Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS64 KAMA 232010
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
210 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TWO UPPER TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF THE SECOND UPPER TROUGH EXITING
THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. BAND OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGH 00Z MONDAY AND MODELS
INDICATING DRIER CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z MONDAY. THE LATEST HRRR...THE
TTU-WRF...THE NAM...THE GFS...THE ECMWF AND THE GEM ALL FORECASTING
THE PRECIP ENDING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AFTER 00Z MONDAY. DRIER
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW EARLY THIS WEEK FOLLOWED BY A MORE ZONAL
UPPER FLOW BY THANKSGIVING DAY. MODELS HAVING A TOUGH TIME WITH THE
NEXT COLD FRONT LATER IN THE WEEK. THE COLD FRONT BACKDOORS INTO THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY BUT THEN
SOME MODELS WASH OUT THIS FRONT BY FRIDAY AND SOME MODELS LIFT THE
FRONT BACK TO THE EAST AS A WARM FRONT BY FRIDAY. EITHER
WAY...SURFACE FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST BY THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK. IT APPEARS UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE PANHANDLES AT THIS TIME FROM
THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                26  49  21  53  26 /  10   0   5   0   0
BEAVER OK                  24  51  21  51  24 /  10   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              21  52  19  52  26 /  10   0   5   0   0
BORGER TX                  28  51  24  53  28 /  10   0   5   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              26  50  21  53  24 /  10   0   5   0   0
CANYON TX                  25  52  21  54  25 /  10   0   5   0   0
CLARENDON TX               30  53  25  53  27 /   5   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 19  52  17  52  23 /  10   0   5   0   0
GUYMON OK                  23  54  21  52  23 /   5   0   5   0   0
HEREFORD TX                24  52  20  55  26 /  10   0   5   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                25  52  22  53  26 /  10   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   27  48  22  49  27 /  10   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                28  56  25  53  27 /   5   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              30  58  26  54  28 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF
     SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

01/11







000
FXUS64 KAMA 231754 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1154 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...TWEAKED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WE HAVE ALREADY REACHED MAXIMUMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE DOWNWARD SPIRAL FOR REST OF AFTERNOON.
UPGRADED PRECIPITATION TO CATEGORICAL VALUES AS A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO TRAVEL SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
LIGHT RAIN...BUT WITH COLDER AIR...FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A POSSIBLE DUSTING OF SNOW IN A FEW LOCATIONS OF THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE ...BUT
OTHERWISE DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY AND THE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE.
PRECIPITATION...CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD ALL BE ON THE DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET LEADING TO A COLD OVERNIGHT.

GARCIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO RACE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT AVIATION
CONCERN THROUGH 00Z. WINDS OF 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS ARE
FORECST AT KAMA...KDHT AND KGUY. LIGHT SHOWERS WITH SOME SNOW
FLURRIES ARE ALSO FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS
COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE CIELINGS AND VISIBILTIES TO MVFR CONDITIONS
FOR A FEW HOURS. AFTER 00Z SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE.
WINDS WILL LIGHTEN TO LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND EXPECT CLOUDS WILL BE
DISSIPATING WITH CLEARING AFTER 06Z.

GARCIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES THIS
MORNING...WITH STRONG NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS KICKING UP BEHIND IT.
WINDS WILL REACH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
40 KTS...BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX. AN AVIATION WEATHER WARNING WILL BE IN
EFFECT FOR KAMA FROM 14Z-22Z. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE FOR ABOUT A 4-HOUR PERIOD IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. COMBINATION
OF THE STRONG WINDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
BLDU...MAY RESULT IN SOME MVFR VSBYS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS START TO DIMINISH AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

KB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES WILL
DRIVE A STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
WITH THIS FRONT FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH 850MB AND 700 MB HEIGHT
GRADIENTS ALL POINT TO THE POTENTIAL OF SUSTAINED 35 MPH WINDS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF BLOWING DUST WITH
THESE HIGHER WINDS AS WELL. MODELS HAVE ALSO COME IN WETTER WITH THIS
SYSTEM. LATEST TTU WRF AND HRRR MODELS SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST SOME
KIND OF BAND OF PRECIP WILL TRAVERSE THE PANHANDLES TODAY. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND INCREASED THE POPS TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
BELIEVE THAT THE PRECIP COULD BE RAIN OR SNOW. AS THE DAY WEARS ON
THE COLUMN COOLS QUITE A BIT. THE ENTIRE CLOUD LAYER REMAINS BELOW 0
DEGREES CELSIUS AND THERE IS MOISTURE IN THE -10 TO -20 DEGREE
CELSIUS RANGE TO HELP FORM SOME SNOW FLAKES. TEMPERATURES MAY
ACTUALLY HOLD STEADY OR FALL THIS AFTERNOON AS THICKNESSES CRASH. SO
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 40S.

A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER NEAR THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE
TONIGHT IN THE BEST UPSLOPE AREA...BUT THEY WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

AFTER TONIGHT THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST AND A NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DOMINATES THE PANHANDLES FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
THE MODELS START TO DIFFER SOMEWHAT BY THANKSGIVING. THE GFS
BROADENS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF TRIES TO CARVE OUT AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WHICH WOULD PUSH ANOTHER CANADIAN COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA BY THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON LEAVING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COLDER.
THE GFS DOES NOT BRING IN THE COLDER AIR UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. FOR
NOW HAVE GONE WITH A COMPROMISE WITH THE TEMPERATURES. AT ANY RATE
THE MODELS REMAIN DRY AFTER TONIGHT.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF
     SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 231754 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1154 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...TWEAKED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WE HAVE ALREADY REACHED MAXIMUMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE DOWNWARD SPIRAL FOR REST OF AFTERNOON.
UPGRADED PRECIPITATION TO CATEGORICAL VALUES AS A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO TRAVEL SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
LIGHT RAIN...BUT WITH COLDER AIR...FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A POSSIBLE DUSTING OF SNOW IN A FEW LOCATIONS OF THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE ...BUT
OTHERWISE DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY AND THE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE.
PRECIPITATION...CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD ALL BE ON THE DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET LEADING TO A COLD OVERNIGHT.

GARCIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO RACE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT AVIATION
CONCERN THROUGH 00Z. WINDS OF 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS ARE
FORECST AT KAMA...KDHT AND KGUY. LIGHT SHOWERS WITH SOME SNOW
FLURRIES ARE ALSO FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS
COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE CIELINGS AND VISIBILTIES TO MVFR CONDITIONS
FOR A FEW HOURS. AFTER 00Z SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE.
WINDS WILL LIGHTEN TO LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND EXPECT CLOUDS WILL BE
DISSIPATING WITH CLEARING AFTER 06Z.

GARCIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES THIS
MORNING...WITH STRONG NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS KICKING UP BEHIND IT.
WINDS WILL REACH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
40 KTS...BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX. AN AVIATION WEATHER WARNING WILL BE IN
EFFECT FOR KAMA FROM 14Z-22Z. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE FOR ABOUT A 4-HOUR PERIOD IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. COMBINATION
OF THE STRONG WINDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
BLDU...MAY RESULT IN SOME MVFR VSBYS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS START TO DIMINISH AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

KB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES WILL
DRIVE A STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
WITH THIS FRONT FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH 850MB AND 700 MB HEIGHT
GRADIENTS ALL POINT TO THE POTENTIAL OF SUSTAINED 35 MPH WINDS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF BLOWING DUST WITH
THESE HIGHER WINDS AS WELL. MODELS HAVE ALSO COME IN WETTER WITH THIS
SYSTEM. LATEST TTU WRF AND HRRR MODELS SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST SOME
KIND OF BAND OF PRECIP WILL TRAVERSE THE PANHANDLES TODAY. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND INCREASED THE POPS TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
BELIEVE THAT THE PRECIP COULD BE RAIN OR SNOW. AS THE DAY WEARS ON
THE COLUMN COOLS QUITE A BIT. THE ENTIRE CLOUD LAYER REMAINS BELOW 0
DEGREES CELSIUS AND THERE IS MOISTURE IN THE -10 TO -20 DEGREE
CELSIUS RANGE TO HELP FORM SOME SNOW FLAKES. TEMPERATURES MAY
ACTUALLY HOLD STEADY OR FALL THIS AFTERNOON AS THICKNESSES CRASH. SO
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 40S.

A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER NEAR THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE
TONIGHT IN THE BEST UPSLOPE AREA...BUT THEY WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

AFTER TONIGHT THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST AND A NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DOMINATES THE PANHANDLES FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
THE MODELS START TO DIFFER SOMEWHAT BY THANKSGIVING. THE GFS
BROADENS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF TRIES TO CARVE OUT AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WHICH WOULD PUSH ANOTHER CANADIAN COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA BY THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON LEAVING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COLDER.
THE GFS DOES NOT BRING IN THE COLDER AIR UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. FOR
NOW HAVE GONE WITH A COMPROMISE WITH THE TEMPERATURES. AT ANY RATE
THE MODELS REMAIN DRY AFTER TONIGHT.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF
     SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 231717 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1117 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO RACE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT AVIATION
CONCERN THROUGH 00Z. WINDS OF 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS ARE
FORECST AT KAMA...KDHT AND KGUY. LIGHT SHOWERS WITH SOME SNOW
FLURRIES ARE ALSO FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS
COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE CIELINGS AND VISIBILTIES TO MVFR CONDITIONS
FOR A FEW HOURS. AFTER 00Z SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE.
WINDS WILL LIGHTEN TO LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND EXPECT CLOUDS WILL BE
DISSIPATING WITH CLEARING AFTER 06Z.

GARCIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES THIS
MORNING...WITH STRONG NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS KICKING UP BEHIND IT.
WINDS WILL REACH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
40 KTS...BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX. AN AVIATION WEATHER WARNING WILL BE IN
EFFECT FOR KAMA FROM 14Z-22Z. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE FOR ABOUT A 4-HOUR PERIOD IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. COMBINATION
OF THE STRONG WINDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
BLDU...MAY RESULT IN SOME MVFR VSBYS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS START TO DIMINISH AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

KB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES WILL
DRIVE A STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
WITH THIS FRONT FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH 850MB AND 700 MB HEIGHT
GRADIENTS ALL POINT TO THE POTENTIAL OF SUSTAINED 35 MPH WINDS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF BLOWING DUST WITH
THESE HIGHER WINDS AS WELL. MODELS HAVE ALSO COME IN WETTER WITH THIS
SYSTEM. LATEST TTU WRF AND HRRR MODELS SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST SOME
KIND OF BAND OF PRECIP WILL TRAVERSE THE PANHANDLES TODAY. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND INCREASED THE POPS TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
BELIEVE THAT THE PRECIP COULD BE RAIN OR SNOW. AS THE DAY WEARS ON
THE COLUMN COOLS QUITE A BIT. THE ENTIRE CLOUD LAYER REMAINS BELOW 0
DEGREES CELSIUS AND THERE IS MOISTURE IN THE -10 TO -20 DEGREE
CELSIUS RANGE TO HELP FORM SOME SNOW FLAKES. TEMPERATURES MAY
ACTUALLY HOLD STEADY OR FALL THIS AFTERNOON AS THICKNESSES CRASH. SO
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 40S.

A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER NEAR THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE
TONIGHT IN THE BEST UPSLOPE AREA...BUT THEY WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

AFTER TONIGHT THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST AND A NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DOMINATES THE PANHANDLES FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
THE MODELS START TO DIFFER SOMEWHAT BY THANKSGIVING. THE GFS
BROADENS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF TRIES TO CARVE OUT AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WHICH WOULD PUSH ANOTHER CANADIAN COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA BY THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON LEAVING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COLDER.
THE GFS DOES NOT BRING IN THE COLDER AIR UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. FOR
NOW HAVE GONE WITH A COMPROMISE WITH THE TEMPERATURES. AT ANY RATE
THE MODELS REMAIN DRY AFTER TONIGHT.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF
     SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 231717 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1117 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO RACE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT AVIATION
CONCERN THROUGH 00Z. WINDS OF 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS ARE
FORECST AT KAMA...KDHT AND KGUY. LIGHT SHOWERS WITH SOME SNOW
FLURRIES ARE ALSO FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS
COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE CIELINGS AND VISIBILTIES TO MVFR CONDITIONS
FOR A FEW HOURS. AFTER 00Z SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE.
WINDS WILL LIGHTEN TO LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND EXPECT CLOUDS WILL BE
DISSIPATING WITH CLEARING AFTER 06Z.

GARCIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES THIS
MORNING...WITH STRONG NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS KICKING UP BEHIND IT.
WINDS WILL REACH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
40 KTS...BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX. AN AVIATION WEATHER WARNING WILL BE IN
EFFECT FOR KAMA FROM 14Z-22Z. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE FOR ABOUT A 4-HOUR PERIOD IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. COMBINATION
OF THE STRONG WINDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
BLDU...MAY RESULT IN SOME MVFR VSBYS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS START TO DIMINISH AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

KB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES WILL
DRIVE A STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
WITH THIS FRONT FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH 850MB AND 700 MB HEIGHT
GRADIENTS ALL POINT TO THE POTENTIAL OF SUSTAINED 35 MPH WINDS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF BLOWING DUST WITH
THESE HIGHER WINDS AS WELL. MODELS HAVE ALSO COME IN WETTER WITH THIS
SYSTEM. LATEST TTU WRF AND HRRR MODELS SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST SOME
KIND OF BAND OF PRECIP WILL TRAVERSE THE PANHANDLES TODAY. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND INCREASED THE POPS TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
BELIEVE THAT THE PRECIP COULD BE RAIN OR SNOW. AS THE DAY WEARS ON
THE COLUMN COOLS QUITE A BIT. THE ENTIRE CLOUD LAYER REMAINS BELOW 0
DEGREES CELSIUS AND THERE IS MOISTURE IN THE -10 TO -20 DEGREE
CELSIUS RANGE TO HELP FORM SOME SNOW FLAKES. TEMPERATURES MAY
ACTUALLY HOLD STEADY OR FALL THIS AFTERNOON AS THICKNESSES CRASH. SO
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 40S.

