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000
FXUS64 KAMA 011135 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
635 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OVER THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING.  SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL COMMENCE GUSTING INTO THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE MID- TO
LATE-MORNING...WITH ONSET OF SAME OCCURRING LATER AT KDHT DUE TO
PROXIMITY OF SURFACE TROF.

HIGH-BASED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CUMULUS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
PRIMARILY OVER NORTHWEST PART OF FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING KDHT...A
REGION WHERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
THUNDERSTORMS MOST LIKELY TO FORM BETWEEN 22Z TODAY AND 04Z
WEDNESDAY.  WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDER IN KDHT TAF DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOCATION AND TIMING OF DEVELOPMENT.

SURFACE WINDS LAY DOWN AROUND 01Z WEDNESDAY...REMAINING SOUTHERLY
BELOW 15 KT THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY.  NO OVERNIGHT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY STAGNANT PATTERN TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST
WEEK OF SEPTEMBER...HIGHLIGHTED BY SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES ALONG THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE LINGERING ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES EARLY THIS MORNING WITHIN THE MONSOON PLUME.
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN WEAK WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
30-40KT SOUTHERLY LLJ WERE HELPING TO SUSTAIN THIS CONVECTION. IT
SHOULD WANE A LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE ADVANCES
NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE LLJ VEERS TO THE SOUTHWEST.

AS WE START THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER...IT LOOKS LIKE SUMMERTIME TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER...WE WILL START TO SEE SOME SIGNS OF THE
TRANSITION TOWARD FALL...NAMELY IN THE FORM OF BREEZIER WINDS THAN
WE/VE SEEN THE PAST FEW MONTHS. WITH THE UPPER JET HAVING SHIFTED
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER/NORTHERN TIER STATES AND
STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS/LOWS BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS THIS PART
OF THE COUNTRY...STRONGER CROSS-MOUNTAIN FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
LEAD TO DEEPER LEE SURFACE TROUGHING...ULTIMATELY RESULTING IN
BREEZIER SOUTHERLY WINDS LOCALLY. RESULTANT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
HOWEVER KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO BE
STRONGLY TIED TO THE MONSOON. THE PANHANDLES WILL GENERALLY STAY IN
WEAK WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE. THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE
DRAPED ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES TODAY...SUPPORTING RENEWED ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SOME SUBTLE DRYING OF THE COLUMN
OCCURS...HOWEVER PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL STILL EXIST ACROSS THE
WESTERN PANHANDLES TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WEAK
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AXIS AND OROGRAPHIC
CIRCULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NM WILL AID
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FRIDAY INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE PAC NW/NORTHERN
ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN...ADVECTING THE MONSOON PLUME FARTHER EAST OVER
THE PANHANDLES. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE SOME ENHANCED TROPICAL
MOISTURE MAY GET INFUSED INTO THE MONSOON TAP DURING THIS TIME AS
WELL. THUS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXPAND OVER MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLES OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IT CERTAINLY DOESN/T LOOK LIKE A
WASHOUT...BUT DIURNAL HEATING ACTING ON THE MONSOON MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE POSSIBLE
COLD FRONT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH IT NOW LOOKING TO STRUGGLE TO
PUSH THIS FAR SOUTH AND BEING MUCH WEAKER IF IT DOES SO. THUS WARM
TEMPS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH LABOR DAY.

KB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                90  66  90  67  91 /   5   5   5   5   5
BEAVER OK                  94  70  95  70  96 /   5  10   5   5   5
BOISE CITY OK              91  65  93  65  93 /  30  30  10  10  20
BORGER TX                  94  70  93  71  94 /   5   5   5   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              94  67  94  68  94 /  10  10   5   5  10
CANYON TX                  91  66  91  65  91 /   5   5   5   5  10
CLARENDON TX               92  66  92  67  92 /   0   5   0   0   5
DALHART TX                 95  65  94  65  94 /  20  20  10  10  20
GUYMON OK                  94  68  94  68  94 /  10  10   5  10  10
HEREFORD TX                91  66  92  67  91 /  10  10   5   5  10
LIPSCOMB TX                94  69  93  69  94 /   5   5   0   0   5
PAMPA TX                   92  68  92  69  92 /   5   5   0   0   5
SHAMROCK TX                93  68  94  69  93 /   0   0   0   0   5
WELLINGTON TX              95  68  95  69  94 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/08





000
FXUS64 KAMA 011135 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
635 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OVER THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING.  SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL COMMENCE GUSTING INTO THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE MID- TO
LATE-MORNING...WITH ONSET OF SAME OCCURRING LATER AT KDHT DUE TO
PROXIMITY OF SURFACE TROF.

HIGH-BASED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CUMULUS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
PRIMARILY OVER NORTHWEST PART OF FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING KDHT...A
REGION WHERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
THUNDERSTORMS MOST LIKELY TO FORM BETWEEN 22Z TODAY AND 04Z
WEDNESDAY.  WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDER IN KDHT TAF DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOCATION AND TIMING OF DEVELOPMENT.

SURFACE WINDS LAY DOWN AROUND 01Z WEDNESDAY...REMAINING SOUTHERLY
BELOW 15 KT THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY.  NO OVERNIGHT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY STAGNANT PATTERN TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST
WEEK OF SEPTEMBER...HIGHLIGHTED BY SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES ALONG THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE LINGERING ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES EARLY THIS MORNING WITHIN THE MONSOON PLUME.
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN WEAK WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
30-40KT SOUTHERLY LLJ WERE HELPING TO SUSTAIN THIS CONVECTION. IT
SHOULD WANE A LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE ADVANCES
NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE LLJ VEERS TO THE SOUTHWEST.

AS WE START THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER...IT LOOKS LIKE SUMMERTIME TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER...WE WILL START TO SEE SOME SIGNS OF THE
TRANSITION TOWARD FALL...NAMELY IN THE FORM OF BREEZIER WINDS THAN
WE/VE SEEN THE PAST FEW MONTHS. WITH THE UPPER JET HAVING SHIFTED
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER/NORTHERN TIER STATES AND
STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS/LOWS BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS THIS PART
OF THE COUNTRY...STRONGER CROSS-MOUNTAIN FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
LEAD TO DEEPER LEE SURFACE TROUGHING...ULTIMATELY RESULTING IN
BREEZIER SOUTHERLY WINDS LOCALLY. RESULTANT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
HOWEVER KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO BE
STRONGLY TIED TO THE MONSOON. THE PANHANDLES WILL GENERALLY STAY IN
WEAK WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE. THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE
DRAPED ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES TODAY...SUPPORTING RENEWED ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SOME SUBTLE DRYING OF THE COLUMN
OCCURS...HOWEVER PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL STILL EXIST ACROSS THE
WESTERN PANHANDLES TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WEAK
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AXIS AND OROGRAPHIC
CIRCULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NM WILL AID
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FRIDAY INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE PAC NW/NORTHERN
ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN...ADVECTING THE MONSOON PLUME FARTHER EAST OVER
THE PANHANDLES. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE SOME ENHANCED TROPICAL
MOISTURE MAY GET INFUSED INTO THE MONSOON TAP DURING THIS TIME AS
WELL. THUS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXPAND OVER MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLES OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IT CERTAINLY DOESN/T LOOK LIKE A
WASHOUT...BUT DIURNAL HEATING ACTING ON THE MONSOON MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE POSSIBLE
COLD FRONT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH IT NOW LOOKING TO STRUGGLE TO
PUSH THIS FAR SOUTH AND BEING MUCH WEAKER IF IT DOES SO. THUS WARM
TEMPS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH LABOR DAY.

KB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                90  66  90  67  91 /   5   5   5   5   5
BEAVER OK                  94  70  95  70  96 /   5  10   5   5   5
BOISE CITY OK              91  65  93  65  93 /  30  30  10  10  20
BORGER TX                  94  70  93  71  94 /   5   5   5   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              94  67  94  68  94 /  10  10   5   5  10
CANYON TX                  91  66  91  65  91 /   5   5   5   5  10
CLARENDON TX               92  66  92  67  92 /   0   5   0   0   5
DALHART TX                 95  65  94  65  94 /  20  20  10  10  20
GUYMON OK                  94  68  94  68  94 /  10  10   5  10  10
HEREFORD TX                91  66  92  67  91 /  10  10   5   5  10
LIPSCOMB TX                94  69  93  69  94 /   5   5   0   0   5
PAMPA TX                   92  68  92  69  92 /   5   5   0   0   5
SHAMROCK TX                93  68  94  69  93 /   0   0   0   0   5
WELLINGTON TX              95  68  95  69  94 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/08




000
FXUS64 KAMA 011135 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
635 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OVER THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING.  SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL COMMENCE GUSTING INTO THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE MID- TO
LATE-MORNING...WITH ONSET OF SAME OCCURRING LATER AT KDHT DUE TO
PROXIMITY OF SURFACE TROF.

HIGH-BASED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CUMULUS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
PRIMARILY OVER NORTHWEST PART OF FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING KDHT...A
REGION WHERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
THUNDERSTORMS MOST LIKELY TO FORM BETWEEN 22Z TODAY AND 04Z
WEDNESDAY.  WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDER IN KDHT TAF DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOCATION AND TIMING OF DEVELOPMENT.

SURFACE WINDS LAY DOWN AROUND 01Z WEDNESDAY...REMAINING SOUTHERLY
BELOW 15 KT THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY.  NO OVERNIGHT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY STAGNANT PATTERN TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST
WEEK OF SEPTEMBER...HIGHLIGHTED BY SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES ALONG THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE LINGERING ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES EARLY THIS MORNING WITHIN THE MONSOON PLUME.
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN WEAK WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
30-40KT SOUTHERLY LLJ WERE HELPING TO SUSTAIN THIS CONVECTION. IT
SHOULD WANE A LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE ADVANCES
NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE LLJ VEERS TO THE SOUTHWEST.

AS WE START THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER...IT LOOKS LIKE SUMMERTIME TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER...WE WILL START TO SEE SOME SIGNS OF THE
TRANSITION TOWARD FALL...NAMELY IN THE FORM OF BREEZIER WINDS THAN
WE/VE SEEN THE PAST FEW MONTHS. WITH THE UPPER JET HAVING SHIFTED
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER/NORTHERN TIER STATES AND
STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS/LOWS BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS THIS PART
OF THE COUNTRY...STRONGER CROSS-MOUNTAIN FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
LEAD TO DEEPER LEE SURFACE TROUGHING...ULTIMATELY RESULTING IN
BREEZIER SOUTHERLY WINDS LOCALLY. RESULTANT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
HOWEVER KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO BE
STRONGLY TIED TO THE MONSOON. THE PANHANDLES WILL GENERALLY STAY IN
WEAK WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE. THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE
DRAPED ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES TODAY...SUPPORTING RENEWED ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SOME SUBTLE DRYING OF THE COLUMN
OCCURS...HOWEVER PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL STILL EXIST ACROSS THE
WESTERN PANHANDLES TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WEAK
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AXIS AND OROGRAPHIC
CIRCULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NM WILL AID
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FRIDAY INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE PAC NW/NORTHERN
ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN...ADVECTING THE MONSOON PLUME FARTHER EAST OVER
THE PANHANDLES. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE SOME ENHANCED TROPICAL
MOISTURE MAY GET INFUSED INTO THE MONSOON TAP DURING THIS TIME AS
WELL. THUS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXPAND OVER MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLES OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IT CERTAINLY DOESN/T LOOK LIKE A
WASHOUT...BUT DIURNAL HEATING ACTING ON THE MONSOON MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE POSSIBLE
COLD FRONT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH IT NOW LOOKING TO STRUGGLE TO
PUSH THIS FAR SOUTH AND BEING MUCH WEAKER IF IT DOES SO. THUS WARM
TEMPS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH LABOR DAY.

KB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                90  66  90  67  91 /   5   5   5   5   5
BEAVER OK                  94  70  95  70  96 /   5  10   5   5   5
BOISE CITY OK              91  65  93  65  93 /  30  30  10  10  20
BORGER TX                  94  70  93  71  94 /   5   5   5   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              94  67  94  68  94 /  10  10   5   5  10
CANYON TX                  91  66  91  65  91 /   5   5   5   5  10
CLARENDON TX               92  66  92  67  92 /   0   5   0   0   5
DALHART TX                 95  65  94  65  94 /  20  20  10  10  20
GUYMON OK                  94  68  94  68  94 /  10  10   5  10  10
HEREFORD TX                91  66  92  67  91 /  10  10   5   5  10
LIPSCOMB TX                94  69  93  69  94 /   5   5   0   0   5
PAMPA TX                   92  68  92  69  92 /   5   5   0   0   5
SHAMROCK TX                93  68  94  69  93 /   0   0   0   0   5
WELLINGTON TX              95  68  95  69  94 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/08





000
FXUS64 KAMA 011135 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
635 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OVER THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING.  SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL COMMENCE GUSTING INTO THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE MID- TO
LATE-MORNING...WITH ONSET OF SAME OCCURRING LATER AT KDHT DUE TO
PROXIMITY OF SURFACE TROF.

