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000
FXUS64 KAMA 102108
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
308 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...
LATEST SURFACE OBS SHOW A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH
ORIENTED FROM JUST NORTH OF GUYMON TO JUST NORTH OF DALHART.
TEMPERATURE DISCONTINUITY ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY IS NEGLIGABLE.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS
AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON AND DEEP MIXING HAS CAUSED RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES TO FALL TO UNDER 20 PERCENT AT MOST LOCATIONS LEADING TO
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS BEEN MARGINAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH 6 PM.

THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC LATER
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR WILL FILTER IN. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A BLEND OF SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE WITH SLIGHT WEIGHT TOWARD THE PREVIOUS DAY LOW TEMPERATURE
GRID WAS USED FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

BRB

.LONG TERM...
THANKS TO LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL HELP TO KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TOMORROW. SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT BACK OUT OF THE SOUTH BY THURSDAY EVENING
AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT BACKDOORS INTO THE PANHANDLES LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SINCE THIS WILL BE A GLANCING
BLOW WITH MUCH COLDER AIR FURTHER EAST WE WILL ONLY SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES KNOCKED DOWN A HANDFUL OF DEGREES. SOME OF THIS COOLER
AIR FILTERS INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES ON SATURDAY TO KEEP HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 50S WHILE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST WINDS ALLOW THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES WARM INTO THE MID 60S. MODELS HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT
THESE CHANCES SEEM TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AS THEY WILL
LIKELY BE MOISTURE STARVED.

NEXT WEEK WILL START OUT MUCH THE SAME WITH WEAK COLD FRONTS MOVING
THROUGH BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE SETTLE ON A SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS ON THE RISE YET
AGAIN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONGOING ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS DECREASE AND HUMIDITIES
IMPROVE. A SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD WILL ALLOW A
SLIGHT NORTHWESTERLY SHIFT TO THE WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24-HOURS. SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TOMORROW BUT
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF LESS THAN 20 PERCENT WILL BE LIKELY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. HOWEVER...20-FT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH TO PROHIBIT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A
SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL HELP TO LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY FOR THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLES AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DIP CLOSE TO 20 PERCENT.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING NEAR 20 PERCENT AND
20-FT WINDS NEAR 15 MPH.

LOOKING JUST BEYOND THE 7 DAY FORECAST WE COULD BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER
ROUND OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AROUND THE THURSDAY
TIMEFRAME. MUCH CAN CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN BUT WE COULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN FIRE BEHAVIOR SHOULD FORECAST MODELS VERIFY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                34  66  33  66  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  30  62  29  61  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              32  66  31  60  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  36  66  36  64  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              31  66  30  68  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  32  67  32  68  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               36  65  33  67  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 30  67  30  64  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  32  66  31  62  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                31  67  31  69  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                32  61  32  62  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   34  61  34  62  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                35  63  32  65  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              36  63  33  67  31 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF SMITH...
     DONLEY...GRAY...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...WHEELER.

OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/14




000
FXUS64 KAMA 102108
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
308 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...
LATEST SURFACE OBS SHOW A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH
ORIENTED FROM JUST NORTH OF GUYMON TO JUST NORTH OF DALHART.
TEMPERATURE DISCONTINUITY ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY IS NEGLIGABLE.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS
AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON AND DEEP MIXING HAS CAUSED RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES TO FALL TO UNDER 20 PERCENT AT MOST LOCATIONS LEADING TO
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS BEEN MARGINAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH 6 PM.

THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC LATER
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR WILL FILTER IN. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A BLEND OF SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE WITH SLIGHT WEIGHT TOWARD THE PREVIOUS DAY LOW TEMPERATURE
GRID WAS USED FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

BRB

.LONG TERM...
THANKS TO LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL HELP TO KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TOMORROW. SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT BACK OUT OF THE SOUTH BY THURSDAY EVENING
AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT BACKDOORS INTO THE PANHANDLES LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SINCE THIS WILL BE A GLANCING
BLOW WITH MUCH COLDER AIR FURTHER EAST WE WILL ONLY SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES KNOCKED DOWN A HANDFUL OF DEGREES. SOME OF THIS COOLER
AIR FILTERS INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES ON SATURDAY TO KEEP HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 50S WHILE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST WINDS ALLOW THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES WARM INTO THE MID 60S. MODELS HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT
THESE CHANCES SEEM TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AS THEY WILL
LIKELY BE MOISTURE STARVED.

NEXT WEEK WILL START OUT MUCH THE SAME WITH WEAK COLD FRONTS MOVING
THROUGH BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE SETTLE ON A SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS ON THE RISE YET
AGAIN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONGOING ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS DECREASE AND HUMIDITIES
IMPROVE. A SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD WILL ALLOW A
SLIGHT NORTHWESTERLY SHIFT TO THE WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24-HOURS. SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TOMORROW BUT
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF LESS THAN 20 PERCENT WILL BE LIKELY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. HOWEVER...20-FT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH TO PROHIBIT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A
SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL HELP TO LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY FOR THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLES AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DIP CLOSE TO 20 PERCENT.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING NEAR 20 PERCENT AND
20-FT WINDS NEAR 15 MPH.

LOOKING JUST BEYOND THE 7 DAY FORECAST WE COULD BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER
ROUND OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AROUND THE THURSDAY
TIMEFRAME. MUCH CAN CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN BUT WE COULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN FIRE BEHAVIOR SHOULD FORECAST MODELS VERIFY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                34  66  33  66  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  30  62  29  61  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              32  66  31  60  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  36  66  36  64  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              31  66  30  68  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  32  67  32  68  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               36  65  33  67  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 30  67  30  64  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  32  66  31  62  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                31  67  31  69  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                32  61  32  62  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   34  61  34  62  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                35  63  32  65  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              36  63  33  67  31 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF SMITH...
     DONLEY...GRAY...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...WHEELER.

OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/14





000
FXUS64 KAMA 101951
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
151 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM... (THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT)

LATEST SURFACE OBS SHOW A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH
ORIENTED FROM JUST NORTH OF GUYMON TO JUST NORTH OF DALHART.
TEMPERATURE DISCONTINUITY ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY IS NEGLIGABLE.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS
AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON AND DEEP MIXING HAS CAUSED RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES TO FALL TO UNDER 20 PERCENT AT MOST LOCATIONS LEADING TO
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS BEEN MARGINAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH 6 PM.

THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC LATER
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR WILL FILTER IN. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A BLEND OF SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE WITH SLIGHT WEIGHT TOWARD THE PREVIOUS DAY LOW TEMPERATURE
GRID WAS USED FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE AFD WILL BE SENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

BRB

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

AVIATION... /FOR THE 18Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY AT KAMA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING EARLY THIS
EVENING. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT KDHT AND KGUY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT THIS EVENING. NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY THIS EVENING AT
KGUY AND KDHT AND BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AT KAMA.

BRB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES BY LATE TODAY
WITH A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY
COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PANHANDLES WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTER A BRIEF RETURN TO SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE
PANHANDLES FROM THE NORTH AND EAST SATURDAY WITH A LEE SURFACE LOW
AND TROUGH DEVELOPING WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE SATURDAY.
DRY AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES PREVAILS TODAY THROUGH THE END OF
THIS WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD BY THIS WEEKEND OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND ROCKIES. THE RIDGE FORECAST TO BREAK
DOWN AND THEN MOVE EAST BY SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS
BACK OVER THE WESTERN STATES AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
LOTS OF CONCERNS ABOUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY.
LOOKING AT THE ECMWF...850 MB THERMAL RIDGE FORECAST BY 00Z THURSDAY
ACROSS ALL OF THE PANHANDLES BUT FAVORING THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF FORECASTING THE STRONGEST 700 MB WINDS OF 20
TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE GFS FORECASTING
THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE IN ROUGHLY THE SAME LOCATION BY 00Z
THURSDAY...OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BUT MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
AND WESTERN SECTIONS. THE GFS ALSO KEEPS THE STRONGEST 700 MB WINDS
OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH THE
HIGHEST WINDS AROUND 40 KNOTS OVER OKLAHOMA AND AROUND THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 70S TODAY...WITH THE
FORECAST MAX TEMP AT AMARILLO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT...CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON.

SEEING AN INCREASE IN FIRE ACTIVITY OVER PAST SEVERAL DAYS/COUPLE OF
WEEKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND ERC VALUES HAVE INCREASED AS OF
TUESDAY TO 52 AT CEDAR RAWS...51 AT BOOTLEG RAWS AND 47 AT THE
WHEELER RAWS. 1-HOUR FMC/S HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND 3 TO 4 PERCENT.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE 20 FOOT WINDS NOT EXPECTED
TO REACH 20 MPH. THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE SHOULD SEE THE LIGHTEST 20
FOOT WIND SPEEDS...WITH MAINLY LESS THAN 15 MPH EXPECTED.

NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AND ALSO NEXT TUESDAY...AS EITHER THE 20
FOOT WINDS WILL BE TOO LIGHT OR THE MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TOO
HIGH. NEXT MONDAY COULD POSSIBLY SEE A RETURN TO ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
SECTIONS...AS 20 FOOT WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 15 MPH AND MINIMUM
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES FALL TO NEAR 20 PERCENT OR 15 TO 20 PERCENT.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF SMITH...
     DONLEY...GRAY...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...WHEELER.

OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/14





000
FXUS64 KAMA 101721
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1121 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION... /FOR THE 18Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY AT KAMA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING EARLY THIS
EVENING. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT KDHT AND KGUY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT THIS EVENING. NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY THIS EVENING AT
KGUY AND KDHT AND BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AT KAMA.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES BY LATE TODAY
WITH A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY
COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PANHANDLES WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTER A BRIEF RETURN TO SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE
PANHANDLES FROM THE NORTH AND EAST SATURDAY WITH A LEE SURFACE LOW
AND TROUGH DEVELOPING WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE SATURDAY.
DRY AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES PREVAILS TODAY THROUGH THE END OF
THIS WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD BY THIS WEEKEND OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND ROCKIES. THE RIDGE FORECAST TO BREAK
DOWN AND THEN MOVE EAST BY SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS
BACK OVER THE WESTERN STATES AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
LOTS OF CONCERNS ABOUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY.
LOOKING AT THE ECMWF...850 MB THERMAL RIDGE FORECAST BY 00Z THURSDAY
ACROSS ALL OF THE PANHANDLES BUT FAVORING THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF FORECASTING THE STRONGEST 700 MB WINDS OF 20
TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE GFS FORECASTING
THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE IN ROUGHLY THE SAME LOCATION BY 00Z
THURSDAY...OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BUT MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
AND WESTERN SECTIONS. THE GFS ALSO KEEPS THE STRONGEST 700 MB WINDS
OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH THE
HIGHEST WINDS AROUND 40 KNOTS OVER OKLAHOMA AND AROUND THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 70S TODAY...WITH THE
FORECAST MAX TEMP AT AMARILLO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT...CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON.

SEEING AN INCREASE IN FIRE ACTIVITY OVER PAST SEVERAL DAYS/COUPLE OF
WEEKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND ERC VALUES HAVE INCREASED AS OF
TUESDAY TO 52 AT CEDAR RAWS...51 AT BOOTLEG RAWS AND 47 AT THE
WHEELER RAWS. 1-HOUR FMC/S HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND 3 TO 4 PERCENT.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE 20 FOOT WINDS NOT EXPECTED
TO REACH 20 MPH. THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE SHOULD SEE THE LIGHTEST 20
FOOT WIND SPEEDS...WITH MAINLY LESS THAN 15 MPH EXPECTED.

NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AND ALSO NEXT TUESDAY...AS EITHER THE 20
FOOT WINDS WILL BE TOO LIGHT OR THE MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TOO
HIGH. NEXT MONDAY COULD POSSIBLY SEE A RETURN TO ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
SECTIONS...AS 20 FOOT WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 15 MPH AND MINIMUM
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES FALL TO NEAR 20 PERCENT OR 15 TO 20 PERCENT.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF SMITH...
     DONLEY...GRAY...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...WHEELER.

OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/14





000
FXUS64 KAMA 101110 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
510 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A GENERALLY
CLEAR SKY PREVAILS.  WEST SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE AT KAMA...AND AT LESSER
SPEEDS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.  WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING
...SHIFTING SURFACE WINDS TO NORTH.  NO OVERNIGHT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS FORESEEN.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES BY LATE TODAY
WITH A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY
COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PANHANDLES WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTER A BRIEF RETURN TO SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE
PANHANDLES FROM THE NORTH AND EAST SATURDAY WITH A LEE SURFACE LOW
AND TROUGH DEVELOPING WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE SATURDAY.
DRY AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES PREVAILS TODAY THROUGH THE END OF
THIS WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD BY THIS WEEKEND OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND ROCKIES. THE RIDGE FORECAST TO BREAK
DOWN AND THEN MOVE EAST BY SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS
BACK OVER THE WESTERN STATES AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
LOTS OF CONCERNS ABOUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY.
LOOKING AT THE ECMWF...850 MB THERMAL RIDGE FORECAST BY 00Z THURSDAY
ACROSS ALL OF THE PANHANDLES BUT FAVORING THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF FORECASTING THE STRONGEST 700 MB WINDS OF 20
TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE GFS FORECASTING
THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE IN ROUGHLY THE SAME LOCATION BY 00Z
THURSDAY...OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BUT MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
AND WESTERN SECTIONS. THE GFS ALSO KEEPS THE STRONGEST 700 MB WINDS
OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH THE
HIGHEST WINDS AROUND 40 KNOTS OVER OKLAHOMA AND AROUND THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 70S TODAY...WITH THE
FORECAST MAX TEMP AT AMARILLO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT...CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON.

SEEING AN INCREASE IN FIRE ACTIVITY OVER PAST SEVERAL DAYS/COUPLE OF
WEEKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND ERC VALUES HAVE INCREASED AS OF
TUESDAY TO 52 AT CEDAR RAWS...51 AT BOOTLEG RAWS AND 47 AT THE
WHEELER RAWS. 1-HOUR FMC/S HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND 3 TO 4 PERCENT.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE 20 FOOT WINDS NOT EXPECTED
TO REACH 20 MPH. THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE SHOULD SEE THE LIGHTEST 20
FOOT WIND SPEEDS...WITH MAINLY LESS THAN 15 MPH EXPECTED.

NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AND ALSO NEXT TUESDAY...AS EITHER THE 20
FOOT WINDS WILL BE TOO LIGHT OR THE MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TOO
HIGH. NEXT MONDAY COULD POSSIBLY SEE A RETURN TO ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
SECTIONS...AS 20 FOOT WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 15 MPH AND MINIMUM
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES FALL TO NEAR 20 PERCENT OR 15 TO 20 PERCENT.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                74  33  67  33  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  75  29  61  30  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              77  31  66  32  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  76  36  65  36  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              76  31  68  31  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  75  32  68  32  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               77  36  65  33  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 77  28  67  29  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  78  30  66  30  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                75  32  68  31  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                78  30  60  31  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   75  33  61  34  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                78  36  63  32  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              78  37  63  34  66 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...
     DEAF SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...
     WHEELER.

OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/11





000
FXUS64 KAMA 100958
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
358 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES BY LATE TODAY
WITH A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY
COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PANHANDLES WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTER A BRIEF RETURN TO SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE
PANHANDLES FROM THE NORTH AND EAST SATURDAY WITH A LEE SURFACE LOW
AND TROUGH DEVELOPING WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE SATURDAY.
DRY AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES PREVAILS TODAY THROUGH THE END OF
THIS WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD BY THIS WEEKEND OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND ROCKIES. THE RIDGE FORECAST TO BREAK
DOWN AND THEN MOVE EAST BY SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS
BACK OVER THE WESTERN STATES AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOTS OF CONCERNS ABOUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY.
LOOKING AT THE ECMWF...850 MB THERMAL RIDGE FORECAST BY 00Z THURSDAY
ACROSS ALL OF THE PANHANDLES BUT FAVORING THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF FORECASTING THE STRONGEST 700 MB WINDS OF 20
TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE GFS FORECASTING
THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE IN ROUGHLY THE SAME LOCATION BY 00Z
THURSDAY...OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BUT MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
AND WESTERN SECTIONS. THE GFS ALSO KEEPS THE STRONGEST 700 MB WINDS
OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH THE
HIGHEST WINDS AROUND 40 KNOTS OVER OKLAHOMA AND AROUND THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 70S TODAY...WITH THE
FORECAST MAX TEMP AT AMARILLO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT...CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON.

SEEING AN INCREASE IN FIRE ACTIVITY OVER PAST SEVERAL DAYS/COUPLE OF
WEEKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND ERC VALUES HAVE INCREASED AS OF
TUESDAY TO 52 AT CEDAR RAWS...51 AT BOOTLEG RAWS AND 47 AT THE
WHEELER RAWS. 1-HOUR FMC/S HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND 3 TO 4 PERCENT.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE 20 FOOT WINDS NOT EXPECTED
TO REACH 20 MPH. THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE SHOULD SEE THE LIGHTEST 20
FOOT WIND SPEEDS...WITH MAINLY LESS THAN 15 MPH EXPECTED.

NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AND ALSO NEXT TUESDAY...AS EITHER THE 20
FOOT WINDS WILL BE TOO LIGHT OR THE MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TOO
HIGH. NEXT MONDAY COULD POSSIBLY SEE A RETURN TO ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
SECTIONS...AS 20 FOOT WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 15 MPH AND MINIMUM
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES FALL TO NEAR 20 PERCENT OR 15 TO 20 PERCENT.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                74  33  67  33  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  75  29  61  30  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              77  31  66  32  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  76  36  65  36  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              76  31  68  31  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  75  32  68  32  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               77  36  65  33  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 77  28  67  29  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  78  30  66  30  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                75  32  68  31  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                78  30  60  31  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   75  33  61  34  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                78  36  63  32  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              78  37  63  34  66 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...
     DEAF SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...
     WHEELER.

