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000
FXUS64 KAMA 282305 AAA
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
605 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.Aviation...
Low clouds in the MVFR range are expected to spread across the AMA
and GUY TAF sites overnight. Cigs will improve by late morning on
Sunday into the VFR range. Thunderstorms should develop during the
afternoon on Sunday with AMA having the best chance, so have inserted
a prob 30 group there. Southeast winds will be around 10 knots
overnight, then they should veer some on Sunday and then they will
increase and get gusty by afternoon.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /Issued 347 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/

Short Term....TONIGHT...Development and intensification of low-
level jet tonight may support isolated showers and thunderstorms past
the early evening hours. Have increased areal extent of pops a bit
farther east before 06z, and have introduced same into north central
and northeast sections for late night hours after 06z. Otherwise,
expect widespread cloud cover to be in place by 12z, owing to
expected strong warm air advection as depicted at 850 mb.

Cockrell

Long Term...Sunday through Friday night...An upper low over the
desert southwest will slowly move east through the day on Sunday,
placing the region under southwesterly flow. In response to the
approaching weather system, a surge of low level moisture due to a
passing warm front will move across the area before halting around
the Oklahoma & Kansas state line by Sunday afternoon. An ejecting
negatively tilted shortwave trough will aid in the development of a
lee cyclone over southeastern Colorado and strengthen the dryline
over the far western combined Panhandles. With the combined
Panhandles in a warm and moist environment, MLCAPE based upon current
forecasted temperatures should reach between 1500-2500 J/kg Sunday
afternoon, with CIN eroding by early afternoon. Effective bulk shear
varies depending on which guidance is used, but present thinking is
that it will be around 20-30 kts in the northern combined Panhandles
increasing to 35-45 kts further south. With diffluence aloft, and
strong isentropic lift along both the dryline to the west & the warm
front to the northeast, dynamics are favorable for strong to severe
thunderstorms. Storms may possibly form near the warm front in the
northeastern portions of our area with slow forward propagation.
Thunderstorms that may form along the dryline may grow upscale into a
forward propagating line, with discrete supercells ahead of it Sunday
evening. Large hail, damaging winds, heavy rainfall, and an isolated
tornado or two (primarily over southern Texas Panhandle) is possible.
As the line of storms moves across the area, a cold pool may develop
along and behind these storms transitioning the threat towards strong
winds in association with a gust front along with heavy rainfall
Sunday evening.

On Monday, the upper low is not expected to make much forward
progression across Arizona placing the region under continued
northwesterly flow. Another negatively tilted shortwave trough may
move across the area midday Monday, but dryline placement and
available instability is in question. Any convection that occurs
Sunday may leave a cold pool across the southern combined Panhandles,
with model guidance suggestive of the dryline holding along the NM/TX
stateline. Should the boundary layer recover from Sunday`s activity,
there is significant instability available east of the dryline for
convective activity. Present guidance supports 2000-3000 J/kg of
MLCAPE, but shear will be light at 20-30 kts. In addition, steering
flow is quite light with forward mean layer wind speeds supportive of
about 20 kts of forward motion. Strong to severe thunderstorms are
possible, with hail and damaging winds being the primary threats.

On Tuesday into Wednesday, the upper low is progged to remain cutoff
over Arizona keeping the region under southwesterly flow. An upper
low progressing across the far northern tier of the U.S. will help
bring northwesterly flow down the front range of the Rockies, with a
cold front moving across late Tuesday night into early Wednesday
morning. As moist southeasterly flow is progged to continue into our
area, and the dryline remaining over the NM/TX stateline, another
round of thunderstorms is possible Tuesday afternoon. Based upon
forecasted temperatures (upper 70s - lower 80s) on Tuesday, present
MLCAPE values are around 2000-3000 J/kg with about 30 to 40 kts of
bulk shear possible. This will allow the threat for large hail,
damaging winds, and possibly an isolated tornado to continue.

