000
FXUS64 KAMA 241204 AAA
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
704 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/ COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST SHAPING UP TODAY WITH CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL BEING THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE LED TO LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR CIGS AT THE KGUY
TERMINAL WHILE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...CONDITIONS REMAIN AT VFR.
EXPECT KGUY TO BECOME VFR LATER THIS MORNING WITH ALL THREE TERMINALS
REMAINING VFR THROUGH 12Z SAT. THIS IS CONTINGENT UPON IF STORMS
DEVELOP NEAR THE TERMINAL HOWEVER GIVEN THE ISOLD NATURE OF ANY
STORM DEVELOPMENT CONFIDENCE IN MVFR OR LOWER CIGS AND/OR VISBYS IS
LOW. AS MENTIONED MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS ON THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL LATER TODAY. PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
HOWEVER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE PRETTY WEAK WITH THE ONLY SURFACE
LIFT PROVIDED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OR THE DRYLINE WHICH WILL REMAIN
IN EASTERN NM. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION VCTS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS
STARTING BETWEEN 19-00Z WITH AN EARLIER START TIME AT KDHT/KGUY PER
LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS. LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AT THE TAIL END OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS AT VFR WITH SCT020.
CLK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THE PROGGED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS RELATIVELY THE SAME AS SEEN
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. BROAD SW FLOW TO PERSIST AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS SLOWLY EDGES OFF TO THE EAST. THE SFC DRYLINE WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUSING BOUNDARY FOR TSTM INITIATION NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...FOLLOWED BY
ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS SECONDARY MECHANISMS. IT APPEARS TSTM
COVERAGE WILL BECOME MORE ISOLD DURING THE COMING DAYS AND
INCREASINGLY DEPENDENT ON WHETHER THE MID LEVEL WARM LAYER...ALSO
KNOWN AS A CAPPING INVERSION...CAN BE BREACHED. THAT SAID...USED
AREAL QUALIFIER WORDING FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ISOLD TO SCT
COVERAGE. THEN SLGT CHC POPS SAT THRU SUN NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SLGT
CHC POPS ROUGHLY ERN HALF OF FCST AREA MON THRU TUE NIGHT. IF STORMS
CAN MANAGE TO FORM...A FEW MAY BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON UA PATTERN MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH RESPECT TO HOW THE VIGOROUS WRN US TROF EJECTS. 00Z ECMWF
IS A BIT SLOWER AND HAS A MORE CLOSED OFF SOLUTION...AND ALSO OFFERS
MORE IN WAY OF PRECIP FOR WED AND WED NIGHT. 00Z GFS IS FASTER AND
DRIER OVERALL. HOWEVER...06Z GFS HAS TRENDED A BIT TOWARDS 00Z ECMWF.
DECIDED ON RETAINING SLGT CHC POPS FOR WED AND WED NIGHT AREAWIDE AS
A COMPROMISE THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. MODELS DO PUSH THIS FEATURE EAST
OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY...AND HAVE SUGESTED A DRIER SCENARIO FOR
THAT DAY.
ANDRADE
FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME.
ANDRADE
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KAMA 241136
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
636 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE PROGGED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS RELATIVELY THE SAME AS SEEN
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. BROAD SW FLOW TO PERSIST AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS SLOWLY EDGES OFF TO THE EAST. THE SFC DRYLINE WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUSING BOUNDARY FOR TSTM INITIATION NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...FOLLOWED BY
ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS SECONDARY MECHANISMS. IT APPEARS TSTM
COVERAGE WILL BECOME MORE ISOLD DURING THE COMING DAYS AND
INCREASINGLY DEPENDENT ON WHETHER THE MID LEVEL WARM LAYER...ALSO
KNOWN AS A CAPPING INVERSION...CAN BE BREACHED. THAT SAID...USED
AREAL QUALIFIER WORDING FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ISOLD TO SCT
COVERAGE. THEN SLGT CHC POPS SAT THRU SUN NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SLGT
CHC POPS ROUGHLY ERN HALF OF FCST AREA MON THRU TUE NIGHT. IF STORMS
CAN MANAGE TO FORM...A FEW MAY BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON UA PATTERN MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH RESPECT TO HOW THE VIGOROUS WRN US TROF EJECTS. 00Z ECMWF
IS A BIT SLOWER AND HAS A MORE CLOSED OFF SOLUTION...AND ALSO OFFERS
MORE IN WAY OF PRECIP FOR WED AND WED NIGHT. 00Z GFS IS FASTER AND
DRIER OVERALL. HOWEVER...06Z GFS HAS TRENDED A BIT TOWARDS 00Z ECMWF.
DECIDED ON RETAINING SLGT CHC POPS FOR WED AND WED NIGHT AREAWIDE AS
A COMPROMISE THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. MODELS DO PUSH THIS FEATURE EAST
OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY...AND HAVE SUGESTED A DRIER SCENARIO FOR
THAT DAY.
ANDRADE
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME.
ANDRADE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 82 60 85 61 90 / 30 20 20 20 20
BEAVER OK 81 62 88 63 93 / 30 20 20 20 20
BOISE CITY OK 84 58 87 57 91 / 30 20 20 20 20
BORGER TX 83 64 87 65 91 / 30 20 20 20 20
BOYS RANCH TX 84 60 87 59 92 / 30 20 20 20 20
CANYON TX 83 60 85 60 90 / 30 20 20 20 20
CLARENDON TX 82 62 85 64 90 / 30 20 20 20 20
DALHART TX 84 59 87 57 92 / 30 20 20 20 20
GUYMON OK 83 62 89 61 93 / 30 20 20 20 20
HEREFORD TX 84 59 85 59 90 / 30 20 20 20 20
LIPSCOMB TX 81 62 85 63 91 / 30 20 20 20 20
PAMPA TX 82 61 86 63 90 / 30 20 20 20 20
SHAMROCK TX 82 64 85 64 90 / 30 20 20 20 20
WELLINGTON TX 83 64 85 65 90 / 30 20 20 20 20
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KAMA 240447 AAD
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1147 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.AVIATION...
NEW THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 35 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KAMA AT THIS TIME HAVE
BEEN MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH AND POSE IMMEDIATE THREAT TO KAMA
TERMINAL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CEILINGS TO FALL INTO IFR RANGE BEFORE
SUNRISE AT ALL TERMINALS DUE TO MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. LOW-LEVEL
COOLING EXPECTED TO LIMIT STRENGTH AND DURATION OF THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...IF THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST...EXPECTED STRATUS FIELD COULD BE
DISRUPTED. IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO MVFR AROUND 15Z FRIDAY
...WITH TRANSITION TO VFR OCCURRING BY 18Z. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...AND TO THEN BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON FRIDAY.
COCKRELL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
UPDATE...
FORECASTING HAS TO BE ONE OF THE MOST HUMBLING PROFESSIONS AROUND.
JUST WHEN YOU THINK YOU HAVE A HANDLE ON HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE, THEY
CHANGE IN THE BLINK OF AN EYE -- OR A RADAR VOLUME SCAN. CONVECTION
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO HAS REALLY INCREASED IN INTENSITY
OVER THE LAST FEW VOLUME SCANS. IT APPEARS THAT THESE STORMS ARE
TAPPING INTO ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY, DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES
REMAIN AROUND 50 KT, WHICH IS VERY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS/POSSIBLY EVEN BRIEF SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES. WHILE THE
ELEVATED BUOYANCY VALUES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSTANT OVERNIGHT, DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL BE ON THE DECREASE WITH TIME AND SHOULD BE
LESS THAN 30 KT BY 3 AM. AS A RESULT, WE THINK THERE IS A WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE STORMS THROUGH 3 AM, MAINLY WEST OF GUYMON TO
AMARILLO LINE. THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS. AFTER 3 AM, STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LEVELS, BUT HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE.
JACKSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
UPDATE...
LOWERED POPS AND MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS.
DISCUSSION...
MOST FOLKS WILL BE VERY DISAPPOINTED BY THE LACK OF RAIN THAT
OCCURRED TODAY, ESPECIALLY SINCE DEW POINTS ROSE INTO THE 60S IN
MANY AREAS. UNFORTUNATELY FOR OUR AREA, A COUPLE OF DOMINANT
SUPERCELLS DEVELOPED SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONGEALED INTO A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
GENERATED A SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT RACED NORTHWESTWARD AND
CAUSED STRONG EASTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. AS THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ENCOUNTERED A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES, IT
HELPED INITIATE A COUPLE OF BRIEF SUPERCELLS JUST NORTH OF AMARILLO.
HOWEVER, DUE TO QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND A LACK OF
STRONGER UPPER FORCING, THESE SUPERCELLS QUICKLY DISSIPATED AS THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVED NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE STORMS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME OF THE
STORMS IN NEW MEXICO, AIDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY,
COULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS
WE SAW EARLIER THIS EVENING, THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS IT GETS FARTHER FROM THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
THEREFORE, WE`RE NOT VERY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
OVERNIGHT, SO WE LOWERED POPS FURTHER. HOWEVER, WITH A MOIST
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST, WE`LL KEEP A MENTION FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT. LOCATIONS WEST OF A GUYMON TO AMARILLO LINE WILL LIKELY BE
THE MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS IF STORMS DO IMPACT OUR AREA.
DUE TO BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS AND INCREASING LOW CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MILD AGAIN TONIGHT. DUE TO THIS, WE WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED
LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES. WITH THE MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE, SOME PATCHY
FOG OR EVEN DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP AFTER 4 AM. THE PATCHY FOG
POTENTIAL IS CONDITIONAL UPON WINDS SUBSIDING UNDER 10 MPH, BUT
SINCE THIS IS UNLIKELY TO OCCUR IN MOST LOCATIONS, WE LEFT THE
MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST. UPDATED PRODUCTS AND
POINT-N-CLICK FORECASTS ARE UPDATED.
JACKSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES EARLY THIS EVENING...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LOOKS
DOUBTFUL AFTER THE ONE STORM NORTH OF KAMA DISSIPATES.
THE NEXT AVIATION CONCERN BECOMES LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL TONIGHT. HAVE
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN LOW CLOUDS AT KGUY...WHERE CIGS CONTINUE
TO BOUNCE IN AND OUT OF THE MVFR RANGE. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...BUT THEN EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO TAKE HOLD
AGAIN...LIKELY LOWERING TO IFR LATE TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN AT KGUY BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT
DHT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE WILL KEEP THINGS
VFR AT KAMA AND KDHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT
AT THESE SITES AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS
POINT.
GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH SOME AND VEER TO THE
SOUTH OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KTS THEN EXPECTED AGAIN BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
KB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
TONIGHT...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AS WE
HEAD INTO THE TONIGHT PERIOD. THE STALLED FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE
AREA ...AND A DRY LINE INTERSECTING THIS FRONT FROM THE SOUTH...WILL
CONTINUE TO SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUSES FOR CONVECTION. THEREFORE THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS
AND PWAT VALUES AT LEAST IN THE 75TH PERCENTILE RANGE MOVING INTO
THE AREA...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
THE OVERALL THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE DECREASING
OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS TO THE
EXACT PLACEMENT FOR PRECIPITATION...AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
TODAY/S CONVECTION WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY PLAY A ROLE IN THE COMING
DAYS. IN GENERAL...THE WESTERN PANHANDLES WILL BE FAVORED...WITH
1500-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE MAINLY IN THE WEST. A TALL AND SKINNY CAPE
PROFILE AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL FAVOR MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT THAN LARGE HAIL OR TORNADO THREAT.
SUNDAY...
THE DRYLINE ON SUNDAY SHOULD PUSH A LITTLE FURTHER EAST...SETTING UP
MORE LIKELY NEAR OR EAST OF AMARILLO. AGAIN...1500-2500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE AND A TALLER SKINNY CAPE PROFILE SUGGEST A HIGH RISK FOR
HEAVY RAIN.
NF
LONG TERM...SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.
A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK...WITH AT LEAST SOME CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRYLINE EVERY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE REGION REMAINS STATIONED BETWEEN AN UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS STATES/MS VALLEY. THIS UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL
MAINTAIN PERSISTENT LEE SURFACE TROUGHING...AND ALSO KEEP THE
DRYLINE FROM MIXING TOO FAR EAST. THE DRYLINE WILL LIKELY MIX FROM
EASTERN NM INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES EACH DAY...POSSIBLY HANGING
UP IN EASTERN NM ON A COUPLE DAYS...PROVIDING A DAILY FOCUS FOR AT
LEAST A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP. ANY WEAK SHORTWAVES EJECTING IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ENHANCE STORM CHANCES ON A GIVEN DAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE EVENTUAL EJECTION OF THE MAIN
WESTERN TROUGH...WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF. HAVE
TRENDED MORE CLOSELY TO THE LESS PROGRESSIVE ECMWF FOR NOW. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO BE MODEST ON MOST DAYS...LIKELY INCREASING
LATER IN THE WEEK WHEN THE TROUGH DOES EVENTUALLY EJECT.
HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING IN EAST OF THE DRYLINE WILL
MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SOME THREAT OF A FEW
SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S
TO UPPER 60S.
KB
FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK AS RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
03/13
000
FXUS64 KAMA 240413 AAD
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1113 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...
FORECASTING HAS TO BE ONE OF THE MOST HUMBLING PROFESSIONS AROUND.
JUST WHEN YOU THINK YOU HAVE A HANDLE ON HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE, THEY
CHANGE IN THE BLINK OF AN EYE -- OR A RADAR VOLUME SCAN. CONVECTION
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO HAS REALLY INCREASED IN INTENSITY
OVER THE LAST FEW VOLUME SCANS. IT APPEARS THAT THESE STORMS ARE
TAPPING INTO ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY, DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES
REMAIN AROUND 50 KT, WHICH IS VERY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS/POSSIBLY EVEN BRIEF SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES. WHILE THE
ELEVATED BUOYANCY VALUES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSTANT OVERNIGHT, DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL BE ON THE DECREASE WITH TIME AND SHOULD BE
LESS THAN 30 KT BY 3 AM. AS A RESULT, WE THINK THERE IS A WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE STORMS THROUGH 3 AM, MAINLY WEST OF GUYMON TO
AMARILLO LINE. THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS. AFTER 3 AM, STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LEVELS, BUT HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE.
JACKSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
UPDATE...
LOWERED POPS AND MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS.
DISCUSSION...
MOST FOLKS WILL BE VERY DISAPPOINTED BY THE LACK OF RAIN THAT
OCCURRED TODAY, ESPECIALLY SINCE DEW POINTS ROSE INTO THE 60S IN
MANY AREAS. UNFORTUNATELY FOR OUR AREA, A COUPLE OF DOMINANT
SUPERCELLS DEVELOPED SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONGEALED INTO A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
GENERATED A SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT RACED NORTHWESTWARD AND
CAUSED STRONG EASTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. AS THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ENCOUNTERED A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES, IT
HELPED INITIATE A COUPLE OF BRIEF SUPERCELLS JUST NORTH OF AMARILLO.
HOWEVER, DUE TO QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND A LACK OF
STRONGER UPPER FORCING, THESE SUPERCELLS QUICKLY DISSIPATED AS THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVED NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE STORMS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME OF THE
STORMS IN NEW MEXICO, AIDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY,
COULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS
WE SAW EARLIER THIS EVENING, THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS IT GETS FARTHER FROM THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
THEREFORE, WE`RE NOT VERY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
OVERNIGHT, SO WE LOWERED POPS FURTHER. HOWEVER, WITH A MOIST
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST, WE`LL KEEP A MENTION FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT. LOCATIONS WEST OF A GUYMON TO AMARILLO LINE WILL LIKELY BE
THE MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS IF STORMS DO IMPACT OUR AREA.
DUE TO BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS AND INCREASING LOW CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MILD AGAIN TONIGHT. DUE TO THIS, WE WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED
LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES. WITH THE MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE, SOME PATCHY
FOG OR EVEN DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP AFTER 4 AM. THE PATCHY FOG
POTENTIAL IS CONDITIONAL UPON WINDS SUBSIDING UNDER 10 MPH, BUT
SINCE THIS IS UNLIKELY TO OCCUR IN MOST LOCATIONS, WE LEFT THE
MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST. UPDATED PRODUCTS AND
POINT-N-CLICK FORECASTS ARE UPDATED.
JACKSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES EARLY THIS EVENING...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LOOKS
DOUBTFUL AFTER THE ONE STORM NORTH OF KAMA DISSIPATES.
THE NEXT AVIATION CONCERN BECOMES LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL TONIGHT. HAVE
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN LOW CLOUDS AT KGUY...WHERE CIGS CONTINUE
TO BOUNCE IN AND OUT OF THE MVFR RANGE. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...BUT THEN EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO TAKE HOLD
AGAIN...LIKELY LOWERING TO IFR LATE TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN AT KGUY BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT
DHT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE WILL KEEP THINGS
VFR AT KAMA AND KDHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT
AT THESE SITES AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS
POINT.
GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH SOME AND VEER TO THE
SOUTH OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KTS THEN EXPECTED AGAIN BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
KB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
TONIGHT...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AS WE
HEAD INTO THE TONIGHT PERIOD. THE STALLED FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE
AREA ...AND A DRY LINE INTERSECTING THIS FRONT FROM THE SOUTH...WILL
CONTINUE TO SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUSES FOR CONVECTION. THEREFORE THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS
AND PWAT VALUES AT LEAST IN THE 75TH PERCENTILE RANGE MOVING INTO
THE AREA...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
THE OVERALL THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE DECREASING
OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS TO THE
EXACT PLACEMENT FOR PRECIPITATION...AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
TODAY/S CONVECTION WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY PLAY A ROLE IN THE COMING
DAYS. IN GENERAL...THE WESTERN PANHANDLES WILL BE FAVORED...WITH
1500-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE MAINLY IN THE WEST. A TALL AND SKINNY CAPE
PROFILE AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL FAVOR MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT THAN LARGE HAIL OR TORNADO THREAT.
SUNDAY...
THE DRYLINE ON SUNDAY SHOULD PUSH A LITTLE FURTHER EAST...SETTING UP
MORE LIKELY NEAR OR EAST OF AMARILLO. AGAIN...1500-2500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE AND A TALLER SKINNY CAPE PROFILE SUGGEST A HIGH RISK FOR
HEAVY RAIN.
NF
LONG TERM...SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.
A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK...WITH AT LEAST SOME CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRYLINE EVERY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE REGION REMAINS STATIONED BETWEEN AN UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS STATES/MS VALLEY. THIS UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL
MAINTAIN PERSISTENT LEE SURFACE TROUGHING...AND ALSO KEEP THE
DRYLINE FROM MIXING TOO FAR EAST. THE DRYLINE WILL LIKELY MIX FROM
EASTERN NM INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES EACH DAY...POSSIBLY HANGING
UP IN EASTERN NM ON A COUPLE DAYS...PROVIDING A DAILY FOCUS FOR AT
LEAST A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP. ANY WEAK SHORTWAVES EJECTING IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ENHANCE STORM CHANCES ON A GIVEN DAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE EVENTUAL EJECTION OF THE MAIN
WESTERN TROUGH...WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF. HAVE
TRENDED MORE CLOSELY TO THE LESS PROGRESSIVE ECMWF FOR NOW. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO BE MODEST ON MOST DAYS...LIKELY INCREASING
LATER IN THE WEEK WHEN THE TROUGH DOES EVENTUALLY EJECT.
HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING IN EAST OF THE DRYLINE WILL
MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SOME THREAT OF A FEW
SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S
TO UPPER 60S.
KB
FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK AS RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
JC/JJ
000
FXUS64 KAMA 240335 AAB
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1035 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...
LOWERED POPS AND MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MOST FOLKS WILL BE VERY DISAPPOINTED BY THE LACK OF RAIN THAT
OCCURRED TODAY, ESPECIALLY SINCE DEW POINTS ROSE INTO THE 60S IN
MANY AREAS. UNFORTUNATELY FOR OUR AREA, A COUPLE OF DOMINANT
SUPERCELLS DEVELOPED SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONGEALED INTO A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
GENERATED A SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT RACED NORTHWESTWARD AND
CAUSED STRONG EASTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. AS THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ENCOUNTERED A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES, IT
HELPED INITIATE A COUPLE OF BRIEF SUPERCELLS JUST NORTH OF AMARILLO.
HOWEVER, DUE TO QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND A LACK OF
STRONGER UPPER FORCING, THESE SUPERCELLS QUICKLY DISSIPATED AS THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVED NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE STORMS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME OF THE
STORMS IN NEW MEXICO, AIDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY,
COULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS
WE SAW EARLIER THIS EVENING, THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS IT GETS FARTHER FROM THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
THEREFORE, WE`RE NOT VERY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
OVERNIGHT, SO WE LOWERED POPS FURTHER. HOWEVER, WITH A MOIST
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST, WE`LL KEEP A MENTION FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT. LOCATIONS WEST OF A GUYMON TO AMARILLO LINE WILL LIKELY BE
THE MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS IF STORMS DO IMPACT OUR AREA.
DUE TO BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS AND INCREASING LOW CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MILD AGAIN TONIGHT. DUE TO THIS, WE WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED
LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES. WITH THE MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE, SOME PATCHY
FOG OR EVEN DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP AFTER 4 AM. THE PATCHY FOG
POTENTIAL IS CONDITIONAL UPON WINDS SUBSIDING UNDER 10 MPH, BUT
SINCE THIS IS UNLIKELY TO OCCUR IN MOST LOCATIONS, WE LEFT THE
MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST. UPDATED PRODUCTS AND
POINT-N-CLICK FORECASTS ARE UPDATED.
JACKSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES EARLY THIS EVENING...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LOOKS
DOUBTFUL AFTER THE ONE STORM NORTH OF KAMA DISSIPATES.
THE NEXT AVIATION CONCERN BECOMES LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL TONIGHT. HAVE
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN LOW CLOUDS AT KGUY...WHERE CIGS CONTINUE
TO BOUNCE IN AND OUT OF THE MVFR RANGE. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...BUT THEN EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO TAKE HOLD
AGAIN...LIKELY LOWERING TO IFR LATE TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN AT KGUY BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT
DHT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE WILL KEEP THINGS
VFR AT KAMA AND KDHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT
AT THESE SITES AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS
POINT.
GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH SOME AND VEER TO THE
SOUTH OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KTS THEN EXPECTED AGAIN BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
KB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
TONIGHT...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AS WE
HEAD INTO THE TONIGHT PERIOD. THE STALLED FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE
AREA ...AND A DRY LINE INTERSECTING THIS FRONT FROM THE SOUTH...WILL
CONTINUE TO SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUSES FOR CONVECTION. THEREFORE THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS
AND PWAT VALUES AT LEAST IN THE 75TH PERCENTILE RANGE MOVING INTO
THE AREA...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
THE OVERALL THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE DECREASING
OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS TO THE
EXACT PLACEMENT FOR PRECIPITATION...AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
TODAY/S CONVECTION WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY PLAY A ROLE IN THE COMING
DAYS. IN GENERAL...THE WESTERN PANHANDLES WILL BE FAVORED...WITH
1500-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE MAINLY IN THE WEST. A TALL AND SKINNY CAPE
PROFILE AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL FAVOR MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT THAN LARGE HAIL OR TORNADO THREAT.
SUNDAY...
THE DRYLINE ON SUNDAY SHOULD PUSH A LITTLE FURTHER EAST...SETTING UP
MORE LIKELY NEAR OR EAST OF AMARILLO. AGAIN...1500-2500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE AND A TALLER SKINNY CAPE PROFILE SUGGEST A HIGH RISK FOR
HEAVY RAIN.
NF
LONG TERM...SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.
