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000
FXUS64 KAMA 021040 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
540 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.AVIATION...
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS AROUND 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND BY SUNSET THEY SHOULD BE BELOW 10
KNOTS. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT GUY THIS MORNING ALONG
WITH A SHOT OF LIGHT RAIN. OTHERWISE...THE TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THROUGH THIS FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY

THE ONLY ADJUSTMENT OF SIGNIFICANCE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO COOL
TEMPS A BIT FOR TONIGHT, TOMORROW, AND TOMORROW NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL GIVE US A BREEZY AND BRISK DAY
TODAY AND ANOTHER COOL DAY IS ON TAP TOMORROW. MADE SOME TWEAKS BUT
HAVE GENERALLY RETAINED LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP FOR THIS MORNING
THROUGH ABOUT NOON TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT ANY AMOUNTS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT.

THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FIRST FRONT AND A REINFORCING FRONT TONIGHT
WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WE`VE FELT RECENTLY...ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.  HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWNWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL
TRENDS AND STRONG CAA. THE TREND MAY NEED TO BE CONTINUED ON
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS AS THE MET IS ADVERTISING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPR
30S BY SAT MORNING FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THINK FROST WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES ON FRI NIGHT.

A WARMING TREND UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL
BEGIN SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH SPECTACULAR EARLY
FALL WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL TREND FROM THE 70S ON SATURDAY
TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE 80S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/09







000
FXUS64 KAMA 021040 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
540 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.AVIATION...
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS AROUND 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND BY SUNSET THEY SHOULD BE BELOW 10
KNOTS. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT GUY THIS MORNING ALONG
WITH A SHOT OF LIGHT RAIN. OTHERWISE...THE TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THROUGH THIS FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY

THE ONLY ADJUSTMENT OF SIGNIFICANCE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO COOL
TEMPS A BIT FOR TONIGHT, TOMORROW, AND TOMORROW NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL GIVE US A BREEZY AND BRISK DAY
TODAY AND ANOTHER COOL DAY IS ON TAP TOMORROW. MADE SOME TWEAKS BUT
HAVE GENERALLY RETAINED LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP FOR THIS MORNING
THROUGH ABOUT NOON TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT ANY AMOUNTS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT.

THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FIRST FRONT AND A REINFORCING FRONT TONIGHT
WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WE`VE FELT RECENTLY...ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.  HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWNWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL
TRENDS AND STRONG CAA. THE TREND MAY NEED TO BE CONTINUED ON
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS AS THE MET IS ADVERTISING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPR
30S BY SAT MORNING FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THINK FROST WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES ON FRI NIGHT.

A WARMING TREND UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL
BEGIN SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH SPECTACULAR EARLY
FALL WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL TREND FROM THE 70S ON SATURDAY
TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE 80S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/09






000
FXUS64 KAMA 020827
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
327 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY

THE ONLY ADJUSTMENT OF SIGNIFICANCE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO COOL
TEMPS A BIT FOR TONIGHT, TOMORROW, AND TOMORROW NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL GIVE US A BREEZY AND BRISK DAY
TODAY AND ANOTHER COOL DAY IS ON TAP TOMORROW. MADE SOME TWEAKS BUT
HAVE GENERALLY RETAINED LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP FOR THIS MORNING
THROUGH ABOUT NOON TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT ANY AMOUNTS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT.

THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FIRST FRONT AND A REINFORCING FRONT TONIGHT
WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WE`VE FELT RECENTLY...ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.  HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWNWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL
TRENDS AND STRONG CAA. THE TREND MAY NEED TO BE CONTINUED ON
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS AS THE MET IS ADVERTISING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPR
30S BY SAT MORNING FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THINK FROST WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES ON FRI NIGHT.

A WARMING TREND UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL
BEGIN SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH SPECTACULAR EARLY
FALL WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL TREND FROM THE 70S ON SATURDAY
TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE 80S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SIMPSON
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                70  44  65  42  77 /  10   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  71  46  67  40  78 /  20   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              67  41  63  40  75 /  10   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  71  45  67  44  78 /  20   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              71  42  67  41  78 /  10   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  71  42  66  40  77 /  10   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               73  48  69  45  79 /  10   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 68  40  64  38  76 /  10   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  71  43  66  41  77 /  20   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                70  42  65  40  76 /  10   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                71  42  67  40  78 /  20   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   70  44  65  44  78 /  10   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                73  46  69  43  80 /  10   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              75  48  72  46  80 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/09






000
FXUS64 KAMA 020827
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
327 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY

THE ONLY ADJUSTMENT OF SIGNIFICANCE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO COOL
TEMPS A BIT FOR TONIGHT, TOMORROW, AND TOMORROW NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL GIVE US A BREEZY AND BRISK DAY
TODAY AND ANOTHER COOL DAY IS ON TAP TOMORROW. MADE SOME TWEAKS BUT
HAVE GENERALLY RETAINED LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP FOR THIS MORNING
THROUGH ABOUT NOON TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT ANY AMOUNTS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT.

THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FIRST FRONT AND A REINFORCING FRONT TONIGHT
WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WE`VE FELT RECENTLY...ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.  HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWNWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL
TRENDS AND STRONG CAA. THE TREND MAY NEED TO BE CONTINUED ON
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS AS THE MET IS ADVERTISING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPR
30S BY SAT MORNING FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THINK FROST WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES ON FRI NIGHT.

A WARMING TREND UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL
BEGIN SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH SPECTACULAR EARLY
FALL WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL TREND FROM THE 70S ON SATURDAY
TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE 80S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SIMPSON
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                70  44  65  42  77 /  10   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  71  46  67  40  78 /  20   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              67  41  63  40  75 /  10   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  71  45  67  44  78 /  20   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              71  42  67  41  78 /  10   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  71  42  66  40  77 /  10   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               73  48  69  45  79 /  10   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 68  40  64  38  76 /  10   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  71  43  66  41  77 /  20   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                70  42  65  40  76 /  10   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                71  42  67  40  78 /  20   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   70  44  65  44  78 /  10   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                73  46  69  43  80 /  10   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              75  48  72  46  80 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/09







000
FXUS64 KAMA 020543 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1243 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS AVIATION AFD. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS KGUY AND KDHT DURG THE 06Z TO 07Z TIME
PERIOD...AND THEN KAMA DURING THE 09Z TO 10Z TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY FOR SEVERAL HOURS...
THEN DIMINISH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IT STILL APPEARS THAT MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINAL SITES...AND HAVE OMITTED
THIS ELEMENT FROM THIS FCST CYCLE.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...MAIN WEATHER ELEMENT WILL BE PASSAGE OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE FCST AREA. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT
TO MOVE THRU KGUY AND KDHT AROUND 06Z TO 07Z...AND THEN KAMA AROUND
09Z TO 10Z THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL RAMP UP BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY
FOR SEVERAL HOURS...THEN DIMINISH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT ALL
SITES. IT APPEARS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT
STORM SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINAL SITES...SO
DID NOT INCLUDE IT FOR THIS FCST CYCLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS THIS EVENING.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  LOW
THUNDERSTORM POPS HAVE BEEN RETAINED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING AS SHARP MID-LEVEL TROF TRAVERSES THE AREA.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER NORTHWEST PART OF FORECAST
AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND TO QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES BY SUNRISE.  WINDS WILL INCREASE NOTABLY WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT DO NOT EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS TO BE ABOVE 35
MPH.  NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY...GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

ONSET OF DRY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW LEAD US TO EXPECT NO
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  REINFORCING COLD
FRONT EARLY FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO A SECOND DAY OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

MILD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...WITH WARMER CONDTIONS BEGINNING
TUESDAY AS FLOW TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL AND THEN SOUTHWEST.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY DUE TO EITHER 20-FOOT WINDS REMAINING BELOW 15 MPH AND/OR
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 20 PERCENT.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 020543 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1243 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS AVIATION AFD. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS KGUY AND KDHT DURG THE 06Z TO 07Z TIME
PERIOD...AND THEN KAMA DURING THE 09Z TO 10Z TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY FOR SEVERAL HOURS...
THEN DIMINISH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IT STILL APPEARS THAT MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINAL SITES...AND HAVE OMITTED
THIS ELEMENT FROM THIS FCST CYCLE.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...MAIN WEATHER ELEMENT WILL BE PASSAGE OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE FCST AREA. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT
TO MOVE THRU KGUY AND KDHT AROUND 06Z TO 07Z...AND THEN KAMA AROUND
09Z TO 10Z THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL RAMP UP BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY
FOR SEVERAL HOURS...THEN DIMINISH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT ALL
SITES. IT APPEARS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT
STORM SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINAL SITES...SO
DID NOT INCLUDE IT FOR THIS FCST CYCLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS THIS EVENING.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  LOW
THUNDERSTORM POPS HAVE BEEN RETAINED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING AS SHARP MID-LEVEL TROF TRAVERSES THE AREA.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER NORTHWEST PART OF FORECAST
AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND TO QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES BY SUNRISE.  WINDS WILL INCREASE NOTABLY WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT DO NOT EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS TO BE ABOVE 35
MPH.  NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY...GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

ONSET OF DRY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW LEAD US TO EXPECT NO
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  REINFORCING COLD
FRONT EARLY FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO A SECOND DAY OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

