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000
FXUS64 KAMA 030401 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1101 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS AVIATION AFD REASONING.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST
FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS OF THIS FCST...WITH GREATEST THREAT AT KAMA...
FOLLOWED BY KDHT. IT APPEARS KGUY WILL HAVE THE LEAST LIKELIHOOD OF
BEING IMPACTED BY TSTMS DURG THE EARLY PART OF THIS FCST CYCLE SO
HAVE OMITTED MENTION. STILL SOME CONCERN FOR LOW CIGS EARLY THIS
MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THIS ISSUE SO HAVE CONTINUED
TO COMPROMISE WITH A SCT MVFR DECK AT ALL SITES. ANOTHER ROUND OF
TSTMS IS PSBL MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHERE
STORMS MAY FORM AND WHETHER OR NOT A PARTICULAR TAF SITE IS AFFECTED
PRECLUDES A MENTION AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA
MAY POSE A THREAT TO THE TERMINAL SITES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
HAVE RETAINED VCTS AT ALL STIES FROM ABOUT 02Z UNTIL 08Z. SHORT RANGE
MODELS DISAGREE AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE LOW CIGS AND BR
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. HAVE COMPROMISED AND RETAINED
PREVIOUS FCST ON THIS ISSUE BY INCLUDING A SCT LOW DECK AT ALL SITES
AS WELL AS A MINOR VSBY RESTRICTION DUE TO BR AT BOTH KGUY AND KDHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE
OMITTED MENTION AT ANY ONE TAF SITE FOR THIS FCST SINCE IT IS NEAR
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.  CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN REACHED...WITH VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING MODEST TO HEALTHY CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.  DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED TO BE AUGMENTED BY WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA AND LOW-LEVEL JET.
HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO BE MAIN THREAT TONIGHT.

MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT STILL LOOK TO BE TIME OF GREATEST
CONCERN.  700 MB TROF AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO
CREATE INCREASING SHEAR...LEADING TO ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.  IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS...
A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST.  60 MPH
WINDS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL EXPECTED TO BE MAIN SEVERE THREATS.

LOW POPS RETAINED IN EAST AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
WHERE INSTABILITY AND FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO BE MAXIMIZED.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY KEPT DRY...WITH LOW POPS RETAINED FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 030401 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1101 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS AVIATION AFD REASONING.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST
FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS OF THIS FCST...WITH GREATEST THREAT AT KAMA...
FOLLOWED BY KDHT. IT APPEARS KGUY WILL HAVE THE LEAST LIKELIHOOD OF
BEING IMPACTED BY TSTMS DURG THE EARLY PART OF THIS FCST CYCLE SO
HAVE OMITTED MENTION. STILL SOME CONCERN FOR LOW CIGS EARLY THIS
MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THIS ISSUE SO HAVE CONTINUED
TO COMPROMISE WITH A SCT MVFR DECK AT ALL SITES. ANOTHER ROUND OF
TSTMS IS PSBL MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHERE
STORMS MAY FORM AND WHETHER OR NOT A PARTICULAR TAF SITE IS AFFECTED
PRECLUDES A MENTION AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA
MAY POSE A THREAT TO THE TERMINAL SITES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
HAVE RETAINED VCTS AT ALL STIES FROM ABOUT 02Z UNTIL 08Z. SHORT RANGE
MODELS DISAGREE AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE LOW CIGS AND BR
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. HAVE COMPROMISED AND RETAINED
PREVIOUS FCST ON THIS ISSUE BY INCLUDING A SCT LOW DECK AT ALL SITES
AS WELL AS A MINOR VSBY RESTRICTION DUE TO BR AT BOTH KGUY AND KDHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE
OMITTED MENTION AT ANY ONE TAF SITE FOR THIS FCST SINCE IT IS NEAR
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.  CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN REACHED...WITH VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING MODEST TO HEALTHY CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.  DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED TO BE AUGMENTED BY WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA AND LOW-LEVEL JET.
HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO BE MAIN THREAT TONIGHT.

MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT STILL LOOK TO BE TIME OF GREATEST
CONCERN.  700 MB TROF AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO
CREATE INCREASING SHEAR...LEADING TO ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.  IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS...
A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST.  60 MPH
WINDS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL EXPECTED TO BE MAIN SEVERE THREATS.

LOW POPS RETAINED IN EAST AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
WHERE INSTABILITY AND FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO BE MAXIMIZED.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY KEPT DRY...WITH LOW POPS RETAINED FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 022359 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
659 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA
MAY POSE A THREAT TO THE TERMINAL SITES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
HAVE RETAINED VCTS AT ALL STIES FROM ABOUT 02Z UNTIL 08Z. SHORT RANGE
MODELS DISAGREE AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE LOW CIGS AND BR
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. HAVE COMPROMISED AND RETAINED
PREVIOUS FCST ON THIS ISSUE BY INCLUDING A SCT LOW DECK AT ALL SITES
AS WELL AS A MINOR VSBY RESTRICTION DUE TO BR AT BOTH KGUY AND KDHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE
OMITTED MENTION AT ANY ONE TAF SITE FOR THIS FCST SINCE IT IS NEAR
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.  CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN REACHED...WITH VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING MODEST TO HEALTHY CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.  DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED TO BE AUGMENTED BY WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA AND LOW-LEVEL JET.
HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO BE MAIN THREAT TONIGHT.

MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT STILL LOOK TO BE TIME OF GREATEST
CONCERN.  700 MB TROF AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO
CREATE INCREASING SHEAR...LEADING TO ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.  IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS...
A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST.  60 MPH
WINDS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL EXPECTED TO BE MAIN SEVERE THREATS.

LOW POPS RETAINED IN EAST AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
WHERE INSTABILITY AND FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO BE MAXIMIZED.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY KEPT DRY...WITH LOW POPS RETAINED FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KAMA 022359 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
659 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA
MAY POSE A THREAT TO THE TERMINAL SITES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
HAVE RETAINED VCTS AT ALL STIES FROM ABOUT 02Z UNTIL 08Z. SHORT RANGE
MODELS DISAGREE AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE LOW CIGS AND BR
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. HAVE COMPROMISED AND RETAINED
PREVIOUS FCST ON THIS ISSUE BY INCLUDING A SCT LOW DECK AT ALL SITES
AS WELL AS A MINOR VSBY RESTRICTION DUE TO BR AT BOTH KGUY AND KDHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE
OMITTED MENTION AT ANY ONE TAF SITE FOR THIS FCST SINCE IT IS NEAR
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.  CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN REACHED...WITH VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING MODEST TO HEALTHY CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.  DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED TO BE AUGMENTED BY WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA AND LOW-LEVEL JET.
HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO BE MAIN THREAT TONIGHT.

MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT STILL LOOK TO BE TIME OF GREATEST
CONCERN.  700 MB TROF AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO
CREATE INCREASING SHEAR...LEADING TO ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.  IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS...
A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST.  60 MPH
WINDS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL EXPECTED TO BE MAIN SEVERE THREATS.

LOW POPS RETAINED IN EAST AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
WHERE INSTABILITY AND FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO BE MAXIMIZED.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY KEPT DRY...WITH LOW POPS RETAINED FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KAMA 022359 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
659 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA
MAY POSE A THREAT TO THE TERMINAL SITES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
HAVE RETAINED VCTS AT ALL STIES FROM ABOUT 02Z UNTIL 08Z. SHORT RANGE
MODELS DISAGREE AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE LOW CIGS AND BR
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. HAVE COMPROMISED AND RETAINED
PREVIOUS FCST ON THIS ISSUE BY INCLUDING A SCT LOW DECK AT ALL SITES
AS WELL AS A MINOR VSBY RESTRICTION DUE TO BR AT BOTH KGUY AND KDHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE
OMITTED MENTION AT ANY ONE TAF SITE FOR THIS FCST SINCE IT IS NEAR
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.  CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN REACHED...WITH VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING MODEST TO HEALTHY CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.  DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED TO BE AUGMENTED BY WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA AND LOW-LEVEL JET.
HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO BE MAIN THREAT TONIGHT.

MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT STILL LOOK TO BE TIME OF GREATEST
CONCERN.  700 MB TROF AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO
CREATE INCREASING SHEAR...LEADING TO ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.  IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS...
A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST.  60 MPH
WINDS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL EXPECTED TO BE MAIN SEVERE THREATS.

LOW POPS RETAINED IN EAST AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
WHERE INSTABILITY AND FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO BE MAXIMIZED.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY KEPT DRY...WITH LOW POPS RETAINED FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 022046
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
345 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.  CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN REACHED...WITH VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING MODEST TO HEALTHY CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.  DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED TO BE AUGMENTED BY WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA AND LOW-LEVEL JET.
HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO BE MAIN THREAT TONIGHT.

MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT STILL LOOK TO BE TIME OF GREATEST
CONCERN.  700 MB TROF AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO
CREATE INCREASING SHEAR...LEADING TO ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.  IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS...
A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST.  60 MPH
WINDS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL EXPECTED TO BE MAIN SEVERE THREATS.

LOW POPS RETAINED IN EAST AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
WHERE INSTABILITY AND FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO BE MAXIMIZED.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY KEPT DRY...WITH LOW POPS RETAINED FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

COCKRELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                64  88  67  93  68 /  40  40  40  10   5
BEAVER OK                  69  91  68  92  68 /  30  40  60  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              64  88  63  92  64 /  40  50  50  10   5
BORGER TX                  69  90  69  95  70 /  40  40  50  10  10
BOYS RANCH TX              66  92  67  95  68 /  40  40  40  10   5
CANYON TX                  65  90  66  95  69 /  50  40  40  10   5
CLARENDON TX               67  90  69  95  70 /  40  40  40  10  10
DALHART TX                 66  90  64  94  65 /  40  40  50  10   5
GUYMON OK                  68  89  66  93  67 /  40  40  60  20   5
HEREFORD TX                66  90  67  95  67 /  50  40  40  10   5
LIPSCOMB TX                70  91  69  93  69 /  40  30  60  20  20
PAMPA TX                   65  87  67  93  67 /  40  40  50  20  10
SHAMROCK TX                68  90  69  95  69 /  40  30  50  20  10
WELLINGTON TX              69  91  71  98  71 /  40  30  40  20  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

88/03





000
FXUS64 KAMA 021857 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
157 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING TAF SITES ARE MAIN CONCERN ATTM. SCT TSTMS
WILL DEVELOP AND COULD IMPACT TAF SITES MAINLY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. EXACT TIMING IS DIFFICULT ABUT PROVIDED BEST CHC IN PROB30
GROUPS FOR NOW WITHOUT IMPACTING FLIGHT LEVELS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. MAY
HAVE A LITTLE BETTER CHC OF SEEING SOME LOW STRATUS WITH IFR
CONDITIONS ESP AT DHT TONIGHT GIVEN A BIT MORE OF A SERLY WIND
PROFILE...BUT STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO RESTRICT IN TAFS AND
OPTED TO SHOW A SCT IFR DECK INSTEAD TO CONVEY THE POTENTIAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

AVIATION...
THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL LEAD TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR
THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. BOTH KGUY AND KDHT HAVE BEEN CONVECTION FREE
FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT KAMA IS IN AN AREA WHERE STORMS
COULD DEVELOP DIRECTLY OVER THE TERMINAL AS WAS THE CASE OVER THE
PAST HOUR. THE CHANCE WILL REMAIN FOR ANOTHER STORMS AT KAMA ROUGHLY
UNTIL 15Z. THEN WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN CONVECTION FOR THE BETTER
PART OF THE DAY. DURING THIS TIME VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS. AFTER 00Z THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOPS. HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 CHANCE FOR ALL TERMINALS DUE TO THE
SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER MORNING OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THIS TIME A
BIT FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SEEMS TO
HAVE FINALLY AMPLIFIED ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO SETUP A MORE WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY STORM MOTION. STORMS COULD REMAIN TOGETHER UNTIL NEAR
DAYBREAK...ALLOWING PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PANHANDLES TO
PICK UP ANOTHER WIDESPREAD 0.5 TO 1 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH TOTALS
CLOSER TO 2 AND POSSIBLY 3 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN TAXES COUNTY AND
MOST OF HANSFORD COUNTY. ANOTHER LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...THOUGH LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
WILL LIKELY ALLOW AT LEAST ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. GREATER COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE LATER ON DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST...LOW LEVEL JET AND SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE
PANHANDLES STRENGTHEN. PWAT VALUES ARE NOT AS HIGH AS PREVIOUS
DAYS...BUT ARE STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 1.50 INCHES OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES. SLOW STORM MOTION...COMBINED WITH
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING STORMS WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING AS THE PRIMARY
CONCERN. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE A HAZARD FROM THE STRONGER
STORMS THAT FORM. MONDAY LOOKS FAIRLY SIMILAR...PERHAPS WITH GREATER
COVERAGE OF STORMS AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ARRIVES DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE FLOW TO
ALSO ASSIST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

MODELS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN MOVING THE RIDGE AXIS EAST...BUT ARE
SLOWLY MOVING IT FURTHER INTO THE WORKWEEK. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ON TUESDAY FOR THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...THEN DRY THINGS OUT
MIDWEEK...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT SUPER HIGH THAT THIS SCENARIO WILL
PLAY OUT. MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN BY THE
WEEKEND AND ENDING THE POTENTIAL REPRIEVE OF EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

88/03







000
FXUS64 KAMA 021857 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
157 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING TAF SITES ARE MAIN CONCERN ATTM. SCT TSTMS
WILL DEVELOP AND COULD IMPACT TAF SITES MAINLY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. EXACT TIMING IS DIFFICULT ABUT PROVIDED BEST CHC IN PROB30
GROUPS FOR NOW WITHOUT IMPACTING FLIGHT LEVELS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. MAY
HAVE A LITTLE BETTER CHC OF SEEING SOME LOW STRATUS WITH IFR
CONDITIONS ESP AT DHT TONIGHT GIVEN A BIT MORE OF A SERLY WIND
PROFILE...BUT STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO RESTRICT IN TAFS AND
OPTED TO SHOW A SCT IFR DECK INSTEAD TO CONVEY THE POTENTIAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