A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK...WITH AT LEAST SOME CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRYLINE EVERY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE REGION REMAINS STATIONED BETWEEN AN UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS STATES/MS VALLEY. THIS UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL
MAINTAIN PERSISTENT LEE SURFACE TROUGHING...AND ALSO KEEP THE
DRYLINE FROM MIXING TOO FAR EAST. THE DRYLINE WILL LIKELY MIX FROM
EASTERN NM INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES EACH DAY...POSSIBLY HANGING
UP IN EASTERN NM ON A COUPLE DAYS...PROVIDING A DAILY FOCUS FOR AT
LEAST A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP. ANY WEAK SHORTWAVES EJECTING IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ENHANCE STORM CHANCES ON A GIVEN DAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE EVENTUAL EJECTION OF THE MAIN
WESTERN TROUGH...WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF. HAVE
TRENDED MORE CLOSELY TO THE LESS PROGRESSIVE ECMWF FOR NOW. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO BE MODEST ON MOST DAYS...LIKELY INCREASING
LATER IN THE WEEK WHEN THE TROUGH DOES EVENTUALLY EJECT.
HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING IN EAST OF THE DRYLINE WILL
MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SOME THREAT OF A FEW
SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S
TO UPPER 60S.
KB
FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK AS RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
JC/JJ
000
FXUS64 KAMA 232353
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
653 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES EARLY THIS EVENING...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LOOKS
DOUBTFUL AFTER THE ONE STORM NORTH OF KAMA DISSIPATES.
THE NEXT AVIATION CONCERN BECOMES LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL TONIGHT. HAVE
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN LOW CLOUDS AT KGUY...WHERE CIGS CONTINUE
TO BOUNCE IN AND OUT OF THE MVFR RANGE. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...BUT THEN EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO TAKE HOLD
AGAIN...LIKELY LOWERING TO IFR LATE TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN AT KGUY BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT
DHT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE WILL KEEP THINGS
VFR AT KAMA AND KDHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT
AT THESE SITES AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS
POINT.
GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH SOME AND VEER TO THE
SOUTH OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KTS THEN EXPECTED AGAIN BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
KB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
TONIGHT...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AS WE
HEAD INTO THE TONIGHT PERIOD. THE STALLED FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE
AREA ...AND A DRY LINE INTERSECTING THIS FRONT FROM THE SOUTH...WILL
CONTINUE TO SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUSES FOR CONVECTION. THEREFORE THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS
AND PWAT VALUES AT LEAST IN THE 75TH PERCENTILE RANGE MOVING INTO
THE AREA...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
THE OVERALL THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE DECREASING
OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS TO THE
EXACT PLACEMENT FOR PRECIPITATION...AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
TODAY/S CONVECTION WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY PLAY A ROLE IN THE COMING
DAYS. IN GENERAL...THE WESTERN PANHANDLES WILL BE FAVORED...WITH
1500-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE MAINLY IN THE WEST. A TALL AND SKINNY CAPE
PROFILE AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL FAVOR MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT THAN LARGE HAIL OR TORNADO THREAT.
SUNDAY...
THE DRYLINE ON SUNDAY SHOULD PUSH A LITTLE FURTHER EAST...SETTING UP
MORE LIKELY NEAR OR EAST OF AMARILLO. AGAIN...1500-2500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE AND A TALLER SKINNY CAPE PROFILE SUGGEST A HIGH RISK FOR
HEAVY RAIN.
NF
LONG TERM...SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.
A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK...WITH AT LEAST SOME CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRYLINE EVERY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE REGION REMAINS STATIONED BETWEEN AN UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS STATES/MS VALLEY. THIS UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL
MAINTAIN PERSISTENT LEE SURFACE TROUGHING...AND ALSO KEEP THE
DRYLINE FROM MIXING TOO FAR EAST. THE DRYLINE WILL LIKELY MIX FROM
EASTERN NM INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES EACH DAY...POSSIBLY HANGING
UP IN EASTERN NM ON A COUPLE DAYS...PROVIDING A DAILY FOCUS FOR AT
LEAST A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP. ANY WEAK SHORTWAVES EJECTING IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ENHANCE STORM CHANCES ON A GIVEN DAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE EVENTUAL EJECTION OF THE MAIN
WESTERN TROUGH...WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF. HAVE
TRENDED MORE CLOSELY TO THE LESS PROGRESSIVE ECMWF FOR NOW. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO BE MODEST ON MOST DAYS...LIKELY INCREASING
LATER IN THE WEEK WHEN THE TROUGH DOES EVENTUALLY EJECT.
HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING IN EAST OF THE DRYLINE WILL
MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SOME THREAT OF A FEW
SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S
TO UPPER 60S.
KB
FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK AS RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KAMA 232017
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
317 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
TONIGHT...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AS WE
HEAD INTO THE TONIGHT PERIOD. THE STALLED FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE
AREA ...AND A DRY LINE INTERSECTING THIS FRONT FROM THE SOUTH...WILL
CONTINUE TO SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUSES FOR CONVECTION. THEREFORE THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS
AND PWAT VALUES AT LEAST IN THE 75TH PERCENTILE RANGE MOVING INTO
THE AREA...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
THE OVERALL THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE DECREASING
OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS TO THE
EXACT PLACEMENT FOR PRECIPITATION...AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
TODAY/S CONVECTION WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY PLAY A ROLE IN THE COMING
DAYS. IN GENERAL...THE WESTERN PANHANDLES WILL BE FAVORED...WITH
1500-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE MAINLY IN THE WEST. A TALL AND SKINNY CAPE
PROFILE AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL FAVOR MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT THAN LARGE HAIL OR TORNADO THREAT.
SUNDAY...
THE DRYLINE ON SUNDAY SHOULD PUSH A LITTLE FURTHER EAST...SETTING UP
MORE LIKELY NEAR OR EAST OF AMARILLO. AGAIN...1500-2500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE AND A TALLER SKINNY CAPE PROFILE SUGGEST A HIGH RISK FOR
HEAVY RAIN.
NF
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.
A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK...WITH AT LEAST SOME CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRYLINE EVERY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE REGION REMAINS STATIONED BETWEEN AN UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS STATES/MS VALLEY. THIS UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL
MAINTAIN PERSISTENT LEE SURFACE TROUGHING...AND ALSO KEEP THE
DRYLINE FROM MIXING TOO FAR EAST. THE DRYLINE WILL LIKELY MIX FROM
EASTERN NM INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES EACH DAY...POSSIBLY HANGING
UP IN EASTERN NM ON A COUPLE DAYS...PROVIDING A DAILY FOCUS FOR AT
LEAST A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP. ANY WEAK SHORTWAVES EJECTING IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ENHANCE STORM CHANCES ON A GIVEN DAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE EVENTUAL EJECTION OF THE MAIN
WESTERN TROUGH...WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF. HAVE
TRENDED MORE CLOSELY TO THE LESS PROGRESSIVE ECMWF FOR NOW. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO BE MODEST ON MOST DAYS...LIKELY INCREASING
LATER IN THE WEEK WHEN THE TROUGH DOES EVENTUALLY EJECT.
HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING IN EAST OF THE DRYLINE WILL
MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SOME THREAT OF A FEW
SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S
TO UPPER 60S.
KB
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK AS RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 61 82 63 86 62 / 50 30 20 20 20
BEAVER OK 62 84 67 91 68 / 50 30 20 20 20
BOISE CITY OK 59 83 61 91 60 / 20 30 30 20 20
BORGER TX 64 85 65 88 65 / 50 30 20 20 20
BOYS RANCH TX 62 89 65 90 64 / 40 30 30 20 20
CANYON TX 60 85 64 85 62 / 50 30 20 20 20
CLARENDON TX 64 80 64 83 63 / 50 30 20 20 20
DALHART TX 60 85 61 90 59 / 20 30 30 20 20
GUYMON OK 62 83 65 91 66 / 30 30 30 20 20
HEREFORD TX 60 86 62 85 62 / 40 30 20 20 20
LIPSCOMB TX 64 81 67 86 65 / 50 30 20 20 20
PAMPA TX 61 81 65 85 63 / 50 30 20 20 20
SHAMROCK TX 65 82 66 84 63 / 50 30 20 20 20
WELLINGTON TX 67 83 66 85 63 / 50 30 20 20 20
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KAMA 231822 AAA
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
122 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE PICTURE IS BECOMING CLEARER AS FAR AS SEVERE
WEATHER CHANCES GO THIS AFTERNOON. A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN FLOW
ALOFT MEANS THAT CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE PREDOMINATELY SFC-
BNDRY DRIVEN. A WWD MOVING COLD FRONT IS SLOWING DOWN AND STALLING
JUST EAST OF I27. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD STALL WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR
RIGHT ALONG I27. ONCE IT STALLS, CONVERGENCE ALONG IT SHOULD
INITIATE CONVECTION. THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST OFF OF THE
BOUNDARY AND RAPIDLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR IN THE PRESENCE OF MLCAPE
VALUES OF 3500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES INCREASING TO 40-50KTS.
THREATS-WISE...
CONCERN IS INCREASING FOR VERY LARGE HAIL, MAYBE NEAR SOFTBALL SIZE.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED INTENSITY OF SUPERCELLS, THE TORNADO THREAT WILL
ALSO BE NOTED IN THE PRESENCE OF LOW LVL ERLY FLOW. THE GREATEST
THREAT AREA CONTINUES TO BE BOUNDED BY PAMPA, AMARILLO, AND CANYON ON
THE NW.
OF NOTE...
STORMS COULD VERY WELL INITIATE DIRECTLY ABOVE AMARILLO AND CANYON.
THE PACE AT WHICH THEY BECOME SEVERE WILL DICTATE WHETHER OR NOT
AMARILLO RESIDENTS BEAR THE WORST OF THESE STORMS. THE EASTERN HALVES
OF POTTER/RANDALL COUNTIES WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE SEVERE WEATHER
THAN THE WESTERN PORTIONS.
SIMPSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1233 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE GOING TO BE A MAIN CONCERN FOR THE KAMA TERMINAL
WHILE KGUY AND KDHT WILL BE FACING LOW CLOUDS FOR THE STAT OF THE
TAF.
FOR KAMA...CONDITIONS REMAIN PRIMED FOR THE INITIATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OR EVEN RIGHT OVER THE TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE REMAINS A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO IF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL START OVER THE TERMINAL OR MOVES OVER THE TERMINAL OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE LEFT VCTS IN THE PREVAILING GROUP BUT MOVED THE
TIMING SOONER BY AN HOUR. GIVEN THE RECENT CU DEVELOPMENT FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD HOLD OFF AT LEAST UNTIL
20Z. WITH THAT SAID IF/WHEN STORMS INITIATE THE HIGHLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW THESE STORMS TO STRENGTHEN QUICKLY...AND IF THEY
MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF BASEBALLS...DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...AND BRIEF
LIFR OR LOWER CEILINGS. ANY CONVECTION NEAR THE TERMINAL SHOULD BE
EAST BY 03Z. THEN OVER NIGHT EXPECT TO SEE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP AS THE
LOWEST LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SATURATED. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
LIFT JUST BEFORE THE END OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
FOR KDHT AND KGUY...CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM THESE
TERMINALS BUT WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE START OF
THIS TAF ISSUANCE. BOTH TERMINALS MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CAUSE IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KT
BUT ROTATE FROM A NORTHEASTERLY TO THE SOUTH BY LATE TOMORROW
MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
SHORT TERM...
FOR ONCE FORECAST FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR NEARLY ALL OF
THE SHORT TERM.
TODAY...NOT MANY CHANGES IN THE EXPECTED PATTERN TODAY. COLD FRONT
HAS NEARLY ENTERED THE OK PANHANDLE. THE EXACT LOCATION WHERE THE
FRONT WILL STALL REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN WITH THE LATEST NAM SHOWING
THE FRONT MOVE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE BY OR JUST AFTER
00Z. FOR NOW THOUGH...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SOLUTION THAT IT WILL
STALL NEAR DALHART...JUST NORTH OF AMARILLO...AND NEAR
CLARENDON..SINCE THIS HAS HAD THE MOST RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.
