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000
FXUS64 KAMA 250444 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1144 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS AVIATION AFD REASONING.
S TO SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AROUND MID TO LATE MORNING FRIDAY AND
PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 01Z SATURDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT.THESE
EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS ARE IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING SFC TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE ERN PLAINS OF CO AND ERN NM. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ON OCCASION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SE THIS EVENING...
THEN SW LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AND PERSIST FROM THAT DIRECTION
THE REST OF THIS FCST CYCLE. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING
THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THRU FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE ERN PLAINS
OF CO AND ERN NM. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ON OCCASION. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MUCH QUIETER WX WAS SEEN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE SEVERE STORMS TO THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT WHILE A
SURFACE LEE SIDE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL SWING BACK AROUND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST LEADING TO
A MUCH WARMER DAY /WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S/.

LONG TERM...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WILL CENTER OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW APPROACHES THE AREA.

AN UPPER RIDGE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
AHEAD OF A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. DRY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH SOME
LOCATIONS TAGGING THE 90 DEGREE MARK. A DRYLINE WILL MIX INTO THE
EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES ALTHOUGH ITS STILL UNCERTAIN
HOW FAR EAST THIS DRYLINE WILL MOVE TO DESPITE THE MAJORITY OF THE
MODELS PLACING IT NEAR THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. HAVE OPTED TO
MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. IF STORMS
DEVELOP EAST OF THE DRYLINE...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES CAN RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. A PACIFIC FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG WINDS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE PRESENT AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AS THE CORE OF THE
UPPER SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE AMA CWA.

EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A DRY AND COOLER WX PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
ALTHOUGH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 5 TO 15 PERCENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...20 FOOT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 MPH
LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A BRIEF WINDOW WHERE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR SO HAVE OPTED TO NOT ISSUE A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK MORE
LIKELY SATURDAY AS 20 FOOT WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WHILE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO 5 TO 15 PERCENT. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
MAY BE ABOVE 20 PERCENT...AS THEY WILL BE LOCATED EAST OF A DRYLINE
THAT IS FORECAST TO MIX TO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES IN THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO MOVE ACROSS THIS AREA
WHILE THE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE LOW FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHILE COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 20 PERCENT MID WEEK NEXT WEEK SHOULD
PRECLUDE ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 250444 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1144 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS AVIATION AFD REASONING.
S TO SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AROUND MID TO LATE MORNING FRIDAY AND
PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 01Z SATURDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT.THESE
EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS ARE IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING SFC TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE ERN PLAINS OF CO AND ERN NM. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ON OCCASION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SE THIS EVENING...
THEN SW LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AND PERSIST FROM THAT DIRECTION
THE REST OF THIS FCST CYCLE. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING
THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THRU FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE ERN PLAINS
OF CO AND ERN NM. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ON OCCASION. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MUCH QUIETER WX WAS SEEN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE SEVERE STORMS TO THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT WHILE A
SURFACE LEE SIDE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL SWING BACK AROUND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST LEADING TO
A MUCH WARMER DAY /WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S/.

LONG TERM...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WILL CENTER OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW APPROACHES THE AREA.

AN UPPER RIDGE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
AHEAD OF A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. DRY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH SOME
LOCATIONS TAGGING THE 90 DEGREE MARK. A DRYLINE WILL MIX INTO THE
EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES ALTHOUGH ITS STILL UNCERTAIN
HOW FAR EAST THIS DRYLINE WILL MOVE TO DESPITE THE MAJORITY OF THE
MODELS PLACING IT NEAR THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. HAVE OPTED TO
MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. IF STORMS
DEVELOP EAST OF THE DRYLINE...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES CAN RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. A PACIFIC FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG WINDS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE PRESENT AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AS THE CORE OF THE
UPPER SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE AMA CWA.

EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A DRY AND COOLER WX PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
ALTHOUGH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 5 TO 15 PERCENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...20 FOOT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 MPH
LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A BRIEF WINDOW WHERE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR SO HAVE OPTED TO NOT ISSUE A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK MORE
LIKELY SATURDAY AS 20 FOOT WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WHILE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO 5 TO 15 PERCENT. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
MAY BE ABOVE 20 PERCENT...AS THEY WILL BE LOCATED EAST OF A DRYLINE
THAT IS FORECAST TO MIX TO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES IN THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO MOVE ACROSS THIS AREA
WHILE THE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE LOW FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHILE COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 20 PERCENT MID WEEK NEXT WEEK SHOULD
PRECLUDE ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 242343 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
643 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SE THIS EVENING...
THEN SW LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AND PERSIST FROM THAT DIRECTION
THE REST OF THIS FCST CYCLE. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING
THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THRU FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE ERN PLAINS
OF CO AND ERN NM. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ON OCCASION. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MUCH QUIETER WX WAS SEEN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE SEVERE STORMS TO THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT WHILE A
SURFACE LEE SIDE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL SWING BACK AROUND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST LEADING TO
A MUCH WARMER DAY /WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S/.

LONG TERM...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WILL CENTER OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW APPROACHES THE AREA.

AN UPPER RIDGE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
AHEAD OF A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. DRY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH SOME
LOCATIONS TAGGING THE 90 DEGREE MARK. A DRYLINE WILL MIX INTO THE
EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES ALTHOUGH ITS STILL UNCERTAIN
HOW FAR EAST THIS DRYLINE WILL MOVE TO DESPITE THE MAJORITY OF THE
MODELS PLACING IT NEAR THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. HAVE OPTED TO
MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. IF STORMS
DEVELOP EAST OF THE DRYLINE...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES CAN RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. A PACIFIC FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG WINDS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE PRESENT AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AS THE CORE OF THE
UPPER SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE AMA CWA.

EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A DRY AND COOLER WX PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
ALTHOUGH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 5 TO 15 PERCENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...20 FOOT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 MPH
LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A BRIEF WINDOW WHERE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR SO HAVE OPTED TO NOT ISSUE A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK MORE
LIKELY SATURDAY AS 20 FOOT WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WHILE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO 5 TO 15 PERCENT. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
MAY BE ABOVE 20 PERCENT...AS THEY WILL BE LOCATED EAST OF A DRYLINE
THAT IS FORECAST TO MIX TO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES IN THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO MOVE ACROSS THIS AREA
WHILE THE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE LOW FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHILE COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 20 PERCENT MID WEEK NEXT WEEK SHOULD
PRECLUDE ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 242343 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
643 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SE THIS EVENING...
THEN SW LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AND PERSIST FROM THAT DIRECTION
THE REST OF THIS FCST CYCLE. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING
THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THRU FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE ERN PLAINS
OF CO AND ERN NM. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ON OCCASION. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MUCH QUIETER WX WAS SEEN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE SEVERE STORMS TO THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT WHILE A
SURFACE LEE SIDE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL SWING BACK AROUND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST LEADING TO
A MUCH WARMER DAY /WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S/.

LONG TERM...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WILL CENTER OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW APPROACHES THE AREA.

AN UPPER RIDGE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
AHEAD OF A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. DRY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH SOME
LOCATIONS TAGGING THE 90 DEGREE MARK. A DRYLINE WILL MIX INTO THE
EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES ALTHOUGH ITS STILL UNCERTAIN
HOW FAR EAST THIS DRYLINE WILL MOVE TO DESPITE THE MAJORITY OF THE
MODELS PLACING IT NEAR THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. HAVE OPTED TO
MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. IF STORMS
DEVELOP EAST OF THE DRYLINE...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES CAN RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. A PACIFIC FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG WINDS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE PRESENT AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AS THE CORE OF THE
UPPER SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE AMA CWA.

EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A DRY AND COOLER WX PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
ALTHOUGH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 5 TO 15 PERCENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...20 FOOT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 MPH
LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A BRIEF WINDOW WHERE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR SO HAVE OPTED TO NOT ISSUE A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK MORE
LIKELY SATURDAY AS 20 FOOT WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WHILE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO 5 TO 15 PERCENT. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
MAY BE ABOVE 20 PERCENT...AS THEY WILL BE LOCATED EAST OF A DRYLINE
THAT IS FORECAST TO MIX TO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES IN THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO MOVE ACROSS THIS AREA
WHILE THE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE LOW FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHILE COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 20 PERCENT MID WEEK NEXT WEEK SHOULD
PRECLUDE ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 242042
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
342 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...
MUCH QUIETER WX WAS SEEN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE SEVERE STORMS TO THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT WHILE A
SURFACE LEE SIDE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL SWING BACK AROUND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST LEADING TO
A MUCH WARMER DAY /WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S/.

.LONG TERM...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WILL CENTER OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW APPROACHES THE AREA.

AN UPPER RIDGE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
AHEAD OF A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. DRY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH SOME
LOCATIONS TAGGING THE 90 DEGREE MARK. A DRYLINE WILL MIX INTO THE
EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES ALTHOUGH ITS STILL UNCERTAIN
HOW FAR EAST THIS DRYLINE WILL MOVE TO DESPITE THE MAJORITY OF THE
MODELS PLACING IT NEAR THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. HAVE OPTED TO
MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. IF STORMS
DEVELOP EAST OF THE DRYLINE...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES CAN RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. A PACIFIC FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG WINDS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE PRESENT AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AS THE CORE OF THE
UPPER SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE AMA CWA.

EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A DRY AND COOLER WX PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

CLK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ALTHOUGH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 5 TO 15 PERCENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...20 FOOT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 MPH
LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A BRIEF WINDOW WHERE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR SO HAVE OPTED TO NOT ISSUE A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK MORE
LIKELY SATURDAY AS 20 FOOT WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WHILE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO 5 TO 15 PERCENT. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
MAY BE ABOVE 20 PERCENT...AS THEY WILL BE LOCATED EAST OF A DRYLINE
THAT IS FORECAST TO MIX TO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES IN THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO MOVE ACROSS THIS AREA
WHILE THE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE LOW FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHILE COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 20 PERCENT MID WEEK NEXT WEEK SHOULD
PRECLUDE ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

CLK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                43  88  53  86  45 /   0   0   0   5  10
BEAVER OK                  42  87  51  91  52 /   0   0   0   5  20
BOISE CITY OK              39  87  48  83  41 /   0   0   0   0  10
BORGER TX                  49  89  58  87  51 /   0   0   0   5  10
BOYS RANCH TX              43  89  51  87  45 /   0   0   0   0  10
CANYON TX                  43  88  51  87  45 /   0   0   0   0  10
CLARENDON TX               47  87  56  88  52 /   0   0   0  10  20
DALHART TX                 36  87  43  84  39 /   0   0   0   0  10
GUYMON OK                  39  89  49  87  48 /   0   0   0   0  10
HEREFORD TX                42  87  50  86  43 /   0   0   0   0  10
LIPSCOMB TX                44  83  52  89  55 /   0   0   0  10  20
PAMPA TX                   47  86  55  86  49 /   0   0   0  10  20
SHAMROCK TX                48  84  55  87  55 /   0   0   0  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              48  86  57  89  55 /   0   0   0  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/05







000
FXUS64 KAMA 242042
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
342 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...
MUCH QUIETER WX WAS SEEN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE SEVERE STORMS TO THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT WHILE A
SURFACE LEE SIDE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL SWING BACK AROUND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST LEADING TO
A MUCH WARMER DAY /WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S/.

.LONG TERM...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WILL CENTER OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW APPROACHES THE AREA.

AN UPPER RIDGE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
AHEAD OF A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. DRY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH SOME
LOCATIONS TAGGING THE 90 DEGREE MARK. A DRYLINE WILL MIX INTO THE
EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES ALTHOUGH ITS STILL UNCERTAIN
HOW FAR EAST THIS DRYLINE WILL MOVE TO DESPITE THE MAJORITY OF THE
MODELS PLACING IT NEAR THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. HAVE OPTED TO
MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. IF STORMS
DEVELOP EAST OF THE DRYLINE...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES CAN RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. A PACIFIC FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG WINDS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE PRESENT AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AS THE CORE OF THE
UPPER SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE AMA CWA.

EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A DRY AND COOLER WX PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

CLK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ALTHOUGH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 5 TO 15 PERCENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...20 FOOT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 MPH
LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A BRIEF WINDOW WHERE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR SO HAVE OPTED TO NOT ISSUE A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK MORE
LIKELY SATURDAY AS 20 FOOT WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WHILE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO 5 TO 15 PERCENT. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
MAY BE ABOVE 20 PERCENT...AS THEY WILL BE LOCATED EAST OF A DRYLINE
THAT IS FORECAST TO MIX TO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES IN THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO MOVE ACROSS THIS AREA
WHILE THE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE LOW FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHILE COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 20 PERCENT MID WEEK NEXT WEEK SHOULD
PRECLUDE ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

CLK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                43  88  53  86  45 /   0   0   0   5  10
BEAVER OK                  42  87  51  91  52 /   0   0   0   5  20
BOISE CITY OK              39  87  48  83  41 /   0   0   0   0  10
BORGER TX                  49  89  58  87  51 /   0   0   0   5  10
BOYS RANCH TX              43  89  51  87  45 /   0   0   0   0  10
CANYON TX                  43  88  51  87  45 /   0   0   0   0  10
CLARENDON TX               47  87  56  88  52 /   0   0   0  10  20
DALHART TX                 36  87  43  84  39 /   0   0   0   0  10
GUYMON OK                  39  89  49  87  48 /   0   0   0   0  10
HEREFORD TX                42  87  50  86  43 /   0   0   0   0  10
LIPSCOMB TX                44  83  52  89  55 /   0   0   0  10  20
PAMPA TX                   47  86  55  86  49 /   0   0   0  10  20
SHAMROCK TX                48  84  55  87  55 /   0   0   0  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              48  86  57  89  55 /   0   0   0  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/05








000
FXUS64 KAMA 241702
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1202 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CURRENT
GUSTY WINDS AT THE TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS WE MOVE INTO
THE EARLY EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO ROTATE
BACK TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT. TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TAF
ISSUANCE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 KTS WILL RETURN TO THE TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014/

UPDATE...
WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE
NORTH. THEREFORE HAVE LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE.

AVIATION...
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH
THE DAY. AFTER A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS
EVENING...WINDS SHOULD COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH. SKIES WILL REMAIN
VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT. CURRENTLY HAVE THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
UNDER A WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM. WINDS WILL SLOWLY BACK OFF AFTER
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LEADING TO RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WEATHER IN OUR AREA WILL HAVE TO WAIT
TILL SATURDAY WHEN THE DRYLINE SETS UP IN THE EAST AGAIN. DECENT
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO
FORM. THINK MOST STORMS WILL STAY IN OKLAHOMA, HOWEVER IF THEY DO
FORM IN OUR AREA PRIMARY HAZARD AGAIN LOOKS TO BE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS IN PART DUE TO THE RELATIVELY HIGH LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVELS. ON
SATURDAY THE STORY FOR MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE THE HIGH WINDS AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES LEADING TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. AGAIN ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL BE
HIGH ACROSS THE AREA AND ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST.

WE WILL HAVE TO WAVE GOODBYE TO THE PACIFIC FRONT AS IT PASSES BY ON
ITS WAY TO A VACATION IN THE CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL CAUSE OUR WINDS TO
BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST/NORTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER WILL STICK AROUND AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

MOULTON

FIRE WEATHER...
BRIEF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD EXIST THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AROUND NOON. HOWEVER AT THIS
TIME THINK THAT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WONT GO BELOW 20 PERCENT
UNTIL THE WINDS BEHIND THE OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT HAVE DIMINISHED TO
BELOW 20 MPH. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS
PANHANDLE DUE TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
AROUND 5 TO 15 PERCENT. AGAIN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND
GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/05






000
FXUS64 KAMA 241702
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1202 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CURRENT
GUSTY WINDS AT THE TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS WE MOVE INTO
THE EARLY EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO ROTATE
BACK TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT. TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TAF
ISSUANCE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 KTS WILL RETURN TO THE TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014/

UPDATE...
WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE
NORTH. THEREFORE HAVE LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE.

AVIATION...
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH
THE DAY. AFTER A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS
EVENING...WINDS SHOULD COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH. SKIES WILL REMAIN
VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT. CURRENTLY HAVE THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
UNDER A WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM. WINDS WILL SLOWLY BACK OFF AFTER
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LEADING TO RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WEATHER IN OUR AREA WILL HAVE TO WAIT
TILL SATURDAY WHEN THE DRYLINE SETS UP IN THE EAST AGAIN. DECENT
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO
FORM. THINK MOST STORMS WILL STAY IN OKLAHOMA, HOWEVER IF THEY DO
FORM IN OUR AREA PRIMARY HAZARD AGAIN LOOKS TO BE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS IN PART DUE TO THE RELATIVELY HIGH LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVELS. ON
SATURDAY THE STORY FOR MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE THE HIGH WINDS AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES LEADING TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. AGAIN ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL BE
HIGH ACROSS THE AREA AND ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST.

WE WILL HAVE TO WAVE GOODBYE TO THE PACIFIC FRONT AS IT PASSES BY ON
ITS WAY TO A VACATION IN THE CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL CAUSE OUR WINDS TO
BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST/NORTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER WILL STICK AROUND AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

MOULTON

FIRE WEATHER...
BRIEF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD EXIST THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AROUND NOON. HOWEVER AT THIS
TIME THINK THAT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WONT GO BELOW 20 PERCENT
UNTIL THE WINDS BEHIND THE OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT HAVE DIMINISHED TO
BELOW 20 MPH. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS
PANHANDLE DUE TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
AROUND 5 TO 15 PERCENT. AGAIN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND
GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/05







000
FXUS64 KAMA 241203 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
703 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE
NORTH. THEREFORE HAVE LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE.

&&

.AVIATION...
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH
THE DAY. AFTER A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS
EVENING...WINDS SHOULD COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH. SKIES WILL REMAIN
VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT. CURRENTLY HAVE THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
UNDER A WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM. WINDS WILL SLOWLY BACK OFF AFTER
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LEADING TO RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WEATHER IN OUR AREA WILL HAVE TO WAIT
TILL SATURDAY WHEN THE DRYLINE SETS UP IN THE EAST AGAIN. DECENT
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO
FORM. THINK MOST STORMS WILL STAY IN OKLAHOMA, HOWEVER IF THEY DO
FORM IN OUR AREA PRIMARY HAZARD AGAIN LOOKS TO BE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS IN PART DUE TO THE RELATIVELY HIGH LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVELS. ON
SATURDAY THE STORY FOR MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE THE HIGH WINDS AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES LEADING TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. AGAIN ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL BE
HIGH ACROSS THE AREA AND ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST.

WE WILL HAVE TO WAVE GOODBYE TO THE PACIFIC FRONT AS IT PASSES BY ON
ITS WAY TO A VACATION IN THE CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL CAUSE OUR WINDS TO
BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST/NORTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER WILL STICK AROUND AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

MOULTON

FIRE WEATHER...
BRIEF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD EXIST THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AROUND NOON. HOWEVER AT THIS
TIME THINK THAT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WONT GO BELOW 20 PERCENT
UNTIL THE WINDS BEHIND THE OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT HAVE DIMINISHED TO
BELOW 20 MPH. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS
PANHANDLE DUE TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
AROUND 5 TO 15 PERCENT. AGAIN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND
GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/19






000
FXUS64 KAMA 241203 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
703 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE
NORTH. THEREFORE HAVE LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE.

&&

.AVIATION...
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH
THE DAY. AFTER A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS
EVENING...WINDS SHOULD COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH. SKIES WILL REMAIN
VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT. CURRENTLY HAVE THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
UNDER A WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM. WINDS WILL SLOWLY BACK OFF AFTER
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LEADING TO RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WEATHER IN OUR AREA WILL HAVE TO WAIT
TILL SATURDAY WHEN THE DRYLINE SETS UP IN THE EAST AGAIN. DECENT
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO
FORM. THINK MOST STORMS WILL STAY IN OKLAHOMA, HOWEVER IF THEY DO
FORM IN OUR AREA PRIMARY HAZARD AGAIN LOOKS TO BE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS IN PART DUE TO THE RELATIVELY HIGH LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVELS. ON
SATURDAY THE STORY FOR MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE THE HIGH WINDS AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES LEADING TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. AGAIN ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL BE
HIGH ACROSS THE AREA AND ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST.

