000
FXUS64 KAMA 221744 AAB
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1244 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS. NO THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED NEAR TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
EXPECTED TO GUST NO HIGHER THAN 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON...AND TO THEN
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY EARLY THIS EVENING. BOUNDARY SLIPS INTO
NORTHERN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA AROUND 12Z THURSDAY...WITH SCATTERED
LAYER AROUND 1500 FEET EXPECTED AT KGUY. OTHERWISE...NO CLOUDS BELOW
10000 FEET FORECAST FOR THE TERMINALS. NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
FORESEEN.
COCKRELL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONE AREA OF CONCERN IS A LOW LEVEL JET
THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 03Z...WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER...THINK THIS IS UNLIKELY GIVEN THAT SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD STAY BETWEEN 10 AND 15KT...AND THE MAX WIND SPEED IN THE JET
IS EXPECTED TO BE 40KT...THUS SHEAR VALUES SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
JOHNSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THE TEXAS TECH WRF AND THE ECMWF INDICATING THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES REMAINING DRY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. UPPER RIDGE
TO BUILD IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND THEN BREAKING DOWN OR
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE PANHANDLES BY LATE THURSDAY. UPPER FLOW
THEN TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO LIFTS NORTHWARD BY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO AND ALLOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE PANHANDLES WHICH BECOMES
STATIONARY. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE PANHANDLES THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. A DRYLINE SETS UP ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY
THE END OF THE WEEK AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES NORTH AND WESTWARD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE.
AN ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PROVIDES PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER THE UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW
MAY RESULT IN LOW CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLY FOG WHICH MAY LINGER INTO
MUCH OF THE MORNING LATE THIS WEEK. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH DIURNAL HEATING AND MIXING CAN OCCUR WHICH SHOULD
TAKE PLACE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WILL LOWER CONFIDENCE OF SEVERE THREAT SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY FOR NOW WITH LESSER CONFIDENCE THIS WEEKEND. AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITS THE PANHANDLES TO THE EAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE
ON SATURDAY MAY RESULT IN A LATER TIMING FOR ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVES APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA ON SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW.
THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS WEEKEND WITH
THE DRYLINE HANGING BACK TO THE WEST IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND
DRYLINE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF THE PANHANDLES AND AN ACTIVE
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW CONTINUING TO PREVAIL...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SCHNEIDER
FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 TO 20
MPH OR THE MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 15 TO 20
PERCENT.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
03/15
000
FXUS64 KAMA 221124 AAA
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
624 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONE AREA OF CONCERN IS A LOW LEVEL JET
THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 03Z...WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER...THINK THIS IS UNLIKELY GIVEN THAT SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD STAY BETWEEN 10 AND 15KT...AND THE MAX WIND SPEED IN THE JET
IS EXPECTED TO BE 40KT...THUS SHEAR VALUES SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
JOHNSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THE TEXAS TECH WRF AND THE ECMWF INDICATING THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES REMAINING DRY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. UPPER RIDGE
TO BUILD IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND THEN BREAKING DOWN OR
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE PANHANDLES BY LATE THURSDAY. UPPER FLOW
THEN TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO LIFTS NORTHWARD BY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO AND ALLOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE PANHANDLES WHICH BECOMES
STATIONARY. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE PANHANDLES THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. A DRYLINE SETS UP ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY
THE END OF THE WEEK AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES NORTH AND WESTWARD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE.
AN ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PROVIDES PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER THE UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW
MAY RESULT IN LOW CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLY FOG WHICH MAY LINGER INTO
MUCH OF THE MORNING LATE THIS WEEK. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH DIURNAL HEATING AND MIXING CAN OCCUR WHICH SHOULD
TAKE PLACE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WILL LOWER CONFIDENCE OF SEVERE THREAT SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY FOR NOW WITH LESSER CONFIDENCE THIS WEEKEND. AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITS THE PANHANDLES TO THE EAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE
ON SATURDAY MAY RESULT IN A LATER TIMING FOR ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVES APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA ON SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW.
THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS WEEKEND WITH
THE DRYLINE HANGING BACK TO THE WEST IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND
DRYLINE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF THE PANHANDLES AND AN ACTIVE
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW CONTINUING TO PREVAIL...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SCHNEIDER
FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 TO 20
MPH OR THE MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 15 TO 20
PERCENT.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
16/11
000
FXUS64 KAMA 220903
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
403 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE TEXAS TECH WRF AND THE ECMWF INDICATING THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES REMAINING DRY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. UPPER RIDGE
TO BUILD IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND THEN BREAKING DOWN OR
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE PANHANDLES BY LATE THURSDAY. UPPER FLOW
THEN TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO LIFTS NORTHWARD BY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO AND ALLOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE PANHANDLES WHICH BECOMES
STATIONARY. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE PANHANDLES THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. A DRYLINE SETS UP ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY
THE END OF THE WEEK AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES NORTH AND WESTWARD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE.
AN ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PROVIDES PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER THE UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW
MAY RESULT IN LOW CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLY FOG WHICH MAY LINGER INTO
MUCH OF THE MORNING LATE THIS WEEK. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH DIURNAL HEATING AND MIXING CAN OCCUR WHICH SHOULD
TAKE PLACE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WILL LOWER CONFIDENCE OF SEVERE THREAT SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY FOR NOW WITH LESSER CONFIDENCE THIS WEEKEND. AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITS THE PANHANDLES TO THE EAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE
ON SATURDAY MAY RESULT IN A LATER TIMING FOR ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVES APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA ON SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW.
THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS WEEKEND WITH
THE DRYLINE HANGING BACK TO THE WEST IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND
DRYLINE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF THE PANHANDLES AND AN ACTIVE
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW CONTINUING TO PREVAIL...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 TO 20
MPH OR THE MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 15 TO 20
PERCENT.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 87 58 86 60 82 / 5 10 30 30 20
BEAVER OK 85 52 76 59 83 / 5 10 40 40 20
BOISE CITY OK 86 50 77 56 82 / 10 10 30 30 20
BORGER TX 89 60 84 61 83 / 5 10 30 40 20
BOYS RANCH TX 90 57 85 62 85 / 5 10 20 30 20
CANYON TX 87 57 87 60 82 / 5 10 30 30 20
CLARENDON TX 88 61 84 64 84 / 5 10 30 40 20
DALHART TX 89 52 83 58 84 / 5 10 30 30 20
GUYMON OK 86 53 77 58 83 / 5 10 40 40 20
HEREFORD TX 88 58 88 59 83 / 5 10 20 30 20
LIPSCOMB TX 84 54 81 60 81 / 5 10 40 40 20
PAMPA TX 84 58 83 60 80 / 5 10 40 40 20
SHAMROCK TX 85 57 84 62 83 / 5 10 30 40 20
WELLINGTON TX 90 60 85 65 85 / 5 10 30 40 20
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
16/11
000
FXUS64 KAMA 220446 AAB
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1146 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/ LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH
ON WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS BY MID MORNING. WINDS WILL
BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10-12 KTS.
SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF FORECAST PERIOD WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS BY THURS EVENING.
CLK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. A
FEW SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE CAN MOVE OVER
THE KDHT TERMINAL BUT NOT EXPECTING RAIN TO REDUCE VISBYS BELOW VFR.
LIGHT MAINLY SOUTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 KTS THIS EVENING WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 15 KTS MID MORNING WED AND CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z THURS.
CLK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...
HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW CHANGES TO EARLIER FORECAST. FOR TONIGHT...
HAVE RETAINED LOW POPS THIS EVENING IN NORTHWEST PART OF FORECAST
AREA...AND HAVE INTRODUCED SAME FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT...DUE TO
EXPECTED STRENGTHENING OF NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET.
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS EASTERN ONE THIRD OF AREA...ALONG EXPECTED INSTABILITY AXIS
ALONG MODEST CONVERGENCE ZONE. MOISTURE DEEPENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WARRANTING CONTINUATION OF EVENING POPS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN 2/3 OF
AREA. HAVE INTRODUCED LOW POPS INTO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALONG NOSE OF SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET NEAR LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE.
ON THURSDAY...HAVE LOWERED MORNING POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE...AND HAVE
KEPT POPS DURING AFTERNOON. RICH AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...AUGMENTED BY DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW. HAVE INCREASED POPS
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS DRYLINE RETREATS AND 850 MB UPSLOPE FLOW OF
AROUND 50 DEVELOPS. CONCUR WITH SPC THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE REORIENTED POPS ON FRIDAY...DUE TO EXPECTED POSITION OF DRYLINE
IN FAR WESTERN ZONES. HAVE KEPT POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS DEEP RICH MOISTURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVERHEAD AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN HALF OF AREA ON MONDAY DUE TO EXPECTED POSITION
OF DRYLINE. 03
COCKRELL
FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY. 03
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
05/15
000
FXUS64 KAMA 212346 AAA
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
646 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. A
FEW SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE CAN MOVE OVER
THE KDHT TERMINAL BUT NOT EXPECTING RAIN TO REDUCE VISBYS BELOW VFR.
LIGHT MAINLY SOUTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 KTS THIS EVENING WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 15 KTS MID MORNING WED AND CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z THURS.
CLK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...
HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW CHANGES TO EARLIER FORECAST. FOR TONIGHT...
HAVE RETAINED LOW POPS THIS EVENING IN NORTHWEST PART OF FORECAST
AREA...AND HAVE INTRODUCED SAME FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT...DUE TO
EXPECTED STRENGTHENING OF NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET.
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS EASTERN ONE THIRD OF AREA...ALONG EXPECTED INSTABILITY AXIS
ALONG MODEST CONVERGENCE ZONE. MOISTURE DEEPENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WARRANTING CONTINUATION OF EVENING POPS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN 2/3 OF
AREA. HAVE INTRODUCED LOW POPS INTO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALONG NOSE OF SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET NEAR LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE.
ON THURSDAY...HAVE LOWERED MORNING POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE...AND HAVE
KEPT POPS DURING AFTERNOON. RICH AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...AUGMENTED BY DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW. HAVE INCREASED POPS
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS DRYLINE RETREATS AND 850 MB UPSLOPE FLOW OF
AROUND 50 DEVELOPS. CONCUR WITH SPC THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE REORIENTED POPS ON FRIDAY...DUE TO EXPECTED POSITION OF DRYLINE
IN FAR WESTERN ZONES. HAVE KEPT POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS DEEP RICH MOISTURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVERHEAD AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN HALF OF AREA ON MONDAY DUE TO EXPECTED POSITION
OF DRYLINE. 03
COCKRELL
FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY. 03
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
05/15
000
FXUS64 KAMA 212044
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
330 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...
HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW CHANGES TO EARLIER FORECAST. FOR TONIGHT...
HAVE RETAINED LOW POPS THIS EVENING IN NORTHWEST PART OF FORECAST
AREA...AND HAVE INTRODUCED SAME FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT...DUE TO
EXPECTED STRENGTHENING OF NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET.
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS EASTERN ONE THIRD OF AREA...ALONG EXPECTED INSTABILITY AXIS
ALONG MODEST CONVERGENCE ZONE. MOISTURE DEEPENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WARRANTING CONTINUATION OF EVENING POPS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN 2/3 OF
AREA. HAVE INTRODUCED LOW POPS INTO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALONG NOSE OF SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET NEAR LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE.