A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER NEAR THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE
TONIGHT IN THE BEST UPSLOPE AREA...BUT THEY WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

AFTER TONIGHT THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST AND A NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DOMINATES THE PANHANDLES FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
THE MODELS START TO DIFFER SOMEWHAT BY THANKSGIVING. THE GFS
BROADENS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF TRIES TO CARVE OUT AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WHICH WOULD PUSH ANOTHER CANADIAN COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA BY THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON LEAVING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COLDER.
THE GFS DOES NOT BRING IN THE COLDER AIR UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. FOR
NOW HAVE GONE WITH A COMPROMISE WITH THE TEMPERATURES. AT ANY RATE
THE MODELS REMAIN DRY AFTER TONIGHT.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF
     SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KAMA 231146
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
546 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES THIS
MORNING...WITH STRONG NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS KICKING UP BEHIND IT.
WINDS WILL REACH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
40 KTS...BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX. AN AVIATION WEATHER WARNING WILL BE IN
EFFECT FOR KAMA FROM 14Z-22Z. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE FOR ABOUT A 4-HOUR PERIOD IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. COMBINATION
OF THE STRONG WINDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
BLDU...MAY RESULT IN SOME MVFR VSBYS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS START TO DIMINISH AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES WILL
DRIVE A STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
WITH THIS FRONT FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH 850MB AND 700 MB HEIGHT
GRADIENTS ALL POINT TO THE POTENTIAL OF SUSTAINED 35 MPH WINDS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF BLOWING DUST WITH
THESE HIGHER WINDS AS WELL. MODELS HAVE ALSO COME IN WETTER WITH THIS
SYSTEM. LATEST TTU WRF AND HRRR MODELS SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST SOME
KIND OF BAND OF PRECIP WILL TRAVERSE THE PANHANDLES TODAY. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND INCREASED THE POPS TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
BELIEVE THAT THE PRECIP COULD BE RAIN OR SNOW. AS THE DAY WEARS ON
THE COLUMN COOLS QUITE A BIT. THE ENTIRE CLOUD LAYER REMAINS BELOW 0
DEGREES CELSIUS AND THERE IS MOISTURE IN THE -10 TO -20 DEGREE
CELSIUS RANGE TO HELP FORM SOME SNOW FLAKES. TEMPERATURES MAY
ACTUALLY HOLD STEADY OR FALL THIS AFTERNOON AS THICKNESSES CRASH. SO
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 40S.

A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER NEAR THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE
TONIGHT IN THE BEST UPSLOPE AREA...BUT THEY WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

AFTER TONIGHT THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST AND A NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DOMINATES THE PANHANDLES FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
THE MODELS START TO DIFFER SOMEWHAT BY THANKSGIVING. THE GFS
BROADENS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF TRIES TO CARVE OUT AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WHICH WOULD PUSH ANOTHER CANADIAN COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA BY THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON LEAVING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COLDER.
THE GFS DOES NOT BRING IN THE COLDER AIR UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. FOR
NOW HAVE GONE WITH A COMPROMISE WITH THE TEMPERATURES. AT ANY RATE
THE MODELS REMAIN DRY AFTER TONIGHT.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...
     COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...
     HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...
     MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...
     SHERMAN...WHEELER.

OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

08/15







000
FXUS64 KAMA 231146
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
546 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES THIS
MORNING...WITH STRONG NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS KICKING UP BEHIND IT.
WINDS WILL REACH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
40 KTS...BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX. AN AVIATION WEATHER WARNING WILL BE IN
EFFECT FOR KAMA FROM 14Z-22Z. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE FOR ABOUT A 4-HOUR PERIOD IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. COMBINATION
OF THE STRONG WINDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
BLDU...MAY RESULT IN SOME MVFR VSBYS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS START TO DIMINISH AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES WILL
DRIVE A STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
WITH THIS FRONT FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH 850MB AND 700 MB HEIGHT
GRADIENTS ALL POINT TO THE POTENTIAL OF SUSTAINED 35 MPH WINDS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF BLOWING DUST WITH
THESE HIGHER WINDS AS WELL. MODELS HAVE ALSO COME IN WETTER WITH THIS
SYSTEM. LATEST TTU WRF AND HRRR MODELS SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST SOME
KIND OF BAND OF PRECIP WILL TRAVERSE THE PANHANDLES TODAY. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND INCREASED THE POPS TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
BELIEVE THAT THE PRECIP COULD BE RAIN OR SNOW. AS THE DAY WEARS ON
THE COLUMN COOLS QUITE A BIT. THE ENTIRE CLOUD LAYER REMAINS BELOW 0
DEGREES CELSIUS AND THERE IS MOISTURE IN THE -10 TO -20 DEGREE
CELSIUS RANGE TO HELP FORM SOME SNOW FLAKES. TEMPERATURES MAY
ACTUALLY HOLD STEADY OR FALL THIS AFTERNOON AS THICKNESSES CRASH. SO
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 40S.

A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER NEAR THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE
TONIGHT IN THE BEST UPSLOPE AREA...BUT THEY WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

AFTER TONIGHT THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST AND A NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DOMINATES THE PANHANDLES FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
THE MODELS START TO DIFFER SOMEWHAT BY THANKSGIVING. THE GFS
BROADENS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF TRIES TO CARVE OUT AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WHICH WOULD PUSH ANOTHER CANADIAN COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA BY THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON LEAVING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COLDER.
THE GFS DOES NOT BRING IN THE COLDER AIR UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. FOR
NOW HAVE GONE WITH A COMPROMISE WITH THE TEMPERATURES. AT ANY RATE
THE MODELS REMAIN DRY AFTER TONIGHT.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...
     COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...
     HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...
     MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...
     SHERMAN...WHEELER.

OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

08/15






000
FXUS64 KAMA 230902
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
302 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES WILL
DRIVE A STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
WITH THIS FRONT FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH 850MB AND 700 MB HEIGHT
GRADIENTS ALL POINT TO THE POTENTIAL OF SUSTAINED 35 MPH WINDS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF BLOWING DUST WITH
THESE HIGHER WINDS AS WELL. MODELS HAVE ALSO COME IN WETTER WITH THIS
SYSTEM. LATEST TTU WRF AND HRRR MODELS SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST SOME
KIND OF BAND OF PRECIP WILL TRAVERSE THE PANHANDLES TODAY. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND INCREASED THE POPS TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
BELIEVE THAT THE PRECIP COULD BE RAIN OR SNOW. AS THE DAY WEARS ON
THE COLUMN COOLS QUITE A BIT. THE ENTIRE CLOUD LAYER REMAINS BELOW 0
DEGREES CELSIUS AND THERE IS MOISTURE IN THE -10 TO -20 DEGREE
CELSIUS RANGE TO HELP FORM SOME SNOW FLAKES. TEMPERATURES MAY
ACTUALLY HOLD STEADY OR FALL THIS AFTERNOON AS THICKNESSES CRASH. SO
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 40S.

A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER NEAR THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE
TONIGHT IN THE BEST UPSLOPE AREA...BUT THEY WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

AFTER TONIGHT THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST AND A NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DOMINATES THE PANHANDLES FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
THE MODELS START TO DIFFER SOMEWHAT BY THANKSGIVING. THE GFS
BROADENS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF TRIES TO CARVE OUT AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WHICH WOULD PUSH ANOTHER CANADIAN COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA BY THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON LEAVING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COLDER.
THE GFS DOES NOT BRING IN THE COLDER AIR UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. FOR
NOW HAVE GONE WITH A COMPROMISE WITH THE TEMPERATURES. AT ANY RATE
THE MODELS REMAIN DRY AFTER TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                46  28  51  22  51 /  30  20   0   5   0
BEAVER OK                  48  23  53  21  53 /  30  10   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              46  21  51  19  52 /  30  20   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  53  30  53  25  54 /  30  10   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              49  27  52  22  53 /  30  20   0   5   0
CANYON TX                  48  27  54  22  52 /  30  20   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               52  31  55  28  52 /  30  10   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 49  20  53  18  51 /  30  20   0   5   0
GUYMON OK                  49  22  50  21  52 /  30  10   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                49  25  53  21  53 /  30  20   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                47  26  53  24  53 /  30  10   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   45  27  49  24  48 /  30  10   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                54  29  57  28  53 /  30  10   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              57  31  60  30  54 /  30  10   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...
     COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...
     HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...
     MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...
     SHERMAN...WHEELER.

OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

08/15






000
FXUS64 KAMA 230457
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1057 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...

SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF ALL THREE SITES THIS EVENING WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING. LOW STRATUS AND FOG ADVECTED
NORTHWESTWARD ALMOST TO KAMA AND KGUY EARLIER THIS EVENING BUT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL AS WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER
AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BRINGING STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS. CEILING
WILL DEVELOP AND COULD LOWER TO MVFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING EAST AND NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THESE SHOWERS DISSIPATE BEFORE AFFECTING
THE FORECAST AREA AND CONTINUE TO REMAIN JUST EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AS THE ONE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES AND
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
PANHANDLES FROM THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN REGION BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FIRST MOVE THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES BY 12Z SUNDAY...AND THEN ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z SUNDAY. THE COLDER AIR WILL LAG
A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE RESULTING IN DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPS AROUND 18Z SUNDAY OR SO AND THEN FALLING TEMPS THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME POST-FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST
PANHANDLES EARLY SUNDAY.

NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED THAT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...HOWEVER THE
MODELS NOT GENERATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW FOR NOW. THE UPPER TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE EXITING
TROUGH BY 12Z MONDAY. WILL LEAVE SUNDAY NIGHT DRY FOR NOW. THE DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND THEN TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL FLOW
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH
SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA ARE EXPERIENCING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
EVEN BRIEFLY REACHING INTO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...GUYMON.
AS THE 20 FOOT WINDS DECREASE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...ANY ELEVATED
OR MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL END. ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED SUNDAY BUT A FEW
LOCATIONS ON MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY AS WELL COULD REACH
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLES. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THE MOMENT BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. OTHERWISE...ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/09







000
FXUS64 KAMA 230457
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1057 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...

SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF ALL THREE SITES THIS EVENING WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING. LOW STRATUS AND FOG ADVECTED
NORTHWESTWARD ALMOST TO KAMA AND KGUY EARLIER THIS EVENING BUT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL AS WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER
AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BRINGING STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS. CEILING
WILL DEVELOP AND COULD LOWER TO MVFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING EAST AND NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THESE SHOWERS DISSIPATE BEFORE AFFECTING
THE FORECAST AREA AND CONTINUE TO REMAIN JUST EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AS THE ONE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES AND
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
PANHANDLES FROM THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN REGION BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FIRST MOVE THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES BY 12Z SUNDAY...AND THEN ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z SUNDAY. THE COLDER AIR WILL LAG
A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE RESULTING IN DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPS AROUND 18Z SUNDAY OR SO AND THEN FALLING TEMPS THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME POST-FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST
PANHANDLES EARLY SUNDAY.

NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED THAT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...HOWEVER THE
MODELS NOT GENERATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW FOR NOW. THE UPPER TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE EXITING
TROUGH BY 12Z MONDAY. WILL LEAVE SUNDAY NIGHT DRY FOR NOW. THE DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND THEN TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL FLOW
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH
SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA ARE EXPERIENCING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
EVEN BRIEFLY REACHING INTO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...GUYMON.
AS THE 20 FOOT WINDS DECREASE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...ANY ELEVATED
OR MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL END. ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED SUNDAY BUT A FEW
LOCATIONS ON MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY AS WELL COULD REACH
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLES. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THE MOMENT BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. OTHERWISE...ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/09






000
FXUS64 KAMA 230457
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1057 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...

SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF ALL THREE SITES THIS EVENING WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING. LOW STRATUS AND FOG ADVECTED
NORTHWESTWARD ALMOST TO KAMA AND KGUY EARLIER THIS EVENING BUT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL AS WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER
AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BRINGING STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS. CEILING
WILL DEVELOP AND COULD LOWER TO MVFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING EAST AND NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THESE SHOWERS DISSIPATE BEFORE AFFECTING
THE FORECAST AREA AND CONTINUE TO REMAIN JUST EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AS THE ONE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES AND
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
PANHANDLES FROM THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN REGION BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FIRST MOVE THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES BY 12Z SUNDAY...AND THEN ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z SUNDAY. THE COLDER AIR WILL LAG
A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE RESULTING IN DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPS AROUND 18Z SUNDAY OR SO AND THEN FALLING TEMPS THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME POST-FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST
PANHANDLES EARLY SUNDAY.

NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED THAT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...HOWEVER THE
MODELS NOT GENERATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW FOR NOW. THE UPPER TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE EXITING
TROUGH BY 12Z MONDAY. WILL LEAVE SUNDAY NIGHT DRY FOR NOW. THE DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND THEN TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL FLOW
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH
SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA ARE EXPERIENCING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
EVEN BRIEFLY REACHING INTO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...GUYMON.
AS THE 20 FOOT WINDS DECREASE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...ANY ELEVATED
OR MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL END. ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED SUNDAY BUT A FEW
LOCATIONS ON MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY AS WELL COULD REACH
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLES. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THE MOMENT BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. OTHERWISE...ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/09






000
FXUS64 KAMA 230457
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1057 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...

SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF ALL THREE SITES THIS EVENING WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING. LOW STRATUS AND FOG ADVECTED
NORTHWESTWARD ALMOST TO KAMA AND KGUY EARLIER THIS EVENING BUT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL AS WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER
AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BRINGING STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS. CEILING
WILL DEVELOP AND COULD LOWER TO MVFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING EAST AND NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THESE SHOWERS DISSIPATE BEFORE AFFECTING
THE FORECAST AREA AND CONTINUE TO REMAIN JUST EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AS THE ONE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES AND
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
PANHANDLES FROM THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN REGION BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FIRST MOVE THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES BY 12Z SUNDAY...AND THEN ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z SUNDAY. THE COLDER AIR WILL LAG
A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE RESULTING IN DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPS AROUND 18Z SUNDAY OR SO AND THEN FALLING TEMPS THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME POST-FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST
PANHANDLES EARLY SUNDAY.

NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED THAT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...HOWEVER THE
MODELS NOT GENERATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW FOR NOW. THE UPPER TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE EXITING
TROUGH BY 12Z MONDAY. WILL LEAVE SUNDAY NIGHT DRY FOR NOW. THE DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND THEN TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL FLOW
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH
SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA ARE EXPERIENCING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
EVEN BRIEFLY REACHING INTO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...GUYMON.
AS THE 20 FOOT WINDS DECREASE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...ANY ELEVATED
OR MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL END. ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED SUNDAY BUT A FEW
LOCATIONS ON MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY AS WELL COULD REACH
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLES. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THE MOMENT BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. OTHERWISE...ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/09







000
FXUS64 KAMA 222335
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
535 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...

SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD RESULTING IN VEERING WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY
MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING
STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS. A CEILING MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING OR AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR
CATEGORY. MVFR CEILINGS ARE UNLIKELY.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING EAST AND NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THESE SHOWERS DISSIPATE BEFORE AFFECTING
THE FORECAST AREA AND CONTINUE TO REMAIN JUST EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AS THE ONE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES AND
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
PANHANDLES FROM THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN REGION BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FIRST MOVE THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES BY 12Z SUNDAY...AND THEN ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z SUNDAY. THE COLDER AIR WILL LAG
A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE RESULTING IN DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPS AROUND 18Z SUNDAY OR SO AND THEN FALLING TEMPS THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME POST-FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST
PANHANDLES EARLY SUNDAY.

NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED THAT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...HOWEVER THE
MODELS NOT GENERATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW FOR NOW. THE UPPER TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE EXITING
TROUGH BY 12Z MONDAY. WILL LEAVE SUNDAY NIGHT DRY FOR NOW. THE DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND THEN TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL FLOW
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH
SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA ARE EXPERIENCING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
EVEN BRIEFLY REACHING INTO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...GUYMON.
AS THE 20 FOOT WINDS DECREASE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...ANY ELEVATED
OR MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL END. ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED SUNDAY BUT A FEW
LOCATIONS ON MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY AS WELL COULD REACH
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLES. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THE MOMENT BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. OTHERWISE...ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/09






000
FXUS64 KAMA 222335
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
535 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...

SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD RESULTING IN VEERING WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY
MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING
STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS. A CEILING MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING OR AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR
CATEGORY. MVFR CEILINGS ARE UNLIKELY.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING EAST AND NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THESE SHOWERS DISSIPATE BEFORE AFFECTING
THE FORECAST AREA AND CONTINUE TO REMAIN JUST EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AS THE ONE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES AND
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
PANHANDLES FROM THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN REGION BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FIRST MOVE THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES BY 12Z SUNDAY...AND THEN ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z SUNDAY. THE COLDER AIR WILL LAG
A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE RESULTING IN DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPS AROUND 18Z SUNDAY OR SO AND THEN FALLING TEMPS THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME POST-FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST
PANHANDLES EARLY SUNDAY.

NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED THAT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...HOWEVER THE
MODELS NOT GENERATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW FOR NOW. THE UPPER TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE EXITING
TROUGH BY 12Z MONDAY. WILL LEAVE SUNDAY NIGHT DRY FOR NOW. THE DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND THEN TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL FLOW
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH
SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA ARE EXPERIENCING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
EVEN BRIEFLY REACHING INTO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...GUYMON.
AS THE 20 FOOT WINDS DECREASE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...ANY ELEVATED
OR MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL END. ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED SUNDAY BUT A FEW
LOCATIONS ON MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY AS WELL COULD REACH
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLES. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THE MOMENT BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. OTHERWISE...ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/09







000
FXUS64 KAMA 222036
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
236 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING EAST AND NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THESE SHOWERS DISSIPATE BEFORE AFFECTING
THE FORECAST AREA AND CONTINUE TO REMAIN JUST EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AS THE ONE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES AND
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
PANHANDLES FROM THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN REGION BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FIRST MOVE THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES BY 12Z SUNDAY...AND THEN ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z SUNDAY. THE COLDER AIR WILL LAG
A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE RESULTING IN DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPS AROUND 18Z SUNDAY OR SO AND THEN FALLING TEMPS THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME POST-FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST
PANHANDLES EARLY SUNDAY.

NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED THAT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...HOWEVER THE
MODELS NOT GENERATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW FOR NOW. THE UPPER TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE EXITING
TROUGH BY 12Z MONDAY. WILL LEAVE SUNDAY NIGHT DRY FOR NOW. THE DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND THEN TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL FLOW
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH
SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA ARE EXPERIENCING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
EVEN BRIEFLY REACHING INTO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...GUYMON.
AS THE 20 FOOT WINDS DECREASE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...ANY ELEVATED
OR MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL END. ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED SUNDAY BUT A FEW
LOCATIONS ON MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY AS WELL COULD REACH
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLES. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THE MOMENT BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. OTHERWISE...ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                36  50  25  50  21 /   0  10  10   0   5
BEAVER OK                  38  50  23  48  20 /   0  20   5   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              33  49  20  49  19 /   0  20  10   0   0
BORGER TX                  40  54  27  49  25 /   0  20   5   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              35  52  24  49  21 /   0  20  10   0   5
CANYON TX                  37  51  24  52  20 /   0  10  10   0   0
CLARENDON TX               36  53  29  53  26 /   5   5   5   0   0
DALHART TX                 33  52  17  50  17 /   0  20  10   0   5
GUYMON OK                  34  46  22  50  20 /   0  20   5   0   0
HEREFORD TX                37  52  24  50  19 /   0  10  10   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                38  52  24  50  21 /   5  20   5   0   0
PAMPA TX                   37  47  26  48  23 /   0  20   5   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                37  53  28  55  24 /   5  10   5   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              39  56  29  56  27 /  10  10   5   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

05/11






000
FXUS64 KAMA 222036
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
236 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING EAST AND NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THESE SHOWERS DISSIPATE BEFORE AFFECTING
THE FORECAST AREA AND CONTINUE TO REMAIN JUST EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AS THE ONE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES AND
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
PANHANDLES FROM THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN REGION BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FIRST MOVE THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES BY 12Z SUNDAY...AND THEN ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z SUNDAY. THE COLDER AIR WILL LAG
A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE RESULTING IN DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPS AROUND 18Z SUNDAY OR SO AND THEN FALLING TEMPS THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME POST-FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST
PANHANDLES EARLY SUNDAY.

NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED THAT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...HOWEVER THE
MODELS NOT GENERATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW FOR NOW. THE UPPER TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE EXITING
TROUGH BY 12Z MONDAY. WILL LEAVE SUNDAY NIGHT DRY FOR NOW. THE DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND THEN TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL FLOW
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH
SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA ARE EXPERIENCING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
EVEN BRIEFLY REACHING INTO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...GUYMON.
AS THE 20 FOOT WINDS DECREASE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...ANY ELEVATED
OR MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL END. ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED SUNDAY BUT A FEW
LOCATIONS ON MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY AS WELL COULD REACH
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLES. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THE MOMENT BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. OTHERWISE...ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                36  50  25  50  21 /   0  10  10   0   5
BEAVER OK                  38  50  23  48  20 /   0  20   5   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              33  49  20  49  19 /   0  20  10   0   0
BORGER TX                  40  54  27  49  25 /   0  20   5   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              35  52  24  49  21 /   0  20  10   0   5
CANYON TX                  37  51  24  52  20 /   0  10  10   0   0
CLARENDON TX               36  53  29  53  26 /   5   5   5   0   0
DALHART TX                 33  52  17  50  17 /   0  20  10   0   5
GUYMON OK                  34  46  22  50  20 /   0  20   5   0   0
HEREFORD TX                37  52  24  50  19 /   0  10  10   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                38  52  24  50  21 /   5  20   5   0   0
PAMPA TX                   37  47  26  48  23 /   0  20   5   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                37  53  28  55  24 /   5  10   5   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              39  56  29  56  27 /  10  10   5   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

05/11







000
FXUS64 KAMA 221746 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1146 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE VALID TAF FORECAST
PERIOD AS AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS THAT MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
SHOULD STAY EAST OF THE TERMINALS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AROUND 12Z AT KDHT/KGUY
AND 14Z AT KAMA. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 15-20 KTS AND GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS.
CLOUD COVER WILL THICKEN BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR CIGS. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION ATTM.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

UPDATE...
STRATUS AND FOG THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING HAS DISSIPATED. FULL SUNSHINE AND
SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPING SURFACE WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MILD DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL OLD MEXICO. LIFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM HAS
PRODUCED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OKLAHOMA WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE PERMIAN
BASIN. THE POSITION OF THIS UPPER LOW SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE AMA CWA TODAY. HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF
DRIZZLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO OTHER
AMENDMENTS NEEDED.

CLK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN AT THE AMA TAF SITE EARLY IN THIS
FORECAST...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE THEY WILL MAKE A CEILING.
THEREFORE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS FORECAST. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT ALL TAF SITES BY LATE THIS
MORNING. HIGHER GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT THE AMA TAF SITE.
WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY UP IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AHEAD OF A
CANADIAN COLD FRONT TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS. THINK THAT MOST
OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL STAY SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA. WILL KEEP DENSE FOG ADVISORY
GOING FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. LIGHT
WINDS AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THIS AREA...SO
WOULD EXPECT TO SEE FOG EXPAND SOME.

AFTER THIS UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OF TEXAS ANOTHER FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
SHORT WAVE MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH IT
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA
AS WELL BEHIND A CANADIAN COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE
REACHED SUNDAY MORNING WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
FORECAST WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. SO DRY LOOKS LIKE THE WAY TO GO. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE SOME NEXT WEEK TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

05/11







000
FXUS64 KAMA 221746 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1146 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE VALID TAF FORECAST
PERIOD AS AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS THAT MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
SHOULD STAY EAST OF THE TERMINALS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AROUND 12Z AT KDHT/KGUY
AND 14Z AT KAMA. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 15-20 KTS AND GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS.
CLOUD COVER WILL THICKEN BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR CIGS. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION ATTM.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

UPDATE...
STRATUS AND FOG THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING HAS DISSIPATED. FULL SUNSHINE AND
SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPING SURFACE WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MILD DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL OLD MEXICO. LIFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM HAS
PRODUCED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OKLAHOMA WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE PERMIAN
BASIN. THE POSITION OF THIS UPPER LOW SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE AMA CWA TODAY. HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF
DRIZZLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO OTHER
AMENDMENTS NEEDED.

CLK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN AT THE AMA TAF SITE EARLY IN THIS
FORECAST...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE THEY WILL MAKE A CEILING.
THEREFORE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS FORECAST. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT ALL TAF SITES BY LATE THIS
MORNING. HIGHER GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT THE AMA TAF SITE.
WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY UP IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AHEAD OF A
CANADIAN COLD FRONT TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS. THINK THAT MOST
OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL STAY SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA. WILL KEEP DENSE FOG ADVISORY
GOING FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. LIGHT
WINDS AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THIS AREA...SO
WOULD EXPECT TO SEE FOG EXPAND SOME.

AFTER THIS UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OF TEXAS ANOTHER FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
SHORT WAVE MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH IT
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA
AS WELL BEHIND A CANADIAN COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE
REACHED SUNDAY MORNING WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
FORECAST WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. SO DRY LOOKS LIKE THE WAY TO GO. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE SOME NEXT WEEK TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

05/11






000
FXUS64 KAMA 221609 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1009 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
STRATUS AND FOG THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING HAS DISSIPATED. FULL SUNSHINE AND
SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPING SURFACE WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MILD DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL OLD MEXICO. LIFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM HAS
PRODUCED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OKLAHOMA WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE PERMIAN
BASIN. THE POSITION OF THIS UPPER LOW SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE AMA CWA TODAY. HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF
DRIZZLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO OTHER
AMENDMENTS NEEDED.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN AT THE AMA TAF SITE EARLY IN THIS
FORECAST...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE THEY WILL MAKE A CEILING.
THEREFORE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS FORECAST. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT ALL TAF SITES BY LATE THIS
MORNING. HIGHER GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT THE AMA TAF SITE.
WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY UP IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AHEAD OF A
CANADIAN COLD FRONT TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS. THINK THAT MOST
OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL STAY SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA. WILL KEEP DENSE FOG ADVISORY
GOING FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. LIGHT
WINDS AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THIS AREA...SO
WOULD EXPECT TO SEE FOG EXPAND SOME.

AFTER THIS UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OF TEXAS ANOTHER FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
SHORT WAVE MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH IT
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA
AS WELL BEHIND A CANADIAN COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE
REACHED SUNDAY MORNING WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
FORECAST WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. SO DRY LOOKS LIKE THE WAY TO GO. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE SOME NEXT WEEK TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

05/11







000
FXUS64 KAMA 221609 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1009 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
STRATUS AND FOG THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING HAS DISSIPATED. FULL SUNSHINE AND
SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPING SURFACE WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MILD DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL OLD MEXICO. LIFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM HAS
PRODUCED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OKLAHOMA WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE PERMIAN
BASIN. THE POSITION OF THIS UPPER LOW SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE AMA CWA TODAY. HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF
DRIZZLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO OTHER
AMENDMENTS NEEDED.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN AT THE AMA TAF SITE EARLY IN THIS
FORECAST...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE THEY WILL MAKE A CEILING.
THEREFORE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS FORECAST. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT ALL TAF SITES BY LATE THIS
MORNING. HIGHER GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT THE AMA TAF SITE.
WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY UP IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AHEAD OF A
CANADIAN COLD FRONT TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS. THINK THAT MOST
OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL STAY SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA. WILL KEEP DENSE FOG ADVISORY
GOING FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. LIGHT
WINDS AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THIS AREA...SO
WOULD EXPECT TO SEE FOG EXPAND SOME.