WE WILL HAVE TO WAVE GOODBYE TO THE PACIFIC FRONT AS IT PASSES BY ON
ITS WAY TO A VACATION IN THE CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL CAUSE OUR WINDS TO
BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST/NORTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER WILL STICK AROUND AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

MOULTON

FIRE WEATHER...
BRIEF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD EXIST THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AROUND NOON. HOWEVER AT THIS
TIME THINK THAT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WONT GO BELOW 20 PERCENT
UNTIL THE WINDS BEHIND THE OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT HAVE DIMINISHED TO
BELOW 20 MPH. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS
PANHANDLE DUE TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
AROUND 5 TO 15 PERCENT. AGAIN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND
GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/19







000
FXUS64 KAMA 240830
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
330 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT. CURRENTLY HAVE THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
UNDER A WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM. WINDS WILL SLOWLY BACK OFF AFTER
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LEADING TO RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WEATHER IN OUR AREA WILL HAVE TO WAIT
TILL SATURDAY WHEN THE DRYLINE SETS UP IN THE EAST AGAIN. DECENT
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO
FORM. THINK MOST STORMS WILL STAY IN OKLAHOMA, HOWEVER IF THEY DO
FORM IN OUR AREA PRIMARY HAZARD AGAIN LOOKS TO BE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS IN PART DUE TO THE RELATIVELY HIGH LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVELS. ON
SATURDAY THE STORY FOR MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE THE HIGH WINDS AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES LEADING TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. AGAIN ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL BE
HIGH ACROSS THE AREA AND ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST.

WE WILL HAVE TO WAVE GOODBYE TO THE PACIFIC FRONT AS IT PASSES BY ON
ITS WAY TO A VACATION IN THE CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL CAUSE OUR WINDS TO
BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST/NORTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER WILL STICK AROUND AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

MOULTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BRIEF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD EXIST THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AROUND NOON. HOWEVER AT THIS
TIME THINK THAT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WONT GO BELOW 20 PERCENT
UNTIL THE WINDS BEHIND THE OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT HAVE DIMINISHED TO
BELOW 20 MPH. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS
PANHANDLE DUE TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
AROUND 5 TO 15 PERCENT. AGAIN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND
GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                72  44  86  53  87 /   0   0   0   0  10
BEAVER OK                  72  43  87  55  90 /   5   0   0   0  10
BOISE CITY OK              71  40  86  48  85 /   0   0   0   0   5
BORGER TX                  75  51  88  58  88 /   0   0   0   0  10
BOYS RANCH TX              75  44  89  51  88 /   0   0   0   0   5
CANYON TX                  73  44  86  51  88 /   0   0   0   0  10
CLARENDON TX               75  48  86  57  89 /   0   0   0   0  10
DALHART TX                 73  37  87  45  86 /   0   0   0   0   5
GUYMON OK                  73  42  88  51  88 /   0   0   0   0   5
HEREFORD TX                72  43  86  49  87 /   0   0   0   0   5
LIPSCOMB TX                73  44  83  58  89 /   5   0   0   0  10
PAMPA TX                   72  48  84  56  87 /   0   0   0   0  10
SHAMROCK TX                75  48  84  58  88 /   0   0   0   0  20
WELLINGTON TX              76  49  86  59  91 /   0   0   0   0  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...
     SHERMAN.

OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

15/19







000
FXUS64 KAMA 240830
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
330 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT. CURRENTLY HAVE THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
UNDER A WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM. WINDS WILL SLOWLY BACK OFF AFTER
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LEADING TO RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WEATHER IN OUR AREA WILL HAVE TO WAIT
TILL SATURDAY WHEN THE DRYLINE SETS UP IN THE EAST AGAIN. DECENT
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO
FORM. THINK MOST STORMS WILL STAY IN OKLAHOMA, HOWEVER IF THEY DO
FORM IN OUR AREA PRIMARY HAZARD AGAIN LOOKS TO BE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS IN PART DUE TO THE RELATIVELY HIGH LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVELS. ON
SATURDAY THE STORY FOR MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE THE HIGH WINDS AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES LEADING TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. AGAIN ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL BE
HIGH ACROSS THE AREA AND ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST.

WE WILL HAVE TO WAVE GOODBYE TO THE PACIFIC FRONT AS IT PASSES BY ON
ITS WAY TO A VACATION IN THE CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL CAUSE OUR WINDS TO
BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST/NORTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER WILL STICK AROUND AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

MOULTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BRIEF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD EXIST THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AROUND NOON. HOWEVER AT THIS
TIME THINK THAT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WONT GO BELOW 20 PERCENT
UNTIL THE WINDS BEHIND THE OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT HAVE DIMINISHED TO
BELOW 20 MPH. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS
PANHANDLE DUE TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
AROUND 5 TO 15 PERCENT. AGAIN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND
GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                72  44  86  53  87 /   0   0   0   0  10
BEAVER OK                  72  43  87  55  90 /   5   0   0   0  10
BOISE CITY OK              71  40  86  48  85 /   0   0   0   0   5
BORGER TX                  75  51  88  58  88 /   0   0   0   0  10
BOYS RANCH TX              75  44  89  51  88 /   0   0   0   0   5
CANYON TX                  73  44  86  51  88 /   0   0   0   0  10
CLARENDON TX               75  48  86  57  89 /   0   0   0   0  10
DALHART TX                 73  37  87  45  86 /   0   0   0   0   5
GUYMON OK                  73  42  88  51  88 /   0   0   0   0   5
HEREFORD TX                72  43  86  49  87 /   0   0   0   0   5
LIPSCOMB TX                73  44  83  58  89 /   5   0   0   0  10
PAMPA TX                   72  48  84  56  87 /   0   0   0   0  10
SHAMROCK TX                75  48  84  58  88 /   0   0   0   0  20
WELLINGTON TX              76  49  86  59  91 /   0   0   0   0  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...
     SHERMAN.

OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

15/19






000
FXUS64 KAMA 240546 AAE
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1246 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD A WIND ADVISORY TO THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY PICK
UP INTO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEHIND A COLD FRONT. 3 HOUR PRESSURE
RISES OF 8 MB ARE FOUND OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND THE CORE OF THESE
PRESSURE RISES CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT
EXPECT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS TO MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AS MODELS AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL LOSE
A LITTLE BIT OF ITS PUNCH BY THAT TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO NORTHERLY WINDS
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT. EXPECTED WIND
SHIFT WILL BE BY 06Z AT KGUY...07Z AT KDHT...AND 09Z AT KAMA. GUSTY
WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE WIND SPEEDS
EVENTUALLY DECREASING TO BELOW 12KTS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO IMPACT KGUY
OVERNIGHT...BUT THE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. ANY RAIN SHOWERS WOULD LIKELY BRING LOWER CEILINGS AND
GUSTY WINDS.

NF

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ENDING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF
FCST AREA AS OF 10 PM...AND HAVE ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO
EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 831 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...
TSTM ACTIVITY IS DONE FOR TONIGHT SO HAVE CANCELLED SVR TSTM WATCH 88
EARLY FOR ERN OK PNHDL AND ERN TX PNHDL. SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THRU THE REGION TONIGHT. MOST MODELS INCLUDING TTU WRF...NAM...GFS...
ECMWF...AND CMC BRING SOME LIGHT QPF IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO OK PNHDL LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND IN
ASSOCIATION WITH PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROF. DECIDED TO INSERT SLGT
CHC POPS FOR THE OK PNHDL TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS PSBLTY REST OF TONIGHT.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...
DRYLINE HAS PUSHED INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES...WITH ONGOING CONVECTION QUICKLY MOVING EAST OF THE AMA
CWA. ALTHOUGH THE DRYLINE HAS STALLED WEST OF A GUYMON TO AMARILLO
LINE...HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE AN ABSENCE OF ANY NEW DEVELOPMENT
EAST OF THE DRYLINE. SO HAVE GONE AND REMOVED THE FAR WESTERN STACK
OF COUNTIES OUT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88. WILL LIKELY REMOVE
THE REMAINING COUNTIES OUT OF THE WATCH BEFORE IT EXPIRES AT
11 PM CDT.

CLK

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ANY
CONVECTION REMAINING WELL EAST OF THE TERMINALS. STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS 20-30 KTS SUSTAINED WILL VEER TO THE WEST THEN TO THE NORTHWEST
AS A PACIFIC FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. BREEZY SUSTAINED NORTHWEST
WINDS 15-25 KTS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 KTS BY 16Z WITH WINDS FURTHER DIMINISHING AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CLK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SEVERE WEATHER QUICK SUMMARY...
OVERALL ON TRACK WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR AN ISO TOR ACROSS
SE TX PANHANDLE.
TIMING: THROUGH 9PM
HAZARDS: HAIL UP TO BASEBALLS, DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH, AND CHANCE
FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO
AREA: EAST OF A SILVERTON TO SPEARMAN TO HOOKER LINE

SCATTERED CLOUDS HAVE HINDERED THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE DRYLINE
BUT SURFACE OBS SHOW WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS INDICATES THE DRYLINE IS
STARTING TO DEVELOP ROUGHLY FROM SILVERTON TO SPEARMAN TO HOOKER.
LAPS ANALYSIS EAST OF THIS LINE SHOWS DECENT CAPE VALUES (~1500+
J/KG) WHICH MATCHES UP NICELY WITH OUR 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING (LAUNCHED
PRIOR TO THE DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT). THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES
HAS A NICE FETCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HI-RES MODELS ARE HAVING
A HARD TIME CATCHING UP TOO. WITH THAT CONSIDERATION LCL HEIGHTS IN
THAT AREA ARE LOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE MODELS. THIS WILL BE AN
AREA TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS THE LOWER LCL HEIGHTS, AND THE INCREASED
VEERING DUE TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS IN THIS AREA COULD LEND
ITSELF TO INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

THE SECONDARY VORT MAX MOVING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BE OUR
UPPER LEVEL FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR INITIAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS BEFORE TRANSITIONING
INTO A CLUSTER/LINEAR STRUCTURE. THEY ALSO CONTINUE TO FOCUS THIS
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUT FAR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES.

SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO END BY 9 PM AS THE
VARIOUS FACTORS BECOME OUT OF PHASE.

LONG TERM...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL CENTER OVER THE WEEKEND AS
A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW APPROACHES THE AREA.

PRIOR TO THIS SYSTEM...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE
OF A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL LEAD TO COOLER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY FRIDAY WHILE A SURFACE
LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BACK
INTO THE 80S FRIDAY. EVEN WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW FURTHER DEEPENS AND LIFTS FURTHER NORTH. NWP MODELS
DEPICT THE DRYLINE MIXING INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES ONCE AGAIN ALTHOUGH THE ORIENTATION OF THIS LOW MAY
PREVENT THE DRYLINE TO MIX TOO FAR EAST. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES FOR NOW. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CAN
RESULT IN ANOTHER CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. A PACIFIC FRONT
WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER
BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PRESENT ACROSS THE
AREA.

THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA ALOFT. THUS WILL SEE COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.

CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. A DRYLINE
WILL CONTINUE TO MIX INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...LEAVING DRY AND
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RANGE AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT BEFORE INCREASING TO ABOVE 20 PERCENT
LATE THIS EVENING. MARGINAL ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE NEAR 15 PERCENT
WHILE NORTHERLY WINDS RANGE NEAR 10 TO 20 MPH. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 5 TO 15 PERCENT. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. OUTSIDE
OF A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE CHANCE
FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE SLIM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...
     SHERMAN.

OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

15/19






000
FXUS64 KAMA 240546 AAE
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1246 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD A WIND ADVISORY TO THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY PICK
UP INTO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEHIND A COLD FRONT. 3 HOUR PRESSURE
RISES OF 8 MB ARE FOUND OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND THE CORE OF THESE
PRESSURE RISES CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT
EXPECT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS TO MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AS MODELS AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL LOSE
A LITTLE BIT OF ITS PUNCH BY THAT TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO NORTHERLY WINDS
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT. EXPECTED WIND
SHIFT WILL BE BY 06Z AT KGUY...07Z AT KDHT...AND 09Z AT KAMA. GUSTY
WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE WIND SPEEDS
EVENTUALLY DECREASING TO BELOW 12KTS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO IMPACT KGUY
OVERNIGHT...BUT THE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. ANY RAIN SHOWERS WOULD LIKELY BRING LOWER CEILINGS AND
GUSTY WINDS.

NF

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ENDING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF
FCST AREA AS OF 10 PM...AND HAVE ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO
EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 831 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...
TSTM ACTIVITY IS DONE FOR TONIGHT SO HAVE CANCELLED SVR TSTM WATCH 88
EARLY FOR ERN OK PNHDL AND ERN TX PNHDL. SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THRU THE REGION TONIGHT. MOST MODELS INCLUDING TTU WRF...NAM...GFS...
ECMWF...AND CMC BRING SOME LIGHT QPF IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO OK PNHDL LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND IN
ASSOCIATION WITH PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROF. DECIDED TO INSERT SLGT
CHC POPS FOR THE OK PNHDL TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS PSBLTY REST OF TONIGHT.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...
DRYLINE HAS PUSHED INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES...WITH ONGOING CONVECTION QUICKLY MOVING EAST OF THE AMA
CWA. ALTHOUGH THE DRYLINE HAS STALLED WEST OF A GUYMON TO AMARILLO
LINE...HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE AN ABSENCE OF ANY NEW DEVELOPMENT
EAST OF THE DRYLINE. SO HAVE GONE AND REMOVED THE FAR WESTERN STACK
OF COUNTIES OUT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88. WILL LIKELY REMOVE
THE REMAINING COUNTIES OUT OF THE WATCH BEFORE IT EXPIRES AT
11 PM CDT.

CLK

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ANY
CONVECTION REMAINING WELL EAST OF THE TERMINALS. STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS 20-30 KTS SUSTAINED WILL VEER TO THE WEST THEN TO THE NORTHWEST
AS A PACIFIC FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. BREEZY SUSTAINED NORTHWEST
WINDS 15-25 KTS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 KTS BY 16Z WITH WINDS FURTHER DIMINISHING AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CLK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SEVERE WEATHER QUICK SUMMARY...
OVERALL ON TRACK WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR AN ISO TOR ACROSS
SE TX PANHANDLE.
TIMING: THROUGH 9PM
HAZARDS: HAIL UP TO BASEBALLS, DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH, AND CHANCE
FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO
AREA: EAST OF A SILVERTON TO SPEARMAN TO HOOKER LINE

SCATTERED CLOUDS HAVE HINDERED THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE DRYLINE
BUT SURFACE OBS SHOW WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS INDICATES THE DRYLINE IS
STARTING TO DEVELOP ROUGHLY FROM SILVERTON TO SPEARMAN TO HOOKER.
LAPS ANALYSIS EAST OF THIS LINE SHOWS DECENT CAPE VALUES (~1500+
J/KG) WHICH MATCHES UP NICELY WITH OUR 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING (LAUNCHED
PRIOR TO THE DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT). THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES
HAS A NICE FETCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HI-RES MODELS ARE HAVING
A HARD TIME CATCHING UP TOO. WITH THAT CONSIDERATION LCL HEIGHTS IN
THAT AREA ARE LOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE MODELS. THIS WILL BE AN
AREA TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS THE LOWER LCL HEIGHTS, AND THE INCREASED
VEERING DUE TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS IN THIS AREA COULD LEND
ITSELF TO INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

THE SECONDARY VORT MAX MOVING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BE OUR
UPPER LEVEL FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR INITIAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS BEFORE TRANSITIONING
INTO A CLUSTER/LINEAR STRUCTURE. THEY ALSO CONTINUE TO FOCUS THIS
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUT FAR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES.

SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO END BY 9 PM AS THE
VARIOUS FACTORS BECOME OUT OF PHASE.

LONG TERM...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL CENTER OVER THE WEEKEND AS
A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW APPROACHES THE AREA.

PRIOR TO THIS SYSTEM...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE
OF A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL LEAD TO COOLER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY FRIDAY WHILE A SURFACE
LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BACK
INTO THE 80S FRIDAY. EVEN WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW FURTHER DEEPENS AND LIFTS FURTHER NORTH. NWP MODELS
DEPICT THE DRYLINE MIXING INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES ONCE AGAIN ALTHOUGH THE ORIENTATION OF THIS LOW MAY
PREVENT THE DRYLINE TO MIX TOO FAR EAST. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES FOR NOW. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CAN
RESULT IN ANOTHER CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. A PACIFIC FRONT
WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER
BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PRESENT ACROSS THE
AREA.

THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA ALOFT. THUS WILL SEE COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.

CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. A DRYLINE
WILL CONTINUE TO MIX INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...LEAVING DRY AND
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RANGE AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT BEFORE INCREASING TO ABOVE 20 PERCENT
LATE THIS EVENING. MARGINAL ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE NEAR 15 PERCENT
WHILE NORTHERLY WINDS RANGE NEAR 10 TO 20 MPH. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 5 TO 15 PERCENT. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. OUTSIDE
OF A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE CHANCE
FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE SLIM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...
     SHERMAN.

OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

15/19







000
FXUS64 KAMA 240400 AAE
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1100 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO NORTHERLY WINDS
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT. EXPECTED WIND
SHIFT WILL BE BY 06Z AT KGUY...07Z AT KDHT...AND 09Z AT KAMA. GUSTY
WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE WIND SPEEDS
EVENTUALLY DECREASING TO BELOW 12KTS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO IMPACT KGUY
OVERNIGHT...BUT THE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. ANY RAIN SHOWERS WOULD LIKELY BRING LOWER CEILINGS AND
GUSTY WINDS.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ENDING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF
FCST AREA AS OF 10 PM...AND HAVE ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO
EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 831 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...
TSTM ACTIVITY IS DONE FOR TONIGHT SO HAVE CANCELLED SVR TSTM WATCH 88
EARLY FOR ERN OK PNHDL AND ERN TX PNHDL. SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THRU THE REGION TONIGHT. MOST MODELS INCLUDING TTU WRF...NAM...GFS...
ECMWF...AND CMC BRING SOME LIGHT QPF IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO OK PNHDL LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND IN
ASSOCIATION WITH PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROF. DECIDED TO INSERT SLGT
CHC POPS FOR THE OK PNHDL TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS PSBLTY REST OF TONIGHT.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...
DRYLINE HAS PUSHED INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES...WITH ONGOING CONVECTION QUICKLY MOVING EAST OF THE AMA
CWA. ALTHOUGH THE DRYLINE HAS STALLED WEST OF A GUYMON TO AMARILLO
LINE...HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE AN ABSENCE OF ANY NEW DEVELOPMENT
EAST OF THE DRYLINE. SO HAVE GONE AND REMOVED THE FAR WESTERN STACK
OF COUNTIES OUT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88. WILL LIKELY REMOVE
THE REMAINING COUNTIES OUT OF THE WATCH BEFORE IT EXPIRES AT
11 PM CDT.

CLK

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ANY
CONVECTION REMAINING WELL EAST OF THE TERMINALS. STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS 20-30 KTS SUSTAINED WILL VEER TO THE WEST THEN TO THE NORTHWEST
AS A PACIFIC FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. BREEZY SUSTAINED NORTHWEST
WINDS 15-25 KTS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 KTS BY 16Z WITH WINDS FURTHER DIMINISHING AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CLK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SEVERE WEATHER QUICK SUMMARY...
OVERALL ON TRACK WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR AN ISO TOR ACROSS
SE TX PANHANDLE.
TIMING: THROUGH 9PM
HAZARDS: HAIL UP TO BASEBALLS, DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH, AND CHANCE
FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO
AREA: EAST OF A SILVERTON TO SPEARMAN TO HOOKER LINE

SCATTERED CLOUDS HAVE HINDERED THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE DRYLINE
BUT SURFACE OBS SHOW WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS INDICATES THE DRYLINE IS
STARTING TO DEVELOP ROUGHLY FROM SILVERTON TO SPEARMAN TO HOOKER.
LAPS ANALYSIS EAST OF THIS LINE SHOWS DECENT CAPE VALUES (~1500+
J/KG) WHICH MATCHES UP NICELY WITH OUR 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING (LAUNCHED
PRIOR TO THE DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT). THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES
HAS A NICE FETCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HI-RES MODELS ARE HAVING
A HARD TIME CATCHING UP TOO. WITH THAT CONSIDERATION LCL HEIGHTS IN
THAT AREA ARE LOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE MODELS. THIS WILL BE AN
AREA TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS THE LOWER LCL HEIGHTS, AND THE INCREASED
VEERING DUE TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS IN THIS AREA COULD LEND
ITSELF TO INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

THE SECONDARY VORT MAX MOVING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BE OUR
UPPER LEVEL FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR INITIAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS BEFORE TRANSITIONING
INTO A CLUSTER/LINEAR STRUCTURE. THEY ALSO CONTINUE TO FOCUS THIS
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUT FAR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES.

SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO END BY 9 PM AS THE
VARIOUS FACTORS BECOME OUT OF PHASE.

LONG TERM...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL CENTER OVER THE WEEKEND AS
A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW APPROACHES THE AREA.

PRIOR TO THIS SYSTEM...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE
OF A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL LEAD TO COOLER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY FRIDAY WHILE A SURFACE
LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BACK
INTO THE 80S FRIDAY. EVEN WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW FURTHER DEEPENS AND LIFTS FURTHER NORTH. NWP MODELS
DEPICT THE DRYLINE MIXING INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES ONCE AGAIN ALTHOUGH THE ORIENTATION OF THIS LOW MAY
PREVENT THE DRYLINE TO MIX TOO FAR EAST. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES FOR NOW. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CAN
RESULT IN ANOTHER CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. A PACIFIC FRONT
WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER
BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PRESENT ACROSS THE
AREA.

THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA ALOFT. THUS WILL SEE COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.

CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. A DRYLINE
WILL CONTINUE TO MIX INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...LEAVING DRY AND
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RANGE AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT BEFORE INCREASING TO ABOVE 20 PERCENT
LATE THIS EVENING. MARGINAL ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE NEAR 15 PERCENT
WHILE NORTHERLY WINDS RANGE NEAR 10 TO 20 MPH. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 5 TO 15 PERCENT. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. OUTSIDE
OF A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE CHANCE
FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE SLIM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/02






000
FXUS64 KAMA 240326 AAD
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1026 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ENDING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF
FCST AREA AS OF 10 PM...AND HAVE ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO
EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 831 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...
TSTM ACTIVITY IS DONE FOR TONIGHT SO HAVE CANCELLED SVR TSTM WATCH 88
EARLY FOR ERN OK PNHDL AND ERN TX PNHDL. SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THRU THE REGION TONIGHT. MOST MODELS INCLUDING TTU WRF...NAM...GFS...
ECMWF...AND CMC BRING SOME LIGHT QPF IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO OK PNHDL LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND IN
ASSOCIATION WITH PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROF. DECIDED TO INSERT SLGT
CHC POPS FOR THE OK PNHDL TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS PSBLTY REST OF TONIGHT.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...
DRYLINE HAS PUSHED INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES...WITH ONGOING CONVECTION QUICKLY MOVING EAST OF THE AMA
CWA. ALTHOUGH THE DRYLINE HAS STALLED WEST OF A GUYMON TO AMARILLO
LINE...HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE AN ABSENCE OF ANY NEW DEVELOPMENT
EAST OF THE DRYLINE. SO HAVE GONE AND REMOVED THE FAR WESTERN STACK
OF COUNTIES OUT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88. WILL LIKELY REMOVE
THE REMAINING COUNTIES OUT OF THE WATCH BEFORE IT EXPIRES AT
11 PM CDT.

CLK

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ANY
CONVECTION REMAINING WELL EAST OF THE TERMINALS. STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS 20-30 KTS SUSTAINED WILL VEER TO THE WEST THEN TO THE NORTHWEST
AS A PACIFIC FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. BREEZY SUSTAINED NORTHWEST
WINDS 15-25 KTS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 KTS BY 16Z WITH WINDS FURTHER DIMINISHING AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CLK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SEVERE WEATHER QUICK SUMMARY...
OVERALL ON TRACK WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR AN ISO TOR ACROSS
SE TX PANHANDLE.
TIMING: THROUGH 9PM
HAZARDS: HAIL UP TO BASEBALLS, DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH, AND CHANCE
FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO
AREA: EAST OF A SILVERTON TO SPEARMAN TO HOOKER LINE

SCATTERED CLOUDS HAVE HINDERED THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE DRYLINE
BUT SURFACE OBS SHOW WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS INDICATES THE DRYLINE IS
STARTING TO DEVELOP ROUGHLY FROM SILVERTON TO SPEARMAN TO HOOKER.
LAPS ANALYSIS EAST OF THIS LINE SHOWS DECENT CAPE VALUES (~1500+
J/KG) WHICH MATCHES UP NICELY WITH OUR 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING (LAUNCHED
PRIOR TO THE DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT). THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES
HAS A NICE FETCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HI-RES MODELS ARE HAVING
A HARD TIME CATCHING UP TOO. WITH THAT CONSIDERATION LCL HEIGHTS IN
THAT AREA ARE LOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE MODELS. THIS WILL BE AN
AREA TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS THE LOWER LCL HEIGHTS, AND THE INCREASED
VEERING DUE TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS IN THIS AREA COULD LEND
ITSELF TO INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

THE SECONDARY VORT MAX MOVING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BE OUR
UPPER LEVEL FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR INITIAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS BEFORE TRANSITIONING
INTO A CLUSTER/LINEAR STRUCTURE. THEY ALSO CONTINUE TO FOCUS THIS
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUT FAR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES.

SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO END BY 9 PM AS THE
VARIOUS FACTORS BECOME OUT OF PHASE.

LONG TERM...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL CENTER OVER THE WEEKEND AS
A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW APPROACHES THE AREA.

PRIOR TO THIS SYSTEM...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE
OF A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL LEAD TO COOLER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY FRIDAY WHILE A SURFACE
LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BACK
INTO THE 80S FRIDAY. EVEN WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW FURTHER DEEPENS AND LIFTS FURTHER NORTH. NWP MODELS
DEPICT THE DRYLINE MIXING INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES ONCE AGAIN ALTHOUGH THE ORIENTATION OF THIS LOW MAY
PREVENT THE DRYLINE TO MIX TOO FAR EAST. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES FOR NOW. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CAN
RESULT IN ANOTHER CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. A PACIFIC FRONT
WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER
BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PRESENT ACROSS THE
AREA.

THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA ALOFT. THUS WILL SEE COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.

CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. A DRYLINE
WILL CONTINUE TO MIX INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...LEAVING DRY AND
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RANGE AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT BEFORE INCREASING TO ABOVE 20 PERCENT
LATE THIS EVENING. MARGINAL ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE NEAR 15 PERCENT
WHILE NORTHERLY WINDS RANGE NEAR 10 TO 20 MPH. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 5 TO 15 PERCENT. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. OUTSIDE
OF A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE CHANCE
FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE SLIM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 240326 AAD
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1026 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ENDING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF
FCST AREA AS OF 10 PM...AND HAVE ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO
EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 831 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...
TSTM ACTIVITY IS DONE FOR TONIGHT SO HAVE CANCELLED SVR TSTM WATCH 88
EARLY FOR ERN OK PNHDL AND ERN TX PNHDL. SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THRU THE REGION TONIGHT. MOST MODELS INCLUDING TTU WRF...NAM...GFS...
ECMWF...AND CMC BRING SOME LIGHT QPF IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO OK PNHDL LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND IN
ASSOCIATION WITH PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROF. DECIDED TO INSERT SLGT
CHC POPS FOR THE OK PNHDL TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS PSBLTY REST OF TONIGHT.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...
DRYLINE HAS PUSHED INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES...WITH ONGOING CONVECTION QUICKLY MOVING EAST OF THE AMA
CWA. ALTHOUGH THE DRYLINE HAS STALLED WEST OF A GUYMON TO AMARILLO
LINE...HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE AN ABSENCE OF ANY NEW DEVELOPMENT
EAST OF THE DRYLINE. SO HAVE GONE AND REMOVED THE FAR WESTERN STACK
OF COUNTIES OUT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88. WILL LIKELY REMOVE
THE REMAINING COUNTIES OUT OF THE WATCH BEFORE IT EXPIRES AT
11 PM CDT.

CLK

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ANY
CONVECTION REMAINING WELL EAST OF THE TERMINALS. STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS 20-30 KTS SUSTAINED WILL VEER TO THE WEST THEN TO THE NORTHWEST
AS A PACIFIC FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. BREEZY SUSTAINED NORTHWEST
WINDS 15-25 KTS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 KTS BY 16Z WITH WINDS FURTHER DIMINISHING AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CLK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SEVERE WEATHER QUICK SUMMARY...
OVERALL ON TRACK WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR AN ISO TOR ACROSS
SE TX PANHANDLE.
TIMING: THROUGH 9PM
HAZARDS: HAIL UP TO BASEBALLS, DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH, AND CHANCE
FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO
AREA: EAST OF A SILVERTON TO SPEARMAN TO HOOKER LINE

SCATTERED CLOUDS HAVE HINDERED THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE DRYLINE
BUT SURFACE OBS SHOW WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS INDICATES THE DRYLINE IS
STARTING TO DEVELOP ROUGHLY FROM SILVERTON TO SPEARMAN TO HOOKER.
LAPS ANALYSIS EAST OF THIS LINE SHOWS DECENT CAPE VALUES (~1500+
J/KG) WHICH MATCHES UP NICELY WITH OUR 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING (LAUNCHED
PRIOR TO THE DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT). THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES
HAS A NICE FETCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HI-RES MODELS ARE HAVING
A HARD TIME CATCHING UP TOO. WITH THAT CONSIDERATION LCL HEIGHTS IN
THAT AREA ARE LOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE MODELS. THIS WILL BE AN
AREA TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS THE LOWER LCL HEIGHTS, AND THE INCREASED
VEERING DUE TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS IN THIS AREA COULD LEND
ITSELF TO INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

THE SECONDARY VORT MAX MOVING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BE OUR
UPPER LEVEL FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR INITIAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS BEFORE TRANSITIONING
INTO A CLUSTER/LINEAR STRUCTURE. THEY ALSO CONTINUE TO FOCUS THIS
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUT FAR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES.

SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO END BY 9 PM AS THE
VARIOUS FACTORS BECOME OUT OF PHASE.

LONG TERM...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL CENTER OVER THE WEEKEND AS
A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW APPROACHES THE AREA.

PRIOR TO THIS SYSTEM...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE
OF A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL LEAD TO COOLER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY FRIDAY WHILE A SURFACE
LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BACK
INTO THE 80S FRIDAY. EVEN WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW FURTHER DEEPENS AND LIFTS FURTHER NORTH. NWP MODELS
DEPICT THE DRYLINE MIXING INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES ONCE AGAIN ALTHOUGH THE ORIENTATION OF THIS LOW MAY
PREVENT THE DRYLINE TO MIX TOO FAR EAST. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES FOR NOW. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CAN
RESULT IN ANOTHER CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. A PACIFIC FRONT
WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER
BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PRESENT ACROSS THE
AREA.

THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA ALOFT. THUS WILL SEE COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.

CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. A DRYLINE
WILL CONTINUE TO MIX INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...LEAVING DRY AND
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RANGE AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT BEFORE INCREASING TO ABOVE 20 PERCENT
LATE THIS EVENING. MARGINAL ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE NEAR 15 PERCENT
WHILE NORTHERLY WINDS RANGE NEAR 10 TO 20 MPH. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 5 TO 15 PERCENT. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. OUTSIDE
OF A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE CHANCE
FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE SLIM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KAMA 240131 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
831 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
TSTM ACTIVITY IS DONE FOR TONIGHT SO HAVE CANCELLED SVR TSTM WATCH 88
EARLY FOR ERN OK PNHDL AND ERN TX PNHDL. SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THRU THE REGION TONIGHT. MOST MODELS INCLUDING TTU WRF...NAM...GFS...
ECMWF...AND CMC BRING SOME LIGHT QPF IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO OK PNHDL LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND IN
ASSOCIATION WITH PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROF. DECIDED TO INSERT SLGT
CHC POPS FOR THE OK PNHDL TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS PSBLTY REST OF TONIGHT.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...
DRYLINE HAS PUSHED INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES...WITH ONGOING CONVECTION QUICKLY MOVING EAST OF THE AMA
CWA. ALTHOUGH THE DRYLINE HAS STALLED WEST OF A GUYMON TO AMARILLO
LINE...HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE AN ABSENCE OF ANY NEW DEVELOPMENT
EAST OF THE DRYLINE. SO HAVE GONE AND REMOVED THE FAR WESTERN STACK
OF COUNTIES OUT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88. WILL LIKELY REMOVE
THE REMAINING COUNTIES OUT OF THE WATCH BEFORE IT EXPIRES AT
11 PM CDT.

CLK

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ANY
CONVECTION REMAINING WELL EAST OF THE TERMINALS. STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS 20-30 KTS SUSTAINED WILL VEER TO THE WEST THEN TO THE NORTHWEST
AS A PACIFIC FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. BREEZY SUSTAINED NORTHWEST
WINDS 15-25 KTS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 KTS BY 16Z WITH WINDS FURTHER DIMINISHING AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CLK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SEVERE WEATHER QUICK SUMMARY...
OVERALL ON TRACK WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR AN ISO TOR ACROSS
SE TX PANHANDLE.
TIMING: THROUGH 9PM
HAZARDS: HAIL UP TO BASEBALLS, DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH, AND CHANCE
FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO
AREA: EAST OF A SILVERTON TO SPEARMAN TO HOOKER LINE

SCATTERED CLOUDS HAVE HINDERED THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE DRYLINE
BUT SURFACE OBS SHOW WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS INDICATES THE DRYLINE IS
STARTING TO DEVELOP ROUGHLY FROM SILVERTON TO SPEARMAN TO HOOKER.
LAPS ANALYSIS EAST OF THIS LINE SHOWS DECENT CAPE VALUES (~1500+
J/KG) WHICH MATCHES UP NICELY WITH OUR 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING (LAUNCHED
PRIOR TO THE DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT). THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES
HAS A NICE FETCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HI-RES MODELS ARE HAVING
A HARD TIME CATCHING UP TOO. WITH THAT CONSIDERATION LCL HEIGHTS IN
THAT AREA ARE LOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE MODELS. THIS WILL BE AN
AREA TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS THE LOWER LCL HEIGHTS, AND THE INCREASED
VEERING DUE TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS IN THIS AREA COULD LEND
ITSELF TO INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

THE SECONDARY VORT MAX MOVING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BE OUR
UPPER LEVEL FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR INITIAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS BEFORE TRANSITIONING
INTO A CLUSTER/LINEAR STRUCTURE. THEY ALSO CONTINUE TO FOCUS THIS
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUT FAR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES.

SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO END BY 9 PM AS THE
VARIOUS FACTORS BECOME OUT OF PHASE.

LONG TERM...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL CENTER OVER THE WEEKEND AS
A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW APPROACHES THE AREA.

PRIOR TO THIS SYSTEM...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE
OF A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL LEAD TO COOLER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY FRIDAY WHILE A SURFACE
LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BACK
INTO THE 80S FRIDAY. EVEN WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW FURTHER DEEPENS AND LIFTS FURTHER NORTH. NWP MODELS
DEPICT THE DRYLINE MIXING INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES ONCE AGAIN ALTHOUGH THE ORIENTATION OF THIS LOW MAY
PREVENT THE DRYLINE TO MIX TOO FAR EAST. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES FOR NOW. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CAN
RESULT IN ANOTHER CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. A PACIFIC FRONT
WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER
BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PRESENT ACROSS THE
AREA.

THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA ALOFT. THUS WILL SEE COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.

CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. A DRYLINE
WILL CONTINUE TO MIX INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...LEAVING DRY AND
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RANGE AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT BEFORE INCREASING TO ABOVE 20 PERCENT
LATE THIS EVENING. MARGINAL ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE NEAR 15 PERCENT
WHILE NORTHERLY WINDS RANGE NEAR 10 TO 20 MPH. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 5 TO 15 PERCENT. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. OUTSIDE
OF A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE CHANCE
FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE SLIM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 240131 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
831 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
TSTM ACTIVITY IS DONE FOR TONIGHT SO HAVE CANCELLED SVR TSTM WATCH 88
EARLY FOR ERN OK PNHDL AND ERN TX PNHDL. SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THRU THE REGION TONIGHT. MOST MODELS INCLUDING TTU WRF...NAM...GFS...
ECMWF...AND CMC BRING SOME LIGHT QPF IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO OK PNHDL LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND IN
ASSOCIATION WITH PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROF. DECIDED TO INSERT SLGT
CHC POPS FOR THE OK PNHDL TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS PSBLTY REST OF TONIGHT.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...
DRYLINE HAS PUSHED INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES...WITH ONGOING CONVECTION QUICKLY MOVING EAST OF THE AMA
CWA. ALTHOUGH THE DRYLINE HAS STALLED WEST OF A GUYMON TO AMARILLO
LINE...HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE AN ABSENCE OF ANY NEW DEVELOPMENT
EAST OF THE DRYLINE. SO HAVE GONE AND REMOVED THE FAR WESTERN STACK
OF COUNTIES OUT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88. WILL LIKELY REMOVE
THE REMAINING COUNTIES OUT OF THE WATCH BEFORE IT EXPIRES AT
11 PM CDT.

CLK

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ANY
CONVECTION REMAINING WELL EAST OF THE TERMINALS. STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS 20-30 KTS SUSTAINED WILL VEER TO THE WEST THEN TO THE NORTHWEST
AS A PACIFIC FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. BREEZY SUSTAINED NORTHWEST
WINDS 15-25 KTS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 KTS BY 16Z WITH WINDS FURTHER DIMINISHING AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CLK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SEVERE WEATHER QUICK SUMMARY...
OVERALL ON TRACK WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR AN ISO TOR ACROSS
SE TX PANHANDLE.
TIMING: THROUGH 9PM
HAZARDS: HAIL UP TO BASEBALLS, DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH, AND CHANCE
FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO
AREA: EAST OF A SILVERTON TO SPEARMAN TO HOOKER LINE

SCATTERED CLOUDS HAVE HINDERED THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE DRYLINE
BUT SURFACE OBS SHOW WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS INDICATES THE DRYLINE IS
STARTING TO DEVELOP ROUGHLY FROM SILVERTON TO SPEARMAN TO HOOKER.
LAPS ANALYSIS EAST OF THIS LINE SHOWS DECENT CAPE VALUES (~1500+
J/KG) WHICH MATCHES UP NICELY WITH OUR 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING (LAUNCHED
PRIOR TO THE DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT). THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES
HAS A NICE FETCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HI-RES MODELS ARE HAVING
A HARD TIME CATCHING UP TOO. WITH THAT CONSIDERATION LCL HEIGHTS IN
THAT AREA ARE LOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE MODELS. THIS WILL BE AN
AREA TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS THE LOWER LCL HEIGHTS, AND THE INCREASED
VEERING DUE TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS IN THIS AREA COULD LEND
ITSELF TO INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

THE SECONDARY VORT MAX MOVING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BE OUR
UPPER LEVEL FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR INITIAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS BEFORE TRANSITIONING
INTO A CLUSTER/LINEAR STRUCTURE. THEY ALSO CONTINUE TO FOCUS THIS
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUT FAR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES.

SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO END BY 9 PM AS THE
VARIOUS FACTORS BECOME OUT OF PHASE.

LONG TERM...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL CENTER OVER THE WEEKEND AS
A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW APPROACHES THE AREA.

PRIOR TO THIS SYSTEM...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE
OF A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL LEAD TO COOLER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY FRIDAY WHILE A SURFACE
LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BACK
INTO THE 80S FRIDAY. EVEN WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW FURTHER DEEPENS AND LIFTS FURTHER NORTH. NWP MODELS
DEPICT THE DRYLINE MIXING INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES ONCE AGAIN ALTHOUGH THE ORIENTATION OF THIS LOW MAY
PREVENT THE DRYLINE TO MIX TOO FAR EAST. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES FOR NOW. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CAN
RESULT IN ANOTHER CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. A PACIFIC FRONT
WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER
BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PRESENT ACROSS THE
AREA.

THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA ALOFT. THUS WILL SEE COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.

CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. A DRYLINE
WILL CONTINUE TO MIX INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...LEAVING DRY AND
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RANGE AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT BEFORE INCREASING TO ABOVE 20 PERCENT
LATE THIS EVENING. MARGINAL ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE NEAR 15 PERCENT
WHILE NORTHERLY WINDS RANGE NEAR 10 TO 20 MPH. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 5 TO 15 PERCENT. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. OUTSIDE
OF A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE CHANCE
FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE SLIM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 232344 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
644 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
DRYLINE HAS PUSHED INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES...WITH ONGOING CONVECTION QUICKLY MOVING EAST OF THE AMA
CWA. ALTHOUGH THE DRYLINE HAS STALLED WEST OF A GUYMON TO AMARILLO
LINE...HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE AN ABSENCE OF ANY NEW DEVELOPMENT
EAST OF THE DRYLINE. SO HAVE GONE AND REMOVED THE FAR WESTERN STACK
OF COUNTIES OUT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88. WILL LIKELY REMOVE
THE REMAINING COUNTIES OUT OF THE WATCH BEFORE IT EXPIRES AT
11 PM CDT.

CLK

&&

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ANY
CONVECTION REMAINING WELL EAST OF THE TERMINALS. STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS 20-30 KTS SUSTAINED WILL VEER TO THE WEST THEN TO THE NORTHWEST
AS A PACIFIC FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. BREEZY SUSTAINED NORTHWEST
WINDS 15-25 KTS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 KTS BY 16Z WITH WINDS FURTHER DIMINISHING AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SEVERE WEATHER QUICK SUMMARY...
OVERALL ON TRACK WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR AN ISO TOR ACROSS
SE TX PANHANDLE.
TIMING: THROUGH 9PM
HAZARDS: HAIL UP TO BASEBALLS, DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH, AND CHANCE
FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO
AREA: EAST OF A SILVERTON TO SPEARMAN TO HOOKER LINE

SCATTERED CLOUDS HAVE HINDERED THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE DRYLINE
BUT SURFACE OBS SHOW WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS INDICATES THE DRYLINE IS
STARTING TO DEVELOP ROUGHLY FROM SILVERTON TO SPEARMAN TO HOOKER.
LAPS ANALYSIS EAST OF THIS LINE SHOWS DECENT CAPE VALUES (~1500+
J/KG) WHICH MATCHES UP NICELY WITH OUR 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING (LAUNCHED
PRIOR TO THE DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT). THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES
HAS A NICE FETCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HI-RES MODELS ARE HAVING
A HARD TIME CATCHING UP TOO. WITH THAT CONSIDERATION LCL HEIGHTS IN
THAT AREA ARE LOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE MODELS. THIS WILL BE AN
AREA TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS THE LOWER LCL HEIGHTS, AND THE INCREASED
VEERING DUE TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS IN THIS AREA COULD LEND
ITSELF TO INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

THE SECONDARY VORT MAX MOVING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BE OUR
UPPER LEVEL FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR INITIAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS BEFORE TRANSITIONING
INTO A CLUSTER/LINEAR STRUCTURE. THEY ALSO CONTINUE TO FOCUS THIS
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUT FAR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES.

SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO END BY 9 PM AS THE
VARIOUS FACTORS BECOME OUT OF PHASE.

LONG TERM...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL CENTER OVER THE WEEKEND AS
A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW APPROACHES THE AREA.

PRIOR TO THIS SYSTEM...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE
OF A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL LEAD TO COOLER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY FRIDAY WHILE A SURFACE
LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BACK
INTO THE 80S FRIDAY. EVEN WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW FURTHER DEEPENS AND LIFTS FURTHER NORTH. NWP MODELS
DEPICT THE DRYLINE MIXING INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES ONCE AGAIN ALTHOUGH THE ORIENTATION OF THIS LOW MAY
PREVENT THE DRYLINE TO MIX TOO FAR EAST. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES FOR NOW. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CAN
RESULT IN ANOTHER CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. A PACIFIC FRONT
WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER
BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PRESENT ACROSS THE
AREA.

THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA ALOFT. THUS WILL SEE COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.

CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. A DRYLINE
WILL CONTINUE TO MIX INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...LEAVING DRY AND
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RANGE AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT BEFORE INCREASING TO ABOVE 20 PERCENT
LATE THIS EVENING. MARGINAL ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE NEAR 15 PERCENT
WHILE NORTHERLY WINDS RANGE NEAR 10 TO 20 MPH. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 5 TO 15 PERCENT. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. OUTSIDE
OF A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE CHANCE
FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE SLIM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KAMA 232344 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
644 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
DRYLINE HAS PUSHED INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES...WITH ONGOING CONVECTION QUICKLY MOVING EAST OF THE AMA
CWA. ALTHOUGH THE DRYLINE HAS STALLED WEST OF A GUYMON TO AMARILLO
LINE...HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE AN ABSENCE OF ANY NEW DEVELOPMENT
EAST OF THE DRYLINE. SO HAVE GONE AND REMOVED THE FAR WESTERN STACK
OF COUNTIES OUT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88. WILL LIKELY REMOVE
THE REMAINING COUNTIES OUT OF THE WATCH BEFORE IT EXPIRES AT
11 PM CDT.

CLK

&&

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ANY
CONVECTION REMAINING WELL EAST OF THE TERMINALS. STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS 20-30 KTS SUSTAINED WILL VEER TO THE WEST THEN TO THE NORTHWEST
AS A PACIFIC FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. BREEZY SUSTAINED NORTHWEST
WINDS 15-25 KTS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 KTS BY 16Z WITH WINDS FURTHER DIMINISHING AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SEVERE WEATHER QUICK SUMMARY...
OVERALL ON TRACK WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR AN ISO TOR ACROSS
SE TX PANHANDLE.
TIMING: THROUGH 9PM
HAZARDS: HAIL UP TO BASEBALLS, DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH, AND CHANCE
FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO
AREA: EAST OF A SILVERTON TO SPEARMAN TO HOOKER LINE

SCATTERED CLOUDS HAVE HINDERED THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE DRYLINE
BUT SURFACE OBS SHOW WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS INDICATES THE DRYLINE IS
STARTING TO DEVELOP ROUGHLY FROM SILVERTON TO SPEARMAN TO HOOKER.
LAPS ANALYSIS EAST OF THIS LINE SHOWS DECENT CAPE VALUES (~1500+
J/KG) WHICH MATCHES UP NICELY WITH OUR 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING (LAUNCHED
PRIOR TO THE DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT). THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES
HAS A NICE FETCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HI-RES MODELS ARE HAVING
A HARD TIME CATCHING UP TOO. WITH THAT CONSIDERATION LCL HEIGHTS IN
THAT AREA ARE LOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE MODELS. THIS WILL BE AN
AREA TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS THE LOWER LCL HEIGHTS, AND THE INCREASED
VEERING DUE TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS IN THIS AREA COULD LEND
ITSELF TO INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

THE SECONDARY VORT MAX MOVING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BE OUR
UPPER LEVEL FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR INITIAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS BEFORE TRANSITIONING
INTO A CLUSTER/LINEAR STRUCTURE. THEY ALSO CONTINUE TO FOCUS THIS
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUT FAR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES.

SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO END BY 9 PM AS THE
VARIOUS FACTORS BECOME OUT OF PHASE.

LONG TERM...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL CENTER OVER THE WEEKEND AS
A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW APPROACHES THE AREA.

PRIOR TO THIS SYSTEM...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE
OF A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL LEAD TO COOLER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY FRIDAY WHILE A SURFACE
LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BACK
INTO THE 80S FRIDAY. EVEN WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW FURTHER DEEPENS AND LIFTS FURTHER NORTH. NWP MODELS
DEPICT THE DRYLINE MIXING INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES ONCE AGAIN ALTHOUGH THE ORIENTATION OF THIS LOW MAY
PREVENT THE DRYLINE TO MIX TOO FAR EAST. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES FOR NOW. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CAN
RESULT IN ANOTHER CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. A PACIFIC FRONT
WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER
BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PRESENT ACROSS THE
AREA.

THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA ALOFT. THUS WILL SEE COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.

CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. A DRYLINE
WILL CONTINUE TO MIX INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...LEAVING DRY AND
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RANGE AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT BEFORE INCREASING TO ABOVE 20 PERCENT
LATE THIS EVENING. MARGINAL ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE NEAR 15 PERCENT
WHILE NORTHERLY WINDS RANGE NEAR 10 TO 20 MPH. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 5 TO 15 PERCENT. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. OUTSIDE
OF A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE CHANCE
FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE SLIM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 232038
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
338 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
SEVERE WEATHER QUICK SUMMARY...
OVERALL ON TRACK WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR AN ISO TOR ACROSS
SE TX PANHANDLE.
TIMING: THROUGH 9PM
HAZARDS: HAIL UP TO BASEBALLS, DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH, AND CHANCE
FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO
AREA: EAST OF A SILVERTON TO SPEARMAN TO HOOKER LINE

SCATTERED CLOUDS HAVE HINDERED THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE DRYLINE
BUT SURFACE OBS SHOW WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS INDICATES THE DRYLINE IS
STARTING TO DEVELOP ROUGHLY FROM SILVERTON TO SPEARMAN TO HOOKER.
LAPS ANALYSIS EAST OF THIS LINE SHOWS DECENT CAPE VALUES (~1500+
J/KG) WHICH MATCHES UP NICELY WITH OUR 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING (LAUNCHED
PRIOR TO THE DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT). THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES
HAS A NICE FETCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HI-RES MODELS ARE HAVING
A HARD TIME CATCHING UP TOO. WITH THAT CONSIDERATION LCL HEIGHTS IN
THAT AREA ARE LOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE MODELS. THIS WILL BE AN
AREA TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS THE LOWER LCL HEIGHTS, AND THE INCREASED
VEERING DUE TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS IN THIS AREA COULD LEND
ITSELF TO INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

THE SECONDARY VORT MAX MOVING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BE OUR
UPPER LEVEL FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR INITIAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS BEFORE TRANSITIONING
INTO A CLUSTER/LINEAR STRUCTURE. THEY ALSO CONTINUE TO FOCUS THIS
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUT FAR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES.

SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO END BY 9 PM AS THE
VARIOUS FACTORS BECOME OUT OF PHASE.

.LONG TERM...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL CENTER OVER THE WEEKEND AS
A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW APPROACHES THE AREA.

PRIOR TO THIS SYSTEM...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE
OF A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL LEAD TO COOLER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY FRIDAY WHILE A SURFACE
LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BACK
INTO THE 80S FRIDAY. EVEN WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW FURTHER DEEPENS AND LIFTS FURTHER NORTH. NWP MODELS
DEPICT THE DRYLINE MIXING INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES ONCE AGAIN ALTHOUGH THE ORIENTATION OF THIS LOW MAY
PREVENT THE DRYLINE TO MIX TOO FAR EAST. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES FOR NOW. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CAN
RESULT IN ANOTHER CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. A PACIFIC FRONT
WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER
BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PRESENT ACROSS THE
AREA.

THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA ALOFT. THUS WILL SEE COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.

CLK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. A DRYLINE
WILL CONTINUE TO MIX INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...LEAVING DRY AND
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RANGE AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT BEFORE INCREASING TO ABOVE 20 PERCENT
LATE THIS EVENING. MARGINAL ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE NEAR 15 PERCENT
WHILE NORTHERLY WINDS RANGE NEAR 10 TO 20 MPH. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 5 TO 15 PERCENT. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. OUTSIDE
OF A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE CHANCE
FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE SLIM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                45  71  45  85  52 /   5   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  47  74  44  87  57 /  30   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              42  72  40  85  47 /  10   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  49  76  51  88  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              45  75  47  88  51 /   5   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  45  72  47  85  51 /   5   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               52  75  47  85  58 /  20   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 41  74  37  87  44 /   5   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  45  75  42  86  51 /  20   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                45  71  45  85  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                50  74  44  82  61 /  30   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   48  74  47  83  59 /  10   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                53  76  48  83  60 /  30   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              56  77  49  84  59 /  30   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

14/05






000
FXUS64 KAMA 232038
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
338 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
SEVERE WEATHER QUICK SUMMARY...
OVERALL ON TRACK WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR AN ISO TOR ACROSS
SE TX PANHANDLE.
TIMING: THROUGH 9PM
HAZARDS: HAIL UP TO BASEBALLS, DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH, AND CHANCE
FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO
AREA: EAST OF A SILVERTON TO SPEARMAN TO HOOKER LINE

SCATTERED CLOUDS HAVE HINDERED THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE DRYLINE
BUT SURFACE OBS SHOW WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS INDICATES THE DRYLINE IS
STARTING TO DEVELOP ROUGHLY FROM SILVERTON TO SPEARMAN TO HOOKER.
LAPS ANALYSIS EAST OF THIS LINE SHOWS DECENT CAPE VALUES (~1500+
J/KG) WHICH MATCHES UP NICELY WITH OUR 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING (LAUNCHED
PRIOR TO THE DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT). THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES
HAS A NICE FETCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HI-RES MODELS ARE HAVING
A HARD TIME CATCHING UP TOO. WITH THAT CONSIDERATION LCL HEIGHTS IN
THAT AREA ARE LOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE MODELS. THIS WILL BE AN
AREA TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS THE LOWER LCL HEIGHTS, AND THE INCREASED
VEERING DUE TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS IN THIS AREA COULD LEND
ITSELF TO INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

THE SECONDARY VORT MAX MOVING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BE OUR
UPPER LEVEL FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR INITIAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS BEFORE TRANSITIONING
INTO A CLUSTER/LINEAR STRUCTURE. THEY ALSO CONTINUE TO FOCUS THIS
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUT FAR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES.

SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO END BY 9 PM AS THE
VARIOUS FACTORS BECOME OUT OF PHASE.

.LONG TERM...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL CENTER OVER THE WEEKEND AS
A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW APPROACHES THE AREA.

PRIOR TO THIS SYSTEM...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE
OF A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL LEAD TO COOLER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY FRIDAY WHILE A SURFACE
LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BACK
INTO THE 80S FRIDAY. EVEN WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW FURTHER DEEPENS AND LIFTS FURTHER NORTH. NWP MODELS
DEPICT THE DRYLINE MIXING INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES ONCE AGAIN ALTHOUGH THE ORIENTATION OF THIS LOW MAY
PREVENT THE DRYLINE TO MIX TOO FAR EAST. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES FOR NOW. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CAN
RESULT IN ANOTHER CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. A PACIFIC FRONT
WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER
BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PRESENT ACROSS THE
AREA.

THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA ALOFT. THUS WILL SEE COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.

CLK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. A DRYLINE
WILL CONTINUE TO MIX INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...LEAVING DRY AND
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RANGE AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT BEFORE INCREASING TO ABOVE 20 PERCENT
LATE THIS EVENING. MARGINAL ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE NEAR 15 PERCENT
WHILE NORTHERLY WINDS RANGE NEAR 10 TO 20 MPH. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 5 TO 15 PERCENT. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. OUTSIDE
OF A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE CHANCE
FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE SLIM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                45  71  45  85  52 /   5   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  47  74  44  87  57 /  30   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              42  72  40  85  47 /  10   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  49  76  51  88  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              45  75  47  88  51 /   5   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  45  72  47  85  51 /   5   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               52  75  47  85  58 /  20   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 41  74  37  87  44 /   5   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  45  75  42  86  51 /  20   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                45  71  45  85  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                50  74  44  82  61 /  30   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   48  74  47  83  59 /  10   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                53  76  48  83  60 /  30   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              56  77  49  84  59 /  30   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

14/05







000
FXUS64 KAMA 231657
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1157 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS TAF
ISSUANCE WITH SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO BLOWING DUST. KAMA
AND KDHT WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
DUE TO BLOWING DUST. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL HOVER RIGHT AROUND
AWW CRITERIA AT KAMA THROUGH 00Z BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.
CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN WELL
EAST OF THE TERMINALS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES
OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KTS.
THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF
ISSUANCE. MODELS DID HINT AT LOW CLOUDS AT THE TERMINALS TOMORROW
MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TO LOW TO INSERT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...
QUICK SUMMARY...
SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST ON TRACK.
TIMING: NOON-9PM
HAZARDS: HAIL UP TO BASEBALLS, DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH, AND LOW
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TORNADO
AREA: EAST OF A GUYMON TO AMARILLO LINE

INITIAL VORT MAX MOVING OUT OF NM/CO THIS MORNING HAS BROUGHT MORNING
CLOUDS AND HELPED TO SPARK ISOLATED VIRGA SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWS A STRONG LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WITH ROUGHLY 1200 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE AND A DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER. THIS LOW LEVEL DRYNESS HAS LED TO A FEW GUSTS UP TO
40 MPH. AS THE VORT MAX PASSES OVERHEAD IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME
THESE SHOWERS TO TAP INTO SOME OF THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO CAUSE
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER BUT THESE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF INACTIVITY DURING THE LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY WHILE UNDER THE EFFECT OF NEG VORT ADVECTION. THIS
WILL ALLOW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AND WE WILL WARM QUICKLY.
DURING THIS SAME TIME A DRYLINE WILL SLOWLY BE CONGEALING ACROSS OUR
WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES BEFORE MOVING EAST. BY NOON THE DRYLINE
SHOULD BE POSITIONED ROUGHLY FROM GUYMON TO AMARILLO.

A SECONDARY VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS THE UTAH/ARIZONA WILL BE OUR
UPPER LEVEL FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG
ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES WITH 30-40KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THIS
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
DRYLINE. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THESE SUPERCELLS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS, AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH. THE
LACK OF TURNING OF THE WINDS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS AND HIGH CLOUD
BASES (3500-6000FT) WILL LIMIT THE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING HOURS THE SEVERE THREAT WILL SHIFT
FURTHER EAST (MAINLY EXTREME EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES). DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE ON THE RISE (40-50KT 0-6KM) WHICH WILL LEAD TO DISCRETE
STORMS TRANSITIONING TO A CLUSTER/LINEAR STRUCTURE. MODELS DO HINT
AT A BULGE IN THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THIS TYPE OF FEATURE, SHOULD IT DEVELOP, COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
TURNING OF WINDS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND INCREASE
THE RISK OF A TORNADO. A POSSIBLE OFF-SETTING FACTOR IS THAT CLOUDS
BASES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY HIGH, BUT THIS CERTAINLY WON`T RULE OUT
THE POSSIBILITY OF ONE.

SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL END BY 9 PM AS THE VARIOUS FACTORS
BECOME OUT OF PHASE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

AVIATION...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THE STRONG WINDS MAY CAUSE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WHICH
MAY REDUCE THE VISIBILITY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INSERT INTO TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND VEER SOME
EARLY THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL TURN THE WINDS
AROUND TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE THEM AGAIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FIRE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE
PANHANDLES TODAY. ONE OF THE KEY COMPONENTS TO WHERE EACH TYPE OF
WEATHER WILL BE DEPENDS ON WHERE A WEAK DRYLINE SETS UP TODAY. WEST
OF THE DRYLINE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
PREVAIL, WHILE EAST OF IT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
MODELS DID NOT DO A GREAT JOB OF INITIALIZING THEIR DEW POINT VALUES
THIS MORNING AND SOME OF THEM WANT TO BRING IN 60F DEW POINTS INTO
THE EASTERN COUNTIES. BELIEVE THIS MIGHT BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC BASED
ON CURRENT DEW POINT VALUES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA, MORE
LIKELY HIGHEST DEW POINT VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
ANOTHER THING TO WATCH IS THE EROSION OF THE CAP TODAY, MOST MODELS
QUICKLY ERODE THE CAP BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z THUS ALLOWING STORMS TO
FIRE OFF, THIS MIGHT BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC AS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
HIGH/MID CLOUDS COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA AND SLOW THIS. BEST CHANCE
TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE FAR EASTERN COLUMN OF COUNTIES AND
DEFINITELY INTO THE MAIN BODY OF OKLAHOMA. QUESTION IS FOR OUR AREA
WILL ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER AT THE RIGHT TIME TO BRING
STORMS TO THE PANHANDLES.

IF/WHEN THESE STORMS FORM THEY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY HIGH BASED WITH LCL
VALUES AROUND 7,000 TO 9,000 FEET ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IN ADDITION
TO THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WILL MAKE TORNADO
FORMATION DIFFICULT IN THE PANHANDLES. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. CAPE VALUES IN THE -10C TO -30C
LEVELS IS VERY SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL. DCAPE VALUES OF OVER 1000
J/KG ALSO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS. FRONT SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST...
THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE REST OF
THE WORKWEEK SHOULD REMAIN QUIET AS THE AREA IS BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
FRIDAY, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK TO BE DRY AND WINDY FOR PARTS OF
THE PANHANDLES AS THE NEXT SYSTEMS MOVES IN. NEXT ROUND OF
INTERESTING WEATHER LOOKS TO SET UP AGAIN ON SATURDAY WHEN A DRYLINE
COULD SET UP IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY NOT IN GREAT
AGREEMENT ON LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A
VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY SLOTTED BY THIS
SYSTEM.

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES. A RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG WINDS
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM GUYMON TO AMARILLO.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

14/05







000
FXUS64 KAMA 231657
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1157 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS TAF
ISSUANCE WITH SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO BLOWING DUST. KAMA
AND KDHT WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
DUE TO BLOWING DUST. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL HOVER RIGHT AROUND
AWW CRITERIA AT KAMA THROUGH 00Z BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.
CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN WELL
EAST OF THE TERMINALS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES
OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KTS.
THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF
ISSUANCE. MODELS DID HINT AT LOW CLOUDS AT THE TERMINALS TOMORROW
MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TO LOW TO INSERT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...
QUICK SUMMARY...
SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST ON TRACK.
TIMING: NOON-9PM
HAZARDS: HAIL UP TO BASEBALLS, DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH, AND LOW
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TORNADO
AREA: EAST OF A GUYMON TO AMARILLO LINE

INITIAL VORT MAX MOVING OUT OF NM/CO THIS MORNING HAS BROUGHT MORNING
CLOUDS AND HELPED TO SPARK ISOLATED VIRGA SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWS A STRONG LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WITH ROUGHLY 1200 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE AND A DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER. THIS LOW LEVEL DRYNESS HAS LED TO A FEW GUSTS UP TO
40 MPH. AS THE VORT MAX PASSES OVERHEAD IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME
THESE SHOWERS TO TAP INTO SOME OF THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO CAUSE
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER BUT THESE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF INACTIVITY DURING THE LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY WHILE UNDER THE EFFECT OF NEG VORT ADVECTION. THIS
WILL ALLOW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AND WE WILL WARM QUICKLY.
DURING THIS SAME TIME A DRYLINE WILL SLOWLY BE CONGEALING ACROSS OUR
WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES BEFORE MOVING EAST. BY NOON THE DRYLINE
SHOULD BE POSITIONED ROUGHLY FROM GUYMON TO AMARILLO.

A SECONDARY VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS THE UTAH/ARIZONA WILL BE OUR
UPPER LEVEL FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG
ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES WITH 30-40KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THIS
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
DRYLINE. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THESE SUPERCELLS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS, AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH. THE
LACK OF TURNING OF THE WINDS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS AND HIGH CLOUD
BASES (3500-6000FT) WILL LIMIT THE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING HOURS THE SEVERE THREAT WILL SHIFT
FURTHER EAST (MAINLY EXTREME EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES). DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE ON THE RISE (40-50KT 0-6KM) WHICH WILL LEAD TO DISCRETE
STORMS TRANSITIONING TO A CLUSTER/LINEAR STRUCTURE. MODELS DO HINT
AT A BULGE IN THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THIS TYPE OF FEATURE, SHOULD IT DEVELOP, COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
TURNING OF WINDS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND INCREASE
THE RISK OF A TORNADO. A POSSIBLE OFF-SETTING FACTOR IS THAT CLOUDS
BASES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY HIGH, BUT THIS CERTAINLY WON`T RULE OUT
THE POSSIBILITY OF ONE.

SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL END BY 9 PM AS THE VARIOUS FACTORS
BECOME OUT OF PHASE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

AVIATION...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THE STRONG WINDS MAY CAUSE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WHICH
MAY REDUCE THE VISIBILITY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INSERT INTO TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND VEER SOME
EARLY THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL TURN THE WINDS
AROUND TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE THEM AGAIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FIRE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE
PANHANDLES TODAY. ONE OF THE KEY COMPONENTS TO WHERE EACH TYPE OF
WEATHER WILL BE DEPENDS ON WHERE A WEAK DRYLINE SETS UP TODAY. WEST
OF THE DRYLINE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
PREVAIL, WHILE EAST OF IT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
MODELS DID NOT DO A GREAT JOB OF INITIALIZING THEIR DEW POINT VALUES
THIS MORNING AND SOME OF THEM WANT TO BRING IN 60F DEW POINTS INTO
THE EASTERN COUNTIES. BELIEVE THIS MIGHT BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC BASED
ON CURRENT DEW POINT VALUES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA, MORE
LIKELY HIGHEST DEW POINT VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
ANOTHER THING TO WATCH IS THE EROSION OF THE CAP TODAY, MOST MODELS
QUICKLY ERODE THE CAP BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z THUS ALLOWING STORMS TO
FIRE OFF, THIS MIGHT BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC AS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
HIGH/MID CLOUDS COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA AND SLOW THIS. BEST CHANCE
TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE FAR EASTERN COLUMN OF COUNTIES AND
DEFINITELY INTO THE MAIN BODY OF OKLAHOMA. QUESTION IS FOR OUR AREA
WILL ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER AT THE RIGHT TIME TO BRING
STORMS TO THE PANHANDLES.

IF/WHEN THESE STORMS FORM THEY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY HIGH BASED WITH LCL
VALUES AROUND 7,000 TO 9,000 FEET ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IN ADDITION
TO THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WILL MAKE TORNADO
FORMATION DIFFICULT IN THE PANHANDLES. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. CAPE VALUES IN THE -10C TO -30C
LEVELS IS VERY SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL. DCAPE VALUES OF OVER 1000
J/KG ALSO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS. FRONT SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST...
THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE REST OF
THE WORKWEEK SHOULD REMAIN QUIET AS THE AREA IS BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
FRIDAY, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK TO BE DRY AND WINDY FOR PARTS OF
THE PANHANDLES AS THE NEXT SYSTEMS MOVES IN. NEXT ROUND OF
INTERESTING WEATHER LOOKS TO SET UP AGAIN ON SATURDAY WHEN A DRYLINE
COULD SET UP IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY NOT IN GREAT
AGREEMENT ON LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A
VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY SLOTTED BY THIS
SYSTEM.

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES. A RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG WINDS
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM GUYMON TO AMARILLO.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

14/05








000
FXUS64 KAMA 231458
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
958 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
QUICK SUMMARY...
SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST ON TRACK.
TIMING: NOON-9PM
HAZARDS: HAIL UP TO BASEBALLS, DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH, AND LOW
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TORNADO
AREA: EAST OF A GUYMON TO AMARILLO LINE

INITIAL VORT MAX MOVING OUT OF NM/CO THIS MORNING HAS BROUGHT MORNING
CLOUDS AND HELPED TO SPARK ISOLATED VIRGA SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWS A STRONG LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WITH ROUGHLY 1200 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE AND A DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER. THIS LOW LEVEL DRYNESS HAS LED TO A FEW GUSTS UP TO
40 MPH. AS THE VORT MAX PASSES OVERHEAD IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME
THESE SHOWERS TO TAP INTO SOME OF THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO CAUSE
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER BUT THESE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF INACTIVITY DURING THE LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY WHILE UNDER THE EFFECT OF NEG VORT ADVECTION. THIS
WILL ALLOW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AND WE WILL WARM QUICKLY.
DURING THIS SAME TIME A DRYLINE WILL SLOWLY BE CONGEALING ACROSS OUR
WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES BEFORE MOVING EAST. BY NOON THE DRYLINE
SHOULD BE POSITIONED ROUGHLY FROM GUYMON TO AMARILLO.

A SECONDARY VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS THE UTAH/ARIZONA WILL BE OUR
UPPER LEVEL FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG
ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES WITH 30-40KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THIS
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
DRYLINE. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THESE SUPERCELLS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS, AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH. THE
LACK OF TURNING OF THE WINDS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS AND HIGH CLOUD
BASES (3500-6000FT) WILL LIMIT THE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING HOURS THE SEVERE THREAT WILL SHIFT
FURTHER EAST (MAINLY EXTREME EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES). DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE ON THE RISE (40-50KT 0-6KM) WHICH WILL LEAD TO DISCRETE
STORMS TRANSITIONING TO A CLUSTER/LINEAR STRUCTURE. MODELS DO HINT
AT A BULGE IN THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THIS TYPE OF FEATURE, SHOULD IT DEVELOP, COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
TURNING OF WINDS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND INCREASE
THE RISK OF A TORNADO. A POSSIBLE OFF-SETTING FACTOR IS THAT CLOUDS
BASES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY HIGH, BUT THIS CERTAINLY WON`T RULE OUT
THE POSSIBILITY OF ONE.

SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL END BY 9 PM AS THE VARIOUS FACTORS
BECOME OUT OF PHASE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

AVIATION...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THE STRONG WINDS MAY CAUSE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WHICH
MAY REDUCE THE VISIBILITY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INSERT INTO TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND VEER SOME
EARLY THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL TURN THE WINDS
AROUND TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE THEM AGAIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FIRE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE
PANHANDLES TODAY. ONE OF THE KEY COMPONENTS TO WHERE EACH TYPE OF
WEATHER WILL BE DEPENDS ON WHERE A WEAK DRYLINE SETS UP TODAY. WEST
OF THE DRYLINE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
PREVAIL, WHILE EAST OF IT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
MODELS DID NOT DO A GREAT JOB OF INITIALIZING THEIR DEW POINT VALUES
THIS MORNING AND SOME OF THEM WANT TO BRING IN 60F DEW POINTS INTO
THE EASTERN COUNTIES. BELIEVE THIS MIGHT BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC BASED
ON CURRENT DEW POINT VALUES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA, MORE
LIKELY HIGHEST DEW POINT VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
ANOTHER THING TO WATCH IS THE EROSION OF THE CAP TODAY, MOST MODELS
QUICKLY ERODE THE CAP BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z THUS ALLOWING STORMS TO
FIRE OFF, THIS MIGHT BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC AS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
HIGH/MID CLOUDS COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA AND SLOW THIS. BEST CHANCE
TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE FAR EASTERN COLUMN OF COUNTIES AND
DEFINITELY INTO THE MAIN BODY OF OKLAHOMA. QUESTION IS FOR OUR AREA
WILL ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER AT THE RIGHT TIME TO BRING
STORMS TO THE PANHANDLES.

IF/WHEN THESE STORMS FORM THEY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY HIGH BASED WITH LCL
VALUES AROUND 7,000 TO 9,000 FEET ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IN ADDITION
TO THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WILL MAKE TORNADO
FORMATION DIFFICULT IN THE PANHANDLES. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. CAPE VALUES IN THE -10C TO -30C
LEVELS IS VERY SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL. DCAPE VALUES OF OVER 1000
J/KG ALSO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS. FRONT SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST...
THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE REST OF
THE WORKWEEK SHOULD REMAIN QUIET AS THE AREA IS BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
FRIDAY, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK TO BE DRY AND WINDY FOR PARTS OF
THE PANHANDLES AS THE NEXT SYSTEMS MOVES IN. NEXT ROUND OF
INTERESTING WEATHER LOOKS TO SET UP AGAIN ON SATURDAY WHEN A DRYLINE
COULD SET UP IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY NOT IN GREAT
AGREEMENT ON LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A
VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY SLOTTED BY THIS
SYSTEM.

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES. A RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG WINDS
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM GUYMON TO AMARILLO.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

14/05






000
FXUS64 KAMA 231458
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
958 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
QUICK SUMMARY...
SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST ON TRACK.
TIMING: NOON-9PM
HAZARDS: HAIL UP TO BASEBALLS, DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH, AND LOW
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TORNADO
AREA: EAST OF A GUYMON TO AMARILLO LINE

INITIAL VORT MAX MOVING OUT OF NM/CO THIS MORNING HAS BROUGHT MORNING
CLOUDS AND HELPED TO SPARK ISOLATED VIRGA SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWS A STRONG LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WITH ROUGHLY 1200 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE AND A DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER. THIS LOW LEVEL DRYNESS HAS LED TO A FEW GUSTS UP TO
40 MPH. AS THE VORT MAX PASSES OVERHEAD IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME
THESE SHOWERS TO TAP INTO SOME OF THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO CAUSE
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER BUT THESE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF INACTIVITY DURING THE LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY WHILE UNDER THE EFFECT OF NEG VORT ADVECTION. THIS
WILL ALLOW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AND WE WILL WARM QUICKLY.
DURING THIS SAME TIME A DRYLINE WILL SLOWLY BE CONGEALING ACROSS OUR
WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES BEFORE MOVING EAST. BY NOON THE DRYLINE
SHOULD BE POSITIONED ROUGHLY FROM GUYMON TO AMARILLO.

A SECONDARY VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS THE UTAH/ARIZONA WILL BE OUR
UPPER LEVEL FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG
ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES WITH 30-40KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THIS
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
DRYLINE. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THESE SUPERCELLS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS, AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH. THE
LACK OF TURNING OF THE WINDS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS AND HIGH CLOUD
BASES (3500-6000FT) WILL LIMIT THE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING HOURS THE SEVERE THREAT WILL SHIFT
FURTHER EAST (MAINLY EXTREME EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES). DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE ON THE RISE (40-50KT 0-6KM) WHICH WILL LEAD TO DISCRETE
STORMS TRANSITIONING TO A CLUSTER/LINEAR STRUCTURE. MODELS DO HINT
AT A BULGE IN THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THIS TYPE OF FEATURE, SHOULD IT DEVELOP, COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
TURNING OF WINDS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND INCREASE
THE RISK OF A TORNADO. A POSSIBLE OFF-SETTING FACTOR IS THAT CLOUDS
BASES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY HIGH, BUT THIS CERTAINLY WON`T RULE OUT
THE POSSIBILITY OF ONE.

SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL END BY 9 PM AS THE VARIOUS FACTORS
BECOME OUT OF PHASE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

AVIATION...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THE STRONG WINDS MAY CAUSE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WHICH
MAY REDUCE THE VISIBILITY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INSERT INTO TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND VEER SOME
EARLY THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL TURN THE WINDS
AROUND TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE THEM AGAIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FIRE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE
PANHANDLES TODAY. ONE OF THE KEY COMPONENTS TO WHERE EACH TYPE OF
WEATHER WILL BE DEPENDS ON WHERE A WEAK DRYLINE SETS UP TODAY. WEST
OF THE DRYLINE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
PREVAIL, WHILE EAST OF IT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
MODELS DID NOT DO A GREAT JOB OF INITIALIZING THEIR DEW POINT VALUES
THIS MORNING AND SOME OF THEM WANT TO BRING IN 60F DEW POINTS INTO
THE EASTERN COUNTIES. BELIEVE THIS MIGHT BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC BASED
ON CURRENT DEW POINT VALUES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA, MORE
LIKELY HIGHEST DEW POINT VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
ANOTHER THING TO WATCH IS THE EROSION OF THE CAP TODAY, MOST MODELS
QUICKLY ERODE THE CAP BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z THUS ALLOWING STORMS TO
FIRE OFF, THIS MIGHT BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC AS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
HIGH/MID CLOUDS COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA AND SLOW THIS. BEST CHANCE
TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE FAR EASTERN COLUMN OF COUNTIES AND
DEFINITELY INTO THE MAIN BODY OF OKLAHOMA. QUESTION IS FOR OUR AREA
WILL ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER AT THE RIGHT TIME TO BRING
STORMS TO THE PANHANDLES.

IF/WHEN THESE STORMS FORM THEY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY HIGH BASED WITH LCL
VALUES AROUND 7,000 TO 9,000 FEET ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IN ADDITION
TO THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WILL MAKE TORNADO
FORMATION DIFFICULT IN THE PANHANDLES. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. CAPE VALUES IN THE -10C TO -30C
LEVELS IS VERY SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL. DCAPE VALUES OF OVER 1000
J/KG ALSO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS. FRONT SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST...
THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE REST OF
THE WORKWEEK SHOULD REMAIN QUIET AS THE AREA IS BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
FRIDAY, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK TO BE DRY AND WINDY FOR PARTS OF
THE PANHANDLES AS THE NEXT SYSTEMS MOVES IN. NEXT ROUND OF
INTERESTING WEATHER LOOKS TO SET UP AGAIN ON SATURDAY WHEN A DRYLINE
COULD SET UP IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY NOT IN GREAT
AGREEMENT ON LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A
VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY SLOTTED BY THIS
SYSTEM.

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES. A RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG WINDS
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM GUYMON TO AMARILLO.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

14/05







000
FXUS64 KAMA 231104 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
604 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THE STRONG WINDS MAY CAUSE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WHICH
MAY REDUCE THE VISIBILITY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INSERT INTO TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND VEER SOME
EARLY THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL TURN THE WINDS
AROUND TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE THEM AGAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FIRE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE
PANHANDLES TODAY. ONE OF THE KEY COMPONENTS TO WHERE EACH TYPE OF
WEATHER WILL BE DEPENDS ON WHERE A WEAK DRYLINE SETS UP TODAY. WEST
OF THE DRYLINE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
PREVAIL, WHILE EAST OF IT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
MODELS DID NOT DO A GREAT JOB OF INITIALIZING THEIR DEW POINT VALUES
THIS MORNING AND SOME OF THEM WANT TO BRING IN 60F DEW POINTS INTO
THE EASTERN COUNTIES. BELIEVE THIS MIGHT BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC BASED
ON CURRENT DEW POINT VALUES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA, MORE
LIKELY HIGHEST DEW POINT VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
ANOTHER THING TO WATCH IS THE EROSION OF THE CAP TODAY, MOST MODELS
QUICKLY ERODE THE CAP BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z THUS ALLOWING STORMS TO
FIRE OFF, THIS MIGHT BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC AS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
HIGH/MID CLOUDS COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA AND SLOW THIS. BEST CHANCE
TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE FAR EASTERN COLUMN OF COUNTIES AND
DEFINITELY INTO THE MAIN BODY OF OKLAHOMA. QUESTION IS FOR OUR AREA
WILL ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER AT THE RIGHT TIME TO BRING
STORMS TO THE PANHANDLES.

IF/WHEN THESE STORMS FORM THEY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY HIGH BASED WITH LCL
VALUES AROUND 7,000 TO 9,000 FEET ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IN ADDITION
TO THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WILL MAKE TORNADO
FORMATION DIFFICULT IN THE PANHANDLES. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. CAPE VALUES IN THE -10C TO -30C
LEVELS IS VERY SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL. DCAPE VALUES OF OVER 1000
J/KG ALSO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS. FRONT SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST...
THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE REST OF
THE WORKWEEK SHOULD REMAIN QUIET AS THE AREA IS BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
FRIDAY, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK TO BE DRY AND WINDY FOR PARTS OF
THE PANHANDLES AS THE NEXT SYSTEMS MOVES IN. NEXT ROUND OF
INTERESTING WEATHER LOOKS TO SET UP AGAIN ON SATURDAY WHEN A DRYLINE
COULD SET UP IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY NOT IN GREAT
AGREEMENT ON LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A
VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY SLOTTED BY THIS
SYSTEM.