AVIATION...
THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL LEAD TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR
THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. BOTH KGUY AND KDHT HAVE BEEN CONVECTION FREE
FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT KAMA IS IN AN AREA WHERE STORMS
COULD DEVELOP DIRECTLY OVER THE TERMINAL AS WAS THE CASE OVER THE
PAST HOUR. THE CHANCE WILL REMAIN FOR ANOTHER STORMS AT KAMA ROUGHLY
UNTIL 15Z. THEN WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN CONVECTION FOR THE BETTER
PART OF THE DAY. DURING THIS TIME VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS. AFTER 00Z THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOPS. HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 CHANCE FOR ALL TERMINALS DUE TO THE
SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER MORNING OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THIS TIME A
BIT FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SEEMS TO
HAVE FINALLY AMPLIFIED ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO SETUP A MORE WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY STORM MOTION. STORMS COULD REMAIN TOGETHER UNTIL NEAR
DAYBREAK...ALLOWING PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PANHANDLES TO
PICK UP ANOTHER WIDESPREAD 0.5 TO 1 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH TOTALS
CLOSER TO 2 AND POSSIBLY 3 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN TAXES COUNTY AND
MOST OF HANSFORD COUNTY. ANOTHER LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...THOUGH LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
WILL LIKELY ALLOW AT LEAST ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. GREATER COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE LATER ON DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST...LOW LEVEL JET AND SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE
PANHANDLES STRENGTHEN. PWAT VALUES ARE NOT AS HIGH AS PREVIOUS
DAYS...BUT ARE STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 1.50 INCHES OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES. SLOW STORM MOTION...COMBINED WITH
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING STORMS WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING AS THE PRIMARY
CONCERN. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE A HAZARD FROM THE STRONGER
STORMS THAT FORM. MONDAY LOOKS FAIRLY SIMILAR...PERHAPS WITH GREATER
COVERAGE OF STORMS AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ARRIVES DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE FLOW TO
ALSO ASSIST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

MODELS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN MOVING THE RIDGE AXIS EAST...BUT ARE
SLOWLY MOVING IT FURTHER INTO THE WORKWEEK. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ON TUESDAY FOR THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...THEN DRY THINGS OUT
MIDWEEK...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT SUPER HIGH THAT THIS SCENARIO WILL
PLAY OUT. MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN BY THE
WEEKEND AND ENDING THE POTENTIAL REPRIEVE OF EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

88/03






000
FXUS64 KAMA 021857 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
157 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING TAF SITES ARE MAIN CONCERN ATTM. SCT TSTMS
WILL DEVELOP AND COULD IMPACT TAF SITES MAINLY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. EXACT TIMING IS DIFFICULT ABUT PROVIDED BEST CHC IN PROB30
GROUPS FOR NOW WITHOUT IMPACTING FLIGHT LEVELS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. MAY
HAVE A LITTLE BETTER CHC OF SEEING SOME LOW STRATUS WITH IFR
CONDITIONS ESP AT DHT TONIGHT GIVEN A BIT MORE OF A SERLY WIND
PROFILE...BUT STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO RESTRICT IN TAFS AND
OPTED TO SHOW A SCT IFR DECK INSTEAD TO CONVEY THE POTENTIAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

AVIATION...
THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL LEAD TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR
THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. BOTH KGUY AND KDHT HAVE BEEN CONVECTION FREE
FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT KAMA IS IN AN AREA WHERE STORMS
COULD DEVELOP DIRECTLY OVER THE TERMINAL AS WAS THE CASE OVER THE
PAST HOUR. THE CHANCE WILL REMAIN FOR ANOTHER STORMS AT KAMA ROUGHLY
UNTIL 15Z. THEN WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN CONVECTION FOR THE BETTER
PART OF THE DAY. DURING THIS TIME VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS. AFTER 00Z THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOPS. HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 CHANCE FOR ALL TERMINALS DUE TO THE
SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER MORNING OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THIS TIME A
BIT FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SEEMS TO
HAVE FINALLY AMPLIFIED ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO SETUP A MORE WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY STORM MOTION. STORMS COULD REMAIN TOGETHER UNTIL NEAR
DAYBREAK...ALLOWING PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PANHANDLES TO
PICK UP ANOTHER WIDESPREAD 0.5 TO 1 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH TOTALS
CLOSER TO 2 AND POSSIBLY 3 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN TAXES COUNTY AND
MOST OF HANSFORD COUNTY. ANOTHER LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...THOUGH LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
WILL LIKELY ALLOW AT LEAST ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. GREATER COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE LATER ON DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST...LOW LEVEL JET AND SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE
PANHANDLES STRENGTHEN. PWAT VALUES ARE NOT AS HIGH AS PREVIOUS
DAYS...BUT ARE STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 1.50 INCHES OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES. SLOW STORM MOTION...COMBINED WITH
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING STORMS WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING AS THE PRIMARY
CONCERN. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE A HAZARD FROM THE STRONGER
STORMS THAT FORM. MONDAY LOOKS FAIRLY SIMILAR...PERHAPS WITH GREATER
COVERAGE OF STORMS AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ARRIVES DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE FLOW TO
ALSO ASSIST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

MODELS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN MOVING THE RIDGE AXIS EAST...BUT ARE
SLOWLY MOVING IT FURTHER INTO THE WORKWEEK. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ON TUESDAY FOR THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...THEN DRY THINGS OUT
MIDWEEK...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT SUPER HIGH THAT THIS SCENARIO WILL
PLAY OUT. MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN BY THE
WEEKEND AND ENDING THE POTENTIAL REPRIEVE OF EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

88/03







000
FXUS64 KAMA 021857 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
157 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING TAF SITES ARE MAIN CONCERN ATTM. SCT TSTMS
WILL DEVELOP AND COULD IMPACT TAF SITES MAINLY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. EXACT TIMING IS DIFFICULT ABUT PROVIDED BEST CHC IN PROB30
GROUPS FOR NOW WITHOUT IMPACTING FLIGHT LEVELS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. MAY
HAVE A LITTLE BETTER CHC OF SEEING SOME LOW STRATUS WITH IFR
CONDITIONS ESP AT DHT TONIGHT GIVEN A BIT MORE OF A SERLY WIND
PROFILE...BUT STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO RESTRICT IN TAFS AND
OPTED TO SHOW A SCT IFR DECK INSTEAD TO CONVEY THE POTENTIAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

AVIATION...
THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL LEAD TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR
THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. BOTH KGUY AND KDHT HAVE BEEN CONVECTION FREE
FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT KAMA IS IN AN AREA WHERE STORMS
COULD DEVELOP DIRECTLY OVER THE TERMINAL AS WAS THE CASE OVER THE
PAST HOUR. THE CHANCE WILL REMAIN FOR ANOTHER STORMS AT KAMA ROUGHLY
UNTIL 15Z. THEN WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN CONVECTION FOR THE BETTER
PART OF THE DAY. DURING THIS TIME VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS. AFTER 00Z THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOPS. HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 CHANCE FOR ALL TERMINALS DUE TO THE
SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER MORNING OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THIS TIME A
BIT FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SEEMS TO
HAVE FINALLY AMPLIFIED ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO SETUP A MORE WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY STORM MOTION. STORMS COULD REMAIN TOGETHER UNTIL NEAR
DAYBREAK...ALLOWING PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PANHANDLES TO
PICK UP ANOTHER WIDESPREAD 0.5 TO 1 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH TOTALS
CLOSER TO 2 AND POSSIBLY 3 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN TAXES COUNTY AND
MOST OF HANSFORD COUNTY. ANOTHER LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...THOUGH LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
WILL LIKELY ALLOW AT LEAST ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. GREATER COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE LATER ON DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST...LOW LEVEL JET AND SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE
PANHANDLES STRENGTHEN. PWAT VALUES ARE NOT AS HIGH AS PREVIOUS
DAYS...BUT ARE STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 1.50 INCHES OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES. SLOW STORM MOTION...COMBINED WITH
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING STORMS WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING AS THE PRIMARY
CONCERN. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE A HAZARD FROM THE STRONGER
STORMS THAT FORM. MONDAY LOOKS FAIRLY SIMILAR...PERHAPS WITH GREATER
COVERAGE OF STORMS AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ARRIVES DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE FLOW TO
ALSO ASSIST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

MODELS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN MOVING THE RIDGE AXIS EAST...BUT ARE
SLOWLY MOVING IT FURTHER INTO THE WORKWEEK. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ON TUESDAY FOR THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...THEN DRY THINGS OUT
MIDWEEK...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT SUPER HIGH THAT THIS SCENARIO WILL
PLAY OUT. MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN BY THE
WEEKEND AND ENDING THE POTENTIAL REPRIEVE OF EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

88/03






000
FXUS64 KAMA 021127
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
627 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...
THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL LEAD TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR
THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. BOTH KGUY AND KDHT HAVE BEEN CONVECTION FREE
FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT KAMA IS IN AN AREA WHERE STORMS
COULD DEVELOP DIRECTLY OVER THE TERMINAL AS WAS THE CASE OVER THE
PAST HOUR. THE CHANCE WILL REMAIN FOR ANOTHER STORMS AT KAMA ROUGHLY
UNTIL 15Z. THEN WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN CONVECTION FOR THE BETTER
PART OF THE DAY. DURING THIS TIME VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS. AFTER 00Z THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOPS. HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 CHANCE FOR ALL TERMINALS DUE TO THE
SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER MORNING OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THIS TIME A
BIT FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SEEMS TO
HAVE FINALLY AMPLIFIED ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO SETUP A MORE WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY STORM MOTION. STORMS COULD REMAIN TOGETHER UNTIL NEAR
DAYBREAK...ALLOWING PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PANHANDLES TO
PICK UP ANOTHER WIDESPREAD 0.5 TO 1 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH TOTALS
CLOSER TO 2 AND POSSIBLY 3 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN TAXES COUNTY AND
MOST OF HANSFORD COUNTY. ANOTHER LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...THOUGH LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
WILL LIKELY ALLOW AT LEAST ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. GREATER COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE LATER ON DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST...LOW LEVEL JET AND SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE
PANHANDLES STRENGTHEN. PWAT VALUES ARE NOT AS HIGH AS PREVIOUS
DAYS...BUT ARE STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 1.50 INCHES OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES. SLOW STORM MOTION...COMBINED WITH
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING STORMS WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING AS THE PRIMARY
CONCERN. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE A HAZARD FROM THE STRONGER
STORMS THAT FORM. MONDAY LOOKS FAIRLY SIMILAR...PERHAPS WITH GREATER
COVERAGE OF STORMS AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ARRIVES DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE FLOW TO
ALSO ASSIST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

MODELS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN MOVING THE RIDGE AXIS EAST...BUT ARE
SLOWLY MOVING IT FURTHER INTO THE WORKWEEK. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ON TUESDAY FOR THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...THEN DRY THINGS OUT
MIDWEEK...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT SUPER HIGH THAT THIS SCENARIO WILL
PLAY OUT. MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN BY THE
WEEKEND AND ENDING THE POTENTIAL REPRIEVE OF EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/18






000
FXUS64 KAMA 021127
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
627 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...
THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL LEAD TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR
THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. BOTH KGUY AND KDHT HAVE BEEN CONVECTION FREE
FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT KAMA IS IN AN AREA WHERE STORMS
COULD DEVELOP DIRECTLY OVER THE TERMINAL AS WAS THE CASE OVER THE
PAST HOUR. THE CHANCE WILL REMAIN FOR ANOTHER STORMS AT KAMA ROUGHLY
UNTIL 15Z. THEN WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN CONVECTION FOR THE BETTER
PART OF THE DAY. DURING THIS TIME VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS. AFTER 00Z THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOPS. HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 CHANCE FOR ALL TERMINALS DUE TO THE
SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER MORNING OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THIS TIME A
BIT FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SEEMS TO
HAVE FINALLY AMPLIFIED ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO SETUP A MORE WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY STORM MOTION. STORMS COULD REMAIN TOGETHER UNTIL NEAR
DAYBREAK...ALLOWING PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PANHANDLES TO
PICK UP ANOTHER WIDESPREAD 0.5 TO 1 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH TOTALS
CLOSER TO 2 AND POSSIBLY 3 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN TAXES COUNTY AND
MOST OF HANSFORD COUNTY. ANOTHER LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...THOUGH LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
WILL LIKELY ALLOW AT LEAST ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. GREATER COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE LATER ON DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST...LOW LEVEL JET AND SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE
PANHANDLES STRENGTHEN. PWAT VALUES ARE NOT AS HIGH AS PREVIOUS
DAYS...BUT ARE STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 1.50 INCHES OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES. SLOW STORM MOTION...COMBINED WITH
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING STORMS WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING AS THE PRIMARY
CONCERN. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE A HAZARD FROM THE STRONGER
STORMS THAT FORM. MONDAY LOOKS FAIRLY SIMILAR...PERHAPS WITH GREATER
COVERAGE OF STORMS AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ARRIVES DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE FLOW TO
ALSO ASSIST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

MODELS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN MOVING THE RIDGE AXIS EAST...BUT ARE
SLOWLY MOVING IT FURTHER INTO THE WORKWEEK. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ON TUESDAY FOR THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...THEN DRY THINGS OUT
MIDWEEK...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT SUPER HIGH THAT THIS SCENARIO WILL
PLAY OUT. MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN BY THE
WEEKEND AND ENDING THE POTENTIAL REPRIEVE OF EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/18







000
FXUS64 KAMA 020934
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
434 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER MORNING OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THIS TIME A
BIT FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SEEMS TO
HAVE FINALLY AMPLIFIED ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO SETUP A MORE WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY STORM MOTION. STORMS COULD REMAIN TOGETHER UNTIL NEAR
DAYBREAK...ALLOWING PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PANHANDLES TO
PICK UP ANOTHER WIDESPREAD 0.5 TO 1 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH TOTALS
CLOSER TO 2 AND POSSIBLY 3 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN TAXES COUNTY AND
MOST OF HANSFORD COUNTY. ANOTHER LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...THOUGH LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
WILL LIKELY ALLOW AT LEAST ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. GREATER COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE LATER ON DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST...LOW LEVEL JET AND SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE
PANHANDLES STRENGTHEN. PWAT VALUES ARE NOT AS HIGH AS PREVIOUS
DAYS...BUT ARE STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 1.50 INCHES OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES. SLOW STORM MOTION...COMBINED WITH
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING STORMS WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING AS THE PRIMARY
CONCERN. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE A HAZARD FROM THE STRONGER
STORMS THAT FORM. MONDAY LOOKS FAIRLY SIMILAR...PERHAPS WITH GREATER
COVERAGE OF STORMS AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ARRIVES DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE FLOW TO
ALSO ASSIST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

