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000
FXUS64 KAMA 221739 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1239 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.AVIATION...
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LINGER AT KDHT FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING WITH ANY CUMULUS LAYERS ABOVE 3000 FEET. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT. ANY
ISOLATED OR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING HAVE A LOW
LIKELIHOOD OF IMPACTING ANY OF THE TERMINALS DIRECTLY...SO MENTION OF
SUCH IS NOT INCLUDED IN FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. SURFACE WINDS TURN
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LATE TONIGHT AND BRING A MOIST FETCH CREATING MVFR
CEILINGS AT KDHT AND KAMA BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z TUESDAY. KGUY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN CLOSE TO THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THIS LOW CLOUD LAYER. FUTURE
SHIFTS WILL MONITOR AND ADD MVFR CEILINGS IF LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE
INCREASES.

COCKRELL/BEAT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA.
THEY HAVE A CHANCE TO IMPACT KDHT/KAMA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT
WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT AT THIS TIME AS CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST
THEY WILL MISS THE TERMINALS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE PRESENT AT KAMA/KDHT
AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH MORNING HOURS. SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRY AND MOVE IN FROM NEW MEXICO LATER
TODAY, BEST CHANCES TO IMPACT KDHT, BUT WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF TAFS AT
THIS POINT SINCE CHANCES ARE LOW. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAY
BEFORE DYING OFF AFTER SUNSET.

MOULTON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SHOWERS THAT WERE MOVING OFF TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST LOOK TO
DOUBLE BACK AROUND AND HAVE A CHANCE TO INVADE THE WESTERN TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. IF THESE STORMS ARE ABLE TO HOLD
TOGETHER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PANHANDLES HAVE A CHANCE TO PICK UP
A LITTLE PRECIP SINCE THEY MISSED OUT ON IT YESTERDAY. LOW CLOUDS
ARE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THOSE SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE. AT THIS POINT THINK LOW CLOUDS COULD STICK
AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TILL NOONISH. DEPENDING ON HOW LONG
THE CLOUDS STICK AROUND WILL AFFECT TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND AT THIS POINT HAVE THE SOUTHWEST ONLY REACHING THE
LOWER 70S WHILE PLACES IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE SHOULD REACH NEAR
80 TODAY.

IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE TROUGH THAT SHOULD SET UP IN NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO THERE IS A CHANCE THAT STORMS COULD FORM UP THAT WAY AND MAKE
A RUN TOWARDS THE PANHANDLES. BUT AS THE STORY HAS BEEN WITH STORMS
THIS TIME OF YEAR THE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIMITED AND
SHOULD PROHIBIT ANY OF THE STORMS FROM BECOMING SEVERE. ON TUESDAY
ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
NORTHEAST NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH, BUT AT THIS TIME THINK THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE UP INTO KANSAS AND THE MAIN BODY OF OKLAHOMA.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE MOST PEOPLES BEST CHANCES TO SEE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS UPCOMING WEEK. IF STORMS DO FORM THEY HAVE A
CHANCE OF BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500
J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE AVERAGE OF 20-30 KTS ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE STORMS SHOULD BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO ANY STORMS
THAT DO FORM SHOULD ONLY LAST INTO THE EARLY NIGHT TIME HOURS.

THINGS GET A BIT INTERESTING IN THE LONG TERM... MOST MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT OF CUTTING OFF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND START TO RETROGRADE IT BACK
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS COULD BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND BUT AT THIS POINT WILL
TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH WITH A OUT OF THE ORDINARY SITUATION
LIKE THIS. AFTER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK MODELS BRING IN A DEEPER
LOW AND WITH IT A CHANCE OF RAIN JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

MOULTON

FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/08








000
FXUS64 KAMA 221739 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1239 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.AVIATION...
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LINGER AT KDHT FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING WITH ANY CUMULUS LAYERS ABOVE 3000 FEET. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT. ANY
ISOLATED OR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING HAVE A LOW
LIKELIHOOD OF IMPACTING ANY OF THE TERMINALS DIRECTLY...SO MENTION OF
SUCH IS NOT INCLUDED IN FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. SURFACE WINDS TURN
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LATE TONIGHT AND BRING A MOIST FETCH CREATING MVFR
CEILINGS AT KDHT AND KAMA BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z TUESDAY. KGUY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN CLOSE TO THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THIS LOW CLOUD LAYER. FUTURE
SHIFTS WILL MONITOR AND ADD MVFR CEILINGS IF LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE
INCREASES.

COCKRELL/BEAT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA.
THEY HAVE A CHANCE TO IMPACT KDHT/KAMA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT
WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT AT THIS TIME AS CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST
THEY WILL MISS THE TERMINALS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE PRESENT AT KAMA/KDHT
AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH MORNING HOURS. SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRY AND MOVE IN FROM NEW MEXICO LATER
TODAY, BEST CHANCES TO IMPACT KDHT, BUT WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF TAFS AT
THIS POINT SINCE CHANCES ARE LOW. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAY
BEFORE DYING OFF AFTER SUNSET.

MOULTON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SHOWERS THAT WERE MOVING OFF TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST LOOK TO
DOUBLE BACK AROUND AND HAVE A CHANCE TO INVADE THE WESTERN TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. IF THESE STORMS ARE ABLE TO HOLD
TOGETHER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PANHANDLES HAVE A CHANCE TO PICK UP
A LITTLE PRECIP SINCE THEY MISSED OUT ON IT YESTERDAY. LOW CLOUDS
ARE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THOSE SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE. AT THIS POINT THINK LOW CLOUDS COULD STICK
AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TILL NOONISH. DEPENDING ON HOW LONG
THE CLOUDS STICK AROUND WILL AFFECT TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND AT THIS POINT HAVE THE SOUTHWEST ONLY REACHING THE
LOWER 70S WHILE PLACES IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE SHOULD REACH NEAR
80 TODAY.

IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE TROUGH THAT SHOULD SET UP IN NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO THERE IS A CHANCE THAT STORMS COULD FORM UP THAT WAY AND MAKE
A RUN TOWARDS THE PANHANDLES. BUT AS THE STORY HAS BEEN WITH STORMS
THIS TIME OF YEAR THE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIMITED AND
SHOULD PROHIBIT ANY OF THE STORMS FROM BECOMING SEVERE. ON TUESDAY
ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
NORTHEAST NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH, BUT AT THIS TIME THINK THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE UP INTO KANSAS AND THE MAIN BODY OF OKLAHOMA.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE MOST PEOPLES BEST CHANCES TO SEE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS UPCOMING WEEK. IF STORMS DO FORM THEY HAVE A
CHANCE OF BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500
J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE AVERAGE OF 20-30 KTS ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE STORMS SHOULD BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO ANY STORMS
THAT DO FORM SHOULD ONLY LAST INTO THE EARLY NIGHT TIME HOURS.

THINGS GET A BIT INTERESTING IN THE LONG TERM... MOST MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT OF CUTTING OFF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND START TO RETROGRADE IT BACK
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS COULD BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND BUT AT THIS POINT WILL
TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH WITH A OUT OF THE ORDINARY SITUATION
LIKE THIS. AFTER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK MODELS BRING IN A DEEPER
LOW AND WITH IT A CHANCE OF RAIN JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

MOULTON

FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/08







000
FXUS64 KAMA 221108 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
608 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA.
THEY HAVE A CHANCE TO IMPACT KDHT/KAMA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT
WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT AT THIS TIME AS CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST
THEY WILL MISS THE TERMINALS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE PRESENT AT KAMA/KDHT
AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH MORNING HOURS. SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRY AND MOVE IN FROM NEW MEXICO LATER
TODAY, BEST CHANCES TO IMPACT KDHT, BUT WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF TAFS AT
THIS POINT SINCE CHANCES ARE LOW. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAY
BEFORE DYING OFF AFTER SUNSET.

MOULTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SHOWERS THAT WERE MOVING OFF TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST LOOK TO
DOUBLE BACK AROUND AND HAVE A CHANCE TO INVADE THE WESTERN TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. IF THESE STORMS ARE ABLE TO HOLD
TOGETHER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PANHANDLES HAVE A CHANCE TO PICK UP
A LITTLE PRECIP SINCE THEY MISSED OUT ON IT YESTERDAY. LOW CLOUDS
ARE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THOSE SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE. AT THIS POINT THINK LOW CLOUDS COULD STICK
AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TILL NOONISH. DEPENDING ON HOW LONG
THE CLOUDS STICK AROUND WILL AFFECT TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND AT THIS POINT HAVE THE SOUTHWEST ONLY REACHING THE
LOWER 70S WHILE PLACES IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE SHOULD REACH NEAR
80 TODAY.

IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE TROUGH THAT SHOULD SET UP IN NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO THERE IS A CHANCE THAT STORMS COULD FORM UP THAT WAY AND MAKE
A RUN TOWARDS THE PANHANDLES. BUT AS THE STORY HAS BEEN WITH STORMS
THIS TIME OF YEAR THE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIMITED AND
SHOULD PROHIBIT ANY OF THE STORMS FROM BECOMING SEVERE. ON TUESDAY
ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
NORTHEAST NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH, BUT AT THIS TIME THINK THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE UP INTO KANSAS AND THE MAIN BODY OF OKLAHOMA.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE MOST PEOPLES BEST CHANCES TO SEE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS UPCOMING WEEK. IF STORMS DO FORM THEY HAVE A
CHANCE OF BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500
J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE AVERAGE OF 20-30 KTS ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE STORMS SHOULD BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO ANY STORMS
THAT DO FORM SHOULD ONLY LAST INTO THE EARLY NIGHT TIME HOURS.

THINGS GET A BIT INTERESTING IN THE LONG TERM... MOST MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT OF CUTTING OFF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND START TO RETROGRADE IT BACK
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS COULD BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND BUT AT THIS POINT WILL
TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH WITH A OUT OF THE ORDINARY SITUATION
LIKE THIS. AFTER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK MODELS BRING IN A DEEPER
LOW AND WITH IT A CHANCE OF RAIN JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

MOULTON

FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

19/11






000
FXUS64 KAMA 221108 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
608 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA.
THEY HAVE A CHANCE TO IMPACT KDHT/KAMA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT
WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT AT THIS TIME AS CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST
THEY WILL MISS THE TERMINALS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE PRESENT AT KAMA/KDHT
AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH MORNING HOURS. SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRY AND MOVE IN FROM NEW MEXICO LATER
TODAY, BEST CHANCES TO IMPACT KDHT, BUT WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF TAFS AT
THIS POINT SINCE CHANCES ARE LOW. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAY
BEFORE DYING OFF AFTER SUNSET.

MOULTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SHOWERS THAT WERE MOVING OFF TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST LOOK TO
DOUBLE BACK AROUND AND HAVE A CHANCE TO INVADE THE WESTERN TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. IF THESE STORMS ARE ABLE TO HOLD
TOGETHER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PANHANDLES HAVE A CHANCE TO PICK UP
A LITTLE PRECIP SINCE THEY MISSED OUT ON IT YESTERDAY. LOW CLOUDS
ARE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THOSE SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE. AT THIS POINT THINK LOW CLOUDS COULD STICK
AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TILL NOONISH. DEPENDING ON HOW LONG
THE CLOUDS STICK AROUND WILL AFFECT TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND AT THIS POINT HAVE THE SOUTHWEST ONLY REACHING THE
LOWER 70S WHILE PLACES IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE SHOULD REACH NEAR
80 TODAY.

IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE TROUGH THAT SHOULD SET UP IN NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO THERE IS A CHANCE THAT STORMS COULD FORM UP THAT WAY AND MAKE
A RUN TOWARDS THE PANHANDLES. BUT AS THE STORY HAS BEEN WITH STORMS
THIS TIME OF YEAR THE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIMITED AND
SHOULD PROHIBIT ANY OF THE STORMS FROM BECOMING SEVERE. ON TUESDAY
ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
NORTHEAST NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH, BUT AT THIS TIME THINK THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE UP INTO KANSAS AND THE MAIN BODY OF OKLAHOMA.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE MOST PEOPLES BEST CHANCES TO SEE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS UPCOMING WEEK. IF STORMS DO FORM THEY HAVE A
CHANCE OF BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500
J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE AVERAGE OF 20-30 KTS ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE STORMS SHOULD BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO ANY STORMS
THAT DO FORM SHOULD ONLY LAST INTO THE EARLY NIGHT TIME HOURS.

THINGS GET A BIT INTERESTING IN THE LONG TERM... MOST MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT OF CUTTING OFF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND START TO RETROGRADE IT BACK
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS COULD BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND BUT AT THIS POINT WILL
TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH WITH A OUT OF THE ORDINARY SITUATION
LIKE THIS. AFTER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK MODELS BRING IN A DEEPER
LOW AND WITH IT A CHANCE OF RAIN JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

MOULTON

FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

19/11







000
FXUS64 KAMA 220833
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
333 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SHOWERS THAT WERE MOVING OFF TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST LOOK TO
DOUBLE BACK AROUND AND HAVE A CHANCE TO INVADE THE WESTERN TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. IF THESE STORMS ARE ABLE TO HOLD
TOGETHER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PANHANDLES HAVE A CHANCE TO PICK UP
A LITTLE PRECIP SINCE THEY MISSED OUT ON IT YESTERDAY. LOW CLOUDS
ARE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THOSE SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE. AT THIS POINT THINK LOW CLOUDS COULD STICK
AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TILL NOONISH. DEPENDING ON HOW LONG
THE CLOUDS STICK AROUND WILL AFFECT TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND AT THIS POINT HAVE THE SOUTHWEST ONLY REACHING THE
LOWER 70S WHILE PLACES IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE SHOULD REACH NEAR
80 TODAY.

IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE TROUGH THAT SHOULD SET UP IN NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO THERE IS A CHANCE THAT STORMS COULD FORM UP THAT WAY AND MAKE
A RUN TOWARDS THE PANHANDLES. BUT AS THE STORY HAS BEEN WITH STORMS
THIS TIME OF YEAR THE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIMITED AND
SHOULD PROHIBIT ANY OF THE STORMS FROM BECOMING SEVERE. ON TUESDAY
ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
NORTHEAST NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH, BUT AT THIS TIME THINK THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE UP INTO KANSAS AND THE MAIN BODY OF OKLAHOMA.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE MOST PEOPLES BEST CHANCES TO SEE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS UPCOMING WEEK. IF STORMS DO FORM THEY HAVE A
CHANCE OF BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500
J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE AVERAGE OF 20-30 KTS ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE STORMS SHOULD BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO ANY STORMS
THAT DO FORM SHOULD ONLY LAST INTO THE EARLY NIGHT TIME HOURS.

THINGS GET A BIT INTERESTING IN THE LONG TERM... MOST MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT OF CUTTING OFF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND START TO RETROGRADE IT BACK
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS COULD BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND BUT AT THIS POINT WILL
TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH WITH A OUT OF THE ORDINARY SITUATION
LIKE THIS. AFTER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK MODELS BRING IN A DEEPER
LOW AND WITH IT A CHANCE OF RAIN JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

MOULTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                73  58  81  58  81 /  30  20  10  10  20
BEAVER OK                  79  57  86  62  85 /  10  20  20  30  30
BOISE CITY OK              75  58  85  57  83 /  40  30  10  20  30
BORGER TX                  77  60  84  62  84 /  30  20  10  20  30
BOYS RANCH TX              74  59  84  58  82 /  40  30  10  10  30
CANYON TX                  74  58  81  58  80 /  40  20  10  10  20
CLARENDON TX               76  59  82  58  82 /  20  20  20  20  20
DALHART TX                 74  56  85  55  82 /  40  30  10  10  30
GUYMON OK                  76  59  87  60  85 /  20  30  10  20  30
HEREFORD TX                72  56  81  57  80 /  50  20  10  10  30
LIPSCOMB TX                79  58  84  61  84 /   5  20  20  30  30
PAMPA TX                   74  58  81  60  81 /  20  20  20  20  30
SHAMROCK TX                78  58  82  59  83 /  10  20  20  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              80  57  83  60  84 /  10  20  20  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/19






000
FXUS64 KAMA 220833
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
333 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SHOWERS THAT WERE MOVING OFF TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST LOOK TO
DOUBLE BACK AROUND AND HAVE A CHANCE TO INVADE THE WESTERN TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. IF THESE STORMS ARE ABLE TO HOLD
TOGETHER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PANHANDLES HAVE A CHANCE TO PICK UP
A LITTLE PRECIP SINCE THEY MISSED OUT ON IT YESTERDAY. LOW CLOUDS
ARE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THOSE SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE. AT THIS POINT THINK LOW CLOUDS COULD STICK
AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TILL NOONISH. DEPENDING ON HOW LONG
THE CLOUDS STICK AROUND WILL AFFECT TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND AT THIS POINT HAVE THE SOUTHWEST ONLY REACHING THE
LOWER 70S WHILE PLACES IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE SHOULD REACH NEAR
80 TODAY.

IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE TROUGH THAT SHOULD SET UP IN NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO THERE IS A CHANCE THAT STORMS COULD FORM UP THAT WAY AND MAKE
A RUN TOWARDS THE PANHANDLES. BUT AS THE STORY HAS BEEN WITH STORMS
THIS TIME OF YEAR THE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIMITED AND
SHOULD PROHIBIT ANY OF THE STORMS FROM BECOMING SEVERE. ON TUESDAY
ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
NORTHEAST NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH, BUT AT THIS TIME THINK THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE UP INTO KANSAS AND THE MAIN BODY OF OKLAHOMA.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE MOST PEOPLES BEST CHANCES TO SEE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS UPCOMING WEEK. IF STORMS DO FORM THEY HAVE A
CHANCE OF BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500
J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE AVERAGE OF 20-30 KTS ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE STORMS SHOULD BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO ANY STORMS
THAT DO FORM SHOULD ONLY LAST INTO THE EARLY NIGHT TIME HOURS.

THINGS GET A BIT INTERESTING IN THE LONG TERM... MOST MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT OF CUTTING OFF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND START TO RETROGRADE IT BACK
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS COULD BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND BUT AT THIS POINT WILL
TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH WITH A OUT OF THE ORDINARY SITUATION
LIKE THIS. AFTER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK MODELS BRING IN A DEEPER
LOW AND WITH IT A CHANCE OF RAIN JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

MOULTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                73  58  81  58  81 /  30  20  10  10  20
BEAVER OK                  79  57  86  62  85 /  10  20  20  30  30
BOISE CITY OK              75  58  85  57  83 /  40  30  10  20  30
BORGER TX                  77  60  84  62  84 /  30  20  10  20  30
BOYS RANCH TX              74  59  84  58  82 /  40  30  10  10  30
CANYON TX                  74  58  81  58  80 /  40  20  10  10  20
CLARENDON TX               76  59  82  58  82 /  20  20  20  20  20
DALHART TX                 74  56  85  55  82 /  40  30  10  10  30
GUYMON OK                  76  59  87  60  85 /  20  30  10  20  30
HEREFORD TX                72  56  81  57  80 /  50  20  10  10  30
LIPSCOMB TX                79  58  84  61  84 /   5  20  20  30  30
PAMPA TX                   74  58  81  60  81 /  20  20  20  20  30
SHAMROCK TX                78  58  82  59  83 /  10  20  20  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              80  57  83  60  84 /  10  20  20  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/19







000
FXUS64 KAMA 220409 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1109 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AMA TAF SITE AND THEY
SHOULD FORM OVER THE DHT TAF SITE BEFORE SUNRISE. CIGS SHOULD BE IN
THE MVFR RANGE. GUY SHOULD BE LOW CLOUD FREE. LOW CLOUDS WILL BREAK
UP BY LATE MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AT ALL TAF SITES BY
LATE MORNING. SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRY TO MOVE INTO THE
DHT AND GUY TAF SITES LATE MONDAY MORNING OR MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
WILL NOT MENTION NOW AS CHANCES SEEM A LITTLE SLIM. THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL DECREASE WITH SUNSET MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

AVIATION...
THE BEST CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING WILL BE AT THE AMA TAF
SITE. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A TEMPO GROUP THERE. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AMA AND DHT TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE
INSERTED AN MVFR CIG. WILL LEAVE LOW CLOUDS OUT OF GUY FOR NOW. LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP BY THE LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT
OF THE SOUTH BY LATE MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK FOR
PORTIONS OF TX/OK PANHANDLES AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIDE AROUND AN
UPPER RIDGE. WITH CLOUD COVER AND DECENT MOISTURE AROUND THE
PANHANDLES...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL MOST
DAYS. SEE BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

NF

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 10 PM AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THERE WILL BE A VERY SMALL CHANCE THAT A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/MAYBE A STORM COULD POP UP ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO
WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT, BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S AREAWIDE. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY FORM ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT, BUT DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS WON`T GET LOW ENOUGH FOR FOG FORMATION, EVEN ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE WILL BE THE
MOST FAVORABLE.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: LOW CLOUDS MAY BE A LITTLE STUBBORN TO BREAK UP
TOMORROW MORNING ON THE CAPROCK, SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. AS AN UPPER TROUGH EJECTS
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, STRENGTHENING CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW WILL
PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW. IN RESPONSE TO
THIS, SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE INTO THE 10
TO 20 MPH RANGE. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND SNEAK
INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
CONFINED TO LOCATIONS WEST OF A GUYMON TO HEREFORD LINE THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENINGS HOURS. OWING TO MINIMAL SOLAR RADIATION IN THESE
AREAS TOMORROW, INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR ANY SEVERE
STORMS. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
THEY WILL BE AIDED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SET UP A LITTLE
FARTHER EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT NEGLIGIBLE FORCING FOR ASCENT
SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WITH
BREEZIER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LESS CLOUDS, HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THERE MIGHT BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER OPPORTUNITY
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLES
AS A LOBE OF VORTICITY BREAKS OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVES SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, THE BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ACROSS KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WILL LIFT THE POLAR JET NORTHWARD AND POTENTIALLY CUT
OFF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS
ACTUALLY SUGGEST THIS TROUGH RETROGRADING SOUTHWEST. EVEN IF THIS
DOESN`T HAPPEN, ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ENOUGH UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY AND
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO WARRANT A CHANCE FOR RAIN/STORMS OVER MORE
REAL ESTATE OF THE PANHANDLES. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASES UP TO 30 KT AND MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES INCREASE UP TO
1500 J/KG. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BEGIN
WEAKENING/DISSIPATING LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING.

JACKSON

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BUT GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT FOR POSSIBLE
RETROGRADING SHORTWAVE TO BRING LATE WEEK THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. AT
THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST...A DEEPER UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS OVER NEXT WEEKEND AND MAY CUT OFF BEFORE
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH/SPEED
OF THIS SHORTWAVE...COULD SEE ANOTHER SHOT AT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE OVER THE WEEKEND.

NF

FIRE WEATHER...