Wednesday should present with lingering shower and thunderstorm
activity as a cold front helps in pushing moisture southward.
Differences in model guidance places some questions as to whether the
frontal boundary will clear the Panhandles before or after max
heating. Have opted to go with the potential for the boundary to
clear the Panhandles, with high temperatures dropping down into the
lower to mid 70s.

Present model guidance shows that Thursday and Friday will be a much
quieter period as the region is on the eastern periphery of a ridge
of high pressure, with the cold front pushed against the New Mexico
Rockies. Have opted to keep out mention of precipitation due to what
looks to be dry northerly and northeasterly flow. Highs on Thursday
should be in the lower to mid 70s, recovering into the upper 70s to
lower 80s by Friday.

Bieda

Aviation...Previous Discussion...18z TAFs...
Light surface winds will trend to south and southeast as zonal mid-
level flow induces development of lee-side trof.  Expect to see some
high-based cumulus clouds this afternoon.  Low-level jet develops
overnight, strengthening before sunrise, with significant moisture
return commencing.  Warm air advection will support stratus cloud
development.  Timing of onset of MVFR ceilings remains uncertain at
this time, but this forecast calls for occurrence at or before 12z
Sunday at KAMA and KGUY.  Conditions expected to deteriorate further
beyond time frame of this forecast, with scattered to numerous
thunderstorms developing Sunday afternoon.

Cockrell

Hydrology...A strong southeasterly moisture flow will occur Sunday
and is expected to persist through about Tuesday across the combined
Panhandles. Organized thunderstorms with slow forward motion will
bring the possibility for heavy rain across the area Sunday through
Tuesday. Precipitable water values are forecasted to be between 1.25
to 1.50 inches, which would be among the highest observed for this
time of year, with forecasted soundings suggestive of efficient rain
producing thunderstorms. Any slow moving thunderstorms will place
areas that receive them under a threat of localized flooding or flash
flooding. Instances of creek and river flooding, especially over the
southeastern Texas Panhandle, is possible due to previous rainfall.

Bieda

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/11





000
FXUS64 KAMA 282047
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
347 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.Short Term....TONIGHT...Development and intensification of low-
level jet tonight may support isolated showers and thunderstorms past
the early evening hours. Have increased areal extent of pops a bit
farther east before 06z, and have introduced same into north central
and northeast sections for late night hours after 06z. Otherwise,
expect widespread cloud cover to be in place by 12z, owing to
expected strong warm air advection as depicted at 850 mb.

Cockrell

&&

.Long Term...Sunday through Friday night...An upper low over the
desert southwest will slowly move east through the day on Sunday,
placing the region under southwesterly flow. In response to the
approaching weather system, a surge of low level moisture due to a
passing warm front will move across the area before halting around
the Oklahoma & Kansas state line by Sunday afternoon. An ejecting
negatively tilted shortwave trough will aid in the development of a
lee cyclone over southeastern Colorado and strengthen the dryline
over the far western combined Panhandles. With the combined
Panhandles in a warm and moist environment, MLCAPE based upon current
forecasted temperatures should reach between 1500-2500 J/kg Sunday
afternoon, with CIN eroding by early afternoon. Effective bulk shear
varies depending on which guidance is used, but present thinking is
that it will be around 20-30 kts in the northern combined Panhandles
increasing to 35-45 kts further south. With diffluence aloft, and
strong isentropic lift along both the dryline to the west & the warm
front to the northeast, dynamics are favorable for strong to severe
thunderstorms. Storms may possibly form near the warm front in the
northeastern portions of our area with slow forward propagation.
Thunderstorms that may form along the dryline may grow upscale into a
forward propagating line, with discrete supercells ahead of it Sunday
evening. Large hail, damaging winds, heavy rainfall, and an isolated
tornado or two (primarily over southern Texas Panhandle) is possible.
As the line of storms moves across the area, a cold pool may develop
along and behind these storms transitioning the threat towards strong
winds in association with a gust front along with heavy rainfall
Sunday evening.

