TOMORROW AND TUE WILL BE THE COOLEST DAYS.
LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THOUGH A FEW PLACES WILL
LIKELY TAP 32 BRIEFLY AT SOME POINT OVER THE NEXT WEEK (TONIGHT, FRI
NIGHT, AND TUE NIGHT LOOK TO BE THE COOLEST NIGHTS).

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/03








000
FXUS64 KAMA 302004
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
304 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

JUST A FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. FOUND IT ODD THAT
THE MODEL GUIDANCE THINKS OUR COLDEST MORNING OF THE FALL WILL BE
SATURDAY MORNING WHILE WINDS ARE BLOWING AT 10-25 MPH FROM THE
SOUTH. ON THAT ISSUE...REMAINED SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS. OTHERWISE...THE THORN IN OUR SIDE CONTINUES TO REMAIN THE
UPR AIR PATTERN NEXT WEEK AS MODELS ARE CONFUSED WITH WHAT TO DO
WITH A DIGGING WRN TROUGH AND A DYING EPAC TROPICAL SYSTEM. THE
ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS/GEM IDEA OF A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO REFLECT THAT
THINKING. DID INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES FOR MAINLY THE SE HALF OF THE
PANHANDLES MON/MON NIGHT AS CONSENSUS GROWS FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN THIS PERIOD.

TEMPS-WISE...HIGHS WILL FLUCTUATE FROM THE UPR 50S TO LOW 70S WITH
CURRENT INDICATIONS THAT TOMORROW AND TUE WILL BE THE COOLEST DAYS.
LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THOUGH A FEW PLACES WILL
LIKELY TAP 32 BRIEFLY AT SOME POINT OVER THE NEXT WEEK (TONIGHT, FRI
NIGHT, AND TUE NIGHT LOOK TO BE THE COOLEST NIGHTS).

SIMPSON
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                37  61  38  64  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  35  56  35  63  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              34  59  40  66  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  39  61  40  65  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              36  63  40  67  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  37  62  38  65  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               40  62  35  62  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 33  61  39  66  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  35  59  38  66  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                37  63  38  65  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                36  58  36  61  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   38  59  37  60  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                40  61  35  60  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              41  63  36  62  44 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/09







000
FXUS64 KAMA 301720 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1220 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TO AROUND 20-25 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE
DROPPING DOWN BELOW 10 KTS OVERNIGHT.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH KDHT AND KGUY AND WILL
MOVE THROUGH KAMA WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ONLY A SHIFT TO
NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED. GUSTS TO 25-30KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL SUBSIDE 21-00Z. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
CWA TODAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT...BUT
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FOR A WHILE. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT...BUT THERE COULD BE A
FEW PLACES THAT FALL INTO THE 33 TO 36 DEGREE RANGE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA.

A COLDER NIGHT COULD BE IN STORE FOR THE EASTERN CWA ON
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AGAIN...BELIEVE THAT THE LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...BUT SOME READINGS
MAY GET DOWN INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.
INCREASING WINDS AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA SHOULD KEEP
THESE AREAS ABOVE FREEZING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRANSLATES FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
ONSHORE ACROSS THE WEST COAST BY MID DAY SATURDAY. THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPLIT INTO TWO PIECES. ONE PIECE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY WHILE ANOTHER
PIECE MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO ARIZONA BY MID DAY MONDAY. IT IS
THIS SOUTHERN TROUGH THAT WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR ANY CHANCES
OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE GFS
WANTS TO MOVE THIS TROUGH SOUTHEAST AS AN OPEN WAVE AND IT
WANTS TO KEEP IT PROGRESSIVE. IF THIS HAPPENS...THEN OUR
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE LESS WITH MAYBE ONLY THE SOUTHEAST
TEXAS PANHANDLE SEEING RAIN. THE ECMWF MODEL WANTS TO CLOSE
OFF A LOW OVER ARIZONA AND THEN IT WANTS TO DRIFT THIS LOW SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF THE ECMWF
MODEL TURNS OUT TO BE RIGHT...THEN THE PANHANDLES WOULD BE IN FOR A
BETTER CHANCE RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE WOULD BE FAVORED...BUT RAIN AMOUNTS WOULD
BE MUCH GREATER THAN THOSE OFFERED UP BY THE GFS. FOR NOW WILL GO
WITH A COMPROMISE...WHICH IS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST. SO...FEW
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE POP FORECAST.