AFTER THIS UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OF TEXAS ANOTHER FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
SHORT WAVE MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH IT
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA
AS WELL BEHIND A CANADIAN COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE
REACHED SUNDAY MORNING WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
FORECAST WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. SO DRY LOOKS LIKE THE WAY TO GO. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE SOME NEXT WEEK TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

05/11








000
FXUS64 KAMA 221109 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
509 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN AT THE AMA TAF SITE EARLY IN THIS
FORECAST...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE THEY WILL MAKE A CEILING.
THEREFORE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS FORECAST. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT ALL TAF SITES BY LATE THIS
MORNING. HIGHER GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT THE AMA TAF SITE.
WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY UP IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AHEAD OF A
CANADIAN COLD FRONT TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS. THINK THAT MOST
OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL STAY SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA. WILL KEEP DENSE FOG ADVISORY
GOING FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. LIGHT
WINDS AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THIS AREA...SO
WOULD EXPECT TO SEE FOG EXPAND SOME.

AFTER THIS UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OF TEXAS ANOTHER FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
SHORT WAVE MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH IT
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA
AS WELL BEHIND A CANADIAN COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE
REACHED SUNDAY MORNING WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
FORECAST WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. SO DRY LOOKS LIKE THE WAY TO GO. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE SOME NEXT WEEK TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...
     LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER.


&&

$$

15/08






000
FXUS64 KAMA 221109 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
509 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN AT THE AMA TAF SITE EARLY IN THIS
FORECAST...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE THEY WILL MAKE A CEILING.
THEREFORE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS FORECAST. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT ALL TAF SITES BY LATE THIS
MORNING. HIGHER GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT THE AMA TAF SITE.
WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY UP IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AHEAD OF A
CANADIAN COLD FRONT TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS. THINK THAT MOST
OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL STAY SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA. WILL KEEP DENSE FOG ADVISORY
GOING FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. LIGHT
WINDS AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THIS AREA...SO
WOULD EXPECT TO SEE FOG EXPAND SOME.

AFTER THIS UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OF TEXAS ANOTHER FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
SHORT WAVE MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH IT
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA
AS WELL BEHIND A CANADIAN COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE
REACHED SUNDAY MORNING WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
FORECAST WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. SO DRY LOOKS LIKE THE WAY TO GO. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE SOME NEXT WEEK TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...
     LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER.


&&

$$

15/08







000
FXUS64 KAMA 220858
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
258 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS. THINK THAT MOST
OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL STAY SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA. WILL KEEP DENSE FOG ADVISORY
GOING FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. LIGHT
WINDS AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THIS AREA...SO
WOULD EXPECT TO SEE FOG EXPAND SOME.

AFTER THIS UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OF TEXAS ANOTHER FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
SHORT WAVE MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH IT
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA
AS WELL BEHIND A CANADIAN COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE
REACHED SUNDAY MORNING WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
FORECAST WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. SO DRY LOOKS LIKE THE WAY TO GO. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE SOME NEXT WEEK TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                67  38  52  24  50 /  10   5  10  10   0
BEAVER OK                  69  37  50  23  51 /  10   5  10  10   0
BOISE CITY OK              68  36  50  21  49 /   0   5  20  20   0
BORGER TX                  69  41  53  26  51 /  10   5  10  10   0
BOYS RANCH TX              68  38  53  25  50 /  10   5  20  20   0
CANYON TX                  69  37  53  23  51 /  10   5  10  10   0
CLARENDON TX               69  43  56  29  53 /  10  10  10  10   0
DALHART TX                 67  33  52  19  50 /   5   0  20  20   0
GUYMON OK                  69  35  53  22  51 /   5   0  10  10   0
HEREFORD TX                69  37  53  24  50 /  10   5  20  20   0
LIPSCOMB TX                69  41  53  26  52 /  10   5  10  10   0
PAMPA TX                   66  40  49  25  49 /  10   5  10  10   0
SHAMROCK TX                68  41  57  29  55 /  10  10  10  10   0
WELLINGTON TX              68  42  60  31  56 /  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...LIPSCOMB...
     OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER.

&&

$$

08/15





000
FXUS64 KAMA 220858
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
258 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS. THINK THAT MOST
OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL STAY SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA. WILL KEEP DENSE FOG ADVISORY
GOING FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. LIGHT
WINDS AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THIS AREA...SO
WOULD EXPECT TO SEE FOG EXPAND SOME.

AFTER THIS UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OF TEXAS ANOTHER FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
SHORT WAVE MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH IT
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA
AS WELL BEHIND A CANADIAN COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE
REACHED SUNDAY MORNING WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
FORECAST WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. SO DRY LOOKS LIKE THE WAY TO GO. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE SOME NEXT WEEK TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                67  38  52  24  50 /  10   5  10  10   0
BEAVER OK                  69  37  50  23  51 /  10   5  10  10   0
BOISE CITY OK              68  36  50  21  49 /   0   5  20  20   0
BORGER TX                  69  41  53  26  51 /  10   5  10  10   0
BOYS RANCH TX              68  38  53  25  50 /  10   5  20  20   0
CANYON TX                  69  37  53  23  51 /  10   5  10  10   0
CLARENDON TX               69  43  56  29  53 /  10  10  10  10   0
DALHART TX                 67  33  52  19  50 /   5   0  20  20   0
GUYMON OK                  69  35  53  22  51 /   5   0  10  10   0
HEREFORD TX                69  37  53  24  50 /  10   5  20  20   0
LIPSCOMB TX                69  41  53  26  52 /  10   5  10  10   0
PAMPA TX                   66  40  49  25  49 /  10   5  10  10   0
SHAMROCK TX                68  41  57  29  55 /  10  10  10  10   0
WELLINGTON TX              68  42  60  31  56 /  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...LIPSCOMB...
     OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER.

&&

$$

08/15






000
FXUS64 KAMA 220547
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1147 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. LOW CLOUDS AND SOME BR STILL LOOK
POSSIBLE AT KAMA SATURDAY MORNING.

SIMPSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...00Z TAFS

INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD MAINTAIN AT KDHT AND KGUY. KAMA HAS A
GOOD SHOT AT SEEING MVFR OR IFR BASED LOW CLOUDS FROM AROUND 10Z
SATURDAY THROUGH ABOUT 16Z.

SIMPSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THIS LOW WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER OVER MUCH OF TEXAS AND POINTS EASTWARD...HOWEVER THE PROGGED
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES PRECIP-WISE. FOR TONIGHT UPPER LIFT WILL INCREASE IN
RESPONSE TO DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. LIGHT WINDS
WILL VEER OUT OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AIDING IN THE TRANSPORT OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET WELL
EAST OF THE AREA WILL ALSO HELP TO DRAW IN ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ALTHOUGH BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR WELL
EAST OF THE AMA CWA. NONETHELESS PROGGED PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND
0.75 INCHES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY SATURDAY MORNING.
INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE MODEST...SO ONLY EXPECT
ISOLATED STORMS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL DIG INTO NORTHWESTERN OLD MEXICO LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE LIFTING INTO WEST TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL FOCUS THE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS AND
MUCH OF OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER STILL EXPECT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE SATURDAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES END BY
EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT A WARM DAY SATURDAY AS DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHWEST WINDS PUSH HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 60S.

LONG TERM...
AN UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL CARVE OUT AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...MAKING FOR A NOTICEABLE COOL
DOWN SUNDAY. IN ADDITION BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
EVEN COOLER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 50S.
ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING...STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER JET AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING CAN BE ENOUGH
TO SQUEEZE OUT A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

THIS TROUGH WILL LIFT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL PLACE
THE REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
IN TIME FOR THE BIG TRAVEL DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE ADVANCES
EASTWARD. AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT NOTED...THE ECMWF IS TRENDING TOWARD
THE WARMER GFS SOLUTION IN THAT THE BULK OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL STAY
WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A DRY AND MILD
THANKSGIVING.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...
     LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER.


&&

$$

09/17






000
FXUS64 KAMA 220547
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1147 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. LOW CLOUDS AND SOME BR STILL LOOK
POSSIBLE AT KAMA SATURDAY MORNING.

SIMPSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...00Z TAFS

INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD MAINTAIN AT KDHT AND KGUY. KAMA HAS A
GOOD SHOT AT SEEING MVFR OR IFR BASED LOW CLOUDS FROM AROUND 10Z
SATURDAY THROUGH ABOUT 16Z.

SIMPSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THIS LOW WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER OVER MUCH OF TEXAS AND POINTS EASTWARD...HOWEVER THE PROGGED
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES PRECIP-WISE. FOR TONIGHT UPPER LIFT WILL INCREASE IN
RESPONSE TO DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. LIGHT WINDS
WILL VEER OUT OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AIDING IN THE TRANSPORT OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET WELL
EAST OF THE AREA WILL ALSO HELP TO DRAW IN ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ALTHOUGH BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR WELL
EAST OF THE AMA CWA. NONETHELESS PROGGED PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND
0.75 INCHES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY SATURDAY MORNING.
INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE MODEST...SO ONLY EXPECT
ISOLATED STORMS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL DIG INTO NORTHWESTERN OLD MEXICO LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE LIFTING INTO WEST TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL FOCUS THE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS AND
MUCH OF OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER STILL EXPECT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE SATURDAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES END BY
EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT A WARM DAY SATURDAY AS DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHWEST WINDS PUSH HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 60S.

LONG TERM...
AN UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL CARVE OUT AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...MAKING FOR A NOTICEABLE COOL
DOWN SUNDAY. IN ADDITION BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
EVEN COOLER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 50S.
ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING...STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER JET AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING CAN BE ENOUGH
TO SQUEEZE OUT A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

THIS TROUGH WILL LIFT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL PLACE
THE REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
IN TIME FOR THE BIG TRAVEL DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE ADVANCES
EASTWARD. AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT NOTED...THE ECMWF IS TRENDING TOWARD
THE WARMER GFS SOLUTION IN THAT THE BULK OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL STAY
WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A DRY AND MILD
THANKSGIVING.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...
     LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER.


&&

$$

09/17







000
FXUS64 KAMA 212351
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
551 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS

INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD MAINTAIN AT KDHT AND KGUY. KAMA HAS A
GOOD SHOT AT SEEING MVFR OR IFR BASED LOW CLOUDS FROM AROUND 10Z
SATURDAY THROUGH ABOUT 16Z.

SIMPSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THIS LOW WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER OVER MUCH OF TEXAS AND POINTS EASTWARD...HOWEVER THE PROGGED
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES PRECIP-WISE. FOR TONIGHT UPPER LIFT WILL INCREASE IN
RESPONSE TO DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. LIGHT WINDS
WILL VEER OUT OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AIDING IN THE TRANSPORT OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET WELL
EAST OF THE AREA WILL ALSO HELP TO DRAW IN ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ALTHOUGH BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR WELL
EAST OF THE AMA CWA. NONETHELESS PROGGED PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND
0.75 INCHES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY SATURDAY MORNING.
INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE MODEST...SO ONLY EXPECT
ISOLATED STORMS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL DIG INTO NORTHWESTERN OLD MEXICO LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE LIFTING INTO WEST TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL FOCUS THE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS AND
MUCH OF OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER STILL EXPECT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE SATURDAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES END BY
EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT A WARM DAY SATURDAY AS DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHWEST WINDS PUSH HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 60S.

LONG TERM...
AN UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL CARVE OUT AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...MAKING FOR A NOTICEABLE COOL
DOWN SUNDAY. IN ADDITION BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
EVEN COOLER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 50S.
ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING...STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER JET AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING CAN BE ENOUGH
TO SQUEEZE OUT A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

THIS TROUGH WILL LIFT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL PLACE
THE REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
IN TIME FOR THE BIG TRAVEL DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE ADVANCES
EASTWARD. AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT NOTED...THE ECMWF IS TRENDING TOWARD
THE WARMER GFS SOLUTION IN THAT THE BULK OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL STAY
WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A DRY AND MILD
THANKSGIVING.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

09/17






000
FXUS64 KAMA 212351
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
551 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS

INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD MAINTAIN AT KDHT AND KGUY. KAMA HAS A
GOOD SHOT AT SEEING MVFR OR IFR BASED LOW CLOUDS FROM AROUND 10Z
SATURDAY THROUGH ABOUT 16Z.

SIMPSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THIS LOW WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER OVER MUCH OF TEXAS AND POINTS EASTWARD...HOWEVER THE PROGGED
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES PRECIP-WISE. FOR TONIGHT UPPER LIFT WILL INCREASE IN
RESPONSE TO DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. LIGHT WINDS
WILL VEER OUT OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AIDING IN THE TRANSPORT OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET WELL
EAST OF THE AREA WILL ALSO HELP TO DRAW IN ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ALTHOUGH BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR WELL
EAST OF THE AMA CWA. NONETHELESS PROGGED PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND
0.75 INCHES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY SATURDAY MORNING.
INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE MODEST...SO ONLY EXPECT
ISOLATED STORMS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL DIG INTO NORTHWESTERN OLD MEXICO LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE LIFTING INTO WEST TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL FOCUS THE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS AND
MUCH OF OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER STILL EXPECT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE SATURDAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES END BY
EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT A WARM DAY SATURDAY AS DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHWEST WINDS PUSH HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 60S.