ANOTHER INGREDIENT THAT WE ARE STILL WAITING ON IS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEW POINT TEMPS BY 18Z IN THE MID
60S. HOWEVER...AT THIS HOUR...DEW POINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS THE REGION. FEEL RELATIVELY CONFIDENT THAT MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AS ADVERTISED WITH THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY FLOW. AND ONE MORE THING WE WILL BE
WATCHING IS THAT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH HELPING TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE...AT LEAST IN THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...AND PROVIDING THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. HAVING SAID ALL THAT...STILL THINK THE INGREDIENTS WILL
COME TOGETHER FOR A SEVERE STORM THREAT BY 21 TO 00Z. AS FOR WHAT
HAZARDS WE ARE CONCERNED WITH:
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS...WITH OUT A DOUBT THIS REMAINS THE BIGGEST
THREAT. EXPECT CAPE VALUES TO BE QUITE LARGE...BY SOME MODELS THERE ARE
ML CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG. BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE MORE
THAN ADEQUATE...GENERALLY 25 TO 35 KT...THOUGH ALONG THE NM/TX STATE
LINE SHEAR VALUES COULD BE OVER 50KT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT PERSISTENT
UPDRAFTS. THE MAIN PERIOD FOR THIS THREAT WILL BE FROM SHORTLY AFTER
THE STORMS DEVELOP...3 OR 4 PM CDT...THROUGH ABOUT 10 PM AS CAPE
VALUES DECREASE AND STORMS BECOME ELEVATED.
FLASH FLOODING...BECOMING MORE CONCERNED WITH THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTH EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. AS
MENTIONED IN A PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
VERY INEFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. HOWEVER...MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION...MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON SHOWING STORM MOTIONS OF RIGHT MOVING
SUPERCELLS IN THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE TO BE BETWEEN 0 AND 8KT. ALSO
IF ANY CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES TRAIN ALONG OR BACK BUILD ON THE
FRONT...SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE LONG DURATION RAINFALL. THESE
FACTORS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO COUNTERACT THE ISSUE OF INEFFICIENCY. HAVING
SAID ALL THAT HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF STORMS ARE
PRIMARILY LEFT MOVING SUPERCELLS OR COMPLEXES THAT MOVE WITH THE MEAN
FLOW...STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE FAST ENOUGH TO GENERALLY MITIGATE THE
FLASH FLOODING CONCERN.
TORNADOES...AS MENTIONED IN A PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THE THREAT PERIOD
FOR THIS WILL BE RATHER BRIEF...AND SHOULD BE PRIMARILY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR THIS THREAT WILL
BE THE LCLS. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW ONLY A BRIEF
PERIOD...CENTERED AROUND 00Z WHEN THE LCLS WILL BE BELOW 2000 FT AGL.
SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS THINKING THAT THE THREAT FOR THIS
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO BETWEEN 5 AND 8 PM CDT.
LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET SHOULD DEVELOP
BY 06Z TONIGHT...BRINGING NEEDED MOISTURE RETURN. HOWEVER...HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPING FURTHER SOUTH.
IF THIS COMPLEX IS PERSISTENT ENOUGH...IT COULD LIMIT THE MOISTURE
RETURN...LIMITING HOW LATE THE CONVECTION WOULD LAST. TOMORROW IS
ALSO RATHER CONDITIONAL. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE LOW CLOUDS
THAT DEVELOP TONIGHT. DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THESE LOW CLOUDS
PERSIST...THIS COULD LIMIT HEATING...AND THUS CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. HOWEVER...IF STORMS DEVELOP...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AT
LEAST SOME SEVERE THREAT.
LONG TERM...
BEYOND FRIDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE REGION WILL STAY IN AN UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN...WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS...AND A PERSISTENT DRY LINE PROVIDING MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HOW LONG THIS PATTERN HOLDS IS DEPENDENT ON HOW
QUICKLY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST...AND THAT IS
RATHER UNCERTAIN. GIVEN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE TO OUR
EAST...FORECAST FAVORS THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION OVER THE GFS. THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT PART OF THIS SOLUTION IS THAT FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE VERY MERIDIONAL...WHICH SHOULD
MEAN THE DRY LINE ISN/T LIKELY TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA ANY TIME SOON.
FOR NOW...HAVE INCLUDED POPS IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. BUT IF THE PATTERN IS AS THE ECMWF SHOWS...POPS MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WELL.
JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVELY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL
PRECLUDE ANY ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
JOHNSON
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
14/09
000
FXUS64 KAMA 231733
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1233 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE GOING TO BE A MAIN CONCERN FOR THE KAMA TERMINAL
WHILE KGUY AND KDHT WILL BE FACING LOW CLOUDS FOR THE STAT OF THE
TAF.
FOR KAMA...CONDITIONS REMAIN PRIMED FOR THE INITIATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OR EVEN RIGHT OVER THE TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE REMAINS A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO IF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL START OVER THE TERMINAL OR MOVES OVER THE TERMINAL OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE LEFT VCTS IN THE PREVAILING GROUP BUT MOVED THE
TIMING SOONER BY AN HOUR. GIVEN THE RECENT CU DEVELOPMENT FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD HOLD OFF AT LEAST UNTIL
20Z. WITH THAT SAID IF/WHEN STORMS INITIATE THE HIGHLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW THESE STORMS TO STRENGTHEN QUICKLY...AND IF THEY
MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF BASEBALLS...DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...AND BRIEF
LIFR OR LOWER CEILINGS. ANY CONVECTION NEAR THE TERMINAL SHOULD BE
EAST BY 03Z. THEN OVER NIGHT EXPECT TO SEE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP AS THE
LOWEST LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SATURATED. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
LIFT JUST BEFORE THE END OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
FOR KDHT AND KGUY...CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM THESE
TERMINALS BUT WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE START OF
THIS TAF ISSUANCE. BOTH TERMINALS MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CAUSE IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KT
BUT ROTATE FROM A NORTHEASTERLY TO THE SOUTH BY LATE TOMORROW
MORNING.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
SHORT TERM...
FOR ONCE FORECAST FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR NEARLY ALL OF
THE SHORT TERM.
TODAY...NOT MANY CHANGES IN THE EXPECTED PATTERN TODAY. COLD FRONT
HAS NEARLY ENTERED THE OK PANHANDLE. THE EXACT LOCATION WHERE THE
FRONT WILL STALL REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN WITH THE LATEST NAM SHOWING
THE FRONT MOVE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE BY OR JUST AFTER
00Z. FOR NOW THOUGH...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SOLUTION THAT IT WILL
STALL NEAR DALHART...JUST NORTH OF AMARILLO...AND NEAR
CLARENDON..SINCE THIS HAS HAD THE MOST RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.
ANOTHER INGREDIENT THAT WE ARE STILL WAITING ON IS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEW POINT TEMPS BY 18Z IN THE MID
60S. HOWEVER...AT THIS HOUR...DEW POINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS THE REGION. FEEL RELATIVELY CONFIDENT THAT MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AS ADVERTISED WITH THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY FLOW. AND ONE MORE THING WE WILL BE
WATCHING IS THAT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH HELPING TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE...AT LEAST IN THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...AND PROVIDING THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. HAVING SAID ALL THAT...STILL THINK THE INGREDIENTS WILL
COME TOGETHER FOR A SEVERE STORM THREAT BY 21 TO 00Z. AS FOR WHAT
HAZARDS WE ARE CONCERNED WITH:
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS...WITH OUT A DOUBT THIS REMAINS THE BIGGEST
THREAT. EXPECT CAPE VALUES TO BE QUITE LARGE...BY SOME MODELS THERE ARE
ML CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG. BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE MORE
THAN ADEQUATE...GENERALLY 25 TO 35 KT...THOUGH ALONG THE NM/TX STATE
LINE SHEAR VALUES COULD BE OVER 50KT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT PERSISTENT
UPDRAFTS. THE MAIN PERIOD FOR THIS THREAT WILL BE FROM SHORTLY AFTER
THE STORMS DEVELOP...3 OR 4 PM CDT...THROUGH ABOUT 10 PM AS CAPE
VALUES DECREASE AND STORMS BECOME ELEVATED.
FLASH FLOODING...BECOMING MORE CONCERNED WITH THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTH EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. AS
MENTIONED IN A PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
VERY INEFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. HOWEVER...MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION...MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON SHOWING STORM MOTIONS OF RIGHT MOVING
SUPERCELLS IN THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE TO BE BETWEEN 0 AND 8KT. ALSO
IF ANY CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES TRAIN ALONG OR BACK BUILD ON THE
FRONT...SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE LONG DURATION RAINFALL. THESE
FACTORS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO COUNTERACT THE ISSUE OF INEFFICIENCY. HAVING
SAID ALL THAT HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF STORMS ARE
PRIMARILY LEFT MOVING SUPERCELLS OR COMPLEXES THAT MOVE WITH THE MEAN
FLOW...STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE FAST ENOUGH TO GENERALLY MITIGATE THE
FLASH FLOODING CONCERN.
TORNADOES...AS MENTIONED IN A PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THE THREAT PERIOD
FOR THIS WILL BE RATHER BRIEF...AND SHOULD BE PRIMARILY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR THIS THREAT WILL
BE THE LCLS. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW ONLY A BRIEF
PERIOD...CENTERED AROUND 00Z WHEN THE LCLS WILL BE BELOW 2000 FT AGL.
SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS THINKING THAT THE THREAT FOR THIS
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO BETWEEN 5 AND 8 PM CDT.
LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET SHOULD DEVELOP
BY 06Z TONIGHT...BRINGING NEEDED MOISTURE RETURN. HOWEVER...HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPING FURTHER SOUTH.
IF THIS COMPLEX IS PERSISTENT ENOUGH...IT COULD LIMIT THE MOISTURE
RETURN...LIMITING HOW LATE THE CONVECTION WOULD LAST. TOMORROW IS
ALSO RATHER CONDITIONAL. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE LOW CLOUDS
THAT DEVELOP TONIGHT. DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THESE LOW CLOUDS
PERSIST...THIS COULD LIMIT HEATING...AND THUS CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. HOWEVER...IF STORMS DEVELOP...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AT
LEAST SOME SEVERE THREAT.
LONG TERM...
BEYOND FRIDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE REGION WILL STAY IN AN UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN...WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS...AND A PERSISTENT DRY LINE PROVIDING MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HOW LONG THIS PATTERN HOLDS IS DEPENDENT ON HOW
QUICKLY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST...AND THAT IS
RATHER UNCERTAIN. GIVEN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE TO OUR
EAST...FORECAST FAVORS THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION OVER THE GFS. THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT PART OF THIS SOLUTION IS THAT FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE VERY MERIDIONAL...WHICH SHOULD
MEAN THE DRY LINE ISN/T LIKELY TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA ANY TIME SOON.
FOR NOW...HAVE INCLUDED POPS IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. BUT IF THE PATTERN IS AS THE ECMWF SHOWS...POPS MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WELL.
JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVELY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL
PRECLUDE ANY ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
JOHNSON
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
14/09
000
FXUS64 KAMA 231158 AAA
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
658 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...A RATHER COMPLICATED AND LOW CONFIDENCE FCST NEXT
24 HOURS. A STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE SRN
TX PNHDL THIS AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TSTMS SHOULD BE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT... AND HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT KAMA FOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. OMITTED MENTION OF TSTMS
AT KGUY AND KDHT AS THE CHANCE WILL BE LESS ACROSS NRN TX AND OK
PNHDLS. SEVERE STORM THREAT SHOULD ALSO BE HIGHEST IN SRN TX PNHDL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL WILL ALSO
INCREASE AT ALL TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT AND HAVE INCLUDED MVFR CIGS
AT ALL TERMINAL SITES FOR THIS ISSUANCE. IFR CIGS CERTAINLY A PSBLTY
DEPENDING ON DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PRECIP AMOUNTS...AND
WILL DEFER THAT CONSIDERATION TO LATER SHIFTS.