MILD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...WITH WARMER CONDTIONS BEGINNING
TUESDAY AS FLOW TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL AND THEN SOUTHWEST.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY DUE TO EITHER 20-FOOT WINDS REMAINING BELOW 15 MPH AND/OR
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 20 PERCENT.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KAMA 012342 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
642 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...MAIN WEATHER ELEMENT WILL BE PASSAGE OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE FCST AREA. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT
TO MOVE THRU KGUY AND KDHT AROUND 06Z TO 07Z...AND THEN KAMA AROUND
09Z TO 10Z THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL RAMP UP BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY
FOR SEVERAL HOURS...THEN DIMINISH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT ALL
SITES. IT APPEARS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT
STORM SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINAL SITES...SO
DID NOT INCLUDE IT FOR THIS FCST CYCLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS THIS EVENING.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  LOW
THUNDERSTORM POPS HAVE BEEN RETAINED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING AS SHARP MID-LEVEL TROF TRAVERSES THE AREA.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER NORTHWEST PART OF FORECAST
AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND TO QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES BY SUNRISE.  WINDS WILL INCREASE NOTABLY WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT DO NOT EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS TO BE ABOVE 35
MPH.  NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY...GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

ONSET OF DRY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW LEAD US TO EXPECT NO
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  REINFORCING COLD
FRONT EARLY FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO A SECOND DAY OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

MILD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...WITH WARMER CONDTIONS BEGINNING
TUESDAY AS FLOW TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL AND THEN SOUTHWEST.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY DUE TO EITHER 20-FOOT WINDS REMAINING BELOW 15 MPH AND/OR
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 20 PERCENT.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 012342 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
642 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...MAIN WEATHER ELEMENT WILL BE PASSAGE OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE FCST AREA. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT
TO MOVE THRU KGUY AND KDHT AROUND 06Z TO 07Z...AND THEN KAMA AROUND
09Z TO 10Z THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL RAMP UP BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY
FOR SEVERAL HOURS...THEN DIMINISH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT ALL
SITES. IT APPEARS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT
STORM SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINAL SITES...SO
DID NOT INCLUDE IT FOR THIS FCST CYCLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS THIS EVENING.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  LOW
THUNDERSTORM POPS HAVE BEEN RETAINED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING AS SHARP MID-LEVEL TROF TRAVERSES THE AREA.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER NORTHWEST PART OF FORECAST
AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND TO QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES BY SUNRISE.  WINDS WILL INCREASE NOTABLY WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT DO NOT EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS TO BE ABOVE 35
MPH.  NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY...GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

ONSET OF DRY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW LEAD US TO EXPECT NO
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  REINFORCING COLD
FRONT EARLY FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO A SECOND DAY OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

MILD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...WITH WARMER CONDTIONS BEGINNING
TUESDAY AS FLOW TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL AND THEN SOUTHWEST.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY DUE TO EITHER 20-FOOT WINDS REMAINING BELOW 15 MPH AND/OR
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 20 PERCENT.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 011920
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
220 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  LOW
THUNDERSTORM POPS HAVE BEEN RETAINED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING AS SHARP MID-LEVEL TROF TRAVERSES THE AREA.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER NORTHWEST PART OF FORECAST
AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND TO QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES BY SUNRISE.  WINDS WILL INCREASE NOTABLY WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT DO NOT EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS TO BE ABOVE 35
MPH.  NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY...GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

ONSET OF DRY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW LEAD US TO EXPECT NO
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  REINFORCING COLD
FRONT EARLY FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO A SECOND DAY OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

MILD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...WITH WARMER CONDTIONS BEGINNING
TUESDAY AS FLOW TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL AND THEN SOUTHWEST.  03

COCKRELL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY DUE TO EITHER 20-FOOT WINDS REMAINING BELOW 15 MPH AND/OR
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 20 PERCENT.  03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                51  70  44  68  43 /  10  20   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  55  70  45  67  43 /  20  20   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              46  67  41  64  40 /  20  10   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  56  70  46  68  47 /  20  20   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              51  70  43  68  44 /  20  20   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  51  70  42  69  42 /  10  20   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               57  74  48  72  46 /   5  20   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 46  68  40  66  39 /  20  10   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  50  70  45  66  42 /  20  20   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                49  69  41  69  41 /  10  20   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                55  71  42  68  42 /  20  20   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   54  70  44  68  45 /  10  20   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                57  74  45  71  44 /   5  20   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              58  77  48  73  46 /  10  20   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

19/03






000
FXUS64 KAMA 011920
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
220 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  LOW
THUNDERSTORM POPS HAVE BEEN RETAINED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING AS SHARP MID-LEVEL TROF TRAVERSES THE AREA.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER NORTHWEST PART OF FORECAST
AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND TO QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES BY SUNRISE.  WINDS WILL INCREASE NOTABLY WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT DO NOT EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS TO BE ABOVE 35
MPH.  NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY...GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

ONSET OF DRY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW LEAD US TO EXPECT NO
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  REINFORCING COLD
FRONT EARLY FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO A SECOND DAY OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

MILD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...WITH WARMER CONDTIONS BEGINNING
TUESDAY AS FLOW TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL AND THEN SOUTHWEST.  03

COCKRELL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY DUE TO EITHER 20-FOOT WINDS REMAINING BELOW 15 MPH AND/OR
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 20 PERCENT.  03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                51  70  44  68  43 /  10  20   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  55  70  45  67  43 /  20  20   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              46  67  41  64  40 /  20  10   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  56  70  46  68  47 /  20  20   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              51  70  43  68  44 /  20  20   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  51  70  42  69  42 /  10  20   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               57  74  48  72  46 /   5  20   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 46  68  40  66  39 /  20  10   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  50  70  45  66  42 /  20  20   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                49  69  41  69  41 /  10  20   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                55  71  42  68  42 /  20  20   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   54  70  44  68  45 /  10  20   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                57  74  45  71  44 /   5  20   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              58  77  48  73  46 /  10  20   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

19/03





000
FXUS64 KAMA 011704 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1204 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...MAIN FEATURE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE A COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES AND IMPACT THE TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT, SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE, WINDS WILL PICK
UP AT ALL SITES WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KNOTS. VERY SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS IMPACTING KGUY/KDHT BEHIND THE FRONT BUT HAVE LEFT MENTION
OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MOULTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

AVIATION...00Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL TURN WINDS TO THE NNW VERY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP RIGHT AT THE TAIL END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND GET
MUCH STRONGER JUST PAST THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SIMPSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT: NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. DESPITE WEAKER SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW
THAN YESTERDAY, 850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 1 C WARMER THIS
AFTERNOON SO PERSISTENCE SEEMS TO BE THE WAY TO GO. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S (NW) TO LOWER 90S (SE).
THE REAL ACTION BEGINS LATE TONIGHT AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IN RESPONSE TO THIS, A SEASONABLY STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BY MIDNIGHT AND SHOULD
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, BREEZY NORTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH 3-HR PRESSURE
RISES UP TO 6 MB POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY, A CORE OF 35-40 KT WINDS
WILL DEVELOP AT 850 MB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOCATIONS ON THE
CAPROCK WILL LIKELY ONLY TAP INTO THESE STRONGER WINDS OVERNIGHT, AND
THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES. NOT
EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD WIND ADVISORY, BUT A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS
COULD FLIRT WITH IT.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES, STRONG ASCENT WILL COMBINE WITH THE
MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
AFTER 10 PM ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. CHANCES FOR
RAIN/STORMS WILL SPREAD SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE`VE PULLED POPS
FARTHER AS THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY/UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
POSITIONED FARTHER SOUTH. THE HIGHEST CHANCES SHOULD BE NORTH OF A
VEGA TO CANADIAN LINE. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED, BUT SOME OF THE
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IF THEY CAN MIX DOWN THE
STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WINDS AROUND 850 MB. DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT, LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT: WE`VE ALSO ADDED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A STORM OR TWO EAST OF A LIBERAL TO HEREFORD LINE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, BUT COVERAGE SHOULDN`T BE WIDESPREAD. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT THERE`S A
POSSIBILITY A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST. LOW CLOUDS MAY BE STUBBORN TO BREAK UP
UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, SO HIGHS SHOULD ONLY TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WILL
REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH VERY IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH, THE STRONGEST LOW-/MID-LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ACROSS KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA.
HOWEVER, THIS TROUGH WILL SEND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL COULD INCREASE INTO
THE 20-25 MPH RANGE BEHIND IT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT: THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE
PANHANDLES BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH, SO WINDS SHOULDN`T BE TOO
STRONG IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. A LINGERING CORE OF STRONGER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW FROM
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE FAR NORTHEAST PANHANDLES,
WHICH IS WHERE THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST THROUGH THE DAY.
NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY, BUT 850 MB TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO BE 2-3 C COLDER THAN ON THURSDAY. GIVEN THIS, WE`VE
LOWERED HIGHS INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
THIS HIGH WILL MOVE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING BACK TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. ADMITTEDLY, WE MAY NOT BE COOL
ENOUGH FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT WE THINK THE LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN MOST LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: A DRY UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
WILL PERSIST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE BECOMING MORE
ZONAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTAL INTRUSIONS
MAY OCCUR WITHIN THIS PATTERN, MOST LIKELY OCCURRING SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY MONDAY. HOWEVER, WITH LITTLE TO NO COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
EACH FRONT, HIGHS SHOULDN`T BE IMPACTED MUCH AT ALL. OVERALL,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH RAIN CHANCES
APPEARING TO BE SLIM TO NONE.