MODELS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN MOVING THE RIDGE AXIS EAST...BUT ARE
SLOWLY MOVING IT FURTHER INTO THE WORKWEEK. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ON TUESDAY FOR THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...THEN DRY THINGS OUT
MIDWEEK...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT SUPER HIGH THAT THIS SCENARIO WILL
PLAY OUT. MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN BY THE
WEEKEND AND ENDING THE POTENTIAL REPRIEVE OF EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                88  66  88  67  93 /  20  30  30  30  10
BEAVER OK                  92  70  93  68  92 /  20  20  30  50  20
BOISE CITY OK              89  66  89  63  92 /  20  30  50  40  10
BORGER TX                  91  69  91  69  95 /  20  40  30  40  10
BOYS RANCH TX              92  68  92  67  95 /  20  30  30  30  10
CANYON TX                  89  66  90  66  95 /  20  40  30  30  10
CLARENDON TX               89  68  90  69  95 /  20  40  30  30  10
DALHART TX                 90  66  89  64  94 /  20  30  40  40  10
GUYMON OK                  92  69  89  66  93 /  20  40  40  50  10
HEREFORD TX                90  66  89  67  95 /  20  30  30  30  10
LIPSCOMB TX                91  70  92  69  93 /  20  30  30  50  20
PAMPA TX                   88  67  88  67  93 /  20  40  30  40  20
SHAMROCK TX                90  69  90  69  95 /  20  40  30  40  20
WELLINGTON TX              92  70  92  71  98 /  20  40  30  30  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/18






000
FXUS64 KAMA 020934
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
434 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER MORNING OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THIS TIME A
BIT FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SEEMS TO
HAVE FINALLY AMPLIFIED ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO SETUP A MORE WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY STORM MOTION. STORMS COULD REMAIN TOGETHER UNTIL NEAR
DAYBREAK...ALLOWING PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PANHANDLES TO
PICK UP ANOTHER WIDESPREAD 0.5 TO 1 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH TOTALS
CLOSER TO 2 AND POSSIBLY 3 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN TAXES COUNTY AND
MOST OF HANSFORD COUNTY. ANOTHER LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...THOUGH LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
WILL LIKELY ALLOW AT LEAST ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. GREATER COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE LATER ON DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST...LOW LEVEL JET AND SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE
PANHANDLES STRENGTHEN. PWAT VALUES ARE NOT AS HIGH AS PREVIOUS
DAYS...BUT ARE STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 1.50 INCHES OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES. SLOW STORM MOTION...COMBINED WITH
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING STORMS WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING AS THE PRIMARY
CONCERN. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE A HAZARD FROM THE STRONGER
STORMS THAT FORM. MONDAY LOOKS FAIRLY SIMILAR...PERHAPS WITH GREATER
COVERAGE OF STORMS AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ARRIVES DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE FLOW TO
ALSO ASSIST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

MODELS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN MOVING THE RIDGE AXIS EAST...BUT ARE
SLOWLY MOVING IT FURTHER INTO THE WORKWEEK. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ON TUESDAY FOR THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...THEN DRY THINGS OUT
MIDWEEK...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT SUPER HIGH THAT THIS SCENARIO WILL
PLAY OUT. MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN BY THE
WEEKEND AND ENDING THE POTENTIAL REPRIEVE OF EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                88  66  88  67  93 /  20  30  30  30  10
BEAVER OK                  92  70  93  68  92 /  20  20  30  50  20
BOISE CITY OK              89  66  89  63  92 /  20  30  50  40  10
BORGER TX                  91  69  91  69  95 /  20  40  30  40  10
BOYS RANCH TX              92  68  92  67  95 /  20  30  30  30  10
CANYON TX                  89  66  90  66  95 /  20  40  30  30  10
CLARENDON TX               89  68  90  69  95 /  20  40  30  30  10
DALHART TX                 90  66  89  64  94 /  20  30  40  40  10
GUYMON OK                  92  69  89  66  93 /  20  40  40  50  10
HEREFORD TX                90  66  89  67  95 /  20  30  30  30  10
LIPSCOMB TX                91  70  92  69  93 /  20  30  30  50  20
PAMPA TX                   88  67  88  67  93 /  20  40  30  40  20
SHAMROCK TX                90  69  90  69  95 /  20  40  30  40  20
WELLINGTON TX              92  70  92  71  98 /  20  40  30  30  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/18







000
FXUS64 KAMA 020356 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1056 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS AVIATION AFD. THE
CLUSTER OF TSTMS S AND W OF KAMA AS OF THIS WRITING WILL LIKELY
REMAIN S OF THE TERMINAL SITE AND DID NOT INCLUDE IN THIS FCST.
ANOTHER CROP OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS PSBL LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. HOWEVER...HAVE REFRAINED FROM INCLUDING IN THE TAF FCST AT
THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHICH TAF SITE...IF ANY...MAY BE
IMPACTED.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE
MUCH LESS THAN OBSERVED RECENTLY IF STORMS DEVELOP. FOR THIS REASON
PLUS LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHICH TAF SITE...IF ANY...WILL BE IMPACTED...
HAVE OMITTED THIS WEATHER ELEMENT FROM THIS TAF CYCLE. ANOTHER CROP
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS PSBL LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE REFRAINED
FROM INCLUDING IN THE FCST AT THIS TIME SINCE IT IS NEAR THE END OF
THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY QUIET THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING MCV.  WE HAVE CANCELLED THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WHICH WAS SET TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM TODAY...SINCE THE THREAT
FOR FLOODING ISSUES IN THE NEAR TERM HAS DIMINISHED.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING AT THIS TIME OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NEW
MEXICO...WITH MOVEMENT INTO OUR WESTERN SECTIONS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING.  LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE VEERED THAN THAT OF LAST
NIGHT...RESULTING IN LESS OVERALL SHEAR AND LESS ORGANIZATION TO
CONVECTION.  STILL...POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
PAST MIDNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN EASTERN SECTIONS...WITH POPS ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.

SUNDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO OCCUR.

ALL SHORT- AND MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING DEVELOPMENT OF A
SHORTWAVE TROF AT 700 MB DURING THE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME.  HAVE INCREASED POPS MOST SECTIONS DURING THESE PERIODS AS
CURVATURE IN FLOW AND FRONTOGENESIS WOULD ADD SUPPORT FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  SHOULD THIS INDEED OCCUR...MORE FLOODING
ISSUES WILL LIKELY ARISE.

LOW POPS RETAINED IN EAST ON TUESDAY...WITH DRY FORECAST THEREAFTER.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 020356 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1056 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS AVIATION AFD. THE
CLUSTER OF TSTMS S AND W OF KAMA AS OF THIS WRITING WILL LIKELY
REMAIN S OF THE TERMINAL SITE AND DID NOT INCLUDE IN THIS FCST.
ANOTHER CROP OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS PSBL LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. HOWEVER...HAVE REFRAINED FROM INCLUDING IN THE TAF FCST AT
THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHICH TAF SITE...IF ANY...MAY BE
IMPACTED.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE
MUCH LESS THAN OBSERVED RECENTLY IF STORMS DEVELOP. FOR THIS REASON
PLUS LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHICH TAF SITE...IF ANY...WILL BE IMPACTED...
HAVE OMITTED THIS WEATHER ELEMENT FROM THIS TAF CYCLE. ANOTHER CROP
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS PSBL LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE REFRAINED
FROM INCLUDING IN THE FCST AT THIS TIME SINCE IT IS NEAR THE END OF
THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY QUIET THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING MCV.  WE HAVE CANCELLED THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WHICH WAS SET TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM TODAY...SINCE THE THREAT
FOR FLOODING ISSUES IN THE NEAR TERM HAS DIMINISHED.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING AT THIS TIME OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NEW
MEXICO...WITH MOVEMENT INTO OUR WESTERN SECTIONS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING.  LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE VEERED THAN THAT OF LAST
NIGHT...RESULTING IN LESS OVERALL SHEAR AND LESS ORGANIZATION TO
CONVECTION.  STILL...POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
PAST MIDNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN EASTERN SECTIONS...WITH POPS ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.

SUNDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO OCCUR.

ALL SHORT- AND MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING DEVELOPMENT OF A
SHORTWAVE TROF AT 700 MB DURING THE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME.  HAVE INCREASED POPS MOST SECTIONS DURING THESE PERIODS AS
CURVATURE IN FLOW AND FRONTOGENESIS WOULD ADD SUPPORT FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  SHOULD THIS INDEED OCCUR...MORE FLOODING
ISSUES WILL LIKELY ARISE.

LOW POPS RETAINED IN EAST ON TUESDAY...WITH DRY FORECAST THEREAFTER.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 012337 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
637 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE
MUCH LESS THAN OBSERVED RECENTLY IF STORMS DEVELOP. FOR THIS REASON
PLUS LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHICH TAF SITE...IF ANY...WILL BE IMPACTED...
HAVE OMITTED THIS WEATHER ELEMENT FROM THIS TAF CYCLE. ANOTHER CROP
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS PSBL LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE REFRAINED
FROM INCLUDING IN THE FCST AT THIS TIME SINCE IT IS NEAR THE END OF
THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY QUIET THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING MCV.  WE HAVE CANCELLED THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WHICH WAS SET TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM TODAY...SINCE THE THREAT
FOR FLOODING ISSUES IN THE NEAR TERM HAS DIMINISHED.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING AT THIS TIME OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NEW
MEXICO...WITH MOVEMENT INTO OUR WESTERN SECTIONS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING.  LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE VEERED THAN THAT OF LAST
NIGHT...RESULTING IN LESS OVERALL SHEAR AND LESS ORGANIZATION TO
CONVECTION.  STILL...POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
PAST MIDNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN EASTERN SECTIONS...WITH POPS ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.

SUNDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO OCCUR.

ALL SHORT- AND MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING DEVELOPMENT OF A
SHORTWAVE TROF AT 700 MB DURING THE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME.  HAVE INCREASED POPS MOST SECTIONS DURING THESE PERIODS AS
CURVATURE IN FLOW AND FRONTOGENESIS WOULD ADD SUPPORT FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  SHOULD THIS INDEED OCCUR...MORE FLOODING
ISSUES WILL LIKELY ARISE.

LOW POPS RETAINED IN EAST ON TUESDAY...WITH DRY FORECAST THEREAFTER.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 012337 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
637 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE
MUCH LESS THAN OBSERVED RECENTLY IF STORMS DEVELOP. FOR THIS REASON
PLUS LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHICH TAF SITE...IF ANY...WILL BE IMPACTED...
HAVE OMITTED THIS WEATHER ELEMENT FROM THIS TAF CYCLE. ANOTHER CROP
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS PSBL LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE REFRAINED
FROM INCLUDING IN THE FCST AT THIS TIME SINCE IT IS NEAR THE END OF
THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY QUIET THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING MCV.  WE HAVE CANCELLED THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WHICH WAS SET TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM TODAY...SINCE THE THREAT
FOR FLOODING ISSUES IN THE NEAR TERM HAS DIMINISHED.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING AT THIS TIME OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NEW
MEXICO...WITH MOVEMENT INTO OUR WESTERN SECTIONS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING.  LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE VEERED THAN THAT OF LAST
NIGHT...RESULTING IN LESS OVERALL SHEAR AND LESS ORGANIZATION TO
CONVECTION.  STILL...POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
PAST MIDNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN EASTERN SECTIONS...WITH POPS ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.

SUNDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO OCCUR.

ALL SHORT- AND MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING DEVELOPMENT OF A
SHORTWAVE TROF AT 700 MB DURING THE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME.  HAVE INCREASED POPS MOST SECTIONS DURING THESE PERIODS AS
CURVATURE IN FLOW AND FRONTOGENESIS WOULD ADD SUPPORT FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  SHOULD THIS INDEED OCCUR...MORE FLOODING
ISSUES WILL LIKELY ARISE.

LOW POPS RETAINED IN EAST ON TUESDAY...WITH DRY FORECAST THEREAFTER.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 012337 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
637 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE
MUCH LESS THAN OBSERVED RECENTLY IF STORMS DEVELOP. FOR THIS REASON
PLUS LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHICH TAF SITE...IF ANY...WILL BE IMPACTED...
HAVE OMITTED THIS WEATHER ELEMENT FROM THIS TAF CYCLE. ANOTHER CROP
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS PSBL LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE REFRAINED
FROM INCLUDING IN THE FCST AT THIS TIME SINCE IT IS NEAR THE END OF
THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY QUIET THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING MCV.  WE HAVE CANCELLED THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WHICH WAS SET TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM TODAY...SINCE THE THREAT
FOR FLOODING ISSUES IN THE NEAR TERM HAS DIMINISHED.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING AT THIS TIME OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NEW
MEXICO...WITH MOVEMENT INTO OUR WESTERN SECTIONS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING.  LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE VEERED THAN THAT OF LAST
NIGHT...RESULTING IN LESS OVERALL SHEAR AND LESS ORGANIZATION TO
CONVECTION.  STILL...POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
PAST MIDNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN EASTERN SECTIONS...WITH POPS ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.

SUNDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO OCCUR.

ALL SHORT- AND MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING DEVELOPMENT OF A
SHORTWAVE TROF AT 700 MB DURING THE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME.  HAVE INCREASED POPS MOST SECTIONS DURING THESE PERIODS AS
CURVATURE IN FLOW AND FRONTOGENESIS WOULD ADD SUPPORT FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  SHOULD THIS INDEED OCCUR...MORE FLOODING
ISSUES WILL LIKELY ARISE.