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES. A RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG WINDS
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM GUYMON TO AMARILLO.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...
     MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

15/19






000
FXUS64 KAMA 231104 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
604 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THE STRONG WINDS MAY CAUSE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WHICH
MAY REDUCE THE VISIBILITY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INSERT INTO TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND VEER SOME
EARLY THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL TURN THE WINDS
AROUND TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE THEM AGAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FIRE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE
PANHANDLES TODAY. ONE OF THE KEY COMPONENTS TO WHERE EACH TYPE OF
WEATHER WILL BE DEPENDS ON WHERE A WEAK DRYLINE SETS UP TODAY. WEST
OF THE DRYLINE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
PREVAIL, WHILE EAST OF IT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
MODELS DID NOT DO A GREAT JOB OF INITIALIZING THEIR DEW POINT VALUES
THIS MORNING AND SOME OF THEM WANT TO BRING IN 60F DEW POINTS INTO
THE EASTERN COUNTIES. BELIEVE THIS MIGHT BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC BASED
ON CURRENT DEW POINT VALUES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA, MORE
LIKELY HIGHEST DEW POINT VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
ANOTHER THING TO WATCH IS THE EROSION OF THE CAP TODAY, MOST MODELS
QUICKLY ERODE THE CAP BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z THUS ALLOWING STORMS TO
FIRE OFF, THIS MIGHT BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC AS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
HIGH/MID CLOUDS COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA AND SLOW THIS. BEST CHANCE
TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE FAR EASTERN COLUMN OF COUNTIES AND
DEFINITELY INTO THE MAIN BODY OF OKLAHOMA. QUESTION IS FOR OUR AREA
WILL ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER AT THE RIGHT TIME TO BRING
STORMS TO THE PANHANDLES.

IF/WHEN THESE STORMS FORM THEY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY HIGH BASED WITH LCL
VALUES AROUND 7,000 TO 9,000 FEET ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IN ADDITION
TO THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WILL MAKE TORNADO
FORMATION DIFFICULT IN THE PANHANDLES. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. CAPE VALUES IN THE -10C TO -30C
LEVELS IS VERY SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL. DCAPE VALUES OF OVER 1000
J/KG ALSO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS. FRONT SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST...
THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE REST OF
THE WORKWEEK SHOULD REMAIN QUIET AS THE AREA IS BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
FRIDAY, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK TO BE DRY AND WINDY FOR PARTS OF
THE PANHANDLES AS THE NEXT SYSTEMS MOVES IN. NEXT ROUND OF
INTERESTING WEATHER LOOKS TO SET UP AGAIN ON SATURDAY WHEN A DRYLINE
COULD SET UP IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY NOT IN GREAT
AGREEMENT ON LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A
VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY SLOTTED BY THIS
SYSTEM.

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES. A RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG WINDS
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM GUYMON TO AMARILLO.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...
     MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

15/19







000
FXUS64 KAMA 230849
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
349 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FIRE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE
PANHANDLES TODAY. ONE OF THE KEY COMPONENTS TO WHERE EACH TYPE OF
WEATHER WILL BE DEPENDS ON WHERE A WEAK DRYLINE SETS UP TODAY. WEST
OF THE DRYLINE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
PREVAIL, WHILE EAST OF IT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
MODELS DID NOT DO A GREAT JOB OF INITIALIZING THEIR DEW POINT VALUES
THIS MORNING AND SOME OF THEM WANT TO BRING IN 60F DEW POINTS INTO
THE EASTERN COUNTIES. BELIEVE THIS MIGHT BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC BASED
ON CURRENT DEW POINT VALUES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA, MORE
LIKELY HIGHEST DEW POINT VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
ANOTHER THING TO WATCH IS THE EROSION OF THE CAP TODAY, MOST MODELS
QUICKLY ERODE THE CAP BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z THUS ALLOWING STORMS TO
FIRE OFF, THIS MIGHT BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC AS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
HIGH/MID CLOUDS COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA AND SLOW THIS. BEST CHANCE
TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE FAR EASTERN COLUMN OF COUNTIES AND
DEFINITELY INTO THE MAIN BODY OF OKLAHOMA. QUESTION IS FOR OUR AREA
WILL ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER AT THE RIGHT TIME TO BRING
STORMS TO THE PANHANDLES.

IF/WHEN THESE STORMS FORM THEY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY HIGH BASED WITH LCL
VALUES AROUND 7,000 TO 9,000 FEET ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IN ADDITION
TO THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WILL MAKE TORNADO
FORMATION DIFFICULT IN THE PANHANDLES. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. CAPE VALUES IN THE -10C TO -30C
LEVELS IS VERY SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL. DCAPE VALUES OF OVER 1000
J/KG ALSO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS. FRONT SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST...
THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE REST OF
THE WORKWEEK SHOULD REMAIN QUIET AS THE AREA IS BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
FRIDAY, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK TO BE DRY AND WINDY FOR PARTS OF
THE PANHANDLES AS THE NEXT SYSTEMS MOVES IN. NEXT ROUND OF
INTERESTING WEATHER LOOKS TO SET UP AGAIN ON SATURDAY WHEN A DRYLINE
COULD SET UP IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY NOT IN GREAT
AGREEMENT ON LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A
VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY SLOTTED BY THIS
SYSTEM.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES. A RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG WINDS
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM GUYMON TO AMARILLO.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                88  45  75  48  87 /  30   5   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  84  47  77  47  85 /  50  30   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              84  42  74  40  83 /   5  10   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  87  49  78  52  88 /  30  10   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              89  45  78  49  88 /  10   5   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  89  45  76  50  87 /  20   5   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               86  52  78  51  88 /  40  20   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 86  41  75  41  85 /   5   5   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  89  45  77  43  86 /  30  20   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                88  45  75  47  87 /  10   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                83  50  76  48  84 /  50  30   0   0   5
PAMPA TX                   85  48  75  53  84 /  40  10   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                86  53  78  51  86 /  50  30   0   0   5
WELLINGTON TX              90  56  79  52  88 /  40  30   0   0   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...
     MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

15/19







000
FXUS64 KAMA 230849
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
349 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FIRE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE
PANHANDLES TODAY. ONE OF THE KEY COMPONENTS TO WHERE EACH TYPE OF
WEATHER WILL BE DEPENDS ON WHERE A WEAK DRYLINE SETS UP TODAY. WEST
OF THE DRYLINE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
PREVAIL, WHILE EAST OF IT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
MODELS DID NOT DO A GREAT JOB OF INITIALIZING THEIR DEW POINT VALUES
THIS MORNING AND SOME OF THEM WANT TO BRING IN 60F DEW POINTS INTO
THE EASTERN COUNTIES. BELIEVE THIS MIGHT BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC BASED
ON CURRENT DEW POINT VALUES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA, MORE
LIKELY HIGHEST DEW POINT VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
ANOTHER THING TO WATCH IS THE EROSION OF THE CAP TODAY, MOST MODELS
QUICKLY ERODE THE CAP BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z THUS ALLOWING STORMS TO
FIRE OFF, THIS MIGHT BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC AS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
HIGH/MID CLOUDS COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA AND SLOW THIS. BEST CHANCE
TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE FAR EASTERN COLUMN OF COUNTIES AND
DEFINITELY INTO THE MAIN BODY OF OKLAHOMA. QUESTION IS FOR OUR AREA
WILL ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER AT THE RIGHT TIME TO BRING
STORMS TO THE PANHANDLES.

IF/WHEN THESE STORMS FORM THEY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY HIGH BASED WITH LCL
VALUES AROUND 7,000 TO 9,000 FEET ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IN ADDITION
TO THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WILL MAKE TORNADO
FORMATION DIFFICULT IN THE PANHANDLES. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. CAPE VALUES IN THE -10C TO -30C
LEVELS IS VERY SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL. DCAPE VALUES OF OVER 1000
J/KG ALSO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS. FRONT SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST...
THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE REST OF
THE WORKWEEK SHOULD REMAIN QUIET AS THE AREA IS BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
FRIDAY, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK TO BE DRY AND WINDY FOR PARTS OF
THE PANHANDLES AS THE NEXT SYSTEMS MOVES IN. NEXT ROUND OF
INTERESTING WEATHER LOOKS TO SET UP AGAIN ON SATURDAY WHEN A DRYLINE
COULD SET UP IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY NOT IN GREAT
AGREEMENT ON LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A
VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY SLOTTED BY THIS
SYSTEM.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES. A RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG WINDS
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM GUYMON TO AMARILLO.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                88  45  75  48  87 /  30   5   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  84  47  77  47  85 /  50  30   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              84  42  74  40  83 /   5  10   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  87  49  78  52  88 /  30  10   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              89  45  78  49  88 /  10   5   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  89  45  76  50  87 /  20   5   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               86  52  78  51  88 /  40  20   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 86  41  75  41  85 /   5   5   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  89  45  77  43  86 /  30  20   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                88  45  75  47  87 /  10   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                83  50  76  48  84 /  50  30   0   0   5
PAMPA TX                   85  48  75  53  84 /  40  10   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                86  53  78  51  86 /  50  30   0   0   5
WELLINGTON TX              90  56  79  52  88 /  40  30   0   0   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...
     MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

15/19






000
FXUS64 KAMA 230423
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1123 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET WILL KEEP THE SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 25
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH 15Z WEDNESDAY...THEN WINDS INCREASING
TO AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER
14Z TO 16Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 00Z TO 02Z
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GUYMON AND DALHART TAF
SITES BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z THURSDAY SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE NORTH
AND INCREASING TO AROUND 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES MAY AFFECT MAINLY THE DALHART TAF SITE BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. ANY CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD
REMAIN EAST OF THE THREE TAF SITES...BUT WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED. ALSO...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET TONIGHT WILL KEEP THE WINDS
UP TONIGHT AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND THEN INCREASE
TO AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 14Z TO 15Z
WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLY NOT THINKING THAT AN AVIATION WEATHER WARNING
WILL BE NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY AS NOT EXPECTED WIND GUSTS TO REACH OR
EXCEED 40 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED IN CASE ONE IS NEEDED LATER.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  STILL EXPECTING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING IN
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PANHANDLES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH
EASTERN NEW MEXICO HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE TODAY AND FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS SHORTWAVE TROF ARRIVES FROM SOUTHWEST.

DRYLINE SETS UP ON WEDNESDAY.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET FOR EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  COLD FRONT
ARRIVES BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

SOME SIGNS THAT DRYLINE COULD SET UP AGAIN SATURDAY.  HAVE RETAINED
LOW POPS IN EASTERN HALF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  BIGGER STORY
MAY BE WINDS WEST OF DRYLINE.  DYNAMIC SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS WELL.

COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT LEADS TO COOLER CONDTIONS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
WESTERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES. A RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG WINDS
AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL BE IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF LINE FROM GUYMON TO AMARILLO. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...
     OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

11







000
FXUS64 KAMA 230423
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1123 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET WILL KEEP THE SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 25
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH 15Z WEDNESDAY...THEN WINDS INCREASING
TO AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER
14Z TO 16Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 00Z TO 02Z
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GUYMON AND DALHART TAF
SITES BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z THURSDAY SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE NORTH
AND INCREASING TO AROUND 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES MAY AFFECT MAINLY THE DALHART TAF SITE BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. ANY CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD
REMAIN EAST OF THE THREE TAF SITES...BUT WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED. ALSO...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET TONIGHT WILL KEEP THE WINDS
UP TONIGHT AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND THEN INCREASE
TO AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 14Z TO 15Z
WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLY NOT THINKING THAT AN AVIATION WEATHER WARNING
WILL BE NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY AS NOT EXPECTED WIND GUSTS TO REACH OR
EXCEED 40 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED IN CASE ONE IS NEEDED LATER.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  STILL EXPECTING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING IN
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PANHANDLES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH
EASTERN NEW MEXICO HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE TODAY AND FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS SHORTWAVE TROF ARRIVES FROM SOUTHWEST.

DRYLINE SETS UP ON WEDNESDAY.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET FOR EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  COLD FRONT
ARRIVES BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

SOME SIGNS THAT DRYLINE COULD SET UP AGAIN SATURDAY.  HAVE RETAINED
LOW POPS IN EASTERN HALF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  BIGGER STORY
MAY BE WINDS WEST OF DRYLINE.  DYNAMIC SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS WELL.

COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT LEADS TO COOLER CONDTIONS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
WESTERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES. A RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG WINDS
AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL BE IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF LINE FROM GUYMON TO AMARILLO. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...
     OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

11






000
FXUS64 KAMA 222335
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
635 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES MAY AFFECT MAINLY THE DALHART TAF SITE BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. ANY CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD
REMAIN EAST OF THE THREE TAF SITES...BUT WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED. ALSO...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET TONIGHT WILL KEEP THE WINDS
UP TONIGHT AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND THEN INCREASE
TO AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 14Z TO 15Z
WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLY NOT THINKING THAT AN AVIATION WEATHER WARNING
WILL BE NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY AS NOT EXPECTED WIND GUSTS TO REACH OR
EXCEED 40 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED IN CASE ONE IS NEEDED LATER.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  STILL EXPECTING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING IN
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PANHANDLES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH
EASTERN NEW MEXICO HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE TODAY AND FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS SHORTWAVE TROF ARRIVES FROM SOUTHWEST.

DRYLINE SETS UP ON WEDNESDAY.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET FOR EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  COLD FRONT
ARRIVES BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

SOME SIGNS THAT DRYLINE COULD SET UP AGAIN SATURDAY.  HAVE RETAINED
LOW POPS IN EASTERN HALF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  BIGGER STORY
MAY BE WINDS WEST OF DRYLINE.  DYNAMIC SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS WELL.

COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT LEADS TO COOLER CONDTIONS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
WESTERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES. A RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG WINDS
AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL BE IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF LINE FROM GUYMON TO AMARILLO. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...
     OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

11/99







000
FXUS64 KAMA 222335
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
635 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES MAY AFFECT MAINLY THE DALHART TAF SITE BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. ANY CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD
REMAIN EAST OF THE THREE TAF SITES...BUT WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED. ALSO...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET TONIGHT WILL KEEP THE WINDS
UP TONIGHT AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND THEN INCREASE
TO AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 14Z TO 15Z
WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLY NOT THINKING THAT AN AVIATION WEATHER WARNING
WILL BE NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY AS NOT EXPECTED WIND GUSTS TO REACH OR
EXCEED 40 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED IN CASE ONE IS NEEDED LATER.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  STILL EXPECTING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING IN
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PANHANDLES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH
EASTERN NEW MEXICO HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE TODAY AND FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS SHORTWAVE TROF ARRIVES FROM SOUTHWEST.

DRYLINE SETS UP ON WEDNESDAY.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET FOR EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  COLD FRONT
ARRIVES BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

SOME SIGNS THAT DRYLINE COULD SET UP AGAIN SATURDAY.  HAVE RETAINED
LOW POPS IN EASTERN HALF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  BIGGER STORY
MAY BE WINDS WEST OF DRYLINE.  DYNAMIC SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS WELL.

COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT LEADS TO COOLER CONDTIONS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
WESTERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES. A RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG WINDS
AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL BE IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF LINE FROM GUYMON TO AMARILLO. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...
     OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

11/99






000
FXUS64 KAMA 222046
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
330 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  STILL EXPECTING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING IN
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PANHANDLES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH
EASTERN NEW MEXICO HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE TODAY AND FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS SHORTWAVE TROF ARRIVES FROM SOUTHWEST.

DRYLINE SETS UP ON WEDNESDAY.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET FOR EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  COLD FRONT
ARRIVES BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

SOME SIGNS THAT DRYLINE COULD SET UP AGAIN SATURDAY.  HAVE RETAINED
LOW POPS IN EASTERN HALF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  BIGGER STORY
MAY BE WINDS WEST OF DRYLINE.  DYNAMIC SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS WELL.

COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT LEADS TO COOLER CONDTIONS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.  03

COCKRELL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
WESTERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES. A RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG WINDS
AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL BE IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF LINE FROM GUYMON TO AMARILLO. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                57  87  45  75  48 /   5  30   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  58  83  44  76  47 /   5  50  30   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              55  83  42  73  40 /  20   5  10   0   0
BORGER TX                  59  86  48  77  52 /   5  30  10   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              61  88  45  77  49 /  10  10   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  59  88  45  76  50 /   5  20   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               54  85  52  77  51 /   0  40  20   0   0
DALHART TX                 55  85  40  74  41 /  20   5   5   0   0
GUYMON OK                  58  88  45  78  43 /   5  30  20   0   0
HEREFORD TX                58  87  44  74  47 /  10  10   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                58  82  49  76  48 /   0  50  30   0   0
PAMPA TX                   58  84  47  74  53 /   0  40  10   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                56  85  53  76  51 /   0  50  30   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              55  89  56  77  52 /   0  40  30   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...
     OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

05/03





000
FXUS64 KAMA 222046
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
330 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  STILL EXPECTING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING IN
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PANHANDLES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH
EASTERN NEW MEXICO HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE TODAY AND FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS SHORTWAVE TROF ARRIVES FROM SOUTHWEST.

DRYLINE SETS UP ON WEDNESDAY.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET FOR EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  COLD FRONT
ARRIVES BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

SOME SIGNS THAT DRYLINE COULD SET UP AGAIN SATURDAY.  HAVE RETAINED
LOW POPS IN EASTERN HALF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  BIGGER STORY
MAY BE WINDS WEST OF DRYLINE.  DYNAMIC SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS WELL.

COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT LEADS TO COOLER CONDTIONS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.  03

COCKRELL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
WESTERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES. A RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG WINDS
AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL BE IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF LINE FROM GUYMON TO AMARILLO. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                57  87  45  75  48 /   5  30   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  58  83  44  76  47 /   5  50  30   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              55  83  42  73  40 /  20   5  10   0   0
BORGER TX                  59  86  48  77  52 /   5  30  10   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              61  88  45  77  49 /  10  10   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  59  88  45  76  50 /   5  20   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               54  85  52  77  51 /   0  40  20   0   0
DALHART TX                 55  85  40  74  41 /  20   5   5   0   0
GUYMON OK                  58  88  45  78  43 /   5  30  20   0   0
HEREFORD TX                58  87  44  74  47 /  10  10   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                58  82  49  76  48 /   0  50  30   0   0
PAMPA TX                   58  84  47  74  53 /   0  40  10   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                56  85  53  76  51 /   0  50  30   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              55  89  56  77  52 /   0  40  30   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...
     OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

05/03






000
FXUS64 KAMA 221725 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1225 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-20 KTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND INCREASE TO 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS BY 15Z WED. A DRYLINE
WILL MIX INTO THE EASTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES AFTER THE END OF THIS TAF
FORECAST PERIOD FOCUSING TSRA EAST OF ALL THREE TERMINALS.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND INCREASE TO
15 KT TO 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS
THE WESTERN PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON WITH KDHT HAVING THE
BEST...WHILE STILL LOW...CHANCES OF THE TERMINALS. HAVE KEPT MENTION
OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. THE GUSTY
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AROUND 20 KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY

THE FOCI OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT
WEATHER ON WED, THE WEEKEND SYSTEM, AND THE POSSIBLE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. FOR YOU AVID AFD FOLLOWERS, CONSISTENT
MODELS MEAN THERE`S NOT MUCH NEW TO TALK ABOUT FOR WED, BUT I`LL
TRY. FOR THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE YOU CAN SCRAP MY
ILL-CONCEIVED, WISHFUL IDEA THAT THE GFS WOULD ACTUALLY PAN OUT AND
BRING US RAIN AS THE GFS HAS NOW FALLEN IN LINE WITH ECMWF AND GEM.
THE GOOD NEWS FOR WE METEOROLOGISTS IS THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR
THE WEEKEND IS INCREASING, THE BAD NEWS FOR PANHANDLE RESIDENTS IS
THAT WE ARE BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT IN A DRY SLOT WIND BAG SOLUTION.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
CAN`T RULE OUT A COUPLE OF ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS OR STORMS
FALLING OF THE NM HIGH COUNTRY INTO THE WRN PANHANDLES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT, AND HAVE UTILIZED 10-20 POPS TO ACCOUNT.
OTHERWISE...A BREEZY AND WARM DAY IS ON TAP. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUE
NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE VERY WARM...MAYBE EVEN HOVERING AROUND 60 IN
SOME PLACES.

WEDNESDAY...
THOSE WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LEAD TO A WARM WEDNESDAY. BY EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON, A DRYLINE WILL BE COMING TOGETHER NICELY AND SET THE
STAGE FOR A CLASSIC 2-PRONGED SPRING DAY OF POTENTIAL SVR IN THE
EAST AND VERY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE WEST. GOING FORECAST
LOOKS GREAT AND DID NOT CHANGE POP/WX STRUCTURE, WITH 50 POPS IN THE
EAST AND 0 POPS IN THE WEST.

CHASER/WX NERD VERSION...
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN EXCELLENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT
THE ONLY DIFFERENCES INVOLVE TIMING/STRENGTH OF SPEED MAXES WHICH
WILL PLAY A PART IN THE EVOLUTION OF SVR WX. THE NAM STILL HAS THE
STRONGEST MID AND UPR FLOW...BUT THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ARE
GETTING SMALLER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE WEAK CAPPING AND
ALL SIGNS STILL POINT TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON JUST OFF THE CAPROCK...PROBABLY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF AN
AMARILLO TO GUYMON LINE. FAIRLY STRAIGHT AFTERNOON HODOGRAPHS WITH
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40KTS IN THE PRESENCE OF MODEST INSTABILITY
(1500-2000 J/KG) CONTINUE TO INDICATE SUPERCELL (SOME SPLITTING)
STORM MODE, AT LEAST INITIALLY. GIVEN WEAK CAPPING AND MODEST
FORCING...STORM COVERAGE MAY BE RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD...MEANING
STORM INTERACTIONS COULD RESULT IN RAPID UPSCALE GROWTH TO A BROKEN
LINE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...ESPECIALLY IN INITIAL ISOLATED CONVECTION.
ANY LINEAR ORGANIZATION WOULD ALSO POSE A WIND THREAT AS COLD POOL
GENERATION WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SUB CLOUD DRY LAYER. IN
ADDITION...0-1KM SHEAR VALUES OF 20-30KTS MAY FAVOR A WELL BALANCED,
LONG-LIVED GUST FRONT.

UNFORTUNATELY FOR CHASERS BUT FORTUNATELY FOR EVERYONE ELSE...THE
TORNADO THREAT LOOKS LOW FOR SEVERAL REASONS: 1) WEAK LOW LEVEL
TURNING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT, 2) HIGH LCLS ABOVE 2000M, AND 3)
POTENTIAL STORM INTERACTION RESULTING IN UPSCALE GROWTH OF STORMS
INTO CLUSTERS OR A LINE. AS FAR AS THE LCLS...EVEN THE MODEL WITH THE
MOISTEST LOW LVL SOLUTION, THE SREF, SHOWS ABOUT A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT LCLS STAY GREATER THAN 1500M EVERYWHERE THROUGH 03Z THU. ONE
COULD ARGUE THAT THERE IS A SMALL TORNADO WINDOW WITH ANY SUPERCELLS
THAT REMAIN INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS AS CLOUD BASES LOWER
AND INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING PROMOTES INCREASING 0-1 SRH
VALUES. HOWEVER, BY THAT POINT FCST SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE THE NEAR
SFC INVERSION STRENGTHENING TO A LEVEL THAT WILL QUICKLY PRECLUDE SFC
BASED CONVECTION. WE DO LIKE TO ALWAYS INCLUDE THE CAVEAT THAT ANY
LOCALIZED BAROCLINIC ZONES (IE BOUNDARIES) COULD AUGMENT THE LOW LVL
ENVIRONMENT SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW SUPERCELLS TO BECOME TORNADIC, AND
THOUGH UNLIKELY, WEAK TORNADOES ARE NOT UNHEARD OF WITH LCL HEIGHTS
ABOVE 2000M.

ALL SAID...HAIL IS THE GREATEST THREAT FOLLOWED BY WIND WITH THE
BEST SVR STORM WINDOW EAST OF AN AMARILLO TO GUYMON LINE FROM 2P-9P
WED.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
LOOK NICE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
WITH THE MODELS ALL NOW LATCHING ONTO THE NEGATIVE TILT UPR SYSTEM
JUST TO OUR NW ON SAT...VERY WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING
ALL THE MORE LIKELY. THE ECMWF HOLDS THE H5 SPEED MAX BACK UNTIL SAT
NIGHT WHILE THE GFS BRINGS IT THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. EITHER WAY...A
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE A GOOD BET ON SAT AND A HIGH WIND WARNING MAY
BE NEEDED IF THE H5/H7 SPEED MAX DOES COME IN DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...WHEN DEEP MIXING COULD GET US GUSTING TO 60 MPH. SAT NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WINDY AS WELL...AND WIND HEADLINES
COULD BE NEEDED ALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

NEXT WEEK...
A SERIES OF VERY STRONG LATE SEASON COLD FRONTS ARE LOOKING LIKELY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF CURRENT INDICATIONS HOLD...THE PANHANDLES WILL
BE LUCKY TO GET THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITHOUT A FROST OR FREEZE. AT THE
VERY LEAST, MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKELY.

SIMPSON

FIRE WEATHER...

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALL BUT CERTAIN ON WEDNESDAY
ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES IN VERY DRY AIR BEHIND A
DRYLINE...WHERE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THIS
WEEKEND, WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE ENTIRE PANHANDLES ON SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF
HERBACEOUS GREEN UP BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...SATURDAY WILL FEATURE
EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE
FUELS REMAIN DRY.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY BEFORE
MULTIPLE COLD FRONTS QUELL THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT NEXT WEEK.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MOORE...POTTER...RANDALL...
     SHERMAN.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...OLDHAM.

OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TEXAS.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 221725 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1225 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-20 KTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND INCREASE TO 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS BY 15Z WED. A DRYLINE
WILL MIX INTO THE EASTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES AFTER THE END OF THIS TAF
FORECAST PERIOD FOCUSING TSRA EAST OF ALL THREE TERMINALS.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND INCREASE TO
15 KT TO 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS
THE WESTERN PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON WITH KDHT HAVING THE
BEST...WHILE STILL LOW...CHANCES OF THE TERMINALS. HAVE KEPT MENTION
OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. THE GUSTY
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AROUND 20 KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY

THE FOCI OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT
WEATHER ON WED, THE WEEKEND SYSTEM, AND THE POSSIBLE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. FOR YOU AVID AFD FOLLOWERS, CONSISTENT
MODELS MEAN THERE`S NOT MUCH NEW TO TALK ABOUT FOR WED, BUT I`LL
TRY. FOR THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE YOU CAN SCRAP MY
ILL-CONCEIVED, WISHFUL IDEA THAT THE GFS WOULD ACTUALLY PAN OUT AND
BRING US RAIN AS THE GFS HAS NOW FALLEN IN LINE WITH ECMWF AND GEM.
THE GOOD NEWS FOR WE METEOROLOGISTS IS THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR
THE WEEKEND IS INCREASING, THE BAD NEWS FOR PANHANDLE RESIDENTS IS
THAT WE ARE BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT IN A DRY SLOT WIND BAG SOLUTION.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
CAN`T RULE OUT A COUPLE OF ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS OR STORMS
FALLING OF THE NM HIGH COUNTRY INTO THE WRN PANHANDLES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT, AND HAVE UTILIZED 10-20 POPS TO ACCOUNT.
OTHERWISE...A BREEZY AND WARM DAY IS ON TAP. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUE
NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE VERY WARM...MAYBE EVEN HOVERING AROUND 60 IN
SOME PLACES.

WEDNESDAY...
THOSE WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LEAD TO A WARM WEDNESDAY. BY EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON, A DRYLINE WILL BE COMING TOGETHER NICELY AND SET THE
STAGE FOR A CLASSIC 2-PRONGED SPRING DAY OF POTENTIAL SVR IN THE
EAST AND VERY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE WEST. GOING FORECAST
LOOKS GREAT AND DID NOT CHANGE POP/WX STRUCTURE, WITH 50 POPS IN THE
EAST AND 0 POPS IN THE WEST.

CHASER/WX NERD VERSION...
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN EXCELLENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT
THE ONLY DIFFERENCES INVOLVE TIMING/STRENGTH OF SPEED MAXES WHICH
WILL PLAY A PART IN THE EVOLUTION OF SVR WX. THE NAM STILL HAS THE
STRONGEST MID AND UPR FLOW...BUT THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ARE
GETTING SMALLER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE WEAK CAPPING AND
ALL SIGNS STILL POINT TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON JUST OFF THE CAPROCK...PROBABLY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF AN
AMARILLO TO GUYMON LINE. FAIRLY STRAIGHT AFTERNOON HODOGRAPHS WITH
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40KTS IN THE PRESENCE OF MODEST INSTABILITY
(1500-2000 J/KG) CONTINUE TO INDICATE SUPERCELL (SOME SPLITTING)
STORM MODE, AT LEAST INITIALLY. GIVEN WEAK CAPPING AND MODEST
FORCING...STORM COVERAGE MAY BE RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD...MEANING
STORM INTERACTIONS COULD RESULT IN RAPID UPSCALE GROWTH TO A BROKEN
LINE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...ESPECIALLY IN INITIAL ISOLATED CONVECTION.
ANY LINEAR ORGANIZATION WOULD ALSO POSE A WIND THREAT AS COLD POOL
GENERATION WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SUB CLOUD DRY LAYER. IN
ADDITION...0-1KM SHEAR VALUES OF 20-30KTS MAY FAVOR A WELL BALANCED,
LONG-LIVED GUST FRONT.

UNFORTUNATELY FOR CHASERS BUT FORTUNATELY FOR EVERYONE ELSE...THE
TORNADO THREAT LOOKS LOW FOR SEVERAL REASONS: 1) WEAK LOW LEVEL
TURNING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT, 2) HIGH LCLS ABOVE 2000M, AND 3)
POTENTIAL STORM INTERACTION RESULTING IN UPSCALE GROWTH OF STORMS
INTO CLUSTERS OR A LINE. AS FAR AS THE LCLS...EVEN THE MODEL WITH THE
MOISTEST LOW LVL SOLUTION, THE SREF, SHOWS ABOUT A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT LCLS STAY GREATER THAN 1500M EVERYWHERE THROUGH 03Z THU. ONE
COULD ARGUE THAT THERE IS A SMALL TORNADO WINDOW WITH ANY SUPERCELLS
THAT REMAIN INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS AS CLOUD BASES LOWER
AND INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING PROMOTES INCREASING 0-1 SRH
VALUES. HOWEVER, BY THAT POINT FCST SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE THE NEAR
SFC INVERSION STRENGTHENING TO A LEVEL THAT WILL QUICKLY PRECLUDE SFC
BASED CONVECTION. WE DO LIKE TO ALWAYS INCLUDE THE CAVEAT THAT ANY
LOCALIZED BAROCLINIC ZONES (IE BOUNDARIES) COULD AUGMENT THE LOW LVL
ENVIRONMENT SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW SUPERCELLS TO BECOME TORNADIC, AND
THOUGH UNLIKELY, WEAK TORNADOES ARE NOT UNHEARD OF WITH LCL HEIGHTS
ABOVE 2000M.

ALL SAID...HAIL IS THE GREATEST THREAT FOLLOWED BY WIND WITH THE
BEST SVR STORM WINDOW EAST OF AN AMARILLO TO GUYMON LINE FROM 2P-9P
WED.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
LOOK NICE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
WITH THE MODELS ALL NOW LATCHING ONTO THE NEGATIVE TILT UPR SYSTEM
JUST TO OUR NW ON SAT...VERY WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING
ALL THE MORE LIKELY. THE ECMWF HOLDS THE H5 SPEED MAX BACK UNTIL SAT
NIGHT WHILE THE GFS BRINGS IT THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. EITHER WAY...A
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE A GOOD BET ON SAT AND A HIGH WIND WARNING MAY
BE NEEDED IF THE H5/H7 SPEED MAX DOES COME IN DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...WHEN DEEP MIXING COULD GET US GUSTING TO 60 MPH. SAT NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WINDY AS WELL...AND WIND HEADLINES
COULD BE NEEDED ALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

NEXT WEEK...
A SERIES OF VERY STRONG LATE SEASON COLD FRONTS ARE LOOKING LIKELY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF CURRENT INDICATIONS HOLD...THE PANHANDLES WILL
BE LUCKY TO GET THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITHOUT A FROST OR FREEZE. AT THE
VERY LEAST, MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKELY.

SIMPSON

FIRE WEATHER...

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALL BUT CERTAIN ON WEDNESDAY
ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES IN VERY DRY AIR BEHIND A
DRYLINE...WHERE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THIS
WEEKEND, WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE ENTIRE PANHANDLES ON SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF
HERBACEOUS GREEN UP BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...SATURDAY WILL FEATURE
EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE
FUELS REMAIN DRY.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY BEFORE
MULTIPLE COLD FRONTS QUELL THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT NEXT WEEK.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MOORE...POTTER...RANDALL...
     SHERMAN.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...OLDHAM.

OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TEXAS.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 221113
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
613 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND INCREASE TO
15 KT TO 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS
THE WESTERN PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON WITH KDHT HAVING THE
BEST...WHILE STILL LOW...CHANCES OF THE TERMINALS. HAVE KEPT MENTION
OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. THE GUSTY
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AROUND 20 KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY

THE FOCI OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT
WEATHER ON WED, THE WEEKEND SYSTEM, AND THE POSSIBLE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. FOR YOU AVID AFD FOLLOWERS, CONSISTENT
MODELS MEAN THERE`S NOT MUCH NEW TO TALK ABOUT FOR WED, BUT I`LL
TRY. FOR THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE YOU CAN SCRAP MY
ILL-CONCEIVED, WISHFUL IDEA THAT THE GFS WOULD ACTUALLY PAN OUT AND
BRING US RAIN AS THE GFS HAS NOW FALLEN IN LINE WITH ECMWF AND GEM.
THE GOOD NEWS FOR WE METEOROLOGISTS IS THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR
THE WEEKEND IS INCREASING, THE BAD NEWS FOR PANHANDLE RESIDENTS IS
THAT WE ARE BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT IN A DRY SLOT WIND BAG SOLUTION.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
CAN`T RULE OUT A COUPLE OF ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS OR STORMS
FALLING OF THE NM HIGH COUNTRY INTO THE WRN PANHANDLES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT, AND HAVE UTILIZED 10-20 POPS TO ACCOUNT.
OTHERWISE...A BREEZY AND WARM DAY IS ON TAP. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUE
NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE VERY WARM...MAYBE EVEN HOVERING AROUND 60 IN
SOME PLACES.

WEDNESDAY...
THOSE WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LEAD TO A WARM WEDNESDAY. BY EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON, A DRYLINE WILL BE COMING TOGETHER NICELY AND SET THE
STAGE FOR A CLASSIC 2-PRONGED SPRING DAY OF POTENTIAL SVR IN THE
EAST AND VERY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE WEST. GOING FORECAST
LOOKS GREAT AND DID NOT CHANGE POP/WX STRUCTURE, WITH 50 POPS IN THE
EAST AND 0 POPS IN THE WEST.

CHASER/WX NERD VERSION...
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN EXCELLENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT
THE ONLY DIFFERENCES INVOLVE TIMING/STRENGTH OF SPEED MAXES WHICH
WILL PLAY A PART IN THE EVOLUTION OF SVR WX. THE NAM STILL HAS THE
STRONGEST MID AND UPR FLOW...BUT THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ARE
GETTING SMALLER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE WEAK CAPPING AND
ALL SIGNS STILL POINT TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON JUST OFF THE CAPROCK...PROBABLY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF AN
AMARILLO TO GUYMON LINE. FAIRLY STRAIGHT AFTERNOON HODOGRAPHS WITH
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40KTS IN THE PRESENCE OF MODEST INSTABILITY
(1500-2000 J/KG) CONTINUE TO INDICATE SUPERCELL (SOME SPLITTING)
STORM MODE, AT LEAST INITIALLY. GIVEN WEAK CAPPING AND MODEST
FORCING...STORM COVERAGE MAY BE RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD...MEANING
STORM INTERACTIONS COULD RESULT IN RAPID UPSCALE GROWTH TO A BROKEN
LINE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...ESPECIALLY IN INITIAL ISOLATED CONVECTION.
ANY LINEAR ORGANIZATION WOULD ALSO POSE A WIND THREAT AS COLD POOL
GENERATION WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SUB CLOUD DRY LAYER. IN
ADDITION...0-1KM SHEAR VALUES OF 20-30KTS MAY FAVOR A WELL BALANCED,
LONG-LIVED GUST FRONT.

UNFORTUNATELY FOR CHASERS BUT FORTUNATELY FOR EVERYONE ELSE...THE
TORNADO THREAT LOOKS LOW FOR SEVERAL REASONS: 1) WEAK LOW LEVEL
TURNING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT, 2) HIGH LCLS ABOVE 2000M, AND 3)
POTENTIAL STORM INTERACTION RESULTING IN UPSCALE GROWTH OF STORMS
INTO CLUSTERS OR A LINE. AS FAR AS THE LCLS...EVEN THE MODEL WITH THE
MOISTEST LOW LVL SOLUTION, THE SREF, SHOWS ABOUT A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT LCLS STAY GREATER THAN 1500M EVERYWHERE THROUGH 03Z THU. ONE
COULD ARGUE THAT THERE IS A SMALL TORNADO WINDOW WITH ANY SUPERCELLS
THAT REMAIN INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS AS CLOUD BASES LOWER
AND INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING PROMOTES INCREASING 0-1 SRH
VALUES. HOWEVER, BY THAT POINT FCST SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE THE NEAR
SFC INVERSION STRENGTHENING TO A LEVEL THAT WILL QUICKLY PRECLUDE SFC
BASED CONVECTION. WE DO LIKE TO ALWAYS INCLUDE THE CAVEAT THAT ANY
LOCALIZED BAROCLINIC ZONES (IE BOUNDARIES) COULD AUGMENT THE LOW LVL
ENVIRONMENT SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW SUPERCELLS TO BECOME TORNADIC, AND
THOUGH UNLIKELY, WEAK TORNADOES ARE NOT UNHEARD OF WITH LCL HEIGHTS
ABOVE 2000M.

ALL SAID...HAIL IS THE GREATEST THREAT FOLLOWED BY WIND WITH THE
BEST SVR STORM WINDOW EAST OF AN AMARILLO TO GUYMON LINE FROM 2P-9P
WED.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
LOOK NICE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
WITH THE MODELS ALL NOW LATCHING ONTO THE NEGATIVE TILT UPR SYSTEM
JUST TO OUR NW ON SAT...VERY WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING
ALL THE MORE LIKELY. THE ECMWF HOLDS THE H5 SPEED MAX BACK UNTIL SAT
NIGHT WHILE THE GFS BRINGS IT THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. EITHER WAY...A
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE A GOOD BET ON SAT AND A HIGH WIND WARNING MAY
BE NEEDED IF THE H5/H7 SPEED MAX DOES COME IN DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...WHEN DEEP MIXING COULD GET US GUSTING TO 60 MPH. SAT NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WINDY AS WELL...AND WIND HEADLINES
COULD BE NEEDED ALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

NEXT WEEK...
A SERIES OF VERY STRONG LATE SEASON COLD FRONTS ARE LOOKING LIKELY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF CURRENT INDICATIONS HOLD...THE PANHANDLES WILL
BE LUCKY TO GET THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITHOUT A FROST OR FREEZE. AT THE
VERY LEAST, MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKELY.

SIMPSON

FIRE WEATHER...

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALL BUT CERTAIN ON WEDNESDAY
ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES IN VERY DRY AIR BEHIND A
DRYLINE...WHERE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THIS
WEEKEND, WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE ENTIRE PANHANDLES ON SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF
HERBACEOUS GREEN UP BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...SATURDAY WILL FEATURE
EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE
FUELS REMAIN DRY.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY BEFORE
MULTIPLE COLD FRONTS QUELL THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT NEXT WEEK.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MOORE...POTTER...RANDALL...
     SHERMAN.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...OLDHAM.

OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TEXAS.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$

14/09







000
FXUS64 KAMA 221113
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
613 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND INCREASE TO
15 KT TO 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS
THE WESTERN PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON WITH KDHT HAVING THE
BEST...WHILE STILL LOW...CHANCES OF THE TERMINALS. HAVE KEPT MENTION
OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. THE GUSTY
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AROUND 20 KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY

THE FOCI OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT
WEATHER ON WED, THE WEEKEND SYSTEM, AND THE POSSIBLE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. FOR YOU AVID AFD FOLLOWERS, CONSISTENT
MODELS MEAN THERE`S NOT MUCH NEW TO TALK ABOUT FOR WED, BUT I`LL
TRY. FOR THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE YOU CAN SCRAP MY
ILL-CONCEIVED, WISHFUL IDEA THAT THE GFS WOULD ACTUALLY PAN OUT AND
BRING US RAIN AS THE GFS HAS NOW FALLEN IN LINE WITH ECMWF AND GEM.
THE GOOD NEWS FOR WE METEOROLOGISTS IS THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR
THE WEEKEND IS INCREASING, THE BAD NEWS FOR PANHANDLE RESIDENTS IS
THAT WE ARE BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT IN A DRY SLOT WIND BAG SOLUTION.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
CAN`T RULE OUT A COUPLE OF ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS OR STORMS
FALLING OF THE NM HIGH COUNTRY INTO THE WRN PANHANDLES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT, AND HAVE UTILIZED 10-20 POPS TO ACCOUNT.
OTHERWISE...A BREEZY AND WARM DAY IS ON TAP. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUE
NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE VERY WARM...MAYBE EVEN HOVERING AROUND 60 IN
SOME PLACES.

WEDNESDAY...
THOSE WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LEAD TO A WARM WEDNESDAY. BY EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON, A DRYLINE WILL BE COMING TOGETHER NICELY AND SET THE
STAGE FOR A CLASSIC 2-PRONGED SPRING DAY OF POTENTIAL SVR IN THE
EAST AND VERY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE WEST. GOING FORECAST
LOOKS GREAT AND DID NOT CHANGE POP/WX STRUCTURE, WITH 50 POPS IN THE
EAST AND 0 POPS IN THE WEST.

CHASER/WX NERD VERSION...
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN EXCELLENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT
THE ONLY DIFFERENCES INVOLVE TIMING/STRENGTH OF SPEED MAXES WHICH
WILL PLAY A PART IN THE EVOLUTION OF SVR WX. THE NAM STILL HAS THE
STRONGEST MID AND UPR FLOW...BUT THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ARE
GETTING SMALLER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE WEAK CAPPING AND
ALL SIGNS STILL POINT TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON JUST OFF THE CAPROCK...PROBABLY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF AN
AMARILLO TO GUYMON LINE. FAIRLY STRAIGHT AFTERNOON HODOGRAPHS WITH
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40KTS IN THE PRESENCE OF MODEST INSTABILITY
(1500-2000 J/KG) CONTINUE TO INDICATE SUPERCELL (SOME SPLITTING)
STORM MODE, AT LEAST INITIALLY. GIVEN WEAK CAPPING AND MODEST
FORCING...STORM COVERAGE MAY BE RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD...MEANING
STORM INTERACTIONS COULD RESULT IN RAPID UPSCALE GROWTH TO A BROKEN
LINE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...ESPECIALLY IN INITIAL ISOLATED CONVECTION.
ANY LINEAR ORGANIZATION WOULD ALSO POSE A WIND THREAT AS COLD POOL
GENERATION WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SUB CLOUD DRY LAYER. IN
ADDITION...0-1KM SHEAR VALUES OF 20-30KTS MAY FAVOR A WELL BALANCED,
LONG-LIVED GUST FRONT.

UNFORTUNATELY FOR CHASERS BUT FORTUNATELY FOR EVERYONE ELSE...THE
TORNADO THREAT LOOKS LOW FOR SEVERAL REASONS: 1) WEAK LOW LEVEL
TURNING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT, 2) HIGH LCLS ABOVE 2000M, AND 3)
POTENTIAL STORM INTERACTION RESULTING IN UPSCALE GROWTH OF STORMS
INTO CLUSTERS OR A LINE. AS FAR AS THE LCLS...EVEN THE MODEL WITH THE
MOISTEST LOW LVL SOLUTION, THE SREF, SHOWS ABOUT A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT LCLS STAY GREATER THAN 1500M EVERYWHERE THROUGH 03Z THU. ONE
COULD ARGUE THAT THERE IS A SMALL TORNADO WINDOW WITH ANY SUPERCELLS
THAT REMAIN INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS AS CLOUD BASES LOWER
AND INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING PROMOTES INCREASING 0-1 SRH
VALUES. HOWEVER, BY THAT POINT FCST SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE THE NEAR
SFC INVERSION STRENGTHENING TO A LEVEL THAT WILL QUICKLY PRECLUDE SFC
BASED CONVECTION. WE DO LIKE TO ALWAYS INCLUDE THE CAVEAT THAT ANY
LOCALIZED BAROCLINIC ZONES (IE BOUNDARIES) COULD AUGMENT THE LOW LVL
ENVIRONMENT SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW SUPERCELLS TO BECOME TORNADIC, AND
THOUGH UNLIKELY, WEAK TORNADOES ARE NOT UNHEARD OF WITH LCL HEIGHTS
ABOVE 2000M.

ALL SAID...HAIL IS THE GREATEST THREAT FOLLOWED BY WIND WITH THE
BEST SVR STORM WINDOW EAST OF AN AMARILLO TO GUYMON LINE FROM 2P-9P
WED.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
LOOK NICE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
WITH THE MODELS ALL NOW LATCHING ONTO THE NEGATIVE TILT UPR SYSTEM
JUST TO OUR NW ON SAT...VERY WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING
ALL THE MORE LIKELY. THE ECMWF HOLDS THE H5 SPEED MAX BACK UNTIL SAT
NIGHT WHILE THE GFS BRINGS IT THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. EITHER WAY...A
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE A GOOD BET ON SAT AND A HIGH WIND WARNING MAY
BE NEEDED IF THE H5/H7 SPEED MAX DOES COME IN DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...WHEN DEEP MIXING COULD GET US GUSTING TO 60 MPH. SAT NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WINDY AS WELL...AND WIND HEADLINES
COULD BE NEEDED ALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

NEXT WEEK...
A SERIES OF VERY STRONG LATE SEASON COLD FRONTS ARE LOOKING LIKELY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF CURRENT INDICATIONS HOLD...THE PANHANDLES WILL
BE LUCKY TO GET THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITHOUT A FROST OR FREEZE. AT THE
VERY LEAST, MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKELY.

SIMPSON

FIRE WEATHER...

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALL BUT CERTAIN ON WEDNESDAY
ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES IN VERY DRY AIR BEHIND A
DRYLINE...WHERE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THIS
WEEKEND, WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE ENTIRE PANHANDLES ON SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF
HERBACEOUS GREEN UP BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...SATURDAY WILL FEATURE
EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE
FUELS REMAIN DRY.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY BEFORE
MULTIPLE COLD FRONTS QUELL THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT NEXT WEEK.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MOORE...POTTER...RANDALL...
     SHERMAN.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...OLDHAM.

OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TEXAS.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$

14/09








000
FXUS64 KAMA 220940
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
440 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY

THE FOCI OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT
WEATHER ON WED, THE WEEKEND SYSTEM, AND THE POSSIBLE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. FOR YOU AVID AFD FOLLOWERS, CONSISTENT
MODELS MEAN THERE`S NOT MUCH NEW TO TALK ABOUT FOR WED, BUT I`LL
TRY. FOR THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE YOU CAN SCRAP MY
ILL-CONCEIVED, WISHFUL IDEA THAT THE GFS WOULD ACTUALLY PAN OUT AND
BRING US RAIN AS THE GFS HAS NOW FALLEN IN LINE WITH ECMWF AND GEM.
THE GOOD NEWS FOR WE METEOROLOGISTS IS THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR
THE WEEKEND IS INCREASING, THE BAD NEWS FOR PANHANDLE RESIDENTS IS
THAT WE ARE BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT IN A DRY SLOT WIND BAG SOLUTION.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
CAN`T RULE OUT A COUPLE OF ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS OR STORMS
FALLING OF THE NM HIGH COUNTRY INTO THE WRN PANHANDLES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT, AND HAVE UTILIZED 10-20 POPS TO ACCOUNT.
OTHERWISE...A BREEZY AND WARM DAY IS ON TAP. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUE
NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE VERY WARM...MAYBE EVEN HOVERING AROUND 60 IN
SOME PLACES.

WEDNESDAY...
THOSE WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LEAD TO A WARM WEDNESDAY. BY EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON, A DRYLINE WILL BE COMING TOGETHER NICELY AND SET THE
STAGE FOR A CLASSIC 2-PRONGED SPRING DAY OF POTENTIAL SVR IN THE
EAST AND VERY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE WEST. GOING FORECAST
LOOKS GREAT AND DID NOT CHANGE POP/WX STRUCTURE, WITH 50 POPS IN THE
EAST AND 0 POPS IN THE WEST.

CHASER/WX NERD VERSION...
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN EXCELLENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT
THE ONLY DIFFERENCES INVOLVE TIMING/STRENGTH OF SPEED MAXES WHICH
WILL PLAY A PART IN THE EVOLUTION OF SVR WX. THE NAM STILL HAS THE
STRONGEST MID AND UPR FLOW...BUT THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ARE
GETTING SMALLER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE WEAK CAPPING AND
ALL SIGNS STILL POINT TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON JUST OFF THE CAPROCK...PROBABLY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF AN
AMARILLO TO GUYMON LINE. FAIRLY STRAIGHT AFTERNOON HODOGRAPHS WITH
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40KTS IN THE PRESENCE OF MODEST INSTABILITY
(1500-2000 J/KG) CONTINUE TO INDICATE SUPERCELL (SOME SPLITTING)
STORM MODE, AT LEAST INITIALLY. GIVEN WEAK CAPPING AND MODEST
FORCING...STORM COVERAGE MAY BE RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD...MEANING
STORM INTERACTIONS COULD RESULT IN RAPID UPSCALE GROWTH TO A BROKEN
LINE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...ESPECIALLY IN INITIAL ISOLATED CONVECTION.
ANY LINEAR ORGANIZATION WOULD ALSO POSE A WIND THREAT AS COLD POOL
GENERATION WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SUB CLOUD DRY LAYER. IN
ADDITION...0-1KM SHEAR VALUES OF 20-30KTS MAY FAVOR A WELL BALANCED,
LONG-LIVED GUST FRONT.

UNFORTUNATELY FOR CHASERS BUT FORTUNATELY FOR EVERYONE ELSE...THE
TORNADO THREAT LOOKS LOW FOR SEVERAL REASONS: 1) WEAK LOW LEVEL
TURNING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT, 2) HIGH LCLS ABOVE 2000M, AND 3)
POTENTIAL STORM INTERACTION RESULTING IN UPSCALE GROWTH OF STORMS
INTO CLUSTERS OR A LINE. AS FAR AS THE LCLS...EVEN THE MODEL WITH THE
MOISTEST LOW LVL SOLUTION, THE SREF, SHOWS ABOUT A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT LCLS STAY GREATER THAN 1500M EVERYWHERE THROUGH 03Z THU. ONE
COULD ARGUE THAT THERE IS A SMALL TORNADO WINDOW WITH ANY SUPERCELLS
THAT REMAIN INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS AS CLOUD BASES LOWER
AND INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING PROMOTES INCREASING 0-1 SRH
VALUES. HOWEVER, BY THAT POINT FCST SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE THE NEAR
SFC INVERSION STRENGTHENING TO A LEVEL THAT WILL QUICKLY PRECLUDE SFC
BASED CONVECTION. WE DO LIKE TO ALWAYS INCLUDE THE CAVEAT THAT ANY
LOCALIZED BAROCLINIC ZONES (IE BOUNDARIES) COULD AUGMENT THE LOW LVL
ENVIRONMENT SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW SUPERCELLS TO BECOME TORNADIC, AND
THOUGH UNLIKELY, WEAK TORNADOES ARE NOT UNHEARD OF WITH LCL HEIGHTS
ABOVE 2000M.

ALL SAID...HAIL IS THE GREATEST THREAT FOLLOWED BY WIND WITH THE
BEST SVR STORM WINDOW EAST OF AN AMARILLO TO GUYMON LINE FROM 2P-9P
WED.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
LOOK NICE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
WITH THE MODELS ALL NOW LATCHING ONTO THE NEGATIVE TILT UPR SYSTEM
JUST TO OUR NW ON SAT...VERY WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING
ALL THE MORE LIKELY. THE ECMWF HOLDS THE H5 SPEED MAX BACK UNTIL SAT
NIGHT WHILE THE GFS BRINGS IT THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. EITHER WAY...A
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE A GOOD BET ON SAT AND A HIGH WIND WARNING MAY
BE NEEDED IF THE H5/H7 SPEED MAX DOES COME IN DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...WHEN DEEP MIXING COULD GET US GUSTING TO 60 MPH. SAT NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WINDY AS WELL...AND WIND HEADLINES
COULD BE NEEDED ALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

NEXT WEEK...
A SERIES OF VERY STRONG LATE SEASON COLD FRONTS ARE LOOKING LIKELY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF CURRENT INDICATIONS HOLD...THE PANHANDLES WILL
BE LUCKY TO GET THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITHOUT A FROST OR FREEZE. AT THE
VERY LEAST, MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKELY.

SIMPSON
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALL BUT CERTAIN ON WEDNESDAY
ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES IN VERY DRY AIR BEHIND A
DRYLINE...WHERE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THIS
WEEKEND, WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE ENTIRE PANHANDLES ON SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF
HERBACEOUS GREEN UP BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...SATURDAY WILL FEATURE
EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE
FUELS REMAIN DRY.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY BEFORE
MULTIPLE COLD FRONTS QUELL THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT NEXT WEEK.

SIMPSON
&&


.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MOORE...POTTER...RANDALL...
     SHERMAN.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...OLDHAM.

OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TEXAS.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$

14/09









000
FXUS64 KAMA 220940
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
440 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY

THE FOCI OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT
WEATHER ON WED, THE WEEKEND SYSTEM, AND THE POSSIBLE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. FOR YOU AVID AFD FOLLOWERS, CONSISTENT
MODELS MEAN THERE`S NOT MUCH NEW TO TALK ABOUT FOR WED, BUT I`LL
TRY. FOR THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE YOU CAN SCRAP MY
ILL-CONCEIVED, WISHFUL IDEA THAT THE GFS WOULD ACTUALLY PAN OUT AND
BRING US RAIN AS THE GFS HAS NOW FALLEN IN LINE WITH ECMWF AND GEM.
THE GOOD NEWS FOR WE METEOROLOGISTS IS THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR
THE WEEKEND IS INCREASING, THE BAD NEWS FOR PANHANDLE RESIDENTS IS
THAT WE ARE BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT IN A DRY SLOT WIND BAG SOLUTION.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
CAN`T RULE OUT A COUPLE OF ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS OR STORMS
FALLING OF THE NM HIGH COUNTRY INTO THE WRN PANHANDLES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT, AND HAVE UTILIZED 10-20 POPS TO ACCOUNT.
OTHERWISE...A BREEZY AND WARM DAY IS ON TAP. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUE
NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE VERY WARM...MAYBE EVEN HOVERING AROUND 60 IN
SOME PLACES.

WEDNESDAY...
THOSE WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LEAD TO A WARM WEDNESDAY. BY EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON, A DRYLINE WILL BE COMING TOGETHER NICELY AND SET THE
STAGE FOR A CLASSIC 2-PRONGED SPRING DAY OF POTENTIAL SVR IN THE
EAST AND VERY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE WEST. GOING FORECAST
LOOKS GREAT AND DID NOT CHANGE POP/WX STRUCTURE, WITH 50 POPS IN THE
EAST AND 0 POPS IN THE WEST.

CHASER/WX NERD VERSION...
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN EXCELLENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT
THE ONLY DIFFERENCES INVOLVE TIMING/STRENGTH OF SPEED MAXES WHICH
WILL PLAY A PART IN THE EVOLUTION OF SVR WX. THE NAM STILL HAS THE
STRONGEST MID AND UPR FLOW...BUT THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ARE
GETTING SMALLER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE WEAK CAPPING AND
ALL SIGNS STILL POINT TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON JUST OFF THE CAPROCK...PROBABLY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF AN
AMARILLO TO GUYMON LINE. FAIRLY STRAIGHT AFTERNOON HODOGRAPHS WITH
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40KTS IN THE PRESENCE OF MODEST INSTABILITY
(1500-2000 J/KG) CONTINUE TO INDICATE SUPERCELL (SOME SPLITTING)
STORM MODE, AT LEAST INITIALLY. GIVEN WEAK CAPPING AND MODEST
FORCING...STORM COVERAGE MAY BE RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD...MEANING
STORM INTERACTIONS COULD RESULT IN RAPID UPSCALE GROWTH TO A BROKEN
LINE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...ESPECIALLY IN INITIAL ISOLATED CONVECTION.
ANY LINEAR ORGANIZATION WOULD ALSO POSE A WIND THREAT AS COLD POOL
GENERATION WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SUB CLOUD DRY LAYER. IN
ADDITION...0-1KM SHEAR VALUES OF 20-30KTS MAY FAVOR A WELL BALANCED,
LONG-LIVED GUST FRONT.

UNFORTUNATELY FOR CHASERS BUT FORTUNATELY FOR EVERYONE ELSE...THE
TORNADO THREAT LOOKS LOW FOR SEVERAL REASONS: 1) WEAK LOW LEVEL
TURNING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT, 2) HIGH LCLS ABOVE 2000M, AND 3)
POTENTIAL STORM INTERACTION RESULTING IN UPSCALE GROWTH OF STORMS
INTO CLUSTERS OR A LINE. AS FAR AS THE LCLS...EVEN THE MODEL WITH THE
MOISTEST LOW LVL SOLUTION, THE SREF, SHOWS ABOUT A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT LCLS STAY GREATER THAN 1500M EVERYWHERE THROUGH 03Z THU. ONE
COULD ARGUE THAT THERE IS A SMALL TORNADO WINDOW WITH ANY SUPERCELLS
THAT REMAIN INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS AS CLOUD BASES LOWER
AND INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING PROMOTES INCREASING 0-1 SRH
VALUES. HOWEVER, BY THAT POINT FCST SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE THE NEAR
SFC INVERSION STRENGTHENING TO A LEVEL THAT WILL QUICKLY PRECLUDE SFC
BASED CONVECTION. WE DO LIKE TO ALWAYS INCLUDE THE CAVEAT THAT ANY
LOCALIZED BAROCLINIC ZONES (IE BOUNDARIES) COULD AUGMENT THE LOW LVL
ENVIRONMENT SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW SUPERCELLS TO BECOME TORNADIC, AND
THOUGH UNLIKELY, WEAK TORNADOES ARE NOT UNHEARD OF WITH LCL HEIGHTS
ABOVE 2000M.

ALL SAID...HAIL IS THE GREATEST THREAT FOLLOWED BY WIND WITH THE
BEST SVR STORM WINDOW EAST OF AN AMARILLO TO GUYMON LINE FROM 2P-9P
WED.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
LOOK NICE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
WITH THE MODELS ALL NOW LATCHING ONTO THE NEGATIVE TILT UPR SYSTEM
JUST TO OUR NW ON SAT...VERY WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING
ALL THE MORE LIKELY. THE ECMWF HOLDS THE H5 SPEED MAX BACK UNTIL SAT
NIGHT WHILE THE GFS BRINGS IT THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. EITHER WAY...A
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE A GOOD BET ON SAT AND A HIGH WIND WARNING MAY
BE NEEDED IF THE H5/H7 SPEED MAX DOES COME IN DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...WHEN DEEP MIXING COULD GET US GUSTING TO 60 MPH. SAT NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WINDY AS WELL...AND WIND HEADLINES
COULD BE NEEDED ALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

NEXT WEEK...
A SERIES OF VERY STRONG LATE SEASON COLD FRONTS ARE LOOKING LIKELY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF CURRENT INDICATIONS HOLD...THE PANHANDLES WILL
BE LUCKY TO GET THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITHOUT A FROST OR FREEZE. AT THE
VERY LEAST, MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKELY.

SIMPSON
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALL BUT CERTAIN ON WEDNESDAY
ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES IN VERY DRY AIR BEHIND A
DRYLINE...WHERE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THIS
WEEKEND, WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE ENTIRE PANHANDLES ON SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF
HERBACEOUS GREEN UP BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...SATURDAY WILL FEATURE
EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE
FUELS REMAIN DRY.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY BEFORE
MULTIPLE COLD FRONTS QUELL THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT NEXT WEEK.

SIMPSON
&&


.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MOORE...POTTER...RANDALL...
     SHERMAN.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...OLDHAM.

OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TEXAS.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$

14/09








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