Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS64 KAMA 281721
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1221 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR IN AND NEAR CONVECTION AT ALL THREE
TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 03Z TO 05Z FRIDAY. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20
KNOTS OR 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL BECOME WESTERLY
AND NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 08Z TO 10Z FRIDAY...AND THEN
NORTHERLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AFTER 10Z
TO 14Z FRIDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

AVIATION...

LATEST 11-3.9 IR SATELLITE SHOWS EVIDENCE OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS
MAINLY SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING.
HEREFORD AWOS IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MVFR CEILINGS. KAMA AND KDHT
COULD BRIEFLY SEE MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING BUT PROBABILITY IS
RELATIVELY LOW. MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE TIMING OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. STORMS SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH STORMS MAY IMPACT KGUY THIS MORNING. WILL MONITOR
RADAR TRENDS AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS NECESSARY.

BRB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MCS IS FINALLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
TEXAS PANHANDLE.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE AGAIN
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEY WILL LIKELY BRING SOME MORE HEAVY RAINFALL
TO PLACES THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL LAST NIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS WAVE COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO HELP TO PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.

A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES EARLY SATURDAY...
WHICH WILL TAKE THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE SOUTH.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS FORECAST. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD FOR NOW. BUT THE MODELS DO HINT AT SOME MINOR
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THIS RIDGE WHICH COULD HELP SPARK
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES.

HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PRAIRIE DOG TOWN FORK
OF THE RED RIVER NEAR WAYSIDE AND FOR THE CANADIAN RIVER NEAR
CANADIAN. THESE RIVERS WILL SLOWLY RECEDE TODAY...BUT THEY COULD GO
BACK UP IF MORE HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS. THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE
ALSO RECEIVED 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN...BUT MOST OF THIS FELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SALT FORK OF THE RED RIVER/S BASIN.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF SMITH...
     DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER.


&&

$$

11/14







000
FXUS64 KAMA 281721
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1221 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR IN AND NEAR CONVECTION AT ALL THREE
TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 03Z TO 05Z FRIDAY. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20
KNOTS OR 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL BECOME WESTERLY
AND NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 08Z TO 10Z FRIDAY...AND THEN
NORTHERLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AFTER 10Z
TO 14Z FRIDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

AVIATION...

LATEST 11-3.9 IR SATELLITE SHOWS EVIDENCE OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS
MAINLY SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING.
HEREFORD AWOS IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MVFR CEILINGS. KAMA AND KDHT
COULD BRIEFLY SEE MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING BUT PROBABILITY IS
RELATIVELY LOW. MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE TIMING OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. STORMS SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH STORMS MAY IMPACT KGUY THIS MORNING. WILL MONITOR
RADAR TRENDS AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS NECESSARY.

BRB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MCS IS FINALLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
TEXAS PANHANDLE.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE AGAIN
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEY WILL LIKELY BRING SOME MORE HEAVY RAINFALL
TO PLACES THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL LAST NIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS WAVE COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO HELP TO PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.

A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES EARLY SATURDAY...
WHICH WILL TAKE THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE SOUTH.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS FORECAST. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD FOR NOW. BUT THE MODELS DO HINT AT SOME MINOR
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THIS RIDGE WHICH COULD HELP SPARK
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES.

HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PRAIRIE DOG TOWN FORK
OF THE RED RIVER NEAR WAYSIDE AND FOR THE CANADIAN RIVER NEAR
CANADIAN. THESE RIVERS WILL SLOWLY RECEDE TODAY...BUT THEY COULD GO
BACK UP IF MORE HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS. THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE
ALSO RECEIVED 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN...BUT MOST OF THIS FELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SALT FORK OF THE RED RIVER/S BASIN.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF SMITH...
     DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER.


&&

$$

11/14







000
FXUS64 KAMA 281721
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1221 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR IN AND NEAR CONVECTION AT ALL THREE
TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 03Z TO 05Z FRIDAY. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20
KNOTS OR 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL BECOME WESTERLY
AND NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 08Z TO 10Z FRIDAY...AND THEN
NORTHERLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AFTER 10Z
TO 14Z FRIDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

AVIATION...

LATEST 11-3.9 IR SATELLITE SHOWS EVIDENCE OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS
MAINLY SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING.
HEREFORD AWOS IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MVFR CEILINGS. KAMA AND KDHT
COULD BRIEFLY SEE MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING BUT PROBABILITY IS
RELATIVELY LOW. MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE TIMING OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. STORMS SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH STORMS MAY IMPACT KGUY THIS MORNING. WILL MONITOR
RADAR TRENDS AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS NECESSARY.

BRB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MCS IS FINALLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
TEXAS PANHANDLE.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE AGAIN
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEY WILL LIKELY BRING SOME MORE HEAVY RAINFALL
TO PLACES THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL LAST NIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS WAVE COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO HELP TO PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.

A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES EARLY SATURDAY...
WHICH WILL TAKE THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE SOUTH.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS FORECAST. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD FOR NOW. BUT THE MODELS DO HINT AT SOME MINOR
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THIS RIDGE WHICH COULD HELP SPARK
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES.

HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PRAIRIE DOG TOWN FORK
OF THE RED RIVER NEAR WAYSIDE AND FOR THE CANADIAN RIVER NEAR
CANADIAN. THESE RIVERS WILL SLOWLY RECEDE TODAY...BUT THEY COULD GO
BACK UP IF MORE HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS. THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE
ALSO RECEIVED 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN...BUT MOST OF THIS FELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SALT FORK OF THE RED RIVER/S BASIN.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF SMITH...
     DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER.


&&

$$

11/14






000
FXUS64 KAMA 281721
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1221 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR IN AND NEAR CONVECTION AT ALL THREE
TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 03Z TO 05Z FRIDAY. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20
KNOTS OR 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL BECOME WESTERLY
AND NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 08Z TO 10Z FRIDAY...AND THEN
NORTHERLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AFTER 10Z
TO 14Z FRIDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

AVIATION...

LATEST 11-3.9 IR SATELLITE SHOWS EVIDENCE OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS
MAINLY SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING.
HEREFORD AWOS IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MVFR CEILINGS. KAMA AND KDHT
COULD BRIEFLY SEE MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING BUT PROBABILITY IS
RELATIVELY LOW. MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE TIMING OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. STORMS SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH STORMS MAY IMPACT KGUY THIS MORNING. WILL MONITOR
RADAR TRENDS AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS NECESSARY.

BRB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MCS IS FINALLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
TEXAS PANHANDLE.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE AGAIN
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEY WILL LIKELY BRING SOME MORE HEAVY RAINFALL
TO PLACES THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL LAST NIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS WAVE COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO HELP TO PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.

A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES EARLY SATURDAY...
WHICH WILL TAKE THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE SOUTH.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS FORECAST. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD FOR NOW. BUT THE MODELS DO HINT AT SOME MINOR
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THIS RIDGE WHICH COULD HELP SPARK
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES.

HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PRAIRIE DOG TOWN FORK
OF THE RED RIVER NEAR WAYSIDE AND FOR THE CANADIAN RIVER NEAR
CANADIAN. THESE RIVERS WILL SLOWLY RECEDE TODAY...BUT THEY COULD GO
BACK UP IF MORE HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS. THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE
ALSO RECEIVED 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN...BUT MOST OF THIS FELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SALT FORK OF THE RED RIVER/S BASIN.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF SMITH...
     DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER.


&&

$$

11/14






000
FXUS64 KAMA 281122
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
622 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...

LATEST 11-3.9 IR SATELLITE SHOWS EVIDENCE OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS
MAINLY SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING.
HEREFORD AWOS IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MVFR CEILINGS. KAMA AND KDHT
COULD BRIEFLY SEE MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING BUT PROBABILITY IS
RELATIVELY LOW. MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE TIMING OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. STORMS SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH STORMS MAY IMPACT KGUY THIS MORNING. WILL MONITOR
RADAR TRENDS AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS NECESSARY.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MCS IS FINALLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
TEXAS PANHANDLE.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE AGAIN
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEY WILL LIKELY BRING SOME MORE HEAVY RAINFALL
TO PLACES THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL LAST NIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS WAVE COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO HELP TO PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.

A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES EARLY SATURDAY...
WHICH WILL TAKE THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE SOUTH.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS FORECAST. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD FOR NOW. BUT THE MODELS DO HINT AT SOME MINOR
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THIS RIDGE WHICH COULD HELP SPARK
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES.

HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PRAIRIE DOG TOWN FORK
OF THE RED RIVER NEAR WAYSIDE AND FOR THE CANADIAN RIVER NEAR
CANADIAN. THESE RIVERS WILL SLOWLY RECEDE TODAY...BUT THEY COULD GO
BACK UP IF MORE HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS. THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE
ALSO RECEIVED 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN...BUT MOST OF THIS FELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SALT FORK OF THE RED RIVER/S BASIN.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF SMITH...
     DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER.


&&

$$

17/15







000
FXUS64 KAMA 281122
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
622 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...

LATEST 11-3.9 IR SATELLITE SHOWS EVIDENCE OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS
MAINLY SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING.
HEREFORD AWOS IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MVFR CEILINGS. KAMA AND KDHT
COULD BRIEFLY SEE MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING BUT PROBABILITY IS
RELATIVELY LOW. MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE TIMING OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. STORMS SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH STORMS MAY IMPACT KGUY THIS MORNING. WILL MONITOR
RADAR TRENDS AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS NECESSARY.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MCS IS FINALLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
TEXAS PANHANDLE.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE AGAIN
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEY WILL LIKELY BRING SOME MORE HEAVY RAINFALL
TO PLACES THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL LAST NIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS WAVE COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO HELP TO PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.

A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES EARLY SATURDAY...
WHICH WILL TAKE THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE SOUTH.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS FORECAST. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD FOR NOW. BUT THE MODELS DO HINT AT SOME MINOR
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THIS RIDGE WHICH COULD HELP SPARK
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES.

HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PRAIRIE DOG TOWN FORK
OF THE RED RIVER NEAR WAYSIDE AND FOR THE CANADIAN RIVER NEAR
CANADIAN. THESE RIVERS WILL SLOWLY RECEDE TODAY...BUT THEY COULD GO
BACK UP IF MORE HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS. THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE
ALSO RECEIVED 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN...BUT MOST OF THIS FELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SALT FORK OF THE RED RIVER/S BASIN.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF SMITH...
     DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER.


&&

$$

17/15








000
FXUS64 KAMA 281122
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
622 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...

LATEST 11-3.9 IR SATELLITE SHOWS EVIDENCE OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS
MAINLY SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING.
HEREFORD AWOS IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MVFR CEILINGS. KAMA AND KDHT
COULD BRIEFLY SEE MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING BUT PROBABILITY IS
RELATIVELY LOW. MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE TIMING OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. STORMS SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH STORMS MAY IMPACT KGUY THIS MORNING. WILL MONITOR
RADAR TRENDS AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS NECESSARY.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MCS IS FINALLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
TEXAS PANHANDLE.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE AGAIN
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEY WILL LIKELY BRING SOME MORE HEAVY RAINFALL
TO PLACES THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL LAST NIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS WAVE COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO HELP TO PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.

A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES EARLY SATURDAY...
WHICH WILL TAKE THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE SOUTH.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS FORECAST. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD FOR NOW. BUT THE MODELS DO HINT AT SOME MINOR
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THIS RIDGE WHICH COULD HELP SPARK
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES.

HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PRAIRIE DOG TOWN FORK
OF THE RED RIVER NEAR WAYSIDE AND FOR THE CANADIAN RIVER NEAR
CANADIAN. THESE RIVERS WILL SLOWLY RECEDE TODAY...BUT THEY COULD GO
BACK UP IF MORE HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS. THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE
ALSO RECEIVED 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN...BUT MOST OF THIS FELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SALT FORK OF THE RED RIVER/S BASIN.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF SMITH...
     DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER.


&&

$$

17/15







000
FXUS64 KAMA 281122
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
622 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...

LATEST 11-3.9 IR SATELLITE SHOWS EVIDENCE OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS
MAINLY SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING.
HEREFORD AWOS IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MVFR CEILINGS. KAMA AND KDHT
COULD BRIEFLY SEE MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING BUT PROBABILITY IS
RELATIVELY LOW. MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE TIMING OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. STORMS SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH STORMS MAY IMPACT KGUY THIS MORNING. WILL MONITOR
RADAR TRENDS AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS NECESSARY.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MCS IS FINALLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
TEXAS PANHANDLE.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE AGAIN
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEY WILL LIKELY BRING SOME MORE HEAVY RAINFALL
TO PLACES THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL LAST NIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS WAVE COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO HELP TO PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.

A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES EARLY SATURDAY...
WHICH WILL TAKE THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE SOUTH.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS FORECAST. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD FOR NOW. BUT THE MODELS DO HINT AT SOME MINOR
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THIS RIDGE WHICH COULD HELP SPARK
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES.

HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PRAIRIE DOG TOWN FORK
OF THE RED RIVER NEAR WAYSIDE AND FOR THE CANADIAN RIVER NEAR
CANADIAN. THESE RIVERS WILL SLOWLY RECEDE TODAY...BUT THEY COULD GO
BACK UP IF MORE HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS. THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE
ALSO RECEIVED 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN...BUT MOST OF THIS FELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SALT FORK OF THE RED RIVER/S BASIN.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF SMITH...
     DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER.


&&

$$

17/15








000
FXUS64 KAMA 280843
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
343 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MCS IS FINALLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
TEXAS PANHANDLE.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE AGAIN
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEY WILL LIKELY BRING SOME MORE HEAVY RAINFALL
TO PLACES THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL LAST NIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS WAVE COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO HELP TO PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.

A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES EARLY SATURDAY...
WHICH WILL TAKE THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE SOUTH.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS FORECAST. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD FOR NOW. BUT THE MODELS DO HINT AT SOME MINOR
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THIS RIDGE WHICH COULD HELP SPARK
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PRAIRIE DOG TOWN FORK
OF THE RED RIVER NEAR WAYSIDE AND FOR THE CANADIAN RIVER NEAR
CANADIAN. THESE RIVERS WILL SLOWLY RECEDE TODAY...BUT THEY COULD GO
BACK UP IF MORE HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS. THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE
ALSO RECEIVED 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN...BUT MOST OF THIS FELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SALT FORK OF THE RED RIVER/S BASIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                76  58  78  56  70 /  60  40  20  50  30
BEAVER OK                  83  61  80  56  70 /  50  60  40  40  20
BOISE CITY OK              81  54  75  52  67 /  40  40  20  60  20
BORGER TX                  79  60  80  57  72 /  60  50  30  50  20
BOYS RANCH TX              80  58  79  56  72 /  60  40  20  50  20
CANYON TX                  77  58  78  57  70 /  60  40  20  60  30
CLARENDON TX               77  60  80  58  72 /  60  60  30  60  30
DALHART TX                 80  56  77  54  69 /  40  40  20  60  20
GUYMON OK                  82  58  78  54  70 /  60  50  30  50  20
HEREFORD TX                80  57  80  56  71 /  60  40  20  60  30
LIPSCOMB TX                79  61  78  57  69 /  50  60  40  40  20
PAMPA TX                   76  59  77  55  69 /  60  60  30  50  20
SHAMROCK TX                78  62  78  60  71 /  50  70  40  50  30
WELLINGTON TX              80  63  81  61  73 /  60  70  40  60  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF SMITH...
     DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER.


&&

$$

17/15






000
FXUS64 KAMA 280843
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
343 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MCS IS FINALLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
TEXAS PANHANDLE.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE AGAIN
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEY WILL LIKELY BRING SOME MORE HEAVY RAINFALL
TO PLACES THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL LAST NIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS WAVE COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO HELP TO PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.

A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES EARLY SATURDAY...
WHICH WILL TAKE THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE SOUTH.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS FORECAST. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD FOR NOW. BUT THE MODELS DO HINT AT SOME MINOR
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THIS RIDGE WHICH COULD HELP SPARK
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PRAIRIE DOG TOWN FORK
OF THE RED RIVER NEAR WAYSIDE AND FOR THE CANADIAN RIVER NEAR
CANADIAN. THESE RIVERS WILL SLOWLY RECEDE TODAY...BUT THEY COULD GO
BACK UP IF MORE HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS. THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE
ALSO RECEIVED 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN...BUT MOST OF THIS FELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SALT FORK OF THE RED RIVER/S BASIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                76  58  78  56  70 /  60  40  20  50  30
BEAVER OK                  83  61  80  56  70 /  50  60  40  40  20
BOISE CITY OK              81  54  75  52  67 /  40  40  20  60  20
BORGER TX                  79  60  80  57  72 /  60  50  30  50  20
BOYS RANCH TX              80  58  79  56  72 /  60  40  20  50  20
CANYON TX                  77  58  78  57  70 /  60  40  20  60  30
CLARENDON TX               77  60  80  58  72 /  60  60  30  60  30
DALHART TX                 80  56  77  54  69 /  40  40  20  60  20
GUYMON OK                  82  58  78  54  70 /  60  50  30  50  20
HEREFORD TX                80  57  80  56  71 /  60  40  20  60  30
LIPSCOMB TX                79  61  78  57  69 /  50  60  40  40  20
PAMPA TX                   76  59  77  55  69 /  60  60  30  50  20
SHAMROCK TX                78  62  78  60  71 /  50  70  40  50  30
WELLINGTON TX              80  63  81  61  73 /  60  70  40  60  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF SMITH...
     DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER.


&&

$$

17/15







000
FXUS64 KAMA 280455 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1155 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR THE AMA TAF SITE DURING THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THIS FORECAST. THINK DHT AND GUY WILL REMAIN TSRA FREE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES BY MID AFTERNOON AND THEN THEY SHOULD
MOVE EAST AND AFFECT ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AND THEY WILL GET GUSTY AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

AVIATION...
00 TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING. INITIAL
CONVECTION WILL START WINDING DOWN WITH SUNSET...BUT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
SAVED PREVAILING THUNDER FOR KAMA UNTIL CLOSER TO AFTERNOON...BUT
WILL LIKELY BE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS NEAR ALL THE TERMINALS
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...SLOWLY LIFTING TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AT 8 TO 15KTS WITH PERIODS OF GUSTS NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

ELSENHEIMER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS INITIATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
STORMS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY AND LIKELY BECOME SEVERE OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PANHANDLES THIS EVENING. VERY IMPRESSIVE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES
OF 3000-4500 J/KG ARE PRESENT...AND A MODERATE AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR...THOUGH
MAINLY OF THE DIRECTIONAL VARIETY. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SEVERE STORMS WITH MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE PRIMARY
THREATS...THOUGH A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. STORMS WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON TODAY`S SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEE MESOSCALE UPDATE
IN PREVIOUS AFD.

THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMES TONIGHT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER BAJA WILL CONTINUE MOVING INLAND...AND
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AHEAD OF IT IN GENERALLY
WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGH SATURDAY. A BIT DIFFICULT
TO PICK OUT THE BETTER CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE MAIN FORCING
WILL BE LIKELY TIED TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT HAS YET TO BE RESOLVED
CLEARLY...AND AS SUCH...DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
ONE POSSIBILITY ARE THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS OVER THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES AGAIN AS SURFACE CONVERGENCE REMAINS IN PLACE...THOUGH
SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THAT AREA WILL BE IN THE PANHANDLES OR
FURTHER EAST OVER OKLAHOMA. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-60S ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SIMILAR TO TODAY`S PLACEMENT...AS WELL AS FORECASTED SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG. THIS COULD BE LIMITED THOUGH
BY LEFTOVER CLOUDS FROM ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
MOST CLEAR SIGNAL APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS WHAT IS LEFT OF THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE
PANHANDLES. ALSO APPEARS A SURFACE FRONT COULD PROVIDE SOME
ADDITIONAL FORCING DURING THIS PERIOD. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS WE SEE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

BY SUNDAY....UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PANHANDLES TO START
THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR AREA FAIRLY DRY...THOUGH ANY
CONVECTION THAT FORMS UPSTREAM COULD MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES UNDER THIS FLOW REGIME.  THE CENTER OF
THE RIDGE STARTS PUSHING EAST AND BREAKING DOWN SOMEWHAT ON TUESDAY
AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/17






000
FXUS64 KAMA 272337
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
637 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
00 TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING. INITIAL
CONVECTION WILL START WINDING DOWN WITH SUNSET...BUT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
SAVED PREVAILING THUNDER FOR KAMA UNTIL CLOSER TO AFTERNOON...BUT
WILL LIKELY BE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS NEAR ALL THE TERMINALS
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...SLOWLY LIFTING TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AT 8 TO 15KTS WITH PERIODS OF GUSTS NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS INITIATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
STORMS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY AND LIKELY BECOME SEVERE OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PANHANDLES THIS EVENING. VERY IMPRESSIVE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES
OF 3000-4500 J/KG ARE PRESENT...AND A MODERATE AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR...THOUGH
MAINLY OF THE DIRECTIONAL VARIETY. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SEVERE STORMS WITH MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE PRIMARY
THREATS...THOUGH A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. STORMS WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON TODAY`S SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEE MESOSCALE UPDATE
IN PREVIOUS AFD.

THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMES TONIGHT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER BAJA WILL CONTINUE MOVING INLAND...AND
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AHEAD OF IT IN GENERALLY
WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGH SATURDAY. A BIT DIFFICULT
TO PICK OUT THE BETTER CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE MAIN FORCING
WILL BE LIKELY TIED TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT HAS YET TO BE RESOLVED
CLEARLY...AND AS SUCH...DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
ONE POSSIBILITY ARE THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS OVER THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES AGAIN AS SURFACE CONVERGENCE REMAINS IN PLACE...THOUGH
SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THAT AREA WILL BE IN THE PANHANDLES OR
FURTHER EAST OVER OKLAHOMA. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-60S ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SIMILAR TO TODAY`S PLACEMENT...AS WELL AS FORECASTED SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG. THIS COULD BE LIMITED THOUGH
BY LEFTOVER CLOUDS FROM ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
MOST CLEAR SIGNAL APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS WHAT IS LEFT OF THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE
PANHANDLES. ALSO APPEARS A SURFACE FRONT COULD PROVIDE SOME
ADDITIONAL FORCING DURING THIS PERIOD. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS WE SEE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

BY SUNDAY....UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PANHANDLES TO START
THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR AREA FAIRLY DRY...THOUGH ANY
CONVECTION THAT FORMS UPSTREAM COULD MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES UNDER THIS FLOW REGIME.  THE CENTER OF
THE RIDGE STARTS PUSHING EAST AND BREAKING DOWN SOMEWHAT ON TUESDAY
AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

18/08







000
FXUS64 KAMA 272020
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
320 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS INITIATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
STORMS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY AND LIKELY BECOME SEVERE OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PANHANDLES THIS EVENING. VERY IMPRESSIVE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES
OF 3000-4500 J/KG ARE PRESENT...AND A MODERATE AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR...THOUGH
MAINLY OF THE DIRECTIONAL VARIETY. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SEVERE STORMS WITH MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE PRIMARY
THREATS...THOUGH A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. STORMS WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON TODAY`S SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEE MESOSCALE UPDATE
IN PREVIOUS AFD.

THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMES TONIGHT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER BAJA WILL CONTINUE MOVING INLAND...AND
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AHEAD OF IT IN GENERALLY
WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGH SATURDAY. A BIT DIFFICULT
TO PICK OUT THE BETTER CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE MAIN FORCING
WILL BE LIKELY TIED TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT HAS YET TO BE RESOLVED
CLEARLY...AND AS SUCH...DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
ONE POSSIBILITY ARE THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS OVER THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES AGAIN AS SURFACE CONVERGENCE REMAINS IN PLACE...THOUGH
SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THAT AREA WILL BE IN THE PANHANDLES OR
FURTHER EAST OVER OKLAHOMA. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-60S ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SIMILAR TO TODAY`S PLACEMENT...AS WELL AS FORECASTED SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG. THIS COULD BE LIMITED THOUGH
BY LEFTOVER CLOUDS FROM ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
MOST CLEAR SIGNAL APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS WHAT IS LEFT OF THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE
PANHANDLES. ALSO APPEARS A SURFACE FRONT COULD PROVIDE SOME
ADDITIONAL FORCING DURING THIS PERIOD. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS WE SEE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

BY SUNDAY....UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PANHANDLES TO START
THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR AREA FAIRLY DRY...THOUGH ANY
CONVECTION THAT FORMS UPSTREAM COULD MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES UNDER THIS FLOW REGIME.  THE CENTER OF
THE RIDGE STARTS PUSHING EAST AND BREAKING DOWN SOMEWHAT ON TUESDAY
AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                60  75  58  76  56 /  40  60  40  20  50
BEAVER OK                  62  79  61  78  56 /  50  60  50  40  50
BOISE CITY OK              58  77  55  74  52 /  30  30  30  20  50
BORGER TX                  63  78  61  78  57 /  30  50  40  30  50
BOYS RANCH TX              61  77  59  78  56 /  30  60  40  20  50
CANYON TX                  60  75  58  77  57 /  40  60  40  20  50
CLARENDON TX               61  77  60  78  58 /  50  60  50  30  70
DALHART TX                 59  77  57  76  54 /  30  50  30  20  50
GUYMON OK                  61  79  59  77  54 /  40  40  40  30  50
HEREFORD TX                59  77  58  78  56 /  30  60  40  20  50
LIPSCOMB TX                63  77  62  77  57 /  50  60  50  40  50
PAMPA TX                   60  74  59  76  56 /  40  60  50  30  50
SHAMROCK TX                62  77  61  77  59 /  40  60  60  40  70
WELLINGTON TX              65  78  62  79  61 /  50  60  60  40  70

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/18







000
FXUS64 KAMA 272020
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
320 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS INITIATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
STORMS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY AND LIKELY BECOME SEVERE OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PANHANDLES THIS EVENING. VERY IMPRESSIVE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES
OF 3000-4500 J/KG ARE PRESENT...AND A MODERATE AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR...THOUGH
MAINLY OF THE DIRECTIONAL VARIETY. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SEVERE STORMS WITH MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE PRIMARY
THREATS...THOUGH A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. STORMS WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON TODAY`S SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEE MESOSCALE UPDATE
IN PREVIOUS AFD.

THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMES TONIGHT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER BAJA WILL CONTINUE MOVING INLAND...AND
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AHEAD OF IT IN GENERALLY
WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGH SATURDAY. A BIT DIFFICULT
TO PICK OUT THE BETTER CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE MAIN FORCING
WILL BE LIKELY TIED TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT HAS YET TO BE RESOLVED
CLEARLY...AND AS SUCH...DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
ONE POSSIBILITY ARE THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS OVER THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES AGAIN AS SURFACE CONVERGENCE REMAINS IN PLACE...THOUGH
SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THAT AREA WILL BE IN THE PANHANDLES OR
FURTHER EAST OVER OKLAHOMA. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-60S ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SIMILAR TO TODAY`S PLACEMENT...AS WELL AS FORECASTED SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG. THIS COULD BE LIMITED THOUGH
BY LEFTOVER CLOUDS FROM ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
MOST CLEAR SIGNAL APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS WHAT IS LEFT OF THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE
PANHANDLES. ALSO APPEARS A SURFACE FRONT COULD PROVIDE SOME
ADDITIONAL FORCING DURING THIS PERIOD. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS WE SEE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

BY SUNDAY....UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PANHANDLES TO START
THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR AREA FAIRLY DRY...THOUGH ANY
CONVECTION THAT FORMS UPSTREAM COULD MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES UNDER THIS FLOW REGIME.  THE CENTER OF
THE RIDGE STARTS PUSHING EAST AND BREAKING DOWN SOMEWHAT ON TUESDAY
AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                60  75  58  76  56 /  40  60  40  20  50
BEAVER OK                  62  79  61  78  56 /  50  60  50  40  50
BOISE CITY OK              58  77  55  74  52 /  30  30  30  20  50
BORGER TX                  63  78  61  78  57 /  30  50  40  30  50
BOYS RANCH TX              61  77  59  78  56 /  30  60  40  20  50
CANYON TX                  60  75  58  77  57 /  40  60  40  20  50
CLARENDON TX               61  77  60  78  58 /  50  60  50  30  70
DALHART TX                 59  77  57  76  54 /  30  50  30  20  50
GUYMON OK                  61  79  59  77  54 /  40  40  40  30  50
HEREFORD TX                59  77  58  78  56 /  30  60  40  20  50
LIPSCOMB TX                63  77  62  77  57 /  50  60  50  40  50
PAMPA TX                   60  74  59  76  56 /  40  60  50  30  50
SHAMROCK TX                62  77  61  77  59 /  40  60  60  40  70
WELLINGTON TX              65  78  62  79  61 /  50  60  60  40  70

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/18






000
FXUS64 KAMA 271712
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1212 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE BEFORE CONVECTION
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. HAVE INSERTED
MENTION OF VICINITY THUNDER AROUND 20Z FOR KAMA AND KGUY WHICH HAVE
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS BASED ON
ANTICIPATED INITIATION LOCATIONS. HAVE HELD OFF PREVAILING THUNDER AS
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IF CONVECTION WILL MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS.
SHOULD CONVECTION DIRECTLY IMPACT A TERMINAL KGUY HAS THE BEST CHANCE
FOLLOWED BY KAMA. KDHT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CONVECTION FREE UNTIL
AFTER 00Z OR EVEN 06Z. CONVECTION INCREASES IN AREA COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT AND HAVE HAVE GONE WITH PREVAILING SHOWERS FOR KAMA WITH
VICINITY THUNDER AROUND 10Z. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DEGRADE AS
CONVECTION APPROACHES THE TERMINALS AND HAVE STARTED A TREND OF LOWER
CEILINGS ESPECIALLY TOWARDS TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY
BUILDS TO LEVELS NOT SEEN AROUND THE PANHANDLES IN MAYBE A FEW
YEARS. WIND SHEAR WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER,
BUT IN SPITE OF LACKING SPEED SHEAR, FAVORABLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
SHOULD PROVE ENOUGH TO PROMOTE STORM ORGANIZATION THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE THAN ONE ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN
NOW AND TOMORROW MORNING, BUT THIS DISCUSSION WILL FOCUS ON THE
THREAT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM/RAP
INDICATE UPWARDS OF 4500 J/KG MLCAPE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE TX PANHANDLE, DRIVEN BY MID 60S SFC DEWPTS AND
RELATIVELY IMPRESSIVE MID LVL LAPSE RATES. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES
WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR 30 KTS TODAY, WITH LIMITED LOW LVL SPEED
SHEAR. THIS COMBINATION OF CAPE/SHEAR PAIRED WITH ANVIL LEVEL SR
WINDS OF AROUND 30 KTS SHOULD PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR A
FEW SLOW, SOUTHEAST-MOVING HP SUPERCELLS MIXED IN WITH SOME
MULTICELL CONVECTION. GIVEN GENERALLY WEAK LOW LVL FLOW AND STORM
MOTIONS THAT WON`T ENHANCE STORM RELATIVE INFLOW, THINK THE TORNADO
THREAT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED. HOWEVER, GIVEN LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND
SIGNIFICANT CAPE IN THE LOWEST 3KM, A TORNADO CERTAINLY COULD NOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT.  THE BIGGEST THREAT TODAY WILL BE LARGE HAIL
GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE HAIL CAPE.  THINK HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
BALLS AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR AREAS WITH GROUND COVERING
ACCUMULATIONS OF SMALLER HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS, THOUGH THE
STRONGEST STORMS COULD SPIT OUT SLIGHTLY LARGER HAIL. AS A SIDE
NOTE, STORM TOPS SHOULD BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE TODAY, WITH 50,000+ FOOT
TOPS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

THE MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WOULD BE EARLY
AFTERNOON (1-4PM) AS THE CAP WEAKENS AND A WEAK H5 WAVE CROSSES THE
PANHANDLES. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY STRATFORD DOWN TO
CLAUDE, MOST LIKELY NOT INCLUDING AMARILLO.

THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DON`T SCREAM FLASH FLOODING FROM A
TEXTBOOK STANDPOINT AS PRECIP EFFICIENCY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED,
SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND ANTECEDENT SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS COULD
CERTAINLY YIELD ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING IN THE ERN TX
PANHANDLE.

SIMPSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATED HOURLY GRIDS TO MATCH TRENDS FOR THE DAY. THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS IN THE IFR RANGE MAY MAKE IT TO THE AMA TAF SITE...SO HAVE
INSERTED A TEMPO GROUP THERE. THINKING RIGHT NOW IS THAT THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL NOT MAKE IT TO DHT OR GUY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK INTO
THE 14 TO 17 KNOT RANGE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THEY SHOULD
BACK SOME AND DECREASE DURING THE EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE GREATER CHANCES NEAR DHT AND GUY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE NOT MENTIONED THEM IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME AS
COVERAGE SHOULD BE PRETTY SCATTERED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

CHALLENGING FORECAST AHEAD WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF PERIODS OF
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EARLY
THIS MORNING CONVECTION WAS ONGOING IN A SMALL CLUSTER FROM THE
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE NORTHWARD INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
OTHER ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS NEW MEXICO. PRIMARY DRIVING FORCE FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ASIDE FROM DIABATIC
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
NOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS IS THE MOST APPARENT OF A
SERIES OF WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN RELATIVELY WEAK WESTERLY FLOW.
STORMS THAT OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN AT LEAST A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KNOTS
FAVORING STORM ORGANIZATION. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE
POSSIBLE WITH HAIL BEING THE MOST COMMON TYPE. ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST
HALF IS MOST FAVORED FOR DEVELOPMENT.

A MORE IMPACTFUL UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IN THE FORM OF A COMPACT CLOSED
LOW NOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
THROUGH TOMORROW. BY TOMORROW NIGHT MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME MORE OPEN AND PHASE SOMEWHAT WITH
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. NET RESULT WILL BE MEAN HEIGHT FALLS AND
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT NECESSITATING HIGHER PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FROM
ROUGHLY MID/LATE MORNING THURSDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. DURING THIS
TIME SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DETAILS BECOME INCREASINGLY BLURRY GIVEN
THE INHERENT NATURE OF DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE SMALL WAVES AND LARGER
SYNOPTIC SCALE DISCREPANCIES THAT EMERGE IN THE MODELS.
ADDITIONALLY...SMALLER SCALE DETAILS THAT ARE INFLUENCED BY THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION INCLUDING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
MESOSCALE BOUNDARY FORCING WILL BE A FACTOR. ALL OF THIS WILL BE
RESOLVED BETTER WITH TIME. FOR NOW HAVE RELEGATED HIGHER
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY TO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY AND EXPANDED/INCREASED THIS
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN ONE THIRD OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS SHOW ONE MORE DISTINCT SHORTWAVE IN BROAD TROUGH THAT MAY LEAD
TO INCREASED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND COOLER/DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN EVOLVING EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AT LEAST A BRIEF
PERIOD OF UPPER RIDGING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. INTRODUCTION OF
ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE FORECAST MAY BE NEEDED BY
TUESDAY IN LATER FORECAST ISSUENCES AS THE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND A
TROUGH EVOLVES IN THE WEST. MEAN CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW MAY BECOME
ESTABLISHED WITH A DEEPENING LEE SURFACE TROUGH AND SHARPENING
DRYLINE.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/18







000
FXUS64 KAMA 271712
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1212 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE BEFORE CONVECTION
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. HAVE INSERTED
MENTION OF VICINITY THUNDER AROUND 20Z FOR KAMA AND KGUY WHICH HAVE
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS BASED ON
ANTICIPATED INITIATION LOCATIONS. HAVE HELD OFF PREVAILING THUNDER AS
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IF CONVECTION WILL MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS.
SHOULD CONVECTION DIRECTLY IMPACT A TERMINAL KGUY HAS THE BEST CHANCE
FOLLOWED BY KAMA. KDHT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CONVECTION FREE UNTIL
AFTER 00Z OR EVEN 06Z. CONVECTION INCREASES IN AREA COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT AND HAVE HAVE GONE WITH PREVAILING SHOWERS FOR KAMA WITH
VICINITY THUNDER AROUND 10Z. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DEGRADE AS
CONVECTION APPROACHES THE TERMINALS AND HAVE STARTED A TREND OF LOWER
CEILINGS ESPECIALLY TOWARDS TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY
BUILDS TO LEVELS NOT SEEN AROUND THE PANHANDLES IN MAYBE A FEW
YEARS. WIND SHEAR WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER,
BUT IN SPITE OF LACKING SPEED SHEAR, FAVORABLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
SHOULD PROVE ENOUGH TO PROMOTE STORM ORGANIZATION THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE THAN ONE ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN
NOW AND TOMORROW MORNING, BUT THIS DISCUSSION WILL FOCUS ON THE
THREAT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM/RAP
INDICATE UPWARDS OF 4500 J/KG MLCAPE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE TX PANHANDLE, DRIVEN BY MID 60S SFC DEWPTS AND
RELATIVELY IMPRESSIVE MID LVL LAPSE RATES. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES
WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR 30 KTS TODAY, WITH LIMITED LOW LVL SPEED
SHEAR. THIS COMBINATION OF CAPE/SHEAR PAIRED WITH ANVIL LEVEL SR
WINDS OF AROUND 30 KTS SHOULD PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR A
FEW SLOW, SOUTHEAST-MOVING HP SUPERCELLS MIXED IN WITH SOME
MULTICELL CONVECTION. GIVEN GENERALLY WEAK LOW LVL FLOW AND STORM
MOTIONS THAT WON`T ENHANCE STORM RELATIVE INFLOW, THINK THE TORNADO
THREAT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED. HOWEVER, GIVEN LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND
SIGNIFICANT CAPE IN THE LOWEST 3KM, A TORNADO CERTAINLY COULD NOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT.  THE BIGGEST THREAT TODAY WILL BE LARGE HAIL
GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE HAIL CAPE.  THINK HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
BALLS AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR AREAS WITH GROUND COVERING
ACCUMULATIONS OF SMALLER HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS, THOUGH THE
STRONGEST STORMS COULD SPIT OUT SLIGHTLY LARGER HAIL. AS A SIDE
NOTE, STORM TOPS SHOULD BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE TODAY, WITH 50,000+ FOOT
TOPS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

THE MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WOULD BE EARLY
AFTERNOON (1-4PM) AS THE CAP WEAKENS AND A WEAK H5 WAVE CROSSES THE
PANHANDLES. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY STRATFORD DOWN TO
CLAUDE, MOST LIKELY NOT INCLUDING AMARILLO.

THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DON`T SCREAM FLASH FLOODING FROM A
TEXTBOOK STANDPOINT AS PRECIP EFFICIENCY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED,
SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND ANTECEDENT SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS COULD
CERTAINLY YIELD ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING IN THE ERN TX
PANHANDLE.

SIMPSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATED HOURLY GRIDS TO MATCH TRENDS FOR THE DAY. THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS IN THE IFR RANGE MAY MAKE IT TO THE AMA TAF SITE...SO HAVE
INSERTED A TEMPO GROUP THERE. THINKING RIGHT NOW IS THAT THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL NOT MAKE IT TO DHT OR GUY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK INTO
THE 14 TO 17 KNOT RANGE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THEY SHOULD
BACK SOME AND DECREASE DURING THE EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE GREATER CHANCES NEAR DHT AND GUY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE NOT MENTIONED THEM IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME AS
COVERAGE SHOULD BE PRETTY SCATTERED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

CHALLENGING FORECAST AHEAD WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF PERIODS OF
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EARLY
THIS MORNING CONVECTION WAS ONGOING IN A SMALL CLUSTER FROM THE
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE NORTHWARD INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
OTHER ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS NEW MEXICO. PRIMARY DRIVING FORCE FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ASIDE FROM DIABATIC
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
NOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS IS THE MOST APPARENT OF A
SERIES OF WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN RELATIVELY WEAK WESTERLY FLOW.
STORMS THAT OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN AT LEAST A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KNOTS
FAVORING STORM ORGANIZATION. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE
POSSIBLE WITH HAIL BEING THE MOST COMMON TYPE. ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST
HALF IS MOST FAVORED FOR DEVELOPMENT.

