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000
FXUS64 KAMA 012309 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
509 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE IFR OR LIFR RANGE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE INTO THE MVFR RANGE BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE NEXT TO LAST IN A SERIES OF STORMS SYSTEMS SLATED TO IMPACT THE
TX AND OK PNHDLS IS A CLOSED LOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST. OUR FCST AREA
WILL BE IN SW FLOW ALOFT...WHICH SUGGESTS CONTINUED EROSION OF THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE REGION THE PAST FEW DAYS.
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. LATEST MODEL
RUNS HINT THAT OUR FCST AREA WILL BE GENERALLY DRY SLOTTED FROM THIS
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WITH ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS LIKELY THE RESULT
OF AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. HAVE INCORPORATED
THESE IDEAS INTO THE GRIDS.

THE LAST IN THE SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL BE A FAST MOVING UPPER
LEVEL TROF AND ITS ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE
PROGGED TO IMPACT THE TX AND OK PNHDLS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF LIGHT SNOW
WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER ELEMENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FINAL STORM
SYSTEM IN THE SERIES. A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES IS THEN ANTICIPATED FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/18







000
FXUS64 KAMA 012309 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
509 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE IFR OR LIFR RANGE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE INTO THE MVFR RANGE BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE NEXT TO LAST IN A SERIES OF STORMS SYSTEMS SLATED TO IMPACT THE
TX AND OK PNHDLS IS A CLOSED LOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST. OUR FCST AREA
WILL BE IN SW FLOW ALOFT...WHICH SUGGESTS CONTINUED EROSION OF THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE REGION THE PAST FEW DAYS.
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. LATEST MODEL
RUNS HINT THAT OUR FCST AREA WILL BE GENERALLY DRY SLOTTED FROM THIS
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WITH ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS LIKELY THE RESULT
OF AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. HAVE INCORPORATED
THESE IDEAS INTO THE GRIDS.

THE LAST IN THE SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL BE A FAST MOVING UPPER
LEVEL TROF AND ITS ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE
PROGGED TO IMPACT THE TX AND OK PNHDLS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF LIGHT SNOW
WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER ELEMENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FINAL STORM
SYSTEM IN THE SERIES. A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES IS THEN ANTICIPATED FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/18






000
FXUS64 KAMA 012217
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
417 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE NEXT TO LAST IN A SERIES OF STORMS SYSTEMS SLATED TO IMPACT THE
TX AND OK PNHDLS IS A CLOSED LOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST. OUR FCST AREA
WILL BE IN SW FLOW ALOFT...WHICH SUGGESTS CONTINUED EROSION OF THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE REGION THE PAST FEW DAYS.
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. LATEST MODEL
RUNS HINT THAT OUR FCST AREA WILL BE GENERALLY DRY SLOTTED FROM THIS
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WITH ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS LIKELY THE RESULT
OF AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. HAVE INCORPORATED
THESE IDEAS INTO THE GRIDS.

THE LAST IN THE SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL BE A FAST MOVING UPPER
LEVEL TROF AND ITS ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE
PROGGED TO IMPACT THE TX AND OK PNHDLS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF LIGHT SNOW
WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER ELEMENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FINAL STORM
SYSTEM IN THE SERIES. A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES IS THEN ANTICIPATED FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

ANDRADE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                21  42  38  61  18 /  10  10   5   5  10
BEAVER OK                  19  42  36  48  16 /  10  10   5   5  20
BOISE CITY OK              18  45  34  46  13 /  10  10   5   5  20
BORGER TX                  22  42  41  56  18 /  10  10   5   5  10
BOYS RANCH TX              21  44  36  57  17 /  10  10   5   5  10
CANYON TX                  21  42  38  62  19 /  10  10   5   5  10
CLARENDON TX               22  41  37  64  21 /  10  10  10   5  10
DALHART TX                 20  45  34  52  15 /  10  10   5   5  20
GUYMON OK                  19  45  35  50  15 /  10  10   5   5  20
HEREFORD TX                22  42  37  61  21 /  10  10   5   5  10
LIPSCOMB TX                20  41  37  51  18 /  10  10   5   5  10
PAMPA TX                   20  42  37  55  18 /  10  10   5   5  10
SHAMROCK TX                23  40  37  61  23 /  10  10  10   5  10
WELLINGTON TX              25  40  37  66  25 /  10  10  10   5  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 012217
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
417 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE NEXT TO LAST IN A SERIES OF STORMS SYSTEMS SLATED TO IMPACT THE
TX AND OK PNHDLS IS A CLOSED LOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST. OUR FCST AREA
WILL BE IN SW FLOW ALOFT...WHICH SUGGESTS CONTINUED EROSION OF THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE REGION THE PAST FEW DAYS.
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. LATEST MODEL
RUNS HINT THAT OUR FCST AREA WILL BE GENERALLY DRY SLOTTED FROM THIS
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WITH ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS LIKELY THE RESULT
OF AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. HAVE INCORPORATED
THESE IDEAS INTO THE GRIDS.

THE LAST IN THE SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL BE A FAST MOVING UPPER
LEVEL TROF AND ITS ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE
PROGGED TO IMPACT THE TX AND OK PNHDLS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF LIGHT SNOW
WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER ELEMENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FINAL STORM
SYSTEM IN THE SERIES. A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES IS THEN ANTICIPATED FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

ANDRADE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                21  42  38  61  18 /  10  10   5   5  10
BEAVER OK                  19  42  36  48  16 /  10  10   5   5  20
BOISE CITY OK              18  45  34  46  13 /  10  10   5   5  20
BORGER TX                  22  42  41  56  18 /  10  10   5   5  10
BOYS RANCH TX              21  44  36  57  17 /  10  10   5   5  10
CANYON TX                  21  42  38  62  19 /  10  10   5   5  10
CLARENDON TX               22  41  37  64  21 /  10  10  10   5  10
DALHART TX                 20  45  34  52  15 /  10  10   5   5  20
GUYMON OK                  19  45  35  50  15 /  10  10   5   5  20
HEREFORD TX                22  42  37  61  21 /  10  10   5   5  10
LIPSCOMB TX                20  41  37  51  18 /  10  10   5   5  10
PAMPA TX                   20  42  37  55  18 /  10  10   5   5  10
SHAMROCK TX                23  40  37  61  23 /  10  10  10   5  10
WELLINGTON TX              25  40  37  66  25 /  10  10  10   5  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 012217
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
417 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE NEXT TO LAST IN A SERIES OF STORMS SYSTEMS SLATED TO IMPACT THE
TX AND OK PNHDLS IS A CLOSED LOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST. OUR FCST AREA
WILL BE IN SW FLOW ALOFT...WHICH SUGGESTS CONTINUED EROSION OF THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE REGION THE PAST FEW DAYS.
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. LATEST MODEL
RUNS HINT THAT OUR FCST AREA WILL BE GENERALLY DRY SLOTTED FROM THIS
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WITH ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS LIKELY THE RESULT
OF AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. HAVE INCORPORATED
THESE IDEAS INTO THE GRIDS.

THE LAST IN THE SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL BE A FAST MOVING UPPER
LEVEL TROF AND ITS ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE
PROGGED TO IMPACT THE TX AND OK PNHDLS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF LIGHT SNOW
WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER ELEMENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FINAL STORM
SYSTEM IN THE SERIES. A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES IS THEN ANTICIPATED FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

ANDRADE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                21  42  38  61  18 /  10  10   5   5  10
BEAVER OK                  19  42  36  48  16 /  10  10   5   5  20
BOISE CITY OK              18  45  34  46  13 /  10  10   5   5  20
BORGER TX                  22  42  41  56  18 /  10  10   5   5  10
BOYS RANCH TX              21  44  36  57  17 /  10  10   5   5  10
CANYON TX                  21  42  38  62  19 /  10  10   5   5  10
CLARENDON TX               22  41  37  64  21 /  10  10  10   5  10
DALHART TX                 20  45  34  52  15 /  10  10   5   5  20
GUYMON OK                  19  45  35  50  15 /  10  10   5   5  20
HEREFORD TX                22  42  37  61  21 /  10  10   5   5  10
LIPSCOMB TX                20  41  37  51  18 /  10  10   5   5  10
PAMPA TX                   20  42  37  55  18 /  10  10   5   5  10
SHAMROCK TX                23  40  37  61  23 /  10  10  10   5  10
WELLINGTON TX              25  40  37  66  25 /  10  10  10   5  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 012217
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
417 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE NEXT TO LAST IN A SERIES OF STORMS SYSTEMS SLATED TO IMPACT THE
TX AND OK PNHDLS IS A CLOSED LOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST. OUR FCST AREA
WILL BE IN SW FLOW ALOFT...WHICH SUGGESTS CONTINUED EROSION OF THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE REGION THE PAST FEW DAYS.
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. LATEST MODEL
RUNS HINT THAT OUR FCST AREA WILL BE GENERALLY DRY SLOTTED FROM THIS
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WITH ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS LIKELY THE RESULT
OF AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. HAVE INCORPORATED
THESE IDEAS INTO THE GRIDS.

THE LAST IN THE SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL BE A FAST MOVING UPPER
LEVEL TROF AND ITS ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE
PROGGED TO IMPACT THE TX AND OK PNHDLS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF LIGHT SNOW
WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER ELEMENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FINAL STORM
SYSTEM IN THE SERIES. A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES IS THEN ANTICIPATED FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

ANDRADE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                21  42  38  61  18 /  10  10   5   5  10
BEAVER OK                  19  42  36  48  16 /  10  10   5   5  20
BOISE CITY OK              18  45  34  46  13 /  10  10   5   5  20
BORGER TX                  22  42  41  56  18 /  10  10   5   5  10
BOYS RANCH TX              21  44  36  57  17 /  10  10   5   5  10
CANYON TX                  21  42  38  62  19 /  10  10   5   5  10
CLARENDON TX               22  41  37  64  21 /  10  10  10   5  10
DALHART TX                 20  45  34  52  15 /  10  10   5   5  20
GUYMON OK                  19  45  35  50  15 /  10  10   5   5  20
HEREFORD TX                22  42  37  61  21 /  10  10   5   5  10
LIPSCOMB TX                20  41  37  51  18 /  10  10   5   5  10
PAMPA TX                   20  42  37  55  18 /  10  10   5   5  10
SHAMROCK TX                23  40  37  61  23 /  10  10  10   5  10
WELLINGTON TX              25  40  37  66  25 /  10  10  10   5  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 011744
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1144 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS...LIFR CONDITIONS AT KAMA SHOULD IMPROVE TO IFR WITHIN AN
HOUR OR TWO AS CEILINGS GRADUALLY INCREASE. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING KGUY. CEILINGS AT KGUY SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LOWER TO IFR
AGAIN THIS EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND REMNANT
SNOW COVER OVERNIGHT WILL MAKE FOR IDEAL FOG/FREEZING FOG CONDITIONS
ONCE AGAIN. THERE APPEARS TO BE A RELATIVELY HIGH PROBABILITY OF LIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY AT ALL THREE SITES LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF LIFR CATEGORY SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. GREATEST
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS SHOULD BE AT KAMA AND KDHT. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE AND MAKE
NECESSARY AMENDMENTS BASED ON TRENDS.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD SHALLOW AIRMASS RETAINS ITS HOLD ON THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES THIS MORNING.  AREAS OF FREEZING FOG EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM.  SOME SLOW MODIFICATION OF THIS AIRMASS IS
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON.

ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER TONIGHT.  WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL ACT TO KEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.  WITH NO STRONG
DYNAMICS EXPECTED TONIGHT...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION...AND HAVE CALLED FOR AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.

SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY HAVE BEEN RETAINED.  WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND THE PASSAGE OF A QUICK-MOVING VORTICITY MAXIMUM MAY
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE
MORNING AND LIGHT RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

HAVE REMOVED MONDAY NIGHT POPS DUE TO EXPECTED LOSS OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING HAS BEEN SPED UP
SLIGHTLY.  HAVE LOWERED MAXIMA SLIGHTLY IN NORTHERN SECTIONS...BUT
TUESDAY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE WARMER OWING TO EXPECTED INSOLATION.

LOW POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW HAVE BEEN KEPT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  RAPID CLEARING ALLOWS FOR WARMING TREND TO COMMENCE
THURSDAY.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/02






000
FXUS64 KAMA 011744
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1144 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS...LIFR CONDITIONS AT KAMA SHOULD IMPROVE TO IFR WITHIN AN
HOUR OR TWO AS CEILINGS GRADUALLY INCREASE. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING KGUY. CEILINGS AT KGUY SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LOWER TO IFR
AGAIN THIS EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND REMNANT
SNOW COVER OVERNIGHT WILL MAKE FOR IDEAL FOG/FREEZING FOG CONDITIONS
ONCE AGAIN. THERE APPEARS TO BE A RELATIVELY HIGH PROBABILITY OF LIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY AT ALL THREE SITES LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF LIFR CATEGORY SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. GREATEST
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS SHOULD BE AT KAMA AND KDHT. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE AND MAKE
NECESSARY AMENDMENTS BASED ON TRENDS.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD SHALLOW AIRMASS RETAINS ITS HOLD ON THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES THIS MORNING.  AREAS OF FREEZING FOG EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM.  SOME SLOW MODIFICATION OF THIS AIRMASS IS
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON.

ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER TONIGHT.  WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL ACT TO KEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.  WITH NO STRONG
DYNAMICS EXPECTED TONIGHT...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION...AND HAVE CALLED FOR AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.

SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY HAVE BEEN RETAINED.  WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND THE PASSAGE OF A QUICK-MOVING VORTICITY MAXIMUM MAY
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE
MORNING AND LIGHT RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

HAVE REMOVED MONDAY NIGHT POPS DUE TO EXPECTED LOSS OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING HAS BEEN SPED UP
SLIGHTLY.  HAVE LOWERED MAXIMA SLIGHTLY IN NORTHERN SECTIONS...BUT
TUESDAY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE WARMER OWING TO EXPECTED INSOLATION.

LOW POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW HAVE BEEN KEPT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  RAPID CLEARING ALLOWS FOR WARMING TREND TO COMMENCE
THURSDAY.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/02






000
FXUS64 KAMA 011744
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1144 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS...LIFR CONDITIONS AT KAMA SHOULD IMPROVE TO IFR WITHIN AN
HOUR OR TWO AS CEILINGS GRADUALLY INCREASE. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING KGUY. CEILINGS AT KGUY SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LOWER TO IFR
AGAIN THIS EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND REMNANT
SNOW COVER OVERNIGHT WILL MAKE FOR IDEAL FOG/FREEZING FOG CONDITIONS
ONCE AGAIN. THERE APPEARS TO BE A RELATIVELY HIGH PROBABILITY OF LIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY AT ALL THREE SITES LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF LIFR CATEGORY SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. GREATEST
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS SHOULD BE AT KAMA AND KDHT. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE AND MAKE
NECESSARY AMENDMENTS BASED ON TRENDS.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD SHALLOW AIRMASS RETAINS ITS HOLD ON THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES THIS MORNING.  AREAS OF FREEZING FOG EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM.  SOME SLOW MODIFICATION OF THIS AIRMASS IS
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON.

ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER TONIGHT.  WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL ACT TO KEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.  WITH NO STRONG
DYNAMICS EXPECTED TONIGHT...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION...AND HAVE CALLED FOR AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.

SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY HAVE BEEN RETAINED.  WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND THE PASSAGE OF A QUICK-MOVING VORTICITY MAXIMUM MAY
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE
MORNING AND LIGHT RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

HAVE REMOVED MONDAY NIGHT POPS DUE TO EXPECTED LOSS OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING HAS BEEN SPED UP
SLIGHTLY.  HAVE LOWERED MAXIMA SLIGHTLY IN NORTHERN SECTIONS...BUT
TUESDAY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE WARMER OWING TO EXPECTED INSOLATION.

LOW POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW HAVE BEEN KEPT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  RAPID CLEARING ALLOWS FOR WARMING TREND TO COMMENCE
THURSDAY.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/02







000
FXUS64 KAMA 011153
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
553 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FZFG EARLY THIS
MORNING ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY. VSBYS
SHOULD IMPROVE SOME LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...HOWEVER IFR
CIGS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AT KAMA AND KDHT. CIGS AT
KGUY MAY STAY JUST ABOVE IFR LEVELS DURING THE DAY...BUT IT WILL BE
RIGHT ON THE EDGE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AGAIN THIS EVENING WITH
CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO LIFR AND VSBYS TO IFR OR LOWER IN FZFG AND
POSSIBLY -FZDZ.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD SHALLOW AIRMASS RETAINS ITS HOLD ON THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES THIS MORNING.  AREAS OF FREEZING FOG EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM.  SOME SLOW MODIFICATION OF THIS AIRMASS IS
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON.

ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER TONIGHT.  WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL ACT TO KEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.  WITH NO STRONG
DYNAMICS EXPECTED TONIGHT...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION...AND HAVE CALLED FOR AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.

SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY HAVE BEEN RETAINED.  WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND THE PASSAGE OF A QUICK-MOVING VORTICITY MAXIMUM MAY
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE
MORNING AND LIGHT RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

HAVE REMOVED MONDAY NIGHT POPS DUE TO EXPECTED LOSS OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING HAS BEEN SPED UP
SLIGHTLY.  HAVE LOWERED MAXIMA SLIGHTLY IN NORTHERN SECTIONS...BUT
TUESDAY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE WARMER OWING TO EXPECTED INSOLATION.

LOW POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW HAVE BEEN KEPT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  RAPID CLEARING ALLOWS FOR WARMING TREND TO COMMENCE
THURSDAY.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...
     GRAY...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...
     RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$

08/03






000
FXUS64 KAMA 011153
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
553 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FZFG EARLY THIS
MORNING ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY. VSBYS
SHOULD IMPROVE SOME LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...HOWEVER IFR
CIGS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AT KAMA AND KDHT. CIGS AT
KGUY MAY STAY JUST ABOVE IFR LEVELS DURING THE DAY...BUT IT WILL BE
RIGHT ON THE EDGE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AGAIN THIS EVENING WITH
CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO LIFR AND VSBYS TO IFR OR LOWER IN FZFG AND
POSSIBLY -FZDZ.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD SHALLOW AIRMASS RETAINS ITS HOLD ON THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES THIS MORNING.  AREAS OF FREEZING FOG EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM.  SOME SLOW MODIFICATION OF THIS AIRMASS IS
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON.

ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER TONIGHT.  WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL ACT TO KEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.  WITH NO STRONG
DYNAMICS EXPECTED TONIGHT...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION...AND HAVE CALLED FOR AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.

SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY HAVE BEEN RETAINED.  WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND THE PASSAGE OF A QUICK-MOVING VORTICITY MAXIMUM MAY
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE
MORNING AND LIGHT RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

HAVE REMOVED MONDAY NIGHT POPS DUE TO EXPECTED LOSS OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING HAS BEEN SPED UP
SLIGHTLY.  HAVE LOWERED MAXIMA SLIGHTLY IN NORTHERN SECTIONS...BUT
TUESDAY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE WARMER OWING TO EXPECTED INSOLATION.

LOW POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW HAVE BEEN KEPT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  RAPID CLEARING ALLOWS FOR WARMING TREND TO COMMENCE
THURSDAY.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...
     GRAY...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...
     RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$

08/03







000
FXUS64 KAMA 011038
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
438 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
COLD SHALLOW AIRMASS RETAINS ITS HOLD ON THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES THIS MORNING.  AREAS OF FREEZING FOG EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM.  SOME SLOW MODIFICATION OF THIS AIRMASS IS
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON.

ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER TONIGHT.  WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL ACT TO KEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.  WITH NO STRONG
DYNAMICS EXPECTED TONIGHT...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION...AND HAVE CALLED FOR AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.

SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY HAVE BEEN RETAINED.  WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND THE PASSAGE OF A QUICK-MOVING VORTICITY MAXIMUM MAY
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE
MORNING AND LIGHT RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

HAVE REMOVED MONDAY NIGHT POPS DUE TO EXPECTED LOSS OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING HAS BEEN SPED UP
SLIGHTLY.  HAVE LOWERED MAXIMA SLIGHTLY IN NORTHERN SECTIONS...BUT
TUESDAY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE WARMER OWING TO EXPECTED INSOLATION.

LOW POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW HAVE BEEN KEPT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  RAPID CLEARING ALLOWS FOR WARMING TREND TO COMMENCE
THURSDAY.

COCKRELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                36  24  42  38  58 /   5  10  20   5  10
BEAVER OK                  30  21  41  35  50 /   5  10  20   5  10
BOISE CITY OK              29  20  41  34  46 /   5  10  20   5  10
BORGER TX                  34  24  40  40  59 /   5  10  20   5  10
BOYS RANCH TX              38  25  48  38  55 /   5  10  20   5   5
CANYON TX                  37  25  43  38  60 /   5  10  20   5  10
CLARENDON TX               33  24  38  35  60 /  10  10  20  10  10
DALHART TX                 33  22  45  36  51 /   5  10  20   5   5
GUYMON OK                  30  21  44  37  52 /  10  10  20   5  10
HEREFORD TX                39  25  43  37  59 /   5  10  20  10  10
LIPSCOMB TX                31  23  42  37  56 /   5  10  20  10  10
PAMPA TX                   33  23  38  36  55 /   5  10  20   5  10
SHAMROCK TX                32  23  41  35  58 /  10  10  20  10  10
WELLINGTON TX              35  26  41  36  64 /  10  10  20  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...
     GRAY...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...
     RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$

08/03





000
FXUS64 KAMA 011038
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
438 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
COLD SHALLOW AIRMASS RETAINS ITS HOLD ON THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES THIS MORNING.  AREAS OF FREEZING FOG EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM.  SOME SLOW MODIFICATION OF THIS AIRMASS IS
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON.

ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER TONIGHT.  WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL ACT TO KEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.  WITH NO STRONG
DYNAMICS EXPECTED TONIGHT...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION...AND HAVE CALLED FOR AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.

SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY HAVE BEEN RETAINED.  WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND THE PASSAGE OF A QUICK-MOVING VORTICITY MAXIMUM MAY
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE
MORNING AND LIGHT RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

HAVE REMOVED MONDAY NIGHT POPS DUE TO EXPECTED LOSS OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING HAS BEEN SPED UP
SLIGHTLY.  HAVE LOWERED MAXIMA SLIGHTLY IN NORTHERN SECTIONS...BUT
TUESDAY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE WARMER OWING TO EXPECTED INSOLATION.

LOW POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW HAVE BEEN KEPT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  RAPID CLEARING ALLOWS FOR WARMING TREND TO COMMENCE
THURSDAY.

COCKRELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                36  24  42  38  58 /   5  10  20   5  10
BEAVER OK                  30  21  41  35  50 /   5  10  20   5  10
BOISE CITY OK              29  20  41  34  46 /   5  10  20   5  10
BORGER TX                  34  24  40  40  59 /   5  10  20   5  10
BOYS RANCH TX              38  25  48  38  55 /   5  10  20   5   5
CANYON TX                  37  25  43  38  60 /   5  10  20   5  10
CLARENDON TX               33  24  38  35  60 /  10  10  20  10  10
DALHART TX                 33  22  45  36  51 /   5  10  20   5   5
GUYMON OK                  30  21  44  37  52 /  10  10  20   5  10
HEREFORD TX                39  25  43  37  59 /   5  10  20  10  10
LIPSCOMB TX                31  23  42  37  56 /   5  10  20  10  10
PAMPA TX                   33  23  38  36  55 /   5  10  20   5  10
SHAMROCK TX                32  23  41  35  58 /  10  10  20  10  10
WELLINGTON TX              35  26  41  36  64 /  10  10  20  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...
     GRAY...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...
     RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$

08/03






000
FXUS64 KAMA 010530 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1130 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS AT DHT AND GUY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE IFR
RANGE OVERNIGHT. THEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AT THESE SITES. A WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE GUY AND DHT TAF SITES SWITCHING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE
NORTHEAST...BUT THE SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS.

AT AMA...IFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THEY SHOULD GO BACK TO IFR BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.
THE WIND SHIFT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS AMA BY EARLY EVENING SUNDAY
SWITCHING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 838 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...
ADDED AREAS OF FREEZING FOG TO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH 10AM. SURROUNDING CWAS HAVE HAD PERIODS OF DENSE FOG
ALREADY THIS EVENING...BASED ON SOUNDING AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT
VISIBILITIES WILL DROP THAT LOW AT THIS TIME BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH.

ELSENHEIMER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL ONLY GO DOWN TONIGHT INTO THE IFR RANGE. THE IFR
CONDITIONS WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SOME
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT GUY
SO HAVE RETAINED THE MENTION THERE. WILL WATCH THE TRENDS AND SEE IF
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL NEED TO BE MENTIONED AT DHT AND AMA. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST AT DHT AND GUY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE NEXT TO LAST IN A SERIES OF STORMS SYSTEMS SLATED TO IMPACT THE
TX AND OK PNHDLS WEATHER IS A CLOSED LOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST. OUR
FCST AREA WILL BE IN SW FLOW ALOFT...WHICH SUGGESTS AN EROSION OF THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION AND A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPS
THRU TUESDAY. ALSO...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE A WINTRY MIX OF EITHER LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...OR LIGHT SLEET. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL BE PRESENT SUCH THAT ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
ALL LIQUID DURG THAT TIME. IT APPEARS THAT ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THRU MONDAY AFTERNOON. SLGT
CHC POPS WERE UTILIZED TONIGHT THRU MONDAY.

THE LAST IN THE SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL BE A FAST MOVING UPPER
LEVEL TROF AND ITS ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE
PROGGED TO IMPACT THE TX AND OK PNHDLS DURG THE TUESDAY THRU
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A SMALL THREAT OF
LIGHT SNOW ARE THE MAIN WEATHER ELEMENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FINAL
STORM SYSTEM IN THE SERIES. A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED NEXT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...GRAY...
     HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...
     SHERMAN.

OK...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$

15/03







000
FXUS64 KAMA 010530 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1130 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS AT DHT AND GUY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE IFR
RANGE OVERNIGHT. THEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AT THESE SITES. A WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE GUY AND DHT TAF SITES SWITCHING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE
NORTHEAST...BUT THE SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS.

AT AMA...IFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THEY SHOULD GO BACK TO IFR BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.
THE WIND SHIFT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS AMA BY EARLY EVENING SUNDAY
SWITCHING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 838 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...
ADDED AREAS OF FREEZING FOG TO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH 10AM. SURROUNDING CWAS HAVE HAD PERIODS OF DENSE FOG
ALREADY THIS EVENING...BASED ON SOUNDING AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT
VISIBILITIES WILL DROP THAT LOW AT THIS TIME BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH.