JACKSON

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS DUE TO EITHER 20-FOOT WINDS REMAINING BELOW 15 MPH
AND/OR RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

99/99







000
FXUS64 KAMA 011704 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1204 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...MAIN FEATURE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE A COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES AND IMPACT THE TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT, SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE, WINDS WILL PICK
UP AT ALL SITES WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KNOTS. VERY SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS IMPACTING KGUY/KDHT BEHIND THE FRONT BUT HAVE LEFT MENTION
OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MOULTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

AVIATION...00Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL TURN WINDS TO THE NNW VERY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP RIGHT AT THE TAIL END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND GET
MUCH STRONGER JUST PAST THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SIMPSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT: NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. DESPITE WEAKER SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW
THAN YESTERDAY, 850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 1 C WARMER THIS
AFTERNOON SO PERSISTENCE SEEMS TO BE THE WAY TO GO. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S (NW) TO LOWER 90S (SE).
THE REAL ACTION BEGINS LATE TONIGHT AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IN RESPONSE TO THIS, A SEASONABLY STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BY MIDNIGHT AND SHOULD
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, BREEZY NORTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH 3-HR PRESSURE
RISES UP TO 6 MB POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY, A CORE OF 35-40 KT WINDS
WILL DEVELOP AT 850 MB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOCATIONS ON THE
CAPROCK WILL LIKELY ONLY TAP INTO THESE STRONGER WINDS OVERNIGHT, AND
THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES. NOT
EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD WIND ADVISORY, BUT A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS
COULD FLIRT WITH IT.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES, STRONG ASCENT WILL COMBINE WITH THE
MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
AFTER 10 PM ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. CHANCES FOR
RAIN/STORMS WILL SPREAD SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE`VE PULLED POPS
FARTHER AS THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY/UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
POSITIONED FARTHER SOUTH. THE HIGHEST CHANCES SHOULD BE NORTH OF A
VEGA TO CANADIAN LINE. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED, BUT SOME OF THE
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IF THEY CAN MIX DOWN THE
STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WINDS AROUND 850 MB. DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT, LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT: WE`VE ALSO ADDED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A STORM OR TWO EAST OF A LIBERAL TO HEREFORD LINE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, BUT COVERAGE SHOULDN`T BE WIDESPREAD. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT THERE`S A
POSSIBILITY A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST. LOW CLOUDS MAY BE STUBBORN TO BREAK UP
UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, SO HIGHS SHOULD ONLY TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WILL
REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH VERY IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH, THE STRONGEST LOW-/MID-LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ACROSS KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA.
HOWEVER, THIS TROUGH WILL SEND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL COULD INCREASE INTO
THE 20-25 MPH RANGE BEHIND IT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT: THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE
PANHANDLES BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH, SO WINDS SHOULDN`T BE TOO
STRONG IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. A LINGERING CORE OF STRONGER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW FROM
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE FAR NORTHEAST PANHANDLES,
WHICH IS WHERE THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST THROUGH THE DAY.
NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY, BUT 850 MB TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO BE 2-3 C COLDER THAN ON THURSDAY. GIVEN THIS, WE`VE
LOWERED HIGHS INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
THIS HIGH WILL MOVE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING BACK TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. ADMITTEDLY, WE MAY NOT BE COOL
ENOUGH FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT WE THINK THE LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN MOST LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: A DRY UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
WILL PERSIST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE BECOMING MORE
ZONAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTAL INTRUSIONS
MAY OCCUR WITHIN THIS PATTERN, MOST LIKELY OCCURRING SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY MONDAY. HOWEVER, WITH LITTLE TO NO COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
EACH FRONT, HIGHS SHOULDN`T BE IMPACTED MUCH AT ALL. OVERALL,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH RAIN CHANCES
APPEARING TO BE SLIM TO NONE.

JACKSON

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS DUE TO EITHER 20-FOOT WINDS REMAINING BELOW 15 MPH
AND/OR RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

99/99






000
FXUS64 KAMA 011139
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
639 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL TURN WINDS TO THE NNW VERY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP RIGHT AT THE TAIL END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND GET
MUCH STRONGER JUST PAST THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SIMPSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT: NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. DESPITE WEAKER SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW
THAN YESTERDAY, 850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 1 C WARMER THIS
AFTERNOON SO PERSISTENCE SEEMS TO BE THE WAY TO GO. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S (NW) TO LOWER 90S (SE).
THE REAL ACTION BEGINS LATE TONIGHT AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IN RESPONSE TO THIS, A SEASONABLY STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BY MIDNIGHT AND SHOULD
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, BREEZY NORTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH 3-HR PRESSURE
RISES UP TO 6 MB POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY, A CORE OF 35-40 KT WINDS
WILL DEVELOP AT 850 MB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOCATIONS ON THE
CAPROCK WILL LIKELY ONLY TAP INTO THESE STRONGER WINDS OVERNIGHT, AND
THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES. NOT
EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD WIND ADVISORY, BUT A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS
COULD FLIRT WITH IT.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES, STRONG ASCENT WILL COMBINE WITH THE
MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
AFTER 10 PM ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. CHANCES FOR
RAIN/STORMS WILL SPREAD SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE`VE PULLED POPS
FARTHER AS THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY/UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
POSITIONED FARTHER SOUTH. THE HIGHEST CHANCES SHOULD BE NORTH OF A
VEGA TO CANADIAN LINE. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED, BUT SOME OF THE
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IF THEY CAN MIX DOWN THE
STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WINDS AROUND 850 MB. DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT, LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT: WE`VE ALSO ADDED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A STORM OR TWO EAST OF A LIBERAL TO HEREFORD LINE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, BUT COVERAGE SHOULDN`T BE WIDESPREAD. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT THERE`S A
POSSIBILITY A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST. LOW CLOUDS MAY BE STUBBORN TO BREAK UP
UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, SO HIGHS SHOULD ONLY TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WILL
REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH VERY IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH, THE STRONGEST LOW-/MID-LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ACROSS KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA.
HOWEVER, THIS TROUGH WILL SEND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL COULD INCREASE INTO
THE 20-25 MPH RANGE BEHIND IT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT: THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE
PANHANDLES BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH, SO WINDS SHOULDN`T BE TOO
STRONG IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. A LINGERING CORE OF STRONGER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW FROM
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE FAR NORTHEAST PANHANDLES,
WHICH IS WHERE THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST THROUGH THE DAY.
NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY, BUT 850 MB TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO BE 2-3 C COLDER THAN ON THURSDAY. GIVEN THIS, WE`VE
LOWERED HIGHS INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
THIS HIGH WILL MOVE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING BACK TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. ADMITTEDLY, WE MAY NOT BE COOL
ENOUGH FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT WE THINK THE LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN MOST LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: A DRY UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
WILL PERSIST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE BECOMING MORE
ZONAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTAL INTRUSIONS
MAY OCCUR WITHIN THIS PATTERN, MOST LIKELY OCCURRING SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY MONDAY. HOWEVER, WITH LITTLE TO NO COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
EACH FRONT, HIGHS SHOULDN`T BE IMPACTED MUCH AT ALL. OVERALL,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH RAIN CHANCES
APPEARING TO BE SLIM TO NONE.

JACKSON

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS DUE TO EITHER 20-FOOT WINDS REMAINING BELOW 15 MPH
AND/OR RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

09/13







000
FXUS64 KAMA 011139
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
639 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL TURN WINDS TO THE NNW VERY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP RIGHT AT THE TAIL END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND GET
MUCH STRONGER JUST PAST THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SIMPSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT: NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. DESPITE WEAKER SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW
THAN YESTERDAY, 850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 1 C WARMER THIS
AFTERNOON SO PERSISTENCE SEEMS TO BE THE WAY TO GO. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S (NW) TO LOWER 90S (SE).
THE REAL ACTION BEGINS LATE TONIGHT AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IN RESPONSE TO THIS, A SEASONABLY STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BY MIDNIGHT AND SHOULD
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, BREEZY NORTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH 3-HR PRESSURE
RISES UP TO 6 MB POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY, A CORE OF 35-40 KT WINDS
WILL DEVELOP AT 850 MB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOCATIONS ON THE
CAPROCK WILL LIKELY ONLY TAP INTO THESE STRONGER WINDS OVERNIGHT, AND
THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES. NOT
EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD WIND ADVISORY, BUT A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS
COULD FLIRT WITH IT.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES, STRONG ASCENT WILL COMBINE WITH THE
MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
AFTER 10 PM ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. CHANCES FOR
RAIN/STORMS WILL SPREAD SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE`VE PULLED POPS
FARTHER AS THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY/UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
POSITIONED FARTHER SOUTH. THE HIGHEST CHANCES SHOULD BE NORTH OF A
VEGA TO CANADIAN LINE. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED, BUT SOME OF THE
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IF THEY CAN MIX DOWN THE
STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WINDS AROUND 850 MB. DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT, LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT: WE`VE ALSO ADDED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A STORM OR TWO EAST OF A LIBERAL TO HEREFORD LINE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, BUT COVERAGE SHOULDN`T BE WIDESPREAD. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT THERE`S A
POSSIBILITY A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST. LOW CLOUDS MAY BE STUBBORN TO BREAK UP
UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, SO HIGHS SHOULD ONLY TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WILL
REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH VERY IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH, THE STRONGEST LOW-/MID-LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ACROSS KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA.
HOWEVER, THIS TROUGH WILL SEND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL COULD INCREASE INTO
THE 20-25 MPH RANGE BEHIND IT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT: THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE
PANHANDLES BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH, SO WINDS SHOULDN`T BE TOO
STRONG IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. A LINGERING CORE OF STRONGER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW FROM
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE FAR NORTHEAST PANHANDLES,
WHICH IS WHERE THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST THROUGH THE DAY.
NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY, BUT 850 MB TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO BE 2-3 C COLDER THAN ON THURSDAY. GIVEN THIS, WE`VE
LOWERED HIGHS INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
THIS HIGH WILL MOVE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING BACK TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. ADMITTEDLY, WE MAY NOT BE COOL
ENOUGH FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT WE THINK THE LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN MOST LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: A DRY UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
WILL PERSIST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE BECOMING MORE
ZONAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTAL INTRUSIONS
MAY OCCUR WITHIN THIS PATTERN, MOST LIKELY OCCURRING SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY MONDAY. HOWEVER, WITH LITTLE TO NO COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
EACH FRONT, HIGHS SHOULDN`T BE IMPACTED MUCH AT ALL. OVERALL,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH RAIN CHANCES
APPEARING TO BE SLIM TO NONE.