ON THURSDAY...HAVE LOWERED MORNING POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE...AND HAVE
KEPT POPS DURING AFTERNOON. RICH AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...AUGMENTED BY DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW. HAVE INCREASED POPS
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS DRYLINE RETREATS AND 850 MB UPSLOPE FLOW OF
AROUND 50 DEVELOPS. CONCUR WITH SPC THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE REORIENTED POPS ON FRIDAY...DUE TO EXPECTED POSITION OF DRYLINE
IN FAR WESTERN ZONES. HAVE KEPT POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS DEEP RICH MOISTURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVERHEAD AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN HALF OF AREA ON MONDAY DUE TO EXPECTED POSITION
OF DRYLINE. 03
COCKRELL
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY. 03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 51 88 56 89 59 / 10 10 20 30 30
BEAVER OK 47 86 51 78 58 / 10 20 20 40 40
BOISE CITY OK 46 86 50 82 56 / 20 5 20 30 30
BORGER TX 54 90 57 86 59 / 20 20 20 30 40
BOYS RANCH TX 51 92 55 89 61 / 10 5 10 20 30
CANYON TX 50 88 56 89 59 / 10 10 10 30 30
CLARENDON TX 52 89 59 88 63 / 10 20 20 30 40
DALHART TX 45 89 50 86 57 / 20 5 10 30 30
GUYMON OK 46 87 51 79 59 / 20 10 20 40 40
HEREFORD TX 50 89 57 90 58 / 10 5 10 20 30
LIPSCOMB TX 48 85 54 78 61 / 10 20 20 40 40
PAMPA TX 51 85 54 86 57 / 20 20 20 40 40
SHAMROCK TX 51 86 55 85 62 / 5 20 20 30 40
WELLINGTON TX 52 91 58 87 64 / 5 20 20 30 40
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
09/03
000
FXUS64 KAMA 211744
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1244 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF SOME MVFR BLDU AT KGUY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT KAMA THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT THE THREAT IS SLIGHT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE INCLUSION AT
THIS TIME.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND THEN
SW LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AT KDHT AND KAMA. AT KGUY...STRONG NW
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT.
SIMPSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...A PERIOD OF SHRA AND TSRA IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 16Z
AT KAMA...KDHT...AND KGUY. KAMA HAS THE HIGHEST RISK OF ANY TERMINAL
TO SEE TSRA. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA IS POSSIBLE AT KDHT BETWEEN 18 AND
03Z...THOUGH THIS APPEARS TO UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
JOHNSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
UPDATE...
CONVECTION INCREASING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
MOVING NORTHEAST. UPDATED PUBLIC FORECAST PRODUCTS TO SWITCH FROM
SHOWERS TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.
ALL PUBLIC PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED AND SENT.
SCHNEIDER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. ECMWF SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND UPPER
TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING.
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH LATER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING MAY ALLOW CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE RETAINED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT BUMPED UP POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WEDNESDAY WILL BE BRIEF AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO WHICH ALLOWS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE PANHANDLES AND A DRYLINE
DEVELOPS ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTH AND WEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERE POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXISTS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND
ALLOWS FOR SHORTWAVES TO TRACK NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
UPPER HIGH TO BUILD IN OVER NORTHERN MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BUILD
NORTHWARD. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNSEASONABLY
COOL CONDITIONS TODAY AND THEN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SCHNEIDER
FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EITHER THE 20 FOOT WIND
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 TO 20 MPH OR THE MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 15 TO 20 PERCENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
09/03
000
FXUS64 KAMA 211147 AAB
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
647 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...A PERIOD OF SHRA AND TSRA IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 16Z
AT KAMA...KDHT...AND KGUY. KAMA HAS THE HIGHEST RISK OF ANY TERMINAL
TO SEE TSRA. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA IS POSSIBLE AT KDHT BETWEEN 18 AND
03Z...THOUGH THIS APPEARS TO UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
JOHNSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
UPDATE...
CONVECTION INCREASING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
MOVING NORTHEAST. UPDATED PUBLIC FORECAST PRODUCTS TO SWITCH FROM
SHOWERS TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.
ALL PUBLIC PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED AND SENT.
SCHNEIDER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. ECMWF SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND UPPER
TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING.
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH LATER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING MAY ALLOW CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE RETAINED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT BUMPED UP POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WEDNESDAY WILL BE BRIEF AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO WHICH ALLOWS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE PANHANDLES AND A DRYLINE
DEVELOPS ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTH AND WEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERE POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXISTS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND
ALLOWS FOR SHORTWAVES TO TRACK NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
UPPER HIGH TO BUILD IN OVER NORTHERN MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BUILD
NORTHWARD. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNSEASONABLY
COOL CONDITIONS TODAY AND THEN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SCHNEIDER
FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EITHER THE 20 FOOT WIND
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 TO 20 MPH OR THE MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 15 TO 20 PERCENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
16/11
000
FXUS64 KAMA 211011 AAA
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
511 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...
CONVECTION INCREASING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
MOVING NORTHEAST. UPDATED PUBLIC FORECAST PRODUCTS TO SWITCH FROM
SHOWERS TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.
ALL PUBLIC PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED AND SENT.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. ECMWF SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND UPPER
TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING.
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH LATER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING MAY ALLOW CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE RETAINED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT BUMPED UP POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WEDNESDAY WILL BE BRIEF AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO WHICH ALLOWS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE PANHANDLES AND A DRYLINE
DEVELOPS ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTH AND WEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERE POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXISTS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND
ALLOWS FOR SHORTWAVES TO TRACK NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
UPPER HIGH TO BUILD IN OVER NORTHERN MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BUILD
NORTHWARD. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNSEASONABLY
COOL CONDITIONS TODAY AND THEN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SCHNEIDER
FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EITHER THE 20 FOOT WIND
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 TO 20 MPH OR THE MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 15 TO 20 PERCENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
16/11
000
FXUS64 KAMA 210900
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
400 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. ECMWF SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND UPPER
TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING.
