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000
FXUS64 KAMA 281100
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
500 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT KAMA AND KDHT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST.  WARM AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY...WITH BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT BRINGING ONSET OF MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

STILL HAVE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SUNDAY...BUT CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR AROUND NOON SUNDAY FROM BEAVER
TO LIPSCOMB...AND AROUND 6 PM SUNDAY FROM CLAYTON TO MEMPHIS.  THIS
WOULD ALLOW SOUTHWEST PART OF FORECAST AREA TO REACH THE LOWER-70S
WHILE HOLDING THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO THE MID-50S.  FUTURE
FORECASTS WILL BRING FURTHER REFINEMENTS.

AT ANY RATE...STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FORECAST...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S.  RAPID MODIFICATION OF POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS GETS UNDERWAY
ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS ABOVE CLIMO TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  03

COCKRELL

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...
GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM TEXHOMA TO GOODNIGHT.  SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES FALL WELL BELOW 20 PERCENT.  SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM SPEARMAN TO MEMPHIS.  ON
SUNDAY...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
SOUTHWEST 4 COUNTIES OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.  NO ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.  03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                77  42  78  42  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  73  34  78  33  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              77  39  78  37  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  76  45  79  43  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              77  39  77  38  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  77  42  78  43  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               75  43  80  42  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 78  36  77  34  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  77  38  79  37  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                78  41  80  42  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                72  39  78  40  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   74  43  77  42  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                69  41  78  41  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              70  42  78  41  70 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/03






000
FXUS64 KAMA 281100
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
500 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT KAMA AND KDHT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST.  WARM AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY...WITH BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT BRINGING ONSET OF MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

STILL HAVE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SUNDAY...BUT CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR AROUND NOON SUNDAY FROM BEAVER
TO LIPSCOMB...AND AROUND 6 PM SUNDAY FROM CLAYTON TO MEMPHIS.  THIS
WOULD ALLOW SOUTHWEST PART OF FORECAST AREA TO REACH THE LOWER-70S
WHILE HOLDING THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO THE MID-50S.  FUTURE
FORECASTS WILL BRING FURTHER REFINEMENTS.

AT ANY RATE...STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FORECAST...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S.  RAPID MODIFICATION OF POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS GETS UNDERWAY
ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS ABOVE CLIMO TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  03

COCKRELL

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...
GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM TEXHOMA TO GOODNIGHT.  SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES FALL WELL BELOW 20 PERCENT.  SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM SPEARMAN TO MEMPHIS.  ON
SUNDAY...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
SOUTHWEST 4 COUNTIES OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.  NO ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.  03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                77  42  78  42  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  73  34  78  33  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              77  39  78  37  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  76  45  79  43  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              77  39  77  38  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  77  42  78  43  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               75  43  80  42  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 78  36  77  34  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  77  38  79  37  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                78  41  80  42  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                72  39  78  40  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   74  43  77  42  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                69  41  78  41  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              70  42  78  41  70 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/03







000
FXUS64 KAMA 280947
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
345 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST.  WARM AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY...WITH BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT BRINGING ONSET OF MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

STILL HAVE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SUNDAY...BUT CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR AROUND NOON SUNDAY FROM BEAVER
TO LIPSCOMB...AND AROUND 6 PM SUNDAY FROM CLAYTON TO MEMPHIS.  THIS
WOULD ALLOW SOUTHWEST PART OF FORECAST AREA TO REACH THE LOWER-70S
WHILE HOLDING THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO THE MID-50S.  FUTURE
FORECASTS WILL BRING FURTHER REFINEMENTS.

AT ANY RATE...STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FORECAST...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S.  RAPID MODIFICATION OF POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS GETS UNDERWAY
ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS ABOVE CLIMO TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  03

COCKRELL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...
GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM TEXHOMA TO GOODNIGHT.  SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES FALL WELL BELOW 20 PERCENT.  SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM SPEARMAN TO MEMPHIS.  ON
SUNDAY...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
SOUTHWEST 4 COUNTIES OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.  NO ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.  03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                77  42  78  42  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  73  34  78  33  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              77  39  78  37  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  76  45  79  43  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              77  39  77  38  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  77  42  78  43  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               75  43  80  42  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 78  36  77  34  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  77  38  79  37  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                78  41  80  42  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                72  39  78  40  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   74  43  77  42  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                69  41  78  41  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              70  42  78  41  70 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/03





000
FXUS64 KAMA 280947
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
345 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST.  WARM AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY...WITH BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT BRINGING ONSET OF MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

STILL HAVE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SUNDAY...BUT CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR AROUND NOON SUNDAY FROM BEAVER
TO LIPSCOMB...AND AROUND 6 PM SUNDAY FROM CLAYTON TO MEMPHIS.  THIS
WOULD ALLOW SOUTHWEST PART OF FORECAST AREA TO REACH THE LOWER-70S
WHILE HOLDING THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO THE MID-50S.  FUTURE
FORECASTS WILL BRING FURTHER REFINEMENTS.

AT ANY RATE...STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FORECAST...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S.  RAPID MODIFICATION OF POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS GETS UNDERWAY
ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS ABOVE CLIMO TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  03

COCKRELL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...
GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM TEXHOMA TO GOODNIGHT.  SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES FALL WELL BELOW 20 PERCENT.  SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM SPEARMAN TO MEMPHIS.  ON
SUNDAY...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
SOUTHWEST 4 COUNTIES OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.  NO ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.  03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                77  42  78  42  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  73  34  78  33  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              77  39  78  37  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  76  45  79  43  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              77  39  77  38  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  77  42  78  43  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               75  43  80  42  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 78  36  77  34  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  77  38  79  37  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                78  41  80  42  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                72  39  78  40  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   74  43  77  42  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                69  41  78  41  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              70  42  78  41  70 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/03





000
FXUS64 KAMA 280947
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
345 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST.  WARM AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY...WITH BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT BRINGING ONSET OF MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

STILL HAVE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SUNDAY...BUT CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR AROUND NOON SUNDAY FROM BEAVER
TO LIPSCOMB...AND AROUND 6 PM SUNDAY FROM CLAYTON TO MEMPHIS.  THIS
WOULD ALLOW SOUTHWEST PART OF FORECAST AREA TO REACH THE LOWER-70S
WHILE HOLDING THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO THE MID-50S.  FUTURE
FORECASTS WILL BRING FURTHER REFINEMENTS.

AT ANY RATE...STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FORECAST...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S.  RAPID MODIFICATION OF POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS GETS UNDERWAY
ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS ABOVE CLIMO TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  03

COCKRELL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...
GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM TEXHOMA TO GOODNIGHT.  SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES FALL WELL BELOW 20 PERCENT.  SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM SPEARMAN TO MEMPHIS.  ON
SUNDAY...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
SOUTHWEST 4 COUNTIES OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.  NO ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.  03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                77  42  78  42  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  73  34  78  33  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              77  39  78  37  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  76  45  79  43  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              77  39  77  38  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  77  42  78  43  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               75  43  80  42  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 78  36  77  34  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  77  38  79  37  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                78  41  80  42  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                72  39  78  40  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   74  43  77  42  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                69  41  78  41  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              70  42  78  41  70 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/03






000
FXUS64 KAMA 280504
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1104 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.AVIATION...

WINDS SHOULD VEER SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS REMAINING IN THE
10-15 KNOT RANGE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TOMORROW WITH PEAK
SPEEDS OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS MAY BE
OBSERVED BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A RATHER BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FOR
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS THE MAIN WEATHER CHALLENGES WILL BE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
ON SUNDAY.

SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT GIVING WAY TO CLEAR SKIES WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE 30S. FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS EASILY 12 TO
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH A FEW LOCATIONS EVEN APPROACHING THE 80
DEGREE MARK. SO GET OUT AND ENJOY...MAYBE PUT UP THOSE CHRISTMAS
LIGHTS AND DECORATIONS BECAUSE BIG CHANGES ARE ON THE HORIZON.

SUNDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIG HIGH TEMPERATURE BUST AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TAKES AIM FOR THE REGION. IT WOULD NOT BE A
SURPRISE TO SEE A LARGE (25F+ DEGREE) TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONT LOOKS
TO BE QUITE THE HEADACHE AS THE GFS IS ROUGHLY 6-8 HOURS FASTER WITH
ITS ARRIVAL THAN THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. IF THE FASTER GFS
SOLUTION OCCURS...HIGHS COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN THE
CURRENT 60S FORECAST. HOWEVER...IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION PANS
OUT...SUNDAY COULD TURN INTO A NICE WARM DAY ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH MONDAY MORNING LOWS DIPPING WELL
INTO THE TEENS...A FAR CRY FROM THE ALMOST 80S 48 HOURS BEFOREHAND!
MONDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY STAY IN THE 30S.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY TAKE OVER THE PATTERN BY TUESDAY AS A
NICE WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGHS
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH 60S EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

KNS

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND ON SATURDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE PANHANDLES...AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT AND WESTERLY 20FT WINDS INCREASE ABOVE
15MPH.

KNS

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/03







000
FXUS64 KAMA 280504
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1104 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.AVIATION...

WINDS SHOULD VEER SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS REMAINING IN THE
10-15 KNOT RANGE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TOMORROW WITH PEAK
SPEEDS OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS MAY BE
OBSERVED BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A RATHER BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FOR
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS THE MAIN WEATHER CHALLENGES WILL BE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
ON SUNDAY.

SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT GIVING WAY TO CLEAR SKIES WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE 30S. FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS EASILY 12 TO
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH A FEW LOCATIONS EVEN APPROACHING THE 80
DEGREE MARK. SO GET OUT AND ENJOY...MAYBE PUT UP THOSE CHRISTMAS
LIGHTS AND DECORATIONS BECAUSE BIG CHANGES ARE ON THE HORIZON.

SUNDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIG HIGH TEMPERATURE BUST AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TAKES AIM FOR THE REGION. IT WOULD NOT BE A
SURPRISE TO SEE A LARGE (25F+ DEGREE) TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONT LOOKS
TO BE QUITE THE HEADACHE AS THE GFS IS ROUGHLY 6-8 HOURS FASTER WITH
ITS ARRIVAL THAN THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. IF THE FASTER GFS
SOLUTION OCCURS...HIGHS COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN THE
CURRENT 60S FORECAST. HOWEVER...IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION PANS
OUT...SUNDAY COULD TURN INTO A NICE WARM DAY ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH MONDAY MORNING LOWS DIPPING WELL
INTO THE TEENS...A FAR CRY FROM THE ALMOST 80S 48 HOURS BEFOREHAND!
MONDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY STAY IN THE 30S.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY TAKE OVER THE PATTERN BY TUESDAY AS A
NICE WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGHS
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH 60S EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

KNS

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND ON SATURDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE PANHANDLES...AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT AND WESTERLY 20FT WINDS INCREASE ABOVE
15MPH.