OK...NONE.

&&

$$

3/11





000
FXUS64 KAMA 100035
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
635 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...VERY DRY CONDITIONS EXISTS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND THIS
WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH WILL PROVIDE GUSTY WSW WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUATION OF
VERY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
CHALLENGES FOR THIS FORECAST ARE WINDS AND RH FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS TOMORROW (SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW)...AND
TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN
WILL GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFY WITH A TREND TOWARD HIGHER MID LEVEL HEIGHTS
AS WESTERN RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD. MEANWHILE WEAK PERTURBATIONS
IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL OCCASIONALLY FORCE WEAK COLD
FRONTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. NEITHER OF THESE HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
COLD AIR MASS BEHIND THEM AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

THE COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES...CLEAR SKIES/FULL
INSOLATION...AND DOWNSLOPE SURFACE FLOW WILL RESULT IN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. MOST OF THE RAW AND STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
THE RECORD HIGH FOR FEBRUARY 10TH IS 82 AT AMARILLO...84 AT
BORGER...AND 80 AT DALHART...ALL OCCURRED IN 1962.

THE FIRST WEAK SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT COMBINATION WILL ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS
IS STILL NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. BY THIS
TIME...PERSISTENT TROUGHING WILL STILL BE PRESENT IN THE EAST WITH
WESTERN RIDGING PLACING OUR AREA IN MEAN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. BY
FRIDAY THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL BE CLOSER ALTHOUGH ITS AXIS WILL STILL
BE POSITIONED JUST WEST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER
SOME BY FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT MAY PUSH A
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA CAUSING
A FAIRLY TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH
COOLER POST FRONTAL AIR MASS INFILTRATING IN THE NORTHEAST. THE
RIDGE WILL QUICKLY FLATTEN AND THE FLOW WILL BECOME QUASI-ZONAL LATE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH CROSS-MOUNTAIN FLOW INCREASING CIRRUS WILL
PROBABLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE
AREA. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ALL QUITE DIFFERENT IN TIMING
AND AMPLITUDE. IN EITHER CASE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER AND RIDGING STRENGTHENS UPON THE DEPARTURE OF THIS SHORTWAVE
SO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BRB

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT AT MOST LOCATIONS FOR
AT LEAST A FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WIND REMAINS
MARGINAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
AND WIND SPEEDS NEAR THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER INDICATE NEAR
CRITERIA. WE WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE FOR
CRITICAL CONDITIONS WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
DALHART TO PAMPA TO WELLINGTON IF THEY DO OCCUR. MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE AREA SHOULD SEE SUFFICENT 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS THAT WHEN COMBINED
WITH EXPECTED LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CAUSE
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

MJG





000
FXUS64 KAMA 100035
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
635 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...VERY DRY CONDITIONS EXISTS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND THIS
WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH WILL PROVIDE GUSTY WSW WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUATION OF
VERY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
CHALLENGES FOR THIS FORECAST ARE WINDS AND RH FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS TOMORROW (SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW)...AND
TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN
WILL GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFY WITH A TREND TOWARD HIGHER MID LEVEL HEIGHTS
AS WESTERN RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD. MEANWHILE WEAK PERTURBATIONS
IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL OCCASIONALLY FORCE WEAK COLD
FRONTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. NEITHER OF THESE HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
COLD AIR MASS BEHIND THEM AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

THE COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES...CLEAR SKIES/FULL
INSOLATION...AND DOWNSLOPE SURFACE FLOW WILL RESULT IN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. MOST OF THE RAW AND STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
THE RECORD HIGH FOR FEBRUARY 10TH IS 82 AT AMARILLO...84 AT
BORGER...AND 80 AT DALHART...ALL OCCURRED IN 1962.

THE FIRST WEAK SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT COMBINATION WILL ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS
IS STILL NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. BY THIS
TIME...PERSISTENT TROUGHING WILL STILL BE PRESENT IN THE EAST WITH
WESTERN RIDGING PLACING OUR AREA IN MEAN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. BY
FRIDAY THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL BE CLOSER ALTHOUGH ITS AXIS WILL STILL
BE POSITIONED JUST WEST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER
SOME BY FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT MAY PUSH A
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA CAUSING
A FAIRLY TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH
COOLER POST FRONTAL AIR MASS INFILTRATING IN THE NORTHEAST. THE
RIDGE WILL QUICKLY FLATTEN AND THE FLOW WILL BECOME QUASI-ZONAL LATE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH CROSS-MOUNTAIN FLOW INCREASING CIRRUS WILL
PROBABLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE
AREA. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ALL QUITE DIFFERENT IN TIMING
AND AMPLITUDE. IN EITHER CASE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER AND RIDGING STRENGTHENS UPON THE DEPARTURE OF THIS SHORTWAVE
SO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BRB

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT AT MOST LOCATIONS FOR
AT LEAST A FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WIND REMAINS
MARGINAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
AND WIND SPEEDS NEAR THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER INDICATE NEAR
CRITERIA. WE WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE FOR
CRITICAL CONDITIONS WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
DALHART TO PAMPA TO WELLINGTON IF THEY DO OCCUR. MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE AREA SHOULD SEE SUFFICENT 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS THAT WHEN COMBINED
WITH EXPECTED LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CAUSE
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

MJG




000
FXUS64 KAMA 100035
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
635 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...VERY DRY CONDITIONS EXISTS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND THIS
WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH WILL PROVIDE GUSTY WSW WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUATION OF
VERY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
CHALLENGES FOR THIS FORECAST ARE WINDS AND RH FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS TOMORROW (SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW)...AND
TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN
WILL GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFY WITH A TREND TOWARD HIGHER MID LEVEL HEIGHTS
AS WESTERN RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD. MEANWHILE WEAK PERTURBATIONS
IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL OCCASIONALLY FORCE WEAK COLD
FRONTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. NEITHER OF THESE HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
COLD AIR MASS BEHIND THEM AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

THE COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES...CLEAR SKIES/FULL
INSOLATION...AND DOWNSLOPE SURFACE FLOW WILL RESULT IN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. MOST OF THE RAW AND STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
THE RECORD HIGH FOR FEBRUARY 10TH IS 82 AT AMARILLO...84 AT
BORGER...AND 80 AT DALHART...ALL OCCURRED IN 1962.

THE FIRST WEAK SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT COMBINATION WILL ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS
IS STILL NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. BY THIS
TIME...PERSISTENT TROUGHING WILL STILL BE PRESENT IN THE EAST WITH
WESTERN RIDGING PLACING OUR AREA IN MEAN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. BY
FRIDAY THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL BE CLOSER ALTHOUGH ITS AXIS WILL STILL
BE POSITIONED JUST WEST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER
SOME BY FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT MAY PUSH A
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA CAUSING
A FAIRLY TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH
COOLER POST FRONTAL AIR MASS INFILTRATING IN THE NORTHEAST. THE
RIDGE WILL QUICKLY FLATTEN AND THE FLOW WILL BECOME QUASI-ZONAL LATE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH CROSS-MOUNTAIN FLOW INCREASING CIRRUS WILL
PROBABLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE
AREA. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ALL QUITE DIFFERENT IN TIMING
AND AMPLITUDE. IN EITHER CASE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER AND RIDGING STRENGTHENS UPON THE DEPARTURE OF THIS SHORTWAVE
SO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BRB

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT AT MOST LOCATIONS FOR
AT LEAST A FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WIND REMAINS
MARGINAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
AND WIND SPEEDS NEAR THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER INDICATE NEAR
CRITERIA. WE WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE FOR
CRITICAL CONDITIONS WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
DALHART TO PAMPA TO WELLINGTON IF THEY DO OCCUR. MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE AREA SHOULD SEE SUFFICENT 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS THAT WHEN COMBINED
WITH EXPECTED LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CAUSE
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

MJG





000
FXUS64 KAMA 092053
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
253 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CHALLENGES FOR THIS FORECAST ARE WINDS AND RH FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS TOMORROW (SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW)...AND
TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN
WILL GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFY WITH A TREND TOWARD HIGHER MID LEVEL HEIGHTS
AS WESTERN RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD. MEANWHILE WEAK PERTURBATIONS
IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL OCCASIONALLY FORCE WEAK COLD
FRONTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. NEITHER OF THESE HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
COLD AIR MASS BEHIND THEM AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

THE COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES...CLEAR SKIES/FULL
INSOLATION...AND DOWNSLOPE SURFACE FLOW WILL RESULT IN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. MOST OF THE RAW AND STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
THE RECORD HIGH FOR FEBRUARY 10TH IS 82 AT AMARILLO...84 AT
BORGER...AND 80 AT DALHART...ALL OCCURRED IN 1962.