A MORE IMPACTFUL UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IN THE FORM OF A COMPACT CLOSED
LOW NOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
THROUGH TOMORROW. BY TOMORROW NIGHT MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME MORE OPEN AND PHASE SOMEWHAT WITH
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. NET RESULT WILL BE MEAN HEIGHT FALLS AND
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT NECESSITATING HIGHER PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FROM
ROUGHLY MID/LATE MORNING THURSDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. DURING THIS
TIME SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DETAILS BECOME INCREASINGLY BLURRY GIVEN
THE INHERENT NATURE OF DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE SMALL WAVES AND LARGER
SYNOPTIC SCALE DISCREPANCIES THAT EMERGE IN THE MODELS.
ADDITIONALLY...SMALLER SCALE DETAILS THAT ARE INFLUENCED BY THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION INCLUDING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
MESOSCALE BOUNDARY FORCING WILL BE A FACTOR. ALL OF THIS WILL BE
RESOLVED BETTER WITH TIME. FOR NOW HAVE RELEGATED HIGHER
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY TO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY AND EXPANDED/INCREASED THIS
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN ONE THIRD OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS SHOW ONE MORE DISTINCT SHORTWAVE IN BROAD TROUGH THAT MAY LEAD
TO INCREASED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND COOLER/DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN EVOLVING EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AT LEAST A BRIEF
PERIOD OF UPPER RIDGING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. INTRODUCTION OF
ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE FORECAST MAY BE NEEDED BY
TUESDAY IN LATER FORECAST ISSUENCES AS THE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND A
TROUGH EVOLVES IN THE WEST. MEAN CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW MAY BECOME
ESTABLISHED WITH A DEEPENING LEE SURFACE TROUGH AND SHARPENING
DRYLINE.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/18







000
FXUS64 KAMA 271712
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1212 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE BEFORE CONVECTION
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. HAVE INSERTED
MENTION OF VICINITY THUNDER AROUND 20Z FOR KAMA AND KGUY WHICH HAVE
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS BASED ON
ANTICIPATED INITIATION LOCATIONS. HAVE HELD OFF PREVAILING THUNDER AS
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IF CONVECTION WILL MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS.
SHOULD CONVECTION DIRECTLY IMPACT A TERMINAL KGUY HAS THE BEST CHANCE
FOLLOWED BY KAMA. KDHT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CONVECTION FREE UNTIL
AFTER 00Z OR EVEN 06Z. CONVECTION INCREASES IN AREA COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT AND HAVE HAVE GONE WITH PREVAILING SHOWERS FOR KAMA WITH
VICINITY THUNDER AROUND 10Z. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DEGRADE AS
CONVECTION APPROACHES THE TERMINALS AND HAVE STARTED A TREND OF LOWER
CEILINGS ESPECIALLY TOWARDS TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY
BUILDS TO LEVELS NOT SEEN AROUND THE PANHANDLES IN MAYBE A FEW
YEARS. WIND SHEAR WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER,
BUT IN SPITE OF LACKING SPEED SHEAR, FAVORABLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
SHOULD PROVE ENOUGH TO PROMOTE STORM ORGANIZATION THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE THAN ONE ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN
NOW AND TOMORROW MORNING, BUT THIS DISCUSSION WILL FOCUS ON THE
THREAT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM/RAP
INDICATE UPWARDS OF 4500 J/KG MLCAPE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE TX PANHANDLE, DRIVEN BY MID 60S SFC DEWPTS AND
RELATIVELY IMPRESSIVE MID LVL LAPSE RATES. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES
WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR 30 KTS TODAY, WITH LIMITED LOW LVL SPEED
SHEAR. THIS COMBINATION OF CAPE/SHEAR PAIRED WITH ANVIL LEVEL SR
WINDS OF AROUND 30 KTS SHOULD PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR A
FEW SLOW, SOUTHEAST-MOVING HP SUPERCELLS MIXED IN WITH SOME
MULTICELL CONVECTION. GIVEN GENERALLY WEAK LOW LVL FLOW AND STORM
MOTIONS THAT WON`T ENHANCE STORM RELATIVE INFLOW, THINK THE TORNADO
THREAT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED. HOWEVER, GIVEN LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND
SIGNIFICANT CAPE IN THE LOWEST 3KM, A TORNADO CERTAINLY COULD NOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT.  THE BIGGEST THREAT TODAY WILL BE LARGE HAIL
GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE HAIL CAPE.  THINK HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
BALLS AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR AREAS WITH GROUND COVERING
ACCUMULATIONS OF SMALLER HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS, THOUGH THE
STRONGEST STORMS COULD SPIT OUT SLIGHTLY LARGER HAIL. AS A SIDE
NOTE, STORM TOPS SHOULD BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE TODAY, WITH 50,000+ FOOT
TOPS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

THE MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WOULD BE EARLY
AFTERNOON (1-4PM) AS THE CAP WEAKENS AND A WEAK H5 WAVE CROSSES THE
PANHANDLES. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY STRATFORD DOWN TO
CLAUDE, MOST LIKELY NOT INCLUDING AMARILLO.

THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DON`T SCREAM FLASH FLOODING FROM A
TEXTBOOK STANDPOINT AS PRECIP EFFICIENCY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED,
SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND ANTECEDENT SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS COULD
CERTAINLY YIELD ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING IN THE ERN TX
PANHANDLE.

SIMPSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATED HOURLY GRIDS TO MATCH TRENDS FOR THE DAY. THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS IN THE IFR RANGE MAY MAKE IT TO THE AMA TAF SITE...SO HAVE
INSERTED A TEMPO GROUP THERE. THINKING RIGHT NOW IS THAT THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL NOT MAKE IT TO DHT OR GUY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK INTO
THE 14 TO 17 KNOT RANGE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THEY SHOULD
BACK SOME AND DECREASE DURING THE EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE GREATER CHANCES NEAR DHT AND GUY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE NOT MENTIONED THEM IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME AS
COVERAGE SHOULD BE PRETTY SCATTERED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

CHALLENGING FORECAST AHEAD WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF PERIODS OF
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EARLY
THIS MORNING CONVECTION WAS ONGOING IN A SMALL CLUSTER FROM THE
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE NORTHWARD INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
OTHER ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS NEW MEXICO. PRIMARY DRIVING FORCE FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ASIDE FROM DIABATIC
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
NOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS IS THE MOST APPARENT OF A
SERIES OF WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN RELATIVELY WEAK WESTERLY FLOW.
STORMS THAT OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN AT LEAST A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KNOTS
FAVORING STORM ORGANIZATION. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE
POSSIBLE WITH HAIL BEING THE MOST COMMON TYPE. ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST
HALF IS MOST FAVORED FOR DEVELOPMENT.

A MORE IMPACTFUL UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IN THE FORM OF A COMPACT CLOSED
LOW NOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
THROUGH TOMORROW. BY TOMORROW NIGHT MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME MORE OPEN AND PHASE SOMEWHAT WITH
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. NET RESULT WILL BE MEAN HEIGHT FALLS AND
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT NECESSITATING HIGHER PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FROM
ROUGHLY MID/LATE MORNING THURSDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. DURING THIS
TIME SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DETAILS BECOME INCREASINGLY BLURRY GIVEN
THE INHERENT NATURE OF DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE SMALL WAVES AND LARGER
SYNOPTIC SCALE DISCREPANCIES THAT EMERGE IN THE MODELS.
ADDITIONALLY...SMALLER SCALE DETAILS THAT ARE INFLUENCED BY THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION INCLUDING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
MESOSCALE BOUNDARY FORCING WILL BE A FACTOR. ALL OF THIS WILL BE
RESOLVED BETTER WITH TIME. FOR NOW HAVE RELEGATED HIGHER
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY TO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY AND EXPANDED/INCREASED THIS
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN ONE THIRD OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS SHOW ONE MORE DISTINCT SHORTWAVE IN BROAD TROUGH THAT MAY LEAD
TO INCREASED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND COOLER/DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN EVOLVING EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AT LEAST A BRIEF
PERIOD OF UPPER RIDGING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. INTRODUCTION OF
ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE FORECAST MAY BE NEEDED BY
TUESDAY IN LATER FORECAST ISSUENCES AS THE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND A
TROUGH EVOLVES IN THE WEST. MEAN CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW MAY BECOME
ESTABLISHED WITH A DEEPENING LEE SURFACE TROUGH AND SHARPENING
DRYLINE.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/18






000
FXUS64 KAMA 271633
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1133 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY
BUILDS TO LEVELS NOT SEEN AROUND THE PANHANDLES IN MAYBE A FEW
YEARS. WIND SHEAR WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER,
BUT IN SPITE OF LACKING SPEED SHEAR, FAVORABLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
SHOULD PROVE ENOUGH TO PROMOTE STORM ORGANIZATION THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE THAN ONE ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN
NOW AND TOMORROW MORNING, BUT THIS DISCUSSION WILL FOCUS ON THE
THREAT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM/RAP
INDICATE UPWARDS OF 4500 J/KG MLCAPE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE TX PANHANDLE, DRIVEN BY MID 60S SFC DEWPTS AND
RELATIVELY IMPRESSIVE MID LVL LAPSE RATES. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES
WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR 30 KTS TODAY, WITH LIMITED LOW LVL SPEED
SHEAR. THIS COMBINATION OF CAPE/SHEAR PAIRED WITH ANVIL LEVEL SR
WINDS OF AROUND 30 KTS SHOULD PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR A
FEW SLOW, SOUTHEAST-MOVING HP SUPERCELLS MIXED IN WITH SOME
MULTICELL CONVECTION. GIVEN GENERALLY WEAK LOW LVL FLOW AND STORM
MOTIONS THAT WON`T ENHANCE STORM RELATIVE INFLOW, THINK THE TORNADO
THREAT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED. HOWEVER, GIVEN LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND
SIGNIFICANT CAPE IN THE LOWEST 3KM, A TORNADO CERTAINLY COULD NOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT.  THE BIGGEST THREAT TODAY WILL BE LARGE HAIL
GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE HAIL CAPE.  THINK HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
BALLS AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR AREAS WITH GROUND COVERING
ACCUMULATIONS OF SMALLER HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS, THOUGH THE
STRONGEST STORMS COULD SPIT OUT SLIGHTLY LARGER HAIL. AS A SIDE
NOTE, STORM TOPS SHOULD BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE TODAY, WITH 50,000+ FOOT
TOPS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

THE MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WOULD BE EARLY
AFTERNOON (1-4PM) AS THE CAP WEAKENS AND A WEAK H5 WAVE CROSSES THE
PANHANDLES. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY STRATFORD DOWN TO
CLAUDE, MOST LIKELY NOT INCLUDING AMARILLO.

THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DON`T SCREAM FLASH FLOODING FROM A
TEXTBOOK STANDPOINT AS PRECIP EFFICIENCY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED,
SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND ANTECEDENT SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS COULD
CERTAINLY YIELD ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING IN THE ERN TX
PANHANDLE.

SIMPSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATED HOURLY GRIDS TO MATCH TRENDS FOR THE DAY. THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS IN THE IFR RANGE MAY MAKE IT TO THE AMA TAF SITE...SO HAVE
INSERTED A TEMPO GROUP THERE. THINKING RIGHT NOW IS THAT THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL NOT MAKE IT TO DHT OR GUY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK INTO
THE 14 TO 17 KNOT RANGE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THEY SHOULD
BACK SOME AND DECREASE DURING THE EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE GREATER CHANCES NEAR DHT AND GUY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE NOT MENTIONED THEM IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME AS
COVERAGE SHOULD BE PRETTY SCATTERED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

CHALLENGING FORECAST AHEAD WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF PERIODS OF
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EARLY
THIS MORNING CONVECTION WAS ONGOING IN A SMALL CLUSTER FROM THE
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE NORTHWARD INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
OTHER ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS NEW MEXICO. PRIMARY DRIVING FORCE FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ASIDE FROM DIABATIC
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
NOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS IS THE MOST APPARENT OF A
SERIES OF WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN RELATIVELY WEAK WESTERLY FLOW.
STORMS THAT OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN AT LEAST A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KNOTS
FAVORING STORM ORGANIZATION. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE
POSSIBLE WITH HAIL BEING THE MOST COMMON TYPE. ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST
HALF IS MOST FAVORED FOR DEVELOPMENT.

A MORE IMPACTFUL UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IN THE FORM OF A COMPACT CLOSED
LOW NOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
THROUGH TOMORROW. BY TOMORROW NIGHT MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME MORE OPEN AND PHASE SOMEWHAT WITH
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. NET RESULT WILL BE MEAN HEIGHT FALLS AND
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT NECESSITATING HIGHER PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FROM
ROUGHLY MID/LATE MORNING THURSDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. DURING THIS
TIME SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DETAILS BECOME INCREASINGLY BLURRY GIVEN
THE INHERENT NATURE OF DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE SMALL WAVES AND LARGER
SYNOPTIC SCALE DISCREPANCIES THAT EMERGE IN THE MODELS.
ADDITIONALLY...SMALLER SCALE DETAILS THAT ARE INFLUENCED BY THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION INCLUDING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
MESOSCALE BOUNDARY FORCING WILL BE A FACTOR. ALL OF THIS WILL BE
RESOLVED BETTER WITH TIME. FOR NOW HAVE RELEGATED HIGHER
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY TO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY AND EXPANDED/INCREASED THIS
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN ONE THIRD OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS SHOW ONE MORE DISTINCT SHORTWAVE IN BROAD TROUGH THAT MAY LEAD
TO INCREASED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND COOLER/DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN EVOLVING EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AT LEAST A BRIEF
PERIOD OF UPPER RIDGING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. INTRODUCTION OF
ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE FORECAST MAY BE NEEDED BY
TUESDAY IN LATER FORECAST ISSUENCES AS THE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND A
TROUGH EVOLVES IN THE WEST. MEAN CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW MAY BECOME
ESTABLISHED WITH A DEEPENING LEE SURFACE TROUGH AND SHARPENING
DRYLINE.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/18







000
FXUS64 KAMA 271633
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1133 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY
BUILDS TO LEVELS NOT SEEN AROUND THE PANHANDLES IN MAYBE A FEW
YEARS. WIND SHEAR WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER,
BUT IN SPITE OF LACKING SPEED SHEAR, FAVORABLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
SHOULD PROVE ENOUGH TO PROMOTE STORM ORGANIZATION THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE THAN ONE ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN
NOW AND TOMORROW MORNING, BUT THIS DISCUSSION WILL FOCUS ON THE
THREAT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM/RAP
INDICATE UPWARDS OF 4500 J/KG MLCAPE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE TX PANHANDLE, DRIVEN BY MID 60S SFC DEWPTS AND
RELATIVELY IMPRESSIVE MID LVL LAPSE RATES. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES
WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR 30 KTS TODAY, WITH LIMITED LOW LVL SPEED
SHEAR. THIS COMBINATION OF CAPE/SHEAR PAIRED WITH ANVIL LEVEL SR
WINDS OF AROUND 30 KTS SHOULD PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR A
FEW SLOW, SOUTHEAST-MOVING HP SUPERCELLS MIXED IN WITH SOME
MULTICELL CONVECTION. GIVEN GENERALLY WEAK LOW LVL FLOW AND STORM
MOTIONS THAT WON`T ENHANCE STORM RELATIVE INFLOW, THINK THE TORNADO
THREAT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED. HOWEVER, GIVEN LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND
SIGNIFICANT CAPE IN THE LOWEST 3KM, A TORNADO CERTAINLY COULD NOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT.  THE BIGGEST THREAT TODAY WILL BE LARGE HAIL
GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE HAIL CAPE.  THINK HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
BALLS AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR AREAS WITH GROUND COVERING
ACCUMULATIONS OF SMALLER HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS, THOUGH THE
STRONGEST STORMS COULD SPIT OUT SLIGHTLY LARGER HAIL. AS A SIDE
NOTE, STORM TOPS SHOULD BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE TODAY, WITH 50,000+ FOOT
TOPS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

THE MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WOULD BE EARLY
AFTERNOON (1-4PM) AS THE CAP WEAKENS AND A WEAK H5 WAVE CROSSES THE
PANHANDLES. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY STRATFORD DOWN TO
CLAUDE, MOST LIKELY NOT INCLUDING AMARILLO.

THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DON`T SCREAM FLASH FLOODING FROM A
TEXTBOOK STANDPOINT AS PRECIP EFFICIENCY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED,
SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND ANTECEDENT SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS COULD
CERTAINLY YIELD ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING IN THE ERN TX
PANHANDLE.

SIMPSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATED HOURLY GRIDS TO MATCH TRENDS FOR THE DAY. THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS IN THE IFR RANGE MAY MAKE IT TO THE AMA TAF SITE...SO HAVE
INSERTED A TEMPO GROUP THERE. THINKING RIGHT NOW IS THAT THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL NOT MAKE IT TO DHT OR GUY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK INTO
THE 14 TO 17 KNOT RANGE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THEY SHOULD
BACK SOME AND DECREASE DURING THE EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE GREATER CHANCES NEAR DHT AND GUY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE NOT MENTIONED THEM IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME AS
COVERAGE SHOULD BE PRETTY SCATTERED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

CHALLENGING FORECAST AHEAD WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF PERIODS OF
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EARLY
THIS MORNING CONVECTION WAS ONGOING IN A SMALL CLUSTER FROM THE
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE NORTHWARD INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
OTHER ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS NEW MEXICO. PRIMARY DRIVING FORCE FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ASIDE FROM DIABATIC
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
NOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS IS THE MOST APPARENT OF A
SERIES OF WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN RELATIVELY WEAK WESTERLY FLOW.
STORMS THAT OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN AT LEAST A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KNOTS
FAVORING STORM ORGANIZATION. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE
POSSIBLE WITH HAIL BEING THE MOST COMMON TYPE. ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST
HALF IS MOST FAVORED FOR DEVELOPMENT.

A MORE IMPACTFUL UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IN THE FORM OF A COMPACT CLOSED
LOW NOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
THROUGH TOMORROW. BY TOMORROW NIGHT MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME MORE OPEN AND PHASE SOMEWHAT WITH
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. NET RESULT WILL BE MEAN HEIGHT FALLS AND
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT NECESSITATING HIGHER PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FROM
ROUGHLY MID/LATE MORNING THURSDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. DURING THIS
TIME SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DETAILS BECOME INCREASINGLY BLURRY GIVEN
THE INHERENT NATURE OF DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE SMALL WAVES AND LARGER
SYNOPTIC SCALE DISCREPANCIES THAT EMERGE IN THE MODELS.
ADDITIONALLY...SMALLER SCALE DETAILS THAT ARE INFLUENCED BY THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION INCLUDING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
MESOSCALE BOUNDARY FORCING WILL BE A FACTOR. ALL OF THIS WILL BE
RESOLVED BETTER WITH TIME. FOR NOW HAVE RELEGATED HIGHER
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY TO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY AND EXPANDED/INCREASED THIS
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN ONE THIRD OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS SHOW ONE MORE DISTINCT SHORTWAVE IN BROAD TROUGH THAT MAY LEAD
TO INCREASED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND COOLER/DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN EVOLVING EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AT LEAST A BRIEF
PERIOD OF UPPER RIDGING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. INTRODUCTION OF
ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE FORECAST MAY BE NEEDED BY
TUESDAY IN LATER FORECAST ISSUENCES AS THE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND A
TROUGH EVOLVES IN THE WEST. MEAN CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW MAY BECOME
ESTABLISHED WITH A DEEPENING LEE SURFACE TROUGH AND SHARPENING
DRYLINE.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/18






000
FXUS64 KAMA 271633
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1133 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY
BUILDS TO LEVELS NOT SEEN AROUND THE PANHANDLES IN MAYBE A FEW
YEARS. WIND SHEAR WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER,
BUT IN SPITE OF LACKING SPEED SHEAR, FAVORABLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
SHOULD PROVE ENOUGH TO PROMOTE STORM ORGANIZATION THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE THAN ONE ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN
NOW AND TOMORROW MORNING, BUT THIS DISCUSSION WILL FOCUS ON THE
THREAT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM/RAP
INDICATE UPWARDS OF 4500 J/KG MLCAPE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE TX PANHANDLE, DRIVEN BY MID 60S SFC DEWPTS AND
RELATIVELY IMPRESSIVE MID LVL LAPSE RATES. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES
WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR 30 KTS TODAY, WITH LIMITED LOW LVL SPEED
SHEAR. THIS COMBINATION OF CAPE/SHEAR PAIRED WITH ANVIL LEVEL SR
WINDS OF AROUND 30 KTS SHOULD PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR A
FEW SLOW, SOUTHEAST-MOVING HP SUPERCELLS MIXED IN WITH SOME
MULTICELL CONVECTION. GIVEN GENERALLY WEAK LOW LVL FLOW AND STORM
MOTIONS THAT WON`T ENHANCE STORM RELATIVE INFLOW, THINK THE TORNADO
THREAT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED. HOWEVER, GIVEN LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND
SIGNIFICANT CAPE IN THE LOWEST 3KM, A TORNADO CERTAINLY COULD NOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT.  THE BIGGEST THREAT TODAY WILL BE LARGE HAIL
GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE HAIL CAPE.  THINK HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
BALLS AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR AREAS WITH GROUND COVERING
ACCUMULATIONS OF SMALLER HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS, THOUGH THE
STRONGEST STORMS COULD SPIT OUT SLIGHTLY LARGER HAIL. AS A SIDE
NOTE, STORM TOPS SHOULD BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE TODAY, WITH 50,000+ FOOT
TOPS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

THE MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WOULD BE EARLY
AFTERNOON (1-4PM) AS THE CAP WEAKENS AND A WEAK H5 WAVE CROSSES THE
PANHANDLES. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY STRATFORD DOWN TO
CLAUDE, MOST LIKELY NOT INCLUDING AMARILLO.

THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DON`T SCREAM FLASH FLOODING FROM A
TEXTBOOK STANDPOINT AS PRECIP EFFICIENCY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED,
SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND ANTECEDENT SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS COULD
CERTAINLY YIELD ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING IN THE ERN TX
PANHANDLE.

SIMPSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATED HOURLY GRIDS TO MATCH TRENDS FOR THE DAY. THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS IN THE IFR RANGE MAY MAKE IT TO THE AMA TAF SITE...SO HAVE
INSERTED A TEMPO GROUP THERE. THINKING RIGHT NOW IS THAT THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL NOT MAKE IT TO DHT OR GUY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK INTO
THE 14 TO 17 KNOT RANGE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THEY SHOULD
BACK SOME AND DECREASE DURING THE EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE GREATER CHANCES NEAR DHT AND GUY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE NOT MENTIONED THEM IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME AS
COVERAGE SHOULD BE PRETTY SCATTERED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

CHALLENGING FORECAST AHEAD WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF PERIODS OF
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EARLY
THIS MORNING CONVECTION WAS ONGOING IN A SMALL CLUSTER FROM THE
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE NORTHWARD INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
OTHER ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS NEW MEXICO. PRIMARY DRIVING FORCE FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ASIDE FROM DIABATIC
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
NOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS IS THE MOST APPARENT OF A
SERIES OF WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN RELATIVELY WEAK WESTERLY FLOW.
STORMS THAT OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN AT LEAST A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KNOTS
FAVORING STORM ORGANIZATION. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE
POSSIBLE WITH HAIL BEING THE MOST COMMON TYPE. ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST
HALF IS MOST FAVORED FOR DEVELOPMENT.

A MORE IMPACTFUL UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IN THE FORM OF A COMPACT CLOSED
LOW NOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
THROUGH TOMORROW. BY TOMORROW NIGHT MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME MORE OPEN AND PHASE SOMEWHAT WITH
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. NET RESULT WILL BE MEAN HEIGHT FALLS AND
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT NECESSITATING HIGHER PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FROM
ROUGHLY MID/LATE MORNING THURSDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. DURING THIS
TIME SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DETAILS BECOME INCREASINGLY BLURRY GIVEN
THE INHERENT NATURE OF DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE SMALL WAVES AND LARGER
SYNOPTIC SCALE DISCREPANCIES THAT EMERGE IN THE MODELS.
ADDITIONALLY...SMALLER SCALE DETAILS THAT ARE INFLUENCED BY THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION INCLUDING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
MESOSCALE BOUNDARY FORCING WILL BE A FACTOR. ALL OF THIS WILL BE
RESOLVED BETTER WITH TIME. FOR NOW HAVE RELEGATED HIGHER
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY TO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY AND EXPANDED/INCREASED THIS
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN ONE THIRD OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS SHOW ONE MORE DISTINCT SHORTWAVE IN BROAD TROUGH THAT MAY LEAD
TO INCREASED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND COOLER/DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN EVOLVING EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AT LEAST A BRIEF
PERIOD OF UPPER RIDGING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. INTRODUCTION OF
ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE FORECAST MAY BE NEEDED BY
TUESDAY IN LATER FORECAST ISSUENCES AS THE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND A
TROUGH EVOLVES IN THE WEST. MEAN CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW MAY BECOME
ESTABLISHED WITH A DEEPENING LEE SURFACE TROUGH AND SHARPENING
DRYLINE.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/18







000
FXUS64 KAMA 271633
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1133 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY
BUILDS TO LEVELS NOT SEEN AROUND THE PANHANDLES IN MAYBE A FEW
YEARS. WIND SHEAR WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER,
BUT IN SPITE OF LACKING SPEED SHEAR, FAVORABLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
SHOULD PROVE ENOUGH TO PROMOTE STORM ORGANIZATION THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE THAN ONE ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN
NOW AND TOMORROW MORNING, BUT THIS DISCUSSION WILL FOCUS ON THE
THREAT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM/RAP
INDICATE UPWARDS OF 4500 J/KG MLCAPE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE TX PANHANDLE, DRIVEN BY MID 60S SFC DEWPTS AND
RELATIVELY IMPRESSIVE MID LVL LAPSE RATES. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES
WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR 30 KTS TODAY, WITH LIMITED LOW LVL SPEED
SHEAR. THIS COMBINATION OF CAPE/SHEAR PAIRED WITH ANVIL LEVEL SR
WINDS OF AROUND 30 KTS SHOULD PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR A
FEW SLOW, SOUTHEAST-MOVING HP SUPERCELLS MIXED IN WITH SOME
MULTICELL CONVECTION. GIVEN GENERALLY WEAK LOW LVL FLOW AND STORM
MOTIONS THAT WON`T ENHANCE STORM RELATIVE INFLOW, THINK THE TORNADO
THREAT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED. HOWEVER, GIVEN LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND
SIGNIFICANT CAPE IN THE LOWEST 3KM, A TORNADO CERTAINLY COULD NOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT.  THE BIGGEST THREAT TODAY WILL BE LARGE HAIL
GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE HAIL CAPE.  THINK HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
BALLS AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR AREAS WITH GROUND COVERING
ACCUMULATIONS OF SMALLER HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS, THOUGH THE
STRONGEST STORMS COULD SPIT OUT SLIGHTLY LARGER HAIL. AS A SIDE
NOTE, STORM TOPS SHOULD BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE TODAY, WITH 50,000+ FOOT
TOPS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

THE MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WOULD BE EARLY
AFTERNOON (1-4PM) AS THE CAP WEAKENS AND A WEAK H5 WAVE CROSSES THE
PANHANDLES. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY STRATFORD DOWN TO
CLAUDE, MOST LIKELY NOT INCLUDING AMARILLO.

THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DON`T SCREAM FLASH FLOODING FROM A
TEXTBOOK STANDPOINT AS PRECIP EFFICIENCY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED,
SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND ANTECEDENT SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS COULD
CERTAINLY YIELD ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING IN THE ERN TX
PANHANDLE.

SIMPSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATED HOURLY GRIDS TO MATCH TRENDS FOR THE DAY. THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS IN THE IFR RANGE MAY MAKE IT TO THE AMA TAF SITE...SO HAVE
INSERTED A TEMPO GROUP THERE. THINKING RIGHT NOW IS THAT THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL NOT MAKE IT TO DHT OR GUY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK INTO
THE 14 TO 17 KNOT RANGE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THEY SHOULD
BACK SOME AND DECREASE DURING THE EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE GREATER CHANCES NEAR DHT AND GUY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE NOT MENTIONED THEM IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME AS
COVERAGE SHOULD BE PRETTY SCATTERED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

CHALLENGING FORECAST AHEAD WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF PERIODS OF
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EARLY
THIS MORNING CONVECTION WAS ONGOING IN A SMALL CLUSTER FROM THE
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE NORTHWARD INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
OTHER ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS NEW MEXICO. PRIMARY DRIVING FORCE FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ASIDE FROM DIABATIC
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
NOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS IS THE MOST APPARENT OF A
SERIES OF WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN RELATIVELY WEAK WESTERLY FLOW.
STORMS THAT OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN AT LEAST A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KNOTS
FAVORING STORM ORGANIZATION. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE
POSSIBLE WITH HAIL BEING THE MOST COMMON TYPE. ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST
HALF IS MOST FAVORED FOR DEVELOPMENT.

A MORE IMPACTFUL UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IN THE FORM OF A COMPACT CLOSED
LOW NOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
THROUGH TOMORROW. BY TOMORROW NIGHT MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME MORE OPEN AND PHASE SOMEWHAT WITH
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. NET RESULT WILL BE MEAN HEIGHT FALLS AND
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT NECESSITATING HIGHER PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FROM
ROUGHLY MID/LATE MORNING THURSDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. DURING THIS
TIME SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DETAILS BECOME INCREASINGLY BLURRY GIVEN
THE INHERENT NATURE OF DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE SMALL WAVES AND LARGER
SYNOPTIC SCALE DISCREPANCIES THAT EMERGE IN THE MODELS.
ADDITIONALLY...SMALLER SCALE DETAILS THAT ARE INFLUENCED BY THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION INCLUDING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
MESOSCALE BOUNDARY FORCING WILL BE A FACTOR. ALL OF THIS WILL BE
RESOLVED BETTER WITH TIME. FOR NOW HAVE RELEGATED HIGHER
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY TO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY AND EXPANDED/INCREASED THIS
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN ONE THIRD OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS SHOW ONE MORE DISTINCT SHORTWAVE IN BROAD TROUGH THAT MAY LEAD
TO INCREASED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND COOLER/DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN EVOLVING EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AT LEAST A BRIEF
PERIOD OF UPPER RIDGING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. INTRODUCTION OF
ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE FORECAST MAY BE NEEDED BY
TUESDAY IN LATER FORECAST ISSUENCES AS THE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND A
TROUGH EVOLVES IN THE WEST. MEAN CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW MAY BECOME
ESTABLISHED WITH A DEEPENING LEE SURFACE TROUGH AND SHARPENING
DRYLINE.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/18






000
FXUS64 KAMA 271533
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1033 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED HOURLY GRIDS TO MATCH TRENDS FOR THE DAY. THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS IN THE IFR RANGE MAY MAKE IT TO THE AMA TAF SITE...SO HAVE
INSERTED A TEMPO GROUP THERE. THINKING RIGHT NOW IS THAT THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL NOT MAKE IT TO DHT OR GUY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK INTO
THE 14 TO 17 KNOT RANGE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THEY SHOULD
BACK SOME AND DECREASE DURING THE EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE GREATER CHANCES NEAR DHT AND GUY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE NOT MENTIONED THEM IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME AS
COVERAGE SHOULD BE PRETTY SCATTERED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

CHALLENGING FORECAST AHEAD WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF PERIODS OF
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EARLY
THIS MORNING CONVECTION WAS ONGOING IN A SMALL CLUSTER FROM THE
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE NORTHWARD INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
OTHER ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS NEW MEXICO. PRIMARY DRIVING FORCE FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ASIDE FROM DIABATIC
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
NOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS IS THE MOST APPARENT OF A
SERIES OF WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN RELATIVELY WEAK WESTERLY FLOW.
STORMS THAT OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN AT LEAST A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KNOTS
FAVORING STORM ORGANIZATION. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE
POSSIBLE WITH HAIL BEING THE MOST COMMON TYPE. ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST
HALF IS MOST FAVORED FOR DEVELOPMENT.

A MORE IMPACTFUL UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IN THE FORM OF A COMPACT CLOSED
LOW NOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
THROUGH TOMORROW. BY TOMORROW NIGHT MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME MORE OPEN AND PHASE SOMEWHAT WITH
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. NET RESULT WILL BE MEAN HEIGHT FALLS AND
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT NECESSITATING HIGHER PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FROM
ROUGHLY MID/LATE MORNING THURSDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. DURING THIS
TIME SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DETAILS BECOME INCREASINGLY BLURRY GIVEN
THE INHERENT NATURE OF DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE SMALL WAVES AND LARGER
SYNOPTIC SCALE DISCREPANCIES THAT EMERGE IN THE MODELS.
ADDITIONALLY...SMALLER SCALE DETAILS THAT ARE INFLUENCED BY THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION INCLUDING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
MESOSCALE BOUNDARY FORCING WILL BE A FACTOR. ALL OF THIS WILL BE
RESOLVED BETTER WITH TIME. FOR NOW HAVE RELEGATED HIGHER
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY TO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY AND EXPANDED/INCREASED THIS
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN ONE THIRD OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS SHOW ONE MORE DISTINCT SHORTWAVE IN BROAD TROUGH THAT MAY LEAD
TO INCREASED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND COOLER/DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN EVOLVING EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AT LEAST A BRIEF
PERIOD OF UPPER RIDGING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. INTRODUCTION OF
ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE FORECAST MAY BE NEEDED BY
TUESDAY IN LATER FORECAST ISSUENCES AS THE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND A
TROUGH EVOLVES IN THE WEST. MEAN CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW MAY BECOME
ESTABLISHED WITH A DEEPENING LEE SURFACE TROUGH AND SHARPENING
DRYLINE.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

16/18






000
FXUS64 KAMA 271533
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1033 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED HOURLY GRIDS TO MATCH TRENDS FOR THE DAY. THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS IN THE IFR RANGE MAY MAKE IT TO THE AMA TAF SITE...SO HAVE
INSERTED A TEMPO GROUP THERE. THINKING RIGHT NOW IS THAT THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL NOT MAKE IT TO DHT OR GUY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK INTO
THE 14 TO 17 KNOT RANGE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THEY SHOULD
BACK SOME AND DECREASE DURING THE EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE GREATER CHANCES NEAR DHT AND GUY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE NOT MENTIONED THEM IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME AS
COVERAGE SHOULD BE PRETTY SCATTERED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

CHALLENGING FORECAST AHEAD WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF PERIODS OF
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EARLY
THIS MORNING CONVECTION WAS ONGOING IN A SMALL CLUSTER FROM THE
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE NORTHWARD INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
OTHER ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS NEW MEXICO. PRIMARY DRIVING FORCE FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ASIDE FROM DIABATIC
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
NOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS IS THE MOST APPARENT OF A
SERIES OF WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN RELATIVELY WEAK WESTERLY FLOW.
STORMS THAT OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN AT LEAST A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KNOTS
FAVORING STORM ORGANIZATION. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE
POSSIBLE WITH HAIL BEING THE MOST COMMON TYPE. ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST
HALF IS MOST FAVORED FOR DEVELOPMENT.

A MORE IMPACTFUL UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IN THE FORM OF A COMPACT CLOSED
LOW NOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
THROUGH TOMORROW. BY TOMORROW NIGHT MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME MORE OPEN AND PHASE SOMEWHAT WITH
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. NET RESULT WILL BE MEAN HEIGHT FALLS AND
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT NECESSITATING HIGHER PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FROM
ROUGHLY MID/LATE MORNING THURSDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. DURING THIS
TIME SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DETAILS BECOME INCREASINGLY BLURRY GIVEN
THE INHERENT NATURE OF DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE SMALL WAVES AND LARGER
SYNOPTIC SCALE DISCREPANCIES THAT EMERGE IN THE MODELS.
ADDITIONALLY...SMALLER SCALE DETAILS THAT ARE INFLUENCED BY THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION INCLUDING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
MESOSCALE BOUNDARY FORCING WILL BE A FACTOR. ALL OF THIS WILL BE
RESOLVED BETTER WITH TIME. FOR NOW HAVE RELEGATED HIGHER
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY TO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY AND EXPANDED/INCREASED THIS
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN ONE THIRD OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS SHOW ONE MORE DISTINCT SHORTWAVE IN BROAD TROUGH THAT MAY LEAD
TO INCREASED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND COOLER/DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN EVOLVING EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AT LEAST A BRIEF
PERIOD OF UPPER RIDGING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. INTRODUCTION OF
ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE FORECAST MAY BE NEEDED BY
TUESDAY IN LATER FORECAST ISSUENCES AS THE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND A
TROUGH EVOLVES IN THE WEST. MEAN CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW MAY BECOME
ESTABLISHED WITH A DEEPENING LEE SURFACE TROUGH AND SHARPENING
DRYLINE.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

16/18







000
FXUS64 KAMA 271122 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
622 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS IN THE IFR RANGE MAY MAKE IT TO THE AMA TAF SITE...SO HAVE
INSERTED A TEMPO GROUP THERE. THINKING RIGHT NOW IS THAT THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL NOT MAKE IT TO DHT OR GUY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK INTO
THE 14 TO 17 KNOT RANGE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THEY SHOULD
BACK SOME AND DECREASE DURING THE EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE GREATER CHANCES NEAR DHT AND GUY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE NOT MENTIONED THEM IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME AS
COVERAGE SHOULD BE PRETTY SCATTERED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

CHALLENGING FORECAST AHEAD WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF PERIODS OF
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EARLY
THIS MORNING CONVECTION WAS ONGOING IN A SMALL CLUSTER FROM THE
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE NORTHWARD INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
OTHER ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS NEW MEXICO. PRIMARY DRIVING FORCE FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ASIDE FROM DIABATIC
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
NOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS IS THE MOST APPARENT OF A
SERIES OF WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN RELATIVELY WEAK WESTERLY FLOW.
STORMS THAT OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN AT LEAST A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KNOTS
FAVORING STORM ORGANIZATION. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE
POSSIBLE WITH HAIL BEING THE MOST COMMON TYPE. ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST
HALF IS MOST FAVORED FOR DEVELOPMENT.

A MORE IMPACTFUL UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IN THE FORM OF A COMPACT CLOSED
LOW NOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
THROUGH TOMORROW. BY TOMORROW NIGHT MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME MORE OPEN AND PHASE SOMEWHAT WITH
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. NET RESULT WILL BE MEAN HEIGHT FALLS AND
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT NECESSITATING HIGHER PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FROM
ROUGHLY MID/LATE MORNING THURSDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. DURING THIS
TIME SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DETAILS BECOME INCREASINGLY BLURRY GIVEN
THE INHERENT NATURE OF DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE SMALL WAVES AND LARGER
SYNOPTIC SCALE DISCREPANCIES THAT EMERGE IN THE MODELS.
ADDITIONALLY...SMALLER SCALE DETAILS THAT ARE INFLUENCED BY THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION INCLUDING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
MESOSCALE BOUNDARY FORCING WILL BE A FACTOR. ALL OF THIS WILL BE
RESOLVED BETTER WITH TIME. FOR NOW HAVE RELEGATED HIGHER
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY TO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY AND EXPANDED/INCREASED THIS
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN ONE THIRD OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS SHOW ONE MORE DISTINCT SHORTWAVE IN BROAD TROUGH THAT MAY LEAD
TO INCREASED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND COOLER/DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN EVOLVING EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AT LEAST A BRIEF
PERIOD OF UPPER RIDGING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. INTRODUCTION OF
ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE FORECAST MAY BE NEEDED BY
TUESDAY IN LATER FORECAST ISSUENCES AS THE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND A
TROUGH EVOLVES IN THE WEST. MEAN CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW MAY BECOME
ESTABLISHED WITH A DEEPENING LEE SURFACE TROUGH AND SHARPENING
DRYLINE.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/17






000
FXUS64 KAMA 271122 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
622 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS IN THE IFR RANGE MAY MAKE IT TO THE AMA TAF SITE...SO HAVE
INSERTED A TEMPO GROUP THERE. THINKING RIGHT NOW IS THAT THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL NOT MAKE IT TO DHT OR GUY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK INTO
THE 14 TO 17 KNOT RANGE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THEY SHOULD
BACK SOME AND DECREASE DURING THE EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE GREATER CHANCES NEAR DHT AND GUY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE NOT MENTIONED THEM IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME AS
COVERAGE SHOULD BE PRETTY SCATTERED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

CHALLENGING FORECAST AHEAD WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF PERIODS OF
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EARLY
THIS MORNING CONVECTION WAS ONGOING IN A SMALL CLUSTER FROM THE
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE NORTHWARD INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
OTHER ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS NEW MEXICO. PRIMARY DRIVING FORCE FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ASIDE FROM DIABATIC
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
NOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS IS THE MOST APPARENT OF A
SERIES OF WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN RELATIVELY WEAK WESTERLY FLOW.
STORMS THAT OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN AT LEAST A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KNOTS
FAVORING STORM ORGANIZATION. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE
POSSIBLE WITH HAIL BEING THE MOST COMMON TYPE. ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST
HALF IS MOST FAVORED FOR DEVELOPMENT.

A MORE IMPACTFUL UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IN THE FORM OF A COMPACT CLOSED
LOW NOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
THROUGH TOMORROW. BY TOMORROW NIGHT MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME MORE OPEN AND PHASE SOMEWHAT WITH
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. NET RESULT WILL BE MEAN HEIGHT FALLS AND
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT NECESSITATING HIGHER PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FROM
ROUGHLY MID/LATE MORNING THURSDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. DURING THIS
TIME SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DETAILS BECOME INCREASINGLY BLURRY GIVEN
THE INHERENT NATURE OF DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE SMALL WAVES AND LARGER
SYNOPTIC SCALE DISCREPANCIES THAT EMERGE IN THE MODELS.
ADDITIONALLY...SMALLER SCALE DETAILS THAT ARE INFLUENCED BY THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION INCLUDING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
MESOSCALE BOUNDARY FORCING WILL BE A FACTOR. ALL OF THIS WILL BE
RESOLVED BETTER WITH TIME. FOR NOW HAVE RELEGATED HIGHER
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY TO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY AND EXPANDED/INCREASED THIS
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN ONE THIRD OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS SHOW ONE MORE DISTINCT SHORTWAVE IN BROAD TROUGH THAT MAY LEAD
TO INCREASED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND COOLER/DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN EVOLVING EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AT LEAST A BRIEF
PERIOD OF UPPER RIDGING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. INTRODUCTION OF
ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE FORECAST MAY BE NEEDED BY
TUESDAY IN LATER FORECAST ISSUENCES AS THE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND A
TROUGH EVOLVES IN THE WEST. MEAN CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW MAY BECOME
ESTABLISHED WITH A DEEPENING LEE SURFACE TROUGH AND SHARPENING
DRYLINE.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/17







000
FXUS64 KAMA 271122 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
622 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS IN THE IFR RANGE MAY MAKE IT TO THE AMA TAF SITE...SO HAVE
INSERTED A TEMPO GROUP THERE. THINKING RIGHT NOW IS THAT THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL NOT MAKE IT TO DHT OR GUY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK INTO
THE 14 TO 17 KNOT RANGE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THEY SHOULD
BACK SOME AND DECREASE DURING THE EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE GREATER CHANCES NEAR DHT AND GUY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE NOT MENTIONED THEM IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME AS
COVERAGE SHOULD BE PRETTY SCATTERED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

CHALLENGING FORECAST AHEAD WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF PERIODS OF
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EARLY
THIS MORNING CONVECTION WAS ONGOING IN A SMALL CLUSTER FROM THE
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE NORTHWARD INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
OTHER ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS NEW MEXICO. PRIMARY DRIVING FORCE FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ASIDE FROM DIABATIC
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
NOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS IS THE MOST APPARENT OF A
SERIES OF WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN RELATIVELY WEAK WESTERLY FLOW.
STORMS THAT OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN AT LEAST A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KNOTS
FAVORING STORM ORGANIZATION. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE
POSSIBLE WITH HAIL BEING THE MOST COMMON TYPE. ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST
HALF IS MOST FAVORED FOR DEVELOPMENT.

A MORE IMPACTFUL UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IN THE FORM OF A COMPACT CLOSED
LOW NOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
THROUGH TOMORROW. BY TOMORROW NIGHT MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME MORE OPEN AND PHASE SOMEWHAT WITH
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. NET RESULT WILL BE MEAN HEIGHT FALLS AND
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT NECESSITATING HIGHER PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FROM
ROUGHLY MID/LATE MORNING THURSDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. DURING THIS
TIME SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DETAILS BECOME INCREASINGLY BLURRY GIVEN
THE INHERENT NATURE OF DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE SMALL WAVES AND LARGER
SYNOPTIC SCALE DISCREPANCIES THAT EMERGE IN THE MODELS.
ADDITIONALLY...SMALLER SCALE DETAILS THAT ARE INFLUENCED BY THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION INCLUDING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
MESOSCALE BOUNDARY FORCING WILL BE A FACTOR. ALL OF THIS WILL BE
RESOLVED BETTER WITH TIME. FOR NOW HAVE RELEGATED HIGHER
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY TO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY AND EXPANDED/INCREASED THIS
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN ONE THIRD OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS SHOW ONE MORE DISTINCT SHORTWAVE IN BROAD TROUGH THAT MAY LEAD
TO INCREASED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND COOLER/DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN EVOLVING EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AT LEAST A BRIEF
PERIOD OF UPPER RIDGING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. INTRODUCTION OF
ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE FORECAST MAY BE NEEDED BY
TUESDAY IN LATER FORECAST ISSUENCES AS THE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND A
TROUGH EVOLVES IN THE WEST. MEAN CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW MAY BECOME
ESTABLISHED WITH A DEEPENING LEE SURFACE TROUGH AND SHARPENING
DRYLINE.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/17






000
FXUS64 KAMA 271122 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
622 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS IN THE IFR RANGE MAY MAKE IT TO THE AMA TAF SITE...SO HAVE
INSERTED A TEMPO GROUP THERE. THINKING RIGHT NOW IS THAT THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL NOT MAKE IT TO DHT OR GUY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK INTO
THE 14 TO 17 KNOT RANGE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THEY SHOULD
BACK SOME AND DECREASE DURING THE EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE GREATER CHANCES NEAR DHT AND GUY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE NOT MENTIONED THEM IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME AS
COVERAGE SHOULD BE PRETTY SCATTERED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

CHALLENGING FORECAST AHEAD WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF PERIODS OF
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EARLY
THIS MORNING CONVECTION WAS ONGOING IN A SMALL CLUSTER FROM THE
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE NORTHWARD INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
OTHER ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS NEW MEXICO. PRIMARY DRIVING FORCE FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ASIDE FROM DIABATIC
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
NOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS IS THE MOST APPARENT OF A
SERIES OF WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN RELATIVELY WEAK WESTERLY FLOW.
STORMS THAT OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN AT LEAST A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KNOTS
FAVORING STORM ORGANIZATION. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE
POSSIBLE WITH HAIL BEING THE MOST COMMON TYPE. ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST
HALF IS MOST FAVORED FOR DEVELOPMENT.

A MORE IMPACTFUL UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IN THE FORM OF A COMPACT CLOSED
LOW NOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
THROUGH TOMORROW. BY TOMORROW NIGHT MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME MORE OPEN AND PHASE SOMEWHAT WITH
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. NET RESULT WILL BE MEAN HEIGHT FALLS AND
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT NECESSITATING HIGHER PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FROM
ROUGHLY MID/LATE MORNING THURSDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. DURING THIS
TIME SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DETAILS BECOME INCREASINGLY BLURRY GIVEN
THE INHERENT NATURE OF DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE SMALL WAVES AND LARGER
SYNOPTIC SCALE DISCREPANCIES THAT EMERGE IN THE MODELS.
ADDITIONALLY...SMALLER SCALE DETAILS THAT ARE INFLUENCED BY THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION INCLUDING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
MESOSCALE BOUNDARY FORCING WILL BE A FACTOR. ALL OF THIS WILL BE
RESOLVED BETTER WITH TIME. FOR NOW HAVE RELEGATED HIGHER
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY TO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY AND EXPANDED/INCREASED THIS
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN ONE THIRD OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS SHOW ONE MORE DISTINCT SHORTWAVE IN BROAD TROUGH THAT MAY LEAD
TO INCREASED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND COOLER/DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN EVOLVING EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AT LEAST A BRIEF
PERIOD OF UPPER RIDGING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. INTRODUCTION OF
ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE FORECAST MAY BE NEEDED BY
TUESDAY IN LATER FORECAST ISSUENCES AS THE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND A
TROUGH EVOLVES IN THE WEST. MEAN CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW MAY BECOME
ESTABLISHED WITH A DEEPENING LEE SURFACE TROUGH AND SHARPENING
DRYLINE.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/17







000
FXUS64 KAMA 270932 CCA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
432 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CHALLENGING FORECAST AHEAD WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF PERIODS OF
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EARLY
THIS MORNING CONVECTION WAS ONGOING IN A SMALL CLUSTER FROM THE
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE NORTHWARD INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
OTHER ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS NEW MEXICO. PRIMARY DRIVING FORCE FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ASIDE FROM DIABATIC
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
NOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS IS THE MOST APPARENT OF A
SERIES OF WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN RELATIVELY WEAK WESTERLY FLOW.
STORMS THAT OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN AT LEAST A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KNOTS
FAVORING STORM ORGANIZATION. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE
POSSIBLE WITH HAIL BEING THE MOST COMMON TYPE. ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST
HALF IS MOST FAVORED FOR DEVELOPMENT.

A MORE IMPACTFUL UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IN THE FORM OF A COMPACT CLOSED
LOW NOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
THROUGH TOMORROW. BY TOMORROW NIGHT MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME MORE OPEN AND PHASE SOMEWHAT WITH
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. NET RESULT WILL BE MEAN HEIGHT FALLS AND
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT NECESSITATING HIGHER PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FROM
ROUGHLY MID/LATE MORNING THURSDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. DURING THIS
TIME SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DETAILS BECOME INCREASINGLY BLURRY GIVEN
THE INHERENT NATURE OF DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE SMALL WAVES AND LARGER
SYNOPTIC SCALE DISCREPANCIES THAT EMERGE IN THE MODELS.
ADDITIONALLY...SMALLER SCALE DETAILS THAT ARE INFLUENCED BY THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION INCLUDING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
MESOSCALE BOUNDARY FORCING WILL BE A FACTOR. ALL OF THIS WILL BE
RESOLVED BETTER WITH TIME. FOR NOW HAVE RELEGATED HIGHER
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY TO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY AND EXPANDED/INCREASED THIS
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN ONE THIRD OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS SHOW ONE MORE DISTINCT SHORTWAVE IN BROAD TROUGH THAT MAY LEAD
TO INCREASED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND COOLER/DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN EVOLVING EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AT LEAST A BRIEF
PERIOD OF UPPER RIDGING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. INTRODUCTION OF
ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE FORECAST MAY BE NEEDED BY
TUESDAY IN LATER FORECAST ISSUENCES AS THE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND A
TROUGH EVOLVES IN THE WEST. MEAN CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW MAY BECOME
ESTABLISHED WITH A DEEPENING LEE SURFACE TROUGH AND SHARPENING
DRYLINE.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                84  60  77  56  79 /  20  50  60  40  30
BEAVER OK                  84  61  81  60  80 /  40  50  50  40  30
BOISE CITY OK              84  57  81  52  77 /  30  30  30  30  20
BORGER TX                  85  63  81  60  81 /  30  40  50  40  30
BOYS RANCH TX              88  61  82  56  81 /  20  50  50  30  20
CANYON TX                  85  59  78  56  80 /  20  50  60  40  20
CLARENDON TX               86  60  75  59  79 /  30  50  60  50  30
DALHART TX                 85  58  80  55  79 /  20  40  40  30  20
GUYMON OK                  86  60  82  58  79 /  40  30  40  30  20
HEREFORD TX                84  59  79  55  82 /  20  50  60  30  20
LIPSCOMB TX                84  62  80  61  79 /  40  40  50  50  30
PAMPA TX                   82  60  76  58  78 /  30  40  60  50  30
SHAMROCK TX                83  61  74  61  77 /  30  50  60  50  40
WELLINGTON TX              85  62  74  62  79 /  30  50  60  50  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/17









000
FXUS64 KAMA 270932 CCA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
432 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CHALLENGING FORECAST AHEAD WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF PERIODS OF
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EARLY
THIS MORNING CONVECTION WAS ONGOING IN A SMALL CLUSTER FROM THE
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE NORTHWARD INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
OTHER ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS NEW MEXICO. PRIMARY DRIVING FORCE FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ASIDE FROM DIABATIC
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
NOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS IS THE MOST APPARENT OF A
SERIES OF WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN RELATIVELY WEAK WESTERLY FLOW.
STORMS THAT OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN AT LEAST A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KNOTS
FAVORING STORM ORGANIZATION. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE
POSSIBLE WITH HAIL BEING THE MOST COMMON TYPE. ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST
HALF IS MOST FAVORED FOR DEVELOPMENT.

A MORE IMPACTFUL UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IN THE FORM OF A COMPACT CLOSED
LOW NOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
THROUGH TOMORROW. BY TOMORROW NIGHT MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME MORE OPEN AND PHASE SOMEWHAT WITH
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. NET RESULT WILL BE MEAN HEIGHT FALLS AND
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT NECESSITATING HIGHER PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FROM
ROUGHLY MID/LATE MORNING THURSDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. DURING THIS
TIME SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DETAILS BECOME INCREASINGLY BLURRY GIVEN
THE INHERENT NATURE OF DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE SMALL WAVES AND LARGER
SYNOPTIC SCALE DISCREPANCIES THAT EMERGE IN THE MODELS.
ADDITIONALLY...SMALLER SCALE DETAILS THAT ARE INFLUENCED BY THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION INCLUDING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
MESOSCALE BOUNDARY FORCING WILL BE A FACTOR. ALL OF THIS WILL BE
RESOLVED BETTER WITH TIME. FOR NOW HAVE RELEGATED HIGHER
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY TO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY AND EXPANDED/INCREASED THIS
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN ONE THIRD OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS SHOW ONE MORE DISTINCT SHORTWAVE IN BROAD TROUGH THAT MAY LEAD
TO INCREASED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND COOLER/DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN EVOLVING EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AT LEAST A BRIEF
PERIOD OF UPPER RIDGING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. INTRODUCTION OF
ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE FORECAST MAY BE NEEDED BY
TUESDAY IN LATER FORECAST ISSUENCES AS THE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND A
TROUGH EVOLVES IN THE WEST. MEAN CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW MAY BECOME
ESTABLISHED WITH A DEEPENING LEE SURFACE TROUGH AND SHARPENING
DRYLINE.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                84  60  77  56  79 /  20  50  60  40  30
BEAVER OK                  84  61  81  60  80 /  40  50  50  40  30
BOISE CITY OK              84  57  81  52  77 /  30  30  30  30  20
BORGER TX                  85  63  81  60  81 /  30  40  50  40  30
BOYS RANCH TX              88  61  82  56  81 /  20  50  50  30  20
CANYON TX                  85  59  78  56  80 /  20  50  60  40  20
CLARENDON TX               86  60  75  59  79 /  30  50  60  50  30
DALHART TX                 85  58  80  55  79 /  20  40  40  30  20
GUYMON OK                  86  60  82  58  79 /  40  30  40  30  20
HEREFORD TX                84  59  79  55  82 /  20  50  60  30  20
LIPSCOMB TX                84  62  80  61  79 /  40  40  50  50  30
PAMPA TX                   82  60  76  58  78 /  30  40  60  50  30
SHAMROCK TX                83  61  74  61  77 /  30  50  60  50  40
WELLINGTON TX              85  62  74  62  79 /  30  50  60  50  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/17








000
FXUS64 KAMA 270922
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
422 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CHALLENGING FORECAST AHEAD WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF PERIODS OF
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EARLY
THIS MORNING CONVECTION WAS ONGOING IN A SMALL CLUSTER FROM THE
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE NORTHWARD INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
OTHER ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS NEW MEXICO. PRIMARY DRIVING FORCE FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ASIDE FROM DIABATIC
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
NOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS IS THE MOST APPARENT OF A
SERIES OF WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN RELATIVELY WEAK WESTERLY FLOW.
STORMS THAT OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN AT LEAST A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KNOTS
FAVORING STORM ORGANIZATION. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE
POSSIBLE WITH HAIL BEING THE MOST COMMON TYPE. ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST
HALF IS MOST FAVORED FOR DEVELOPMENT.

A MORE IMPACTFUL UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IN THE FORM OF A COMPACT CLOSED
LOW NOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
THROUGH TOMORROW. BY TOMORROW NIGHT MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME MORE OPEN AND PHASE SOMEWHAT WITH
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. NET RESULT WILL BE MEAN HEIGHT FALLS AND
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT NECESSITATING HIGHER PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FROM
ROUGHLY MID/LATE MORNING THURSDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. DURING THIS
TIME SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DETAILS BECOME INCREASINGLY BLURRY GIVEN
THE INHERENT NATURE OF DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE SMALL WAVES AND LARGER
SYNOPTIC SCALE DISCREPANCIES THAT EMERGE IN THE MODELS.
ADDITIONALLY...SMALLER SCALE DETAILS THAT ARE INFLUENCED BY THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION INCLUDING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
MESOSCALE BOUNDARY FORCING WILL BE A FACTOR. ALL OF THIS WILL BE
RESOLVED BETTER WITH TIME. FOR NOW HAVE RELEGATED HIGHER
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY TO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY AND EXPANDED/INCREASED THIS
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN ONE THIRD OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS SHOW ONE MORE DISTINCT SHORTWAVE IN ROAD TROUGH THAT MAY LEAD
TO INCREASED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND COOLER/DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN EVOLVING EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AT LEAST A BRIEF
PERIOD OF UPPER RIDGING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. INTRODUCTION OF
ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE FORECAST MAY BE NEEDED BY
TUESDAY IN LATER FORECAST ISSUENCES AS THE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND A
TROUGH EVOLVES IN THE WEST. MEAN CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW MAY BECOME
ESTABLISHED WITH A DEEPENING LEE SURFACE TROUGH AND SHARPENING
DRYLINE.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                84  60  77  56  79 /  20  50  60  40  30
BEAVER OK                  84  61  81  60  80 /  40  50  50  40  30
BOISE CITY OK              84  57  81  52  77 /  30  30  30  30  20
BORGER TX                  85  63  81  60  81 /  30  40  50  40  30
BOYS RANCH TX              88  61  82  56  81 /  20  50  50  30  20
CANYON TX                  85  59  78  56  80 /  20  50  60  40  20
CLARENDON TX               86  60  75  59  79 /  30  50  60  50  30
DALHART TX                 85  58  80  55  79 /  20  40  40  30  20
GUYMON OK                  86  60  82  58  79 /  40  30  40  30  20
HEREFORD TX                84  59  79  55  82 /  20  50  60  30  20
LIPSCOMB TX                84  62  80  61  79 /  40  40  50  50  30
PAMPA TX                   82  60  76  58  78 /  30  40  60  50  30
SHAMROCK TX                83  61  74  61  77 /  30  50  60  50  40
WELLINGTON TX              85  62  74  62  79 /  30  50  60  50  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/17







000
FXUS64 KAMA 270922
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
422 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CHALLENGING FORECAST AHEAD WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF PERIODS OF
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EARLY
THIS MORNING CONVECTION WAS ONGOING IN A SMALL CLUSTER FROM THE
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE NORTHWARD INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
OTHER ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS NEW MEXICO. PRIMARY DRIVING FORCE FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ASIDE FROM DIABATIC
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
NOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS IS THE MOST APPARENT OF A
SERIES OF WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN RELATIVELY WEAK WESTERLY FLOW.
STORMS THAT OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN AT LEAST A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KNOTS
FAVORING STORM ORGANIZATION. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE
POSSIBLE WITH HAIL BEING THE MOST COMMON TYPE. ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST
HALF IS MOST FAVORED FOR DEVELOPMENT.

A MORE IMPACTFUL UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IN THE FORM OF A COMPACT CLOSED
LOW NOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
THROUGH TOMORROW. BY TOMORROW NIGHT MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME MORE OPEN AND PHASE SOMEWHAT WITH
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. NET RESULT WILL BE MEAN HEIGHT FALLS AND
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT NECESSITATING HIGHER PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FROM
ROUGHLY MID/LATE MORNING THURSDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. DURING THIS
TIME SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DETAILS BECOME INCREASINGLY BLURRY GIVEN
THE INHERENT NATURE OF DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE SMALL WAVES AND LARGER
SYNOPTIC SCALE DISCREPANCIES THAT EMERGE IN THE MODELS.
ADDITIONALLY...SMALLER SCALE DETAILS THAT ARE INFLUENCED BY THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION INCLUDING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
MESOSCALE BOUNDARY FORCING WILL BE A FACTOR. ALL OF THIS WILL BE
RESOLVED BETTER WITH TIME. FOR NOW HAVE RELEGATED HIGHER
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY TO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY AND EXPANDED/INCREASED THIS
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN ONE THIRD OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS SHOW ONE MORE DISTINCT SHORTWAVE IN ROAD TROUGH THAT MAY LEAD
TO INCREASED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND COOLER/DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN EVOLVING EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AT LEAST A BRIEF
PERIOD OF UPPER RIDGING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. INTRODUCTION OF
ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE FORECAST MAY BE NEEDED BY
TUESDAY IN LATER FORECAST ISSUENCES AS THE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND A
TROUGH EVOLVES IN THE WEST. MEAN CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW MAY BECOME
ESTABLISHED WITH A DEEPENING LEE SURFACE TROUGH AND SHARPENING
DRYLINE.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                84  60  77  56  79 /  20  50  60  40  30
BEAVER OK                  84  61  81  60  80 /  40  50  50  40  30
BOISE CITY OK              84  57  81  52  77 /  30  30  30  30  20
BORGER TX                  85  63  81  60  81 /  30  40  50  40  30
BOYS RANCH TX              88  61  82  56  81 /  20  50  50  30  20
CANYON TX                  85  59  78  56  80 /  20  50  60  40  20
CLARENDON TX               86  60  75  59  79 /  30  50  60  50  30
DALHART TX                 85  58  80  55  79 /  20  40  40  30  20
GUYMON OK                  86  60  82  58  79 /  40  30  40  30  20
HEREFORD TX                84  59  79  55  82 /  20  50  60  30  20
LIPSCOMB TX                84  62  80  61  79 /  40  40  50  50  30
PAMPA TX                   82  60  76  58  78 /  30  40  60  50  30
SHAMROCK TX                83  61  74  61  77 /  30  50  60  50  40
WELLINGTON TX              85  62  74  62  79 /  30  50  60  50  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/17






000
FXUS64 KAMA 270342 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1042 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS AVIATION AFD REASONING.
PATCHY BR AND MVFR CIGS PSBL AT KGUY LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING
AND HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION IN THIS CYCLE. ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE TX AND OK PNHDLS LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHERE STORMS MIGHT FORM...HAVE DECIDED TO
REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING THIS FCST PERIOD.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...PATCHY BR AND MVFR CIGS PSBL AT KGUY LATE TONIGHT
INTO MID MORNING WED AND HAVE INCLUDED IN THIS TAF CYCLE. ISOLD
TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE TX AND OK PNHDLS LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE SHOULD ANY STORMS
FORM...HAVE DECIDED TO REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING THIS FCST PERIOD.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW CENTERED ALMOST RIGHT OVER THE KAMA RADAR THIS
AFTERNOON...AND HAS BEEN EVIDENT ON RADAR CLEAR AIR RETURNS AND NOW
THE SCATTERED CU. A LITTLE BIT OF DRIER AIR WORKED INTO THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS EARLIER TODAY...BUT ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE ON THE HEELS
OF SAID DRIER AIR IS CURRENTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO THE WEST WITH
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THERE NOW. THIS ACTIVITY COULD
DRIFT INTO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES TONIGHT AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD BUT OVERALL COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF STORMS WILL BE PRETTY
LIMITED. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES...WITH AMPLE
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE AND A FEW REMAINING DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW 60S COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT APPEARS THE MORE LIKELY AREA WILL BE
FURTHER EAST INTO OKLAHOMA.

ON WEDNESDAY...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS THROUGH THE DAY AND
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE IN MEAN WESTERLY FLOW WILL CROSS THE
PANHANDLES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...OFFERING SOME UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS IN THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES. SURFACE BASED INGREDIENTS WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE
FOR CONVECTION TOMORROW AS WELL AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS ALONG
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SPREAD WESTWARD. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND FORECAST SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE TO 2000-3000 J/KG. FOR
THURSDAY MORNING...LOWERED POPS JUST SLIGHTLY TO REMOVE LIKELY
MENTION AS BETTER SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE RETURN MOVE
EAST...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS THAT A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP DURING
THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO COME
OFF THE TROUGH AS IT DIGS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
AZ/NM. CHANCES LOOK BETTER LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH
MOVES EAST. TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST ON THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING FOR HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...SO HAVE
LEFT POPS A BIT HIGHER EAST AND A LITTLE LOWER WEST AS WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING A FRONT
DROPS DOWN INTO THE PANHANDLES AND HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS DURING THAT
TIME PERIOD. WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE PANHANDLES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD AND
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DROP OFF.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 270342 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1042 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS AVIATION AFD REASONING.
PATCHY BR AND MVFR CIGS PSBL AT KGUY LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING
AND HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION IN THIS CYCLE. ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE TX AND OK PNHDLS LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHERE STORMS MIGHT FORM...HAVE DECIDED TO
REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING THIS FCST PERIOD.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...PATCHY BR AND MVFR CIGS PSBL AT KGUY LATE TONIGHT
INTO MID MORNING WED AND HAVE INCLUDED IN THIS TAF CYCLE. ISOLD
TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE TX AND OK PNHDLS LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE SHOULD ANY STORMS
FORM...HAVE DECIDED TO REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING THIS FCST PERIOD.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW CENTERED ALMOST RIGHT OVER THE KAMA RADAR THIS
AFTERNOON...AND HAS BEEN EVIDENT ON RADAR CLEAR AIR RETURNS AND NOW
THE SCATTERED CU. A LITTLE BIT OF DRIER AIR WORKED INTO THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS EARLIER TODAY...BUT ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE ON THE HEELS
OF SAID DRIER AIR IS CURRENTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO THE WEST WITH
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THERE NOW. THIS ACTIVITY COULD
DRIFT INTO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES TONIGHT AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD BUT OVERALL COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF STORMS WILL BE PRETTY
LIMITED. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES...WITH AMPLE
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE AND A FEW REMAINING DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW 60S COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT APPEARS THE MORE LIKELY AREA WILL BE
FURTHER EAST INTO OKLAHOMA.

ON WEDNESDAY...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS THROUGH THE DAY AND
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE IN MEAN WESTERLY FLOW WILL CROSS THE
PANHANDLES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...OFFERING SOME UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS IN THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES. SURFACE BASED INGREDIENTS WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE
FOR CONVECTION TOMORROW AS WELL AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS ALONG
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SPREAD WESTWARD. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND FORECAST SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE TO 2000-3000 J/KG. FOR
THURSDAY MORNING...LOWERED POPS JUST SLIGHTLY TO REMOVE LIKELY
MENTION AS BETTER SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE RETURN MOVE
EAST...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS THAT A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP DURING
THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO COME
OFF THE TROUGH AS IT DIGS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
AZ/NM. CHANCES LOOK BETTER LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH
MOVES EAST. TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST ON THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING FOR HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...SO HAVE
LEFT POPS A BIT HIGHER EAST AND A LITTLE LOWER WEST AS WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING A FRONT
DROPS DOWN INTO THE PANHANDLES AND HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS DURING THAT
TIME PERIOD. WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE PANHANDLES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD AND
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DROP OFF.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 270342 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1042 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS AVIATION AFD REASONING.
PATCHY BR AND MVFR CIGS PSBL AT KGUY LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING
AND HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION IN THIS CYCLE. ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE TX AND OK PNHDLS LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHERE STORMS MIGHT FORM...HAVE DECIDED TO
REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING THIS FCST PERIOD.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...PATCHY BR AND MVFR CIGS PSBL AT KGUY LATE TONIGHT
INTO MID MORNING WED AND HAVE INCLUDED IN THIS TAF CYCLE. ISOLD
TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE TX AND OK PNHDLS LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE SHOULD ANY STORMS
FORM...HAVE DECIDED TO REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING THIS FCST PERIOD.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW CENTERED ALMOST RIGHT OVER THE KAMA RADAR THIS
AFTERNOON...AND HAS BEEN EVIDENT ON RADAR CLEAR AIR RETURNS AND NOW
THE SCATTERED CU. A LITTLE BIT OF DRIER AIR WORKED INTO THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS EARLIER TODAY...BUT ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE ON THE HEELS
OF SAID DRIER AIR IS CURRENTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO THE WEST WITH
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THERE NOW. THIS ACTIVITY COULD
DRIFT INTO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES TONIGHT AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD BUT OVERALL COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF STORMS WILL BE PRETTY
LIMITED. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES...WITH AMPLE
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE AND A FEW REMAINING DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW 60S COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT APPEARS THE MORE LIKELY AREA WILL BE
FURTHER EAST INTO OKLAHOMA.

ON WEDNESDAY...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS THROUGH THE DAY AND
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE IN MEAN WESTERLY FLOW WILL CROSS THE
PANHANDLES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...OFFERING SOME UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS IN THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES. SURFACE BASED INGREDIENTS WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE
FOR CONVECTION TOMORROW AS WELL AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS ALONG
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SPREAD WESTWARD. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND FORECAST SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE TO 2000-3000 J/KG. FOR
THURSDAY MORNING...LOWERED POPS JUST SLIGHTLY TO REMOVE LIKELY
MENTION AS BETTER SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE RETURN MOVE
EAST...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS THAT A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP DURING
THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO COME
OFF THE TROUGH AS IT DIGS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
AZ/NM. CHANCES LOOK BETTER LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH
MOVES EAST. TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST ON THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING FOR HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...SO HAVE
LEFT POPS A BIT HIGHER EAST AND A LITTLE LOWER WEST AS WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING A FRONT
DROPS DOWN INTO THE PANHANDLES AND HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS DURING THAT
TIME PERIOD. WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE PANHANDLES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD AND
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DROP OFF.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 262348 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
648 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...PATCHY BR AND MVFR CIGS PSBL AT KGUY LATE TONIGHT
INTO MID MORNING WED AND HAVE INCLUDED IN THIS TAF CYCLE. ISOLD
TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE TX AND OK PNHDLS LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE SHOULD ANY STORMS
FORM...HAVE DECIDED TO REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING THIS FCST PERIOD.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW CENTERED ALMOST RIGHT OVER THE KAMA RADAR THIS
AFTERNOON...AND HAS BEEN EVIDENT ON RADAR CLEAR AIR RETURNS AND NOW
THE SCATTERED CU. A LITTLE BIT OF DRIER AIR WORKED INTO THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS EARLIER TODAY...BUT ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE ON THE HEELS
OF SAID DRIER AIR IS CURRENTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO THE WEST WITH
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THERE NOW. THIS ACTIVITY COULD
DRIFT INTO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES TONIGHT AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD BUT OVERALL COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF STORMS WILL BE PRETTY
LIMITED. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES...WITH AMPLE
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE AND A FEW REMAINING DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW 60S COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT APPEARS THE MORE LIKELY AREA WILL BE
FURTHER EAST INTO OKLAHOMA.

ON WEDNESDAY...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS THROUGH THE DAY AND
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE IN MEAN WESTERLY FLOW WILL CROSS THE
PANHANDLES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...OFFERING SOME UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS IN THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES. SURFACE BASED INGREDIENTS WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE
FOR CONVECTION TOMORROW AS WELL AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS ALONG
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SPREAD WESTWARD. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND FORECAST SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE TO 2000-3000 J/KG. FOR
THURSDAY MORNING...LOWERED POPS JUST SLIGHTLY TO REMOVE LIKELY
MENTION AS BETTER SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE RETURN MOVE
EAST...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS THAT A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP DURING
THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO COME
OFF THE TROUGH AS IT DIGS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
AZ/NM. CHANCES LOOK BETTER LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH
MOVES EAST. TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST ON THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING FOR HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...SO HAVE
LEFT POPS A BIT HIGHER EAST AND A LITTLE LOWER WEST AS WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING A FRONT
DROPS DOWN INTO THE PANHANDLES AND HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS DURING THAT
TIME PERIOD. WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE PANHANDLES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD AND
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DROP OFF.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 262348 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
648 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...PATCHY BR AND MVFR CIGS PSBL AT KGUY LATE TONIGHT
INTO MID MORNING WED AND HAVE INCLUDED IN THIS TAF CYCLE. ISOLD
TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE TX AND OK PNHDLS LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE SHOULD ANY STORMS
FORM...HAVE DECIDED TO REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING THIS FCST PERIOD.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW CENTERED ALMOST RIGHT OVER THE KAMA RADAR THIS
AFTERNOON...AND HAS BEEN EVIDENT ON RADAR CLEAR AIR RETURNS AND NOW
THE SCATTERED CU. A LITTLE BIT OF DRIER AIR WORKED INTO THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS EARLIER TODAY...BUT ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE ON THE HEELS
OF SAID DRIER AIR IS CURRENTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO THE WEST WITH
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THERE NOW. THIS ACTIVITY COULD
DRIFT INTO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES TONIGHT AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD BUT OVERALL COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF STORMS WILL BE PRETTY
LIMITED. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES...WITH AMPLE
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE AND A FEW REMAINING DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW 60S COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT APPEARS THE MORE LIKELY AREA WILL BE
FURTHER EAST INTO OKLAHOMA.

ON WEDNESDAY...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS THROUGH THE DAY AND
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE IN MEAN WESTERLY FLOW WILL CROSS THE
PANHANDLES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...OFFERING SOME UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS IN THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES. SURFACE BASED INGREDIENTS WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE
FOR CONVECTION TOMORROW AS WELL AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS ALONG
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SPREAD WESTWARD. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND FORECAST SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE TO 2000-3000 J/KG. FOR
THURSDAY MORNING...LOWERED POPS JUST SLIGHTLY TO REMOVE LIKELY
MENTION AS BETTER SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE RETURN MOVE
EAST...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS THAT A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP DURING
THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO COME
OFF THE TROUGH AS IT DIGS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
AZ/NM. CHANCES LOOK BETTER LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH
MOVES EAST. TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST ON THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING FOR HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...SO HAVE
LEFT POPS A BIT HIGHER EAST AND A LITTLE LOWER WEST AS WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING A FRONT
DROPS DOWN INTO THE PANHANDLES AND HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS DURING THAT
TIME PERIOD. WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE PANHANDLES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD AND
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DROP OFF.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 262348 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
648 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...PATCHY BR AND MVFR CIGS PSBL AT KGUY LATE TONIGHT
INTO MID MORNING WED AND HAVE INCLUDED IN THIS TAF CYCLE. ISOLD
TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE TX AND OK PNHDLS LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE SHOULD ANY STORMS
FORM...HAVE DECIDED TO REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING THIS FCST PERIOD.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW CENTERED ALMOST RIGHT OVER THE KAMA RADAR THIS
AFTERNOON...AND HAS BEEN EVIDENT ON RADAR CLEAR AIR RETURNS AND NOW
THE SCATTERED CU. A LITTLE BIT OF DRIER AIR WORKED INTO THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS EARLIER TODAY...BUT ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE ON THE HEELS
OF SAID DRIER AIR IS CURRENTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO THE WEST WITH
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THERE NOW. THIS ACTIVITY COULD
DRIFT INTO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES TONIGHT AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD BUT OVERALL COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF STORMS WILL BE PRETTY
LIMITED. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES...WITH AMPLE
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE AND A FEW REMAINING DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW 60S COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT APPEARS THE MORE LIKELY AREA WILL BE
FURTHER EAST INTO OKLAHOMA.

ON WEDNESDAY...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS THROUGH THE DAY AND
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE IN MEAN WESTERLY FLOW WILL CROSS THE
PANHANDLES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...OFFERING SOME UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS IN THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES. SURFACE BASED INGREDIENTS WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE
FOR CONVECTION TOMORROW AS WELL AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS ALONG
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SPREAD WESTWARD. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND FORECAST SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE TO 2000-3000 J/KG. FOR
THURSDAY MORNING...LOWERED POPS JUST SLIGHTLY TO REMOVE LIKELY
MENTION AS BETTER SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE RETURN MOVE
EAST...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS THAT A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP DURING
THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO COME
OFF THE TROUGH AS IT DIGS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
AZ/NM. CHANCES LOOK BETTER LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH
MOVES EAST. TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST ON THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING FOR HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...SO HAVE
LEFT POPS A BIT HIGHER EAST AND A LITTLE LOWER WEST AS WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING A FRONT
DROPS DOWN INTO THE PANHANDLES AND HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS DURING THAT
TIME PERIOD. WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE PANHANDLES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD AND
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DROP OFF.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 262145
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
445 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW CENTERED ALMOST RIGHT OVER THE KAMA RADAR THIS
AFTERNOON...AND HAS BEEN EVIDENT ON RADAR CLEAR AIR RETURNS AND NOW
THE SCATTERED CU. A LITTLE BIT OF DRIER AIR WORKED INTO THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS EARLIER TODAY...BUT ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE ON THE HEELS
OF SAID DRIER AIR IS CURRENTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO THE WEST WITH
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THERE NOW. THIS ACTIVITY COULD
DRIFT INTO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES TONIGHT AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD BUT OVERALL COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF STORMS WILL BE PRETTY
LIMITED. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES...WITH AMPLE
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE AND A FEW REMAINING DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW 60S COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT APPEARS THE MORE LIKELY AREA WILL BE
FURTHER EAST INTO OKLAHOMA.

ON WEDNESDAY...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS THROUGH THE DAY AND
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE IN MEAN WESTERLY FLOW WILL CROSS THE
PANHANDLES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...OFFERING SOME UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS IN THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES. SURFACE BASED INGREDIENTS WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE
FOR CONVECTION TOMORROW AS WELL AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS ALONG
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SPREAD WESTWARD. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND FORECAST SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE TO 2000-3000 J/KG. FOR
THURSDAY MORNING...LOWERED POPS JUST SLIGHTLY TO REMOVE LIKELY
MENTION AS BETTER SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE RETURN MOVE
EAST...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS THAT A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP DURING
THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO COME
OFF THE TROUGH AS IT DIGS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
AZ/NM. CHANCES LOOK BETTER LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH
MOVES EAST. TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST ON THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING FOR HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...SO HAVE
LEFT POPS A BIT HIGHER EAST AND A LITTLE LOWER WEST AS WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING A FRONT
DROPS DOWN INTO THE PANHANDLES AND HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS DURING THAT
TIME PERIOD. WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE PANHANDLES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD AND
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DROP OFF.

ELSENHEIMER


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                55  86  61  75  57 /   5  20  40  60  50
BEAVER OK                  56  87  63  81  61 /  20  40  50  50  60
BOISE CITY OK              51  86  58  78  55 /  10  30  40  50  30
BORGER TX                  57  88  63  78  60 /  10  20  40  60  50
BOYS RANCH TX              55  89  62  77  57 /   5  20  40  50  40
CANYON TX                  55  86  61  75  57 /   5  10  40  60  50
CLARENDON TX               56  85  62  76  60 /  10  20  40  60  60
DALHART TX                 53  88  59  77  56 /  10  20  40  50  40
GUYMON OK                  55  87  61  79  59 /  10  30  40  50  40
HEREFORD TX                55  87  61  76  57 /   5  10  40  60  50
LIPSCOMB TX                57  87  63  78  61 /  20  30  50  50  60
PAMPA TX                   56  84  61  75  59 /  10  20  40  60  50
SHAMROCK TX                58  85  63  76  62 /  20  20  50  60  60
WELLINGTON TX              60  87  65  78  62 /  10  20  50  60  60

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/18







000
FXUS64 KAMA 262145
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
445 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW CENTERED ALMOST RIGHT OVER THE KAMA RADAR THIS
AFTERNOON...AND HAS BEEN EVIDENT ON RADAR CLEAR AIR RETURNS AND NOW
THE SCATTERED CU. A LITTLE BIT OF DRIER AIR WORKED INTO THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS EARLIER TODAY...BUT ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE ON THE HEELS
OF SAID DRIER AIR IS CURRENTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO THE WEST WITH
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THERE NOW. THIS ACTIVITY COULD
DRIFT INTO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES TONIGHT AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD BUT OVERALL COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF STORMS WILL BE PRETTY
LIMITED. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES...WITH AMPLE
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE AND A FEW REMAINING DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW 60S COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT APPEARS THE MORE LIKELY AREA WILL BE
FURTHER EAST INTO OKLAHOMA.

ON WEDNESDAY...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS THROUGH THE DAY AND
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE IN MEAN WESTERLY FLOW WILL CROSS THE
PANHANDLES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...OFFERING SOME UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS IN THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES. SURFACE BASED INGREDIENTS WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE
FOR CONVECTION TOMORROW AS WELL AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS ALONG
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SPREAD WESTWARD. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND FORECAST SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE TO 2000-3000 J/KG. FOR
THURSDAY MORNING...LOWERED POPS JUST SLIGHTLY TO REMOVE LIKELY
MENTION AS BETTER SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE RETURN MOVE
EAST...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS THAT A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP DURING
THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO COME
OFF THE TROUGH AS IT DIGS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
AZ/NM. CHANCES LOOK BETTER LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH
MOVES EAST. TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST ON THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING FOR HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...SO HAVE
LEFT POPS A BIT HIGHER EAST AND A LITTLE LOWER WEST AS WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING A FRONT
DROPS DOWN INTO THE PANHANDLES AND HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS DURING THAT
TIME PERIOD. WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE PANHANDLES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD AND
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DROP OFF.

ELSENHEIMER


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                55  86  61  75  57 /   5  20  40  60  50
BEAVER OK                  56  87  63  81  61 /  20  40  50  50  60
BOISE CITY OK              51  86  58  78  55 /  10  30  40  50  30
BORGER TX                  57  88  63  78  60 /  10  20  40  60  50
BOYS RANCH TX              55  89  62  77  57 /   5  20  40  50  40
CANYON TX                  55  86  61  75  57 /   5  10  40  60  50
CLARENDON TX               56  85  62  76  60 /  10  20  40  60  60
DALHART TX                 53  88  59  77  56 /  10  20  40  50  40
GUYMON OK                  55  87  61  79  59 /  10  30  40  50  40
HEREFORD TX                55  87  61  76  57 /   5  10  40  60  50
LIPSCOMB TX                57  87  63  78  61 /  20  30  50  50  60
PAMPA TX                   56  84  61  75  59 /  10  20  40  60  50
SHAMROCK TX                58  85  63  76  62 /  20  20  50  60  60
WELLINGTON TX              60  87  65  78  62 /  10  20  50  60  60

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/18






000
FXUS64 KAMA 261759 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1259 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 TO
15 KTS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS
EVENING...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSRA TO DEVELOP...THOUGH
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE TAF SITES. KGUY WILL LIKELY SEE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...MOST LIKELY AFTER
09Z. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED MVFR CEILINGS THERE.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

AVIATION...
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND FROM GENERALLY AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS FORECAST. SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A SEASONAL POLEWARD SHIFT OF STRONGER MEAN WESTERLY FLOW IS
UNDERWAY AND THESE CHANGES ARE MOST EVIDENT DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ONE MORE IN A SERIES OF BROAD AND FAIRLY DEEP TROUGHS WILL
TRAVERSE THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK BRINGING HIGH PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES. UNTIL THEN WEAKLY PERTURBED WESTERLIES WILL BE
PRESENT OVER US WITH A GRADUAL TENDENCY FOR MEAN HEIGHT RISES AND
RESULTANT WARMER TEMPERATURES EVEN ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS FOR A
CHANGE.

ONE SUCH WAVE IS EVIDENT OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS
MORNING IN WATER VAPOR AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH ITS PROGRESSION ACROSS THE PANHANDLES DURING THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. QUALITY
OF MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT TEMPERED BY CONVECTIVE
OVERTURNING FROM LARGE COMPLEX YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 00Z
SOUNDING FROM FORT WORTH SHOWS DRY LOW LEVELS WITH JUST A SHALLOW
NEAR SURFACE MOIST LAYER. NEVERTHELESS...TRAJECTORIES SHOULD BE FROM
FURTHER WEST WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TODAY HAVE SOME CONDITIONALITY. EVEN WITH WEAK ASCENT FROM
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE...BACKGROUND MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE
SIGNIFICANT AT AROUND 5 DM PER 12 HOURS. FURTHERMORE...ASCENT FROM
THE WEAK WAVE MAY BE MISALIGNED WITH WHEN BEST MOISTURE RETURN
AND MOST SIGNIFICANT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY OCCUR. FOR THIS
REASON HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES AND CONFINED THEM TO
ROUGHLY THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE PANHANDLES FROM MID/LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. IF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN FORM THEY COULD BECOME SEVERE GIVEN
MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL BUT SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR.

LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
COINCIDENT WITH ABOVE CLIMO TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR
HIGHS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING SIGNALING THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH. GRADUALLY LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURES AND STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES FAVOR
DEEP ANOMALOUS MOISTURE RETURN ONCE AGAIN WITH PWAT VALUES RISING
AROUND THE 75TH PERCENTILE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE MARKEDLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THURSDAY AS A LEAD WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
WEAKENING TROUGH AND DEAMPLIFYING PATTERN MAY BRING A SECOND ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER
INTO SATURDAY AS TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST. RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS
IN BRINGING A DRIER PATTERN STARTING SUNDAY AND PERSISTING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/18







000
FXUS64 KAMA 261759 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1259 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 TO
15 KTS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS
EVENING...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSRA TO DEVELOP...THOUGH
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE TAF SITES. KGUY WILL LIKELY SEE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...MOST LIKELY AFTER
09Z. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED MVFR CEILINGS THERE.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

AVIATION...
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND FROM GENERALLY AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS FORECAST. SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A SEASONAL POLEWARD SHIFT OF STRONGER MEAN WESTERLY FLOW IS
UNDERWAY AND THESE CHANGES ARE MOST EVIDENT DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ONE MORE IN A SERIES OF BROAD AND FAIRLY DEEP TROUGHS WILL
TRAVERSE THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK BRINGING HIGH PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES. UNTIL THEN WEAKLY PERTURBED WESTERLIES WILL BE
PRESENT OVER US WITH A GRADUAL TENDENCY FOR MEAN HEIGHT RISES AND
RESULTANT WARMER TEMPERATURES EVEN ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS FOR A
CHANGE.

ONE SUCH WAVE IS EVIDENT OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS
MORNING IN WATER VAPOR AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH ITS PROGRESSION ACROSS THE PANHANDLES DURING THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. QUALITY
OF MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT TEMPERED BY CONVECTIVE
OVERTURNING FROM LARGE COMPLEX YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 00Z
SOUNDING FROM FORT WORTH SHOWS DRY LOW LEVELS WITH JUST A SHALLOW
NEAR SURFACE MOIST LAYER. NEVERTHELESS...TRAJECTORIES SHOULD BE FROM
FURTHER WEST WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TODAY HAVE SOME CONDITIONALITY. EVEN WITH WEAK ASCENT FROM
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE...BACKGROUND MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE
SIGNIFICANT AT AROUND 5 DM PER 12 HOURS. FURTHERMORE...ASCENT FROM
THE WEAK WAVE MAY BE MISALIGNED WITH WHEN BEST MOISTURE RETURN
AND MOST SIGNIFICANT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY OCCUR. FOR THIS
REASON HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES AND CONFINED THEM TO
ROUGHLY THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE PANHANDLES FROM MID/LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. IF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN FORM THEY COULD BECOME SEVERE GIVEN
MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL BUT SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR.

LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
COINCIDENT WITH ABOVE CLIMO TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR
HIGHS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING SIGNALING THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH. GRADUALLY LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURES AND STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES FAVOR
DEEP ANOMALOUS MOISTURE RETURN ONCE AGAIN WITH PWAT VALUES RISING
AROUND THE 75TH PERCENTILE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE MARKEDLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THURSDAY AS A LEAD WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
WEAKENING TROUGH AND DEAMPLIFYING PATTERN MAY BRING A SECOND ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER
INTO SATURDAY AS TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST. RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS
IN BRINGING A DRIER PATTERN STARTING SUNDAY AND PERSISTING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/18







000
FXUS64 KAMA 261759 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1259 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 TO
15 KTS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS
EVENING...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSRA TO DEVELOP...THOUGH
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE TAF SITES. KGUY WILL LIKELY SEE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...MOST LIKELY AFTER
09Z. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED MVFR CEILINGS THERE.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

AVIATION...
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND FROM GENERALLY AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS FORECAST. SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A SEASONAL POLEWARD SHIFT OF STRONGER MEAN WESTERLY FLOW IS
UNDERWAY AND THESE CHANGES ARE MOST EVIDENT DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ONE MORE IN A SERIES OF BROAD AND FAIRLY DEEP TROUGHS WILL
TRAVERSE THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK BRINGING HIGH PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES. UNTIL THEN WEAKLY PERTURBED WESTERLIES WILL BE
PRESENT OVER US WITH A GRADUAL TENDENCY FOR MEAN HEIGHT RISES AND
RESULTANT WARMER TEMPERATURES EVEN ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS FOR A
CHANGE.

ONE SUCH WAVE IS EVIDENT OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS
MORNING IN WATER VAPOR AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH ITS PROGRESSION ACROSS THE PANHANDLES DURING THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. QUALITY
OF MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT TEMPERED BY CONVECTIVE
OVERTURNING FROM LARGE COMPLEX YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 00Z
SOUNDING FROM FORT WORTH SHOWS DRY LOW LEVELS WITH JUST A SHALLOW
NEAR SURFACE MOIST LAYER. NEVERTHELESS...TRAJECTORIES SHOULD BE FROM
FURTHER WEST WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TODAY HAVE SOME CONDITIONALITY. EVEN WITH WEAK ASCENT FROM
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE...BACKGROUND MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE
SIGNIFICANT AT AROUND 5 DM PER 12 HOURS. FURTHERMORE...ASCENT FROM
THE WEAK WAVE MAY BE MISALIGNED WITH WHEN BEST MOISTURE RETURN
AND MOST SIGNIFICANT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY OCCUR. FOR THIS
REASON HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES AND CONFINED THEM TO
ROUGHLY THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE PANHANDLES FROM MID/LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. IF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN FORM THEY COULD BECOME SEVERE GIVEN
MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL BUT SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR.

LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
COINCIDENT WITH ABOVE CLIMO TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR
HIGHS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING SIGNALING THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH. GRADUALLY LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURES AND STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES FAVOR
DEEP ANOMALOUS MOISTURE RETURN ONCE AGAIN WITH PWAT VALUES RISING
AROUND THE 75TH PERCENTILE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE MARKEDLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THURSDAY AS A LEAD WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
WEAKENING TROUGH AND DEAMPLIFYING PATTERN MAY BRING A SECOND ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER
INTO SATURDAY AS TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST. RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS
IN BRINGING A DRIER PATTERN STARTING SUNDAY AND PERSISTING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/18






000
FXUS64 KAMA 261113 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
613 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND FROM GENERALLY AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS FORECAST. SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A SEASONAL POLEWARD SHIFT OF STRONGER MEAN WESTERLY FLOW IS
UNDERWAY AND THESE CHANGES ARE MOST EVIDENT DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ONE MORE IN A SERIES OF BROAD AND FAIRLY DEEP TROUGHS WILL
TRAVERSE THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK BRINGING HIGH PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES. UNTIL THEN WEAKLY PERTURBED WESTERLIES WILL BE
PRESENT OVER US WITH A GRADUAL TENDENCY FOR MEAN HEIGHT RISES AND
RESULTANT WARMER TEMPERATURES EVEN ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS FOR A
CHANGE.

ONE SUCH WAVE IS EVIDENT OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS
MORNING IN WATER VAPOR AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH ITS PROGRESSION ACROSS THE PANHANDLES DURING THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. QUALITY
OF MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT TEMPERED BY CONVECTIVE
OVERTURNING FROM LARGE COMPLEX YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 00Z
SOUNDING FROM FORT WORTH SHOWS DRY LOW LEVELS WITH JUST A SHALLOW
NEAR SURFACE MOIST LAYER. NEVERTHELESS...TRAJECTORIES SHOULD BE FROM
FURTHER WEST WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TODAY HAVE SOME CONDITIONALITY. EVEN WITH WEAK ASCENT FROM
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE...BACKGROUND MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE
SIGNIFICANT AT AROUND 5 DM PER 12 HOURS. FURTHERMORE...ASCENT FROM
THE WEAK WAVE MAY BE MISALIGNED WITH WHEN BEST MOISTURE RETURN
AND MOST SIGNIFICANT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY OCCUR. FOR THIS
REASON HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES AND CONFINED THEM TO
ROUGHLY THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE PANHANDLES FROM MID/LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. IF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN FORM THEY COULD BECOME SEVERE GIVEN
MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL BUT SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR.

LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
COINCIDENT WITH ABOVE CLIMO TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR
HIGHS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING SIGNALING THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH. GRADUALLY LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURES AND STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES FAVOR
DEEP ANOMALOUS MOISTURE RETURN ONCE AGAIN WITH PWAT VALUES RISING
AROUND THE 75TH PERCENTILE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE MARKEDLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THURSDAY AS A LEAD WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
WEAKENING TROUGH AND DEAMPLIFYING PATTERN MAY BRING A SECOND ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER
INTO SATURDAY AS TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST. RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS
IN BRINGING A DRIER PATTERN STARTING SUNDAY AND PERSISTING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/17







000
FXUS64 KAMA 261113 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
613 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND FROM GENERALLY AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS FORECAST. SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A SEASONAL POLEWARD SHIFT OF STRONGER MEAN WESTERLY FLOW IS
UNDERWAY AND THESE CHANGES ARE MOST EVIDENT DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ONE MORE IN A SERIES OF BROAD AND FAIRLY DEEP TROUGHS WILL
TRAVERSE THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK BRINGING HIGH PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES. UNTIL THEN WEAKLY PERTURBED WESTERLIES WILL BE
PRESENT OVER US WITH A GRADUAL TENDENCY FOR MEAN HEIGHT RISES AND
RESULTANT WARMER TEMPERATURES EVEN ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS FOR A
CHANGE.

ONE SUCH WAVE IS EVIDENT OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS
MORNING IN WATER VAPOR AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH ITS PROGRESSION ACROSS THE PANHANDLES DURING THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. QUALITY
OF MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT TEMPERED BY CONVECTIVE
OVERTURNING FROM LARGE COMPLEX YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 00Z
SOUNDING FROM FORT WORTH SHOWS DRY LOW LEVELS WITH JUST A SHALLOW
NEAR SURFACE MOIST LAYER. NEVERTHELESS...TRAJECTORIES SHOULD BE FROM
FURTHER WEST WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TODAY HAVE SOME CONDITIONALITY. EVEN WITH WEAK ASCENT FROM
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE...BACKGROUND MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE
SIGNIFICANT AT AROUND 5 DM PER 12 HOURS. FURTHERMORE...ASCENT FROM
THE WEAK WAVE MAY BE MISALIGNED WITH WHEN BEST MOISTURE RETURN
AND MOST SIGNIFICANT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY OCCUR. FOR THIS
REASON HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES AND CONFINED THEM TO
ROUGHLY THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE PANHANDLES FROM MID/LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. IF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN FORM THEY COULD BECOME SEVERE GIVEN
MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL BUT SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR.

LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
COINCIDENT WITH ABOVE CLIMO TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR
HIGHS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING SIGNALING THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH. GRADUALLY LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURES AND STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES FAVOR
DEEP ANOMALOUS MOISTURE RETURN ONCE AGAIN WITH PWAT VALUES RISING
AROUND THE 75TH PERCENTILE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE MARKEDLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THURSDAY AS A LEAD WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
WEAKENING TROUGH AND DEAMPLIFYING PATTERN MAY BRING A SECOND ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER
INTO SATURDAY AS TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST. RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS
IN BRINGING A DRIER PATTERN STARTING SUNDAY AND PERSISTING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/17







000
FXUS64 KAMA 261113 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
613 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND FROM GENERALLY AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS FORECAST. SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A SEASONAL POLEWARD SHIFT OF STRONGER MEAN WESTERLY FLOW IS
UNDERWAY AND THESE CHANGES ARE MOST EVIDENT DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ONE MORE IN A SERIES OF BROAD AND FAIRLY DEEP TROUGHS WILL
TRAVERSE THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK BRINGING HIGH PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES. UNTIL THEN WEAKLY PERTURBED WESTERLIES WILL BE
PRESENT OVER US WITH A GRADUAL TENDENCY FOR MEAN HEIGHT RISES AND
RESULTANT WARMER TEMPERATURES EVEN ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS FOR A
CHANGE.

ONE SUCH WAVE IS EVIDENT OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS
MORNING IN WATER VAPOR AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH ITS PROGRESSION ACROSS THE PANHANDLES DURING THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. QUALITY
OF MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT TEMPERED BY CONVECTIVE
OVERTURNING FROM LARGE COMPLEX YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 00Z
SOUNDING FROM FORT WORTH SHOWS DRY LOW LEVELS WITH JUST A SHALLOW
NEAR SURFACE MOIST LAYER. NEVERTHELESS...TRAJECTORIES SHOULD BE FROM
FURTHER WEST WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TODAY HAVE SOME CONDITIONALITY. EVEN WITH WEAK ASCENT FROM
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE...BACKGROUND MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE
SIGNIFICANT AT AROUND 5 DM PER 12 HOURS. FURTHERMORE...ASCENT FROM
THE WEAK WAVE MAY BE MISALIGNED WITH WHEN BEST MOISTURE RETURN
AND MOST SIGNIFICANT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY OCCUR. FOR THIS
REASON HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES AND CONFINED THEM TO
ROUGHLY THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE PANHANDLES FROM MID/LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. IF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN FORM THEY COULD BECOME SEVERE GIVEN
MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL BUT SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR.

LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
COINCIDENT WITH ABOVE CLIMO TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR
HIGHS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING SIGNALING THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH. GRADUALLY LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURES AND STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES FAVOR
DEEP ANOMALOUS MOISTURE RETURN ONCE AGAIN WITH PWAT VALUES RISING
AROUND THE 75TH PERCENTILE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE MARKEDLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THURSDAY AS A LEAD WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
WEAKENING TROUGH AND DEAMPLIFYING PATTERN MAY BRING A SECOND ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER
INTO SATURDAY AS TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST. RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS
IN BRINGING A DRIER PATTERN STARTING SUNDAY AND PERSISTING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/17






000
FXUS64 KAMA 261113 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
613 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND FROM GENERALLY AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS FORECAST. SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A SEASONAL POLEWARD SHIFT OF STRONGER MEAN WESTERLY FLOW IS
UNDERWAY AND THESE CHANGES ARE MOST EVIDENT DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ONE MORE IN A SERIES OF BROAD AND FAIRLY DEEP TROUGHS WILL
TRAVERSE THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK BRINGING HIGH PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES. UNTIL THEN WEAKLY PERTURBED WESTERLIES WILL BE
PRESENT OVER US WITH A GRADUAL TENDENCY FOR MEAN HEIGHT RISES AND
RESULTANT WARMER TEMPERATURES EVEN ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS FOR A
CHANGE.

ONE SUCH WAVE IS EVIDENT OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS
MORNING IN WATER VAPOR AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH ITS PROGRESSION ACROSS THE PANHANDLES DURING THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. QUALITY
OF MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT TEMPERED BY CONVECTIVE
OVERTURNING FROM LARGE COMPLEX YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 00Z
SOUNDING FROM FORT WORTH SHOWS DRY LOW LEVELS WITH JUST A SHALLOW
NEAR SURFACE MOIST LAYER. NEVERTHELESS...TRAJECTORIES SHOULD BE FROM
FURTHER WEST WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TODAY HAVE SOME CONDITIONALITY. EVEN WITH WEAK ASCENT FROM
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE...BACKGROUND MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE
SIGNIFICANT AT AROUND 5 DM PER 12 HOURS. FURTHERMORE...ASCENT FROM
THE WEAK WAVE MAY BE MISALIGNED WITH WHEN BEST MOISTURE RETURN
AND MOST SIGNIFICANT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY OCCUR. FOR THIS
REASON HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES AND CONFINED THEM TO
ROUGHLY THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE PANHANDLES FROM MID/LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. IF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN FORM THEY COULD BECOME SEVERE GIVEN
MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL BUT SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR.

LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
COINCIDENT WITH ABOVE CLIMO TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR
HIGHS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING SIGNALING THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH. GRADUALLY LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURES AND STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES FAVOR
DEEP ANOMALOUS MOISTURE RETURN ONCE AGAIN WITH PWAT VALUES RISING
AROUND THE 75TH PERCENTILE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE MARKEDLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THURSDAY AS A LEAD WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
WEAKENING TROUGH AND DEAMPLIFYING PATTERN MAY BRING A SECOND ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER
INTO SATURDAY AS TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST. RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS
IN BRINGING A DRIER PATTERN STARTING SUNDAY AND PERSISTING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/17






000
FXUS64 KAMA 260934
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
434 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A SEASONAL POLEWARD SHIFT OF STRONGER MEAN WESTERLY FLOW IS
UNDERWAY AND THESE CHANGES ARE MOST EVIDENT DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ONE MORE IN A SERIES OF BROAD AND FAIRLY DEEP TROUGHS WILL
TRAVERSE THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK BRINGING HIGH PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES. UNTIL THEN WEAKLY PERTURBED WESTERLIES WILL BE
PRESENT OVER US WITH A GRADUAL TENDENCY FOR MEAN HEIGHT RISES AND
RESULTANT WARMER TEMPERATURES EVEN ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS FOR A
CHANGE.

ONE SUCH WAVE IS EVIDENT OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS
MORNING IN WATER VAPOR AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH ITS PROGRESSION ACROSS THE PANHANDLES DURING THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. QUALITY
OF MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT TEMPERED BY CONVECTIVE
OVERTURNING FROM LARGE COMPLEX YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 00Z
SOUNDING FROM FORT WORTH SHOWS DRY LOW LEVELS WITH JUST A SHALLOW
NEAR SURFACE MOIST LAYER. NEVERTHELESS...TRAJECTORIES SHOULD BE FROM
FURTHER WEST WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TODAY HAVE SOME CONDITIONALITY. EVEN WITH WEAK ASCENT FROM
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE...BACKGROUND MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE
SIGNIFICANT AT AROUND 5 DM PER 12 HOURS. FURTHERMORE...ASCENT FROM
THE WEAK WAVE MAY BE MISALIGNED WITH WHEN BEST MOISTURE RETURN
AND MOST SIGNIFICANT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY OCCUR. FOR THIS
REASON HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES AND CONFINED THEM TO
ROUGHLY THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE PANHANDLES FROM MID/LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. IF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN FORM THEY COULD BECOME SEVERE GIVEN
MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL BUT SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR.

LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
COINCIDENT WITH ABOVE CLIMO TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR
HIGHS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING SIGNALING THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH. GRADUALLY LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURES AND STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES FAVOR
DEEP ANOMALOUS MOISTURE RETURN ONCE AGAIN WITH PWAT VALUES RISING
AROUND THE 75TH PERCENTILE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE MARKEDLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THURSDAY AS A LEAD WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
WEAKENING TROUGH AND DEAMPLIFYING PATTERN MAY BRING A SECOND ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER
INTO SATURDAY AS TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST. RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS
IN BRINGING A DRIER PATTERN STARTING SUNDAY AND PERSISTING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                81  55  85  61  76 /  10   5  20  50  60
BEAVER OK                  81  56  83  62  81 /  20  20  30  60  50
BOISE CITY OK              76  52  82  58  78 /  10  10  20  40  40
BORGER TX                  82  58  84  63  79 /  10  10  20  50  60
BOYS RANCH TX              83  55  87  62  77 /  10   5  10  50  50
CANYON TX                  82  55  85  61  76 /  10   5  10  50  60
CLARENDON TX               83  57  84  62  76 /  20  10  20  50  60
DALHART TX                 79  54  85  59  76 /  10  10  20  40  50
GUYMON OK                  79  55  83  61  79 /  20  10  30  50  50
HEREFORD TX                83  55  87  61  76 /  10   5  10  50  60
LIPSCOMB TX                81  57  81  63  78 /  20  20  30  50  60
PAMPA TX                   80  56  81  61  76 /  20  10  20  50  60
SHAMROCK TX                82  58  83  63  76 /  20  20  20  50  60
WELLINGTON TX              84  60  86  65  78 /  20  10  20  50  50

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/17






000
FXUS64 KAMA 260934
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
434 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A SEASONAL POLEWARD SHIFT OF STRONGER MEAN WESTERLY FLOW IS
UNDERWAY AND THESE CHANGES ARE MOST EVIDENT DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ONE MORE IN A SERIES OF BROAD AND FAIRLY DEEP TROUGHS WILL
TRAVERSE THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK BRINGING HIGH PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES. UNTIL THEN WEAKLY PERTURBED WESTERLIES WILL BE
PRESENT OVER US WITH A GRADUAL TENDENCY FOR MEAN HEIGHT RISES AND
RESULTANT WARMER TEMPERATURES EVEN ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS FOR A
CHANGE.

ONE SUCH WAVE IS EVIDENT OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS
MORNING IN WATER VAPOR AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH ITS PROGRESSION ACROSS THE PANHANDLES DURING THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. QUALITY
OF MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT TEMPERED BY CONVECTIVE
OVERTURNING FROM LARGE COMPLEX YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 00Z
SOUNDING FROM FORT WORTH SHOWS DRY LOW LEVELS WITH JUST A SHALLOW
NEAR SURFACE MOIST LAYER. NEVERTHELESS...TRAJECTORIES SHOULD BE FROM
FURTHER WEST WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TODAY HAVE SOME CONDITIONALITY. EVEN WITH WEAK ASCENT FROM
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE...BACKGROUND MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE
SIGNIFICANT AT AROUND 5 DM PER 12 HOURS. FURTHERMORE...ASCENT FROM
THE WEAK WAVE MAY BE MISALIGNED WITH WHEN BEST MOISTURE RETURN
AND MOST SIGNIFICANT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY OCCUR. FOR THIS
REASON HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES AND CONFINED THEM TO
ROUGHLY THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE PANHANDLES FROM MID/LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. IF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN FORM THEY COULD BECOME SEVERE GIVEN
MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL BUT SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR.

LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
COINCIDENT WITH ABOVE CLIMO TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR
HIGHS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING SIGNALING THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH. GRADUALLY LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURES AND STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES FAVOR
DEEP ANOMALOUS MOISTURE RETURN ONCE AGAIN WITH PWAT VALUES RISING
AROUND THE 75TH PERCENTILE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE MARKEDLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THURSDAY AS A LEAD WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
WEAKENING TROUGH AND DEAMPLIFYING PATTERN MAY BRING A SECOND ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER
INTO SATURDAY AS TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST. RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS
IN BRINGING A DRIER PATTERN STARTING SUNDAY AND PERSISTING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                81  55  85  61  76 /  10   5  20  50  60
BEAVER OK                  81  56  83  62  81 /  20  20  30  60  50
BOISE CITY OK              76  52  82  58  78 /  10  10  20  40  40
BORGER TX                  82  58  84  63  79 /  10  10  20  50  60
BOYS RANCH TX              83  55  87  62  77 /  10   5  10  50  50
CANYON TX                  82  55  85  61  76 /  10   5  10  50  60
CLARENDON TX               83  57  84  62  76 /  20  10  20  50  60
DALHART TX                 79  54  85  59  76 /  10  10  20  40  50
GUYMON OK                  79  55  83  61  79 /  20  10  30  50  50
HEREFORD TX                83  55  87  61  76 /  10   5  10  50  60
LIPSCOMB TX                81  57  81  63  78 /  20  20  30  50  60
PAMPA TX                   80  56  81  61  76 /  20  10  20  50  60
SHAMROCK TX                82  58  83  63  76 /  20  20  20  50  60
WELLINGTON TX              84  60  86  65  78 /  20  10  20  50  50

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/17






000
FXUS64 KAMA 260357 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1057 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED IN MVFR CIG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT SO HAVE REVERTED BACK TO A SCT MVFR DECK UNTIL AROUND MID
MORNING TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SEWD ACROSS THE AREA
WITH WINDS BECOMING N TO NE AT ALL TAF SITES FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE.
ISOLD TSTMS PSBL LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW IN STORM DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE...HAVE ELECTED NOT TO
MENTION DURG THIS TIME PERIOD.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...ISOLD TSTMS PSBL THIS EVENING...BUT DID NOT
INCLUDE IN THIS FCST CYCLE DUE TO THE EXPECTED ISOLD COVERAGE AT BEST
IF ANY STORMS FORM AT ALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SEWD ACROSS
THE AREA WITH WINDS BECOMING N TO NE AT ALL TAF SITES FOLLOWING ITS
PASSAGE. MVFR TO NEAR IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KGUY AND KAMA
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING LATER THAT DAY.
ISOLD TSTMS PSBL LATE TUE AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN
STORM DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE...HAVE ELECTED NOT TO MENTION DURG THIS
TIME PERIOD AS WELL.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DRYLINE WHICH WAS EARLIER FRACTURED BY OUTFLOW EMANATING FROM
THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE SOUTH IS NOW IN THE PROCESS OF SOLIDIFYING
OVER WESTERN SECTIONS.  CLEARING OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
SECTIONS IS LEADING TO DESTABILIZATION OF AIRMASS.  WITH SHORTWAVE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM WEST THIS EVENING...HAVE INCLUDED POPS IN
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS THIS EVENING.  NO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HAVE INCREASED POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO
EXPECTED INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SHARPENING OF DRYLINE.  MOISTURE
FEED CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS KEPT FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 260357 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1057 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED IN MVFR CIG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT SO HAVE REVERTED BACK TO A SCT MVFR DECK UNTIL AROUND MID
MORNING TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SEWD ACROSS THE AREA
WITH WINDS BECOMING N TO NE AT ALL TAF SITES FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE.
ISOLD TSTMS PSBL LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW IN STORM DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE...HAVE ELECTED NOT TO
MENTION DURG THIS TIME PERIOD.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...ISOLD TSTMS PSBL THIS EVENING...BUT DID NOT
INCLUDE IN THIS FCST CYCLE DUE TO THE EXPECTED ISOLD COVERAGE AT BEST
IF ANY STORMS FORM AT ALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SEWD ACROSS
THE AREA WITH WINDS BECOMING N TO NE AT ALL TAF SITES FOLLOWING ITS
PASSAGE. MVFR TO NEAR IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KGUY AND KAMA
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING LATER THAT DAY.
ISOLD TSTMS PSBL LATE TUE AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN
STORM DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE...HAVE ELECTED NOT TO MENTION DURG THIS
TIME PERIOD AS WELL.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DRYLINE WHICH WAS EARLIER FRACTURED BY OUTFLOW EMANATING FROM
THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE SOUTH IS NOW IN THE PROCESS OF SOLIDIFYING
OVER WESTERN SECTIONS.  CLEARING OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
SECTIONS IS LEADING TO DESTABILIZATION OF AIRMASS.  WITH SHORTWAVE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM WEST THIS EVENING...HAVE INCLUDED POPS IN
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS THIS EVENING.  NO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HAVE INCREASED POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO
EXPECTED INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SHARPENING OF DRYLINE.  MOISTURE
FEED CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS KEPT FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 252338 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
638 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...ISOLD TSTMS PSBL THIS EVENING...BUT DID NOT
INCLUDE IN THIS FCST CYCLE DUE TO THE EXPECTED ISOLD COVERAGE AT BEST
IF ANY STORMS FORM AT ALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SEWD ACROSS
THE AREA WITH WINDS BECOMING N TO NE AT ALL TAF SITES FOLLOWING ITS
PASSAGE. MVFR TO NEAR IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KGUY AND KAMA
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING LATER THAT DAY.
ISOLD TSTMS PSBL LATE TUE AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN
STORM DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE...HAVE ELECTED NOT TO MENTION DURG THIS
TIME PERIOD AS WELL.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DRYLINE WHICH WAS EARLIER FRACTURED BY OUTFLOW EMANATING FROM
THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE SOUTH IS NOW IN THE PROCESS OF SOLIDIFYING
OVER WESTERN SECTIONS.  CLEARING OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
SECTIONS IS LEADING TO DESTABILIZATION OF AIRMASS.  WITH SHORTWAVE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM WEST THIS EVENING...HAVE INCLUDED POPS IN
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS THIS EVENING.  NO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HAVE INCREASED POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO
EXPECTED INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SHARPENING OF DRYLINE.  MOISTURE
FEED CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS KEPT FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 252338 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
638 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...ISOLD TSTMS PSBL THIS EVENING...BUT DID NOT
INCLUDE IN THIS FCST CYCLE DUE TO THE EXPECTED ISOLD COVERAGE AT BEST
IF ANY STORMS FORM AT ALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SEWD ACROSS
THE AREA WITH WINDS BECOMING N TO NE AT ALL TAF SITES FOLLOWING ITS
PASSAGE. MVFR TO NEAR IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KGUY AND KAMA
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING LATER THAT DAY.
ISOLD TSTMS PSBL LATE TUE AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN
STORM DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE...HAVE ELECTED NOT TO MENTION DURG THIS
TIME PERIOD AS WELL.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DRYLINE WHICH WAS EARLIER FRACTURED BY OUTFLOW EMANATING FROM
THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE SOUTH IS NOW IN THE PROCESS OF SOLIDIFYING
OVER WESTERN SECTIONS.  CLEARING OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
SECTIONS IS LEADING TO DESTABILIZATION OF AIRMASS.  WITH SHORTWAVE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM WEST THIS EVENING...HAVE INCLUDED POPS IN
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS THIS EVENING.  NO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HAVE INCREASED POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO
EXPECTED INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SHARPENING OF DRYLINE.  MOISTURE
FEED CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS KEPT FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 252338 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
638 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...ISOLD TSTMS PSBL THIS EVENING...BUT DID NOT
INCLUDE IN THIS FCST CYCLE DUE TO THE EXPECTED ISOLD COVERAGE AT BEST
IF ANY STORMS FORM AT ALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SEWD ACROSS
THE AREA WITH WINDS BECOMING N TO NE AT ALL TAF SITES FOLLOWING ITS
PASSAGE. MVFR TO NEAR IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KGUY AND KAMA
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING LATER THAT DAY.
ISOLD TSTMS PSBL LATE TUE AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN
STORM DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE...HAVE ELECTED NOT TO MENTION DURG THIS
TIME PERIOD AS WELL.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DRYLINE WHICH WAS EARLIER FRACTURED BY OUTFLOW EMANATING FROM
THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE SOUTH IS NOW IN THE PROCESS OF SOLIDIFYING
OVER WESTERN SECTIONS.  CLEARING OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
SECTIONS IS LEADING TO DESTABILIZATION OF AIRMASS.  WITH SHORTWAVE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM WEST THIS EVENING...HAVE INCLUDED POPS IN
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS THIS EVENING.  NO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HAVE INCREASED POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO
EXPECTED INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SHARPENING OF DRYLINE.  MOISTURE
FEED CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS KEPT FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 252116
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
416 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DRYLINE WHICH WAS EARLIER FRACTURED BY OUTFLOW EMANATING FROM
THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE SOUTH IS NOW IN THE PROCESS OF SOLIDIFYING
OVER WESTERN SECTIONS.  CLEARING OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
SECTIONS IS LEADING TO DESTABILIZATION OF AIRMASS.  WITH SHORTWAVE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM WEST THIS EVENING...HAVE INCLUDED POPS IN
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS THIS EVENING.  NO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HAVE INCREASED POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO
EXPECTED INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SHARPENING OF DRYLINE.  MOISTURE
FEED CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS KEPT FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

COCKRELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                52  80  56  84  61 /  20  10  10  20  30
BEAVER OK                  53  80  56  84  64 /  20  20  20  40  50
BOISE CITY OK              50  76  52  82  57 /  20  20  10  30  30
BORGER TX                  54  81  58  85  64 /  20  20  10  20  30
BOYS RANCH TX              52  81  55  86  60 /  20  10  10  20  30
CANYON TX                  52  81  56  84  61 /  20  10   5  20  30
CLARENDON TX               55  83  58  84  63 /  20  20  10  20  30
DALHART TX                 51  78  54  84  58 /  20  10  10  20  30
GUYMON OK                  53  79  56  84  62 /  20  20  10  40  30
HEREFORD TX                52  82  56  85  61 /  20   5   5  10  30
LIPSCOMB TX                54  81  57  83  64 /  20  20  20  30  40
PAMPA TX                   53  79  56  82  62 /  20  20  10  20  40
SHAMROCK TX                55  80  58  83  64 /  20  20  20  20  40
WELLINGTON TX              57  83  60  86  66 /  20  20  10  20  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

18/03






000
FXUS64 KAMA 252116
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
416 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DRYLINE WHICH WAS EARLIER FRACTURED BY OUTFLOW EMANATING FROM
THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE SOUTH IS NOW IN THE PROCESS OF SOLIDIFYING
OVER WESTERN SECTIONS.  CLEARING OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
SECTIONS IS LEADING TO DESTABILIZATION OF AIRMASS.  WITH SHORTWAVE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM WEST THIS EVENING...HAVE INCLUDED POPS IN
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS THIS EVENING.  NO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HAVE INCREASED POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO
EXPECTED INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SHARPENING OF DRYLINE.  MOISTURE
FEED CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS KEPT FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

COCKRELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                52  80  56  84  61 /  20  10  10  20  30
BEAVER OK                  53  80  56  84  64 /  20  20  20  40  50
BOISE CITY OK              50  76  52  82  57 /  20  20  10  30  30
BORGER TX                  54  81  58  85  64 /  20  20  10  20  30
BOYS RANCH TX              52  81  55  86  60 /  20  10  10  20  30
CANYON TX                  52  81  56  84  61 /  20  10   5  20  30
CLARENDON TX               55  83  58  84  63 /  20  20  10  20  30
DALHART TX                 51  78  54  84  58 /  20  10  10  20  30
GUYMON OK                  53  79  56  84  62 /  20  20  10  40  30
HEREFORD TX                52  82  56  85  61 /  20   5   5  10  30
LIPSCOMB TX                54  81  57  83  64 /  20  20  20  30  40
PAMPA TX                   53  79  56  82  62 /  20  20  10  20  40
SHAMROCK TX                55  80  58  83  64 /  20  20  20  20  40
WELLINGTON TX              57  83  60  86  66 /  20  20  10  20  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

18/03







    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities