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000
FXUS64 KAMA 250344 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1044 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY EVENING.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RATHER BENIGN AUTUMN WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

A PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER AIR RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE OVER WEST TEXAS
THROUGH SATURDAY...PROMOTING UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES SOME
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DEEPEN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...AS THE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
THIS WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY OF NOTABLY WARM CONDITIONS.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO INCREASE MSLP/HEIGHT GRADIENTS
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...BOTH IN
THE FORM OF DOWNSLOPE PRE-FRONTAL WINDS DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND
ALSO IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT MONDAY EVENING. MODEL TRENDS
WITH WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED...AND FORECAST WIND SPEEDS
MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED WITH LATER UPDATES. IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF
THE FORCING/ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST
OF THE PANHANDLES...BUT SOME MODELS GENERATE LIGHT QPF SIGNALS NEAR
THE AREA. HAVE MAINTAINED AND TEMPORALLY EXTENDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION OF SHOWERS TO RANGE FROM 18Z MONDAY TO 12 Z TUESDAY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.

WHAT APPEARS TO BE A LESS AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE
OVER THE AREA AROUND MID WEEK WITH THE FLOW ALOFT THEN TRANSITIONING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER MILD
COLD FRONT THURSDAY...THUS TEMPERATURES GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

LINDLEY

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 250344 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1044 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY EVENING.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RATHER BENIGN AUTUMN WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

A PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER AIR RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE OVER WEST TEXAS
THROUGH SATURDAY...PROMOTING UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES SOME
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DEEPEN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...AS THE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
THIS WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY OF NOTABLY WARM CONDITIONS.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO INCREASE MSLP/HEIGHT GRADIENTS
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...BOTH IN
THE FORM OF DOWNSLOPE PRE-FRONTAL WINDS DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND
ALSO IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT MONDAY EVENING. MODEL TRENDS
WITH WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED...AND FORECAST WIND SPEEDS
MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED WITH LATER UPDATES. IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF
THE FORCING/ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST
OF THE PANHANDLES...BUT SOME MODELS GENERATE LIGHT QPF SIGNALS NEAR
THE AREA. HAVE MAINTAINED AND TEMPORALLY EXTENDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION OF SHOWERS TO RANGE FROM 18Z MONDAY TO 12 Z TUESDAY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.

WHAT APPEARS TO BE A LESS AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE
OVER THE AREA AROUND MID WEEK WITH THE FLOW ALOFT THEN TRANSITIONING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER MILD
COLD FRONT THURSDAY...THUS TEMPERATURES GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

LINDLEY

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 242337 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
637 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RATHER BENIGN AUTUMN WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

A PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER AIR RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE OVER WEST TEXAS
THROUGH SATURDAY...PROMOTING UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES SOME
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DEEPEN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...AS THE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
THIS WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY OF NOTABLY WARM CONDITIONS.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO INCREASE MSLP/HEIGHT GRADIENTS
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...BOTH IN
THE FORM OF DOWNSLOPE PRE-FRONTAL WINDS DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND
ALSO IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT MONDAY EVENING. MODEL TRENDS
WITH WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED...AND FORECAST WIND SPEEDS
MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED WITH LATER UPDATES. IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF
THE FORCING/ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST
OF THE PANHANDLES...BUT SOME MODELS GENERATE LIGHT QPF SIGNALS NEAR
THE AREA. HAVE MAINTAINED AND TEMPORALLY EXTENDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION OF SHOWERS TO RANGE FROM 18Z MONDAY TO 12 Z TUESDAY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.

WHAT APPEARS TO BE A LESS AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE
OVER THE AREA AROUND MID WEEK WITH THE FLOW ALOFT THEN TRANSITIONING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER MILD
COLD FRONT THURSDAY...THUS TEMPERATURES GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

LINDLEY

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 242011
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
311 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
RATHER BENIGN AUTUMN WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

A PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER AIR RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE OVER WEST TEXAS
THROUGH SATURDAY...PROMOTING UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES SOME
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DEEPEN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...AS THE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
THIS WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY OF NOTABLY WARM CONDITIONS.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO INCREASE MSLP/HEIGHT GRADIENTS
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...BOTH IN
THE FORM OF DOWNSLOPE PRE-FRONTAL WINDS DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND
ALSO IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT MONDAY EVENING. MODEL TRENDS
WITH WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED...AND FORECAST WIND SPEEDS
MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED WITH LATER UPDATES. IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF
THE FORCING/ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST
OF THE PANHANDLES...BUT SOME MODELS GENERATE LIGHT QPF SIGNALS NEAR
THE AREA. HAVE MAINTAINED AND TEMPORALLY EXTENDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION OF SHOWERS TO RANGE FROM 18Z MONDAY TO 12 Z TUESDAY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.

WHAT APPEARS TO BE A LESS AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE
OVER THE AREA AROUND MID WEEK WITH THE FLOW ALOFT THEN TRANSITIONING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER MILD
COLD FRONT THURSDAY...THUS TEMPERATURES GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

LINDLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                54  87  54  85  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  53  90  52  88  56 /   0   0   0   0   5
BOISE CITY OK              50  85  50  84  50 /   0   0   0   5   5
BORGER TX                  56  91  57  87  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              52  91  52  86  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  52  89  51  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               57  90  55  88  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 48  88  47  84  49 /   0   0   0   0   5
GUYMON OK                  50  89  51  87  53 /   0   0   0   0   5
HEREFORD TX                51  89  51  84  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                54  87  55  88  56 /   0   0   0   0   5
PAMPA TX                   56  86  55  86  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                56  88  54  89  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              57  89  56  90  59 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

10







000
FXUS64 KAMA 241726
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1226 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 25/18Z. LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND MINIMAL PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL INCREASE JUST BEYOND THE 25/18Z SCOPE OF
THIS TAF CYCLE.

LINDLEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

UPDATE...
PATCHY MORNING FOG IS DISSIPATING WITH VISIBILITIES INCREASING
UPWARDS OF 3-4 MILES. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED 15 TO 16Z. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN DISCUSSED OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS HAS REMAINED UNCHANGED. NO SIGNIFICANT/IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OF IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS THROUGH ABOUT 14Z.

THERE ARE A FEW TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR IMPROVEMENT ON THE
CONSENSUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THESE WILL RESULT IN ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. ONE IS TIMING OF CIRRUS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A SUBTLE
LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH MAY HAVE SOME AFFECT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ALBEIT VERY LITTLE. SUNDAY WILL BE THE THIRD DAY OF
TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER.

CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ON UPPER TROUGH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD ENTER THE NORTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN A DRY FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT MOISTENING
OF MID LEVELS CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS IT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
OVERLY HIGH IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION GIVEN QUITE DRY LOW LEVELS
AND AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS IF IT HAPPENS AT
ALL. MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS FURTHER EAST
INTO OKLAHOMA AND CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE
MORE EXTENSIVE AND PROLONGED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

TWO OTHER ITEMS OF INTEREST IN THIS FORECAST ARE PRE AND POST
FRONTAL WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE GENERAL PATTERN WOULD NOT FAVOR A SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT.
WE WILL SEE HOW THE STRENGTH/GEOMETRY OF THE TROUGH EVOLVES BETWEEN
NOW AND THEN BUT AS IS DEPICTED AT THIS POINT POST FRONTAL SURFACE
PRESSURE RISES AND/OR WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER REALLY
WOULD NOT SUPPORT WINDS OVER ABOUT 20-25 MPH.

MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SHOW
DISAGREEMENT TOWARD MID WEEK. THE GENERAL THEME TOWARD THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD IS FOR UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO RETURN ALONG WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

10







000
FXUS64 KAMA 241440
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
940 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
PATCHY MORNING FOG IS DISSIPATING WITH VISIBILITIES INCREASING
UPWARDS OF 3-4 MILES. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED 15 TO 16Z. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT FOG AT KAMA THROUGH SUNRISE...OTHERWISE
LIGHT SW/S WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.

MOULTON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN DISCUSSED OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS HAS REMAINED UNCHANGED. NO SIGNIFICANT/IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OF IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS THROUGH ABOUT 14Z.

THERE ARE A FEW TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR IMPROVEMENT ON THE
CONSENSUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THESE WILL RESULT IN ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. ONE IS TIMING OF CIRRUS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A SUBTLE
LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH MAY HAVE SOME AFFECT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ALBEIT VERY LITTLE. SUNDAY WILL BE THE THIRD DAY OF
TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER.

CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ON UPPER TROUGH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD ENTER THE NORTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN A DRY FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT MOISTENING
OF MID LEVELS CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS IT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
OVERLY HIGH IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION GIVEN QUITE DRY LOW LEVELS
AND AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS IF IT HAPPENS AT
ALL. MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS FURTHER EAST
INTO OKLAHOMA AND CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE
MORE EXTENSIVE AND PROLONGED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

TWO OTHER ITEMS OF INTEREST IN THIS FORECAST ARE PRE AND POST
FRONTAL WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE GENERAL PATTERN WOULD NOT FAVOR A SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT.
WE WILL SEE HOW THE STRENGTH/GEOMETRY OF THE TROUGH EVOLVES BETWEEN
NOW AND THEN BUT AS IS DEPICTED AT THIS POINT POST FRONTAL SURFACE
PRESSURE RISES AND/OR WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER REALLY
WOULD NOT SUPPORT WINDS OVER ABOUT 20-25 MPH.

MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SHOW
DISAGREEMENT TOWARD MID WEEK. THE GENERAL THEME TOWARD THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD IS FOR UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO RETURN ALONG WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BRB


&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

10/18







000
FXUS64 KAMA 241440
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
940 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
PATCHY MORNING FOG IS DISSIPATING WITH VISIBILITIES INCREASING
UPWARDS OF 3-4 MILES. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED 15 TO 16Z. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT FOG AT KAMA THROUGH SUNRISE...OTHERWISE
LIGHT SW/S WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.

MOULTON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN DISCUSSED OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS HAS REMAINED UNCHANGED. NO SIGNIFICANT/IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OF IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS THROUGH ABOUT 14Z.

THERE ARE A FEW TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR IMPROVEMENT ON THE
CONSENSUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THESE WILL RESULT IN ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. ONE IS TIMING OF CIRRUS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A SUBTLE
LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH MAY HAVE SOME AFFECT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ALBEIT VERY LITTLE. SUNDAY WILL BE THE THIRD DAY OF
TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER.

CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ON UPPER TROUGH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD ENTER THE NORTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN A DRY FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT MOISTENING
OF MID LEVELS CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS IT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
OVERLY HIGH IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION GIVEN QUITE DRY LOW LEVELS
AND AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS IF IT HAPPENS AT
ALL. MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS FURTHER EAST
INTO OKLAHOMA AND CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE
MORE EXTENSIVE AND PROLONGED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

TWO OTHER ITEMS OF INTEREST IN THIS FORECAST ARE PRE AND POST
FRONTAL WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE GENERAL PATTERN WOULD NOT FAVOR A SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT.
WE WILL SEE HOW THE STRENGTH/GEOMETRY OF THE TROUGH EVOLVES BETWEEN
NOW AND THEN BUT AS IS DEPICTED AT THIS POINT POST FRONTAL SURFACE
PRESSURE RISES AND/OR WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER REALLY
WOULD NOT SUPPORT WINDS OVER ABOUT 20-25 MPH.

MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SHOW
DISAGREEMENT TOWARD MID WEEK. THE GENERAL THEME TOWARD THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD IS FOR UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO RETURN ALONG WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BRB


&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

10/18







000
FXUS64 KAMA 241109 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
609 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT FOG AT KAMA THROUGH SUNRISE...OTHERWISE
LIGHT SW/S WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.

MOULTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN DISCUSSED OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS HAS REMAINED UNCHANGED. NO SIGNIFICANT/IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OF IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS THROUGH ABOUT 14Z.

THERE ARE A FEW TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR IMPROVEMENT ON THE
CONSENSUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THESE WILL RESULT IN ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. ONE IS TIMING OF CIRRUS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A SUBTLE
LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH MAY HAVE SOME AFFECT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ALBEIT VERY LITTLE. SUNDAY WILL BE THE THIRD DAY OF
TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER.

CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ON UPPER TROUGH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD ENTER THE NORTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN A DRY FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT MOISTENING
OF MID LEVELS CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS IT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
OVERLY HIGH IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION GIVEN QUITE DRY LOW LEVELS
AND AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS IF IT HAPPENS AT
ALL. MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS FURTHER EAST
INTO OKLAHOMA AND CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE
MORE EXTENSIVE AND PROLONGED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

TWO OTHER ITEMS OF INTEREST IN THIS FORECAST ARE PRE AND POST
FRONTAL WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE GENERAL PATTERN WOULD NOT FAVOR A SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT.
WE WILL SEE HOW THE STRENGTH/GEOMETRY OF THE TROUGH EVOLVES BETWEEN
NOW AND THEN BUT AS IS DEPICTED AT THIS POINT POST FRONTAL SURFACE
PRESSURE RISES AND/OR WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER REALLY
WOULD NOT SUPPORT WINDS OVER ABOUT 20-25 MPH.

MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SHOW
DISAGREEMENT TOWARD MID WEEK. THE GENERAL THEME TOWARD THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD IS FOR UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO RETURN ALONG WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BRB

AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...AN OUTSIDE PSBLTY EXISTS FOR PATCHY FOG NEAR
SUNRISE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHERE OR IF IT WILL
DEVELOP AT ALL. THEREFORE....HAVE OMITTED FROM THIS TAF FCST CYCLE.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY EVENING.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

19/17







000
FXUS64 KAMA 240757
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
257 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN DISCUSSED OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS HAS REMAINED UNCHANGED. NO SIGNIFICANT/IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OF IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS THROUGH ABOUT 14Z.

THERE ARE A FEW TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR IMPROVEMENT ON THE
CONSENSUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THESE WILL RESULT IN ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. ONE IS TIMING OF CIRRUS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A SUBTLE
LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH MAY HAVE SOME AFFECT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ALBEIT VERY LITTLE. SUNDAY WILL BE THE THIRD DAY OF
TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER.

CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ON UPPER TROUGH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD ENTER THE NORTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN A DRY FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT MOISTENING
OF MID LEVELS CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS IT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
OVERLY HIGH IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION GIVEN QUITE DRY LOW LEVELS
AND AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS IF IT HAPPENS AT
ALL. MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS FURTHER EAST
INTO OKLAHOMA AND CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE
MORE EXTENSIVE AND PROLONGED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

TWO OTHER ITEMS OF INTEREST IN THIS FORECAST ARE PRE AND POST
FRONTAL WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE GENERAL PATTERN WOULD NOT FAVOR A SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT.
WE WILL SEE HOW THE STRENGTH/GEOMETRY OF THE TROUGH EVOLVES BETWEEN
NOW AND THEN BUT AS IS DEPICTED AT THIS POINT POST FRONTAL SURFACE
PRESSURE RISES AND/OR WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER REALLY
WOULD NOT SUPPORT WINDS OVER ABOUT 20-25 MPH.

MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SHOW
DISAGREEMENT TOWARD MID WEEK. THE GENERAL THEME TOWARD THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD IS FOR UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO RETURN ALONG WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BRB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...AN OUTSIDE PSBLTY EXISTS FOR PATCHY FOG NEAR
SUNRISE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHERE OR IF IT WILL
DEVELOP AT ALL. THEREFORE....HAVE OMITTED FROM THIS TAF FCST CYCLE.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY EVENING.

ANDRADE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                86  54  86  54  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  88  53  89  52  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              87  50  86  50  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  88  56  90  57  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              87  52  89  52  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  87  52  87  51  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               89  57  89  55  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 85  48  86  47  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  89  50  89  51  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                86  51  86  51  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                86  54  89  55  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   85  56  87  55  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                88  56  90  54  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              89  57  92  56  90 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