THE FIRST WEAK SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT COMBINATION WILL ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS
IS STILL NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. BY THIS
TIME...PERSISTENT TROUGHING WILL STILL BE PRESENT IN THE EAST WITH
WESTERN RIDGING PLACING OUR AREA IN MEAN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. BY
FRIDAY THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL BE CLOSER ALTHOUGH ITS AXIS WILL STILL
BE POSITIONED JUST WEST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER
SOME BY FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT MAY PUSH A
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA CAUSING
A FAIRLY TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH
COOLER POST FRONTAL AIR MASS INFILTRATING IN THE NORTHEAST. THE
RIDGE WILL QUICKLY FLATTEN AND THE FLOW WILL BECOME QUASI-ZONAL LATE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH CROSS-MOUNTAIN FLOW INCREASING CIRRUS WILL
PROBABLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE
AREA. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ALL QUITE DIFFERENT IN TIMING
AND AMPLITUDE. IN EITHER CASE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER AND RIDGING STRENGTHENS UPON THE DEPARTURE OF THIS SHORTWAVE
SO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BRB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT AT MOST LOCATIONS FOR
AT LEAST A FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WIND REMAINS
MARGINAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
AND WIND SPEEDS NEAR THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER INDICATE NEAR
CRITERIA. WE WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE FOR
CRITICAL CONDITIONS WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
DALHART TO PAMPA TO WELLINGTON IF THEY DO OCCUR. MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE AREA SHOULD SEE SUFFICENT 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS THAT WHEN COMBINED
WITH EXPECTED LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CAUSE
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

6/17





000
FXUS64 KAMA 092053
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
253 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CHALLENGES FOR THIS FORECAST ARE WINDS AND RH FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS TOMORROW (SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW)...AND
TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN
WILL GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFY WITH A TREND TOWARD HIGHER MID LEVEL HEIGHTS
AS WESTERN RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD. MEANWHILE WEAK PERTURBATIONS
IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL OCCASIONALLY FORCE WEAK COLD
FRONTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. NEITHER OF THESE HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
COLD AIR MASS BEHIND THEM AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

THE COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES...CLEAR SKIES/FULL
INSOLATION...AND DOWNSLOPE SURFACE FLOW WILL RESULT IN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. MOST OF THE RAW AND STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
THE RECORD HIGH FOR FEBRUARY 10TH IS 82 AT AMARILLO...84 AT
BORGER...AND 80 AT DALHART...ALL OCCURRED IN 1962.

THE FIRST WEAK SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT COMBINATION WILL ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS
IS STILL NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. BY THIS
TIME...PERSISTENT TROUGHING WILL STILL BE PRESENT IN THE EAST WITH
WESTERN RIDGING PLACING OUR AREA IN MEAN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. BY
FRIDAY THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL BE CLOSER ALTHOUGH ITS AXIS WILL STILL
BE POSITIONED JUST WEST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER
SOME BY FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT MAY PUSH A
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA CAUSING
A FAIRLY TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH
COOLER POST FRONTAL AIR MASS INFILTRATING IN THE NORTHEAST. THE
RIDGE WILL QUICKLY FLATTEN AND THE FLOW WILL BECOME QUASI-ZONAL LATE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH CROSS-MOUNTAIN FLOW INCREASING CIRRUS WILL
PROBABLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE
AREA. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ALL QUITE DIFFERENT IN TIMING
AND AMPLITUDE. IN EITHER CASE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER AND RIDGING STRENGTHENS UPON THE DEPARTURE OF THIS SHORTWAVE
SO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BRB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT AT MOST LOCATIONS FOR
AT LEAST A FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WIND REMAINS
MARGINAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
AND WIND SPEEDS NEAR THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER INDICATE NEAR
CRITERIA. WE WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE FOR
CRITICAL CONDITIONS WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
DALHART TO PAMPA TO WELLINGTON IF THEY DO OCCUR. MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE AREA SHOULD SEE SUFFICENT 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS THAT WHEN COMBINED
WITH EXPECTED LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CAUSE
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

6/17




000
FXUS64 KAMA 092053
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
253 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CHALLENGES FOR THIS FORECAST ARE WINDS AND RH FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS TOMORROW (SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW)...AND
TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN
WILL GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFY WITH A TREND TOWARD HIGHER MID LEVEL HEIGHTS
AS WESTERN RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD. MEANWHILE WEAK PERTURBATIONS
IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL OCCASIONALLY FORCE WEAK COLD
FRONTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. NEITHER OF THESE HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
COLD AIR MASS BEHIND THEM AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

THE COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES...CLEAR SKIES/FULL
INSOLATION...AND DOWNSLOPE SURFACE FLOW WILL RESULT IN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. MOST OF THE RAW AND STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
THE RECORD HIGH FOR FEBRUARY 10TH IS 82 AT AMARILLO...84 AT
BORGER...AND 80 AT DALHART...ALL OCCURRED IN 1962.

THE FIRST WEAK SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT COMBINATION WILL ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS
IS STILL NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. BY THIS
TIME...PERSISTENT TROUGHING WILL STILL BE PRESENT IN THE EAST WITH
WESTERN RIDGING PLACING OUR AREA IN MEAN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. BY
FRIDAY THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL BE CLOSER ALTHOUGH ITS AXIS WILL STILL
BE POSITIONED JUST WEST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER
SOME BY FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT MAY PUSH A
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA CAUSING
A FAIRLY TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH
COOLER POST FRONTAL AIR MASS INFILTRATING IN THE NORTHEAST. THE
RIDGE WILL QUICKLY FLATTEN AND THE FLOW WILL BECOME QUASI-ZONAL LATE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH CROSS-MOUNTAIN FLOW INCREASING CIRRUS WILL
PROBABLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE
AREA. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ALL QUITE DIFFERENT IN TIMING
AND AMPLITUDE. IN EITHER CASE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER AND RIDGING STRENGTHENS UPON THE DEPARTURE OF THIS SHORTWAVE
SO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BRB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT AT MOST LOCATIONS FOR
AT LEAST A FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WIND REMAINS
MARGINAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
AND WIND SPEEDS NEAR THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER INDICATE NEAR
CRITERIA. WE WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE FOR
CRITICAL CONDITIONS WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
DALHART TO PAMPA TO WELLINGTON IF THEY DO OCCUR. MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE AREA SHOULD SEE SUFFICENT 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS THAT WHEN COMBINED
WITH EXPECTED LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CAUSE
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

6/17





000
FXUS64 KAMA 091755 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1155 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT ALL SITES. BREEZY WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THEN
LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED BY 00Z...WITH WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOMING
CLOSER TO DUE WESTERLY BY 12Z.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY A FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AT BEST. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PANHANDLES BY TONIGHT ALLOW FOR
WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS
BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
HIGH-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN CONUS IS
PREDICTED TO DAMPEN SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.  BRIEF
NEAR-ZONAL FLOW ON SUNDAY EXPECTED TO LEAD TO MORE NORTHWEST FLOW
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

APART FROM A DAY OF INCREASED CLOUDS ON SUNDAY...A CLEAR SKY IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH NO OPPORTUNITIES SEEN FOR
PRECIPITATION.  ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY.  WEAK COLD FRONTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EARLY FRIDAY AND ON SUNDAY
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COLD CONDITIONS OR EXCESSIVE WINDS.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
BRIEFLY ELEVATED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE AS
DRY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP. ELEVATED TO POSSIBLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE AS DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.
EXCESSIVE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

6/17





000
FXUS64 KAMA 091133
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
533 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY A FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AT BEST. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PANHANDLES BY TONIGHT ALLOW FOR
WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS
BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
HIGH-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN CONUS IS
PREDICTED TO DAMPEN SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.  BRIEF
NEAR-ZONAL FLOW ON SUNDAY EXPECTED TO LEAD TO MORE NORTHWEST FLOW
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

APART FROM A DAY OF INCREASED CLOUDS ON SUNDAY...A CLEAR SKY IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH NO OPPORTUNITIES SEEN FOR
PRECIPITATION.  ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY.  WEAK COLD FRONTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EARLY FRIDAY AND ON SUNDAY
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COLD CONDITIONS OR EXCESSIVE WINDS.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
BRIEFLY ELEVATED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE AS
DRY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP. ELEVATED TO POSSIBLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE AS DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.
EXCESSIVE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/3





000
FXUS64 KAMA 091133
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
533 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY A FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AT BEST. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PANHANDLES BY TONIGHT ALLOW FOR
WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS
BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
HIGH-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN CONUS IS
PREDICTED TO DAMPEN SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.  BRIEF
NEAR-ZONAL FLOW ON SUNDAY EXPECTED TO LEAD TO MORE NORTHWEST FLOW
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

APART FROM A DAY OF INCREASED CLOUDS ON SUNDAY...A CLEAR SKY IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH NO OPPORTUNITIES SEEN FOR
PRECIPITATION.  ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY.  WEAK COLD FRONTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EARLY FRIDAY AND ON SUNDAY
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COLD CONDITIONS OR EXCESSIVE WINDS.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
BRIEFLY ELEVATED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE AS
DRY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP. ELEVATED TO POSSIBLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE AS DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.
EXCESSIVE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/3





000
FXUS64 KAMA 091133
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
533 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY A FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AT BEST. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PANHANDLES BY TONIGHT ALLOW FOR
WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS
BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
HIGH-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN CONUS IS
PREDICTED TO DAMPEN SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.  BRIEF
NEAR-ZONAL FLOW ON SUNDAY EXPECTED TO LEAD TO MORE NORTHWEST FLOW
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

APART FROM A DAY OF INCREASED CLOUDS ON SUNDAY...A CLEAR SKY IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH NO OPPORTUNITIES SEEN FOR
PRECIPITATION.  ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY.  WEAK COLD FRONTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EARLY FRIDAY AND ON SUNDAY
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COLD CONDITIONS OR EXCESSIVE WINDS.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
BRIEFLY ELEVATED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE AS
DRY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP. ELEVATED TO POSSIBLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE AS DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.
EXCESSIVE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/3




000
FXUS64 KAMA 090939
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
339 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
HIGH-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN CONUS IS
PREDICTED TO DAMPEN SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.  BRIEF
NEAR-ZONAL FLOW ON SUNDAY EXPECTED TO LEAD TO MORE NORTHWEST FLOW
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

APART FROM A DAY OF INCREASED CLOUDS ON SUNDAY...A CLEAR SKY IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH NO OPPORTUNITIES SEEN FOR
PRECIPITATION.  ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY.  WEAK COLD FRONTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EARLY FRIDAY AND ON SUNDAY
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COLD CONDITIONS OR EXCESSIVE WINDS.  03

COCKRELL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BRIEFLY ELEVATED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE AS
DRY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP. ELEVATED TO POSSIBLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE AS DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.
EXCESSIVE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                64  32  74  33  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  60  28  72  29  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              62  29  74  30  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  64  36  75  35  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              66  28  76  30  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  64  30  75  33  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               66  34  75  37  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 63  25  74  29  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  63  28  74  30  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                65  30  75  32  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                61  29  73  31  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   61  33  72  34  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                65  31  74  36  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              68  33  74  37  65 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/03





000
FXUS64 KAMA 090457 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1057 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY EVENING.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

UPDATE...
CRITERIA FOR BOTH ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
NO LONGER BEING MET SO HAVE ALLOWD RFW AND RFD TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL FEATURE
A STRONG RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP THE PANHANDLES BENEATH
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH ANY WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW
ONLY BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN
PLAINS STATES. A REX BLOCK PATTERN ALONG THE WEST COAST WAS NOTED IN
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS WILL HELP TO ENSURE
ONLY SLOW CHANGES TO THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SOME BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...BUT WEATHER
IMPACTS WILL BE THE SAME FOR OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED MOST DAYS THIS
WEEK AS COLDER AIR REMAINS LOCKED UP IN THE MIDWEST. AS THE RIDGE
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY EDGE INTO THE PANHANDLES AND KNOCK TEMPERATURES A LITTLE CLOSER
TO NORMAL. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ONE THING TO NOTE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THAT I UNDERCUT MOST
DEW POINT GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK TO MATCH RECENT TRENDS ON
DRIER DAYS. THIS SHOULD GET AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES CLOSER
TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN OBSERVING...IN ORDER TO HELP PLAN FOR ANY FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.

NF

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. THEN THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOONS THE REST OF THIS WEEK. THE LOWEST
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
WEDNESDAY /1O TO 15 PERCENT/...BUT WINDS MAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH
FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS. WIND SPEEDS IN GENERAL WILL BE THE ELEMENT
TO WATCH EACH DAY AS WE CONSIDER ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.

NF

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KAMA 090457 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1057 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY EVENING.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

UPDATE...
CRITERIA FOR BOTH ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
NO LONGER BEING MET SO HAVE ALLOWD RFW AND RFD TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL FEATURE
A STRONG RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP THE PANHANDLES BENEATH
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH ANY WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW
ONLY BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN
PLAINS STATES. A REX BLOCK PATTERN ALONG THE WEST COAST WAS NOTED IN
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS WILL HELP TO ENSURE
ONLY SLOW CHANGES TO THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SOME BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...BUT WEATHER
IMPACTS WILL BE THE SAME FOR OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED MOST DAYS THIS
WEEK AS COLDER AIR REMAINS LOCKED UP IN THE MIDWEST. AS THE RIDGE
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY EDGE INTO THE PANHANDLES AND KNOCK TEMPERATURES A LITTLE CLOSER
TO NORMAL. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ONE THING TO NOTE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THAT I UNDERCUT MOST
DEW POINT GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK TO MATCH RECENT TRENDS ON
DRIER DAYS. THIS SHOULD GET AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES CLOSER
TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN OBSERVING...IN ORDER TO HELP PLAN FOR ANY FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.

NF

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. THEN THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOONS THE REST OF THIS WEEK. THE LOWEST
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
WEDNESDAY /1O TO 15 PERCENT/...BUT WINDS MAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH
FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS. WIND SPEEDS IN GENERAL WILL BE THE ELEMENT
TO WATCH EACH DAY AS WE CONSIDER ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.

NF

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KAMA 090457 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1057 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY EVENING.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

UPDATE...
CRITERIA FOR BOTH ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
NO LONGER BEING MET SO HAVE ALLOWD RFW AND RFD TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL FEATURE
A STRONG RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP THE PANHANDLES BENEATH
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH ANY WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW
ONLY BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN
PLAINS STATES. A REX BLOCK PATTERN ALONG THE WEST COAST WAS NOTED IN
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS WILL HELP TO ENSURE
ONLY SLOW CHANGES TO THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SOME BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...BUT WEATHER
IMPACTS WILL BE THE SAME FOR OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED MOST DAYS THIS
WEEK AS COLDER AIR REMAINS LOCKED UP IN THE MIDWEST. AS THE RIDGE
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY EDGE INTO THE PANHANDLES AND KNOCK TEMPERATURES A LITTLE CLOSER
TO NORMAL. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ONE THING TO NOTE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THAT I UNDERCUT MOST
DEW POINT GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK TO MATCH RECENT TRENDS ON
DRIER DAYS. THIS SHOULD GET AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES CLOSER
TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN OBSERVING...IN ORDER TO HELP PLAN FOR ANY FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.

NF

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. THEN THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOONS THE REST OF THIS WEEK. THE LOWEST
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
WEDNESDAY /1O TO 15 PERCENT/...BUT WINDS MAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH
FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS. WIND SPEEDS IN GENERAL WILL BE THE ELEMENT
TO WATCH EACH DAY AS WE CONSIDER ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.

NF

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KAMA 090052 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
652 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
CRITERIA FOR BOTH ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
NO LONGER BEING MET SO HAVE ALLOWD RFW AND RFD TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL FEATURE
A STRONG RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP THE PANHANDLES BENEATH
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH ANY WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW
ONLY BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN
PLAINS STATES. A REX BLOCK PATTERN ALONG THE WEST COAST WAS NOTED IN
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS WILL HELP TO ENSURE
ONLY SLOW CHANGES TO THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SOME BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...BUT WEATHER
IMPACTS WILL BE THE SAME FOR OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED MOST DAYS THIS
WEEK AS COLDER AIR REMAINS LOCKED UP IN THE MIDWEST. AS THE RIDGE
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY EDGE INTO THE PANHANDLES AND KNOCK TEMPERATURES A LITTLE CLOSER
TO NORMAL. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ONE THING TO NOTE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THAT I UNDERCUT MOST
DEW POINT GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK TO MATCH RECENT TRENDS ON
DRIER DAYS. THIS SHOULD GET AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES CLOSER
TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN OBSERVING...IN ORDER TO HELP PLAN FOR ANY FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.

NF

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. THEN THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOONS THE REST OF THIS WEEK. THE LOWEST
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
WEDNESDAY /1O TO 15 PERCENT/...BUT WINDS MAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH
FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS. WIND SPEEDS IN GENERAL WILL BE THE ELEMENT
TO WATCH EACH DAY AS WE CONSIDER ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.

NF

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KAMA 082352 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
552 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL FEATURE
A STRONG RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP THE PANHANDLES BENEATH
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH ANY WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW
ONLY BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN
PLAINS STATES. A REX BLOCK PATTERN ALONG THE WEST COAST WAS NOTED IN
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS WILL HELP TO ENSURE
ONLY SLOW CHANGES TO THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SOME BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...BUT WEATHER
IMPACTS WILL BE THE SAME FOR OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED MOST DAYS THIS
WEEK AS COLDER AIR REMAINS LOCKED UP IN THE MIDWEST. AS THE RIDGE
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY EDGE INTO THE PANHANDLES AND KNOCK TEMPERATURES A LITTLE CLOSER
TO NORMAL. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ONE THING TO NOTE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THAT I UNDERCUT MOST
DEW POINT GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK TO MATCH RECENT TRENDS ON
DRIER DAYS. THIS SHOULD GET AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES CLOSER
TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN OBSERVING...IN ORDER TO HELP PLAN FOR ANY FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.

NF

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. THEN THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOONS THE REST OF THIS WEEK. THE LOWEST
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
WEDNESDAY /1O TO 15 PERCENT/...BUT WINDS MAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH
FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS. WIND SPEEDS IN GENERAL WILL BE THE ELEMENT
TO WATCH EACH DAY AS WE CONSIDER ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.

NF

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...WHEELER.

OK...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KAMA 082352 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
552 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL FEATURE
A STRONG RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP THE PANHANDLES BENEATH
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH ANY WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW
ONLY BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN
PLAINS STATES. A REX BLOCK PATTERN ALONG THE WEST COAST WAS NOTED IN
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS WILL HELP TO ENSURE
ONLY SLOW CHANGES TO THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SOME BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...BUT WEATHER
IMPACTS WILL BE THE SAME FOR OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED MOST DAYS THIS
WEEK AS COLDER AIR REMAINS LOCKED UP IN THE MIDWEST. AS THE RIDGE
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY EDGE INTO THE PANHANDLES AND KNOCK TEMPERATURES A LITTLE CLOSER
TO NORMAL. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ONE THING TO NOTE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THAT I UNDERCUT MOST
DEW POINT GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK TO MATCH RECENT TRENDS ON
DRIER DAYS. THIS SHOULD GET AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES CLOSER
TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN OBSERVING...IN ORDER TO HELP PLAN FOR ANY FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.

NF

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. THEN THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOONS THE REST OF THIS WEEK. THE LOWEST
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
WEDNESDAY /1O TO 15 PERCENT/...BUT WINDS MAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH
FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS. WIND SPEEDS IN GENERAL WILL BE THE ELEMENT
TO WATCH EACH DAY AS WE CONSIDER ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.

NF

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...WHEELER.

OK...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KAMA 082352 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
552 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL FEATURE
A STRONG RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP THE PANHANDLES BENEATH
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH ANY WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW
ONLY BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN
PLAINS STATES. A REX BLOCK PATTERN ALONG THE WEST COAST WAS NOTED IN
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS WILL HELP TO ENSURE
ONLY SLOW CHANGES TO THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SOME BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...BUT WEATHER
IMPACTS WILL BE THE SAME FOR OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED MOST DAYS THIS
WEEK AS COLDER AIR REMAINS LOCKED UP IN THE MIDWEST. AS THE RIDGE
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY EDGE INTO THE PANHANDLES AND KNOCK TEMPERATURES A LITTLE CLOSER
TO NORMAL. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ONE THING TO NOTE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THAT I UNDERCUT MOST
DEW POINT GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK TO MATCH RECENT TRENDS ON
DRIER DAYS. THIS SHOULD GET AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES CLOSER
TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN OBSERVING...IN ORDER TO HELP PLAN FOR ANY FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.

NF

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. THEN THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOONS THE REST OF THIS WEEK. THE LOWEST
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
WEDNESDAY /1O TO 15 PERCENT/...BUT WINDS MAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH
FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS. WIND SPEEDS IN GENERAL WILL BE THE ELEMENT
TO WATCH EACH DAY AS WE CONSIDER ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.

NF

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...WHEELER.

OK...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KAMA 082157
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
357 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL FEATURE
A STRONG RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP THE PANHANDLES BENEATH
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH ANY WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW
ONLY BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN
PLAINS STATES. A REX BLOCK PATTERN ALONG THE WEST COAST WAS NOTED IN
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS WILL HELP TO ENSURE
ONLY SLOW CHANGES TO THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SOME BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...BUT WEATHER
IMPACTS WILL BE THE SAME FOR OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED MOST DAYS THIS
WEEK AS COLDER AIR REMAINS LOCKED UP IN THE MIDWEST. AS THE RIDGE
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY EDGE INTO THE PANHANDLES AND KNOCK TEMPERATURES A LITTLE CLOSER
TO NORMAL. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ONE THING TO NOTE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THAT I UNDERCUT MOST
DEW POINT GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK TO MATCH RECENT TRENDS ON
DRIER DAYS. THIS SHOULD GET AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES CLOSER
TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN OBSERVING...IN ORDER TO HELP PLAN FOR ANY FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.

NF

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. THEN THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOONS THE REST OF THIS WEEK. THE LOWEST
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
WEDNESDAY /1O TO 15 PERCENT/...BUT WINDS MAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH
FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS. WIND SPEEDS IN GENERAL WILL BE THE ELEMENT
TO WATCH EACH DAY AS WE CONSIDER ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.

NF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                30  64  32  73  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  26  60  28  71  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              28  62  29  73  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  33  64  36  74  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              27  66  28  75  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  28  64  30  74  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               32  66  34  74  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 27  63  25  73  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  28  63  28  73  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                28  65  30  74  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                29  61  29  72  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   31  61  33  71  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                31  65  31  73  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              31  68  33  73  37 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...WHEELER.

OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/6





000
FXUS64 KAMA 081729
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1129 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.AVIATION... /FOR THE 18Z TAFS/
A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN NORTH-NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT KAMA AND KGUY.
LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT DALHART. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
WESTERLY THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

UPDATE...
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIVE COUNTIES IN THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE BASED ON TRENDS IN THE OBSERVATIONS. 12Z MORNING SOUNDING
SHOWED A SHALLOW VERY DRY LAYER AND AS MIXING HAS INCREASE DEW POINTS
HAVE RAPIDLY DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. AS I WRITE THIS THE DEW
POINT AT THE MCLEAN AND CLARENDON WEST TEXAS MESONET SITES ARE 2 AND
0 RESPECTIVELY. MEMPHIS MESONET IS -3. AS MIXING DEEPENS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO MORE MOIST AIR PER THE 12Z SOUNDING...DOWNWARD TRENDS
IN THE DEW POINTS SHOULD STOP AND SLIGHT INCREASE IS POSSIBLE.
NEVERTHELESS THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND RH SHOULD STILL REACH RED
FLAG CRITERIA UNTIL EARLY EVENING.

BRB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE STRONGEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES TODAY WHERE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE THE
TIGHTEST. 20 TO 30 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS THE EAST. SOMEWHAT LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE FOUND FURTHER
TO THE WEST. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN.

A RIDGE/TROUGH UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE U.S.
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THE RIDGE OUT WEST WILL START TO BREAK DOWN
SOME BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE MEAN RIDGE. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS
STATES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND...BUT IT SHOULD BE MOISTURE STARVED...SO
WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS
FORECAST...WITH THE WARMEST DAY ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY WHICH WILL KNOCK HIGH TEMPERATURES
BACK BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES...BUT READINGS WILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES TODAY...GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM TURPIN OKLAHOMA TO
CLARENDON TEXAS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 15 TO
20 PERCENT RANGE IN THIS AREA. THE STRONGEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
ALSO BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES TODAY. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE IF
WINDS CAN INCREASE ENOUGH. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE
BELOW 20 PERCENT...BUT THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL
BE.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...WHEELER.

OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/6





000
FXUS64 KAMA 081729
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1129 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.AVIATION... /FOR THE 18Z TAFS/
A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN NORTH-NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT KAMA AND KGUY.
LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT DALHART. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
WESTERLY THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

UPDATE...
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIVE COUNTIES IN THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE BASED ON TRENDS IN THE OBSERVATIONS. 12Z MORNING SOUNDING
SHOWED A SHALLOW VERY DRY LAYER AND AS MIXING HAS INCREASE DEW POINTS
HAVE RAPIDLY DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. AS I WRITE THIS THE DEW
POINT AT THE MCLEAN AND CLARENDON WEST TEXAS MESONET SITES ARE 2 AND
0 RESPECTIVELY. MEMPHIS MESONET IS -3. AS MIXING DEEPENS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO MORE MOIST AIR PER THE 12Z SOUNDING...DOWNWARD TRENDS
IN THE DEW POINTS SHOULD STOP AND SLIGHT INCREASE IS POSSIBLE.
NEVERTHELESS THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND RH SHOULD STILL REACH RED
FLAG CRITERIA UNTIL EARLY EVENING.

BRB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE STRONGEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES TODAY WHERE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE THE
TIGHTEST. 20 TO 30 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS THE EAST. SOMEWHAT LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE FOUND FURTHER
TO THE WEST. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN.

A RIDGE/TROUGH UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE U.S.
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THE RIDGE OUT WEST WILL START TO BREAK DOWN
SOME BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE MEAN RIDGE. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS
STATES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND...BUT IT SHOULD BE MOISTURE STARVED...SO
WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS
FORECAST...WITH THE WARMEST DAY ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY WHICH WILL KNOCK HIGH TEMPERATURES
BACK BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES...BUT READINGS WILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES TODAY...GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM TURPIN OKLAHOMA TO
CLARENDON TEXAS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 15 TO
20 PERCENT RANGE IN THIS AREA. THE STRONGEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
ALSO BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES TODAY. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE IF
WINDS CAN INCREASE ENOUGH. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE
BELOW 20 PERCENT...BUT THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL
BE.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...WHEELER.

OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/6




000
FXUS64 KAMA 081729
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1129 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.AVIATION... /FOR THE 18Z TAFS/
A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN NORTH-NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT KAMA AND KGUY.
LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT DALHART. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
WESTERLY THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

UPDATE...
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIVE COUNTIES IN THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE BASED ON TRENDS IN THE OBSERVATIONS. 12Z MORNING SOUNDING
SHOWED A SHALLOW VERY DRY LAYER AND AS MIXING HAS INCREASE DEW POINTS
HAVE RAPIDLY DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. AS I WRITE THIS THE DEW
POINT AT THE MCLEAN AND CLARENDON WEST TEXAS MESONET SITES ARE 2 AND
0 RESPECTIVELY. MEMPHIS MESONET IS -3. AS MIXING DEEPENS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO MORE MOIST AIR PER THE 12Z SOUNDING...DOWNWARD TRENDS
IN THE DEW POINTS SHOULD STOP AND SLIGHT INCREASE IS POSSIBLE.
NEVERTHELESS THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND RH SHOULD STILL REACH RED
FLAG CRITERIA UNTIL EARLY EVENING.

BRB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE STRONGEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES TODAY WHERE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE THE
TIGHTEST. 20 TO 30 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS THE EAST. SOMEWHAT LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE FOUND FURTHER
TO THE WEST. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN.

A RIDGE/TROUGH UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE U.S.
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THE RIDGE OUT WEST WILL START TO BREAK DOWN
SOME BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE MEAN RIDGE. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS
STATES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND...BUT IT SHOULD BE MOISTURE STARVED...SO
WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS
FORECAST...WITH THE WARMEST DAY ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY WHICH WILL KNOCK HIGH TEMPERATURES
BACK BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES...BUT READINGS WILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES TODAY...GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM TURPIN OKLAHOMA TO
CLARENDON TEXAS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 15 TO
20 PERCENT RANGE IN THIS AREA. THE STRONGEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
ALSO BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES TODAY. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE IF
WINDS CAN INCREASE ENOUGH. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE
BELOW 20 PERCENT...BUT THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL
BE.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...WHEELER.

OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/6





000
FXUS64 KAMA 081709
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1109 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIVE COUNTIES IN THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE BASED ON TRENDS IN THE OBSERVATIONS. 12Z MORNING SOUNDING
SHOWED A SHALLOW VERY DRY LAYER AND AS MIXING HAS INCREASE DEW POINTS
HAVE RAPIDLY DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. AS I WRITE THIS THE DEW
POINT AT THE MCLEAN AND CLARENDON WEST TEXAS MESONET SITES ARE 2 AND
0 RESPECTIVELY. MEMPHIS MESONET IS -3. AS MIXING DEEPENS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO MORE MOIST AIR PER THE 12Z SOUNDING...DOWNWARD TRENDS
IN THE DEW POINTS SHOULD STOP AND SLIGHT INCREASE IS POSSIBLE.
NEVERTHELESS THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND RH SHOULD STILL REACH RED
FLAG CRITERIA UNTIL EARLY EVENING.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD DOWN INTO THE PANHANDLES TODAY AND TONIGHT
WHILE A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES WITH NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
TODAY...THEN BACKING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST BY 00Z TUESDAY
AND DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE STRONGEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES TODAY WHERE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE THE
TIGHTEST. 20 TO 30 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS THE EAST. SOMEWHAT LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE FOUND FURTHER
TO THE WEST. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN.

A RIDGE/TROUGH UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE U.S.
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THE RIDGE OUT WEST WILL START TO BREAK DOWN
SOME BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE MEAN RIDGE. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS
STATES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND...BUT IT SHOULD BE MOISTURE STARVED...SO
WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS
FORECAST...WITH THE WARMEST DAY ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY WHICH WILL KNOCK HIGH TEMPERATURES
BACK BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES...BUT READINGS WILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES TODAY...GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM TURPIN OKLAHOMA TO
CLARENDON TEXAS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 15 TO
20 PERCENT RANGE IN THIS AREA. THE STRONGEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
ALSO BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES TODAY. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE IF
WINDS CAN INCREASE ENOUGH. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE
BELOW 20 PERCENT...BUT THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL
BE.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...WHEELER.

OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/6





000
FXUS64 KAMA 081709
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1109 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIVE COUNTIES IN THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE BASED ON TRENDS IN THE OBSERVATIONS. 12Z MORNING SOUNDING
SHOWED A SHALLOW VERY DRY LAYER AND AS MIXING HAS INCREASE DEW POINTS
HAVE RAPIDLY DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. AS I WRITE THIS THE DEW
POINT AT THE MCLEAN AND CLARENDON WEST TEXAS MESONET SITES ARE 2 AND
0 RESPECTIVELY. MEMPHIS MESONET IS -3. AS MIXING DEEPENS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO MORE MOIST AIR PER THE 12Z SOUNDING...DOWNWARD TRENDS
IN THE DEW POINTS SHOULD STOP AND SLIGHT INCREASE IS POSSIBLE.
NEVERTHELESS THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND RH SHOULD STILL REACH RED
FLAG CRITERIA UNTIL EARLY EVENING.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD DOWN INTO THE PANHANDLES TODAY AND TONIGHT
WHILE A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES WITH NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
TODAY...THEN BACKING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST BY 00Z TUESDAY
AND DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE STRONGEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES TODAY WHERE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE THE
TIGHTEST. 20 TO 30 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS THE EAST. SOMEWHAT LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE FOUND FURTHER
TO THE WEST. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN.

A RIDGE/TROUGH UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE U.S.
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THE RIDGE OUT WEST WILL START TO BREAK DOWN
SOME BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE MEAN RIDGE. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS
STATES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND...BUT IT SHOULD BE MOISTURE STARVED...SO
WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS
FORECAST...WITH THE WARMEST DAY ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY WHICH WILL KNOCK HIGH TEMPERATURES
BACK BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES...BUT READINGS WILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES TODAY...GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM TURPIN OKLAHOMA TO
CLARENDON TEXAS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 15 TO
20 PERCENT RANGE IN THIS AREA. THE STRONGEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
ALSO BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES TODAY. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE IF
WINDS CAN INCREASE ENOUGH. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE
BELOW 20 PERCENT...BUT THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL
BE.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...WHEELER.

OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/6




000
FXUS64 KAMA 081709
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1109 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIVE COUNTIES IN THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE BASED ON TRENDS IN THE OBSERVATIONS. 12Z MORNING SOUNDING
SHOWED A SHALLOW VERY DRY LAYER AND AS MIXING HAS INCREASE DEW POINTS
HAVE RAPIDLY DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. AS I WRITE THIS THE DEW
POINT AT THE MCLEAN AND CLARENDON WEST TEXAS MESONET SITES ARE 2 AND
0 RESPECTIVELY. MEMPHIS MESONET IS -3. AS MIXING DEEPENS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO MORE MOIST AIR PER THE 12Z SOUNDING...DOWNWARD TRENDS
IN THE DEW POINTS SHOULD STOP AND SLIGHT INCREASE IS POSSIBLE.
NEVERTHELESS THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND RH SHOULD STILL REACH RED
FLAG CRITERIA UNTIL EARLY EVENING.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD DOWN INTO THE PANHANDLES TODAY AND TONIGHT
WHILE A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES WITH NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
TODAY...THEN BACKING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST BY 00Z TUESDAY
AND DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE STRONGEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES TODAY WHERE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE THE
TIGHTEST. 20 TO 30 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS THE EAST. SOMEWHAT LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE FOUND FURTHER
TO THE WEST. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN.

A RIDGE/TROUGH UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE U.S.
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THE RIDGE OUT WEST WILL START TO BREAK DOWN
SOME BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE MEAN RIDGE. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS
STATES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND...BUT IT SHOULD BE MOISTURE STARVED...SO
WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS
FORECAST...WITH THE WARMEST DAY ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY WHICH WILL KNOCK HIGH TEMPERATURES
BACK BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES...BUT READINGS WILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES TODAY...GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM TURPIN OKLAHOMA TO
CLARENDON TEXAS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 15 TO
20 PERCENT RANGE IN THIS AREA. THE STRONGEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
ALSO BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES TODAY. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE IF
WINDS CAN INCREASE ENOUGH. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE
BELOW 20 PERCENT...BUT THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL
BE.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...WHEELER.

OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/6





000
FXUS64 KAMA 081138
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
538 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD DOWN INTO THE PANHANDLES TODAY AND TONIGHT
WHILE A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES WITH NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
TODAY...THEN BACKING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST BY 00Z TUESDAY
AND DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE STRONGEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES TODAY WHERE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE THE
TIGHTEST. 20 TO 30 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS THE EAST. SOMEWHAT LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE FOUND FURTHER
TO THE WEST. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN.

A RIDGE/TROUGH UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE U.S.
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THE RIDGE OUT WEST WILL START TO BREAK DOWN
SOME BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE MEAN RIDGE. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS
STATES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND...BUT IT SHOULD BE MOISTURE STARVED...SO
WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS
FORECAST...WITH THE WARMEST DAY ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY WHICH WILL KNOCK HIGH TEMPERATURES
BACK BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES...BUT READINGS WILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES TODAY...GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM TURPIN OKLAHOMA TO
CLARENDON TEXAS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 15 TO
20 PERCENT RANGE IN THIS AREA. THE STRONGEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
ALSO BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES TODAY. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE IF
WINDS CAN INCREASE ENOUGH. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE
BELOW 20 PERCENT...BUT THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL
BE.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/15





000
FXUS64 KAMA 081138
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
538 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD DOWN INTO THE PANHANDLES TODAY AND TONIGHT
WHILE A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES WITH NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
TODAY...THEN BACKING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST BY 00Z TUESDAY
AND DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE STRONGEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES TODAY WHERE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE THE
TIGHTEST. 20 TO 30 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS THE EAST. SOMEWHAT LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE FOUND FURTHER
TO THE WEST. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN.

A RIDGE/TROUGH UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE U.S.
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THE RIDGE OUT WEST WILL START TO BREAK DOWN
SOME BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE MEAN RIDGE. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS
STATES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND...BUT IT SHOULD BE MOISTURE STARVED...SO
WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS
FORECAST...WITH THE WARMEST DAY ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY WHICH WILL KNOCK HIGH TEMPERATURES
BACK BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES...BUT READINGS WILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES TODAY...GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM TURPIN OKLAHOMA TO
CLARENDON TEXAS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 15 TO
20 PERCENT RANGE IN THIS AREA. THE STRONGEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
ALSO BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES TODAY. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE IF
WINDS CAN INCREASE ENOUGH. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE
BELOW 20 PERCENT...BUT THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL
BE.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/15




000
FXUS64 KAMA 081138
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
538 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD DOWN INTO THE PANHANDLES TODAY AND TONIGHT
WHILE A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES WITH NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
TODAY...THEN BACKING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST BY 00Z TUESDAY
AND DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE STRONGEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES TODAY WHERE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE THE
TIGHTEST. 20 TO 30 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS THE EAST. SOMEWHAT LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE FOUND FURTHER
TO THE WEST. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN.

A RIDGE/TROUGH UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE U.S.
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THE RIDGE OUT WEST WILL START TO BREAK DOWN
SOME BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE MEAN RIDGE. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS
STATES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND...BUT IT SHOULD BE MOISTURE STARVED...SO
WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS
FORECAST...WITH THE WARMEST DAY ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY WHICH WILL KNOCK HIGH TEMPERATURES
BACK BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES...BUT READINGS WILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES TODAY...GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM TURPIN OKLAHOMA TO
CLARENDON TEXAS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 15 TO
20 PERCENT RANGE IN THIS AREA. THE STRONGEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
ALSO BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES TODAY. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE IF
WINDS CAN INCREASE ENOUGH. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE
BELOW 20 PERCENT...BUT THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL
BE.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/15





000
FXUS64 KAMA 080833
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
233 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE STRONGEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES TODAY WHERE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE THE
TIGHTEST. 20 TO 30 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS THE EAST. SOMEWHAT LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE FOUND FURTHER
TO THE WEST. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN.

A RIDGE/TROUGH UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE U.S.
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THE RIDGE OUT WEST WILL START TO BREAK DOWN
SOME BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE MEAN RIDGE. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS
STATES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND...BUT IT SHOULD BE MOISTURE STARVED...SO
WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS
FORECAST...WITH THE WARMEST DAY ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY WHICH WILL KNOCK HIGH TEMPERATURES
BACK BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES...BUT READINGS WILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES TODAY...GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM TURPIN OKLAHOMA TO
CLARENDON TEXAS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 15 TO
20 PERCENT RANGE IN THIS AREA. THE STRONGEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
ALSO BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES TODAY. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE IF
WINDS CAN INCREASE ENOUGH. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE
BELOW 20 PERCENT...BUT THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL
BE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                53  29  65  30  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  50  25  61  25  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              52  27  60  28  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  55  32  64  33  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              57  25  67  26  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  54  27  65  28  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               55  30  66  32  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 55  26  64  26  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  52  27  63  28  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                54  25  65  27  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                50  29  62  29  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   51  30  62  31  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                53  30  66  30  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              55  30  69  30  74 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/15





000
FXUS64 KAMA 080446 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1046 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH
LATE MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO AROUND
15 TO 20 MPH BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES THAN 24 HOURS PRIOR. ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A
BROADENING/DEEPENING TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND WAS PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD. THE COMBINATION OF
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS HIGH AND GREAT
LAKES LOW AND RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL RESULT
IN WINDY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA...POSSIBLY
APPROACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD THROUGH MID WEEK MID LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES WILL OCCUR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM SIGNIFICANTLY IN
RESPONSE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND MANY
LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH 70 ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST WILL
DEAMPLIFY AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON FEATURES WITHIN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN. GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE BUT DIFFER IN THE DEGREE OF
AMPLIFICATION AND HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING. DRY WEATHER AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BRB

FIRE WEATHER...
CLEAR SKIES AND AFTERNOON HEATING/MIXING INTO FAST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WINDS OF 15 MPH OR GREATER ACROSS ROUGHLY
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE DEPTH OF MIXING SHOWN...MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT MONDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN TWO COLUMNS OF COUNTIES IN THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ALSO BEAVER COUNTY IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER HAVE RESULTED IN FAVORABLE FUELS FOR
RAPID FIRE GROWTH. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP.
BEYOND TOMORROW...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES COULD FALL TO NEAR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS...BUT WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER LIMITING THE THREAT. IF
WINDS ARE STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA MAY BE AT LEAST APPROACHED
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KAMA 072343 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
543 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO AROUND
15 TO 20 MPH BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES THAN 24 HOURS PRIOR. ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A
BROADENING/DEEPENING TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND WAS PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD. THE COMBINATION OF
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS HIGH AND GREAT
LAKES LOW AND RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL RESULT
IN WINDY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA...POSSIBLY
APPROACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD THROUGH MID WEEK MID LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES WILL OCCUR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM SIGNIFICANTLY IN
RESPONSE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND MANY
LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH 70 ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST WILL
DEAMPLIFY AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON FEATURES WITHIN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN. GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE BUT DIFFER IN THE DEGREE OF
AMPLIFICATION AND HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING. DRY WEATHER AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BRB

FIRE WEATHER...
CLEAR SKIES AND AFTERNOON HEATING/MIXING INTO FAST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WINDS OF 15 MPH OR GREATER ACROSS ROUGHLY
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE DEPTH OF MIXING SHOWN...MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT MONDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN TWO COLUMNS OF COUNTIES IN THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ALSO BEAVER COUNTY IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER HAVE RESULTED IN FAVORABLE FUELS FOR
RAPID FIRE GROWTH. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP.
BEYOND TOMORROW...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES COULD FALL TO NEAR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS...BUT WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER LIMITING THE THREAT. IF
WINDS ARE STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA MAY BE AT LEAST APPROACHED
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KAMA 072343 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
543 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO AROUND
15 TO 20 MPH BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES THAN 24 HOURS PRIOR. ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A
BROADENING/DEEPENING TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND WAS PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD. THE COMBINATION OF
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS HIGH AND GREAT
LAKES LOW AND RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL RESULT
IN WINDY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA...POSSIBLY
APPROACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD THROUGH MID WEEK MID LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES WILL OCCUR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM SIGNIFICANTLY IN
RESPONSE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND MANY
LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH 70 ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST WILL
DEAMPLIFY AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON FEATURES WITHIN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN. GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE BUT DIFFER IN THE DEGREE OF
AMPLIFICATION AND HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING. DRY WEATHER AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BRB

FIRE WEATHER...
CLEAR SKIES AND AFTERNOON HEATING/MIXING INTO FAST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WINDS OF 15 MPH OR GREATER ACROSS ROUGHLY
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE DEPTH OF MIXING SHOWN...MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT MONDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN TWO COLUMNS OF COUNTIES IN THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ALSO BEAVER COUNTY IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER HAVE RESULTED IN FAVORABLE FUELS FOR
RAPID FIRE GROWTH. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP.
BEYOND TOMORROW...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES COULD FALL TO NEAR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS...BUT WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER LIMITING THE THREAT. IF
WINDS ARE STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA MAY BE AT LEAST APPROACHED
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$




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