HIGH-BASED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CUMULUS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
PRIMARILY OVER NORTHWEST PART OF FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING KDHT...A
REGION WHERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
THUNDERSTORMS MOST LIKELY TO FORM BETWEEN 22Z TODAY AND 04Z
WEDNESDAY.  WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDER IN KDHT TAF DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOCATION AND TIMING OF DEVELOPMENT.

SURFACE WINDS LAY DOWN AROUND 01Z WEDNESDAY...REMAINING SOUTHERLY
BELOW 15 KT THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY.  NO OVERNIGHT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY STAGNANT PATTERN TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST
WEEK OF SEPTEMBER...HIGHLIGHTED BY SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES ALONG THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE LINGERING ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES EARLY THIS MORNING WITHIN THE MONSOON PLUME.
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN WEAK WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
30-40KT SOUTHERLY LLJ WERE HELPING TO SUSTAIN THIS CONVECTION. IT
SHOULD WANE A LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE ADVANCES
NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE LLJ VEERS TO THE SOUTHWEST.

AS WE START THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER...IT LOOKS LIKE SUMMERTIME TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER...WE WILL START TO SEE SOME SIGNS OF THE
TRANSITION TOWARD FALL...NAMELY IN THE FORM OF BREEZIER WINDS THAN
WE/VE SEEN THE PAST FEW MONTHS. WITH THE UPPER JET HAVING SHIFTED
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER/NORTHERN TIER STATES AND
STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS/LOWS BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS THIS PART
OF THE COUNTRY...STRONGER CROSS-MOUNTAIN FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
LEAD TO DEEPER LEE SURFACE TROUGHING...ULTIMATELY RESULTING IN
BREEZIER SOUTHERLY WINDS LOCALLY. RESULTANT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
HOWEVER KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO BE
STRONGLY TIED TO THE MONSOON. THE PANHANDLES WILL GENERALLY STAY IN
WEAK WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE. THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE
DRAPED ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES TODAY...SUPPORTING RENEWED ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SOME SUBTLE DRYING OF THE COLUMN
OCCURS...HOWEVER PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL STILL EXIST ACROSS THE
WESTERN PANHANDLES TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WEAK
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AXIS AND OROGRAPHIC
CIRCULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NM WILL AID
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FRIDAY INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE PAC NW/NORTHERN
ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN...ADVECTING THE MONSOON PLUME FARTHER EAST OVER
THE PANHANDLES. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE SOME ENHANCED TROPICAL
MOISTURE MAY GET INFUSED INTO THE MONSOON TAP DURING THIS TIME AS
WELL. THUS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXPAND OVER MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLES OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IT CERTAINLY DOESN/T LOOK LIKE A
WASHOUT...BUT DIURNAL HEATING ACTING ON THE MONSOON MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE POSSIBLE
COLD FRONT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH IT NOW LOOKING TO STRUGGLE TO
PUSH THIS FAR SOUTH AND BEING MUCH WEAKER IF IT DOES SO. THUS WARM
TEMPS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH LABOR DAY.

KB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                90  66  90  67  91 /   5   5   5   5   5
BEAVER OK                  94  70  95  70  96 /   5  10   5   5   5
BOISE CITY OK              91  65  93  65  93 /  30  30  10  10  20
BORGER TX                  94  70  93  71  94 /   5   5   5   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              94  67  94  68  94 /  10  10   5   5  10
CANYON TX                  91  66  91  65  91 /   5   5   5   5  10
CLARENDON TX               92  66  92  67  92 /   0   5   0   0   5
DALHART TX                 95  65  94  65  94 /  20  20  10  10  20
GUYMON OK                  94  68  94  68  94 /  10  10   5  10  10
HEREFORD TX                91  66  92  67  91 /  10  10   5   5  10
LIPSCOMB TX                94  69  93  69  94 /   5   5   0   0   5
PAMPA TX                   92  68  92  69  92 /   5   5   0   0   5
SHAMROCK TX                93  68  94  69  93 /   0   0   0   0   5
WELLINGTON TX              95  68  95  69  94 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/08




000
FXUS64 KAMA 010905
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
405 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY STAGNANT PATTERN TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST
WEEK OF SEPTEMBER...HIGHLIGHTED BY SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES ALONG THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE LINGERING ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES EARLY THIS MORNING WITHIN THE MONSOON PLUME.
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN WEAK WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
30-40KT SOUTHERLY LLJ WERE HELPING TO SUSTAIN THIS CONVECTION. IT
SHOULD WANE A LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE ADVANCES
NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE LLJ VEERS TO THE SOUTHWEST.

AS WE START THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER...IT LOOKS LIKE SUMMERTIME TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER...WE WILL START TO SEE SOME SIGNS OF THE
TRANSITION TOWARD FALL...NAMELY IN THE FORM OF BREEZIER WINDS THAN
WE/VE SEEN THE PAST FEW MONTHS. WITH THE UPPER JET HAVING SHIFTED
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER/NORTHERN TIER STATES AND
STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS/LOWS BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS THIS PART
OF THE COUNTRY...STRONGER CROSS-MOUNTAIN FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
LEAD TO DEEPER LEE SURFACE TROUGHING...ULTIMATELY RESULTING IN
BREEZIER SOUTHERLY WINDS LOCALLY. RESULTANT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
HOWEVER KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO BE
STRONGLY TIED TO THE MONSOON. THE PANHANDLES WILL GENERALLY STAY IN
WEAK WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE. THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE
DRAPED ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES TODAY...SUPPORTING RENEWED ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SOME SUBTLE DRYING OF THE COLUMN
OCCURS...HOWEVER PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL STILL EXIST ACROSS THE
WESTERN PANHANDLES TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WEAK
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AXIS AND OROGRAPHIC
CIRCULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NM WILL AID
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FRIDAY INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE PAC NW/NORTHERN
ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN...ADVECTING THE MONSOON PLUME FARTHER EAST OVER
THE PANHANDLES. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE SOME ENHANCED TROPICAL
MOISTURE MAY GET INFUSED INTO THE MONSOON TAP DURING THIS TIME AS
WELL. THUS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXPAND OVER MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLES OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IT CERTAINLY DOESN/T LOOK LIKE A
WASHOUT...BUT DIURNAL HEATING ACTING ON THE MONSOON MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE POSSIBLE
COLD FRONT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH IT NOW LOOKING TO STRUGGLE TO
PUSH THIS FAR SOUTH AND BEING MUCH WEAKER IF IT DOES SO. THUS WARM
TEMPS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH LABOR DAY.

KB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                90  66  90  67  91 /   5   5   5   5   5
BEAVER OK                  94  70  95  70  96 /   5  10   5   5   5
BOISE CITY OK              91  65  93  65  93 /  30  30  10  10  20
BORGER TX                  94  70  93  71  94 /   5   5   5   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              94  67  94  68  94 /  10  10   5   5  10
CANYON TX                  91  66  91  65  91 /   5   5   5   5  10
CLARENDON TX               92  66  92  67  92 /   0   5   0   0   5
DALHART TX                 95  65  94  65  94 /  20  20  10  10  20
GUYMON OK                  94  68  94  68  94 /  10  10   5  10  10
HEREFORD TX                91  66  92  67  91 /  10  10   5   5  10
LIPSCOMB TX                94  69  93  69  94 /   5   5   0   0   5
PAMPA TX                   92  68  92  69  92 /   5   5   0   0   5
SHAMROCK TX                93  68  94  69  93 /   0   0   0   0   5
WELLINGTON TX              95  68  95  69  94 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

3/8




000
FXUS64 KAMA 010905
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
405 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY STAGNANT PATTERN TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST
WEEK OF SEPTEMBER...HIGHLIGHTED BY SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES ALONG THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE LINGERING ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES EARLY THIS MORNING WITHIN THE MONSOON PLUME.
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN WEAK WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
30-40KT SOUTHERLY LLJ WERE HELPING TO SUSTAIN THIS CONVECTION. IT
SHOULD WANE A LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE ADVANCES
NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE LLJ VEERS TO THE SOUTHWEST.

AS WE START THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER...IT LOOKS LIKE SUMMERTIME TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER...WE WILL START TO SEE SOME SIGNS OF THE
TRANSITION TOWARD FALL...NAMELY IN THE FORM OF BREEZIER WINDS THAN
WE/VE SEEN THE PAST FEW MONTHS. WITH THE UPPER JET HAVING SHIFTED
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER/NORTHERN TIER STATES AND
STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS/LOWS BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS THIS PART
OF THE COUNTRY...STRONGER CROSS-MOUNTAIN FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
LEAD TO DEEPER LEE SURFACE TROUGHING...ULTIMATELY RESULTING IN
BREEZIER SOUTHERLY WINDS LOCALLY. RESULTANT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
HOWEVER KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO BE
STRONGLY TIED TO THE MONSOON. THE PANHANDLES WILL GENERALLY STAY IN
WEAK WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE. THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE
DRAPED ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES TODAY...SUPPORTING RENEWED ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SOME SUBTLE DRYING OF THE COLUMN
OCCURS...HOWEVER PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL STILL EXIST ACROSS THE
WESTERN PANHANDLES TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WEAK
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AXIS AND OROGRAPHIC
CIRCULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NM WILL AID
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FRIDAY INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE PAC NW/NORTHERN
ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN...ADVECTING THE MONSOON PLUME FARTHER EAST OVER
THE PANHANDLES. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE SOME ENHANCED TROPICAL
MOISTURE MAY GET INFUSED INTO THE MONSOON TAP DURING THIS TIME AS
WELL. THUS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXPAND OVER MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLES OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IT CERTAINLY DOESN/T LOOK LIKE A
WASHOUT...BUT DIURNAL HEATING ACTING ON THE MONSOON MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE POSSIBLE
COLD FRONT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH IT NOW LOOKING TO STRUGGLE TO
PUSH THIS FAR SOUTH AND BEING MUCH WEAKER IF IT DOES SO. THUS WARM
TEMPS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH LABOR DAY.

KB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                90  66  90  67  91 /   5   5   5   5   5
BEAVER OK                  94  70  95  70  96 /   5  10   5   5   5
BOISE CITY OK              91  65  93  65  93 /  30  30  10  10  20
BORGER TX                  94  70  93  71  94 /   5   5   5   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              94  67  94  68  94 /  10  10   5   5  10
CANYON TX                  91  66  91  65  91 /   5   5   5   5  10
CLARENDON TX               92  66  92  67  92 /   0   5   0   0   5
DALHART TX                 95  65  94  65  94 /  20  20  10  10  20
GUYMON OK                  94  68  94  68  94 /  10  10   5  10  10
HEREFORD TX                91  66  92  67  91 /  10  10   5   5  10
LIPSCOMB TX                94  69  93  69  94 /   5   5   0   0   5
PAMPA TX                   92  68  92  69  92 /   5   5   0   0   5
SHAMROCK TX                93  68  94  69  93 /   0   0   0   0   5
WELLINGTON TX              95  68  95  69  94 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

3/8




000
FXUS64 KAMA 010905
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
405 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY STAGNANT PATTERN TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST
WEEK OF SEPTEMBER...HIGHLIGHTED BY SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES ALONG THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE LINGERING ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES EARLY THIS MORNING WITHIN THE MONSOON PLUME.
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN WEAK WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
30-40KT SOUTHERLY LLJ WERE HELPING TO SUSTAIN THIS CONVECTION. IT
SHOULD WANE A LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE ADVANCES
NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE LLJ VEERS TO THE SOUTHWEST.

AS WE START THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER...IT LOOKS LIKE SUMMERTIME TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER...WE WILL START TO SEE SOME SIGNS OF THE
TRANSITION TOWARD FALL...NAMELY IN THE FORM OF BREEZIER WINDS THAN
WE/VE SEEN THE PAST FEW MONTHS. WITH THE UPPER JET HAVING SHIFTED
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER/NORTHERN TIER STATES AND
STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS/LOWS BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS THIS PART
OF THE COUNTRY...STRONGER CROSS-MOUNTAIN FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
LEAD TO DEEPER LEE SURFACE TROUGHING...ULTIMATELY RESULTING IN
BREEZIER SOUTHERLY WINDS LOCALLY. RESULTANT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
HOWEVER KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO BE
STRONGLY TIED TO THE MONSOON. THE PANHANDLES WILL GENERALLY STAY IN
WEAK WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE. THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE
DRAPED ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES TODAY...SUPPORTING RENEWED ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SOME SUBTLE DRYING OF THE COLUMN
OCCURS...HOWEVER PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL STILL EXIST ACROSS THE
WESTERN PANHANDLES TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WEAK
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AXIS AND OROGRAPHIC
CIRCULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NM WILL AID
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FRIDAY INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE PAC NW/NORTHERN
ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN...ADVECTING THE MONSOON PLUME FARTHER EAST OVER
THE PANHANDLES. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE SOME ENHANCED TROPICAL
MOISTURE MAY GET INFUSED INTO THE MONSOON TAP DURING THIS TIME AS
WELL. THUS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXPAND OVER MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLES OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IT CERTAINLY DOESN/T LOOK LIKE A
WASHOUT...BUT DIURNAL HEATING ACTING ON THE MONSOON MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE POSSIBLE
COLD FRONT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH IT NOW LOOKING TO STRUGGLE TO
PUSH THIS FAR SOUTH AND BEING MUCH WEAKER IF IT DOES SO. THUS WARM
TEMPS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH LABOR DAY.