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH LATER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING MAY ALLOW CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE RETAINED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT BUMPED UP POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WEDNESDAY WILL BE BRIEF AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO WHICH ALLOWS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE PANHANDLES AND A DRYLINE
DEVELOPS ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTH AND WEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERE POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXISTS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND
ALLOWS FOR SHORTWAVES TO TRACK NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
UPPER HIGH TO BUILD IN OVER NORTHERN MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BUILD
NORTHWARD. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNSEASONABLY
COOL CONDITIONS TODAY AND THEN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EITHER THE 20 FOOT WIND
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 TO 20 MPH OR THE MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 15 TO 20 PERCENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 78 52 88 59 89 / 10 10 10 20 30
BEAVER OK 80 47 86 55 78 / 10 10 5 20 40
BOISE CITY OK 76 47 86 50 82 / 20 20 5 20 30
BORGER TX 80 55 90 59 86 / 10 5 10 20 30
BOYS RANCH TX 80 51 92 55 89 / 20 10 5 10 20
CANYON TX 78 50 88 59 89 / 10 10 10 10 30
CLARENDON TX 80 54 89 59 88 / 20 10 10 20 30
DALHART TX 77 47 89 52 86 / 20 20 5 10 30
GUYMON OK 79 48 87 53 79 / 20 10 5 20 40
HEREFORD TX 78 50 89 56 90 / 10 10 5 10 20
LIPSCOMB TX 79 47 85 56 78 / 10 5 10 20 40
PAMPA TX 78 52 85 57 86 / 20 5 10 20 40
SHAMROCK TX 83 53 86 60 85 / 20 5 10 20 30
WELLINGTON TX 80 55 91 62 87 / 20 5 10 20 30
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
16/11
000
FXUS64 KAMA 210452 AAB
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1152 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/ MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE TERMINALS
AND EXPECT BKN COVERAGE THROUGH THE VALID TAF FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY EVENING AND DIMINISH TO UNDER 10
KTS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE.
CLK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ A COLD FRONT HAS SLID SOUTH OF THE KAMA TERMINAL...WITH
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT ALL THREE TERMINALS. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 10-15 KTS AND GUSTY...ALTHOUGH A
SURFACE HIGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE CAN CAUSE WINDS
TO BECOME LIGHT /UNDER 10 KTS/ AND VARIABLE AFTER 21Z TUESDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEASTERN CO/NORTHEASTERN NM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST. HAVE LEFT OUT VCTS MENTION AT KGUY/KDHT
FOR NOW BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND UPDATE AS
NECESSARY.
CLK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO THIS PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR TOMORROW.
SIMPSON
LONG TERM...TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.
MAIN FOCUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IS ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AND
ATTENDANT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...BOTH OF WHICH LOOK TO BE ON THE
INCREASE LATER THIS WEEK.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TUESDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES AS THE LAST OF ANY UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT/S BEEN STATIONED TO OUR NORTH THE LAST
COUPLE DAYS SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA.
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WORKS EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE
NEXT WESTERN UPPER LOW WORKS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE PAC NW.
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY REBOUND FROM THE BRIEF COOL DOWN TOMORROW AS
THE FRONT WASHES OUT/RETREATS NORTH. SOME MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
RETURNS TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES...BUT FORCING FOR
CONVECTION LOOKS MINIMAL WITH THE UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN AND NOT
MUCH SURFACE FOCUS AS WELL. THUS WILL KEEP POPS SILENT FOR NOW...BUT
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TIMEFRAME. A COLD FRONT WILL BACKDOOR INTO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A LLJ MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH THETA-E
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TO TRIGGER SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IN THIS NOT
QUITE ENOUGH TO INSERT POPS AT THIS POINT BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING
TO MONITOR.
UPPER RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STILL LOOK TO BE ON THE INCREASE. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL...AND BE DRAPED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THE DRYLINE
WILL LIKELY MIX EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES DURING THE
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY INTERSECTING THE FRONT SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT LOCATION OF THESE BOUNDARIES IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP
DECENT MOISTURE IN PLACE...RESULTING IN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT SEVERE CONVECTION. DESPITE PRETTY WEAK FLOW ALOFT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE...A GOOD VEERING PROFILE FROM EAST/SOUTHEAST AT THE
SURFACE TO WEST/SOUTHWEST ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES SOMEWHERE ON THE ORDER OF 30-40 KTS. THUS SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS FORCING. GIVEN THE RIDGING ALOFT...THE
SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL HAVE TO PROVIDE THE FORCING. COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING ALOFT...BUT
THOSE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL POSE A SEVERE THREAT.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT SETS UP ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AHEAD OF
THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT LEE SURFACE
TROUGHING THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE DRYLINE LIKELY EITHER
SETTING UP IN EASTERN NM OR MIXING INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES EACH
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS PATTERN...WITH ANY WEAK SHORTWAVES EJECTING
OUT OF THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH ENHANCING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY NOT BE TOO WIDESPREAD ON ANY GIVEN
DAY GIVEN A LACK OF STRONGER FORCING...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL BE A DAILY POSSIBILITY. SHEAR LOOKS TO BE RATHER
MODEST /AVERAGING 30 KTS/ BUT SUFFICIENT WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
EXPECTED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG OR
SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RUN ABOVE AVERAGE...BUT NOT TO THE LEVELS
WE SAW LAST WEEK.
KB
FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
TX PANHANDLE UNTIL AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING. BEYOND THIS
EVENING...NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS WINDS WILL EITHER BE TOO LIGHT OR
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TOO HIGH.
KB
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
05/15
000
FXUS64 KAMA 210000 AAA
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
700 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ A COLD FRONT HAS SLID SOUTH OF THE KAMA TERMINAL...WITH
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT ALL THREE TERMINALS. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 10-15 KTS AND GUSTY...ALTHOUGH A
SURFACE HIGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE CAN CAUSE WINDS
TO BECOME LIGHT /UNDER 10 KTS/ AND VARIABLE AFTER 21Z TUESDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEASTERN CO/NORTHEASTERN NM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST. HAVE LEFT OUT VCTS MENTION AT KGUY/KDHT
FOR NOW BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND UPDATE AS
NECESSARY.
CLK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO THIS PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR TOMORROW.
SIMPSON
LONG TERM...TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.
MAIN FOCUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IS ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AND
ATTENDANT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...BOTH OF WHICH LOOK TO BE ON THE
INCREASE LATER THIS WEEK.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TUESDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES AS THE LAST OF ANY UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT/S BEEN STATIONED TO OUR NORTH THE LAST
COUPLE DAYS SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA.
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WORKS EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE
NEXT WESTERN UPPER LOW WORKS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE PAC NW.
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY REBOUND FROM THE BRIEF COOL DOWN TOMORROW AS
THE FRONT WASHES OUT/RETREATS NORTH. SOME MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
RETURNS TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES...BUT FORCING FOR
CONVECTION LOOKS MINIMAL WITH THE UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN AND NOT
MUCH SURFACE FOCUS AS WELL. THUS WILL KEEP POPS SILENT FOR NOW...BUT
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TIMEFRAME. A COLD FRONT WILL BACKDOOR INTO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A LLJ MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH THETA-E
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TO TRIGGER SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IN THIS NOT
QUITE ENOUGH TO INSERT POPS AT THIS POINT BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING
TO MONITOR.
UPPER RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STILL LOOK TO BE ON THE INCREASE. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL...AND BE DRAPED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THE DRYLINE
WILL LIKELY MIX EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES DURING THE
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY INTERSECTING THE FRONT SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT LOCATION OF THESE BOUNDARIES IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP
DECENT MOISTURE IN PLACE...RESULTING IN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT SEVERE CONVECTION. DESPITE PRETTY WEAK FLOW ALOFT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE...A GOOD VEERING PROFILE FROM EAST/SOUTHEAST AT THE
SURFACE TO WEST/SOUTHWEST ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES SOMEWHERE ON THE ORDER OF 30-40 KTS. THUS SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS FORCING. GIVEN THE RIDGING ALOFT...THE
SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL HAVE TO PROVIDE THE FORCING. COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING ALOFT...BUT
THOSE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL POSE A SEVERE THREAT.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT SETS UP ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AHEAD OF
THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT LEE SURFACE
TROUGHING THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE DRYLINE LIKELY EITHER
SETTING UP IN EASTERN NM OR MIXING INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES EACH
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS PATTERN...WITH ANY WEAK SHORTWAVES EJECTING
OUT OF THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH ENHANCING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY NOT BE TOO WIDESPREAD ON ANY GIVEN
DAY GIVEN A LACK OF STRONGER FORCING...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL BE A DAILY POSSIBILITY. SHEAR LOOKS TO BE RATHER
MODEST /AVERAGING 30 KTS/ BUT SUFFICIENT WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
EXPECTED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG OR
SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RUN ABOVE AVERAGE...BUT NOT TO THE LEVELS
WE SAW LAST WEEK.
KB
FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
TX PANHANDLE UNTIL AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING. BEYOND THIS
EVENING...NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS WINDS WILL EITHER BE TOO LIGHT OR
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TOO HIGH.
KB
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
05/15
000
FXUS64 KAMA 202054
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
354 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO THIS PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR TOMORROW.
SIMPSON
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.
MAIN FOCUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IS ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AND
ATTENDANT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...BOTH OF WHICH LOOK TO BE ON THE
INCREASE LATER THIS WEEK.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TUESDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES AS THE LAST OF ANY UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT/S BEEN STATIONED TO OUR NORTH THE LAST
COUPLE DAYS SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA.
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WORKS EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE
NEXT WESTERN UPPER LOW WORKS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE PAC NW.
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY REBOUND FROM THE BRIEF COOL DOWN TOMORROW AS
THE FRONT WASHES OUT/RETREATS NORTH. SOME MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
RETURNS TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES...BUT FORCING FOR
CONVECTION LOOKS MINIMAL WITH THE UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN AND NOT
MUCH SURFACE FOCUS AS WELL. THUS WILL KEEP POPS SILENT FOR NOW...BUT
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TIMEFRAME. A COLD FRONT WILL BACKDOOR INTO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A LLJ MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH THETA-E
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TO TRIGGER SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IN THIS NOT
QUITE ENOUGH TO INSERT POPS AT THIS POINT BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING
TO MONITOR.
UPPER RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STILL LOOK TO BE ON THE INCREASE. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL...AND BE DRAPED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THE DRYLINE
WILL LIKELY MIX EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES DURING THE
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY INTERSECTING THE FRONT SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT LOCATION OF THESE BOUNDARIES IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP
DECENT MOISTURE IN PLACE...RESULTING IN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT SEVERE CONVECTION. DESPITE PRETTY WEAK FLOW ALOFT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE...A GOOD VEERING PROFILE FROM EAST/SOUTHEAST AT THE
SURFACE TO WEST/SOUTHWEST ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES SOMEWHERE ON THE ORDER OF 30-40 KTS. THUS SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS FORCING. GIVEN THE RIDGING ALOFT...THE
SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL HAVE TO PROVIDE THE FORCING. COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING ALOFT...BUT
THOSE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL POSE A SEVERE THREAT.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT SETS UP ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AHEAD OF
THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT LEE SURFACE
TROUGHING THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE DRYLINE LIKELY EITHER
SETTING UP IN EASTERN NM OR MIXING INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES EACH
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS PATTERN...WITH ANY WEAK SHORTWAVES EJECTING
OUT OF THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH ENHANCING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY NOT BE TOO WIDESPREAD ON ANY GIVEN
DAY GIVEN A LACK OF STRONGER FORCING...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL BE A DAILY POSSIBILITY. SHEAR LOOKS TO BE RATHER
MODEST /AVERAGING 30 KTS/ BUT SUFFICIENT WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
EXPECTED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG OR
SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RUN ABOVE AVERAGE...BUT NOT TO THE LEVELS
WE SAW LAST WEEK.
KB
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
TX PANHANDLE UNTIL AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING. BEYOND THIS
EVENING...NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS WINDS WILL EITHER BE TOO LIGHT OR
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TOO HIGH.
KB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 87 50 79 54 90 / 5 10 10 5 10
BEAVER OK 84 51 80 49 86 / 20 20 5 10 5
BOISE CITY OK 76 45 77 48 87 / 20 20 10 10 5
BORGER TX 88 53 80 58 92 / 10 10 10 5 10
BOYS RANCH TX 87 52 81 53 93 / 10 10 10 5 5
CANYON TX 87 51 80 52 90 / 5 10 10 5 10
CLARENDON TX 91 54 81 56 91 / 10 10 10 5 10
DALHART TX 79 45 77 48 90 / 10 20 10 5 5
GUYMON OK 81 47 80 49 88 / 20 20 5 5 5
HEREFORD TX 86 51 80 52 90 / 5 10 10 5 5
LIPSCOMB TX 86 54 81 51 87 / 20 20 10 5 10
PAMPA TX 87 51 78 54 90 / 10 10 10 5 10
SHAMROCK TX 94 56 81 56 88 / 20 10 10 5 10
WELLINGTON TX 94 58 83 58 92 / 10 10 10 5 10
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
09/08
000
FXUS64 KAMA 201754 AAA
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1254 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. KDHT AND KGUY WILL CONTINUE WITH A
NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BOTH SITES HAVING AN
OUTSIDE SHOT OF SEEING A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCES
ARE SLIGHTLY BETTER AT KDHT, BUT HAVE CHOSEN TO COVER BOTH SITES WITH
VCSH AND AMEND LATER IF NECESSARY.
AT KAMA...A COOL FRONT APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF STALLING JUST
NORTH OF THE AIRPORT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP WINDS IN THE 260-300 DEGREE
RANGE AND GUSTY FOR THE REST THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. IF
THE FRONT DOES SQUEEZE THROUGH KAMA EARLY...IT WOULD BE BEFORE 19Z
AND AN AMENDMENT WOULD BE NECESSARY TO CHANGE WINDS TO THE NORTH AND
REDUCE SPEEDS, BUT THIS LOOKS UNLIKELY. KAMA SHOULD STAY DRY THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD WITH A WIND SHIFT TONIGHT BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE
NE FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE TAF PD.
SIMPSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
UPDATE...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE HIGH TEMPS IN THE SRN TX PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON. A SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS HAS MOVED SOUTH THIS MORNING AND
NOW BISECTS THE PANHANDLES...WITH READINGS NORTH OF A BOYS RANCH TO
PAMPA LINE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN SOUTH OF THIS LINE. EXPECT
THIS COOL AIRMASS WILL HANG UP FROM THE NORTH SIDE OF AMARILLO TO
WHEELER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GETTING A REINFORCING SHOVE TONIGHT.
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, HIGHS WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH TOWARD 90.
UPDATED POINT-N-CLICK AND ZONE FORECASTS ARE OUT.
SIMPSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THE ONLY CAVEAT IS IF TSRA THAT DEVELOPS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO
AND NM WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES...INCLUDING KDHT
AND KGUY...AFTER 21Z. AT THIS TIME...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY...AND IF ANY
STORMS ARE ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED
AT BEST. THUS WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. HOWEVER IF ANY TSRA
DOES MOVE INTO THE REGION...EXPECT VRB AND GUSTY WINDS...AND BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS.
JOHNSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY BEFORE TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE PANHANDLES BY
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN OVER THE PANHANDLES
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON
THURSDAY TO ALLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS AS
INDICATED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. INCREASING CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN BY LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND ALSO BY LATE SATURDAY. HAVE RETAINED CURRENT POPS
STRUCTURE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
DROPS DOWN INTO THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALLS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT FRIDAY AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO. A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS EXTREME
EASTERN NEW MEXICO OR NEAR THE TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO STATE LINE WILL
HELP TO INITIATE CONVECTION LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY...OTHERWISE NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL ON TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.
SCHNEIDER
FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST FOUR COUNTIES OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TODAY AS 20 FOOT WINDS
APPROACH 15 TO 20 MPH AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL
TO AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT. OTHERWISE...NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS EITHER THE 20 FOOT WINDS REMAIN
BELOW 15 TO 20 MPH OR THE MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
REMAIN ABOVE 15 TO 20 PERCENT.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
09/08
000
FXUS64 KAMA 201633 AAA
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1133 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.UPDATE...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE HIGH TEMPS IN THE SRN TX PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON. A SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS HAS MOVED SOUTH THIS MORNING AND
NOW BISECTS THE PANHANDLES...WITH READINGS NORTH OF A BOYS RANCH TO
PAMPA LINE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN SOUTH OF THIS LINE. EXPECT
THIS COOL AIRMASS WILL HANG UP FROM THE NORTH SIDE OF AMARILLO TO
WHEELER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GETTING A REINFORCING SHOVE TONIGHT.
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, HIGHS WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH TOWARD 90.
UPDATED POINT-N-CLICK AND ZONE FORECASTS ARE OUT.
SIMPSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THE ONLY CAVEAT IS IF TSRA THAT DEVELOPS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO
AND NM WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES...INCLUDING KDHT
AND KGUY...AFTER 21Z. AT THIS TIME...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY...AND IF ANY
STORMS ARE ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED
AT BEST. THUS WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. HOWEVER IF ANY TSRA
DOES MOVE INTO THE REGION...EXPECT VRB AND GUSTY WINDS...AND BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS.
JOHNSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY BEFORE TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE PANHANDLES BY
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN OVER THE PANHANDLES
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON
THURSDAY TO ALLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS AS
INDICATED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. INCREASING CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN BY LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND ALSO BY LATE SATURDAY. HAVE RETAINED CURRENT POPS
STRUCTURE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
DROPS DOWN INTO THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALLS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT FRIDAY AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO. A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS EXTREME
EASTERN NEW MEXICO OR NEAR THE TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO STATE LINE WILL
HELP TO INITIATE CONVECTION LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY...OTHERWISE NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL ON TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.
SCHNEIDER
FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST FOUR COUNTIES OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TODAY AS 20 FOOT WINDS
APPROACH 15 TO 20 MPH AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL
TO AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT. OTHERWISE...NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS EITHER THE 20 FOOT WINDS REMAIN
BELOW 15 TO 20 MPH OR THE MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
REMAIN ABOVE 15 TO 20 PERCENT.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
09/08
000
FXUS64 KAMA 201133 AAA
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
633 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THE ONLY CAVEAT IS IF TSRA THAT DEVELOPS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO
AND NM WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES...INCLUDING KDHT
AND KGUY...AFTER 21Z. AT THIS TIME...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY...AND IF ANY
STORMS ARE ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED
AT BEST. THUS WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. HOWEVER IF ANY TSRA
DOES MOVE INTO THE REGION...EXPECT VRB AND GUSTY WINDS...AND BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS.
JOHNSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY BEFORE TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE PANHANDLES BY
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN OVER THE PANHANDLES
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON
THURSDAY TO ALLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS AS
INDICATED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. INCREASING CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN BY LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND ALSO BY LATE SATURDAY. HAVE RETAINED CURRENT POPS
STRUCTURE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
DROPS DOWN INTO THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALLS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT FRIDAY AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO. A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS EXTREME
EASTERN NEW MEXICO OR NEAR THE TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO STATE LINE WILL
HELP TO INITIATE CONVECTION LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY...OTHERWISE NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL ON TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.
SCHNEIDER
FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST FOUR COUNTIES OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TODAY AS 20 FOOT WINDS
APPROACH 15 TO 20 MPH AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL
TO AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT. OTHERWISE...NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS EITHER THE 20 FOOT WINDS REMAIN
BELOW 15 TO 20 MPH OR THE MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
REMAIN ABOVE 15 TO 20 PERCENT.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
16/11
000
FXUS64 KAMA 200820
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
320 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY BEFORE TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE PANHANDLES BY
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN OVER THE PANHANDLES
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON
THURSDAY TO ALLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS AS
INDICATED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. INCREASING CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN BY LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND ALSO BY LATE SATURDAY. HAVE RETAINED CURRENT POPS
STRUCTURE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
DROPS DOWN INTO THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALLS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT FRIDAY AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO. A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS EXTREME
EASTERN NEW MEXICO OR NEAR THE TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO STATE LINE WILL
HELP TO INITIATE CONVECTION LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY...OTHERWISE NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL ON TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST FOUR COUNTIES OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TODAY AS 20 FOOT WINDS
APPROACH 15 TO 20 MPH AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL
TO AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT. OTHERWISE...NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS EITHER THE 20 FOOT WINDS REMAIN
BELOW 15 TO 20 MPH OR THE MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
REMAIN ABOVE 15 TO 20 PERCENT.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 82 50 77 54 88 / 5 10 5 5 5
BEAVER OK 78 50 79 52 84 / 20 20 5 5 5
BOISE CITY OK 73 46 75 48 85 / 20 20 5 5 5
BORGER TX 82 53 80 57 88 / 10 10 5 5 5
BOYS RANCH TX 81 49 78 53 89 / 10 10 5 5 5
CANYON TX 82 50 77 53 88 / 5 5 5 5 5
CLARENDON TX 89 54 81 56 88 / 10 5 5 5 5
DALHART TX 76 45 76 48 88 / 10 20 5 5 5
GUYMON OK 77 49 80 51 88 / 20 20 5 5 5
HEREFORD TX 82 49 77 52 89 / 5 5 5 5 5
LIPSCOMB TX 81 52 79 53 84 / 20 20 5 5 5
PAMPA TX 81 51 78 55 85 / 10 10 5 5 5
SHAMROCK TX 88 55 81 56 87 / 20 10 5 5 5
WELLINGTON TX 93 57 83 57 90 / 10 5 5 5 5
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
16/11
000
FXUS64 KAMA 200420 AAB
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1120 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z MONDAY
MORNING BRINGING NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE
SOME BY MONDAY EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP OFF OF THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY TRY TO
MAKE A RUN AT THE DHT AND GUY TAF SITES...BUT IT IS STILL TOO EARLY
TO TELL IF ANY ONE OF THE TAF SITES WILL BE AFFECTED.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING CHANGING
WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE GUY TAF SITE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH A TEMPO GROUP THERE. ANY SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE SETTING SUN. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY BY MID MORNING MONDAY...BUT THEY SHOULD STAY AROUND 10
KNOTS. SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS NRN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL MEANDER OVER CNTRL PLAINS STATES THRU
MONDAY WITH MINOR EMBEDDED IMPULSES ROTATING ACROSS SRN HIGH PLAINS.
SLGT CHC POPS NRN ZONES THIS EVENING...MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ARE PLAUSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS TX AND OK PNHDLS MONDAY. KEPT
TUE AND WED DRY AT THIS TIME AS THIS UPPER LOW BEGINS MOVG EWD AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY LATE WED.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHOULD REMAIN OVER SRN HIGH PLAINS THU
AND THEN SLOWLY TRANSLATE EWD FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DEEP WRN
US TROF EVOLVES. RETAINED GENERAL POP STRUCTURE FROM THU THRU SAT
BASED ON LATEST MODEL PROGS. KEPT NON MENTIONABLE POPS FOR NEXT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OVERALL...HAVE RETAINED INTEGRITY OF PREVIOUS FCST
PCKG.
ANDRADE
FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE RED FLAG
WARNING AREA THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS PANHANDLE MONDAY DUE TO WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS ALONG WITH FORECAST MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF
10 TO 15 PERCENT. NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AT THIS TIME.
ANDRADE
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
15/05
000
FXUS64 KAMA 192338 AAA
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
638 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING CHANGING
WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE GUY TAF SITE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH A TEMPO GROUP THERE. ANY SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE SETTING SUN. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY BY MID MORNING MONDAY...BUT THEY SHOULD STAY AROUND 10
KNOTS. SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS NRN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL MEANDER OVER CNTRL PLAINS STATES THRU
MONDAY WITH MINOR EMBEDDED IMPULSES ROTATING ACROSS SRN HIGH PLAINS.
SLGT CHC POPS NRN ZONES THIS EVENING...MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ARE PLAUSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS TX AND OK PNHDLS MONDAY. KEPT
TUE AND WED DRY AT THIS TIME AS THIS UPPER LOW BEGINS MOVG EWD AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY LATE WED.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHOULD REMAIN OVER SRN HIGH PLAINS THU
AND THEN SLOWLY TRANSLATE EWD FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DEEP WRN
US TROF EVOLVES. RETAINED GENERAL POP STRUCTURE FROM THU THRU SAT
BASED ON LATEST MODEL PROGS. KEPT NON MENTIONABLE POPS FOR NEXT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OVERALL...HAVE RETAINED INTEGRITY OF PREVIOUS FCST
PCKG.
ANDRADE
FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE RED FLAG
WARNING AREA THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS PANHANDLE MONDAY DUE TO WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS ALONG WITH FORECAST MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF
10 TO 15 PERCENT. NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AT THIS TIME.
ANDRADE
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF
SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...