LONG TERM...
AN UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL CARVE OUT AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...MAKING FOR A NOTICEABLE COOL
DOWN SUNDAY. IN ADDITION BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
EVEN COOLER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 50S.
ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING...STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER JET AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING CAN BE ENOUGH
TO SQUEEZE OUT A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

THIS TROUGH WILL LIFT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL PLACE
THE REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
IN TIME FOR THE BIG TRAVEL DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE ADVANCES
EASTWARD. AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT NOTED...THE ECMWF IS TRENDING TOWARD
THE WARMER GFS SOLUTION IN THAT THE BULK OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL STAY
WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A DRY AND MILD
THANKSGIVING.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

09/17







000
FXUS64 KAMA 212128
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
328 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THIS LOW WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER OVER MUCH OF TEXAS AND POINTS EASTWARD...HOWEVER THE PROGGED
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES PRECIP-WISE. FOR TONIGHT UPPER LIFT WILL INCREASE IN
RESPONSE TO DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. LIGHT WINDS
WILL VEER OUT OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AIDING IN THE TRANSPORT OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET WELL
EAST OF THE AREA WILL ALSO HELP TO DRAW IN ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ALTHOUGH BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR WELL
EAST OF THE AMA CWA. NONETHELESS PROGGED PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND
0.75 INCHES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY SATURDAY MORNING.
INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE MODEST...SO ONLY EXPECT
ISOLATED STORMS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL DIG INTO NORTHWESTERN OLD MEXICO LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE LIFTING INTO WEST TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL FOCUS THE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS AND
MUCH OF OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER STILL EXPECT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE SATURDAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES END BY
EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT A WARM DAY SATURDAY AS DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHWEST WINDS PUSH HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...
AN UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL CARVE OUT AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...MAKING FOR A NOTICEABLE COOL
DOWN SUNDAY. IN ADDITION BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
EVEN COOLER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 50S.
ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING...STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER JET AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING CAN BE ENOUGH
TO SQUEEZE OUT A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

THIS TROUGH WILL LIFT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL PLACE
THE REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
IN TIME FOR THE BIG TRAVEL DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE ADVANCES
EASTWARD. AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT NOTED...THE ECMWF IS TRENDING TOWARD
THE WARMER GFS SOLUTION IN THAT THE BULK OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL STAY
WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A DRY AND MILD
THANKSGIVING.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/05






000
FXUS64 KAMA 212128
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
328 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THIS LOW WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER OVER MUCH OF TEXAS AND POINTS EASTWARD...HOWEVER THE PROGGED
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES PRECIP-WISE. FOR TONIGHT UPPER LIFT WILL INCREASE IN
RESPONSE TO DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. LIGHT WINDS
WILL VEER OUT OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AIDING IN THE TRANSPORT OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET WELL
EAST OF THE AREA WILL ALSO HELP TO DRAW IN ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ALTHOUGH BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR WELL
EAST OF THE AMA CWA. NONETHELESS PROGGED PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND
0.75 INCHES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY SATURDAY MORNING.
INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE MODEST...SO ONLY EXPECT
ISOLATED STORMS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL DIG INTO NORTHWESTERN OLD MEXICO LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE LIFTING INTO WEST TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL FOCUS THE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS AND
MUCH OF OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER STILL EXPECT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE SATURDAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES END BY
EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT A WARM DAY SATURDAY AS DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHWEST WINDS PUSH HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...
AN UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL CARVE OUT AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...MAKING FOR A NOTICEABLE COOL
DOWN SUNDAY. IN ADDITION BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
EVEN COOLER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 50S.
ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING...STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER JET AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING CAN BE ENOUGH
TO SQUEEZE OUT A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

THIS TROUGH WILL LIFT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL PLACE
THE REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
IN TIME FOR THE BIG TRAVEL DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE ADVANCES
EASTWARD. AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT NOTED...THE ECMWF IS TRENDING TOWARD
THE WARMER GFS SOLUTION IN THAT THE BULK OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL STAY
WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A DRY AND MILD
THANKSGIVING.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/05







000
FXUS64 KAMA 211743
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1143 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...HOWEVER SOME LOW
CLOUDS OR AREAS OF FOG PRODUCE MVFR VISIBILITIES CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT AT THE THREE TAF SITES BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z
SATURDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS 5 KNOTS OR LESS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 18Z TODAY...AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z TO 16Z SATURDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 516 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...
SOME FOG WITH VISIBILITIES IN THE MVFR RANGE SHOULD BE FOUND AROUND
THE AMA TAF SITE FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THIS FORECAST. DO NOT
BELIEVE THAT FOG WILL VISIT THE DHT OR GUY TAF SITES. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO SKIES WILL BE VFR ONCE
THE FOG LIFTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY PICK A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT
SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS. SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT THE AMA TAF SITE LATE IN THIS FORECAST...BUT HAVE NOT ADDED IT AT
THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG AND FREEZING FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES EARLY
THIS MORNING. EARLIER WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA
HAS BEEN STUNTED BY A TRANSITION TO LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN MOST
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE NOW IN PLACE AND GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...STARTING TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP. WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS A FEW DEGREES OR LESS ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN
PANHANDLES...WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF FOG/FREEZING FOG FOR MOST OF
THE AREA THROUGH MID-MORNING.

A FAIRLY COMPACT BUT POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN
CA WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS AZ TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS...A LEE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN MODESTLY THROUGH THE DAY...BRINGING A
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS BY AFTERNOON. THIS SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL SPELL SEVERAL DEGREES OF
WARMING FROM YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID
50S NORTHEAST TO MID 60S SOUTHWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO TONIGHT THEN ACROSS TX ON SATURDAY...WITH THE SOUTHERLY
TRACK KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
PANHANDLES. HOWEVER THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE MAY GET CLIPPED
BY SOME SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THE STRONGER INSTABILITY AND ATTENDANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR MOST OF THE CWA...THE MAIN
STORY ON SATURDAY WILL BE A CONTINUED WARMING TREND. SOUTHWEST
BREEZES WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT IN RESPONSE TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS AHEAD
OF A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...AND THIS DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD PUSH
HIGH TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

SATURDAY WILL MARK THE END OF THE RECENT WARMING TREND...AS A COLD
FRONT WILL SURGE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL LIKELY FALL BACK INTO
THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO NEAR 60 SOUTHEAST...ALTHOUGH BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ADD SOME CHILL TO THE AIR. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE LACKING FOR ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH FAIRLY STRONG FORCING WILL IMPACT THE AREA AS AN
UPPER JET AND TROUGH DIG SOUTHEAST. WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES WHERE UPPER DYNAMICS AND
STRONGEST LOW TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING LOOK TO LINE UP
BEST...WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT MEASURABLE RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...WILL CARRY SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND
FLURRIES WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP APPEARS LOWER.
THE CHANCES FOR ANY SUCH LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BY LATE
SUNDAY EVENING.

AN AMPLIFIED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...YIELDING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. HEIGHTS WILL RISE BY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PUSHES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC/WEST COAST
UPPER RIDGE NUDGES EASTWARD. THUS MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS STILL LOOK
ON TRACK FOR THE BIG TRAVEL DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH MANY LOCATIONS
LIKELY REBOUNDING INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY AND BEYOND REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE AT THIS POINT AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO LACK CONSISTENCY FOR THIS PERIOD. THE LATEST RUN
OF THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION OF THE PAST FEW
DAYS...PAINTING A MUCH WARMER AND DRY SCENARIO COMPARED TO ITS
PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH SLAMMED AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH ON THANKSGIVING
DAY. IN FACT...THIS LATEST ECMWF RUN KEEPS THE COLD AIR WELL TO OUR
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY AND GO WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS ON TEMPERATURES UNTIL SOLUTIONS
START TO STABILIZE FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/05






000
FXUS64 KAMA 211743
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1143 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...HOWEVER SOME LOW
CLOUDS OR AREAS OF FOG PRODUCE MVFR VISIBILITIES CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT AT THE THREE TAF SITES BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z
SATURDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS 5 KNOTS OR LESS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 18Z TODAY...AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z TO 16Z SATURDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 516 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...
SOME FOG WITH VISIBILITIES IN THE MVFR RANGE SHOULD BE FOUND AROUND
THE AMA TAF SITE FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THIS FORECAST. DO NOT
BELIEVE THAT FOG WILL VISIT THE DHT OR GUY TAF SITES. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO SKIES WILL BE VFR ONCE
THE FOG LIFTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY PICK A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT
SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS. SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT THE AMA TAF SITE LATE IN THIS FORECAST...BUT HAVE NOT ADDED IT AT
THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG AND FREEZING FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES EARLY
THIS MORNING. EARLIER WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA
HAS BEEN STUNTED BY A TRANSITION TO LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN MOST
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE NOW IN PLACE AND GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...STARTING TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP. WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS A FEW DEGREES OR LESS ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN
PANHANDLES...WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF FOG/FREEZING FOG FOR MOST OF
THE AREA THROUGH MID-MORNING.

A FAIRLY COMPACT BUT POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN
CA WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS AZ TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS...A LEE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN MODESTLY THROUGH THE DAY...BRINGING A
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS BY AFTERNOON. THIS SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL SPELL SEVERAL DEGREES OF
WARMING FROM YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID
50S NORTHEAST TO MID 60S SOUTHWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO TONIGHT THEN ACROSS TX ON SATURDAY...WITH THE SOUTHERLY
TRACK KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
PANHANDLES. HOWEVER THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE MAY GET CLIPPED
BY SOME SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THE STRONGER INSTABILITY AND ATTENDANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR MOST OF THE CWA...THE MAIN
STORY ON SATURDAY WILL BE A CONTINUED WARMING TREND. SOUTHWEST
BREEZES WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT IN RESPONSE TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS AHEAD
OF A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...AND THIS DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD PUSH
HIGH TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

SATURDAY WILL MARK THE END OF THE RECENT WARMING TREND...AS A COLD
FRONT WILL SURGE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL LIKELY FALL BACK INTO
THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO NEAR 60 SOUTHEAST...ALTHOUGH BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ADD SOME CHILL TO THE AIR. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE LACKING FOR ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH FAIRLY STRONG FORCING WILL IMPACT THE AREA AS AN
UPPER JET AND TROUGH DIG SOUTHEAST. WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES WHERE UPPER DYNAMICS AND
STRONGEST LOW TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING LOOK TO LINE UP
BEST...WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT MEASURABLE RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...WILL CARRY SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND
FLURRIES WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP APPEARS LOWER.
THE CHANCES FOR ANY SUCH LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BY LATE
SUNDAY EVENING.

AN AMPLIFIED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...YIELDING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. HEIGHTS WILL RISE BY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PUSHES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC/WEST COAST
UPPER RIDGE NUDGES EASTWARD. THUS MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS STILL LOOK
ON TRACK FOR THE BIG TRAVEL DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH MANY LOCATIONS
LIKELY REBOUNDING INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY AND BEYOND REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE AT THIS POINT AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO LACK CONSISTENCY FOR THIS PERIOD. THE LATEST RUN
OF THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION OF THE PAST FEW
DAYS...PAINTING A MUCH WARMER AND DRY SCENARIO COMPARED TO ITS
PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH SLAMMED AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH ON THANKSGIVING
DAY. IN FACT...THIS LATEST ECMWF RUN KEEPS THE COLD AIR WELL TO OUR
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY AND GO WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS ON TEMPERATURES UNTIL SOLUTIONS
START TO STABILIZE FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/05







000
FXUS64 KAMA 211116 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
516 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
SOME FOG WITH VISIBILITIES IN THE MVFR RANGE SHOULD BE FOUND AROUND
THE AMA TAF SITE FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THIS FORECAST. DO NOT
BELIEVE THAT FOG WILL VISIT THE DHT OR GUY TAF SITES. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO SKIES WILL BE VFR ONCE
THE FOG LIFTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY PICK A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT
SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS. SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT THE AMA TAF SITE LATE IN THIS FORECAST...BUT HAVE NOT ADDED IT AT
THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG AND FREEZING FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES EARLY
THIS MORNING. EARLIER WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA
HAS BEEN STUNTED BY A TRANSITION TO LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN MOST
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE NOW IN PLACE AND GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...STARTING TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP. WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS A FEW DEGREES OR LESS ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN
PANHANDLES...WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF FOG/FREEZING FOG FOR MOST OF
THE AREA THROUGH MID-MORNING.

A FAIRLY COMPACT BUT POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN
CA WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS AZ TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS...A LEE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN MODESTLY THROUGH THE DAY...BRINGING A
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS BY AFTERNOON. THIS SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL SPELL SEVERAL DEGREES OF
WARMING FROM YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID
50S NORTHEAST TO MID 60S SOUTHWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO TONIGHT THEN ACROSS TX ON SATURDAY...WITH THE SOUTHERLY
TRACK KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
PANHANDLES. HOWEVER THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE MAY GET CLIPPED
BY SOME SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THE STRONGER INSTABILITY AND ATTENDANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR MOST OF THE CWA...THE MAIN
STORY ON SATURDAY WILL BE A CONTINUED WARMING TREND. SOUTHWEST
BREEZES WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT IN RESPONSE TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS AHEAD
OF A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...AND THIS DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD PUSH
HIGH TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

SATURDAY WILL MARK THE END OF THE RECENT WARMING TREND...AS A COLD
FRONT WILL SURGE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL LIKELY FALL BACK INTO
THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO NEAR 60 SOUTHEAST...ALTHOUGH BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ADD SOME CHILL TO THE AIR. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE LACKING FOR ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH FAIRLY STRONG FORCING WILL IMPACT THE AREA AS AN
UPPER JET AND TROUGH DIG SOUTHEAST. WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES WHERE UPPER DYNAMICS AND
STRONGEST LOW TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING LOOK TO LINE UP
BEST...WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT MEASURABLE RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...WILL CARRY SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND
FLURRIES WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP APPEARS LOWER.
THE CHANCES FOR ANY SUCH LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BY LATE
SUNDAY EVENING.