KB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                90  66  90  67  91 /   5   5   5   5   5
BEAVER OK                  94  70  95  70  96 /   5  10   5   5   5
BOISE CITY OK              91  65  93  65  93 /  30  30  10  10  20
BORGER TX                  94  70  93  71  94 /   5   5   5   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              94  67  94  68  94 /  10  10   5   5  10
CANYON TX                  91  66  91  65  91 /   5   5   5   5  10
CLARENDON TX               92  66  92  67  92 /   0   5   0   0   5
DALHART TX                 95  65  94  65  94 /  20  20  10  10  20
GUYMON OK                  94  68  94  68  94 /  10  10   5  10  10
HEREFORD TX                91  66  92  67  91 /  10  10   5   5  10
LIPSCOMB TX                94  69  93  69  94 /   5   5   0   0   5
PAMPA TX                   92  68  92  69  92 /   5   5   0   0   5
SHAMROCK TX                93  68  94  69  93 /   0   0   0   0   5
WELLINGTON TX              95  68  95  69  94 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

3/8





000
FXUS64 KAMA 010335 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1035 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THEN THEY WILL HEAD EAST. DHT
STANDS THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING A THUNDERSTORM LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS POINT THEY LOOK TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION IN
THIS FORECAST. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. CURRENTLY...THERE IS
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY KEEP THUNDERSTORMS
GOING INTO THE EARLY MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY GET CLOSE TO THE GUY
TAF SITE...BUT THINK WINDS WILL STAY AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GET GUSTY BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY AND THEN THEY
WILL DECREASE AND BACK SOME TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

AVIATION...
ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY NORTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND
AGAIN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL INCREASE AND GET GUSTY BY LATE
MORNING ON TUESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND WEST TEXAS
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AND WILL THEN BEGIN MOVING EAST AWAY FROM
THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES
TONIGHT...AND MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES
TUESDAY ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY HELPING TO INITIATE ANY CONVECTION. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS BEHIND THE DEPARTING
UPPER TROUGH AND AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE PANHANDLES BY THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND OTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES BY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT OVER THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES TUESDAY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE LOW INTO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. THIS SURFACE TROUGH
WILL MEANDER ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PANHANDLES
THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WHICH WILL HELP TO
INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS WEEK...SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/12





000
FXUS64 KAMA 010335 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1035 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THEN THEY WILL HEAD EAST. DHT
STANDS THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING A THUNDERSTORM LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS POINT THEY LOOK TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION IN
THIS FORECAST. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. CURRENTLY...THERE IS
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY KEEP THUNDERSTORMS
GOING INTO THE EARLY MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY GET CLOSE TO THE GUY
TAF SITE...BUT THINK WINDS WILL STAY AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GET GUSTY BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY AND THEN THEY
WILL DECREASE AND BACK SOME TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

AVIATION...
ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY NORTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND
AGAIN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL INCREASE AND GET GUSTY BY LATE
MORNING ON TUESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND WEST TEXAS
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AND WILL THEN BEGIN MOVING EAST AWAY FROM
THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES
TONIGHT...AND MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES
TUESDAY ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY HELPING TO INITIATE ANY CONVECTION. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS BEHIND THE DEPARTING
UPPER TROUGH AND AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE PANHANDLES BY THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND OTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES BY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT OVER THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES TUESDAY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE LOW INTO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. THIS SURFACE TROUGH
WILL MEANDER ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PANHANDLES
THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WHICH WILL HELP TO
INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS WEEK...SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/12




000
FXUS64 KAMA 312310 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
610 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...
ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY NORTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND
AGAIN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL INCREASE AND GET GUSTY BY LATE
MORNING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND WEST TEXAS
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AND WILL THEN BEGIN MOVING EAST AWAY FROM
THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES
TONIGHT...AND MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES
TUESDAY ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY HELPING TO INITIATE ANY CONVECTION. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS BEHIND THE DEPARTING
UPPER TROUGH AND AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE PANHANDLES BY THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND OTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES BY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT OVER THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES TUESDAY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE LOW INTO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. THIS SURFACE TROUGH
WILL MEANDER ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PANHANDLES
THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WHICH WILL HELP TO
INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS WEEK...SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/99




000
FXUS64 KAMA 312310 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
610 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...
ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY NORTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND
AGAIN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL INCREASE AND GET GUSTY BY LATE
MORNING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND WEST TEXAS
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AND WILL THEN BEGIN MOVING EAST AWAY FROM
THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES
TONIGHT...AND MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES
TUESDAY ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY HELPING TO INITIATE ANY CONVECTION. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS BEHIND THE DEPARTING
UPPER TROUGH AND AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE PANHANDLES BY THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND OTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES BY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT OVER THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES TUESDAY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE LOW INTO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. THIS SURFACE TROUGH
WILL MEANDER ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PANHANDLES
THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WHICH WILL HELP TO
INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS WEEK...SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/99





000
FXUS64 KAMA 312310 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
610 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...
ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY NORTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND
AGAIN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL INCREASE AND GET GUSTY BY LATE
MORNING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND WEST TEXAS
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AND WILL THEN BEGIN MOVING EAST AWAY FROM
THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES
TONIGHT...AND MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES
TUESDAY ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY HELPING TO INITIATE ANY CONVECTION. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS BEHIND THE DEPARTING
UPPER TROUGH AND AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE PANHANDLES BY THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND OTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES BY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT OVER THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES TUESDAY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE LOW INTO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. THIS SURFACE TROUGH
WILL MEANDER ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PANHANDLES
THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WHICH WILL HELP TO
INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS WEEK...SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/99





000
FXUS64 KAMA 312043
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
343 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND WEST TEXAS
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AND WILL THEN BEGIN MOVING EAST AWAY FROM
THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES
TONIGHT...AND MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES
TUESDAY ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY HELPING TO INITIATE ANY CONVECTION. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS BEHIND THE DEPARTING
UPPER TROUGH AND AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE PANHANDLES BY THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND OTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES BY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT OVER THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES TUESDAY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE LOW INTO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. THIS SURFACE TROUGH
WILL MEANDER ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PANHANDLES
THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WHICH WILL HELP TO
INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS WEEK...SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                64  92  66  90  65 /   5   5   5   5   5
BEAVER OK                  66  94  69  94  69 /   5  10  10   5   5
BOISE CITY OK              62  90  63  93  62 /  20  20  10  10  10
BORGER TX                  68  93  71  94  69 /   5   5   5   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              64  94  66  94  66 /   5  10   5   5   5
CANYON TX                  64  92  64  90  64 /   5   5   5   5   5
CLARENDON TX               65  91  66  91  65 /   0   0   5   5   5
DALHART TX                 61  92  65  95  63 /  10  20  10   5  10
GUYMON OK                  64  94  67  95  66 /   5  10  10   5   5
HEREFORD TX                63  92  64  91  66 /   5   5   5   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                68  94  69  92  68 /   5   5  10   5   5
PAMPA TX                   63  90  66  90  67 /   5   5   5   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                69  94  68  92  67 /   0   0   5   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              69  94  68  93  68 /   0   0   5   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/11





000
FXUS64 KAMA 312043
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
343 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND WEST TEXAS
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AND WILL THEN BEGIN MOVING EAST AWAY FROM
THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES
TONIGHT...AND MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES
TUESDAY ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY HELPING TO INITIATE ANY CONVECTION. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS BEHIND THE DEPARTING
UPPER TROUGH AND AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE PANHANDLES BY THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND OTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES BY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT OVER THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES TUESDAY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE LOW INTO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. THIS SURFACE TROUGH
WILL MEANDER ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PANHANDLES
THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WHICH WILL HELP TO
INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS WEEK...SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                64  92  66  90  65 /   5   5   5   5   5
BEAVER OK                  66  94  69  94  69 /   5  10  10   5   5
BOISE CITY OK              62  90  63  93  62 /  20  20  10  10  10
BORGER TX                  68  93  71  94  69 /   5   5   5   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              64  94  66  94  66 /   5  10   5   5   5
CANYON TX                  64  92  64  90  64 /   5   5   5   5   5
CLARENDON TX               65  91  66  91  65 /   0   0   5   5   5
DALHART TX                 61  92  65  95  63 /  10  20  10   5  10
GUYMON OK                  64  94  67  95  66 /   5  10  10   5   5
HEREFORD TX                63  92  64  91  66 /   5   5   5   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                68  94  69  92  68 /   5   5  10   5   5
PAMPA TX                   63  90  66  90  67 /   5   5   5   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                69  94  68  92  67 /   0   0   5   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              69  94  68  93  68 /   0   0   5   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/11




000
FXUS64 KAMA 311719
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1219 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES THIS
EVENING, BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INSERT INTO PREVAILING
CONDITIONS. SHOULD ANY CONVECTION REACH A TERMINAL...DALHART WOULD
HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT BEFORE
PICKING UP ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

AVIATION... /FOR THE 12Z TAFS/
LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN LATER THIS MORNING. GUSTS
BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL THREE
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND BACK TO SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH ONE UNCERTAINTY IS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HAZE/SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN THE NORTHWEST UNITED
STATES BROUGHT IN BY NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS. VISIBILITIES
DECREASED AT KDHT AND KGUY LAST EVENING. FOR THE MOST PART THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOSTLY APPEAR AS THIN CIRRUS AND NOT IMPACT
VISIBILITY AT TERMINALS. WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN VISIBILITY AND MAKE
AMENDMENTS AS NECESSARY BUT FOR NOW HAVE NO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

BRB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE STRETCHED FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING...FLANKED BY A
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH OVER SOUTH TX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE MONSOON MOISTURE
PLUME FOCUSED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NM INTO AZ...WITH A RATHER
DRY AIRMASS ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITHIN THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS. THIS WAS REFLECTED IN THE 0.69 INCH PWAT VALUE IN THE AMA
SOUNDING FROM LAST EVENING...WHICH IS ONE OF THE LOWER VALUES WE/VE
SEEN THIS SUMMER. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE MONSOON PLUME WILL BEGIN TO
ADVECT EASTWARD TODAY AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE AND THE UPPER RIDGE. THE
MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO CLIP THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THESE
AREAS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
CO/NORTHWEST NM...MAY AID THESE CHANCES. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER WARM LATE AUGUST DAY. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GET A LITTLE
BREEZY TODAY AS THE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS...WHICH COMBINED WITH WARMING
H85 TEMPS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE PATTERN DOESN/T CHANGE MUCH INTO
TUESDAY. WITH THE MONSOON PLUME STILL BENT OVER THE NORTHWEST
PANHANDLES...DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. BOTH
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT ALONG THE LLJ AXIS MAY HELP A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AGAIN BE A BIT
BREEZY ON TUESDAY AS THE LEE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH SIMILAR
TEMPS TO TODAY EXPECTED.

HAVE KEPT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE
MONSOON PLUME DRIES OUT A BIT DURING THIS TIME BENEATH THE UPPER
RIDGE. HOWEVER CERTAINLY CAN/T RULE OUT A STORM IN THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES THESE DAYS. LATE THIS WEEK...A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL
DIG INTO THE PAC NW...SHUNTING THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD. THE
MONSOON PLUME LOOKS TO GET RE-ENERGIZED DURING THIS TIME BY SOME
TROPICAL MOISTURE...WITH THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM
OF THE PAC NW TROUGH HELPING TO ADVECT THIS MOISTURE OVER THE
PANHANDLES. THUS RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE ON THE INCREASE BY FRIDAY
INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA AROUND LABOR DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
EVENTUALLY PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ACTUAL TIMING WILL
OF COURSE DEPEND ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH...BUT
IF THE FRONT MAKES IT IN BEFORE THE MONSOON PLUME ERODES...IT COULD
GREATLY ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES. STILL A LONG WAYS OUT...BUT SOMETHING
TO WATCH OVER THE COMING DAYS.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/11





000
FXUS64 KAMA 311719
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1219 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES THIS
EVENING, BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INSERT INTO PREVAILING
CONDITIONS. SHOULD ANY CONVECTION REACH A TERMINAL...DALHART WOULD
HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT BEFORE
PICKING UP ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

AVIATION... /FOR THE 12Z TAFS/
LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN LATER THIS MORNING. GUSTS
BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL THREE
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND BACK TO SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH ONE UNCERTAINTY IS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HAZE/SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN THE NORTHWEST UNITED
STATES BROUGHT IN BY NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS. VISIBILITIES
DECREASED AT KDHT AND KGUY LAST EVENING. FOR THE MOST PART THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOSTLY APPEAR AS THIN CIRRUS AND NOT IMPACT
VISIBILITY AT TERMINALS. WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN VISIBILITY AND MAKE
AMENDMENTS AS NECESSARY BUT FOR NOW HAVE NO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

BRB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE STRETCHED FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING...FLANKED BY A
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH OVER SOUTH TX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE MONSOON MOISTURE
PLUME FOCUSED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NM INTO AZ...WITH A RATHER
DRY AIRMASS ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITHIN THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS. THIS WAS REFLECTED IN THE 0.69 INCH PWAT VALUE IN THE AMA
SOUNDING FROM LAST EVENING...WHICH IS ONE OF THE LOWER VALUES WE/VE
SEEN THIS SUMMER. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE MONSOON PLUME WILL BEGIN TO
ADVECT EASTWARD TODAY AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE AND THE UPPER RIDGE. THE
MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO CLIP THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THESE
AREAS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
CO/NORTHWEST NM...MAY AID THESE CHANCES. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER WARM LATE AUGUST DAY. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GET A LITTLE
BREEZY TODAY AS THE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS...WHICH COMBINED WITH WARMING
H85 TEMPS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE PATTERN DOESN/T CHANGE MUCH INTO
TUESDAY. WITH THE MONSOON PLUME STILL BENT OVER THE NORTHWEST
PANHANDLES...DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. BOTH
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT ALONG THE LLJ AXIS MAY HELP A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AGAIN BE A BIT
BREEZY ON TUESDAY AS THE LEE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH SIMILAR
TEMPS TO TODAY EXPECTED.