AFTER THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES BY THE PANHANDLES...A DRYING
TREND WILL COMMENCE.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/09







000
FXUS64 KAMA 301117
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
617 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH KDHT AND KGUY AND WILL
MOVE THROUGH KAMA WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ONLY A SHIFT TO
NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED. GUSTS TO 25-30KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL SUBSIDE 21-00Z. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
CWA TODAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT...BUT
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FOR A WHILE. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT...BUT THERE COULD BE A
FEW PLACES THAT FALL INTO THE 33 TO 36 DEGREE RANGE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA.

A COLDER NIGHT COULD BE IN STORE FOR THE EASTERN CWA ON
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AGAIN...BELIEVE THAT THE LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...BUT SOME READINGS
MAY GET DOWN INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.
INCREASING WINDS AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA SHOULD KEEP
THESE AREAS ABOVE FREEZING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRANSLATES FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
ONSHORE ACROSS THE WEST COAST BY MID DAY SATURDAY. THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPLIT INTO TWO PIECES. ONE PIECE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY WHILE ANOTHER
PIECE MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO ARIZONA BY MID DAY MONDAY. IT IS
THIS SOUTHERN TROUGH THAT WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR ANY CHANCES
OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE GFS
WANTS TO MOVE THIS TROUGH SOUTHEAST AS AN OPEN WAVE AND IT
WANTS TO KEEP IT PROGRESSIVE. IF THIS HAPPENS...THEN OUR
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE LESS WITH MAYBE ONLY THE SOUTHEAST
TEXAS PANHANDLE SEEING RAIN. THE ECMWF MODEL WANTS TO CLOSE
OFF A LOW OVER ARIZONA AND THEN IT WANTS TO DRIFT THIS LOW SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF THE ECMWF
MODEL TURNS OUT TO BE RIGHT...THEN THE PANHANDLES WOULD BE IN FOR A
BETTER CHANCE RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE WOULD BE FAVORED...BUT RAIN AMOUNTS WOULD
BE MUCH GREATER THAN THOSE OFFERED UP BY THE GFS. FOR NOW WILL GO
WITH A COMPROMISE...WHICH IS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST. SO...FEW
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE POP FORECAST.

AFTER THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES BY THE PANHANDLES...A DRYING
TREND WILL COMMENCE.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

18/15







000
FXUS64 KAMA 300805
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
305 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
CWA TODAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT...BUT
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FOR A WHILE. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT...BUT THERE COULD BE A
FEW PLACES THAT FALL INTO THE 33 TO 36 DEGREE RANGE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA.

A COLDER NIGHT COULD BE IN STORE FOR THE EASTERN CWA ON
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AGAIN...BELIEVE THAT THE LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...BUT SOME READINGS
MAY GET DOWN INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.
INCREASING WINDS AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA SHOULD KEEP
THESE AREAS ABOVE FREEZING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRANSLATES FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
ONSHORE ACROSS THE WEST COAST BY MID DAY SATURDAY. THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPLIT INTO TWO PIECES. ONE PIECE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY WHILE ANOTHER
PIECE MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO ARIZONA BY MID DAY MONDAY. IT IS
THIS SOUTHERN TROUGH THAT WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR ANY CHANCES
OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE GFS
WANTS TO MOVE THIS TROUGH SOUTHEAST AS AN OPEN WAVE AND IT
WANTS TO KEEP IT PROGRESSIVE. IF THIS HAPPENS...THEN OUR
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE LESS WITH MAYBE ONLY THE SOUTHEAST
TEXAS PANHANDLE SEEING RAIN. THE ECMWF MODEL WANTS TO CLOSE
OFF A LOW OVER ARIZONA AND THEN IT WANTS TO DRIFT THIS LOW SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF THE ECMWF
MODEL TURNS OUT TO BE RIGHT...THEN THE PANHANDLES WOULD BE IN FOR A
BETTER CHANCE RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE WOULD BE FAVORED...BUT RAIN AMOUNTS WOULD
BE MUCH GREATER THAN THOSE OFFERED UP BY THE GFS. FOR NOW WILL GO
WITH A COMPROMISE...WHICH IS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST. SO...FEW
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE POP FORECAST.

AFTER THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES BY THE PANHANDLES...A DRYING
TREND WILL COMMENCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                69  40  60  38  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  71  37  55  35  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              66  37  58  40  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  72  40  59  40  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              71  38  61  40  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  70  40  61  38  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               73  41  60  35  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 69  37  59  39  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  70  37  58  38  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                71  38  62  38  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                71  40  56  36  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   69  39  57  37  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                73  42  59  35  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              76  45  61  36  62 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

18/15






000
FXUS64 KAMA 300432 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1132 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT NORTHERN TERMINALS AROUND 09Z OR 10Z
THURSDAY...AND TO PASS KAMA AROUND 12Z.  JUST A SMALL AMOUNT OF
CIRRUS WILL BE THE ONLY CLOUDS OF NOTE.  SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND TO THEN QUICKLY VEER TO
NORTH-NORTHEAST.  SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST INTO THE 25 TO 30 KT
RANGE FROM MID-MORNING TO MID-AFTERNOON...AND TO THEN DIMINISH TO
BELOW 10 KT FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  NO VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

AVIATION...

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING AND SHOULD REMAIN 10 KNOTS
OR LESS OVERNIGHT UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH DHT AND GUY BY 10Z AND AMA BY
12Z. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AND GUST OVER 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING AND VEERING SLIGHTLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH ONLY HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BRB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HAS MAINTAINED DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. FULL SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS LED TO AFTERNOON TEMPS
TO CLIMB TO NEAR SEASONAL READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT BUT UNLIKE LAST NIGHT WERE SOME
LOCATIONS DIPPED TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK...THE AREA SHOULD SEE A
SEASONAL COOL NIGHT.

THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE THE TREND WITH TRANQUIL FALL WEATHER
CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA IN
THE MORNING. THIS FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE COOL AIR UPSTREAM IS NOT EXPECTED TO FILTER
ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL THE EVENING. THUS SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO THE MID 70S. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED
WITH THIS FRONT AS THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
NORTHERLY WINDS MAY INCREASE INITIALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...BUT
WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. GIVEN THE COOLER AIR MASS AND LIGHT
WINDS...TEMPERATURES NEAR THE FREEZING MARK WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE TYPICALLY FAVORED COLD SPOTS. A FROST
ADVISORY OR EVEN A FREEZE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THE APPROACH AND EVOLUTION OF A
LONG WAVE TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PRIOR TO THIS UPPER TROUGH...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN COOL ON
HALLOWEEN WITH HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BUT AT LEAST TRICK OR TREATERS WILL NOT HAVE TO DEAL WITH STRONG
WINDS IN THE EVENING. HOWEVER BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN IN
EARNEST OVER THE WEEKEND AS A SURFACE LEE SIDE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 70S BY SUNDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE
ADVECTION ON SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IN ADDITION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED WILL BE
DRAWN INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER FLOW BACKS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
HAVE INCREASED POPS LATE SUNDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE RAIN
LOOKS MORE LIKELY. HAVE MAINTAINED POPS MONDAY ALTHOUGH A COLD FRONT
PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY EVENING MAY AID IN PRECIP
CHANCES EVEN MORE. RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE FRONT
SURGES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...EFFECTIVELY CUTTING OFF PRECIP
CHANCES LATER IN THE DAY. APPEARS THE AIR MASS UPSTREAM WILL NOT BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER SO NOT ANTICIPATING A MAJOR COOL DOWN BY MID WEEK
NEXT WEEK.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/17







000
FXUS64 KAMA 292324
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
624 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.AVIATION...

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING AND SHOULD REMAIN 10 KNOTS
OR LESS OVERNIGHT UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH DHT AND GUY BY 10Z AND AMA BY
12Z. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AND GUST OVER 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING AND VEERING SLIGHTLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH ONLY HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HAS MAINTAINED DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. FULL SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS LED TO AFTERNOON TEMPS
TO CLIMB TO NEAR SEASONAL READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT BUT UNLIKE LAST NIGHT WERE SOME
LOCATIONS DIPPED TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK...THE AREA SHOULD SEE A
SEASONAL COOL NIGHT.

THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE THE TREND WITH TRANQUIL FALL WEATHER
CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA IN
THE MORNING. THIS FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE COOL AIR UPSTREAM IS NOT EXPECTED TO FILTER
ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL THE EVENING. THUS SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO THE MID 70S. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED
WITH THIS FRONT AS THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
NORTHERLY WINDS MAY INCREASE INITIALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...BUT
WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. GIVEN THE COOLER AIR MASS AND LIGHT
WINDS...TEMPERATURES NEAR THE FREEZING MARK WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE TYPICALLY FAVORED COLD SPOTS. A FROST
ADVISORY OR EVEN A FREEZE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THE APPROACH AND EVOLUTION OF A
LONG WAVE TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PRIOR TO THIS UPPER TROUGH...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN COOL ON
HALLOWEEN WITH HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BUT AT LEAST TRICK OR TREATERS WILL NOT HAVE TO DEAL WITH STRONG
WINDS IN THE EVENING. HOWEVER BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN IN
EARNEST OVER THE WEEKEND AS A SURFACE LEE SIDE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 70S BY SUNDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE
ADVECTION ON SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IN ADDITION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED WILL BE
DRAWN INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER FLOW BACKS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
HAVE INCREASED POPS LATE SUNDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE RAIN
LOOKS MORE LIKELY. HAVE MAINTAINED POPS MONDAY ALTHOUGH A COLD FRONT
PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY EVENING MAY AID IN PRECIP
CHANCES EVEN MORE. RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE FRONT
SURGES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...EFFECTIVELY CUTTING OFF PRECIP
CHANCES LATER IN THE DAY. APPEARS THE AIR MASS UPSTREAM WILL NOT BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER SO NOT ANTICIPATING A MAJOR COOL DOWN BY MID WEEK
NEXT WEEK.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/17







000
FXUS64 KAMA 292050
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
350 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HAS MAINTAINED DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. FULL SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS LED TO AFTERNOON TEMPS
TO CLIMB TO NEAR SEASONAL READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT BUT UNLIKE LAST NIGHT WERE SOME
LOCATIONS DIPPED TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK...THE AREA SHOULD SEE A
SEASONAL COOL NIGHT.

THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE THE TREND WITH TRANQUIL FALL WEATHER
CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA IN
THE MORNING. THIS FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE COOL AIR UPSTREAM IS NOT EXPECTED TO FILTER
ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL THE EVENING. THUS SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO THE MID 70S. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED
WITH THIS FRONT AS THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
NORTHERLY WINDS MAY INCREASE INITIALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...BUT
WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. GIVEN THE COOLER AIR MASS AND LIGHT
WINDS...TEMPERATURES NEAR THE FREEZING MARK WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE TYPICALLY FAVORED COLD SPOTS. A FROST
ADVISORY OR EVEN A FREEZE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THE APPROACH AND EVOLUTION OF A
LONG WAVE TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PRIOR TO THIS UPPER TROUGH...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN COOL ON
HALLOWEEN WITH HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BUT AT LEAST TRICK OR TREATERS WILL NOT HAVE TO DEAL WITH STRONG
WINDS IN THE EVENING. HOWEVER BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN IN
EARNEST OVER THE WEEKEND AS A SURFACE LEE SIDE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 70S BY SUNDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE
ADVECTION ON SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IN ADDITION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED WILL BE
DRAWN INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER FLOW BACKS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
HAVE INCREASED POPS LATE SUNDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE RAIN
LOOKS MORE LIKELY. HAVE MAINTAINED POPS MONDAY ALTHOUGH A COLD FRONT
PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY EVENING MAY AID IN PRECIP
CHANCES EVEN MORE. RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE FRONT
SURGES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...EFFECTIVELY CUTTING OFF PRECIP
CHANCES LATER IN THE DAY. APPEARS THE AIR MASS UPSTREAM WILL NOT BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER SO NOT ANTICIPATING A MAJOR COOL DOWN BY MID WEEK
NEXT WEEK.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/05







000
FXUS64 KAMA 291751 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1251 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KTS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. THEN WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
REDUCE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 09Z FOR KGUY...10Z FOR KDHT...AND 13Z
FOR KAMA. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT COULD GUST TO AROUND 20-25 KTS LATER
THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS
COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 718 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY. WINDS WILL THEN
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT AT DHT AND GUY BEHIND A
COLD FRONT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT QUITE
REACH THE AMA TAF SITE BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST. SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES HAVE RESULTED IN ANOTHER COOL...FALL LIKE MORNING ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY.

COLD FRONT STILL PROGGED TO COME THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND
REMAIN DRY...WITH MAINLY JUST A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS AND LOW
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. MAX TEMPERATURES ON HALLOWEEN WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE LOW 60S. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A TROUGH FORMS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE PANHANDLES ON MONDAY...WITH 00Z MODEL
RUNS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT TO TIMING AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE WILL
PROVIDE SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA WHERE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED.
INSTABILITY WARRANTS THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODELS WITH HOW
LONG THE FRONT LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

CE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/05








000
FXUS64 KAMA 291218 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
718 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY. WINDS WILL THEN
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT AT DHT AND GUY BEHIND A
COLD FRONT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT QUITE
REACH THE AMA TAF SITE BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST. SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES HAVE RESULTED IN ANOTHER COOL...FALL LIKE MORNING ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY.

COLD FRONT STILL PROGGED TO COME THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND
REMAIN DRY...WITH MAINLY JUST A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS AND LOW
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. MAX TEMPERATURES ON HALLOWEEN WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE LOW 60S. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A TROUGH FORMS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE PANHANDLES ON MONDAY...WITH 00Z MODEL
RUNS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT TO TIMING AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE WILL
PROVIDE SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA WHERE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED.
INSTABILITY WARRANTS THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODELS WITH HOW
LONG THE FRONT LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

CE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/18







000
FXUS64 KAMA 290929
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
429 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES HAVE RESULTED IN ANOTHER COOL...FALL LIKE MORNING ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY.

COLD FRONT STILL PROGGED TO COME THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND
REMAIN DRY...WITH MAINLY JUST A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS AND LOW
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. MAX TEMPERATURES ON HALLOWEEN WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE LOW 60S. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A TROUGH FORMS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE PANHANDLES ON MONDAY...WITH 00Z MODEL
RUNS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT TO TIMING AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE WILL
PROVIDE SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA WHERE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED.
INSTABILITY WARRANTS THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODELS WITH HOW
LONG THE FRONT LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

CE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                69  44  69  40  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  73  40  70  38  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              71  41  67  36  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  72  45  71  41  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              72  43  72  38  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  70  43  70  40  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               70  45  73  42  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 70  37  68  35  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  72  40  69  37  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                70  43  71  39  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                71  41  70  40  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   68  44  68  40  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                71  42  73  42  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              73  44  76  45  63 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/18







000
FXUS64 KAMA 290342 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1042 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKY EXPECTED OVERNIHGT.  LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL TREND TO
LIGHT SOUTHWEST BY DAYBREAK.  NO EARLY MORNING VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.  SURFACE WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT
BEGINNING AROUND 16Z WEDNESDAY.  CLEAR SKY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY AND EVENING ON WEDNESDAY.  SURFACE WINDS DIMINISH AGAIN WEDNESDAY
EVENING.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME CIRRUS
HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT AMA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR AT ALL THREE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AND WILL VEER TO SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY TOMORROW. BY
AFTERNOON SPEEDS WILL EXCEED 10 KTS AND COULD APPROACH 15
KTS...ESPECIALLY AT DHT AND GUY WHERE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE STRONGER.

BRB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES SAW MORE FALL-LIKE WEATHER TODAY
THAN RECENTLY AS A COOL AIR MASS SETTLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS HAVE PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED...LEAVING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. WHILE SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING IN THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHWEST
TEXAS PANHANDLE. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY FALL INTO THE MID 30S...RAISING
CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE FROST DEVELOPMENT BUT OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS TO
STAY WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT FROST. THUS HAVE OPTED TO NOT ISSUE A
FROST ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY WHILE A
SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL HELP TO BUMP TEMPS BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

LONG TERM...
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
/THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/ DESPITE A FAIRLY ACTIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN
ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
THURSDAY...MAINTAINING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SENDING A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL COME THROUGH DRY AS THERE
WILL NOT BE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THIS FRONT WILL SEND ANOTHER
SURGE OF COOL AIR INTO THE AREA IN TIME FOR HALLOWEEN FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. BY THE
WEEKEND...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE
BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LEE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL HELP TEMPS TO REBOUND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
PAINT LIGHT QPF MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...EAST OF A DIFFUSE DRYLINE. HOWEVER THE
CURRENT 12Z ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS TROUGH AND NOW DOES
NOT CLOSE OFF A SECONDARY UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THE ECMWF ALSO INDICATES PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
STAY EAST OF THE AMA CWA. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST GIVEN
THESE MODEL DISCREPANCIES.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/17







000
FXUS64 KAMA 282326
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
626 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME CIRRUS
HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT AMA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR AT ALL THREE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AND WILL VEER TO SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY TOMORROW. BY
AFTERNOON SPEEDS WILL EXCEED 10 KTS AND COULD APPROACH 15
KTS...ESPECIALLY AT DHT AND GUY WHERE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE STRONGER.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES SAW MORE FALL-LIKE WEATHER TODAY
THAN RECENTLY AS A COOL AIR MASS SETTLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS HAVE PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED...LEAVING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. WHILE SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING IN THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHWEST
TEXAS PANHANDLE. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY FALL INTO THE MID 30S...RAISING
CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE FROST DEVELOPMENT BUT OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS TO
STAY WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT FROST. THUS HAVE OPTED TO NOT ISSUE A
FROST ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY WHILE A
SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL HELP TO BUMP TEMPS BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

LONG TERM...
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
/THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/ DESPITE A FAIRLY ACTIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN
ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
THURSDAY...MAINTAINING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SENDING A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL COME THROUGH DRY AS THERE
WILL NOT BE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THIS FRONT WILL SEND ANOTHER
SURGE OF COOL AIR INTO THE AREA IN TIME FOR HALLOWEEN FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. BY THE
WEEKEND...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE
BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LEE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL HELP TEMPS TO REBOUND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
PAINT LIGHT QPF MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...EAST OF A DIFFUSE DRYLINE. HOWEVER THE
CURRENT 12Z ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS TROUGH AND NOW DOES
NOT CLOSE OFF A SECONDARY UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THE ECMWF ALSO INDICATES PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
STAY EAST OF THE AMA CWA. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST GIVEN
THESE MODEL DISCREPANCIES.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/17







000
FXUS64 KAMA 282030
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
330 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES SAW MORE FALL-LIKE WEATHER TODAY
THAN RECENTLY AS A COOL AIR MASS SETTLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS HAVE PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED...LEAVING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. WHILE SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING IN THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHWEST
TEXAS PANHANDLE. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY FALL INTO THE MID 30S...RAISING
CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE FROST DEVELOPMENT BUT OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS TO
STAY WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT FROST. THUS HAVE OPTED TO NOT ISSUE A
FROST ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY WHILE A
SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL HELP TO BUMP TEMPS BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
/THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/ DESPITE A FAIRLY ACTIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN
ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
THURSDAY...MAINTAINING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SENDING A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL COME THROUGH DRY AS THERE
WILL NOT BE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THIS FRONT WILL SEND ANOTHER
SURGE OF COOL AIR INTO THE AREA IN TIME FOR HALLOWEEN FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. BY THE
WEEKEND...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE
BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LEE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL HELP TEMPS TO REBOUND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
PAINT LIGHT QPF MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...EAST OF A DIFFUSE DRYLINE. HOWEVER THE
CURRENT 12Z ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS TROUGH AND NOW DOES
NOT CLOSE OFF A SECONDARY UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THE ECMWF ALSO INDICATES PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
STAY EAST OF THE AMA CWA. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST GIVEN
THESE MODEL DISCREPANCIES.

CLK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                40  69  44  72  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  37  73  40  72  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              37  70  41  70  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  43  72  45  73  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              40  72  43  73  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  38  70  43  73  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               41  70  45  76  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 35  69  37  73  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  38  72  40  74  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                37  69  43  72  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                37  72  41  73  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   40  69  44  71  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                37  71  42  76  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              40  74  44  79  45 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

19/05







000
FXUS64 KAMA 281713 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1213 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE WINDS FINALLY SETTLE OUT OF THE SOUTH BUT REMAIN AT OR BELOW
10 KNOTS. SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MOULTON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

19/05







000
FXUS64 KAMA 281057 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
557 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.AVIATION...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THEY WILL STILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10
KNOTS. SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. SITES IN
THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE HAVE ALREADY
REACHED THE MID 30S...AND A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THOSE
AREAS. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...REACHING ONLY
THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT ON TAP WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES...ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A FROST
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL RETURN THIS EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA...BUT
APPEARS IT WILL PASS THROUGH DRY AGAIN SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY/S FRONT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN BY SATURDAY WITH THE RETURN OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL SEE SOME MOISTURE RETURN OVER
THE WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A DIFFUSE DRYLINE
BY SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES MONDAY...WITH STILL QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
MODELS IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FRONT. FOR NOW KEPT POPS LOW
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY.

CE/KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...HARTLEY.

OK...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$

15/18







000
FXUS64 KAMA 280946
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
446 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. SITES IN
THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE HAVE ALREADY
REACHED THE MID 30S...AND A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THOSE
AREAS. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...REACHING ONLY
THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT ON TAP WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES...ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A FROST
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL RETURN THIS EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA...BUT
APPEARS IT WILL PASS THROUGH DRY AGAIN SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY/S FRONT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN BY SATURDAY WITH THE RETURN OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL SEE SOME MOISTURE RETURN OVER
THE WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A DIFFUSE DRYLINE
BY SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES MONDAY...WITH STILL QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
MODELS IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FRONT. FOR NOW KEPT POPS LOW
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY.

CE/KB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                64  39  70  44  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  66  35  72  41  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              61  36  72  42  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  65  42  73  46  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              65  39  73  44  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  64  37  71  43  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               68  41  70  45  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 63  34  70  38  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  64  37  71  41  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                63  36  70  43  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                66  35  71  41  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   65  39  68  43  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                68  37  71  42  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              70  40  74  44  78 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...HARTLEY.

OK...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$

15/18







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