KNS

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/03






000
FXUS64 KAMA 272312 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
512 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 15KTS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A RATHER BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FOR
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS THE MAIN WEATHER CHALLENGES WILL BE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
ON SUNDAY.

SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT GIVING WAY TO CLEAR SKIES WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE 30S. FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS EASILY 12 TO
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH A FEW LOCATIONS EVEN APPROACHING THE 80
DEGREE MARK. SO GET OUT AND ENJOY...MAYBE PUT UP THOSE CHRISTMAS
LIGHTS AND DECORATIONS BECAUSE BIG CHANGES ARE ON THE HORIZON.

SUNDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIG HIGH TEMPERATURE BUST AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TAKES AIM FOR THE REGION. IT WOULD NOT BE A
SURPRISE TO SEE A LARGE (25F+ DEGREE) TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONT LOOKS
TO BE QUITE THE HEADACHE AS THE GFS IS ROUGHLY 6-8 HOURS FASTER WITH
ITS ARRIVAL THAN THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. IF THE FASTER GFS
SOLUTION OCCURS...HIGHS COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN THE
CURRENT 60S FORECAST. HOWEVER...IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION PANS
OUT...SUNDAY COULD TURN INTO A NICE WARM DAY ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH MONDAY MORNING LOWS DIPPING WELL
INTO THE TEENS...A FAR CRY FROM THE ALMOST 80S 48 HOURS BEFOREHAND!
MONDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY STAY IN THE 30S.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY TAKE OVER THE PATTERN BY TUESDAY AS A
NICE WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGHS
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH 60S EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

KNS

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND ON SATURDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE PANHANDLES...AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT AND WESTERLY 20FT WINDS INCREASE ABOVE
15MPH.

KNS

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/15







000
FXUS64 KAMA 272312 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
512 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 15KTS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A RATHER BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FOR
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS THE MAIN WEATHER CHALLENGES WILL BE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
ON SUNDAY.

SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT GIVING WAY TO CLEAR SKIES WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE 30S. FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS EASILY 12 TO
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH A FEW LOCATIONS EVEN APPROACHING THE 80
DEGREE MARK. SO GET OUT AND ENJOY...MAYBE PUT UP THOSE CHRISTMAS
LIGHTS AND DECORATIONS BECAUSE BIG CHANGES ARE ON THE HORIZON.

SUNDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIG HIGH TEMPERATURE BUST AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TAKES AIM FOR THE REGION. IT WOULD NOT BE A
SURPRISE TO SEE A LARGE (25F+ DEGREE) TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONT LOOKS
TO BE QUITE THE HEADACHE AS THE GFS IS ROUGHLY 6-8 HOURS FASTER WITH
ITS ARRIVAL THAN THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. IF THE FASTER GFS
SOLUTION OCCURS...HIGHS COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN THE
CURRENT 60S FORECAST. HOWEVER...IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION PANS
OUT...SUNDAY COULD TURN INTO A NICE WARM DAY ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH MONDAY MORNING LOWS DIPPING WELL
INTO THE TEENS...A FAR CRY FROM THE ALMOST 80S 48 HOURS BEFOREHAND!
MONDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY STAY IN THE 30S.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY TAKE OVER THE PATTERN BY TUESDAY AS A
NICE WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGHS
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH 60S EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

KNS

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND ON SATURDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE PANHANDLES...AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT AND WESTERLY 20FT WINDS INCREASE ABOVE
15MPH.

KNS

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/15






000
FXUS64 KAMA 272115
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
315 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FOR
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS THE MAIN WEATHER CHALLENGES WILL BE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
ON SUNDAY.

SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT GIVING WAY TO CLEAR SKIES WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE 30S. FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS EASILY 12 TO
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH A FEW LOCATIONS EVEN APPROACHING THE 80
DEGREE MARK. SO GET OUT AND ENJOY...MAYBE PUT UP THOSE CHRISTMAS
LIGHTS AND DECORATIONS BECAUSE BIG CHANGES ARE ON THE HORIZON.

SUNDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIG HIGH TEMPERATURE BUST AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TAKES AIM FOR THE REGION. IT WOULD NOT BE A
SURPRISE TO SEE A LARGE (25F+ DEGREE) TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONT LOOKS
TO BE QUITE THE HEADACHE AS THE GFS IS ROUGHLY 6-8 HOURS FASTER WITH
ITS ARRIVAL THAN THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. IF THE FASTER GFS
SOLUTION OCCURS...HIGHS COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN THE
CURRENT 60S FORECAST. HOWEVER...IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION PANS
OUT...SUNDAY COULD TURN INTO A NICE WARM DAY ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH MONDAY MORNING LOWS DIPPING WELL
INTO THE TEENS...A FAR CRY FROM THE ALMOST 80S 48 HOURS BEFOREHAND!
MONDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY STAY IN THE 30S.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY TAKE OVER THE PATTERN BY TUESDAY AS A
NICE WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGHS
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH 60S EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

KNS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND ON SATURDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE PANHANDLES...AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT AND WESTERLY 20FT WINDS INCREASE ABOVE
15MPH.

KNS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                35  76  40  79  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  30  73  31  75  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              35  78  38  78  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  37  78  43  81  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              33  78  38  78  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  34  77  40  77  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               34  76  40  80  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 29  79  33  79  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  32  76  35  79  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                34  78  40  79  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                35  72  36  76  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   35  75  41  77  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                32  69  37  78  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              35  70  39  79  42 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KAMA 272115
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
315 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FOR
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS THE MAIN WEATHER CHALLENGES WILL BE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
ON SUNDAY.

SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT GIVING WAY TO CLEAR SKIES WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE 30S. FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS EASILY 12 TO
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH A FEW LOCATIONS EVEN APPROACHING THE 80
DEGREE MARK. SO GET OUT AND ENJOY...MAYBE PUT UP THOSE CHRISTMAS
LIGHTS AND DECORATIONS BECAUSE BIG CHANGES ARE ON THE HORIZON.

SUNDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIG HIGH TEMPERATURE BUST AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TAKES AIM FOR THE REGION. IT WOULD NOT BE A
SURPRISE TO SEE A LARGE (25F+ DEGREE) TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONT LOOKS
TO BE QUITE THE HEADACHE AS THE GFS IS ROUGHLY 6-8 HOURS FASTER WITH
ITS ARRIVAL THAN THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. IF THE FASTER GFS
SOLUTION OCCURS...HIGHS COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN THE
CURRENT 60S FORECAST. HOWEVER...IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION PANS
OUT...SUNDAY COULD TURN INTO A NICE WARM DAY ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH MONDAY MORNING LOWS DIPPING WELL
INTO THE TEENS...A FAR CRY FROM THE ALMOST 80S 48 HOURS BEFOREHAND!
MONDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY STAY IN THE 30S.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY TAKE OVER THE PATTERN BY TUESDAY AS A
NICE WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGHS
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH 60S EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

KNS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND ON SATURDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE PANHANDLES...AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT AND WESTERLY 20FT WINDS INCREASE ABOVE
15MPH.

KNS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                35  76  40  79  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  30  73  31  75  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              35  78  38  78  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  37  78  43  81  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              33  78  38  78  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  34  77  40  77  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               34  76  40  80  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 29  79  33  79  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  32  76  35  79  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                34  78  40  79  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                35  72  36  76  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   35  75  41  77  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                32  69  37  78  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              35  70  39  79  42 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KAMA 271708 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1108 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND GUSTS UP TO 26KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z.

KNS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS HAVE BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AT KGUY AND KDHT EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL INCREASE
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AT KAMA BY MID MORNING WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 POSSIBLE
DURING PEAK MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BACK SLIGHTLY TO
SOUTHERLY ONCE MIXING SUBSIDES THIS EVENING DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
POSITION OF STRENGTHENING LEE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST. THEREFORE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED MAY BE NEEDED
ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

BRB

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

FORECAST FOR PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH THANKSGIVING WEEKEND
CONTINUES.  NOTABLY WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO LOWER-70S.  VERY WARM ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70 TO 80 DEGREE FAHRENHEIT RANGE DAILY.  COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE 60 TO
75 DEGREE RANGE.  NO POPS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...OR IN ANY OF
FORECAST FOR THAT MATTER...DUE TO EXPECTED DRY NATURE OF
ATMOSPHERE.  MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-30S TO MID-
40S.  POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MODIFY...WITH HIGHS
ON TUESDAY ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.  03

COCKRELL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND ON SATURDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES...AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT AND WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE.
03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KAMA 271107
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
507 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS HAVE BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AT KGUY AND KDHT EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL INCREASE
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AT KAMA BY MID MORNING WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 POSSIBLE
DURING PEAK MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BACK SLIGHTLY TO
SOUTHERLY ONCE MIXING SUBSIDES THIS EVENING DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
POSITION OF STRENGTHENING LEE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST. THEREFORE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED MAY BE NEEDED
ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOR PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH THANKSGIVING WEEKEND
CONTINUES.  NOTABLY WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO LOWER-70S.  VERY WARM ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70 TO 80 DEGREE FAHRENHEIT RANGE DAILY.  COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE 60 TO
75 DEGREE RANGE.  NO POPS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...OR IN ANY OF
FORECAST FOR THAT MATTER...DUE TO EXPECTED DRY NATURE OF
ATMOSPHERE.  MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-30S TO MID-
40S.  POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MODIFY...WITH HIGHS
ON TUESDAY ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.  03

COCKRELL

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND ON SATURDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES...AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT AND WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE.
03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                61  35  76  39  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  63  31  74  31  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              70  34  79  37  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  66  38  80  39  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              66  34  78  37  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  62  32  77  38  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               60  37  74  41  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 66  27  78  30  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  69  32  76  34  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                64  32  78  38  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                62  32  74  33  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   60  37  72  38  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                60  33  70  36  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              60  34  72  36  78 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/03







000
FXUS64 KAMA 271107
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
507 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS HAVE BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AT KGUY AND KDHT EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL INCREASE
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AT KAMA BY MID MORNING WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 POSSIBLE
DURING PEAK MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BACK SLIGHTLY TO
SOUTHERLY ONCE MIXING SUBSIDES THIS EVENING DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
POSITION OF STRENGTHENING LEE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST. THEREFORE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED MAY BE NEEDED
ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOR PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH THANKSGIVING WEEKEND
CONTINUES.  NOTABLY WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO LOWER-70S.  VERY WARM ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70 TO 80 DEGREE FAHRENHEIT RANGE DAILY.  COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE 60 TO
75 DEGREE RANGE.  NO POPS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...OR IN ANY OF
FORECAST FOR THAT MATTER...DUE TO EXPECTED DRY NATURE OF
ATMOSPHERE.  MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-30S TO MID-
40S.  POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MODIFY...WITH HIGHS
ON TUESDAY ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.  03

COCKRELL

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND ON SATURDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES...AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT AND WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE.
03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                61  35  76  39  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  63  31  74  31  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              70  34  79  37  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  66  38  80  39  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              66  34  78  37  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  62  32  77  38  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               60  37  74  41  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 66  27  78  30  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  69  32  76  34  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                64  32  78  38  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                62  32  74  33  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   60  37  72  38  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                60  33  70  36  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              60  34  72  36  78 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/03






000
FXUS64 KAMA 270946
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
340 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOR PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH THANKSGIVING WEEKEND
CONTINUES.  NOTABLY WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO LOWER-70S.  VERY WARM ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70 TO 80 DEGREE FAHRENHEIT RANGE DAILY.  COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE 60 TO
75 DEGREE RANGE.  NO POPS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...OR IN ANY OF
FORECAST FOR THAT MATTER...DUE TO EXPECTED DRY NATURE OF
ATMOSPHERE.  MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-30S TO MID-
40S.  POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MODIFY...WITH HIGHS
ON TUESDAY ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.  03

COCKRELL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND ON SATURDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES...AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT AND WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE.
03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                61  35  76  39  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  63  31  74  31  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              70  34  79  37  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  66  38  80  39  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              66  34  78  37  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  62  32  77  38  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               60  37  74  41  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 66  27  78  30  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  69  32  76  34  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                64  32  78  38  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                62  32  74  33  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   60  37  72  38  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                60  33  70  36  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              60  34  72  36  78 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/03






000
FXUS64 KAMA 270946
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
340 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOR PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH THANKSGIVING WEEKEND
CONTINUES.  NOTABLY WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO LOWER-70S.  VERY WARM ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70 TO 80 DEGREE FAHRENHEIT RANGE DAILY.  COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE 60 TO
75 DEGREE RANGE.  NO POPS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...OR IN ANY OF
FORECAST FOR THAT MATTER...DUE TO EXPECTED DRY NATURE OF
ATMOSPHERE.  MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-30S TO MID-
40S.  POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MODIFY...WITH HIGHS
ON TUESDAY ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.  03

COCKRELL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND ON SATURDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES...AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT AND WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE.
03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                61  35  76  39  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  63  31  74  31  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              70  34  79  37  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  66  38  80  39  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              66  34  78  37  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  62  32  77  38  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               60  37  74  41  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 66  27  78  30  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  69  32  76  34  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                64  32  78  38  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                62  32  74  33  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   60  37  72  38  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                60  33  70  36  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              60  34  72  36  78 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/03





000
FXUS64 KAMA 270523
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1123 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...

/06Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO SOUTHERLY OR
SOUTHWESTERLY BY MORNING AND WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS. BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING WINDS
WILL DECREASE AS MIXING SUBSIDES.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ON TAP THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...BEFORE A COLD FRONT USHERS IN SOME COOLER AIR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

NORTHERLY WINDS IN WAKE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH
LAST NIGHT HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES A SHADE BELOW AVERAGE TODAY...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS RUNNING IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN WESTERN UPPER RIDGING AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY HAS BROUGHT SOME PASSING CIRRUS TODAY...BUT
THAT/S ABOUT IT.

A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER LOOKS TO ROUND OUT THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER
AND WELCOME IN DECEMBER. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY OFFERS
THE BEST CHANCE OF POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH /RECORD HIGH OF 77F AT
AMARILLO/. THE WARMING TREND WILL START TOMORROW AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
RISE ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING CROSS-MOUNTAIN FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...WHICH WILL INDUCE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZES ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S IN THE
SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER/MID 70S IN THE WESTERN OK
PANHANDLE. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ZONAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PAC NW...MAINTAINING
BROAD LEE SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE PLAINS. RESULTANT LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...ALONG WITH THE ADDED COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING...WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
A FEW LOW 80S CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY REMAIN A LITTLE TRICKY...HINGING ON COLD
FRONTAL TIMING. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THIS FRONT WILL HOLD UP LONG
ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE IN ONE MORE MILD DAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA TO ROUND
OUT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. CURRENTLY EXPECTING THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO
THE OK PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
SWEEP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING...SETTING UP A
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST HIGH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT THAT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE FINE-TUNED OVER THE COMING DAYS. A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND
LACK OF UPPER FORCING WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE
FRONT.

WE/LL SEE A BRIEF SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY IN THE
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS...BUT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MODERATE QUICKLY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BENEATH A CONTINUED PROGRESSIVE QUASI-ZONAL UPPER
FLOW. MAY SEE ANOTHER FRONT AROUND MID NEXT WEEK...BUT NOT A LOT OF
AGREEMENT REGARDING THIS ATTM.

KB

FIRE WEATHER...
A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON THURSDAY...AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...APPROACHING RECORD
VALUES. WITH THIS WARMING...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN OK PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST TX
PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY...THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST UNDER 15
MPH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES WHERE THE LOWER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST...THUS NO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOONS AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY AGAIN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/03






000
FXUS64 KAMA 270523
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1123 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...

/06Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO SOUTHERLY OR
SOUTHWESTERLY BY MORNING AND WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS. BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING WINDS
WILL DECREASE AS MIXING SUBSIDES.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ON TAP THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...BEFORE A COLD FRONT USHERS IN SOME COOLER AIR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

NORTHERLY WINDS IN WAKE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH
LAST NIGHT HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES A SHADE BELOW AVERAGE TODAY...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS RUNNING IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN WESTERN UPPER RIDGING AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY HAS BROUGHT SOME PASSING CIRRUS TODAY...BUT
THAT/S ABOUT IT.

A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER LOOKS TO ROUND OUT THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER
AND WELCOME IN DECEMBER. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY OFFERS
THE BEST CHANCE OF POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH /RECORD HIGH OF 77F AT
AMARILLO/. THE WARMING TREND WILL START TOMORROW AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
RISE ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING CROSS-MOUNTAIN FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...WHICH WILL INDUCE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZES ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S IN THE
SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER/MID 70S IN THE WESTERN OK
PANHANDLE. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ZONAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PAC NW...MAINTAINING
BROAD LEE SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE PLAINS. RESULTANT LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...ALONG WITH THE ADDED COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING...WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
A FEW LOW 80S CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY REMAIN A LITTLE TRICKY...HINGING ON COLD
FRONTAL TIMING. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THIS FRONT WILL HOLD UP LONG
ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE IN ONE MORE MILD DAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA TO ROUND
OUT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. CURRENTLY EXPECTING THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO
THE OK PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
SWEEP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING...SETTING UP A
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST HIGH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT THAT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE FINE-TUNED OVER THE COMING DAYS. A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND
LACK OF UPPER FORCING WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE
FRONT.

WE/LL SEE A BRIEF SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY IN THE
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS...BUT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MODERATE QUICKLY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BENEATH A CONTINUED PROGRESSIVE QUASI-ZONAL UPPER
FLOW. MAY SEE ANOTHER FRONT AROUND MID NEXT WEEK...BUT NOT A LOT OF
AGREEMENT REGARDING THIS ATTM.

KB

FIRE WEATHER...
A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON THURSDAY...AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...APPROACHING RECORD
VALUES. WITH THIS WARMING...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN OK PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST TX
PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY...THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST UNDER 15
MPH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES WHERE THE LOWER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST...THUS NO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOONS AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY AGAIN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/03







000
FXUS64 KAMA 262342 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
542 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE VALID TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ON TAP THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...BEFORE A COLD FRONT USHERS IN SOME COOLER AIR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

NORTHERLY WINDS IN WAKE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH
LAST NIGHT HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES A SHADE BELOW AVERAGE TODAY...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS RUNNING IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN WESTERN UPPER RIDGING AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY HAS BROUGHT SOME PASSING CIRRUS TODAY...BUT
THAT/S ABOUT IT.

A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER LOOKS TO ROUND OUT THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER
AND WELCOME IN DECEMBER. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY OFFERS
THE BEST CHANCE OF POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH /RECORD HIGH OF 77F AT
AMARILLO/. THE WARMING TREND WILL START TOMORROW AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
RISE ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING CROSS-MOUNTAIN FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...WHICH WILL INDUCE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZES ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S IN THE
SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER/MID 70S IN THE WESTERN OK
PANHANDLE. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ZONAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PAC NW...MAINTAINING
BROAD LEE SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE PLAINS. RESULTANT LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...ALONG WITH THE ADDED COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING...WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
A FEW LOW 80S CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY REMAIN A LITTLE TRICKY...HINGING ON COLD
FRONTAL TIMING. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THIS FRONT WILL HOLD UP LONG
ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE IN ONE MORE MILD DAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA TO ROUND
OUT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. CURRENTLY EXPECTING THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO
THE OK PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
SWEEP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING...SETTING UP A
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST HIGH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT THAT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE FINE-TUNED OVER THE COMING DAYS. A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND
LACK OF UPPER FORCING WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE
FRONT.

WE/LL SEE A BRIEF SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY IN THE
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS...BUT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MODERATE QUICKLY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BENEATH A CONTINUED PROGRESSIVE QUASI-ZONAL UPPER
FLOW. MAY SEE ANOTHER FRONT AROUND MID NEXT WEEK...BUT NOT A LOT OF
AGREEMENT REGARDING THIS ATTM.

KB

FIRE WEATHER...
A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON THURSDAY...AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...APPROACHING RECORD
VALUES. WITH THIS WARMING...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN OK PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST TX
PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY...THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST UNDER 15
MPH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES WHERE THE LOWER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST...THUS NO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOONS AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY AGAIN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

05







000
FXUS64 KAMA 262342 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
542 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE VALID TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ON TAP THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...BEFORE A COLD FRONT USHERS IN SOME COOLER AIR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

NORTHERLY WINDS IN WAKE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH
LAST NIGHT HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES A SHADE BELOW AVERAGE TODAY...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS RUNNING IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN WESTERN UPPER RIDGING AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY HAS BROUGHT SOME PASSING CIRRUS TODAY...BUT
THAT/S ABOUT IT.