On Monday, the upper low is not expected to make much forward
progression across Arizona placing the region under continued
northwesterly flow. Another negatively tilted shortwave trough may
move across the area midday Monday, but dryline placement and
available instability is in question. Any convection that occurs
Sunday may leave a cold pool across the southern combined Panhandles,
with model guidance suggestive of the dryline holding along the NM/TX
stateline. Should the boundary layer recover from Sunday`s activity,
there is significant instability available east of the dryline for
convective activity. Present guidance supports 2000-3000 J/kg of
MLCAPE, but shear will be light at 20-30 kts. In addition, steering
flow is quite light with forward mean layer wind speeds supportive of
about 20 kts of forward motion. Strong to severe thunderstorms are
possible, with hail and damaging winds being the primary threats.

On Tuesday into Wednesday, the upper low is progged to remain cutoff
over Arizona keeping the region under southwesterly flow. An upper
low progressing across the far northern tier of the U.S. will help
bring northwesterly flow down the front range of the Rockies, with a
cold front moving across late Tuesday night into early Wednesday
morning. As moist southeasterly flow is progged to continue into our
area, and the dryline remaining over the NM/TX stateline, another
round of thunderstorms is possible Tuesday afternoon. Based upon
forecasted temperatures (upper 70s - lower 80s) on Tuesday, present
MLCAPE values are around 2000-3000 J/kg with about 30 to 40 kts of
bulk shear possible. This will allow the threat for large hail,
damaging winds, and possibly an isolated tornado to continue.

Wednesday should present with lingering shower and thunderstorm
activity as a cold front helps in pushing moisture southward.
Differences in model guidance places some questions as to whether the
frontal boundary will clear the Panhandles before or after max
heating. Have opted to go with the potential for the boundary to
clear the Panhandles, with high temperatures dropping down into the
lower to mid 70s.

Present model guidance shows that Thursday and Friday will be a much
quieter period as the region is on the eastern periphery of a ridge
of high pressure, with the cold front pushed against the New Mexico
Rockies. Have opted to keep out mention of precipitation due to what
looks to be dry northerly and northeasterly flow. Highs on Thursday
should be in the lower to mid 70s, recovering into the upper 70s to
lower 80s by Friday.

Bieda

&&

.Aviation...Previous Discussion...18z TAFs...
Light surface winds will trend to south and southeast as zonal mid-
level flow induces development of lee-side trof.  Expect to see some
high-based cumulus clouds this afternoon.  Low-level jet develops
overnight, strengthening before sunrise, with significant moisture
return commencing.  Warm air advection will support stratus cloud
development.  Timing of onset of MVFR ceilings remains uncertain at
this time, but this forecast calls for occurrence at or before 12z
Sunday at KAMA and KGUY.  Conditions expected to deteriorate further
beyond time frame of this forecast, with scattered to numerous
thunderstorms developing Sunday afternoon.

Cockrell

&&

.Hydrology...A strong southeasterly moisture flow will occur Sunday
and is expected to persist through about Tuesday across the combined
Panhandles. Organized thunderstorms with slow forward motion will
bring the possibility for heavy rain across the area Sunday through
Tuesday. Precipitable water values are forecasted to be between 1.25
to 1.50 inches, which would be among the highest observed for this
time of year, with forecasted soundings suggestive of efficient rain
producing thunderstorms. Any slow moving thunderstorms will place
areas that receive them under a threat of localized flooding or flash
flooding. Instances of creek and river flooding, especially over the
southeastern Texas Panhandle, is possible due to previous rainfall.