LOW POPS RETAINED IN EAST ON TUESDAY...WITH DRY FORECAST THEREAFTER.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 012337 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
637 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE
MUCH LESS THAN OBSERVED RECENTLY IF STORMS DEVELOP. FOR THIS REASON
PLUS LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHICH TAF SITE...IF ANY...WILL BE IMPACTED...
HAVE OMITTED THIS WEATHER ELEMENT FROM THIS TAF CYCLE. ANOTHER CROP
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS PSBL LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE REFRAINED
FROM INCLUDING IN THE FCST AT THIS TIME SINCE IT IS NEAR THE END OF
THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY QUIET THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING MCV.  WE HAVE CANCELLED THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WHICH WAS SET TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM TODAY...SINCE THE THREAT
FOR FLOODING ISSUES IN THE NEAR TERM HAS DIMINISHED.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING AT THIS TIME OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NEW
MEXICO...WITH MOVEMENT INTO OUR WESTERN SECTIONS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING.  LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE VEERED THAN THAT OF LAST
NIGHT...RESULTING IN LESS OVERALL SHEAR AND LESS ORGANIZATION TO
CONVECTION.  STILL...POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
PAST MIDNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN EASTERN SECTIONS...WITH POPS ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.

SUNDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO OCCUR.

ALL SHORT- AND MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING DEVELOPMENT OF A
SHORTWAVE TROF AT 700 MB DURING THE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME.  HAVE INCREASED POPS MOST SECTIONS DURING THESE PERIODS AS
CURVATURE IN FLOW AND FRONTOGENESIS WOULD ADD SUPPORT FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  SHOULD THIS INDEED OCCUR...MORE FLOODING
ISSUES WILL LIKELY ARISE.

LOW POPS RETAINED IN EAST ON TUESDAY...WITH DRY FORECAST THEREAFTER.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 012042
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
340 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY QUIET THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING MCV.  WE HAVE CANCELLED THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WHICH WAS SET TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM TODAY...SINCE THE THREAT
FOR FLOODING ISSUES IN THE NEAR TERM HAS DIMINISHED.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING AT THIS TIME OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NEW
MEXICO...WITH MOVEMENT INTO OUR WESTERN SECTIONS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING.  LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE VEERED THAN THAT OF LAST
NIGHT...RESULTING IN LESS OVERALL SHEAR AND LESS ORGANIZATION TO
CONVECTION.  STILL...POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
PAST MIDNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN EASTERN SECTIONS...WITH POPS ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.

SUNDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO OCCUR.

ALL SHORT- AND MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING DEVELOPMENT OF A
SHORTWAVE TROF AT 700 MB DURING THE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME.  HAVE INCREASED POPS MOST SECTIONS DURING THESE PERIODS AS
CURVATURE IN FLOW AND FRONTOGENESIS WOULD ADD SUPPORT FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  SHOULD THIS INDEED OCCUR...MORE FLOODING
ISSUES WILL LIKELY ARISE.

LOW POPS RETAINED IN EAST ON TUESDAY...WITH DRY FORECAST THEREAFTER.

COCKRELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                67  90  67  88  68 /  40  20  40  30  20
BEAVER OK                  70  93  70  89  67 /  20  20  30  30  50
BOISE CITY OK              65  90  66  86  65 /  40  20  30  30  30
BORGER TX                  70  92  70  89  70 /  40  20  30  30  30
BOYS RANCH TX              68  93  69  90  68 /  40  20  40  30  20
CANYON TX                  67  91  68  89  68 /  40  20  40  30  20
CLARENDON TX               69  91  69  89  70 /  30  20  40  30  20
DALHART TX                 67  91  67  89  65 /  40  20  30  30  30
GUYMON OK                  68  93  68  89  67 /  20  20  30  30  40
HEREFORD TX                67  91  68  89  68 /  40  20  40  30  20
LIPSCOMB TX                70  92  70  90  70 /  30  20  30  30  40
PAMPA TX                   67  89  67  87  67 /  30  20  30  30  30
SHAMROCK TX                69  92  69  90  69 /  30  20  30  30  30
WELLINGTON TX              70  93  71  92  71 /  30  20  40  30  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

88/03





000
FXUS64 KAMA 011823 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
123 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.AVIATION...OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION HAS MOVED EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA LEAVING GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE. POTENTIAL FOR
AFTN STORMS IS THERE...BUT ON LOW SIDE AND NOT EVEN ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO INCLUDE VCSH AT THIS POINT. BEST CHC WOULD LIKELY BE AFTER 00Z AND
INTO OVERNIGHT PERIOD IF AT ALL. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS WITH NAM INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR AND IFR
CIGS MAINLY IN DHT IN 4 TO 5 HOUR TIME FRAME AROUND SUNRISE. GIVEN
ANTICIPATED HIGH CLOUDS WHICH MAY IMPEDE LOW CLOUDS AND
UNCERTAINTY / LOW PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT...HAVE NOT INCLUDED THIS IN
TAFS ATTM.

MJG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

AVIATION...
SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS SLOWLY BEEN INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND SHOULD AFFECT EACH TERMINAL TO START OFF
THE 12Z CYCLE. HAVE CARRIED TEMPO GROUPS FOR BOTH KGUY AND KDHT WHILE
KEEPING SHRA PREVAILING FOR KAMA. THIS MORNING CONVECTION SHOULD
PERSIST ROUGHLY THROUGH 14Z BEFORE DIMINISHING. THERE SHOULD BE A
LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY BEFORE THE
NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE CARRIED
PROB30 GROUPS FOR EACH TERMINAL DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING GIVEN
THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CONTINUALLY RENEWED
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINED
MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...THOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS APPEAR TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
STARTING TO AMPLIFY OVER ARIZONA. AS THIS OCCURS...UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY. AFTER THIS MORNING`S CONVECTION SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND TAPERS OFF...THE PANHANDLES SHOULD SEE A REPRIEVE BEFORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATER TODAY. SURFACE FLOW WILL
REMAIN SOUTHERLY ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA...KEEPING AMPLE
SURFACE MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PWAT VALUES STILL ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN QUITE HIGH...1.5 TO POSSIBLY 2 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES. A POSSIBLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY WILL BE REMNANT CLOUD COVER
FROM MORNING ACTIVITY AND LACK OF LOW CLOUDS...POSSIBLY ALLOWING SOME
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO BE REALIZED. BETWEEN CONVECTION ARRIVING
VIA NORTHWEST FLOW AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON CONVECTION...HAVE LEFT ALL
COUNTIES IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. ALL STORMS WILL BE SLOW
MOVING WITH HEAVY RAIN LIKELY...RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR
FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD ON SUNDAY...AND
SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES AND SHOULD REDUCE SURFACE
MOISTURE. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS STILL PLAUSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS AND WIDESPREAD AREAS OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL NOT BE AS LIKELY. AS THE WORKWEEK PROGRESSES...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND CENTERS ITSELF
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...POSSIBLY FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. AS A RESULT...FORECAST TRENDS DRIER AFTER TUESDAY AND
TEMPERATURES WARM UP AGAIN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. EXACT TIMING OF
HOW QUICKLY THIS HAPPENS WILL RESULT IN SUBTLE CHANGES IN HOW LONG
APPRECIABLE POPS ARE KEPT OVER THE AREA.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF
     SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

88/03







000
FXUS64 KAMA 011823 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
123 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.AVIATION...OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION HAS MOVED EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA LEAVING GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE. POTENTIAL FOR
AFTN STORMS IS THERE...BUT ON LOW SIDE AND NOT EVEN ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO INCLUDE VCSH AT THIS POINT. BEST CHC WOULD LIKELY BE AFTER 00Z AND
INTO OVERNIGHT PERIOD IF AT ALL. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS WITH NAM INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR AND IFR
CIGS MAINLY IN DHT IN 4 TO 5 HOUR TIME FRAME AROUND SUNRISE. GIVEN
ANTICIPATED HIGH CLOUDS WHICH MAY IMPEDE LOW CLOUDS AND
UNCERTAINTY / LOW PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT...HAVE NOT INCLUDED THIS IN
TAFS ATTM.

MJG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

AVIATION...
SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS SLOWLY BEEN INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND SHOULD AFFECT EACH TERMINAL TO START OFF
THE 12Z CYCLE. HAVE CARRIED TEMPO GROUPS FOR BOTH KGUY AND KDHT WHILE
KEEPING SHRA PREVAILING FOR KAMA. THIS MORNING CONVECTION SHOULD
PERSIST ROUGHLY THROUGH 14Z BEFORE DIMINISHING. THERE SHOULD BE A
LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY BEFORE THE
NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE CARRIED
PROB30 GROUPS FOR EACH TERMINAL DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING GIVEN
THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CONTINUALLY RENEWED
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINED
MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...THOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS APPEAR TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
STARTING TO AMPLIFY OVER ARIZONA. AS THIS OCCURS...UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY. AFTER THIS MORNING`S CONVECTION SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND TAPERS OFF...THE PANHANDLES SHOULD SEE A REPRIEVE BEFORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATER TODAY. SURFACE FLOW WILL
REMAIN SOUTHERLY ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA...KEEPING AMPLE
SURFACE MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PWAT VALUES STILL ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN QUITE HIGH...1.5 TO POSSIBLY 2 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES. A POSSIBLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY WILL BE REMNANT CLOUD COVER
FROM MORNING ACTIVITY AND LACK OF LOW CLOUDS...POSSIBLY ALLOWING SOME
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO BE REALIZED. BETWEEN CONVECTION ARRIVING
VIA NORTHWEST FLOW AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON CONVECTION...HAVE LEFT ALL
COUNTIES IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. ALL STORMS WILL BE SLOW
MOVING WITH HEAVY RAIN LIKELY...RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR
FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD ON SUNDAY...AND
SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES AND SHOULD REDUCE SURFACE
MOISTURE. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS STILL PLAUSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS AND WIDESPREAD AREAS OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL NOT BE AS LIKELY. AS THE WORKWEEK PROGRESSES...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND CENTERS ITSELF
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...POSSIBLY FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. AS A RESULT...FORECAST TRENDS DRIER AFTER TUESDAY AND
TEMPERATURES WARM UP AGAIN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. EXACT TIMING OF
HOW QUICKLY THIS HAPPENS WILL RESULT IN SUBTLE CHANGES IN HOW LONG
APPRECIABLE POPS ARE KEPT OVER THE AREA.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF
     SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

88/03






000
FXUS64 KAMA 011136
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
636 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS SLOWLY BEEN INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND SHOULD AFFECT EACH TERMINAL TO START OFF
THE 12Z CYCLE. HAVE CARRIED TEMPO GROUPS FOR BOTH KGUY AND KDHT WHILE
KEEPING SHRA PREVAILING FOR KAMA. THIS MORNING CONVECTION SHOULD
PERSIST ROUGHLY THROUGH 14Z BEFORE DIMINISHING. THERE SHOULD BE A
LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY BEFORE THE
NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE CARRIED
PROB30 GROUPS FOR EACH TERMINAL DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING GIVEN
THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CONTINUALLY RENEWED
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINED
MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...THOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS APPEAR TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
STARTING TO AMPLIFY OVER ARIZONA. AS THIS OCCURS...UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY. AFTER THIS MORNING`S CONVECTION SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND TAPERS OFF...THE PANHANDLES SHOULD SEE A REPRIEVE BEFORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATER TODAY. SURFACE FLOW WILL
REMAIN SOUTHERLY ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA...KEEPING AMPLE
SURFACE MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PWAT VALUES STILL ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN QUITE HIGH...1.5 TO POSSIBLY 2 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES. A POSSIBLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY WILL BE REMNANT CLOUD COVER
FROM MORNING ACTIVITY AND LACK OF LOW CLOUDS...POSSIBLY ALLOWING SOME
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO BE REALIZED. BETWEEN CONVECTION ARRIVING
VIA NORTHWEST FLOW AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON CONVECTION...HAVE LEFT ALL
COUNTIES IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. ALL STORMS WILL BE SLOW
MOVING WITH HEAVY RAIN LIKELY...RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR
FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD ON SUNDAY...AND
SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES AND SHOULD REDUCE SURFACE
MOISTURE. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS STILL PLAUSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS AND WIDESPREAD AREAS OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL NOT BE AS LIKELY. AS THE WORKWEEK PROGRESSES...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND CENTERS ITSELF
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...POSSIBLY FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. AS A RESULT...FORECAST TRENDS DRIER AFTER TUESDAY AND
TEMPERATURES WARM UP AGAIN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. EXACT TIMING OF
HOW QUICKLY THIS HAPPENS WILL RESULT IN SUBTLE CHANGES IN HOW LONG
APPRECIABLE POPS ARE KEPT OVER THE AREA.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...
     DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

14/18






000
FXUS64 KAMA 011136
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
636 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS SLOWLY BEEN INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND SHOULD AFFECT EACH TERMINAL TO START OFF
THE 12Z CYCLE. HAVE CARRIED TEMPO GROUPS FOR BOTH KGUY AND KDHT WHILE
KEEPING SHRA PREVAILING FOR KAMA. THIS MORNING CONVECTION SHOULD
PERSIST ROUGHLY THROUGH 14Z BEFORE DIMINISHING. THERE SHOULD BE A
LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY BEFORE THE
NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE CARRIED
PROB30 GROUPS FOR EACH TERMINAL DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING GIVEN
THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CONTINUALLY RENEWED
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINED
MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...THOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS APPEAR TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
STARTING TO AMPLIFY OVER ARIZONA. AS THIS OCCURS...UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY. AFTER THIS MORNING`S CONVECTION SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND TAPERS OFF...THE PANHANDLES SHOULD SEE A REPRIEVE BEFORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATER TODAY. SURFACE FLOW WILL
REMAIN SOUTHERLY ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA...KEEPING AMPLE
SURFACE MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PWAT VALUES STILL ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN QUITE HIGH...1.5 TO POSSIBLY 2 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES. A POSSIBLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY WILL BE REMNANT CLOUD COVER
FROM MORNING ACTIVITY AND LACK OF LOW CLOUDS...POSSIBLY ALLOWING SOME
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO BE REALIZED. BETWEEN CONVECTION ARRIVING
VIA NORTHWEST FLOW AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON CONVECTION...HAVE LEFT ALL
COUNTIES IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. ALL STORMS WILL BE SLOW
MOVING WITH HEAVY RAIN LIKELY...RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR
FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD ON SUNDAY...AND
SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES AND SHOULD REDUCE SURFACE
MOISTURE. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS STILL PLAUSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS AND WIDESPREAD AREAS OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL NOT BE AS LIKELY. AS THE WORKWEEK PROGRESSES...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND CENTERS ITSELF
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...POSSIBLY FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. AS A RESULT...FORECAST TRENDS DRIER AFTER TUESDAY AND
TEMPERATURES WARM UP AGAIN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. EXACT TIMING OF
HOW QUICKLY THIS HAPPENS WILL RESULT IN SUBTLE CHANGES IN HOW LONG
APPRECIABLE POPS ARE KEPT OVER THE AREA.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...
     DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