ANDRADE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
SHORT TERM...
FOR ONCE FORECAST FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR NEARLY ALL OF
THE SHORT TERM.
TODAY...NOT MANY CHANGES IN THE EXPECTED PATTERN TODAY. COLD FRONT
HAS NEARLY ENTERED THE OK PANHANDLE. THE EXACT LOCATION WHERE THE
FRONT WILL STALL REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN WITH THE LATEST NAM SHOWING
THE FRONT MOVE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE BY OR JUST AFTER
00Z. FOR NOW THOUGH...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SOLUTION THAT IT WILL
STALL NEAR DALHART...JUST NORTH OF AMARILLO...AND NEAR
CLARENDON..SINCE THIS HAS HAD THE MOST RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.
ANOTHER INGREDIENT THAT WE ARE STILL WAITING ON IS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEW POINT TEMPS BY 18Z IN THE MID
60S. HOWEVER...AT THIS HOUR...DEW POINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS THE REGION. FEEL RELATIVELY CONFIDENT THAT MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AS ADVERTISED WITH THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY FLOW. AND ONE MORE THING WE WILL BE
WATCHING IS THAT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH HELPING TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE...AT LEAST IN THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...AND PROVIDING THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. HAVING SAID ALL THAT...STILL THINK THE INGREDIENTS WILL
COME TOGETHER FOR A SEVERE STORM THREAT BY 21 TO 00Z. AS FOR WHAT
HAZARDS WE ARE CONCERNED WITH:
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS...WITH OUT A DOUBT THIS REMAINS THE BIGGEST
THREAT. EXPECT CAPE VALUES TO BE QUITE LARGE...BY SOME MODELS THERE ARE
ML CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG. BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE MORE
THAN ADEQUATE...GENERALLY 25 TO 35 KT...THOUGH ALONG THE NM/TX STATE
LINE SHEAR VALUES COULD BE OVER 50KT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT PERSISTENT
UPDRAFTS. THE MAIN PERIOD FOR THIS THREAT WILL BE FROM SHORTLY AFTER
THE STORMS DEVELOP...3 OR 4 PM CDT...THROUGH ABOUT 10 PM AS CAPE
VALUES DECREASE AND STORMS BECOME ELEVATED.
FLASH FLOODING...BECOMING MORE CONCERNED WITH THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTH EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. AS
MENTIONED IN A PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
VERY INEFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. HOWEVER...MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION...MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON SHOWING STORM MOTIONS OF RIGHT MOVING
SUPERCELLS IN THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE TO BE BETWEEN 0 AND 8KT. ALSO
IF ANY CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES TRAIN ALONG OR BACK BUILD ON THE
FRONT...SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE LONG DURATION RAINFALL. THESE
FACTORS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO COUNTERACT THE ISSUE OF INEFFICIENCY. HAVING
SAID ALL THAT HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF STORMS ARE
PRIMARILY LEFT MOVING SUPERCELLS OR COMPLEXES THAT MOVE WITH THE MEAN
FLOW...STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE FAST ENOUGH TO GENERALLY MITIGATE THE
FLASH FLOODING CONCERN.
TORNADOES...AS MENTIONED IN A PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THE THREAT PERIOD
FOR THIS WILL BE RATHER BRIEF...AND SHOULD BE PRIMARILY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR THIS THREAT WILL
BE THE LCLS. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW ONLY A BRIEF
PERIOD...CENTERED AROUND 00Z WHEN THE LCLS WILL BE BELOW 2000 FT AGL.
SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS THINKING THAT THE THREAT FOR THIS
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO BETWEEN 5 AND 8 PM CDT.
LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET SHOULD DEVELOP
BY 06Z TONIGHT...BRINGING NEEDED MOISTURE RETURN. HOWEVER...HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPING FURTHER SOUTH.
IF THIS COMPLEX IS PERSISTENT ENOUGH...IT COULD LIMIT THE MOISTURE
RETURN...LIMITING HOW LATE THE CONVECTION WOULD LAST. TOMORROW IS
ALSO RATHER CONDITIONAL. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE LOW CLOUDS
THAT DEVELOP TONIGHT. DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THESE LOW CLOUDS
PERSIST...THIS COULD LIMIT HEATING...AND THUS CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. HOWEVER...IF STORMS DEVELOP...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AT
LEAST SOME SEVERE THREAT.
LONG TERM...
BEYOND FRIDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE REGION WILL STAY IN AN UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN...WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS...AND A PERSISTENT DRY LINE PROVIDING MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HOW LONG THIS PATTERN HOLDS IS DEPENDENT ON HOW
QUICKLY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST...AND THAT IS
RATHER UNCERTAIN. GIVEN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE TO OUR
EAST...FORECAST FAVORS THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION OVER THE GFS. THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT PART OF THIS SOLUTION IS THAT FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE VERY MERIDIONAL...WHICH SHOULD
MEAN THE DRY LINE ISN/T LIKELY TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA ANY TIME SOON.
FOR NOW...HAVE INCLUDED POPS IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. BUT IF THE PATTERN IS AS THE ECMWF SHOWS...POPS MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WELL.
JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVELY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL
PRECLUDE ANY ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
JOHNSON
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KAMA 230919
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
419 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...
FOR ONCE FORECAST FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR NEARLY ALL OF
THE SHORT TERM.
TODAY...NOT MANY CHANGES IN THE EXPECTED PATTERN TODAY. COLD FRONT
HAS NEARLY ENTERED THE OK PANHANDLE. THE EXACT LOCATION WHERE THE
FRONT WILL STALL REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN WITH THE LATEST NAM SHOWING
THE FRONT MOVE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE BY OR JUST AFTER
00Z. FOR NOW THOUGH...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SOLUTION THAT IT WILL
STALL NEAR DALHART...JUST NORTH OF AMARILLO...AND NEAR
CLARENDON..SINCE THIS HAS HAD THE MOST RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.
ANOTHER INGREDIENT THAT WE ARE STILL WAITING ON IS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEW POINT TEMPS BY 18Z IN THE MID
60S. HOWEVER...AT THIS HOUR...DEW POINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS THE REGION. FEEL RELATIVELY CONFIDENT THAT MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AS ADVERTISED WITH THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY FLOW. AND ONE MORE THING WE WILL BE
WATCHING IS THAT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH HELPING TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE...AT LEAST IN THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...AND PROVIDING THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. HAVING SAID ALL THAT...STILL THINK THE INGREDIENTS WILL
COME TOGETHER FOR A SEVERE STORM THREAT BY 21 TO 00Z. AS FOR WHAT
HAZARDS WE ARE CONCERNED WITH:
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS...WITH OUT A DOUBT THIS REMAINS THE BIGGEST
THREAT. EXPECT CAPE VALUES TO BE QUITE LARGE...BY SOME MODELS THERE ARE
ML CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG. BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE MORE
THAN ADEQUATE...GENERALLY 25 TO 35 KT...THOUGH ALONG THE NM/TX STATE
LINE SHEAR VALUES COULD BE OVER 50KT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT PERSISTENT
UPDRAFTS. THE MAIN PERIOD FOR THIS THREAT WILL BE FROM SHORTLY AFTER
THE STORMS DEVELOP...3 OR 4 PM CDT...THROUGH ABOUT 10 PM AS CAPE
VALUES DECREASE AND STORMS BECOME ELEVATED.
FLASH FLOODING...BECOMING MORE CONCERNED WITH THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTH EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. AS
MENTIONED IN A PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
VERY INEFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. HOWEVER...MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION...MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON SHOWING STORM MOTIONS OF RIGHT MOVING
SUPERCELLS IN THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE TO BE BETWEEN 0 AND 8KT. ALSO
IF ANY CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES TRAIN ALONG OR BACK BUILD ON THE
FRONT...SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE LONG DURATION RAINFALL. THESE
FACTORS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO COUNTERACT THE ISSUE OF INEFFICIENCY. HAVING
SAID ALL THAT HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF STORMS ARE
PRIMARILY LEFT MOVING SUPERCELLS OR COMPLEXES THAT MOVE WITH THE MEAN
FLOW...STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE FAST ENOUGH TO GENERALLY MITIGATE THE
FLASH FLOODING CONCERN.
TORNADOES...AS MENTIONED IN A PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THE THREAT PERIOD
FOR THIS WILL BE RATHER BRIEF...AND SHOULD BE PRIMARILY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR THIS THREAT WILL
BE THE LCLS. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW ONLY A BRIEF
PERIOD...CENTERED AROUND 00Z WHEN THE LCLS WILL BE BELOW 2000 FT AGL.
SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS THINKING THAT THE THREAT FOR THIS
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO BETWEEN 5 AND 8 PM CDT.
LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET SHOULD DEVELOP
BY 06Z TONIGHT...BRINGING NEEDED MOISTURE RETURN. HOWEVER...HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPING FURTHER SOUTH.
IF THIS COMPLEX IS PERSISTENT ENOUGH...IT COULD LIMIT THE MOISTURE
RETURN...LIMITING HOW LATE THE CONVECTION WOULD LAST. TOMORROW IS
ALSO RATHER CONDITIONAL. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE LOW CLOUDS
THAT DEVELOP TONIGHT. DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THESE LOW CLOUDS
PERSIST...THIS COULD LIMIT HEATING...AND THUS CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. HOWEVER...IF STORMS DEVELOP...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AT
LEAST SOME SEVERE THREAT.
.LONG TERM...
BEYOND FRIDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE REGION WILL STAY IN AN UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN...WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS...AND A PERSISTENT DRY LINE PROVIDING MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HOW LONG THIS PATTERN HOLDS IS DEPENDENT ON HOW
QUICKLY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST...AND THAT IS
RATHER UNCERTAIN. GIVEN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE TO OUR
EAST...FORECAST FAVORS THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION OVER THE GFS. THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT PART OF THIS SOLUTION IS THAT FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE VERY MERIDIONAL...WHICH SHOULD
MEAN THE DRY LINE ISN/T LIKELY TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA ANY TIME SOON.
FOR NOW...HAVE INCLUDED POPS IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. BUT IF THE PATTERN IS AS THE ECMWF SHOWS...POPS MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WELL.
JOHNSON
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVELY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL
PRECLUDE ANY ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
JOHNSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 82 61 82 60 82 / 40 50 30 20 20
BEAVER OK 73 59 84 64 89 / 30 50 30 20 20
BOISE CITY OK 70 58 83 59 87 / 20 20 30 30 20
BORGER TX 83 64 85 62 84 / 30 50 30 20 20
BOYS RANCH TX 85 63 89 63 85 / 30 40 30 30 20
CANYON TX 86 60 85 61 81 / 40 50 30 20 20
CLARENDON TX 80 64 80 62 81 / 40 50 30 20 20
DALHART TX 77 57 85 59 85 / 20 30 30 30 20
GUYMON OK 74 60 83 61 87 / 20 30 30 30 20
HEREFORD TX 88 60 86 60 80 / 30 40 30 20 20
LIPSCOMB TX 74 62 81 65 86 / 30 50 30 20 20
PAMPA TX 80 62 81 60 81 / 40 50 30 20 20
SHAMROCK TX 84 65 82 65 82 / 40 50 30 20 20
WELLINGTON TX 87 67 83 65 83 / 40 50 30 20 20
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
02/16
000
FXUS64 KAMA 230506 AAD
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1206 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION.../06Z TAFS/
FOR KAMA...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF TSRA
AT KAMA AFTER 2100Z SO INCLUDED A VCTS FOR NOW. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THE
COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED AND THE EXACT LOCATION OF A
STATIONARY FRONT WHICH SHOULD SERVE AS THE FOCUS TO DEVELOP STORMS IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. IF A STORM DOES DIRECTLY IMPACT KAMA...LARGE
HAIL...WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 55 KT...AND BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
FOR KGUY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 1500-2500FT
DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY AFTER 13Z AND CONTINUING INTERMITTENTLY
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR KDHT...NOT AS CONFIDENT THAT MVFR
CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AS EARLY AS KGUY BUT THINK AFTER 02Z SEEMS
LIKELY. TSRA DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF BOTH
TERMINALS.
KNS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
UPDATE...
OUR THOUGHTS REGARDING THE SEVERE WEATHER SETUP FOR THURSDAY
GENERALLY JIVE WITH OUR CURRENT FORECAST. BASED ON THE NEWEST MODEL
DATA, WE`RE BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT THAT SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES.
TIMING: IT APPEARS THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL INITIATE
AFTER 3:30 PM NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF
A DALHART TO CLAUDE LINE. INITIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE, POSSIBLY NEAR AMARILLO. AS
THESE STORMS DEVELOP, THEY WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED DEGREE OF BUOYANCY AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR, STORMS
SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR AND SEVERE WITHIN AN HOUR AND A
HALF AFTER THEY DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME, THE PRIMARY WINDOW FOR SEVERE
STORMS LOOKS TO BE 4-10 PM.
LOCATION: THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS TO OCCUR SOUTH AND
EAST OF A HEREFORD TO DALHART TO BEAVER LINE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF
AN AMARILLO TO CANADIAN LINE. THE HIGHEST TORNADO THREAT LOOKS TO BE
FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF AN AMARILLO TO PAMPA TO SHAMROCK LINE.
HOWEVER, AS WE`VE MENTIONED IN OUR DISCUSSIONS, THE TORNADO THREAT
WILL BE CLOSELY TIED TO THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
NEWEST NAM AND LATEST TEXAS TECH WRF ADDITIONALLY, ONE THING WE`LL
BE WATCHING VERY CLOSELY TONIGHT IS IF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
IN OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS OR WESTERN OKLAHOMA. IF AN ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPS, IT COULD SEND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SCENARIO IS EXTREMELY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, BUT WE`LL BE MONITORING THIS CLOSELY AS ANY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COULD ALSO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES IF IT
DOESN`T COMPLETELY MIX OUT.
HAZARDS: VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. HOWEVER,
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY (OR POTENTIALLY AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY).
THE WINDOW FOR THE HIGHEST TORNADO POTENTIAL LOOKS RELATIVELY SMALL
AT THIS TIME, BUT THE 5-8 PM TIME FRAME IS WHEN WE`LL BE WATCHING
THIS POTENTIAL MOST CLOSELY. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE PRESENT, BUT SUPERCELLS ARE NOT
THE MOST EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCERS. HOWEVER, IF A SLOW MOVING
SUPERCELL MOVES ALONG ANY FRONT/BOUNDARY, THAT POTENTIAL WOULD BE
GREATLY ENHANCED.
JACKSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
UPDATE...
MAIN CHANGES WERE TO ADD A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES LATE TONIGHT AND ADJUST TEMPS UPWARD
IN MANY LOCATIONS.
DISCUSSION...
IT`S A MILD EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S. WITH A 40-45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING, WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
10-20 MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT, THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT, SO WE HAVE WARMED LOW TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE.
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASING, MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
OVERNIGHT, BUT REGIONAL 0000 UTC SOUNDINGS SHOWED VERY MEAGER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO
WILL CLIP OUR NORTHERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT. THE FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION APPEAR
TO BE SUFFICIENT TO AT LEAST MENTION A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF A BEAVER TO MCLEAN LINE BETWEEN 5 AM
AND 10 AM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE UP TO 1000 J/KG OF MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE, BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KT
TONIGHT. THEREFORE, IF STORMS DO DEVELOP, THEY MAY CONTAIN SOME SMALL
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS, BUT DUE TO THE MEAGER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR, NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. UPDATED PRODUCTS AND
POINT-N-CLICK FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
AN UPDATED DISCUSSION REGARDING THURSDAY`S SEVERE WEATHER SETUP WILL
BE SENT SHORTLY AFTER DIGESTING THE LATEST MODEL DATA.
JACKSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KAMA AND KDHT (AS
LONG AS STORMS DON`T IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL). HAVE MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT KGUY 15Z-18Z AND 20Z-00Z.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF TSRA AT KAMA AFTER 2130Z, BUT WE DECIDED TO HOLD
OFF ON INCLUDING THIS IN THIS TAF ISSUANCE FOR TWO REASONS:
1) THE COVERAGE OF STORMS MAY BE ISOLATED THROUGH END OF THIS TAF
PERIOD.
2) DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH RESPECT TO THE LOCATION OF A STATIONARY
FRONT WHICH SHOULD SERVE AS THE FOCUS TO DEVELOP STORMS.
HOWEVER, IF A STORM DOES DIRECTLY IMPACT KAMA, LARGE HAIL, WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 55 KT, AND BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
JACKSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FROM TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA THURSDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AND WILL BE LINED
UP JUST EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO BE FOUND LINED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG
INTERSTATE 35 FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL
START TO BREAK DOWN BY TUESDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
ON THURSDAY.
THIS MEANS THAT THE PANHANDLES WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR EAST AND A TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST
FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST. THIS
WILL BRING AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER TO OUR AREA AT LEAST
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY AS MOISTURE IS BROUGHT NORTHWARD ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND THEN BROUGHT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE DEVIL WILL BE IN THE
SURFACE DETAILS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST.
FIRST...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BACKDOOR INTO THE
PANHANDLES TONIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PULL UP STATIONARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THIS
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THIS
BOUNDARY BE WHEN CONVECTION INITIATES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS ARE NOT CLEAR ON JUST EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A
TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THESE STORMS INTERACT WITH
THE BOUNDARY. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AS PLENTY OF GULF
MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT NORTHWARD TO ADD TO THE FUEL. THESE STORMS
WILL ALSO NOT BE MOVING VERY FAST.
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS
THE WESTERN AREAS NEAR THE DRYLINE WHICH WILL BE IN EASTERN NEW
MEXICO/FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES EACH AFTERNOON.
BY MEMORIAL DAY...THE DRYLINE MAY MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES
BY THE AFTERNOON...SO THE BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE IN THESE
AREAS.
WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW
ALOFT MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO HELP EDGE THE DRYLINE EAST OF OUR
AREA.
FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
GIVEN THE CHANCES OF RAIN IN THIS FORECAST.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
99/99
000
FXUS64 KAMA 230318 AAD
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1018 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.UPDATE...
OUR THOUGHTS REGARDING THE SEVERE WEATHER SETUP FOR THURSDAY
GENERALLY JIVE WITH OUR CURRENT FORECAST. BASED ON THE NEWEST MODEL
DATA, WE`RE BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT THAT SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES.
TIMING: IT APPEARS THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL INITIATE
AFTER 3:30 PM NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF
A DALHART TO CLAUDE LINE. INITIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE, POSSIBLY NEAR AMARILLO. AS
THESE STORMS DEVELOP, THEY WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED DEGREE OF BUOYANCY AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR, STORMS
SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR AND SEVERE WITHIN AN HOUR AND A
HALF AFTER THEY DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME, THE PRIMARY WINDOW FOR SEVERE
STORMS LOOKS TO BE 4-10 PM.
LOCATION: THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS TO OCCUR SOUTH AND
EAST OF A HEREFORD TO DALHART TO BEAVER LINE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF
AN AMARILLO TO CANADIAN LINE. THE HIGHEST TORNADO THREAT LOOKS TO BE
FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF AN AMARILLO TO PAMPA TO SHAMROCK LINE.
HOWEVER, AS WE`VE MENTIONED IN OUR DISCUSSIONS, THE TORNADO THREAT
WILL BE CLOSELY TIED TO THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
NEWEST NAM AND LATEST TEXAS TECH WRF ADDITIONALLY, ONE THING WE`LL
BE WATCHING VERY CLOSELY TONIGHT IS IF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
IN OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS OR WESTERN OKLAHOMA. IF AN ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPS, IT COULD SEND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SCENARIO IS EXTREMELY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, BUT WE`LL BE MONITORING THIS CLOSELY AS ANY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COULD ALSO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES IF IT
DOESN`T COMPLETELY MIX OUT.
HAZARDS: VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. HOWEVER,
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY (OR POTENTIALLY AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY).
THE WINDOW FOR THE HIGHEST TORNADO POTENTIAL LOOKS RELATIVELY SMALL
AT THIS TIME, BUT THE 5-8 PM TIME FRAME IS WHEN WE`LL BE WATCHING
THIS POTENTIAL MOST CLOSELY. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE PRESENT, BUT SUPERCELLS ARE NOT
THE MOST EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCERS. HOWEVER, IF A SLOW MOVING
SUPERCELL MOVES ALONG ANY FRONT/BOUNDARY, THAT POTENTIAL WOULD BE
GREATLY ENHANCED.
JACKSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
UPDATE...
MAIN CHANGES WERE TO ADD A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES LATE TONIGHT AND ADJUST TEMPS UPWARD
IN MANY LOCATIONS.
DISCUSSION...
IT`S A MILD EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S. WITH A 40-45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING, WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
10-20 MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT, THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT, SO WE HAVE WARMED LOW TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE.
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASING, MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
OVERNIGHT, BUT REGIONAL 0000 UTC SOUNDINGS SHOWED VERY MEAGER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO
WILL CLIP OUR NORTHERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT. THE FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION APPEAR
TO BE SUFFICIENT TO AT LEAST MENTION A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF A BEAVER TO MCLEAN LINE BETWEEN 5 AM
AND 10 AM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE UP TO 1000 J/KG OF MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE, BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KT
TONIGHT. THEREFORE, IF STORMS DO DEVELOP, THEY MAY CONTAIN SOME SMALL
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS, BUT DUE TO THE MEAGER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR, NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. UPDATED PRODUCTS AND
POINT-N-CLICK FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
AN UPDATED DISCUSSION REGARDING THURSDAY`S SEVERE WEATHER SETUP WILL
BE SENT SHORTLY AFTER DIGESTING THE LATEST MODEL DATA.
JACKSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KAMA AND KDHT (AS
LONG AS STORMS DON`T IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL). HAVE MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT KGUY 15Z-18Z AND 20Z-00Z.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF TSRA AT KAMA AFTER 2130Z, BUT WE DECIDED TO HOLD
OFF ON INCLUDING THIS IN THIS TAF ISSUANCE FOR TWO REASONS:
1) THE COVERAGE OF STORMS MAY BE ISOLATED THROUGH END OF THIS TAF
PERIOD.
2) DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH RESPECT TO THE LOCATION OF A STATIONARY
FRONT WHICH SHOULD SERVE AS THE FOCUS TO DEVELOP STORMS.
HOWEVER, IF A STORM DOES DIRECTLY IMPACT KAMA, LARGE HAIL, WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 55 KT, AND BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
JACKSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FROM TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA THURSDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AND WILL BE LINED
UP JUST EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO BE FOUND LINED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG
INTERSTATE 35 FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL
START TO BREAK DOWN BY TUESDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
ON THURSDAY.
THIS MEANS THAT THE PANHANDLES WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR EAST AND A TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST
FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST. THIS
WILL BRING AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER TO OUR AREA AT LEAST
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY AS MOISTURE IS BROUGHT NORTHWARD ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND THEN BROUGHT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE DEVIL WILL BE IN THE
SURFACE DETAILS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST.
FIRST...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BACKDOOR INTO THE
PANHANDLES TONIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PULL UP STATIONARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THIS
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THIS
BOUNDARY BE WHEN CONVECTION INITIATES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS ARE NOT CLEAR ON JUST EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A
TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THESE STORMS INTERACT WITH
THE BOUNDARY. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AS PLENTY OF GULF
MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT NORTHWARD TO ADD TO THE FUEL. THESE STORMS
WILL ALSO NOT BE MOVING VERY FAST.
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS
THE WESTERN AREAS NEAR THE DRYLINE WHICH WILL BE IN EASTERN NEW
MEXICO/FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES EACH AFTERNOON.
BY MEMORIAL DAY...THE DRYLINE MAY MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES
BY THE AFTERNOON...SO THE BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE IN THESE
AREAS.
WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW
ALOFT MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO HELP EDGE THE DRYLINE EAST OF OUR
AREA.
FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
GIVEN THE CHANCES OF RAIN IN THIS FORECAST.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
KNS/JJ
000
FXUS64 KAMA 230227 AAB
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
927 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.UPDATE...
MAIN CHANGES WERE TO ADD A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES LATE TONIGHT AND ADJUST TEMPS UPWARD
IN MANY LOCATIONS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
IT`S A MILD EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S. WITH A 40-45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING, WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
10-20 MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT, THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT, SO WE HAVE WARMED LOW TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE.
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASING, MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
OVERNIGHT, BUT REGIONAL 0000 UTC SOUNDINGS SHOWED VERY MEAGER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO
WILL CLIP OUR NORTHERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT. THE FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION APPEAR
TO BE SUFFICIENT TO AT LEAST MENTION A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF A BEAVER TO MCLEAN LINE BETWEEN 5 AM
AND 10 AM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE UP TO 1000 J/KG OF MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE, BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KT
TONIGHT. THEREFORE, IF STORMS DO DEVELOP, THEY MAY CONTAIN SOME SMALL
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS, BUT DUE TO THE MEAGER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR, NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. UPDATED PRODUCTS AND
POINT-N-CLICK FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
AN UPDATED DISCUSSION REGARDING THURSDAY`S SEVERE WEATHER SETUP WILL
BE SENT SHORTLY AFTER DIGESTING THE LATEST MODEL DATA.
JACKSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KAMA AND KDHT (AS
LONG AS STORMS DON`T IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL). HAVE MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT KGUY 15Z-18Z AND 20Z-00Z.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF TSRA AT KAMA AFTER 2130Z, BUT WE DECIDED TO HOLD
OFF ON INCLUDING THIS IN THIS TAF ISSUANCE FOR TWO REASONS:
1) THE COVERAGE OF STORMS MAY BE ISOLATED THROUGH END OF THIS TAF
PERIOD.
2) DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH RESPECT TO THE LOCATION OF A STATIONARY
FRONT WHICH SHOULD SERVE AS THE FOCUS TO DEVELOP STORMS.
HOWEVER, IF A STORM DOES DIRECTLY IMPACT KAMA, LARGE HAIL, WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 55 KT, AND BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
JACKSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FROM TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA THURSDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AND WILL BE LINED
UP JUST EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO BE FOUND LINED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG
INTERSTATE 35 FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL
START TO BREAK DOWN BY TUESDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
ON THURSDAY.
THIS MEANS THAT THE PANHANDLES WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR EAST AND A TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST
FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST. THIS
WILL BRING AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER TO OUR AREA AT LEAST
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY AS MOISTURE IS BROUGHT NORTHWARD ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND THEN BROUGHT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE DEVIL WILL BE IN THE
SURFACE DETAILS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST.
FIRST...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BACKDOOR INTO THE
PANHANDLES TONIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PULL UP STATIONARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THIS
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THIS
BOUNDARY BE WHEN CONVECTION INITIATES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS ARE NOT CLEAR ON JUST EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A
TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THESE STORMS INTERACT WITH
THE BOUNDARY. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AS PLENTY OF GULF
MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT NORTHWARD TO ADD TO THE FUEL. THESE STORMS
WILL ALSO NOT BE MOVING VERY FAST.
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS
THE WESTERN AREAS NEAR THE DRYLINE WHICH WILL BE IN EASTERN NEW
MEXICO/FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES EACH AFTERNOON.
BY MEMORIAL DAY...THE DRYLINE MAY MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES
BY THE AFTERNOON...SO THE BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE IN THESE
AREAS.
WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW
ALOFT MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO HELP EDGE THE DRYLINE EAST OF OUR
AREA.
FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
GIVEN THE CHANCES OF RAIN IN THIS FORECAST.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
KNS/JJ
000
FXUS64 KAMA 222336 AAA
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
636 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KAMA AND KDHT (AS
LONG AS STORMS DON`T IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL). HAVE MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT KGUY 15Z-18Z AND 20Z-00Z.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF TSRA AT KAMA AFTER 2130Z, BUT WE DECIDED TO HOLD
OFF ON INCLUDING THIS IN THIS TAF ISSUANCE FOR TWO REASONS:
1) THE COVERAGE OF STORMS MAY BE ISOLATED THROUGH END OF THIS TAF
PERIOD.
2) DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH RESPECT TO THE LOCATION OF A STATIONARY
FRONT WHICH SHOULD SERVE AS THE FOCUS TO DEVELOP STORMS.
HOWEVER, IF A STORM DOES DIRECTLY IMPACT KAMA, LARGE HAIL, WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 55 KT, AND BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
JACKSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FROM TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA THURSDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AND WILL BE LINED
UP JUST EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO BE FOUND LINED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG
INTERSTATE 35 FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL
START TO BREAK DOWN BY TUESDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
ON THURSDAY.
THIS MEANS THAT THE PANHANDLES WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR EAST AND A TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST
FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST. THIS
WILL BRING AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER TO OUR AREA AT LEAST
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY AS MOISTURE IS BROUGHT NORTHWARD ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND THEN BROUGHT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE DEVIL WILL BE IN THE
SURFACE DETAILS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST.
FIRST...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BACKDOOR INTO THE
PANHANDLES TONIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PULL UP STATIONARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THIS
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THIS
BOUNDARY BE WHEN CONVECTION INITIATES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS ARE NOT CLEAR ON JUST EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A
TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THESE STORMS INTERACT WITH
THE BOUNDARY. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AS PLENTY OF GULF
MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT NORTHWARD TO ADD TO THE FUEL. THESE STORMS
WILL ALSO NOT BE MOVING VERY FAST.
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS
THE WESTERN AREAS NEAR THE DRYLINE WHICH WILL BE IN EASTERN NEW
MEXICO/FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES EACH AFTERNOON.
BY MEMORIAL DAY...THE DRYLINE MAY MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES
BY THE AFTERNOON...SO THE BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE IN THESE
AREAS.
WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW
ALOFT MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO HELP EDGE THE DRYLINE EAST OF OUR
AREA.
FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
GIVEN THE CHANCES OF RAIN IN THIS FORECAST.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
99/99
000
FXUS64 KAMA 221957
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
257 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FROM TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA THURSDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AND WILL BE LINED
UP JUST EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO BE FOUND LINED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG
INTERSTATE 35 FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL
START TO BREAK DOWN BY TUESDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
ON THURSDAY.
THIS MEANS THAT THE PANHANDLES WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR EAST AND A TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST
FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST. THIS
WILL BRING AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER TO OUR AREA AT LEAST
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY AS MOISTURE IS BROUGHT NORTHWARD ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND THEN BROUGHT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE DEVIL WILL BE IN THE
SURFACE DETAILS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST.
FIRST...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BACKDOOR INTO THE
PANHANDLES TONIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PULL UP STATIONARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THIS
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THIS
BOUNDARY BE WHEN CONVECTION INITIATES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS ARE NOT CLEAR ON JUST EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A
TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THESE STORMS INTERACT WITH
THE BOUNDARY. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AS PLENTY OF GULF
MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT NORTHWARD TO ADD TO THE FUEL. THESE STORMS
WILL ALSO NOT BE MOVING VERY FAST.
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS
THE WESTERN AREAS NEAR THE DRYLINE WHICH WILL BE IN EASTERN NEW
MEXICO/FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES EACH AFTERNOON.
BY MEMORIAL DAY...THE DRYLINE MAY MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES
BY THE AFTERNOON...SO THE BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE IN THESE
AREAS.
WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW
ALOFT MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO HELP EDGE THE DRYLINE EAST OF OUR
AREA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
GIVEN THE CHANCES OF RAIN IN THIS FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 57 83 60 81 60 / 10 50 30 30 30
BEAVER OK 54 75 59 84 63 / 10 20 20 20 20
BOISE CITY OK 49 73 58 82 59 / 10 20 20 20 30
BORGER TX 58 80 59 83 64 / 10 30 30 30 20
BOYS RANCH TX 56 87 64 87 63 / 10 30 30 30 30
CANYON TX 57 86 61 84 61 / 10 50 30 30 30
CLARENDON TX 61 83 64 80 63 / 10 50 40 30 20
DALHART TX 51 82 58 83 59 / 10 30 20 30 30
GUYMON OK 51 78 59 81 63 / 10 20 20 20 20
HEREFORD TX 57 90 61 84 59 / 10 30 30 40 30
LIPSCOMB TX 56 76 61 80 65 / 10 20 30 20 20
PAMPA TX 57 77 58 79 61 / 10 30 30 20 20
SHAMROCK TX 56 81 61 79 65 / 10 50 40 20 20
WELLINGTON TX 58 87 64 81 64 / 10 50 50 20 20
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
09/15
000
FXUS64 KAMA 221744 AAB
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1244 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS. NO THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED NEAR TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
EXPECTED TO GUST NO HIGHER THAN 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON...AND TO THEN
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY EARLY THIS EVENING. BOUNDARY SLIPS INTO
NORTHERN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA AROUND 12Z THURSDAY...WITH SCATTERED
LAYER AROUND 1500 FEET EXPECTED AT KGUY. OTHERWISE...NO CLOUDS BELOW
10000 FEET FORECAST FOR THE TERMINALS. NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
FORESEEN.
COCKRELL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONE AREA OF CONCERN IS A LOW LEVEL JET
THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 03Z...WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER...THINK THIS IS UNLIKELY GIVEN THAT SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD STAY BETWEEN 10 AND 15KT...AND THE MAX WIND SPEED IN THE JET
IS EXPECTED TO BE 40KT...THUS SHEAR VALUES SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
JOHNSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THE TEXAS TECH WRF AND THE ECMWF INDICATING THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES REMAINING DRY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. UPPER RIDGE
TO BUILD IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND THEN BREAKING DOWN OR
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE PANHANDLES BY LATE THURSDAY. UPPER FLOW
THEN TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO LIFTS NORTHWARD BY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO AND ALLOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE PANHANDLES WHICH BECOMES
STATIONARY. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE PANHANDLES THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. A DRYLINE SETS UP ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY
THE END OF THE WEEK AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES NORTH AND WESTWARD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE.
AN ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PROVIDES PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER THE UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW
MAY RESULT IN LOW CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLY FOG WHICH MAY LINGER INTO
MUCH OF THE MORNING LATE THIS WEEK. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH DIURNAL HEATING AND MIXING CAN OCCUR WHICH SHOULD
TAKE PLACE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WILL LOWER CONFIDENCE OF SEVERE THREAT SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY FOR NOW WITH LESSER CONFIDENCE THIS WEEKEND. AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITS THE PANHANDLES TO THE EAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE
ON SATURDAY MAY RESULT IN A LATER TIMING FOR ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVES APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA ON SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW.
THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS WEEKEND WITH
THE DRYLINE HANGING BACK TO THE WEST IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND
DRYLINE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF THE PANHANDLES AND AN ACTIVE
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW CONTINUING TO PREVAIL...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SCHNEIDER
FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 TO 20
MPH OR THE MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 15 TO 20
PERCENT.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
03/15
000
FXUS64 KAMA 221124 AAA
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
624 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONE AREA OF CONCERN IS A LOW LEVEL JET
THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 03Z...WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER...THINK THIS IS UNLIKELY GIVEN THAT SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD STAY BETWEEN 10 AND 15KT...AND THE MAX WIND SPEED IN THE JET
IS EXPECTED TO BE 40KT...THUS SHEAR VALUES SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
JOHNSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THE TEXAS TECH WRF AND THE ECMWF INDICATING THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES REMAINING DRY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. UPPER RIDGE
TO BUILD IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND THEN BREAKING DOWN OR
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE PANHANDLES BY LATE THURSDAY. UPPER FLOW
THEN TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO LIFTS NORTHWARD BY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO AND ALLOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE PANHANDLES WHICH BECOMES
STATIONARY. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE PANHANDLES THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. A DRYLINE SETS UP ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY
THE END OF THE WEEK AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES NORTH AND WESTWARD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE.
AN ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PROVIDES PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER THE UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW
MAY RESULT IN LOW CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLY FOG WHICH MAY LINGER INTO
MUCH OF THE MORNING LATE THIS WEEK. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH DIURNAL HEATING AND MIXING CAN OCCUR WHICH SHOULD
TAKE PLACE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WILL LOWER CONFIDENCE OF SEVERE THREAT SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY FOR NOW WITH LESSER CONFIDENCE THIS WEEKEND. AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITS THE PANHANDLES TO THE EAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE
ON SATURDAY MAY RESULT IN A LATER TIMING FOR ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVES APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA ON SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW.
THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS WEEKEND WITH
THE DRYLINE HANGING BACK TO THE WEST IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND
DRYLINE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF THE PANHANDLES AND AN ACTIVE
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW CONTINUING TO PREVAIL...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SCHNEIDER
FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 TO 20
MPH OR THE MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 15 TO 20
PERCENT.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
16/11
000
FXUS64 KAMA 220903
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
403 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE TEXAS TECH WRF AND THE ECMWF INDICATING THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES REMAINING DRY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. UPPER RIDGE
TO BUILD IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND THEN BREAKING DOWN OR
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE PANHANDLES BY LATE THURSDAY. UPPER FLOW
THEN TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO LIFTS NORTHWARD BY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO AND ALLOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE PANHANDLES WHICH BECOMES
STATIONARY. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE PANHANDLES THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. A DRYLINE SETS UP ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY
THE END OF THE WEEK AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES NORTH AND WESTWARD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE.
AN ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PROVIDES PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER THE UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW
MAY RESULT IN LOW CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLY FOG WHICH MAY LINGER INTO
MUCH OF THE MORNING LATE THIS WEEK. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH DIURNAL HEATING AND MIXING CAN OCCUR WHICH SHOULD
TAKE PLACE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WILL LOWER CONFIDENCE OF SEVERE THREAT SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY FOR NOW WITH LESSER CONFIDENCE THIS WEEKEND. AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITS THE PANHANDLES TO THE EAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE
ON SATURDAY MAY RESULT IN A LATER TIMING FOR ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVES APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA ON SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW.
THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS WEEKEND WITH
THE DRYLINE HANGING BACK TO THE WEST IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND
DRYLINE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF THE PANHANDLES AND AN ACTIVE
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW CONTINUING TO PREVAIL...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 TO 20
MPH OR THE MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 15 TO 20
PERCENT.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 87 58 86 60 82 / 5 10 30 30 20
BEAVER OK 85 52 76 59 83 / 5 10 40 40 20
BOISE CITY OK 86 50 77 56 82 / 10 10 30 30 20
BORGER TX 89 60 84 61 83 / 5 10 30 40 20
BOYS RANCH TX 90 57 85 62 85 / 5 10 20 30 20
CANYON TX 87 57 87 60 82 / 5 10 30 30 20
CLARENDON TX 88 61 84 64 84 / 5 10 30 40 20
DALHART TX 89 52 83 58 84 / 5 10 30 30 20
GUYMON OK 86 53 77 58 83 / 5 10 40 40 20
HEREFORD TX 88 58 88 59 83 / 5 10 20 30 20
LIPSCOMB TX 84 54 81 60 81 / 5 10 40 40 20
PAMPA TX 84 58 83 60 80 / 5 10 40 40 20
SHAMROCK TX 85 57 84 62 83 / 5 10 30 40 20
WELLINGTON TX 90 60 85 65 85 / 5 10 30 40 20
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
16/11
000
FXUS64 KAMA 220446 AAB
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1146 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/ LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH
ON WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS BY MID MORNING. WINDS WILL
BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10-12 KTS.
SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF FORECAST PERIOD WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS BY THURS EVENING.
CLK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. A
FEW SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE CAN MOVE OVER
THE KDHT TERMINAL BUT NOT EXPECTING RAIN TO REDUCE VISBYS BELOW VFR.
LIGHT MAINLY SOUTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 KTS THIS EVENING WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 15 KTS MID MORNING WED AND CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z THURS.
CLK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...
HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW CHANGES TO EARLIER FORECAST. FOR TONIGHT...
HAVE RETAINED LOW POPS THIS EVENING IN NORTHWEST PART OF FORECAST
AREA...AND HAVE INTRODUCED SAME FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT...DUE TO
EXPECTED STRENGTHENING OF NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET.
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS EASTERN ONE THIRD OF AREA...ALONG EXPECTED INSTABILITY AXIS
ALONG MODEST CONVERGENCE ZONE. MOISTURE DEEPENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WARRANTING CONTINUATION OF EVENING POPS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN 2/3 OF
AREA. HAVE INTRODUCED LOW POPS INTO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALONG NOSE OF SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET NEAR LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE.
ON THURSDAY...HAVE LOWERED MORNING POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE...AND HAVE
KEPT POPS DURING AFTERNOON. RICH AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...AUGMENTED BY DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW. HAVE INCREASED POPS
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS DRYLINE RETREATS AND 850 MB UPSLOPE FLOW OF
AROUND 50 DEVELOPS. CONCUR WITH SPC THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE REORIENTED POPS ON FRIDAY...DUE TO EXPECTED POSITION OF DRYLINE
IN FAR WESTERN ZONES. HAVE KEPT POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS DEEP RICH MOISTURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVERHEAD AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN HALF OF AREA ON MONDAY DUE TO EXPECTED POSITION
OF DRYLINE. 03
COCKRELL
FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY. 03
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
05/15
000
FXUS64 KAMA 212346 AAA
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
646 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. A
FEW SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE CAN MOVE OVER
THE KDHT TERMINAL BUT NOT EXPECTING RAIN TO REDUCE VISBYS BELOW VFR.
LIGHT MAINLY SOUTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 KTS THIS EVENING WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 15 KTS MID MORNING WED AND CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z THURS.
CLK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...
HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW CHANGES TO EARLIER FORECAST. FOR TONIGHT...
HAVE RETAINED LOW POPS THIS EVENING IN NORTHWEST PART OF FORECAST
AREA...AND HAVE INTRODUCED SAME FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT...DUE TO
EXPECTED STRENGTHENING OF NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET.
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS EASTERN ONE THIRD OF AREA...ALONG EXPECTED INSTABILITY AXIS
ALONG MODEST CONVERGENCE ZONE. MOISTURE DEEPENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WARRANTING CONTINUATION OF EVENING POPS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN 2/3 OF
AREA. HAVE INTRODUCED LOW POPS INTO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALONG NOSE OF SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET NEAR LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE.
ON THURSDAY...HAVE LOWERED MORNING POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE...AND HAVE
KEPT POPS DURING AFTERNOON. RICH AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...AUGMENTED BY DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW. HAVE INCREASED POPS
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS DRYLINE RETREATS AND 850 MB UPSLOPE FLOW OF
AROUND 50 DEVELOPS. CONCUR WITH SPC THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE REORIENTED POPS ON FRIDAY...DUE TO EXPECTED POSITION OF DRYLINE
IN FAR WESTERN ZONES. HAVE KEPT POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS DEEP RICH MOISTURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVERHEAD AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN HALF OF AREA ON MONDAY DUE TO EXPECTED POSITION
OF DRYLINE. 03
COCKRELL
FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY. 03
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
05/15
000
FXUS64 KAMA 212044
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
330 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...
HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW CHANGES TO EARLIER FORECAST. FOR TONIGHT...
HAVE RETAINED LOW POPS THIS EVENING IN NORTHWEST PART OF FORECAST
AREA...AND HAVE INTRODUCED SAME FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT...DUE TO
EXPECTED STRENGTHENING OF NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET.
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS EASTERN ONE THIRD OF AREA...ALONG EXPECTED INSTABILITY AXIS
ALONG MODEST CONVERGENCE ZONE. MOISTURE DEEPENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WARRANTING CONTINUATION OF EVENING POPS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN 2/3 OF
AREA. HAVE INTRODUCED LOW POPS INTO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALONG NOSE OF SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET NEAR LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE.
ON THURSDAY...HAVE LOWERED MORNING POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE...AND HAVE
KEPT POPS DURING AFTERNOON. RICH AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...AUGMENTED BY DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW. HAVE INCREASED POPS
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS DRYLINE RETREATS AND 850 MB UPSLOPE FLOW OF
AROUND 50 DEVELOPS. CONCUR WITH SPC THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE REORIENTED POPS ON FRIDAY...DUE TO EXPECTED POSITION OF DRYLINE
IN FAR WESTERN ZONES. HAVE KEPT POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS DEEP RICH MOISTURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVERHEAD AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN HALF OF AREA ON MONDAY DUE TO EXPECTED POSITION
OF DRYLINE. 03
COCKRELL
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY. 03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 51 88 56 89 59 / 10 10 20 30 30
BEAVER OK 47 86 51 78 58 / 10 20 20 40 40
BOISE CITY OK 46 86 50 82 56 / 20 5 20 30 30
BORGER TX 54 90 57 86 59 / 20 20 20 30 40
BOYS RANCH TX 51 92 55 89 61 / 10 5 10 20 30
CANYON TX 50 88 56 89 59 / 10 10 10 30 30
CLARENDON TX 52 89 59 88 63 / 10 20 20 30 40
DALHART TX 45 89 50 86 57 / 20 5 10 30 30
GUYMON OK 46 87 51 79 59 / 20 10 20 40 40
HEREFORD TX 50 89 57 90 58 / 10 5 10 20 30
LIPSCOMB TX 48 85 54 78 61 / 10 20 20 40 40
PAMPA TX 51 85 54 86 57 / 20 20 20 40 40
SHAMROCK TX 51 86 55 85 62 / 5 20 20 30 40
WELLINGTON TX 52 91 58 87 64 / 5 20 20 30 40
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
09/03
000
FXUS64 KAMA 211744
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1244 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF SOME MVFR BLDU AT KGUY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT KAMA THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT THE THREAT IS SLIGHT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE INCLUSION AT
THIS TIME.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND THEN
SW LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AT KDHT AND KAMA. AT KGUY...STRONG NW
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT.
SIMPSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...A PERIOD OF SHRA AND TSRA IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 16Z
AT KAMA...KDHT...AND KGUY. KAMA HAS THE HIGHEST RISK OF ANY TERMINAL
TO SEE TSRA. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA IS POSSIBLE AT KDHT BETWEEN 18 AND
03Z...THOUGH THIS APPEARS TO UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
JOHNSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
UPDATE...
CONVECTION INCREASING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
MOVING NORTHEAST. UPDATED PUBLIC FORECAST PRODUCTS TO SWITCH FROM
SHOWERS TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.
ALL PUBLIC PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED AND SENT.
SCHNEIDER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. ECMWF SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND UPPER
TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING.
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH LATER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING MAY ALLOW CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE RETAINED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT BUMPED UP POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WEDNESDAY WILL BE BRIEF AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO WHICH ALLOWS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE PANHANDLES AND A DRYLINE
DEVELOPS ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTH AND WEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERE POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXISTS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND
ALLOWS FOR SHORTWAVES TO TRACK NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
UPPER HIGH TO BUILD IN OVER NORTHERN MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BUILD
NORTHWARD. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNSEASONABLY
COOL CONDITIONS TODAY AND THEN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SCHNEIDER
FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EITHER THE 20 FOOT WIND
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 TO 20 MPH OR THE MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 15 TO 20 PERCENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
09/03
|