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/06






000
FXUS64 KAMA 220409 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1109 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AMA TAF SITE AND THEY
SHOULD FORM OVER THE DHT TAF SITE BEFORE SUNRISE. CIGS SHOULD BE IN
THE MVFR RANGE. GUY SHOULD BE LOW CLOUD FREE. LOW CLOUDS WILL BREAK
UP BY LATE MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AT ALL TAF SITES BY
LATE MORNING. SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRY TO MOVE INTO THE
DHT AND GUY TAF SITES LATE MONDAY MORNING OR MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
WILL NOT MENTION NOW AS CHANCES SEEM A LITTLE SLIM. THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL DECREASE WITH SUNSET MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

AVIATION...
THE BEST CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING WILL BE AT THE AMA TAF
SITE. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A TEMPO GROUP THERE. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AMA AND DHT TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE
INSERTED AN MVFR CIG. WILL LEAVE LOW CLOUDS OUT OF GUY FOR NOW. LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP BY THE LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT
OF THE SOUTH BY LATE MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK FOR
PORTIONS OF TX/OK PANHANDLES AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIDE AROUND AN
UPPER RIDGE. WITH CLOUD COVER AND DECENT MOISTURE AROUND THE
PANHANDLES...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL MOST
DAYS. SEE BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

NF

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 10 PM AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THERE WILL BE A VERY SMALL CHANCE THAT A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/MAYBE A STORM COULD POP UP ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO
WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT, BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S AREAWIDE. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY FORM ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT, BUT DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS WON`T GET LOW ENOUGH FOR FOG FORMATION, EVEN ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE WILL BE THE
MOST FAVORABLE.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: LOW CLOUDS MAY BE A LITTLE STUBBORN TO BREAK UP
TOMORROW MORNING ON THE CAPROCK, SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. AS AN UPPER TROUGH EJECTS
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, STRENGTHENING CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW WILL
PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW. IN RESPONSE TO
THIS, SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE INTO THE 10
TO 20 MPH RANGE. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND SNEAK
INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
CONFINED TO LOCATIONS WEST OF A GUYMON TO HEREFORD LINE THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENINGS HOURS. OWING TO MINIMAL SOLAR RADIATION IN THESE
AREAS TOMORROW, INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR ANY SEVERE
STORMS. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
THEY WILL BE AIDED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SET UP A LITTLE
FARTHER EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT NEGLIGIBLE FORCING FOR ASCENT
SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WITH
BREEZIER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LESS CLOUDS, HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THERE MIGHT BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER OPPORTUNITY
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLES
AS A LOBE OF VORTICITY BREAKS OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVES SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, THE BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ACROSS KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WILL LIFT THE POLAR JET NORTHWARD AND POTENTIALLY CUT
OFF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS
ACTUALLY SUGGEST THIS TROUGH RETROGRADING SOUTHWEST. EVEN IF THIS
DOESN`T HAPPEN, ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ENOUGH UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY AND
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO WARRANT A CHANCE FOR RAIN/STORMS OVER MORE
REAL ESTATE OF THE PANHANDLES. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASES UP TO 30 KT AND MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES INCREASE UP TO
1500 J/KG. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BEGIN
WEAKENING/DISSIPATING LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING.

JACKSON

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BUT GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT FOR POSSIBLE
RETROGRADING SHORTWAVE TO BRING LATE WEEK THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. AT
THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST...A DEEPER UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS OVER NEXT WEEKEND AND MAY CUT OFF BEFORE
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH/SPEED
OF THIS SHORTWAVE...COULD SEE ANOTHER SHOT AT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE OVER THE WEEKEND.

NF

FIRE WEATHER...

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/06







000
FXUS64 KAMA 212313 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
613 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.AVIATION...
THE BEST CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING WILL BE AT THE AMA TAF
SITE. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A TEMPO GROUP THERE. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AMA AND DHT TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE
INSERTED AN MVFR CIG. WILL LEAVE LOW CLOUDS OUT OF GUY FOR NOW. LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP BY THE LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT
OF THE SOUTH BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK FOR
PORTIONS OF TX/OK PANHANDLES AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIDE AROUND AN
UPPER RIDGE. WITH CLOUD COVER AND DECENT MOISTURE AROUND THE
PANHANDLES...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL MOST
DAYS. SEE BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

NF

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 10 PM AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THERE WILL BE A VERY SMALL CHANCE THAT A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/MAYBE A STORM COULD POP UP ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO
WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT, BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S AREAWIDE. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY FORM ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT, BUT DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS WON`T GET LOW ENOUGH FOR FOG FORMATION, EVEN ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE WILL BE THE
MOST FAVORABLE.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: LOW CLOUDS MAY BE A LITTLE STUBBORN TO BREAK UP
TOMORROW MORNING ON THE CAPROCK, SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. AS AN UPPER TROUGH EJECTS
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, STRENGTHENING CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW WILL
PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW. IN RESPONSE TO
THIS, SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE INTO THE 10
TO 20 MPH RANGE. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND SNEAK
INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
CONFINED TO LOCATIONS WEST OF A GUYMON TO HEREFORD LINE THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENINGS HOURS. OWING TO MINIMAL SOLAR RADIATION IN THESE
AREAS TOMORROW, INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR ANY SEVERE
STORMS. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
THEY WILL BE AIDED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SET UP A LITTLE
FARTHER EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT NEGLIGIBLE FORCING FOR ASCENT
SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WITH
BREEZIER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LESS CLOUDS, HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THERE MIGHT BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER OPPORTUNITY
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLES
AS A LOBE OF VORTICITY BREAKS OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVES SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, THE BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ACROSS KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WILL LIFT THE POLAR JET NORTHWARD AND POTENTIALLY CUT
OFF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS
ACTUALLY SUGGEST THIS TROUGH RETROGRADING SOUTHWEST. EVEN IF THIS
DOESN`T HAPPEN, ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ENOUGH UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY AND
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO WARRANT A CHANCE FOR RAIN/STORMS OVER MORE
REAL ESTATE OF THE PANHANDLES. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASES UP TO 30 KT AND MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES INCREASE UP TO
1500 J/KG. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BEGIN
WEAKENING/DISSIPATING LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING.

JACKSON

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BUT GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT FOR POSSIBLE
RETROGRADING SHORTWAVE TO BRING LATE WEEK THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. AT
THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST...A DEEPER UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS OVER NEXT WEEKEND AND MAY CUT OFF BEFORE
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH/SPEED
OF THIS SHORTWAVE...COULD SEE ANOTHER SHOT AT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE OVER THE WEEKEND.

NF

FIRE WEATHER...

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/6






000
FXUS64 KAMA 212313 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
613 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.AVIATION...
THE BEST CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING WILL BE AT THE AMA TAF
SITE. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A TEMPO GROUP THERE. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AMA AND DHT TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE
INSERTED AN MVFR CIG. WILL LEAVE LOW CLOUDS OUT OF GUY FOR NOW. LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP BY THE LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT
OF THE SOUTH BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK FOR
PORTIONS OF TX/OK PANHANDLES AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIDE AROUND AN
UPPER RIDGE. WITH CLOUD COVER AND DECENT MOISTURE AROUND THE
PANHANDLES...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL MOST
DAYS. SEE BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

NF

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 10 PM AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THERE WILL BE A VERY SMALL CHANCE THAT A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/MAYBE A STORM COULD POP UP ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO
WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT, BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S AREAWIDE. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY FORM ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT, BUT DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS WON`T GET LOW ENOUGH FOR FOG FORMATION, EVEN ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE WILL BE THE
MOST FAVORABLE.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: LOW CLOUDS MAY BE A LITTLE STUBBORN TO BREAK UP
TOMORROW MORNING ON THE CAPROCK, SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. AS AN UPPER TROUGH EJECTS
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, STRENGTHENING CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW WILL
PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW. IN RESPONSE TO
THIS, SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE INTO THE 10
TO 20 MPH RANGE. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND SNEAK
INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
CONFINED TO LOCATIONS WEST OF A GUYMON TO HEREFORD LINE THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENINGS HOURS. OWING TO MINIMAL SOLAR RADIATION IN THESE
AREAS TOMORROW, INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR ANY SEVERE
STORMS. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
THEY WILL BE AIDED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SET UP A LITTLE
FARTHER EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT NEGLIGIBLE FORCING FOR ASCENT
SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WITH
BREEZIER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LESS CLOUDS, HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THERE MIGHT BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER OPPORTUNITY
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLES
AS A LOBE OF VORTICITY BREAKS OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVES SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, THE BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ACROSS KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WILL LIFT THE POLAR JET NORTHWARD AND POTENTIALLY CUT
OFF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS
ACTUALLY SUGGEST THIS TROUGH RETROGRADING SOUTHWEST. EVEN IF THIS
DOESN`T HAPPEN, ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ENOUGH UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY AND
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO WARRANT A CHANCE FOR RAIN/STORMS OVER MORE
REAL ESTATE OF THE PANHANDLES. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASES UP TO 30 KT AND MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES INCREASE UP TO
1500 J/KG. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BEGIN
WEAKENING/DISSIPATING LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING.

JACKSON

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BUT GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT FOR POSSIBLE
RETROGRADING SHORTWAVE TO BRING LATE WEEK THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. AT
THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST...A DEEPER UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS OVER NEXT WEEKEND AND MAY CUT OFF BEFORE
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH/SPEED
OF THIS SHORTWAVE...COULD SEE ANOTHER SHOT AT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE OVER THE WEEKEND.

NF

FIRE WEATHER...

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/6







000
FXUS64 KAMA 212135
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
435 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK FOR
PORTIONS OF TX/OK PANHANDLES AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIDE AROUND AN
UPPER RIDGE. WITH CLOUD COVER AND DECENT MOISTURE AROUND THE
PANHANDLES...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL MOST
DAYS. SEE BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

NF

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 10 PM AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THERE WILL BE A VERY SMALL CHANCE THAT A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/MAYBE A STORM COULD POP UP ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO
WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT, BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S AREAWIDE. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY FORM ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT, BUT DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS WON`T GET LOW ENOUGH FOR FOG FORMATION, EVEN ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE WILL BE THE
MOST FAVORABLE.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: LOW CLOUDS MAY BE A LITTLE STUBBORN TO BREAK UP
TOMORROW MORNING ON THE CAPROCK, SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. AS AN UPPER TROUGH EJECTS
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, STRENGTHENING CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW WILL
PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW. IN RESPONSE TO
THIS, SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE INTO THE 10
TO 20 MPH RANGE. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND SNEAK
INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
CONFINED TO LOCATIONS WEST OF A GUYMON TO HEREFORD LINE THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENINGS HOURS. OWING TO MINIMAL SOLAR RADIATION IN THESE
AREAS TOMORROW, INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR ANY SEVERE
STORMS. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
THEY WILL BE AIDED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SET UP A LITTLE
FARTHER EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT NEGLIGIBLE FORCING FOR ASCENT
SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WITH
BREEZIER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LESS CLOUDS, HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THERE MIGHT BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER OPPORTUNITY
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLES
AS A LOBE OF VORTICITY BREAKS OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVES SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, THE BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ACROSS KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WILL LIFT THE POLAR JET NORTHWARD AND POTENTIALLY CUT
OFF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS
ACTUALLY SUGGEST THIS TROUGH RETROGRADING SOUTHWEST. EVEN IF THIS
DOESN`T HAPPEN, ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ENOUGH UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY AND
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO WARRANT A CHANCE FOR RAIN/STORMS OVER MORE
REAL ESTATE OF THE PANHANDLES. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASES UP TO 30 KT AND MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES INCREASE UP TO
1500 J/KG. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BEGIN
WEAKENING/DISSIPATING LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING.

JACKSON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BUT GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT FOR POSSIBLE
RETROGRADING SHORTWAVE TO BRING LATE WEEK THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. AT
THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST...A DEEPER UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS OVER NEXT WEEKEND AND MAY CUT OFF BEFORE
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH/SPEED
OF THIS SHORTWAVE...COULD SEE ANOTHER SHOT AT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE OVER THE WEEKEND.

NF

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                56  73  57  79  59 /  20  10  20  20  10
BEAVER OK                  53  78  57  84  62 /   0  10  30  20  40
BOISE CITY OK              53  72  58  83  57 /   5  30  30  10  10
BORGER TX                  57  77  61  82  62 /  10  10  30  20  20
BOYS RANCH TX              57  74  58  82  59 /  20  30  30  20  10
CANYON TX                  57  73  57  79  59 /  30  10  20  20  10
CLARENDON TX               59  76  58  80  59 /  30   5  10  20  20
DALHART TX                 55  73  58  81  57 /  20  30  30  10  10
GUYMON OK                  54  77  58  84  60 /   0  20  30  20  30
HEREFORD TX                56  72  55  79  58 /  40  20  30  20  10
LIPSCOMB TX                54  78  57  81  61 /   0   5  20  20  30
PAMPA TX                   54  75  58  79  60 /   5   5  20  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                54  78  57  80  60 /  20   5  10  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              59  80  56  82  61 /  30   5  10  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

09/06






000
FXUS64 KAMA 212135
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
435 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK FOR
PORTIONS OF TX/OK PANHANDLES AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIDE AROUND AN
UPPER RIDGE. WITH CLOUD COVER AND DECENT MOISTURE AROUND THE
PANHANDLES...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL MOST
DAYS. SEE BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

NF

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 10 PM AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THERE WILL BE A VERY SMALL CHANCE THAT A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/MAYBE A STORM COULD POP UP ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO
WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT, BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S AREAWIDE. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY FORM ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT, BUT DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS WON`T GET LOW ENOUGH FOR FOG FORMATION, EVEN ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE WILL BE THE
MOST FAVORABLE.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: LOW CLOUDS MAY BE A LITTLE STUBBORN TO BREAK UP
TOMORROW MORNING ON THE CAPROCK, SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. AS AN UPPER TROUGH EJECTS
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, STRENGTHENING CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW WILL
PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW. IN RESPONSE TO
THIS, SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE INTO THE 10
TO 20 MPH RANGE. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND SNEAK
INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
CONFINED TO LOCATIONS WEST OF A GUYMON TO HEREFORD LINE THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENINGS HOURS. OWING TO MINIMAL SOLAR RADIATION IN THESE
AREAS TOMORROW, INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR ANY SEVERE
STORMS. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
THEY WILL BE AIDED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SET UP A LITTLE
FARTHER EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT NEGLIGIBLE FORCING FOR ASCENT
SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WITH
BREEZIER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LESS CLOUDS, HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THERE MIGHT BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER OPPORTUNITY
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLES
AS A LOBE OF VORTICITY BREAKS OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVES SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, THE BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ACROSS KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WILL LIFT THE POLAR JET NORTHWARD AND POTENTIALLY CUT
OFF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS
ACTUALLY SUGGEST THIS TROUGH RETROGRADING SOUTHWEST. EVEN IF THIS
DOESN`T HAPPEN, ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ENOUGH UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY AND
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO WARRANT A CHANCE FOR RAIN/STORMS OVER MORE
REAL ESTATE OF THE PANHANDLES. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASES UP TO 30 KT AND MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES INCREASE UP TO
1500 J/KG. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BEGIN
WEAKENING/DISSIPATING LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING.

JACKSON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BUT GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT FOR POSSIBLE
RETROGRADING SHORTWAVE TO BRING LATE WEEK THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. AT
THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST...A DEEPER UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS OVER NEXT WEEKEND AND MAY CUT OFF BEFORE
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH/SPEED
OF THIS SHORTWAVE...COULD SEE ANOTHER SHOT AT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE OVER THE WEEKEND.

NF

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                56  73  57  79  59 /  20  10  20  20  10
BEAVER OK                  53  78  57  84  62 /   0  10  30  20  40
BOISE CITY OK              53  72  58  83  57 /   5  30  30  10  10
BORGER TX                  57  77  61  82  62 /  10  10  30  20  20
BOYS RANCH TX              57  74  58  82  59 /  20  30  30  20  10
CANYON TX                  57  73  57  79  59 /  30  10  20  20  10
CLARENDON TX               59  76  58  80  59 /  30   5  10  20  20
DALHART TX                 55  73  58  81  57 /  20  30  30  10  10
GUYMON OK                  54  77  58  84  60 /   0  20  30  20  30
HEREFORD TX                56  72  55  79  58 /  40  20  30  20  10
LIPSCOMB TX                54  78  57  81  61 /   0   5  20  20  30
PAMPA TX                   54  75  58  79  60 /   5   5  20  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                54  78  57  80  60 /  20   5  10  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              59  80  56  82  61 /  30   5  10  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

09/06







000
FXUS64 KAMA 211815
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
115 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE
TAF PERIOD THOUGH AGAIN THERE WILL BE SOME EXCEPTIONS. THE FIRST IS A
BIT OF MVFR LOW CLOUD COVER INITIALLY AT KDHT. THE SECOND COULD BE
SOME LOW CLOUD REDEVELOPMENT MONDAY MORNING AT ANY OF THE SITES.
THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME THUNDER AROUND THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY AT
KAMA. WINDS WILL VEER FROM NE TO SE THIS EVENING.

SIMPSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM NEAR DALHART TO DUMAS TO
LIPSCOMB. A SMALL BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER HEMPHILL AND ROBERTS COUNTIES EARLIER IS
DEVELOPING SLOWLY SOUTH AND WEST INTO GRAY AND CARSON COUNTIES.
HOWEVER, THE GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH,
AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
HOURS, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE RAP.

BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN/STORMS LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF A DALHART TO WHEELER LINE. MODEL
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING TO NEAR 30 KT, MAINLY
DUE TO IMPRESSIVE VEERING HODOGRAPHS (DIRECTIONAL SHEAR). WITH A
LITTLE HEATING, AN AXIS OF MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES UP TO 1000 J/KG
WILL DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE COUNTIES. MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LEVELS, BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF I-40. DUE TO SLOW STORM MOTIONS, PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES UP TO 1.30 INCHES, EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCERS,
AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR BACKBUILDING STORMS (ESPECIALLY THE SW TEXAS
PANHANDLE), HEAVY RAIN MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

JACKSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION.../12Z TAFS/
KAMA...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY SO EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VCSH/VCTS
COULD DEVELOP AND POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 16Z-23Z
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE ANY
RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME.

KDHT AND KGUY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT VCSH/VCTS OCCURRING BETWEEN
15Z-22Z.

KNS

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY. SOME LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING UNTIL AROUND
15Z OR SO TODAY ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY TONIGHT AS A COOL SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHWEST INTO THE
PANHANDLES. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BRING SOME DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR INTO THE PANHANDLES FROM THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING FOR ANY
CONVECTION TODAY TO END FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE PANHANDLES TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH WILL
DEAMPLIFY MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE ROCKIES EARLY
THIS WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO NORTHWESTERLY BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. A SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL DEEPEN BY MID WEEK. BREEZY DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND AGAIN POSSIBLY BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
A SEASONABLY COOL AND WET WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

09/06







000
FXUS64 KAMA 211815
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
115 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE
TAF PERIOD THOUGH AGAIN THERE WILL BE SOME EXCEPTIONS. THE FIRST IS A
BIT OF MVFR LOW CLOUD COVER INITIALLY AT KDHT. THE SECOND COULD BE
SOME LOW CLOUD REDEVELOPMENT MONDAY MORNING AT ANY OF THE SITES.
THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME THUNDER AROUND THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY AT
KAMA. WINDS WILL VEER FROM NE TO SE THIS EVENING.

SIMPSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM NEAR DALHART TO DUMAS TO
LIPSCOMB. A SMALL BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER HEMPHILL AND ROBERTS COUNTIES EARLIER IS
DEVELOPING SLOWLY SOUTH AND WEST INTO GRAY AND CARSON COUNTIES.
HOWEVER, THE GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH,
AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
HOURS, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE RAP.

BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN/STORMS LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF A DALHART TO WHEELER LINE. MODEL
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING TO NEAR 30 KT, MAINLY
DUE TO IMPRESSIVE VEERING HODOGRAPHS (DIRECTIONAL SHEAR). WITH A
LITTLE HEATING, AN AXIS OF MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES UP TO 1000 J/KG
WILL DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE COUNTIES. MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LEVELS, BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF I-40. DUE TO SLOW STORM MOTIONS, PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES UP TO 1.30 INCHES, EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCERS,
AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR BACKBUILDING STORMS (ESPECIALLY THE SW TEXAS
PANHANDLE), HEAVY RAIN MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

JACKSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION.../12Z TAFS/
KAMA...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY SO EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VCSH/VCTS
COULD DEVELOP AND POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 16Z-23Z
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE ANY
RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME.

KDHT AND KGUY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT VCSH/VCTS OCCURRING BETWEEN
15Z-22Z.

KNS

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY. SOME LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING UNTIL AROUND
15Z OR SO TODAY ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY TONIGHT AS A COOL SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHWEST INTO THE
PANHANDLES. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BRING SOME DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR INTO THE PANHANDLES FROM THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING FOR ANY
CONVECTION TODAY TO END FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE PANHANDLES TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH WILL
DEAMPLIFY MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE ROCKIES EARLY
THIS WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO NORTHWESTERLY BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. A SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL DEEPEN BY MID WEEK. BREEZY DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND AGAIN POSSIBLY BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
A SEASONABLY COOL AND WET WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

09/06






000
FXUS64 KAMA 211605 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1105 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM NEAR DALHART TO DUMAS TO
LIPSCOMB. A SMALL BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER HEMPHILL AND ROBERTS COUNTIES EARLIER IS
DEVELOPING SLOWLY SOUTH AND WEST INTO GRAY AND CARSON COUNTIES.
HOWEVER, THE GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH,
AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
HOURS, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE RAP.

BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN/STORMS LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF A DALHART TO WHEELER LINE. MODEL
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING TO NEAR 30 KT, MAINLY
DUE TO IMPRESSIVE VEERING HODOGRAPHS (DIRECTIONAL SHEAR). WITH A
LITTLE HEATING, AN AXIS OF MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES UP TO 1000 J/KG
WILL DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE COUNTIES. MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LEVELS, BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF I-40. DUE TO SLOW STORM MOTIONS, PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES UP TO 1.30 INCHES, EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCERS,
AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR BACKBUILDING STORMS (ESPECIALLY THE SW TEXAS
PANHANDLE), HEAVY RAIN MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

JACKSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION.../12Z TAFS/
KAMA...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY SO EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VCSH/VCTS
COULD DEVELOP AND POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 16Z-23Z
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE ANY
RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME.

KDHT AND KGUY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT VCSH/VCTS OCCURRING BETWEEN
15Z-22Z.

KNS

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY. SOME LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING UNTIL AROUND
15Z OR SO TODAY ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY TONIGHT AS A COOL SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHWEST INTO THE
PANHANDLES. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BRING SOME DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR INTO THE PANHANDLES FROM THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING FOR ANY
CONVECTION TODAY TO END FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE PANHANDLES TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH WILL
DEAMPLIFY MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE ROCKIES EARLY
THIS WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO NORTHWESTERLY BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. A SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL DEEPEN BY MID WEEK. BREEZY DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND AGAIN POSSIBLY BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
A SEASONABLY COOL AND WET WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

BJS/JJ






000
FXUS64 KAMA 211141 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
641 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z TAFS/
KAMA...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY SO EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VCSH/VCTS
COULD DEVELOP AND POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 16Z-23Z
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE ANY
RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME.

KDHT AND KGUY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT VCSH/VCTS OCCURRING BETWEEN
15Z-22Z.

KNS

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY. SOME LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING UNTIL AROUND
15Z OR SO TODAY ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY TONIGHT AS A COOL SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHWEST INTO THE
PANHANDLES. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BRING SOME DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR INTO THE PANHANDLES FROM THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING FOR ANY
CONVECTION TODAY TO END FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE PANHANDLES TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH WILL
DEAMPLIFY MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE ROCKIES EARLY
THIS WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO NORTHWESTERLY BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. A SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL DEEPEN BY MID WEEK. BREEZY DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND AGAIN POSSIBLY BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SEASONABLY COOL AND WET WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DEAF SMITH...RANDALL.

OK...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KAMA 211141 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
641 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z TAFS/
KAMA...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY SO EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VCSH/VCTS
COULD DEVELOP AND POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 16Z-23Z
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE ANY
RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME.

KDHT AND KGUY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT VCSH/VCTS OCCURRING BETWEEN
15Z-22Z.

KNS

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY. SOME LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING UNTIL AROUND
15Z OR SO TODAY ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY TONIGHT AS A COOL SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHWEST INTO THE
PANHANDLES. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BRING SOME DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR INTO THE PANHANDLES FROM THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING FOR ANY
CONVECTION TODAY TO END FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE PANHANDLES TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH WILL
DEAMPLIFY MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE ROCKIES EARLY
THIS WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO NORTHWESTERLY BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. A SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL DEEPEN BY MID WEEK. BREEZY DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND AGAIN POSSIBLY BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SEASONABLY COOL AND WET WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DEAF SMITH...RANDALL.

OK...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KAMA 210833
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
333 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY. SOME LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING UNTIL AROUND
15Z OR SO TODAY ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY TONIGHT AS A COOL SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHWEST INTO THE
PANHANDLES. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BRING SOME DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR INTO THE PANHANDLES FROM THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING FOR ANY
CONVECTION TODAY TO END FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE PANHANDLES TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH WILL
DEAMPLIFY MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE ROCKIES EARLY
THIS WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO NORTHWESTERLY BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. A SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL DEEPEN BY MID WEEK. BREEZY DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND AGAIN POSSIBLY BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SEASONABLY COOL AND WET WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                79  56  74  56  79 /  40  30  30  30  20
BEAVER OK                  82  53  80  57  82 /  20  10  20  40  40
BOISE CITY OK              78  56  78  57  83 /  20  20  40  30  10
BORGER TX                  82  60  78  62  82 /  30  30  20  30  30
BOYS RANCH TX              81  59  76  58  82 /  40  30  40  30  20
CANYON TX                  81  56  73  56  79 /  40  40  30  30  20
CLARENDON TX               82  58  76  58  80 /  40  30  20  30  30
DALHART TX                 77  57  75  55  81 /  30  30  40  30  10
GUYMON OK                  81  55  80  57  84 /  20  20  30  40  20
HEREFORD TX                79  57  73  55  79 /  50  40  40  30  20
LIPSCOMB TX                81  53  79  57  81 /  20  10  20  30  40
PAMPA TX                   79  56  75  57  78 /  30  20  20  30  30
SHAMROCK TX                84  56  79  57  80 /  30  20  20  30  20
WELLINGTON TX              85  58  80  57  81 /  30  30  20  30  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

20/11






000
FXUS64 KAMA 210519 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1219 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z TAFS/
KAMA AND KDHT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS FAR AS TIMING OUT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 17Z. DO NOT THINK CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL BE AS LOW AS PREVIOUS MORNINGS...BUT DO THINK THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW CLOUD AND FOG DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 11Z-17Z. BEYOND
17Z...SCATTERED VCSH AND POTENTIALLY VCTS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE SO INCLUDED A VCSH FOR NOW FOR 17Z-23Z. AFTER 00Z...VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.

KGUY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. VCSH/VCTS COULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 14Z-22Z...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANYTHING OTHER THAN VCSH FOR NOW.

KNS


&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 835 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

UPDATE...
MAIN REASON FOR EVENING UPDATE WAS TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. SHOWERS THAT WERE OVER THE
ROLLING PLAINS HAVE WANED IN COVERAGE.

COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS AND IS ON TRACK
TO MOVE INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP ALONG AND IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT SO HAVE
LEFT THE INHERITED POPS INTACT. CONCERN FOG OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING MAY BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN WHAT THE GOING FORECAST
SAYS. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN INCLUDING A MENTION OF FOG OVER THE
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO START
THE PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES. A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH WILL BRING A
CHANGE TO NORTHERLY AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. AT KGUY...THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR TSRA AND
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 08Z TO 15Z. AT KDHT...EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG TO BRING AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. AT KAMA...PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLE IFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LAST THROUGH MID MORNING. THERE IS
ALSO A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS NEAR KAMA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK.

AN UPPER RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
THIS AFTERNOON...FLANKED BY AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST AND AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH...BUT A
FEW OF THESE MAY CLIP THE FAR SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNSET.
EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF ANY OTHER FORCING. FOCUS FOR ANY
CONVECTION WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ATTENDANT FORCING MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OK
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SLIPS SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE AS A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL
END ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING AS MORE STABLE AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. RAIN CHANCES
WILL LINGER HOWEVER ACROSS THE WEST/SOUTHWEST PANHANDLES SUNDAY
NIGHT WHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SINKING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY WILL KEEP A MOIST LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE...WHILE
LINGERING MID/UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ODILE IS RECYCLED BACK
NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN NM AND THE WESTERN PANHANDLES BENEATH THE
UPPER RIDGE.

THIS MID/UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME...WITH CONTRIBUTIONS FROM BOTH
THE REMNANTS OF ODILE AND POLO...WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES
FLATTENS THE UPPER RIDGE. RESULTANT WEAK HEIGHT FALLS...ALONG WITH
THE INCREASING MOISTURE...WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY
WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON TUESDAY...WITH ITS SOUTHERN EXTENSION BRINGING SOME WEAK BUT
SUFFICIENT FORCING TO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES FOR SOME POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS.

UPPER RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. A WEAKNESS/SHEAR AXIS EMANATING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
THE PANHANDLES DURING THIS TIME. WILL LEAVE SOME SMALL POPS IN PLACE
DURING THIS TIME...AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
AS WELL.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER LOW ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE
ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE GFS IN PROGRESSING THIS LOW
EASTWARD...AND HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED ITS LEAD. THUS WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER PLEASANT THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND 80S.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KAMA 210519 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1219 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z TAFS/
KAMA AND KDHT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS FAR AS TIMING OUT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 17Z. DO NOT THINK CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL BE AS LOW AS PREVIOUS MORNINGS...BUT DO THINK THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW CLOUD AND FOG DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 11Z-17Z. BEYOND
17Z...SCATTERED VCSH AND POTENTIALLY VCTS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE SO INCLUDED A VCSH FOR NOW FOR 17Z-23Z. AFTER 00Z...VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.

KGUY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. VCSH/VCTS COULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 14Z-22Z...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANYTHING OTHER THAN VCSH FOR NOW.

KNS


&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 835 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

UPDATE...
MAIN REASON FOR EVENING UPDATE WAS TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. SHOWERS THAT WERE OVER THE
ROLLING PLAINS HAVE WANED IN COVERAGE.

COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS AND IS ON TRACK
TO MOVE INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP ALONG AND IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT SO HAVE
LEFT THE INHERITED POPS INTACT. CONCERN FOG OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING MAY BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN WHAT THE GOING FORECAST
SAYS. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN INCLUDING A MENTION OF FOG OVER THE
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO START
THE PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES. A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH WILL BRING A
CHANGE TO NORTHERLY AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. AT KGUY...THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR TSRA AND
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 08Z TO 15Z. AT KDHT...EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG TO BRING AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. AT KAMA...PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLE IFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LAST THROUGH MID MORNING. THERE IS
ALSO A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS NEAR KAMA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK.

AN UPPER RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
THIS AFTERNOON...FLANKED BY AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST AND AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH...BUT A
FEW OF THESE MAY CLIP THE FAR SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNSET.
EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF ANY OTHER FORCING. FOCUS FOR ANY
CONVECTION WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ATTENDANT FORCING MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OK
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SLIPS SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE AS A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL
END ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING AS MORE STABLE AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. RAIN CHANCES
WILL LINGER HOWEVER ACROSS THE WEST/SOUTHWEST PANHANDLES SUNDAY
NIGHT WHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SINKING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY WILL KEEP A MOIST LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE...WHILE
LINGERING MID/UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ODILE IS RECYCLED BACK
NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN NM AND THE WESTERN PANHANDLES BENEATH THE
UPPER RIDGE.

THIS MID/UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME...WITH CONTRIBUTIONS FROM BOTH
THE REMNANTS OF ODILE AND POLO...WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES
FLATTENS THE UPPER RIDGE. RESULTANT WEAK HEIGHT FALLS...ALONG WITH
THE INCREASING MOISTURE...WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY
WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON TUESDAY...WITH ITS SOUTHERN EXTENSION BRINGING SOME WEAK BUT
SUFFICIENT FORCING TO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES FOR SOME POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS.

UPPER RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. A WEAKNESS/SHEAR AXIS EMANATING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
THE PANHANDLES DURING THIS TIME. WILL LEAVE SOME SMALL POPS IN PLACE
DURING THIS TIME...AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
AS WELL.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER LOW ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE
ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE GFS IN PROGRESSING THIS LOW
EASTWARD...AND HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED ITS LEAD. THUS WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER PLEASANT THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND 80S.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KAMA 210135 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
835 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
MAIN REASON FOR EVENING UPDATE WAS TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. SHOWERS THAT WERE OVER THE
ROLLING PLAINS HAVE WANED IN COVERAGE.

COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS AND IS ON TRACK
TO MOVE INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP ALONG AND IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT SO HAVE
LEFT THE INHERITED POPS INTACT. CONCERN FOG OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING MAY BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN WHAT THE GOING FORECAST
SAYS. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN INCLUDING A MENTION OF FOG OVER THE
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO START
THE PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES. A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH WILL BRING A
CHANGE TO NORTHERLY AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. AT KGUY...THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR TSRA AND
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 08Z TO 15Z. AT KDHT...EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG TO BRING AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. AT KAMA...PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLE IFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LAST THROUGH MID MORNING. THERE IS
ALSO A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS NEAR KAMA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

NF

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK.

AN UPPER RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
THIS AFTERNOON...FLANKED BY AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST AND AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH...BUT A
FEW OF THESE MAY CLIP THE FAR SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNSET.
EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF ANY OTHER FORCING. FOCUS FOR ANY
CONVECTION WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ATTENDANT FORCING MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OK
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SLIPS SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE AS A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL
END ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING AS MORE STABLE AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. RAIN CHANCES
WILL LINGER HOWEVER ACROSS THE WEST/SOUTHWEST PANHANDLES SUNDAY
NIGHT WHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SINKING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY WILL KEEP A MOIST LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE...WHILE
LINGERING MID/UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ODILE IS RECYCLED BACK
NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN NM AND THE WESTERN PANHANDLES BENEATH THE
UPPER RIDGE.

THIS MID/UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME...WITH CONTRIBUTIONS FROM BOTH
THE REMNANTS OF ODILE AND POLO...WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES
FLATTENS THE UPPER RIDGE. RESULTANT WEAK HEIGHT FALLS...ALONG WITH
THE INCREASING MOISTURE...WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY
WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON TUESDAY...WITH ITS SOUTHERN EXTENSION BRINGING SOME WEAK BUT
SUFFICIENT FORCING TO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES FOR SOME POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS.

UPPER RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. A WEAKNESS/SHEAR AXIS EMANATING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
THE PANHANDLES DURING THIS TIME. WILL LEAVE SOME SMALL POPS IN PLACE
DURING THIS TIME...AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
AS WELL.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER LOW ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE
ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE GFS IN PROGRESSING THIS LOW
EASTWARD...AND HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED ITS LEAD. THUS WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER PLEASANT THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND 80S.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/05







000
FXUS64 KAMA 210135 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
835 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
MAIN REASON FOR EVENING UPDATE WAS TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. SHOWERS THAT WERE OVER THE
ROLLING PLAINS HAVE WANED IN COVERAGE.

COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS AND IS ON TRACK
TO MOVE INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP ALONG AND IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT SO HAVE
LEFT THE INHERITED POPS INTACT. CONCERN FOG OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING MAY BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN WHAT THE GOING FORECAST
SAYS. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN INCLUDING A MENTION OF FOG OVER THE
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO START
THE PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES. A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH WILL BRING A
CHANGE TO NORTHERLY AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. AT KGUY...THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR TSRA AND
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 08Z TO 15Z. AT KDHT...EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG TO BRING AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. AT KAMA...PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLE IFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LAST THROUGH MID MORNING. THERE IS
ALSO A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS NEAR KAMA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

NF

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK.

AN UPPER RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
THIS AFTERNOON...FLANKED BY AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST AND AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH...BUT A
FEW OF THESE MAY CLIP THE FAR SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNSET.
EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF ANY OTHER FORCING. FOCUS FOR ANY
CONVECTION WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ATTENDANT FORCING MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OK
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SLIPS SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE AS A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL
END ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING AS MORE STABLE AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. RAIN CHANCES
WILL LINGER HOWEVER ACROSS THE WEST/SOUTHWEST PANHANDLES SUNDAY
NIGHT WHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SINKING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY WILL KEEP A MOIST LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE...WHILE
LINGERING MID/UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ODILE IS RECYCLED BACK
NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN NM AND THE WESTERN PANHANDLES BENEATH THE
UPPER RIDGE.

THIS MID/UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME...WITH CONTRIBUTIONS FROM BOTH
THE REMNANTS OF ODILE AND POLO...WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES
FLATTENS THE UPPER RIDGE. RESULTANT WEAK HEIGHT FALLS...ALONG WITH
THE INCREASING MOISTURE...WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY
WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON TUESDAY...WITH ITS SOUTHERN EXTENSION BRINGING SOME WEAK BUT
SUFFICIENT FORCING TO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES FOR SOME POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS.

UPPER RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. A WEAKNESS/SHEAR AXIS EMANATING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
THE PANHANDLES DURING THIS TIME. WILL LEAVE SOME SMALL POPS IN PLACE
DURING THIS TIME...AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
AS WELL.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER LOW ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE
ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE GFS IN PROGRESSING THIS LOW
EASTWARD...AND HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED ITS LEAD. THUS WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER PLEASANT THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND 80S.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/05






000
FXUS64 KAMA 202355 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
655 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO START
THE PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES. A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH WILL BRING A
CHANGE TO NORTHERLY AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. AT KGUY...THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR TSRA AND
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 08Z TO 15Z. AT KDHT...EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG TO BRING AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. AT KAMA...PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLE IFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LAST THROUGH MID MORNING. THERE IS
ALSO A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS NEAR KAMA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK.

AN UPPER RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
THIS AFTERNOON...FLANKED BY AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST AND AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH...BUT A
FEW OF THESE MAY CLIP THE FAR SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNSET.
EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF ANY OTHER FORCING. FOCUS FOR ANY
CONVECTION WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ATTENDANT FORCING MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OK
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SLIPS SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE AS A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL
END ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING AS MORE STABLE AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. RAIN CHANCES
WILL LINGER HOWEVER ACROSS THE WEST/SOUTHWEST PANHANDLES SUNDAY
NIGHT WHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SINKING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY WILL KEEP A MOIST LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE...WHILE
LINGERING MID/UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ODILE IS RECYCLED BACK
NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN NM AND THE WESTERN PANHANDLES BENEATH THE
UPPER RIDGE.

THIS MID/UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME...WITH CONTRIBUTIONS FROM BOTH
THE REMNANTS OF ODILE AND POLO...WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES
FLATTENS THE UPPER RIDGE. RESULTANT WEAK HEIGHT FALLS...ALONG WITH
THE INCREASING MOISTURE...WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY
WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON TUESDAY...WITH ITS SOUTHERN EXTENSION BRINGING SOME WEAK BUT
SUFFICIENT FORCING TO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES FOR SOME POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS.

UPPER RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. A WEAKNESS/SHEAR AXIS EMANATING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
THE PANHANDLES DURING THIS TIME. WILL LEAVE SOME SMALL POPS IN PLACE
DURING THIS TIME...AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
AS WELL.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER LOW ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE
ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE GFS IN PROGRESSING THIS LOW
EASTWARD...AND HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED ITS LEAD. THUS WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER PLEASANT THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND 80S.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/05






000
FXUS64 KAMA 202355 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
655 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO START
THE PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES. A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH WILL BRING A
CHANGE TO NORTHERLY AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. AT KGUY...THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR TSRA AND
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 08Z TO 15Z. AT KDHT...EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG TO BRING AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. AT KAMA...PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLE IFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LAST THROUGH MID MORNING. THERE IS
ALSO A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS NEAR KAMA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK.

AN UPPER RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
THIS AFTERNOON...FLANKED BY AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST AND AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH...BUT A
FEW OF THESE MAY CLIP THE FAR SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNSET.
EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF ANY OTHER FORCING. FOCUS FOR ANY
CONVECTION WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ATTENDANT FORCING MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OK
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SLIPS SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE AS A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL
END ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING AS MORE STABLE AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. RAIN CHANCES
WILL LINGER HOWEVER ACROSS THE WEST/SOUTHWEST PANHANDLES SUNDAY
NIGHT WHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SINKING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY WILL KEEP A MOIST LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE...WHILE
LINGERING MID/UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ODILE IS RECYCLED BACK
NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN NM AND THE WESTERN PANHANDLES BENEATH THE
UPPER RIDGE.

THIS MID/UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME...WITH CONTRIBUTIONS FROM BOTH
THE REMNANTS OF ODILE AND POLO...WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES
FLATTENS THE UPPER RIDGE. RESULTANT WEAK HEIGHT FALLS...ALONG WITH
THE INCREASING MOISTURE...WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY
WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON TUESDAY...WITH ITS SOUTHERN EXTENSION BRINGING SOME WEAK BUT
SUFFICIENT FORCING TO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES FOR SOME POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS.

UPPER RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. A WEAKNESS/SHEAR AXIS EMANATING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
THE PANHANDLES DURING THIS TIME. WILL LEAVE SOME SMALL POPS IN PLACE
DURING THIS TIME...AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
AS WELL.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER LOW ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE
ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE GFS IN PROGRESSING THIS LOW
EASTWARD...AND HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED ITS LEAD. THUS WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER PLEASANT THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND 80S.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/05







000
FXUS64 KAMA 202103
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
403 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK.

AN UPPER RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
THIS AFTERNOON...FLANKED BY AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST AND AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH...BUT A
FEW OF THESE MAY CLIP THE FAR SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNSET.
EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF ANY OTHER FORCING. FOCUS FOR ANY
CONVECTION WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ATTENDANT FORCING MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OK
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SLIPS SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE AS A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL
END ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING AS MORE STABLE AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. RAIN CHANCES
WILL LINGER HOWEVER ACROSS THE WEST/SOUTHWEST PANHANDLES SUNDAY
NIGHT WHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SINKING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY WILL KEEP A MOIST LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE...WHILE
LINGERING MID/UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ODILE IS RECYCLED BACK
NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN NM AND THE WESTERN PANHANDLES BENEATH THE
UPPER RIDGE.

THIS MID/UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME...WITH CONTRIBUTIONS FROM BOTH
THE REMNANTS OF ODILE AND POLO...WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES
FLATTENS THE UPPER RIDGE. RESULTANT WEAK HEIGHT FALLS...ALONG WITH
THE INCREASING MOISTURE...WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY
WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON TUESDAY...WITH ITS SOUTHERN EXTENSION BRINGING SOME WEAK BUT
SUFFICIENT FORCING TO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES FOR SOME POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS.

UPPER RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. A WEAKNESS/SHEAR AXIS EMANATING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
THE PANHANDLES DURING THIS TIME. WILL LEAVE SOME SMALL POPS IN PLACE
DURING THIS TIME...AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
AS WELL.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER LOW ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE
ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE GFS IN PROGRESSING THIS LOW
EASTWARD...AND HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED ITS LEAD. THUS WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER PLEASANT THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND 80S.

KB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                62  80  59  75  57 /  10  40  30  30  30
BEAVER OK                  63  81  54  81  59 /  30  20  10  20  40
BOISE CITY OK              59  77  57  76  57 /  20  20  20  40  30
BORGER TX                  66  81  62  77  62 /  20  30  20  20  30
BOYS RANCH TX              62  82  61  75  59 /  10  40  30  40  30
CANYON TX                  62  82  59  75  57 /  10  40  30  30  30
CLARENDON TX               64  83  61  78  60 /  10  40  30  20  30
DALHART TX                 59  77  58  75  56 /  20  30  30  40  30
GUYMON OK                  63  80  56  78  60 /  30  20  10  30  40
HEREFORD TX                63  80  59  75  56 /  10  50  40  40  30
LIPSCOMB TX                64  82  54  80  59 /  30  20  10  20  30
PAMPA TX                   62  79  58  75  59 /  10  30  20  20  30
SHAMROCK TX                65  85  58  80  60 /  10  30  20  20  30
WELLINGTON TX              66  87  60  82  60 /  10  30  30  20  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

09/08







000
FXUS64 KAMA 201741
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1241 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS

THE BULK OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS THOUGH THERE ARE
A FEW CAVEATS. AT KAMA...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SE WINDS TO
GIVE WAY TO LOWER CAT CIGS LATER TONIGHT AS FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS
BEGIN TO DEVELOP. KDHT SHOULD REMAIN VFR THOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR FLIGHT CAT DEGREDATION LATE TONIGHT SIMILAR TO KAMA. AT
KGUY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THOUGH A COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH THE TAF SITE LATE TONIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A STORM ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT AND POSSIBLY SOME LOWER CIGS.

SIMPSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

UPDATE...

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REDUCE RAIN CHANCES AS MOST PLACES WILL STAY
DRY TODAY. ALSO BROUGHT A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE TO THE NW HALF FO THE
PANHANDLES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION.../12Z TAFS/
KAMA AND KDHT...GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 18Z WITH
BRIEF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION AFTER
08Z.

KGUY...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THINK THERE COULD BE SOME
VCSH AFTER 08Z BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

KNS

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

THE REMNANTS OF WHAT ONCE WAS HURRICANE ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
AREAS WEST AND SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES...HOWEVER THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF
THIS MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS COULD STILL POSSIBLY AFFECT THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ATTENTION SHIFTS TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVING
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TODAY AND THEN INTO THE
PANHANDLES TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE ROCKIES SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION MAINLY LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOL UPSLOPE
SURFACE FLOW MONDAY ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS.

SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BY
NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHICH ALLOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LIFT
NORTH AND EAST AS A WARM FRONT AND A SURFACE TROUGH SOUTH OF THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO ALSO DEEPENS BY MID NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK
AS SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS INCREASE INTO THE BREEZY
TO WINDY CATEGORY. SURFACE TROUGH MAY SHARPEN UP INTO A DRYLINE BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR THURSDAY WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING MAINLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THAT SOME CONVECTION COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE BY NEXT THURSDAY.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

09/08






000
FXUS64 KAMA 201741
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1241 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS

THE BULK OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS THOUGH THERE ARE
A FEW CAVEATS. AT KAMA...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SE WINDS TO
GIVE WAY TO LOWER CAT CIGS LATER TONIGHT AS FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS
BEGIN TO DEVELOP. KDHT SHOULD REMAIN VFR THOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR FLIGHT CAT DEGREDATION LATE TONIGHT SIMILAR TO KAMA. AT
KGUY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THOUGH A COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH THE TAF SITE LATE TONIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A STORM ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT AND POSSIBLY SOME LOWER CIGS.

SIMPSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

UPDATE...

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REDUCE RAIN CHANCES AS MOST PLACES WILL STAY
DRY TODAY. ALSO BROUGHT A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE TO THE NW HALF FO THE
PANHANDLES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION.../12Z TAFS/
KAMA AND KDHT...GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 18Z WITH
BRIEF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION AFTER
08Z.

KGUY...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THINK THERE COULD BE SOME
VCSH AFTER 08Z BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

KNS

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

THE REMNANTS OF WHAT ONCE WAS HURRICANE ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
AREAS WEST AND SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES...HOWEVER THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF
THIS MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS COULD STILL POSSIBLY AFFECT THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ATTENTION SHIFTS TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVING
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TODAY AND THEN INTO THE
PANHANDLES TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE ROCKIES SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION MAINLY LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOL UPSLOPE
SURFACE FLOW MONDAY ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS.

SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BY
NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHICH ALLOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LIFT
NORTH AND EAST AS A WARM FRONT AND A SURFACE TROUGH SOUTH OF THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO ALSO DEEPENS BY MID NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK
AS SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS INCREASE INTO THE BREEZY
TO WINDY CATEGORY. SURFACE TROUGH MAY SHARPEN UP INTO A DRYLINE BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR THURSDAY WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING MAINLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THAT SOME CONVECTION COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE BY NEXT THURSDAY.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

09/08







000
FXUS64 KAMA 201718 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1218 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REDUCE RAIN CHANCES AS MOST PLACES WILL STAY
DRY TODAY. ALSO BROUGHT A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE TO THE NW HALF FO THE
PANHANDLES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION.../12Z TAFS/
KAMA AND KDHT...GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 18Z WITH
BRIEF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION AFTER
08Z.

KGUY...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THINK THERE COULD BE SOME
VCSH AFTER 08Z BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

KNS

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

THE REMNANTS OF WHAT ONCE WAS HURRICANE ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
AREAS WEST AND SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES...HOWEVER THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF
THIS MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS COULD STILL POSSIBLY AFFECT THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ATTENTION SHIFTS TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVING
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TODAY AND THEN INTO THE
PANHANDLES TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE ROCKIES SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION MAINLY LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOL UPSLOPE
SURFACE FLOW MONDAY ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS.

SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BY
NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHICH ALLOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LIFT
NORTH AND EAST AS A WARM FRONT AND A SURFACE TROUGH SOUTH OF THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO ALSO DEEPENS BY MID NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK
AS SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS INCREASE INTO THE BREEZY
TO WINDY CATEGORY. SURFACE TROUGH MAY SHARPEN UP INTO A DRYLINE BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR THURSDAY WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING MAINLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THAT SOME CONVECTION COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE BY NEXT THURSDAY.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/09







000
FXUS64 KAMA 201718 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1218 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REDUCE RAIN CHANCES AS MOST PLACES WILL STAY
DRY TODAY. ALSO BROUGHT A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE TO THE NW HALF FO THE
PANHANDLES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION.../12Z TAFS/
KAMA AND KDHT...GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 18Z WITH
BRIEF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION AFTER
08Z.

KGUY...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THINK THERE COULD BE SOME
VCSH AFTER 08Z BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

KNS

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

THE REMNANTS OF WHAT ONCE WAS HURRICANE ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
AREAS WEST AND SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES...HOWEVER THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF
THIS MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS COULD STILL POSSIBLY AFFECT THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ATTENTION SHIFTS TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVING
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TODAY AND THEN INTO THE
PANHANDLES TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE ROCKIES SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION MAINLY LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOL UPSLOPE
SURFACE FLOW MONDAY ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS.

SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BY
NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHICH ALLOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LIFT
NORTH AND EAST AS A WARM FRONT AND A SURFACE TROUGH SOUTH OF THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO ALSO DEEPENS BY MID NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK
AS SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS INCREASE INTO THE BREEZY
TO WINDY CATEGORY. SURFACE TROUGH MAY SHARPEN UP INTO A DRYLINE BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR THURSDAY WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING MAINLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THAT SOME CONVECTION COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE BY NEXT THURSDAY.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/09






000
FXUS64 KAMA 201049 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
549 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z TAFS/
KAMA AND KDHT...GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 18Z WITH
BRIEF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION AFTER
08Z.

KGUY...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THINK THERE COULD BE SOME
VCSH AFTER 08Z BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

KNS

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

THE REMNANTS OF WHAT ONCE WAS HURRICANE ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
AREAS WEST AND SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES...HOWEVER THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF
THIS MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS COULD STILL POSSIBLY AFFECT THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ATTENTION SHIFTS TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVING
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TODAY AND THEN INTO THE
PANHANDLES TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE ROCKIES SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION MAINLY LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOL UPSLOPE
SURFACE FLOW MONDAY ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS.

SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BY
NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHICH ALLOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LIFT
NORTH AND EAST AS A WARM FRONT AND A SURFACE TROUGH SOUTH OF THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO ALSO DEEPENS BY MID NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK
AS SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS INCREASE INTO THE BREEZY
TO WINDY CATEGORY. SURFACE TROUGH MAY SHARPEN UP INTO A DRYLINE BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR THURSDAY WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING MAINLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THAT SOME CONVECTION COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE BY NEXT THURSDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KAMA 201049 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
549 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z TAFS/
KAMA AND KDHT...GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 18Z WITH
BRIEF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION AFTER
08Z.

KGUY...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THINK THERE COULD BE SOME
VCSH AFTER 08Z BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

KNS

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

THE REMNANTS OF WHAT ONCE WAS HURRICANE ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
AREAS WEST AND SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES...HOWEVER THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF
THIS MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS COULD STILL POSSIBLY AFFECT THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ATTENTION SHIFTS TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVING
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TODAY AND THEN INTO THE
PANHANDLES TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE ROCKIES SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION MAINLY LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOL UPSLOPE
SURFACE FLOW MONDAY ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS.

SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BY
NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHICH ALLOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LIFT
NORTH AND EAST AS A WARM FRONT AND A SURFACE TROUGH SOUTH OF THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO ALSO DEEPENS BY MID NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK
AS SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS INCREASE INTO THE BREEZY
TO WINDY CATEGORY. SURFACE TROUGH MAY SHARPEN UP INTO A DRYLINE BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR THURSDAY WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING MAINLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THAT SOME CONVECTION COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE BY NEXT THURSDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KAMA 200842
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
342 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE REMNANTS OF WHAT ONCE WAS HURRICANE ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
AREAS WEST AND SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES...HOWEVER THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF
THIS MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS COULD STILL POSSIBLY AFFECT THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ATTENTION SHIFTS TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVING
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TODAY AND THEN INTO THE
PANHANDLES TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE ROCKIES SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION MAINLY LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOL UPSLOPE
SURFACE FLOW MONDAY ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS.

SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BY
NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHICH ALLOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LIFT
NORTH AND EAST AS A WARM FRONT AND A SURFACE TROUGH SOUTH OF THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO ALSO DEEPENS BY MID NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK
AS SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS INCREASE INTO THE BREEZY
TO WINDY CATEGORY. SURFACE TROUGH MAY SHARPEN UP INTO A DRYLINE BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR THURSDAY WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING MAINLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THAT SOME CONVECTION COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE BY NEXT THURSDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                81  61  80  59  75 /  30  30  40  30  40
BEAVER OK                  87  64  80  58  81 /  10  20  20  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              84  59  77  58  76 /  10  20  30  30  30
BORGER TX                  86  65  80  62  77 /  10  20  30  20  40
BOYS RANCH TX              85  61  82  60  75 /  10  20  30  30  40
CANYON TX                  80  61  82  59  76 /  30  30  40  30  40
CLARENDON TX               82  64  83  61  78 /  50  30  30  30  40
DALHART TX                 84  60  77  59  75 /  10  20  30  30  40
GUYMON OK                  86  60  80  59  78 /  10  20  20  20  30
HEREFORD TX                80  61  80  59  76 /  30  30  40  40  40
LIPSCOMB TX                84  66  82  58  80 /  10  20  20  20  20
PAMPA TX                   82  63  78  60  75 /  30  20  30  20  30
SHAMROCK TX                85  65  85  61  80 /  40  20  30  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              86  65  87  62  82 /  50  30  30  20  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

20/11







000
FXUS64 KAMA 200450 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1150 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/ LOW CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO FILL IN OVER EASTERN NM AND
WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...EXPECT
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO FILL IN AT KAMA/KDHT. HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE IN
THIS OCCURRING AT KGUY SO HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION AT THIS TIME. TIMING
AND IMPACTS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD OCCUR AROUND 08-09Z ALTHOUGH
AMENDMENTS TO VISBYS ADN CIGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT. CLOUD
COVER WILL STICK AROUND SATURDAY MORNING WITH A GRADUAL RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS AT KAMA/KDHT NOT UNTIL AROUND 18-19Z. SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE TERIMINALS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 815 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

UPDATE...
HAVE GONE AND CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE CIRCULATION AND TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
ODILE OVER CENTRAL TX. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...SUBTLE FORCING SHOULD KEEP A DOWNWARD TREND
IN PRECIP DEVELOPMENT THOUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DID MAINTAIN A
MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT EXPECT THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE.

CLK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING SHOULD DETERIORATE TO MVFR LATE
TONIGHT AT KAMA/KDHT AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOP. LOW CLOUDS/FOG
CAN ALSO DEVELOP AT KGUY ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
SATURDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH EXPECT EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

CLK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE FIRST FEW PERIODS OF THE FORECAST REMAIN THOSE OF MOST
INTEREST...BUT RAIN CHANCES CERTAINLY WON`T LEAVE THE PANHANDLES AS
WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE SW TX
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT IS
PRETTY MINIMAL...BUT PRECIP EFFICIENCY IS PEGGED AT ABOUT THE MAX
FOR THE AREA GIVEN THE TROPICAL NATURE. WHAT WOULD SEEMINGLY BE
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ON RADAR ARE SPITTING OUT A HALF INCH OF
RAIN IN 20 MINUTE INTERVALS AS THEY PASS. HAVE THEREFORE LEFT THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE SW TX PANHANDLE, WHERE THE
SHOWERS ARE MOST WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON. THINK THAT THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME IS WHEN WE WILL SEE MOST OF OUR RAIN
FROM THIS EVENT. THINK ANY FLASH FLOODING WILL BE PRETTY LOCALIZED.

SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS MOISTURE REMAINS
DEEP AND PLENTIFUL. A GENERAL LACK OF FORCING MEANS AFTERNOON HOURS
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORED THAN OTHERS...THOUGH THE WEEK WILL
BE NO MEANS BE A WASHOUT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR MOST OF THE WEEK AS CLOUD COVER WILL BE QUITE
NOTICEABLE.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 200450 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1150 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/ LOW CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO FILL IN OVER EASTERN NM AND
WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...EXPECT
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO FILL IN AT KAMA/KDHT. HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE IN
THIS OCCURRING AT KGUY SO HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION AT THIS TIME. TIMING
AND IMPACTS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD OCCUR AROUND 08-09Z ALTHOUGH
AMENDMENTS TO VISBYS ADN CIGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT. CLOUD
COVER WILL STICK AROUND SATURDAY MORNING WITH A GRADUAL RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS AT KAMA/KDHT NOT UNTIL AROUND 18-19Z. SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE TERIMINALS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 815 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

UPDATE...
HAVE GONE AND CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE CIRCULATION AND TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
ODILE OVER CENTRAL TX. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...SUBTLE FORCING SHOULD KEEP A DOWNWARD TREND
IN PRECIP DEVELOPMENT THOUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DID MAINTAIN A
MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT EXPECT THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE.

CLK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING SHOULD DETERIORATE TO MVFR LATE
TONIGHT AT KAMA/KDHT AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOP. LOW CLOUDS/FOG
CAN ALSO DEVELOP AT KGUY ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
SATURDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH EXPECT EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

CLK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE FIRST FEW PERIODS OF THE FORECAST REMAIN THOSE OF MOST
INTEREST...BUT RAIN CHANCES CERTAINLY WON`T LEAVE THE PANHANDLES AS
WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE SW TX
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT IS
PRETTY MINIMAL...BUT PRECIP EFFICIENCY IS PEGGED AT ABOUT THE MAX
FOR THE AREA GIVEN THE TROPICAL NATURE. WHAT WOULD SEEMINGLY BE
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ON RADAR ARE SPITTING OUT A HALF INCH OF
RAIN IN 20 MINUTE INTERVALS AS THEY PASS. HAVE THEREFORE LEFT THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE SW TX PANHANDLE, WHERE THE
SHOWERS ARE MOST WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON. THINK THAT THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME IS WHEN WE WILL SEE MOST OF OUR RAIN
FROM THIS EVENT. THINK ANY FLASH FLOODING WILL BE PRETTY LOCALIZED.

SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS MOISTURE REMAINS
DEEP AND PLENTIFUL. A GENERAL LACK OF FORCING MEANS AFTERNOON HOURS
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORED THAN OTHERS...THOUGH THE WEEK WILL
BE NO MEANS BE A WASHOUT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR MOST OF THE WEEK AS CLOUD COVER WILL BE QUITE
NOTICEABLE.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KAMA 200115 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
815 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE GONE AND CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE CIRCULATION AND TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
ODILE OVER CENTRAL TX. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...SUBTLE FORCING SHOULD KEEP A DOWNWARD TREND
IN PRECIP DEVELOPMENT THOUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DID MAINTAIN A
MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT EXPECT THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING SHOULD DETERIORATE TO MVFR LATE
TONIGHT AT KAMA/KDHT AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOP. LOW CLOUDS/FOG
CAN ALSO DEVELOP AT KGUY ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
SATURDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH EXPECT EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

CLK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE FIRST FEW PERIODS OF THE FORECAST REMAIN THOSE OF MOST
INTEREST...BUT RAIN CHANCES CERTAINLY WON`T LEAVE THE PANHANDLES AS
WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE SW TX
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT IS
PRETTY MINIMAL...BUT PRECIP EFFICIENCY IS PEGGED AT ABOUT THE MAX
FOR THE AREA GIVEN THE TROPICAL NATURE. WHAT WOULD SEEMINGLY BE
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ON RADAR ARE SPITTING OUT A HALF INCH OF
RAIN IN 20 MINUTE INTERVALS AS THEY PASS. HAVE THEREFORE LEFT THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE SW TX PANHANDLE, WHERE THE
SHOWERS ARE MOST WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON. THINK THAT THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME IS WHEN WE WILL SEE MOST OF OUR RAIN
FROM THIS EVENT. THINK ANY FLASH FLOODING WILL BE PRETTY LOCALIZED.

SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS MOISTURE REMAINS
DEEP AND PLENTIFUL. A GENERAL LACK OF FORCING MEANS AFTERNOON HOURS
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORED THAN OTHERS...THOUGH THE WEEK WILL
BE NO MEANS BE A WASHOUT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR MOST OF THE WEEK AS CLOUD COVER WILL BE QUITE
NOTICEABLE.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 200115 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
815 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE GONE AND CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE CIRCULATION AND TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
ODILE OVER CENTRAL TX. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...SUBTLE FORCING SHOULD KEEP A DOWNWARD TREND
IN PRECIP DEVELOPMENT THOUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DID MAINTAIN A
MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT EXPECT THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING SHOULD DETERIORATE TO MVFR LATE
TONIGHT AT KAMA/KDHT AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOP. LOW CLOUDS/FOG
CAN ALSO DEVELOP AT KGUY ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
SATURDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH EXPECT EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

CLK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE FIRST FEW PERIODS OF THE FORECAST REMAIN THOSE OF MOST
INTEREST...BUT RAIN CHANCES CERTAINLY WON`T LEAVE THE PANHANDLES AS
WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE SW TX
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT IS
PRETTY MINIMAL...BUT PRECIP EFFICIENCY IS PEGGED AT ABOUT THE MAX
FOR THE AREA GIVEN THE TROPICAL NATURE. WHAT WOULD SEEMINGLY BE
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ON RADAR ARE SPITTING OUT A HALF INCH OF
RAIN IN 20 MINUTE INTERVALS AS THEY PASS. HAVE THEREFORE LEFT THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE SW TX PANHANDLE, WHERE THE
SHOWERS ARE MOST WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON. THINK THAT THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME IS WHEN WE WILL SEE MOST OF OUR RAIN
FROM THIS EVENT. THINK ANY FLASH FLOODING WILL BE PRETTY LOCALIZED.

SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS MOISTURE REMAINS
DEEP AND PLENTIFUL. A GENERAL LACK OF FORCING MEANS AFTERNOON HOURS
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORED THAN OTHERS...THOUGH THE WEEK WILL
BE NO MEANS BE A WASHOUT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR MOST OF THE WEEK AS CLOUD COVER WILL BE QUITE
NOTICEABLE.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 192358 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
658 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING SHOULD DETERIORATE TO MVFR LATE
TONIGHT AT KAMA/KDHT AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOP. LOW CLOUDS/FOG
CAN ALSO DEVELOP AT KGUY ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
SATURDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH EXPECT EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE FIRST FEW PERIODS OF THE FORECAST REMAIN THOSE OF MOST
INTEREST...BUT RAIN CHANCES CERTAINLY WON`T LEAVE THE PANHANDLES AS
WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE SW TX
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT IS
PRETTY MINIMAL...BUT PRECIP EFFICIENCY IS PEGGED AT ABOUT THE MAX
FOR THE AREA GIVEN THE TROPICAL NATURE. WHAT WOULD SEEMINGLY BE
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ON RADAR ARE SPITTING OUT A HALF INCH OF
RAIN IN 20 MINUTE INTERVALS AS THEY PASS. HAVE THEREFORE LEFT THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE SW TX PANHANDLE, WHERE THE
SHOWERS ARE MOST WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON. THINK THAT THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME IS WHEN WE WILL SEE MOST OF OUR RAIN
FROM THIS EVENT. THINK ANY FLASH FLOODING WILL BE PRETTY LOCALIZED.

SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS MOISTURE REMAINS
DEEP AND PLENTIFUL. A GENERAL LACK OF FORCING MEANS AFTERNOON HOURS
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORED THAN OTHERS...THOUGH THE WEEK WILL
BE NO MEANS BE A WASHOUT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR MOST OF THE WEEK AS CLOUD COVER WILL BE QUITE
NOTICEABLE.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DEAF SMITH...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL.

OK...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 192358 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
658 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING SHOULD DETERIORATE TO MVFR LATE
TONIGHT AT KAMA/KDHT AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOP. LOW CLOUDS/FOG
CAN ALSO DEVELOP AT KGUY ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
SATURDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH EXPECT EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE FIRST FEW PERIODS OF THE FORECAST REMAIN THOSE OF MOST
INTEREST...BUT RAIN CHANCES CERTAINLY WON`T LEAVE THE PANHANDLES AS
WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE SW TX
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT IS
PRETTY MINIMAL...BUT PRECIP EFFICIENCY IS PEGGED AT ABOUT THE MAX
FOR THE AREA GIVEN THE TROPICAL NATURE. WHAT WOULD SEEMINGLY BE
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ON RADAR ARE SPITTING OUT A HALF INCH OF
RAIN IN 20 MINUTE INTERVALS AS THEY PASS. HAVE THEREFORE LEFT THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE SW TX PANHANDLE, WHERE THE
SHOWERS ARE MOST WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON. THINK THAT THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME IS WHEN WE WILL SEE MOST OF OUR RAIN
FROM THIS EVENT. THINK ANY FLASH FLOODING WILL BE PRETTY LOCALIZED.

SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS MOISTURE REMAINS
DEEP AND PLENTIFUL. A GENERAL LACK OF FORCING MEANS AFTERNOON HOURS
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORED THAN OTHERS...THOUGH THE WEEK WILL
BE NO MEANS BE A WASHOUT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR MOST OF THE WEEK AS CLOUD COVER WILL BE QUITE
NOTICEABLE.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DEAF SMITH...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL.

OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 192129
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
429 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE FIRST FEW PERIODS OF THE FORECAST REMAIN THOSE OF MOST
INTEREST...BUT RAIN CHANCES CERTAINLY WON`T LEAVE THE PANHANDLES AS
WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE SW TX
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT IS
PRETTY MINIMAL...BUT PRECIP EFFICIENCY IS PEGGED AT ABOUT THE MAX
FOR THE AREA GIVEN THE TROPICAL NATURE. WHAT WOULD SEEMINGLY BE
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ON RADAR ARE SPITTING OUT A HALF INCH OF
RAIN IN 20 MINUTE INTERVALS AS THEY PASS. HAVE THEREFORE LEFT THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE SW TX PANHANDLE, WHERE THE
SHOWERS ARE MOST WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON. THINK THAT THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING TIMEFRAME IS WHEN WE WILL SEE MOST OF OUR RAIN
FROM THIS EVENT. THINK ANY FLASH FLOODING WILL BE PRETTY LOCALIZED.

SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS MOISTURE REMAINS
DEEP AND PLENTIFUL. A GENERAL LACK OF FORCING MEANS AFTERNOON HOURS
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORED THAN OTHERS...THOUGH THE WEEK WILL
BE NO MEANS BE A WASHOUT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR MOST OF THE WEEK AS CLOUD COVER WILL BE QUITE
NOTICEABLE.

SIMPSON
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                63  79  62  78  61 /  60  50  30  30  40
BEAVER OK                  66  87  65  82  60 /  20  30  20  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              61  83  61  78  59 /  20  20  20  20  20
BORGER TX                  65  84  65  81  63 /  50  40  30  30  30
BOYS RANCH TX              63  82  63  81  62 /  60  40  30  30  40
CANYON TX                  64  78  62  79  61 /  60  50  30  30  40
CLARENDON TX               66  81  65  82  63 /  60  60  30  30  30
DALHART TX                 62  81  61  79  60 /  40  30  20  30  30
GUYMON OK                  64  86  63  81  61 /  30  30  20  20  20
HEREFORD TX                63  77  62  77  61 /  60  50  30  40  40
LIPSCOMB TX                65  85  65  82  61 /  30  30  20  30  20
PAMPA TX                   64  81  64  80  62 /  50  50  30  30  30
SHAMROCK TX                67  84  66  84  63 /  50  50  30  30  30
WELLINGTON TX              67  85  67  86  64 /  50  60  30  30  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DEAF SMITH...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL.

OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/09






000
FXUS64 KAMA 192129
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
429 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE FIRST FEW PERIODS OF THE FORECAST REMAIN THOSE OF MOST
INTEREST...BUT RAIN CHANCES CERTAINLY WON`T LEAVE THE PANHANDLES AS
WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE SW TX
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT IS
PRETTY MINIMAL...BUT PRECIP EFFICIENCY IS PEGGED AT ABOUT THE MAX
FOR THE AREA GIVEN THE TROPICAL NATURE. WHAT WOULD SEEMINGLY BE
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ON RADAR ARE SPITTING OUT A HALF INCH OF
RAIN IN 20 MINUTE INTERVALS AS THEY PASS. HAVE THEREFORE LEFT THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE SW TX PANHANDLE, WHERE THE
SHOWERS ARE MOST WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON. THINK THAT THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING TIMEFRAME IS WHEN WE WILL SEE MOST OF OUR RAIN
FROM THIS EVENT. THINK ANY FLASH FLOODING WILL BE PRETTY LOCALIZED.

SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS MOISTURE REMAINS
DEEP AND PLENTIFUL. A GENERAL LACK OF FORCING MEANS AFTERNOON HOURS
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORED THAN OTHERS...THOUGH THE WEEK WILL
BE NO MEANS BE A WASHOUT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR MOST OF THE WEEK AS CLOUD COVER WILL BE QUITE
NOTICEABLE.

SIMPSON
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                63  79  62  78  61 /  60  50  30  30  40
BEAVER OK                  66  87  65  82  60 /  20  30  20  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              61  83  61  78  59 /  20  20  20  20  20
BORGER TX                  65  84  65  81  63 /  50  40  30  30  30
BOYS RANCH TX              63  82  63  81  62 /  60  40  30  30  40
CANYON TX                  64  78  62  79  61 /  60  50  30  30  40
CLARENDON TX               66  81  65  82  63 /  60  60  30  30  30
DALHART TX                 62  81  61  79  60 /  40  30  20  30  30
GUYMON OK                  64  86  63  81  61 /  30  30  20  20  20
HEREFORD TX                63  77  62  77  61 /  60  50  30  40  40
LIPSCOMB TX                65  85  65  82  61 /  30  30  20  30  20
PAMPA TX                   64  81  64  80  62 /  50  50  30  30  30
SHAMROCK TX                67  84  66  84  63 /  50  50  30  30  30
WELLINGTON TX              67  85  67  86  64 /  50  60  30  30  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DEAF SMITH...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL.

OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/09







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