HAVE KEPT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE
MONSOON PLUME DRIES OUT A BIT DURING THIS TIME BENEATH THE UPPER
RIDGE. HOWEVER CERTAINLY CAN/T RULE OUT A STORM IN THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES THESE DAYS. LATE THIS WEEK...A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL
DIG INTO THE PAC NW...SHUNTING THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD. THE
MONSOON PLUME LOOKS TO GET RE-ENERGIZED DURING THIS TIME BY SOME
TROPICAL MOISTURE...WITH THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM
OF THE PAC NW TROUGH HELPING TO ADVECT THIS MOISTURE OVER THE
PANHANDLES. THUS RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE ON THE INCREASE BY FRIDAY
INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA AROUND LABOR DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
EVENTUALLY PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ACTUAL TIMING WILL
OF COURSE DEPEND ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH...BUT
IF THE FRONT MAKES IT IN BEFORE THE MONSOON PLUME ERODES...IT COULD
GREATLY ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES. STILL A LONG WAYS OUT...BUT SOMETHING
TO WATCH OVER THE COMING DAYS.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/11




000
FXUS64 KAMA 311719
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1219 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES THIS
EVENING, BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INSERT INTO PREVAILING
CONDITIONS. SHOULD ANY CONVECTION REACH A TERMINAL...DALHART WOULD
HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT BEFORE
PICKING UP ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

AVIATION... /FOR THE 12Z TAFS/
LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN LATER THIS MORNING. GUSTS
BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL THREE
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND BACK TO SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH ONE UNCERTAINTY IS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HAZE/SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN THE NORTHWEST UNITED
STATES BROUGHT IN BY NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS. VISIBILITIES
DECREASED AT KDHT AND KGUY LAST EVENING. FOR THE MOST PART THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOSTLY APPEAR AS THIN CIRRUS AND NOT IMPACT
VISIBILITY AT TERMINALS. WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN VISIBILITY AND MAKE
AMENDMENTS AS NECESSARY BUT FOR NOW HAVE NO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

BRB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE STRETCHED FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING...FLANKED BY A
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH OVER SOUTH TX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE MONSOON MOISTURE
PLUME FOCUSED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NM INTO AZ...WITH A RATHER
DRY AIRMASS ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITHIN THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS. THIS WAS REFLECTED IN THE 0.69 INCH PWAT VALUE IN THE AMA
SOUNDING FROM LAST EVENING...WHICH IS ONE OF THE LOWER VALUES WE/VE
SEEN THIS SUMMER. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE MONSOON PLUME WILL BEGIN TO
ADVECT EASTWARD TODAY AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE AND THE UPPER RIDGE. THE
MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO CLIP THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THESE
AREAS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
CO/NORTHWEST NM...MAY AID THESE CHANCES. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER WARM LATE AUGUST DAY. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GET A LITTLE
BREEZY TODAY AS THE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS...WHICH COMBINED WITH WARMING
H85 TEMPS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE PATTERN DOESN/T CHANGE MUCH INTO
TUESDAY. WITH THE MONSOON PLUME STILL BENT OVER THE NORTHWEST
PANHANDLES...DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. BOTH
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT ALONG THE LLJ AXIS MAY HELP A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AGAIN BE A BIT
BREEZY ON TUESDAY AS THE LEE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH SIMILAR
TEMPS TO TODAY EXPECTED.

HAVE KEPT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE
MONSOON PLUME DRIES OUT A BIT DURING THIS TIME BENEATH THE UPPER
RIDGE. HOWEVER CERTAINLY CAN/T RULE OUT A STORM IN THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES THESE DAYS. LATE THIS WEEK...A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL
DIG INTO THE PAC NW...SHUNTING THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD. THE
MONSOON PLUME LOOKS TO GET RE-ENERGIZED DURING THIS TIME BY SOME
TROPICAL MOISTURE...WITH THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM
OF THE PAC NW TROUGH HELPING TO ADVECT THIS MOISTURE OVER THE
PANHANDLES. THUS RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE ON THE INCREASE BY FRIDAY
INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA AROUND LABOR DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
EVENTUALLY PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ACTUAL TIMING WILL
OF COURSE DEPEND ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH...BUT
IF THE FRONT MAKES IT IN BEFORE THE MONSOON PLUME ERODES...IT COULD
GREATLY ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES. STILL A LONG WAYS OUT...BUT SOMETHING
TO WATCH OVER THE COMING DAYS.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/11





000
FXUS64 KAMA 311100
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
600 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION... /FOR THE 12Z TAFS/
LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN LATER THIS MORNING. GUSTS
BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL THREE
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND BACK TO SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH ONE UNCERTAINTY IS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HAZE/SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN THE NORTHWEST UNITED
STATES BROUGHT IN BY NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS. VISIBILITIES
DECREASED AT KDHT AND KGUY LAST EVENING. FOR THE MOST PART THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOSTLY APPEAR AS THIN CIRRUS AND NOT IMPACT
VISIBILITY AT TERMINALS. WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN VISIBILITY AND MAKE
AMENDMENTS AS NECESSARY BUT FOR NOW HAVE NO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE STRETCHED FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING...FLANKED BY A
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH OVER SOUTH TX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE MONSOON MOISTURE
PLUME FOCUSED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NM INTO AZ...WITH A RATHER
DRY AIRMASS ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITHIN THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS. THIS WAS REFLECTED IN THE 0.69 INCH PWAT VALUE IN THE AMA
SOUNDING FROM LAST EVENING...WHICH IS ONE OF THE LOWER VALUES WE/VE
SEEN THIS SUMMER. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE MONSOON PLUME WILL BEGIN TO
ADVECT EASTWARD TODAY AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE AND THE UPPER RIDGE. THE
MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO CLIP THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THESE
AREAS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
CO/NORTHWEST NM...MAY AID THESE CHANCES. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER WARM LATE AUGUST DAY. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GET A LITTLE
BREEZY TODAY AS THE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS...WHICH COMBINED WITH WARMING
H85 TEMPS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE PATTERN DOESN/T CHANGE MUCH INTO
TUESDAY. WITH THE MONSOON PLUME STILL BENT OVER THE NORTHWEST
PANHANDLES...DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. BOTH
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT ALONG THE LLJ AXIS MAY HELP A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AGAIN BE A BIT
BREEZY ON TUESDAY AS THE LEE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH SIMILAR
TEMPS TO TODAY EXPECTED.

HAVE KEPT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE
MONSOON PLUME DRIES OUT A BIT DURING THIS TIME BENEATH THE UPPER
RIDGE. HOWEVER CERTAINLY CAN/T RULE OUT A STORM IN THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES THESE DAYS. LATE THIS WEEK...A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL
DIG INTO THE PAC NW...SHUNTING THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD. THE
MONSOON PLUME LOOKS TO GET RE-ENERGIZED DURING THIS TIME BY SOME
TROPICAL MOISTURE...WITH THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM
OF THE PAC NW TROUGH HELPING TO ADVECT THIS MOISTURE OVER THE
PANHANDLES. THUS RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE ON THE INCREASE BY FRIDAY
INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA AROUND LABOR DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
EVENTUALLY PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ACTUAL TIMING WILL
OF COURSE DEPEND ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH...BUT
IF THE FRONT MAKES IT IN BEFORE THE MONSOON PLUME ERODES...IT COULD
GREATLY ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES. STILL A LONG WAYS OUT...BUT SOMETHING
TO WATCH OVER THE COMING DAYS.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/8




000
FXUS64 KAMA 311100
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
600 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION... /FOR THE 12Z TAFS/
LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN LATER THIS MORNING. GUSTS
BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL THREE
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND BACK TO SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH ONE UNCERTAINTY IS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HAZE/SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN THE NORTHWEST UNITED
STATES BROUGHT IN BY NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS. VISIBILITIES
DECREASED AT KDHT AND KGUY LAST EVENING. FOR THE MOST PART THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOSTLY APPEAR AS THIN CIRRUS AND NOT IMPACT
VISIBILITY AT TERMINALS. WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN VISIBILITY AND MAKE
AMENDMENTS AS NECESSARY BUT FOR NOW HAVE NO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE STRETCHED FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING...FLANKED BY A
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH OVER SOUTH TX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE MONSOON MOISTURE
PLUME FOCUSED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NM INTO AZ...WITH A RATHER
DRY AIRMASS ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITHIN THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS. THIS WAS REFLECTED IN THE 0.69 INCH PWAT VALUE IN THE AMA
SOUNDING FROM LAST EVENING...WHICH IS ONE OF THE LOWER VALUES WE/VE
SEEN THIS SUMMER. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE MONSOON PLUME WILL BEGIN TO
ADVECT EASTWARD TODAY AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE AND THE UPPER RIDGE. THE
MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO CLIP THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THESE
AREAS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
CO/NORTHWEST NM...MAY AID THESE CHANCES. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER WARM LATE AUGUST DAY. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GET A LITTLE
BREEZY TODAY AS THE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS...WHICH COMBINED WITH WARMING
H85 TEMPS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE PATTERN DOESN/T CHANGE MUCH INTO
TUESDAY. WITH THE MONSOON PLUME STILL BENT OVER THE NORTHWEST
PANHANDLES...DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. BOTH
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT ALONG THE LLJ AXIS MAY HELP A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AGAIN BE A BIT
BREEZY ON TUESDAY AS THE LEE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH SIMILAR
TEMPS TO TODAY EXPECTED.

HAVE KEPT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE
MONSOON PLUME DRIES OUT A BIT DURING THIS TIME BENEATH THE UPPER
RIDGE. HOWEVER CERTAINLY CAN/T RULE OUT A STORM IN THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES THESE DAYS. LATE THIS WEEK...A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL
DIG INTO THE PAC NW...SHUNTING THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD. THE
MONSOON PLUME LOOKS TO GET RE-ENERGIZED DURING THIS TIME BY SOME
TROPICAL MOISTURE...WITH THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM
OF THE PAC NW TROUGH HELPING TO ADVECT THIS MOISTURE OVER THE
PANHANDLES. THUS RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE ON THE INCREASE BY FRIDAY
INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA AROUND LABOR DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
EVENTUALLY PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ACTUAL TIMING WILL
OF COURSE DEPEND ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH...BUT
IF THE FRONT MAKES IT IN BEFORE THE MONSOON PLUME ERODES...IT COULD
GREATLY ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES. STILL A LONG WAYS OUT...BUT SOMETHING
TO WATCH OVER THE COMING DAYS.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/8




000
FXUS64 KAMA 311100
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
600 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION... /FOR THE 12Z TAFS/
LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN LATER THIS MORNING. GUSTS
BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL THREE
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND BACK TO SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH ONE UNCERTAINTY IS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HAZE/SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN THE NORTHWEST UNITED
STATES BROUGHT IN BY NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS. VISIBILITIES
DECREASED AT KDHT AND KGUY LAST EVENING. FOR THE MOST PART THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOSTLY APPEAR AS THIN CIRRUS AND NOT IMPACT
VISIBILITY AT TERMINALS. WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN VISIBILITY AND MAKE
AMENDMENTS AS NECESSARY BUT FOR NOW HAVE NO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE STRETCHED FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING...FLANKED BY A
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH OVER SOUTH TX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE MONSOON MOISTURE
PLUME FOCUSED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NM INTO AZ...WITH A RATHER
DRY AIRMASS ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITHIN THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS. THIS WAS REFLECTED IN THE 0.69 INCH PWAT VALUE IN THE AMA
SOUNDING FROM LAST EVENING...WHICH IS ONE OF THE LOWER VALUES WE/VE
SEEN THIS SUMMER. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE MONSOON PLUME WILL BEGIN TO
ADVECT EASTWARD TODAY AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE AND THE UPPER RIDGE. THE
MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO CLIP THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THESE
AREAS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
CO/NORTHWEST NM...MAY AID THESE CHANCES. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER WARM LATE AUGUST DAY. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GET A LITTLE
BREEZY TODAY AS THE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS...WHICH COMBINED WITH WARMING
H85 TEMPS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE PATTERN DOESN/T CHANGE MUCH INTO
TUESDAY. WITH THE MONSOON PLUME STILL BENT OVER THE NORTHWEST
PANHANDLES...DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. BOTH
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT ALONG THE LLJ AXIS MAY HELP A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AGAIN BE A BIT
BREEZY ON TUESDAY AS THE LEE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH SIMILAR
TEMPS TO TODAY EXPECTED.