AN AMPLIFIED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...YIELDING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. HEIGHTS WILL RISE BY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PUSHES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC/WEST COAST
UPPER RIDGE NUDGES EASTWARD. THUS MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS STILL LOOK
ON TRACK FOR THE BIG TRAVEL DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH MANY LOCATIONS
LIKELY REBOUNDING INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY AND BEYOND REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE AT THIS POINT AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO LACK CONSISTENCY FOR THIS PERIOD. THE LATEST RUN
OF THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION OF THE PAST FEW
DAYS...PAINTING A MUCH WARMER AND DRY SCENARIO COMPARED TO ITS
PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH SLAMMED AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH ON THANKSGIVING
DAY. IN FACT...THIS LATEST ECMWF RUN KEEPS THE COLD AIR WELL TO OUR
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY AND GO WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS ON TEMPERATURES UNTIL SOLUTIONS
START TO STABILIZE FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/08






000
FXUS64 KAMA 211000
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
400 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG AND FREEZING FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES EARLY
THIS MORNING. EARLIER WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA
HAS BEEN STUNTED BY A TRANSITION TO LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN MOST
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE NOW IN PLACE AND GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...STARTING TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP. WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS A FEW DEGREES OR LESS ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN
PANHANDLES...WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF FOG/FREEZING FOG FOR MOST OF
THE AREA THROUGH MID-MORNING.

A FAIRLY COMPACT BUT POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN
CA WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS AZ TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS...A LEE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN MODESTLY THROUGH THE DAY...BRINGING A
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS BY AFTERNOON. THIS SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL SPELL SEVERAL DEGREES OF
WARMING FROM YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID
50S NORTHEAST TO MID 60S SOUTHWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO TONIGHT THEN ACROSS TX ON SATURDAY...WITH THE SOUTHERLY
TRACK KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
PANHANDLES. HOWEVER THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE MAY GET CLIPPED
BY SOME SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THE STRONGER INSTABILITY AND ATTENDANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR MOST OF THE CWA...THE MAIN
STORY ON SATURDAY WILL BE A CONTINUED WARMING TREND. SOUTHWEST
BREEZES WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT IN RESPONSE TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS AHEAD
OF A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...AND THIS DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD PUSH
HIGH TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

SATURDAY WILL MARK THE END OF THE RECENT WARMING TREND...AS A COLD
FRONT WILL SURGE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL LIKELY FALL BACK INTO
THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO NEAR 60 SOUTHEAST...ALTHOUGH BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ADD SOME CHILL TO THE AIR. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE LACKING FOR ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH FAIRLY STRONG FORCING WILL IMPACT THE AREA AS AN
UPPER JET AND TROUGH DIG SOUTHEAST. WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES WHERE UPPER DYNAMICS AND
STRONGEST LOW TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING LOOK TO LINE UP
BEST...WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT MEASURABLE RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...WILL CARRY SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND
FLURRIES WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP APPEARS LOWER.
THE CHANCES FOR ANY SUCH LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BY LATE
SUNDAY EVENING.

AN AMPLIFIED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...YIELDING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. HEIGHTS WILL RISE BY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PUSHES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC/WEST COAST
UPPER RIDGE NUDGES EASTWARD. THUS MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS STILL LOOK
ON TRACK FOR THE BIG TRAVEL DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH MANY LOCATIONS
LIKELY REBOUNDING INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY AND BEYOND REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE AT THIS POINT AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO LACK CONSISTENCY FOR THIS PERIOD. THE LATEST RUN
OF THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION OF THE PAST FEW
DAYS...PAINTING A MUCH WARMER AND DRY SCENARIO COMPARED TO ITS
PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH SLAMMED AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH ON THANKSGIVING
DAY. IN FACT...THIS LATEST ECMWF RUN KEEPS THE COLD AIR WELL TO OUR
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY AND GO WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS ON TEMPERATURES UNTIL SOLUTIONS
START TO STABILIZE FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

KB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                61  39  67  36  51 /   0  10  10   5  10
BEAVER OK                  54  35  65  36  52 /   0  10  10   5  10
BOISE CITY OK              57  31  66  33  48 /   0   0   0   5  20
BORGER TX                  60  41  67  38  51 /   0  10  10   5  10
BOYS RANCH TX              63  37  68  36  53 /   0   5  10   5  20
CANYON TX                  65  40  68  35  53 /   0  10  10   5  10
CLARENDON TX               60  41  66  38  59 /   0  20  20   5  10
DALHART TX                 60  29  65  31  48 /   0   5   5   0  20
GUYMON OK                  58  31  66  33  50 /   0   5   5   0  10
HEREFORD TX                66  39  67  36  54 /   0  10  10   5  20
LIPSCOMB TX                55  39  65  39  56 /   5  10  10   5  10
PAMPA TX                   60  40  64  37  50 /   0  10  10   5  10
SHAMROCK TX                58  41  66  39  59 /   5  30  30  10  10
WELLINGTON TX              58  42  66  40  61 /   5  40  40  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/08






000
FXUS64 KAMA 211000
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
400 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG AND FREEZING FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES EARLY
THIS MORNING. EARLIER WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA
HAS BEEN STUNTED BY A TRANSITION TO LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN MOST
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE NOW IN PLACE AND GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...STARTING TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP. WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS A FEW DEGREES OR LESS ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN
PANHANDLES...WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF FOG/FREEZING FOG FOR MOST OF
THE AREA THROUGH MID-MORNING.

A FAIRLY COMPACT BUT POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN
CA WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS AZ TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS...A LEE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN MODESTLY THROUGH THE DAY...BRINGING A
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS BY AFTERNOON. THIS SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL SPELL SEVERAL DEGREES OF
WARMING FROM YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID
50S NORTHEAST TO MID 60S SOUTHWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO TONIGHT THEN ACROSS TX ON SATURDAY...WITH THE SOUTHERLY
TRACK KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
PANHANDLES. HOWEVER THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE MAY GET CLIPPED
BY SOME SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THE STRONGER INSTABILITY AND ATTENDANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR MOST OF THE CWA...THE MAIN
STORY ON SATURDAY WILL BE A CONTINUED WARMING TREND. SOUTHWEST
BREEZES WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT IN RESPONSE TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS AHEAD
OF A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...AND THIS DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD PUSH
HIGH TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

SATURDAY WILL MARK THE END OF THE RECENT WARMING TREND...AS A COLD
FRONT WILL SURGE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL LIKELY FALL BACK INTO
THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO NEAR 60 SOUTHEAST...ALTHOUGH BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ADD SOME CHILL TO THE AIR. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE LACKING FOR ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH FAIRLY STRONG FORCING WILL IMPACT THE AREA AS AN
UPPER JET AND TROUGH DIG SOUTHEAST. WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES WHERE UPPER DYNAMICS AND
STRONGEST LOW TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING LOOK TO LINE UP
BEST...WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT MEASURABLE RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...WILL CARRY SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND
FLURRIES WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP APPEARS LOWER.
THE CHANCES FOR ANY SUCH LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BY LATE
SUNDAY EVENING.

AN AMPLIFIED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...YIELDING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. HEIGHTS WILL RISE BY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PUSHES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC/WEST COAST
UPPER RIDGE NUDGES EASTWARD. THUS MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS STILL LOOK
ON TRACK FOR THE BIG TRAVEL DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH MANY LOCATIONS
LIKELY REBOUNDING INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY AND BEYOND REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE AT THIS POINT AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO LACK CONSISTENCY FOR THIS PERIOD. THE LATEST RUN
OF THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION OF THE PAST FEW
DAYS...PAINTING A MUCH WARMER AND DRY SCENARIO COMPARED TO ITS
PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH SLAMMED AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH ON THANKSGIVING
DAY. IN FACT...THIS LATEST ECMWF RUN KEEPS THE COLD AIR WELL TO OUR
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY AND GO WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS ON TEMPERATURES UNTIL SOLUTIONS
START TO STABILIZE FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

KB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                61  39  67  36  51 /   0  10  10   5  10
BEAVER OK                  54  35  65  36  52 /   0  10  10   5  10
BOISE CITY OK              57  31  66  33  48 /   0   0   0   5  20
BORGER TX                  60  41  67  38  51 /   0  10  10   5  10
BOYS RANCH TX              63  37  68  36  53 /   0   5  10   5  20
CANYON TX                  65  40  68  35  53 /   0  10  10   5  10
CLARENDON TX               60  41  66  38  59 /   0  20  20   5  10
DALHART TX                 60  29  65  31  48 /   0   5   5   0  20
GUYMON OK                  58  31  66  33  50 /   0   5   5   0  10
HEREFORD TX                66  39  67  36  54 /   0  10  10   5  20
LIPSCOMB TX                55  39  65  39  56 /   5  10  10   5  10
PAMPA TX                   60  40  64  37  50 /   0  10  10   5  10
SHAMROCK TX                58  41  66  39  59 /   5  30  30  10  10
WELLINGTON TX              58  42  66  40  61 /   5  40  40  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/08







000
FXUS64 KAMA 210505 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1105 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...A LITTLE LESS CONFIDENT IN DENSE FOG TO
DEVELOP...BUT STILL EXPECT KGUY AND KAMA TO SEE VISIBILITIES DROP TO
AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS. KDHT SHOULD STAY CLEAR OF BR OR FZFG. WITH
FREEZING TEMPERATURES...FZFG WILL BE A CONCERN WHERE DENSE FOG
DEVELOPS. IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG...VERTICAL VISIBILITIES COULD ALSO
DROP CEILINGS TO IFR LEVELS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DRY DISIPATE ANY FOG BY MID-MORNING.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 925 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

UPDATE...
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND DEW POINTS. MAINLY
BUMPED LOWS UP ABOUT 3 DEGREES AND INCREASED DEW POINTS BY A FEW
DEGREES TO MATCH LATEST GUIDANCE VALUES. STILL THINKING PATCHY FOG
AND FREEZING FOG WILL DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA TONIGHT...BUT COULD SEE SOME EXTEND INTO WESTERN COUNTIES. NO
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR
TRENDS OVERNIGHT.

NF

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS TO START
THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. THIS SHOULD LAST THROUGH APPROX 09Z TO
12Z...WHEN BR OR FG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW FREEZING BY THAT POINT...THIS WOULD BE FREEZING
FOG. THE DENSEST FOG SHOULD STAY EAST OF THE TAF SITES...THOUGH KAMA
AND KGUY COULD SEE IFR VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1 TO 2 MILES. KDHT
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES
SHOULD RETURN BEFORE 18Z.

NF

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM CENTERS ON
THE FOG/FREEZING FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT.

A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. A PASSING UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALLOWED
FOR THE VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA EARLIER TODAY TO
DISSIPATE. HOWEVER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATER THIS
EVENING AS WINDS VEER AROUND OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG
AND FREEZING FOG. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THOUGH...WITH THE EASTERN PANHANDLES MAINLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THIS SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW. SO WHILE THE EASTERN ZONES WILL BE THE
MOST FAVORED AREA FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A RATHER SHALLOW MOIST LAYER OVER ALL OF THE AREA.
SO HAVE GONE AND EXPANDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG/FREEZING FOG TO
ENCOMPASS ALL OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE SHALLOWNESS OF THE MOIST LAYER
AND THE LACK OF GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT...THE POSSIBILITY OF
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE IS LOW.

ANY LINGERING FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING FRIDAY AS SURFACE
WINDS FURTHER VEER OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALSO HELP
TO PUSH TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES...WHERE HIGHS IN THE 50S
CAN BE EXPECTED AREA WIDE. MEANWHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WILL DIG SOUTHWARD...OVER NORTHWESTERN OLD MEXICO
TOWARD THE EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME IN SLOWER WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT STILL TAKES THE LOW TOO FAR SOUTH FOR IT TO HAVE MUCH OF
AN IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES. THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE STILL STANDS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING ANY ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH...ALTHOUGH NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS TO
OCCUR WILL BE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY AND THE NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL ACQUIRE A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
LIFTS OVER EAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
TRACK OF THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL PLACE AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER WELL EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AMA CWA. HOWEVER
DESPITE THIS...DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET IN EAST TEXAS CAN SUPPORT
A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. SEVERE WEATHER DOES
NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH OF A THREAT GIVEN THE LOW INSTABILITY INDICATED
ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

SINCE THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE AREA QUICKLY...ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DEEPEN AS IT SLIDES EAST
SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH WILL
KNOCK HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK FROM THE 60S SATURDAY TO THE UPPER 40S
TO THE UPPER 50S SUNDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL JET ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE LIFT FROM THIS UPPER JET AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
MAY SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT...DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD PREVENT MUCH IF
ANY PRECIP FROM REACHING THE GROUND.

AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...KEEPING THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THIS WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
THE UPPER FLOW BACKS TO THE WEST MID WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
GREATLY DIVERGE FROM THIS POINT WHERE THE GFS MOVES THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS THIS RIDGE OUT WEST.
THUS THE GFS SOLUTION IS QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THE ECMWF AS THE
ECMWF INDICATES A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR IN TIME FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.
THE ECMWF ALSO INDICATES A POSSIBILITY FOR LIGHT SNOW THANKSGIVING
NIGHT. SINCE THIS IS A WEEK OUT...OPTED TO GO WITH A MODEL BLEND WRT
POPS BUT DID LOWER HIGHS A FEW DEGREES.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/17







000
FXUS64 KAMA 210505 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1105 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...A LITTLE LESS CONFIDENT IN DENSE FOG TO
DEVELOP...BUT STILL EXPECT KGUY AND KAMA TO SEE VISIBILITIES DROP TO
AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS. KDHT SHOULD STAY CLEAR OF BR OR FZFG. WITH
FREEZING TEMPERATURES...FZFG WILL BE A CONCERN WHERE DENSE FOG
DEVELOPS. IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG...VERTICAL VISIBILITIES COULD ALSO
DROP CEILINGS TO IFR LEVELS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DRY DISIPATE ANY FOG BY MID-MORNING.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 925 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

UPDATE...
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND DEW POINTS. MAINLY
BUMPED LOWS UP ABOUT 3 DEGREES AND INCREASED DEW POINTS BY A FEW
DEGREES TO MATCH LATEST GUIDANCE VALUES. STILL THINKING PATCHY FOG
AND FREEZING FOG WILL DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA TONIGHT...BUT COULD SEE SOME EXTEND INTO WESTERN COUNTIES. NO
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR
TRENDS OVERNIGHT.

NF

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS TO START
THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. THIS SHOULD LAST THROUGH APPROX 09Z TO
12Z...WHEN BR OR FG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW FREEZING BY THAT POINT...THIS WOULD BE FREEZING
FOG. THE DENSEST FOG SHOULD STAY EAST OF THE TAF SITES...THOUGH KAMA
AND KGUY COULD SEE IFR VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1 TO 2 MILES. KDHT
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES
SHOULD RETURN BEFORE 18Z.

NF

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM CENTERS ON
THE FOG/FREEZING FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT.

A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. A PASSING UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALLOWED
FOR THE VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA EARLIER TODAY TO
DISSIPATE. HOWEVER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATER THIS
EVENING AS WINDS VEER AROUND OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG
AND FREEZING FOG. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THOUGH...WITH THE EASTERN PANHANDLES MAINLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THIS SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW. SO WHILE THE EASTERN ZONES WILL BE THE
MOST FAVORED AREA FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A RATHER SHALLOW MOIST LAYER OVER ALL OF THE AREA.
SO HAVE GONE AND EXPANDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG/FREEZING FOG TO
ENCOMPASS ALL OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE SHALLOWNESS OF THE MOIST LAYER
AND THE LACK OF GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT...THE POSSIBILITY OF
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE IS LOW.

ANY LINGERING FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING FRIDAY AS SURFACE
WINDS FURTHER VEER OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALSO HELP
TO PUSH TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES...WHERE HIGHS IN THE 50S
CAN BE EXPECTED AREA WIDE. MEANWHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WILL DIG SOUTHWARD...OVER NORTHWESTERN OLD MEXICO
TOWARD THE EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME IN SLOWER WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT STILL TAKES THE LOW TOO FAR SOUTH FOR IT TO HAVE MUCH OF
AN IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES. THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE STILL STANDS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING ANY ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH...ALTHOUGH NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS TO
OCCUR WILL BE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY AND THE NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL ACQUIRE A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
LIFTS OVER EAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
TRACK OF THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL PLACE AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER WELL EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AMA CWA. HOWEVER
DESPITE THIS...DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET IN EAST TEXAS CAN SUPPORT
A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. SEVERE WEATHER DOES
NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH OF A THREAT GIVEN THE LOW INSTABILITY INDICATED
ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

SINCE THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE AREA QUICKLY...ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DEEPEN AS IT SLIDES EAST
SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH WILL
KNOCK HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK FROM THE 60S SATURDAY TO THE UPPER 40S
TO THE UPPER 50S SUNDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL JET ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE LIFT FROM THIS UPPER JET AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
MAY SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT...DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD PREVENT MUCH IF
ANY PRECIP FROM REACHING THE GROUND.

AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...KEEPING THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THIS WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
THE UPPER FLOW BACKS TO THE WEST MID WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
GREATLY DIVERGE FROM THIS POINT WHERE THE GFS MOVES THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS THIS RIDGE OUT WEST.
THUS THE GFS SOLUTION IS QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THE ECMWF AS THE
ECMWF INDICATES A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR IN TIME FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.
THE ECMWF ALSO INDICATES A POSSIBILITY FOR LIGHT SNOW THANKSGIVING
NIGHT. SINCE THIS IS A WEEK OUT...OPTED TO GO WITH A MODEL BLEND WRT
POPS BUT DID LOWER HIGHS A FEW DEGREES.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/17






000
FXUS64 KAMA 210325 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
925 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND DEW POINTS. MAINLY
BUMPED LOWS UP ABOUT 3 DEGREES AND INCREASED DEW POINTS BY A FEW
DEGREES TO MATCH LATEST GUIDANCE VALUES. STILL THINKING PATCHY FOG
AND FREEZING FOG WILL DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA TONIGHT...BUT COULD SEE SOME EXTEND INTO WESTERN COUNTIES. NO
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR
TRENDS OVERNIGHT.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS TO START
THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. THIS SHOULD LAST THROUGH APPROX 09Z TO
12Z...WHEN BR OR FG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW FREEZING BY THAT POINT...THIS WOULD BE FREEZING
FOG. THE DENSEST FOG SHOULD STAY EAST OF THE TAF SITES...THOUGH KAMA
AND KGUY COULD SEE IFR VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1 TO 2 MILES. KDHT
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES
SHOULD RETURN BEFORE 18Z.

NF

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM CENTERS ON
THE FOG/FREEZING FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT.

A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. A PASSING UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALLOWED
FOR THE VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA EARLIER TODAY TO
DISSIPATE. HOWEVER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATER THIS
EVENING AS WINDS VEER AROUND OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG
AND FREEZING FOG. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THOUGH...WITH THE EASTERN PANHANDLES MAINLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THIS SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW. SO WHILE THE EASTERN ZONES WILL BE THE
MOST FAVORED AREA FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A RATHER SHALLOW MOIST LAYER OVER ALL OF THE AREA.
SO HAVE GONE AND EXPANDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG/FREEZING FOG TO
ENCOMPASS ALL OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE SHALLOWNESS OF THE MOIST LAYER
AND THE LACK OF GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT...THE POSSIBILITY OF
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE IS LOW.

ANY LINGERING FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING FRIDAY AS SURFACE
WINDS FURTHER VEER OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALSO HELP
TO PUSH TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES...WHERE HIGHS IN THE 50S
CAN BE EXPECTED AREA WIDE. MEANWHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WILL DIG SOUTHWARD...OVER NORTHWESTERN OLD MEXICO
TOWARD THE EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME IN SLOWER WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT STILL TAKES THE LOW TOO FAR SOUTH FOR IT TO HAVE MUCH OF
AN IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES. THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE STILL STANDS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING ANY ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH...ALTHOUGH NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS TO
OCCUR WILL BE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY AND THE NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL ACQUIRE A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
LIFTS OVER EAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
TRACK OF THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL PLACE AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER WELL EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AMA CWA. HOWEVER
DESPITE THIS...DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET IN EAST TEXAS CAN SUPPORT
A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. SEVERE WEATHER DOES
NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH OF A THREAT GIVEN THE LOW INSTABILITY INDICATED
ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

SINCE THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE AREA QUICKLY...ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DEEPEN AS IT SLIDES EAST
SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH WILL
KNOCK HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK FROM THE 60S SATURDAY TO THE UPPER 40S
TO THE UPPER 50S SUNDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL JET ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE LIFT FROM THIS UPPER JET AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
MAY SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT...DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD PREVENT MUCH IF
ANY PRECIP FROM REACHING THE GROUND.

AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...KEEPING THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THIS WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
THE UPPER FLOW BACKS TO THE WEST MID WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
GREATLY DIVERGE FROM THIS POINT WHERE THE GFS MOVES THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS THIS RIDGE OUT WEST.
THUS THE GFS SOLUTION IS QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THE ECMWF AS THE
ECMWF INDICATES A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR IN TIME FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.
THE ECMWF ALSO INDICATES A POSSIBILITY FOR LIGHT SNOW THANKSGIVING
NIGHT. SINCE THIS IS A WEEK OUT...OPTED TO GO WITH A MODEL BLEND WRT
POPS BUT DID LOWER HIGHS A FEW DEGREES.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/17






000
FXUS64 KAMA 210325 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
925 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND DEW POINTS. MAINLY
BUMPED LOWS UP ABOUT 3 DEGREES AND INCREASED DEW POINTS BY A FEW
DEGREES TO MATCH LATEST GUIDANCE VALUES. STILL THINKING PATCHY FOG
AND FREEZING FOG WILL DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA TONIGHT...BUT COULD SEE SOME EXTEND INTO WESTERN COUNTIES. NO
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR
TRENDS OVERNIGHT.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS TO START
THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. THIS SHOULD LAST THROUGH APPROX 09Z TO
12Z...WHEN BR OR FG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW FREEZING BY THAT POINT...THIS WOULD BE FREEZING
FOG. THE DENSEST FOG SHOULD STAY EAST OF THE TAF SITES...THOUGH KAMA
AND KGUY COULD SEE IFR VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1 TO 2 MILES. KDHT
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES
SHOULD RETURN BEFORE 18Z.

NF

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM CENTERS ON
THE FOG/FREEZING FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT.

A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. A PASSING UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALLOWED
FOR THE VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA EARLIER TODAY TO
DISSIPATE. HOWEVER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATER THIS
EVENING AS WINDS VEER AROUND OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG
AND FREEZING FOG. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THOUGH...WITH THE EASTERN PANHANDLES MAINLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THIS SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW. SO WHILE THE EASTERN ZONES WILL BE THE
MOST FAVORED AREA FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A RATHER SHALLOW MOIST LAYER OVER ALL OF THE AREA.
SO HAVE GONE AND EXPANDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG/FREEZING FOG TO
ENCOMPASS ALL OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE SHALLOWNESS OF THE MOIST LAYER
AND THE LACK OF GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT...THE POSSIBILITY OF
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE IS LOW.

ANY LINGERING FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING FRIDAY AS SURFACE
WINDS FURTHER VEER OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALSO HELP
TO PUSH TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES...WHERE HIGHS IN THE 50S
CAN BE EXPECTED AREA WIDE. MEANWHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WILL DIG SOUTHWARD...OVER NORTHWESTERN OLD MEXICO
TOWARD THE EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME IN SLOWER WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT STILL TAKES THE LOW TOO FAR SOUTH FOR IT TO HAVE MUCH OF
AN IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES. THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE STILL STANDS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING ANY ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH...ALTHOUGH NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS TO
OCCUR WILL BE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY AND THE NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL ACQUIRE A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
LIFTS OVER EAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
TRACK OF THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL PLACE AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER WELL EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AMA CWA. HOWEVER
DESPITE THIS...DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET IN EAST TEXAS CAN SUPPORT
A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. SEVERE WEATHER DOES
NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH OF A THREAT GIVEN THE LOW INSTABILITY INDICATED
ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

SINCE THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE AREA QUICKLY...ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DEEPEN AS IT SLIDES EAST
SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH WILL
KNOCK HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK FROM THE 60S SATURDAY TO THE UPPER 40S
TO THE UPPER 50S SUNDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL JET ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE LIFT FROM THIS UPPER JET AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
MAY SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT...DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD PREVENT MUCH IF
ANY PRECIP FROM REACHING THE GROUND.

AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...KEEPING THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THIS WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
THE UPPER FLOW BACKS TO THE WEST MID WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
GREATLY DIVERGE FROM THIS POINT WHERE THE GFS MOVES THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS THIS RIDGE OUT WEST.
THUS THE GFS SOLUTION IS QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THE ECMWF AS THE
ECMWF INDICATES A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR IN TIME FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.
THE ECMWF ALSO INDICATES A POSSIBILITY FOR LIGHT SNOW THANKSGIVING
NIGHT. SINCE THIS IS A WEEK OUT...OPTED TO GO WITH A MODEL BLEND WRT
POPS BUT DID LOWER HIGHS A FEW DEGREES.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/17







000
FXUS64 KAMA 210325 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
925 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND DEW POINTS. MAINLY
BUMPED LOWS UP ABOUT 3 DEGREES AND INCREASED DEW POINTS BY A FEW
DEGREES TO MATCH LATEST GUIDANCE VALUES. STILL THINKING PATCHY FOG
AND FREEZING FOG WILL DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA TONIGHT...BUT COULD SEE SOME EXTEND INTO WESTERN COUNTIES. NO
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR
TRENDS OVERNIGHT.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS TO START
THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. THIS SHOULD LAST THROUGH APPROX 09Z TO
12Z...WHEN BR OR FG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW FREEZING BY THAT POINT...THIS WOULD BE FREEZING
FOG. THE DENSEST FOG SHOULD STAY EAST OF THE TAF SITES...THOUGH KAMA
AND KGUY COULD SEE IFR VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1 TO 2 MILES. KDHT
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES
SHOULD RETURN BEFORE 18Z.

NF

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM CENTERS ON
THE FOG/FREEZING FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT.

A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. A PASSING UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALLOWED
FOR THE VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA EARLIER TODAY TO
DISSIPATE. HOWEVER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATER THIS
EVENING AS WINDS VEER AROUND OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG
AND FREEZING FOG. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THOUGH...WITH THE EASTERN PANHANDLES MAINLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THIS SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW. SO WHILE THE EASTERN ZONES WILL BE THE
MOST FAVORED AREA FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A RATHER SHALLOW MOIST LAYER OVER ALL OF THE AREA.
SO HAVE GONE AND EXPANDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG/FREEZING FOG TO
ENCOMPASS ALL OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE SHALLOWNESS OF THE MOIST LAYER
AND THE LACK OF GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT...THE POSSIBILITY OF
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE IS LOW.

ANY LINGERING FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING FRIDAY AS SURFACE
WINDS FURTHER VEER OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALSO HELP
TO PUSH TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES...WHERE HIGHS IN THE 50S
CAN BE EXPECTED AREA WIDE. MEANWHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WILL DIG SOUTHWARD...OVER NORTHWESTERN OLD MEXICO
TOWARD THE EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME IN SLOWER WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT STILL TAKES THE LOW TOO FAR SOUTH FOR IT TO HAVE MUCH OF
AN IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES. THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE STILL STANDS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING ANY ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH...ALTHOUGH NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS TO
OCCUR WILL BE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY AND THE NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL ACQUIRE A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
LIFTS OVER EAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
TRACK OF THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL PLACE AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER WELL EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AMA CWA. HOWEVER
DESPITE THIS...DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET IN EAST TEXAS CAN SUPPORT
A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. SEVERE WEATHER DOES
NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH OF A THREAT GIVEN THE LOW INSTABILITY INDICATED
ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

SINCE THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE AREA QUICKLY...ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DEEPEN AS IT SLIDES EAST
SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH WILL
KNOCK HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK FROM THE 60S SATURDAY TO THE UPPER 40S
TO THE UPPER 50S SUNDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL JET ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE LIFT FROM THIS UPPER JET AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
MAY SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT...DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD PREVENT MUCH IF
ANY PRECIP FROM REACHING THE GROUND.

AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...KEEPING THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THIS WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
THE UPPER FLOW BACKS TO THE WEST MID WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
GREATLY DIVERGE FROM THIS POINT WHERE THE GFS MOVES THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS THIS RIDGE OUT WEST.
THUS THE GFS SOLUTION IS QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THE ECMWF AS THE
ECMWF INDICATES A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR IN TIME FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.
THE ECMWF ALSO INDICATES A POSSIBILITY FOR LIGHT SNOW THANKSGIVING
NIGHT. SINCE THIS IS A WEEK OUT...OPTED TO GO WITH A MODEL BLEND WRT
POPS BUT DID LOWER HIGHS A FEW DEGREES.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/17







000
FXUS64 KAMA 210325 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
925 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND DEW POINTS. MAINLY
BUMPED LOWS UP ABOUT 3 DEGREES AND INCREASED DEW POINTS BY A FEW
DEGREES TO MATCH LATEST GUIDANCE VALUES. STILL THINKING PATCHY FOG
AND FREEZING FOG WILL DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA TONIGHT...BUT COULD SEE SOME EXTEND INTO WESTERN COUNTIES. NO
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR
TRENDS OVERNIGHT.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS TO START
THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. THIS SHOULD LAST THROUGH APPROX 09Z TO
12Z...WHEN BR OR FG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW FREEZING BY THAT POINT...THIS WOULD BE FREEZING
FOG. THE DENSEST FOG SHOULD STAY EAST OF THE TAF SITES...THOUGH KAMA
AND KGUY COULD SEE IFR VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1 TO 2 MILES. KDHT
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES
SHOULD RETURN BEFORE 18Z.

NF

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM CENTERS ON
THE FOG/FREEZING FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT.

A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. A PASSING UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALLOWED
FOR THE VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA EARLIER TODAY TO
DISSIPATE. HOWEVER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATER THIS
EVENING AS WINDS VEER AROUND OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG
AND FREEZING FOG. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THOUGH...WITH THE EASTERN PANHANDLES MAINLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THIS SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW. SO WHILE THE EASTERN ZONES WILL BE THE
MOST FAVORED AREA FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A RATHER SHALLOW MOIST LAYER OVER ALL OF THE AREA.
SO HAVE GONE AND EXPANDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG/FREEZING FOG TO
ENCOMPASS ALL OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE SHALLOWNESS OF THE MOIST LAYER
AND THE LACK OF GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT...THE POSSIBILITY OF
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE IS LOW.

ANY LINGERING FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING FRIDAY AS SURFACE
WINDS FURTHER VEER OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALSO HELP
TO PUSH TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES...WHERE HIGHS IN THE 50S
CAN BE EXPECTED AREA WIDE. MEANWHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WILL DIG SOUTHWARD...OVER NORTHWESTERN OLD MEXICO
TOWARD THE EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME IN SLOWER WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT STILL TAKES THE LOW TOO FAR SOUTH FOR IT TO HAVE MUCH OF
AN IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES. THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE STILL STANDS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING ANY ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH...ALTHOUGH NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS TO
OCCUR WILL BE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY AND THE NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL ACQUIRE A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
LIFTS OVER EAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
TRACK OF THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL PLACE AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER WELL EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AMA CWA. HOWEVER
DESPITE THIS...DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET IN EAST TEXAS CAN SUPPORT
A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. SEVERE WEATHER DOES
NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH OF A THREAT GIVEN THE LOW INSTABILITY INDICATED
ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

SINCE THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE AREA QUICKLY...ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DEEPEN AS IT SLIDES EAST
SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH WILL
KNOCK HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK FROM THE 60S SATURDAY TO THE UPPER 40S
TO THE UPPER 50S SUNDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL JET ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE LIFT FROM THIS UPPER JET AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
MAY SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT...DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD PREVENT MUCH IF
ANY PRECIP FROM REACHING THE GROUND.

AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...KEEPING THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THIS WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
THE UPPER FLOW BACKS TO THE WEST MID WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
GREATLY DIVERGE FROM THIS POINT WHERE THE GFS MOVES THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS THIS RIDGE OUT WEST.
THUS THE GFS SOLUTION IS QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THE ECMWF AS THE
ECMWF INDICATES A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR IN TIME FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.
THE ECMWF ALSO INDICATES A POSSIBILITY FOR LIGHT SNOW THANKSGIVING
NIGHT. SINCE THIS IS A WEEK OUT...OPTED TO GO WITH A MODEL BLEND WRT
POPS BUT DID LOWER HIGHS A FEW DEGREES.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/17






000
FXUS64 KAMA 202348 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
548 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS TO START
THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. THIS SHOULD LAST THROUGH APPROX 09Z TO
12Z...WHEN BR OR FG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW FREEZING BY THAT POINT...THIS WOULD BE FREEZING
FOG. THE DENSEST FOG SHOULD STAY EAST OF THE TAF SITES...THOUGH KAMA
AND KGUY COULD SEE IFR VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1 TO 2 MILES. KDHT
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES
SHOULD RETURN BEFORE 18Z.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM CENTERS ON
THE FOG/FREEZING FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT.

A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. A PASSING UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALLOWED
FOR THE VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA EARLIER TODAY TO
DISSIPATE. HOWEVER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATER THIS
EVENING AS WINDS VEER AROUND OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG
AND FREEZING FOG. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THOUGH...WITH THE EASTERN PANHANDLES MAINLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THIS SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW. SO WHILE THE EASTERN ZONES WILL BE THE
MOST FAVORED AREA FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A RATHER SHALLOW MOIST LAYER OVER ALL OF THE AREA.
SO HAVE GONE AND EXPANDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG/FREEZING FOG TO
ENCOMPASS ALL OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE SHALLOWNESS OF THE MOIST LAYER
AND THE LACK OF GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT...THE POSSIBILITY OF
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE IS LOW.

ANY LINGERING FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING FRIDAY AS SURFACE
WINDS FURTHER VEER OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALSO HELP
TO PUSH TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES...WHERE HIGHS IN THE 50S
CAN BE EXPECTED AREA WIDE. MEANWHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WILL DIG SOUTHWARD...OVER NORTHWESTERN OLD MEXICO
TOWARD THE EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME IN SLOWER WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT STILL TAKES THE LOW TOO FAR SOUTH FOR IT TO HAVE MUCH OF
AN IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES. THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE STILL STANDS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING ANY ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH...ALTHOUGH NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS TO
OCCUR WILL BE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY AND THE NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL ACQUIRE A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
LIFTS OVER EAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
TRACK OF THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL PLACE AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER WELL EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AMA CWA. HOWEVER
DESPITE THIS...DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET IN EAST TEXAS CAN SUPPORT
A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. SEVERE WEATHER DOES
NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH OF A THREAT GIVEN THE LOW INSTABILITY INDICATED
ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

SINCE THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE AREA QUICKLY...ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DEEPEN AS IT SLIDES EAST
SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH WILL
KNOCK HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK FROM THE 60S SATURDAY TO THE UPPER 40S
TO THE UPPER 50S SUNDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL JET ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE LIFT FROM THIS UPPER JET AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
MAY SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT...DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD PREVENT MUCH IF
ANY PRECIP FROM REACHING THE GROUND.

AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...KEEPING THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THIS WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
THE UPPER FLOW BACKS TO THE WEST MID WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
GREATLY DIVERGE FROM THIS POINT WHERE THE GFS MOVES THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS THIS RIDGE OUT WEST.
THUS THE GFS SOLUTION IS QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THE ECMWF AS THE
ECMWF INDICATES A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR IN TIME FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.
THE ECMWF ALSO INDICATES A POSSIBILITY FOR LIGHT SNOW THANKSGIVING
NIGHT. SINCE THIS IS A WEEK OUT...OPTED TO GO WITH A MODEL BLEND WRT
POPS BUT DID LOWER HIGHS A FEW DEGREES.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/17







000
FXUS64 KAMA 202348 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
548 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS TO START
THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. THIS SHOULD LAST THROUGH APPROX 09Z TO
12Z...WHEN BR OR FG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW FREEZING BY THAT POINT...THIS WOULD BE FREEZING
FOG. THE DENSEST FOG SHOULD STAY EAST OF THE TAF SITES...THOUGH KAMA
AND KGUY COULD SEE IFR VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1 TO 2 MILES. KDHT
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES
SHOULD RETURN BEFORE 18Z.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM CENTERS ON
THE FOG/FREEZING FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT.

A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. A PASSING UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALLOWED
FOR THE VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA EARLIER TODAY TO
DISSIPATE. HOWEVER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATER THIS
EVENING AS WINDS VEER AROUND OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG
AND FREEZING FOG. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THOUGH...WITH THE EASTERN PANHANDLES MAINLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THIS SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW. SO WHILE THE EASTERN ZONES WILL BE THE
MOST FAVORED AREA FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A RATHER SHALLOW MOIST LAYER OVER ALL OF THE AREA.
SO HAVE GONE AND EXPANDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG/FREEZING FOG TO
ENCOMPASS ALL OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE SHALLOWNESS OF THE MOIST LAYER
AND THE LACK OF GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT...THE POSSIBILITY OF
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE IS LOW.

ANY LINGERING FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING FRIDAY AS SURFACE
WINDS FURTHER VEER OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALSO HELP
TO PUSH TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES...WHERE HIGHS IN THE 50S
CAN BE EXPECTED AREA WIDE. MEANWHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WILL DIG SOUTHWARD...OVER NORTHWESTERN OLD MEXICO
TOWARD THE EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME IN SLOWER WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT STILL TAKES THE LOW TOO FAR SOUTH FOR IT TO HAVE MUCH OF
AN IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES. THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE STILL STANDS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING ANY ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH...ALTHOUGH NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS TO
OCCUR WILL BE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY AND THE NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL ACQUIRE A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
LIFTS OVER EAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
TRACK OF THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL PLACE AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER WELL EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AMA CWA. HOWEVER
DESPITE THIS...DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET IN EAST TEXAS CAN SUPPORT
A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. SEVERE WEATHER DOES
NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH OF A THREAT GIVEN THE LOW INSTABILITY INDICATED
ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

SINCE THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE AREA QUICKLY...ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DEEPEN AS IT SLIDES EAST
SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH WILL
KNOCK HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK FROM THE 60S SATURDAY TO THE UPPER 40S
TO THE UPPER 50S SUNDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL JET ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE LIFT FROM THIS UPPER JET AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
MAY SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT...DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD PREVENT MUCH IF
ANY PRECIP FROM REACHING THE GROUND.

AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...KEEPING THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THIS WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
THE UPPER FLOW BACKS TO THE WEST MID WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
GREATLY DIVERGE FROM THIS POINT WHERE THE GFS MOVES THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS THIS RIDGE OUT WEST.
THUS THE GFS SOLUTION IS QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THE ECMWF AS THE
ECMWF INDICATES A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR IN TIME FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.
THE ECMWF ALSO INDICATES A POSSIBILITY FOR LIGHT SNOW THANKSGIVING
NIGHT. SINCE THIS IS A WEEK OUT...OPTED TO GO WITH A MODEL BLEND WRT
POPS BUT DID LOWER HIGHS A FEW DEGREES.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/17






000
FXUS64 KAMA 202135
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
335 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM CENTERS ON
THE FOG/FREEZING FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT.

A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. A PASSING UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALLOWED
FOR THE VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA EARLIER TODAY TO
DISSIPATE. HOWEVER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATER THIS
EVENING AS WINDS VEER AROUND OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG
AND FREEZING FOG. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THOUGH...WITH THE EASTERN PANHANDLES MAINLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THIS SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW. SO WHILE THE EASTERN ZONES WILL BE THE
MOST FAVORED AREA FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A RATHER SHALLOW MOIST LAYER OVER ALL OF THE AREA.
SO HAVE GONE AND EXPANDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG/FREEZING FOG TO
ENCOMPASS ALL OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE SHALLOWNESS OF THE MOIST LAYER
AND THE LACK OF GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT...THE POSSIBILITY OF
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE IS LOW.

ANY LINGERING FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING FRIDAY AS SURFACE
WINDS FURTHER VEER OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALSO HELP
TO PUSH TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES...WHERE HIGHS IN THE 50S
CAN BE EXPECTED AREA WIDE. MEANWHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WILL DIG SOUTHWARD...OVER NORTHWESTERN OLD MEXICO
TOWARD THE EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME IN SLOWER WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT STILL TAKES THE LOW TOO FAR SOUTH FOR IT TO HAVE MUCH OF
AN IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES. THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE STILL STANDS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING ANY ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH...ALTHOUGH NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS TO
OCCUR WILL BE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY AND THE NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL ACQUIRE A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
LIFTS OVER EAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
TRACK OF THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL PLACE AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER WELL EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AMA CWA. HOWEVER
DESPITE THIS...DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET IN EAST TEXAS CAN SUPPORT
A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. SEVERE WEATHER DOES
NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH OF A THREAT GIVEN THE LOW INSTABILITY INDICATED
ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

SINCE THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE AREA QUICKLY...ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DEEPEN AS IT SLIDES EAST
SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH WILL
KNOCK HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK FROM THE 60S SATURDAY TO THE UPPER 40S
TO THE UPPER 50S SUNDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL JET ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE LIFT FROM THIS UPPER JET AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
MAY SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT...DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD PREVENT MUCH IF
ANY PRECIP FROM REACHING THE GROUND.

AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...KEEPING THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THIS WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
THE UPPER FLOW BACKS TO THE WEST MID WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
GREATLY DIVERGE FROM THIS POINT WHERE THE GFS MOVES THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS THIS RIDGE OUT WEST.
THUS THE GFS SOLUTION IS QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THE ECMWF AS THE
ECMWF INDICATES A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR IN TIME FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.
THE ECMWF ALSO INDICATES A POSSIBILITY FOR LIGHT SNOW THANKSGIVING
NIGHT. SINCE THIS IS A WEEK OUT...OPTED TO GO WITH THE SUPERBLEND WRT
POPS BUT DID LOWER HIGHS A FEW DEGREES.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/05







    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities