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000
FXUS64 KAMA 201757
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1157 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 11 AM AS VISIBILITIES
HAVE IMPROVED MARKEDLY OVER MOST OF THE AREA. STILL A LINGERING
POCKET OF DENSE FOG NEAR DALHART...BUT SHOULD SEE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THERE AS WELL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

KB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE CLEARED OUT OF KAMA...AND WILL
CLEAR OUT OF KDHT AND KGUY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND ASSOCIATED LOW CIGS IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT. HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF FG/FZFG AT KAMA...WHERE
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S. CONFIDENCE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
LOWER AT KDHT AND KGUY...WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO VEER
LIGHT WINDS TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT...KEEPING DRIER AIR IN PLACE NEAR
THE SURFACE. WILL KEEP KDHT VFR OVERNIGHT AS THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FARTHER EAST...AND CARRY SOME MVFR VSBYS FOR NOW AT KGUY WHICH
LOOKS TO BE MORE ON THE EDGE OF THE ANTICIPATED FOG.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 847 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

UPDATE...
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE AS
VISIBILITIES AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE DROPPED TO A QUARTER MILE OR
LESS IN THE PAST HOUR. SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE THIS
MORNING.

KB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.  AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 10 AM.  MORE FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT.  EXPECT
CLOUDS TO LINGER MOST OF THE DAY IN SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN SECTIONS...
HOLDING MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-40S.
REMAINING AREAS EXPECTED TO REACH LOWER 50S.

WARMER ON SUNDAY AS COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS DISPLACED
EASTWARD.

COLD FRONT MONDAY WILL REVERSE WARMING TREND IN NORTHERN SECTIONS...
AND WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHERN
SECTIONS.  HAVE RETAINED LOW POPS IN NORTHWEST MONDAY...AND HAVE
INCREASED SAME MONDAY NIGHT IN WESTERN SECTIONS...WHILE SPREADING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EASTWARD TO INCLUDE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE.
COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW MIX IN WITH LIGHT RAIN...BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

NORTH WINDS ON TUESDAY EXPECTED TO HOLD MAX TEMPERATURES BELOW 50
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.  WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS NEXT
LEE TROF DEVELOPS.  COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT CAUSES FRIDAY TO BE
COOLER AGAIN.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/02






000
FXUS64 KAMA 201757
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1157 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 11 AM AS VISIBILITIES
HAVE IMPROVED MARKEDLY OVER MOST OF THE AREA. STILL A LINGERING
POCKET OF DENSE FOG NEAR DALHART...BUT SHOULD SEE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THERE AS WELL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

KB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE CLEARED OUT OF KAMA...AND WILL
CLEAR OUT OF KDHT AND KGUY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND ASSOCIATED LOW CIGS IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT. HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF FG/FZFG AT KAMA...WHERE
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S. CONFIDENCE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
LOWER AT KDHT AND KGUY...WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO VEER
LIGHT WINDS TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT...KEEPING DRIER AIR IN PLACE NEAR
THE SURFACE. WILL KEEP KDHT VFR OVERNIGHT AS THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FARTHER EAST...AND CARRY SOME MVFR VSBYS FOR NOW AT KGUY WHICH
LOOKS TO BE MORE ON THE EDGE OF THE ANTICIPATED FOG.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 847 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

UPDATE...
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE AS
VISIBILITIES AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE DROPPED TO A QUARTER MILE OR
LESS IN THE PAST HOUR. SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE THIS
MORNING.

KB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.  AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 10 AM.  MORE FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT.  EXPECT
CLOUDS TO LINGER MOST OF THE DAY IN SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN SECTIONS...
HOLDING MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-40S.
REMAINING AREAS EXPECTED TO REACH LOWER 50S.

WARMER ON SUNDAY AS COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS DISPLACED
EASTWARD.

COLD FRONT MONDAY WILL REVERSE WARMING TREND IN NORTHERN SECTIONS...
AND WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHERN
SECTIONS.  HAVE RETAINED LOW POPS IN NORTHWEST MONDAY...AND HAVE
INCREASED SAME MONDAY NIGHT IN WESTERN SECTIONS...WHILE SPREADING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EASTWARD TO INCLUDE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE.
COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW MIX IN WITH LIGHT RAIN...BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

NORTH WINDS ON TUESDAY EXPECTED TO HOLD MAX TEMPERATURES BELOW 50
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.  WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS NEXT
LEE TROF DEVELOPS.  COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT CAUSES FRIDAY TO BE
COOLER AGAIN.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/02







000
FXUS64 KAMA 201447 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
847 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE AS
VISIBILITIES AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE DROPPED TO A QUARTER MILE OR
LESS IN THE PAST HOUR. SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE THIS
MORNING.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

AVIATION...
ANOTHER MORNING OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. KAMA
HAS MAINLY BEEN IMPACTED BY THE LOW STRATUS, KDHT IS MORE AFFECTED
BY PATCH FOG, AND KGUY HAS MISSED OUT SO FAR AS THE EDGE OF THE
STRATUS APPROACHES. WILL START OFF THE TAF CYCLE PESSIMISTIC WITH A
COMBINATION OF LIFR AND IFR AT THE TERMINALS. CURRENTLY THINK KGUY
WILL BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE DEGRADED CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE THEN
IMPROVE WHERE AS KAMA AND KDHT WILL SEE A SLOWER IMPROVEMENT THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING HOURS. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR
AFTER NOON WITH LIGHT WINDS. TONIGHT WILL BE QUESTIONABLE TO THE AREA
IMPACTED BY FOG /STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT. HAVE FLIGHT CATEGORIES
DROPPING TO IFR AT KAMA AROUND 9Z BUT KEPT KDHT AND KGUY VFR DUE TO
LOWER CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.  AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 10 AM.  MORE FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT.  EXPECT
CLOUDS TO LINGER MOST OF THE DAY IN SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN SECTIONS...
HOLDING MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-40S.
REMAINING AREAS EXPECTED TO REACH LOWER 50S.

WARMER ON SUNDAY AS COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS DISPLACED
EASTWARD.

COLD FRONT MONDAY WILL REVERSE WARMING TREND IN NORTHERN SECTIONS...
AND WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHERN
SECTIONS.  HAVE RETAINED LOW POPS IN NORTHWEST MONDAY...AND HAVE
INCREASED SAME MONDAY NIGHT IN WESTERN SECTIONS...WHILE SPREADING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EASTWARD TO INCLUDE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE.
COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW MIX IN WITH LIGHT RAIN...BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

NORTH WINDS ON TUESDAY EXPECTED TO HOLD MAX TEMPERATURES BELOW 50
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.  WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS NEXT
LEE TROF DEVELOPS.  COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT CAUSES FRIDAY TO BE
COOLER AGAIN.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...
     OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/02







000
FXUS64 KAMA 201447 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
847 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE AS
VISIBILITIES AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE DROPPED TO A QUARTER MILE OR
LESS IN THE PAST HOUR. SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE THIS
MORNING.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

AVIATION...
ANOTHER MORNING OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. KAMA
HAS MAINLY BEEN IMPACTED BY THE LOW STRATUS, KDHT IS MORE AFFECTED
BY PATCH FOG, AND KGUY HAS MISSED OUT SO FAR AS THE EDGE OF THE
STRATUS APPROACHES. WILL START OFF THE TAF CYCLE PESSIMISTIC WITH A
COMBINATION OF LIFR AND IFR AT THE TERMINALS. CURRENTLY THINK KGUY
WILL BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE DEGRADED CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE THEN
IMPROVE WHERE AS KAMA AND KDHT WILL SEE A SLOWER IMPROVEMENT THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING HOURS. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR
AFTER NOON WITH LIGHT WINDS. TONIGHT WILL BE QUESTIONABLE TO THE AREA
IMPACTED BY FOG /STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT. HAVE FLIGHT CATEGORIES
DROPPING TO IFR AT KAMA AROUND 9Z BUT KEPT KDHT AND KGUY VFR DUE TO
LOWER CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.  AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 10 AM.  MORE FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT.  EXPECT
CLOUDS TO LINGER MOST OF THE DAY IN SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN SECTIONS...
HOLDING MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-40S.
REMAINING AREAS EXPECTED TO REACH LOWER 50S.

WARMER ON SUNDAY AS COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS DISPLACED
EASTWARD.

COLD FRONT MONDAY WILL REVERSE WARMING TREND IN NORTHERN SECTIONS...
AND WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHERN
SECTIONS.  HAVE RETAINED LOW POPS IN NORTHWEST MONDAY...AND HAVE
INCREASED SAME MONDAY NIGHT IN WESTERN SECTIONS...WHILE SPREADING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EASTWARD TO INCLUDE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE.
COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW MIX IN WITH LIGHT RAIN...BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

NORTH WINDS ON TUESDAY EXPECTED TO HOLD MAX TEMPERATURES BELOW 50
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.  WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS NEXT
LEE TROF DEVELOPS.  COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT CAUSES FRIDAY TO BE
COOLER AGAIN.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...
     OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/02






000
FXUS64 KAMA 201109
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
509 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
ANOTHER MORNING OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. KAMA
HAS MAINLY BEEN IMPACTED BY THE LOW STRATUS, KDHT IS MORE AFFECTED
BY PATCH FOG, AND KGUY HAS MISSED OUT SO FAR AS THE EDGE OF THE
STRATUS APPROACHES. WILL START OFF THE TAF CYCLE PESSIMISTIC WITH A
COMBINATION OF LIFR AND IFR AT THE TERMINALS. CURRENTLY THINK KGUY
WILL BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE DEGRADED CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE THEN
IMPROVE WHERE AS KAMA AND KDHT WILL SEE A SLOWER IMPROVEMENT THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING HOURS. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR
AFTER NOON WITH LIGHT WINDS. TONIGHT WILL BE QUESTIONABLE TO THE AREA
IMPACTED BY FOG /STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT. HAVE FLIGHT CATEGORIES
DROPPING TO IFR AT KAMA AROUND 9Z BUT KEPT KDHT AND KGUY VFR DUE TO
LOWER CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.  AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 10 AM.  MORE FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT.  EXPECT
CLOUDS TO LINGER MOST OF THE DAY IN SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN SECTIONS...
HOLDING MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-40S.
REMAINING AREAS EXPECTED TO REACH LOWER 50S.

WARMER ON SUNDAY AS COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS DISPLACED
EASTWARD.

COLD FRONT MONDAY WILL REVERSE WARMING TREND IN NORTHERN SECTIONS...
AND WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHERN
SECTIONS.  HAVE RETAINED LOW POPS IN NORTHWEST MONDAY...AND HAVE
INCREASED SAME MONDAY NIGHT IN WESTERN SECTIONS...WHILE SPREADING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EASTWARD TO INCLUDE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE.
COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW MIX IN WITH LIGHT RAIN...BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

NORTH WINDS ON TUESDAY EXPECTED TO HOLD MAX TEMPERATURES BELOW 50
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.  WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS NEXT
LEE TROF DEVELOPS.  COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT CAUSES FRIDAY TO BE
COOLER AGAIN.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/03







000
FXUS64 KAMA 201109
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
509 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
ANOTHER MORNING OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. KAMA
HAS MAINLY BEEN IMPACTED BY THE LOW STRATUS, KDHT IS MORE AFFECTED
BY PATCH FOG, AND KGUY HAS MISSED OUT SO FAR AS THE EDGE OF THE
STRATUS APPROACHES. WILL START OFF THE TAF CYCLE PESSIMISTIC WITH A
COMBINATION OF LIFR AND IFR AT THE TERMINALS. CURRENTLY THINK KGUY
WILL BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE DEGRADED CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE THEN
IMPROVE WHERE AS KAMA AND KDHT WILL SEE A SLOWER IMPROVEMENT THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING HOURS. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR
AFTER NOON WITH LIGHT WINDS. TONIGHT WILL BE QUESTIONABLE TO THE AREA
IMPACTED BY FOG /STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT. HAVE FLIGHT CATEGORIES
DROPPING TO IFR AT KAMA AROUND 9Z BUT KEPT KDHT AND KGUY VFR DUE TO
LOWER CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.  AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 10 AM.  MORE FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT.  EXPECT
CLOUDS TO LINGER MOST OF THE DAY IN SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN SECTIONS...
HOLDING MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-40S.
REMAINING AREAS EXPECTED TO REACH LOWER 50S.

WARMER ON SUNDAY AS COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS DISPLACED
EASTWARD.

COLD FRONT MONDAY WILL REVERSE WARMING TREND IN NORTHERN SECTIONS...
AND WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHERN
SECTIONS.  HAVE RETAINED LOW POPS IN NORTHWEST MONDAY...AND HAVE
INCREASED SAME MONDAY NIGHT IN WESTERN SECTIONS...WHILE SPREADING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EASTWARD TO INCLUDE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE.
COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW MIX IN WITH LIGHT RAIN...BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

NORTH WINDS ON TUESDAY EXPECTED TO HOLD MAX TEMPERATURES BELOW 50
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.  WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS NEXT
LEE TROF DEVELOPS.  COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT CAUSES FRIDAY TO BE
COOLER AGAIN.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/03






000
FXUS64 KAMA 201028
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
420 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.  AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 10 AM.  MORE FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT.  EXPECT
CLOUDS TO LINGER MOST OF THE DAY IN SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN SECTIONS...
HOLDING MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-40S.
REMAINING AREAS EXPECTED TO REACH LOWER 50S.

WARMER ON SUNDAY AS COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS DISPLACED
EASTWARD.

COLD FRONT MONDAY WILL REVERSE WARMING TREND IN NORTHERN SECTIONS...
AND WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHERN
SECTIONS.  HAVE RETAINED LOW POPS IN NORTHWEST MONDAY...AND HAVE
INCREASED SAME MONDAY NIGHT IN WESTERN SECTIONS...WHILE SPREADING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EASTWARD TO INCLUDE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE.
COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW MIX IN WITH LIGHT RAIN...BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

NORTH WINDS ON TUESDAY EXPECTED TO HOLD MAX TEMPERATURES BELOW 50
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.  WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS NEXT
LEE TROF DEVELOPS.  COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT CAUSES FRIDAY TO BE
COOLER AGAIN.

COCKRELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                51  30  58  35  58 /   0   0   0   0   5
BEAVER OK                  48  30  55  34  53 /   0   0   0   0   5
BOISE CITY OK              52  25  58  34  49 /   0   0   0   0  20
BORGER TX                  50  32  58  37  54 /   0   0   0   0   5
BOYS RANCH TX              53  26  60  34  57 /   0   0   0   0   5
CANYON TX                  52  29  60  35  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               48  33  56  37  63 /   0   0   0   0   5
DALHART TX                 52  24  58  32  54 /   0   0   0   0   5
GUYMON OK                  50  27  58  34  52 /   0   0   0   0  10
HEREFORD TX                53  26  60  35  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                47  34  55  37  55 /   0   0   5   0   5
PAMPA TX                   47  32  52  35  55 /   0   0   0   0   5
SHAMROCK TX                46  35  52  37  60 /   0   0   5   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              45  36  53  38  62 /   0   0   5   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/03





000
FXUS64 KAMA 201028
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
420 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.  AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 10 AM.  MORE FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT.  EXPECT
CLOUDS TO LINGER MOST OF THE DAY IN SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN SECTIONS...
HOLDING MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-40S.
REMAINING AREAS EXPECTED TO REACH LOWER 50S.

WARMER ON SUNDAY AS COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS DISPLACED
EASTWARD.

COLD FRONT MONDAY WILL REVERSE WARMING TREND IN NORTHERN SECTIONS...
AND WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHERN
SECTIONS.  HAVE RETAINED LOW POPS IN NORTHWEST MONDAY...AND HAVE
INCREASED SAME MONDAY NIGHT IN WESTERN SECTIONS...WHILE SPREADING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EASTWARD TO INCLUDE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE.
COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW MIX IN WITH LIGHT RAIN...BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

NORTH WINDS ON TUESDAY EXPECTED TO HOLD MAX TEMPERATURES BELOW 50
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.  WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS NEXT
LEE TROF DEVELOPS.  COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT CAUSES FRIDAY TO BE
COOLER AGAIN.

COCKRELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                51  30  58  35  58 /   0   0   0   0   5
BEAVER OK                  48  30  55  34  53 /   0   0   0   0   5
BOISE CITY OK              52  25  58  34  49 /   0   0   0   0  20
BORGER TX                  50  32  58  37  54 /   0   0   0   0   5
BOYS RANCH TX              53  26  60  34  57 /   0   0   0   0   5
CANYON TX                  52  29  60  35  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               48  33  56  37  63 /   0   0   0   0   5
DALHART TX                 52  24  58  32  54 /   0   0   0   0   5
GUYMON OK                  50  27  58  34  52 /   0   0   0   0  10
HEREFORD TX                53  26  60  35  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                47  34  55  37  55 /   0   0   5   0   5
PAMPA TX                   47  32  52  35  55 /   0   0   0   0   5
SHAMROCK TX                46  35  52  37  60 /   0   0   5   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              45  36  53  38  62 /   0   0   5   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/03






000
FXUS64 KAMA 200446 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1046 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. LOW CIGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE AT ALL TAF SITES
BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON SATURDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AT SPEEDS MAINLY UNDER 12 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR
OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD WESTWARD...WITH LIFR/IFR CEILINGS AND FOG LIKELY
AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO MVFR
LATE MORNING AND SCATTER OUT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 8-15KTS BY AFTERNOON.

ELSENHEIMER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH AREAS OF FOG ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING LASTING INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN/SHARPEN TOWARD MORNING ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
POSITION OF THE LEE TROUGH SOME AREAS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED CHANCES OF FOG EITHER FORMING OR PERSISTING INTO THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW GIVEN DRIER WESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH. CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TO ONCE AGAIN LINGER LONGER THAN EXPECTED TOMORROW AND
IMPLICATIONS THAT MAY HAVE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST DOWNWARD FOR TOMORROW TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
FOG MAY FORM ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TOMORROW
NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY MORE AMPLIFIED
NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG MID-UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST AND A DEEP TROUGH EVOLVES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. IN
BETWEEN...MEAN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE PLAINS.
THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE IN THIS PATTERN IS VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING
AROUND DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW POTENTIALLY FORCING PERIODIC BRIEF
RELATIVELY INSIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENTS IN OUR REGION AS WELL
AS MODEST COLD SURGES. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF THESE
PERTURBATIONS. FROM AN ENSEMBLE MEAN PERSPECTIVE INDIVIDUAL WAVES ARE
DAMPENED OUT EXCEPT FOR THE ONE THAT MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THIS
SEEMS TO BE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF NOTEABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES
THROUGH MID WEEK. MOISTURE AND ASCENT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA POTENTIALLY MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE BY LATE MONDAY WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
MAKING HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST A CHALLENGE. WITH POST FRONTAL
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SIGNIFICANT MOMENTUM ALOFT...AND AT
LEAST SOME POTENTIAL TO MIX INTO THAT...HAVE INCREASED WINDS FOR LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THEREAFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE SURFACE FLOW WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY FOLLOWED BY A VIGOROUS TROUGH THAT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION BY FRIDAY. SURFACE RESPONSE SHOULD MAY BE FAIRLY DRAMATIC
WITH LEE TROUGH QUICKLY STRENGTHENING LATE ON CHRISTMAS DAY MORPHING
INTO A BROAD SURFACE LOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TYPICAL
DIFFERENCES IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO EXIST AT THAT RANGE WITH THE
12Z ECMWF BEING MUCH DEEPER AND STRONGER WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS.
SO THERE SEEMS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR A GRADIENT WIND EVENT BY AROUND
FRIDAY. SUBSEQUENTLY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BRING COLDER AIR
BY SATURDAY.

BOWERS

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/05






000
FXUS64 KAMA 192354
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
554 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR
OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD WESTWARD...WITH LIFR/IFR CEILINGS AND FOG LIKELY
AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO MVFR
LATE MORNING AND SCATTER OUT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 8-15KTS BY AFTERNOON.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH AREAS OF FOG ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING LASTING INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN/SHARPEN TOWARD MORNING ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
POSITION OF THE LEE TROUGH SOME AREAS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED CHANCES OF FOG EITHER FORMING OR PERSISTING INTO THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW GIVEN DRIER WESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH. CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TO ONCE AGAIN LINGER LONGER THAN EXPECTED TOMORROW AND
IMPLICATIONS THAT MAY HAVE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST DOWNWARD FOR TOMORROW TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
FOG MAY FORM ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TOMORROW
NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY MORE AMPLIFIED
NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG MID-UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST AND A DEEP TROUGH EVOLVES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. IN
BETWEEN...MEAN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE PLAINS.
THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE IN THIS PATTERN IS VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING
AROUND DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW POTENTIALLY FORCING PERIODIC BRIEF
RELATIVELY INSIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENTS IN OUR REGION AS WELL
AS MODEST COLD SURGES. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF THESE
PERTURBATIONS. FROM AN ENSEMBLE MEAN PERSPECTIVE INDIVIDUAL WAVES ARE
DAMPENED OUT EXCEPT FOR THE ONE THAT MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THIS
SEEMS TO BE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF NOTEABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES
THROUGH MID WEEK. MOISTURE AND ASCENT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA POTENTIALLY MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE BY LATE MONDAY WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
MAKING HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST A CHALLENGE. WITH POST FRONTAL
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SIGNIFICANT MOMENTUM ALOFT...AND AT
LEAST SOME POTENTIAL TO MIX INTO THAT...HAVE INCREASED WINDS FOR LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THEREAFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE SURFACE FLOW WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY FOLLOWED BY A VIGOROUS TROUGH THAT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION BY FRIDAY. SURFACE RESPONSE SHOULD MAY BE FAIRLY DRAMATIC
WITH LEE TROUGH QUICKLY STRENGTHENING LATE ON CHRISTMAS DAY MORPHING
INTO A BROAD SURFACE LOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TYPICAL
DIFFERENCES IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO EXIST AT THAT RANGE WITH THE
12Z ECMWF BEING MUCH DEEPER AND STRONGER WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS.
SO THERE SEEMS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR A GRADIENT WIND EVENT BY AROUND
FRIDAY. SUBSEQUENTLY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BRING COLDER AIR
BY SATURDAY.

BOWERS

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

18/05







000
FXUS64 KAMA 192354
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
554 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR
OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD WESTWARD...WITH LIFR/IFR CEILINGS AND FOG LIKELY
AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO MVFR
LATE MORNING AND SCATTER OUT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 8-15KTS BY AFTERNOON.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH AREAS OF FOG ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING LASTING INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN/SHARPEN TOWARD MORNING ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
POSITION OF THE LEE TROUGH SOME AREAS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED CHANCES OF FOG EITHER FORMING OR PERSISTING INTO THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW GIVEN DRIER WESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH. CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TO ONCE AGAIN LINGER LONGER THAN EXPECTED TOMORROW AND
IMPLICATIONS THAT MAY HAVE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST DOWNWARD FOR TOMORROW TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
FOG MAY FORM ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TOMORROW
NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY MORE AMPLIFIED
NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG MID-UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST AND A DEEP TROUGH EVOLVES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. IN
BETWEEN...MEAN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE PLAINS.
THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE IN THIS PATTERN IS VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING
AROUND DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW POTENTIALLY FORCING PERIODIC BRIEF
RELATIVELY INSIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENTS IN OUR REGION AS WELL
AS MODEST COLD SURGES. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF THESE
PERTURBATIONS. FROM AN ENSEMBLE MEAN PERSPECTIVE INDIVIDUAL WAVES ARE
DAMPENED OUT EXCEPT FOR THE ONE THAT MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THIS
SEEMS TO BE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF NOTEABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES
THROUGH MID WEEK. MOISTURE AND ASCENT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA POTENTIALLY MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE BY LATE MONDAY WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
MAKING HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST A CHALLENGE. WITH POST FRONTAL
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SIGNIFICANT MOMENTUM ALOFT...AND AT
LEAST SOME POTENTIAL TO MIX INTO THAT...HAVE INCREASED WINDS FOR LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THEREAFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE SURFACE FLOW WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY FOLLOWED BY A VIGOROUS TROUGH THAT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION BY FRIDAY. SURFACE RESPONSE SHOULD MAY BE FAIRLY DRAMATIC
WITH LEE TROUGH QUICKLY STRENGTHENING LATE ON CHRISTMAS DAY MORPHING
INTO A BROAD SURFACE LOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TYPICAL
DIFFERENCES IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO EXIST AT THAT RANGE WITH THE
12Z ECMWF BEING MUCH DEEPER AND STRONGER WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS.
SO THERE SEEMS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR A GRADIENT WIND EVENT BY AROUND
FRIDAY. SUBSEQUENTLY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BRING COLDER AIR
BY SATURDAY.

BOWERS

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

18/05








000
FXUS64 KAMA 192121
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
321 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH AREAS OF FOG ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING LASTING INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN/SHARPEN TOWARD MORNING ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
POSITION OF THE LEE TROUGH SOME AREAS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED CHANCES OF FOG EITHER FORMING OR PERSISTING INTO THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW GIVEN DRIER WESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH. CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TO ONCE AGAIN LINGER LONGER THAN EXPECTED TOMORROW AND
IMPLICATIONS THAT MAY HAVE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST DOWNWARD FOR TOMORROW TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
FOG MAY FORM ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TOMORROW
NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY MORE AMPLIFIED
NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG MID-UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST AND A DEEP TROUGH EVOLVES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. IN
BETWEEN...MEAN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE PLAINS.
THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE IN THIS PATTERN IS VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING
AROUND DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW POTENTIALLY FORCING PERIODIC BRIEF
RELATIVELY INSIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENTS IN OUR REGION AS WELL
AS MODEST COLD SURGES. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF THESE
PERTURBATIONS. FROM AN ENSEMBLE MEAN PERSPECTIVE INDIVIDUAL WAVES ARE
DAMPENED OUT EXCEPT FOR THE ONE THAT MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THIS
SEEMS TO BE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF NOTEABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES
THROUGH MID WEEK. MOISTURE AND ASCENT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA POTENTIALLY MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE BY LATE MONDAY WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
MAKING HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST A CHALLENGE. WITH POST FRONTAL
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SIGNIFICANT MOMENTUM ALOFT...AND AT
LEAST SOME POTENTIAL TO MIX INTO THAT...HAVE INCREASED WINDS FOR LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THEREAFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE SURFACE FLOW WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY FOLLOWED BY A VIGOROUS TROUGH THAT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION BY FRIDAY. SURFACE RESPONSE SHOULD MAY BE FAIRLY DRAMATIC
WITH LEE TROUGH QUICKLY STRENGTHENING LATE ON CHRISTMAS DAY MORPHING
INTO A BROAD SURFACE LOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TYPICAL
DIFFERENCES IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO EXIST AT THAT RANGE WITH THE
12Z ECMWF BEING MUCH DEEPER AND STRONGER WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS.
SO THERE SEEMS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR A GRADIENT WIND EVENT BY AROUND
FRIDAY. SUBSEQUENTLY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BRING COLDER AIR
BY SATURDAY.

BOWERS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1220 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE SLOWER TO ERODE THAN EXPECTED EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMP GRIDS AS WELL AS SKY COVER AND
WINDS SLIGHTLY. UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.

ANDRADE

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
PREVAILING THEME OF THIS FCST CYCLE. EXPECT EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG AT KDHT AND KGUY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
ANTICIPATED AT KAMA AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THE LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT
COMPLETELY ERODE. A RETURN OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IS FORESEEN FOR
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

ANDRADE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                30  51  29  58  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  27  52  30  55  32 /   0   0   5   0   5
BOISE CITY OK              24  52  24  58  34 /   0   0   0   0   5
BORGER TX                  32  50  31  58  36 /   0   0   0   0   5
BOYS RANCH TX              26  53  25  60  32 /   0   0   0   0   5
CANYON TX                  31  52  29  60  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               31  48  33  56  33 /   5   5   5   0   5
DALHART TX                 24  52  21  58  30 /   0   0   0   0   5
GUYMON OK                  25  54  24  58  34 /   0   0   0   0   5
HEREFORD TX                30  53  27  60  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                33  47  34  55  36 /   5   0   5   5   5
PAMPA TX                   32  47  31  52  33 /   5   0   5   0   5
SHAMROCK TX                37  46  35  52  35 /   5   5   5   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              37  45  36  53  36 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

02/17







000
FXUS64 KAMA 191820 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1220 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE SLOWER TO ERODE THAN EXPECTED EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMP GRIDS AS WELL AS SKY COVER AND
WINDS SLIGHTLY. UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
PREVAILING THEME OF THIS FCST CYCLE. EXPECT EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG AT KDHT AND KGUY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
ANTICIPATED AT KAMA AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THE LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT
COMPLETELY ERODE. A RETURN OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IS FORESEEN FOR
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

AVIATION...
A WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FOR THE START
OF THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. LOWEST CATEGORY GOES TO KAMA WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS AS EARLY MORNING SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE
TERMINAL. THE DEPARTURE HAS ALLOWED CEILINGS AND VISBI TO DROP
SLIGHTLY. KDHT FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH IFR CONDITIONS HOWEVER...KDHT IS
NEAR THE CLEARING LINE OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE
LOWER DECK TO EXPAND/LOWER. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A DROP TO
LIFR WITHIN THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF ISSUANCE FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT. KGUY IS THE BEST OFF WITH MVFR CONDITIONS BUT IS RIGHT
ON THE FENCE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
EARLY THIS MORNING CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF DROP TO IFR.

THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF ISSUANCE SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT EACH
TERMINAL TO MVFR/VFR. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...KAMA MAY STAY AT MVFR THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. KDHT AND KGUY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES TO REACH VFR
AROUND NOON.

OVERNIGHT WE COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CEILINGS/VISBI TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS GIVEN AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SITUATED ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

CORRECTED LAST PARAGRAPH

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS
MORNING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP.  LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DETECTED BY KAMA 88D AT THIS TIME EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT ALL PRECIPITATION
TO END ACROSS PANHANDLES THIS MORNING.  PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO AGAIN TODAY.

LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT
EARLIER CLEARING ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING MAX TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE LOWER- TO MID-50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.  SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS ON MONDAY BEHIND WEAK COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN...EXCEPT IN NORTHWEST WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED.  COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL AND NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ALLOW COOLER
AIR TO MOVE IN.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS MID-LEVEL
FLOW TRENDS TO ZONAL.  HAVE INCREASED MAXIMA AND WINDS ON THURSDAY
AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 191820 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1220 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE SLOWER TO ERODE THAN EXPECTED EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMP GRIDS AS WELL AS SKY COVER AND
WINDS SLIGHTLY. UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
PREVAILING THEME OF THIS FCST CYCLE. EXPECT EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG AT KDHT AND KGUY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
ANTICIPATED AT KAMA AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THE LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT
COMPLETELY ERODE. A RETURN OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IS FORESEEN FOR
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

AVIATION...
A WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FOR THE START
OF THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. LOWEST CATEGORY GOES TO KAMA WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS AS EARLY MORNING SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE
TERMINAL. THE DEPARTURE HAS ALLOWED CEILINGS AND VISBI TO DROP
SLIGHTLY. KDHT FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH IFR CONDITIONS HOWEVER...KDHT IS
NEAR THE CLEARING LINE OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE
LOWER DECK TO EXPAND/LOWER. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A DROP TO
LIFR WITHIN THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF ISSUANCE FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT. KGUY IS THE BEST OFF WITH MVFR CONDITIONS BUT IS RIGHT
ON THE FENCE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
EARLY THIS MORNING CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF DROP TO IFR.

THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF ISSUANCE SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT EACH
TERMINAL TO MVFR/VFR. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...KAMA MAY STAY AT MVFR THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. KDHT AND KGUY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES TO REACH VFR
AROUND NOON.

OVERNIGHT WE COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CEILINGS/VISBI TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS GIVEN AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SITUATED ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

CORRECTED LAST PARAGRAPH

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS
MORNING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP.  LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DETECTED BY KAMA 88D AT THIS TIME EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT ALL PRECIPITATION
TO END ACROSS PANHANDLES THIS MORNING.  PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO AGAIN TODAY.

LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT
EARLIER CLEARING ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING MAX TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE LOWER- TO MID-50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.  SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS ON MONDAY BEHIND WEAK COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN...EXCEPT IN NORTHWEST WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED.  COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL AND NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ALLOW COOLER
AIR TO MOVE IN.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS MID-LEVEL
FLOW TRENDS TO ZONAL.  HAVE INCREASED MAXIMA AND WINDS ON THURSDAY
AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 191753 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1153 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
PREVAILING THEME OF THIS FCST CYCLE. EXPECT EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG AT KDHT AND KGUY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
ANTICIPATED AT KAMA AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THE LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT
COMPLETELY ERODE. A RETURN OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IS FORESEEN FOR
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

ANDRADE

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

AVIATION...
A WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FOR THE START
OF THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. LOWEST CATEGORY GOES TO KAMA WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS AS EARLY MORNING SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE
TERMINAL. THE DEPARTURE HAS ALLOWED CEILINGS AND VISBI TO DROP
SLIGHTLY. KDHT FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH IFR CONDITIONS HOWEVER...KDHT IS
NEAR THE CLEARING LINE OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE
LOWER DECK TO EXPAND/LOWER. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A DROP TO
LIFR WITHIN THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF ISSUANCE FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT. KGUY IS THE BEST OFF WITH MVFR CONDITIONS BUT IS RIGHT
ON THE FENCE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
EARLY THIS MORNING CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF DROP TO IFR.

THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF ISSUANCE SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT EACH
TERMINAL TO MVFR/VFR. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...KAMA MAY STAY AT MVFR THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. KDHT AND KGUY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES TO REACH VFR
AROUND NOON.

OVERNIGHT WE COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CEILINGS/VISBI TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS GIVEN AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SITUATED ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

CORRECTED LAST PARAGRAPH

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS
MORNING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP.  LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DETECTED BY KAMA 88D AT THIS TIME EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT ALL PRECIPITATION
TO END ACROSS PANHANDLES THIS MORNING.  PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO AGAIN TODAY.

LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT
EARLIER CLEARING ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING MAX TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE LOWER- TO MID-50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.  SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS ON MONDAY BEHIND WEAK COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN...EXCEPT IN NORTHWEST WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED.  COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL AND NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ALLOW COOLER
AIR TO MOVE IN.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS MID-LEVEL
FLOW TRENDS TO ZONAL.  HAVE INCREASED MAXIMA AND WINDS ON THURSDAY
AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 191753 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1153 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
PREVAILING THEME OF THIS FCST CYCLE. EXPECT EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG AT KDHT AND KGUY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
ANTICIPATED AT KAMA AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THE LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT
COMPLETELY ERODE. A RETURN OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IS FORESEEN FOR
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

ANDRADE

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

AVIATION...
A WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FOR THE START
OF THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. LOWEST CATEGORY GOES TO KAMA WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS AS EARLY MORNING SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE
TERMINAL. THE DEPARTURE HAS ALLOWED CEILINGS AND VISBI TO DROP
SLIGHTLY. KDHT FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH IFR CONDITIONS HOWEVER...KDHT IS
NEAR THE CLEARING LINE OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE
LOWER DECK TO EXPAND/LOWER. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A DROP TO
LIFR WITHIN THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF ISSUANCE FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT. KGUY IS THE BEST OFF WITH MVFR CONDITIONS BUT IS RIGHT
ON THE FENCE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
EARLY THIS MORNING CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF DROP TO IFR.

THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF ISSUANCE SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT EACH
TERMINAL TO MVFR/VFR. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...KAMA MAY STAY AT MVFR THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. KDHT AND KGUY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES TO REACH VFR
AROUND NOON.

OVERNIGHT WE COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CEILINGS/VISBI TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS GIVEN AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SITUATED ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

CORRECTED LAST PARAGRAPH

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS
MORNING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP.  LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DETECTED BY KAMA 88D AT THIS TIME EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT ALL PRECIPITATION
TO END ACROSS PANHANDLES THIS MORNING.  PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO AGAIN TODAY.

LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT
EARLIER CLEARING ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING MAX TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE LOWER- TO MID-50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.  SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS ON MONDAY BEHIND WEAK COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN...EXCEPT IN NORTHWEST WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED.  COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL AND NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ALLOW COOLER
AIR TO MOVE IN.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS MID-LEVEL
FLOW TRENDS TO ZONAL.  HAVE INCREASED MAXIMA AND WINDS ON THURSDAY
AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 191345 CCA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
742 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

CORRECTED FINAL PARAGRAPH OF 412 AM DISCUSSION

.AVIATION...
A WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FOR THE START
OF THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. LOWEST CATEGORY GOES TO KAMA WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS AS EARLY MORNING SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE
TERMINAL. THE DEPARTURE HAS ALLOWED CEILINGS AND VISBI TO DROP
SLIGHTLY. KDHT FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH IFR CONDITIONS HOWEVER...KDHT IS
NEAR THE CLEARING LINE OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE
LOWER DECK TO EXPAND/LOWER. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A DROP TO
LIFR WITHIN THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF ISSUANCE FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT. KGUY IS THE BEST OFF WITH MVFR CONDITIONS BUT IS RIGHT
ON THE FENCE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
EARLY THIS MORNING CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF DROP TO IFR.

THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF ISSUANCE SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT EACH
TERMINAL TO MVFR/VFR. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...KAMA MAY STAY AT MVFR THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. KDHT AND KGUY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES TO REACH VFR
AROUND NOON.

OVERNIGHT WE COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CEILINGS/VISBI TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS GIVEN AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SITUATED ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

CORRECTED LAST PARAGRAPH

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS
MORNING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP.  LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DETECTED BY KAMA 88D AT THIS TIME EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT ALL PRECIPITATION
TO END ACROSS PANHANDLES THIS MORNING.  PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO AGAIN TODAY.

LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT
EARLIER CLEARING ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING MAX TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE LOWER- TO MID-50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.  SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS ON MONDAY BEHIND WEAK COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN...EXCEPT IN NORTHWEST WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED.  COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL AND NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ALLOW COOLER
AIR TO MOVE IN.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS MID-LEVEL
FLOW TRENDS TO ZONAL.  HAVE INCREASED MAXIMA AND WINDS ON THURSDAY
AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/03








000
FXUS64 KAMA 191345 CCA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
742 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

CORRECTED FINAL PARAGRAPH OF 412 AM DISCUSSION

.AVIATION...
A WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FOR THE START
OF THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. LOWEST CATEGORY GOES TO KAMA WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS AS EARLY MORNING SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE
TERMINAL. THE DEPARTURE HAS ALLOWED CEILINGS AND VISBI TO DROP
SLIGHTLY. KDHT FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH IFR CONDITIONS HOWEVER...KDHT IS
NEAR THE CLEARING LINE OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE
LOWER DECK TO EXPAND/LOWER. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A DROP TO
LIFR WITHIN THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF ISSUANCE FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT. KGUY IS THE BEST OFF WITH MVFR CONDITIONS BUT IS RIGHT
ON THE FENCE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
EARLY THIS MORNING CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF DROP TO IFR.

THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF ISSUANCE SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT EACH
TERMINAL TO MVFR/VFR. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...KAMA MAY STAY AT MVFR THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. KDHT AND KGUY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES TO REACH VFR
AROUND NOON.

OVERNIGHT WE COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CEILINGS/VISBI TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS GIVEN AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SITUATED ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

CORRECTED LAST PARAGRAPH

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS
MORNING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP.  LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DETECTED BY KAMA 88D AT THIS TIME EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT ALL PRECIPITATION
TO END ACROSS PANHANDLES THIS MORNING.  PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO AGAIN TODAY.

LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT
EARLIER CLEARING ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING MAX TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE LOWER- TO MID-50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.  SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS ON MONDAY BEHIND WEAK COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN...EXCEPT IN NORTHWEST WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED.  COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL AND NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ALLOW COOLER
AIR TO MOVE IN.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS MID-LEVEL
FLOW TRENDS TO ZONAL.  HAVE INCREASED MAXIMA AND WINDS ON THURSDAY
AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/03









000
FXUS64 KAMA 191101
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
501 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
A WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FOR THE START
OF THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. LOWEST CATEGORY GOES TO KAMA WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS AS EARLY MORNING SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE
TERMINAL. THE DEPARTURE HAS ALLOWED CEILINGS AND VISBI TO DROP
SLIGHTLY. KDHT FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH IFR CONDITIONS HOWEVER...KDHT IS
NEAR THE CLEARING LINE OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE
LOWER DECK TO EXPAND/LOWER. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A DROP TO
LIFR WITHIN THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF ISSUANCE FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT. KGUY IS THE BEST OFF WITH MVFR CONDITIONS BUT IS RIGHT
ON THE FENCE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
EARLY THIS MORNING CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF DROP TO IFR.

THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF ISSUANCE SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT EACH
TERMINAL TO MVFR/VFR. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...KAMA MAY STAY AT MVFR THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. KDHT AND KGUY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES TO REACH VFR
AROUND NOON.

OVERNIGHT WE COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CEILINGS/VISBI TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS GIVEN AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SITUATED ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS
MORNING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP.  LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DETECTED BY KAMA 88D AT THIS TIME EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT ALL PRECIPITATION
TO END ACROSS PANHANDLES THIS MORNING.  PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO AGAIN TODAY.

LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT
EARLIER CLEARING ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING MAX TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE LOWER- TO MID-50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.  SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS ON MONDAY BEHIND WEAK COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN...EXCEPT IN NORTHWEST WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED.  COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL AND NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ALLOW COOLER
AIR TO MOVE IN.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS MID-LEVEL
FLOW TRENDS TO ZONAL.  HAVE INCREASED MAXIMA AND WINDS ON THURSDAY
AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/03







000
FXUS64 KAMA 191101
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
501 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
A WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FOR THE START
OF THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. LOWEST CATEGORY GOES TO KAMA WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS AS EARLY MORNING SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE
TERMINAL. THE DEPARTURE HAS ALLOWED CEILINGS AND VISBI TO DROP
SLIGHTLY. KDHT FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH IFR CONDITIONS HOWEVER...KDHT IS
NEAR THE CLEARING LINE OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE
LOWER DECK TO EXPAND/LOWER. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A DROP TO
LIFR WITHIN THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF ISSUANCE FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT. KGUY IS THE BEST OFF WITH MVFR CONDITIONS BUT IS RIGHT
ON THE FENCE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
EARLY THIS MORNING CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF DROP TO IFR.

THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF ISSUANCE SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT EACH
TERMINAL TO MVFR/VFR. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...KAMA MAY STAY AT MVFR THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. KDHT AND KGUY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES TO REACH VFR
AROUND NOON.

OVERNIGHT WE COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CEILINGS/VISBI TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS GIVEN AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SITUATED ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS
MORNING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP.  LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DETECTED BY KAMA 88D AT THIS TIME EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT ALL PRECIPITATION
TO END ACROSS PANHANDLES THIS MORNING.  PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO AGAIN TODAY.

LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT
EARLIER CLEARING ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING MAX TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE LOWER- TO MID-50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.  SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS ON MONDAY BEHIND WEAK COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN...EXCEPT IN NORTHWEST WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED.  COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL AND NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ALLOW COOLER
AIR TO MOVE IN.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS MID-LEVEL
FLOW TRENDS TO ZONAL.  HAVE INCREASED MAXIMA AND WINDS ON THURSDAY
AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/03






000
FXUS64 KAMA 191013
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
412 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS
MORNING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP.  LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DETECTED BY KAMA 88D AT THIS TIME EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT ALL PRECIPITATION
TO END ACROSS PANHANDLES THIS MORNING.  PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO AGAIN TODAY.

LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT
EARLIER CLEARING ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING MAX TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE LOWER- TO MID-50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.  SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS ON MONDAY BEHIND WEAK COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN...EXCEPT IN NORTHWEST WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED.  COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL AND NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ALLOW COOLER
AIR TO MOVE IN.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS MID-LEVEL
FLOW TRENDS TO ZONAL.  HAVE INCREASED MAXIMA AND WINDS ON THURSDAY
AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED.

COCKRELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                43  30  54  30  57 /  20   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  45  29  52  31  55 /  20   0   0   5   5
BOISE CITY OK              46  25  52  25  56 /   5   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  44  32  57  34  58 /  20   0   0   0   5
BOYS RANCH TX              43  28  55  28  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  44  30  56  29  59 /  20   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               42  34  52  33  55 /  30   5   0   5   5
DALHART TX                 43  24  53  23  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  46  27  54  26  59 /  10   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                46  28  56  28  59 /  20   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                42  31  51  32  54 /  20   0   0   5   5
PAMPA TX                   41  33  49  31  53 /  30   0   0   0   5
SHAMROCK TX                44  36  51  35  53 /  30   5   0   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              44  36  51  37  53 /  40   5   0   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/03






000
FXUS64 KAMA 191013
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
412 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS
MORNING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP.  LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DETECTED BY KAMA 88D AT THIS TIME EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT ALL PRECIPITATION
TO END ACROSS PANHANDLES THIS MORNING.  PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO AGAIN TODAY.

LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT
EARLIER CLEARING ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING MAX TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE LOWER- TO MID-50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.  SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS ON MONDAY BEHIND WEAK COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN...EXCEPT IN NORTHWEST WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED.  COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL AND NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ALLOW COOLER
AIR TO MOVE IN.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS MID-LEVEL
FLOW TRENDS TO ZONAL.  HAVE INCREASED MAXIMA AND WINDS ON THURSDAY
AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED.

COCKRELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                43  30  54  30  57 /  20   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  45  29  52  31  55 /  20   0   0   5   5
BOISE CITY OK              46  25  52  25  56 /   5   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  44  32  57  34  58 /  20   0   0   0   5
BOYS RANCH TX              43  28  55  28  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  44  30  56  29  59 /  20   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               42  34  52  33  55 /  30   5   0   5   5
DALHART TX                 43  24  53  23  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  46  27  54  26  59 /  10   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                46  28  56  28  59 /  20   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                42  31  51  32  54 /  20   0   0   5   5
PAMPA TX                   41  33  49  31  53 /  30   0   0   0   5
SHAMROCK TX                44  36  51  35  53 /  30   5   0   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              44  36  51  37  53 /  40   5   0   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/03





000
FXUS64 KAMA 191013
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
412 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS
MORNING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP.  LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DETECTED BY KAMA 88D AT THIS TIME EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT ALL PRECIPITATION
TO END ACROSS PANHANDLES THIS MORNING.  PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO AGAIN TODAY.

LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT
EARLIER CLEARING ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING MAX TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE LOWER- TO MID-50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.  SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS ON MONDAY BEHIND WEAK COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN...EXCEPT IN NORTHWEST WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED.  COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL AND NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ALLOW COOLER
AIR TO MOVE IN.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS MID-LEVEL
FLOW TRENDS TO ZONAL.  HAVE INCREASED MAXIMA AND WINDS ON THURSDAY
AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED.

COCKRELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                43  30  54  30  57 /  20   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  45  29  52  31  55 /  20   0   0   5   5
BOISE CITY OK              46  25  52  25  56 /   5   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  44  32  57  34  58 /  20   0   0   0   5
BOYS RANCH TX              43  28  55  28  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  44  30  56  29  59 /  20   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               42  34  52  33  55 /  30   5   0   5   5
DALHART TX                 43  24  53  23  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  46  27  54  26  59 /  10   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                46  28  56  28  59 /  20   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                42  31  51  32  54 /  20   0   0   5   5
PAMPA TX                   41  33  49  31  53 /  30   0   0   0   5
SHAMROCK TX                44  36  51  35  53 /  30   5   0   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              44  36  51  37  53 /  40   5   0   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/03






000
FXUS64 KAMA 191013
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
412 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS
MORNING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP.  LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DETECTED BY KAMA 88D AT THIS TIME EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT ALL PRECIPITATION
TO END ACROSS PANHANDLES THIS MORNING.  PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO AGAIN TODAY.

LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT
EARLIER CLEARING ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING MAX TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE LOWER- TO MID-50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.  SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS ON MONDAY BEHIND WEAK COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN...EXCEPT IN NORTHWEST WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED.  COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL AND NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ALLOW COOLER
AIR TO MOVE IN.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS MID-LEVEL
FLOW TRENDS TO ZONAL.  HAVE INCREASED MAXIMA AND WINDS ON THURSDAY
AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED.

COCKRELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                43  30  54  30  57 /  20   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  45  29  52  31  55 /  20   0   0   5   5
BOISE CITY OK              46  25  52  25  56 /   5   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  44  32  57  34  58 /  20   0   0   0   5
BOYS RANCH TX              43  28  55  28  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  44  30  56  29  59 /  20   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               42  34  52  33  55 /  30   5   0   5   5
DALHART TX                 43  24  53  23  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  46  27  54  26  59 /  10   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                46  28  56  28  59 /  20   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                42  31  51  32  54 /  20   0   0   5   5
PAMPA TX                   41  33  49  31  53 /  30   0   0   0   5
SHAMROCK TX                44  36  51  35  53 /  30   5   0   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              44  36  51  37  53 /  40   5   0   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/03





000
FXUS64 KAMA 190504
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1104 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND
TEXAS PANHANDLES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER....FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP. HAVE KEPT MENTION
OF IFR FOG IN TAF SITES THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS WANING THAT VISIBILITIES
WILL DROP THAT LOW. IFR TO MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY SCATTERING OUT MID-LATE DAY. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD IN PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME...AND SHOULD
MAINLY BE CONFINED EAST OF THE TAF SITES TODAY.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

PRIMARY WEATHER IMPACTS DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL BE IN THE
SHORT TERM WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT AND POTENTIAL FOR FOG
ONCE AGAIN. MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST WAS TO TRY AND BE MORE
DETERMINISTIC WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH THAT
REMAINS A CHALLENGE GIVEN MARGINAL THERMAL PROFILES FOR FROZEN
PRECIPITATION IN MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS. INITIAL CONCERNS ARE FOG
POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY AND
STRENGTHENS. MOISTURE OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS WILL ADVECT WESTWARD AND UPSLOPE. HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG
IN THE GRIDS. LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.

WV LOOP AND 500 MB RAP ANALYSIS CLEARLY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER EASTERN ARIZONA MOVING EASTWARD. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE AS IT MOVES TOWARD
WEST TEXAS TONIGHT AND CROSSES THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING. THE
PERIOD OF BEST OMEGA/SATURATION IN THE DEDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL BE
AFTER ABOUT 03Z IN THE WEST SPREADING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH ABOUT 15Z IN THE EAST. JUST BELOW THE DGZ IS A LAYER OF DRY
AIR THAT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE THUS DELAYING THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT IN THE WEST/CENTRAL AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN THE EAST. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR CONVEYING SENSIBLE
WEATHER IN THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE. AT LEAST
SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREES FAIRLY WELL. THE DEPTH OF THE ABOVE
FREEZING WET BULB TEMPERATURES IS SUFFICIENT FOR ALL RAIN ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HAVE TRENDED
PRECIPITATION TYPE TO MORE RAIN AS A RESULT. INCREASED QPF SLIGHTLY
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUES
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. VERY POWERFUL PACIFIC JET NOSES INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY MONDAY EAST OF A SIGNIFICANT MEAN RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A VERY STRONG TROUGH HAS BEEN SHOWN TO DEVELOP
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SHOULD HAPPEN BY AROUND
CHRISTMAS EVE OR CHRISTMAS DAY BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STRUGGLE WITH
HOW IT EVOLVES EARLY/MID WEEK ONCE PACIFIC JET MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS. NEW 12Z EMCWF IS QUICKER WITH DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW
WHILE THE GFS IS MORE PRONOUNCED WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
TRAVERSING THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH. THE GFS BECOMES DEEPER BY
WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT RISES ON ITS WEST SIDE OVER
THE PLAINS. EXACT IMPLICATIONS FOR US ARE UNCLEAR. WILL NEED TO
WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR A DOWNSLOPING WARMING/WIND EVENT ON MONDAY.
GFS/MEX DEPICT THIS NOW. ECMWF IS MORE EXPANSIVE WITH HEIGHT FALLS
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS GIVEN ITS MORE CONSOLIDATED/SPRAWLING
SOLUTION WITH LESS DISTINCT SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN. GFS
SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING INTO AN AREA OF STRONG FLOW ALOFT WHICH
RAISES SOME CONCERN OF NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS IF THIS SOLUTION
VERIFIES. OTHERWISE DID NOT DEVIATE FROM MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS. ANY
PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED SHOULD BE INSIGNIFICANT...AND
DIFFICULT TO TIME GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES.

BRB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...THE MAIN WEATHER ELEMENTS FOR THIS FCST CYCLE WILL
BE LOW CLOUDS AND EPISODES OF FOG. FOG IS SLOWLY ERODING AT THE TAF
SITES AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR CIGS
WILL GRADUALY AND TEMPORARILY LIFT INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AS WELL.
EXPECT THE RETURN OF IFR CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
GRAZE THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...AND MAY BRING SOME
SPRINKLES...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...FLURRIES...OR VERY LIGHT SNOW.
HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS NOT VERY HIGH...SO HAVE
OPTED TO OMIT FROM THE TERMINAL FCSTS AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

18/09






000
FXUS64 KAMA 190504
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1104 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND
TEXAS PANHANDLES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER....FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP. HAVE KEPT MENTION
OF IFR FOG IN TAF SITES THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS WANING THAT VISIBILITIES
WILL DROP THAT LOW. IFR TO MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY SCATTERING OUT MID-LATE DAY. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD IN PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME...AND SHOULD
MAINLY BE CONFINED EAST OF THE TAF SITES TODAY.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

PRIMARY WEATHER IMPACTS DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL BE IN THE
SHORT TERM WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT AND POTENTIAL FOR FOG
ONCE AGAIN. MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST WAS TO TRY AND BE MORE
DETERMINISTIC WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH THAT
REMAINS A CHALLENGE GIVEN MARGINAL THERMAL PROFILES FOR FROZEN
PRECIPITATION IN MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS. INITIAL CONCERNS ARE FOG
POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY AND
STRENGTHENS. MOISTURE OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS WILL ADVECT WESTWARD AND UPSLOPE. HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG
IN THE GRIDS. LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.

WV LOOP AND 500 MB RAP ANALYSIS CLEARLY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER EASTERN ARIZONA MOVING EASTWARD. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE AS IT MOVES TOWARD
WEST TEXAS TONIGHT AND CROSSES THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING. THE
PERIOD OF BEST OMEGA/SATURATION IN THE DEDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL BE
AFTER ABOUT 03Z IN THE WEST SPREADING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH ABOUT 15Z IN THE EAST. JUST BELOW THE DGZ IS A LAYER OF DRY
AIR THAT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE THUS DELAYING THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT IN THE WEST/CENTRAL AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN THE EAST. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR CONVEYING SENSIBLE
WEATHER IN THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE. AT LEAST
SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREES FAIRLY WELL. THE DEPTH OF THE ABOVE
FREEZING WET BULB TEMPERATURES IS SUFFICIENT FOR ALL RAIN ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HAVE TRENDED
PRECIPITATION TYPE TO MORE RAIN AS A RESULT. INCREASED QPF SLIGHTLY
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUES
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. VERY POWERFUL PACIFIC JET NOSES INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY MONDAY EAST OF A SIGNIFICANT MEAN RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A VERY STRONG TROUGH HAS BEEN SHOWN TO DEVELOP
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SHOULD HAPPEN BY AROUND
CHRISTMAS EVE OR CHRISTMAS DAY BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STRUGGLE WITH
HOW IT EVOLVES EARLY/MID WEEK ONCE PACIFIC JET MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS. NEW 12Z EMCWF IS QUICKER WITH DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW
WHILE THE GFS IS MORE PRONOUNCED WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
TRAVERSING THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH. THE GFS BECOMES DEEPER BY
WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT RISES ON ITS WEST SIDE OVER
THE PLAINS. EXACT IMPLICATIONS FOR US ARE UNCLEAR. WILL NEED TO
WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR A DOWNSLOPING WARMING/WIND EVENT ON MONDAY.
GFS/MEX DEPICT THIS NOW. ECMWF IS MORE EXPANSIVE WITH HEIGHT FALLS
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS GIVEN ITS MORE CONSOLIDATED/SPRAWLING
SOLUTION WITH LESS DISTINCT SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN. GFS
SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING INTO AN AREA OF STRONG FLOW ALOFT WHICH
RAISES SOME CONCERN OF NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS IF THIS SOLUTION
VERIFIES. OTHERWISE DID NOT DEVIATE FROM MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS. ANY
PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED SHOULD BE INSIGNIFICANT...AND
DIFFICULT TO TIME GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES.

BRB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...THE MAIN WEATHER ELEMENTS FOR THIS FCST CYCLE WILL
BE LOW CLOUDS AND EPISODES OF FOG. FOG IS SLOWLY ERODING AT THE TAF
SITES AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR CIGS
WILL GRADUALY AND TEMPORARILY LIFT INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AS WELL.
EXPECT THE RETURN OF IFR CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
GRAZE THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...AND MAY BRING SOME
SPRINKLES...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...FLURRIES...OR VERY LIGHT SNOW.
HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS NOT VERY HIGH...SO HAVE
OPTED TO OMIT FROM THE TERMINAL FCSTS AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

18/09







000
FXUS64 KAMA 182048
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
248 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

PRIMARY WEATHER IMPACTS DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL BE IN THE
SHORT TERM WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT AND POTENTIAL FOR FOG
ONCE AGAIN. MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST WAS TO TRY AND BE MORE
DETERMINISTIC WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH THAT
REMAINS A CHALLENGE GIVEN MARGINAL THERMAL PROFILES FOR FROZEN
PRECIPITATION IN MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS. INITIAL CONCERNS ARE FOG
POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY AND
STRENGTHENS. MOISTURE OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS WILL ADVECT WESTWARD AND UPSLOPE. HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG
IN THE GRIDS. LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.

WV LOOP AND 500 MB RAP ANALYSIS CLEARLY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER EASTERN ARIZONA MOVING EASTWARD. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE AS IT MOVES TOWARD
WEST TEXAS TONIGHT AND CROSSES THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING. THE
PERIOD OF BEST OMEGA/SATURATION IN THE DEDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL BE
AFTER ABOUT 03Z IN THE WEST SPREADING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH ABOUT 15Z IN THE EAST. JUST BELOW THE DGZ IS A LAYER OF DRY
AIR THAT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE THUS DELAYING THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT IN THE WEST/CENTRAL AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN THE EAST. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR CONVEYING SENSIBLE
WEATHER IN THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE. AT LEAST
SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREES FAIRLY WELL. THE DEPTH OF THE ABOVE
FREEZING WET BULB TEMPERATURES IS SUFFICIENT FOR ALL RAIN ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HAVE TRENDED
PRECIPITATION TYPE TO MORE RAIN AS A RESULT. INCREASED QPF SLIGHTLY
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUES
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. VERY POWERFUL PACIFIC JET NOSES INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY MONDAY EAST OF A SIGNIFICANT MEAN RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A VERY STRONG TROUGH HAS BEEN SHOWN TO DEVELOP
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SHOULD HAPPEN BY AROUND
CHRISTMAS EVE OR CHRISTMAS DAY BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STRUGGLE WITH
HOW IT EVOLVES EARLY/MID WEEK ONCE PACIFIC JET MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS. NEW 12Z EMCWF IS QUICKER WITH DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW
WHILE THE GFS IS MORE PRONOUNCED WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
TRAVERSING THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH. THE GFS BECOMES DEEPER BY
WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT RISES ON ITS WEST SIDE OVER
THE PLAINS. EXACT IMPLICATIONS FOR US ARE UNCLEAR. WILL NEED TO
WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR A DOWNSLOPING WARMING/WIND EVENT ON MONDAY.
GFS/MEX DEPICT THIS NOW. ECMWF IS MORE EXPANSIVE WITH HEIGHT FALLS
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS GIVEN ITS MORE CONSOLIDATED/SPRAWLING
SOLUTION WITH LESS DISTINCT SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN. GFS
SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING INTO AN AREA OF STRONG FLOW ALOFT WHICH
RAISES SOME CONCERN OF NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS IF THIS SOLUTION
VERIFIES. OTHERWISE DID NOT DEVIATE FROM MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS. ANY
PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED SHOULD BE INSIGNIFICANT...AND
DIFFICULT TO TIME GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES.

BRB

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...THE MAIN WEATHER ELEMENTS FOR THIS FCST CYCLE WILL
BE LOW CLOUDS AND EPISODES OF FOG. FOG IS SLOWLY ERODING AT THE TAF
SITES AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR CIGS
WILL GRADUALY AND TEMPORARILY LIFT INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AS WELL.
EXPECT THE RETURN OF IFR CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
GRAZE THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...AND MAY BRING SOME
SPRINKLES...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...FLURRIES...OR VERY LIGHT SNOW.
HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS NOT VERY HIGH...SO HAVE
OPTED TO OMIT FROM THE TERMINAL FCSTS AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                33  43  29  55  28 /  20  20   5   0   5
BEAVER OK                  29  45  28  52  30 /  10  20   5   0   5
BOISE CITY OK              26  49  24  53  22 /  10   5   5   0   0
BORGER TX                  33  44  31  53  30 /  20  20   5   0   5
BOYS RANCH TX              31  49  27  56  25 /  20  10   5   0   0
CANYON TX                  33  45  29  57  27 /  30  20   5   0   5
CLARENDON TX               35  41  33  54  34 /  30  30   5   0   5
DALHART TX                 27  49  23  53  21 /  20  10   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  29  48  26  54  26 /  10  10   5   0   5
HEREFORD TX                32  51  27  58  26 /  30  20   5   0   5
LIPSCOMB TX                32  43  30  51  35 /  10  20   5   0   5
PAMPA TX                   32  41  32  50  32 /  20  30   5   0   5
SHAMROCK TX                35  41  35  49  36 /  20  30   5   0  10
WELLINGTON TX              37  42  35  49  38 /  20  40   5   5  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

02/17







000
FXUS64 KAMA 182048
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
248 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

PRIMARY WEATHER IMPACTS DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL BE IN THE
SHORT TERM WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT AND POTENTIAL FOR FOG
ONCE AGAIN. MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST WAS TO TRY AND BE MORE
DETERMINISTIC WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH THAT
REMAINS A CHALLENGE GIVEN MARGINAL THERMAL PROFILES FOR FROZEN
PRECIPITATION IN MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS. INITIAL CONCERNS ARE FOG
POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY AND
STRENGTHENS. MOISTURE OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS WILL ADVECT WESTWARD AND UPSLOPE. HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG
IN THE GRIDS. LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.

WV LOOP AND 500 MB RAP ANALYSIS CLEARLY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER EASTERN ARIZONA MOVING EASTWARD. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE AS IT MOVES TOWARD
WEST TEXAS TONIGHT AND CROSSES THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING. THE
PERIOD OF BEST OMEGA/SATURATION IN THE DEDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL BE
AFTER ABOUT 03Z IN THE WEST SPREADING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH ABOUT 15Z IN THE EAST. JUST BELOW THE DGZ IS A LAYER OF DRY
AIR THAT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE THUS DELAYING THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT IN THE WEST/CENTRAL AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN THE EAST. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR CONVEYING SENSIBLE
WEATHER IN THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE. AT LEAST
SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREES FAIRLY WELL. THE DEPTH OF THE ABOVE
FREEZING WET BULB TEMPERATURES IS SUFFICIENT FOR ALL RAIN ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HAVE TRENDED
PRECIPITATION TYPE TO MORE RAIN AS A RESULT. INCREASED QPF SLIGHTLY
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUES
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. VERY POWERFUL PACIFIC JET NOSES INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY MONDAY EAST OF A SIGNIFICANT MEAN RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A VERY STRONG TROUGH HAS BEEN SHOWN TO DEVELOP
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SHOULD HAPPEN BY AROUND
CHRISTMAS EVE OR CHRISTMAS DAY BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STRUGGLE WITH
HOW IT EVOLVES EARLY/MID WEEK ONCE PACIFIC JET MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS. NEW 12Z EMCWF IS QUICKER WITH DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW
WHILE THE GFS IS MORE PRONOUNCED WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
TRAVERSING THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH. THE GFS BECOMES DEEPER BY
WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT RISES ON ITS WEST SIDE OVER
THE PLAINS. EXACT IMPLICATIONS FOR US ARE UNCLEAR. WILL NEED TO
WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR A DOWNSLOPING WARMING/WIND EVENT ON MONDAY.
GFS/MEX DEPICT THIS NOW. ECMWF IS MORE EXPANSIVE WITH HEIGHT FALLS
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS GIVEN ITS MORE CONSOLIDATED/SPRAWLING
SOLUTION WITH LESS DISTINCT SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN. GFS
SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING INTO AN AREA OF STRONG FLOW ALOFT WHICH
RAISES SOME CONCERN OF NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS IF THIS SOLUTION
VERIFIES. OTHERWISE DID NOT DEVIATE FROM MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS. ANY
PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED SHOULD BE INSIGNIFICANT...AND
DIFFICULT TO TIME GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES.

BRB

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...THE MAIN WEATHER ELEMENTS FOR THIS FCST CYCLE WILL
BE LOW CLOUDS AND EPISODES OF FOG. FOG IS SLOWLY ERODING AT THE TAF
SITES AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR CIGS
WILL GRADUALY AND TEMPORARILY LIFT INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AS WELL.
EXPECT THE RETURN OF IFR CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
GRAZE THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...AND MAY BRING SOME
SPRINKLES...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...FLURRIES...OR VERY LIGHT SNOW.
HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS NOT VERY HIGH...SO HAVE
OPTED TO OMIT FROM THE TERMINAL FCSTS AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                33  43  29  55  28 /  20  20   5   0   5
BEAVER OK                  29  45  28  52  30 /  10  20   5   0   5
BOISE CITY OK              26  49  24  53  22 /  10   5   5   0   0
BORGER TX                  33  44  31  53  30 /  20  20   5   0   5
BOYS RANCH TX              31  49  27  56  25 /  20  10   5   0   0
CANYON TX                  33  45  29  57  27 /  30  20   5   0   5
CLARENDON TX               35  41  33  54  34 /  30  30   5   0   5
DALHART TX                 27  49  23  53  21 /  20  10   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  29  48  26  54  26 /  10  10   5   0   5
HEREFORD TX                32  51  27  58  26 /  30  20   5   0   5
LIPSCOMB TX                32  43  30  51  35 /  10  20   5   0   5
PAMPA TX                   32  41  32  50  32 /  20  30   5   0   5
SHAMROCK TX                35  41  35  49  36 /  20  30   5   0  10
WELLINGTON TX              37  42  35  49  38 /  20  40   5   5  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

02/17






000
FXUS64 KAMA 181817 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1217 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR
LATEST TRENDS.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...THE MAIN WEATHER ELEMENTS FOR THIS FCST CYCLE WILL
BE LOW CLOUDS AND EPISODES OF FOG. FOG IS SLOWLY ERODING AT THE TAF
SITES AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR CIGS
WILL GRADUALY AND TEMPORARILY LIFT INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AS WELL.
EXPECT THE RETURN OF IFR CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
GRAZE THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...AND MAY BRING SOME
SPRINKLES...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...FLURRIES...OR VERY LIGHT SNOW.
HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS NOT VERY HIGH...SO HAVE
OPTED TO OMIT FROM THE TERMINAL FCSTS AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG STARTING THE TAF CYCLE WILL LEAD TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON CATEGORIES. HOWEVER A DRIER AIRMASS SLIDING ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES HAS LED TO IMPROVEMENTS IN BOTH VISBI AND CEILING HEIGHTS
OVER THE PAST HOUR. THIS IMPROVING TREND SHOULD HOLD OUT THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING HOURS ALLOWING EACH TERMINAL TO IMPROVE TO MVFR. WITH
THAT BEING SAID...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF FOG
REDEVELOPING AS THE SUNRISES. MIDDAY COULD SEE KDHT AND MAYBE KGUY
REACHING VFR WITH KAMA REMAINING MVFR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
TONIGHT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF
PREVAILING CONDITIONS FOR KAMA FOR THIS ISSUANCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO DROP FLIGHT CATEGORIES AT THE
TERMINALS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT BROUGHT US SOME LIGHT RAIN TO MAINLY
AND NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WAS MOVING NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THIS
SHORT WAVE THIS MORNING...BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH.

WINDS WILL TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
NEXT FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS NEXT SHORT
WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO
MAINLY THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. IT APPEARS
AGAIN THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER OUR AREA TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW. ANY AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH NO SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT
GIVEN THE LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW.

THE UPPER FLOW WILL THEN TRANSITION FROM A SPLIT FLOW TO MORE OF
A RIDGE TOUGH PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PANHANDLES WILL
COME UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW...WHICH WILL KEEP THE AREA MAINLY
DRY. THERE MAY BE SOME RIPPLES IN THIS FLOW WHICH COULD BRING US
AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW...BUT THE CHANCES ARE TOO
REMOTE TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THIS WEEKEND TO ABOVE NORMAL
WITH MONDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY. THEN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BACK TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 181817 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1217 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR
LATEST TRENDS.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...THE MAIN WEATHER ELEMENTS FOR THIS FCST CYCLE WILL
BE LOW CLOUDS AND EPISODES OF FOG. FOG IS SLOWLY ERODING AT THE TAF
SITES AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR CIGS
WILL GRADUALY AND TEMPORARILY LIFT INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AS WELL.
EXPECT THE RETURN OF IFR CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
GRAZE THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...AND MAY BRING SOME
SPRINKLES...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...FLURRIES...OR VERY LIGHT SNOW.
HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS NOT VERY HIGH...SO HAVE
OPTED TO OMIT FROM THE TERMINAL FCSTS AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG STARTING THE TAF CYCLE WILL LEAD TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON CATEGORIES. HOWEVER A DRIER AIRMASS SLIDING ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES HAS LED TO IMPROVEMENTS IN BOTH VISBI AND CEILING HEIGHTS
OVER THE PAST HOUR. THIS IMPROVING TREND SHOULD HOLD OUT THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING HOURS ALLOWING EACH TERMINAL TO IMPROVE TO MVFR. WITH
THAT BEING SAID...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF FOG
REDEVELOPING AS THE SUNRISES. MIDDAY COULD SEE KDHT AND MAYBE KGUY
REACHING VFR WITH KAMA REMAINING MVFR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
TONIGHT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF
PREVAILING CONDITIONS FOR KAMA FOR THIS ISSUANCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO DROP FLIGHT CATEGORIES AT THE
TERMINALS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT BROUGHT US SOME LIGHT RAIN TO MAINLY
AND NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WAS MOVING NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THIS
SHORT WAVE THIS MORNING...BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH.

WINDS WILL TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
NEXT FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS NEXT SHORT
WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO
MAINLY THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. IT APPEARS
AGAIN THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER OUR AREA TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW. ANY AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH NO SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT
GIVEN THE LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW.

THE UPPER FLOW WILL THEN TRANSITION FROM A SPLIT FLOW TO MORE OF
A RIDGE TOUGH PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PANHANDLES WILL
COME UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW...WHICH WILL KEEP THE AREA MAINLY
DRY. THERE MAY BE SOME RIPPLES IN THIS FLOW WHICH COULD BRING US
AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW...BUT THE CHANCES ARE TOO
REMOTE TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THIS WEEKEND TO ABOVE NORMAL
WITH MONDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY. THEN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BACK TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 181742 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1142 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...THE MAIN WEATHER ELEMENTS FOR THIS FCST CYCLE WILL
BE LOW CLOUDS AND EPISODES OF FOG. FOG IS SLOWLY ERODING AT THE TAF
SITES AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR CIGS
WILL GRADUALY AND TEMPORARILY LIFT INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AS WELL.
EXPECT THE RETURN OF IFR CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
GRAZE THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...AND MAY BRING SOME
SPRINKLES...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...FLURRIES...OR VERY LIGHT SNOW.
HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS NOT VERY HIGH...SO HAVE
OPTED TO OMIT FROM THE TERMINAL FCSTS AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG STARTING THE TAF CYCLE WILL LEAD TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON CATEGORIES. HOWEVER A DRIER AIRMASS SLIDING ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES HAS LED TO IMPROVEMENTS IN BOTH VISBI AND CEILING HEIGHTS
OVER THE PAST HOUR. THIS IMPROVING TREND SHOULD HOLD OUT THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING HOURS ALLOWING EACH TERMINAL TO IMPROVE TO MVFR. WITH
THAT BEING SAID...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF FOG
REDEVELOPING AS THE SUNRISES. MIDDAY COULD SEE KDHT AND MAYBE KGUY
REACHING VFR WITH KAMA REMAINING MVFR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
TONIGHT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF
PREVAILING CONDITIONS FOR KAMA FOR THIS ISSUANCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO DROP FLIGHT CATEGORIES AT THE
TERMINALS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT BROUGHT US SOME LIGHT RAIN TO MAINLY
AND NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WAS MOVING NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THIS
SHORT WAVE THIS MORNING...BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH.

WINDS WILL TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
NEXT FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS NEXT SHORT
WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO
MAINLY THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. IT APPEARS
AGAIN THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER OUR AREA TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW. ANY AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH NO SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT
GIVEN THE LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW.

THE UPPER FLOW WILL THEN TRANSITION FROM A SPLIT FLOW TO MORE OF
A RIDGE TOUGH PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PANHANDLES WILL
COME UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW...WHICH WILL KEEP THE AREA MAINLY
DRY. THERE MAY BE SOME RIPPLES IN THIS FLOW WHICH COULD BRING US
AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW...BUT THE CHANCES ARE TOO
REMOTE TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THIS WEEKEND TO ABOVE NORMAL
WITH MONDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY. THEN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BACK TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 181742 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1142 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...THE MAIN WEATHER ELEMENTS FOR THIS FCST CYCLE WILL
BE LOW CLOUDS AND EPISODES OF FOG. FOG IS SLOWLY ERODING AT THE TAF
SITES AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR CIGS
WILL GRADUALY AND TEMPORARILY LIFT INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AS WELL.
EXPECT THE RETURN OF IFR CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
GRAZE THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...AND MAY BRING SOME
SPRINKLES...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...FLURRIES...OR VERY LIGHT SNOW.
HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS NOT VERY HIGH...SO HAVE
OPTED TO OMIT FROM THE TERMINAL FCSTS AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG STARTING THE TAF CYCLE WILL LEAD TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON CATEGORIES. HOWEVER A DRIER AIRMASS SLIDING ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES HAS LED TO IMPROVEMENTS IN BOTH VISBI AND CEILING HEIGHTS
OVER THE PAST HOUR. THIS IMPROVING TREND SHOULD HOLD OUT THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING HOURS ALLOWING EACH TERMINAL TO IMPROVE TO MVFR. WITH
THAT BEING SAID...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF FOG
REDEVELOPING AS THE SUNRISES. MIDDAY COULD SEE KDHT AND MAYBE KGUY
REACHING VFR WITH KAMA REMAINING MVFR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
TONIGHT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF
PREVAILING CONDITIONS FOR KAMA FOR THIS ISSUANCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO DROP FLIGHT CATEGORIES AT THE
TERMINALS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT BROUGHT US SOME LIGHT RAIN TO MAINLY
AND NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WAS MOVING NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THIS
SHORT WAVE THIS MORNING...BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH.

WINDS WILL TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
NEXT FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS NEXT SHORT
WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO
MAINLY THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. IT APPEARS
AGAIN THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER OUR AREA TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW. ANY AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH NO SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT
GIVEN THE LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW.

THE UPPER FLOW WILL THEN TRANSITION FROM A SPLIT FLOW TO MORE OF
A RIDGE TOUGH PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PANHANDLES WILL
COME UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW...WHICH WILL KEEP THE AREA MAINLY
DRY. THERE MAY BE SOME RIPPLES IN THIS FLOW WHICH COULD BRING US
AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW...BUT THE CHANCES ARE TOO
REMOTE TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THIS WEEKEND TO ABOVE NORMAL
WITH MONDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY. THEN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BACK TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 181106
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
506 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG STARTING THE TAF CYCLE WILL LEAD TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON CATEGORIES. HOWEVER A DRIER AIRMASS SLIDING ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES HAS LED TO IMPROVEMENTS IN BOTH VISBI AND CEILING HEIGHTS
OVER THE PAST HOUR. THIS IMPROVING TREND SHOULD HOLD OUT THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING HOURS ALLOWING EACH TERMINAL TO IMPROVE TO MVFR. WITH
THAT BEING SAID...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF FOG
REDEVELOPING AS THE SUNRISES. MIDDAY COULD SEE KDHT AND MAYBE KGUY
REACHING VFR WITH KAMA REMAINING MVFR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
TONIGHT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF
PREVAILING CONDITIONS FOR KAMA FOR THIS ISSUANCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO DROP FLIGHT CATEGORIES AT THE
TERMINALS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT BROUGHT US SOME LIGHT RAIN TO MAINLY
AND NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WAS MOVING NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THIS
SHORT WAVE THIS MORNING...BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH.

WINDS WILL TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
NEXT FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS NEXT SHORT
WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO
MAINLY THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. IT APPEARS
AGAIN THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER OUR AREA TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW. ANY AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH NO SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT
GIVEN THE LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW.

THE UPPER FLOW WILL THEN TRANSITION FROM A SPLIT FLOW TO MORE OF
A RIDGE TOUGH PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PANHANDLES WILL
COME UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW...WHICH WILL KEEP THE AREA MAINLY
DRY. THERE MAY BE SOME RIPPLES IN THIS FLOW WHICH COULD BRING US
AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW...BUT THE CHANCES ARE TOO
REMOTE TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THIS WEEKEND TO ABOVE NORMAL
WITH MONDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY. THEN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BACK TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/15






000
FXUS64 KAMA 181106
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
506 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG STARTING THE TAF CYCLE WILL LEAD TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON CATEGORIES. HOWEVER A DRIER AIRMASS SLIDING ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES HAS LED TO IMPROVEMENTS IN BOTH VISBI AND CEILING HEIGHTS
OVER THE PAST HOUR. THIS IMPROVING TREND SHOULD HOLD OUT THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING HOURS ALLOWING EACH TERMINAL TO IMPROVE TO MVFR. WITH
THAT BEING SAID...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF FOG
REDEVELOPING AS THE SUNRISES. MIDDAY COULD SEE KDHT AND MAYBE KGUY
REACHING VFR WITH KAMA REMAINING MVFR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
TONIGHT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF
PREVAILING CONDITIONS FOR KAMA FOR THIS ISSUANCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO DROP FLIGHT CATEGORIES AT THE
TERMINALS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT BROUGHT US SOME LIGHT RAIN TO MAINLY
AND NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WAS MOVING NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THIS
SHORT WAVE THIS MORNING...BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH.

WINDS WILL TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
NEXT FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS NEXT SHORT
WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO
MAINLY THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. IT APPEARS
AGAIN THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER OUR AREA TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW. ANY AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH NO SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT
GIVEN THE LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW.

THE UPPER FLOW WILL THEN TRANSITION FROM A SPLIT FLOW TO MORE OF
A RIDGE TOUGH PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PANHANDLES WILL
COME UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW...WHICH WILL KEEP THE AREA MAINLY
DRY. THERE MAY BE SOME RIPPLES IN THIS FLOW WHICH COULD BRING US
AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW...BUT THE CHANCES ARE TOO
REMOTE TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THIS WEEKEND TO ABOVE NORMAL
WITH MONDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY. THEN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BACK TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/15







000
FXUS64 KAMA 181106
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
506 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG STARTING THE TAF CYCLE WILL LEAD TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON CATEGORIES. HOWEVER A DRIER AIRMASS SLIDING ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES HAS LED TO IMPROVEMENTS IN BOTH VISBI AND CEILING HEIGHTS
OVER THE PAST HOUR. THIS IMPROVING TREND SHOULD HOLD OUT THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING HOURS ALLOWING EACH TERMINAL TO IMPROVE TO MVFR. WITH
THAT BEING SAID...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF FOG
REDEVELOPING AS THE SUNRISES. MIDDAY COULD SEE KDHT AND MAYBE KGUY
REACHING VFR WITH KAMA REMAINING MVFR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
TONIGHT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF
PREVAILING CONDITIONS FOR KAMA FOR THIS ISSUANCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO DROP FLIGHT CATEGORIES AT THE
TERMINALS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT BROUGHT US SOME LIGHT RAIN TO MAINLY
AND NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WAS MOVING NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THIS
SHORT WAVE THIS MORNING...BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH.

WINDS WILL TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
NEXT FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS NEXT SHORT
WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO
MAINLY THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. IT APPEARS
AGAIN THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER OUR AREA TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW. ANY AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH NO SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT
GIVEN THE LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW.

THE UPPER FLOW WILL THEN TRANSITION FROM A SPLIT FLOW TO MORE OF
A RIDGE TOUGH PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PANHANDLES WILL
COME UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW...WHICH WILL KEEP THE AREA MAINLY
DRY. THERE MAY BE SOME RIPPLES IN THIS FLOW WHICH COULD BRING US
AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW...BUT THE CHANCES ARE TOO
REMOTE TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THIS WEEKEND TO ABOVE NORMAL
WITH MONDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY. THEN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BACK TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/15






000
FXUS64 KAMA 181106
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
506 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG STARTING THE TAF CYCLE WILL LEAD TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON CATEGORIES. HOWEVER A DRIER AIRMASS SLIDING ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES HAS LED TO IMPROVEMENTS IN BOTH VISBI AND CEILING HEIGHTS
OVER THE PAST HOUR. THIS IMPROVING TREND SHOULD HOLD OUT THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING HOURS ALLOWING EACH TERMINAL TO IMPROVE TO MVFR. WITH
THAT BEING SAID...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF FOG
REDEVELOPING AS THE SUNRISES. MIDDAY COULD SEE KDHT AND MAYBE KGUY
REACHING VFR WITH KAMA REMAINING MVFR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
TONIGHT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF
PREVAILING CONDITIONS FOR KAMA FOR THIS ISSUANCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO DROP FLIGHT CATEGORIES AT THE
TERMINALS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT BROUGHT US SOME LIGHT RAIN TO MAINLY
AND NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WAS MOVING NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THIS
SHORT WAVE THIS MORNING...BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH.

WINDS WILL TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
NEXT FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS NEXT SHORT
WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO
MAINLY THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. IT APPEARS
AGAIN THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER OUR AREA TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW. ANY AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH NO SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT
GIVEN THE LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW.

THE UPPER FLOW WILL THEN TRANSITION FROM A SPLIT FLOW TO MORE OF
A RIDGE TOUGH PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PANHANDLES WILL
COME UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW...WHICH WILL KEEP THE AREA MAINLY
DRY. THERE MAY BE SOME RIPPLES IN THIS FLOW WHICH COULD BRING US
AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW...BUT THE CHANCES ARE TOO
REMOTE TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THIS WEEKEND TO ABOVE NORMAL
WITH MONDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY. THEN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BACK TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/15







000
FXUS64 KAMA 180842
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
242 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT BROUGHT US SOME LIGHT RAIN TO MAINLY
AND NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WAS MOVING NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THIS
SHORT WAVE THIS MORNING...BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH.

WINDS WILL TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
NEXT FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS NEXT SHORT
WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO
MAINLY THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. IT APPEARS
AGAIN THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER OUR AREA TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW. ANY AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH NO SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT
GIVEN THE LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW.

THE UPPER FLOW WILL THEN TRANSITION FROM A SPLIT FLOW TO MORE OF
A RIDGE TOUGH PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PANHANDLES WILL
COME UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW...WHICH WILL KEEP THE AREA MAINLY
DRY. THERE MAY BE SOME RIPPLES IN THIS FLOW WHICH COULD BRING US
AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW...BUT THE CHANCES ARE TOO
REMOTE TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THIS WEEKEND TO ABOVE NORMAL
WITH MONDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY. THEN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BACK TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                45  31  44  28  53 /   0  30  20   5   0
BEAVER OK                  41  29  46  27  53 /  10  10  10   5   0
BOISE CITY OK              43  25  47  24  50 /   5  10  10   5   0
BORGER TX                  47  32  47  30  54 /   5  20  20   5   0
BOYS RANCH TX              49  31  47  28  54 /   5  30  20   5   0
CANYON TX                  47  32  46  26  55 /   5  30  20   0   0
CLARENDON TX               48  33  46  31  52 /   0  30  20   5   5
DALHART TX                 47  27  47  22  51 /   5  20  10   5   0
GUYMON OK                  43  28  47  26  53 /  10  10  10   5   0
HEREFORD TX                50  31  48  26  55 /   5  30  20   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                43  28  46  28  52 /  10  10  20   5   0
PAMPA TX                   44  30  44  30  52 /   5  20  20   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                45  32  45  31  51 /   5  20  20   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              47  34  46  32  52 /   0  30  20   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/15





000
FXUS64 KAMA 180842
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
242 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT BROUGHT US SOME LIGHT RAIN TO MAINLY
AND NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WAS MOVING NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THIS
SHORT WAVE THIS MORNING...BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH.

WINDS WILL TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
NEXT FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS NEXT SHORT
WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO
MAINLY THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. IT APPEARS
AGAIN THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER OUR AREA TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW. ANY AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH NO SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT
GIVEN THE LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW.

THE UPPER FLOW WILL THEN TRANSITION FROM A SPLIT FLOW TO MORE OF
A RIDGE TOUGH PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PANHANDLES WILL
COME UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW...WHICH WILL KEEP THE AREA MAINLY
DRY. THERE MAY BE SOME RIPPLES IN THIS FLOW WHICH COULD BRING US
AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW...BUT THE CHANCES ARE TOO
REMOTE TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THIS WEEKEND TO ABOVE NORMAL
WITH MONDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY. THEN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BACK TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                45  31  44  28  53 /   0  30  20   5   0
BEAVER OK                  41  29  46  27  53 /  10  10  10   5   0
BOISE CITY OK              43  25  47  24  50 /   5  10  10   5   0
BORGER TX                  47  32  47  30  54 /   5  20  20   5   0
BOYS RANCH TX              49  31  47  28  54 /   5  30  20   5   0
CANYON TX                  47  32  46  26  55 /   5  30  20   0   0
CLARENDON TX               48  33  46  31  52 /   0  30  20   5   5
DALHART TX                 47  27  47  22  51 /   5  20  10   5   0
GUYMON OK                  43  28  47  26  53 /  10  10  10   5   0
HEREFORD TX                50  31  48  26  55 /   5  30  20   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                43  28  46  28  52 /  10  10  20   5   0
PAMPA TX                   44  30  44  30  52 /   5  20  20   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                45  32  45  31  51 /   5  20  20   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              47  34  46  32  52 /   0  30  20   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/15






000
FXUS64 KAMA 180842
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
242 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT BROUGHT US SOME LIGHT RAIN TO MAINLY
AND NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WAS MOVING NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THIS
SHORT WAVE THIS MORNING...BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH.

WINDS WILL TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
NEXT FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS NEXT SHORT
WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO
MAINLY THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. IT APPEARS
AGAIN THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER OUR AREA TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW. ANY AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH NO SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT
GIVEN THE LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW.

THE UPPER FLOW WILL THEN TRANSITION FROM A SPLIT FLOW TO MORE OF
A RIDGE TOUGH PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PANHANDLES WILL
COME UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW...WHICH WILL KEEP THE AREA MAINLY
DRY. THERE MAY BE SOME RIPPLES IN THIS FLOW WHICH COULD BRING US
AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW...BUT THE CHANCES ARE TOO
REMOTE TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THIS WEEKEND TO ABOVE NORMAL
WITH MONDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY. THEN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BACK TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                45  31  44  28  53 /   0  30  20   5   0
BEAVER OK                  41  29  46  27  53 /  10  10  10   5   0
BOISE CITY OK              43  25  47  24  50 /   5  10  10   5   0
BORGER TX                  47  32  47  30  54 /   5  20  20   5   0
BOYS RANCH TX              49  31  47  28  54 /   5  30  20   5   0
CANYON TX                  47  32  46  26  55 /   5  30  20   0   0
CLARENDON TX               48  33  46  31  52 /   0  30  20   5   5
DALHART TX                 47  27  47  22  51 /   5  20  10   5   0
GUYMON OK                  43  28  47  26  53 /  10  10  10   5   0
HEREFORD TX                50  31  48  26  55 /   5  30  20   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                43  28  46  28  52 /  10  10  20   5   0
PAMPA TX                   44  30  44  30  52 /   5  20  20   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                45  32  45  31  51 /   5  20  20   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              47  34  46  32  52 /   0  30  20   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/15





000
FXUS64 KAMA 180456 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1056 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...IFR OR LOWER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH ABOUT 12Z TO 15Z THURSDAY. AT KAMA...BR AND FG WILL
LOWER VISIBILITY TO 1/2 SM AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT ALL SITES BY 12Z.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS STARTING OUT THE PERIOD AT
KAMA AND SHOULD LAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BY 03Z...IFR CEILINGS
SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP AT KGUY AND LAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AT
KDHT...MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY AROUND 05Z. A FEW
SHOWERS OF -RA OR -FZRA ARE POSSIBLE AT KGUY BEFORE 06Z.
OTHERWISE...ALL SITES WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM SOUTHERLY TO
NORTHERLY WINDS AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT.

NF

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM... STRONGEST WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS SHIFTED EAST SO THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION HAS AS WELL. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE AREA BUT
MOISTURE WILL BECOME SHALLOWER LATER TONIGHT LEAVING LOW CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF DRIZZLE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND
FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
WARMER AND ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED IN COVERAGE
AND DURATION. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT BUT CLEARING IS IN QUESTION. A PERIOD OF PARTIAL
CLEARING MAY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
AND APPROACH THE CONUS TOMORROW EVENING.

BOWERS

LONG TERM...
NEXT UPPER TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF
OR SO OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. A COOL SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD DOWN
INTO THE FORECAST AREA THE END OF THE WEEK. A BRIEF UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD INTO THE PANHANDLES SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND WEST TEXAS
SUNDAY. LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY HIGH LEVEL AND POSSIBLY
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE COOL SURFACE RIDGE
SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST AND SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PACIFIC
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. AGAIN...LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INHIBIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS NEXT MONDAY FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT COOLER CONDITIONS TUESDAY
BEHIND THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/09







000
FXUS64 KAMA 180456 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1056 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...IFR OR LOWER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH ABOUT 12Z TO 15Z THURSDAY. AT KAMA...BR AND FG WILL
LOWER VISIBILITY TO 1/2 SM AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT ALL SITES BY 12Z.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS STARTING OUT THE PERIOD AT
KAMA AND SHOULD LAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BY 03Z...IFR CEILINGS
SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP AT KGUY AND LAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AT
KDHT...MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY AROUND 05Z. A FEW
SHOWERS OF -RA OR -FZRA ARE POSSIBLE AT KGUY BEFORE 06Z.
OTHERWISE...ALL SITES WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM SOUTHERLY TO
NORTHERLY WINDS AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT.

NF

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM... STRONGEST WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS SHIFTED EAST SO THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION HAS AS WELL. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE AREA BUT
MOISTURE WILL BECOME SHALLOWER LATER TONIGHT LEAVING LOW CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF DRIZZLE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND
FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
WARMER AND ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED IN COVERAGE
AND DURATION. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT BUT CLEARING IS IN QUESTION. A PERIOD OF PARTIAL
CLEARING MAY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
AND APPROACH THE CONUS TOMORROW EVENING.

BOWERS

LONG TERM...
NEXT UPPER TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF
OR SO OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. A COOL SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD DOWN
INTO THE FORECAST AREA THE END OF THE WEEK. A BRIEF UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD INTO THE PANHANDLES SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND WEST TEXAS
SUNDAY. LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY HIGH LEVEL AND POSSIBLY
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE COOL SURFACE RIDGE
SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST AND SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PACIFIC
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. AGAIN...LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INHIBIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS NEXT MONDAY FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT COOLER CONDITIONS TUESDAY
BEHIND THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/09






000
FXUS64 KAMA 180006 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
606 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS STARTING OUT THE PERIOD AT
KAMA AND SHOULD LAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BY 03Z...IFR CEILINGS
SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP AT KGUY AND LAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AT
KDHT...MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY AROUND 05Z. A FEW
SHOWERS OF -RA OR -FZRA ARE POSSIBLE AT KGUY BEFORE 06Z.
OTHERWISE...ALL SITES WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM SOUTHERLY TO
NORTHERLY WINDS AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM... STRONGEST WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS SHIFTED EAST SO THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION HAS AS WELL. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE AREA BUT
MOISTURE WILL BECOME SHALLOWER LATER TONIGHT LEAVING LOW CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF DRIZZLE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND
FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
WARMER AND ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED IN COVERAGE
AND DURATION. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT BUT CLEARING IS IN QUESTION. A PERIOD OF PARTIAL
CLEARING MAY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
AND APPROACH THE CONUS TOMORROW EVENING.

BOWERS

LONG TERM...
NEXT UPPER TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF
OR SO OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. A COOL SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD DOWN
INTO THE FORECAST AREA THE END OF THE WEEK. A BRIEF UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD INTO THE PANHANDLES SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND WEST TEXAS
SUNDAY. LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY HIGH LEVEL AND POSSIBLY
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE COOL SURFACE RIDGE
SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST AND SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PACIFIC
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. AGAIN...LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INHIBIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS NEXT MONDAY FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT COOLER CONDITIONS TUESDAY
BEHIND THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/18






000
FXUS64 KAMA 180006 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
606 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS STARTING OUT THE PERIOD AT
KAMA AND SHOULD LAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BY 03Z...IFR CEILINGS
SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP AT KGUY AND LAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AT
KDHT...MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY AROUND 05Z. A FEW
SHOWERS OF -RA OR -FZRA ARE POSSIBLE AT KGUY BEFORE 06Z.
OTHERWISE...ALL SITES WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM SOUTHERLY TO
NORTHERLY WINDS AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM... STRONGEST WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS SHIFTED EAST SO THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION HAS AS WELL. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE AREA BUT
MOISTURE WILL BECOME SHALLOWER LATER TONIGHT LEAVING LOW CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF DRIZZLE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND
FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
WARMER AND ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED IN COVERAGE
AND DURATION. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT BUT CLEARING IS IN QUESTION. A PERIOD OF PARTIAL
CLEARING MAY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
AND APPROACH THE CONUS TOMORROW EVENING.

BOWERS

LONG TERM...
NEXT UPPER TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF
OR SO OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. A COOL SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD DOWN
INTO THE FORECAST AREA THE END OF THE WEEK. A BRIEF UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD INTO THE PANHANDLES SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND WEST TEXAS
SUNDAY. LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY HIGH LEVEL AND POSSIBLY
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE COOL SURFACE RIDGE
SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST AND SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PACIFIC
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. AGAIN...LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INHIBIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS NEXT MONDAY FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT COOLER CONDITIONS TUESDAY
BEHIND THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/18







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