14/18







000
FXUS64 KAMA 011136
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
636 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS SLOWLY BEEN INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND SHOULD AFFECT EACH TERMINAL TO START OFF
THE 12Z CYCLE. HAVE CARRIED TEMPO GROUPS FOR BOTH KGUY AND KDHT WHILE
KEEPING SHRA PREVAILING FOR KAMA. THIS MORNING CONVECTION SHOULD
PERSIST ROUGHLY THROUGH 14Z BEFORE DIMINISHING. THERE SHOULD BE A
LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY BEFORE THE
NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE CARRIED
PROB30 GROUPS FOR EACH TERMINAL DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING GIVEN
THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CONTINUALLY RENEWED
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINED
MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...THOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS APPEAR TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
STARTING TO AMPLIFY OVER ARIZONA. AS THIS OCCURS...UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY. AFTER THIS MORNING`S CONVECTION SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND TAPERS OFF...THE PANHANDLES SHOULD SEE A REPRIEVE BEFORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATER TODAY. SURFACE FLOW WILL
REMAIN SOUTHERLY ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA...KEEPING AMPLE
SURFACE MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PWAT VALUES STILL ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN QUITE HIGH...1.5 TO POSSIBLY 2 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES. A POSSIBLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY WILL BE REMNANT CLOUD COVER
FROM MORNING ACTIVITY AND LACK OF LOW CLOUDS...POSSIBLY ALLOWING SOME
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO BE REALIZED. BETWEEN CONVECTION ARRIVING
VIA NORTHWEST FLOW AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON CONVECTION...HAVE LEFT ALL
COUNTIES IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. ALL STORMS WILL BE SLOW
MOVING WITH HEAVY RAIN LIKELY...RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR
FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD ON SUNDAY...AND
SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES AND SHOULD REDUCE SURFACE
MOISTURE. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS STILL PLAUSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS AND WIDESPREAD AREAS OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL NOT BE AS LIKELY. AS THE WORKWEEK PROGRESSES...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND CENTERS ITSELF
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...POSSIBLY FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. AS A RESULT...FORECAST TRENDS DRIER AFTER TUESDAY AND
TEMPERATURES WARM UP AGAIN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. EXACT TIMING OF
HOW QUICKLY THIS HAPPENS WILL RESULT IN SUBTLE CHANGES IN HOW LONG
APPRECIABLE POPS ARE KEPT OVER THE AREA.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...
     DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

14/18







000
FXUS64 KAMA 011136
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
636 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS SLOWLY BEEN INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND SHOULD AFFECT EACH TERMINAL TO START OFF
THE 12Z CYCLE. HAVE CARRIED TEMPO GROUPS FOR BOTH KGUY AND KDHT WHILE
KEEPING SHRA PREVAILING FOR KAMA. THIS MORNING CONVECTION SHOULD
PERSIST ROUGHLY THROUGH 14Z BEFORE DIMINISHING. THERE SHOULD BE A
LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY BEFORE THE
NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE CARRIED
PROB30 GROUPS FOR EACH TERMINAL DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING GIVEN
THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CONTINUALLY RENEWED
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINED
MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...THOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS APPEAR TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
STARTING TO AMPLIFY OVER ARIZONA. AS THIS OCCURS...UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY. AFTER THIS MORNING`S CONVECTION SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND TAPERS OFF...THE PANHANDLES SHOULD SEE A REPRIEVE BEFORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATER TODAY. SURFACE FLOW WILL
REMAIN SOUTHERLY ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA...KEEPING AMPLE
SURFACE MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PWAT VALUES STILL ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN QUITE HIGH...1.5 TO POSSIBLY 2 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES. A POSSIBLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY WILL BE REMNANT CLOUD COVER
FROM MORNING ACTIVITY AND LACK OF LOW CLOUDS...POSSIBLY ALLOWING SOME
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO BE REALIZED. BETWEEN CONVECTION ARRIVING
VIA NORTHWEST FLOW AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON CONVECTION...HAVE LEFT ALL
COUNTIES IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. ALL STORMS WILL BE SLOW
MOVING WITH HEAVY RAIN LIKELY...RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR
FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD ON SUNDAY...AND
SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES AND SHOULD REDUCE SURFACE
MOISTURE. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS STILL PLAUSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS AND WIDESPREAD AREAS OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL NOT BE AS LIKELY. AS THE WORKWEEK PROGRESSES...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND CENTERS ITSELF
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...POSSIBLY FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. AS A RESULT...FORECAST TRENDS DRIER AFTER TUESDAY AND
TEMPERATURES WARM UP AGAIN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. EXACT TIMING OF
HOW QUICKLY THIS HAPPENS WILL RESULT IN SUBTLE CHANGES IN HOW LONG
APPRECIABLE POPS ARE KEPT OVER THE AREA.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...
     DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

14/18






000
FXUS64 KAMA 010934
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
434 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CONTINUALLY RENEWED
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINED
MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...THOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS APPEAR TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
STARTING TO AMPLIFY OVER ARIZONA. AS THIS OCCURS...UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY. AFTER THIS MORNING`S CONVECTION SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND TAPERS OFF...THE PANHANDLES SHOULD SEE A REPRIEVE BEFORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATER TODAY. SURFACE FLOW WILL
REMAIN SOUTHERLY ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA...KEEPING AMPLE
SURFACE MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PWAT VALUES STILL ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN QUITE HIGH...1.5 TO POSSIBLY 2 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES. A POSSIBLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY WILL BE REMNANT CLOUD COVER
FROM MORNING ACTIVITY AND LACK OF LOW CLOUDS...POSSIBLY ALLOWING SOME
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO BE REALIZED. BETWEEN CONVECTION ARRIVING
VIA NORTHWEST FLOW AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON CONVECTION...HAVE LEFT ALL
COUNTIES IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. ALL STORMS WILL BE SLOW
MOVING WITH HEAVY RAIN LIKELY...RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR
FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD ON SUNDAY...AND
SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES AND SHOULD REDUCE SURFACE
MOISTURE. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS STILL PLAUSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS AND WIDESPREAD AREAS OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL NOT BE AS LIKELY. AS THE WORKWEEK PROGRESSES...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND CENTERS ITSELF
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...POSSIBLY FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. AS A RESULT...FORECAST TRENDS DRIER AFTER TUESDAY AND
TEMPERATURES WARM UP AGAIN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. EXACT TIMING OF
HOW QUICKLY THIS HAPPENS WILL RESULT IN SUBTLE CHANGES IN HOW LONG
APPRECIABLE POPS ARE KEPT OVER THE AREA.

ELSENHEIMER


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                83  67  90  68  92 /  40  40  20  20  20
BEAVER OK                  85  69  93  70  92 /  40  20  10  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              86  65  90  65  89 /  30  20  10  20  20
BORGER TX                  86  69  93  70  92 /  50  40  20  20  20
BOYS RANCH TX              88  68  93  68  94 /  30  40  20  20  20
CANYON TX                  85  67  92  68  93 /  40  40  20  20  20
CLARENDON TX               83  68  92  69  93 /  60  40  20  20  20
DALHART TX                 89  67  92  67  91 /  30  40  20  20  20
GUYMON OK                  87  68  92  69  92 /  40  30  10  20  20
HEREFORD TX                88  67  92  68  93 /  40  40  20  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                84  69  93  71  92 /  50  40  20  20  20
PAMPA TX                   82  67  90  68  91 /  50  40  20  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                82  69  92  69  93 /  60  40  20  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              85  70  94  71  95 /  60  40  20  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...
     DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

14/18






000
FXUS64 KAMA 010934
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
434 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CONTINUALLY RENEWED
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINED
MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...THOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS APPEAR TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
STARTING TO AMPLIFY OVER ARIZONA. AS THIS OCCURS...UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY. AFTER THIS MORNING`S CONVECTION SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND TAPERS OFF...THE PANHANDLES SHOULD SEE A REPRIEVE BEFORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATER TODAY. SURFACE FLOW WILL
REMAIN SOUTHERLY ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA...KEEPING AMPLE
SURFACE MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PWAT VALUES STILL ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN QUITE HIGH...1.5 TO POSSIBLY 2 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES. A POSSIBLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY WILL BE REMNANT CLOUD COVER
FROM MORNING ACTIVITY AND LACK OF LOW CLOUDS...POSSIBLY ALLOWING SOME
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO BE REALIZED. BETWEEN CONVECTION ARRIVING
VIA NORTHWEST FLOW AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON CONVECTION...HAVE LEFT ALL
COUNTIES IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. ALL STORMS WILL BE SLOW
MOVING WITH HEAVY RAIN LIKELY...RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR
FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD ON SUNDAY...AND
SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES AND SHOULD REDUCE SURFACE
MOISTURE. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS STILL PLAUSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS AND WIDESPREAD AREAS OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL NOT BE AS LIKELY. AS THE WORKWEEK PROGRESSES...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND CENTERS ITSELF
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...POSSIBLY FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. AS A RESULT...FORECAST TRENDS DRIER AFTER TUESDAY AND
TEMPERATURES WARM UP AGAIN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. EXACT TIMING OF
HOW QUICKLY THIS HAPPENS WILL RESULT IN SUBTLE CHANGES IN HOW LONG
APPRECIABLE POPS ARE KEPT OVER THE AREA.

ELSENHEIMER


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                83  67  90  68  92 /  40  40  20  20  20
BEAVER OK                  85  69  93  70  92 /  40  20  10  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              86  65  90  65  89 /  30  20  10  20  20
BORGER TX                  86  69  93  70  92 /  50  40  20  20  20
BOYS RANCH TX              88  68  93  68  94 /  30  40  20  20  20
CANYON TX                  85  67  92  68  93 /  40  40  20  20  20
CLARENDON TX               83  68  92  69  93 /  60  40  20  20  20
DALHART TX                 89  67  92  67  91 /  30  40  20  20  20
GUYMON OK                  87  68  92  69  92 /  40  30  10  20  20
HEREFORD TX                88  67  92  68  93 /  40  40  20  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                84  69  93  71  92 /  50  40  20  20  20
PAMPA TX                   82  67  90  68  91 /  50  40  20  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                82  69  92  69  93 /  60  40  20  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              85  70  94  71  95 /  60  40  20  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...
     DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

14/18







000
FXUS64 KAMA 312332
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
632 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

UPPER HIGH BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
PANHANDLES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AT ALL THREE TAF SITES MOST LIKELY AFTER 04Z TO
06Z SATURDAY UNTIL BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
GIVE WAY TO MVFR CELINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN AND NEAR ANY CONVECTION
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT MAINLY NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS OR SO THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  PRIMARY CONCERN
REMAINS THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WITH POSSIBLE FLOODING ISSUES.  FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE EXPANDED IN AREA TO INCLUDE ALL OF TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...AND WILL BE EXTENDED IN TIME TO RUN THROUGH THE
DAY ON SATURDAY.

DEEP...RICH MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS FORECAST AREA.  STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
RETURN AND WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR SUSTAINED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

OTHERWISE...INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY MOST SECTIONS SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODEST UPPER SUPPORT TRAVERSES MOIST AND UNSTABLE
LOWER LEVELS.  LOW POPS RETAINED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  DRY
THEREAFTER.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF
     SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

11





000
FXUS64 KAMA 312332
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
632 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

UPPER HIGH BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
PANHANDLES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AT ALL THREE TAF SITES MOST LIKELY AFTER 04Z TO
06Z SATURDAY UNTIL BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
GIVE WAY TO MVFR CELINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN AND NEAR ANY CONVECTION
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT MAINLY NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS OR SO THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  PRIMARY CONCERN
REMAINS THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WITH POSSIBLE FLOODING ISSUES.  FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE EXPANDED IN AREA TO INCLUDE ALL OF TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...AND WILL BE EXTENDED IN TIME TO RUN THROUGH THE
DAY ON SATURDAY.

DEEP...RICH MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS FORECAST AREA.  STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
RETURN AND WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR SUSTAINED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

OTHERWISE...INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY MOST SECTIONS SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODEST UPPER SUPPORT TRAVERSES MOIST AND UNSTABLE
LOWER LEVELS.  LOW POPS RETAINED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  DRY
THEREAFTER.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF
     SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

11






000
FXUS64 KAMA 312332
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
632 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

UPPER HIGH BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
PANHANDLES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AT ALL THREE TAF SITES MOST LIKELY AFTER 04Z TO
06Z SATURDAY UNTIL BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
GIVE WAY TO MVFR CELINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN AND NEAR ANY CONVECTION
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT MAINLY NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS OR SO THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  PRIMARY CONCERN
REMAINS THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WITH POSSIBLE FLOODING ISSUES.  FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE EXPANDED IN AREA TO INCLUDE ALL OF TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...AND WILL BE EXTENDED IN TIME TO RUN THROUGH THE
DAY ON SATURDAY.

DEEP...RICH MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS FORECAST AREA.  STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
RETURN AND WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR SUSTAINED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

OTHERWISE...INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY MOST SECTIONS SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODEST UPPER SUPPORT TRAVERSES MOIST AND UNSTABLE
LOWER LEVELS.  LOW POPS RETAINED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  DRY
THEREAFTER.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF
     SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

11





000
FXUS64 KAMA 312332
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
632 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

UPPER HIGH BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
PANHANDLES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AT ALL THREE TAF SITES MOST LIKELY AFTER 04Z TO
06Z SATURDAY UNTIL BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
GIVE WAY TO MVFR CELINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN AND NEAR ANY CONVECTION
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT MAINLY NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS OR SO THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  PRIMARY CONCERN
REMAINS THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WITH POSSIBLE FLOODING ISSUES.  FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE EXPANDED IN AREA TO INCLUDE ALL OF TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...AND WILL BE EXTENDED IN TIME TO RUN THROUGH THE
DAY ON SATURDAY.

DEEP...RICH MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS FORECAST AREA.  STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
RETURN AND WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR SUSTAINED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

OTHERWISE...INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY MOST SECTIONS SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODEST UPPER SUPPORT TRAVERSES MOIST AND UNSTABLE
LOWER LEVELS.  LOW POPS RETAINED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  DRY
THEREAFTER.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF
     SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

11






000
FXUS64 KAMA 312027
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
327 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  PRIMARY CONCERN
REMAINS THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WITH POSSIBLE FLOODING ISSUES.  FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE EXPANDED IN AREA TO INCLUDE ALL OF TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...AND WILL BE EXTENDED IN TIME TO RUN THROUGH THE
DAY ON SATURDAY.

DEEP...RICH MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS FORECAST AREA.  STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
RETURN AND WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR SUSTAINED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

OTHERWISE...INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY MOST SECTIONS SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODEST UPPER SUPPORT TRAVERSES MOIST AND UNSTABLE
LOWER LEVELS.  LOW POPS RETAINED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  DRY
THEREAFTER.

COCKRELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                67  83  67  89  67 /  60  50  40  20  20
BEAVER OK                  69  86  68  92  69 /  40  40  30  10  20
BOISE CITY OK              64  85  64  90  65 /  60  40  20  10  20
BORGER TX                  69  85  69  92  70 /  60  50  40  20  20
BOYS RANCH TX              68  87  67  92  67 /  60  40  40  20  20
CANYON TX                  67  84  67  90  67 /  60  50  40  20  20
CLARENDON TX               69  83  68  91  69 /  60  50  40  20  20
DALHART TX                 66  87  66  91  66 /  60  40  30  20  20
GUYMON OK                  67  87  67  92  68 /  50  40  30  10  20
HEREFORD TX                67  86  66  91  67 /  60  50  40  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                69  85  69  92  70 /  50  40  30  20  20
PAMPA TX                   67  82  67  89  68 /  60  50  40  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                69  82  68  91  69 /  60  60  50  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              71  85  70  93  70 /  60  60  50  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF
     SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

98/03







000
FXUS64 KAMA 312027
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
327 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  PRIMARY CONCERN
REMAINS THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WITH POSSIBLE FLOODING ISSUES.  FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE EXPANDED IN AREA TO INCLUDE ALL OF TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...AND WILL BE EXTENDED IN TIME TO RUN THROUGH THE
DAY ON SATURDAY.

DEEP...RICH MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS FORECAST AREA.  STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
RETURN AND WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR SUSTAINED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

OTHERWISE...INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY MOST SECTIONS SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODEST UPPER SUPPORT TRAVERSES MOIST AND UNSTABLE
LOWER LEVELS.  LOW POPS RETAINED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  DRY
THEREAFTER.

COCKRELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                67  83  67  89  67 /  60  50  40  20  20
BEAVER OK                  69  86  68  92  69 /  40  40  30  10  20
BOISE CITY OK              64  85  64  90  65 /  60  40  20  10  20
BORGER TX                  69  85  69  92  70 /  60  50  40  20  20
BOYS RANCH TX              68  87  67  92  67 /  60  40  40  20  20
CANYON TX                  67  84  67  90  67 /  60  50  40  20  20
CLARENDON TX               69  83  68  91  69 /  60  50  40  20  20
DALHART TX                 66  87  66  91  66 /  60  40  30  20  20
GUYMON OK                  67  87  67  92  68 /  50  40  30  10  20
HEREFORD TX                67  86  66  91  67 /  60  50  40  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                69  85  69  92  70 /  50  40  30  20  20
PAMPA TX                   67  82  67  89  68 /  60  50  40  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                69  82  68  91  69 /  60  60  50  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              71  85  70  93  70 /  60  60  50  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF
     SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

98/03






000
FXUS64 KAMA 311719 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1218 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
IMMEDIATE THREAT FOR FLOODING RAINS HAS SHIFTED FROM AMARILLO
AREA...WITH NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PARTS OF FORECAST AREA NOW
BELOW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.  HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF PANHANDLES.  WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN LOWERED BY AROUND 10 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT...WITH SMALLER ADJUSTMENTS ELSEWHERE.  UPDATED TEXT
PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

COCKRELL

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...LINGERING CLOUDS AND CONVECTION FROM MORNING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE RAINFALL THRU
31/20Z.  HAVE OPTED TO KEEP VICINITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THRU
THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR REFORMING STORMS IN THE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH A SMALL WEATHER FEATURE IN EASTERN NEW
MEXICO.  WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AFT 31/21Z AND
MAINLY BE AOB 10 KTS.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY
NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL BE ADDRESSED WITH
AMENDMENTS AS NEEDED.

BIEDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

AVIATION...
THE COMBINATION OF CONVECTION AND PATCHY FOG WILL LEAD TO A LOW
CONFIDENCE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. A LINE OF CONVECTION WHICH IS CURRENTLY
AFFECTING THE KDHT TERMINAL SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESSION TO IMPACT KGUY AND POSSIBLY KAMA BEFORE 15Z. AS STRONGER
EMBEDDED STORMS MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL...WE COULD SEE PREVAILING
CONDITIONS BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR/LIFR. OUTSIDE OF THESE STRONGER STORMS
CONDITIONS HOVER RIGHT AROUND MVFR TO IFR DUE TO FLUCTUATING
VISIBILITIES. WHILE ON THE TOPIC OF VISIBILITIES...PATCHY FOG HAS
DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF THE WESTERN CLUSTER OF STORMS. THIS HAS
ALLOWED VISIBILITIES AT KAMA DROP TO A HALF MILE OVER THE PAST HOUR.
THIS WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF OCCURRENCE AS VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE
AS THE OUTFLOW FROM THE WESTERN CLUSTER MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINAL.

THE COMBINATION OF FOG AND CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AT THE
TERMINALS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY TO ALLOW CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
BACK TO VFR. THIS IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT. PREVAILING
CONDITIONS WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON THE LOCATION OF THE EMBEDDED STORMS
SO EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS BY LATER ISSUANCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLES THIS MORNING ARE SLOW MOVING...AND EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCERS. SETUP REMAINS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO LAST FEW DAYS IN THAT
SEVERAL INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LINE UP ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD THIS MORNING ACROSS NEW
MEXICO...THOUGH UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING TO BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY RESULTING IN A SETUP FOR CONVECTION TO DRIFT INTO THE
PANHANDLES FROM THE MOUNTAINS. AT THE SURFACE...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A FAIRLY DECENT MOISTURE SOURCE ACROSS ALL OF
THE PANHANDLES. PWAT VALUES RANGE FROM 1.5 TO NEAR 2 INCHES THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY AS SURFACE FLOW REMAINS SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY. OUTSIDE
OF CONVECTION ARRIVING VIA NORTHWEST FLOW...A FEW INGREDIENTS CAUSE
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LIFTING MECHANISM MAY BE LACKING ACROSS THE AREA AS A
WEAK...LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS DRIFTED FURTHER SOUTH. DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER FROM THIS MORNING`S CONVECTION MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. OVERALL EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS LOW...SO WHILE
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED A FEW COULD PRODUCE A WIND THREAT.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING IS THE
PRIMARY THREAT. EVEN THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS LOW IN WHERE EXACTLY
STORMS WILL DEVELOP...ANY THAT DO WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN AND WILL HAVE SLOW STORM MOTION. HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES.

OVERALL SETUP CHANGES LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH UPPER LEVEL
FLOW NORTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE. TIMING OF
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES DRIFTING INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH OROGRAPHICALLY
INDUCED CONVECTION WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN RISING ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY AND HAVE ADJUSTED BLEND POPS AFTER MONDAY TO CONCENTRATE ON
AREAS OF BEST CHANCES...THOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN EXTENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN
AND DRYING THE AREA OUT FOR A FEW DAYS MIDWEEK.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$

98/03









000
FXUS64 KAMA 311719 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1218 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
IMMEDIATE THREAT FOR FLOODING RAINS HAS SHIFTED FROM AMARILLO
AREA...WITH NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PARTS OF FORECAST AREA NOW
BELOW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.  HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF PANHANDLES.  WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN LOWERED BY AROUND 10 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT...WITH SMALLER ADJUSTMENTS ELSEWHERE.  UPDATED TEXT
PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

COCKRELL

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...LINGERING CLOUDS AND CONVECTION FROM MORNING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE RAINFALL THRU
31/20Z.  HAVE OPTED TO KEEP VICINITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THRU
THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR REFORMING STORMS IN THE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH A SMALL WEATHER FEATURE IN EASTERN NEW
MEXICO.  WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AFT 31/21Z AND
MAINLY BE AOB 10 KTS.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY
NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL BE ADDRESSED WITH
AMENDMENTS AS NEEDED.

BIEDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

AVIATION...
THE COMBINATION OF CONVECTION AND PATCHY FOG WILL LEAD TO A LOW
CONFIDENCE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. A LINE OF CONVECTION WHICH IS CURRENTLY
AFFECTING THE KDHT TERMINAL SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESSION TO IMPACT KGUY AND POSSIBLY KAMA BEFORE 15Z. AS STRONGER
EMBEDDED STORMS MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL...WE COULD SEE PREVAILING
CONDITIONS BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR/LIFR. OUTSIDE OF THESE STRONGER STORMS
CONDITIONS HOVER RIGHT AROUND MVFR TO IFR DUE TO FLUCTUATING
VISIBILITIES. WHILE ON THE TOPIC OF VISIBILITIES...PATCHY FOG HAS
DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF THE WESTERN CLUSTER OF STORMS. THIS HAS
ALLOWED VISIBILITIES AT KAMA DROP TO A HALF MILE OVER THE PAST HOUR.
THIS WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF OCCURRENCE AS VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE
AS THE OUTFLOW FROM THE WESTERN CLUSTER MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINAL.

THE COMBINATION OF FOG AND CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AT THE
TERMINALS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY TO ALLOW CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
BACK TO VFR. THIS IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT. PREVAILING
CONDITIONS WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON THE LOCATION OF THE EMBEDDED STORMS
SO EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS BY LATER ISSUANCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLES THIS MORNING ARE SLOW MOVING...AND EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCERS. SETUP REMAINS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO LAST FEW DAYS IN THAT
SEVERAL INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LINE UP ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD THIS MORNING ACROSS NEW
MEXICO...THOUGH UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING TO BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY RESULTING IN A SETUP FOR CONVECTION TO DRIFT INTO THE
PANHANDLES FROM THE MOUNTAINS. AT THE SURFACE...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A FAIRLY DECENT MOISTURE SOURCE ACROSS ALL OF
THE PANHANDLES. PWAT VALUES RANGE FROM 1.5 TO NEAR 2 INCHES THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY AS SURFACE FLOW REMAINS SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY. OUTSIDE
OF CONVECTION ARRIVING VIA NORTHWEST FLOW...A FEW INGREDIENTS CAUSE
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LIFTING MECHANISM MAY BE LACKING ACROSS THE AREA AS A
WEAK...LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS DRIFTED FURTHER SOUTH. DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER FROM THIS MORNING`S CONVECTION MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. OVERALL EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS LOW...SO WHILE
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED A FEW COULD PRODUCE A WIND THREAT.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING IS THE
PRIMARY THREAT. EVEN THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS LOW IN WHERE EXACTLY
STORMS WILL DEVELOP...ANY THAT DO WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN AND WILL HAVE SLOW STORM MOTION. HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES.

OVERALL SETUP CHANGES LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH UPPER LEVEL
FLOW NORTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE. TIMING OF
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES DRIFTING INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH OROGRAPHICALLY
INDUCED CONVECTION WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN RISING ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY AND HAVE ADJUSTED BLEND POPS AFTER MONDAY TO CONCENTRATE ON
AREAS OF BEST CHANCES...THOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN EXTENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN
AND DRYING THE AREA OUT FOR A FEW DAYS MIDWEEK.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$

98/03










000
FXUS64 KAMA 311719 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1218 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
IMMEDIATE THREAT FOR FLOODING RAINS HAS SHIFTED FROM AMARILLO
AREA...WITH NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PARTS OF FORECAST AREA NOW
BELOW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.  HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF PANHANDLES.  WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN LOWERED BY AROUND 10 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT...WITH SMALLER ADJUSTMENTS ELSEWHERE.  UPDATED TEXT
PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

COCKRELL

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...LINGERING CLOUDS AND CONVECTION FROM MORNING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE RAINFALL THRU
31/20Z.  HAVE OPTED TO KEEP VICINITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THRU
THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR REFORMING STORMS IN THE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH A SMALL WEATHER FEATURE IN EASTERN NEW
MEXICO.  WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AFT 31/21Z AND
MAINLY BE AOB 10 KTS.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY
NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL BE ADDRESSED WITH
AMENDMENTS AS NEEDED.

BIEDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

AVIATION...
THE COMBINATION OF CONVECTION AND PATCHY FOG WILL LEAD TO A LOW
CONFIDENCE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. A LINE OF CONVECTION WHICH IS CURRENTLY
AFFECTING THE KDHT TERMINAL SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESSION TO IMPACT KGUY AND POSSIBLY KAMA BEFORE 15Z. AS STRONGER
EMBEDDED STORMS MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL...WE COULD SEE PREVAILING
CONDITIONS BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR/LIFR. OUTSIDE OF THESE STRONGER STORMS
CONDITIONS HOVER RIGHT AROUND MVFR TO IFR DUE TO FLUCTUATING
VISIBILITIES. WHILE ON THE TOPIC OF VISIBILITIES...PATCHY FOG HAS
DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF THE WESTERN CLUSTER OF STORMS. THIS HAS
ALLOWED VISIBILITIES AT KAMA DROP TO A HALF MILE OVER THE PAST HOUR.
THIS WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF OCCURRENCE AS VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE
AS THE OUTFLOW FROM THE WESTERN CLUSTER MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINAL.

THE COMBINATION OF FOG AND CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AT THE
TERMINALS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY TO ALLOW CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
BACK TO VFR. THIS IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT. PREVAILING
CONDITIONS WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON THE LOCATION OF THE EMBEDDED STORMS
SO EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS BY LATER ISSUANCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLES THIS MORNING ARE SLOW MOVING...AND EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCERS. SETUP REMAINS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO LAST FEW DAYS IN THAT
SEVERAL INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LINE UP ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD THIS MORNING ACROSS NEW
MEXICO...THOUGH UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING TO BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY RESULTING IN A SETUP FOR CONVECTION TO DRIFT INTO THE
PANHANDLES FROM THE MOUNTAINS. AT THE SURFACE...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A FAIRLY DECENT MOISTURE SOURCE ACROSS ALL OF
THE PANHANDLES. PWAT VALUES RANGE FROM 1.5 TO NEAR 2 INCHES THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY AS SURFACE FLOW REMAINS SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY. OUTSIDE
OF CONVECTION ARRIVING VIA NORTHWEST FLOW...A FEW INGREDIENTS CAUSE
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LIFTING MECHANISM MAY BE LACKING ACROSS THE AREA AS A
WEAK...LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS DRIFTED FURTHER SOUTH. DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER FROM THIS MORNING`S CONVECTION MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. OVERALL EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS LOW...SO WHILE
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED A FEW COULD PRODUCE A WIND THREAT.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING IS THE
PRIMARY THREAT. EVEN THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS LOW IN WHERE EXACTLY
STORMS WILL DEVELOP...ANY THAT DO WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN AND WILL HAVE SLOW STORM MOTION. HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES.

OVERALL SETUP CHANGES LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH UPPER LEVEL
FLOW NORTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE. TIMING OF
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES DRIFTING INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH OROGRAPHICALLY
INDUCED CONVECTION WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN RISING ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY AND HAVE ADJUSTED BLEND POPS AFTER MONDAY TO CONCENTRATE ON
AREAS OF BEST CHANCES...THOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN EXTENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN
AND DRYING THE AREA OUT FOR A FEW DAYS MIDWEEK.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$

98/03









000
FXUS64 KAMA 311643 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1143 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
IMMEDIATE THREAT FOR FLOODING RAINS HAS SHIFTED FROM AMARILLO
AREA...WITH NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PARTS OF FORECAST AREA NOW
BELOW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.  HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF PANHANDLES.  WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN LOWERED BY AROUND 10 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT...WITH SMALLER ADJUSTMENTS ELSEWHERE.  UPDATED TEXT
PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

AVIATION...
THE COMBINATION OF CONVECTION AND PATCHY FOG WILL LEAD TO A LOW
CONFIDENCE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. A LINE OF CONVECTION WHICH IS CURRENTLY
AFFECTING THE KDHT TERMINAL SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESSION TO IMPACT KGUY AND POSSIBLY KAMA BEFORE 15Z. AS STRONGER
EMBEDDED STORMS MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL...WE COULD SEE PREVAILING
CONDITIONS BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR/LIFR. OUTSIDE OF THESE STRONGER STORMS
CONDITIONS HOVER RIGHT AROUND MVFR TO IFR DUE TO FLUCTUATING
VISIBILITIES. WHILE ON THE TOPIC OF VISIBILITIES...PATCHY FOG HAS
DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF THE WESTERN CLUSTER OF STORMS. THIS HAS
ALLOWED VISIBILITIES AT KAMA DROP TO A HALF MILE OVER THE PAST HOUR.
THIS WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF OCCURRENCE AS VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE
AS THE OUTFLOW FROM THE WESTERN CLUSTER MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINAL.

THE COMBINATION OF FOG AND CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AT THE
TERMINALS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY TO ALLOW CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
BACK TO VFR. THIS IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT. PREVAILING
CONDITIONS WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON THE LOCATION OF THE EMBEDDED STORMS
SO EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS BY LATER ISSUANCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLES THIS MORNING ARE SLOW MOVING...AND EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCERS. SETUP REMAINS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO LAST FEW DAYS IN THAT
SEVERAL INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LINE UP ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD THIS MORNING ACROSS NEW
MEXICO...THOUGH UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING TO BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY RESULTING IN A SETUP FOR CONVECTION TO DRIFT INTO THE
PANHANDLES FROM THE MOUNTAINS. AT THE SURFACE...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A FAIRLY DECENT MOISTURE SOURCE ACROSS ALL OF
THE PANHANDLES. PWAT VALUES RANGE FROM 1.5 TO NEAR 2 INCHES THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY AS SURFACE FLOW REMAINS SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY. OUTSIDE
OF CONVECTION ARRIVING VIA NORTHWEST FLOW...A FEW INGREDIENTS CAUSE
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LIFTING MECHANISM MAY BE LACKING ACROSS THE AREA AS A
WEAK...LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS DRIFTED FURTHER SOUTH. DEBRIS CLOUD
COVER FROM THIS MORNING`S CONVECTION MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY. OVERALL EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS LOW...SO WHILE SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED A FEW COULD PRODUCE A WIND THREAT. HEAVY RAINFALL
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING IS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
EVEN THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS LOW IN WHERE EXACTLY STORMS WILL
DEVELOP...ANY THAT DO WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND
WILL HAVE SLOW STORM MOTION. HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES.

OVERALL SETUP CHANGES LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH UPPER LEVEL
FLOW NORTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE. TIMING OF
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES DRIFTING INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH OROGRAPHICALLY
INDUCED CONVECTION WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN RISING ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY AND HAVE ADJUSTED BLEND POPS AFTER MONDAY TO CONCENTRATE ON
AREAS OF BEST CHANCES...THOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN EXTENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN
AND DRYING THE AREA OUT FOR A FEW DAYS MIDWEEK.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$

99/03






000
FXUS64 KAMA 311643 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1143 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
IMMEDIATE THREAT FOR FLOODING RAINS HAS SHIFTED FROM AMARILLO
AREA...WITH NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PARTS OF FORECAST AREA NOW
BELOW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.  HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF PANHANDLES.  WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN LOWERED BY AROUND 10 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT...WITH SMALLER ADJUSTMENTS ELSEWHERE.  UPDATED TEXT
PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

AVIATION...
THE COMBINATION OF CONVECTION AND PATCHY FOG WILL LEAD TO A LOW
CONFIDENCE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. A LINE OF CONVECTION WHICH IS CURRENTLY
AFFECTING THE KDHT TERMINAL SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESSION TO IMPACT KGUY AND POSSIBLY KAMA BEFORE 15Z. AS STRONGER
EMBEDDED STORMS MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL...WE COULD SEE PREVAILING
CONDITIONS BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR/LIFR. OUTSIDE OF THESE STRONGER STORMS
CONDITIONS HOVER RIGHT AROUND MVFR TO IFR DUE TO FLUCTUATING
VISIBILITIES. WHILE ON THE TOPIC OF VISIBILITIES...PATCHY FOG HAS
DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF THE WESTERN CLUSTER OF STORMS. THIS HAS
ALLOWED VISIBILITIES AT KAMA DROP TO A HALF MILE OVER THE PAST HOUR.
THIS WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF OCCURRENCE AS VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE
AS THE OUTFLOW FROM THE WESTERN CLUSTER MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINAL.

THE COMBINATION OF FOG AND CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AT THE
TERMINALS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY TO ALLOW CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
BACK TO VFR. THIS IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT. PREVAILING
CONDITIONS WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON THE LOCATION OF THE EMBEDDED STORMS
SO EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS BY LATER ISSUANCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLES THIS MORNING ARE SLOW MOVING...AND EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCERS. SETUP REMAINS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO LAST FEW DAYS IN THAT
SEVERAL INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LINE UP ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD THIS MORNING ACROSS NEW
MEXICO...THOUGH UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING TO BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY RESULTING IN A SETUP FOR CONVECTION TO DRIFT INTO THE
PANHANDLES FROM THE MOUNTAINS. AT THE SURFACE...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A FAIRLY DECENT MOISTURE SOURCE ACROSS ALL OF
THE PANHANDLES. PWAT VALUES RANGE FROM 1.5 TO NEAR 2 INCHES THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY AS SURFACE FLOW REMAINS SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY. OUTSIDE
OF CONVECTION ARRIVING VIA NORTHWEST FLOW...A FEW INGREDIENTS CAUSE
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LIFTING MECHANISM MAY BE LACKING ACROSS THE AREA AS A
WEAK...LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS DRIFTED FURTHER SOUTH. DEBRIS CLOUD
COVER FROM THIS MORNING`S CONVECTION MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY. OVERALL EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS LOW...SO WHILE SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED A FEW COULD PRODUCE A WIND THREAT. HEAVY RAINFALL
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING IS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
EVEN THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS LOW IN WHERE EXACTLY STORMS WILL
DEVELOP...ANY THAT DO WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND
WILL HAVE SLOW STORM MOTION. HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES.

OVERALL SETUP CHANGES LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH UPPER LEVEL
FLOW NORTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE. TIMING OF
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES DRIFTING INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH OROGRAPHICALLY
INDUCED CONVECTION WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN RISING ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY AND HAVE ADJUSTED BLEND POPS AFTER MONDAY TO CONCENTRATE ON
AREAS OF BEST CHANCES...THOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN EXTENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN
AND DRYING THE AREA OUT FOR A FEW DAYS MIDWEEK.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$

99/03







000
FXUS64 KAMA 311124
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
624 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.AVIATION...
THE COMBINATION OF CONVECTION AND PATCHY FOG WILL LEAD TO A LOW
CONFIDENCE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. A LINE OF CONVECTION WHICH IS CURRENTLY
AFFECTING THE KDHT TERMINAL SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESSION TO IMPACT KGUY AND POSSIBLY KAMA BEFORE 15Z. AS STRONGER
EMBEDDED STORMS MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL...WE COULD SEE PREVAILING
CONDITIONS BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR/LIFR. OUTSIDE OF THESE STRONGER STORMS
CONDITIONS HOVER RIGHT AROUND MVFR TO IFR DUE TO FLUCTUATING
VISIBILITIES. WHILE ON THE TOPIC OF VISIBILITIES...PATCHY FOG HAS
DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF THE WESTERN CLUSTER OF STORMS. THIS HAS
ALLOWED VISIBILITIES AT KAMA DROP TO A HALF MILE OVER THE PAST HOUR.
THIS WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF OCCURRENCE AS VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE
AS THE OUTFLOW FROM THE WESTERN CLUSTER MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINAL.

THE COMBINATION OF FOG AND CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AT THE
TERMINALS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY TO ALLOW CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
BACK TO VFR. THIS IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT. PREVAILING
CONDITIONS WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON THE LOCATION OF THE EMBEDDED STORMS
SO EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS BY LATER ISSUANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLES THIS MORNING ARE SLOW MOVING...AND EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCERS. SETUP REMAINS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO LAST FEW DAYS IN THAT
SEVERAL INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LINE UP ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD THIS MORNING ACROSS NEW
MEXICO...THOUGH UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING TO BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY RESULTING IN A SETUP FOR CONVECTION TO DRIFT INTO THE
PANHANDLES FROM THE MOUNTAINS. AT THE SURFACE...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A FAIRLY DECENT MOISTURE SOURCE ACROSS ALL OF
THE PANHANDLES. PWAT VALUES RANGE FROM 1.5 TO NEAR 2 INCHES THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY AS SURFACE FLOW REMAINS SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY. OUTSIDE
OF CONVECTION ARRIVING VIA NORTHWEST FLOW...A FEW INGREDIENTS CAUSE
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LIFTING MECHANISM MAY BE LACKING ACROSS THE AREA AS A
WEAK...LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS DRIFTED FURTHER SOUTH. DEBRIS CLOUD
COVER FROM THIS MORNING`S CONVECTION MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY. OVERALL EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS LOW...SO WHILE SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED A FEW COULD PRODUCE A WIND THREAT. HEAVY RAINFALL
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING IS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
EVEN THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS LOW IN WHERE EXACTLY STORMS WILL
DEVELOP...ANY THAT DO WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND
WILL HAVE SLOW STORM MOTION. HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES.

OVERALL SETUP CHANGES LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH UPPER LEVEL
FLOW NORTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE. TIMING OF
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES DRIFTING INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH OROGRAPHICALLY
INDUCED CONVECTION WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN RISING ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY AND HAVE ADJUSTED BLEND POPS AFTER MONDAY TO CONCENTRATE ON
AREAS OF BEST CHANCES...THOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN EXTENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN
AND DRYING THE AREA OUT FOR A FEW DAYS MIDWEEK.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$

14/18






000
FXUS64 KAMA 311124
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
624 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.AVIATION...
THE COMBINATION OF CONVECTION AND PATCHY FOG WILL LEAD TO A LOW
CONFIDENCE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. A LINE OF CONVECTION WHICH IS CURRENTLY
AFFECTING THE KDHT TERMINAL SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESSION TO IMPACT KGUY AND POSSIBLY KAMA BEFORE 15Z. AS STRONGER
EMBEDDED STORMS MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL...WE COULD SEE PREVAILING
CONDITIONS BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR/LIFR. OUTSIDE OF THESE STRONGER STORMS
CONDITIONS HOVER RIGHT AROUND MVFR TO IFR DUE TO FLUCTUATING
VISIBILITIES. WHILE ON THE TOPIC OF VISIBILITIES...PATCHY FOG HAS
DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF THE WESTERN CLUSTER OF STORMS. THIS HAS
ALLOWED VISIBILITIES AT KAMA DROP TO A HALF MILE OVER THE PAST HOUR.
THIS WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF OCCURRENCE AS VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE
AS THE OUTFLOW FROM THE WESTERN CLUSTER MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINAL.

THE COMBINATION OF FOG AND CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AT THE
TERMINALS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY TO ALLOW CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
BACK TO VFR. THIS IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT. PREVAILING
CONDITIONS WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON THE LOCATION OF THE EMBEDDED STORMS
SO EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS BY LATER ISSUANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLES THIS MORNING ARE SLOW MOVING...AND EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCERS. SETUP REMAINS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO LAST FEW DAYS IN THAT
SEVERAL INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LINE UP ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD THIS MORNING ACROSS NEW
MEXICO...THOUGH UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING TO BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY RESULTING IN A SETUP FOR CONVECTION TO DRIFT INTO THE
PANHANDLES FROM THE MOUNTAINS. AT THE SURFACE...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A FAIRLY DECENT MOISTURE SOURCE ACROSS ALL OF
THE PANHANDLES. PWAT VALUES RANGE FROM 1.5 TO NEAR 2 INCHES THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY AS SURFACE FLOW REMAINS SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY. OUTSIDE
OF CONVECTION ARRIVING VIA NORTHWEST FLOW...A FEW INGREDIENTS CAUSE
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LIFTING MECHANISM MAY BE LACKING ACROSS THE AREA AS A
WEAK...LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS DRIFTED FURTHER SOUTH. DEBRIS CLOUD
COVER FROM THIS MORNING`S CONVECTION MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY. OVERALL EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS LOW...SO WHILE SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED A FEW COULD PRODUCE A WIND THREAT. HEAVY RAINFALL
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING IS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
EVEN THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS LOW IN WHERE EXACTLY STORMS WILL
DEVELOP...ANY THAT DO WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND
WILL HAVE SLOW STORM MOTION. HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES.

OVERALL SETUP CHANGES LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH UPPER LEVEL
FLOW NORTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE. TIMING OF
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES DRIFTING INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH OROGRAPHICALLY
INDUCED CONVECTION WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN RISING ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY AND HAVE ADJUSTED BLEND POPS AFTER MONDAY TO CONCENTRATE ON
AREAS OF BEST CHANCES...THOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN EXTENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN
AND DRYING THE AREA OUT FOR A FEW DAYS MIDWEEK.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$

14/18







000
FXUS64 KAMA 311124
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
624 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.AVIATION...
THE COMBINATION OF CONVECTION AND PATCHY FOG WILL LEAD TO A LOW
CONFIDENCE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. A LINE OF CONVECTION WHICH IS CURRENTLY
AFFECTING THE KDHT TERMINAL SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESSION TO IMPACT KGUY AND POSSIBLY KAMA BEFORE 15Z. AS STRONGER
EMBEDDED STORMS MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL...WE COULD SEE PREVAILING
CONDITIONS BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR/LIFR. OUTSIDE OF THESE STRONGER STORMS
CONDITIONS HOVER RIGHT AROUND MVFR TO IFR DUE TO FLUCTUATING
VISIBILITIES. WHILE ON THE TOPIC OF VISIBILITIES...PATCHY FOG HAS
DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF THE WESTERN CLUSTER OF STORMS. THIS HAS
ALLOWED VISIBILITIES AT KAMA DROP TO A HALF MILE OVER THE PAST HOUR.
THIS WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF OCCURRENCE AS VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE
AS THE OUTFLOW FROM THE WESTERN CLUSTER MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINAL.

THE COMBINATION OF FOG AND CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AT THE
TERMINALS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY TO ALLOW CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
BACK TO VFR. THIS IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT. PREVAILING
CONDITIONS WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON THE LOCATION OF THE EMBEDDED STORMS
SO EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS BY LATER ISSUANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLES THIS MORNING ARE SLOW MOVING...AND EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCERS. SETUP REMAINS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO LAST FEW DAYS IN THAT
SEVERAL INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LINE UP ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD THIS MORNING ACROSS NEW
MEXICO...THOUGH UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING TO BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY RESULTING IN A SETUP FOR CONVECTION TO DRIFT INTO THE
PANHANDLES FROM THE MOUNTAINS. AT THE SURFACE...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A FAIRLY DECENT MOISTURE SOURCE ACROSS ALL OF
THE PANHANDLES. PWAT VALUES RANGE FROM 1.5 TO NEAR 2 INCHES THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY AS SURFACE FLOW REMAINS SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY. OUTSIDE
OF CONVECTION ARRIVING VIA NORTHWEST FLOW...A FEW INGREDIENTS CAUSE
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LIFTING MECHANISM MAY BE LACKING ACROSS THE AREA AS A
WEAK...LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS DRIFTED FURTHER SOUTH. DEBRIS CLOUD
COVER FROM THIS MORNING`S CONVECTION MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY. OVERALL EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS LOW...SO WHILE SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED A FEW COULD PRODUCE A WIND THREAT. HEAVY RAINFALL
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING IS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
EVEN THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS LOW IN WHERE EXACTLY STORMS WILL
DEVELOP...ANY THAT DO WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND
WILL HAVE SLOW STORM MOTION. HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES.

OVERALL SETUP CHANGES LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH UPPER LEVEL
FLOW NORTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE. TIMING OF
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES DRIFTING INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH OROGRAPHICALLY
INDUCED CONVECTION WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN RISING ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY AND HAVE ADJUSTED BLEND POPS AFTER MONDAY TO CONCENTRATE ON
AREAS OF BEST CHANCES...THOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN EXTENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN
AND DRYING THE AREA OUT FOR A FEW DAYS MIDWEEK.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$

14/18






000
FXUS64 KAMA 311124
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
624 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.AVIATION...
THE COMBINATION OF CONVECTION AND PATCHY FOG WILL LEAD TO A LOW
CONFIDENCE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. A LINE OF CONVECTION WHICH IS CURRENTLY
AFFECTING THE KDHT TERMINAL SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESSION TO IMPACT KGUY AND POSSIBLY KAMA BEFORE 15Z. AS STRONGER
EMBEDDED STORMS MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL...WE COULD SEE PREVAILING
CONDITIONS BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR/LIFR. OUTSIDE OF THESE STRONGER STORMS
CONDITIONS HOVER RIGHT AROUND MVFR TO IFR DUE TO FLUCTUATING
VISIBILITIES. WHILE ON THE TOPIC OF VISIBILITIES...PATCHY FOG HAS
DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF THE WESTERN CLUSTER OF STORMS. THIS HAS
ALLOWED VISIBILITIES AT KAMA DROP TO A HALF MILE OVER THE PAST HOUR.
THIS WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF OCCURRENCE AS VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE
AS THE OUTFLOW FROM THE WESTERN CLUSTER MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINAL.

THE COMBINATION OF FOG AND CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AT THE
TERMINALS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY TO ALLOW CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
BACK TO VFR. THIS IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT. PREVAILING
CONDITIONS WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON THE LOCATION OF THE EMBEDDED STORMS
SO EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS BY LATER ISSUANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLES THIS MORNING ARE SLOW MOVING...AND EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCERS. SETUP REMAINS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO LAST FEW DAYS IN THAT
SEVERAL INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LINE UP ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD THIS MORNING ACROSS NEW
MEXICO...THOUGH UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING TO BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY RESULTING IN A SETUP FOR CONVECTION TO DRIFT INTO THE
PANHANDLES FROM THE MOUNTAINS. AT THE SURFACE...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A FAIRLY DECENT MOISTURE SOURCE ACROSS ALL OF
THE PANHANDLES. PWAT VALUES RANGE FROM 1.5 TO NEAR 2 INCHES THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY AS SURFACE FLOW REMAINS SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY. OUTSIDE
OF CONVECTION ARRIVING VIA NORTHWEST FLOW...A FEW INGREDIENTS CAUSE
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LIFTING MECHANISM MAY BE LACKING ACROSS THE AREA AS A
WEAK...LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS DRIFTED FURTHER SOUTH. DEBRIS CLOUD
COVER FROM THIS MORNING`S CONVECTION MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY. OVERALL EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS LOW...SO WHILE SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED A FEW COULD PRODUCE A WIND THREAT. HEAVY RAINFALL
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING IS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
EVEN THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS LOW IN WHERE EXACTLY STORMS WILL
DEVELOP...ANY THAT DO WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND
WILL HAVE SLOW STORM MOTION. HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES.

OVERALL SETUP CHANGES LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH UPPER LEVEL
FLOW NORTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE. TIMING OF
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES DRIFTING INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH OROGRAPHICALLY
INDUCED CONVECTION WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN RISING ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY AND HAVE ADJUSTED BLEND POPS AFTER MONDAY TO CONCENTRATE ON
AREAS OF BEST CHANCES...THOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN EXTENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN
AND DRYING THE AREA OUT FOR A FEW DAYS MIDWEEK.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$

14/18







000
FXUS64 KAMA 310952
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
452 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLES THIS MORNING ARE SLOW MOVING...AND EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCERS. SETUP REMAINS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO LAST FEW DAYS IN THAT
SEVERAL INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LINE UP ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD THIS MORNING ACROSS NEW
MEXICO...THOUGH UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING TO BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY RESULTING IN A SETUP FOR CONVECTION TO DRIFT INTO THE
PANHANDLES FROM THE MOUNTAINS. AT THE SURFACE...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A FAIRLY DECENT MOISTURE SOURCE ACROSS ALL OF
THE PANHANDLES. PWAT VALUES RANGE FROM 1.5 TO NEAR 2 INCHES THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY AS SURFACE FLOW REMAINS SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY. OUTSIDE
OF CONVECTION ARRIVING VIA NORTHWEST FLOW...A FEW INGREDIENTS CAUSE
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LIFTING MECHANISM MAY BE LACKING ACROSS THE AREA AS A
WEAK...LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS DRIFTED FURTHER SOUTH. DEBRIS CLOUD
COVER FROM THIS MORNING`S CONVECTION MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY. OVERALL EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS LOW...SO WHILE SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED A FEW COULD PRODUCE A WIND THREAT. HEAVY RAINFALL
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING IS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
EVEN THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS LOW IN WHERE EXACTLY STORMS WILL
DEVELOP...ANY THAT DO WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND
WILL HAVE SLOW STORM MOTION. HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES.

OVERALL SETUP CHANGES LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH UPPER LEVEL
FLOW NORTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE. TIMING OF
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES DRIFTING INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH OROGRAPHICALLY
INDUCED CONVECTION WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN RISING ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY AND HAVE ADJUSTED BLEND POPS AFTER MONDAY TO CONCENTRATE ON
AREAS OF BEST CHANCES...THOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN EXTENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN
AND DRYING THE AREA OUT FOR A FEW DAYS MIDWEEK.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                83  67  83  66  89 /  50  60  40  40  20
BEAVER OK                  91  67  86  68  92 /  40  20  20  20  10
BOISE CITY OK              86  64  85  64  89 /  60  50  20  20   5
BORGER TX                  85  68  85  68  91 /  50  60  40  40  10
BOYS RANCH TX              85  67  87  67  92 /  60  60  30  40  20
CANYON TX                  85  66  84  66  91 /  50  60  40  40  20
CLARENDON TX               90  68  83  67  91 /  30  60  40  40  20
DALHART TX                 86  65  87  65  91 /  70  60  30  30  10
GUYMON OK                  90  67  87  66  91 /  50  40  20  20  10
HEREFORD TX                84  67  86  66  90 /  50  60  40  40  20
LIPSCOMB TX                90  68  85  68  91 /  50  40  30  30  10
PAMPA TX                   82  66  82  66  89 /  50  60  40  40  20
SHAMROCK TX                90  68  82  68  91 /  40  50  50  50  20
WELLINGTON TX              92  70  85  69  92 /  30  50  50  50  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$

14/18







000
FXUS64 KAMA 310952
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
452 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLES THIS MORNING ARE SLOW MOVING...AND EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCERS. SETUP REMAINS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO LAST FEW DAYS IN THAT
SEVERAL INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LINE UP ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD THIS MORNING ACROSS NEW
MEXICO...THOUGH UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING TO BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY RESULTING IN A SETUP FOR CONVECTION TO DRIFT INTO THE
PANHANDLES FROM THE MOUNTAINS. AT THE SURFACE...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A FAIRLY DECENT MOISTURE SOURCE ACROSS ALL OF
THE PANHANDLES. PWAT VALUES RANGE FROM 1.5 TO NEAR 2 INCHES THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY AS SURFACE FLOW REMAINS SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY. OUTSIDE
OF CONVECTION ARRIVING VIA NORTHWEST FLOW...A FEW INGREDIENTS CAUSE
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LIFTING MECHANISM MAY BE LACKING ACROSS THE AREA AS A
WEAK...LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS DRIFTED FURTHER SOUTH. DEBRIS CLOUD
COVER FROM THIS MORNING`S CONVECTION MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY. OVERALL EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS LOW...SO WHILE SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED A FEW COULD PRODUCE A WIND THREAT. HEAVY RAINFALL
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING IS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
EVEN THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS LOW IN WHERE EXACTLY STORMS WILL
DEVELOP...ANY THAT DO WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND
WILL HAVE SLOW STORM MOTION. HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES.

OVERALL SETUP CHANGES LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH UPPER LEVEL
FLOW NORTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE. TIMING OF
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES DRIFTING INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH OROGRAPHICALLY
INDUCED CONVECTION WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN RISING ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY AND HAVE ADJUSTED BLEND POPS AFTER MONDAY TO CONCENTRATE ON
AREAS OF BEST CHANCES...THOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN EXTENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN
AND DRYING THE AREA OUT FOR A FEW DAYS MIDWEEK.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                83  67  83  66  89 /  50  60  40  40  20
BEAVER OK                  91  67  86  68  92 /  40  20  20  20  10
BOISE CITY OK              86  64  85  64  89 /  60  50  20  20   5
BORGER TX                  85  68  85  68  91 /  50  60  40  40  10
BOYS RANCH TX              85  67  87  67  92 /  60  60  30  40  20
CANYON TX                  85  66  84  66  91 /  50  60  40  40  20
CLARENDON TX               90  68  83  67  91 /  30  60  40  40  20
DALHART TX                 86  65  87  65  91 /  70  60  30  30  10
GUYMON OK                  90  67  87  66  91 /  50  40  20  20  10
HEREFORD TX                84  67  86  66  90 /  50  60  40  40  20
LIPSCOMB TX                90  68  85  68  91 /  50  40  30  30  10
PAMPA TX                   82  66  82  66  89 /  50  60  40  40  20
SHAMROCK TX                90  68  82  68  91 /  40  50  50  50  20
WELLINGTON TX              92  70  85  69  92 /  30  50  50  50  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$

14/18






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