JACKSON

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS DUE TO EITHER 20-FOOT WINDS REMAINING BELOW 15 MPH
AND/OR RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

09/13






000
FXUS64 KAMA 010925
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
425 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT: NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. DESPITE WEAKER SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW
THAN YESTERDAY, 850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 1 C WARMER THIS
AFTERNOON SO PERSISTENCE SEEMS TO BE THE WAY TO GO. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S (NW) TO LOWER 90S (SE).
THE REAL ACTION BEGINS LATE TONIGHT AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IN RESPONSE TO THIS, A SEASONABLY STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BY MIDNIGHT AND SHOULD
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, BREEZY NORTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH 3-HR PRESSURE
RISES UP TO 6 MB POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY, A CORE OF 35-40 KT WINDS
WILL DEVELOP AT 850 MB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOCATIONS ON THE
CAPROCK WILL LIKELY ONLY TAP INTO THESE STRONGER WINDS OVERNIGHT, AND
THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES. NOT
EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD WIND ADVISORY, BUT A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS
COULD FLIRT WITH IT.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES, STRONG ASCENT WILL COMBINE WITH THE
MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
AFTER 10 PM ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. CHANCES FOR
RAIN/STORMS WILL SPREAD SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE`VE PULLED POPS
FARTHER AS THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY/UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
POSITIONED FARTHER SOUTH. THE HIGHEST CHANCES SHOULD BE NORTH OF A
VEGA TO CANADIAN LINE. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED, BUT SOME OF THE
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IF THEY CAN MIX DOWN THE
STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WINDS AROUND 850 MB. DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT, LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT: WE`VE ALSO ADDED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A STORM OR TWO EAST OF A LIBERAL TO HEREFORD LINE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, BUT COVERAGE SHOULDN`T BE WIDESPREAD. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT THERE`S A
POSSIBILITY A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST. LOW CLOUDS MAY BE STUBBORN TO BREAK UP
UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, SO HIGHS SHOULD ONLY TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WILL
REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH VERY IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH, THE STRONGEST LOW-/MID-LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ACROSS KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA.
HOWEVER, THIS TROUGH WILL SEND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL COULD INCREASE INTO
THE 20-25 MPH RANGE BEHIND IT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT: THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE
PANHANDLES BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH, SO WINDS SHOULDN`T BE TOO
STRONG IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. A LINGERING CORE OF STRONGER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW FROM
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE FAR NORTHEAST PANHANDLES,
WHICH IS WHERE THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST THROUGH THE DAY.
NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY, BUT 850 MB TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO BE 2-3 C COLDER THAN ON THURSDAY. GIVEN THIS, WE`VE
LOWERED HIGHS INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
THIS HIGH WILL MOVE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING BACK TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. ADMITTEDLY, WE MAY NOT BE COOL
ENOUGH FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT WE THINK THE LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN MOST LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: A DRY UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
WILL PERSIST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE BECOMING MORE
ZONAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTAL INTRUSIONS
MAY OCCUR WITHIN THIS PATTERN, MOST LIKELY OCCURRING SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY MONDAY. HOWEVER, WITH LITTLE TO NO COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
EACH FRONT, HIGHS SHOULDN`T BE IMPACTED MUCH AT ALL. OVERALL,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH RAIN CHANCES
APPEARING TO BE SLIM TO NONE.

JACKSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS DUE TO EITHER 20-FOOT WINDS REMAINING BELOW 15 MPH
AND/OR RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 20 PERCENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                85  53  71  45  67 /   0  10  20   0   0
BEAVER OK                  84  56  70  45  67 /   0  20  20   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              79  50  68  39  64 /   5  20  10   0   0
BORGER TX                  86  56  71  47  68 /   0  20  20   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              83  53  70  42  68 /   0  20  20   0   0
CANYON TX                  85  53  71  42  67 /   0  10  20   0   0
CLARENDON TX               90  56  74  48  70 /   0   5  20   0   0
DALHART TX                 81  51  69  40  65 /   0  20  10   0   0
GUYMON OK                  83  54  69  43  66 /   5  20  20   0   0
HEREFORD TX                84  53  70  40  67 /   0  10  20   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                86  56  72  44  67 /   0  20  20   0   0
PAMPA TX                   86  54  70  44  67 /   0  10  20   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                92  58  76  47  70 /   5  10  20   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              93  59  78  49  73 /   5  10  20   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

BJS/JJ







000
FXUS64 KAMA 010925
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
425 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT: NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. DESPITE WEAKER SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW
THAN YESTERDAY, 850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 1 C WARMER THIS
AFTERNOON SO PERSISTENCE SEEMS TO BE THE WAY TO GO. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S (NW) TO LOWER 90S (SE).
THE REAL ACTION BEGINS LATE TONIGHT AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IN RESPONSE TO THIS, A SEASONABLY STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BY MIDNIGHT AND SHOULD
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, BREEZY NORTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH 3-HR PRESSURE
RISES UP TO 6 MB POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY, A CORE OF 35-40 KT WINDS
WILL DEVELOP AT 850 MB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOCATIONS ON THE
CAPROCK WILL LIKELY ONLY TAP INTO THESE STRONGER WINDS OVERNIGHT, AND
THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES. NOT
EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD WIND ADVISORY, BUT A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS
COULD FLIRT WITH IT.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES, STRONG ASCENT WILL COMBINE WITH THE
MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
AFTER 10 PM ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. CHANCES FOR
RAIN/STORMS WILL SPREAD SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE`VE PULLED POPS
FARTHER AS THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY/UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
POSITIONED FARTHER SOUTH. THE HIGHEST CHANCES SHOULD BE NORTH OF A
VEGA TO CANADIAN LINE. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED, BUT SOME OF THE
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IF THEY CAN MIX DOWN THE
STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WINDS AROUND 850 MB. DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT, LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT: WE`VE ALSO ADDED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A STORM OR TWO EAST OF A LIBERAL TO HEREFORD LINE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, BUT COVERAGE SHOULDN`T BE WIDESPREAD. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT THERE`S A
POSSIBILITY A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST. LOW CLOUDS MAY BE STUBBORN TO BREAK UP
UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, SO HIGHS SHOULD ONLY TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WILL
REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH VERY IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH, THE STRONGEST LOW-/MID-LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ACROSS KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA.
HOWEVER, THIS TROUGH WILL SEND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL COULD INCREASE INTO
THE 20-25 MPH RANGE BEHIND IT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT: THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE
PANHANDLES BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH, SO WINDS SHOULDN`T BE TOO
STRONG IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. A LINGERING CORE OF STRONGER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW FROM
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE FAR NORTHEAST PANHANDLES,
WHICH IS WHERE THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST THROUGH THE DAY.
NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY, BUT 850 MB TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO BE 2-3 C COLDER THAN ON THURSDAY. GIVEN THIS, WE`VE
LOWERED HIGHS INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
THIS HIGH WILL MOVE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING BACK TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. ADMITTEDLY, WE MAY NOT BE COOL
ENOUGH FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT WE THINK THE LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN MOST LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: A DRY UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
WILL PERSIST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE BECOMING MORE
ZONAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTAL INTRUSIONS
MAY OCCUR WITHIN THIS PATTERN, MOST LIKELY OCCURRING SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY MONDAY. HOWEVER, WITH LITTLE TO NO COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
EACH FRONT, HIGHS SHOULDN`T BE IMPACTED MUCH AT ALL. OVERALL,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH RAIN CHANCES
APPEARING TO BE SLIM TO NONE.

JACKSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS DUE TO EITHER 20-FOOT WINDS REMAINING BELOW 15 MPH
AND/OR RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 20 PERCENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                85  53  71  45  67 /   0  10  20   0   0
BEAVER OK                  84  56  70  45  67 /   0  20  20   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              79  50  68  39  64 /   5  20  10   0   0
BORGER TX                  86  56  71  47  68 /   0  20  20   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              83  53  70  42  68 /   0  20  20   0   0
CANYON TX                  85  53  71  42  67 /   0  10  20   0   0
CLARENDON TX               90  56  74  48  70 /   0   5  20   0   0
DALHART TX                 81  51  69  40  65 /   0  20  10   0   0
GUYMON OK                  83  54  69  43  66 /   5  20  20   0   0
HEREFORD TX                84  53  70  40  67 /   0  10  20   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                86  56  72  44  67 /   0  20  20   0   0
PAMPA TX                   86  54  70  44  67 /   0  10  20   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                92  58  76  47  70 /   5  10  20   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              93  59  78  49  73 /   5  10  20   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

BJS/JJ






000
FXUS64 KAMA 010331
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1031 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH
06Z THURSDAY. LIGHT SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS
WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND NORTH 5 TO 15 KNOTS AROUND 10Z TO 12Z
WEDNESDAY AT THE GUYMON AND DALHART TAF SITES AFTER A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...AND NORTHWEST TO NORTH 5 TO 15 KNOTS AT THE AMARILLO
TAF SITE AROUND 12Z TO 14Z WEDNESDAY AFTER THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WINDS WILL VEER BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST 5
TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 19Z TO 21Z WEDNESDAY AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. A MUCH
STRONGER COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE DALHART AND
POSSIBLY THE GUYMON TAF SITES BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z THURSDAY SHIFTING
THE WINDS BECK TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING TO AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 KNOTS. THE STRONGER COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AMARILLO TAF SITE SHORTLY AFTER THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD ENDS AT 06Z THURSDAY...OR LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DALHART AND GUYMON
TAF SITES AROUND 10Z TO 12Z WEDNESDAY SHIFTING THE SOUTHWEST WINDS 5
TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT
THE AMARILLO TAF SITE 5 TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH AROUND 13Z TO 15Z WEDNESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHICH PASSED BY YESTERDAY IS NOW LIFTING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST...WITH A FEW WEAKER DISTURBANCES RIDING AROUND THE
EDGES OF A WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS STRETCHED NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLES...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 30S WEST OF IT AND IN THE
LOW 60S TO THE EAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR EXPECTED AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG...WITH SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

ANY STORMY WEATHER SHOULD BE EAST OF THE PANHANDLES BY LATE
TONIGHT...AND FOCUS THEN TURNS TOWARD A STRONG COLD FRONT NEARING THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE
USHERED IN BY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PLAINS. IT
LOOKS TO BE ON A SPEEDY PACE WHEN IT ARRIVES IN THE PANHANDLES...WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE LIKELY THROUGH AMARILLO BY 12Z THURSDAY. AS WITH MANY
OF THESE COLD FRONTS...MOS GUIDANCE APPEARS TO UNDER-FORECAST WIND
SPEEDS. THEREFORE THIS FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE RAW MODEL WINDS
NEAR 20-25 KTS WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
GUSTS COULD NEAR 30-35 KTS THURSDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD BE GOOD TO
KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN ABOUT 15 DEGREES FROM RECENT DAYS...BUT WILL
CARRY VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. IN THE OK PANHANDLE AND
FAR NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE...COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER FORCING.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY...MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT SHOULD BE A PLEASANT AUTUMNAL WEEKEND...WITH
HIGHS WARMING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND MIN TEMPS MOSTLY IN
THE 50S. A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD EDGE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...MINUS
THE STRONG WINDS THIS TIME. A PATTERN CHANGE FROM NORTHWEST FLOW TO
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT MAY BE AHEAD FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SO STAY
TUNED FOR WHAT THAT MAY BRING IN THE DAYS AHEAD.

NF

FIRE WEATHER...
A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES COULD SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DIP BELOW 20 PERCENT TODAY AND TOMORROW...BUT FOLLOWING RECENT
RAINFALL NO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

NF

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/08






000
FXUS64 KAMA 010331
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1031 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH
06Z THURSDAY. LIGHT SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS
WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND NORTH 5 TO 15 KNOTS AROUND 10Z TO 12Z
WEDNESDAY AT THE GUYMON AND DALHART TAF SITES AFTER A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...AND NORTHWEST TO NORTH 5 TO 15 KNOTS AT THE AMARILLO
TAF SITE AROUND 12Z TO 14Z WEDNESDAY AFTER THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WINDS WILL VEER BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST 5
TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 19Z TO 21Z WEDNESDAY AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. A MUCH
STRONGER COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE DALHART AND
POSSIBLY THE GUYMON TAF SITES BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z THURSDAY SHIFTING
THE WINDS BECK TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING TO AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 KNOTS. THE STRONGER COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AMARILLO TAF SITE SHORTLY AFTER THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD ENDS AT 06Z THURSDAY...OR LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DALHART AND GUYMON
TAF SITES AROUND 10Z TO 12Z WEDNESDAY SHIFTING THE SOUTHWEST WINDS 5
TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT
THE AMARILLO TAF SITE 5 TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH AROUND 13Z TO 15Z WEDNESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHICH PASSED BY YESTERDAY IS NOW LIFTING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST...WITH A FEW WEAKER DISTURBANCES RIDING AROUND THE
EDGES OF A WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS STRETCHED NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLES...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 30S WEST OF IT AND IN THE
LOW 60S TO THE EAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR EXPECTED AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG...WITH SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

ANY STORMY WEATHER SHOULD BE EAST OF THE PANHANDLES BY LATE
TONIGHT...AND FOCUS THEN TURNS TOWARD A STRONG COLD FRONT NEARING THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE
USHERED IN BY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PLAINS. IT
LOOKS TO BE ON A SPEEDY PACE WHEN IT ARRIVES IN THE PANHANDLES...WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE LIKELY THROUGH AMARILLO BY 12Z THURSDAY. AS WITH MANY
OF THESE COLD FRONTS...MOS GUIDANCE APPEARS TO UNDER-FORECAST WIND
SPEEDS. THEREFORE THIS FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE RAW MODEL WINDS
NEAR 20-25 KTS WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
GUSTS COULD NEAR 30-35 KTS THURSDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD BE GOOD TO
KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN ABOUT 15 DEGREES FROM RECENT DAYS...BUT WILL
CARRY VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. IN THE OK PANHANDLE AND
FAR NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE...COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER FORCING.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY...MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT SHOULD BE A PLEASANT AUTUMNAL WEEKEND...WITH
HIGHS WARMING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND MIN TEMPS MOSTLY IN
THE 50S. A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD EDGE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...MINUS
THE STRONG WINDS THIS TIME. A PATTERN CHANGE FROM NORTHWEST FLOW TO
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT MAY BE AHEAD FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SO STAY
TUNED FOR WHAT THAT MAY BRING IN THE DAYS AHEAD.

NF

FIRE WEATHER...
A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES COULD SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DIP BELOW 20 PERCENT TODAY AND TOMORROW...BUT FOLLOWING RECENT
RAINFALL NO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

NF

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/08







000
FXUS64 KAMA 302336
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
636 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DALHART AND GUYMON
TAF SITES AROUND 10Z TO 12Z WEDNESDAY SHIFTING THE SOUTHWEST WINDS 5
TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT
THE AMARILLO TAF SITE 5 TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH AROUND 13Z TO 15Z WEDNESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHICH PASSED BY YESTERDAY IS NOW LIFTING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST...WITH A FEW WEAKER DISTURBANCES RIDING AROUND THE
EDGES OF A WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS STRETCHED NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLES...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 30S WEST OF IT AND IN THE
LOW 60S TO THE EAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR EXPECTED AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG...WITH SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

ANY STORMY WEATHER SHOULD BE EAST OF THE PANHANDLES BY LATE
TONIGHT...AND FOCUS THEN TURNS TOWARD A STRONG COLD FRONT NEARING THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE
USHERED IN BY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PLAINS. IT
LOOKS TO BE ON A SPEEDY PACE WHEN IT ARRIVES IN THE PANHANDLES...WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE LIKELY THROUGH AMARILLO BY 12Z THURSDAY. AS WITH MANY
OF THESE COLD FRONTS...MOS GUIDANCE APPEARS TO UNDER-FORECAST WIND
SPEEDS. THEREFORE THIS FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE RAW MODEL WINDS
NEAR 20-25 KTS WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
GUSTS COULD NEAR 30-35 KTS THURSDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD BE GOOD TO
KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN ABOUT 15 DEGREES FROM RECENT DAYS...BUT WILL
CARRY VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. IN THE OK PANHANDLE AND
FAR NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE...COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER FORCING.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY...MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT SHOULD BE A PLEASANT AUTUMNAL WEEKEND...WITH
HIGHS WARMING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND MIN TEMPS MOSTLY IN
THE 50S. A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD EDGE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...MINUS
THE STRONG WINDS THIS TIME. A PATTERN CHANGE FROM NORTHWEST FLOW TO
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT MAY BE AHEAD FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SO STAY
TUNED FOR WHAT THAT MAY BRING IN THE DAYS AHEAD.

NF

FIRE WEATHER...
A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES COULD SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DIP BELOW 20 PERCENT TODAY AND TOMORROW...BUT FOLLOWING RECENT
RAINFALL NO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

NF

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/08






000
FXUS64 KAMA 302059
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
359 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHICH PASSED BY YESTERDAY IS NOW LIFTING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST...WITH A FEW WEAKER DISTURBANCES RIDING AROUND THE
EDGES OF A WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS STRETCHED NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLES...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 30S WEST OF IT AND IN THE
LOW 60S TO THE EAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR EXPECTED AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG...WITH SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

ANY STORMY WEATHER SHOULD BE EAST OF THE PANHANDLES BY LATE
TONIGHT...AND FOCUS THEN TURNS TOWARD A STRONG COLD FRONT NEARING THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE
USHERED IN BY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PLAINS. IT
LOOKS TO BE ON A SPEEDY PACE WHEN IT ARRIVES IN THE PANHANDLES...WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE LIKELY THROUGH AMARILLO BY 12Z THURSDAY. AS WITH MANY
OF THESE COLD FRONTS...MOS GUIDANCE APPEARS TO UNDER-FORECAST WIND
SPEEDS. THEREFORE THIS FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE RAW MODEL WINDS
NEAR 20-25 KTS WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
GUSTS COULD NEAR 30-35 KTS THURSDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD BE GOOD TO
KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN ABOUT 15 DEGREES FROM RECENT DAYS...BUT WILL
CARRY VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. IN THE OK PANHANDLE AND
FAR NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE...COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER FORCING.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY...MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT SHOULD BE A PLEASANT AUTUMNAL WEEKEND...WITH
HIGHS WARMING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND MIN TEMPS MOSTLY IN
THE 50S. A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD EDGE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...MINUS
THE STRONG WINDS THIS TIME. A PATTERN CHANGE FROM NORTHWEST FLOW TO
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT MAY BE AHEAD FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SO STAY
TUNED FOR WHAT THAT MAY BRING IN THE DAYS AHEAD.

NF

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES COULD SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DIP BELOW 20 PERCENT TODAY AND TOMORROW...BUT FOLLOWING RECENT
RAINFALL NO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

NF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                54  83  53  70  45 /  10   5   5   5   0
BEAVER OK                  58  84  55  70  45 /  20   5  20  20   0
BOISE CITY OK              49  78  50  67  43 /   0   5  20  20   0
BORGER TX                  58  86  56  73  50 /  10   0  10  10   0
BOYS RANCH TX              54  82  52  72  46 /   0   0  10  10   0
CANYON TX                  55  83  54  72  47 /  10   0   5   5   0
CLARENDON TX               60  88  55  76  48 /  30   5   5  10   0
DALHART TX                 51  81  52  71  44 /   0   5  10  10   0
GUYMON OK                  54  83  54  68  45 /   5   5  20  20   0
HEREFORD TX                55  83  54  73  43 /   5   0   5   5   0
LIPSCOMB TX                60  86  56  74  47 /  30   5  10  20   0
PAMPA TX                   58  84  53  71  47 /  20   5  10  10   0
SHAMROCK TX                61  89  57  74  48 /  40   5  10  10   0
WELLINGTON TX              63  90  59  77  51 /  30   5  10  10   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/06






000
FXUS64 KAMA 302059
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
359 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHICH PASSED BY YESTERDAY IS NOW LIFTING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST...WITH A FEW WEAKER DISTURBANCES RIDING AROUND THE
EDGES OF A WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS STRETCHED NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLES...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 30S WEST OF IT AND IN THE
LOW 60S TO THE EAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR EXPECTED AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG...WITH SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

ANY STORMY WEATHER SHOULD BE EAST OF THE PANHANDLES BY LATE
TONIGHT...AND FOCUS THEN TURNS TOWARD A STRONG COLD FRONT NEARING THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE
USHERED IN BY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PLAINS. IT
LOOKS TO BE ON A SPEEDY PACE WHEN IT ARRIVES IN THE PANHANDLES...WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE LIKELY THROUGH AMARILLO BY 12Z THURSDAY. AS WITH MANY
OF THESE COLD FRONTS...MOS GUIDANCE APPEARS TO UNDER-FORECAST WIND
SPEEDS. THEREFORE THIS FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE RAW MODEL WINDS
NEAR 20-25 KTS WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
GUSTS COULD NEAR 30-35 KTS THURSDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD BE GOOD TO
KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN ABOUT 15 DEGREES FROM RECENT DAYS...BUT WILL
CARRY VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. IN THE OK PANHANDLE AND
FAR NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE...COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER FORCING.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY...MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT SHOULD BE A PLEASANT AUTUMNAL WEEKEND...WITH
HIGHS WARMING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND MIN TEMPS MOSTLY IN
THE 50S. A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD EDGE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...MINUS
THE STRONG WINDS THIS TIME. A PATTERN CHANGE FROM NORTHWEST FLOW TO
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT MAY BE AHEAD FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SO STAY
TUNED FOR WHAT THAT MAY BRING IN THE DAYS AHEAD.

NF

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES COULD SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DIP BELOW 20 PERCENT TODAY AND TOMORROW...BUT FOLLOWING RECENT
RAINFALL NO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

NF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                54  83  53  70  45 /  10   5   5   5   0
BEAVER OK                  58  84  55  70  45 /  20   5  20  20   0
BOISE CITY OK              49  78  50  67  43 /   0   5  20  20   0
BORGER TX                  58  86  56  73  50 /  10   0  10  10   0
BOYS RANCH TX              54  82  52  72  46 /   0   0  10  10   0
CANYON TX                  55  83  54  72  47 /  10   0   5   5   0
CLARENDON TX               60  88  55  76  48 /  30   5   5  10   0
DALHART TX                 51  81  52  71  44 /   0   5  10  10   0
GUYMON OK                  54  83  54  68  45 /   5   5  20  20   0
HEREFORD TX                55  83  54  73  43 /   5   0   5   5   0
LIPSCOMB TX                60  86  56  74  47 /  30   5  10  20   0
PAMPA TX                   58  84  53  71  47 /  20   5  10  10   0
SHAMROCK TX                61  89  57  74  48 /  40   5  10  10   0
WELLINGTON TX              63  90  59  77  51 /  30   5  10  10   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/06







000
FXUS64 KAMA 301717 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1217 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE TERMINALS.  SMALL AMOUNT OF HIGH-BASED
CUMULUS OR ALTOCUMULUS WILL BE THE ONLY CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST.  WEAK
WIND SHIFT LINE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT KDHT...BUT OTHERWISE
LIGHT SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
AT ALL TERMINALS.  LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT UNDER A
GENERALLY CLEAR SKY.  WEAK COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...CAUSING SURFACE WINDS TO SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BETWEEN
12Z AND 14Z WEDNESDAY.  THREAT FOR EARLY MORNING FOG LOOKS TO BE LESS
THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 702 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

AVIATION...12Z TAFS

A LITTLE BIT OF BR AT KDHT SHOULD CLEAR OUT QUICKLY AND GIVE WAY TO
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE IS SOME THREAT OF FOG OR LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING AT KAMA LATE
TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SSW
BEFORE VEERING TO MORE WESTERLY AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SIMPSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER BFF EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND WILL BE IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE INSTABILITY AXIS WILL LINE UP ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA AND THIS INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE FOUND UNDER
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT THROUGH TONIGHT.
THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND IT WILL PASS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES ON
THURSDAY AS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME
LINGERING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH. BUT THE BETTER
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL COME WITH THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.

AFTER THURSDAY THE FORECAST GOES DRY AS A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DOMINATES.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THIS WEEK. THE WINDS WILL GET STRONG BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY...BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/06







000
FXUS64 KAMA 301202
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
702 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS

A LITTLE BIT OF BR AT KDHT SHOULD CLEAR OUT QUICKLY AND GIVE WAY TO
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE IS SOME THREAT OF FOG OR LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING AT KAMA LATE
TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SSW
BEFORE VEERING TO MORE WESTERLY AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SIMPSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER BFF EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND WILL BE IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE INSTABILITY AXIS WILL LINE UP ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA AND THIS INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE FOUND UNDER
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT THROUGH TONIGHT.
THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND IT WILL PASS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES ON
THURSDAY AS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME
LINGERING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH. BUT THE BETTER
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL COME WITH THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.

AFTER THURSDAY THE FORECAST GOES DRY AS A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DOMINATES.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THIS WEEK. THE WINDS WILL GET STRONG BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY...BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

09/99






000
FXUS64 KAMA 301202
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
702 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS

A LITTLE BIT OF BR AT KDHT SHOULD CLEAR OUT QUICKLY AND GIVE WAY TO
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE IS SOME THREAT OF FOG OR LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING AT KAMA LATE
TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SSW
BEFORE VEERING TO MORE WESTERLY AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SIMPSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER BFF EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND WILL BE IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE INSTABILITY AXIS WILL LINE UP ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA AND THIS INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE FOUND UNDER
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT THROUGH TONIGHT.
THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND IT WILL PASS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES ON
THURSDAY AS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME
LINGERING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH. BUT THE BETTER
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL COME WITH THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.

AFTER THURSDAY THE FORECAST GOES DRY AS A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DOMINATES.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THIS WEEK. THE WINDS WILL GET STRONG BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY...BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

09/99







000
FXUS64 KAMA 300751
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
251 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER BFF EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND WILL BE IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE INSTABILITY AXIS WILL LINE UP ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA AND THIS INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE FOUND UNDER
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT THROUGH TONIGHT.
THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND IT WILL PASS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES ON
THURSDAY AS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME
LINGERING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH. BUT THE BETTER
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL COME WITH THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.

AFTER THURSDAY THE FORECAST GOES DRY AS A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DOMINATES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THIS WEEK. THE WINDS WILL GET STRONG BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY...BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 20 PERCENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                83  52  83  53  71 /  10  10   5  10   5
BEAVER OK                  83  57  84  56  73 /  20  20  10  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              78  50  78  49  68 /   0   5   5  20  10
BORGER TX                  84  58  86  56  73 /  10  10   5  20   5
BOYS RANCH TX              83  53  82  53  73 /  10  10   0  10   5
CANYON TX                  83  56  83  53  72 /  10  10   0   5   5
CLARENDON TX               85  59  88  58  75 /  30  30  10  10  10
DALHART TX                 81  51  81  50  70 /   5   5   0  10   5
GUYMON OK                  82  53  83  53  71 /  10  10   5  20  10
HEREFORD TX                82  56  83  52  71 /  10  10   0   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                83  60  86  57  73 /  30  30  10  20  20
PAMPA TX                   82  56  84  55  71 /  20  20  10  20  10
SHAMROCK TX                85  60  89  60  75 /  20  30  20  10  10
WELLINGTON TX              86  63  90  61  78 /  20  30  20  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

09/15





000
FXUS64 KAMA 300433
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1133 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE DALHART AND GUYMON TAF SITES BY
06Z TUESDAY...AND EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AMARILLO TAF SITE
BETWEEN ABOUT 07Z TO 09Z TUESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
THE AMARILLO TAF SITE IN AND NEAR THE CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL BECOME SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 14Z TO 16Z TUESDAY...AND THEN
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH 5 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY AT THE GUYMON
AND AMARILLO TAF SITES. WINDS AT THE DALHART TAF SITE EXPECTED TO
BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST 5 TO 15 KNOTS BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z WEDNESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL ALLOW CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN
NEW MEXICO TO SPREAD ACROSS MAINLY THE DALHART AND THEN THE GUYMON
TAF SITES BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TUESDAY. SOME CONVECTION COULD POSSIBLY
AFFECT THE AMARILLO TAF SITE AROUND 04Z TO 07Z TUESDAY...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE LOW. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES EXCEPT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH STRONG AND ERRATIC WINDS
IN AND NEAR ANY CONVECTION. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 05Z TO
07Z TUESDAY...AND THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 14Z TO 16Z TUESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE FIRE WEATHER SECTION WHICH WAS BLANK IN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

NF

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES CONTINUES TO SPIN
EAST...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND JET MAX BRINGING A FOCUS FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. PAY ATTENTION FOR UPDATES TO THE SEVERE THREAT THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT FROM OTHER PRODUCTS AS APPROPRIATE.

THE MAIN ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THIS FORECAST ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE
TONIGHT/TOMORROW TIME FRAME. TRIMMED AND REDUCED POPS TO HIGHLIGHT
GREATEST THREAT AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS
FOR A LINE OF POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO NEAR THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE PANHANDLES FROM NM/CO TONIGHT AROUND 6-7 PM. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR EAST THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL PUSH
AFTER SUNSET...BUT THE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE DIMINISHED
BY 10 PM.

TUESDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLES...AS A SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA
AND ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LOW REMAINS NEARBY. STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
WINDS SHOULD GENERATE 30-40KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR...AND MLCAPE AROUND
1000-1500 J/KG ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH SUGGESTS A LOW
END CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MOVE EAST OF THE PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY...AND
FOCUS TURNS TOWARD A DECENT COLD FRONT PLUNGING FROM CO/KS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHOULD DRAG THIS
FRONT THROUGH SOMETIME DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH THE CURRENT
THINKING BEING ON THE FASTER SIDE. THESE EARLY SEASON COLD FRONTS
TEND TO BE ON THE QUICK SIDE. IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KNOCK BACK
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES AND USHER IN A LITTLE DRIER AIR TO THE
REGION. WINDS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY WITH THIS FRONT AS IT PASSES
THROUGH. QUIET WEATHER THEN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FIRE WEATHER...
THOUGH FINE GRASSY FUEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LITTLE CONCERN
FOR FIRE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT WEEK...AREAS WEST OF A SURFACE TROUGH
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD SEE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15
MPH IN THOSE AREAS.

NF

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/99







000
FXUS64 KAMA 292256
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
556 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL ALLOW CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN
NEW MEXICO TO SPREAD ACROSS MAINLY THE DALHART AND THEN THE GUYMON
TAF SITES BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TUESDAY. SOME CONVECTION COULD POSSIBLY
AFFECT THE AMARILLO TAF SITE AROUND 04Z TO 07Z TUESDAY...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE LOW. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES EXCEPT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH STRONG AND ERRATIC WINDS
IN AND NEAR ANY CONVECTION. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 05Z TO
07Z TUESDAY...AND THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 14Z TO 16Z TUESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE FIRE WEATHER SECTION WHICH WAS BLANK IN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

NF

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES CONTINUES TO SPIN
EAST...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND JET MAX BRINGING A FOCUS FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. PAY ATTENTION FOR UPDATES TO THE SEVERE THREAT THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT FROM OTHER PRODUCTS AS APPROPRIATE.

THE MAIN ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THIS FORECAST ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE
TONIGHT/TOMORROW TIME FRAME. TRIMMED AND REDUCED POPS TO HIGHLIGHT
GREATEST THREAT AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS
FOR A LINE OF POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO NEAR THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE PANHANDLES FROM NM/CO TONIGHT AROUND 6-7 PM. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR EAST THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL PUSH
AFTER SUNSET...BUT THE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE DIMINISHED
BY 10 PM.

TUESDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLES...AS A SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA
AND ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LOW REMAINS NEARBY. STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
WINDS SHOULD GENERATE 30-40KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR...AND MLCAPE AROUND
1000-1500 J/KG ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH SUGGESTS A LOW
END CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MOVE EAST OF THE PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY...AND
FOCUS TURNS TOWARD A DECENT COLD FRONT PLUNGING FROM CO/KS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHOULD DRAG THIS
FRONT THROUGH SOMETIME DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH THE CURRENT
THINKING BEING ON THE FASTER SIDE. THESE EARLY SEASON COLD FRONTS
TEND TO BE ON THE QUICK SIDE. IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KNOCK BACK
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES AND USHER IN A LITTLE DRIER AIR TO THE
REGION. WINDS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY WITH THIS FRONT AS IT PASSES
THROUGH. QUIET WEATHER THEN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FIRE WEATHER...
THOUGH FINE GRASSY FUEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LITTLE CONCERN
FOR FIRE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT WEEK...AREAS WEST OF A SURFACE TROUGH
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD SEE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15
MPH IN THOSE AREAS.

NF

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/08






000
FXUS64 KAMA 292132 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
432 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE FIRE WEATHER SECTION WHICH WAS BLANK IN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES CONTINUES TO SPIN
EAST...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND JET MAX BRINGING A FOCUS FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. PAY ATTENTION FOR UPDATES TO THE SEVERE THREAT THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT FROM OTHER PRODUCTS AS APPROPRIATE.

THE MAIN ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THIS FORECAST ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE
TONIGHT/TOMORROW TIME FRAME. TRIMMED AND REDUCED POPS TO HIGHLIGHT
GREATEST THREAT AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS
FOR A LINE OF POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO NEAR THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE PANHANDLES FROM NM/CO TONIGHT AROUND 6-7 PM. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR EAST THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL PUSH
AFTER SUNSET...BUT THE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE DIMINISHED
BY 10 PM.

TUESDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLES...AS A SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA
AND ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LOW REMAINS NEARBY. STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
WINDS SHOULD GENERATE 30-40KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR...AND MLCAPE AROUND
1000-1500 J/KG ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH SUGGESTS A LOW
END CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MOVE EAST OF THE PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY...AND
FOCUS TURNS TOWARD A DECENT COLD FRONT PLUNGING FROM CO/KS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHOULD DRAG THIS
FRONT THROUGH SOMETIME DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH THE CURRENT
THINKING BEING ON THE FASTER SIDE. THESE EARLY SEASON COLD FRONTS
TEND TO BE ON THE QUICK SIDE. IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KNOCK BACK
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES AND USHER IN A LITTLE DRIER AIR TO THE
REGION. WINDS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY WITH THIS FRONT AS IT PASSES
THROUGH. QUIET WEATHER THEN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FIRE WEATHER...
THOUGH FINE GRASSY FUEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LITTLE CONCERN
FOR FIRE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT WEEK...AREAS WEST OF A SURFACE TROUGH
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD SEE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15
MPH IN THOSE AREAS.

NF

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/06







000
FXUS64 KAMA 292132 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
432 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE FIRE WEATHER SECTION WHICH WAS BLANK IN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES CONTINUES TO SPIN
EAST...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND JET MAX BRINGING A FOCUS FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. PAY ATTENTION FOR UPDATES TO THE SEVERE THREAT THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT FROM OTHER PRODUCTS AS APPROPRIATE.

THE MAIN ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THIS FORECAST ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE
TONIGHT/TOMORROW TIME FRAME. TRIMMED AND REDUCED POPS TO HIGHLIGHT
GREATEST THREAT AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS
FOR A LINE OF POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO NEAR THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE PANHANDLES FROM NM/CO TONIGHT AROUND 6-7 PM. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR EAST THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL PUSH
AFTER SUNSET...BUT THE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE DIMINISHED
BY 10 PM.

TUESDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLES...AS A SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA
AND ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LOW REMAINS NEARBY. STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
WINDS SHOULD GENERATE 30-40KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR...AND MLCAPE AROUND
1000-1500 J/KG ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH SUGGESTS A LOW
END CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MOVE EAST OF THE PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY...AND
FOCUS TURNS TOWARD A DECENT COLD FRONT PLUNGING FROM CO/KS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHOULD DRAG THIS
FRONT THROUGH SOMETIME DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH THE CURRENT
THINKING BEING ON THE FASTER SIDE. THESE EARLY SEASON COLD FRONTS
TEND TO BE ON THE QUICK SIDE. IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KNOCK BACK
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES AND USHER IN A LITTLE DRIER AIR TO THE
REGION. WINDS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY WITH THIS FRONT AS IT PASSES
THROUGH. QUIET WEATHER THEN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FIRE WEATHER...
THOUGH FINE GRASSY FUEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LITTLE CONCERN
FOR FIRE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT WEEK...AREAS WEST OF A SURFACE TROUGH
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD SEE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15
MPH IN THOSE AREAS.

NF

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/06






000
FXUS64 KAMA 292113
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
413 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES CONTINUES TO SPIN
EAST...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND JET MAX BRINGING A FOCUS FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. PAY ATTENTION FOR UPDATES TO THE SEVERE THREAT THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT FROM OTHER PRODUCTS AS APPROPRIATE.

THE MAIN ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THIS FORECAST ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE
TONIGHT/TOMORROW TIME FRAME. TRIMMED AND REDUCED POPS TO HIGHLIGHT
GREATEST THREAT AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS
FOR A LINE OF POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO NEAR THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE PANHANDLES FROM NM/CO TONIGHT AROUND 6-7 PM. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR EAST THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL PUSH
AFTER SUNSET...BUT THE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE DIMINISHED
BY 10 PM.

TUESDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLES...AS A SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA
AND ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LOW REMAINS NEARBY. STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
WINDS SHOULD GENERATE 30-40KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR...AND MLCAPE AROUND
1000-1500 J/KG ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH SUGGESTS A LOW
END CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MOVE EAST OF THE PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY...AND
FOCUS TURNS TOWARD A DECENT COLD FRONT PLUNGING FROM CO/KS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHOULD DRAG THIS
FRONT THROUGH SOMETIME DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH THE CURRENT
THINKING BEING ON THE FASTER SIDE. THESE EARLY SEASON COLD FRONTS
TEND TO BE ON THE QUICK SIDE. IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KNOCK BACK
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES AND USHER IN A LITTLE DRIER AIR TO THE
REGION. WINDS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY WITH THIS FRONT AS IT PASSES
THROUGH. QUIET WEATHER THEN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                59  83  55  84  52 /  30  10  10   5  10
BEAVER OK                  63  83  57  84  54 /  40  20  20  10  20
BOISE CITY OK              55  79  50  79  48 /  70   0   5   5  20
BORGER TX                  62  84  59  87  55 /  30  10  10   5  20
BOYS RANCH TX              60  84  53  83  52 /  50  10  10   0  10
CANYON TX                  59  83  58  84  51 /  30  10  10   0   5
CLARENDON TX               62  84  60  88  57 /  20  30  30  10  10
DALHART TX                 56  82  50  80  48 /  70   5   5   0  10
GUYMON OK                  59  83  53  82  51 /  60  10  10   5  20
HEREFORD TX                59  82  57  83  51 /  30  10  10   0   5
LIPSCOMB TX                65  84  60  86  56 /  30  30  30  10  20
PAMPA TX                   61  81  57  85  54 /  30  20  20  10  20
SHAMROCK TX                63  84  60  89  59 /  20  20  30  20  10
WELLINGTON TX              63  86  63  91  59 /  10  20  30  20  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/06







000
FXUS64 KAMA 292113
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
413 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES CONTINUES TO SPIN
EAST...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND JET MAX BRINGING A FOCUS FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. PAY ATTENTION FOR UPDATES TO THE SEVERE THREAT THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT FROM OTHER PRODUCTS AS APPROPRIATE.

THE MAIN ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THIS FORECAST ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE
TONIGHT/TOMORROW TIME FRAME. TRIMMED AND REDUCED POPS TO HIGHLIGHT
GREATEST THREAT AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS
FOR A LINE OF POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO NEAR THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE PANHANDLES FROM NM/CO TONIGHT AROUND 6-7 PM. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR EAST THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL PUSH
AFTER SUNSET...BUT THE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE DIMINISHED
BY 10 PM.

TUESDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLES...AS A SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA
AND ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LOW REMAINS NEARBY. STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
WINDS SHOULD GENERATE 30-40KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR...AND MLCAPE AROUND
1000-1500 J/KG ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH SUGGESTS A LOW
END CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MOVE EAST OF THE PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY...AND
FOCUS TURNS TOWARD A DECENT COLD FRONT PLUNGING FROM CO/KS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHOULD DRAG THIS
FRONT THROUGH SOMETIME DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH THE CURRENT
THINKING BEING ON THE FASTER SIDE. THESE EARLY SEASON COLD FRONTS
TEND TO BE ON THE QUICK SIDE. IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KNOCK BACK
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES AND USHER IN A LITTLE DRIER AIR TO THE
REGION. WINDS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY WITH THIS FRONT AS IT PASSES
THROUGH. QUIET WEATHER THEN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                59  83  55  84  52 /  30  10  10   5  10
BEAVER OK                  63  83  57  84  54 /  40  20  20  10  20
BOISE CITY OK              55  79  50  79  48 /  70   0   5   5  20
BORGER TX                  62  84  59  87  55 /  30  10  10   5  20
BOYS RANCH TX              60  84  53  83  52 /  50  10  10   0  10
CANYON TX                  59  83  58  84  51 /  30  10  10   0   5
CLARENDON TX               62  84  60  88  57 /  20  30  30  10  10
DALHART TX                 56  82  50  80  48 /  70   5   5   0  10
GUYMON OK                  59  83  53  82  51 /  60  10  10   5  20
HEREFORD TX                59  82  57  83  51 /  30  10  10   0   5
LIPSCOMB TX                65  84  60  86  56 /  30  30  30  10  20
PAMPA TX                   61  81  57  85  54 /  30  20  20  10  20
SHAMROCK TX                63  84  60  89  59 /  20  20  30  20  10
WELLINGTON TX              63  86  63  91  59 /  10  20  30  20  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/06






000
FXUS64 KAMA 291739 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1239 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.  BY EARLY THIS EVENING...
EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA.  THUS...HAVE CALLED FOR
OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS AT KDHT AND KGUY BEGINNING AT 01Z AND 02Z
TUESDAY RESPECTIVELY.  THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LESS
WIDESPREAD FARTHER SOUTH...WHERE CAP IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER.
THEREFORE...VCTS REMARK IS IN FORECAST FOR KAMA BEGINNING AT 02Z
TUESDAY.  DEVELOPMENTS DURING NEXT SIX TO TEN HOURS WILL BE MONITORED
WITH AMENDMENTS LIKELY.  APART FROM BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN
THUNDERSTORMS...VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 12Z

THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR BR IS POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES THIS
MORNING BUT NOT ALL THAT LIKELY. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
NOTED AT KDHT AND KGUY THIS EVENING. THINK EVENTUALLY PREVAILING OR
TEMPO GROUPS WILL HAVE TO BE ADDED...BUT STAYED OPTIMISTIC WITH VCTS
FOR NOW. CHANCES FOR STORMS AT KAMA ARE LOW THIS EVENING BUT CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.

SIMPSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION LATER TODAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER EASTERN CO WHILE A
DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN IN CENTRAL NM. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WHILE
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT INCREASES AS THE UPPER LOW ACQUIRES A NEGATIVE
TILT AS IT SLOWLY MOVES OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER TODAY.
WITH DAYTIME TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S...INSTABILITY
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS ALOFT WILL COOL AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
CLOSER TO THE AREA...LEADING TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. HIGH RES
MODELS INDICATE STORMS FIRING IN EASTERN NM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN
MOVING INTO THE AMA CWA AS THEY TAKE ON A MORE LINEAR MODE. A FEW
SUPERCELL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE INCREASING BULK
SHEAR. MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF A BOISE CITY TO GLENRIO
LINE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE MAIN FORCING FROM THIS UPPER LOW.

STORMS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS FURTHER
TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER CAN SEE STORMS REFIRE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
OVER THE EASTERN ZONES AS A PACIFIC FRONT DRYLINE FEATURE MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES. WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS BETTER TODAY AS
LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER...CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS.
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

LONG TERM...
PLEASANT FALL WX CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
WITH RAIN CHANCES HOLDING ON FOR WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL ROTATE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW AND MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE STRONGER LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...HEIGHT
FALLS AND CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE CAN RESULT IN STORM DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES
FURTHER TO THE EAST. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER WX TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/06







000
FXUS64 KAMA 291739 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1239 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.  BY EARLY THIS EVENING...
EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA.  THUS...HAVE CALLED FOR
OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS AT KDHT AND KGUY BEGINNING AT 01Z AND 02Z
TUESDAY RESPECTIVELY.  THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LESS
WIDESPREAD FARTHER SOUTH...WHERE CAP IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER.
THEREFORE...VCTS REMARK IS IN FORECAST FOR KAMA BEGINNING AT 02Z
TUESDAY.  DEVELOPMENTS DURING NEXT SIX TO TEN HOURS WILL BE MONITORED
WITH AMENDMENTS LIKELY.  APART FROM BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN
THUNDERSTORMS...VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 12Z

THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR BR IS POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES THIS
MORNING BUT NOT ALL THAT LIKELY. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
NOTED AT KDHT AND KGUY THIS EVENING. THINK EVENTUALLY PREVAILING OR
TEMPO GROUPS WILL HAVE TO BE ADDED...BUT STAYED OPTIMISTIC WITH VCTS
FOR NOW. CHANCES FOR STORMS AT KAMA ARE LOW THIS EVENING BUT CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.

SIMPSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION LATER TODAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER EASTERN CO WHILE A
DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN IN CENTRAL NM. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WHILE
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT INCREASES AS THE UPPER LOW ACQUIRES A NEGATIVE
TILT AS IT SLOWLY MOVES OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER TODAY.
WITH DAYTIME TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S...INSTABILITY
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS ALOFT WILL COOL AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
CLOSER TO THE AREA...LEADING TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. HIGH RES
MODELS INDICATE STORMS FIRING IN EASTERN NM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN
MOVING INTO THE AMA CWA AS THEY TAKE ON A MORE LINEAR MODE. A FEW
SUPERCELL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE INCREASING BULK
SHEAR. MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF A BOISE CITY TO GLENRIO
LINE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE MAIN FORCING FROM THIS UPPER LOW.

STORMS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS FURTHER
TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER CAN SEE STORMS REFIRE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
OVER THE EASTERN ZONES AS A PACIFIC FRONT DRYLINE FEATURE MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES. WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS BETTER TODAY AS
LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER...CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS.
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

LONG TERM...
PLEASANT FALL WX CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
WITH RAIN CHANCES HOLDING ON FOR WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL ROTATE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW AND MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE STRONGER LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...HEIGHT
FALLS AND CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE CAN RESULT IN STORM DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES
FURTHER TO THE EAST. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER WX TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/06






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