Bieda

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...
Amarillo TX                84  58  81  57  81 /   5   5  60  50  30
Beaver OK                  86  58  85  57  84 /   5  20  50  50  30
Boise City OK              79  52  82  53  84 /  20  20  30  30  20
Borger TX                  86  62  82  60  84 /   5   5  60  50  30
Boys Ranch TX              87  57  84  57  86 /   5   5  50  30  20
Canyon TX                  85  58  84  57  84 /   5   5  50  40  30
Clarendon TX               84  61  81  61  80 /   0   5  50  70  30
Dalhart TX                 83  53  83  55  85 /  10  10  30  30  20
Guymon OK                  83  57  84  57  86 /  10  20  40  40  30
Hereford TX                85  57  85  58  86 /   5   5  40  30  30
Lipscomb TX                86  60  82  58  80 /   0  20  50  50  30
Pampa TX                   84  60  81  58  80 /   5   5  60  60  30
Shamrock TX                86  61  83  61  80 /   0   5  50  60  40
Wellington TX              87  63  85  63  82 /   0   5  50  60  40

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

3/98





000
FXUS64 KAMA 280940
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
440 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.Short Term...
Weak ridging will build in today resulting in warmer temperatures
and generally dry conditions. The exception will be in the western
Oklahoma Panhandle and the far northwest Texas Panhandle where we
have retained low precipitation probabilities late this afternoon
and evening. Forecast soundings suggest deep mixing and small MLCAPE
values supportive of isolated convection, primarily focused near the
Raton Ridge. This activity will move east affecting the above
mentioned areas by late afternoon or early evening. Dry sub-cloud
layer is probably extensive enough for mostly virga except with the
most robust convection. Even then amounts will be light.

A surge of low level moisture is expected late tonight as
southeasterly winds strengthen in response to the approach of the
next system. Adjusted cloud cover upward late tonight through
tomorrow morning to account for stratus that will likely develop
with moisture advection. By afternoon, warming of a more moist
boundary layer should contribute to a fairly unstable environment.
Most models show CIN eroding by mid day or early afternoon and
convection should develop by then. Mid level flow is not
particularly strong and although storm depth shear may be enough for
at least weak storm organization, storm motions should be fairly
slow. Cold pool formation may ultimately drive/accelerate
propagation east or southeastward. Spatial and temporal detail in
how this will evolve is not completely clear at this point with
varying model solutions. Large hail and damaging winds will be
threats with storms that form Sunday afternoon, probably weighted
toward large hail initially and then evolving into more of a wind
threat as cold pool matures. Heavy rain will also be a threat given
increasingly deep moisture and slow storm motions. Activity should
shift east into Oklahoma overnight but kept low probabilities in for
the entire area the whole night given proximity of upper trough
still to our west and presence of at least weak ascent.

&&

.Long Term...
The Panhandles remain under southwest flow aloft on Monday. An
embedded shortwave trough is shown to lift through this southwest
flow during the afternoon hours as a dryline works it`s way across
the Panhandles. There is some uncertainty as to how far east the
dryline will make it, but given earlier precip, there is an argument
for the further west position displayed by a few medium range
models. The further west placement means a greater part of the area
would be opened up for thunderstorm activity during the afternoon
hours. Models show a fair amount of available instability for any
storms to work with but the limiting factor could be weak shear of
20kt to 30kt. Strong to severe storms are possible with hail and
damaging wind being the primary hazards. There could also be a
locally heavy rain threat across the southeastern Texas Panhandle
with forecast PWATS near the 1.5 inch mark.

On Tuesday, we will have a cold front moving towards the area but
this frontal passage is expected after peak heating. The result is a
surface feature for convection to initiate along across the
Panhandles. Mixed layer instability is shown to be in the 1500-2000
J/kg range, but the difference from Monday is that deep layer shear
is expected to be far better. This results in hail, damaging wind,
and a tornado or two being possible. The tornado threat appears to
be limited to a brief window during the evening hours as surface
winds back slightly to increase the low level helicity. Any heavy
rain threat continues to be targeted at the southeastern Texas
Panhandle where PWATS are forecast in the 1.5 to 1.75 inch range.