HAVE KEPT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE
MONSOON PLUME DRIES OUT A BIT DURING THIS TIME BENEATH THE UPPER
RIDGE. HOWEVER CERTAINLY CAN/T RULE OUT A STORM IN THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES THESE DAYS. LATE THIS WEEK...A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL
DIG INTO THE PAC NW...SHUNTING THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD. THE
MONSOON PLUME LOOKS TO GET RE-ENERGIZED DURING THIS TIME BY SOME
TROPICAL MOISTURE...WITH THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM
OF THE PAC NW TROUGH HELPING TO ADVECT THIS MOISTURE OVER THE
PANHANDLES. THUS RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE ON THE INCREASE BY FRIDAY
INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA AROUND LABOR DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
EVENTUALLY PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ACTUAL TIMING WILL
OF COURSE DEPEND ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH...BUT
IF THE FRONT MAKES IT IN BEFORE THE MONSOON PLUME ERODES...IT COULD
GREATLY ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES. STILL A LONG WAYS OUT...BUT SOMETHING
TO WATCH OVER THE COMING DAYS.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/8





000
FXUS64 KAMA 311100
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
600 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION... /FOR THE 12Z TAFS/
LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN LATER THIS MORNING. GUSTS
BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL THREE
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND BACK TO SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH ONE UNCERTAINTY IS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HAZE/SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN THE NORTHWEST UNITED
STATES BROUGHT IN BY NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS. VISIBILITIES
DECREASED AT KDHT AND KGUY LAST EVENING. FOR THE MOST PART THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOSTLY APPEAR AS THIN CIRRUS AND NOT IMPACT
VISIBILITY AT TERMINALS. WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN VISIBILITY AND MAKE
AMENDMENTS AS NECESSARY BUT FOR NOW HAVE NO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE STRETCHED FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING...FLANKED BY A
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH OVER SOUTH TX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE MONSOON MOISTURE
PLUME FOCUSED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NM INTO AZ...WITH A RATHER
DRY AIRMASS ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITHIN THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS. THIS WAS REFLECTED IN THE 0.69 INCH PWAT VALUE IN THE AMA
SOUNDING FROM LAST EVENING...WHICH IS ONE OF THE LOWER VALUES WE/VE
SEEN THIS SUMMER. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE MONSOON PLUME WILL BEGIN TO
ADVECT EASTWARD TODAY AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE AND THE UPPER RIDGE. THE
MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO CLIP THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THESE
AREAS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
CO/NORTHWEST NM...MAY AID THESE CHANCES. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER WARM LATE AUGUST DAY. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GET A LITTLE
BREEZY TODAY AS THE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS...WHICH COMBINED WITH WARMING
H85 TEMPS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE PATTERN DOESN/T CHANGE MUCH INTO
TUESDAY. WITH THE MONSOON PLUME STILL BENT OVER THE NORTHWEST
PANHANDLES...DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. BOTH
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT ALONG THE LLJ AXIS MAY HELP A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AGAIN BE A BIT
BREEZY ON TUESDAY AS THE LEE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH SIMILAR
TEMPS TO TODAY EXPECTED.

HAVE KEPT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE
MONSOON PLUME DRIES OUT A BIT DURING THIS TIME BENEATH THE UPPER
RIDGE. HOWEVER CERTAINLY CAN/T RULE OUT A STORM IN THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES THESE DAYS. LATE THIS WEEK...A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL
DIG INTO THE PAC NW...SHUNTING THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD. THE
MONSOON PLUME LOOKS TO GET RE-ENERGIZED DURING THIS TIME BY SOME
TROPICAL MOISTURE...WITH THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM
OF THE PAC NW TROUGH HELPING TO ADVECT THIS MOISTURE OVER THE
PANHANDLES. THUS RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE ON THE INCREASE BY FRIDAY
INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA AROUND LABOR DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
EVENTUALLY PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ACTUAL TIMING WILL
OF COURSE DEPEND ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH...BUT
IF THE FRONT MAKES IT IN BEFORE THE MONSOON PLUME ERODES...IT COULD
GREATLY ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES. STILL A LONG WAYS OUT...BUT SOMETHING
TO WATCH OVER THE COMING DAYS.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/8





000
FXUS64 KAMA 310914
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
414 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE STRETCHED FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING...FLANKED BY A
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH OVER SOUTH TX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE MONSOON MOISTURE
PLUME FOCUSED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NM INTO AZ...WITH A RATHER
DRY AIRMASS ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITHIN THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS. THIS WAS REFLECTED IN THE 0.69 INCH PWAT VALUE IN THE AMA
SOUNDING FROM LAST EVENING...WHICH IS ONE OF THE LOWER VALUES WE/VE
SEEN THIS SUMMER. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE MONSOON PLUME WILL BEGIN TO
ADVECT EASTWARD TODAY AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE AND THE UPPER RIDGE. THE
MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO CLIP THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THESE
AREAS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
CO/NORTHWEST NM...MAY AID THESE CHANCES. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER WARM LATE AUGUST DAY. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GET A LITTLE
BREEZY TODAY AS THE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS...WHICH COMBINED WITH WARMING
H85 TEMPS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE PATTERN DOESN/T CHANGE MUCH INTO
TUESDAY. WITH THE MONSOON PLUME STILL BENT OVER THE NORTHWEST
PANHANDLES...DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. BOTH
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT ALONG THE LLJ AXIS MAY HELP A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AGAIN BE A BIT
BREEZY ON TUESDAY AS THE LEE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH SIMILAR
TEMPS TO TODAY EXPECTED.

HAVE KEPT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE
MONSOON PLUME DRIES OUT A BIT DURING THIS TIME BENEATH THE UPPER
RIDGE. HOWEVER CERTAINLY CAN/T RULE OUT A STORM IN THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES THESE DAYS. LATE THIS WEEK...A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL
DIG INTO THE PAC NW...SHUNTING THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD. THE
MONSOON PLUME LOOKS TO GET RE-ENERGIZED DURING THIS TIME BY SOME
TROPICAL MOISTURE...WITH THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM
OF THE PAC NW TROUGH HELPING TO ADVECT THIS MOISTURE OVER THE
PANHANDLES. THUS RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE ON THE INCREASE BY FRIDAY
INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA AROUND LABOR DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
EVENTUALLY PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ACTUAL TIMING WILL
OF COURSE DEPEND ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH...BUT
IF THE FRONT MAKES IT IN BEFORE THE MONSOON PLUME ERODES...IT COULD
GREATLY ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES. STILL A LONG WAYS OUT...BUT SOMETHING
TO WATCH OVER THE COMING DAYS.

KB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                92  65  91  67  92 /   5   5   5   5   5
BEAVER OK                  96  68  94  70  95 /   0   5   5  10   5
BOISE CITY OK              94  63  91  64  93 /  20  20  20  20  10
BORGER TX                  94  69  92  71  94 /   0   5   5   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              95  65  94  67  95 /   5  10  10  10  10
CANYON TX                  92  64  91  65  92 /   5   5   5   5   5
CLARENDON TX               93  65  91  67  92 /   0   5   5   5   5
DALHART TX                 95  64  93  66  94 /  10  20  10  20  10
GUYMON OK                  94  66  92  68  95 /   5  10  10  10  10
HEREFORD TX                92  64  91  65  92 /   5   5  10   5  10
LIPSCOMB TX                95  68  93  69  93 /   0   5   0   5   5
PAMPA TX                   92  67  91  68  92 /   0   5   5   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                95  67  93  69  93 /   0   5   0   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              96  67  94  69  94 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/8




000
FXUS64 KAMA 310914
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
414 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE STRETCHED FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING...FLANKED BY A
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH OVER SOUTH TX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE MONSOON MOISTURE
PLUME FOCUSED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NM INTO AZ...WITH A RATHER
DRY AIRMASS ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITHIN THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS. THIS WAS REFLECTED IN THE 0.69 INCH PWAT VALUE IN THE AMA
SOUNDING FROM LAST EVENING...WHICH IS ONE OF THE LOWER VALUES WE/VE
SEEN THIS SUMMER. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE MONSOON PLUME WILL BEGIN TO
ADVECT EASTWARD TODAY AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE AND THE UPPER RIDGE. THE
MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO CLIP THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THESE
AREAS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
CO/NORTHWEST NM...MAY AID THESE CHANCES. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER WARM LATE AUGUST DAY. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GET A LITTLE
BREEZY TODAY AS THE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS...WHICH COMBINED WITH WARMING
H85 TEMPS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE PATTERN DOESN/T CHANGE MUCH INTO
TUESDAY. WITH THE MONSOON PLUME STILL BENT OVER THE NORTHWEST
PANHANDLES...DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. BOTH
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT ALONG THE LLJ AXIS MAY HELP A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AGAIN BE A BIT
BREEZY ON TUESDAY AS THE LEE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH SIMILAR
TEMPS TO TODAY EXPECTED.

HAVE KEPT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE
MONSOON PLUME DRIES OUT A BIT DURING THIS TIME BENEATH THE UPPER
RIDGE. HOWEVER CERTAINLY CAN/T RULE OUT A STORM IN THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES THESE DAYS. LATE THIS WEEK...A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL
DIG INTO THE PAC NW...SHUNTING THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD. THE
MONSOON PLUME LOOKS TO GET RE-ENERGIZED DURING THIS TIME BY SOME
TROPICAL MOISTURE...WITH THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM
OF THE PAC NW TROUGH HELPING TO ADVECT THIS MOISTURE OVER THE
PANHANDLES. THUS RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE ON THE INCREASE BY FRIDAY
INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA AROUND LABOR DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
EVENTUALLY PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ACTUAL TIMING WILL
OF COURSE DEPEND ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH...BUT
IF THE FRONT MAKES IT IN BEFORE THE MONSOON PLUME ERODES...IT COULD
GREATLY ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES. STILL A LONG WAYS OUT...BUT SOMETHING
TO WATCH OVER THE COMING DAYS.

KB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                92  65  91  67  92 /   5   5   5   5   5
BEAVER OK                  96  68  94  70  95 /   0   5   5  10   5
BOISE CITY OK              94  63  91  64  93 /  20  20  20  20  10
BORGER TX                  94  69  92  71  94 /   0   5   5   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              95  65  94  67  95 /   5  10  10  10  10
CANYON TX                  92  64  91  65  92 /   5   5   5   5   5
CLARENDON TX               93  65  91  67  92 /   0   5   5   5   5
DALHART TX                 95  64  93  66  94 /  10  20  10  20  10
GUYMON OK                  94  66  92  68  95 /   5  10  10  10  10
HEREFORD TX                92  64  91  65  92 /   5   5  10   5  10
LIPSCOMB TX                95  68  93  69  93 /   0   5   0   5   5
PAMPA TX                   92  67  91  68  92 /   0   5   5   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                95  67  93  69  93 /   0   5   0   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              96  67  94  69  94 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/8





000
FXUS64 KAMA 310346 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1046 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
APART FROM OCCASIONAL MVFR VISIBILITIES IN HAZE...VFR FORECAST
CONTINUES FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE.  LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL TREND
FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT...AND THEN COMMENCE GUSTING
INTO THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE AROUND 15Z MONDAY.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
HAZE SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS EXPECTED
TO TEMPORARILY LOWER VISIBILITY TO 5 MILES OVERNIGHT.  OTHERWISE...CLEAR
SKY AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MID-MORNING
MONDAY.  DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROF TO LEE OF ROCKIES WILL
ALLOW SURFACE WINDS TO GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE BEGINNING LATE
MORNING MONDAY.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES EARLY THIS WEEK. THE UPPER
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA BY
TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD AFFECT THE
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLES BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PUSHES EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS BACK OVER THE
PANHANDLES AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

UPPER RIDGE THEN SHIFTS EAST AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES LATE THIS WEEK
AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT BASIN REGION AND
WESTERN STATES. BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WILL ALSO HELP TO
INITIATE CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OR WESTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE PANHANDLES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/06





000
FXUS64 KAMA 310346 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1046 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
APART FROM OCCASIONAL MVFR VISIBILITIES IN HAZE...VFR FORECAST
CONTINUES FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE.  LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL TREND
FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT...AND THEN COMMENCE GUSTING
INTO THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE AROUND 15Z MONDAY.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
HAZE SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS EXPECTED
TO TEMPORARILY LOWER VISIBILITY TO 5 MILES OVERNIGHT.  OTHERWISE...CLEAR
SKY AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MID-MORNING
MONDAY.  DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROF TO LEE OF ROCKIES WILL
ALLOW SURFACE WINDS TO GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE BEGINNING LATE
MORNING MONDAY.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES EARLY THIS WEEK. THE UPPER
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA BY
TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD AFFECT THE
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLES BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PUSHES EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS BACK OVER THE
PANHANDLES AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

UPPER RIDGE THEN SHIFTS EAST AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES LATE THIS WEEK
AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT BASIN REGION AND
WESTERN STATES. BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WILL ALSO HELP TO
INITIATE CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OR WESTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE PANHANDLES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/06