RANDALL.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
15/05
000
FXUS64 KAMA 192228
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
528 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS NRN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL MEANDER OVER CNTRL PLAINS STATES THRU
MONDAY WITH MINOR EMBEDDED IMPULSES ROTATING ACROSS SRN HIGH PLAINS.
SLGT CHC POPS NRN ZONES THIS EVENING...MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ARE PLAUSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS TX AND OK PNHDLS MONDAY. KEPT
TUE AND WED DRY AT THIS TIME AS THIS UPPER LOW BEGINS MOVG EWD AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY LATE WED.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHOULD REMAIN OVER SRN HIGH PLAINS THU
AND THEN SLOWLY TRANSLATE EWD FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DEEP WRN
US TROF EVOLVES. RETAINED GENERAL POP STRUCTURE FROM THU THRU SAT
BASED ON LATEST MODEL PROGS. KEPT NON MENTIONABLE POPS FOR NEXT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OVERALL...HAVE RETAINED INTEGRITY OF PREVIOUS FCST
PCKG.
ANDRADE
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE RED FLAG
WARNING AREA THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS PANHANDLE MONDAY DUE TO WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS ALONG WITH FORECAST MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF
10 TO 15 PERCENT. NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AT THIS TIME.
ANDRADE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 52 81 49 78 53 / 0 5 10 5 5
BEAVER OK 52 79 50 79 51 / 20 20 20 5 5
BOISE CITY OK 47 76 46 75 49 / 20 20 20 5 5
BORGER TX 56 81 52 80 56 / 5 10 10 5 5
BOYS RANCH TX 51 81 48 78 52 / 0 10 10 5 5
CANYON TX 51 81 49 78 52 / 0 5 5 5 5
CLARENDON TX 55 87 53 81 55 / 0 5 5 5 5
DALHART TX 47 77 46 77 49 / 10 10 20 5 5
GUYMON OK 51 77 49 79 51 / 20 20 20 5 5
HEREFORD TX 50 82 48 78 51 / 0 5 5 5 5
LIPSCOMB TX 52 80 51 79 52 / 20 10 20 5 5
PAMPA TX 53 81 52 78 54 / 5 5 10 5 5
SHAMROCK TX 55 86 54 81 55 / 0 5 10 5 5
WELLINGTON TX 58 90 55 83 57 / 0 5 5 5 5
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF
SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...
RANDALL.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KAMA 191838 AAA
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
138 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.UPDATE...
LOWERED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PANHANDLES IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. ALSO EXPANDED THE
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MENTION SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE. CU FIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SHOWERS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST NM.
MOST GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OK AND NORTHERN TX PANHANDLES THIS
AFTERNOON BENEATH THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. COOLER TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY
IN THE 40S WILL KEEP MLCAPES BELOW 1000 J/KG /HIGHER INSTABILITY
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN OK PANHANDLE SHOULD DECREASE AS DRIER
AIR CONTINUES TO WORK IN BEHIND THE FRONT/...THEREBY MINIMIZING THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE CONVECTION. HOWEVER WITH MLCAPES OF 500-900 J/KG
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-40 KTS /AND A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER/...COULD
POSSIBLY SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS PRODUCE BRIEF STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND SOME SMALL HAIL.
KB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE A LITTLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH REMARK
AT KDHT AND KGUY FROM 20-01Z. IF ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS DO APPROACH
THESE TERMINALS...BRIEF STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.
ANY SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF KAMA.
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST THIS AFTERNOON AT KAMA WHERE
SOME GUSTS OVER 30 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO AOB
10 KTS EARLY THIS EVENING AND REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING.
KB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE PLAINS YESTERDAY
WILL BE STICKING AROUND FOR A LITTLE WHILE BUT SHOULD REMAIN EAST
ENOUGH TO LIMIT STORM POTENTIAL.
THIS MORNING THE DRYLINE HAS BEEN RETREATING WESTWARD AS EXPECTED
BUT WILL STAY EAST OF ITS INITIAL POSITION YESTERDAY. THIS WILL MEAN
THAT ONCE THE SUN COMES UP IT WILL SURGE EAST OF THE AREA. BUT
BEHIND THE DRYLINE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE PANHANDLES
TO KEEP US COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...MUCH COOLER FOR THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE. THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL HAVE TO TAKE THE GOOD WITH
BAD AS THE COLD FRONT COULD SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONSIDERABLE CAP FOR THE MAJORITY THE
PANHANDLES TO LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THERE DOES LOOK
LIKE THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE
SEVERAL FACTORS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO LINE UP AND OVERCOME THE CAP
ACROSS THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THESE FACTORS ARE: A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW...THE MERGER OF
THE COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE...AND MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500
J/KG. IF ANY ONE OF THESE FACTORS IS OFFSET FROM THE OTHERS THEN
FEW OR NO STORMS MAY FORM. WITH THAT BEING SAID IF THEY DO LINE
UP THEN WE COULD EASILY SEE AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. THE UNCERTAINLY OF
THE SEVERAL CONTRIBUTING FACTORS WILL KEEP CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE
LOW HOWEVER...SHOULD SEVERE STORMS FORM THE MAIN THREAT AREA WOULD
BE EAST OF A TURPIN TO CANADIAN LINE BETWEEN NOON AND 6 PM.
FIRE CONCERNS WILL PERSIST AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE BETTER PART OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. SPECIFICALLY RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHILE
ELEVATED FIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
A SLIGHTLY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BUT
FOR NOW EXPECTED THEM TO REMAIN BELOW STRONG CRITERIA.
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THIS SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY BEFORE AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW SENDS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE OVER THE CREST OF THE RIDGE. THESE SHORTWAVES
COULD BRING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP BETWEEN 8 AND 15 PERCENT WHILE 20 FOOT WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TO WEST INCREASES TO 20 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT. NORTHWEST TO WEST
20 FOOT WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED. BOTH ELEVATED
AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO END AFTER
9 PM THIS EVENING.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL DROP INTO THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE WHILE WEST 20 FOOT WINDS
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AFTER MONDAY EVENING
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF
SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...
RANDALL.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DEAF SMITH...OLDHAM...POTTER...
RANDALL.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
08/02
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