A few lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
morning before clearing as upper level ridging builds in from the
west. As the ridge continues to builds in, we should stay fairly dry
on Thursday. On Friday there is a chance mountain convection across
northeastern New Mexico could sneak into the far northwestern corner
of the combined Panhandles but these storms would diminish quickly
after entering the Panhandles.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...
Amarillo TX                85  58  83  58  82 /   5   5  60  60  30
Beaver OK                  85  59  85  60  83 /   5  10  60  50  30
Boise City OK              80  52  83  54  83 /  20  20  30  20  20
Borger TX                  86  62  84  62  84 /   5   5  60  60  30
Boys Ranch TX              86  58  85  58  86 /   5   5  60  40  20
Canyon TX                  87  59  84  59  83 /   5   5  60  50  30
Clarendon TX               84  61  82  62  80 /   0   5  50  70  40
Dalhart TX                 83  55  84  55  84 /  10  10  40  30  20
Guymon OK                  84  57  85  59  84 /  10  10  60  30  30
Hereford TX                87  59  84  59  87 /   5   5  60  40  30
Lipscomb TX                85  61  83  60  81 /   0  10  60  60  40
Pampa TX                   84  61  82  61  81 /   5   5  60  70  30
Shamrock TX                86  62  83  61  81 /   0   5  50  70  40
Wellington TX              88  64  85  63  82 /   0   5  40  70  40

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/14





000
FXUS64 KAMA 280123 AAA
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
823 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.Update...
Some minor tweaks made to this evening`s forecast. Light showers
moving into the western sections of the Texas Panhandle, but very
little if any moisture is expected to hit the ground.

Garcia

&&

.Prev Discussion... /Issued 618 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

Aviation...
Gusty winds should continue for another couple of hours at GUY and
DHT, winds at AMA should remain at or below 10 knots through this
forecast. A TSRA may affect DHT early in this forecast...so have
inserted a tempo group for this possibility. Skies should remain VFR
for all sites through this forecast. North and northwest winds will
flip around to the south by early afternoon on Saturday, but speeds
should remain around 10 knots or less.

Prev Discussion... /Issued 317 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

Short Term...Tonight...Shortwave trof moving rapidly through base
of mid- level trof will generate light precipitation in the very near
term, primarily along post-frontal convergence zone currently running
from near Beaver to Borger to Amarillo. However, expect that
shortwave trof`s influence will depart before 6 PM, with chances for
measurable precipitation remaining miniscule. Expect clouds to
decrease overnight with overnight low temperatures mainly in the 45
to 55 degree range.

Cockrell

Long Term...Saturday through Thursday night...A shortwave ridge will
rapidly pass over the combined Panhandles on Saturday ahead of an
incoming shortwave trough Saturday afternoon. Weak isentropic lift in
association with passing shortwave & vorticity maximum will present
a slight chance of thunderstorms moving east across the Oklahoma and
far northern Texas Panhandles. Instability with convection will be
limited, as MLCAPE is forecasted to be around 300-500 J/kg, but a
significant inverted-V signature suggests that there is potential for
gusty winds with any shower or thunderstorm activity. This shortwave
should clear the area by Saturday night ending chances of convection
during the evening hours.

For Sunday, a complicated weather patterns is expected to develop
over the combined Panhandles. This section of the discussion will
focus on the severe weather potential, with an adjoining hydrology
section provided below. An slow moving upper level low over southern
California will bring southwesterly flow into the region. A
negatively tilted shortwave trough will move over the combined
Panhandles on Saturday, with lee side cyclogenesis expected over far
southeastern Colorado. Model guidance has come into better agreement
of approximate location where the low pressure system will form. Vigorous
moisture return ahead of a sharpening dryline in eastern New Mexico
and a northward moving warm front will help bring high temperatures
in the mid 80s and dew point temperatures in the mid 50s to lower
60s. Though there is some lingering uncertainty on where exactly the
frontal boundary will stall, there is confidence in the development
of instability across the southern and eastern portions of the
combined Panhandles. In the warm sector and ahead of the dryline,
MLCAPE is expected to be around 1500-2500 J/kg with effective bulk
shear around 35-45 kts and increasing shear further south. With
diffluence aloft, and strong isentropic lift across the stalled
boundary, there is favorable dynamics for organized severe
convection. Storms may possibly form in a southwest to northeast
linear mode across the Panhandles, with discrete supercells possible
ahead of this line in the southeastern Texas Panhandle. Large hail
and damaging winds are likely, with a tornado or two possible with
any discrete supercell formation. As the line of storms moves
southeast, a cold pool may develop along and behind these storms
precluding the main threats towards gust fronts and heavy rainfall
late Sunday.

On Monday, the upper low will slowly progress towards Arizona and
continue to place our region under southwesterly flow aloft. Another
negatively shortwave trough will move across the combined Panhandles,
with a dryline sharpening up along the central portions of the
region. Instability will potentially be more favorable for the
eastern half of the area, but will need to see how worked over the
area is from Sunday`s activity before knowing how widespread severe
weather could be in our region. At present, have forecasted high
temperatures in the mid 80s with dew points in the mid-40s to the
west and the mid 60s to the east.

Tuesday through Thursday will remain active, as the upper low progged
to be over Arizona will open up into the longwave pattern as an upper
low moves southeast into Wyoming on Tuesday. Longwave trough will
progress east on Wednesday and Thursday with another leeside
cyclogenesis possible on Wednesday. Thunderstorms will be possible
on each day across the region, though it is too early to determine
whether severe weather is possible. Highs during the extended period
will be mid 70s to mid 80s, which is near to slightly below normal
for this time of year.

Bieda

Aviation...Previous Discussion...18Z TAFs...Cold air aloft associated
with closed low passing just north of forecast area may assist in
production of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Greatest
potential for convection will be across northern areas...where some
wrap-around low-level moisture is expected, and where sharply curved
flow will produce enhanced vorticity. Otherwise, vfr conditions
expected to prevail for this forecast.

Cockrell

Hydrology...A strong moisture return expected Sunday, along with a
potentially stationary boundary across the southwestern to
northeastern combined Panhandles, will bring the possibility for
heavy rain across the area. Organized thunderstorms, potentially
linear along a stalled frontal boundary, is forecasted with discrete
supercells possible in the southeastern portions of the area.
Precipitable water values is forecasted to be between 1.20-1.40
inches, which is in the 99th percentile for our region this time of
year. The potential for slow moving southeasterly propagation of
a line of thunderstorms will place the combined Panhandles under a
threat of localized flooding or flash flooding. Instances of creek
and river flooding, especially over the southeastern Texas Panhandle,
is possible due to previous rainfall. The flood threat will remain
through early next week as thunderstorms are possible through early
next week as active weather continues.

Bieda

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KAMA 272318 AAA
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
618 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.Aviation...
Gusty winds should continue for another couple of hours at GUY and
DHT, winds at AMA should remain at or below 10 knots through this
forecast. A TSRA may affect DHT early in this forecast...so have
inserted a tempo group for this possibility. Skies should remain VFR
for all sites through this forecast. North and northwest winds will
flip around to the south by early afternoon on Saturday, but speeds
should remain around 10 knots or less.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /Issued 317 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

Short Term...Tonight...Shortwave trof moving rapidly through base
of mid- level trof will generate light precipitation in the very near
term, primarily along post-frontal convergence zone currently running
from near Beaver to Borger to Amarillo. However, expect that
shortwave trof`s influence will depart before 6 PM, with chances for
measurable precipitation remaining miniscule. Expect clouds to
decrease overnight with overnight low temperatures mainly in the 45
to 55 degree range.

Cockrell

Long Term...Saturday through Thursday night...A shortwave ridge will
rapidly pass over the combined Panhandles on Saturday ahead of an
incoming shortwave trough Saturday afternoon. Weak isentropic lift in
association with passing shortwave & vorticity maximum will present
a slight chance of thunderstorms moving east across the Oklahoma and
far northern Texas Panhandles. Instability with convection will be
limited, as MLCAPE is forecasted to be around 300-500 J/kg, but a
significant inverted-V signature suggests that there is potential for
gusty winds with any shower or thunderstorm activity. This shortwave
should clear the area by Saturday night ending chances of convection
during the evening hours.

For Sunday, a complicated weather patterns is expected to develop
over the combined Panhandles. This section of the discussion will
focus on the severe weather potential, with an adjoining hydrology
section provided below. An slow moving upper level low over southern
California will bring southwesterly flow into the region. A
negatively tilted shortwave trough will move over the combined
Panhandles on Saturday, with lee side cyclogenesis expected over far
southeastern Colorado. Model guidance has come into better agreement
of approximate location where the low pressure system will form. Vigorous
moisture return ahead of a sharpening dryline in eastern New Mexico
and a northward moving warm front will help bring high temperatures
in the mid 80s and dew point temperatures in the mid 50s to lower
60s. Though there is some lingering uncertainty on where exactly the
frontal boundary will stall, there is confidence in the development
of instability across the southern and eastern portions of the
combined Panhandles. In the warm sector and ahead of the dryline,
MLCAPE is expected to be around 1500-2500 J/kg with effective bulk
shear around 35-45 kts and increasing shear further south. With
diffluence aloft, and strong isentropic lift across the stalled
boundary, there is favorable dynamics for organized severe
convection. Storms may possibly form in a southwest to northeast
linear mode across the Panhandles, with discrete supercells possible
ahead of this line in the southeastern Texas Panhandle. Large hail
and damaging winds are likely, with a tornado or two possible with
any discrete supercell formation. As the line of storms moves
southeast, a cold pool may develop along and behind these storms
precluding the main threats towards gust fronts and heavy rainfall
late Sunday.

On Monday, the upper low will slowly progress towards Arizona and
continue to place our region under southwesterly flow aloft. Another
negatively shortwave trough will move across the combined Panhandles,
with a dryline sharpening up along the central portions of the
region. Instability will potentially be more favorable for the
eastern half of the area, but will need to see how worked over the
area is from Sunday`s activity before knowing how widespread severe
weather could be in our region. At present, have forecasted high
temperatures in the mid 80s with dew points in the mid-40s to the
west and the mid 60s to the east.

Tuesday through Thursday will remain active, as the upper low progged
to be over Arizona will open up into the longwave pattern as an upper
low moves southeast into Wyoming on Tuesday. Longwave trough will
progress east on Wednesday and Thursday with another leeside
cyclogenesis possible on Wednesday. Thunderstorms will be possible
on each day across the region, though it is too early to determine
whether severe weather is possible. Highs during the extended period
will be mid 70s to mid 80s, which is near to slightly below normal
for this time of year.

Bieda

Aviation...Previous Discussion...18Z TAFs...Cold air aloft associated
with closed low passing just north of forecast area may assist in
production of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Greatest
potential for convection will be across northern areas...where some
wrap-around low-level moisture is expected, and where sharply curved
flow will produce enhanced vorticity. Otherwise, vfr conditions
expected to prevail for this forecast.

Cockrell

Hydrology...A strong moisture return expected Sunday, along with a
potentially stationary boundary across the southwestern to
northeastern combined Panhandles, will bring the possibility for
heavy rain across the area. Organized thunderstorms, potentially
linear along a stalled frontal boundary, is forecasted with discrete
supercells possible in the southeastern portions of the area.
Precipitable water values is forecasted to be between 1.20-1.40
inches, which is in the 99th percentile for our region this time of
year. The potential for slow moving southeasterly propagation of
a line of thunderstorms will place the combined Panhandles under a
threat of localized flooding or flash flooding. Instances of creek
and river flooding, especially over the southeastern Texas Panhandle,
is possible due to previous rainfall. The flood threat will remain
through early next week as thunderstorms are possible through early
next week as active weather continues.

Bieda

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/1





000
FXUS64 KAMA 271720
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1220 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.Aviation...
Cold air aloft associated with closed low passing just north of
forecast area may assist in production of showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon.  Greatest potential for convection will be across
northern areas...where some wrap-around low-level moisture is
expected, and where sharply curved flow will produce enhanced
vorticity.  Otherwise, vfr conditions expected to prevail for this
forecast.

Cockrell

&&

.Prev Discussion... /Issued 633 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

Aviation...
12Z TAFs...VFR conditions will continue this period. Winds will
generally favor a west to northwest direction, and start gusting near
20 to 28kts this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are possible
across the OK Panhandle and into the northern TX Panhandle this
afternoon into this evening. Winds will taper off and remain mostly
out of the northwest through Saturday morning.

Elsenheimer

Prev Discussion... /Issued 338 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

Discussion...
An upper low will pass by to our north today. Heating beneath cooling
mid levels should yield sufficient instability for some convection by
afternoon. Weak instability should limit severe potential but deep
dry subcloud layer may develop since post frontal moisture is modest
at best. Strong wind gusts could accompany showers and thunderstorms.

Southern stream jet will remain active into early next week and by
Sunday a slow moving and fairly weak upper low will approach. This
will force southeasterly flow and rapid return of moisture to the
Panhandles. Weak forcing in a moist unstable environment should
result in convection by afternoon. Deep layer shear will be weak
initially but may strengthen as low level southeasterly winds
increase late. Aloft winds are fairly light so storm
organization/persistence may be difficult to achieve. Models suggest
cold pool driven complex may form later in the day and continue into
the evening possibly leading to heavy rainfall amounts and potential
flooding.

Weak synoptic flow will continue into early week with a tendency
for gradual mid-level height falls through the period. Eventually the
western trough will pass forcing a cold front through by Wednesday and
bringing drier and slightly cooler weather for the latter half of
the week. Low precipitation probabilities were retained for Thursday
because ECMWF is slower to move the trough east. Also, seasonal
uptick in mountain convection to our west and northwesterly flow
in the wake of this trough may cause convection to enter the far
western portion of our area late in the week and possibly the
weekend.

BRB

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

3/98





000
FXUS64 KAMA 271133
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
633 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.Aviation...
12Z TAFs...VFR conditions will continue this period. Winds will
generally favor a west to northwest direction, and start gusting near
20 to 28kts this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are possible
across the OK Panhandle and into the northern TX Panhandle this
afternoon into this evening. Winds will taper off and remain mostly
out of the northwest through Saturday morning.

Elsenheimer

&&

.Prev Discussion... /Issued 338 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

Discussion...
An upper low will pass by to our north today. Heating beneath cooling
mid levels should yield sufficient instability for some convection by
afternoon. Weak instability should limit severe potential but deep
dry subcloud layer may develop since post frontal moisture is modest
at best. Strong wind gusts could accompany showers and thunderstorms.

Southern stream jet will remain active into early next week and by
Sunday a slow moving and fairly weak upper low will approach. This
will force southeasterly flow and rapid return of moisture to the
Panhandles. Weak forcing in a moist unstable environment should
result in convection by afternoon. Deep layer shear will be weak
initially but may strengthen as low level southeasterly winds
increase late. Aloft winds are fairly light so storm
organization/persistence may be difficult to achieve. Models suggest
cold pool driven complex may form later in the day and continue into
the evening possibly leading to heavy rainfall amounts and potential
flooding.

Weak synoptic flow will continue into early week with a tendency
for gradual mid-level height falls through the period. Eventually the
western trough will pass forcing a cold front through by Wednesday and
bringing drier and slightly cooler weather for the latter half of
the week. Low precipitation probabilities were retained for Thursday
because ECMWF is slower to move the trough east. Also, seasonal
uptick in mountain convection to our west and northwesterly flow
in the wake of this trough may cause convection to enter the far
western portion of our area late in the week and possibly the
weekend.

BRB

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

18/17





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