19/17







000
FXUS64 KAMA 240354 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1054 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...AN OUTSIDE PSBLTY EXISTS FOR PATCHY FOG NEAR
SUNRISE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHERE OR IF IT WILL
DEVELOP AT ALL. THEREFORE....HAVE OMITTED FROM THIS TAF FCST CYCLE.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY EVENING.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES OF GREAT SIGNIFICANCE HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...FOLLOWED BY PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL RIDGE
LEAD US TO CALL FOR GENERALLY CLEAR SKY THROUGH SATURDAY.  AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AND INCREASES ON SUNDAY...INITIALLY
DRY FLOW EXPECTED TO KEEP MAINLY CLEAR SKY IN PLACE ON SUNDAY...
WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.  VERY WARM DAYTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING...WITH
BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST
HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THEREAFTER
IN WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 20
PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.  LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SHIFTING
TO NORTH LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.  NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD DUE TO
RECENT WETTING RAINS AND UNSUPPORTIVE FUELS.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 240354 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1054 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...AN OUTSIDE PSBLTY EXISTS FOR PATCHY FOG NEAR
SUNRISE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHERE OR IF IT WILL
DEVELOP AT ALL. THEREFORE....HAVE OMITTED FROM THIS TAF FCST CYCLE.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY EVENING.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES OF GREAT SIGNIFICANCE HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...FOLLOWED BY PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL RIDGE
LEAD US TO CALL FOR GENERALLY CLEAR SKY THROUGH SATURDAY.  AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AND INCREASES ON SUNDAY...INITIALLY
DRY FLOW EXPECTED TO KEEP MAINLY CLEAR SKY IN PLACE ON SUNDAY...
WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.  VERY WARM DAYTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING...WITH
BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST
HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THEREAFTER
IN WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 20
PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.  LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SHIFTING
TO NORTH LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.  NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD DUE TO
RECENT WETTING RAINS AND UNSUPPORTIVE FUELS.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 232329 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
629 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES OF GREAT SIGNIFICANCE HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...FOLLOWED BY PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL RIDGE
LEAD US TO CALL FOR GENERALLY CLEAR SKY THROUGH SATURDAY.  AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AND INCREASES ON SUNDAY...INITIALLY
DRY FLOW EXPECTED TO KEEP MAINLY CLEAR SKY IN PLACE ON SUNDAY...
WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.  VERY WARM DAYTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING...WITH
BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST
HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THEREAFTER
IN WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 20
PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.  LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SHIFTING
TO NORTH LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.  NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD DUE TO
RECENT WETTING RAINS AND UNSUPPORTIVE FUELS.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 232046
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
330 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES OF GREAT SIGNIFICANCE HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...FOLLOWED BY PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL RIDGE
LEAD US TO CALL FOR GENERALLY CLEAR SKY THROUGH SATURDAY.  AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AND INCREASES ON SUNDAY...INITIALLY
DRY FLOW EXPECTED TO KEEP MAINLY CLEAR SKY IN PLACE ON SUNDAY...
WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.  VERY WARM DAYTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING...WITH
BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST
HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THEREAFTER
IN WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.  03

COCKRELL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 20
PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.  LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SHIFTING
TO NORTH LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.  NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD DUE TO
RECENT WETTING RAINS AND UNSUPPORTIVE FUELS.  03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                52  85  54  86  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  53  89  52  90  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              51  85  49  87  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  55  87  57  88  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              51  87  51  90  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  50  86  51  87  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               54  89  56  89  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 45  86  45  87  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  49  87  49  90  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                49  86  50  87  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                51  87  52  90  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   54  85  55  87  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                52  88  54  90  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              53  87  55  92  55 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

99/03






000
FXUS64 KAMA 231743 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1243 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.

KNS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

UPDATE...
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE ALLOWED FOG TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES...WITH
VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF A MILE IN A FEW PLACES. COULD
SEE DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH BY SUNRISE.

NF

AVIATION...
DENSE FOG WILL LIMIT VISIBILITIES TO LIFR OR VLIFR AT TIMES THIS
MORNING AT KDHT AND KGUY. AMENDMENTS LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
UNTIL THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LIFT.

NF

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. A RELATIVELY QUIET
PERIOD IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A CLEARING TREND
TODAY AFTER AREAS OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
RISES WILL OCCUR AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE
REGION. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH (BY AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES) WILL BE
THE RESULT OF THIS ANOMALOUS RIDGE THIS WEEKEND AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE
TO AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AND A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH. SOME CIRRUS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SHORTWAVE BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED AND FORCING WILL BE MEAGER. ECMWF REMAINS MORE AMPLIFIED AND
LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL FORCE THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AT SOME POINT LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT. A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS WILL LIMIT PRE-FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT TO AREAS FURTHER EAST IN OKLAHOMA. WITH THE
SLOWER/STRONGER ECMWF SOLUTION...A GRADUAL DEEPENING OF MOISTURE MAY
BE ENOUGH FOR SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN ALSO
DEPICTING A DEEPER MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH...HAVE INCREASED POPS
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
JUST ENOUGH FOR MENTION IN THE WX GRIDS. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS BOTH PRE AND POST FRONTAL MAY END UP BEING THE
GREATEST IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND
RELATIVELY LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KAMA 231743 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1243 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.

KNS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

UPDATE...
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE ALLOWED FOG TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES...WITH
VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF A MILE IN A FEW PLACES. COULD
SEE DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH BY SUNRISE.

NF

AVIATION...
DENSE FOG WILL LIMIT VISIBILITIES TO LIFR OR VLIFR AT TIMES THIS
MORNING AT KDHT AND KGUY. AMENDMENTS LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
UNTIL THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LIFT.

NF

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. A RELATIVELY QUIET
PERIOD IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A CLEARING TREND
TODAY AFTER AREAS OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
RISES WILL OCCUR AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE
REGION. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH (BY AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES) WILL BE
THE RESULT OF THIS ANOMALOUS RIDGE THIS WEEKEND AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE
TO AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AND A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH. SOME CIRRUS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SHORTWAVE BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED AND FORCING WILL BE MEAGER. ECMWF REMAINS MORE AMPLIFIED AND
LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL FORCE THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AT SOME POINT LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT. A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS WILL LIMIT PRE-FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT TO AREAS FURTHER EAST IN OKLAHOMA. WITH THE
SLOWER/STRONGER ECMWF SOLUTION...A GRADUAL DEEPENING OF MOISTURE MAY
BE ENOUGH FOR SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN ALSO
DEPICTING A DEEPER MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH...HAVE INCREASED POPS
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
JUST ENOUGH FOR MENTION IN THE WX GRIDS. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS BOTH PRE AND POST FRONTAL MAY END UP BEING THE
GREATEST IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND
RELATIVELY LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KAMA 231032 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
532 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE ALLOWED FOG TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES...WITH
VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF A MILE IN A FEW PLACES. COULD
SEE DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH BY SUNRISE.