A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER LOOKS TO ROUND OUT THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER
AND WELCOME IN DECEMBER. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY OFFERS
THE BEST CHANCE OF POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH /RECORD HIGH OF 77F AT
AMARILLO/. THE WARMING TREND WILL START TOMORROW AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
RISE ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING CROSS-MOUNTAIN FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...WHICH WILL INDUCE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZES ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S IN THE
SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER/MID 70S IN THE WESTERN OK
PANHANDLE. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ZONAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PAC NW...MAINTAINING
BROAD LEE SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE PLAINS. RESULTANT LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...ALONG WITH THE ADDED COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING...WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
A FEW LOW 80S CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY REMAIN A LITTLE TRICKY...HINGING ON COLD
FRONTAL TIMING. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THIS FRONT WILL HOLD UP LONG
ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE IN ONE MORE MILD DAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA TO ROUND
OUT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. CURRENTLY EXPECTING THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO
THE OK PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
SWEEP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING...SETTING UP A
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST HIGH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT THAT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE FINE-TUNED OVER THE COMING DAYS. A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND
LACK OF UPPER FORCING WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE
FRONT.

WE/LL SEE A BRIEF SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY IN THE
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS...BUT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MODERATE QUICKLY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BENEATH A CONTINUED PROGRESSIVE QUASI-ZONAL UPPER
FLOW. MAY SEE ANOTHER FRONT AROUND MID NEXT WEEK...BUT NOT A LOT OF
AGREEMENT REGARDING THIS ATTM.

KB

FIRE WEATHER...
A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON THURSDAY...AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...APPROACHING RECORD
VALUES. WITH THIS WARMING...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN OK PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST TX
PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY...THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST UNDER 15
MPH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES WHERE THE LOWER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST...THUS NO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOONS AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY AGAIN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

05






000
FXUS64 KAMA 262159
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
359 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ON TAP THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...BEFORE A COLD FRONT USHERS IN SOME COOLER AIR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

NORTHERLY WINDS IN WAKE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH
LAST NIGHT HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES A SHADE BELOW AVERAGE TODAY...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS RUNNING IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN WESTERN UPPER RIDGING AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY HAS BROUGHT SOME PASSING CIRRUS TODAY...BUT
THAT/S ABOUT IT.

A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER LOOKS TO ROUND OUT THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER
AND WELCOME IN DECEMBER. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY OFFERS
THE BEST CHANCE OF POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH /RECORD HIGH OF 77F AT
AMARILLO/. THE WARMING TREND WILL START TOMORROW AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
RISE ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING CROSS-MOUNTAIN FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...WHICH WILL INDUCE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZES ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S IN THE
SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER/MID 70S IN THE WESTERN OK
PANHANDLE. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ZONAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PAC NW...MAINTAINING
BROAD LEE SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE PLAINS. RESULTANT LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...ALONG WITH THE ADDED COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING...WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
A FEW LOW 80S CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY REMAIN A LITTLE TRICKY...HINGING ON COLD
FRONTAL TIMING. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THIS FRONT WILL HOLD UP LONG
ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE IN ONE MORE MILD DAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA TO ROUND
OUT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. CURRENTLY EXPECTING THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO
THE OK PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
SWEEP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING...SETTING UP A
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST HIGH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT THAT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE FINE-TUNED OVER THE COMING DAYS. A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND
LACK OF UPPER FORCING WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE
FRONT.

WE/LL SEE A BRIEF SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY IN THE
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS...BUT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MODERATE QUICKLY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BENEATH A CONTINUED PROGRESSIVE QUASI-ZONAL UPPER
FLOW. MAY SEE ANOTHER FRONT AROUND MID NEXT WEEK...BUT NOT A LOT OF
AGREEMENT REGARDING THIS ATTM.

KB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON THURSDAY...AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...APPROACHING RECORD
VALUES. WITH THIS WARMING...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN OK PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST TX
PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY...THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST UNDER 15
MPH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES WHERE THE LOWER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST...THUS NO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOONS AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY AGAIN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

KB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                28  63  37  76  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  24  62  33  71  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              28  70  34  77  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  30  65  38  74  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              27  66  34  76  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  28  64  36  77  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               29  61  36  74  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 24  66  32  75  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  25  67  33  76  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                28  65  35  77  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                28  61  36  72  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   29  59  37  70  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                28  59  34  71  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              29  59  36  72  40 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

20/08






000
FXUS64 KAMA 262159
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
359 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ON TAP THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...BEFORE A COLD FRONT USHERS IN SOME COOLER AIR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

NORTHERLY WINDS IN WAKE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH
LAST NIGHT HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES A SHADE BELOW AVERAGE TODAY...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS RUNNING IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN WESTERN UPPER RIDGING AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY HAS BROUGHT SOME PASSING CIRRUS TODAY...BUT
THAT/S ABOUT IT.

A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER LOOKS TO ROUND OUT THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER
AND WELCOME IN DECEMBER. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY OFFERS
THE BEST CHANCE OF POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH /RECORD HIGH OF 77F AT
AMARILLO/. THE WARMING TREND WILL START TOMORROW AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
RISE ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING CROSS-MOUNTAIN FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...WHICH WILL INDUCE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZES ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S IN THE
SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER/MID 70S IN THE WESTERN OK
PANHANDLE. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ZONAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PAC NW...MAINTAINING
BROAD LEE SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE PLAINS. RESULTANT LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...ALONG WITH THE ADDED COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING...WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
A FEW LOW 80S CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY REMAIN A LITTLE TRICKY...HINGING ON COLD
FRONTAL TIMING. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THIS FRONT WILL HOLD UP LONG
ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE IN ONE MORE MILD DAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA TO ROUND
OUT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. CURRENTLY EXPECTING THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO
THE OK PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
SWEEP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING...SETTING UP A
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST HIGH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT THAT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE FINE-TUNED OVER THE COMING DAYS. A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND
LACK OF UPPER FORCING WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE
FRONT.

WE/LL SEE A BRIEF SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY IN THE
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS...BUT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MODERATE QUICKLY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BENEATH A CONTINUED PROGRESSIVE QUASI-ZONAL UPPER
FLOW. MAY SEE ANOTHER FRONT AROUND MID NEXT WEEK...BUT NOT A LOT OF
AGREEMENT REGARDING THIS ATTM.

KB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON THURSDAY...AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...APPROACHING RECORD
VALUES. WITH THIS WARMING...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN OK PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST TX
PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY...THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST UNDER 15
MPH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES WHERE THE LOWER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST...THUS NO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOONS AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY AGAIN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

KB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                28  63  37  76  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  24  62  33  71  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              28  70  34  77  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  30  65  38  74  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              27  66  34  76  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  28  64  36  77  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               29  61  36  74  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 24  66  32  75  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  25  67  33  76  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                28  65  35  77  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                28  61  36  72  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   29  59  37  70  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                28  59  34  71  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              29  59  36  72  40 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

20/08







000
FXUS64 KAMA 262159
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
359 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ON TAP THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...BEFORE A COLD FRONT USHERS IN SOME COOLER AIR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

NORTHERLY WINDS IN WAKE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH
LAST NIGHT HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES A SHADE BELOW AVERAGE TODAY...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS RUNNING IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN WESTERN UPPER RIDGING AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY HAS BROUGHT SOME PASSING CIRRUS TODAY...BUT
THAT/S ABOUT IT.

A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER LOOKS TO ROUND OUT THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER
AND WELCOME IN DECEMBER. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY OFFERS
THE BEST CHANCE OF POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH /RECORD HIGH OF 77F AT
AMARILLO/. THE WARMING TREND WILL START TOMORROW AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
RISE ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING CROSS-MOUNTAIN FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...WHICH WILL INDUCE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZES ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S IN THE
SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER/MID 70S IN THE WESTERN OK
PANHANDLE. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ZONAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PAC NW...MAINTAINING
BROAD LEE SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE PLAINS. RESULTANT LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...ALONG WITH THE ADDED COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING...WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
A FEW LOW 80S CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY REMAIN A LITTLE TRICKY...HINGING ON COLD
FRONTAL TIMING. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THIS FRONT WILL HOLD UP LONG
ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE IN ONE MORE MILD DAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA TO ROUND
OUT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. CURRENTLY EXPECTING THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO
THE OK PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
SWEEP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING...SETTING UP A
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST HIGH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT THAT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE FINE-TUNED OVER THE COMING DAYS. A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND
LACK OF UPPER FORCING WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE
FRONT.

WE/LL SEE A BRIEF SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY IN THE
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS...BUT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MODERATE QUICKLY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BENEATH A CONTINUED PROGRESSIVE QUASI-ZONAL UPPER
FLOW. MAY SEE ANOTHER FRONT AROUND MID NEXT WEEK...BUT NOT A LOT OF
AGREEMENT REGARDING THIS ATTM.

KB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON THURSDAY...AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...APPROACHING RECORD
VALUES. WITH THIS WARMING...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN OK PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST TX
PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY...THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST UNDER 15
MPH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES WHERE THE LOWER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST...THUS NO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOONS AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY AGAIN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

KB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                28  63  37  76  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  24  62  33  71  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              28  70  34  77  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  30  65  38  74  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              27  66  34  76  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  28  64  36  77  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               29  61  36  74  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 24  66  32  75  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  25  67  33  76  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                28  65  35  77  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                28  61  36  72  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   29  59  37  70  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                28  59  34  71  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              29  59  36  72  40 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

20/08






000
FXUS64 KAMA 262159
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
359 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ON TAP THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...BEFORE A COLD FRONT USHERS IN SOME COOLER AIR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

NORTHERLY WINDS IN WAKE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH
LAST NIGHT HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES A SHADE BELOW AVERAGE TODAY...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS RUNNING IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN WESTERN UPPER RIDGING AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY HAS BROUGHT SOME PASSING CIRRUS TODAY...BUT
THAT/S ABOUT IT.

A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER LOOKS TO ROUND OUT THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER
AND WELCOME IN DECEMBER. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY OFFERS
THE BEST CHANCE OF POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH /RECORD HIGH OF 77F AT
AMARILLO/. THE WARMING TREND WILL START TOMORROW AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
RISE ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING CROSS-MOUNTAIN FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...WHICH WILL INDUCE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZES ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S IN THE
SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER/MID 70S IN THE WESTERN OK
PANHANDLE. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ZONAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PAC NW...MAINTAINING
BROAD LEE SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE PLAINS. RESULTANT LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...ALONG WITH THE ADDED COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING...WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
A FEW LOW 80S CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY REMAIN A LITTLE TRICKY...HINGING ON COLD
FRONTAL TIMING. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THIS FRONT WILL HOLD UP LONG
ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE IN ONE MORE MILD DAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA TO ROUND
OUT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. CURRENTLY EXPECTING THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO
THE OK PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
SWEEP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING...SETTING UP A
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST HIGH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT THAT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE FINE-TUNED OVER THE COMING DAYS. A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND
LACK OF UPPER FORCING WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE
FRONT.

WE/LL SEE A BRIEF SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY IN THE
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS...BUT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MODERATE QUICKLY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BENEATH A CONTINUED PROGRESSIVE QUASI-ZONAL UPPER
FLOW. MAY SEE ANOTHER FRONT AROUND MID NEXT WEEK...BUT NOT A LOT OF
AGREEMENT REGARDING THIS ATTM.

KB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON THURSDAY...AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...APPROACHING RECORD
VALUES. WITH THIS WARMING...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN OK PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST TX
PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY...THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST UNDER 15
MPH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES WHERE THE LOWER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST...THUS NO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOONS AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY AGAIN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

KB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                28  63  37  76  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  24  62  33  71  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              28  70  34  77  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  30  65  38  74  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              27  66  34  76  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  28  64  36  77  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               29  61  36  74  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 24  66  32  75  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  25  67  33  76  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                28  65  35  77  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                28  61  36  72  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   29  59  37  70  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                28  59  34  71  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              29  59  36  72  40 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

20/08







000
FXUS64 KAMA 261747 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1147 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WINDS DECREASING
AND VEERING TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
AFTER 00Z.

KNS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

AVIATION...
GOOD FLYING WEATHER EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.  GENERALLY CLEAR
SKY WITH A SMALL AMOUNT OF CIRRUS IS FORECAST.  NORTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KT MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST TO ABOVE 25 KT THIS
MORNING.  SURFACE WINDS DECREASE NOTABLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH DIRECTION BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY EARLY EVENING.  LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...TRENDING TO LIGHT SOUTHWEST BY 12Z
THURSDAY.  NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.  VFR FORECAST
CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. SOME
CHALLENGES EXIST FOR THIS FORECAST INCLUDING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY LATE WEEK...POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS...AND TIMING OF A COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

A WEAK FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE REGION BY SUNRISE BRINGING
A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING
THE DAY AND GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY TOMORROW NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH
CONSIDERABLE HEIGHT RISES. LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXPAND AND
STRENGTHEN AS MEAN FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES. ITS ORIENTATION WILL PLACE THE PANHANDLES IN AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE NOVEMBER. NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY ON SUNDAY AND WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION. MODEL TRENDS IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF
THIS SHORTWAVE HAVE RESULTED IN A LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE THAN WAS
PREVIOUSLY DEPICTED. ALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE NOW HAS THE FRONT
ENTERING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
PROGRESSING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. THIS HAS SIGNIFICANT
IMPLICATIONS FOR TEMPERATURES AND DECIDED TO INCREASE HIGHS ON
SUNDAY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE BLEND. EVEN IF MODELS ARE TOO SLOW
WITH THE FRONT...AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR
MASSES...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE ABLE TO
WARM SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE THE VALUES GIVEN BY THE BLEND WHICH HAS SOME
INFLUENCE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS/FORECASTS.

SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EMERGE IN MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK LEADING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR WARMING AFTER A SHORT
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH AFOREMENTIONED POST FRONTAL
AIR MASS. ECMWF HAS A SHORTWAVE MOVING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MIDWEST BY LATE TUESDAY. GFS IS MORE PRONOUNCED WITH UPPER RIDGING
BEFORE A STRONGER MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.

BRB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS BUT EACH AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO AT OR BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR
AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA. A SHORT DURATION OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SEEMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND STRONGEST 20 FOOT WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE MISALIGNED. BETTER POTENTIAL MAY EXIST ON SATURDAY
WHEN DEEPER MIXING MAY OCCUR.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KAMA 261747 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1147 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WINDS DECREASING
AND VEERING TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
AFTER 00Z.

KNS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

AVIATION...
GOOD FLYING WEATHER EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.  GENERALLY CLEAR
SKY WITH A SMALL AMOUNT OF CIRRUS IS FORECAST.  NORTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KT MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST TO ABOVE 25 KT THIS
MORNING.  SURFACE WINDS DECREASE NOTABLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH DIRECTION BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY EARLY EVENING.  LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...TRENDING TO LIGHT SOUTHWEST BY 12Z
THURSDAY.  NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.  VFR FORECAST
CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. SOME
CHALLENGES EXIST FOR THIS FORECAST INCLUDING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY LATE WEEK...POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS...AND TIMING OF A COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

A WEAK FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE REGION BY SUNRISE BRINGING
A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING
THE DAY AND GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY TOMORROW NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH
CONSIDERABLE HEIGHT RISES. LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXPAND AND
STRENGTHEN AS MEAN FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES. ITS ORIENTATION WILL PLACE THE PANHANDLES IN AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE NOVEMBER. NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY ON SUNDAY AND WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION. MODEL TRENDS IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF
THIS SHORTWAVE HAVE RESULTED IN A LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE THAN WAS
PREVIOUSLY DEPICTED. ALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE NOW HAS THE FRONT
ENTERING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
PROGRESSING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. THIS HAS SIGNIFICANT
IMPLICATIONS FOR TEMPERATURES AND DECIDED TO INCREASE HIGHS ON
SUNDAY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE BLEND. EVEN IF MODELS ARE TOO SLOW
WITH THE FRONT...AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR
MASSES...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE ABLE TO
WARM SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE THE VALUES GIVEN BY THE BLEND WHICH HAS SOME
INFLUENCE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS/FORECASTS.

SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EMERGE IN MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK LEADING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR WARMING AFTER A SHORT
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH AFOREMENTIONED POST FRONTAL
AIR MASS. ECMWF HAS A SHORTWAVE MOVING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MIDWEST BY LATE TUESDAY. GFS IS MORE PRONOUNCED WITH UPPER RIDGING
BEFORE A STRONGER MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.

BRB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS BUT EACH AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO AT OR BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR
AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA. A SHORT DURATION OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SEEMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND STRONGEST 20 FOOT WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE MISALIGNED. BETTER POTENTIAL MAY EXIST ON SATURDAY
WHEN DEEPER MIXING MAY OCCUR.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KAMA 261048 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
448 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
GOOD FLYING WEATHER EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.  GENERALLY CLEAR
SKY WITH A SMALL AMOUNT OF CIRRUS IS FORECAST.  NORTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KT MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST TO ABOVE 25 KT THIS
MORNING.  SURFACE WINDS DECREASE NOTABLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH DIRECTION BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY EARLY EVENING.  LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...TRENDING TO LIGHT SOUTHWEST BY 12Z
THURSDAY.  NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.  VFR FORECAST
CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. SOME
CHALLENGES EXIST FOR THIS FORECAST INCLUDING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY LATE WEEK...POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS...AND TIMING OF A COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

A WEAK FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE REGION BY SUNRISE BRINGING
A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING
THE DAY AND GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY TOMORROW NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH
CONSIDERABLE HEIGHT RISES. LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXPAND AND
STRENGTHEN AS MEAN FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES. ITS ORIENTATION WILL PLACE THE PANHANDLES IN AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE NOVEMBER. NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY ON SUNDAY AND WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION. MODEL TRENDS IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF
THIS SHORTWAVE HAVE RESULTED IN A LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE THAN WAS
PREVIOUSLY DEPICTED. ALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE NOW HAS THE FRONT
ENTERING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
PROGRESSING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. THIS HAS SIGNIFICANT
IMPLICATIONS FOR TEMPERATURES AND DECIDED TO INCREASE HIGHS ON
SUNDAY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE BLEND. EVEN IF MODELS ARE TOO SLOW
WITH THE FRONT...AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR
MASSES...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE ABLE TO
WARM SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE THE VALUES GIVEN BY THE BLEND WHICH HAS SOME
INFLUENCE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS/FORECASTS.

SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EMERGE IN MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK LEADING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR WARMING AFTER A SHORT
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH AFOREMENTIONED POST FRONTAL
AIR MASS. ECMWF HAS A SHORTWAVE MOVING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MIDWEST BY LATE TUESDAY. GFS IS MORE PRONOUNCED WITH UPPER RIDGING
BEFORE A STRONGER MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.

BRB

FIRE WEATHER...

A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS BUT EACH AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO AT OR BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR
AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA. A SHORT DURATION OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SEEMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND STRONGEST 20 FOOT WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE MISALIGNED. BETTER POTENTIAL MAY EXIST ON SATURDAY
WHEN DEEPER MIXING MAY OCCUR.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                52  31  66  39  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  51  27  66  36  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              51  30  70  35  74 /   5   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  53  33  67  38  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              53  29  68  35  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  53  30  66  38  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               55  31  64  38  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 51  28  68  32  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  52  29  68  34  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                54  30  67  36  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                52  29  63  37  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   51  30  66  39  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                56  30  60  36  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              57  33  62  37  71 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/17






000
FXUS64 KAMA 261048 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
448 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
GOOD FLYING WEATHER EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.  GENERALLY CLEAR
SKY WITH A SMALL AMOUNT OF CIRRUS IS FORECAST.  NORTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KT MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST TO ABOVE 25 KT THIS
MORNING.  SURFACE WINDS DECREASE NOTABLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH DIRECTION BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY EARLY EVENING.  LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...TRENDING TO LIGHT SOUTHWEST BY 12Z
THURSDAY.  NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.  VFR FORECAST
CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. SOME
CHALLENGES EXIST FOR THIS FORECAST INCLUDING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY LATE WEEK...POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS...AND TIMING OF A COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

A WEAK FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE REGION BY SUNRISE BRINGING
A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING
THE DAY AND GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY TOMORROW NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH
CONSIDERABLE HEIGHT RISES. LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXPAND AND
STRENGTHEN AS MEAN FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES. ITS ORIENTATION WILL PLACE THE PANHANDLES IN AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE NOVEMBER. NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY ON SUNDAY AND WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION. MODEL TRENDS IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF
THIS SHORTWAVE HAVE RESULTED IN A LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE THAN WAS
PREVIOUSLY DEPICTED. ALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE NOW HAS THE FRONT
ENTERING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
PROGRESSING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. THIS HAS SIGNIFICANT
IMPLICATIONS FOR TEMPERATURES AND DECIDED TO INCREASE HIGHS ON
SUNDAY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE BLEND. EVEN IF MODELS ARE TOO SLOW
WITH THE FRONT...AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR
MASSES...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE ABLE TO
WARM SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE THE VALUES GIVEN BY THE BLEND WHICH HAS SOME
INFLUENCE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS/FORECASTS.

SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EMERGE IN MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK LEADING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR WARMING AFTER A SHORT
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH AFOREMENTIONED POST FRONTAL
AIR MASS. ECMWF HAS A SHORTWAVE MOVING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MIDWEST BY LATE TUESDAY. GFS IS MORE PRONOUNCED WITH UPPER RIDGING
BEFORE A STRONGER MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.

BRB

FIRE WEATHER...

A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS BUT EACH AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO AT OR BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR
AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA. A SHORT DURATION OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SEEMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND STRONGEST 20 FOOT WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE MISALIGNED. BETTER POTENTIAL MAY EXIST ON SATURDAY
WHEN DEEPER MIXING MAY OCCUR.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                52  31  66  39  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  51  27  66  36  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              51  30  70  35  74 /   5   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  53  33  67  38  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              53  29  68  35  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  53  30  66  38  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               55  31  64  38  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 51  28  68  32  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  52  29  68  34  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                54  30  67  36  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                52  29  63  37  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   51  30  66  39  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                56  30  60  36  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              57  33  62  37  71 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/17







000
FXUS64 KAMA 261001
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
401 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. SOME
CHALLENGES EXIST FOR THIS FORECAST INCLUDING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY LATE WEEK...POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS...AND TIMING OF A COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

A WEAK FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE REGION BY SUNRISE BRINGING
A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING
THE DAY AND GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY TOMORROW NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH
CONSIDERABLE HEIGHT RISES. LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXPAND AND
STRENGTHEN AS MEAN FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES. ITS ORIENTATION WILL PLACE THE PANHANDLES IN AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE NOVEMBER. NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY ON SUNDAY AND WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION. MODEL TRENDS IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF
THIS SHORTWAVE HAVE RESULTED IN A LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE THAN WAS
PREVIOUSLY DEPICTED. ALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE NOW HAS THE FRONT
ENTERING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
PROGRESSING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. THIS HAS SIGNIFICANT
IMPLICATIONS FOR TEMPERATURES AND DECIDED TO INCREASE HIGHS ON
SUNDAY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE BLEND. EVEN IF MODELS ARE TOO SLOW
WITH THE FRONT...AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR
MASSES...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE ABLE TO
WARM SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE THE VALUES GIVEN BY THE BLEND WHICH HAS SOME
INFLUENCE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS/FORECASTS.

SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EMERGE IN MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK LEADING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR WARMING AFTER A SHORT
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH AFOREMENTIONED POST FRONTAL
AIR MASS. ECMWF HAS A SHORTWAVE MOVING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MIDWEST BY LATE TUESDAY. GFS IS MORE PRONOUNCED WITH UPPER RIDGING
BEFORE A STRONGER MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.

BRB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS BUT EACH AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO AT OR BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR
AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA. A SHORT DURATION OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SEEMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND STRONGEST 20 FOOT WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE MISALIGNED. BETTER POTENTIAL MAY EXIST ON SATURDAY
WHEN DEEPER MIXING MAY OCCUR.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                52  31  66  39  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  51  27  66  36  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              51  30  70  35  74 /   5   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  53  33  67  38  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              53  29  68  35  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  53  30  66  38  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               55  31  64  38  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 51  28  68  32  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  52  29  68  34  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                54  30  67  36  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                52  29  63  37  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   51  30  66  39  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                56  30  60  36  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              57  33  62  37  71 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/03







000
FXUS64 KAMA 261001
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
401 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. SOME
CHALLENGES EXIST FOR THIS FORECAST INCLUDING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY LATE WEEK...POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS...AND TIMING OF A COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

A WEAK FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE REGION BY SUNRISE BRINGING
A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING
THE DAY AND GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY TOMORROW NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH
CONSIDERABLE HEIGHT RISES. LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXPAND AND
STRENGTHEN AS MEAN FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES. ITS ORIENTATION WILL PLACE THE PANHANDLES IN AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE NOVEMBER. NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY ON SUNDAY AND WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION. MODEL TRENDS IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF
THIS SHORTWAVE HAVE RESULTED IN A LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE THAN WAS
PREVIOUSLY DEPICTED. ALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE NOW HAS THE FRONT
ENTERING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
PROGRESSING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. THIS HAS SIGNIFICANT
IMPLICATIONS FOR TEMPERATURES AND DECIDED TO INCREASE HIGHS ON
SUNDAY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE BLEND. EVEN IF MODELS ARE TOO SLOW
WITH THE FRONT...AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR
MASSES...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE ABLE TO
WARM SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE THE VALUES GIVEN BY THE BLEND WHICH HAS SOME
INFLUENCE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS/FORECASTS.

SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EMERGE IN MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK LEADING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR WARMING AFTER A SHORT
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH AFOREMENTIONED POST FRONTAL
AIR MASS. ECMWF HAS A SHORTWAVE MOVING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MIDWEST BY LATE TUESDAY. GFS IS MORE PRONOUNCED WITH UPPER RIDGING
BEFORE A STRONGER MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.

BRB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS BUT EACH AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO AT OR BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR
AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA. A SHORT DURATION OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SEEMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND STRONGEST 20 FOOT WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE MISALIGNED. BETTER POTENTIAL MAY EXIST ON SATURDAY
WHEN DEEPER MIXING MAY OCCUR.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                52  31  66  39  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  51  27  66  36  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              51  30  70  35  74 /   5   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  53  33  67  38  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              53  29  68  35  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  53  30  66  38  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               55  31  64  38  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 51  28  68  32  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  52  29  68  34  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                54  30  67  36  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                52  29  63  37  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   51  30  66  39  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                56  30  60  36  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              57  33  62  37  71 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/03






000
FXUS64 KAMA 261001
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
401 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. SOME
CHALLENGES EXIST FOR THIS FORECAST INCLUDING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY LATE WEEK...POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS...AND TIMING OF A COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

A WEAK FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE REGION BY SUNRISE BRINGING
A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING
THE DAY AND GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY TOMORROW NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH
CONSIDERABLE HEIGHT RISES. LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXPAND AND
STRENGTHEN AS MEAN FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES. ITS ORIENTATION WILL PLACE THE PANHANDLES IN AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE NOVEMBER. NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY ON SUNDAY AND WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION. MODEL TRENDS IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF
THIS SHORTWAVE HAVE RESULTED IN A LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE THAN WAS
PREVIOUSLY DEPICTED. ALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE NOW HAS THE FRONT
ENTERING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
PROGRESSING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. THIS HAS SIGNIFICANT
IMPLICATIONS FOR TEMPERATURES AND DECIDED TO INCREASE HIGHS ON
SUNDAY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE BLEND. EVEN IF MODELS ARE TOO SLOW
WITH THE FRONT...AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR
MASSES...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE ABLE TO
WARM SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE THE VALUES GIVEN BY THE BLEND WHICH HAS SOME
INFLUENCE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS/FORECASTS.

SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EMERGE IN MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK LEADING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR WARMING AFTER A SHORT
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH AFOREMENTIONED POST FRONTAL
AIR MASS. ECMWF HAS A SHORTWAVE MOVING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MIDWEST BY LATE TUESDAY. GFS IS MORE PRONOUNCED WITH UPPER RIDGING
BEFORE A STRONGER MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.

BRB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS BUT EACH AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO AT OR BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR
AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA. A SHORT DURATION OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SEEMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND STRONGEST 20 FOOT WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE MISALIGNED. BETTER POTENTIAL MAY EXIST ON SATURDAY
WHEN DEEPER MIXING MAY OCCUR.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                52  31  66  39  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  51  27  66  36  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              51  30  70  35  74 /   5   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  53  33  67  38  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              53  29  68  35  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  53  30  66  38  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               55  31  64  38  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 51  28  68  32  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  52  29  68  34  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                54  30  67  36  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                52  29  63  37  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   51  30  66  39  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                56  30  60  36  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              57  33  62  37  71 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/03







000
FXUS64 KAMA 261001
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
401 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. SOME
CHALLENGES EXIST FOR THIS FORECAST INCLUDING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY LATE WEEK...POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS...AND TIMING OF A COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

A WEAK FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE REGION BY SUNRISE BRINGING
A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING
THE DAY AND GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY TOMORROW NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH
CONSIDERABLE HEIGHT RISES. LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXPAND AND
STRENGTHEN AS MEAN FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES. ITS ORIENTATION WILL PLACE THE PANHANDLES IN AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE NOVEMBER. NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY ON SUNDAY AND WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION. MODEL TRENDS IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF
THIS SHORTWAVE HAVE RESULTED IN A LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE THAN WAS
PREVIOUSLY DEPICTED. ALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE NOW HAS THE FRONT
ENTERING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
PROGRESSING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. THIS HAS SIGNIFICANT
IMPLICATIONS FOR TEMPERATURES AND DECIDED TO INCREASE HIGHS ON
SUNDAY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE BLEND. EVEN IF MODELS ARE TOO SLOW
WITH THE FRONT...AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR
MASSES...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE ABLE TO
WARM SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE THE VALUES GIVEN BY THE BLEND WHICH HAS SOME
INFLUENCE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS/FORECASTS.

SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EMERGE IN MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK LEADING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR WARMING AFTER A SHORT
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH AFOREMENTIONED POST FRONTAL
AIR MASS. ECMWF HAS A SHORTWAVE MOVING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MIDWEST BY LATE TUESDAY. GFS IS MORE PRONOUNCED WITH UPPER RIDGING
BEFORE A STRONGER MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.