000
FXUS64 KAMA 310346 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1046 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
APART FROM OCCASIONAL MVFR VISIBILITIES IN HAZE...VFR FORECAST
CONTINUES FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE.  LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL TREND
FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT...AND THEN COMMENCE GUSTING
INTO THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE AROUND 15Z MONDAY.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
HAZE SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS EXPECTED
TO TEMPORARILY LOWER VISIBILITY TO 5 MILES OVERNIGHT.  OTHERWISE...CLEAR
SKY AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MID-MORNING
MONDAY.  DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROF TO LEE OF ROCKIES WILL
ALLOW SURFACE WINDS TO GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE BEGINNING LATE
MORNING MONDAY.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES EARLY THIS WEEK. THE UPPER
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA BY
TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD AFFECT THE
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLES BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PUSHES EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS BACK OVER THE
PANHANDLES AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

UPPER RIDGE THEN SHIFTS EAST AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES LATE THIS WEEK
AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT BASIN REGION AND
WESTERN STATES. BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WILL ALSO HELP TO
INITIATE CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OR WESTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE PANHANDLES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/06





000
FXUS64 KAMA 302319 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
619 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
HAZE SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS EXPECTED
TO TEMPORARILY LOWER VISIBILITY TO 5 MILES OVERNIGHT.  OTHERWISE...CLEAR
SKY AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MID-MORNING
MONDAY.  DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROF TO LEE OF ROCKIES WILL
ALLOW SURFACE WINDS TO GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE BEGINNING LATE
MORNING MONDAY.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES EARLY THIS WEEK. THE UPPER
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA BY
TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD AFFECT THE
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLES BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PUSHES EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS BACK OVER THE
PANHANDLES AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

UPPER RIDGE THEN SHIFTS EAST AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES LATE THIS WEEK
AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT BASIN REGION AND
WESTERN STATES. BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WILL ALSO HELP TO
INITIATE CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OR WESTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE PANHANDLES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                64  93  66  91  66 /   0   0   5   5   5
BEAVER OK                  61  97  69  96  69 /   0   0   5   5  10
BOISE CITY OK              62  95  64  93  64 /   5  10  20  20  10
BORGER TX                  66  96  70  95  70 /   0   0   5   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              63  96  66  94  67 /   0   5   5  10   5
CANYON TX                  62  94  65  91  65 /   0   5   5   5   5
CLARENDON TX               63  95  66  93  66 /   0   0   5   5   5
DALHART TX                 62  95  66  95  66 /   5  10  20  10   5
GUYMON OK                  62  96  67  95  67 /   5   5  10  10   5
HEREFORD TX                62  93  64  92  65 /   0   5   5  10   5
LIPSCOMB TX                63  97  69  95  69 /   0   0   5   5  10
PAMPA TX                   64  93  68  91  68 /   0   0   5   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                64  96  68  94  68 /   0   0   5   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              65  97  68  95  69 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

3/6





000
FXUS64 KAMA 302319 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
619 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
HAZE SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS EXPECTED
TO TEMPORARILY LOWER VISIBILITY TO 5 MILES OVERNIGHT.  OTHERWISE...CLEAR
SKY AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MID-MORNING
MONDAY.  DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROF TO LEE OF ROCKIES WILL
ALLOW SURFACE WINDS TO GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE BEGINNING LATE
MORNING MONDAY.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES EARLY THIS WEEK. THE UPPER
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA BY
TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD AFFECT THE
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLES BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PUSHES EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS BACK OVER THE
PANHANDLES AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

UPPER RIDGE THEN SHIFTS EAST AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES LATE THIS WEEK
AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT BASIN REGION AND
WESTERN STATES. BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WILL ALSO HELP TO
INITIATE CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OR WESTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE PANHANDLES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                64  93  66  91  66 /   0   0   5   5   5
BEAVER OK                  61  97  69  96  69 /   0   0   5   5  10
BOISE CITY OK              62  95  64  93  64 /   5  10  20  20  10
BORGER TX                  66  96  70  95  70 /   0   0   5   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              63  96  66  94  67 /   0   5   5  10   5
CANYON TX                  62  94  65  91  65 /   0   5   5   5   5
CLARENDON TX               63  95  66  93  66 /   0   0   5   5   5
DALHART TX                 62  95  66  95  66 /   5  10  20  10   5
GUYMON OK                  62  96  67  95  67 /   5   5  10  10   5
HEREFORD TX                62  93  64  92  65 /   0   5   5  10   5
LIPSCOMB TX                63  97  69  95  69 /   0   0   5   5  10
PAMPA TX                   64  93  68  91  68 /   0   0   5   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                64  96  68  94  68 /   0   0   5   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              65  97  68  95  69 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

3/6




000
FXUS64 KAMA 302319 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
619 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
HAZE SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS EXPECTED
TO TEMPORARILY LOWER VISIBILITY TO 5 MILES OVERNIGHT.  OTHERWISE...CLEAR
SKY AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MID-MORNING
MONDAY.  DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROF TO LEE OF ROCKIES WILL
ALLOW SURFACE WINDS TO GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE BEGINNING LATE
MORNING MONDAY.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES EARLY THIS WEEK. THE UPPER
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA BY
TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD AFFECT THE
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLES BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PUSHES EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS BACK OVER THE
PANHANDLES AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

UPPER RIDGE THEN SHIFTS EAST AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES LATE THIS WEEK
AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT BASIN REGION AND
WESTERN STATES. BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WILL ALSO HELP TO
INITIATE CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OR WESTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE PANHANDLES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                64  93  66  91  66 /   0   0   5   5   5
BEAVER OK                  61  97  69  96  69 /   0   0   5   5  10
BOISE CITY OK              62  95  64  93  64 /   5  10  20  20  10
BORGER TX                  66  96  70  95  70 /   0   0   5   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              63  96  66  94  67 /   0   5   5  10   5
CANYON TX                  62  94  65  91  65 /   0   5   5   5   5
CLARENDON TX               63  95  66  93  66 /   0   0   5   5   5
DALHART TX                 62  95  66  95  66 /   5  10  20  10   5
GUYMON OK                  62  96  67  95  67 /   5   5  10  10   5
HEREFORD TX                62  93  64  92  65 /   0   5   5  10   5
LIPSCOMB TX                63  97  69  95  69 /   0   0   5   5  10
PAMPA TX                   64  93  68  91  68 /   0   0   5   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                64  96  68  94  68 /   0   0   5   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              65  97  68  95  69 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

3/6





000
FXUS64 KAMA 302035
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
335 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES EARLY THIS WEEK. THE UPPER
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA BY
TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD AFFECT THE
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLES BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PUSHES EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS BACK OVER THE
PANHANDLES AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

UPPER RIDGE THEN SHIFTS EAST AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES LATE THIS WEEK
AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT BASIN REGION AND
WESTERN STATES. BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WILL ALSO HELP TO
INITIATE CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OR WESTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE PANHANDLES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                64  93  66  91  66 /   0   0   5   5   5
BEAVER OK                  61  97  69  96  69 /   0   0   5   5  10
BOISE CITY OK              62  95  64  93  64 /   5  10  20  20  10
BORGER TX                  66  96  70  95  70 /   0   0   5   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              63  96  66  94  67 /   0   5   5  10   5
CANYON TX                  62  94  65  91  65 /   0   5   5   5   5
CLARENDON TX               63  95  66  93  66 /   0   0   5   5   5
DALHART TX                 62  95  66  95  66 /   5  10  20  10   5
GUYMON OK                  62  96  67  95  67 /   5   5  10  10   5
HEREFORD TX                62  93  64  92  65 /   0   5   5  10   5
LIPSCOMB TX                63  97  69  95  69 /   0   0   5   5  10
PAMPA TX                   64  93  68  91  68 /   0   0   5   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                64  96  68  94  68 /   0   0   5   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              65  97  68  95  69 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/11




000
FXUS64 KAMA 302035
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
335 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES EARLY THIS WEEK. THE UPPER
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA BY
TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD AFFECT THE
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLES BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PUSHES EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS BACK OVER THE
PANHANDLES AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

UPPER RIDGE THEN SHIFTS EAST AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES LATE THIS WEEK
AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT BASIN REGION AND
WESTERN STATES. BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WILL ALSO HELP TO
INITIATE CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OR WESTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE PANHANDLES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                64  93  66  91  66 /   0   0   5   5   5
BEAVER OK                  61  97  69  96  69 /   0   0   5   5  10
BOISE CITY OK              62  95  64  93  64 /   5  10  20  20  10
BORGER TX                  66  96  70  95  70 /   0   0   5   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              63  96  66  94  67 /   0   5   5  10   5
CANYON TX                  62  94  65  91  65 /   0   5   5   5   5
CLARENDON TX               63  95  66  93  66 /   0   0   5   5   5
DALHART TX                 62  95  66  95  66 /   5  10  20  10   5
GUYMON OK                  62  96  67  95  67 /   5   5  10  10   5
HEREFORD TX                62  93  64  92  65 /   0   5   5  10   5
LIPSCOMB TX                63  97  69  95  69 /   0   0   5   5  10
PAMPA TX                   64  93  68  91  68 /   0   0   5   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                64  96  68  94  68 /   0   0   5   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              65  97  68  95  69 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/11





000
FXUS64 KAMA 302035
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
335 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES EARLY THIS WEEK. THE UPPER
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA BY
TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD AFFECT THE
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLES BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PUSHES EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS BACK OVER THE
PANHANDLES AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

UPPER RIDGE THEN SHIFTS EAST AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES LATE THIS WEEK
AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT BASIN REGION AND
WESTERN STATES. BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WILL ALSO HELP TO
INITIATE CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OR WESTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE PANHANDLES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                64  93  66  91  66 /   0   0   5   5   5
BEAVER OK                  61  97  69  96  69 /   0   0   5   5  10
BOISE CITY OK              62  95  64  93  64 /   5  10  20  20  10
BORGER TX                  66  96  70  95  70 /   0   0   5   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              63  96  66  94  67 /   0   5   5  10   5
CANYON TX                  62  94  65  91  65 /   0   5   5   5   5
CLARENDON TX               63  95  66  93  66 /   0   0   5   5   5
DALHART TX                 62  95  66  95  66 /   5  10  20  10   5
GUYMON OK                  62  96  67  95  67 /   5   5  10  10   5
HEREFORD TX                62  93  64  92  65 /   0   5   5  10   5
LIPSCOMB TX                63  97  69  95  69 /   0   0   5   5  10
PAMPA TX                   64  93  68  91  68 /   0   0   5   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                64  96  68  94  68 /   0   0   5   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              65  97  68  95  69 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/11




000
FXUS64 KAMA 302035
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
335 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES EARLY THIS WEEK. THE UPPER
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA BY
TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD AFFECT THE
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLES BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PUSHES EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS BACK OVER THE
PANHANDLES AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

UPPER RIDGE THEN SHIFTS EAST AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES LATE THIS WEEK
AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT BASIN REGION AND
WESTERN STATES. BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WILL ALSO HELP TO
INITIATE CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OR WESTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE PANHANDLES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                64  93  66  91  66 /   0   0   5   5   5
BEAVER OK                  61  97  69  96  69 /   0   0   5   5  10
BOISE CITY OK              62  95  64  93  64 /   5  10  20  20  10
BORGER TX                  66  96  70  95  70 /   0   0   5   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              63  96  66  94  67 /   0   5   5  10   5
CANYON TX                  62  94  65  91  65 /   0   5   5   5   5
CLARENDON TX               63  95  66  93  66 /   0   0   5   5   5
DALHART TX                 62  95  66  95  66 /   5  10  20  10   5
GUYMON OK                  62  96  67  95  67 /   5   5  10  10   5
HEREFORD TX                62  93  64  92  65 /   0   5   5  10   5
LIPSCOMB TX                63  97  69  95  69 /   0   0   5   5  10
PAMPA TX                   64  93  68  91  68 /   0   0   5   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                64  96  68  94  68 /   0   0   5   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              65  97  68  95  69 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/11





000
FXUS64 KAMA 301655
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1155 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF CYCLE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
VARY BETWEEN SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST WHILE REMAINING AT OR BELOW
10KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA SHOULD SLIDE OFF TO EAST
THIS MORNING. AM CONCERNED THAT SOME FOG MAY FORM IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS RIDGE AXIS...ESPECIALLY AS WINDS TURN MORE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND ADVECT IN HIGHER DEW POINTS. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO
THE FORECAST IN THE NORTHEAST FOR NOW. BUT THIS AREA WILL BE WATCHED
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ALONG THE LEE-SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG WITH WARMING 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE GREAT LAKES
WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST TODAY.
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE MAY GET KNOCKED DOWN JUST ENOUGH TO
ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE FORECAST THEN GOES DRY AGAIN AS THE RIDGE HOLDS STRONG WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AGAIN BY
FRIDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW ADDED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH A FEW
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO PASS OVER. SO...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/11




000
FXUS64 KAMA 301655
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1155 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF CYCLE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
VARY BETWEEN SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST WHILE REMAINING AT OR BELOW
10KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA SHOULD SLIDE OFF TO EAST
THIS MORNING. AM CONCERNED THAT SOME FOG MAY FORM IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS RIDGE AXIS...ESPECIALLY AS WINDS TURN MORE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND ADVECT IN HIGHER DEW POINTS. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO
THE FORECAST IN THE NORTHEAST FOR NOW. BUT THIS AREA WILL BE WATCHED
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ALONG THE LEE-SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG WITH WARMING 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE GREAT LAKES
WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST TODAY.
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE MAY GET KNOCKED DOWN JUST ENOUGH TO
ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE FORECAST THEN GOES DRY AGAIN AS THE RIDGE HOLDS STRONG WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AGAIN BY
FRIDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW ADDED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH A FEW
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO PASS OVER. SO...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/11





000
FXUS64 KAMA 301045
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
545 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION... /FOR THE 12Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NEARLY CALM
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AND EVENTUALLY BECOME
SOUTHERLY...FIRST AT KGUY AND KDHT AND LATER AT KAMA.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA SHOULD SLIDE OFF TO EAST
THIS MORNING. AM CONCERNED THAT SOME FOG MAY FORM IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS RIDGE AXIS...ESPECIALLY AS WINDS TURN MORE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND ADVECT IN HIGHER DEW POINTS. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO
THE FORECAST IN THE NORTHEAST FOR NOW. BUT THIS AREA WILL BE WATCHED
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ALONG THE LEE-SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG WITH WARMING 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE GREAT LAKES
WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST TODAY.
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE MAY GET KNOCKED DOWN JUST ENOUGH TO
ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE FORECAST THEN GOES DRY AGAIN AS THE RIDGE HOLDS STRONG WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AGAIN BY
FRIDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW ADDED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH A FEW
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO PASS OVER. SO...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/15





000
FXUS64 KAMA 301045
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
545 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION... /FOR THE 12Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NEARLY CALM
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AND EVENTUALLY BECOME
SOUTHERLY...FIRST AT KGUY AND KDHT AND LATER AT KAMA.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA SHOULD SLIDE OFF TO EAST
THIS MORNING. AM CONCERNED THAT SOME FOG MAY FORM IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS RIDGE AXIS...ESPECIALLY AS WINDS TURN MORE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND ADVECT IN HIGHER DEW POINTS. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO
THE FORECAST IN THE NORTHEAST FOR NOW. BUT THIS AREA WILL BE WATCHED
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ALONG THE LEE-SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG WITH WARMING 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE GREAT LAKES
WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST TODAY.
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE MAY GET KNOCKED DOWN JUST ENOUGH TO
ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE FORECAST THEN GOES DRY AGAIN AS THE RIDGE HOLDS STRONG WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AGAIN BY
FRIDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW ADDED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH A FEW
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO PASS OVER. SO...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/15





000
FXUS64 KAMA 301045
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
545 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION... /FOR THE 12Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NEARLY CALM
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AND EVENTUALLY BECOME
SOUTHERLY...FIRST AT KGUY AND KDHT AND LATER AT KAMA.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA SHOULD SLIDE OFF TO EAST
THIS MORNING. AM CONCERNED THAT SOME FOG MAY FORM IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS RIDGE AXIS...ESPECIALLY AS WINDS TURN MORE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND ADVECT IN HIGHER DEW POINTS. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO
THE FORECAST IN THE NORTHEAST FOR NOW. BUT THIS AREA WILL BE WATCHED
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ALONG THE LEE-SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG WITH WARMING 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE GREAT LAKES
WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST TODAY.
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE MAY GET KNOCKED DOWN JUST ENOUGH TO
ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE FORECAST THEN GOES DRY AGAIN AS THE RIDGE HOLDS STRONG WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AGAIN BY
FRIDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW ADDED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH A FEW
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO PASS OVER. SO...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/15




000
FXUS64 KAMA 300753
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
253 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA SHOULD SLIDE OFF TO EAST
THIS MORNING. AM CONCERNED THAT SOME FOG MAY FORM IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS RIDGE AXIS...ESPECIALLY AS WINDS TURN MORE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND ADVECT IN HIGHER DEW POINTS. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO
THE FORECAST IN THE NORTHEAST FOR NOW. BUT THIS AREA WILL BE WATCHED
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ALONG THE LEE-SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG WITH WARMING 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE GREAT LAKES
WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST TODAY.
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE MAY GET KNOCKED DOWN JUST ENOUGH TO
ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE FORECAST THEN GOES DRY AGAIN AS THE RIDGE HOLDS STRONG WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AGAIN BY
FRIDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW ADDED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH A FEW
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO PASS OVER. SO...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                91  64  93  66  90 /   5   0   5   5   5
BEAVER OK                  92  63  97  69  95 /   5   0   5  10  10
BOISE CITY OK              92  62  95  64  91 /   0   5  20  20  20
BORGER TX                  93  67  96  70  93 /   5   0   5   5  10
BOYS RANCH TX              93  65  96  66  93 /   5   0   5  10  10
CANYON TX                  91  63  94  65  91 /   5   0   5   5   5
CLARENDON TX               91  64  95  66  92 /   5   0   0   5   0
DALHART TX                 93  62  95  66  93 /   0   5  10  20  20
GUYMON OK                  93  63  96  67  93 /   5   5   5  10  10
HEREFORD TX                91  64  93  64  91 /   5   0   5  10  10
LIPSCOMB TX                92  64  97  69  94 /   5   0   5   5   5
PAMPA TX                   90  65  93  68  92 /   5   0   5   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                92  65  96  68  94 /   5   0   0   5   0
WELLINGTON TX              93  66  96  68  95 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/15




000
FXUS64 KAMA 300753
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
253 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA SHOULD SLIDE OFF TO EAST
THIS MORNING. AM CONCERNED THAT SOME FOG MAY FORM IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS RIDGE AXIS...ESPECIALLY AS WINDS TURN MORE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND ADVECT IN HIGHER DEW POINTS. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO
THE FORECAST IN THE NORTHEAST FOR NOW. BUT THIS AREA WILL BE WATCHED
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ALONG THE LEE-SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG WITH WARMING 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE GREAT LAKES
WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST TODAY.
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE MAY GET KNOCKED DOWN JUST ENOUGH TO
ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE FORECAST THEN GOES DRY AGAIN AS THE RIDGE HOLDS STRONG WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AGAIN BY
FRIDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW ADDED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH A FEW
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO PASS OVER. SO...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                91  64  93  66  90 /   5   0   5   5   5
BEAVER OK                  92  63  97  69  95 /   5   0   5  10  10
BOISE CITY OK              92  62  95  64  91 /   0   5  20  20  20
BORGER TX                  93  67  96  70  93 /   5   0   5   5  10
BOYS RANCH TX              93  65  96  66  93 /   5   0   5  10  10
CANYON TX                  91  63  94  65  91 /   5   0   5   5   5
CLARENDON TX               91  64  95  66  92 /   5   0   0   5   0
DALHART TX                 93  62  95  66  93 /   0   5  10  20  20
GUYMON OK                  93  63  96  67  93 /   5   5   5  10  10
HEREFORD TX                91  64  93  64  91 /   5   0   5  10  10
LIPSCOMB TX                92  64  97  69  94 /   5   0   5   5   5
PAMPA TX                   90  65  93  68  92 /   5   0   5   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                92  65  96  68  94 /   5   0   0   5   0
WELLINGTON TX              93  66  96  68  95 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/15





000
FXUS64 KAMA 300336 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1036 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS...CLEAR SKY...AND NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.  SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KT RESUME
AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY.  HIGH-BASED CUMULUS EXPECTED IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATING QUICKLY WITH NO THREAT TO ANY OF
THE TERMINALS.  LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL TREND FROM EAST TO
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.  BY 18Z SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT.  GENERALLY CLEAR SKY EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FORESEEN.  LATE AFTERNOON
HIGH-BASED CUMULUS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT
24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WEST
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF TEXAS. A FEW CONVECTION DEVELOPED OVER THE FAR
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...HOWEVER FEEL THAT THESE
WILL NOT LAST PAST 00Z SUNDAY OR WILL MOVE WEST AND SOUTH INTO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS. DECIDED TO LEAVE POPS
OUT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM MORE
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FORCED EASTWARD AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
WITH POSSIBLY ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES
TUESDAY.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS WEST
TEXAS AND THE PANHANDLES. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
PANHANDLES BY THE END OF THE WEEK USHERING IN A COLD FRONT IN TIME
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CONVECTION CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/06




000
FXUS64 KAMA 300336 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1036 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS...CLEAR SKY...AND NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.  SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KT RESUME
AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY.  HIGH-BASED CUMULUS EXPECTED IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATING QUICKLY WITH NO THREAT TO ANY OF
THE TERMINALS.  LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL TREND FROM EAST TO
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.  BY 18Z SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT.  GENERALLY CLEAR SKY EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FORESEEN.  LATE AFTERNOON
HIGH-BASED CUMULUS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT
24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WEST
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF TEXAS. A FEW CONVECTION DEVELOPED OVER THE FAR
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...HOWEVER FEEL THAT THESE
WILL NOT LAST PAST 00Z SUNDAY OR WILL MOVE WEST AND SOUTH INTO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS. DECIDED TO LEAVE POPS
OUT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM MORE
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FORCED EASTWARD AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
WITH POSSIBLY ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES
TUESDAY.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS WEST
TEXAS AND THE PANHANDLES. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
PANHANDLES BY THE END OF THE WEEK USHERING IN A COLD FRONT IN TIME
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CONVECTION CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/06





000
FXUS64 KAMA 300336 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1036 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS...CLEAR SKY...AND NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.  SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KT RESUME
AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY.  HIGH-BASED CUMULUS EXPECTED IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATING QUICKLY WITH NO THREAT TO ANY OF
THE TERMINALS.  LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL TREND FROM EAST TO
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.  BY 18Z SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT.  GENERALLY CLEAR SKY EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FORESEEN.  LATE AFTERNOON
HIGH-BASED CUMULUS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT
24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WEST
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF TEXAS. A FEW CONVECTION DEVELOPED OVER THE FAR
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...HOWEVER FEEL THAT THESE
WILL NOT LAST PAST 00Z SUNDAY OR WILL MOVE WEST AND SOUTH INTO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS. DECIDED TO LEAVE POPS
OUT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM MORE
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FORCED EASTWARD AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
WITH POSSIBLY ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES
TUESDAY.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS WEST
TEXAS AND THE PANHANDLES. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
PANHANDLES BY THE END OF THE WEEK USHERING IN A COLD FRONT IN TIME
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CONVECTION CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/06




000
FXUS64 KAMA 300336 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1036 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS...CLEAR SKY...AND NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.  SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KT RESUME
AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY.  HIGH-BASED CUMULUS EXPECTED IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATING QUICKLY WITH NO THREAT TO ANY OF
THE TERMINALS.  LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL TREND FROM EAST TO
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.  BY 18Z SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT.  GENERALLY CLEAR SKY EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FORESEEN.  LATE AFTERNOON
HIGH-BASED CUMULUS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT
24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WEST
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF TEXAS. A FEW CONVECTION DEVELOPED OVER THE FAR
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...HOWEVER FEEL THAT THESE
WILL NOT LAST PAST 00Z SUNDAY OR WILL MOVE WEST AND SOUTH INTO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS. DECIDED TO LEAVE POPS
OUT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM MORE
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FORCED EASTWARD AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
WITH POSSIBLY ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES
TUESDAY.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS WEST
TEXAS AND THE PANHANDLES. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
PANHANDLES BY THE END OF THE WEEK USHERING IN A COLD FRONT IN TIME
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CONVECTION CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/06





000
FXUS64 KAMA 292331 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
631 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATING QUICKLY WITH NO THREAT TO ANY OF
THE TERMINALS.  LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL TREND FROM EAST TO
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.  BY 18Z SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT.  GENERALLY CLEAR SKY EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FORESEEN.  LATE AFTERNOON
HIGH-BASED CUMULUS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT
24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WEST
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF TEXAS. A FEW CONVECTION DEVELOPED OVER THE FAR
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...HOWEVER FEEL THAT THESE
WILL NOT LAST PAST 00Z SUNDAY OR WILL MOVE WEST AND SOUTH INTO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS. DECIDED TO LEAVE POPS
OUT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM MORE
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FORCED EASTWARD AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
WITH POSSIBLY ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES
TUESDAY.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS WEST
TEXAS AND THE PANHANDLES. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
PANHANDLES BY THE END OF THE WEEK USHERING IN A COLD FRONT IN TIME
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CONVECTION CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                62  92  64  95  66 /   5   5   0   5   5
BEAVER OK                  61  94  64  98  70 /   5   5   0   5  10
BOISE CITY OK              60  93  63  95  63 /   5   0   5  20  20
BORGER TX                  64  94  68  97  70 /   5   5   0   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              61  94  65  96  66 /   5   5   0   5  10
CANYON TX                  62  92  63  96  64 /   5   5   0   5   5
CLARENDON TX               64  92  64  96  67 /   5   5   0   0   5
DALHART TX                 60  93  63  95  66 /   5   0   5  10  20
GUYMON OK                  61  94  64  97  67 /   5   5   5   5  10
HEREFORD TX                62  91  65  94  64 /  10   5   0   5  10
LIPSCOMB TX                61  93  65  98  70 /   5   5   0   5   5
PAMPA TX                   63  90  65  94  68 /   5   5   0   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                63  92  65  97  68 /   5   5   0   0   5
WELLINGTON TX              64  94  66  97  68 /   5   0   0   0   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/06




000
FXUS64 KAMA 292331 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
631 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATING QUICKLY WITH NO THREAT TO ANY OF
THE TERMINALS.  LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL TREND FROM EAST TO
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.  BY 18Z SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT.  GENERALLY CLEAR SKY EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FORESEEN.  LATE AFTERNOON
HIGH-BASED CUMULUS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT
24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WEST
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF TEXAS. A FEW CONVECTION DEVELOPED OVER THE FAR
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...HOWEVER FEEL THAT THESE
WILL NOT LAST PAST 00Z SUNDAY OR WILL MOVE WEST AND SOUTH INTO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS. DECIDED TO LEAVE POPS
OUT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM MORE
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FORCED EASTWARD AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
WITH POSSIBLY ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES
TUESDAY.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS WEST
TEXAS AND THE PANHANDLES. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
PANHANDLES BY THE END OF THE WEEK USHERING IN A COLD FRONT IN TIME
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CONVECTION CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                62  92  64  95  66 /   5   5   0   5   5
BEAVER OK                  61  94  64  98  70 /   5   5   0   5  10
BOISE CITY OK              60  93  63  95  63 /   5   0   5  20  20
BORGER TX                  64  94  68  97  70 /   5   5   0   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              61  94  65  96  66 /   5   5   0   5  10
CANYON TX                  62  92  63  96  64 /   5   5   0   5   5
CLARENDON TX               64  92  64  96  67 /   5   5   0   0   5
DALHART TX                 60  93  63  95  66 /   5   0   5  10  20
GUYMON OK                  61  94  64  97  67 /   5   5   5   5  10
HEREFORD TX                62  91  65  94  64 /  10   5   0   5  10
LIPSCOMB TX                61  93  65  98  70 /   5   5   0   5   5
PAMPA TX                   63  90  65  94  68 /   5   5   0   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                63  92  65  97  68 /   5   5   0   0   5
WELLINGTON TX              64  94  66  97  68 /   5   0   0   0   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/06





000
FXUS64 KAMA 292331 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
631 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATING QUICKLY WITH NO THREAT TO ANY OF
THE TERMINALS.  LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL TREND FROM EAST TO
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.  BY 18Z SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT.  GENERALLY CLEAR SKY EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FORESEEN.  LATE AFTERNOON
HIGH-BASED CUMULUS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT
24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WEST
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF TEXAS. A FEW CONVECTION DEVELOPED OVER THE FAR
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...HOWEVER FEEL THAT THESE
WILL NOT LAST PAST 00Z SUNDAY OR WILL MOVE WEST AND SOUTH INTO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS. DECIDED TO LEAVE POPS
OUT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM MORE
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FORCED EASTWARD AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
WITH POSSIBLY ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES
TUESDAY.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS WEST
TEXAS AND THE PANHANDLES. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
PANHANDLES BY THE END OF THE WEEK USHERING IN A COLD FRONT IN TIME
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CONVECTION CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                62  92  64  95  66 /   5   5   0   5   5
BEAVER OK                  61  94  64  98  70 /   5   5   0   5  10
BOISE CITY OK              60  93  63  95  63 /   5   0   5  20  20
BORGER TX                  64  94  68  97  70 /   5   5   0   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              61  94  65  96  66 /   5   5   0   5  10
CANYON TX                  62  92  63  96  64 /   5   5   0   5   5
CLARENDON TX               64  92  64  96  67 /   5   5   0   0   5
DALHART TX                 60  93  63  95  66 /   5   0   5  10  20
GUYMON OK                  61  94  64  97  67 /   5   5   5   5  10
HEREFORD TX                62  91  65  94  64 /  10   5   0   5  10
LIPSCOMB TX                61  93  65  98  70 /   5   5   0   5   5
PAMPA TX                   63  90  65  94  68 /   5   5   0   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                63  92  65  97  68 /   5   5   0   0   5
WELLINGTON TX              64  94  66  97  68 /   5   0   0   0   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/06





000
FXUS64 KAMA 292033
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
333 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WEST
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF TEXAS. A FEW CONVECTION DEVELOPED OVER THE FAR
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...HOWEVER FEEL THAT THESE
WILL NOT LAST PAST 00Z SUNDAY OR WILL MOVE WEST AND SOUTH INTO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS. DECIDED TO LEAVE POPS
OUT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM MORE
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FORCED EASTWARD AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
WITH POSSIBLY ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES
TUESDAY.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS WEST
TEXAS AND THE PANHANDLES. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
PANHANDLES BY THE END OF THE WEEK USHERING IN A COLD FRONT IN TIME
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CONVECTION CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                62  92  64  95  66 /   5   5   0   5   5
BEAVER OK                  61  94  64  98  70 /   5   5   0   5  10
BOISE CITY OK              60  93  63  95  63 /   5   0   5  20  20
BORGER TX                  64  94  68  97  70 /   5   5   0   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              61  94  65  96  66 /   5   5   0   5  10
CANYON TX                  62  92  63  96  64 /   5   5   0   5   5
CLARENDON TX               64  92  64  96  67 /   5   5   0   0   5
DALHART TX                 60  93  63  95  66 /   5   0   5  10  20
GUYMON OK                  61  94  64  97  67 /   5   5   5   5  10
HEREFORD TX                62  91  65  94  64 /  10   5   0   5  10
LIPSCOMB TX                61  93  65  98  70 /   5   5   0   5   5
PAMPA TX                   63  90  65  94  68 /   5   5   0   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                63  92  65  97  68 /   5   5   0   0   5
WELLINGTON TX              64  94  66  97  68 /   5   0   0   0   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/11




000
FXUS64 KAMA 292033
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
333 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WEST
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF TEXAS. A FEW CONVECTION DEVELOPED OVER THE FAR
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...HOWEVER FEEL THAT THESE
WILL NOT LAST PAST 00Z SUNDAY OR WILL MOVE WEST AND SOUTH INTO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS. DECIDED TO LEAVE POPS
OUT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM MORE
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FORCED EASTWARD AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
WITH POSSIBLY ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES
TUESDAY.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS WEST
TEXAS AND THE PANHANDLES. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
PANHANDLES BY THE END OF THE WEEK USHERING IN A COLD FRONT IN TIME
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CONVECTION CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                62  92  64  95  66 /   5   5   0   5   5
BEAVER OK                  61  94  64  98  70 /   5   5   0   5  10
BOISE CITY OK              60  93  63  95  63 /   5   0   5  20  20
BORGER TX                  64  94  68  97  70 /   5   5   0   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              61  94  65  96  66 /   5   5   0   5  10
CANYON TX                  62  92  63  96  64 /   5   5   0   5   5
CLARENDON TX               64  92  64  96  67 /   5   5   0   0   5
DALHART TX                 60  93  63  95  66 /   5   0   5  10  20
GUYMON OK                  61  94  64  97  67 /   5   5   5   5  10
HEREFORD TX                62  91  65  94  64 /  10   5   0   5  10
LIPSCOMB TX                61  93  65  98  70 /   5   5   0   5   5
PAMPA TX                   63  90  65  94  68 /   5   5   0   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                63  92  65  97  68 /   5   5   0   0   5
WELLINGTON TX              64  94  66  97  68 /   5   0   0   0   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/11





000
FXUS64 KAMA 291907
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
207 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE INSERTED MENTION OF ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OVER THE PAST HOUR HAVE SEEN A
WIDE EXPANSION OF CU FIELD IN THIS AREA IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STEERING FLOW AND THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD
LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF TIME THESE STORMS ARE ABLE TO RESIDE OVER THE
PANHANDLE. SHORT RANGE MODELS THAT LATCHED ONTO THE POTENTIAL FOR
THESE STORMS TO DEVELOP ADVERTISE THE SAME SCENARIO. OTHERWISE NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1147 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT
ALL TERMINALS. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND THE DIAL
BEFORE SETTLING FROM A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION BY LATE MORNING
TOMORROW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SWEEP SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REST OF THE PANHANDLES THIS
MORNING. NOT MUCH FAN FAIR WITH THIS FRONT OTHER THAN LIGHT
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TODAY.

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY
AND SUNDAY.  THE RIDGE THEN STRETCHES OUT FROM SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY. WILL KEEP THE MAIN CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVE ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.
ONE COULD ARGUE TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS GOING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS WELL..BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL BE PRETTY ISOLATED...SO WILL
HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND MAYBE WE CAN PINPOINT A LOCATION BETTER AS WE
GET CLOSER.

WILL ADD SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES FOR FRIDAY AS A LITTLE STRONGER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE RIDGE.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/11




000
FXUS64 KAMA 291907
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
207 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE INSERTED MENTION OF ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OVER THE PAST HOUR HAVE SEEN A
WIDE EXPANSION OF CU FIELD IN THIS AREA IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STEERING FLOW AND THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD
LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF TIME THESE STORMS ARE ABLE TO RESIDE OVER THE
PANHANDLE. SHORT RANGE MODELS THAT LATCHED ONTO THE POTENTIAL FOR
THESE STORMS TO DEVELOP ADVERTISE THE SAME SCENARIO. OTHERWISE NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1147 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT
ALL TERMINALS. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND THE DIAL
BEFORE SETTLING FROM A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION BY LATE MORNING
TOMORROW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SWEEP SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REST OF THE PANHANDLES THIS
MORNING. NOT MUCH FAN FAIR WITH THIS FRONT OTHER THAN LIGHT
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TODAY.

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY
AND SUNDAY.  THE RIDGE THEN STRETCHES OUT FROM SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY. WILL KEEP THE MAIN CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVE ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.
ONE COULD ARGUE TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS GOING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS WELL..BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL BE PRETTY ISOLATED...SO WILL
HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND MAYBE WE CAN PINPOINT A LOCATION BETTER AS WE
GET CLOSER.

WILL ADD SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES FOR FRIDAY AS A LITTLE STRONGER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE RIDGE.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/11





000
FXUS64 KAMA 291647
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1147 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT
ALL TERMINALS. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND THE DIAL
BEFORE SETTLING FROM A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION BY LATE MORNING
TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SWEEP SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REST OF THE PANHANDLES THIS
MORNING. NOT MUCH FAN FAIR WITH THIS FRONT OTHER THAN LIGHT
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TODAY.

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY
AND SUNDAY.  THE RIDGE THEN STRETCHES OUT FROM SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY. WILL KEEP THE MAIN CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVE ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.
ONE COULD ARGUE TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS GOING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS WELL..BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL BE PRETTY ISOLATED...SO WILL
HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND MAYBE WE CAN PINPOINT A LOCATION BETTER AS WE
GET CLOSER.

WILL ADD SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES FOR FRIDAY AS A LITTLE STRONGER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE RIDGE.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/11





000
FXUS64 KAMA 291647
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1147 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT
ALL TERMINALS. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND THE DIAL
BEFORE SETTLING FROM A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION BY LATE MORNING
TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SWEEP SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REST OF THE PANHANDLES THIS
MORNING. NOT MUCH FAN FAIR WITH THIS FRONT OTHER THAN LIGHT
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TODAY.

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY
AND SUNDAY.  THE RIDGE THEN STRETCHES OUT FROM SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY. WILL KEEP THE MAIN CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVE ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.
ONE COULD ARGUE TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS GOING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS WELL..BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL BE PRETTY ISOLATED...SO WILL
HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND MAYBE WE CAN PINPOINT A LOCATION BETTER AS WE
GET CLOSER.

WILL ADD SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES FOR FRIDAY AS A LITTLE STRONGER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE RIDGE.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/11




000
FXUS64 KAMA 291647
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1147 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT
ALL TERMINALS. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND THE DIAL
BEFORE SETTLING FROM A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION BY LATE MORNING
TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SWEEP SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REST OF THE PANHANDLES THIS
MORNING. NOT MUCH FAN FAIR WITH THIS FRONT OTHER THAN LIGHT
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TODAY.

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY
AND SUNDAY.  THE RIDGE THEN STRETCHES OUT FROM SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY. WILL KEEP THE MAIN CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVE ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.
ONE COULD ARGUE TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS GOING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS WELL..BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL BE PRETTY ISOLATED...SO WILL
HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND MAYBE WE CAN PINPOINT A LOCATION BETTER AS WE
GET CLOSER.

WILL ADD SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES FOR FRIDAY AS A LITTLE STRONGER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE RIDGE.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/11





000
FXUS64 KAMA 291647
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1147 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT
ALL TERMINALS. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND THE DIAL
BEFORE SETTLING FROM A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION BY LATE MORNING
TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SWEEP SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REST OF THE PANHANDLES THIS
MORNING. NOT MUCH FAN FAIR WITH THIS FRONT OTHER THAN LIGHT
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TODAY.

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY
AND SUNDAY.  THE RIDGE THEN STRETCHES OUT FROM SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY. WILL KEEP THE MAIN CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVE ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.
ONE COULD ARGUE TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS GOING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS WELL..BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL BE PRETTY ISOLATED...SO WILL
HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND MAYBE WE CAN PINPOINT A LOCATION BETTER AS WE
GET CLOSER.

WILL ADD SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES FOR FRIDAY AS A LITTLE STRONGER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE RIDGE.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/11




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