NF

.AVIATION...
DENSE FOG WILL LIMIT VISIBILITIES TO LIFR OR VLIFR AT TIMES THIS
MORNING AT KDHT AND KGUY. AMENDMENTS LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
UNTIL THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LIFT.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. A RELATIVELY QUIET
PERIOD IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A CLEARING TREND
TODAY AFTER AREAS OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
RISES WILL OCCUR AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE
REGION. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH (BY AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES) WILL BE
THE RESULT OF THIS ANOMALOUS RIDGE THIS WEEKEND AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE
TO AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AND A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH. SOME CIRRUS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SHORTWAVE BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED AND FORCING WILL BE MEAGER. ECMWF REMAINS MORE AMPLIFIED AND
LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL FORCE THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AT SOME POINT LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT. A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS WILL LIMIT PRE-FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT TO AREAS FURTHER EAST IN OKLAHOMA. WITH THE
SLOWER/STRONGER ECMWF SOLUTION...A GRADUAL DEEPENING OF MOISTURE MAY
BE ENOUGH FOR SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN ALSO
DEPICTING A DEEPER MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH...HAVE INCREASED POPS
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
JUST ENOUGH FOR MENTION IN THE WX GRIDS. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS BOTH PRE AND POST FRONTAL MAY END UP BEING THE
GREATEST IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND
RELATIVELY LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DONLEY...
     GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...
     LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

06/17







000
FXUS64 KAMA 230755
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
255 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. A RELATIVELY QUIET
PERIOD IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A CLEARING TREND
TODAY AFTER AREAS OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
RISES WILL OCCUR AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE
REGION. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH (BY AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES) WILL BE
THE RESULT OF THIS ANOMALOUS RIDGE THIS WEEKEND AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE
TO AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AND A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH. SOME CIRRUS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SHORTWAVE BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED AND FORCING WILL BE MEAGER. ECMWF REMAINS MORE AMPLIFIED AND
LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL FORCE THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AT SOME POINT LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT. A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS WILL LIMIT PRE-FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT TO AREAS FURTHER EAST IN OKLAHOMA. WITH THE
SLOWER/STRONGER ECMWF SOLUTION...A GRADUAL DEEPENING OF MOISTURE MAY
BE ENOUGH FOR SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN ALSO
DEPICTING A DEEPER MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH...HAVE INCREASED POPS
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
JUST ENOUGH FOR MENTION IN THE WX GRIDS. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS BOTH PRE AND POST FRONTAL MAY END UP BEING THE
GREATEST IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND
RELATIVELY LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                77  53  85  53  85 /   5   5   0   0   5
BEAVER OK                  79  53  89  52  87 /   5   5   0   0   5
BOISE CITY OK              75  50  85  49  85 /   0   5   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  79  55  87  56  88 /   5   5   0   0   5
BOYS RANCH TX              78  50  87  50  87 /   5   5   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  78  51  86  51  85 /   5   5   0   0   5
CLARENDON TX               79  55  89  54  88 /   5   5   0   0   5
DALHART TX                 76  49  86  48  87 /   0   5   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  78  52  87  51  87 /   5   5   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                79  50  86  51  85 /   5   0   0   0   5
LIPSCOMB TX                79  56  87  55  88 /   5   5   5   0   5
PAMPA TX                   77  53  85  53  85 /   5   5   0   0   5
SHAMROCK TX                79  55  88  55  89 /   5   5   5   0   5
WELLINGTON TX              80  58  87  58  90 /   5   5   0   0   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/17







000
FXUS64 KAMA 230549 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1249 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY BRINGING IFR CEILINGS TO KAMA
SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHILE KDHT AND KGUY SHOULD
SEE SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AT WORST THROUGH ABOUT 09Z. THEN...AS WINDS
BECOME LIGHTER OVERNIGHT...EXPECT BR TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO IFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES UNTIL AFTER 15Z-16Z. SOME LIFR VISIBILITIES
ARE POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THESE CONDITIONS IMPACTING ANY TAF
SITE ARE LOW AT THIS TIME. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO AROUND 10 KTS AND
CLEARING SKIES SHOULD BE THE RULE BEYOND 18Z.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS STARTING OUT FOR THE 00Z TAFS BUT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE BETWEEN NOW AND 06Z. LINGERING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS WE LOOSE
HEATING...BUT KAMA AND KGUY HAVE A CHANCE TO BE IMPACTED EARLY ON IN
THIS TAF CYCLE. AFTER SUNDOWN...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
IMPACT THE TERMINALS. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP BETWEEN 1SM AND 2SM
BUT COULD DROP BELOW 1SM. THIS FOG WILL PERSIST UNTIL 16Z TOMORROW
WHEN LOW LEVEL MIXING INCREASES. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST AFTER
THIS POINT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL ELONGATED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLES NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SWEEP THE PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT.
FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLES GIVEN THE WET
GROUND AND LIGHT WINDS. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT BY MID DAY THURSDAY...
LEAVING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES BEHIND.

A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE THURSDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.  THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL THEN PUSH OFF TO THE EAST TO ALLOW A FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. AND INTO THE PLAINS BY
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA...BUT THE JURY IS STILL OUT ON WHETHER IT WILL BRING RAIN
TO THE REGION OR NOT. MODELS ARE AGAIN AT ODDS ON HOW STRONG THIS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL THE MODELS START TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE NO MATTER WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/17







000
FXUS64 KAMA 222309
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
609 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS STARTING OUT FOR THE 00Z TAFS BUT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE BETWEEN NOW AND 06Z. LINGERING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS WE LOOSE
HEATING...BUT KAMA AND KGUY HAVE A CHANCE TO BE IMPACTED EARLY ON IN
THIS TAF CYCLE. AFTER SUNDOWN...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
IMPACT THE TERMINALS. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP BETWEEN 1SM AND 2SM
BUT COULD DROP BELOW 1SM. THIS FOG WILL PERSIST UNTIL 16Z TOMORROW
WHEN LOW LEVEL MIXING INCREASES. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST AFTER
THIS POINT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL ELONGATED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLES NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SWEEP THE PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT.
FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLES GIVEN THE WET
GROUND AND LIGHT WINDS. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT BY MID DAY THURSDAY...
LEAVING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES BEHIND.

A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE THURSDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.  THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL THEN PUSH OFF TO THE EAST TO ALLOW A FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. AND INTO THE PLAINS BY
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA...BUT THE JURY IS STILL OUT ON WHETHER IT WILL BRING RAIN
TO THE REGION OR NOT. MODELS ARE AGAIN AT ODDS ON HOW STRONG THIS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL THE MODELS START TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE NO MATTER WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

99/14







000
FXUS64 KAMA 222309
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
609 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS STARTING OUT FOR THE 00Z TAFS BUT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE BETWEEN NOW AND 06Z. LINGERING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS WE LOOSE
HEATING...BUT KAMA AND KGUY HAVE A CHANCE TO BE IMPACTED EARLY ON IN
THIS TAF CYCLE. AFTER SUNDOWN...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
IMPACT THE TERMINALS. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP BETWEEN 1SM AND 2SM
BUT COULD DROP BELOW 1SM. THIS FOG WILL PERSIST UNTIL 16Z TOMORROW
WHEN LOW LEVEL MIXING INCREASES. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST AFTER
THIS POINT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL ELONGATED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLES NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SWEEP THE PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT.
FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLES GIVEN THE WET
GROUND AND LIGHT WINDS. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT BY MID DAY THURSDAY...
LEAVING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES BEHIND.

A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE THURSDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.  THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL THEN PUSH OFF TO THE EAST TO ALLOW A FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. AND INTO THE PLAINS BY
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA...BUT THE JURY IS STILL OUT ON WHETHER IT WILL BRING RAIN
TO THE REGION OR NOT. MODELS ARE AGAIN AT ODDS ON HOW STRONG THIS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL THE MODELS START TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE NO MATTER WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

99/14







000
FXUS64 KAMA 221947
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
247 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL ELONGATED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLES NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SWEEP THE PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT.
FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLES GIVEN THE WET
GROUND AND LIGHT WINDS. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT BY MID DAY THURSDAY...
LEAVING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES BEHIND.

A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE THURSDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.  THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL THEN PUSH OFF TO THE EAST TO ALLOW A FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. AND INTO THE PLAINS BY
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA...BUT THE JURY IS STILL OUT ON WHETHER IT WILL BRING RAIN
TO THE REGION OR NOT. MODELS ARE AGAIN AT ODDS ON HOW STRONG THIS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL THE MODELS START TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE NO MATTER WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                53  77  52  85  53 /  10   5   5   0   0
BEAVER OK                  52  81  52  87  53 /  20   5   5   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              49  78  50  85  49 /   0   0   5   0   0
BORGER TX                  56  80  55  87  55 /  10   5   5   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              52  80  50  86  51 /   5   5   5   0   0
CANYON TX                  53  80  49  85  52 /  10   5   5   0   0
CLARENDON TX               53  79  54  87  56 /  20   5   5   0   0
DALHART TX                 50  79  45  85  49 /   5   0   5   0   0
GUYMON OK                  52  79  50  88  52 /   5   5   5   0   0
HEREFORD TX                51  81  48  85  51 /  10   5   5   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                55  80  51  87  56 /  20   5   5   0   0
PAMPA TX                   52  78  53  85  55 /  20   5   5   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                54  81  52  88  56 /  30   5   5   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              57  81  54  89  58 /  30   5   5   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/15






000
FXUS64 KAMA 221756
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1256 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
MAIN SHIELD OF RAIN HAS SHIFTED INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON IN TANDEM WITH
ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED JUST WEST OF THE
MAIN SWATH OF RAIN WHERE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COMBINED WITH
COOLER TEMPS ALOFT IN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS HAVE GENERATED SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY...ALLOWING CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP WITHIN THE
REMNANT MOISTURE PLUME. WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON.

KB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...IFR CIGS INITIALLY AT KAMA ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO MVFR
WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON AT KAMA...BUT SHOULD GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD AT KDHT AND
KGUY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANY CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 3 KFT
AGL. THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN HAS SHIFTED EAST OF ALL TERMINALS...BUT
SOME ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
WEST OF THIS COULD CLIP KAMA THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS...CLEARING
SKIES...AND LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. STILL TOUGH TO SAY HOW LOW VSBYS WILL DROP...BUT
WILL TAKE THEM INTO THE IFR RANGE FOR NOW.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CONCERNS/CHALLENGES FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE NEAR
TERM WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

WV LOOP AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST
MOVING EASTWARD. THIS WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR PRECIPITATION TOMORROW
AS IT CROSSES THE PANHANDLES. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH SREF ENSEMBLE SPREAD BEING FAIRLY SMALL. EARLY IN THE
DAY LEFT EXIT REGION OF QUICK MOVING UPPER JET STREAK AND WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN MOISTENING COLUMN SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWERS MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. COMPARISON OF CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS SHOWS SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE MESOSCALE WITH
PLACEMENT/MAGNITUDE OF CONVECTION. THE GENERAL THEME IS FOR AN
UPSWING IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. THERE
HAS BEEN SOME INCONSISTENCY ON WHERE TO PLACE HIGHER QPF VALUES AND
FELT MORE COMFORTABLE SOMEWHAT BROAD BRUSHING AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT. PWAT
VALUES RISE TO AT LEAST 2SD ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST
AND SO LOCALIZED NEAR ONE HALF INCH OR GREATER AMOUNTS SEEM POSSIBLE.
MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
UPPER FORCING QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST LATE TOMORROW AND HAVE ADJUSTED
TIMING OF THE END OF PRECIPITATION TO BE SLIGHTLY QUICKER AS
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES CONSIDERABLY DURING THE EVENING. ANOTHER CONCERN
IS FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. LATER
FORECASTS MAY HIGHLIGHT THE FOG POTENTIAL ONCE IT BECOMES CLEAR WHICH
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE WILL SEE MOST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD IN THE LONG TERM SO FELT COMFORTABLE WITH A
CONSENSUS/BLEND APPROACH THROUGH SUNDAY. 590+ DM UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE OCTOBER. HAVE CONTINUED THE UPWARD
TREND IN TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE
MOVES EAST AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FOLLOWED BY A
STRONGER/DEEPER TROUGH ON MONDAY. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES BY
THIS TIME WITH GFS CONTINUING TO BE LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF. UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF COLD FRONT
AND COOLER AIR MASS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALSO...THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS SOLUTION WOULD NECESSITATE A DRY
FORECAST AS LIMITED MOISTURE TO BEGIN WITH GETS SHIFTED QUICKLY EAST
INTO OKLAHOMA AROUND THE TIME OF PEAK FORCING. LATER FORECASTS MAY
NEED TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY IF IS
BECOMES MORE CLEAR THAT THE SLOWER/DEEPER ECMWF SOLUTION IS MOST
VIABLE.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/15







000
FXUS64 KAMA 221756
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1256 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
MAIN SHIELD OF RAIN HAS SHIFTED INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON IN TANDEM WITH
ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED JUST WEST OF THE
MAIN SWATH OF RAIN WHERE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COMBINED WITH
COOLER TEMPS ALOFT IN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS HAVE GENERATED SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY...ALLOWING CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP WITHIN THE
REMNANT MOISTURE PLUME. WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON.

KB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...IFR CIGS INITIALLY AT KAMA ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO MVFR
WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON AT KAMA...BUT SHOULD GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD AT KDHT AND
KGUY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANY CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 3 KFT
AGL. THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN HAS SHIFTED EAST OF ALL TERMINALS...BUT
SOME ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
WEST OF THIS COULD CLIP KAMA THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS...CLEARING
SKIES...AND LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. STILL TOUGH TO SAY HOW LOW VSBYS WILL DROP...BUT
WILL TAKE THEM INTO THE IFR RANGE FOR NOW.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CONCERNS/CHALLENGES FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE NEAR
TERM WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

WV LOOP AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST
MOVING EASTWARD. THIS WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR PRECIPITATION TOMORROW
AS IT CROSSES THE PANHANDLES. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH SREF ENSEMBLE SPREAD BEING FAIRLY SMALL. EARLY IN THE
DAY LEFT EXIT REGION OF QUICK MOVING UPPER JET STREAK AND WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN MOISTENING COLUMN SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWERS MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. COMPARISON OF CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS SHOWS SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE MESOSCALE WITH
PLACEMENT/MAGNITUDE OF CONVECTION. THE GENERAL THEME IS FOR AN
UPSWING IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. THERE
HAS BEEN SOME INCONSISTENCY ON WHERE TO PLACE HIGHER QPF VALUES AND
FELT MORE COMFORTABLE SOMEWHAT BROAD BRUSHING AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT. PWAT
VALUES RISE TO AT LEAST 2SD ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST
AND SO LOCALIZED NEAR ONE HALF INCH OR GREATER AMOUNTS SEEM POSSIBLE.
MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
UPPER FORCING QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST LATE TOMORROW AND HAVE ADJUSTED
TIMING OF THE END OF PRECIPITATION TO BE SLIGHTLY QUICKER AS
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES CONSIDERABLY DURING THE EVENING. ANOTHER CONCERN
IS FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. LATER
FORECASTS MAY HIGHLIGHT THE FOG POTENTIAL ONCE IT BECOMES CLEAR WHICH
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE WILL SEE MOST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD IN THE LONG TERM SO FELT COMFORTABLE WITH A
CONSENSUS/BLEND APPROACH THROUGH SUNDAY. 590+ DM UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE OCTOBER. HAVE CONTINUED THE UPWARD
TREND IN TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE
MOVES EAST AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FOLLOWED BY A
STRONGER/DEEPER TROUGH ON MONDAY. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES BY
THIS TIME WITH GFS CONTINUING TO BE LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF. UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF COLD FRONT
AND COOLER AIR MASS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALSO...THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS SOLUTION WOULD NECESSITATE A DRY
FORECAST AS LIMITED MOISTURE TO BEGIN WITH GETS SHIFTED QUICKLY EAST
INTO OKLAHOMA AROUND THE TIME OF PEAK FORCING. LATER FORECASTS MAY
NEED TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY IF IS
BECOMES MORE CLEAR THAT THE SLOWER/DEEPER ECMWF SOLUTION IS MOST
VIABLE.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/15







000
FXUS64 KAMA 221136 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
636 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS
PANHANDLE WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING AND COULD
BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS TO THE TAF SITES THIS AM.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING. AFTER O2Z-03Z...AREAS OF BR ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND IMPACT
THE TAF SITES INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CONCERNS/CHALLENGES FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE NEAR
TERM WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

WV LOOP AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST
MOVING EASTWARD. THIS WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR PRECIPITATION TOMORROW
AS IT CROSSES THE PANHANDLES. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH SREF ENSEMBLE SPREAD BEING FAIRLY SMALL. EARLY IN THE
DAY LEFT EXIT REGION OF QUICK MOVING UPPER JET STREAK AND WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN MOISTENING COLUMN SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWERS MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. COMPARISON OF CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS SHOWS SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE MESOSCALE WITH
PLACEMENT/MAGNITUDE OF CONVECTION. THE GENERAL THEME IS FOR AN
UPSWING IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. THERE
HAS BEEN SOME INCONSISTENCY ON WHERE TO PLACE HIGHER QPF VALUES AND
FELT MORE COMFORTABLE SOMEWHAT BROAD BRUSHING AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT. PWAT
VALUES RISE TO AT LEAST 2SD ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST
AND SO LOCALIZED NEAR ONE HALF INCH OR GREATER AMOUNTS SEEM POSSIBLE.
MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
UPPER FORCING QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST LATE TOMORROW AND HAVE ADJUSTED
TIMING OF THE END OF PRECIPITATION TO BE SLIGHTLY QUICKER AS
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES CONSIDERABLY DURING THE EVENING. ANOTHER CONCERN
IS FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. LATER
FORECASTS MAY HIGHLIGHT THE FOG POTENTIAL ONCE IT BECOMES CLEAR WHICH
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE WILL SEE MOST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD IN THE LONG TERM SO FELT COMFORTABLE WITH A
CONSENSUS/BLEND APPROACH THROUGH SUNDAY. 590+ DM UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE OCTOBER. HAVE CONTINUED THE UPWARD
TREND IN TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE
MOVES EAST AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FOLLOWED BY A
STRONGER/DEEPER TROUGH ON MONDAY. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES BY
THIS TIME WITH GFS CONTINUING TO BE LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF. UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF COLD FRONT
AND COOLER AIR MASS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALSO...THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS SOLUTION WOULD NECESSITATE A DRY
FORECAST AS LIMITED MOISTURE TO BEGIN WITH GETS SHIFTED QUICKLY EAST
INTO OKLAHOMA AROUND THE TIME OF PEAK FORCING. LATER FORECASTS MAY
NEED TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY IF IS
BECOMES MORE CLEAR THAT THE SLOWER/DEEPER ECMWF SOLUTION IS MOST
VIABLE.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/17







000
FXUS64 KAMA 220829
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
329 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CONCERNS/CHALLENGES FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE NEAR
TERM WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

WV LOOP AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST
MOVING EASTWARD. THIS WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR PRECIPITATION TOMORROW
AS IT CROSSES THE PANHANDLES. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH SREF ENSEMBLE SPREAD BEING FAIRLY SMALL. EARLY IN THE
DAY LEFT EXIT REGION OF QUICK MOVING UPPER JET STREAK AND WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN MOISTENING COLUMN SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWERS MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. COMPARISON OF CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS SHOWS SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE MESOSCALE WITH
PLACEMENT/MAGNITUDE OF CONVECTION. THE GENERAL THEME IS FOR AN
UPSWING IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. THERE
HAS BEEN SOME INCONSISTENCY ON WHERE TO PLACE HIGHER QPF VALUES AND
FELT MORE COMFORTABLE SOMEWHAT BROAD BRUSHING AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT. PWAT
VALUES RISE TO AT LEAST 2SD ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST
AND SO LOCALIZED NEAR ONE HALF INCH OR GREATER AMOUNTS SEEM POSSIBLE.
MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
UPPER FORCING QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST LATE TOMORROW AND HAVE ADJUSTED
TIMING OF THE END OF PRECIPITATION TO BE SLIGHTLY QUICKER AS
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES CONSIDERABLY DURING THE EVENING. ANOTHER CONCERN
IS FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. LATER
FORECASTS MAY HIGHLIGHT THE FOG POTENTIAL ONCE IT BECOMES CLEAR WHICH
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE WILL SEE MOST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD IN THE LONG TERM SO FELT COMFORTABLE WITH A
CONSENSUS/BLEND APPROACH THROUGH SUNDAY. 590+ DM UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE OCTOBER. HAVE CONTINUED THE UPWARD
TREND IN TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE
MOVES EAST AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FOLLOWED BY A
STRONGER/DEEPER TROUGH ON MONDAY. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES BY
THIS TIME WITH GFS CONTINUING TO BE LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF. UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF COLD FRONT
AND COOLER AIR MASS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALSO...THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS SOLUTION WOULD NECESSITATE A DRY
FORECAST AS LIMITED MOISTURE TO BEGIN WITH GETS SHIFTED QUICKLY EAST
INTO OKLAHOMA AROUND THE TIME OF PEAK FORCING. LATER FORECASTS MAY
NEED TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY IF IS
BECOMES MORE CLEAR THAT THE SLOWER/DEEPER ECMWF SOLUTION IS MOST
VIABLE.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                68  53  79  52  84 /  40  20   5   5   0
BEAVER OK                  75  52  80  52  87 /  30  20   5   5   0
BOISE CITY OK              74  48  81  50  85 /  20   5   0   5   0
BORGER TX                  70  55  80  55  87 /  40  20   5   5   0
BOYS RANCH TX              71  51  81  50  86 /  30  10   5   5   0
CANYON TX                  69  52  80  51  85 /  40  20   5   5   0
CLARENDON TX               70  53  81  53  86 /  60  20   5   5   0
DALHART TX                 74  50  79  49  85 /  30  10   0   5   0
GUYMON OK                  75  51  82  51  88 /  30  10   5   5   0
HEREFORD TX                69  51  80  49  85 /  40  10   5   5   0
LIPSCOMB TX                71  55  81  54  87 /  60  20   5   5   0
PAMPA TX                   68  52  78  52  85 /  60  20   5   5   0
SHAMROCK TX                71  54  81  54  87 /  60  30   5   5   0
WELLINGTON TX              76  57  83  58  88 /  60  30   5   5   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








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