ELSENHEIMER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL ONLY GO DOWN TONIGHT INTO THE IFR RANGE. THE IFR
CONDITIONS WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SOME
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT GUY
SO HAVE RETAINED THE MENTION THERE. WILL WATCH THE TRENDS AND SEE IF
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL NEED TO BE MENTIONED AT DHT AND AMA. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST AT DHT AND GUY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE NEXT TO LAST IN A SERIES OF STORMS SYSTEMS SLATED TO IMPACT THE
TX AND OK PNHDLS WEATHER IS A CLOSED LOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST. OUR
FCST AREA WILL BE IN SW FLOW ALOFT...WHICH SUGGESTS AN EROSION OF THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION AND A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPS
THRU TUESDAY. ALSO...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE A WINTRY MIX OF EITHER LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...OR LIGHT SLEET. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL BE PRESENT SUCH THAT ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
ALL LIQUID DURG THAT TIME. IT APPEARS THAT ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THRU MONDAY AFTERNOON. SLGT
CHC POPS WERE UTILIZED TONIGHT THRU MONDAY.

THE LAST IN THE SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL BE A FAST MOVING UPPER
LEVEL TROF AND ITS ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE
PROGGED TO IMPACT THE TX AND OK PNHDLS DURG THE TUESDAY THRU
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A SMALL THREAT OF
LIGHT SNOW ARE THE MAIN WEATHER ELEMENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FINAL
STORM SYSTEM IN THE SERIES. A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED NEXT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...GRAY...
     HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...
     SHERMAN.

OK...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$

15/03






000
FXUS64 KAMA 010238
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
838 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ADDED AREAS OF FREEZING FOG TO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH 10AM. SURROUNDING CWAS HAVE HAD PERIODS OF DENSE FOG
ALREADY THIS EVENING...BASED ON SOUNDING AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT
VISIBILITIES WILL DROP THAT LOW AT THIS TIME BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL ONLY GO DOWN TONIGHT INTO THE IFR RANGE. THE IFR
CONDITIONS WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SOME
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT GUY
SO HAVE RETAINED THE MENTION THERE. WILL WATCH THE TRENDS AND SEE IF
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL NEED TO BE MENTIONED AT DHT AND AMA. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST AT DHT AND GUY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE NEXT TO LAST IN A SERIES OF STORMS SYSTEMS SLATED TO IMPACT THE
TX AND OK PNHDLS WEATHER IS A CLOSED LOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST. OUR
FCST AREA WILL BE IN SW FLOW ALOFT...WHICH SUGGESTS AN EROSION OF THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION AND A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPS
THRU TUESDAY. ALSO...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE A WINTRY MIX OF EITHER LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...OR LIGHT SLEET. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL BE PRESENT SUCH THAT ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
ALL LIQUID DURG THAT TIME. IT APPEARS THAT ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THRU MONDAY AFTERNOON. SLGT
CHC POPS WERE UTILIZED TONIGHT THRU MONDAY.

THE LAST IN THE SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL BE A FAST MOVING UPPER
LEVEL TROF AND ITS ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE
PROGGED TO IMPACT THE TX AND OK PNHDLS DURG THE TUESDAY THRU
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A SMALL THREAT OF
LIGHT SNOW ARE THE MAIN WEATHER ELEMENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FINAL
STORM SYSTEM IN THE SERIES. A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED NEXT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

18/15







000
FXUS64 KAMA 010238
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
838 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ADDED AREAS OF FREEZING FOG TO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH 10AM. SURROUNDING CWAS HAVE HAD PERIODS OF DENSE FOG
ALREADY THIS EVENING...BASED ON SOUNDING AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT
VISIBILITIES WILL DROP THAT LOW AT THIS TIME BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL ONLY GO DOWN TONIGHT INTO THE IFR RANGE. THE IFR
CONDITIONS WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SOME
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT GUY
SO HAVE RETAINED THE MENTION THERE. WILL WATCH THE TRENDS AND SEE IF
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL NEED TO BE MENTIONED AT DHT AND AMA. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST AT DHT AND GUY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE NEXT TO LAST IN A SERIES OF STORMS SYSTEMS SLATED TO IMPACT THE
TX AND OK PNHDLS WEATHER IS A CLOSED LOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST. OUR
FCST AREA WILL BE IN SW FLOW ALOFT...WHICH SUGGESTS AN EROSION OF THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION AND A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPS
THRU TUESDAY. ALSO...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE A WINTRY MIX OF EITHER LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...OR LIGHT SLEET. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL BE PRESENT SUCH THAT ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
ALL LIQUID DURG THAT TIME. IT APPEARS THAT ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THRU MONDAY AFTERNOON. SLGT
CHC POPS WERE UTILIZED TONIGHT THRU MONDAY.

THE LAST IN THE SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL BE A FAST MOVING UPPER
LEVEL TROF AND ITS ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE
PROGGED TO IMPACT THE TX AND OK PNHDLS DURG THE TUESDAY THRU
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A SMALL THREAT OF
LIGHT SNOW ARE THE MAIN WEATHER ELEMENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FINAL
STORM SYSTEM IN THE SERIES. A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED NEXT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

18/15






000
FXUS64 KAMA 282330 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
530 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL ONLY GO DOWN TONIGHT INTO THE IFR RANGE. THE IFR
CONDITIONS WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SOME
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT GUY
SO HAVE RETAINED THE MENTION THERE. WILL WATCH THE TRENDS AND SEE IF
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL NEED TO BE MENTIONED AT DHT AND AMA. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST AT DHT AND GUY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE NEXT TO LAST IN A SERIES OF STORMS SYSTEMS SLATED TO IMPACT THE
TX AND OK PNHDLS WEATHER IS A CLOSED LOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST. OUR
FCST AREA WILL BE IN SW FLOW ALOFT...WHICH SUGGESTS AN EROSION OF THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION AND A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPS
THRU TUESDAY. ALSO...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WIL LIKELY BE A WINTRY MIX OF EITHER LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...OR LIGHT SLEET. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL BE PRESENT SUCH THAT ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
ALL LIQUID DURG THAT TIME. IT APPEARS THAT ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THRU MONDAY AFTERNOON. SLGT
CHC POPS WERE UTILIZED TONIGHT THRU MONDAY.

THE LAST IN THE SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL BE A FAST MOVING UPPER
LEVEL TROF AND ITS ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE
PROGGED TO IMPACT THE TX AND OK PNHDLS DURG THE TUESDAY THRU
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A SMALL THREAT OF
LIGHT SNOW ARE THE MAIN WEATHER ELEMENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FINAL
STORM SYSTEM IN THE SERIES. A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED NEXT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/18







000
FXUS64 KAMA 282330 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
530 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL ONLY GO DOWN TONIGHT INTO THE IFR RANGE. THE IFR
CONDITIONS WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SOME
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT GUY
SO HAVE RETAINED THE MENTION THERE. WILL WATCH THE TRENDS AND SEE IF
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL NEED TO BE MENTIONED AT DHT AND AMA. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST AT DHT AND GUY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE NEXT TO LAST IN A SERIES OF STORMS SYSTEMS SLATED TO IMPACT THE
TX AND OK PNHDLS WEATHER IS A CLOSED LOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST. OUR
FCST AREA WILL BE IN SW FLOW ALOFT...WHICH SUGGESTS AN EROSION OF THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION AND A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPS
THRU TUESDAY. ALSO...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WIL LIKELY BE A WINTRY MIX OF EITHER LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...OR LIGHT SLEET. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL BE PRESENT SUCH THAT ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
ALL LIQUID DURG THAT TIME. IT APPEARS THAT ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THRU MONDAY AFTERNOON. SLGT
CHC POPS WERE UTILIZED TONIGHT THRU MONDAY.

THE LAST IN THE SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL BE A FAST MOVING UPPER
LEVEL TROF AND ITS ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE
PROGGED TO IMPACT THE TX AND OK PNHDLS DURG THE TUESDAY THRU
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A SMALL THREAT OF
LIGHT SNOW ARE THE MAIN WEATHER ELEMENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FINAL
STORM SYSTEM IN THE SERIES. A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED NEXT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/18







000
FXUS64 KAMA 282330 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
530 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL ONLY GO DOWN TONIGHT INTO THE IFR RANGE. THE IFR
CONDITIONS WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SOME
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT GUY
SO HAVE RETAINED THE MENTION THERE. WILL WATCH THE TRENDS AND SEE IF
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL NEED TO BE MENTIONED AT DHT AND AMA. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST AT DHT AND GUY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE NEXT TO LAST IN A SERIES OF STORMS SYSTEMS SLATED TO IMPACT THE
TX AND OK PNHDLS WEATHER IS A CLOSED LOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST. OUR
FCST AREA WILL BE IN SW FLOW ALOFT...WHICH SUGGESTS AN EROSION OF THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION AND A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPS
THRU TUESDAY. ALSO...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WIL LIKELY BE A WINTRY MIX OF EITHER LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...OR LIGHT SLEET. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL BE PRESENT SUCH THAT ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
ALL LIQUID DURG THAT TIME. IT APPEARS THAT ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THRU MONDAY AFTERNOON. SLGT
CHC POPS WERE UTILIZED TONIGHT THRU MONDAY.

THE LAST IN THE SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL BE A FAST MOVING UPPER
LEVEL TROF AND ITS ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE
PROGGED TO IMPACT THE TX AND OK PNHDLS DURG THE TUESDAY THRU
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A SMALL THREAT OF
LIGHT SNOW ARE THE MAIN WEATHER ELEMENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FINAL
STORM SYSTEM IN THE SERIES. A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED NEXT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/18






000
FXUS64 KAMA 282229
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
429 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE NEXT TO LAST IN A SERIES OF STORMS SYSTEMS SLATED TO IMPACT THE
TX AND OK PNHDLS WEATHER IS A CLOSED LOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST. OUR
FCST AREA WILL BE IN SW FLOW ALOFT...WHICH SUGGESTS AN EROSION OF THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION AND A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPS
THRU TUESDAY. ALSO...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WIL LIKELY BE A WINTRY MIX OF EITHER LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...OR LIGHT SLEET. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL BE PRESENT SUCH THAT ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
ALL LIQUID DURG THAT TIME. IT APPEARS THAT ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THRU MONDAY AFTERNOON. SLGT
CHC POPS WERE UTILIZED TONIGHT THRU MONDAY.

THE LAST IN THE SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL BE A FAST MOVING UPPER
LEVEL TROF AND ITS ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE
PROGGED TO IMPACT THE TX AND OK PNHDLS DURG THE TUESDAY THRU
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A SMALL THREAT OF
LIGHT SNOW ARE THE MAIN WEATHER ELEMENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FINAL
STORM SYSTEM IN THE SERIES. A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED NEXT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANDRADE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                22  40  25  49  39 /  20  20  20  20  10
BEAVER OK                  21  33  23  43  36 /  20  20  20  20  10
BOISE CITY OK              21  34  22  48  35 /  20  20  30  20  10
BORGER TX                  23  41  27  47  39 /  20  20  20  20  10
BOYS RANCH TX              22  41  25  50  38 /  20  10  20  20  10
CANYON TX                  22  42  26  49  38 /  20  20  20  20  10
CLARENDON TX               23  40  27  44  38 /  20  20  20  20  20
DALHART TX                 21  38  25  50  36 /  20  20  20  20  10
GUYMON OK                  21  35  23  46  38 /  20  20  30  20  10
HEREFORD TX                22  44  26  49  37 /  20  10  20  20  10
LIPSCOMB TX                22  33  24  42  37 /  20  20  20  20  10
PAMPA TX                   22  38  25  44  38 /  20  20  20  20  10
SHAMROCK TX                23  38  27  42  38 /  20  20  20  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              25  39  28  42  39 /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 282229
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
429 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE NEXT TO LAST IN A SERIES OF STORMS SYSTEMS SLATED TO IMPACT THE
TX AND OK PNHDLS WEATHER IS A CLOSED LOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST. OUR
FCST AREA WILL BE IN SW FLOW ALOFT...WHICH SUGGESTS AN EROSION OF THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION AND A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPS
THRU TUESDAY. ALSO...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WIL LIKELY BE A WINTRY MIX OF EITHER LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...OR LIGHT SLEET. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL BE PRESENT SUCH THAT ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
ALL LIQUID DURG THAT TIME. IT APPEARS THAT ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THRU MONDAY AFTERNOON. SLGT
CHC POPS WERE UTILIZED TONIGHT THRU MONDAY.

THE LAST IN THE SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL BE A FAST MOVING UPPER
LEVEL TROF AND ITS ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE
PROGGED TO IMPACT THE TX AND OK PNHDLS DURG THE TUESDAY THRU
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A SMALL THREAT OF
LIGHT SNOW ARE THE MAIN WEATHER ELEMENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FINAL
STORM SYSTEM IN THE SERIES. A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED NEXT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANDRADE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                22  40  25  49  39 /  20  20  20  20  10
BEAVER OK                  21  33  23  43  36 /  20  20  20  20  10
BOISE CITY OK              21  34  22  48  35 /  20  20  30  20  10
BORGER TX                  23  41  27  47  39 /  20  20  20  20  10
BOYS RANCH TX              22  41  25  50  38 /  20  10  20  20  10
CANYON TX                  22  42  26  49  38 /  20  20  20  20  10
CLARENDON TX               23  40  27  44  38 /  20  20  20  20  20
DALHART TX                 21  38  25  50  36 /  20  20  20  20  10
GUYMON OK                  21  35  23  46  38 /  20  20  30  20  10
HEREFORD TX                22  44  26  49  37 /  20  10  20  20  10
LIPSCOMB TX                22  33  24  42  37 /  20  20  20  20  10
PAMPA TX                   22  38  25  44  38 /  20  20  20  20  10
SHAMROCK TX                23  38  27  42  38 /  20  20  20  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              25  39  28  42  39 /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 282229
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
429 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE NEXT TO LAST IN A SERIES OF STORMS SYSTEMS SLATED TO IMPACT THE
TX AND OK PNHDLS WEATHER IS A CLOSED LOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST. OUR
FCST AREA WILL BE IN SW FLOW ALOFT...WHICH SUGGESTS AN EROSION OF THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION AND A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPS
THRU TUESDAY. ALSO...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WIL LIKELY BE A WINTRY MIX OF EITHER LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...OR LIGHT SLEET. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL BE PRESENT SUCH THAT ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
ALL LIQUID DURG THAT TIME. IT APPEARS THAT ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THRU MONDAY AFTERNOON. SLGT
CHC POPS WERE UTILIZED TONIGHT THRU MONDAY.

THE LAST IN THE SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL BE A FAST MOVING UPPER
LEVEL TROF AND ITS ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE
PROGGED TO IMPACT THE TX AND OK PNHDLS DURG THE TUESDAY THRU
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A SMALL THREAT OF
LIGHT SNOW ARE THE MAIN WEATHER ELEMENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FINAL
STORM SYSTEM IN THE SERIES. A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED NEXT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANDRADE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                22  40  25  49  39 /  20  20  20  20  10
BEAVER OK                  21  33  23  43  36 /  20  20  20  20  10
BOISE CITY OK              21  34  22  48  35 /  20  20  30  20  10
BORGER TX                  23  41  27  47  39 /  20  20  20  20  10
BOYS RANCH TX              22  41  25  50  38 /  20  10  20  20  10
CANYON TX                  22  42  26  49  38 /  20  20  20  20  10
CLARENDON TX               23  40  27  44  38 /  20  20  20  20  20
DALHART TX                 21  38  25  50  36 /  20  20  20  20  10
GUYMON OK                  21  35  23  46  38 /  20  20  30  20  10
HEREFORD TX                22  44  26  49  37 /  20  10  20  20  10
LIPSCOMB TX                22  33  24  42  37 /  20  20  20  20  10
PAMPA TX                   22  38  25  44  38 /  20  20  20  20  10
SHAMROCK TX                23  38  27  42  38 /  20  20  20  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              25  39  28  42  39 /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 282229
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
429 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE NEXT TO LAST IN A SERIES OF STORMS SYSTEMS SLATED TO IMPACT THE
TX AND OK PNHDLS WEATHER IS A CLOSED LOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST. OUR
FCST AREA WILL BE IN SW FLOW ALOFT...WHICH SUGGESTS AN EROSION OF THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION AND A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPS
THRU TUESDAY. ALSO...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WIL LIKELY BE A WINTRY MIX OF EITHER LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...OR LIGHT SLEET. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL BE PRESENT SUCH THAT ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
ALL LIQUID DURG THAT TIME. IT APPEARS THAT ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THRU MONDAY AFTERNOON. SLGT
CHC POPS WERE UTILIZED TONIGHT THRU MONDAY.

THE LAST IN THE SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL BE A FAST MOVING UPPER
LEVEL TROF AND ITS ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE
PROGGED TO IMPACT THE TX AND OK PNHDLS DURG THE TUESDAY THRU
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A SMALL THREAT OF
LIGHT SNOW ARE THE MAIN WEATHER ELEMENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FINAL
STORM SYSTEM IN THE SERIES. A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED NEXT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANDRADE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                22  40  25  49  39 /  20  20  20  20  10
BEAVER OK                  21  33  23  43  36 /  20  20  20  20  10
BOISE CITY OK              21  34  22  48  35 /  20  20  30  20  10
BORGER TX                  23  41  27  47  39 /  20  20  20  20  10
BOYS RANCH TX              22  41  25  50  38 /  20  10  20  20  10
CANYON TX                  22  42  26  49  38 /  20  20  20  20  10
CLARENDON TX               23  40  27  44  38 /  20  20  20  20  20
DALHART TX                 21  38  25  50  36 /  20  20  20  20  10
GUYMON OK                  21  35  23  46  38 /  20  20  30  20  10
HEREFORD TX                22  44  26  49  37 /  20  10  20  20  10
LIPSCOMB TX                22  33  24  42  37 /  20  20  20  20  10
PAMPA TX                   22  38  25  44  38 /  20  20  20  20  10
SHAMROCK TX                23  38  27  42  38 /  20  20  20  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              25  39  28  42  39 /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 281753
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1153 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS...IFR CEILINGS AT KAMA AND KDHT WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH
THE DAY. KGUY WILL REMAIN MVFR UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS
EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO LOWER CEILINGS AND POTENTIALLY FOG LATER TONIGHT AT ALL
SITES. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIFR CONDITIONS SEEMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY AND AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES OF VLIFR LATE
TONIGHT. MOISTURE MAY BECOME DEEP ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY
AT KGUY WHERE A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT IS LESS LIKELY FURTHER SOUTH. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
STRONG JET STREAK IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL PROVIDE LARGE-SCALE LIFT
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS MORNING.  FAIRLY STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS.
WITH ECHOES CONTINUING AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY GOING THROUGH NOON ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS...WHERE AN
ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED.

THIS AFTERNOON...DEVELOPMENT OF WARM LAYER ALOFT COMMENCES...
CAUSING CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE.
LIGHT FREEZING OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
MORE LIKELY...BUT HAVE ALSO CALLED FOR POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SLEET
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.  FORTUNATELY...
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE DUE
TO LACK OF STRONG UPWARD MOTIONS.  FOR NOW...LOW POPS AND LOW QPF
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LOOKS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED.  TUESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST AS DRY WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS
AHEAD OF TUESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT.  STRONGLY BAROCLINIC FRONTAL
ZONE MAY ASSIST IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW SNOW POPS IN MAINLY WESTERN
SECTIONS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS POSITIVELY-TILTED MID-
LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  THURSDAY AND BEYOND EXPECTED TO
BE DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...
     SHERMAN.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

17/02






000
FXUS64 KAMA 281753
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1153 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS...IFR CEILINGS AT KAMA AND KDHT WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH
THE DAY. KGUY WILL REMAIN MVFR UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS
EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO LOWER CEILINGS AND POTENTIALLY FOG LATER TONIGHT AT ALL
SITES. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIFR CONDITIONS SEEMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY AND AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES OF VLIFR LATE
TONIGHT. MOISTURE MAY BECOME DEEP ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY
AT KGUY WHERE A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT IS LESS LIKELY FURTHER SOUTH. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
STRONG JET STREAK IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL PROVIDE LARGE-SCALE LIFT
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS MORNING.  FAIRLY STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS.
WITH ECHOES CONTINUING AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY GOING THROUGH NOON ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS...WHERE AN
ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED.

THIS AFTERNOON...DEVELOPMENT OF WARM LAYER ALOFT COMMENCES...
CAUSING CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE.
LIGHT FREEZING OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
MORE LIKELY...BUT HAVE ALSO CALLED FOR POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SLEET
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.  FORTUNATELY...
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE DUE
TO LACK OF STRONG UPWARD MOTIONS.  FOR NOW...LOW POPS AND LOW QPF
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LOOKS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED.  TUESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST AS DRY WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS
AHEAD OF TUESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT.  STRONGLY BAROCLINIC FRONTAL
ZONE MAY ASSIST IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW SNOW POPS IN MAINLY WESTERN
SECTIONS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS POSITIVELY-TILTED MID-
LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  THURSDAY AND BEYOND EXPECTED TO
BE DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...
     SHERMAN.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

17/02







000
FXUS64 KAMA 281753
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1153 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS...IFR CEILINGS AT KAMA AND KDHT WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH
THE DAY. KGUY WILL REMAIN MVFR UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS
EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO LOWER CEILINGS AND POTENTIALLY FOG LATER TONIGHT AT ALL
SITES. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIFR CONDITIONS SEEMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY AND AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES OF VLIFR LATE
TONIGHT. MOISTURE MAY BECOME DEEP ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY
AT KGUY WHERE A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT IS LESS LIKELY FURTHER SOUTH. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
STRONG JET STREAK IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL PROVIDE LARGE-SCALE LIFT
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS MORNING.  FAIRLY STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS.
WITH ECHOES CONTINUING AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY GOING THROUGH NOON ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS...WHERE AN
ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED.

THIS AFTERNOON...DEVELOPMENT OF WARM LAYER ALOFT COMMENCES...
CAUSING CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE.
LIGHT FREEZING OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
MORE LIKELY...BUT HAVE ALSO CALLED FOR POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SLEET
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.  FORTUNATELY...
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE DUE
TO LACK OF STRONG UPWARD MOTIONS.  FOR NOW...LOW POPS AND LOW QPF
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LOOKS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED.  TUESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST AS DRY WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS
AHEAD OF TUESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT.  STRONGLY BAROCLINIC FRONTAL
ZONE MAY ASSIST IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW SNOW POPS IN MAINLY WESTERN
SECTIONS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS POSITIVELY-TILTED MID-
LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  THURSDAY AND BEYOND EXPECTED TO
BE DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...
     SHERMAN.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

17/02







000
FXUS64 KAMA 281753
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1153 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS...IFR CEILINGS AT KAMA AND KDHT WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH
THE DAY. KGUY WILL REMAIN MVFR UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS
EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO LOWER CEILINGS AND POTENTIALLY FOG LATER TONIGHT AT ALL
SITES. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIFR CONDITIONS SEEMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY AND AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES OF VLIFR LATE
TONIGHT. MOISTURE MAY BECOME DEEP ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY
AT KGUY WHERE A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT IS LESS LIKELY FURTHER SOUTH. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
STRONG JET STREAK IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL PROVIDE LARGE-SCALE LIFT
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS MORNING.  FAIRLY STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS.
WITH ECHOES CONTINUING AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY GOING THROUGH NOON ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS...WHERE AN
ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED.

THIS AFTERNOON...DEVELOPMENT OF WARM LAYER ALOFT COMMENCES...
CAUSING CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE.
LIGHT FREEZING OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
MORE LIKELY...BUT HAVE ALSO CALLED FOR POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SLEET
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.  FORTUNATELY...
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE DUE
TO LACK OF STRONG UPWARD MOTIONS.  FOR NOW...LOW POPS AND LOW QPF
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LOOKS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED.  TUESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST AS DRY WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS
AHEAD OF TUESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT.  STRONGLY BAROCLINIC FRONTAL
ZONE MAY ASSIST IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW SNOW POPS IN MAINLY WESTERN
SECTIONS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS POSITIVELY-TILTED MID-
LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  THURSDAY AND BEYOND EXPECTED TO
BE DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...
     SHERMAN.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

17/02






000
FXUS64 KAMA 281205
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
605 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...GENERALLY POOR FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
INITIALLY THIS MORNING AS OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW AND FOG IMPACT THE
TERMINALS...WITH LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KAMA. SNOW CHANCES WILL WANE
BY MID TO LATE MORNING /ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL FLURRIES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE INTO THIS AFTERNOON/...AND CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO
THE LOW MVFR TO IFR RANGE...LIKELY HOVERING RIGHT AROUND 1 KFT AGL
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL THEN LOWER TO IFR AND POSSIBLY
LIFR LEVELS AROUND 02-03Z THIS EVENING AS THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER
MOISTENS. BR/FZFG ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...WITH DEEPER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE SUPPORTING A GREATER THREAT OF -FZDZ AT KGUY. EXPECT THESE
IFR TO POTENTIALLY LIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
STRONG JET STREAK IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL PROVIDE LARGE-SCALE LIFT
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS MORNING.  FAIRLY STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS.
WITH ECHOES CONTINUING AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY GOING THROUGH NOON ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS...WHERE AN
ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED.

THIS AFTERNOON...DEVELOPMENT OF WARM LAYER ALOFT COMMENCES...
CAUSING CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE.
LIGHT FREEZING OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
MORE LIKELY...BUT HAVE ALSO CALLED FOR POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SLEET
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.  FORTUNATELY...
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE DUE
TO LACK OF STRONG UPWARD MOTIONS.  FOR NOW...LOW POPS AND LOW QPF
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LOOKS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED.  TUESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST AS DRY WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS
AHEAD OF TUESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT.  STRONGLY BAROCLINIC FRONTAL
ZONE MAY ASSIST IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW SNOW POPS IN MAINLY WESTERN
SECTIONS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS POSITIVELY-TILTED MID-
LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  THURSDAY AND BEYOND EXPECTED TO
BE DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...
     SHERMAN.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

08/03






000
FXUS64 KAMA 281205
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
605 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...GENERALLY POOR FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
INITIALLY THIS MORNING AS OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW AND FOG IMPACT THE
TERMINALS...WITH LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KAMA. SNOW CHANCES WILL WANE
BY MID TO LATE MORNING /ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL FLURRIES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE INTO THIS AFTERNOON/...AND CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO
THE LOW MVFR TO IFR RANGE...LIKELY HOVERING RIGHT AROUND 1 KFT AGL
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL THEN LOWER TO IFR AND POSSIBLY
LIFR LEVELS AROUND 02-03Z THIS EVENING AS THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER
MOISTENS. BR/FZFG ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...WITH DEEPER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE SUPPORTING A GREATER THREAT OF -FZDZ AT KGUY. EXPECT THESE
IFR TO POTENTIALLY LIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
STRONG JET STREAK IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL PROVIDE LARGE-SCALE LIFT
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS MORNING.  FAIRLY STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS.
WITH ECHOES CONTINUING AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY GOING THROUGH NOON ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS...WHERE AN
ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED.

THIS AFTERNOON...DEVELOPMENT OF WARM LAYER ALOFT COMMENCES...
CAUSING CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE.
LIGHT FREEZING OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
MORE LIKELY...BUT HAVE ALSO CALLED FOR POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SLEET
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.  FORTUNATELY...
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE DUE
TO LACK OF STRONG UPWARD MOTIONS.  FOR NOW...LOW POPS AND LOW QPF
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LOOKS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED.  TUESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST AS DRY WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS
AHEAD OF TUESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT.  STRONGLY BAROCLINIC FRONTAL
ZONE MAY ASSIST IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW SNOW POPS IN MAINLY WESTERN
SECTIONS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS POSITIVELY-TILTED MID-
LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  THURSDAY AND BEYOND EXPECTED TO
BE DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...
     SHERMAN.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

08/03







000
FXUS64 KAMA 281205
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
605 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...GENERALLY POOR FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
INITIALLY THIS MORNING AS OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW AND FOG IMPACT THE
TERMINALS...WITH LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KAMA. SNOW CHANCES WILL WANE
BY MID TO LATE MORNING /ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL FLURRIES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE INTO THIS AFTERNOON/...AND CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO
THE LOW MVFR TO IFR RANGE...LIKELY HOVERING RIGHT AROUND 1 KFT AGL
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL THEN LOWER TO IFR AND POSSIBLY
LIFR LEVELS AROUND 02-03Z THIS EVENING AS THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER
MOISTENS. BR/FZFG ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...WITH DEEPER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE SUPPORTING A GREATER THREAT OF -FZDZ AT KGUY. EXPECT THESE
IFR TO POTENTIALLY LIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
STRONG JET STREAK IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL PROVIDE LARGE-SCALE LIFT
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS MORNING.  FAIRLY STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS.
WITH ECHOES CONTINUING AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY GOING THROUGH NOON ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS...WHERE AN
ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED.

THIS AFTERNOON...DEVELOPMENT OF WARM LAYER ALOFT COMMENCES...
CAUSING CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE.
LIGHT FREEZING OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
MORE LIKELY...BUT HAVE ALSO CALLED FOR POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SLEET
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.  FORTUNATELY...
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE DUE
TO LACK OF STRONG UPWARD MOTIONS.  FOR NOW...LOW POPS AND LOW QPF
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LOOKS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED.  TUESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST AS DRY WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS
AHEAD OF TUESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT.  STRONGLY BAROCLINIC FRONTAL
ZONE MAY ASSIST IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW SNOW POPS IN MAINLY WESTERN
SECTIONS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS POSITIVELY-TILTED MID-
LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  THURSDAY AND BEYOND EXPECTED TO
BE DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...
     SHERMAN.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

08/03







000
FXUS64 KAMA 281042
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
430 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG JET STREAK IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL PROVIDE LARGE-SCALE LIFT
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS MORNING.  FAIRLY STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS.
WITH ECHOES CONTINUING AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY GOING THROUGH NOON ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS...WHERE AN
ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED.

THIS AFTERNOON...DEVELOPMENT OF WARM LAYER ALOFT COMMENCES...
CAUSING CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE.
LIGHT FREEZING OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
MORE LIKELY...BUT HAVE ALSO CALLED FOR POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SLEET
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.  FORTUNATELY...
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE DUE
TO LACK OF STRONG UPWARD MOTIONS.  FOR NOW...LOW POPS AND LOW QPF
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LOOKS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED.  TUESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST AS DRY WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS
AHEAD OF TUESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT.  STRONGLY BAROCLINIC FRONTAL
ZONE MAY ASSIST IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW SNOW POPS IN MAINLY WESTERN
SECTIONS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS POSITIVELY-TILTED MID-
LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  THURSDAY AND BEYOND EXPECTED TO
BE DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

COCKRELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                32  27  43  26  48 /  40  20  20  20  20
BEAVER OK                  29  22  35  23  43 /  80  30  20  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              31  22  31  21  46 /  40  20  20  30  20
BORGER TX                  32  27  40  26  47 /  50  20  20  20  20
BOYS RANCH TX              34  27  43  27  51 /  40  20  20  20  20
CANYON TX                  33  29  44  27  49 /  40  20  20  20  20
CLARENDON TX               29  24  43  26  44 /  40  20  20  20  20
DALHART TX                 34  24  36  23  48 /  40  20  20  20  20
GUYMON OK                  32  25  34  24  46 /  60  30  20  30  20
HEREFORD TX                35  28  48  28  50 /  40  20  10  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                28  25  38  25  42 /  70  30  20  20  20
PAMPA TX                   29  24  39  24  44 /  50  20  20  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                29  24  40  26  43 /  60  30  20  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              31  27  43  29  43 /  50  30  20  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...
     SHERMAN.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

08/03






000
FXUS64 KAMA 281042
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
430 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG JET STREAK IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL PROVIDE LARGE-SCALE LIFT
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS MORNING.  FAIRLY STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS.
WITH ECHOES CONTINUING AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY GOING THROUGH NOON ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS...WHERE AN
ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED.

THIS AFTERNOON...DEVELOPMENT OF WARM LAYER ALOFT COMMENCES...
CAUSING CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE.
LIGHT FREEZING OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
MORE LIKELY...BUT HAVE ALSO CALLED FOR POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SLEET
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.  FORTUNATELY...
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE DUE
TO LACK OF STRONG UPWARD MOTIONS.  FOR NOW...LOW POPS AND LOW QPF
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LOOKS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED.  TUESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST AS DRY WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS
AHEAD OF TUESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT.  STRONGLY BAROCLINIC FRONTAL
ZONE MAY ASSIST IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW SNOW POPS IN MAINLY WESTERN
SECTIONS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS POSITIVELY-TILTED MID-
LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  THURSDAY AND BEYOND EXPECTED TO
BE DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

COCKRELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                32  27  43  26  48 /  40  20  20  20  20
BEAVER OK                  29  22  35  23  43 /  80  30  20  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              31  22  31  21  46 /  40  20  20  30  20
BORGER TX                  32  27  40  26  47 /  50  20  20  20  20
BOYS RANCH TX              34  27  43  27  51 /  40  20  20  20  20
CANYON TX                  33  29  44  27  49 /  40  20  20  20  20
CLARENDON TX               29  24  43  26  44 /  40  20  20  20  20
DALHART TX                 34  24  36  23  48 /  40  20  20  20  20
GUYMON OK                  32  25  34  24  46 /  60  30  20  30  20
HEREFORD TX                35  28  48  28  50 /  40  20  10  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                28  25  38  25  42 /  70  30  20  20  20
PAMPA TX                   29  24  39  24  44 /  50  20  20  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                29  24  40  26  43 /  60  30  20  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              31  27  43  29  43 /  50  30  20  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...
     SHERMAN.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

08/03





000
FXUS64 KAMA 280550 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1150 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
MAIN REASON FOR UPDATE WAS TO LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE AREA
BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS. SURFACE OBS AND MESONET SITES
INDICATE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS AND ANTICIPATE
TEMPERATURES TO FALL SEVERAL DEGREES FURTHER OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO IS GENERATING THE
NEXT ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW THAT IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TONIGHT. EXPECT THIS SNOW TO TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES. THIS FITS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
THAT BEGINS AT MIDNIGHT SO DO NOT SEE THE NEED TO MAKE ANY
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ADVISORY. STILL ANTICIPATING SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES WITHIN THE ADVISORY...WITH LESS THAN AN
INCH OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

CLK

&&

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/ NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING AS LIGHT SNOW WILL
IMPACT THE TERMINALS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CIGS AND VIS
WILL LOWER INTO THE MVFR AND IFR RANGE...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
FURTHER DETERIORATION TO LIFR. HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF LIFR
CONDITIONS GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT STILL EXPECT MVFR CIGS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY.
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS OF FOG LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
TERMINALS THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS AND VIS IN THE MVFR RANGE. NEXT
ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITHIN THIS AREA OF
SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO IFR. SNOW SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
TERMINALS BY AROUND 12-14Z SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WARM AIR ADVECTION
PROCESSES CAN RESULT IN A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS SUBTLE UPPER LIFT CAN GENERATE ADDITIONAL PRECIP
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST ATTM.

CLK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SNOW ROUND ONE HAS WRAPPED UP AND NOW ITS TIME TO GEAR UP FOR SNOW
ROUND TWO.

ROUND TWO STARTS UP LATE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVES OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INITIATES SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO PLAINS. THIS SNOW WILL ENTER THE FAR WESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE SPREADING AREA WIDE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. FOR THIS AREA 1-2 INCHES OF
STORM TOTAL SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH BY NOON SATURDAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL
BE RAISED FOR THE NORTHERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES STARTING
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH NOON SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING IN A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY TO PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
FOR THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH WHILE WE HOLD ONTO SNOW NORTH OF THE
CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ALOFT
CONTINUE TO WARM TO WHERE SNOW LOOKS UNLIKELY AREA WIDE AND THE
THREAT OF A LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX BECOMES MORE LIKELY. THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
A TENTH OF AN INCH.

AFTER THIS FIRST STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...A CLOSED LOW
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SRN CA COAST THIS WEEKEND. PNHDLS WILL BE IN SW
FLOW ALOFT WITH MODERATING TEMPS FORESSEN. ALSO...ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT FALLS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WIL LIKELY BE A
WINTRY MIX OF EITHER LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN...OR LIGHT SLEET. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL BE
PRESENT SUCH THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID.

THEN...A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND ITS ATTENDANT SFC COLD
FRONT IS SLATED TO IMPACT THE TX AND OK PNHDLS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT WINTER
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...
     SHERMAN.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

99/99







000
FXUS64 KAMA 280550 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1150 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
MAIN REASON FOR UPDATE WAS TO LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE AREA
BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS. SURFACE OBS AND MESONET SITES
INDICATE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS AND ANTICIPATE
TEMPERATURES TO FALL SEVERAL DEGREES FURTHER OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO IS GENERATING THE
NEXT ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW THAT IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TONIGHT. EXPECT THIS SNOW TO TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES. THIS FITS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
THAT BEGINS AT MIDNIGHT SO DO NOT SEE THE NEED TO MAKE ANY
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ADVISORY. STILL ANTICIPATING SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES WITHIN THE ADVISORY...WITH LESS THAN AN
INCH OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

CLK

&&

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/ NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING AS LIGHT SNOW WILL
IMPACT THE TERMINALS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CIGS AND VIS
WILL LOWER INTO THE MVFR AND IFR RANGE...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
FURTHER DETERIORATION TO LIFR. HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF LIFR
CONDITIONS GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT STILL EXPECT MVFR CIGS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY.
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS OF FOG LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
TERMINALS THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS AND VIS IN THE MVFR RANGE. NEXT
ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITHIN THIS AREA OF
SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO IFR. SNOW SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
TERMINALS BY AROUND 12-14Z SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WARM AIR ADVECTION
PROCESSES CAN RESULT IN A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS SUBTLE UPPER LIFT CAN GENERATE ADDITIONAL PRECIP
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST ATTM.

CLK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SNOW ROUND ONE HAS WRAPPED UP AND NOW ITS TIME TO GEAR UP FOR SNOW
ROUND TWO.

ROUND TWO STARTS UP LATE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVES OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INITIATES SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO PLAINS. THIS SNOW WILL ENTER THE FAR WESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE SPREADING AREA WIDE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. FOR THIS AREA 1-2 INCHES OF
STORM TOTAL SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH BY NOON SATURDAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL
BE RAISED FOR THE NORTHERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES STARTING
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH NOON SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING IN A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY TO PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
FOR THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH WHILE WE HOLD ONTO SNOW NORTH OF THE
CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ALOFT
CONTINUE TO WARM TO WHERE SNOW LOOKS UNLIKELY AREA WIDE AND THE
THREAT OF A LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX BECOMES MORE LIKELY. THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
A TENTH OF AN INCH.

AFTER THIS FIRST STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...A CLOSED LOW
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SRN CA COAST THIS WEEKEND. PNHDLS WILL BE IN SW
FLOW ALOFT WITH MODERATING TEMPS FORESSEN. ALSO...ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT FALLS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WIL LIKELY BE A
WINTRY MIX OF EITHER LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN...OR LIGHT SLEET. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL BE
PRESENT SUCH THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID.

THEN...A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND ITS ATTENDANT SFC COLD
FRONT IS SLATED TO IMPACT THE TX AND OK PNHDLS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT WINTER
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...
     SHERMAN.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

99/99






000
FXUS64 KAMA 280550 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1150 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
MAIN REASON FOR UPDATE WAS TO LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE AREA
BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS. SURFACE OBS AND MESONET SITES
INDICATE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS AND ANTICIPATE
TEMPERATURES TO FALL SEVERAL DEGREES FURTHER OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO IS GENERATING THE
NEXT ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW THAT IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TONIGHT. EXPECT THIS SNOW TO TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES. THIS FITS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
THAT BEGINS AT MIDNIGHT SO DO NOT SEE THE NEED TO MAKE ANY
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ADVISORY. STILL ANTICIPATING SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES WITHIN THE ADVISORY...WITH LESS THAN AN
INCH OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

CLK

&&

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/ NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING AS LIGHT SNOW WILL
IMPACT THE TERMINALS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CIGS AND VIS
WILL LOWER INTO THE MVFR AND IFR RANGE...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
FURTHER DETERIORATION TO LIFR. HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF LIFR
CONDITIONS GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT STILL EXPECT MVFR CIGS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY.
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS OF FOG LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
TERMINALS THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS AND VIS IN THE MVFR RANGE. NEXT
ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITHIN THIS AREA OF
SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO IFR. SNOW SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
TERMINALS BY AROUND 12-14Z SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WARM AIR ADVECTION
PROCESSES CAN RESULT IN A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS SUBTLE UPPER LIFT CAN GENERATE ADDITIONAL PRECIP
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST ATTM.

CLK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SNOW ROUND ONE HAS WRAPPED UP AND NOW ITS TIME TO GEAR UP FOR SNOW
ROUND TWO.

ROUND TWO STARTS UP LATE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVES OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INITIATES SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO PLAINS. THIS SNOW WILL ENTER THE FAR WESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE SPREADING AREA WIDE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. FOR THIS AREA 1-2 INCHES OF
STORM TOTAL SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH BY NOON SATURDAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL
BE RAISED FOR THE NORTHERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES STARTING
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH NOON SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING IN A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY TO PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
FOR THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH WHILE WE HOLD ONTO SNOW NORTH OF THE
CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ALOFT
CONTINUE TO WARM TO WHERE SNOW LOOKS UNLIKELY AREA WIDE AND THE
THREAT OF A LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX BECOMES MORE LIKELY. THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
A TENTH OF AN INCH.

AFTER THIS FIRST STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...A CLOSED LOW
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SRN CA COAST THIS WEEKEND. PNHDLS WILL BE IN SW
FLOW ALOFT WITH MODERATING TEMPS FORESSEN. ALSO...ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT FALLS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WIL LIKELY BE A
WINTRY MIX OF EITHER LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN...OR LIGHT SLEET. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL BE
PRESENT SUCH THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID.

THEN...A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND ITS ATTENDANT SFC COLD
FRONT IS SLATED TO IMPACT THE TX AND OK PNHDLS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT WINTER
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...
     SHERMAN.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

99/99







000
FXUS64 KAMA 280022 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
622 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
TERMINALS THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS AND VIS IN THE MVFR RANGE. NEXT
ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITHIN THIS AREA OF
SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO IFR. SNOW SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
TERMINALS BY AROUND 12-14Z SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WARM AIR ADVECTION
PROCESSES CAN RESULT IN A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS SUBTLE UPPER LIFT CAN GENERATE ADDITIONAL PRECIP
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST ATTM.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SNOW ROUND ONE HAS WRAPPED UP AND NOW ITS TIME TO GEAR UP FOR SNOW
ROUND TWO.

ROUND TWO STARTS UP LATE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVES OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INITIATES SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO PLAINS. THIS SNOW WILL ENTER THE FAR WESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE SPREADING AREA WIDE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. FOR THIS AREA 1-2 INCHES OF
STORM TOTAL SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH BY NOON SATURDAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL
BE RAISED FOR THE NORTHERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES STARTING
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH NOON SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING IN A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY TO PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
FOR THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH WHILE WE HOLD ONTO SNOW NORTH OF THE
CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ALOFT
CONTINUE TO WARM TO WHERE SNOW LOOKS UNLIKELY AREA WIDE AND THE
THREAT OF A LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX BECOMES MORE LIKELY. THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
A TENTH OF AN INCH.

AFTER THIS FIRST STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...A CLOSED LOW
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SRN CA COAST THIS WEEKEND. PNHDLS WILL BE IN SW
FLOW ALOFT WITH MODERATING TEMPS FORESSEN. ALSO...ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT FALLS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WIL LIKELY BE A
WINTRY MIX OF EITHER LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN...OR LIGHT SLEET. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL BE
PRESENT SUCH THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID.

THEN...A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND ITS ATTENDANT SFC COLD
FRONT IS SLATED TO IMPACT THE TX AND OK PNHDLS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT WINTER
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
     SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...
     HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...
     OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...SHERMAN.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
     SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

05






000
FXUS64 KAMA 280022 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
622 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
TERMINALS THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS AND VIS IN THE MVFR RANGE. NEXT
ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITHIN THIS AREA OF
SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO IFR. SNOW SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
TERMINALS BY AROUND 12-14Z SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WARM AIR ADVECTION
PROCESSES CAN RESULT IN A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS SUBTLE UPPER LIFT CAN GENERATE ADDITIONAL PRECIP
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST ATTM.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SNOW ROUND ONE HAS WRAPPED UP AND NOW ITS TIME TO GEAR UP FOR SNOW
ROUND TWO.

ROUND TWO STARTS UP LATE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVES OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INITIATES SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO PLAINS. THIS SNOW WILL ENTER THE FAR WESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE SPREADING AREA WIDE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. FOR THIS AREA 1-2 INCHES OF
STORM TOTAL SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH BY NOON SATURDAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL
BE RAISED FOR THE NORTHERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES STARTING
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH NOON SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING IN A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY TO PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
FOR THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH WHILE WE HOLD ONTO SNOW NORTH OF THE
CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ALOFT
CONTINUE TO WARM TO WHERE SNOW LOOKS UNLIKELY AREA WIDE AND THE
THREAT OF A LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX BECOMES MORE LIKELY. THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
A TENTH OF AN INCH.

AFTER THIS FIRST STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...A CLOSED LOW
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SRN CA COAST THIS WEEKEND. PNHDLS WILL BE IN SW
FLOW ALOFT WITH MODERATING TEMPS FORESSEN. ALSO...ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT FALLS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WIL LIKELY BE A
WINTRY MIX OF EITHER LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN...OR LIGHT SLEET. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL BE
PRESENT SUCH THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID.

THEN...A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND ITS ATTENDANT SFC COLD
FRONT IS SLATED TO IMPACT THE TX AND OK PNHDLS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT WINTER
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
     SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...
     HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...
     OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...SHERMAN.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
     SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

05







000
FXUS64 KAMA 272147
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
347 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SNOW ROUND ONE HAS WRAPPED UP AND NOW ITS TIME TO GEAR UP FOR SNOW
ROUND TWO.

ROUND TWO STARTS UP LATE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVES OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INITIATES SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO PLAINS. THIS SNOW WILL ENTER THE FAR WESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE SPREADING AREA WIDE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. FOR THIS AREA 1-2 INCHES OF
STORM TOTAL SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH BY NOON SATURDAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL
BE RAISED FOR THE NORTHERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES STARTING
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH NOON SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING IN A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY TO PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
FOR THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH WHILE WE HOLD ONTO SNOW NORTH OF THE
CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ALOFT
CONTINUE TO WARM TO WHERE SNOW LOOKS UNLIKELY AREA WIDE AND THE
THREAT OF A LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX BECOMES MORE LIKELY. THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
A TENTH OF AN INCH.

AFTER THIS FIRST STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...A CLOSED LOW
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SRN CA COAST THIS WEEKEND. PNHDLS WILL BE IN SW
FLOW ALOFT WITH MODERATING TEMPS FORESSEN. ALSO...ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT FALLS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WIL LIKELY BE A
WINTRY MIX OF EITHER LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN...OR LIGHT SLEET. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL BE
PRESENT SUCH THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID.

THEN...A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND ITS ATTENDANT SFC COLD
FRONT IS SLATED TO IMPACT THE TX AND OK PNHDLS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT WINTER
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                13  33  31  45  25 /  30  30  20  20  20
BEAVER OK                  15  30  25  35  23 /  60  80  30  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              13  32  27  33  21 /  60  30  20  20  30
BORGER TX                  15  33  32  42  26 /  40  40  20  20  20
BOYS RANCH TX              16  36  30  42  24 /  40  30  20  20  20
CANYON TX                  14  34  32  45  25 /  30  30  20  20  20
CLARENDON TX               15  30  27  45  27 /  30  30  20  20  20
DALHART TX                 14  35  29  36  23 /  50  30  20  20  20
GUYMON OK                  13  33  27  35  23 /  60  50  30  20  30
HEREFORD TX                14  37  31  47  26 /  30  30  20  10  20
LIPSCOMB TX                16  29  28  38  24 /  40  70  30  20  20
PAMPA TX                   14  30  27  40  25 /  40  40  20  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                17  30  27  43  28 /  30  50  30  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              17  32  30  45  29 /  30  40  30  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
     SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...
     HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...
     OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...SHERMAN.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
     SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 272147
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
347 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SNOW ROUND ONE HAS WRAPPED UP AND NOW ITS TIME TO GEAR UP FOR SNOW
ROUND TWO.

ROUND TWO STARTS UP LATE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVES OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INITIATES SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO PLAINS. THIS SNOW WILL ENTER THE FAR WESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE SPREADING AREA WIDE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. FOR THIS AREA 1-2 INCHES OF
STORM TOTAL SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH BY NOON SATURDAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL
BE RAISED FOR THE NORTHERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES STARTING
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH NOON SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING IN A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY TO PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
FOR THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH WHILE WE HOLD ONTO SNOW NORTH OF THE
CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ALOFT
CONTINUE TO WARM TO WHERE SNOW LOOKS UNLIKELY AREA WIDE AND THE
THREAT OF A LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX BECOMES MORE LIKELY. THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
A TENTH OF AN INCH.

AFTER THIS FIRST STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...A CLOSED LOW
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SRN CA COAST THIS WEEKEND. PNHDLS WILL BE IN SW
FLOW ALOFT WITH MODERATING TEMPS FORESSEN. ALSO...ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT FALLS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WIL LIKELY BE A
WINTRY MIX OF EITHER LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN...OR LIGHT SLEET. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL BE
PRESENT SUCH THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID.

THEN...A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND ITS ATTENDANT SFC COLD
FRONT IS SLATED TO IMPACT THE TX AND OK PNHDLS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT WINTER
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                13  33  31  45  25 /  30  30  20  20  20
BEAVER OK                  15  30  25  35  23 /  60  80  30  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              13  32  27  33  21 /  60  30  20  20  30
BORGER TX                  15  33  32  42  26 /  40  40  20  20  20
BOYS RANCH TX              16  36  30  42  24 /  40  30  20  20  20
CANYON TX                  14  34  32  45  25 /  30  30  20  20  20
CLARENDON TX               15  30  27  45  27 /  30  30  20  20  20
DALHART TX                 14  35  29  36  23 /  50  30  20  20  20
GUYMON OK                  13  33  27  35  23 /  60  50  30  20  30
HEREFORD TX                14  37  31  47  26 /  30  30  20  10  20
LIPSCOMB TX                16  29  28  38  24 /  40  70  30  20  20
PAMPA TX                   14  30  27  40  25 /  40  40  20  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                17  30  27  43  28 /  30  50  30  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              17  32  30  45  29 /  30  40  30  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
     SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...
     HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...
     OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...SHERMAN.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
     SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 272147
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
347 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SNOW ROUND ONE HAS WRAPPED UP AND NOW ITS TIME TO GEAR UP FOR SNOW
ROUND TWO.

ROUND TWO STARTS UP LATE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVES OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INITIATES SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO PLAINS. THIS SNOW WILL ENTER THE FAR WESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE SPREADING AREA WIDE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. FOR THIS AREA 1-2 INCHES OF
STORM TOTAL SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH BY NOON SATURDAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL
BE RAISED FOR THE NORTHERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES STARTING
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH NOON SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING IN A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY TO PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
FOR THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH WHILE WE HOLD ONTO SNOW NORTH OF THE
CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ALOFT
CONTINUE TO WARM TO WHERE SNOW LOOKS UNLIKELY AREA WIDE AND THE
THREAT OF A LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX BECOMES MORE LIKELY. THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
A TENTH OF AN INCH.

AFTER THIS FIRST STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...A CLOSED LOW
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SRN CA COAST THIS WEEKEND. PNHDLS WILL BE IN SW
FLOW ALOFT WITH MODERATING TEMPS FORESSEN. ALSO...ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT FALLS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WIL LIKELY BE A
WINTRY MIX OF EITHER LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN...OR LIGHT SLEET. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL BE
PRESENT SUCH THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID.

THEN...A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND ITS ATTENDANT SFC COLD
FRONT IS SLATED TO IMPACT THE TX AND OK PNHDLS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT WINTER
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                13  33  31  45  25 /  30  30  20  20  20
BEAVER OK                  15  30  25  35  23 /  60  80  30  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              13  32  27  33  21 /  60  30  20  20  30
BORGER TX                  15  33  32  42  26 /  40  40  20  20  20
BOYS RANCH TX              16  36  30  42  24 /  40  30  20  20  20
CANYON TX                  14  34  32  45  25 /  30  30  20  20  20
CLARENDON TX               15  30  27  45  27 /  30  30  20  20  20
DALHART TX                 14  35  29  36  23 /  50  30  20  20  20
GUYMON OK                  13  33  27  35  23 /  60  50  30  20  30
HEREFORD TX                14  37  31  47  26 /  30  30  20  10  20
LIPSCOMB TX                16  29  28  38  24 /  40  70  30  20  20
PAMPA TX                   14  30  27  40  25 /  40  40  20  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                17  30  27  43  28 /  30  50  30  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              17  32  30  45  29 /  30  40  30  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
     SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...
     HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...
     OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...SHERMAN.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
     SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 271714 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1114 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
ANOTHER TRICKY...LOW CONFIDENCE 18Z TAF CYCLE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW HAS
ALREADY MOVED EAST OF THE TERMINALS HOWEVER IFR VISIBILITIES ARE
PERSISTING AT KDHT AND KGUY. KAMA HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO SEE VISIBILITY
IMPROVEMENTS WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THIS
TAF ISSUANCE. GENERAL IDEA IS THAT VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
WHILE MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE NEXT ROUND OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO START LATER THIS EVENING FOR KDHT AND KGUY BEFORE
SPREADING TO KAMA AROUND 7Z. ONCE THIS NEXT ROUND BEGINS WE EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO DEGRADE QUICKLY BACK TO IFR AND EVEN LIFR AS HEAVIER
SNOW MOVES OVER THE TERMINAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 920 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

UPDATE...
CANCELED WIND CHILL ADVISORY EARLY AS VALUES ARE ABOVE THRESHOLDS
OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS ON TRACK. WE ARE SEEING THE BULK OF
THE ACCUMULATIONS CURRENTLY AND CONTINUE TO EXPECTED LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. UPDATES TEXT PRODUCTS ALREADY
SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IS SHAPING UP MUCH AS PLANNED...WITH VERY FEW CHANGES
NEEDED WITH THIS ISSUANCE.  COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND
ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS ALLOWING FOR DEEP UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES.  ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS IMPROVED MARKEDLY DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS...AS EVIDENCED BY VEERING WINDS SAMPLED BY KAMA VAD
WIND PROFILE DATA.  STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO AT THIS TIME WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW...PARTICULARLY
THIS MORNING.  CONFIGURATION OF WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS HAS BEEN
LEFT UNCHANGED...WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM
IN WESTERN SECTIONS...AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW FOR ALL
SECTIONS OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TODAY.

UPSLOPE FLOW DIMINISHES TONIGHT...BUT ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE LATE TONIGHT COULD BRING ANOTHER QUICK INCH OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS.  LOW SNOW POPS CONTINUE SATURDAY IN
MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME.  WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
OR SLEET SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.  FREEZING OR FROZEN
PRECIPITATION STILL POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN LATER PERIODS...WITH GFS CALLING
FOR A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN.  OUR FORECAST CALLS FOR A
RESPECTABLE WARMUP ON TUESDAY AS DRY WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS AHEAD
OF NEXT COLD FRONT.  LOW SNOW POPS RETAINED FOR MOST AREAS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.

COCKRELL

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY 18Z. IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN THE HEAVIER SNOW THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF. MVFR
CIGS THEN LOOK TO PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. SOME FLURRIES MAY
LINGER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OR
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO VSBYS ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
DETERIORATE TO IFR LEVELS AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...
     DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...
     LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...TEXAS.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$

14/02







000
FXUS64 KAMA 271714 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1114 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
ANOTHER TRICKY...LOW CONFIDENCE 18Z TAF CYCLE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW HAS
ALREADY MOVED EAST OF THE TERMINALS HOWEVER IFR VISIBILITIES ARE
PERSISTING AT KDHT AND KGUY. KAMA HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO SEE VISIBILITY
IMPROVEMENTS WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THIS
TAF ISSUANCE. GENERAL IDEA IS THAT VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
WHILE MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE NEXT ROUND OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO START LATER THIS EVENING FOR KDHT AND KGUY BEFORE
SPREADING TO KAMA AROUND 7Z. ONCE THIS NEXT ROUND BEGINS WE EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO DEGRADE QUICKLY BACK TO IFR AND EVEN LIFR AS HEAVIER
SNOW MOVES OVER THE TERMINAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 920 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

UPDATE...
CANCELED WIND CHILL ADVISORY EARLY AS VALUES ARE ABOVE THRESHOLDS
OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS ON TRACK. WE ARE SEEING THE BULK OF
THE ACCUMULATIONS CURRENTLY AND CONTINUE TO EXPECTED LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. UPDATES TEXT PRODUCTS ALREADY
SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IS SHAPING UP MUCH AS PLANNED...WITH VERY FEW CHANGES
NEEDED WITH THIS ISSUANCE.  COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND
ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS ALLOWING FOR DEEP UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES.  ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS IMPROVED MARKEDLY DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS...AS EVIDENCED BY VEERING WINDS SAMPLED BY KAMA VAD
WIND PROFILE DATA.  STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO AT THIS TIME WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW...PARTICULARLY
THIS MORNING.  CONFIGURATION OF WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS HAS BEEN
LEFT UNCHANGED...WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM
IN WESTERN SECTIONS...AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW FOR ALL
SECTIONS OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TODAY.

UPSLOPE FLOW DIMINISHES TONIGHT...BUT ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE LATE TONIGHT COULD BRING ANOTHER QUICK INCH OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS.  LOW SNOW POPS CONTINUE SATURDAY IN
MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME.  WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
OR SLEET SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.  FREEZING OR FROZEN
PRECIPITATION STILL POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN LATER PERIODS...WITH GFS CALLING
FOR A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN.  OUR FORECAST CALLS FOR A
RESPECTABLE WARMUP ON TUESDAY AS DRY WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS AHEAD
OF NEXT COLD FRONT.  LOW SNOW POPS RETAINED FOR MOST AREAS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.

COCKRELL

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY 18Z. IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN THE HEAVIER SNOW THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF. MVFR
CIGS THEN LOOK TO PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. SOME FLURRIES MAY
LINGER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OR
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO VSBYS ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
DETERIORATE TO IFR LEVELS AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...
     DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...
     LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...TEXAS.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$

14/02






000
FXUS64 KAMA 271714 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1114 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
ANOTHER TRICKY...LOW CONFIDENCE 18Z TAF CYCLE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW HAS
ALREADY MOVED EAST OF THE TERMINALS HOWEVER IFR VISIBILITIES ARE
PERSISTING AT KDHT AND KGUY. KAMA HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO SEE VISIBILITY
IMPROVEMENTS WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THIS
TAF ISSUANCE. GENERAL IDEA IS THAT VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
WHILE MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE NEXT ROUND OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO START LATER THIS EVENING FOR KDHT AND KGUY BEFORE
SPREADING TO KAMA AROUND 7Z. ONCE THIS NEXT ROUND BEGINS WE EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO DEGRADE QUICKLY BACK TO IFR AND EVEN LIFR AS HEAVIER
SNOW MOVES OVER THE TERMINAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 920 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

UPDATE...
CANCELED WIND CHILL ADVISORY EARLY AS VALUES ARE ABOVE THRESHOLDS
OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS ON TRACK. WE ARE SEEING THE BULK OF
THE ACCUMULATIONS CURRENTLY AND CONTINUE TO EXPECTED LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. UPDATES TEXT PRODUCTS ALREADY
SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IS SHAPING UP MUCH AS PLANNED...WITH VERY FEW CHANGES
NEEDED WITH THIS ISSUANCE.  COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND
ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS ALLOWING FOR DEEP UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES.  ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS IMPROVED MARKEDLY DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS...AS EVIDENCED BY VEERING WINDS SAMPLED BY KAMA VAD
WIND PROFILE DATA.  STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO AT THIS TIME WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW...PARTICULARLY
THIS MORNING.  CONFIGURATION OF WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS HAS BEEN
LEFT UNCHANGED...WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM
IN WESTERN SECTIONS...AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW FOR ALL
SECTIONS OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TODAY.

UPSLOPE FLOW DIMINISHES TONIGHT...BUT ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE LATE TONIGHT COULD BRING ANOTHER QUICK INCH OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS.  LOW SNOW POPS CONTINUE SATURDAY IN
MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME.  WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
OR SLEET SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.  FREEZING OR FROZEN
PRECIPITATION STILL POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN LATER PERIODS...WITH GFS CALLING
FOR A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN.  OUR FORECAST CALLS FOR A
RESPECTABLE WARMUP ON TUESDAY AS DRY WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS AHEAD
OF NEXT COLD FRONT.  LOW SNOW POPS RETAINED FOR MOST AREAS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.

COCKRELL

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY 18Z. IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN THE HEAVIER SNOW THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF. MVFR
CIGS THEN LOOK TO PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. SOME FLURRIES MAY
LINGER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OR
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO VSBYS ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
DETERIORATE TO IFR LEVELS AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...
     DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...
     LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...TEXAS.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$

14/02







000
FXUS64 KAMA 271714 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1114 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
ANOTHER TRICKY...LOW CONFIDENCE 18Z TAF CYCLE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW HAS
ALREADY MOVED EAST OF THE TERMINALS HOWEVER IFR VISIBILITIES ARE
PERSISTING AT KDHT AND KGUY. KAMA HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO SEE VISIBILITY
IMPROVEMENTS WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THIS
TAF ISSUANCE. GENERAL IDEA IS THAT VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
WHILE MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE NEXT ROUND OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO START LATER THIS EVENING FOR KDHT AND KGUY BEFORE
SPREADING TO KAMA AROUND 7Z. ONCE THIS NEXT ROUND BEGINS WE EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO DEGRADE QUICKLY BACK TO IFR AND EVEN LIFR AS HEAVIER
SNOW MOVES OVER THE TERMINAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 920 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

UPDATE...
CANCELED WIND CHILL ADVISORY EARLY AS VALUES ARE ABOVE THRESHOLDS
OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS ON TRACK. WE ARE SEEING THE BULK OF
THE ACCUMULATIONS CURRENTLY AND CONTINUE TO EXPECTED LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. UPDATES TEXT PRODUCTS ALREADY
SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IS SHAPING UP MUCH AS PLANNED...WITH VERY FEW CHANGES
NEEDED WITH THIS ISSUANCE.  COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND
ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS ALLOWING FOR DEEP UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES.  ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS IMPROVED MARKEDLY DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS...AS EVIDENCED BY VEERING WINDS SAMPLED BY KAMA VAD
WIND PROFILE DATA.  STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO AT THIS TIME WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW...PARTICULARLY
THIS MORNING.  CONFIGURATION OF WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS HAS BEEN
LEFT UNCHANGED...WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM
IN WESTERN SECTIONS...AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW FOR ALL
SECTIONS OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TODAY.

UPSLOPE FLOW DIMINISHES TONIGHT...BUT ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE LATE TONIGHT COULD BRING ANOTHER QUICK INCH OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS.  LOW SNOW POPS CONTINUE SATURDAY IN
MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME.  WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
OR SLEET SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.  FREEZING OR FROZEN
PRECIPITATION STILL POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN LATER PERIODS...WITH GFS CALLING
FOR A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN.  OUR FORECAST CALLS FOR A
RESPECTABLE WARMUP ON TUESDAY AS DRY WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS AHEAD
OF NEXT COLD FRONT.  LOW SNOW POPS RETAINED FOR MOST AREAS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.

COCKRELL

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY 18Z. IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN THE HEAVIER SNOW THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF. MVFR
CIGS THEN LOOK TO PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. SOME FLURRIES MAY
LINGER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OR
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO VSBYS ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
DETERIORATE TO IFR LEVELS AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...
     DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...
     LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...TEXAS.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$

14/02






000
FXUS64 KAMA 271520 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
920 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
CANCELED WIND CHILL ADVISORY EARLY AS VALUES ARE ABOVE THRESHOLDS
OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS ON TRACK. WE ARE SEEING THE BULK OF
THE ACCUMULATIONS CURRENTLY AND CONTINUE TO EXPECTED LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. UPDATES TEXT PRODUCTS ALREADY
SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IS SHAPING UP MUCH AS PLANNED...WITH VERY FEW CHANGES
NEEDED WITH THIS ISSUANCE.  COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND
ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS ALLOWING FOR DEEP UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES.  ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS IMPROVED MARKEDLY DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS...AS EVIDENCED BY VEERING WINDS SAMPLED BY KAMA VAD
WIND PROFILE DATA.  STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO AT THIS TIME WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW...PARTICULARLY
THIS MORNING.  CONFIGURATION OF WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS HAS BEEN
LEFT UNCHANGED...WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM
IN WESTERN SECTIONS...AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW FOR ALL
SECTIONS OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TODAY.

UPSLOPE FLOW DIMINISHES TONIGHT...BUT ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE LATE TONIGHT COULD BRING ANOTHER QUICK INCH OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS.  LOW SNOW POPS CONTINUE SATURDAY IN
MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME.  WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
OR SLEET SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.  FREEZING OR FROZEN
PRECIPITATION STILL POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN LATER PERIODS...WITH GFS CALLING
FOR A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN.  OUR FORECAST CALLS FOR A
RESPECTABLE WARMUP ON TUESDAY AS DRY WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS AHEAD
OF NEXT COLD FRONT.  LOW SNOW POPS RETAINED FOR MOST AREAS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.