BRB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS BUT EACH AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO AT OR BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR
AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA. A SHORT DURATION OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SEEMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND STRONGEST 20 FOOT WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE MISALIGNED. BETTER POTENTIAL MAY EXIST ON SATURDAY
WHEN DEEPER MIXING MAY OCCUR.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                52  31  66  39  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  51  27  66  36  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              51  30  70  35  74 /   5   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  53  33  67  38  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              53  29  68  35  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  53  30  66  38  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               55  31  64  38  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 51  28  68  32  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  52  29  68  34  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                54  30  67  36  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                52  29  63  37  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   51  30  66  39  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                56  30  60  36  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              57  33  62  37  71 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/03






000
FXUS64 KAMA 260533
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1133 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

SIMPSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

AVIATION...00Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND A WEAK FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SIMPSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES LATER TONIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY SHIFTING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH WITH ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
FLOW WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH MAINTAINS A DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE
ZONAL FLOW BY LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES DEAMPLIFIES AND BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND
WEST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT CONTINUED DRY.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
20 FOOT WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON RIGHT AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT FLIRTING WITH
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AND WITH FUELS RECOVERING FROM
RECENT PRECIPITATION...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NOT
EXPECTED OR VERY SHORT-LIVED THIS AFTERNOON. ERC VALUES THIS AFTERNOON
REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. WILL OPT TO NOT ISSUE A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT AT THIS POINT. WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM AND CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH SATURDAY...IT APPEARS
POSSIBLE THAT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN
ON THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH SATURDAY TO NEAR 15 TO 20 MPH OR POSSIBLY
HIGHER WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES NEAR 15 TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES EACH OF THOSE THREE DAYS...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE JUST TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

09/16






000
FXUS64 KAMA 260533
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1133 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

SIMPSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

AVIATION...00Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND A WEAK FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SIMPSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES LATER TONIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY SHIFTING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH WITH ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
FLOW WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH MAINTAINS A DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE
ZONAL FLOW BY LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES DEAMPLIFIES AND BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND
WEST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT CONTINUED DRY.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
20 FOOT WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON RIGHT AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT FLIRTING WITH
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AND WITH FUELS RECOVERING FROM
RECENT PRECIPITATION...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NOT
EXPECTED OR VERY SHORT-LIVED THIS AFTERNOON. ERC VALUES THIS AFTERNOON
REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. WILL OPT TO NOT ISSUE A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT AT THIS POINT. WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM AND CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH SATURDAY...IT APPEARS
POSSIBLE THAT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN
ON THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH SATURDAY TO NEAR 15 TO 20 MPH OR POSSIBLY
HIGHER WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES NEAR 15 TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES EACH OF THOSE THREE DAYS...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE JUST TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

09/16







000
FXUS64 KAMA 252344
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
544 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND A WEAK FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SIMPSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES LATER TONIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY SHIFTING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH WITH ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
FLOW WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH MAINTAINS A DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE
ZONAL FLOW BY LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES DEAMPLIFIES AND BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND
WEST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT CONTINUED DRY.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
20 FOOT WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON RIGHT AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT FLIRTING WITH
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AND WITH FUELS RECOVERING FROM
RECENT PRECIPITATION...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NOT
EXPECTED OR VERY SHORT-LIVED THIS AFTERNOON. ERC VALUES THIS AFTERNOON
REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. WILL OPT TO NOT ISSUE A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT AT THIS POINT. WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM AND CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH SATURDAY...IT APPEARS
POSSIBLE THAT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN
ON THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH SATURDAY TO NEAR 15 TO 20 MPH OR POSSIBLY
HIGHER WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES NEAR 15 TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES EACH OF THOSE THREE DAYS...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE JUST TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

09/16







000
FXUS64 KAMA 252344
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
544 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND A WEAK FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SIMPSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES LATER TONIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY SHIFTING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH WITH ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
FLOW WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH MAINTAINS A DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE
ZONAL FLOW BY LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES DEAMPLIFIES AND BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND
WEST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT CONTINUED DRY.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
20 FOOT WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON RIGHT AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT FLIRTING WITH
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AND WITH FUELS RECOVERING FROM
RECENT PRECIPITATION...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NOT
EXPECTED OR VERY SHORT-LIVED THIS AFTERNOON. ERC VALUES THIS AFTERNOON
REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. WILL OPT TO NOT ISSUE A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT AT THIS POINT. WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM AND CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH SATURDAY...IT APPEARS
POSSIBLE THAT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN
ON THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH SATURDAY TO NEAR 15 TO 20 MPH OR POSSIBLY
HIGHER WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES NEAR 15 TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES EACH OF THOSE THREE DAYS...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE JUST TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

09/16






000
FXUS64 KAMA 252049
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
249 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES LATER TONIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY SHIFTING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH WITH ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
FLOW WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH MAINTAINS A DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE
ZONAL FLOW BY LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES DEAMPLIFIES AND BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND
WEST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT CONTINUED DRY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
20 FOOT WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON RIGHT AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT FLIRTING WITH
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AND WITH FUELS RECOVERING FROM
RECENT PRECIPITATION...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NOT
EXPECTED OR VERY SHORT-LIVED THIS AFTERNOON. ERC VALUES THIS AFTERNOON
REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. WILL OPT TO NOT ISSUE A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT AT THIS POINT. WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM AND CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH SATURDAY...IT APPEARS
POSSIBLE THAT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN
ON THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH SATURDAY TO NEAR 15 TO 20 MPH OR POSSIBLY
HIGHER WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES NEAR 15 TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES EACH OF THOSE THREE DAYS...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE JUST TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                27  53  32  64  37 /   0   0   0   5   5
BEAVER OK                  26  52  28  64  34 /   0   0   0   5   5
BOISE CITY OK              26  52  31  68  34 /   0   0   0   5   5
BORGER TX                  29  54  33  66  38 /   0   0   0   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              27  54  31  67  34 /   0   0   0   5   5
CANYON TX                  28  53  31  64  36 /   0   0   0   5   5
CLARENDON TX               31  56  32  63  37 /   0   0   0   5   5
DALHART TX                 24  52  29  66  32 /   0   0   0   5   5
GUYMON OK                  26  52  30  67  34 /   0   0   0   5   5
HEREFORD TX                28  55  30  65  35 /   0   0   0   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                31  54  30  63  36 /   0   0   0   5   5
PAMPA TX                   28  52  32  64  37 /   0   0   0   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                31  56  32  61  35 /   0   0   0   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              33  58  34  62  36 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

01/11







000
FXUS64 KAMA 252049
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
249 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES LATER TONIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY SHIFTING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH WITH ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
FLOW WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH MAINTAINS A DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE
ZONAL FLOW BY LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES DEAMPLIFIES AND BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND
WEST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT CONTINUED DRY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
20 FOOT WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON RIGHT AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT FLIRTING WITH
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AND WITH FUELS RECOVERING FROM
RECENT PRECIPITATION...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NOT
EXPECTED OR VERY SHORT-LIVED THIS AFTERNOON. ERC VALUES THIS AFTERNOON
REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. WILL OPT TO NOT ISSUE A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT AT THIS POINT. WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM AND CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH SATURDAY...IT APPEARS
POSSIBLE THAT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN
ON THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH SATURDAY TO NEAR 15 TO 20 MPH OR POSSIBLY
HIGHER WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES NEAR 15 TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES EACH OF THOSE THREE DAYS...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE JUST TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                27  53  32  64  37 /   0   0   0   5   5
BEAVER OK                  26  52  28  64  34 /   0   0   0   5   5
BOISE CITY OK              26  52  31  68  34 /   0   0   0   5   5
BORGER TX                  29  54  33  66  38 /   0   0   0   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              27  54  31  67  34 /   0   0   0   5   5
CANYON TX                  28  53  31  64  36 /   0   0   0   5   5
CLARENDON TX               31  56  32  63  37 /   0   0   0   5   5
DALHART TX                 24  52  29  66  32 /   0   0   0   5   5
GUYMON OK                  26  52  30  67  34 /   0   0   0   5   5
HEREFORD TX                28  55  30  65  35 /   0   0   0   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                31  54  30  63  36 /   0   0   0   5   5
PAMPA TX                   28  52  32  64  37 /   0   0   0   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                31  56  32  61  35 /   0   0   0   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              33  58  34  62  36 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

01/11






000
FXUS64 KAMA 251726 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1126 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. OTHERWISE...MAIN AVIATION THREAT TODAY WILL BE WIND.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH. WINDS AT KAMA...KDHT AND KGUY WILL BE AROUND 20 KNOTS
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL TAPER OFF
QUICKLY AROUND 00Z TO LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. REMOVED THE THREAT OF LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR AFTER 00Z AS MODEL DATA INDICATES WINDS NOT AS
STRONG OFF THE SURFACE...NOW MORE ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS.
THERE WILL BE A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN
10Z AND 12Z.

GARCIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

AVIATION...
GENERALLY CLEAR SKY EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SOME CIRRUS
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG JET STREAK IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  LIGHT
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TREND TO SOUTHWEST BY
NOON.  SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST TO AROUND 30 KT THIS AFTERNOON
AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.  AREAS OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
EXPECTED AROUND KAMA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z WEDNESDAY AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS
DECOUPLE.  LIGHT SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS THIS EVENING WILL TREND TO
LIGHT NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.  NO EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS FORESEEN.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AND QUESTIONS SURROUNDING
THE NEXT NOTABLE COLD FRONT LATE THIS WEEKEND HIGHLIGHT THIS FORECAST.

A PROGRESSIVE AND POSITIVELY TILTED UA SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS PASSED
EASTWARD OVER WEST TEXAS WITH NO FANFARE OVERNIGHT. IN WAKE OF THIS
FEATURE...A GENERALLY ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED AND DRY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS SUCH...LEE TROUGHING WILL COMMENCE TODAY
WITH A SUFFICIENT MSLP GRADIENT TO SUPPORT BREEZY 15 TO 25 MPH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL BE DECREASED A
BIT IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH...LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DOWNSLOPE WILL HELP TO PROMOTE SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES TO THOSE EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY.

A WEAK FRONT IS PROGGED TO USHER IN A MIXTURE OF CANADIAN AND PACIFIC
AIR WEDNESDAY. WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES...THE INFLUX OF
THIS MILD AIRMASS WILL ACTUALLY SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT
WARMING TREND. BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ALL NWP GUIDANCE NOW SUPPORTS
RETURN SOUTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND 70 DEGREES...
CLIMBING TO SOME 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS APPEAR IN BETTER AGREEMENT DEPICTING THE NEXT
MEANINGFUL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH ORIGINATING OVER
THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES...THE CORE OF THIS AIRMASS IS PROGGED AT
1030 MB SURFACE HIGH AS IT EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS...COMPARED TO
1045 MB WITH THE PREVIOUS ARCTIC INTRUSION. BOTH THE LESS AMPLIFIED
FLOW ALOFT AND THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS AIRMASS ARGUES FOR A MORE
PERIPHERAL EFFECT...WHICH STILL WARRANTS A COOL DOWN OF NEARLY 20
DEGREE BETWEEN SATURDAY AND MONDAY.

LINDLEY

FIRE WEATHER...
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE
OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. ALTHOUGH THESE CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH
ELEVATED THRESHOLDS...NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING
EFFECTS OF RECENT COLD/MOISTURE EVENTS WILL HELP TO LIMIT SIGNIFICANT
FIRE POTENTIAL. IT IS NOTABLE THAT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARM/DRYING
IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT NO INSTANCES OF CRITICAL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

LINDLEY

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 251726 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1126 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. OTHERWISE...MAIN AVIATION THREAT TODAY WILL BE WIND.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH. WINDS AT KAMA...KDHT AND KGUY WILL BE AROUND 20 KNOTS
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL TAPER OFF
QUICKLY AROUND 00Z TO LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. REMOVED THE THREAT OF LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR AFTER 00Z AS MODEL DATA INDICATES WINDS NOT AS
STRONG OFF THE SURFACE...NOW MORE ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS.
THERE WILL BE A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN
10Z AND 12Z.

GARCIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

AVIATION...
GENERALLY CLEAR SKY EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SOME CIRRUS
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG JET STREAK IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  LIGHT
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TREND TO SOUTHWEST BY
NOON.  SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST TO AROUND 30 KT THIS AFTERNOON
AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.  AREAS OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
EXPECTED AROUND KAMA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z WEDNESDAY AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS
DECOUPLE.  LIGHT SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS THIS EVENING WILL TREND TO
LIGHT NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.  NO EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS FORESEEN.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AND QUESTIONS SURROUNDING
THE NEXT NOTABLE COLD FRONT LATE THIS WEEKEND HIGHLIGHT THIS FORECAST.

A PROGRESSIVE AND POSITIVELY TILTED UA SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS PASSED
EASTWARD OVER WEST TEXAS WITH NO FANFARE OVERNIGHT. IN WAKE OF THIS
FEATURE...A GENERALLY ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED AND DRY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS SUCH...LEE TROUGHING WILL COMMENCE TODAY
WITH A SUFFICIENT MSLP GRADIENT TO SUPPORT BREEZY 15 TO 25 MPH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL BE DECREASED A
BIT IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH...LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DOWNSLOPE WILL HELP TO PROMOTE SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES TO THOSE EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY.

A WEAK FRONT IS PROGGED TO USHER IN A MIXTURE OF CANADIAN AND PACIFIC
AIR WEDNESDAY. WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES...THE INFLUX OF
THIS MILD AIRMASS WILL ACTUALLY SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT
WARMING TREND. BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ALL NWP GUIDANCE NOW SUPPORTS
RETURN SOUTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND 70 DEGREES...
CLIMBING TO SOME 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS APPEAR IN BETTER AGREEMENT DEPICTING THE NEXT
MEANINGFUL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH ORIGINATING OVER
THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES...THE CORE OF THIS AIRMASS IS PROGGED AT
1030 MB SURFACE HIGH AS IT EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS...COMPARED TO
1045 MB WITH THE PREVIOUS ARCTIC INTRUSION. BOTH THE LESS AMPLIFIED
FLOW ALOFT AND THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS AIRMASS ARGUES FOR A MORE
PERIPHERAL EFFECT...WHICH STILL WARRANTS A COOL DOWN OF NEARLY 20
DEGREE BETWEEN SATURDAY AND MONDAY.

LINDLEY

FIRE WEATHER...
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE
OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. ALTHOUGH THESE CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH
ELEVATED THRESHOLDS...NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING
EFFECTS OF RECENT COLD/MOISTURE EVENTS WILL HELP TO LIMIT SIGNIFICANT
FIRE POTENTIAL. IT IS NOTABLE THAT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARM/DRYING
IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT NO INSTANCES OF CRITICAL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

LINDLEY

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 251133 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
533 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY CLEAR SKY EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SOME CIRRUS
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG JET STREAK IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  LIGHT
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TREND TO SOUTHWEST BY
NOON.  SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST TO AROUND 30 KT THIS AFTERNOON
AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.  AREAS OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
EXPECTED AROUND KAMA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z WEDNESDAY AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS
DECOUPLE.  LIGHT SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS THIS EVENING WILL TREND TO
LIGHT NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.  NO EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS FORESEEN.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AND QUESTIONS SURROUNDING
THE NEXT NOTABLE COLD FRONT LATE THIS WEEKEND HIGHLIGHT THIS FORECAST.

A PROGRESSIVE AND POSITIVELY TILTED UA SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS PASSED
EASTWARD OVER WEST TEXAS WITH NO FANFARE OVERNIGHT. IN WAKE OF THIS
FEATURE...A GENERALLY ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED AND DRY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS SUCH...LEE TROUGHING WILL COMMENCE TODAY
WITH A SUFFICIENT MSLP GRADIENT TO SUPPORT BREEZY 15 TO 25 MPH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL BE DECREASED A
BIT IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH...LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DOWNSLOPE WILL HELP TO PROMOTE SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES TO THOSE EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY.

A WEAK FRONT IS PROGGED TO USHER IN A MIXTURE OF CANADIAN AND PACIFIC
AIR WEDNESDAY. WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES...THE INFLUX OF
THIS MILD AIRMASS WILL ACTUALLY SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT
WARMING TREND. BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ALL NWP GUIDANCE NOW SUPPORTS
RETURN SOUTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND 70 DEGREES...
CLIMBING TO SOME 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS APPEAR IN BETTER AGREEMENT DEPICTING THE NEXT
MEANINGFUL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH ORIGINATING OVER
THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES...THE CORE OF THIS AIRMASS IS PROGGED AT
1030 MB SURFACE HIGH AS IT EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS...COMPARED TO
1045 MB WITH THE PREVIOUS ARCTIC INTRUSION. BOTH THE LESS AMPLIFIED
FLOW ALOFT AND THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS AIRMASS ARGUES FOR A MORE
PERIPHERAL EFFECT...WHICH STILL WARRANTS A COOL DOWN OF NEARLY 20
DEGREE BETWEEN SATURDAY AND MONDAY.

LINDLEY

FIRE WEATHER...
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE
OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. ALTHOUGH THESE CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH
ELEVATED THRESHOLDS...NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING
EFFECTS OF RECENT COLD/MOISTURE EVENTS WILL HELP TO LIMIT SIGNIFICANT
FIRE POTENTIAL. IT IS NOTABLE THAT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARM/DRYING
IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT NO INSTANCES OF CRITICAL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

LINDLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                52  30  53  31  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  54  27  52  26  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              53  26  52  29  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  55  31  54  33  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              54  28  54  29  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  53  30  54  30  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               54  33  56  31  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 52  26  52  29  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  54  28  52  29  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                53  29  55  29  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                53  31  53  30  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   51  29  52  31  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                54  33  56  31  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              55  35  58  34  63 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/10






000
FXUS64 KAMA 251133 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
533 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY CLEAR SKY EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SOME CIRRUS
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG JET STREAK IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  LIGHT
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TREND TO SOUTHWEST BY
NOON.  SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST TO AROUND 30 KT THIS AFTERNOON
AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.  AREAS OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
EXPECTED AROUND KAMA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z WEDNESDAY AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS
DECOUPLE.  LIGHT SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS THIS EVENING WILL TREND TO
LIGHT NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.  NO EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS FORESEEN.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AND QUESTIONS SURROUNDING
THE NEXT NOTABLE COLD FRONT LATE THIS WEEKEND HIGHLIGHT THIS FORECAST.

A PROGRESSIVE AND POSITIVELY TILTED UA SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS PASSED
EASTWARD OVER WEST TEXAS WITH NO FANFARE OVERNIGHT. IN WAKE OF THIS
FEATURE...A GENERALLY ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED AND DRY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS SUCH...LEE TROUGHING WILL COMMENCE TODAY
WITH A SUFFICIENT MSLP GRADIENT TO SUPPORT BREEZY 15 TO 25 MPH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL BE DECREASED A
BIT IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH...LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DOWNSLOPE WILL HELP TO PROMOTE SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES TO THOSE EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY.

A WEAK FRONT IS PROGGED TO USHER IN A MIXTURE OF CANADIAN AND PACIFIC
AIR WEDNESDAY. WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES...THE INFLUX OF
THIS MILD AIRMASS WILL ACTUALLY SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT
WARMING TREND. BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ALL NWP GUIDANCE NOW SUPPORTS
RETURN SOUTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND 70 DEGREES...
CLIMBING TO SOME 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS APPEAR IN BETTER AGREEMENT DEPICTING THE NEXT
MEANINGFUL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH ORIGINATING OVER
THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES...THE CORE OF THIS AIRMASS IS PROGGED AT
1030 MB SURFACE HIGH AS IT EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS...COMPARED TO
1045 MB WITH THE PREVIOUS ARCTIC INTRUSION. BOTH THE LESS AMPLIFIED
FLOW ALOFT AND THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS AIRMASS ARGUES FOR A MORE
PERIPHERAL EFFECT...WHICH STILL WARRANTS A COOL DOWN OF NEARLY 20
DEGREE BETWEEN SATURDAY AND MONDAY.

LINDLEY

FIRE WEATHER...
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE
OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. ALTHOUGH THESE CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH
ELEVATED THRESHOLDS...NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING
EFFECTS OF RECENT COLD/MOISTURE EVENTS WILL HELP TO LIMIT SIGNIFICANT
FIRE POTENTIAL. IT IS NOTABLE THAT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARM/DRYING
IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT NO INSTANCES OF CRITICAL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

LINDLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                52  30  53  31  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  54  27  52  26  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              53  26  52  29  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  55  31  54  33  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              54  28  54  29  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  53  30  54  30  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               54  33  56  31  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 52  26  52  29  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  54  28  52  29  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                53  29  55  29  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                53  31  53  30  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   51  29  52  31  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                54  33  56  31  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              55  35  58  34  63 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/10







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