COCKRELL

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY 18Z. IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN THE HEAVIER SNOW THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF. MVFR
CIGS THEN LOOK TO PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. SOME FLURRIES MAY
LINGER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OR
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO VSBYS ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
DETERIORATE TO IFR LEVELS AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...
     DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...
     LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...TEXAS.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$

14/02






000
FXUS64 KAMA 271520 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
920 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
CANCELED WIND CHILL ADVISORY EARLY AS VALUES ARE ABOVE THRESHOLDS
OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS ON TRACK. WE ARE SEEING THE BULK OF
THE ACCUMULATIONS CURRENTLY AND CONTINUE TO EXPECTED LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. UPDATES TEXT PRODUCTS ALREADY
SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IS SHAPING UP MUCH AS PLANNED...WITH VERY FEW CHANGES
NEEDED WITH THIS ISSUANCE.  COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND
ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS ALLOWING FOR DEEP UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES.  ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS IMPROVED MARKEDLY DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS...AS EVIDENCED BY VEERING WINDS SAMPLED BY KAMA VAD
WIND PROFILE DATA.  STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO AT THIS TIME WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW...PARTICULARLY
THIS MORNING.  CONFIGURATION OF WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS HAS BEEN
LEFT UNCHANGED...WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM
IN WESTERN SECTIONS...AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW FOR ALL
SECTIONS OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TODAY.

UPSLOPE FLOW DIMINISHES TONIGHT...BUT ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE LATE TONIGHT COULD BRING ANOTHER QUICK INCH OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS.  LOW SNOW POPS CONTINUE SATURDAY IN
MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME.  WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
OR SLEET SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.  FREEZING OR FROZEN
PRECIPITATION STILL POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN LATER PERIODS...WITH GFS CALLING
FOR A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN.  OUR FORECAST CALLS FOR A
RESPECTABLE WARMUP ON TUESDAY AS DRY WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS AHEAD
OF NEXT COLD FRONT.  LOW SNOW POPS RETAINED FOR MOST AREAS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.

COCKRELL

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY 18Z. IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN THE HEAVIER SNOW THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF. MVFR
CIGS THEN LOOK TO PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. SOME FLURRIES MAY
LINGER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OR
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO VSBYS ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
DETERIORATE TO IFR LEVELS AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...
     DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...
     LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...TEXAS.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$

14/02







000
FXUS64 KAMA 271520 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
920 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
CANCELED WIND CHILL ADVISORY EARLY AS VALUES ARE ABOVE THRESHOLDS
OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS ON TRACK. WE ARE SEEING THE BULK OF
THE ACCUMULATIONS CURRENTLY AND CONTINUE TO EXPECTED LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. UPDATES TEXT PRODUCTS ALREADY
SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IS SHAPING UP MUCH AS PLANNED...WITH VERY FEW CHANGES
NEEDED WITH THIS ISSUANCE.  COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND
ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS ALLOWING FOR DEEP UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES.  ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS IMPROVED MARKEDLY DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS...AS EVIDENCED BY VEERING WINDS SAMPLED BY KAMA VAD
WIND PROFILE DATA.  STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO AT THIS TIME WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW...PARTICULARLY
THIS MORNING.  CONFIGURATION OF WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS HAS BEEN
LEFT UNCHANGED...WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM
IN WESTERN SECTIONS...AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW FOR ALL
SECTIONS OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TODAY.

UPSLOPE FLOW DIMINISHES TONIGHT...BUT ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE LATE TONIGHT COULD BRING ANOTHER QUICK INCH OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS.  LOW SNOW POPS CONTINUE SATURDAY IN
MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME.  WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
OR SLEET SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.  FREEZING OR FROZEN
PRECIPITATION STILL POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN LATER PERIODS...WITH GFS CALLING
FOR A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN.  OUR FORECAST CALLS FOR A
RESPECTABLE WARMUP ON TUESDAY AS DRY WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS AHEAD
OF NEXT COLD FRONT.  LOW SNOW POPS RETAINED FOR MOST AREAS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.

COCKRELL

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY 18Z. IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN THE HEAVIER SNOW THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF. MVFR
CIGS THEN LOOK TO PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. SOME FLURRIES MAY
LINGER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OR
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO VSBYS ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
DETERIORATE TO IFR LEVELS AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...
     DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...
     LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...TEXAS.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$

14/02






000
FXUS64 KAMA 271155
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
554 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IS SHAPING UP MUCH AS PLANNED...WITH VERY FEW CHANGES
NEEDED WITH THIS ISSUANCE.  COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND
ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS ALLOWING FOR DEEP UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES.  ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS IMPROVED MARKEDLY DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS...AS EVIDENCED BY VEERING WINDS SAMPLED BY KAMA VAD
WIND PROFILE DATA.  STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO AT THIS TIME WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW...PARTICULARLY
THIS MORNING.  CONFIGURATION OF WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS HAS BEEN
LEFT UNCHANGED...WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM
IN WESTERN SECTIONS...AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW FOR ALL
SECTIONS OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TODAY.

UPSLOPE FLOW DIMINISHES TONIGHT...BUT ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE LATE TONIGHT COULD BRING ANOTHER QUICK INCH OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS.  LOW SNOW POPS CONTINUE SATURDAY IN
MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME.  WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
OR SLEET SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.  FREEZING OR FROZEN
PRECIPITATION STILL POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN LATER PERIODS...WITH GFS CALLING
FOR A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN.  OUR FORECAST CALLS FOR A
RESPECTABLE WARMUP ON TUESDAY AS DRY WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS AHEAD
OF NEXT COLD FRONT.  LOW SNOW POPS RETAINED FOR MOST AREAS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.

COCKRELL

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY 18Z. IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN THE HEAVIER SNOW THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF. MVFR
CIGS THEN LOOK TO PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. SOME FLURRIES MAY
LINGER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OR
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO VSBYS ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
DETERIORATE TO IFR LEVELS AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                18  14  33  30  43 /  90  30  30  20  20
BEAVER OK                  21  16  30  27  34 /  70  50  70  30  20
BOISE CITY OK              19  14  33  25  31 /  70  50  30  20  20
BORGER TX                  20  16  33  31  40 /  80  40  40  20  20
BOYS RANCH TX              21  17  36  29  42 /  80  40  30  20  10
CANYON TX                  19  15  34  31  45 /  90  30  30  20  20
CLARENDON TX               20  16  31  29  44 /  90  30  30  20  20
DALHART TX                 20  15  34  27  36 /  70  40  30  20  20
GUYMON OK                  19  14  33  27  34 /  70  50  50  30  20
HEREFORD TX                20  15  36  31  46 /  90  30  30  20  10
LIPSCOMB TX                21  17  30  28  37 /  80  40  70  30  20
PAMPA TX                   19  15  31  29  40 /  90  40  40  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                21  18  31  29  42 /  90  30  60  30  20
WELLINGTON TX              22  18  32  30  45 /  90  30  50  30  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...
     DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...
     LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...
     HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...
     RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...TEXAS.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

08/03






000
FXUS64 KAMA 271155
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
554 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IS SHAPING UP MUCH AS PLANNED...WITH VERY FEW CHANGES
NEEDED WITH THIS ISSUANCE.  COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND
ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS ALLOWING FOR DEEP UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES.  ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS IMPROVED MARKEDLY DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS...AS EVIDENCED BY VEERING WINDS SAMPLED BY KAMA VAD
WIND PROFILE DATA.  STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO AT THIS TIME WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW...PARTICULARLY
THIS MORNING.  CONFIGURATION OF WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS HAS BEEN
LEFT UNCHANGED...WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM
IN WESTERN SECTIONS...AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW FOR ALL
SECTIONS OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TODAY.

UPSLOPE FLOW DIMINISHES TONIGHT...BUT ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE LATE TONIGHT COULD BRING ANOTHER QUICK INCH OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS.  LOW SNOW POPS CONTINUE SATURDAY IN
MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME.  WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
OR SLEET SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.  FREEZING OR FROZEN
PRECIPITATION STILL POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN LATER PERIODS...WITH GFS CALLING
FOR A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN.  OUR FORECAST CALLS FOR A
RESPECTABLE WARMUP ON TUESDAY AS DRY WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS AHEAD
OF NEXT COLD FRONT.  LOW SNOW POPS RETAINED FOR MOST AREAS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.

COCKRELL

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY 18Z. IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN THE HEAVIER SNOW THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF. MVFR
CIGS THEN LOOK TO PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. SOME FLURRIES MAY
LINGER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OR
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO VSBYS ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
DETERIORATE TO IFR LEVELS AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                18  14  33  30  43 /  90  30  30  20  20
BEAVER OK                  21  16  30  27  34 /  70  50  70  30  20
BOISE CITY OK              19  14  33  25  31 /  70  50  30  20  20
BORGER TX                  20  16  33  31  40 /  80  40  40  20  20
BOYS RANCH TX              21  17  36  29  42 /  80  40  30  20  10
CANYON TX                  19  15  34  31  45 /  90  30  30  20  20
CLARENDON TX               20  16  31  29  44 /  90  30  30  20  20
DALHART TX                 20  15  34  27  36 /  70  40  30  20  20
GUYMON OK                  19  14  33  27  34 /  70  50  50  30  20
HEREFORD TX                20  15  36  31  46 /  90  30  30  20  10
LIPSCOMB TX                21  17  30  28  37 /  80  40  70  30  20
PAMPA TX                   19  15  31  29  40 /  90  40  40  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                21  18  31  29  42 /  90  30  60  30  20
WELLINGTON TX              22  18  32  30  45 /  90  30  50  30  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...
     DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...
     LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...
     HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...
     RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...TEXAS.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

08/03





000
FXUS64 KAMA 270525 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1125 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/ COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST STILL EXPECTED FOR THE TERMINALS
AS AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WINTER WEATHER IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE
AREA.

CURRENT DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WITH ADDITIONAL
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW IN SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
EXPECT THAT THIS SNOW WILL PROPOGATE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH MODERATE
SNOW OCCURRING AT TIMES. EXPECT FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO DETEORIATE TO
MVFR THEN INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AS SNOW INCREASES IN INTENSITY.
POSSIBLE FOR LIFR CONDITIONS AS WELL BUT HAVE LEFT THIS MENTION OUT
OF THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE AS CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW. LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...BUT EXPECT SNOW TO
DECREASE IN INTENSITY AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST THROUGH THE VALID TAF FORECAST
PERIOD WITH ACTIVE PERIOD OF WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED.

AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE SNOW TO THE AREA TONIGHT.
BEFORE THEN...AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCASIONALLY IMPACT THE KDHT
TERMINAL THIS EVENING...BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE MVFR
CATEGORY. THIS SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE KAMA AND
KGUY TERMINALS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING. HOWEVER FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ROUGHLY AROUND 06-10Z WITH THIS NEXT
ROUND OF SNOWFALL MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THIS SNOW CAN BE
MODERATE AT TIMES LEADING TO CIGS/VSBYS TO LOWER TO THE IFR CATEGORY
AND POSSIBLY VLIFR ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS STILL LOW ATTM.
FURTHER AMENDMENTS TO CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS THIS
EVENT UNFOLDS. SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH IT
WILL BE TAPERING OFF BY THEN.

CLK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SNOW RETURNING TO THE AREA STARTING LATE TONIGHT...THE
ADVERTISED SNOW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY REMAINS ON TRACK.

WHEN AND WHERE...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
BEFORE SPREADING EASTWARD. BY 6 AM FRIDAY MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE
EXPERIENCING SNOW. THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW WILL BE OVER BY NOON
WITH A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY
EVENING. ALL OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES WILL HAVE A
SIZABLE CHANCE TO SEE SNOW WITH THIS ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIP.

WHAT & HOW MUCH...THE ARCTIC AIRMASS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WILL
CONFINE PRECIPITATION TYPE TO ALL SNOW. STORM TOTALS BY FRIDAY
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS APPROACHING 6 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. HI-RES MODELS HAVE SHOWN THE POTENTIAL
FOR A HEAVY SNOW-BAND TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE MAIN SURGE OF SNOW. THIS
BAND IS LOOKS TO SET-UP ALONG AND SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE I-40
CORRIDOR. THIS BAND WOULD HAVE THE ABILITY TO PRODUCE A QUICK COUPLE
OF INCHES ON TOP OF WHAT THE MAIN SURGE BRINGS.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE HIGHER WITH RESPECT TO LOCATIONS, P-TYPE,
AND AMOUNTS WITH A SLIGHT UNCERTAINTY ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SNOW-BAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA.

AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE PANHANDLES, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE
PANHANDLES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED AND MESSY SATURDAY NIGHT THRU
MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SRN CA
COAST AND EVENTUALLY EJECTS ENEWD TOWARDS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY
MONDAY IN A MUCH WEAKENED STATE. THE SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT WINTRY MIX
SATURDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING ALL LIGHT RAIN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. GRIDS HAVE BEEN COMPILED IN THAT FASHION...ALTHOUGH
POPS ARE NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH DURG THIS TIME PERIOD...GENERALLY IN
THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE AT ANY ONE LOCATION. TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY
AREAWIDE.

THE NEXT COLD UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED STRONG SFC COLD
FRONT APPEARS TO IMPACT THE TX AND OK PNHDLS TUE NIGHT THRU WED
NIGHT...WITH COLDER TEMPS NEXT WED AND THURS. CONTINUED WITH SLGT CHC
POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT.

MORRIS/ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...
     HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...
     OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...OLDHAM...POTTER...
     RANDALL.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...
     HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...
     RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...TEXAS.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

05







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